The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 250: Inside Job

Episode Date: August 29, 2018

Jason Rowe joins the show to discuss his time scouting for the San Jose Sharks organization, his recent transition to coaching at the collegiate level, and the resistance against fully embracing the use of analytics in hockey. Sponsoring today’s show is SeatGeek, which is making it easier than ever before to buy and sell sports and concert tickets. They’re giving our listeners a $20 rebate off of their first purchase. All you have to do is download the free SeatGeek app and enter the promo code PDO to get started. Every episode of the podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Play, and Stitcher. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes as they’re released. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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So when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart. Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich. And apologies to all of you listeners out there for the two-week hiatus.

Some life stuff and some summer stuff came in the way. But now we're approaching September here, and there's a lot of fun stuff on the agenda for the PDOCAST. We're going to get you ready for the upcoming season with the annual Top Ten Positional series, and we're going to do the watchability rankings and all that good stuff. But for now, we're still in August, which allows us some flexibility and freedom to kind of talk about more wide-ranging macro topics as opposed to just kind of focusing on the actual minutia of games themselves and player performance. And that brings me to our guest today.

It's someone that I've wanted to have on the show for a while now because I feel like, you know, I don't want his head to get too big after this, this is this beautiful intro I'm giving them. But it's someone whose expertise and line of work is a bit different from the guests we typically have on this show. So hopefully we'll be able to get into some fun conversation. some good back and forth about the game and where we're at and all that good stuff. And without further ado, today's guest is Jason Rowe.

Jason, what's going on? Hey, Dimitri, thanks for having me on. And I don't know, my head kind of did grow a little bit more. So thanks for that. Yeah, that was a, I usually, you know, I usually start these shows with the succinct hello and an introduction. And then all of a sudden I just say the guest's name and we get right into it. And I've had a few people kind of complain maybe that don't follow hockey as closely as

others that don't know who the guest is or what they do or sort of what their resume entails so um you know for those people let's uh let's discuss a bit where kind of what got you to this path and um is it you did nine years with the sharks i believe is that correct yes yeah so i was uh with the san Jose sharks in the you know scouting role for the um on the eastern conference mainly on the pro side uh for 19 years previously um and then the last two years i got into coaching um Last year, I was at, you know, NCAA school coaching a men's program, Southern New Hampshire University. And then this year, I accepted a position as assistant women's coach in Morrisville State College in Morrisville, New York.

So kind of really a bigger blanket, I guess, going from, you know, different avenues all around and, you know, going to get into the coaching from the scouting. And at the university level, it's exciting because I still get to go out and evaluate. I get to recruit, so I get to go out and talk to these student athletes. And I can also get now behind the bench and I can help these kids develop and, you know, kind of implement some of the things I see from when I was sitting in the press box. And now if the wrong player comes in or if it's not what I expected, it's my fault. I can't blame anybody else. So I want to get and unpack all of that.

But before we do, you know, just I was thinking because I feel. like you've been in my life for a while now. We've been talking about hockey a bunch privately and on a spare of time. But when did we first cross paths, I believe, it was the Vancouver Hockey Analytics Conference in like 2015 or 2016, I believe now, right? It seems like ages ago at this point. Yeah, I mean, that was it. It was actually going out.

I love going to those analytics conference because it really just opened out my eyes to a whole different, not a different way, but new people and new visions of the game. And went out to Vancouver and was kind of, you know, always. quietly follow you on Twitter and I saw you were going to be there. I had to make sure I reached out because I wanted to introduce myself to you just because I always, you know, get your head nice and big, but I always liked your ideas and your writing and I was following your podcast at the time there too. So well, yeah. And the reason why I did want to have you on the show is because I think, you know, you, and I think you'd say this yourself, you come from more of a

traditional hockey background in terms of how you got into the game and sort of the path you've taken. But I do in our, in my conversations with you, one thing I have. have noticed is, you know, you have a willingness to embrace new concepts and learn and and sort of acknowledging and embracing the fact that the game is changing quite a bit and there's certain adaptations that we can implement. And that's why I think it's so fascinating now that you have made that leap from the, from the scouting side to the coaching side, you actually have at least some sort of a say in terms of actually putting that stuff to practice as opposed to just being hypothetical stuff that we're writing blog posts about and talking about in the podcast.

you can actually see, you know, how that translates onto the ice itself. And that's the great part. I mean, I was just literally three nights ago. I was watching the RIT conference. I didn't get a chance to go to it. It was my wedding anniversary. So I figured that was probably maybe a little more important. So, you know, I'm watching Ryan Stimson and his partner for the presentation.

