The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 235: It All Comes Down to This

Episode Date: May 9, 2018

Murat Ates joins the show to help deep dive the Jets vs. Predators series by highlighting the biggest takeaways from the first six games, and helping set the table for Game 7. Topics discussed include: 4:24 Takeaways and Trends from the first 6 games 11:05 Patrik Laine's goal scoring struggles 20:40 Goaltending and defensive structure by the Jets 28:30 Head to Head Matchups and Player Usage 36:20 Looking ahead to the keys for Game 7 47:00 The Playoff Format  Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Also sponsoring today’s show is Harry’s Razors. If you sign up with them today using the promo code PDO, they’ll send you a trial shave set free of charge that includes: 1) weight ergonomic razor handle, 2) 5 precision-engineered blades with a lubricating strip and trimmer blade, 3) rich lathering shave gel and 4) a travel blade cover.  Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. and joining him is my buddy Morad Atesh. Morad, what's going on, man? Hey, just having a nice sunny day in Winnipeg after game six lost and trying to get things ready for game seven. Yeah, the sign came out this morning, even after yesterday's Four-nothing defeat. Incidentally, it was kind of poetic.

The day started a little bit crisp and cold despite getting up to about like 30-something yesterday, but it warmed up throughout the day. I think that Winnipeg's going to be okay. Yeah, yeah, no, I definitely will. hopefully after this podcast, I'm sure there's going to be a lot of Jets fans that are going to be listening. Maybe they'll have a sunnier outlook or disposition about this series heading into the game seven. You know, I haven't really talked about this series much yet on this podcast just for a number of reasons.

And the most kind of prevalent one is, you know, it's made for great viewing how back and forth it's been. It's been sort of a roller coaster ride where one team goes ahead. And then the other team bounces back and it's been just back and forth. than it makes for great viewing, but in terms of doing this podcast, and as analysts, it's really kind of topsy-turvy, and it's tough, it's been tough to get a grasp on because whenever you think you really got to figure it out that one team has a very, you know, particular advantage over the other. All of a sudden, there's an adjustment made, and it goes back the other way, and I don't know, it's been, have you, as someone who's been following the series very closely and covering it on a

day-to-day basis, have you sort of felt that roller coaster ride experience? Yeah, it's been pretty incredible. think that six games in were tied at 338 to 338 for shot attempts at 5-on-5, that the shots and solves are 177 each. There's a difference in goals of 1 at 5-on-5 and high-age scoring chances as well. That doesn't represent the individual games being exactly split down the middle every single time. For example, you know, Game 1, Nashville was in Winnipeg Zone for I'm in, to say about two-thirds of the game, but remarkably Jets defense boxed out perfectly in the

slot, and there was a lot of loose pucks that Winnipeg that got to so that the high-quality chances weren't really there. Winnipeg wins that one. Game opens up in game two, which should have been in Winnipeg's favor, but a couple of choice mistakes, like a Hendricks penalty, and a major breakdown on Ben Chirot chasing a big hit, Gibbs Arvison, an uncontessent flashout from in close as well as the overtime game winner. I mean, it's been a roller coaster. We could do this through every game. There are just moments that define, that define what happens throughout the rest of the game.

Because they do change and they do adjust and the trap comes out or the 131 comes out at certain moments, but they don't always lead with it. It's incredible. Like you say, it's tough to really sink your teeth into strictly numbers because so much of it is 50-50. And, I mean, like, how exciting is a coin flip. But when you watch it with your eyes and see it. the roller coaster in front of you, it's the fastest and in my mind the best series in the playoffs so far.

Yeah, it's been undoubtedly the most compelling series of the bunch. And I think that, you know, the thing we should say is generally when stuff seems like this obvious or this preordained as this matchup and this collision course between these two awesome teams was, it's like it never really lives up to the hype. It's generally kind of a disappointment. But in this case, I mean, it really has lived up to all those expectations just in terms of the level, the hockey's. been played at and the back and forth nature of it. And as you mentioned, it is a lot of,

most of the numbers are sort of 50-50 and, and the projections even for this game seven. But we have some time here to really kind of dig into some of the bigger underlying trends and topics that I've noticed as the series gone along because we do have this three-day break here before game seven. And I don't know, what's, where do you want to start with this? I mean, I've got like a few points here that I think are, have been the notable takeaways so far, but, you know, you've been following these games very closely. What sort of after these six games now, what if someone hadn't watched them and was just asking you, Morat, what's, what's been the big takeaway? Like, what's sort of the underlying trend that you've noticed most from these six games?

What would you say that's been? I think the biggest takeaway is that when things are close and stuffy through the neutral zone and each team's only getting a little bit of offensive zone time, things seem to favor Nashville. and when Winnipeg has been able to sort of figure their way up the ice, they've had a lot more success. That's been the general trend that I see. And I mean, hockey, you sort of rinse and repeat, right? Get it out of your zone, get it into their zone,

get the puck to somewhere dangerous and try to score from there. The times that Winnipeg has sorted out the one-three-one, or better yet gotten out to a lead and sort of dodged that and forced Nashville to open up, things have gone a lot better for the Jets. And then there have been moments of greatness as well, like Philip Forsberg last night with the breakaway goal off the box out of Ben Chirot or that's like just highlight real between the legs move that he pulls for the second goal of the night. And it's one of those cases where they can play, you know, perfectly against each other. They're mirror images of each other almost on the forecheck.

