The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 234: Here We Go Again

Episode Date: May 4, 2018

Jon Press joins the show to help dig into Penguins vs. Capitals. Topics discussed include: 0:30 How Pittsburgh flipped the script in Game 4 10:00 How the two teams match up down the middle 17:30 The Good vs. Bad with Tom Wilson 29:30 Braden Holtby's odd year, and historic playoff success 36:30 Areas Barry Trotz's successor could improve in 41:00 John Carlson's looming free agency 50:00 Looking ahead to how the Capitals will look in the future Sponsoring today’s show is Indochino. They’re now hooking my listeners up with any premium suit in their catalogue for just $379 (including free shipping). To take advantage of this great offer, just visit their website and enter the promo code PDOwhen checking out. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. joining me as my good buddy, John Press. John, what's going on, man? Oh, not much. Just relaxing after another easy to watch playoff game? Yeah, well, the Capitals don't really know any other way than nice and easy. You know what's crazy?

I remember in previewing the series, I was looking at all the playoff stats for them during the Lovetschian era, and I think the stat is like they've been in 16 playoff series, not including this current Penguins one, and 10 of them have gone to a game season. So it's for Capitals fans. Yeah, it's, you know exactly what you're going to get. It's going to be a roller coaster ride and it's probably going to go at least six or seven games.

Yep. Okay, so we're recording this right after game four concluded. So we're kind of hot off the presses here. I haven't even had a chance to really dig into the numbers from tonight's game, but we both watched it and we're just going to kind of freewheel in and talk about this series a little bit. And hopefully people will get to listen to this before game five happens and deems everything we say completely irrelevant. So, okay, where are you at right now with this series? I know we were talking about before we went on the air and you were sort of saying that, you know,

it wasn't very likely that this team was going to come in and steal both games in Pittsburgh, so they got the sweep and now they're headed back home. Is there sort of just, is that where you're at or is there something a bit deeper that you want to get into? You know, I think there are some more pessimistic takeaways and some more optimistic ones. So, you know, to start with the optimistic ones, yeah, you know, they were not going to go into Pittsburgh and take both games. Pittsburgh is too, way too good a team, especially on home ice. So the Caps did what they realistically set out to do, which is to regain home ice advantage. And now it's a best of three heading home.

You know, they get to go back home, get some more favorable line deployments, and hopefully a little home. cooking on Saturday night does them some good because quite frankly I thought that Barry Trots was pretty handily outcoached in this game four and you know part of it's his own doing sticking with Devante Smith Pelle up on that top line with Ovechkin and Kuznettov which was I mean it was just a disaster all night anytime you go through a playoff game and Alex Ovechkin doesn't generate a single a little shot on goal and granted, you know, some of that's certainly on him. But up against, when those three were together, because Natsovov-Evetchin and Smith Pelly in shot attempts, they were attempted 21 to 6, which, I mean, that's just no way to go

through life with your top line getting caved in like that. So it would have been nice if Trots had recognized that a little earlier, but he stuck with it pretty much the whole way, you know, and it wasn't until. the third period when, to me, Pittsburgh seemed to turtle a little bit, and the cap's got some pressure going late. But, you know, it just, that's just not a tenable top line. And Devante Smith Pelley is many things, but a first-line winger to play alongside Alex Ovechkin and Afghani because Nutsov is probably not one of them.

Yeah, I'm looking here, Ovechkin played like almost 16 minutes tonight at 5-1-5 haven't had only the one shot attempt. And obviously, that's very uncharacteristic. And the fact that that line just had the puck so infrequently throughout the night is a big reason why. And yeah, I mean, you know, single game shot metrics, there's always a lot of noise. But when you're getting pummeled that badly, like even if there's some volatility in there and, you know, some shenanigans, it's still not a good sign. And I just, this is my thing with the trots. I understand that, you know, he's a very well-respected coach. And, you know, he's been in this league a long time. and I think he's done a lot of things really good during his time in Washington.

But it's a lot of the issues keep coming back to, and this is the case for most coaches, it's sort of this like reliance on kind of the more conservative approach or the player types and what you favor and what you stay away from. And then, you know, you look at just deployment and the fact that, yeah, Cabrana can't seem to move up the line up, even though he seems like a very clear option to play up there on the top line with Tom Olsen out. And so it's little stuff like that.

and obviously like the Brooks Sorbic club. I wouldn't even need to get into that. But it's just a lot of, I think when someone asked me, wow, I think about Barry Trots as a coach and the job he's done here. Always, despite all the positives, I seem to keep coming back to this. And it's just, it must be so infuriating

because while they're obviously handcuffed a little bit with Tom Wilson being out for these three games, it's really hard to make any sort of case that, you know, the alternative they went with was the best one they had at the disposal. Yeah, I think that's right. And let's not forget that Andrei Burakowska hasn't had a chance to play in this series either. And that's two legit top six wingers that they're down.

So that's two clearly would be Trots's two best options there, other than T.J. Oshy, who's settled in nicely on that second line with Baxter and Chandler-Stevenson. And, I mean, to be fair, Lars Eller, Brett Connolly, and Vrana on that third line did some things tonight that were pretty positive. But, you know, at the end of the day, you got to get the big guy going. And if you can't do that, and if you're skating those guys out there with an anchor like Smith Pelley, and, you know, you go into a third period down a goal and you don't even make an adjustment to maybe try to spark them a little bit with a Vrenna or even a Stevenson

or something. It's sort of disappointing to see that happen. You know, Trots, I think I'm pretty clear on my feelings on Trots generally, but, you know, I think you waited a bit long to try to get Hopi out of the net tonight too. But it's also by no means all, this loss is by no means all on Barry Trots. You know, T.J. O'Shee takes a horrendous interference penalty at the blue line late in the second period and that it turns out to be that Malkin game winning goal. So the team just needs to be better. You know, Pittsburgh is finally healthy with, you know, Malkin's back, Haglund's back. And when they're healthy, I think they're a better team than the caps are.

