The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 220: Building a Super Team

Episode Date: February 1, 2018

Alan Wells joins the show to help deep dive the Tampa Bay Lightning, their impressive start to the season, and the Erik Karlsson trade rumours that have recently been gaining steam.  0:30 Everything going right in Tampa Bay 5:30 Kucherov and Stamkos feeding off of each other  9:45 Namestnikov as the 3rd wheel, and his next contract 13:30 Vasilevskiy as a front runner for the Vezina 18:00 Toughest competition in the East 22:00 Brayden Point's emergence 26:45 An Erik Karlsson trade, and his landing spots 46:15 Trade deadline optimism Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. and join him. He's my good buddy, Alan Wells. Alan, what's going on, man? Not too much. Just trying to get through this second half of the season here and get to the playoffs so we can see what this lightning team really has this season. Now, would you describe yourself as the Stephen Stamcoast to my Nikita Kutrov or do you think you'd more describe yourself as the Braden-Colburn to my Dan Gerardy?

The first one, please. Not the second one. I don't think anyone wants to be that. Yeah, I'll be Stamcoast. and you can set me up and I'll finish. Yeah, well, I would like to believe that's the case, but I guess it depends on who you ask. Although, I will say, I mean, Dan Jarrett has been sneakily effective this season, no?

He has been every bit of average, which is much more than I could have possibly expected. So, yeah, I wrote something when the rumor came out that they were going to sign him, and that is looking like probably the worst thing I've ever written in terms of projections at this point. Because he looks so bad by every metric and it kind of makes you wonder what was going on in New York if it was just usage or if there's some system effects too there. But it'd be really interesting to try to figure out what can make a guy go from maybe the worst player in regular player in the league by war last season to looking like a league average player. That's a huge change. Yeah, it's all relative. All right, well, let's get into this lightning team.

I haven't had a chance to have you on on the show this season. Last time we talked was during the summer. I remember we did a mailbag episode, but it's obviously things have been going very well, pretty much everything that could have gone right, has so far. I mean, the team is actually, they're not really running away with the

Atlantic Division anymore, right? It looks like Boston has actually made, cut quite a bit of a bit of dent into their lead here. I mean, they're still up by five or six points, but Boston has a few games in hand, so they still have something to play for it, but I mean, it's obviously been a very effective and promising season so far.

I don't know, like, where should we start with this discussion? Should we just talk about all the bright spots first, talk about Kuturav, Stamkoz Vasilowski, and then get into some other stuff? Or do you think that? What do you think we should do? Yeah, I mean, we can do that. We can talk about the season just kind of generally. And you're right in saying that everything's going well.

And I had pointed out a couple times in different pieces that not only have they played well at times, but they've also gotten a lot of a lot of good luck. I have to say, I mean, they're a, They have a lot of shooting talent, so you expect them to finish at a little higher rate than the rest of the league. But they've, even considering that, they've had some good shooting luck. And Vasilisky has been lights out for the first half of the year. And I'm not sure that he's quite at that level to play that way consistently. So they had a great stretch there for about 20 games where they are a dominant shot share and expected goal share team.

And then they've also gotten a lift from shooting and goaltending. So yeah, and healthy, which they weren't at all last year. So that's been another huge thing. And even that headman injury, you know, it's a three to six week injury. He comes back after three weeks. Two of those weeks are, you know, one is the biweek and one is the All-Star break. So they're just getting those kind of breaks that they didn't catch last season. And that's that combined with their good play is we need to really good results.

Yeah, after everything they went through last year, I feel like they were due for some positive aggression in terms of injury luck and all that. But, you know, I think the lightning fans that are listening right now would probably shudder. at this comparison because obviously of how, you know, their postseason's wound up turning out. But so like this profile reminds me a lot of the Washington Capitals teams over the past few years where like, you know, by any metric, they're obviously very, very good and they have so much talent that you expect them to exceed sort of the regular, you know, shooting and say percentage rates that you'd expect, as you mentioned. But it, there is a bit of good fortune involved. And obviously, we know that come the postseason in such a small little sample in a seven-game series,

anything can really happen. So it's one of those things where, you know, with this team, you sort of want to enjoy the ride and you want to enjoy all the winning they're doing and how they're accomplishing at the season. But then you sort of also have to try and remain as level-headed as possible and not get too carried away because we've sort of seen this story and how it plays out before. Yeah, I think you hit it there with the sample size stuff and the playoffs. I mean, the results that time of year are so percentage-driven,

and we've seen that the caps get tanked by shooting percentage or safe percentage or both at times. You know, I don't think you can worry too much about that stuff. I think the process has been really good this year. I've been happy with a lot of the decisions that they made in terms of the way they structured the lineup, the way they've divvied up minutes and things like that. So I think they're kind of doing all the right things for the most part.

I got a couple little things that I can nitpick, but for the most part, I think they're headed in the right. direction and they're earning the results that they're getting. And, you know, who knows what happens when you get to the playoffs, you know, you hit a hot goal year. You know, you can't find a net for a couple games and you're in trouble. But I think the process has been solid this year. So do you think come the end of the season and when we go through that awards voting process, obviously there's still a lot of season left and, you know, injuries can happen or surprising storylines can unfold. But based on sort of the trajectory run right now, it definitely seems like,

you know, the MVP is Kutrovs to lose. obviously McKinnon has been making quite a bit of a run, but even he got injured last night. So we'll see what happens with that. But let's assume things keep going this way. And do you think, do you buy into the argument that it's sort of tough to separate, you know, the contributions of a guy like Stephen Stamco's to Kucharov's case? Or do you think it's one of those things where they definitely compliment each other and they work off of each other. But Kuturov's individual greatness is undeniable and he's very deserving of that award. Yeah.