They're mirror images of each other in so many ways. It's those unique moments that are sort of adding to the storyline. Yeah, no, I agree. I mean, you know, the common saying is styles make fights, and I think, the caveat is, you know, these are, we're talking about the two best teams in the league this season and they're both clubs that whenever you've been that successful, it's generally because you're versatile and you can sort of play any which way your opponent wants as well as they can. But yeah, watching these games, the one thing that really has stuck out to me was for the Jets, they've really had the upper hand when things kind of open up, when the game loosens up in the neutral zone, when the puck's just flying around back and forth. And, you know, I can really testify to that frantic pace because I've been tracking this series and going back, I've been watching live and then going back and rewatching it and trying to track some zone exits and stuff. And for the Jets, whenever it does elevate to that frantic pace, which we all love to watch, it seems like their high-end talent really starts to shine. Yeah, the top end talents on Winnipeg's forwards, I mean, especially now that they're back

to full health with Matthew Perrault, the four lines that they're able to run with when you have little Perot and sometimes Nick Euler's on line four. They're more than adequately stacked, and they definitely have the finishing ability. Patrick Lainey hasn't quite lit it up as we've expected perhaps so far. To me, getting through that zone is the most important thing. And I was talking to Paul Stasping about this last night after the game. In game four, Nashville was able to go up to nothing on Subban's power play goal. and then just shut it down.

It was the one three one. It was the trap that everybody was talking about. It was the storyline. And as a matter of fact, for a solid 10, 12 minutes, Winnipeg had nothing. Its possession fell off of a cliff. But an adjustment that Winnipeg has made and actually continued to make, even though they were losing,

they had some success with this last night. On those zone entries, they're flying two-wingers to the Nashville, the blue line, and just going for the simple redirect chip. And what Stadley was telling me was that that read, takes all three of the forwards being essentially on the same page because it relies on a lot of context. How many guys does Nashville have in the neutral zone? Where each team's at with respect to their line changes?

How much speed do you have coming up to the A's? So when they get it right, they can run the redirect play in, and the guy who chips it isn't F1 anymore. The other two guys have to be in there a little bit faster. And if they can get in there, as we all know, possession-wise, it's more effective to skate over the line. But when you can't do it, you've got to be quick. and you've got to turn pucks over.

And Winnipeg has had some success with that. I think that's one of the biggest adjustments that kind of came about halfway through the series after game four just shut them down. Right. Well, especially when you watch from the zone entry defense perspective, as you're alluding to, I'd say, you know, P.K. Sue Ben and Ryan Ellis, especially on that right side are as good as it gets in this league at defending their own blue lines. So that obviously presents a different set of challenges.

And I think, you know, it's a testament to both how great the series have been and also the predators themselves and the job Peter Alaviolet has done is, I think it took those first couple games. And the Jets really kind of threw a haymaker at him and just showed them that, you know, their speed is, is such a tough thing to deal with. And I think, you know, for Nashville, I imagine most teams they'd play in a series. I think they'd be perfectly content playing this brand of back and forth, up and down, track, meet hockey, because they do have the players who can play that way. But they just sort of realized that that was a really, really dangerous proposition against this particular Jets team. And so they sort of had to recalibrate and readjust.

And I think that's where some of these hockey series are most interesting or compelling for an X's and O's perspective when you sort of see the hand your other team has. And then you have to make the adjustments accordingly and draw it out in a long series. And, you know, it helps in games three, four, and six, you know, jumping out to early leads and allowing yourselves to really load up in the neutral zone like that and sort of choke the life out of everything Winnipeg is trying to do. So I guess, you know, if you're looking ahead to game seven and what the keys are to victory for both teams, I imagine for Nashville. I think in these broadcasts, we generally hear them talk about how certain teams have a certain record that's so good when they jump out to an early lead. I think that's often kind of overblown because, as we know, even scoring the second goal in the game is sometimes just as important. But I think in this particular instance, there might be something to the fact that Nashville getting off to a good start might actually be the difference between winning and losing. Yeah, absolutely.

especially because we have now tacit evidence that they genuinely change their style of play when they get that lead and it becomes paramount for that first goal part of me becomes absolutely paramount it's really funny as you were speaking there I was thinking like there might not be

two teams in the league with as powerful of knockout punches like on all four lines I mean with respect to Tampa they especially give them credit it as well, but between Nashville and Winnipeg, there's such good knockout punchers and to watch them sort of sink into almost counterpunch mode sometimes because that pressure is so high. You know, like you say, goals are rare events.

That first goal is key because, well, hey, it gives you the lead and that's a huge advantage, or at least it should be, even though this year's seen some leads flip back and forth. But I think as cliché as it is, I think that analytics spoke and I-test spoke and all of that sort of stuff can sort of come to the same conclusion on this. That first goal on Thursday night is going to be a huge deal because it changes how these teams play and there's distinct strengths and weaknesses for each team depending on whether it's opened up or tightened down.

Yeah. Okay. Well, and this is why I'm a broadcasting professional because the natural segue here talking about goals is the goal scoring drought for Patrick Lainey. And, you know, he, I was looking at some of the numbers and it's remarkable, you know, based on the regular season you had and sort of the two years worth of data we have on him now and just knowing that it seems like for at least this part of his career and extending through his prime, I imagine he's going to just sort of break all expected goal models and shooting percentage

expectations and he's just going to be one of those guys that's an elite sniper. And so it's kind of disconcerting when you see this type of a stretch where I believe dating back to the Minnesota series, he's only got the one goal in nine games. And that goal came when it was, that game was sort of over already for game four. you look a bit closer and you just all the data suggests that this is just one of those things where he's getting incredibly unlucky and it's obviously happening at the worst time and if this for the regular season I think everyone would be writing articles about you know just give a time regression is going to take hold eventually he's going to break out for you know a stretch where he has like

six goals and four games here but obviously for both line and the jets I don't imagine that that idea sort of is much consolation considering during the fact that they might only have one game left in the season. So I don't know. Like watching this, have you noticed anything different about him? And it's so silly to me because sometimes when a guy just has poroac like this, you know,

the talking heads on TV just go on and on about how the guy's pressing and about how he's changing his game. And sometimes that might very well be the case. There's obviously a human element to the fact that if things are going right, maybe you start acting differently out there. But at the same time, just based on the show. he's generating, the looks he's been getting, just what I've seen from the video,

it doesn't necessarily seem like he's changed the game that much, do you think? You know, sincerely, I also don't think that he's changed the game too terribly much. He does have six assists through the playoffs, and some of that has come. I mean, he banked the goal in off Stasney the other night, and Sassany also got a rebound off of a line shot earlier in the series. So in game one, pardon me, for, I think what big. became the game winning goal in game one. So good things are generally happening when he's on the ice.