So you can't necessarily, you can't be outskilled and outworked. That's just not a formula that's going to work. and I thought that in game four, the caps were outskilled and outworked. Well, this was really the first game in this series where Pittsburgh had, you know, the clear upper hand at 5-1-5, and obviously a lot of that has to do with those struggles who just mentioned for the top line with Smith-Pelly on it. But you're right. Obviously, getting Malkin back is a big, big-time, upgrade in a big-time wrinkle for the

penguins to throw in the series because, you know, we saw in those first two games in Washington and it was basically whenever Crosby's line wasn't doing anything, the penguins just really seemed to be kind of skating in mud, and it didn't seem like they had much for an opportunity to generate any offense. And then obviously now, you know, they still need to get Phil Kessel going, and there's still a lot for the penguins to improve as well. But just a 5-1-5 battle here in a series is fascinating to me

because obviously, you know, a lot was made of the capital's sort of underwhelming metrics in that regard during the regular season. And they actually did pretty fine in the first. matchup against Columbus where I thought that would be a big disadvantage for them as well. So I'd say it's promising that they've sort of held their own in that regard throughout the series, but obviously if things keep going in the direction they just went in game four, maybe that could tilt the scales a little bit in Pittsburgh's favor. Well, I think that's right.

And, you know, that is a positive to come through these first four games is, you know, the caps are right there with them. It's a close series. Pittsburgh, I believe they haven't scored a goal yet that Sidney Crosby hasn't been on the ice for. So that's further to your point. I think Penn's fans would likely agree that they would like to see a bit more secondary scoring and some of those, the second third line and, you know, Derek Broussard, guys like that, start chipping in a bit more.

So, yeah, I think that the caps have been able to hang. They sort of maybe turned it around a little bit down the stretch. And then in that first round series against Columbus, they were pretty good at five on five. But they need to get back to what's worked for them through three games. And to be honest, part of that for them is Tom Wilson in the way he plays and what he contributes to this team. I know that I'm not going to make many friends praising him. but, you know, I think part of what you saw in game four was a noticeable absence. And that's a 43-sized hole.

We'll get, okay, we'll get into a whole time with something in a second. I have some thoughts and I'd like to talk about it with you. But before we get into that, just kind of looking ahead a bit here to game five, you know, what was interesting was the Capitals went with a different approach when you look at how they sort of chose to attack the Penguins, the 5-1-5 in game 1 versus game 2, and those are the only two games we sort of have a sample size for here of how they'd like to go about it when they have last change.

And obviously, you know, I think in game one, they were going a lot with the Ovecgen matchup in, because Nets off against Crosby. And then in game 2, they went with what you'd consider to be maybe a more traditional or conventional approach, which was just Baxter, a lot of Baxter, a lot of O'Shea, a lot of Chandler-Stevenson. And, you know, it was easier to do that and load up on them that way,

to unleash Shobetchkin a little bit when there's no of Guinea-Malkin in the picture now looking ahead to Game 5 with him there and the Penguins more so at full health. Do you think it really ultimately matters how you go about that sort of line matching defensive deployment or do you think it's just one of those things

where you just kind of have to play your game and roll your lines and as long as you're going top six first top six it doesn't really matter whether it's the first line versus second line or vice versa. I'd like to see them get Nick Baxter out against Cindy Crosby whenever they can.

I think Baxter is certainly the more complete of the Capp's top two centers. And I think that's what you need against Crosby. And, you know, if Kuznetsov and Ovechkin and Malkin want to skate up and down the

ice trading chances, it'll be entertaining. And that's, I think that's a better deal to something you can live with a little easier than then Ovechkin and Kuznetsov out there against Krosby. I mean, you saw it tonight. And Krosby just absolutely caved in Kuznetsov, who wasn't particularly good.

And that entire line just got eaten up. So I think that it's going to be imperative to also get the right defensive pairings out against the Krosby line. And until those other lines prove that they're ready to step up and beat you, which they absolutely can. I think you've got to worry, you know, it's triage right now, you know. It's stopped the hemorrhaging against the Crosby line, and then let's see where we're at after that. So when you have the chance to do that,

I think that's got to be your first priority. Yeah, I mean, the numbers Gensel's putting up right now, just obscene, obviously, with the two goals. I just got 10 goals this postseason already. It's nuts. So, yeah, no, you're right. It's funny because obviously over the years, the story that, the storyline that people try to go with in the narrative is Crosby versus Ovechkin. And we actually have seen quite a bit of that in this series.