I mean, I could honestly make a case for either at this point. And I think that's something that I'm going to dig into a little bit more over the next few weeks. If you look at their shot metrics, like if you, I mean, obviously they're both near the top of the league in scoring. And Kutrov's doing more of it at 5 v.5 and Stamko's doing more of it on the power play. But if you dig in a little deeper, Stam Kost's shot metrics are actually significantly better than Kuturov. Kutrov, I think, is a negative shot share and expect the goal share relative to teammates player this year, which is very different for him. And obviously, he's playing on a great team. And so some of those relative metrics can get skewed a little bit in that situation.

And so I'm not downplaying his season by any means. But I think Stamco's deserves a little more credit because he's looking really solid across the board and right up near the top of the league in scoring. So I think there's a solid case to be made, honestly, for either of those guys. and I'll be interested to see if Stamco starts to gain some steam over the second half of the season in that discussion or if it kind of stays focused on Kutrov, where a lot of that momentum is really carrying over from the end of last season when he was just outrageously dominant in trying to carry this team to the playoffs. So it's funny how those awards that kind of build momentum over multiple seasons and it sort of feels like a certain player's time. It feels like it's Kutrov's time and, you know, he would certainly be deserving. Yeah, yeah.

Usually when you say it's someone's time, it's, you know, the Drew Doughty thing where it's probably. Probably not actually his time, but in this case, yeah, it's very well deserved. Yeah, I did notice that. I mean, obviously, you know, small sample size caveat. It's only about, I want to see, like, 100 to 150 minutes or so at 5-on-5 that they haven't played together this season. But Stamco's number is definitely skyrocket in terms of shot share and all that without Kutrov, whereas Kutrov's dropped down a little bit. But I don't know. Yeah, it's, it's one of those things where you don't want to really overthink it. They just go so well together. And especially on the power play, I mean, I think as the year has gone on, it's slowed down a little bit, but it's still, it's so tough to defend when you have, you know, Kuturov on that right circle and Stam goes on the left, and they're both equally effective as, as playmakers and as shooters. And it's, you know, that east-west across the Royal Road. I mean, it's a thing of beauty. It's, I think that my argument for having the Red Zone version, a channel for the NHO, where

it goes straight whenever a team's on a power play and it goes straight to that so you can see what's happening. I think, I would definitely need that for the lightning. because I want to watch every single time they go in the powerboy. Yeah, it's when it's clicking, it's unfair to have two guys with that caliber shot and the ability to pass the way they do on opposite sides of each other at the same time with an advantage. It's just unreal.

And that's not something that they did a lot before this year. That was a big change that they made on the power play coming into the season. Todd Richards, who coaches the power play has made huge improvements. That was a major weakness, if you remember, a couple years ago. in their deep playoff runs that they were genuinely bad on the power play, even with as much offensive talent as they have. And so he's kind of worked all that out and just said, you know, these are our two best players.

We're going to set them up on opposite sides of the ice. And good luck making decisions about which sides you want to shade to because we'll take whatever you give us. Yeah, it's weird because in most cases, a guy like Victor Headman with a shot that he has at the top of the point, you'd be very happy with him getting a clean look whenever he could. But just based on the other weapons they have, I kind of feel like a little. disappointed every time they settle for that shop in the point because I feel like they could generate such a higher quality look. So I guess that just, you know, it goes to the show just

the plethora of weapons they have with that unit. But, you know, in terms of thinking ahead, obviously not this summer, but the one after is going to be the one where they're going to have to make some serious decisions and shout out some more money. But this year, the one big name that they're going to have to kind of figure out what they're going to do with financially is Bladnemesnikov. And, you know, in this discussion with Kutrov and Stamkos, obviously they're going to take a lot of the spotlight and the attention, but he's sort of done when he's been with them out there, he's sort of done sort of all that little stuff around the net and he's been supremely effective on his own. And I know it's kind of weird. Like what, I know that you're personally

a big fan of his game, but it's, it's kind of tough because you obviously don't want to necessarily pay him and reward him purely based on production just because of this great spot he's in, but at the same time, I'm sure that's going to dictate some of the negotiations as well. Yeah, that's a, that's going to be a really interesting negotiation. It's going to depend really heavily, I think, on what happens with him in the second half of the year. I wrote a big kind of feature on him over the summer and just kind of highlighting some of the things that he does. He's so great in the defensive zone and he's great at starting the breakout. And like you said, he's good around the net.