I haven't seen him absolutely put a hole in the net like he sometimes does. He is that 1% player or less than 1% player who can break those models because he can score from anywhere. What I've seen, as far as I can tell, he's getting to the same general areas. He's shooting in the same general frequency. On the power play, he's had a shot taken away a little bit more against Minnesota and, well, as you saw for that breakaway opportunity that Johanson

had by intercepting the Buffaloin pass, I'm not sure that he's getting quite the same service that he would get against a regular season team that maybe, I don't know, didn't have as much time to game plan about it. Peter Labio let was very, was fairly confident

that he was going to stretch out his expand the box yesterday and there's a little bit of chatter about that post game that he felt that his wingers could be more aggressive in challenging those plays. At the end of it, you know, at the end of it all, I think when you have a guy with that shooting, talent shooting as much as you can, as long as he's healthy, which I think he is, those goals will come. And if you're following Winnipeg through the first time of the season,

what he's really due for is just calling himself out in the media because every time he's pumped and called himself a terrible player in public, he would then go on another huge goal-scoring Taryn. It seems to be a tricky player that could just be perception as well. I mean, this is a long-winded way of saying, you know, trust the process, but when you have one game left,

that goal would make a huge difference, and I think it would settle a lot of minds of these. Well, it is one of those things where, you know, what might be generally considered a bad shot or a player that looks like they're pressing and kind of playing a different brand of hockey than they normally would if they're taking shots from the perimeter or something like that. Like for a guy like

that might very well be a good shot. And, you know, good stuff does come from when he's putting the puck on net. And thanks to a site like Natural Statrick, we can sort of see certain things. Like, you know, he's generating a ton of rush attempts. And I believe no one's created more rebounds than he has in this postseason. And just the general volume he's creating. But he's also struck iron four times, I believe. And if one of those goes in or a couple of them go in, all of a sudden this isn't really a story. But it makes sense that with how closely contested this series has been. And they're a lying on him and aren't going to need more from him. And when you see a guy like Kyle Connor, for example,

breakout in that big game five, obviously line eight doing something similar in game seven could make the difference between going on in this postseason or going home and watching the Predators play on the Western Conference final. Yeah, absolutely. And I guess, you know, if you're making any predictions, then you ask yourself things like exactly what you were just saying. Well, is he getting the looks?

Well, yeah, you've got the rush attempts. He's creating rebounds. He's Winnipeg's shots leader through the playoff. off so far, 37 shots in the 11 games. So more than three shots a game is a pretty good rate for him. That's on par with his typical shooting rate. So, yeah, if you're making long-term bets, he will break out. And I think the special thing about Winnipeg and about Nashville is that they're just so superlatively deep that, you know, they don't need it to be him.

It would be great. But it could also be, you know, Nick Eler's finding the back of the net. Kyle Conner continuing to feel it or even just those passes that Shikley gets in the slot from time to time. I mean, on the power play, a Mark Shikley slot shot has about 25% chance going in from that spot. It's one-timers are one in four. So to think that the death power play could go

over on a night, well, that sometimes happens, but you also don't expect it to last long term going forward. You know, and the special thing about a guy like Lainer, I think he really has reached this level. and I've talked about this on this podcast a bunch in the past, but when we get more of that tracking data and we'll be able to sort of quantify this a bit more, but it's sort of that idea of the gravitational pull

a star player has on the defense and dragging defenders closer to them and potentially opening up more space for his teammates. And we sort of see that with our eyes in effect with lining on the ice already, where I believe it was game one against the wild, for example, where Mark Schifley scored a beautiful power play goal, and he's like wide open there in the slot.

and you're wondering, okay, like, what kind of a breakdown is that from the Minnesota Wild Penalicle? What are they doing? And then you look at it a bit closer. And a lot of it is just created by the fact that Michael Granlin doesn't really want to leave Patrick Klein's side. And that creates a great look for his teammate. And, you know, you see stuff like that, which is obviously a bit more subtle. But then you see him using a shot as a weapon, not necessarily by firing it onto the net, but actually drawing the defenders and kicking it out to a, to Bufflin for one of his goals in that game three comeback.

So he only has the one goal in this series. but honestly just watching, going back and watching some of these games recently, I haven't necessarily seen anything wrong. I think he's been playing perfectly fine, but I understand we just went through this with Austin Matthews in the Boston Bruins series. Some of these young star players have such lofty expectations, so when the counting stats aren't necessarily there, I understand why people are freaking out.

But I think in this case, honestly, he's played fine. Yeah, I just tell that to the heart rate of your average Winnipeger at this particular time of this season. They don't have time for that argument? You know, I wonder about that. I think the heart attack, the heart rate mirrors the shot rate right now, which is good for shooting, not so good for the heart. All right, Marat.