And I think Ovechkin's line, other than tonight, of course, has really kind of held its own in that regard. But it really does seem like, you know, we're going to need a big effort here to see from Nicholas Baxter. And it's weird. Well, you know, following the Capitals this series and watching them in the postseason so far, I guess most of it just has to do with the fact that he's not really playing much with Obetchkin at 5-1-5 anymore, but you just sort of lose, I don't know, it's easy to kind of have him get lost in the shuffle a little bit, just in terms of where the attention's getting divvied up. And then, you know, you see on that power play where he sets up the T.J.oshi Gold,

and you kind of reminded of, you know, the singular skill that he's capable of this playing. And it's like, oh, yeah, this guy's really good. And we just, I don't know, maybe in Washington and amongst Capitol's fans, you guys have been talking a lot more about them. but it seems like nationally this year he has kind of, the attention's gravitated elsewhere, let's say. It has. And that's, you know, that may be the way Baxter likes it. It's certainly the way it's always been in Washington for good and for bad. You know, he went through some lean years in the playoffs and maybe wasn't taking a task for it the way that he would if he was out front like Ovechkin is. You know, I think that I know I've said,

on this show before that for years and years and years, Ovechkin's been sort of the bulletproof vest for this entire organization. And he takes the shots afterward and a lot of people haven't taken their licks the way maybe they should have. But, you know, Baxter,

you saw it on the game winning goal in game three, his patience and finally getting over to that pass over to Ovi with a minute left to win that game. So, I mean, Baxter is a terrific elite player. He spent most of this season away from Ovechkin with Kuznetsov playing with Ovechkin. So I think that's part of the reason that maybe he was able to sink into the shadows a little bit more even.

But, you know, there's no question about the talent. There's no question about Nick Baxter's ability. So, you know, you get him out there when you can. And he just goes and does his thing. He's as dependable and predictable as anybody in the league. Yeah, that's well said. Okay, let's take a quick break here to hear from a sponsor. And on the other end of things, John is going to tell you guys why Tom Wilson is actually a saint.

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379 and free shipping. It's an incredible deal for a suit that will fit you better than anything off the rack ever could. Now, let's get back to the show. All right, John. Okay, we've skirted around this for 15 minutes now. It's obviously the big elephant in the room. Let's talk a bit about Tom Wilson and about the suspension and where you're at with the entire thing because and you know we should say as

disclaimer like it's always a tough balance to sort of someone who I mean you're obviously a fan of the team but you just even as a rational hockey observer you follow them on a day to day basis so you probably come at it from a different angle like than a regular fan would or obviously a fan of the penguins would so I'm kind of curious for your take on like where you're at with this entire thing and the dialogue and not even I don't even want to talk as much about the actual hit they got him suspended as sort of what's gone on throughout the entirety of this postseason. Sure. I mean, first of all, what I would preface it all with is that when there are these controversial hits, it's my personal belief that you should pretty much

ignore anybody whose favorite team is involved either on the giving or receiving end of it because their opinions are, you know, if their opinions on other things have some value, these certainly don't because they're colored with whatever biases they bring into it. And even when you try to divorce yourself from those, some of those are there. So, you know, you can go looking for a Penn's fan's opinion on that hit or a Capps fan's opinion on that hit or any other hits between these two teams over the years. And, you know, you get what you go looking for on that, I think. You're probably looking for a specific reason.

I don't think anybody's mind changes when they hear these opinions. You know, they go in. 100% of people felt the same way about Tom Wilson after game three as they did before game three. You know, and so that's sort of the leading edge of this thing. I think that there's no question that Tom Wilson is a guy who plays very much on the edge, sometimes over it, sometimes recklessly. In that respect, not entirely unlike Alex Ovechkin early on in his career. You know, it's the way that, and Tom Wilson doesn't have the other things to fall back on that Alex. Alex Ovechkin did in those years.

And, but I mean, Tom Wilson is, had a great year. You know, he had 14 goals. He had, I think, 35 points. He's a key penalty killer. And, you know, really carved himself out a role on that top line with Kuznetsov and Ovechkin and was very effective there. I think that the suspension itself in some ways was hard to square with the league's precedent with regards to these with regards to headshots you know you look at

the cadre hit in in the first round series against Boston right and and and what that resulted in and in some ways it seems like the the league took the approach where you know three borderline hits or four borderline hits or whatever equals one very bad one. They did what they did. They explained it well and, you know, if that's what they saw, that's what they saw. You know, I think that it's that the rules need to possibly be looked at with regards to these types of hits. And maybe if you don't want these types of hits in the game, then you look to, you look to,

make some rules about any contact with the head being a penalty like they do an international game. I think that's probably where the game's going to be headed at some point, right? Yeah. Well, no, you're right. I think here's where I'm at with it. I generally stay away from waiting into these discussions on Twitter

because there's just not much to gain from it. It seems like, you know, as you mentioned, people have their mind made up one way or another and they just want to yell about it. And it seems like you're not really going to have an actual intelligent conversation, like, with a lot of things. But, you know, you're right. They need to look into the rules.

I think I'm always in favor of a more aggressive punishment when it comes to stuff like this because, like, I think the player safety stuff is pretty clear. And I think that based on everything we know with head injuries and concussions and brain damage, it's something the league should take, should approach with extreme caution. And it's just not necessary. Like there's going to be things that happen over the course of a hockey game where they're unavoidable and whether it's, you know, taking a shot or or whether it's taking a hit while you have the puck and stuff like that. And it's like, that stuff's going to happen. It's a physical contact sport.

