The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 249: A Friendly Wager

Episode Date: August 10, 2018

Craig Custance joins the show to discuss the philosophy behind rebuilding, make super duper preliminary 2018-19 predictions, and answer your mailbag questions. Topics include: 6:10 The pros and cons of fully tanking in hockey 20:30 The Jeff Skinner trade 34:30 Artemi Panarin landing spots 39:50 The Kings, and pushing chips in with your current core 49:20 Can their big summer push the Blues over the hump? 57:30 Which of the worst teams can turn it around most quickly? 1:06:45 The annual podcast bet Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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So when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart. Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich. And joining me is one of unquestionably the 25 other best hockey podcasters in the world.

It's my buddy Craig Custin's. Craig, what's going on, man? Wow, thank you for that, Dimitri. I really appreciate that intro. 25, 8, I don't know if I can name 25 hockey podcasts. Yeah, I can't either. But there's a lot of good ones these days. So there's, you know, I didn't want to, uh, I didn't want to get in trouble and name names,

but you're right up there. I love the full 60. I was listening to Dallas and Luke Ken podcast yesterday, although I had her on a couple weeks ago on myself, and there was a lot of, there was a lot of crossover in the topics, yeah. But that's good because that makes me feel like I did a good job because the fact that you felt that necessary to ask a lot of those questions means I was on the right track.

She's really good, eh? She's the best. I enjoyed talking to her. Basically, we and Dallas had a, an athletic get together that turned into a giant bar full of a million writers and ended up sitting next to her and I didn't know her background. She has like a leadership theory major from University of Richmond and my book had a lot of kind of leadership examination of all the coaches and we started talking about applying it to coaches and it was just really I wish I would

hit the record button at the bar because I could have banged out a podcast but it was it was great. I'm like okay I need to circle back at some point and do this and so you know the first half we talk a lot of you know Panarin and a little bit of what's going on in Columbus and then I what I enjoyed the most was was getting into that background and because I love that stuff yeah and you know I've talked about as a bunch on the show in the past but I have the utmost respect for people who cover just one team and do it in a you know creative way where they're not just doing like the game recaps and and just all the generic cookie cutter stuff. Like when you're just covering the one team,

sometimes it can be so tough to find fresh new storylines and new topics to cover that you haven't already, especially if you've been doing it for a few years, whereas, you know, we have the benefit of covering 31 teams and there's always something else to talk about. Right. So the fact that she's able to constantly talk about the blue jackets

in a way that I haven't necessarily thought of before or ask questions that I think are very insightful and important is a huge testament to the work she does. And there's other beat writers out there to do a similar. their job and I'm always just amazed by that. You cover the thrashers for a bit, right? Like, it was that, I mean, I guess that was a, that was an interesting team to, uh, to cover for, for you.

But like, I remember when I was writing about the Canucks full time, like, it was just sometimes it could really be a slog, especially like halfway through the season when you've already seen 30 games and you've basically talked about everything there is to talk about with the players involved. I, so it's funny because last year when we were launching Detroit, I really was zoned in on the Red Wings and, and, and it was. by about October I'm like okay I've written everything there is the right I think we're all set here you know like we've broken down everything left right and center and I'm like okay and it did it was just a reminder of how hard it is to write compelling things on the beat and it you know did take me back to those thrashers days now the thrashers they were I felt like there was always something going on with them which was fun because you either had you know when I started they made the playoffs and then the wheels fell off and so you had a coach firing you had Mary and Hose is being traded.

Then after I left, but I was still in Atlanta, they had the Kovalchuk stuff, you know, him being traded. There was always, and you just learn to beat a storyline into the ground, right? If there's any interest at all, it's, it becomes Marion Hose watch. And you have to almost think in those terms. Well, and also, I imagine covering that team there wasn't that much competition for you, correct me wrong, but I feel like, you know, if you're, if you're like in Toronto or something, there's so much media there that it's tough,

sometimes the team can restrict access or really kind of pick and choose what they provide you with. Whereas I found that in some of these smaller markets, like one real benefit you do as if you're like entrenched there as the person covering the team, you really sometimes get cool nuggets of information and access and you're kind of the go-to as a source. So it opens up a bunch of different avenues for you as well. Yeah, I like, I mean, there's pluses and minuses when you're the only person. I mean, if things go south and you're negative, everyone's just mad at you, right? You're the only one they're reading and there's no like, and there's nobody to piggyback off ideas. So you're in a scrum and it's just you and like a couple local cameras just waiting for you to ask questions.

Like I found some of that stuff to be off putting. But 90% of it, it was great for me in my career because you had locker rooms to yourself. And it wasn't Toronto where it was a scrum. It was you're just sitting down to, you know, next to Scott. Melanby and talking as long as you possibly need them or Ilya Kovalchuk or whoever, Slava Kozlov. And it was in terms of building relationships that I still tap into now almost 10 years later, it was great. Five years on the Atlanta Thrashers.

Wow, we're off to a roaring start today. This is good stuff. I did a whole podcast on the Thrash and people still, they want to follow up. In fact, they wanted a podcast dedicated to the Thrashers, just the demise. It would be an interesting, like, exercise. Like, if you could do a one, you know, 12-episode podcast, maybe like a one-off on a franchise like that, it's actually a good idea. I thought you were saying, like, covering them full-time on a 2018-19 basis, just checking in like, yep, still no game from the Thrashers tonight. We'll check back in next week.

I'm going to do a thrash. One season of the thrash podcast. So I'm really excited to talk to you about just the general concept of rebuilding. You and I have talked about in the show plenty when I've had you in the past, and I feel like out of all the people out there, if anyone is as sort of intrigued by the concept or... Sess, you can say it. It's okay.

Obsessed with the concept of rebuilding and sort of different ways to do it and what the best option is and sort of how you go about that. and writing about it and Tom Bonn and podcast, it's yourself. And that's what it makes for good conversations between the two of us here. And I started reading now that it's the offseason. I have a bit more time. And I've already read behind the bench. I'm reading Astro Ball.

And I'm not sure if you heard about it. But it's, no, I was sold to read it by a person in management in NHL. They were asking the other day, like, have you read it? And I'm like, no, but you should. So I think it came out pretty recently. It's about Houston Astros and a Sports Illustrated writer. Ben Reader, I believe, or Ben Ryder, wrote about it. And I'm only about 20 pages in or so, but it seems like it's going to be a pretty interesting read.

And I just love the idea of, you know, that Houston Astros is a bit of background similar to maybe it's more publicized what the Philadelphia 76ers did in NBA, for example, but completely bottoming out and just having a shell of a team for a handful of years and really just, you know, at times being a bit of an embarrassment of Black Mark on the league, but really. you know, raising a lot of questions on what's this organization doing. Is this the right way to do it? Should they even be allowed to do so? And then they just accrued all these high picks and eventually it all came together. And now we see what they are and how successful they are. And obviously they won last year's World Series. And it's certainly much easier to do so in a team like, in sport like baseball,

than it is for hockey. And we've already documented and highlighted many of the reasons why it might not be the most feasible strategy. but I still am just so, you know, captivated by that concept. And we haven't really seen it happen that much in hockey. You know, we obviously saw a bit with the Sabres and Tim Murray for the most part, but I had some quibbles with how that was done. And I feel like, you know, after a while, maybe it just became so untenable that they couldn't really see it through properly.