His name escapes him. I was watching their presentation about, you know, just changing the past. Angling Angel and how much it changed the percentage. And I actually got out in touch with Ryan and just said, talk to me a little more about this. And it's interesting because there's so much out there that you can learn just so quickly. Like I learned just from listening to you and, you know, I look at the Godfather with Rob Volman. And that's kind of where I really started. And to, you know, towards my end of my scouting career, I was kind of building some models for predictors on H.L rookies.

you know, and looking at teams that made the cup and what their minor league teams were doing for the three years prior to that into last year. I was trying to see what a lot of translations were going to be where I'm saying, all right, what is the history of a player looking like? And how can I expect him to come into my team for his freshman year? And what could I project him to kind of, you know, give me for points? So it's kind of been interesting that I can read all this work that you guys have. put out and you know i'm i'm graduating now and i uh i'm just i'm not a math guy but i like to i like numbers when i played i love numbers and i just think you can learn a lot from keeping an open mind and just everybody's got something it doesn't matter if you played in the league it doesn't

matter if he's never played somebody's got an idea either if it's leadership wise if it's why does this work like your entry uh work to me i i think is invaluable i've always been a huge fan of what you've done in that world. So, you know, it's just, it's nice to be able to now take that work, put it into, you know, my own form and go with Aaron and be able to translate it to the players. Yeah, you're obviously referring to the stuff I did with data for defensemen, mostly in the playoffs in terms of defending their own blue line with its own entries against and also the zone exits. And, you know, you mentioned earlier last season you were running the the the end of the penalty kill with the New Hampshire men's team.

Were you able to, you know, implement any of that stuff? Because I'm always curious, you know, there's a ton of sort of newer wave modern coaches in today's game. And it's slowly transitioning that way. But at the same time, you know, there's still so much pushback to new concepts and trying to do different stuff just because, you know, especially once you have the skin in the game, It's, you know, if you do stuff status quo and it fails, at least you're not going to take the personal blunt for it and all the blame for it. But if you really stick your head out there and stick your neck out there and you really, you know, try something completely creative in you that's not really being done in other circles. And it fails all of a sudden.

You're going to be kind of labeled as a pariah and ostracized. So I'm very fascinated how that dynamic work for you and whether you were able to actually key in on any of that sort of stuff. Yeah, you know, I tried. My head coach was great last year. You know, he was real open. And the conversations with him were great. It was me more getting my feet wet early on. And I came in with all these ideas.

I didn't want to, you know, first year coach. I didn't really want to overstep my boundaries and sense. You know, I was just trying to learn, take in as much as I could. And then we had our first assistant left at Christmas to go take a head job in Europe. So I actually got thrown into it in the second semester. And that's where I felt I had a little more of a base. And, you know, my head coach that allowed me to do a little more. And I said, hey, this is this is what I'm thinking.

What do you feel? You know, and he was open to a lot of my suggestions. And I did like that, you know, I let the guys make the mistakes. You let the guys kind of, you give them a little more of an onus on it. And I was in a fortunate spot that, you know, I was able to kind of use some of my past knowledge. and, you know, implement it in real game situations. Hey, we had a great year last year, which was nice. Yeah.

Well, it's interesting because I just, there are so many, you know, creative things you could do with that. And this year, spinning it forward, you're going to be running the power play, as you mentioned. And I feel like that is definitely one area where, you know, you could probably see more tangible results just based on the goals for numbers. And there's so much room to grow. there and, you know, the passing angles are one thing. I think that something else Ryan Simpson's really been hammering home is this idea of,

you know, setting up the office for your power play behind the net as opposed to the more traditional setup where you're just kind of bombing shots from the point and hoping that there's reflections and rebounds and whatnot. And I think that, you know, if I was going to give you one piece of advice moving for for next season, it would be to really hammer that home because I do think, we've seen teams adopt out a bit more, but for the most part, it still isn't as widespread as the data suggest it really should be well you know who did a heck of a job with it was the u.s women in the olympics and that's at the end of the year last year i had a chance right before playoffs we are

looking for some different options and i'm watching the u.s women i'm saying my god what are they doing here like it was and it was fun to watch and then you know you see some work and you take it look at you know you look at i think delo's done some work as well on it you start to see all this from behind the net now i mean i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm It's what I'm looking at doing for my power play, whatever it is, what it is. And you're going to watch it play probably once, and everybody can see it.

So it's not a big deal. It's all, but everybody knows when you do a one three one. So you just got to figure out how it's going to work. But I do think looking at the data out there and the lack of teams implementing that type of a system, it's going to take teams some time to adjust. And it's just a different look. And it's not the norm. And I think going back to what you're saying.