He just does all the little things that kind of free up Stamco's and Kutrov when he's playing with them to focus on their offense. You know, he just bears a lot of that responsibility to get the play started and they can focus on getting out through the neutral zone. start the rush and he's happy to trail and kind of drive that center lane behind and pick up the garbage and forecheck and all that stuff. And he's been super valuable, but in the past he hadn't really scored at all. And so the thought was that, you know, he would probably be a pretty affordable player because, you know, contracts tend to be based heavily on points and some of the, you know, some of the more microstack kind of stuff, you know, zone exit, zone entry, neutral zone play. That kind of stuff doesn't, doesn't factor in as much in negotiations right now. But

with the points he's put up this season, that kind of changes the equation. And so it'll be interesting to see if they, you know, it's one season of that kind of, those kind of results for him to pull from. But yeah, it kind of threw a monkey wrench into the, end of the plans. And, you know, his agent's going to have a good case to push for a decent contract. And that could, that could be a complicating factor, you know, for next summer with Kutrov and Point needing contracts. From a lineup construction perspective, whenever you're sort of thinking, about what the best way is to fill out your forward lines and how to surround star talent like

Kutrov and Stamkos, it's always, it's always interesting to sort of think about it from a philosophical perspective, right? Because, you know, there's an argument to be made that you want to diversify and maybe you put slightly less, less effective individual talent with them just because, you know, their own star talent is going to help rise them and elevate their own performance. But with a guy like Nemesnikov, watching him sort of feed off of them is fascinating because, like, he's got his own skill in his own right. It's obviously not nearly to the degree where they're at, but he can sort of think the game at the same level they can. And I feel like with these guys in particular, that's such a useful skill as opposed to putting just sort of more of a kind of gritty

prototypical guy who's going to go to the net and crash all the time. Like I've enjoyed that as opposed to some other times how we see coaches favor playing star players with more gritty types. Yeah, I think it's, that that skill fit thing is really interesting. And it's one of the things that I think we're learning about a lot in terms of how the game is changing. And, you know, if you have a guy like him where his weaknesses are exactly the strengths of the two guys he's playing with, then that can be a really powerful thing. And it allows you to shift a guy like Andre Palat down to the second line. And he can be a big driver on that line.

And it just allows for you to kind of disperse talent throughout the, throughout those four lines. If you can sort of see that puzzle and say, hey, this guy is weak in this area, but these other linemates are strong. and if we put them together, we've got a really solid unit. Yes. All right. Let's talk a bit about Vasilevsky. You know, we were talking about the individual awards

and recognizing the great play of the lightning so far, and it seems like, you know, Kutra was probably going to win the heart. And it seems like it could be a bit of a clean sweep up top there where I'd say the Vesna is Vasilevsky's right now to lose. I'm curious to see how his second half is going to look because he's never really at the NHL level or I guess anywhere had to have this.

type of a workload. I believe his last year was his tops in terms of workload and he had 50 games or so. So he's already going to smash that this year and we'll see if that takes its toll on him or whether he's able to maintain this performance. But he basically

by any metric you look at, especially the ones voters will be looking at with goals against and wins and just regular save percentage. He's sweeping all those for all regular starters in the league. So it seems like barring some sort of collapse. it's going to be his to win.

Yeah, I mean, I think you're exactly right on that. I mean, if you look at the stats that the voters are going to look at, you know, he's been great in those all year long. He has, you know, had a boost by playing behind the team that he's playing. The lightning, I think people might not realize that the strength for them from a, from a shot metric perspective, has really been their defense, has been shot suppression, suppressing, you know, quality chances against. and that pushes down those expected goals against.

But even acknowledging that, he's performed at a level above, you know, sort of where you would expect even behind a good defense. So, yeah, he's been great. And to see him at this age kind of starting to fulfill the potential that everyone saw for him is encouraging. And it's got to be a little scary, I would think, for the rest of the league. If you look at a team with the finishing talent that the lightning have up front, then you put a plus goalie or, you know, maybe even a, you know,

we're talking maybe like top 10 or maybe even top five goalie in the net. I mean, that's a, that's a pretty dangerous combination in terms of winning hockey games, you know, scoring a lot of goals and not giving up many. It's tough to beat that. Yes. Yeah. No, that's, that's, that's analytics for you right there. That's a good formula you stumbled upon.

Yeah, no, I just can't, I can't shake. And obviously, you know, as we mentioned at the start of the show, the fact that it hasn't worked out for a team like the Caps in recent years has no bearing on what's going to happen with this lightning team. when you're just thinking about the offensive talent, especially individually up front and then the top five goal tender, it's, man, I guess Capitals fans, more so than anything, are just listening to this right now and they just feel sick. Yeah, I mean, the parallels are definitely there.

You know, I think if you're a lightning fan, you just try to, you try that Washington's got a long storied history of terrible luck in the playoffs and you just got to kind of hope that's theirs and we'll have our own. We'll have our own much better luck. Yes. All right. Let's take a quick break here to hear from a sponsor and we're going to talk about, you know, their Eastern Conference competition and trade headline moves and all that on the other side of things. Sounds good. We've been doing Seekek Reeds on the HockeyPedocast for some time now and the reason why we keep doing them is because I legitimately believe in their product. Having used them countless

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That's promo code PDO for $20 off your first Seek purchase. Now, let's get back to the show. Okay. Before we get into trade deadline stuff and hypothetical sort of fantasy booking trades and stuff like that, you know, let's work under the assumption that the Lightning right now are the class of the Eastern Conference. When you look at the rest of the teams out there, who, you, you know, you as their biggest competition come playoff time?