But it's, I don't know, just the idea of a team going that extreme in the pursuit of something. and having that coherent of a plan is something that's always going to stick with me. And I had Shana Goldman on a few days ago, and we were talking about the Rangers, and it seems like they're obviously not going to go to that far and extreme, but it seems like at least for now, they sort of seem pretty steadfast in having a plan and sticking with it and being transparent with it, which is unique for most NHL teams. So I guess they're an example of a team that's kind of trending in that direction lately. But I don't know, just what do you, let's just get into that whole topic.

I don't even know what the specific question is, but I want to talk about rebuilding. Well, so because I am obsessed with it, I was talking to somebody yesterday because I did this series. I did it in the past of ESPN where I talked to the GM of the cup winning team, and we get some highlights of what makes their team good. And I compare every other team in the league to it to see how close they are to, you know, using the cup winner as the gold standard. And someone I was talking to yesterday was like, oh, you know, I was talking to you, I read the blueprint series, and the thing that jumped out to me was the Minnesota Wild. And I'm like, oh, really? Like, yeah, it just seems like there's just stuck and stuck in kind of that middle area,

which is not a great place to be. And I wouldn't even know what to do next if I was them. And it becomes this fascinating thing. Can that Astros model be replicated in hockey? And the more people I talk to about it, I think the one, underrated aspect to all of this has been the way that they've redone the lottery rules after the oilers won a million lotteries. And that's, I think that was, I don't know if it was an overcorrection by the GMs, but it certainly removes the, the motivation to bottom out. Because as we've seen, like there's been teams that have been bad for a while now and they keep losing.

You know, the team gets leaps frog them, leapfrogs them. and now Dallas has the second pick or whatever. And so you go through all of this pain without the payoff. And really, when you look at how the numbers, to get that franchise player, you have to be drafting in the top two or else it drops off. So if you're not even guaranteed a top top two pick and to go through all that pain and maybe not come out of it, I don't think, and maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the Astros model is maybe this is the best route to take because it can send you spinning.

The sabers are now just coming out of it. And so the sabers are probably going to win a cup in the next whatever it is, five or ten years because they have the hardest pieces to get in Eichl and Dahlene. But like, it was a lot of pain to get there and they got lucky. Yeah. Well, I mean, I guess you could argue they got a bit unlucky from the perspective of they never wound up getting that first overall pick and you wonder how much things would have changed with all due respect to jack ickel and how tremendous of a talent he is and i'm excited we can talk a bit more about the sabers but he's going to finally have some legitimate line mates to play with but yeah if they

get a connor macdavit i wonder how different that is and how differently people talk about that buffalo sabers bottoming out right and and and i understand but that's that's the point right like and i'm not and i don't remember the timing of it at all i think the gosh i i You'd have to remind me. I think there was two changes made or there was a transition made. I don't even think the lottery rules when they didn't get McDavid were as is, you know, pendulum swung the other way as they are now. So not only do they strip it down to the extreme under Tim Murray, they, you know, like you mentioned,

they didn't get the big award, which was McDavid. And Ikel, yeah, you're right, Eichol's a good player. But it just takes that big lot. And then you have these other teams that have just been at it for a long time spinning their wheels. And, you know, Carolina hasn't made the playoffs in a decade or whatever. Arizona, you know, poor John Chica, because they don't get any luck in the lottery is trying to have that success through a million incremental moves, you know. Like he makes a trade every other day and he's doing, you know, he's utilizing caps. And he's doing all these things in an attempt to get a little bit better than yesterday.

but when the reality is it takes that Connor McDavid or whoever, Austin Matthews. Yeah. Well, I mean, the Canucks have been the worst team in the league for the past three years, and they've picked like seven, fifth, and seventh or something like that. Yeah, that's a great example. Yeah. Well, the reason why I brought this up, actually, is because I had a follower on Twitter, Inferno underscore Rangers,

ask about whether it's necessary to, bottom out or tank in the NHL to turn into a Stanley Cup contender. And while here's where I stand with it, I think that bottoming out like that and getting a bunch of top picks and accruing talent that way through the draft is obviously, as we've seen, not a sure thing. I think like from a probability perspective, even if it's a slight advantage, I think it still gives you the best path towards achieving that. And I think, like, you know, obviously the lottery system has changed quite a bit, so it's apples and oranges.

But if you just look at, let's take a look back, for example, at the past decade of hockey and sort of the teams that have dominated it, it's been the penguins, the Blackhawks, I guess like the kings, the Bruins, and then the capitals. Or like, I'd say, like, the five teams. And then I guess you could, you know, you could throw in the lightning and maybe the sharks in there as well. All built under the old system, by the way. All built on the old system, but all built under. the framework of they sucked for at least like three, four years. Yeah. I guess the Kings, I don't know if they did, I don't know if the Kings ever did the, I mean,

they were bad for a few years. Well, I mean, they missed the playoffs for, I was looking at this. They missed the playoffs for six straight years. I don't know if they were necessarily intentionally bottoming out, but like, you know, they got Dowdy obviously super high and then Kopitar and Dustin Brown were lottery picks. And then even Braden Shend was like the fifth overall pick that they used to get Mike Richards. and then, you know, a bunch of circumstances fall into their lap, and they are able to magically get Jeff Carter for pennies on a dollar.

And, you know, you obviously need some breaks like that. I guess, like, the Bruins are another example of a team that never really completely bottomed out there. But I don't think that, you know, they had two things go really, really well for them. One was they just hit a bunch of home runs in the second and third round and then H.L. Draft, getting, like, Bergeron, Kreti, and Marchand in a matter of a couple years. And then obviously the two cup runs they made to the final, Tim Thomas and two Kuraski each had a 9-40s, 8 percentage in those seasons. And I guess having a remarkable goalie stand on his head,

kind of like what Flurry did last year for the nights, I guess is always a strategy for making a cup run, but I don't know if it's necessarily something that you can replicate or bank on. So that's basically when you look back at success over the past however many years, it generally comes back to each of those teams having, like at least two cornerstone pieces that they got really high in the draft and then kind of getting lucky or or creating some of that luck by being in the right place at the right time and being able to turn some of their assets into great players to combine with those guys they

drafted. Yeah. So right. But the bottom line is you have to have, you have to get the elite centerman and elite defensemen. And it doesn't matter. I mean, then it becomes about probabilities and how you're going to get it. So do you want to formulate a game plan where you're hoping to get lucky in the second round and getting Patrice Bergeron at number 45?

I mean, you can try, but what are the percentages of that? Like 1%, you know? And none of these percentages are great, right? So, you know, the percentage, what's the percentage now of finishing last and getting the first pick? It's like 30% or something. And you've got to hope that you happen to get it in a year where now Yakupov isn't the guy sitting there at one. So, you know, there's also that. Right.

And then the other thing that Bruins did that, I mean, Zaday-O-Chara probably is the best free agent signing in the cap era, I would say. I mean, there's a lot of, you know, there's been a lot of other high-profile moves, but to get a number one defenseman that you can really build a cup champion around in free agency. And those are, that's hard. So now, you know, Toronto has a version of that in Tavares. He would be the candidate for the next best. It's just, so maybe those happen once every seven or eight years. And maybe a second round franchise centerman happens once every seven or eight years. So all of these probabilities are, aren't great.