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You know, one other trend that I've known. noticed in this series. And it's been sort of going on all season, you know, with the year Connor Hellibucks had and how big of a difference he made to the Jets and being awarded with a Bezna trophy finalist nomination for his effort. You know, some of the conversation that's been going on in the dialogue has been, you know, the Jets defensive structure and how they've really worked on that this season and improved it. And through the regular season, we did see, I believe they gave up the third fewest scoring chances against the 5-1-5 and the fourth fewest high-danger shot attempts. So, you know, those are pretty good indicators generally that they're tightening

things up and doing a good job of clearing out around their goalie and making life easier for him. And we've seen that in stretches this, in this series in particular, you know, in that game one, the shot counter was heavily skewed towards the predators and they seemed to have the puck and the territorial advantage of the entire game. But for the most part, I'd say the Jets did a pretty good job of kind of clearing out around Hellebock, because I think you, as you alluded to boxing out and they limited the great A chances and we've seen some of that in this series. You know, how much stock do you actually put into that? How much is the fact that sometimes when they're not giving up goals is just because

Connor Hellebock is playing at a higher level than the Jets have seen from their goalies in recent years. I think what Winnipeg has working in its favor is that all of those things are true. So I know that last summer they took a good long look at the types of scoring chances that they were giving up. And, you know, I've heard Palmary's talk about shots off the rush and about scoring chances from certain areas or off of certain types of puck movement through scenes. And so I do sincerely believe they went to town on kind of attempting to prevent those. And certainly, if you look at, you know, their season-long heat map or the staff that you just cited,

they definitely have had success with that. Another thing that they've done, I think, particularly well this season is they've initiated a forecheck further up the ice. I'm going to go ahead and say that it's. it's quite likely they spend less time in their own zone, which would also have a measurable impact on those scoring chance rates, because they've put so much confidence in a defenseman pinching at the line with a forward coming back for support.

And every little thing that you can do that extends offensive zone time, you know, most of the corollary to that is that it takes away some of the time you're spending in your own zone. All of that said, all of those are good things. Connor Hallibuck has had an incredible season, season. We're past the few games mark, and I know goalies can streak for a couple of seasons, but he's got a long career prior to last year of actually doing quite good relative to the leads that he was in. It might have been a safe play to predict the bounce back, but I think to

Hallibook's credit, he went to work last summer. He worked with a new movement coach, Adam Francilia. They're communicating with him and the Jets coaching staff as a well. Wade Flaherty in terms of goal-tending coach. doing all of the right things is a big part. He says all of the right things. He certainly sounds confident when you talk to him. You talked about a big game experience today heading into game seven. Every, you know, every subjective thing, every objective thing that you can find says that he's had just a monstrous season for Winnipeg.

And when you hear the Jets players themselves ask, and they get asked this all the time, the cliche question, well, what's different this year? most of them point to defense and goal tending. And I think that, you know, that's, they're well, what am I trying to say? They're perfectly right to space. Well, it presents a tricky proposition for the Prederors. Like if you're yourself in Peter Labia Letchus and you're sort of game planning about how you want to approach playing the Jets, you know, we talked at length in this podcast so far about how, you know, the Jets seem like they would favor playing a more open, looser game through the new. neutral zone and trading chances back and forth because they do seem to have a higher-end

forward talent than the Predators do. But at the same time, if they are playing a more defensively sound and kind of responsible game in their own zone, then when things stagnate, I imagine for the Predators, it's tougher to generate looks. I mean, they do have the vaunted blue line and the offensive talent from those guys like Yossi and P. K. Suban, but when you're just bombing away shots from the point, that doesn't necessarily, you know, translate to a lot of success either, especially if Connor Helleba can see the puck and he's not giving away a lot of rebounds. So it's tricky where I imagine you want to find that fine balance between creating your own offense, but also at the same time not completely unleashing the jets to just kind of wreck havoc on

you in the transition game. Yeah, and I think what you're describing is kind of the story of game one was that all of the shots were in Nashville's favor, but there was this kind of horseshoe effect where they were all coming from so far away. And then in the middle, things were getting clogged up. And that's a lot like what Winnipeg faced against Minnesota in round one, is that the middle was really quite clogged up. And they had to open things up by going back and using the points. And I think the word that you used was balance. And to me, you open up one opportunity by trying out the other one.

So for Nashville, I think what they had to learn from that was it wasn't okay to just bomb away from the outside and then try to go to the middle afterwards that they had to kind of move the puck around. the zone and then attacking waves into the middle from outside. The more you have to respect one option, the more the other one opens up as a legitimate thread, just like you said about when it takes power play, as low at Patrick Lining. So I think that Nashville has actually improved that throughout the series, and even in game five, which Winnipeg won, Nashville was doing a much better job of moving the puck around the zone and then into the middle. They were attacking in waves much more like a

five-man unit than just gaining a zone and deferring to their own blue line. Yeah. I think that... Yeah, go for it. Sorry, go ahead. No, no, no. Finish your thoughts. Sorry, I didn't mean to cut it off there.

Yeah, I just, I think that it's interesting. One of the most compelling things to me about this series is that is how many style changes that we've seen, you know? And I don't really think that Winnipeg can clear 100% of 50-50 battles out of its own slot as it did in game one for an extended period of time. Right. But at the same time, I think that Winnipeg Sport Chick has gotten progressively more effective throughout the series as well. Yeah, no, it has.

And we should give some love to, you know, I've been talking a lot on this show about how the Jets have a higher end of talent up front. And, you know, we've seen whether it's been Philip Forsberg individual greatness or Victor R, it's in, you know, both the kind of the havoc he's been causing around the net, but also we've seen them break loose a few times in transition coming down that right wing and just hammering away slap shots. And then Kevin Fiala, of course, there's been a couple guys there that the Predators do have game-breaking talent as well themselves that the Jets have to contend with defensively. It's not just necessarily a completely one-sided thing. I just wanted to get that out there because I know that there's probably Predators,

fans at home sitting going like, oh, what about our guys? The Jets aren't the only ones that have talented forwards. So I wanted to get that caveat out there as well. Yeah, definitely, definitely fair to say. I can't imagine two faster or more skilled teams going at it than these two. And, you know, because I study and pay more attention to Winnipeg, I definitely use their names more often and talk about what Winnipeg does more often. But, yeah, best team in the league for a reason.