So for me, I think Boston is really good. I think they're not getting the credit fully that they deserve. Their shot metrics and stuff look great. That top line that they have is outrageous. And then from there, obviously, you got to go over to the Metro. I mean, I think the Leafs are good. I don't know that they're really there in terms of

being a real threat in the playoffs. this year. But then you go over to the metro and, you know, I don't really understand how Washington is putting up the results that they are. I look at their points in the standings and then I look at their metrics and I seems to be a huge gap there, but it doesn't seem to ever change. So I don't know. They're just going to ride their shooting and goaltending.

I think Pittsburgh is still like terrifying. I don't understand what's happening with them percentage-wise. They're like the anti-caps this year. But they're shot metrics. especially over the last few weeks are ridiculous. And if a couple of pucks start going in the net and they save some at the other end, they're going to be a nightmare to deal with. So I would say probably the Bruins and the Penns are the two teams that concern me most.

Yeah, especially when you look at on paper how they'd match up and sort of how a potential series would play out from an X's and O's perspective, I'd be so fascinated to see that Lightning Bruins series because, you know, there aren't too many teams out there that could theoretically go power versus power with the lightning. and succeed or actually have an advantage. And I'd be very fascinated to see if, you know, especially for the games in Boston where the Bruins could potentially hard match and throw out that Bergeron, Marsha and Pasternak Line against Kutrov and Stamco, whether Cooper would stick with that or whether he'd try and break those two guys up. Like, he's experimented in small samples this season to try and go for a more balanced attack

because, I don't know, like, it's, that Bergeron line might be one of the few out there that can actually go head to head with those guys. And I'm very curious to see what will play out from that perspective. Yeah, it's really intriguing. I was thinking the same thing. And, you know, it would be interesting to see the difference in the way that the coaches deploy those lines, you know, when the Lightning are home versus when Boston's home. You know, Boston's got a choice. If they want to go, if they want a hard match against the Lightning's top line, the problem for them there is that the Lightning has a bunch of,

of other good lines that can score goals. And if they might be better served trying to get that line out in good matchups where they can get their offense because they rely on that line so heavily to score, whereas the lightning might be more focused on, you know, just if they can just not get killed when that line's on the ice, then they can survive and win the other matchups. But yeah, it's really interesting, you know, just how top-heavy Boston is. I think the rest of their roster is a little underrated. They have some lesser known guys and younger guys who are coming up and playing really well for them.

But that first line is just terrifying. Yeah, you're right. I mean, obviously they don't get much of the attention because of the top dogs on this team. But that, you know, Point and Johnson and then whether it's been Palat or Gord would them have been spectacular all year. And yeah, I imagine that those guys would probably feast quite a bit on the Bruin's secondary units. So, yeah, I mean, that's kind of what makes this lightning. team as lethal as it is. It's, you know, it has the top few guys up top, but then there's actually some more substance to it as well. And that's obviously going to be huge come playoff time when you

need more than just one or two guys. Yeah, I think point making the All-Star game kind of brought him out into the broader public eye a little bit more. But that kid is, is legit. He's playing like a for real, like, top line NHL Center this year. He's his, his 5'E5.5. scoring rate is right near the top of the league. He doesn't get first power play unit time and he doesn't, he hasn't scored a ton on the power play this year, and that's why his overall scoring numbers are a little bit lower. But his two-way impact is huge. And Cooper's been talking really since he came up last year as a rookie that he thinks he's

a future kind of Selky candidate type player. And at his height, he's, he's going to be a really interesting guy to watch sort of what his impact becomes on the league when when people realize that a guy that size can can drive play in both directions and be you know score a ton of points and also be really great defensively well that's the thing i i i've obviously been a huge fan of his for a while now and and was very optimistic about him as a prospect and have you know recognized how fun he's been to watch this season but i guess just because of that usage and because he hasn't been able to uh rack up a bunch of more superficial power play production it's a little bit under the radar but then i remember looking the

other day and at the time it was like mckinin kutcherov mcd macd macdavit and I think Barzal, and then he was right there behind those guys in terms of just raw 5-on-5 points, which is truly remarkable. And obviously, I think that, you know, going to the All-Star game kind of opened some people's eyes to that. But it's still, it's still remarkable. And it's still he's not going to get that attention until maybe come to the postseason when he starts to make a name for himself as well. Yeah.

And I mean, his trajectory is really encouraging. I mean, he wasn't expected to even make the team last year. he forced his way onto the team out of camp, struggled a little bit out of the gate, had an injury, came back in the second half of the year, was dominant when they had all the injuries. It was he and Kutrov on that top line that were so great that almost got them into the playoffs last year.

Yeah, his contract situation next year is going to be really interesting. And the lightning, I'm not sure if people have fully realized it yet, but the lightning may have stumbled into another, like, legit star forward to go with the other guys they have, which is kind of scary. Well, they definitely needed another one of those, so it's good thing, good thing, good timing. Yeah, I know watching the World Juniors and obviously, see, those guys are still ways away, but you watch, it seems like every time a prospect was doing something, it's like, you look up who drafted them, it's like, oh, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Oh, oh, this is, this is, this is going to be good in a couple of years.