Yeah, they're not great. I guess you're sort of picking the lesser of two evils. I'm really fascinated by that Rangers team. And I don't want to talk about them too much because I did just a little full podcast to them. But like kind of similar to what we saw. from the Leafs the past handful of years and obviously getting Austin Matthews first overall really expedites that process and helps a lot. But like this idea of being in a market where you do have, you know, a lot of financial

wig room or a lot of opportunity to use money both actually going up to the cap fully, but also in kind of more tangential, subtle ways as well to build out your team, build out your organization. and then actually using that money in a smart, coherent way and sort of getting a bunch of high picks and kind of having that all merged together. Like we've seen how special a formula that can be with the Leafs when run under wise managerial, by a wise managerial group.

And assuming that Jeff Gordon and the Rangers are going to go down that path, like the potential for them to really build something great here is there. And so like of all the rebuilding teams, It's funny because they've been doing it for such a short period of time, but I feel like they really do have such a massive leg up on the competition there. Yeah. So since we're basically running parallel podcasts, I had Larry Brooks on last episode on the full 60. And we were talking about it.

And he made an interesting point because the one thing I asked him, I said, well, I don't have a great sense of how committed they are to it if the opportunity for them to spend some of that Rangers money presents itself. So let's say Artemi Panarin, for example, wants to go to New York this summer. You know, are the Rangers willing to put the rebuild on hold and sign him? And he made a good point. Larry said, you know, this notion that you don't add the elite player or you pass on an elite player because your team isn't ready yet in the rebuild cycle, he thought it was ridiculous. He's like, what are you trying to get while you're rebuilding? It's great players. And that's the whole point of bottoming out and selling and all that stuff.

So if you have a chance to use some of your capital on getting one of those guys not necessarily through the draft, then you absolutely have to do it. But then all of a sudden, you know, you add Panarin to the Rangers. They're not going to be bad. Right. You know, so it's this. But I agree with them. You're trying to get two or three great pieces. And I think Panarin is one of those pieces.

So, you know, it's, it's, you're checking a box. It doesn't matter how you get it. Lucky in the second round through free agency or bottoming out and hitting in the lottery. Yeah. Okay, well, you know, spinning off the idea of just if you have an opportunity to get good players, you should jump at it and then figure, let everything else sort itself out after. And it's a good jumping off spot for us to talk about the Jeff Skinner trade a bit because I haven't really had a chance to talk about in this podcast.

and obviously, you know, he's not in the caliber of players like our Tammy Pernarin, for example. But, you know, for the Buffalo Sabres, from their perspective, you know, we saw them kind of use a bit of a financial motivation for the penguins to just poach Connor Shiri from them for a draft pick, I guess. And then, you know, they gave a combination of picks, none of which were necessarily premium assets to get Jeff Skidner. And then all of a sudden, I don't know how necessarily what it's going to be. going to get them and I'd feel much more confident saying the Buffalo Sabres could be frisky if they hadn't just traded Ryan O'Reilly for a bunch of lesser assets but at least now they have talent to surround guys like Jack Eichael and Casey Middlestat with and I'm very excited to or as excited as you can to be watching Buffalo Sabers hockey. I'm very intrigued to see how that's

going to work out and sort of how much that can raise the individual ceilings of those players, just having, you know, requisite talent to run along with them and play along with them and convert on some of those opportunities that a guy like Jack Egoe can create with his speed and playmaking and puck-carrying ability. Yeah, I think Jason Botterill's done a great job. I think he's quietly had, now, look, obviously gets lucky in the draft and that can make anybody look good. but it was interesting because it was almost like I was reading the one of the one of the Sabres writers wrote something and it was basically kind of alluded to him having a feeling out process in year one and right off the hop you know there was the jack Ikel contract which I didn't like I thought it was premature and high and I thought it was an attempt to like establish Jack Eichel as your Connor McDavid and I just thought it was a bit early in you know a

No one's ever said this. I just wonder if it was pushed from ownership to get that done or what. But I think since then the moves they've made it smart. Now, I sense in your assessment of O'Reilly you didn't like that deal necessarily. I didn't. I just didn't. I think sometimes, and my main sticking point for it was they got back a bunch of pieces. And I think at the time the trade was announced, people saw the volume of assets coming back.

And they were like, oh, you know, the Sabres did really well. here look at all of this all of the stuff they got all of the stuff yeah and then when you look at it and you actually kind of parsed it and you look at it at one by one you're like all right i don't necessarily love anything that's coming back here i don't think there's anything that you can necessarily count as anything remotely resembling a sure thing so they got a bunch of stuff but i don't know where that gets them and i just felt like similar honestly obviously very different cases in terms of their contract contractual status and all that but like similar to what It just happened with Jeff Skinner and Carolina, and they were on the receiving end of this,

was it just felt like the team decided, like, listen, this player is not coming back and playing with us next season, so we're going to trade him. And then when they looked around and saw that the market wasn't there for him, it was like, well, we just have to take the best offer available. And people were sympathetic to them saying, like, oh, there's only so much they could have done. You know, the market is what the market is. But on the other hand, on the other hand, it's like, well, it was kind of a bit self-inflicted because as soon as you make it obvious that you really want to get rid of this player,

of course people aren't going to offer you premium packages in return. And you sort of, you know, you box yourself into a corner a little bit and really just remove all your leverage for no reason just by being that overtly public with it. So that's where I was at with it where it's like, I think Ryan O'Reilly is a heck of a player and provides a ton of value. And you can make a bunch of arguments that, you know, based on how much he's being paid and where he's at in his career versus where the Sabres are at, in their timeline for success, there's an imbalance there and they should have traded them.

I just felt like the timing of it and how they handled it resulted in an underwhelming return. Okay. That's fair. It's an interesting concept, this idea of, you know, we're trading this guy no matter what. And it reminds me, on some level you have to give Joe Sacka credit in Colorado because that's what sprung to mind with Matt Dushain. Like it was so obvious that they had to move them and they were going them. and they were shopping them. And that never happened.

It was never like, all right, we're basically out of time here. Let's pull the trigger. It was, let's wait until we get the return we want. And I wonder if that's happening on some level with Max Petruetti, right? Like, that's, again, a guy that you expect to get traded, but, you know, they're being pretty patient there. The Skinner one, I thought I was a bit puzzled. I mean, savers are sitting on three first round picks. I thought maybe you could pry one of them away from them to get to have.

Yeah, yeah. Well, I understand, you know, there's a couple ways to defend the hurricanes there and end their thought process. You know, part of, I guess, the incentive for moving the guy now and not having him back with the team to start the season is like there's always a potential for injury. And then all of a sudden, that could really complicate things and maybe you can't trade him if he winds up getting hurt. And with Skinner, I know that, you know, obviously he's an impending UFA, but also he had a no move clause. And I know that some of it's been reported. Some of it has kind of just been talked about behind the scenes. but he had turned down multiple potential trades,

including one to the Kings at the draft, I believe. So it did tie their hands a little bit, which I guess is the most shocking part of all this was that he didn't want to go to L.A., but he was very excited to go to Buffalo. Yeah, that's pretty telling, isn't it? They're set up, man, the Sabres. When I kind of went over their roster for that Blueprint series,

I mean, they have the heavy lifting is done in Buffalo. Now it's just, it's about, it's about putting it all together and getting experience together and filling out the roster. I mean, they need some help on D. But man, I like that team right now. And, you know, those kind of smallish moves of picking up the Skinners and the Shiri's, like that, those are pretty smart little moves by Barrow. Well, if you're, if you're ranking like the three, the three toughest, or I guess like the three major components of a rebuild, the easiest one is tearing everything down. and just stripping everything. It's so easy.