But then there's certain instances where it's like, was that really a necessary play? And it's not even. Sure. Not even necessarily, you know, you can go to the extreme and call it predatory. I think it's just like, it's just unnecessary ultimately. And so stuff like that, I'd really like to see it weed it out of the game. And it's disappointing because, as you mentioned, you know, I know. know Tom Wilson's an easy, a punching bag, and people like to make jokes about it and some of the

stuff he's done on the ice, but he is a valuable contributor to his Capitals team. And, you know, you just look at their on-off numbers this year on the ice when he was, especially playing with the top line, they were significantly better. And it makes sense he has the type of skill set where, you know, he can go after the puck and he can retrieve it and he can create a lot of extra additional space for some of those guys to operate with. And so that's the good, but then you see some stuff like this and it's like well even if the individual hit itself wasn't that bad if this keeps coming up as a topic for us and we have to keep every single game seemingly having dialogue about it like something needs to change you can't just keep your head and buried in the sand and just act like

everything is okay so i don't know that's it's a long-witted way of being saying that i didn't think the hit he got suspended for was necessarily super egregious but i'm fine ultimately with the punishment because i think something needed to change before like something really, really bad happened. I think that's largely fair. You know, but if you're a guy like Tom Wilson and, you know, one game earlier, he has that hit on Dumlin, which, you know, frankly, I could hear arguments that that was a worse hit than the hit that he got suspended for, right?

So I think everyone would like some consistency here. If you had given him a game for that hit, you know, obviously the game four hit, or the game three hit, rather, doesn't happen if the game two hit gets suspended or whatever. But, you know, the guys, anybody involved with the game, whether you're talking about officiating a single game or a standard set by the Department of Player Safety or whatever,

they'll tell you they don't care whether you let them play or whether you call it strict. They just want it called consistently so they know what's going to be, what's going to fly and what isn't. And so they know how to play the game. And I think that's something that's maybe lacking a little bit right now in the league. I have no problem taking hits like the one Wilson got suspended for out of the game. I really don't.

But, you know, it's got to be a consistent implementation of the rules and the enforcement of the rules. to get to that point. Otherwise, you know, I understand the frustration with the inconsistency. Well, I mean, yeah, and that's a larger topic here. And we've seen this. This isn't the only series. We've seen this throughout the entire league, this postseason, you know, I guess, you know, whenever you say something like this, people always go. It's been happening all season. It's been happening throughout the year. But it's like, obviously, there's more emphasis and more attention placed on it here in the postseason. And the officiating has just been all over the place. And I don't necessarily, think it's like it's skewed in the favor of one team or another or something i don't think it's biased i think it's just been largely inconsistent is the best way to put it and it's a lot of i imagine as a player

would be exceptionally frustrating because you know whether it's game to game or period to period or series to series or what or what have you um you know one thing flies in one instance and then you're like okay well i can get away with this i can keep doing it and then all of a sudden it's cracked down upon and vice versa and it just it's it's frustrating for the players it's frustrating for the players it's as a viewer because you don't know what to expect and you don't ultimately want these games determined by, you know, bad calls. And it's, it's, I, there's going to be a certain amount of human error and human element involved in officiating and you're never going to nail it down to a science. And I, I'm very aware of the fact that it's a very difficult job, especially in real time. A lot of this stuff looks a lot easier with the benefit of instant replay and slow motion. But it's, it seems like there's got to be a better solution because every single series, it seems like, you know, you know, you can point to at any game and go, oh, these are the five things that were completely egregious that everyone was justifiably freaking out about after the game. Yeah, no question. And, you know, it took away from what I thought in game three was a really entertaining hockey game,

played between two very good teams back and forth, up and down. Caps get the game winner with a minute left. So, you know, but all anybody could talk about afterwards was this hit. And, you you know, rightly so in a lot of ways. It was a big injury and a controversial hit, and the leagues kind of made its bed and has to sleep in it with that. You know, you would think that they'd want to focus more on Crosby versus Ovechkin in a 4-3 back-and-forth game

in round two. But, you know, this is their bed, you know, they're sleeping in it. Yeah. Yeah, you don't think the storyline of officials versus common sense is an as appealing of a matchup. Yeah, it's close. It's, and honestly, I'd say, um, like, it's actually been not too bad in this series. It's obviously, uh, glaring instances, but like, you know, you look at that Boston, Tampa Bay series and there's been, like,

very pivotal stuff that's either been missed or, um, overcompensated for. And yeah, it's, it's a shame, right? And this is like, I keep coming back to this. People sometimes say I'm a bit, uh, overly negative on Twitter. And they're like, do you even, enjoy your job. Do you even like hockey? It's like, I love hockey. That's why I'm so disappointed with stuff like this because the actual sport itself is so beautiful. And at its essence is, you know, we've seen it this postseason. The action is just so jam-packed. It's going back and forth. It's exhilarating. It's a throw ride. And then we ultimately wind up coming back and just having these conversations over and over again about officiating, about suspensions,

about face-all violations. And it's all this stuff where it's like, why, it's so NHL that this is the stuff. These are the takeaways that we are we're talking about after some of these games. Yeah. I mean, in a lot of ways, the league can't get out of its own way. And, you know, I agree, you know, great, great sport league need some work. Yeah, that's one way to put it. Okay. Enough about that. Let's move on. I don't know, what else is there to talk about with this Capitol team? We could talk a little bit about Holpey. We could talk about John Carlson and the deployment of the defenseman. I don't know. Like, which, Which way do you want to take this conversation?

You're the Caps guy here. Well, we can talk about Brayden Holpey. You know, the guy obviously had a rough year, to put it bluntly. You know, he entered the year and was probably on just about everybody's, you know, top five goalies in the league list. I think it would be fair to call him elite. I don't recall exactly where your goalie experts like Nick had him. preseason.