Neither of these two teams is a Cinderella story. So, you know, I was digging into the matchups a little bit, and now that we have six games worth, you can really sort of start to see trends unfold in terms of how the respective coaches want to go about defending the other team or matching up. And in this series, like, especially in the home games in Nashville, we've seen Peter Leavriolette has really leaned on going with Suban and Ekholm against that Shifley line, and that makes sense.

I know in round one, they used Yossi and Ellis more so against the Aves' top forward group, but I imagine that just had to do with the fact that, you know, Nathan McKinnon was on that line and they were trying to go speed versus speed, whereas in this matchup with Shifley and Wheeler, you've got a bit more meat to that line. so they're trying to physically combat them. But other than that, I mean, like, it doesn't really seem like even when they've had Yossi and Ellis out there versus the line A line A line.

It's been pretty evenly matched. Like, a lot of these numbers come around to like 50%. And I guess that doesn't make for the sexiest storylines when you're trying to describe what's happening, because it really does seem like, you know, that top four on the blue line for the Predators versus the top two scoring lines for the Jets has been very evenly matched just from,

maybe not necessarily a goal perspective, but from definitely from the shot metrics. Yeah, I see the same way as you do, Dimitri. It's interesting that we talk about Nashville in a top four and bottom two way, and certainly, you know, they have that superlative talent

between Yosie Lekholm and Suban. Erwin and Weber have made impact in the series as well. Weber with the goal, he saved a goal off the line as well. It was his rebound that Ryan Hartman buried for the first goal in game four. And so it's been interesting to me that just in terms of results anyhow, I mean, obviously not in pedigree or what you might expect, all three pairings have had a positive impact. And I think that's one area that's hurting Winnipeg is that its bottom pairing of Tyler Myers and Ben Chirot have been victimized in moments,

in very substantial moments. So, for example, in Game 4, they were coupled, especially throughout the first period, with the Matt Hendricks' fourth line. And Peter Laviolet caught that matchup a few times, and it was one of the, it was the first period where Winnipeg controlled the flow except for when those five guys were on the ice,

and it eventually led to that Hartman goal. Similarly, that Arvison blast in game two came with Ben Chirot chasing a big hit in the neutral zone, changing what was a 2-1-2 into a 2-on-1 with lots of time and space. And even actually last night in game six, it was Chirot, who Boresburg made really an excellent play on that. I could have beaten a lot of people to box him out for the breakaway. So results-wise, I'd actually think that the Winnipeg Jets are being hurt by their third pairing

more so than Naspel is, which I don't think was the story heading into the series. Well, we've seen very clearly, both in this series and in the past that Paul Maurice trusts Dustin Bufflin to eat up a ton of workload and play him as many minutes as possible. You know, at times, I think his usage of the Josh Morrissey Jacob Truba pairing, and particularly in terms of how frequently he's willing to use them has left a bit to be desired, whereas with the predators, I mean, we've seen, you know, you mentioned the matter when Anianic Weber had had a positive impact. and while that's true, you know, in game six last night, for example, both guys played like 11 minutes total, I believe, and that basically means it for the other 50 or so minutes. One of those top two pairings is out for Nashville, and I'm sure they feel much more comfortable when that's the case.

In a single elimination game like this, and maybe even moving forward in the Western Conference Final and beyond, do you see the fact that that third pairing has struggled as a sign that Palmary's might be more willing to really just unleash those top two pairings and play them much more? think that just based on the way they've played all season and his philosophies that he'd always go for a more balanced approach with those three defense pairings. You know, I think that the lesson there is that he should lean more heavily on those top

two pairings. I'm not sure that he does. You'll often see Tyler Myers take extra shifts at even strength elsewhere in the lineup. Sometimes it doesn't buffling in other situations to get more minutes. And it doesn't end up as felted as what you described for what happen with Nashville. I think that that's a mistake because you have Josh Morrissey and Jacob Truba who are playing against top matchups and

correct me if I'm wrong on this, but the last time I checked, they were both well above 65% in expected goals for the series, which is incredible given the matchups that they're dealing with. And even in talking to those guys and how they manage their switches,

the type of communication that they have, and then watching it unfold, I would trust no two Jets better in a two-on-two scenario just in terms of holding on to their man or switching off their mat or communicating in terms of managing their defensive zone better than Morrissey and Truba. For me, what I would look for in Game 7,

especially after a two-day rest, given that it's a winner-take-all scenario, is exactly what you describe. I would want, for Winnipeg's, for Jets' fans' take, for Paul Maurice to lean very heavily on Truba and Morrissey. I think they've had terrific results by eye and by spreadsheet. Yeah, yeah, I know. It's obviously one of those things where there's clearly a point of diminishing returns

where at some point if the guy's fatigue, you don't want to ride him into the ground. But with that one game and the rest before, as you mentioned, I imagine if you're going to go out, you want to go out swinging with your best players and it'd be a shame to do so because of your third pairing being exposed. So let's take a quick break here to hear from a sponsor. And on the other end of things, let's look ahead to that game seven then. We're going to take another quick break here in the Hockey-Ocast to talk about another sponsor today's show, and that is Harry's Razors.

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Now, let's get back to the show. You know, let's map out a blueprint here for both teams. I know we've kind of talked about it a bit on the margins, but it does seem like when I'm thinking about it, you know, it's really a raw deal. I'm not breaking any ground here for the Jets that they couldn't seal that thing in home in game six, just because I was looking at some of the models. And, I mean, obviously, yes, to be expected. They went from being, like, 75% favorites to win this series before that.

that game down to 45 now and both these teams are really evenly matched i assume that margin they're favoring the predators just has to do with home ice advantage and even though we've seen winnipeg capable of taking games there as they've done twice already in this series um it's obviously more of an uphill battle so i don't know i guess that that's a good place to start just with um like what do for the jets to take this game seven um what would be an ideal scenario and i imagine you're gonna talk about how the predator is not jumping out to an early it would probably be a good start.