Like, you know, people give all credit for, you know, oh, they got a first and whatever, like, yeah, all those picks are, it's selling is you and I could go sell all day long. Oh, for sure. Yeah, if any, if any owners out there want to hire a Custin's Philopovich ticket to run their team. We'll sell all the parts. Yeah. Then I think the toughest is getting that cornerstone and sort of winning the lottery

you're finding a different avenue to get that guy that you're going to build a dream around. But then I think like the thing people take for granted sometimes and we've seen this in Edmonton that's also very challenging is supporting that cornerstone with the right talent in particular timing everything correctly so that you're not. So like financially you're not really restricting yourself or you're not rushing it too soon so that like when your team's not really ready to win

you're not hamstringing yourself in future years when you're going to have to allocate money in different areas and we've seen that with oilers and there's a bunch of different ways you could quibble with the way they've handled that part of the rebuild which is hamstrung them and so that's that's kind of a fascinating thing here with with with dalin now coming in and ikele's already on his mega second contract but it's like you you kind of want to stay away from a lot of those Kyle Lopozo type deals where you're paying a bunch of guys who might not necessarily move the needle that much for you, a bunch of money, and then in future years, really tying your hands.

But, you know, what's done is done. And for the most part, I've liked a lot of what Bauderil's done in Buffalo. And at the very least, there's far more reasons to watch them now. And I know that, you know, we joke about Buffalo as being a place that you want to live and play. But there's no doubt that that fan base is amazing. And, you know, you see every postseason, like, oh, the rating. for NBC are always just through the roof for Buffalo,

even though their team's obviously outplaying. It's crazy. I love that. And there's always one random, like, Florida City in those. I love when they come up with it. It's like the top five out of market ratings in the States, and it's Buffalo's always one. And then it's like Fort Myers is four.

And you're like, what? Like that's Florida. Everyone knows about Fort Myers loving their hockey. Yeah, no, I mean, it's funny because Buffalo is going to go from a place where it's like, oh, what's going on there? and it's going to become a destination. And it always happens. And at some level, we saw it happen with Eminton

where they couldn't sign anyone to save their life or they had to overpay to all of a sudden people want to play with Connor McDavid. And getting that no trade is waived isn't an issue. And Winnipeg, same thing. Like the fact that Paul Stashney was so excited to go to Winnipeg at the trade deadline, I can't tell you how many conversations I've had

with people in Winnipeg and management there. They're like, you know, this guy wouldn't waive is no trade. This guy wouldn't through the years, right? Now it's almost like it opens up a whole other avenue for you to build your team. Once the ball gets rolling and you get some momentum, you have that additional avenue that maybe wasn't there in some of these markets. Okay, I had someone, actually a couple people sort of asked me for either sleeper teams that are going to make the playoffs or, you know, I had about Florida Panthers fan ask me if they can be the team that could potentially step in as a wildcar team. if a team like the New Jersey Devils regresses.

Let's do a bit of a super duper preliminary playoff predictions. Oh, wow. Yeah. Well, last summer, I believe it was around this time. You know, we famously did our Winnipeg Jets versus Carolina Hurricanes bet for which team's going to finally take that jump. I took the Jets, right? No, I took the Jets. Don't be done.

There's no way to prove this. Yeah. No. not documented online in any capacity. I think, so like the East, for example, you know, I feel pretty confident saying that that Atlantic is going to be one, two, three in some order again between Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Boston, and it's going to be

a heck of a slug fest there. I guess you know, Buffalo is going to be better for sure. Ottawa and Montreal, I think, are going to be a complete disaster. With Florida, Florida is that intriguing team where they obviously made that run in the later stages of the season. and they have a bunch of young talent there that has really blossomed. Then you just, you know, I guess the big question for them is how much Roberto Longo can hold up and contribute from a games played perspective at this point of his career and whether

they're going to be able to support those guys enough because I know that while a lot of that winning was happening towards the end of the year, it was because like Barkov and Trochec down the middle were basically playing like 45 or 50 minutes of the 60. It was just crazy. the workload they were shouldering. I'm not sure, even though they are younger players, how much of a winning formula that is for a full 82 game season and whether you can pull that off,

and you are going to need a bit more depth contributors to help out. So I wonder, I don't know, do you think that Florida has a case for being that next team to step up if one of last year's postseason teams falters in any way? Yeah, well, I mean, New Jersey had 97 points. Florida had 96. So, I mean, I don't think it's unreasonable to say, say that they could swap places

next year. In fact, I think every year there's those candidates for teams that have the surprise year, the previous year, that are maybe ahead of schedule and then they all tend to take that step back. And I mean, and I would say

the two candidates this year are New Jersey and Colorado. You know, teams that I think are on the right path that put it together maybe earlier, and for whatever reason things went well, I would be surprised if both of those teams like the playoffs again i i do i do like florida like if i if we had to pick right now between florida and new jersey to make the playoffs i would pick florida i just i think the the the good

young players are a little farther along and and like you said there's that that barcoff trocheck tandem down the middle like that's that on most nights that's an advantage for the panthers it is it is um i guess it's not even as much new jersey against florida for that spot i'm As much as I say, it's probably Carolina versus Florida. I think they would be their biggest competition. That Metro Division, man. Like, we expect Washington and Pittsburgh to be their usual 100-point selves. Again, I think that there's a lot to like about this Flyers team,

and a bunch of guys could very conceivably take another step up in their development, and they could be... I like the Flyers. Even better. I want to say, go on the record. I really like the Flyers. I do as well. I think they're that sort of...

I think them in Columbus are in that... next year there with with those two like i think all four of those teams are going to make the playoffs again so it does really leave that one last wild guard spot if we if we project the three atlantic division teams as well it's like it's going to be between new jersey florida and carolina and oh man carolina one of those teams isn't like one of the philadelphia columbus something's going to go sideways all every year like it's not like every year the same eight teams or whatever make it it's something's going to play out you know paneran's going to get traded for futures or Bobroski is going to get hurt or something's going to happen where one of those teams

like it's always like that okay well this is why i'm a broadcasting professional kevin mchesney asks what's a reasonable return for artemmy panarin he says he wants the bluejack to sign him but if not he wants assets wow kevin kevin seems to know what he wants um who is the frontrunner and um what yeah if you're if you're if you're a fantasy booking this if you're kind of looking around um what do you think is a logical fit for a team, even if they haven't been, you know, rumored or speculated to be in on it, if you just look at sort of their, where they're at right now and who could really benefit for them. My prediction on this, I think the Islanders. I think they're at a point, you know,

the DeVaricing obviously was a disaster. So, but they're not at a point where they want to rebuild. So in Panarin, you have a chance to get that premier player. It's, you know, now you're moving to, and we don't know how much of this is true, you know, that he wants to be in a big city or whatever it is. But, I mean, this, you know, you're sending him to New York. So there's a chance. They obviously have the finances to sign them. They can just give them to various money.

They have a ton of young assets kind of built up, had a great draft. so you can be and I think Columbus if you're Columbus you're looking for some mix of some of that young talent and somebody who can plug into your top six on the wing and that you know there's some candidates on the island so if you know if you're looking so I'm looking for a top six winger so because you're Columbus and you're still trying to win right now I'm looking for also a high end either I don't know even want a first round pick if I'm Columbus because I want somebody who, you know, you're in this small window while Bobrowski's on the right side of 30, barely, and, you know, Wrenski is still on his entry level. I, you know, I'm looking for one of those, maybe those guys that got in the draft this year, you know, a little closer than a future first rounder and, and, you know, something else to fill it out.