I think around there, around that like three to seven range, somewhere in there. Yeah. I mean, fair, but, you know, clearly he didn't live up to that this year. And luckily for the Caps, they had Philip Grubauer step in and step up. And I think that Barry Trots was absolutely correct to give Philip Grubauer the start in the Columbus series. And I would have actually started him in the two games that he got the starts in. So good on Trots there. But to see Holpey come back in and really have a total, you know, so far redemption has been good to see, you know, he's obviously you never want to see an elite athlete lose it.

So it's good to see it come back. But it's also good for the Caps to see their franchise guy rebound the way he has. I thought he was very good again in game four. He seems more or less locked in and playing at the level that Capps fans have grown accustomed to. And it, you know, it sets up an interesting offseason with Grubao being a restricted free agent and having really proven himself for stretches in the regular season. We'll see what they do in that situation because they've also got Ilya Samsonov coming over. He was, you know, that former first round pick that they,

they made in goals. So they're getting crowded in net, and they got the big ticket guy. They got a guy who's up for a contract, and then they've got the blue chip. So it'll be interesting to see what they do there. Well, it's ultimately, I guess, a good problem to have. I mean, you look around the league in some places.

It's like, they don't even have the one reliable option. So having, it's a good problem to have. I think it seems like the writing is on the wall for, you know, they're invested in Holby here moving forward. and it seems like Grubaer is both ready for a large opportunity and financially it just seems like someone else is going to be able to sign him to the contract that he's looking for. But, you know, with Holpe, you mentioned the bad year and it was super just jarring to see him look so pedestrian and even be below league average after just being the epitome of consistency at a very volatile position for the past couple years. And, you know, you look at his postseason numbers and it's remarkable and it's the most Washington Capitol. thing ever where I think after tonight he's 35 and 33 but has a 9-31 save percentage for his postseason career and it's just like the fact that they've been hovering around 500 there and basically just trading wins and losses despite the fact that he's been out of his mind I think

he has the second highest say percentage in league playoff history for qualified goals and it's just like yeah it it makes sense that he's performing this well I you know he did have the rough regular season but it seems very reliable and it seems like you know what you're going to get from him and it is good to see him back and for him because it was just it was just puzzling to see. Yeah, I mean, and at least heading into last year's series with Pittsburgh, I think it was. I think he had the highest career save percentage in the playoffs at right around 935 and the caps opposing the goaltenders in those same games were like at 9.3. 34 and a half or something like that, which is so capitals.

You know, in fairness, I think that that Hopi's career aggregate numbers may reflect a little better on him than sort of a game by game. Look at what he's done in some of the more important games that he's had to play, but no doubt he's compiled a terrific. career mark there and so it's good to see him back on track there. No, you're right about that. And obviously a lot of those goalie numbers against the caps are just Henrik Lundquist, so it's understandable. That one of that's going to be the case. But yeah, that one series, what was it? Was it 2014-15, I believe? I might be getting the year wrong, but it was the year they lost to the Rangers in game seven

in the second round. And I think in that, like, you know, in that series, Brainholpe, he had like a 950 save presented or something. And then in that game seven, he stopped like 44 or 46 shots or something and they still lost 2-1 and it's like that yeah that is probably the epitome but obviously you know um the penguins make a lot of teams uh a lot of goalies look silly and obviously uh the one aberration out of that entire playoff resume was that second round series against the penguins last year and you know his numbers so far in this series aren't necessarily overwhelmingly good but um i don't think that you know aside from that quick uh three goal outburst in game one like i think he's been really solid. And I think the goalcoming in general in the series has been really good, especially

with the firepower both teams have. So I don't think you can really point to anything in that regard. I know people love blaming goalies, but it seems like a lot of it is just really good offense and a lot of random bounces around the net that happened over the course of an NHL game. Yeah, it always is. I mean, I'd like to see the caps putting some more shots on Matt Murray. He hasn't, to me, to my lying eyes, he hasn't looked quite as sharp as I've seen him at some points in the past. But, you know, he's getting that same silliness that every goal he gets when they let in a few goals where the book is out on him and it's high glove, right? It's always every goalie. Every goalie struggle saving the perfect shot. Okay.

Good. Perfect. Good analysis. But yeah, the goaltending's been good. It's been a well-played series, you know. And I think that these last three games, I mean, I think realistically we're probably looking at three games, knowing how these things tend to sort out, should also, you know, continue along the same narrative lines. Well, I thought it has been an enjoyable series. I think in the past couple games, you know, obviously a lot of the storylines have gravitated towards the stuff we've talked about so far.

but it's also, the game has been bogged down a little bit, and it seems like both the teams have been a little bit undiscipline. It's been a lot of stop and start and a lot of penalties and power plays. And I'm perfectly fine with that because both these teams have such lethal powerplay units. But I thought, you know, this series, when it was at its best, and these two teams, when they're at their most fun to watch, was that early stretch actually in game one to start the series where they were just trading back and forth chances at five on five.

and I'm sure that both Mike Sullivan and Barry Trots don't prefer that type of hockey, and I'm sure it elevated their blood pressure. But just as a viewer, that's when both these teams and when hockey is at its apex when it's just free-flowing back-and-forth action and both the goalies were standing up to it. I believe there was only like the one goal scored before that outburst in the third period, and it was just a ton of chances. And I'd like to hopefully see a bit more of that as opposed to just both teams marching back and forth from the penalty box to their bench.