So it's, yeah, there's definitely the pipeline. It is amazing. And I guess that's a good segue here to kind of look ahead and talk about the trade deadline and sort of this team's needs and how they can. can load up for the postseason and you know we haven't really talked about the blue line much yet other than that little back and forth about about dan gerardy at the start of the show but if there was one particularly glaring need on this team i imagine that it would be adding another kind of play driver on the back end there would you say yeah i mean i think that they have they basically have they have headman and strawman who they can rely on every night all the time to to carry a pair if they

have to. They have Sergeyev, who has done, I think, more than I expected this year, been really good struggled a little bit. He's finally hit that wall a little bit, I think, where his numbers have kind of gone in the tank for the last, I don't know, five to ten games or so. And they, they sat him down for a couple games, which I think, you know, some people weren't happy with, but I think that, I think that was fair. If you look at the results, he had over a few games there. So he's kind of the wild card where he can, you know, if he can be a really solid, you know, third D, then that's a huge win for them. But they still have a hole in that top four because they've got, they've got those three guys and then they've got five guys who should all be on the bottom pair or like a seventh D. And they just still have a spot where somebody's playing in the top four who shouldn't be most of the year.

It's been Jake Dodchin and he, you know, Victor Hedman pretty much carries him. and he does, you know, he plays a simple game and tries not to cause any problems, basically, and then lets Victor Hedman kind of do his thing. But yeah, I think they would really like to have a solid top four and then be able to flex whoever they feel like is deserves playing time on that third pair. So, Alan, one of the reasons why I love following you on Twitter is because I honestly think you are one of the more sort of rational, level-headed, pragmatic thinkers there is. you rarely ever get overly carried away unless it's something relating to Matthew Pecka.

But this is, but that's why I want you right now to talk me out of why the Lightning should not go all in with Eric Carlson. Yeah, this thing is getting a little out of control. I think, I think first of all, like I understand where it's coming from. There's not that many teams that have the assets to go get him and feel like they're not totally gutting their system to do it. the lightning could do that. And then obviously they, you know, they sort of fit that profile of a win now team. I'm not totally against the idea where I start to run into problems as I try to think through it is, you know, if we're talking about a trade deadline move this season, it just seems, I don't see how the lightning could sign him long term.

I just don't see how they have the cap space with Kutrov's contract coming up and points contract. coming up. Basilevsky's going to need a new deal in a few years. They've got kids coming up through the pipeline. If they didn't trade Circachev in a deal for Carlson, he's going to need a contract at some point. So I don't know how they could sign him long term. And so then you're talking about essentially a year and a half rental.

And they have the cap space to do it absolutely. They could definitely fit him in. But I just, I have to imagine that there's a team out there that would be able to sign him long term that would be in at the trade deadline this year. and want to acquire him. I can't imagine the price that the lightning would pay for a year and a half of him outbidding a team that thinks that they're getting him for the next, you know, 10 or 12 years or whatever it might be.

So that's sort of where I just have a hard time seeing it be viable. But I guess if the market sort of doesn't emerge and Ottawa feels like they, you know, they panic and they have to do something, I guess, I guess anything's possible with that team. Yeah, it's tough. There's obviously a lot of layers to a potential deal like this because, like, on the one hand, I'm all for taking calculated risks when you're one of the handful of teams that is legitimately contender and has a chance to win a Stanley Cup because you sort of can't take that window for granted. And we see time and time again, you know, just weird unforeseen things happen. Injuries happen. Guys randomly decline.

And all of a sudden, you thought this team that was going to be there for years. all of a sudden isn't there anymore. So I think with this Lightning team, it's very clear that right now they're positioned as one of the best, if not the best team in the league. And they should go all in. But at the same time, obviously, bringing a guy like Carlson in doesn't necessarily guarantee you anything. And yeah, it seems like the cost is probably going to be pretty exorbitant.

And I think the one thing that the Lightning have kind of going against them in this case is they do have the assets. And I think they could build a very intriguing package of either young cost control players or picks or prospects, but they can't really take back any other bad contracts from the senators. And I imagine that that's something if they do trade Carlson, that they're going to try to accomplish as well. So that would kind of throw the biggest monkey wrench in this, if you're just thinking about it from the senator's perspective. Yeah. I mean, I think that's a, that's a great point. I'm sure they're going to want to try to unload one of, you know, maybe

Finoa for somebody to try to ease, yeah, yeah, to try to ease some of that, ease some of that strain and the lightning definitely, definitely, you know, couldn't do that. I think for this, from the Sends perspective, it's, it's a really interesting thing. And I personally, I don't expect anything to happen at the trade deadline. I think that's a really kind of difficult move to try to orchestrate, you know, in season. But, you know, you got to wonder if they, if they head into the summer and they have a real thought that he's not coming back and hopefully they're realistic enough to know that they're not going to be competitive next year.

I mean, they almost have to do it in the summer, don't they? To get something to deal him either at the trade deadline next year as a rental, where they're going to get almost nothing compared to his actual value or even worse to let him walk for nothing. I mean, it seems like if they really get the sense that either they're not willing to spend the money to bring him back or that he's not interested in coming back, that they kind of have to do something over the summer. Yeah, but I think they kind of have to do something right now, don't they?

I understand that, especially the player of Carlson's caliber, you just never know when you're going to get another opportunity to have a guy like that on your team. And when you do have him, you want to do everything you can to keep him. But it's like obviously things aren't getting better right now. And there isn't much reason to believe that they will. And I imagine that a team would be willing to pay significantly more to take two shots. Like especially for a team like the Lightning, for example, like the fact that they could go for two runs with Eric Carlson compared to. to the one they'd get if they trade it at some point of the summer or into next season. So I don't know, it's something that it seems crazy on the surface, but the more you think about it, it makes more sense. And the senators, I imagine, are weighing all these things right now. Yeah, I can't even imagine what that, what that, I mean, there's, there's a lot of issues in that front office that have sort of led to this situation, obviously. I mean, you know, they haven't handled it optimally or they wouldn't, they wouldn't be in this spot. But, yeah, that's a, that's a crazy thing to have to try to, you know, do we, do we pull the trigger now?