And I think the Islanders can put together a really good package if they want to. Yeah, they definitely can. answer here has to be San Jose though right? Like, you know, they were obviously heavily rumored to, I mean, they obviously were in the Tibera sweepstakes and then they were rumored to be potentially in the Ryan O'Reilly hunt. And, you know, they made it clear that they were opening up a bunch of cap space and they were looking to be frisky and just based on the players they have right now, the sign long term, it's like this really is their window before some of these get.

really age out and they just have to accept that eventually they are going to be bad. The sharks haven't miraculously. I've been fighting this off for so long and they've been on the fringe for as long as I can remember, but it's, you know, with Burns and Vlasic and Pavelsky's going to get extended here soon and Kutcher in a couple years. Like a lot of those contracts are going to wind up looking bad and that's just kind of the price you pay sometimes for being as good and competitive for as long as they have. But that leaves them a window here.

and I do wonder obviously, depending on the price, like whether it's patcher ready or Panarin, they need another dynamic element to help separate them from some of their Western Conference peers. Like we saw sort of them versus Anaheim, that was an extreme imbalance, where they were just so much faster and skilled than them. And then we saw in the Vegas series,

which was closer, but that Vegas had the advantage on there. So I think, San Jose is not that far away. They obviously have a ton of good players. I wonder how much a guy like Panarin could help them, I think, quite a bit. Yeah,

but like what sense? They already don't have a first. You know, they, they're not loaded in terms of prospects. Like, they do a good job of drafting based on where they are. I like their kind of organizational philosophy,

and they develop pretty well, but they haven't, you know, I wouldn't say they have a, I just, I'm wondering what a package going back looks like. Yeah.

Well, what I've learned in my short time covering the league is a bunch of these teams that are really, really good and have smart GMs. Whenever you're like, I just don't understand how they could possibly make this happen. All of a sudden, they find some way to do it. It's like, it's like with Stan Bowman and the Blackhawks for so long, it's like, I just, I don't understand financially how they're going to fit under the cab and make this work, and then all of a sudden they just do something. Right.

No, you're right. Like, that Wilson's a smart guy. Yeah. And, like, I mean, if you're getting Panarin, maybe you're, you're, hurdle or Timo Myers, you know, you're willing to move a player who's good as to build it around. I just, in terms of, if I'm the blue jackets, in terms of organizations where I think I can get a bigger return, I think it's a challenge in San Jose. I agree. Like, they set themselves up for a big off season and we're still waiting for it to happen in San Jose.

Yeah, I guess that's the part I keep circling back to you. Let's see here. Okay, at Puck follower, so we're talking about the California teams, asks, what do you think is the king's ceiling and the best case scenario with what they've done in this offseason? The kings are an interesting one. Yeah. Where are you at on the Kings?

I'm down on the Kings. Okay. They are just, they're so slow. They're so slow. In today's NHL, I just think it's, I mean, just watching that first round series against against Vegas. I know you don't want to overreact to a four-game sample like that, but it's really hard to shake just.

And I know obviously Doughty was suspended for that one game, and Muzin was injured for a while, and there's reasons to kind of help justify it, but they were just like, the wheels were spinning in mud. They just couldn't get out of their zone. They couldn't do anything. It was just constantly,

they were like chipping it off the glass, and Vegas was just carrying it back in, and it was just an endless cycle of that. and I just, you know, Koblchuk is going to be fun on that team and assuming. I can't wait to see Ilya Oyo Kovilchuk. Like, I'm really excited about that. I know.

Well, and similar to when Alex Rajulov came back a couple years ago to Montreal, like it's not getting to watch these guys with that much talent on a nightly basis was just incredibly disappointing as a fan of hockey and a fan of the NHL. And now the fact that we just get them back in our lives on a full-time basis is going to be awesome because they are highlight reels. I just, I hope, you know, Colchot's numbers were fine in the KHL, and I don't think there's necessarily beyond age, reason to believe that he's not going to be great, at least for this coming season, but I really hope he still has at least like 85% of that fastball left because

it would obviously be depressing to watch him come back and just be kind of moving around the ice and just kind of fitting in with the Kings and not necessarily sticking out. but, you know, that shot of his and just the unique skill set of just being that skill of that size and just some of the stuff he's capable of and was capable of in his prime. Like, I'm very excited to get to watch that on a full-time basis again. So I think that I just briefly slightly, I think the high end for the Kings for maybe one more year is pretty high. Like, they're going to be a disaster in a couple years. Yeah.

And these contracts are bad and they have all these old players. And but I think the potential for if we're just clearing this late, we're not looking ahead to beyond this season and just saying what can this group do for one season if they put it all together. I think the ceiling is pretty high. It's just hard to really say until you see what Ilya Kovalchuk looks like at the NHL level. But if, you know, people make the Radjolov comparison. He was a better player than Radjoloff in the NHL. So an older one now too, though.

And he's an older, so maybe, you know, if they're getting Radjoloff, that's a significant addition. And if he's better than Radjoloff, if, if, if, if Olyakovlch can put together one last great season with Dowdy and Kopitar and somehow, you know, this resurgent, Dustin Brown. And, you know, yeah, they're slow, but I think there's enough there you could, you could put together. other one year. I just, I mean, at the cost of sacrificing your future in a pretty big way. Yeah. Well, they've already, where do you stand on this? Because when you're a team like, you know, the Blackhawks were for a bunch of years or even when they are where they are right now still, or the, you know, the sharks or the kings and you've been good for a long time and you have all these aging veterans making a ton of money and you're sort of already pot committed. Yeah.

Like, do you just fully embrace that and go, while we still have these guys, let's just try to squeeze out even one or two more runs? And eventually, we're going to have to pay for this. And there's going to be a couple of years probably where we're just going to have to be patient and wait out some of these contracts expiring or us being bad and starting that next wave. Or do you go kind of half measure of foot in each door and you sort of try to remain competitive with those guys while also keeping an eye on the future? and not really fully tying your hands like two, three years from now and sort of keeping the door open a little bit. This is kind of the flip side of the rebuild question. I'm fascinated by this debate too

because I certainly don't fault the Kings or the Blackhawks or whoever or the Red Wings back when they were in this position for trying to get one more run out of great players because they're so hard to get, as we've talked about, that when you get them, you should try to get every last drop out of that. I do think that we've seen two teams take a smart approach to it that had their own version of this in Boston and San Jose. Where Boston trades, you know, they just, they took basically two years in the middle of it and we're like, okay, we're just, you know, they didn't strip it all the way down, but they weren't going for it every year and they used those assets to restock. And now I think the Bruins could win another cup.

And San Jose did the same thing. They had those trade deadlines where they were training Douglas Murray and whatever it was. They had a couple years where they were sellers. And again, they weren't trading Logan Gautier or Joe Pavalski. But they just took their foot off the gas in the middle of it, you know, regrouped. And I think maybe that's a strategy where you sit there and go, okay, this guy, our star players are 27, 28. Let's let's let's let's collect young assets for two years and then maybe take one, crack at it when they're 30, 31.