Yeah, that would be a major start. You know, in a one game sample, game flow, possession, all of that stuff, it certainly matters because it gets the puck into good areas of the ice. But for Winnipeg, it's got to avoid the Victor Arvison miracle tip. And all of that sort of stuff,

any bounce that can lead to a one-nothing goal where Nashville can then maybe sit back a little bit more staunchly into its one-three-one. You know, not that a team can really protectively against Winnipeg forever, but that would be a major shift in the game. So if Winnipeg can move through the neutral zone with a reasonable amount of success, make the right reads in terms of what's in front of them as to whether it's going to be an entry with possession or, sorry, a carried entry with possession or a dump and chase and getting in with speed.

I think the neutral zone is honestly where that game is going to be won or lost. If that's the gatekeeper to the offensive zone where Winnipeg has so much success typically, and the neutral zone is also where they've kind of struggled for a little bit. So Palmary stresses a speed game, that's where it comes into play. There's also one interesting wrinkle about Winnipeg

and actually National Sports Check is very similar. and that they're happy to send a defenseman pinching up the wall with forward support. Is that Nashville a couple of times, as, you know, a Josh Morrissey or Jacob Trudeau will come up the line to those half, to that half wall. We'll just dump it right back as if they never intended to move the puck up that way in the first place, because I think they're a little bit familiar with what they're looking at coming at them. Right. So it's going to be all of those little plays that lead to putting the puck into into good situations. and, you know, as like you say, it's kind of boring to say, but all of these things add up to zone time,

and zone time is what's going to win this game. You know, both teams are so good offensively and have so much talent. If they can get the puck to the right places, you have to think that, you know, shy a miracle balance, so that that team's going to take the lead. Yeah, and in these games, it always, I mean, you know, it certainly could be decided by the big brand name players, but it does seem like this is sort of where those unsung heroes are made and the random balances here, there are puck battles that become glorified and become highlights for years to come. And you could certainly see that, you know, it's interesting you're talking about that breakout

and sort of some of those bounces. And we've talked about puck battles in this podcast so far. But for the Predators breakout, like they're one of those teams that they really like doing that lob play, whether it's with Ellis or with Suban or even at home, where they just, you know, sort of cannon it up all the way up in the air from their own zone into the offensive zone and hope their guys like Arvetson can win those puck battles, and they do seem to win them a higher percentage of the time than the 50-50 we typically expect.

So, you know, little stuff like that and whether the Jets are able to control that or whether the predators are able to use that home crowd and all that energy to win some of those battles. Like, as cliche as it sounds, that really is some of the stuff that these game sevens are decided by. Yeah, absolutely. And you know what, I have to be honest,

I'm a huge fan of the aerial play. You know, with the control of the puck that these guys have these days, And, you know, with the relative ease, but you're definitely going to be absorbed in contact, but to be able to glove a puck down and bring it to your stick. Like, I'm surprised it took until 2018 for, like, the aerial play to be that kind of frontier. Maybe it was Eric Carlson's past last season that did it. But I think these guys have the talent to exploit the fully three-dimensional space of the rink. And it's impressive to me that Nashville has done it as well as they have.

and, you know, every wrinkle, again, and when it comes to respecting options, right? If you have to respect that they might do that, then as Winnipeg, maybe you're backing both of your defensemen back towards your blue line and giving up a little bit of space between your defense and your forward that you wouldn't otherwise give if you knew that that option wasn't there. So every little wrinkle that Nashville can effectively run at you

in the neutral zone or breaking the puck up ice, it makes them that much more dangerous. And I love that play by them. I think it's very effective. just like you say. Yeah, yeah. It's all about playing the percentages. Obviously, it's kind of what the defense gives you.

In an ideal world, I'd gladly take like a clean breakout pass with a forward going with a full head of steam. But especially in the postseason when we see teams really kind of loading up in that neutral zone and a lot of teams deploy into one three one, it's much more difficult to create that space. And I think we're definitely seeing it more and more. And we've seen it more this year than we have in the past. I think the great example of a team that used it to success in previous years was

the Pittsburgh Penguins when Mike Sullivan. took over. They really seem to use that play a lot and get Phil Kessel and guys at Carl Hagelin going with a full head of steam. So yeah, it's all about having the personnel being able to execute it and what your other alternatives are, but the predators seem to do it better than anyone else. From Nashville's

perspective, you know, when I think about these two teams and from what I've seen, I do think the Jets have a bigger margin for air, just especially now that they're healthy and their four lines are configured the way they are right now, because for Nashville, like the blueprint really seems

to be what's happened in some of these recent games they've won where jump out that early lead. Peca René needs to hold up, which he has in a few games and a few other times, although he hasn't gotten much help in front of him. He's gotten pulled and generally hasn't played up this enough. And it's a lot of, like, I think the Predators just need to play that very sort of, it's like they need to play a perfect version of their game where they don't let the Jets really kind of wrangle loose and run wild. And so I'm going to be fascinated to see whether they're to do that for another game because while they've shown they can do it so far, the Jets are such a good team and they've made such a habit of doing this stuff

throughout the year that you can only keep them down for so long. Now whether that so long can extend to game seven or not, it remains to be seen, but I'm fascinated to see how it plays out. Yeah, likewise. And I think that that's true about Winnipeg being able to come at you kind of in waves. And, you know, Nashville can try water and then Borsberg can do something phenomenal. or any one of their lines.