I think that's the biggest part of game that I'm interested in seeing. I like to see these new ideas. And now, like, you know, I'm a coach. So now I can actually bring it to my head coach and say, hey, this isn't, you know, a typical one, you know, one three one or this isn't your typical, you know, four check. Let's try something a little different. And last year I did with my PK in the neutral zone. I've had my strong side D stepping apart. at the red line to try to create an ice.

And, you know, the F2 was tracking back through the middle and they had certain responsibilities. The toughest part of all of that, it wasn't having the guys understand it when I'm explaining to them. They could tell me the rules. It was actually when we got onto the ice because it was so different than, you know, just your normal, you know, forecheck and the PK. It was actually getting to execute it. And in that type of a forecheck, if one piece didn't go, everything, it was an easy.

is they're typical they walked in and they could set up real easy so it's more of getting the players to buy in when something a little difference being taught is the is actually the interesting part when you have the freedom to to do something I guess a little new age or a different look no for sure and obviously the communication is part of that and also it's it's a lot easier for us as analysts to kind of sit back from home and just go you know you got to give it time it's a process, it's a longer sample size, in the long haul, this could really benefit you in terms of the honest results. But if you're running something different and then all of a sudden the first time, you know, if you have a player in a certain position and something deteriorates and maybe

if he would have been in his original position, he would have been able to stop it. All of a sudden, you know, players are just wired a certain way where they're going to look back at that and lamented. You know, I'm, I gave you the suggestion I'm reading this book about the Houston Astros called Astro World. And Astro Ball Ball. sorry. And it's really fascinating just from the perspective of how, you know, their front office comes from a more analytical background, but they tried to slowly but surely implement a lot of this stuff with their players, whether it was the defensive shifting and there was a lot of pushback to that or whether it was, you know, trying to lift the ball up more and hit more home runs as we're

seeing take place around an entire MLB now. So it's the communications part of it and also taking a bigger picture of you. And that's why I hate when reporters go to the locker room and ask players themselves about, you know, well, have you checked out your course here? What do you think about this, advanced that or that?

And obviously, you know, you get the regular eye roll, as you can expect. And you get the headline of all of this player's anti-analytics. And that's not what this is about at all. It's more so whether it's, you're making personnel decisions as a GM or whether it's as a coach and you're trying to figure

out your system. I think that's where the value is as opposed. to actually, you know, clogging your players' brains with a bunch of numbers that they ultimately don't need to have as a reference. Right. Well, even I was driving home from Morrisville here to New Hampshire the other day and going on our recruiting trip. And I'm listening to the Red Sox play the race.

And, you know, Tampa Bay's got this whole new pitching strategy if that's not one of their two or three starting pitchers they have left. You know, they're doing the opener. It goes, what, two innings maybe, are inning in a third. and then they bring in another guy for four to five. You know, so they've got it. It's almost like they're, you know, they've kind of revolution, not revolutionized, but they're re-looking at that pitching and how it's not just, well,

you march your starter out for six innings, and then you bring in a middle reliever, then your closers at the end of the game. You know, and I was listening to the caller guy who's going kind of nuts. You say, well, they're taking their time served away. And it's like, well, maybe they're actually just trying to win ball games with a small payroll. Yeah. Like, God forbid you try to look at something a little different and try something different.

It's worked out well for him from what I've seen. I think since I saw this down Twitter the other day since the day they implemented that, I think they have like a second best earner on average in the entire AL or something like that. And I know it's kind of weird looking at the box score. And if you're watching those games, it's still kind of tough to adjust to that. But the results are there. And I love the creativity. Even if the results weren't there, I just, I like the idea of pushing the envelope and thing outside of the box a bit.

and I guess that was sort of the kind of the whole concept of Moneyball. And after the movie came or maybe that got lost a bit in terms of entertainment product. But it's, you have to try some of this creative stuff. And I mean, you can probably speak this better than I because you spend so much time in AHL circles and watching that product. But something that is a common critique of mine, whenever I look into those numbers or happen to watch some of those games, it's that I feel like teams aren't doing enough with those farm teams in terms of pushing the development and trying some of those new things there.

I understand why an NHL team might be reluctant to try something completely out of the ordinary, especially if they're competing in the present. But I feel like the AHL or maybe at some different level of development, that's like a prime opportunity for you to try some of this new stuff. I don't know, try three forwards on the penalty kill, try being more aggressive, just because we've done it a certain way. And hockey doesn't necessarily mean that's the way it's going to be, you know, for the long haul. Right.