There's not an easy way, though. I don't begrudge the Kings for doing what they're doing. Well, here's what I would do, and this is acknowledging that offer sheets don't happen in NHL. And so it's easy for me to be like, you know, I think teams obviously should offer sheet more. I understand the hesitation for it and why they don't. I think it's a bit of flawed logic, but I do understand it. Um, but I'm surprised that contending teams like that don't go the route of going all in,

but being a bit more creative with, um, how they are pushing those final few chips in. And by that, I mean, like, if you do have those cornerstone pieces that are making a ton of money and a ton and a huge portion of your cap, like, okay, that, that's understandable. But where I think teams sometimes get into trouble is they trick them. themselves into believing that they are going to make that one final push and they're going to see this thing through with those players. And so they support them with expensive veterans who sort of fit in with them from an age perspective and a timeline perspective but aren't necessarily good bets in the years to come. I think I'd much rather use that remaining cap space. And if you do

have those picks and you're going to be giving them up in an offer sheet, assuming that you are going to be a good team, that's not necessarily. necessarily that even that dramatic of a, you know, package of assets that give up. So what I'm saying is like if you're a team like the sharks, for example, and let's say you had your picks, obviously they've traded away their first, but if you have your picks and you have a bunch of guys that are already getting paid, I'd much rather sign one of these intriguing younger guys to an offer sheet and sort of try to push my chips in. Like that as opposed to just signing whatever random veteran to a five-year annual deal and going like,

oh, this is us pushing our chips in, if you know what I mean. Yeah. No, that's, I mean, if offer sheets existed, I think that'd be a good plan. Yeah. Well, one day. So San Jose, like Doug Wilson will use the offer sheet. I mean, he's done it. You know, I've talked about this.

I think he would have off-ersheeded Martin Jones to get him. But they don't have their first. first. Like that's one team where you can see if they strike out elsewhere going that route, but they can't. So that's, yeah, I think the lessons to be learned from the Kings was, you know, I think the moves that ended up hurting them was, was that window where they traded for Secarra first, and then they traded for Luchich, that huge package. And it was for short-term gains. And I think, you know, I think is really good at this is in finding this balance is Doug Armstrong

and again he doesn't want a cup so if you're a detractor that's that's always the argument back but like when when he is using these assets he tends to do it on players that are going to be around a while and that are younger so he did send a big package but he got Ryan O'Reilly and it wasn't for a rental

it was it was you know it was for a player that's going to be around Jay Bowmeister was the same thing like he tends to to use those assets on guys that are going to stick around. And I think that's the move. Rather than trying to make these pushes at the trade deadline, it seems like the value of a first round pick goes way up as soon as the trade deadline's over.

And if I'm an old aging team, I'm resisting the temptation to do anything at the deadline and I'm saving it for the summer. Yeah. No, I like that quite a bit. Well, Andrew Friedman here asked about the St. Louis Blues and whether they've done enough this offseason to make it out of the juggernaut central division. and legitimately content for a cup. And I mean, I think they've definitely done enough this offseason.

I don't know if that division is going to be such a slugfest. And it's ridiculous. It's just like, I think they're still very clearly behind Winnipeg and Nashville in terms of if you're doing the power rankings by that central division. But I think, I mean, it's tough to quibble. I don't know, man. Not by that. I wouldn't say clearly.

They're behind them. Yeah. Well, I mean, okay. So are you, if you were doing predictions right now, would you have them finishing ahead of you to those two teams? No, but I mean, really, I've not seen. Okay, fine, fine. I like, Nashville, St. Louis.

But like, by a hair. Yeah. I like St. Louis did. And, you know, it wasn't like the traditional, they won the off season by signing the big free agent or whatever. It, like, there was some creativity. There was, you think, like, what, what's hurt St. Louis in the past? past and some of these teams in the West is they had a hard time getting the centers. And, and, you know, he was able to, over the course of the last couple years, add Braden Chen and

Ryan O'Reilly down the middle. You know, you still have, you know, Alex Steen who can play at center if you need. I mean, they've done a really good job there in collecting. And again, they got, you know, Colton Perrako, you also have to hit on these late picks. Like, it has to be this formula that does a lot of different things to get you. where you need to be in. Yeah, the blues. It's just, it's crazy because one of those teams is going to get bounced early

again in the playoffs. Yeah, they will in the first round. Yeah. Yeah, I think, you know, if you look at the landscape, I think no team added more talent this offseason than the Bruins did, than the Blues did, sorry. You know, obviously, I don't love Tyler Bozac as a player or the contract that he signed, but there's no doubt that.

It's your number three center. I'm okay. I'll help them next year. obviously David Perron is nice. They got Patrick Maroon on a hometown discount with kind of a wink wink for a future deal, I think. And the big thing that really could swing things here that isn't being discussed enough is,

you know, they got nothing out of robbery fabric last year. I guess at this point with his knee injuries, it's maybe you can't necessarily just, you know, pencil them in there and just go, okay, we're going to get all of that potential of his. But if he can contribute anything and then guys like Robert Thomas and maybe even a Jordan Kairu's, stepping up and you know there's the makings here of a team that could be really dynamic and really

good if everything comes together so i guess the big the big x-actor as always with each team is goaltending and whether jake allen can hold up and yeah that's the issue and uh and whether him and chad johnson can can hold a fort long enough but i really like them and that is just going to be uh they've definitely i think leapfrogged uh you know the minnesota's and the dallas of that division and i think that oh yeah if they're not i'm not sure if they're in that winnipeg natural tier but if not then they're definitely like just below in that kind of tier of their own above those other teams so they've done an awesome job and uh yeah kudos to dug armstrong for finding the right balance between um going for it and not necessarily completely sacrifice in the future

uh he could do it i want to add he can do it because he was decisive in the last two trade deadlines where it was like you know what we're not just going to try to get in the playoffs like that like people are going to overlook what he did with kevin shat and kirk and paul stashney and we're going to forget about it but he got you know he got when you add up all the assets he got because of his willingness to say um this this this current blues team isn't a cup winner so we're going to sell despite the fact that they you know were on the playoff bubble i think that's that's significant and the other thing he did that that you can't overlook was that too many gms mess up was when that team went to the western conference finals with bacchus and

Elliot and Brower, he let them all walk. And it was like, you guys were great. Thank you. But, you know, you have to make some tough decisions there. And I think most guys would have said, hey, this group earned a return. You know, let's sign these guys and run it back next year. And the future be damned. And he didn't do that.

And now, you know, look at every one of those, you know, Browers bought out, Bacchus. I'm sure Boston would love to get out of that contract. Elliot's Elliott. And so, like, I think part of being a good. GM is is being decisive in knowing, you know, when to fold him. Yeah. And he's, he's exhibited that he's pretty darn good at that. But again, he doesn't want a cup.

So, like, you know, I think, well, I think there's people that would say, you know what, maybe the better move would have been to build off that Western Conference team and bring all those guys back and give them a chance and then worry about, but, I mean, I obviously disagree. Well, obviously, and part of this is, you know, none of this stuff works in a vacuum and it's all about timing. and unfortunately some of their best teams ran into some of those best Blackhawks teams or some of those best Kings teams and it's just that's the blues that's the blues

franchise and forever yeah now they're like all right we're back and the Winnipeg Jets are like yeah but now we're here it's like oh my god this just never ends um Peter Scott asks do you see advanced stats affecting award voting in the future I think they already have yeah yeah I mean Craig here is uh is a long time voter and I know that yourself and many others in the industry definitely you know to varying degrees but are at least considering this stuff I don't I think gone are the days where I mean I'm sure there's some areas of the of the pHWA that aren't factoring it in but I think more than more than not right now or at least you know sprinkling it in a little bit into how they're making these

decisions I would I you know I would say for sure it is I can tell you as a voter I definitely factored in. And I have for a long time, but I think what, you know, where it used to be is if you were really doing your research, you tended to, you tended to talk to coaches and GMs and you really just kind of got the hockey side. And I would argue, you know, Carlson's, like I like Eric Carlson has been the beneficiary of voters looking at the, you know, I'm not sure he wins a Norris or two and finish his second without, you know, the, the advanced stats and the exposure there. Because when you talk, like, he's not eternally loved when you talk to coaches and GMs, right?