Do we wait until the summer when we can sit down with the agent and the player and try to talk it out and make some progress? And then if we don't make any progress, then do we do it then? Because, yeah, it's every kind of step along the path that you go further, you're getting less in return. And that's kind of an ugly situation. And I'm surprised it's gotten to the point that it has. Well, and the other factor we haven't mentioned yet. And not that this should necessarily dictate your decision making, especially for a team like the senators who, if they trade, era Carlson they'd be a few years away anyways so you should just focus on building out your own team

and worry about everything else afterwards but it's also uh it would be an indivision trade and that would be an extra uh layer of cruelty to subject your fans to watching him play against your team what at least four or five times next season as well like that's man that'd be uh that'd be a pretty tough pill to swallow for for the senator's hands assuming you know even if they got a good package in return i still be one of those things that would be a tough thing to reconcile Yeah, it would be interesting to see, like, if they, you know, in a hypothetical scenario where they trade, you know, with the lightning and the lightning, give them some, you know, massive package of prospects and picks in return and, you know, an NHL ready player like Sergeyev, I would imagine. It'd be really interesting to see how that, how those, you know, the lightning would obviously dominate that matchup for a few years, but it'd be really interesting to see, you know, in five years how that looks or if maybe the senators were, you know, kind of. getting back at the lightning a little bit with some of those prospects that they acquired,

depending on who they got. So what, okay, what would a package in your mind from the lightning look like for Carlson? Because I imagine that the senators would, I mean, would you, would you prefer a surrogatea or would you prefer Braden Point if you were the Senators? If I was the Sends, I would be asking for point. And if I was a lightning, I would be saying no to that. just based on what I said. I mean, I, I think he's a legit star,

and I don't, I think he's just kind of scraping the surface. And I think in two years we're going to be talking about him as a really special player. If I was going to do it, if I was a lightning, I would probably be talking about Sergei Chev. And you're probably also talking about another, like, star prospect and, you know, a first round pick. So, you know, I wrote an article a couple days ago, and I speculated something like Sergev, Taylor,

a radish and a first. That seems, and another pick maybe, you know, either another first or a second or something. I mean, the value of a player like Carlson, who's, you know, top five player in the NHL, I mean, it's sort of, it's hard almost to overpay for what he's going to bring to your team. And so as much as fans would like to try to put together a package of, like, you know, eight mid-tier prospects. and like mid-round picks.

Like that's not going to get it done. They need, they're going to need, you know, potential stars in return to, to have their fan base even be willing to, you know, consider that that was a reasonable deal. You don't think Adam or any Slater, Cuckoo, and a third is going to get it done? Yeah. Yeah, we'll give you six future third line forwards and four third round picks. And that'll...

Well, Eugene Mennon could probably be like, wait, How many years are those guys going to be cost controlled? Because that's what I want. I mean, yeah, especially for a team like the senator is like, you know, Braden points still, I guess he only has one more year. He obviously still be an RFA after that, but based on his production this year, you imagine he's going to cash in handsomely with his next deal. But, yeah, I mean, getting a young guy who can produce for you at that rate

and you know that for years you're going to be able to control how much he's going to cost that I imagine for a team like the senators has some extra enticing appeal. So yeah, it's a tough one. I mean, this is why this is a discussion in the first place, because there's a few different ways that the lightning could go about structuring a package that the senators would at least have to consider, and that's what makes it a fun topic. Yeah, and I think, you know, while that's definitely a compelling package for the Sends,

like you have to think about that from the Lightning perspective too. And, you know, I mean, Carlson's a great player and I don't want to go crazy on aging curves and stuff. But, you know, he's 27. And when he signs that next deal, he's going to be 29. and, you know, that's probably going to be like a 10-year deal. And, you know, you've just got to think through all that stuff and the amount that you're going to be paying him for,

for which portion of his career compared to, you know, what you would do if you held onto a guy like Sergegachev or, you know, even, you know, even worse, you know, Braden Point. So, yeah, you just, you just got to think through, you know, how much are we, how much are we sort of accelerating our timeline and condensing, you know, the time period where we think that we can be competitive. Yeah, that's such a tough thing. Because you obviously, if you're running this team, you have to think about the future and you sort of want to make sure that you're prepared for the years to come when you're going to have to start siphoning off talent.