But when you get down to it and you have a fourth line of, Brian Little has been quietly one of the most effective jets so far in this series and he's on the fourth line right now. When you say margin for error, I just think that, yeah,

Winnipeg has a few more options or a few more people that can hurt you. And, man, whatever's going to happen, whether it's a star that wins this game, whether it's a role player or a Tanev scoring yet another goal for some reason. like it's what we live for right i mean game seven is possibly other than next goal wins the the best phrase in the sports i'm hoping there's more scoreboard pressure in this game because i know that

we you know you said the stats earlier from just the overall series from how tight it's been and while that's true um other than that game two that went to overtime it seems like large stretches of this series have been played with one team being at least up a couple goals so while the other team might have been pressing and never really felt like the game was that for that much in doubt And I know some of these, sometimes these game sevens can really, you know, be very closely contested. And no one obviously wants to be the go to make a mistake and be vilified for it. So sometimes things tighten up and the game slows down. And I don't know, maybe that might favor Nashville a bit more if the stakes of this game impact the team's thinking and the team's approach.

And while it's very easy to, you know, say like, oh, these guys have been playing so many games, they're professionals. It's just another game. Ultimately, it does feel like, I know your colleague Pierre LeBron wrote about this today. but it does feel like there's more stakes in this game than your typical second round game seven just because like regardless of what happens in the series to come, it feels like whoever comes out of this series will at least have a very, very good chance of winning the Stanley Cup. So just the difference between a second round premature exit versus being a potentially a cup favorite

is such a massive disparity that I imagine that's got to be weighing on some of these guys. Yeah, and you know, like you say, they're professionals, but they're human beings, right? and this is one of the biggest stages that many players playing on Thursday night will have played on with some of the biggest stakes. So, you know, certainly I think that it's going to be on their minds. And, you know, whether that means that it takes, you know, everyone one shift and, you know, a hit or a good clean pass or something like that to get into the game, you do see those tentative starts oftentimes in games like this. you know, I have to think that that it's definitely in a lot of players' minds

and it might affect the opening to the game and that could be an area where Nashville has an advantage sort of just with the support of its crowd and all of that sort of stuff especially actually when you look at Game 5 because they opened up that period like a house on fire and that Winnipeg survived it was a big part of them coming back all of that stuff comes into play and it's just you know I don't know whether you're on the side I haven't heard you comment on this yet but like of this being a great shame or a great like just a phenomenal event that we're getting that we get this game seven so early on in the sound like a playoff well I'm of two minds like I think um from a bigger picture perspective and definitely like heading into the postseason it's one of those things where it seems flawed that the first and

the second best team in the league would be playing in the second round because you'd like to see more stakes involved. And, you know, when we think about some of this stuff in terms of legacy and team success over the years, you know, citing the fact that they made the conference final while ultimately you're falling short of your prize if you lose, it still seems like a greater accomplishment than a second round exit. And I'm sure a guy like Alex Ovechkin knows that all too well, for example. So it does seem like a shame from that perspective that one of these teams isn't going to be playing in a conference final, even though they probably should be. But at the same time, you know, I know the Jets have been banged up a bit and now they're finally

fully healthy. But for the most part, it really does seem like all the big guns on both teams have been healthy. And sometimes we know it as the case is later on in the postseason, that's not always true to form. So I'm happy that both teams have been firing on all cylinders and we've been treated to this matchup because, you know, sometimes you can project this stuff down the road and go, like, oh, this would be such a great conference final. and then there's a hiccup in the road or a team gets upset and you don't get to see it. So I think ultimately we're better off for having seen it,

but certainly we should keep having this discussion. And there's, it could be amended to be more optimal moving forward. For sure, that was so thoroughly reasonable about, I've talked about this too much over the weeks, trust me. Okay. From a storytelling perspective, though,

we are fortunate that it's Vegas waiting for the winner of this series because that is one of the most phenomenal storylines in all of sport right now. And so that, whether it's Nashville or Winnipeg, that they're going to have to go on and take on the seemingly unstoppable group of wild cards that nobody predicted would come this far, at the very least, what's waiting for them next series

isn't a letdown. You know, it's not a sin... It's a Cinderella story in a very different way and a never-before-heard or seen way, I think. So at least from a storyteller, perspective, I think that part redeems the system. That's going to see one of the best teams be eliminated on Thursday. Well, and to the credit of both of these teams and this series as a whole,

just from the storytelling angle, like I'm so appreciative of the fact that we're able to just talk about this series from an odd-ice perspective, and there isn't this spectacle, whether it's someone licking someone else or people debating whether players are out there trying to dish out intentional brain damage to others or not. Like we've, for the most part, like, I don't know, what's been the most controversial subplot that, you know, there was an insinuation in Winnipeg that Nashville was, you know, artificially pumping in crowd noise or something, like, something silly like that. But it hasn't actually been anything like, you know, overly controversial that's overshadowed the on ice product.

And that's what's made this series so great. And I'm really thankful for that. Yeah, likewise. I think from a hockey purist's point of view, everything is going right. You know, we're getting the script that we wanted. We have healthy teams. They are playing phenomenally well. You compare that to, I'm going to say, Vegas, San Jose.

You watch that one, and just the speed difference, right? Like, the hockey in this is so high quality. Like, the most, all of the focus is on what's happening when the puck is in play, just about, other than, I don't know, maybe line is chipped towards Darvison last night. And it comes with, like, on the best of the best. of two teams who are genuinely built well. Nashville has so many value contracts. Winnipeg has so many value contracts.