Like, they, you give them the option between Drew Dowdy and Eric Carlson, and they're going to take Dowdy every single time. And I think we've seen in analytics definitely impact the voting. Yes, but Dowdy did win it in 2015-16 over him when. I think most people would have argued that Carlson was the superior choice. I don't think the second wasn't like he. Oh, that's true. That's true.

Yeah. And I, you know what? I do think for, I mean, we can debate if this is reasonable or not. But I think sometimes it's like, oh, it's this guy's turn. You know what I mean? Like that's just, and it's subconsciously or whatever. It's like, how is Judeaoudi not one one? He's one of the best.

And I don't know. I think sometimes that factors in. Well, I mean, yeah, I'm looking at it. right now in each of the past six years there's been a different winner so it's like there's been six different winners over the past six years so it's like people really seem to

that seems to be the new thing I wonder if was it is Alex Petrangelo next is Oliver Ekman Larsson I think it's yeah I haven't thought about that yeah maybe it you should start right now start the campaign but like if you were just

going off analytics I guess you just give it to Carlson every year right Yeah, I mean, I can see the case for why he obviously didn't win it last year, but I'll be fascinated to see what happens this year. Wes Jacobs asks, oh, boy, this is a tough one. Who's going to make the playoffs and be a cup contender first? The Canucks, Redoing, sends, or Habs? Sorry, hold on. Let's go with who's going to be a cup contender, because I think who will make the playoffs is an entirely different question.

It is two different questions because any one of those teams can make the playoffs this year. I mean, the senators, the senators were one goal away from the cup final, like, what, a year and a half ago. Yeah. All right. I'm going to, I'm going to start eliminating. So, yes. So my answer is, like, any one of those teams can make the playoffs this year, and it wouldn't be shocking just because the way the NHL is. I'd be pretty shocked at the senators made them.

Right. I'd be like, wow, that is quite a turnaround. They would be the shocking one. So I'm going to, so if we're saying, like, legit cup contender, I'm going to remove Ottawa from the equation because I think they're. at the beginning of, you know, this kind of this dark period. They're about to enter. You know, they're going to move Carlson, you assume. Now, this all changes, Eric Carlson and Matt DeShane resigned and all that.

But, boy, that seems like a long shot. So I'm going to remove that. What's the other Detroit, Vancouver, and who else? Montreal. I guess do want to throw Buffalo in there as well? Although Buffalo wins. I think they're already. Okay, but Buffalo wasn't part of the question.

So I don't want to mess with his listeners ranking says. and it makes it easy. That's a cop-out. Like it's Montreal. Like, I, I could see Montreal bubbling up for a year and then being okay just because of Weber and Price. But again, like those guys, once those guys take that downward slide, they might be. So I would almost argue it's between Vancouver and Detroit, two teams kind of with their, with their lukewarm rebuilds going on. Yeah, which is, oh man, that's tough.

It's both those teams have at least a couple more years of just, at least like two more years of just waiting it out and getting out from some of these contracts before you can even really consider them turning that leaf. But with the Canucks, I haven't really talked about this on the show since Trevor Linden stepped down. Okay. But I think that's a very interesting situation to monitor because I would say that. that, you know, for them in particular on this list, and, you know, we preclude the Sands. I think before we can consider the Sands a legitimate cup contender, I think there's going to need to be an ownership change

or something fundamentally the changes about the way that organizations run. For the Canucks, I think there's some red flags, obviously, about whether Jim Benning is the right person for the job in terms of GMing the team, at least. I like what they've done in the draft, obviously, and they've gotten some high-end talent in Elias Pedersen and Brock Best, and Quinn Hughes most recently. But, you know, some of the stuff that came out there

and was reported about how the reason why Trevor Linder wanted to step down was because he felt uncomfortable attaching his name to what this team was doing and sort of there was a difference of opinion. And he thought they were much further away and whether it was ownership or whether it was Jim Benning or a combination of those two thinking that this team was much closer to being at the end of the rebuild and competing. And we saw that with the J. Beagle contract.

dragging the Antoine Roussel and sort of how they operated this summer. And I think that if the people still running the team are the ones that thought that that was the right course of action this summer, I think the Canucks are very far away from being a legitimate cup contender. Right, just by that philosophy. Just because I'm not having a tough time reconciling that you could think that way about the current team you have and build a team that's actually going to be a cup contender with the same brain. Right, right. So, I guess the Red Wings.

I guess the Red Wings. I guess here's what I'll say about the Red Wings, if we're making the case, is at least there's been an admission that, you know, like they're not signing J.B. Eagle to four years. And I know fans in Detroit, I can tell you weren't crazy about like Vanek getting a one-year deal or whatever because it blocks a young player. But it was done at least, this is the explanation you're getting to give an offensively talented player to play with. you know, guys like Zadena and Athanasia and Larkin and Manta. So they're, you know, so they're not just getting their clocks cleaned every night. And same thing with bringing Mike Greenback. Again, these are short-term contracts. Yeah, I probably wouldn't have brought Mike Green back. But their D is so bad that if he wasn't there, the puck would be on that side of the ice all night long.

And so the thought process is let's at least be competitive enough so that Dillon Larkin is just, getting, you know, losing five nothing every night. So I at least, so yeah, in terms of the mentality, I think their, the mentality is kind of in the right place. They got, I think they got lucky in this year, not lucky, but, you know, having a guy high-end talent like Zadena, which is exactly what they needed, slipped to them, is, was a, was a big win. And I think Joe Villando, I know, you know, I know he maybe isn't the prospect.

People thought he was, you know, a couple of years back or, but. whatever, but he's, you know, getting him in the first round as well was, was a bit of luck. My concern if Detroit is they may be decent enough not to be bad this year. And I think that would be, like, they need one more bad year, at least, if we're going to say they're a cup contender. So when I broke down kind of the elements of winning a cup, they're still missing the top high-end defensemen. They still need another high-end center. And going back to our initial conversation, the only way to get that or, you know,

is to get lucky or hit the lottery. And, you know, that's, you don't want them to be good this year if you're a Red Winkins fan. And they're not horrible. So I think that's, that's kind of an impediment. The one wild card to Detroit is they have a bunch of money coming off the books this year. And Gus Nyquist comes off the books at 475, Vannock, you know, so now we're at 7 million. Kronwall is another five of rounding up. So that's 12.

You know, Jimmy Howard is 5.2. He comes off the books. And internally, they believe at the very least that gives them ammunition to use free agency as an avenue to get one of those high-end players. Now, there's not many left since Dowdy and Ekman-Larsen signed. Right. Their thinking is we have as good a chance of getting a high-end player in free agency as you do of bottoming out and getting a good player in the lottery. and, you know, if they do add Eric Carlson, then that changes things. Yeah, I mean, next year's, I've talked a little of Chris Johnson on this podcast where, like, next summer's free agent class and obviously some of those names are off the board.