So, yeah, yeah, I agree. Game four, the flow just wasn't there. That first period, especially was just like unwatchable in my opinion. Yeah, game three, I think there were also a ton of icings. Yeah, I mean, it hasn't always been the prettiest, and no one, I think, wants to just get into a special teams competition. I don't think either these coaches do, despite all the talent they have. have on their power play units. And certainly fans, I don't think, want to just see that endless parade to the penalty

box like you're talking about. So, yeah, I think that the caps are probably more interested in bogging things down a little bit than the penguins are. I think the penguins would like to run free a little more. But after three years, you know, two years of running into these guys and having it end the same way, I think Barry Trott's. probably is up for trying something a little different. And the back and forth that seems to go on between these two coaches every year,

you know, we'll see who gets the last laugh. Last year, obviously, it was Sullivan. Yeah. Okay, well, so we're probably going to get three more games here, it seems, just based on the numbers I said earlier, 10 out of 16th Capital Series during the Mexican era, I've gone to game seven. It seems like we're headed for an 11th here. But, you know, other than not stating the obvious, like, yeah,

If the Capitals win here, it's great. They're going to make the conference final. They're going to move on to third round and keep playing, whereas if they lose, it's going to be the saw-out-the-same questions over and over again, and we're just going to be recycling all the dialogue that we've had over the past couple years. But just like, I don't know what,

let's say worst-case scenario, let's say the Capitals lose here, whether it's in six or seven games. Like, other than, I guess it seems there's going to be a coaching change based on the video we saw with Barry Trots and John Torterella after game one, where Trots seemed to be telling him that he was gone after this season, which is, I thought, a weird thing to say after winning a playoff series,

even if it's not necessarily a shocker based on what you heard come out this season. But, like, is that going to be the most obvious change? And then maybe obviously, like, Philip Gruber are being poached to another team. Like, it seems like, you know, I guess for the most part, this roster is kind of said. Like, you can't really, like, detonate or anything. You just kind of keep coming back and hope that you can get over the hump eventually. I don't know what else to how else to put it? Yeah, I think that Trots being done.

gone was a foregone conclusion for a while. You know, he obviously entered this season without a contract extension. Brian McClellan did not hire Barry Trots. They were brought in the same time and management had hired Trots. So it's not surprising that after having this many bites at the Apple, despite the obvious and significant regular season success, that the two parties would part ways after this season. So I think that that's going to happen, you know,

I wouldn't say regardless of anything that might happen in these next handful of weeks or whatever, but it's really hard to see Barrett Trots coming back next year behind the Caps bench. But beyond that, the big question will be whether they can resign John Carlson. and if they, well, if they can or can't, what does that make the rest of the roster look like? To me, Guy obviously had a career year. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him end up in that like five to seven range in Norris voting, if not, you know, maybe even a four. And I'm sure some voters had him in their top three.

So he had a terrific year, you know, goost his numbers by playing on that top power play as guys do. But, you know, he's obviously a key part of that unit. So the credit doesn't all go elsewhere. I think he's going to be, he'll make what he wants to make, right? I mean, a right-handed D that can play those minutes at his age and play all situations. he's going to write his own check. It's a question aware. I know the Caps would love to keep him and we'll try to do everything they can to keep him.

That's an awfully difficult dude to replace on the blue line. So, you know, they'll figure out what they have to do. And, you know, Brian McClellan's going to work his hardest to keep Carlson in the fold and see what else they can do. and, you know, it's going to be a dangerous contract, but, you know, if it's McClellan giving it to him and it doesn't work out, McClellan probably won't be here when it gets bad anyway, right? That's true. Yeah, it's not his problem to solve. It's interesting there.

I completely agree with what you were saying, but it's, you know, the wording you use is funny to me where you said, in describing Carlson, you know, the minutes he can play at his age. And it's like, I didn't even know if I know you meant that in a, in a positive sense. but I mean, obviously, the fact that he's turning 29 and you imagine that whatever contract he signs is going to be in the five plus year range of probably six or seven years in the fact that, you know, when you say those minutes, I don't, like, he plays a lot of minutes for sure. But, you know, especially this season, like, I, I'm not sure if the casual fan that wasn't, that hasn't been following the capitals closely would realize this because he obviously gets a lot of the attention and the accolades and the high point totals. But, you know, They lean on Niskin and Orlov very significantly defensively, and John Carlson's been playing with Michael Kepney in this series and more of a secondary defensive role. And it's, I'm just not sure. Like, I like him as a player. Obviously, the physical tools are very apparent.

And I think it's quite possible that he could do very well in a big role, big defensive role. But I'm just like, if you, I'd be very uneasy as a GM signing him just because I'm not necessarily sure, like, what player you're exactly getting. Like, it might be more. of a sort of second pairing guy that just thrives in the power play, which there's obviously value for. But if you're paying him as a top guy, he might not be that. So you know what I mean? It's kind of a dangerous situation just based on how he's been used in Washington the past couple years. Oh, I completely agree with that. You know, my opinion of him goes up and down a little bit, and it's not necessarily what you want when you're signing the big check as a guy that's a little bit

up or down. I do think he can play in the first pair with the right partner. Maybe more comfortable in a second pair role with any partner as he's played most of this season with Kempney or Christian Juice or even carried around Brooks Orpick a bit this year. He's definitely a durable defenseman, but he's got a lot of mileage on those tires. you know, I think that you and I and the people that listen to your show and the people who are more in tune with aging curves, the realistic aging curves, probably are a little more wary of the long-term deal for John Carlson. I think there are a lot of people in the hockey world who will say, oh, a 29-year-old defenseman, he's in his prime, right? He's just entering it. Yeah, it takes defensemen longer to develop, and he's right there right now. And you saw it this year. And, you know, all it takes is one, right? All it takes is one GM who says, you know what, we need this right-handed workhorse defenseman and we'll, you know, deal with years four through seven in years four through seven. But for these next three years, that's going to be a stud. And we need.