Winnipeg had the wherewithal, despite being known as a conservative team to actually go out and add a guy like Paul Stasley because maybe management realizes that there's kind of a two-year window here and Palina's contract kicks in, and those value contracts are just kind of a fond memory. Right. I think for me it's always more satisfying

when teams that are genuinely constructed well have success and not just mentally that satisfying for me but also it means that there's a lot of good players and like any minute that any player is on the 8th probably somebody who can can make something happen and you know maybe there's a

if Brian Little comes out and Matt Hendricks comes back in I'll step off that declaration but like there are impact players all the way up and down both lineups. And it's just, it's the story we all wanted, I think. Yeah, and it's, there is something satisfying, right? To the idea of, like, the process is being rewarded in terms of team building.

And also the fact that these two teams are, um, have been built and constructed in, in different ways, too. So it kind of shows that there isn't necessarily just the one blueprint you can follow. Like, you know, you mentioned the Stasney thing. But for the most part, these jets have really kind of, it's taken time and they've been drafting and developing a lot of these guys. internally and Nashville certainly has some of those guys as well but there's also you know David Poil's just made a killing in this even the in the big game trades where it's for

Suban or Forsberg or Johansson or going out and signing Nick Benino this summer trading for Kyle Turris like so the fact that both these teams have been constructed so immaculately but also through different avenues is also cool from a storyline perspective and as a fan of the game because if you're if you're a fan of another team out there and you're watching this and you're sort of you know dating dreaming about how your team could one day be in a series like this. Like there's optimism that there's many different ways to get there and not just the one. Yeah, absolutely.

Who are you going to copy? Well, I guess it just comes down to getting good players somehow. And, you know, I think that, you know, if you're a cynic right now and you think that,

um, the Vegas success is kind of damning of general managers around the league for how they chipped over themselves to give up good players, well, you can look at these two teams and say that, you know, what they were in fact well built. there are teams that are, whether it's through exploiting those trades or whether it's through

taking their time, are doing things in maybe a long-term sustainable way. So it's, I've been tempted to criticize the decisions that led to Vegas' supremacy and then the abundance of talent that it has. But I think Nashville and Winnipeg are nice counter-arguments that, you know what, there are some teams that are being built really, really well. And I guess you can, can see that in how well they did in the regular season and how high the quality of hockey is right now, too. Absolutely. No, I completely agree with that. All right, Marat, is there anything else we want to talk about and team up this game seven and kind of recapping what's going on so far? Or do you think we've covered most of it? I really think that we have. I think it would just be repetition at this point.

But I feel like declaring the neutral zone is the most important part of the ice is almost a bit boring. but disproportionately important between these two teams. Because I have so much faith in both of their offenses to create if they get enough time and space in the offensive zone. Goalcending, it's a massive thing. Design a trophy finalist, toe to toe, both of them with histories of bouncing back after rough games and hell of about kind of needing two. I just can't wait to see this play out, to be honest.

Can't believe we have to wait an extra day for it. I think Justin Timberlake's to blame for that, so I don't know what to make of all of this. Yeah, we have two nights of the lot of hockey here. But you know what? At least it'll give this podcast a little longer show life because I don't think too many people are going to be listening after the game.

So hopefully people listen and check this out. And, you know, yeah, the neutral zone discussion isn't necessarily the sexiest topic. But at the same time, I know that, you know, people listening to this podcast typically are, you know, big fans of the game and sort of think about it a lot. And they want to know what to look for when they're watching. watching these games. And that is one of those areas where regardless of what's going on in the scoreboard early on, like the way it's being played out and which team is dictating that area of the

game will tell you a lot about how the result is going to wind up turning out. So it is one of those very informative things that will tell us a lot beyond just who's leading early on or what's going on in the first couple minutes. Yeah, you know what really well said. And I think now reflecting that it's because I take it for kind of the firepower is there in the offensive zones, but anything can happen through the middle of the ice between these two teams. So, yeah, well, well, well said. All right, Marant. Plug some stuff.

What are you working on? I know you've been writing like a madman these days covering the series. Do you have anything else coming out before the game seven goes on? Or what else do you have on your horizon? Yeah, on the horizon. I think that at the athletic, my next piece should be about what I consider the two biggest breakout players for Winnipeg meets playoffs and that's Morrissey and Truba.

I had the opportunity to talk to both of them now and especially Morrissey at length and he was so articulate and so open in terms of sort of discussing kind of how they manage their switches, some of the communication between the two of them and even a little bit of a long story

like the long road in that since the moment Morrissey was drafted there was at least some thought that these two guys could become what they are today. So that should be a good piece and just on the strength of how candid and articulate that they were. And so that will be coming out. I'm going to guess tomorrow, which would be Wednesday,

but at the very least by Thursday. And like you say, I'm writing a mile at a minute. And with the jets going as deep as they are, I think that's just going to continue. And it's up to me to try to keep up to it. But no, I've been very thrilled with how open and articulate it that, you know, hockey players can be when you ask them, kind of pointed hockey question. Well, and you're learning from the best getting to sit at these games next to my guy,

Pierre LeBron, so you're learning, you're learning the tricks to the trade from one of the best out there. Yeah, and lucky to be so, yeah, absolutely. All right, and where can people find you on Twitter? Twitter, it is W-P-G-M-R-A-T, and Marat is M-U-R-A-T. I guess I'm kind of claiming to be the only Marat in Winnipeg with that app, WPG Marat. Don't fact-checked that. Listen, man, it was a blast to finally chat with you,

and I've really enjoyed your work at the Athletic this year, and you've become sort of a one-stop shop for all the kind of insightful and deeper Jets analysis. So I'm really glad we finally got to do this, and I want everyone out there to enjoy the game seven. It should be a lot of fun, and hopefully we'll have a chance to chat sometime down the road. Likewise. I'm a big fan of yours, too. Thanks a lot, Dimitri.

Cheers, man. The Hockey PDOCast with Dmitri Filippovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey pdocast.