And by the time we get there, others will have extended and have made up their minds. So like not all these guys are going to hit the free agent market. But man, the crop of next year's UFAs is something else. I mean, even when you get into like the Artemi Panerans who are, you know, like there's so many guys that I'm just hopeful that there's going to be

at least a handful that are actually going to make it. So fingers crossed that next summer is going to be the one where there's a lot of moving parts. And I, like Detroit's counting on it on some level. And this is, this goes back a couple years.

Like I would, I would have these discussions that you and I have with people in the management and say, you know, you've got to tear it down to, to get in the, you know, Jack Hughes, Darlene running. And it's, it's, well, you know, that, that creates a cycle that may go on for forever. Whereas if you, if you let some of these contracts burn off, you don't spend that money, you'll, you'll line it and you look at the class of 19, where it obviously looked better a year and a half ago than it does now.

It's that, that to them was just as feasible of way of getting a high-end talent as stripping it down and, and crossing, your fingers that you get Jack Hughes in the same year. Yeah, yeah. Well, I think even if they don't want to be bad, I think based on their current Rolls reconstruction, I think they're going to be pretty bad anyways next year. So the beauty of it is you can be competitive. I contend that last year went about as well as it could for the Red Wings is that they lost every game by one goal.

So at least your young guys are going and thinking you have a shot. You can try to keep some of that culture where you're trying hard or whatever. and like that's almost the ideal so if you can be competitive enough where you're just you're just barely losing and then at the trade deadline you move Howard Nyquist Vanek you know you move this crew and again compile assets clear out all this cap space have one more big draft they've already got you know two seconds they've got like 10 picks or 11 picks and then 19 you know if you could have another draft we have two first rounders and then you hit in free agency like there's that Lisa I mean, we're talking about a lot of dominoes here, but there's at least a path to get there. That's a form a little bit. Okay, one final one before we go. So last year we did the Carolina versus Winnipeg bet.

I want to do this year's version on lesser stakes, and we've talked about these teams. Did we bet? Were there stakes? You know, just, you know, competitiveness, pride, journalistic integrity. Okay, here's what I would say. I would say, whatever this bet is, the other one has to dedicate, do like a five-minute ad for the other person's podcast. All right.

It's a deal. In a future podcast. Well, assuming we, no, okay, we have to take the opposite sides of this then. Let's do. Let's help that work. Let me treat. No, I know. But I don't know what your answer to this question is going to be yet.

And I don't know if I'm going to be comfortable disagreeing with you in case you go the same path I go. But let's go Buffalo versus Arizona this year. Okay. Who is going to be better? I'm going to say, can I take Buffalo? Yeah, you can. You can. I think it's close.

I don't agree about it. Well, they definitely have easier competition, I'd say. Yes. I think, like, I mean, Montreal, you know, all jokes aside, if they get a healthy carry price will be competitive. Like, I don't think they're going to be a disaster. there's going to be a lot of jokes obviously about what they could have been and some of the contracts they have. But in terms of what they're going to look like next year, I don't think it's the end of the world.

Ottawa was going to be very, very bad, especially if they make the Carlson trade. So I think Buffalo is going to be able to rack up some easier points in Atlantic Division. I agree. The argument for the coyotes other than the fact that they were better last year and obviously are kind of like the trendy sleeper team that finished this year really strong is if they can get, 60 games from Monte Ranta which I know that he's never done before so it might be a bit foolish to just

hope for that but if they can I like their goaltining situation a lot more and we've seen time and time again how big of a difference that can make I'm not sure that three year investment Buffalo Maine and Carter Carter Hutton is going to pay off for them so I that's why I would give the

slight advantage to Arizona but it's when you factor all that in, I think it's really close. And I think I'm cool with taking Arizona if you're going to take Buffalo. All right. I will do that. I agree. Like I think Arizona is, like if they were playing each other on a given night with the, with the gold.

Like, you might give Arizona the edge. I do like the goalie a lot better, despite the inability to stay on the ice. But I just, you know, I think Buffalo, there's going to be nights where they can just, they can get a couple points. I think they're going to be really motivated, right? Like they've been so bad for so long. Now there's a lot of juice there. There's some momentum.

There's some excitement. I just think they can come in with a focus to really make this start of something good there. What I, you know, so yeah, I feel good about it, but not great. Where are you at on the Christian Dvorak deal? I don't like it. Okay. I think it was, I think the, the coyote just tried to get a bit too cute with that one and overthink it a little bit.

That's a bit too pricey of an investment for me for a guy who hasn't shown that he deserves that type of love, I guess, is where I stand with it. Yeah, no, I, it's funny because I had this conversation with an agent. Those kind of deals, those $4 million long-term deals for guys coming out of their entry level, tend to always go to defensemen in they're always like universally applauded. They don't tend to go to forwards. And if, you know, if you think that, and I'm just talking it through because I haven't put a lot of thought into this contract. But, you know, if you think he's a center that's going to be contributing on your team, to me it's, you know, it's along the same lines of doing that for a defenseman. And you have to, if you're Arizona and you're, you're on a shoestring budget, you have to take some risks sometimes to have.

some value on your team. And it can't always be guys you're getting on waivers or in the draft. It has to be taking a risk on a contract like this and hoping three years from now he's worth five or six million. I just haven't gotten a lot of indication from Christian DeVorek that he's a five or six million dollar player. Well, here's, okay, here's the thought exercise. Like, what type of year are you realistically expecting Christian DeVorek to have in 2018, 19,

where he wouldn't settle for a six-year, $27 million deal next summer? right like i just like he's most more than likely going to be their third center behind derrick step an alaskil chenuk um based on his production so far at the nchl level uh i'll be it limited i just i'd like to see another year of him and see if you can take another step and be more productive and then if he does sure reward him with the same deal you just gave him but i just feel like you're taking on a bunch of risk that ultimately wasn't necessary and i guess that's the biggest issue with a contract like that right like with the defenseman one like the second john clingberg signed you were like boy that's going to be a good deal like the second yeah like obviously there's risk but

it's like okay well if clingberg has another season of being this productive offensively based on what we've seen from how defensemen get paid like his asking price is going to skyrocket so we're saving ourselves money down the road here with christian de borrack i feel like this contract is going to be there next summer no matter what unless like he he's not going to score such an outlandish amount of goals or generate enough points where he's going to be like 27 million. Nah, I'm good. I'll go for something bigger. But like people were crushing it.

Like it was, you know, Andrew Ladd. And like, if you're going to mess up a contract, mess up a 22-year-old center because he's still going to be useful on some level. For sure. Yeah. I think, well, it's August 10th or 11th. I think people are just like looking for stuff to get outraged about. All right, Craig. I'm looking forward to hearing the five.

minute PDOCAST read on the full 60 next year. This is a long time. Oh, man. I'm excited. All right. Plug some stuff. Oh, man. What are you doing these days?

If you're a podcast fan, if you made it this far, you are, subscribe to the full 60 and listen to it. It's, I love doing it. It's fun. Subscribe to the athletic, of course. You should. And if you haven't read, nice summer reading, you have a little bit of time left to get behind the bench

and get it maybe at the beach before it gets too cold. Awesome. Yeah, I co-sign all those things, and I appreciate you taking the time and come chat. It was fun. Thanks, I don't do a lot of these mailbag shows, but the listeners came through. Awesome.

Good stuff. All right, we'll chat soon. All right, Dimitio. We'll see you. The Hockey P.Ocast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at SoundCloud.com slash Hockeypedocast.