And just because of the nature of the salary cap world, which is something we've seen with the Blackhawks over the years. But at the same time, the appeal of bringing in Eric Carlson assuming he's healthy enough to be the player we know he can, I'd be like, because you could either. just totally load up and just play him and headman and just absolutely destroy whenever those guys on the ice or you could just pretty much guarantee that either Carlson or Edmund is going to be on the ice for nearly the entirety of a playoff game which is pretty bonkers based on what we saw in last year's playoffs alone for example where you know whenever Carlson was on the

ice the senators were completely dominating so it's it's one and they were obviously a worse team around him than what the lightning would be able to surround him with so I don't know it's I guess this is why he's divisor and spade the big bucks because it's a pretty difficult decision and a variety of different factors that you really have to weigh. Yeah. I mean, even if nothing happens here, it's such an interesting topic and it's a really interesting thought experiment to try to work your way around and all the different permutations and all the different ways that it can work and, you know, what price do you pay now versus what you would pay in the summer versus what you would pay

the trade deadline next year versus, you know, what would you consider, you know, for him as a UFA and all that stuff. So yeah, it's just, it's, it's going to, it's going to be a topic until, until it resolves itself because there's so many different ways to approach it. So let's say, I mean, obviously you're a lightning fan. So I imagine you're hoping that Carlson goes to the lightning. But if he, if we assume that he's going to get traded, do you have another team, if it weren't the lightning that you'd like to see him on just in terms of a sort of an enjoyment and also,

oh, so all of a sudden, but all of a sudden become super interesting as a contender perspective? I mean, it's, it's, I think there's some, some spots where, where he could go that would, that would make it interesting. But it's hard to think of a team that, like, has the, you know, the, the, the right pieces to acquire him and the right kind of where they're in the right kind of spot to, to be competitive, you know, where he's going to want to sign long term. You know, I don't know, I was trying to kick some around earlier. I haven't looked at cap space and stuff, but what about the Isles? What about the Islanders? Where they just have like this horrific defensive results

and I don't know if it's defense or goaltending or both. You know, and they're trying to keep Tavares. And I don't know, that seems like maybe an interesting, I don't know that he'd want to go there with their arena situation and everything. But that would be kind of an interesting spot where he would fill an immediate need. Yeah. Oh, man. Imagine if, I mean, obviously I think if the Islanders traded for him,

I imagine that would help convince John Tavares to sign with him to summer, but imagine if they traded a premium package of prospects and picks to get Carlson. And then Tavares walks and then the next summer, Carlson's like, yeah, I'm not sticking around here. And then he leaves as well. That would be a bit of a death knell. But okay, here's, I'm going to give you a team. What about Vegas?

Yeah. I mean, I think that's an interesting one. You know, I saw that one floating around today. The only thing that kind of, you know, they have so few assets right now in terms of like prospects, you know, they have one year of drafting. And if they were to trade players out of that, it seems like that would be a huge, that would be like a big commitment to them by them to winning right now and kind of short-circuiting all their plans for development and stuff. But yeah, I mean, when you look at their results, you know, it certainly be fun to have them playing on that team. they play a fast pace and they play a fun style and they seem ready to win right now, shockingly.

So that would definitely be interesting. Yeah, I've been talking myself into them as being a legitimate contender or at least one of the handful of teams out west that if things go their way, could make a lot of noise come postseason. And obviously, you know, for them having, especially come to the postseason when I think star power is of greater importance and you need guys that can really sort of individually take over games in series, having a guy like Carlson on the back end, which be probably if you put him on their team, it would be a bigger swing, net positive than for any

other playoff contender right now. But yeah, that's tough. I think it's probably smart for them to sort of enjoy this ride and maybe you go for some kind of smaller price for a different defenseman and you see what happens this postseason and then you kind of, you stay with this more disciplined approach where you're loading up on picks and prospects and building out your pipeline as opposed to just pushing all your chips in now. And if it doesn't work out, then you're, and have much to show for it. Yeah, I would be, you know, that just seems like such a huge risk, given where they are, you know, in their timeline as a franchise and stuff.

The other one that I thought about, too, was, I know this is unlikely because of division and location and everything, but what about the Leafs? What about Carlson on the Leafs? Oh, absolutely. It's a, no doubt about it, slam dunk, but, man, the Senators cannot trade Eric Carlson. That would be a very tough. It would be very tough to save face if they did that.

So I think that's one of those where, like, I think trading a guy like this indivision is overrated, but in terms of just that sort of geographical thing, I think that would be a tough one, tough one pull off. Yeah, I just, I, when you're trying to think about teams that could actually put together a package though, you know, it's like, what if they have the best package on the table? What if they have something built around Nylander and some, some other, some other good, good young prospects and they're willing to throw in some picks and I don't know it's it's when you're trying to think of teams that have the assets to really do that and the space to do it um there's not

that many and they're they're they're one of them yeah it's a tough one because I think a trade that would make a lot of sense would be something like you know like a Leon dry sidel for him straight up but I don't from the senator's perspective I can't see that being that appealing to them considering dry sidels already getting paid like a star like I I guess he's under contract for many years to come, so you know that he's going to be around for a while, but I imagine that the senators might have a different agenda in terms of trying to shed salary

and also get more cost-controlled guys as opposed to going one-for-one with a star-for-star. Yeah, I think you're exactly right there. I think they're going to want, ideally, the youngest kind of NHL-ready players that they can possibly get, that they can have, like you said, you know, control of through their RRF,

failures. I don't know if they New Jersey would be interesting, but I don't know if they have the, are you okay there, Alan? Yeah. You got floored by my New Jersey suggestion there. You can contain your excitement. No, I don't think, I don't know if the devils have

the assets to make a trade like that happen, but he'd obviously be intriguing there and obviously I don't know if he'd re-signed there and I imagine New Jersey would want some sort of confirmation for that as well, but they're, I mean, they're against all odds in the postseason right and obviously their biggest needs are on the blue line.