need a stud and this is our window so we're going to go for it. So, you know, ironically, you know, that's probably not the caps. But, you know, if the caps are looking at their window with Ovechkin and Baxter not going anywhere and, you know, T.J. Oshy still being productive on his long contract and, you know, Kizzov coming into his own, Orlov coming into his own, Niskin in here, maybe Vranen Berkovsky and guys like that. Maybe the caps do, you know, go all in for these next couple years before, you know, nuking the whole thing. But so, you know, I could see, if I had to bet, I bet the caps find a way to keep John Carlson.

That's my long-winded way of saying that. Yeah. I'd be very curious to see what those terms are going to be. But, you know, like, I think it's an important point to make where, like, John Carlson right now making, under $4 million on his past deal is obviously a great value. And it's one of those things where it's like if he does walk, it's not like the capitals are opening up this massive chunk of change to replace what he brought to the table.

And it's just, if they do, we'll let him walk. It's very easy to say they shouldn't do it. There's better ways to spend money. But unless you actually have a viable alternative or solution or plan of action, like it's not very useful. Yeah, and I think, you know, not every situation is created equal. I felt this way this past summer with Kevin Shannkerk, for example,

who obviously is a very talented player, but also flawed in certain ways as a defenseman. And, you know, when you hear a team like New Jersey, for example, was going all in after him and you're like wondering, oh, is he actually going to be worth that money? Well, you know, impactful defensemen like this very rarely become available. It's not every day that we see one, for one trades.

And it's, I think for a team like New Jersey again this summer, like John Carlson would move the needle quite a bit for them just because you're talking about him coming in and replacing what was probably a net negative in whoever would have been playing those minutes. So there's certain teams where it definitely makes sense that they would be very intrigued by John Carlson. And it makes sense. Like, why is it the capitals would be one of those just because I'm not sure how else

they're going to replace those minutes as much as I like a guy like Christian Jews or Madison Bowie. I don't think that they're ready or even capable to do that. No, they're not. And I think we'd also be remiss if in this portion of the show we didn't mention Nate Schmidt and letting him walk or letting Vegas poach him last summer in the expansion draft. And, you know, moves have repercussions. And Nate Schmidt sure would have looked good on that Caps blue line this year.

Yes. Yeah. Yeah, I share similar sentiment with you and people that listen to this podcast and follow me on Twitter know that I'm very high on H-Mitt. And you're right, that's a big loss. And there's certain decisions they made in the past with the contracts they've handed out that sort of handcuffed them there. And yeah, you got to reap what you so. But so if the big change is going to be behind the bench, obviously we'd have to see who that would be. And, you know, I hesitate to call it a win or a loss in any way because we know that a lot of these NHO coaches seem to have very similar flaws.

And they're the ones we mentioned with Barry Trots with certain player types they prefer and being too conservative and all that. And I just think what this capital team, though, like if they were to bring in a coach that was a bit more progressive or lenient or willing to play some of these young guys, I would be very intrigued because there's clearly, untapped potential there with a lot of these guys. And also, you know, they need to figure out some sort of, some sort of a plan to help provide a supporting cast for Alex Lovechkin. Like, you know, this year, obviously they got their hands tied a little bit with just how much depth they lost, but it's just, I don't know how many more years is guys going to be able to carry this big of an offensive load. I believe he scored the highest percentage of his team's goals yet again this season and it's like at his age and with all the miles and the type of way he plays. I mean,

he's clearly not slowing down in this postseason at all. In fact, he's playing as well as he has, but it's, it just seems unrealistic to keep banking on that. And I'd like to see guys, like Rana and Brokowski, actually get scoring opportunities, extended ones in top six roles and see if they can sort of take a bit of that load off and they're not necessarily going to take the car keys from Ovechkin. Like, it's still ultimately going to, most offense is going to run through him, especially on the power play. But there needs to, there needs to, to be something else beyond just hope he scores goals and then play Devonte Smith, Pelly, and Chandler-Stevenson types and give them a lot of 5-1-5 workload.

Yeah, I mean, I think that's right. You definitely are hoping that the Burkowski's and Branas take a step, sort of, you know, like Tom Wilson took a step this year and, you know, put up 14 goals. You know, if that's a guy, you can count on getting 14 goals every year, I think that you're probably pretty happy with that. And if you can get Berikovsky and Brana up around 20 goals, I think you're pretty happy there. If Shane Gersich turns into something, you know, maybe that's another guy.

Down the middle, obviously, with Kuznetsov, Baxter, and Lars Eller, I think that's a solid top three centers. So it's there. This team lost a ton of talent last summer. when you look at Nate Schmidt and Shaddenkirk and Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams and Carl Osner and, you know, anything else that they lost. They lost a lot, but there's still some pretty decent talent there. And I know that the cupboard is somewhat bare in Hershey and they don't have sort of the blue chip next wave guys necessarily lined up and ready to take over. But

you know, with a couple of the right moves, the talent should be, should still be there for this team to, to be a contender in the division. And with the right coach, maybe, maybe a little bit more than that. Yeah, one final thing. You know, we alluded to it,

but a lot was made this season about, you know, there's sort of pedestrian five-on-five numbers and how they outperformed what we would have expected. based on their statistical profile. And I know, was it, I believe, Isabel, who wrote a really great story about this right at the start of the playoffs about sort of how a bit of those numbers could be explained by them preferring a more shot quality approach.