Well, hey, you know what? I mean, you don't have to look too far even looking something a little different was Toronto. Like when Kyle got there and you look at how they used Orlando and how they used their ECHL team. I'm a big fan of the ECHL. I think it's a great product. And especially now that it's, you know, every league has gotten a little younger. But Toronto, maybe four years ago, they really started loading up their ECHL.

team with, you know, some guys that you probably wouldn't, you know, you might grab on a PTO at sometime, but they actually went out and they probably had, you know, 15 affiliate contracts, maybe more down there. And you look at guys now, like I know Mason Marchman was down there. You know, I don't have the rosters in front of me, but they did a good job down there. You know, the ECHO used to be a place where, you know, back when fighting was still prevalent, you would have the heavyweights. You could go find a heavyweight there and you could find goalies. recently it's not you know obviously the heavy weights are gone but you can still go down there and find goalies but i like this i like what geronno did there for a while because i think

it gave they still had a winning environment in the hl with young players and they had key veterans in the right roles but then you have you still have some of your prospects down in the eCHL playing a ton of hockey instead of once a weekend or two times a week and you know i think something even probably wasn't looked at as, you know, a different view or trying something creative. It really was at the time just because ECHL wasn't used like that. I think now if you've gone through and looked at some rosters, you'd probably see some difference.

I know Nashville's always done a pretty good job with using, having some affiliate guys down there. But yeah, I thought that was something little. But, you know, HL, you know, moving to that Pacific division, you know, in Sousay, Anaheim, L.A., we all moved our teams out west. It's, you know, it's a little different in the sense of the travel schedules, but you know what the nice thing was? I'm sure, you know, everybody's got their pros and cons about it. I'm sure the league doesn't love it, but now that you're getting more teams out there and I'm just spitball in there.

However, three and threes are gone in that division. So like San Diego, San Jose stop. They don't play three and threes anymore. And as a scout, early in my career, towards late, Derek Graham was big help for me. He said, he goes,

you try to stay away from a Sunday game as much as possible when it's a three and three. Now, if you have to see a team, you have to see a team. But three and threes

were such a, you know, they weren't really a great indicator, a great game to evaluate outside of the mental aspect of the player. Because I know we've had some games when we were in Worcester,

we go from Binghamton back to Worcester, you know, after playing in Portland on Friday night. And by the time you get back on Sunday, play 3 o'clock game after playing, you know, two on a Friday and Saturday night, it's tough. Yeah, no, I mean, obviously, yeah, those conditions are pretty trying.

I know that, you know, I don't follow the HL as closely as I probably should, just in terms of watching the actual product, I feel part of that is, you know, if you're not catching it in person, and they're, we make fun of the NHL TV a lot, but the AHL's, AHL's affiliate for that is 10 times worse.

So it's watching grainy footage and it's like Zepruder film when you're trying to figure out where the players are and what's going on anyways. It's a complete mess. But the point is during the 2012-2013 lockout in those first couple months while we were waiting for the NHL to come back on, I was going out here a lot in Abbotsford and watching Abbotsford Heat, who were the Calgary Flames affiliate at the time. And yeah, it was just, it was jarring seeing some of the teams that would come through

where it was just, you know, there would be certain teams that would have a bunch of young, interesting prospects that you could actually glean something from and view their development and kind of try to figure out how that's going to project at the next level. Well, there were some teams that I just felt like weren't utilizing and optimizing all the resources at hand because if you just looked up and down the roster, it was just, you know, a bunch of, it was just composed fully of AHL lifers who were already in their 30s. And I just wondered whether that was the best way to utilize your AHL team as a resource for, you know, as a, farm team trying to grow talent and try to get guys, even if it's on the margins, we're going to

be fourth liners, a third-bearing defenseman that can eventually come in and step into your everyday lineup and actually contribute. Well, that's, you know, you want to win, obviously, because that winning helps build the, you know, your win environment up top. But if you're not, if you're not developing players, you know, it's, it doesn't help. If it's all, you know, if it's all the veterans and you're winning with one rookie in the lineup or you're winning with one prospect in lineup. Well, I guess your veterans are going to get paid and they're going to go and make a nice contract somewhere else. But as you can win and develop. And I think that's important.

You know, I kind of went through and was looking at three-year histories of AHL teams of the cup finalists going from 15, 16, all the way back. I just pulled it up here. It was probably to 08-09. So a pretty good sample and looking at it. And I pulled out who had played in the minor leagues, you know, who had played in the HL. And, you know, vast majority of the teams had, you know, five or less, about five or less, three to five, six players that had played no HAL.

And the rest of them had all had players playing in the HL and developing down below. Now, every team that won the cup, they had a winning percentage of over. 564, 565, except for Chicago in their backup year. And they beat the team in the finals with the lower winning percentage for three prior years. So if you had, let's say, so, you know, the year we lost in the Stanley Cup, San Jose. Pittsburgh had a 607 winning percentage in Wilkesbury. And we only had a 534. So you look at that and, you know, it's important to win because it obviously translate.