So he'd be huge for that. But yeah, it's, all the roads keep pointing back to Tampa Bay. I've been trying to find one team that makes more sense. And I can't do it. I think Tampa Bay is the one that makes the most sense. Yeah. I mean, I don't think there's a huge argument,

counter argument to that, honestly. I mean, I think they pretty clearly make the most sense. It's just a matter of, you know, if both sides would be serious about wanting to do that. So if you were running the lightning, because I imagine that, you know, some other top defensemen who are under contract for another year or so and might command a bit smaller price in terms of trade capital, like are available, right? I mean, we've heard rumblings that are Ryan McDonough's available.

You imagine that Oliver Eckman-Larsen would be available for the right price. Do any of those guys have appeal for you, or do you think it's one of those things where, unless the price is so much lower and it's probably not, you may as well just really, If you're going to do it, just push all in and go for a guy like Carlson instead. Yeah, I mean, I think that's the key. You got to look at, you know, what is the difference in price? And, you know, does it make up for the gap, you know, in results that you're going to get. McDonough is appealing to me as a, you know, he's a right-hand of D.

He would fit, you know, kind of perfectly into where they, or no, he's a left. But they, he would fit perfectly into where they have a need sort of in that, in that top four. Warren slot in. Ekman Larson, I think, is a really interesting player who's kind of been up and down over the last couple years, and it's tough to get a feel for guys in Arizona in terms of their results, how much of that is team and how much of that is individual. But yeah, I think both of those are appealing. It's just going to come down to price. And if it's going to be, you know, if we're talking about a difference of, you know, a couple draft picks or one more process or one or two more prospects or whatever i mean yeah you you you go get eric carlson and you

you go for it for the next two years yeah well i should know better but now i mean we do this same dance every year where we talk ourselves into the best case scenario for all these blockbuster trades and then the trade deadline comes and we're all waiting patiently and you know it passes and nothing happens and then we're all disappointed and we go all right we've learned our lesson next year we're going to remember this and then next year rolls around and here we are it's the last day of january i'm i'm just rubbing my hands together a whole hoping that some blockbuster trades are going to come down the pike, but I don't know. I guess you seem less optimistic that something's going to happen.

Maybe you've learned a lesson more so than I have in the past. Yeah, I think I'm just always, I guess I'm always a skeptic and also having, I think, going through the Stamcoast UFA stuff a couple years ago, you know, you just, the more times we go through this, you ultimately see guys, you know, resign. I know there's, there's complicating factors with Carlson in terms of the, where the, where the, where the franchise is at and, you know, there seems to be some genuine concern there in terms of their financial status and all that stuff. But, but yeah, I just, I'm always skeptical that these kind of huge deals are going to get done. And I think it's, it's much more likely that

something smaller happens. And hopefully it's, it's not something worse, like, you know, going out and getting like Jack Johnson or Erica Branson or something. Hopefully they can, if, if none of these, these sort of big trades materialize, hopefully they don't, they don't fall into the trap of settling for, for one of those guys. Do you have a sort of a lesser tier intriguing option? Obviously not in Good Branson and Jack Johnson, but someone that would cost a similar price range that would actually be appealing to a team like the Lightning?

So I haven't seen anyone or come across anyone on the blue line that I think is particularly intriguing. The name that interests me the most that has kind of floated out there a little bit, and you and Charlie O'Connor talked about this, is Wayne Simmons. I think Wayne Simmons would be a great fit with the lightning. They don't have anybody who really plays that net front game the way he does. They still do have an opening in their top nine for a winger that he could fill perfectly.

His contract is great. He'd be around for the next two years right before the Kutrovun point contracts come up. And if they were willing to trade him for sort of what he'd, his actual value is. I mean, that is one that I would seriously consider. It doesn't address, you know, what is obviously the perceived area of need. It kind of adds to a strength area. But it gives them a really special skill set that they don't have that I think would make them a lot better, especially in the playoffs when, you know, getting in front of the net and kind of causing a mess and finding ways to get goals when things are tighter, you know, that that becomes

even more valuable. Boy, if they got Wayne Simmons, I think that that Tampa Bay Lightning power play unit sure it could make something of it. Yeah, yeah, just Stamcoast and Kutjrov and Hedman just peppering the net and Simmons just cleaning up whatever junk happens to land in front. That'd be terrifying. All right, Alan, let's get out of here. Do you have anything to plug? What are you working on these days and where can people check out all your stuff?

So you can find my lightning stuff at raw charge. I have a, I do kind of 10 game reports there where we look at the season and segments. I have another one coming out on Thursday. So that should be out. I have all my sort of bigger picture stuff goes up at hockey graphs. I did an article a couple months ago, even though it's old. I'm going to plug it anyway where I kind of tried to introduce a method for estimating shot assist to give us a better idea of who are the players that are making the passes

that are leading to shots. And I thought that was some pretty interesting stuff. So yeah, just check it out at raw charge and add hockey graphs. And then obviously I'm at loser points on Twitter. Awesome, man. Well, I appreciate you taking the time to come chat. And, you know, we'll see what's going to happen in these next couple weeks leading up to the trade deadline.

And I'm sure they were going to have you back on sometime towards a postseason to talk about lightning. Yeah, sounds great. All right. Chat soon. All right. The hockey PDO cast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.

At soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.