And we've heard that tale time and time again with many teams. And it's tough to know how much of that is actually, you know, the truth in an actual concerted effort and how much of it is justification for an otherwise underwhelming performance. you know, like you obviously watch this team much more closely than I did this year. Is there, like, are you, are you buying into that? And do you think it's something that's going to continue moving forward, assuming this team for the most part is brought back next year? Like, or do you think, because it doesn't make sense, like, just based on the talent, especially at the top of the lineup that, you know, they would shoot at a bit of a higher rate and convert shots in the goals more frequently than most other teams would because of the firepower they have.

And it's not the best strategy. You'd obviously much rather have the puck more often than not. but if a team could play that way and get away with it, especially with what they are capable of in the power play and the goal tending, it would be this Capitals team. So I don't know, like is that something that you're buying into and you think would continue? Or do you think that it's just kind of one of those things that is just kind of being a post hoc explanation of what happened?

You know, probably a little from column A, a little from column B. Like you said, I think they do have above average finishing talent, up front and I do think they have above average goal tending and the combination of those two things should make them a team at five on five that isn't a 1,000 PDO team. You know, that shouldn't be their expected level, I don't think, based on the talent they have. They've consistently outperform that over pretty large samples.

So I think that that's fair to expect the, talent that's here to outperform their underlying metrics, whether, you know, whether that be making a 48% coursey team, a 52% goals for a team, or, you know, especially when you add the power play in a team that wins more games and they, you know, quote unquote ought to based on their their metrics. But I think that the reason that it kind of stuck out this year is something that I think I've mentioned before maybe on our own podcast is that they've always outperformed those coursy numbers in terms of their goals for percentage, right? And you don't necessarily notice it when it's 57% goals four and 53% coursey because it's a really good. team that's even outperforming their really good numbers. But where you notice it is when it's,

maybe it's that same 4% difference, but it's 48% coursey and a 52% goals for when you say, hey, wait a second, you know, this is, this team should be given up more than their, than they're scoring, but that's not what's happening. So I think when you straddle that 50%, that break-even line, things start to look a little different. And, So I think for the team, you could probably reasonably expect them to outperform those numbers. But if all that outperformance is doing is mitigating your crappy possession numbers, you're not really making the most of the talent you have. You know, you would think ideally that you would have good possession numbers and they should have the talent to produce good possession numbers in the right system and with the right coach. and then have that elite talent up front and that elite talent in net provide a bigger boost

to those already strong numbers rather than just mitigating your poor possession numbers. So I guess what I'm saying is I would expect probably the same things to persist, but hopefully they can get the possession. numbers up and go back to the team essentially that they were last year more like that, and perhaps even better than that. Yeah. Yeah, it's, man, I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but I thought that team last season was just from top to bottom, at least on paper, as good as I've seen in recent memory,

and the fact that, you know, they just ran into Mark Andre Fleury and the Pittsburgh Penguins, and it's going to be a team that is going to get lost in the shuffle historically. And, you know, a couple years from now, we're not. really going to think much about them or look back at them or really, you know, put much thought into it. But then that's ultimately a shame because that could have been one of those teams that was revered for years to come and pointed to as, you know, an example of just dominance and excellence as it should have been.

And it's not because all we really care about ultimately is rings in Stanley Cups and they didn't get one. And so it doesn't matter. And I think that's a shame. Yeah. I mean, that's right. When you look at what the team's done, I mean, I know that regular season is a whole different animal, but, you know, three straight years winning a tough division, two president's

trophies, that stuff's impressive. They run into the eventual Stanley Cup champion two years in row, and that's that. You know, when Brian McLean talks about the losses he had last year in the offseason, you know, people mocked him because he said, basically, we're having the Stanley Cup hangover without the Stanley Cup. you know, sort of like what the Blackhawks have faced a couple times. They loaded up. They had a plan. They put together the team that was good enough to do it.

And they just didn't do it. And then, you know, you get the hangover, as he says, that comes along with it. And I think that that's, I think it's a fair and accurate way to describe it. They were a very, very good team. They're on the tail end of that right now, it seems. and they have really just nothing to show for it more of less. Yeah, well, except for those memories, those sweet, great memories we have. Can't take those.

Yes. John, this was a blast. Plug some stuff here other than your, I mean, I guess your fine website is where you're going to plug, but what do you guys got going on? What's in the works and where can people find you online? I mean, I don't know. Don't follow me. It's not worth it.

Don't, it really get away from sports. You guys don't want to do this. It is not worth it. Go read a book, like shelter an animal or something. You know, I don't know. Do other things. You're a broken, broken, broken man. You know, you just find what makes you happy.

We're at japersrink.com. I'm at japersrink on Twitter. And we're just trying to get by date. day like everybody else. Oh, man, that's a somber way to end the podcast, but I didn't expect anything less from you. Well, it was a blast chatting, though, in all seriousness. Thanks. Good luck the rest of the series, and I'm sure we'll chat sometime down the road here.

Sounds real good. All right. See, man. The Hockey P.DoCast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey p.docast. Music