But they also, we both, both teams had a lot of players that played down in the HL and that I think helps when you can have that type of a plus 500 winning percentage for that long of a period because it does translate to Stanley Cup success in a sense. Well, yeah, and you look at, yeah, the Penguins is a great example of that, you know, they have routinely been picking at the bottom of the draft because their NHL team has been very good and they've been winning a lot of games. So you've got to kind of get creative and try to find guys. through different means and it's no surprise that you know for years there we would always kind of lament and and and critique the penguins for especially under race hero for not supporting crosbie and malkin with you know useful wingers on the cheap and supporting pieces and then under this new iteration when they won those back-to-back titles it was a lot of the connor shiris the brian russe the jake gensel guys who did cut their teeth a bit at the hl level and put up good numbers they

and really produced and I imagine you know that had a lot to do with their development and their success and their ability to move up to the next level and actually contribute with the penguins so I think you know they're a great example there's there's countless others I think you know the leaps right now and what they've been doing with the marleys um culminating in winning the calder cup this past year is is kind of the best most recent example and I'd be curious to see who is going to be the next team to kind of adopt that mantle this is Toronto team really is going to be fun to watch. I mean, it's, you know, it's the HocuMac.

You know, it's all the media attention. But what they've been doing for the last few years and now getting the Vars, like, it's going to be, it's going to be interesting watch because of what they've done with the Marley's. And now, you know, all these guys are all graduating and before anybody really needs to get paid before too long here, it's going to be, I'm really curious to watch them this year just for that same reason. Jason, the good news is finally someone will talk. about the Toronto Maple Leafs. It's sad for them.

Yeah, finally. It's good thing John Tavares games that we finally watch some of their games and talk about them in radar. At least you get to watch them early in the day before you get your West Coast games going. It's true, yeah. No, it's a good point.

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That's promo code PDO for $20 off your first Seekek purchase. And before we get back to Jason Rowe and the HockeyPedio cast, I want to get a little sentimental here. It's bonkers that this is the 250th episode of this show. And hopefully we will be fortunate enough to get to do at least 250 more in the seasons to come. but for that to happen I'm going to need to continue to see the support from you guys

it's been great so far and hopefully it continues and certain ways you can do that are really simple and we'll only take a couple minutes of your time whether it's go on on iTunes and leaving a positive rating and review for the show or you know following the

PDOcast on Twitter at PDOCAST or you know sending in your questions at hockeypedocast at gmail.com or on own personal ones so that we can use them for future mailbag shows and help spark different ideas and different topics um you know all of that stuff is greatly appreciated and hopefully uh you guys are going to turn out and support the show and with that said let's get back to jason bro okay um here's something that i wanted to talk to you about i was reading uh justin born wrote uh an interesting

article on the athletic a couple weeks ago now i believe and one of the points he was making was the concept of sort of the sneaky value you could have as an organization if you were able to detach yourself emotionally from the prospects you have in your pipeline when you realize the guy you drafted might not wind up developing into the impact player that you're hoping he'd be and I thought you'd be the right guy to talk to about this because considering your extensive A.HL. track record and sort of what goes into that because we know with the endowment effect and and all that that teams have a really tough time doing so when you draft the guy and he's in your system and he's your property. All of a sudden, you just tend to kind of think about him in this kind of best case scenario where it seemingly every prospect is going to hit their absolute ceiling.

And obviously we know that it's not necessarily that way. And in reality, so if you are watching a young player who's kind of going through those growing pains at the AHL level, like, what are you looking for? because I guess it's one thing to say that a player who produces the HL level is automatically going to translate and do well to NHL and it's another to kind of look at a guy who's struggling and go okay well I think we can completely write him off now for for X, Y, and Z reasons. Also it's funny, I was reading that same article I had it up on my computer because I wanted to talk to you about it and it is it's almost it's a scary thing

I guess like with your prospects you put so much time time and money into these prospects that you want them to succeed. So that was kind of what I was looking at towards the end of my, you know, scouting was what is what is there, what's the translator? What can you look for that is going to help you get to the next player, you know, to the next level? So everybody kind of has a feeling when, like when Logan Cature came into league, everybody knew he was going to be a stud with what he was doing.

A lot of it was age-based. I know we've done a ton of age-based analytics, but, you know, know, a rookie, just because you're a rookie didn't mean anything. If you were a 24-year-old rookie, 25-year-old rookie, or, you know, 23 even, and you were only putting up about half a point of game as a forward, that wasn't really great mark for you. And if you were below that, it was, you know, your percentages really dropped. And it's interesting just, I think age and Corey Pram,

and I know has done a lot of work on it. I think that's kind of maybe where I got my idea to try to make something was age helps out a lot. But everybody hangs on the prospects because you're waiting because you did draft the guy or you signed a guy for a reason. And you're waiting to see that again, I guess. You know, and sometimes there's just not the market. Like, you know, you think about when I was reading that article, it's, you know, if you want to trade player X, well, it might be too late because everybody else doesn't want player X unless you have to take on their best. bad prospect that's not that's not working so why don't you just hold on to the guy you know especially if your locker room's good and he's a good guy and you know so there's a lot of different

things that go on but it's yeah right i mean obviously if you're going to make a trade it takes two to tango you can't if there isn't a party that's interested in your prospect it's you can't force it but it's i mean every team i feel like every fan base has their iteration of the you know kind of floundering prospect roster player and a second or third round pick for like some other great player that's already in the league and already thriving and those are always funny

those most mock proposals are always hilarious to see but it's I don't know I'm very curious about it because you know you look at like the senators for example I thought they did a really good job with how they moved off of a guy like Curtis Lazar and wound up getting a second round pick for him and he's a player who had already

you know, spend a bunch of time in the NHL level with very overwhelming results, but he came into the league with a high prospect pedigree, but then there's other guys, whether it's a Cody Cici or a Jared Cowan in the past that for whatever reason, they've had a really tough time moving on from even though all the statistical indicators suggested that they probably should. And I wonder maybe part of that it just might have to do with defensemen because it just seems like

even with all the information we do have right now, that's the one area where we're really struggling to kind of quantify value and also figure out the developmental curve and the aging process and what when guys really are going to peak because there's still this widespread belief in hockey circles that defensemen don't really peak until they get into their late 20s which you know we've disproven but it still seems to be kind of the working angle the GMs are taking well and you're putting and you're putting put it um you know how many is cody played he's played let's see here i got three three hundred sixty six games i mean you know so i get with the age but you know like that's why i kind

of really started diving into the analytics was because yeah lazar when i watched him i'm saying god that guy is sexy he should he should be a player it's that i test it's it's it's the it's the it's the i test versus the the the the analytic or the numbers test however you want to say it And how many, like, I can't even tell you how many players I've fallen in love with because I think they look great. And they've got that hidden something that I think will translate it. But man, when you, when you just run a simple look at their, you know, some type of numbers, you can do it for everybody. Depending on levels, now that we're getting better information, it makes it, makes it easier, I guess, where you can dig a little deeper.

But I think sometimes you're just saying, I love this guy, this guy is going to work and let's make it happen. even though all the other indicators tell you no, so that's why it's nice to have some type of a process where you can be told no by something other than your eyes. Like a model. Yeah, yeah, I mean, everyone has those guys. I mean, it's, and that's one of the challenges, obviously, with just purely going based on the eye test,

I feel like if I could, you know, properly evaluate and watch every single player enough times, I'd feel very comfortable having the strong opinions, opinions about them, but it's really tough to do so as just one person. And then even if you do, your eyes really can deceive you sometimes and maybe those one or two tools that you're seeing, whether it's a speed or a size or puck handling skills that you're wowed by, if they don't ultimately translate to on ice results, whether it's individual or on a team basis, then it only really takes you so far. Right. It's funny. I actually just wrote a paper on something like this

about our decision making and judgments and our processes. Everything's so biased. You know, we all have, even if we're not aware of it, we have our own biases, regardless to what they are, whether it is how they skate, where they're from, how tall they are, when they're born, you know, anything. We have these underlying biases that always cloud our judgment. So that's why it's nice to have something that can kind of strip that down and, you know, take, take the reports of the I test, take, you know, the analytics.

take, you know, the analytics, watch some video, you know, do the background homework just to make sure the character is right on the guy. Or do you feel well enough to bring it? So there's a lot of different pieces. And I feel like that's how that's overall what it should be in a sense that you should have a total package. And I mean, because if, you know, you just go on strictly numbers, you're going to be, you're going to be in trouble. If you're going to just go strictly I, you're going to be in trouble. I think you have to have pieces. And that's something I think that gets lost when I see the Twitter wars happen on both sides at times. Yeah, I mean, obviously, internet nuance is lost. Of course, there's an interplay between those two, and I think

anyone that says otherwise is fooling themselves. When you were working as a pro scout for the sharks, you mentioned some of those guys that you'd be infatuated with watching them play. Well, it was, what was a certain prototype or a certain type of player that you really found yourself constantly being drawn towards. Was it like the combination of size and skill? Or was it what have you? Because for me, it's on the record, it's defensemen that can carry the puck themselves. It's one of my biggest weaknesses. And sometimes it's very easy. I find myself overvaluing it a bit. You know, you watch a guy like Roman Yose, for example. And it's, if you catch him on the right night, you could really talk yourself into believing he's the best defenseman in the league.

And then, you know, you look at the numbers and he's a great player. But there is a bit of a difference between him and some of the other tough guys and maybe some of the stuff he's doing great that pops off the page with that skating ability is mitigated by certain other areas of his game. So you know, you got to kind of bake that all into the recipe. I think my biggest, you know, kind of like the guys I would fall for were the guys that had unfair biases against them, I guess. Or, you know, you know, Russians. like Russians people don't like Russians because they're Russian and it's just I didn't know I never understood that and I get that they can go home but I also it was almost like the underdog guy I guess the guys that aren't supposed to make it that you know are proving themselves that they can play at a certain level and maybe are boxed out you know a lot of it was typically like sometimes you just try to force a fit into what the needs were of the big club at the time but you know a lot of it was typically like sometimes you just try to force a fit into what the needs were of the big club at the time but Yeah, because I'm trying to think I can remember a couple, you know, one defenseman prospect for the Rangers a couple years ago that went back. And Tampa Bay had a guy that I absolutely loved and been following him in the KHL still.

So are you, you know, this is obviously a podcast that people don't have a visual. Are you wearing your Nikolai Goldobin shark's jersey right now? Not, not today. No. But it's, you know, like it's interesting to watch. it's interesting to see because I think once you figure it out because we even had

this talk one day, you know, years ago when I was, probably four years ago when I was with San Jose still, Doug asked everybody in the room, so what is your I guess weakness, your soft spot? And, you know, it was interesting to hear and it made you think because I think it just opens up your eyes and makes you aware

of it when you're out on the road. And, you know, I do it now still when I'm recruiting. You know, what do I love and how the game is, which is now? I'm like, you. You know, last year, we, we needed a puck move in D pretty hard for Southern New Hampshire. And that was kind of where I was really focused on. And if you could do exactly like you said, if you could bring it up and bring it up with some pace and make some plays, well, here we go. I'll overlook some other things. So. Yeah, yeah. No, it's, I mean, everyone's got their,

there's certain prototypes that they find themselves drawn to. It's, when you talk about market inefficiencies right now and obviously teams have gotten smarter as times gone on and you know we see it at the draft now and you know goalies aren't being taken super high players who don't contribute high offensive totals and in major junior for example typically don't go as high as they used to in the past maybe a guy like barred hayden is is an anomaly there with with the Arizona code he's taking as high as they did this year but it seems like teams are wising up to certain statistical indicators acknowledging that you're never going to have it 100% right and it still isn't an exact science. But, you know, having the fortune of working in the industry for nine years, there obviously you saw quite a bit of a changing of the guard and you were in the game for that, this kind of analytical revolution that we've seen at the NHL level.

What do you still believe that some of those biases are still involved in terms of, you know, the smart teams will be able to get a leg up on a competition just by prioritizing certain skill sets or certain types of players that still are overvalued or undervalued by other organizations? Yeah, yes, I do. I just think that gap is shrinking, but I still think the smart teams and the teams that do it well, or maybe not do it well, but adapt the quickest and are willing to make, you know, kind of going back to where we were in the beginning, are willing to make that much. mistake, but are willing to kind of try a new process and look at something and adapt something

quickly. I think that's where the leg up is because I feel, I mean, you know, I don't know what every team does. I'm assuming every or most teams do it and you read enough about it, but everybody does it to a different degree, varying degree. And I think somebody that can adapt a model quickly can have a leg up. The unfortunate part is, is our game is so much different than every other game out there. You know, when I first started hearing all this analytic stuff, I remember talking to some of the guys about soccer, and I'm saying, what's the deal?

And they're saying, you know, they kind of went through, and I'm not a soccer fan. But it's a slower game, too. And the passing, you know, everything's a little more drawn out. You know, basketball is basketball, baseball stationery, and football's a three-second sport. So our game is so different, and we're still, I loved watching that war explosion go on.

What was it last week? Because it is, a catch-all number is nice. And I know I've made some with a catch-all number for certain players or certain groups of players. But, you know, you still got to go back and do your homework and make sure it's just if you're willing to make the mistake is where you can get that leg up. Yes. Oh, definitely. I think, yeah, that I've tried to enjoy my summer and stay out of that debate because I don't think there's much progress being made or much, you know, people don't. don't typically, when they had their mind made up in some of these online debates, it's, you know,

you don't want to hear the other side. You just want to yell into the wall and hope that the other side eventually comes on board. But it's, you're right. There's obviously flaws and, you know, there's certain, I think ultimately though, I think it's a net positive. And I always find the argument that, you know, hockey analytics isn't what it was in the past because, you know, certain hockey minds have been poached from the internet and are working for teams now. And, you know, we're not evolving fast enough or, you know, progress isn't being made quickly enough. I think completely missing the point because if you look at where we are now with what we know and sort of some of the stuff out there compared to where it was even five years ago,

it's just leaps and bounds better. And I don't have any time for the argument that it's their contrary. Well, it's just, it's, it's crazy. If you're so stuck in one side of an argument. It's just you're not going to, you're not going to learn the other side and why somebody, it's just like any debate. Why won't you talk with somebody to figure out what they're thinking so you can maybe come to some other agreement? And, you know, like I told you, you know, a little big, I went into a shell last year and kind of stayed away from the league for a bit. And, you know, now that I'm coming back, I'm starting to see these guys, because I did start to see that. I'm saying, what are people talking about? Because I can still find information I want to find

and read some pretty good stuff. And then I started finding the newer, the newer, the newer, wave, I guess you could call it. You could say. And that's what you need. Baseball went through it. I mean, there's still everybody, you always go through it because teams do get poached. It's just not as, it's not as publicized, I guess. It's not as, it's not like that summer of analytics where everybody was on fire and, you know,

everybody was getting poached. And then war on ice was gone and, oh, my God, what are we going to do? Well, there's still plenty of other good stuff. You know, I haven't, I don't use those sites as much anymore just because my focus has changed. so I won't say who it was just in case it's gone. But there's so much good information out there and so many good people still writing, still doing some great work. You just have to look to find it.

And it's not hard. If you can Google the right words, you can find anything on the internet. Trust me. Yeah. No, I mean, listen, whether it's, you know, Mani with all the work he's done with Corsica and his war model, or whether it's the evolving wild guys who I'm hoping to have on soon to talk about. this very topic and also deep dive Minnesota Wild or whether it's you know Dom and his work at the athletic with projections and game score and all that like there's you know hockey analytics and

analysis online is still in a great place and uh if you're a fan who wants to think the game at a bit of a deeper level and wants to consider that stuff um i think this is a good time to do so and anyone that tells you otherwise is kind of afraid of some of the uh some of the changes in evolutions are happening in the spirit. I don't even think it's a deeper level. I think it's, I don't know, maybe it's kind of the, I don't know, I've grown a blank on the war, but maybe it's the topic of all this is maybe it's just a different look.

For sure. It's just to have a different, it doesn't even have to be deeper. It's just to try to maybe understanding the game a little differently because you look at baseball like you said at Tampa Bay, they're changing something. So why are they doing it? It's maybe just a why and to figure out instead of just sitting back and watching a game. No, you're 100% right. When I say deeper, as soon as I said it, I was like, that sounds so condescending. I don't mean that in any way. It's definitely, listen, even if you don't have the answers and stuff, I just think the act of itself of asking the questions and considering potential other avenues to improve your team and get more out of your players, I'm all for always, even if it leads to a dead end and you wind up having to kind of scratch that out of the equation and go back to the drawing board. Well, you guys have all been great.

I mean, the amount of, the amount of, I mean, I say you guys, I put you in like, you know, all your analytic guys, whatever you want to call the group. The computer ways. The computer. There you go. I've got my T-shirt somewhere around here. But it's, you guys have all been great because every conference I've gone to, you know, Microwe McCurdy. My God, I, uh, the amount of information.

I used to sit there with his screen up. Yes, I paid the, I paid the Patreon full amount. But I used to sit with his screen up because I wanted to see what information he had after games that I didn't see with my eyes and the reports. But I met so many of you guys at these conferences. And to me, I almost felt like, well, you know, I shouldn't waste their time. And it's like, well, are you kidding me? You can learn so much from them. Why wouldn't you go introduce yourself?

And that's why I reached out to you when I saw you in Vancouver. It's because you can learn so much. And you guys are all so great to reach out to whether it be on Twitter. everybody's been so open and accessible to be able to ask questions about things. Well, I appreciate that, Jason. You know, we're at the point of the show now. We're complimenting each other. I think it's time to end this episode.

So I guess, you know, I'm so used to the question at the end of the show asking people, you know, what they're working on and stuff, obviously for you. That's a bit of a different equation. But I know that you're really excited about, you know, running the power players we were talking about with the women's team and sort of, you know, seeing where this whole coaching things takes you. And I'm really fascinated

to watch it from afar because some of the stuff we've talked about in this show and some of the stuff you and I have talked off the air. We need more minds

actually in the trenches working with the teams that are trying to implement some of this stuff and seeing whether we can reap the rewards of it. Maybe if I put a championship team together I can fight

I'll get you out east for a party. Awesome. I'm looking forward to it. Thanks for taking the time to come chat, man. It was a lot of fun. Hey, thanks a lot to meet. Appreciate it.

I'll have you on soon. The Hockey PDOCast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypediocast.