The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 285: Vasilevskiy's Perfect Storm

Episode Date: April 3, 2019

Kevin Woodley joins the show to discuss all things goaltending. Topics include: Evolution of goalie metrics over time (3:00) What to look at when evaluating goalie play (11:00) Peak performance vs. Consistency (19:15) Defensive system vs. Individual play (28:30) Darcy Kuemper's remarkably improbable run (34:50) Andrei Vasilevskiy's Vezina resume (45:10) Younger league, younger goalies? (54:20) Betting on Bobrovsky long-term (59:40) Advanced scouting of playoff goalies (1:02:40) Every episode of the show is available on iTunes, Spotify, Soundcloud, Google Play, Stitcher, and wherever else you may typically get your podcasts. Make sure to subscribe to the show so that you don’t miss out on any new episodes. All ratings and reviews are also greatly appreciated, especially the ones of the 5-star variety!See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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It's the HockeyPedioCast. With your host, Dimitri... Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich. and joining me is my good buddy Kevin Woodley. Kevin, what's going on, man? Not much, I'm happy to be here. I think this is the first time I've had you on this incarnation of the show.

I remember back, like, this might have been like 2010 or 2011. I just got it. Like, I had like five followers on Twitter. I was just starting with my friend. And we started her own blog called So You're an Expert.com. And I remember one time we landed you for like a 10-minute hit on like the Canucks Goleys or something at the time. And I was like, oh, my God. We landed Kevin Woodley.

I've been following this guy's work. I'm so excited. So that's what I like to do. I like for a full hour. I like to, uh, appear on things that pretend I'm an expert. So you're an expert? I'm like, yeah, absolutely.

I'll fake that for 10 minutes. This is right up my alley. Yeah, no, we go way back. I remember during the 2012 lockout, we would like hang out in the Abbotsford heat. I guess like in the stands. It wasn't even really like a press box. I miss the days of the avids.

I miss having American hockey league access close. I kind of wish we could get a team. And especially during that lockout, like that was I guess one of like there's a lot of negatives. One of the positives was that a lot of like the yellow. young prospects that probably would have been on NHL teams were like playing those games there. I remember like, I don't even know what the Oilers affiliate was.

I was just going to say, remember, I think it was Oklahoma City. And they came through town with like, they had like Schultz there. I think even like Hall. Everley was there. Just like murderous row for the American hockey league. Kind of a little ironic looking back that that hasn't quite panned out for them at the national league level. No, but it was a big deal I remember.

And so hopefully we don't have to go through that again in a couple years. but we'll see. And more so recently, you and I were combatants in the Eddie Lack fantasy football league. Yeah, I got my ass handed to me there, as I typically do. Did you beat me too? I think everybody else beat me. I had a pretty good team, although I think Batchford won it.

I don't think he wanted this year. As long as Eddie didn't win it for a third straight year, that's all that mattered. Although I'm a little worried about him now. He has created some pretty good teams over the year, and now that he has more time on his hands, I'm worried he's just going to absolutely crap kick us for the next 10 years.

years and we'll hear about it forever. So you and I are going to talk about goalies today. You're replacing Nick Mercodante and some of the other people I've had your new PDOCAS goalie expert. Perfect. Perfect. So it's definitely an upgrade for you. It is definitely an upgrade.

Just kidding. Shout out Nick. No, no. It's a big up. I mean, Nick, Nick's always just pulling stuff out of his ass. It feels like you're actually coming here prepared and you've really been diving into this. And we're going to talk more about your playoff project coming up and some of the stuff you're

doing for NHL.com and all that. But we'll save those plugs for the end. let's get into sort of the art, the craft of goalies. And especially the analytical side of it and sort of the evaluation from our perspective of like this development over time over the past five, 10 years. I don't know how long ago it was when people were a citing, which is wins as purely like the go-to be all end all for goalie metrics

and whether a goalie was performing or not. Then we went to goals against average. Well, pain of my existence is I still have as a goalie writer, but I also still write generically for NHL.com. comment. And so when we list stats and stuff, I purposely, I hope my editors aren't listening to this, but I always leave out goals against average. And I would say 60, 70% of the time, the desk inserts it back in. I'm just like, it's such an irrelevant stat to stay about a goaltender. So I just leave it out. But hopefully this doesn't get me in trouble admitting that. Well, it really tells you nothing.

And I thought it was like the best example of it. And there's so many on a nightly basis. But there was that one game recently between Tampa Bay and Washington where Vasilevsky had like a 935. save percentage in that game and had like over four goals against and it was just like he saved like 50 something shots and if you just look at the goals against it's like oh my god this guy got destroyed today it's like yeah i think he had a pretty good game otherwise so um but yeah so we've gone we've gone wins goals against average save percentage just as a raw metric then 5-15 save percentage then we're coming into now like goals saved above average we're looking at actually more into like the actual tracking of individual shots and where they're coming from and where they're being shot in terms of on net and on target and So I'm very fascinated about this because obviously we know about all the developments from a skater perspective. And I feel like those are much more understood and much more readily cited in articles and podcasts. But in terms of goaly stuff, I don't know necessarily we're lagging behind. But like at least on a public level, like it still seems like we're like just scratching the surface of where we're eventually going to be. I think every time we've added context, it's a good thing.

I do think we have to grain of salt some of that context. The people that are doing the breakdowns, you know, to create things like HDMD and SDSA percentage, are doing incredible work. And I fully believe in their abilities. I don't believe that location provides enough context. I know there was a presentation in Seattle recently that indicated pre-shot movement maybe had been overrated in terms of how much it changed. changes based on location. But to be honest, I haven't seen the paper. I couldn't go to Seattle.

Just because the Canucks were playing that weekend, it seems every time there's a conference. I really want to go to one of those. So I love the work that those people do. I really want to see that paper because what I've seen getting a glimpse behind the curtain at something like, say, ClearSight Analytics by Stephen Valacette, where they're measuring 34 points of data per shot.

Location is included, but pre-shot movement, specifically whether it crosses the slot line, whether you make a goaltender turn from one side to the other right before a shot, like either a one time or a quick carry and release or a catch and release. I think he's got an actual time limit on when it counts as cross slot line or when it's just you're there and it doesn't count. Traffic is massive.

So we don't measure any of that in the publicly available data. And so again, it's not a shot at the people doing the work in any way, shape, or form. Like I said, context of HD and MD and goal saved above average. Guys like Cole Anderson and the work he's doing, like I pay attention to this and I believe in its value. What I'm really excited about is hopefully this new tracking will allow people that are able to look at the game that way and break it down that way and do this work to have some of that other contextual information that to this point is kind of limited to some of these

private companies. And to give you the best, I don't want to say best example, because I think it's probably not fair of me i know they would say sample size matters um from the analytic side and that cherry picking one or two examples is not fair on my part but there was a piece on dupnik uh this year that the athletic ran in minnesota and i think they were using evolving wild stats yeah and they were tearing them apart for a couple of goals from the point um and they used them as examples so i guess you know small sample size they use those as examples of the problems for him and I don't have it in front of me, so I can't say for sure. But basically the numbers were less than 2% that they said that should go in from that.

It's up at top of the traffic. Like, if I see, like, absolutely. Honestly, if I see that shot with no traffic, I make a save. My beer league team will tell you that might be a stretch. So I get it. But when I ran those two scenarios by ClearSide Analytics and had them take a look at them, because I could see as a goaltender, it wasn't just screens. It was layered screens.

And so they're measuring the different layers of the screens for difficulty. And so those two examples that were being used in an article based on the 1.2 or 1.5% of the time they should go in and how Duby's letting these in, we're actually closer to 15% or 17% based on ClearSight analytics because of the layered screens. It's not just whether you can see the release. And then it's whether, you know, where that puck comes out of traffic, I think in Duby's case, one of them came out of traffic like, I want to say, right around the hash marks, all of a sudden, boom, the body moves. There's a pot coming in its head at high, high glove, and he can't catch up to it. And the irony is, it's not just, it's not just the analytic people.

I know for a fact that his head coach thought he should have had it too. Right. And yet, from a goaltender perspective, it's like, are you freaking kidding me? Like, no, if you're picking up that late and you're already moving one way, you don't get to go back the other way. Like, you can't just, this isn't the matrix. You don't get to pause. everything around you and react. So I just think, again, not criticizing that per se, but that's an

example to me of the difference when we start to add those layers of context. I don't know that we ever get to perfect. No. Because even if that screen increases the odds, how the goalie manages it, how you pick a side on a screen, short side, far side, whether that works with the defensive system. I mean, even screens, like, there are systems in place within teams in terms of how you manage screens. What side of a screen the goalie takes, what side the defenseman is supposed to block. And until you can sort of add all that and know who did their job and who didn't, the number of times I see a screenshot go in and the goalie get blamed for it. And I'm like, yeah, no, far side. I happen to, you know, I happen to have had that conversation. And I know that's the defenseman's lane.

And goalie's taking short side. And so if it gets through on that side, that's not actually on the goaltender. Until we have all that information, we're never going to get perfect. But I think we're getting closer. And I think that if we can get these people, these really smart people looking at better information will get that much closer, hopefully in the near future. Yeah. No, I agree. I mean, obviously it's like small baby steps and I think just we shouldn't be demoralized

just because we're not getting like a perfect clear picture right away. Like the fact that we're adding contextual layers, as you said, is huge. And all beats the hell out of wins and goals against average. It certainly does. At the same time, though, like, I mean, you and I are going to talk later in the show about sort of the Bessna Ballad and the discussion and who should be up there in the top three to five or whatever. And I'm very curious. to pick your mind about sort of what you look at when you're looking at that stuff in terms of what,

you know, what you're more most impressed by or what, if you're just like kind of looking as, from a statistical level, what catches your eye from a goalie's performance, whether you're valuing the workload, whether you're valuing like the difficulty of the shots and maybe how a defensive systems playing in front of them, like with a guy like Freddie Anderson, who's overall numbers might not necessarily be the most impressive. But then when you watch them and you look, peel back the layers a bit, you're like, okay, like, this guy's not really getting a fair shake here in terms of what the team's giving up in front of them. So the fact that he's keeping them in a lot of these games should probably be given some

more stock and some more value. So I'm kind of curious, like when you're looking at some of this stuff, what are you valuing more from the numbers perspective? Well, I'd be honest with you. Like, I would, I place value in the numbers. I place value in things like goals saved above average. And like I said, I get a glimpse at some of the proprietary stuff. and when it differs significantly from what's sort of publicly available,

like there has to be, you know, again, I don't, I'm not looking at, I don't have the black box and I'm not smart enough, frankly, to be one of these people whose work I just talked about that could take that information and contextualize it myself, so I wouldn't even know. But when I see the discrepancies, when I see sort of a wide variance there, and it's usually actually pretty small, to be honest with, the same goalies end up near the top of most list.

Right. Not always, though. I think those are the most interesting parts because then it makes you really kind of like take a deeper look and go like, why is there a discrepancy? It's kind of boring when everything lines up equally. Exactly. And that's where I get skeptical. And I don't mean to be skeptical just to the public stuff. I just, you know, and I should probably be just as skeptical as the private stuff.

I know a lot of people are because they haven't seen that black box. But, you know, I trust in the people behind it. And so I put a little more weight there. there's been a few instances over the years where I think the general narrative or assumption was that a goalie was struggling and he was playing behind a good team and it must be all on the goalie. I'll give me one example. I don't have the numbers in front of me right now. I'll look on my phone while I talk. So Marty Jones last year.

Yeah. Because I just did, like I just for the NHL playoff project, I just did his last 100 goals. I finished him last night tracking the last 100 goals and kind of looking at how they're going in. I had another. Was that over this? span of like 10 games or? That's good. Just say that I didn't have to go as far back into 2018 to get through the last

hundred on him as I did on some other guys. You know, but last year, so I had his numbers for the year last year. I've actually asked for these numbers. I was hoping to have him for today when we talk. I didn't get him yet, but I took a look at his numbers last year.

And again, his numbers were down individually. And I think the perception was that San Jose was a good defensive team in general. And I saw on a lot of the, you know, again, don't have the numbers in front of me, but if I remember correctly, like he didn't, he didn't plot too high on the goals saved above average last year.

He was kind of where his raw numbers were. When you added the context that CSA had, we were talking about a goalie who jumped up into the, and I can't remember top 10 or top five. It may have even been top five, but definitely top 10. Like it was a vast difference from public perception, the public analytics,

and then the private were significant. And I watch him this year, and I see both, right? like this is the problem. I see both. I'm sharing these goals and I'm like, no chance, no chance, backdoor, odd man rush, two on one, one timer over the pad, uh, back door one timer makes a save rebound, rebound. That goes back across the slot line tapped in. I'm like, that's not on him. Right. There's a lot of those, right? And there's a danger of just looking at goals. In a perfect world to judge, I would look at all the shots myself and measure them myself. Right. But I can't hit pause on the clock and have time like,

you know, there, you know, the clock still ticks. for me and I don't have enough hours. So I rely on other people to do that. I look at the goals, which is always dangerous because you're only looking at the mistakes or the defensive breakdowns. And I see a crap ton of defensive breakdowns. I see a ton of odd man rushes. But I also see a goalie who has no rotation in his movement, who sometimes ends up with only the pad there to make a save because he doesn't get rotation or make a good push. He comes across flat. He gets sprawled out. I see a guy who comes off, open releases a lot and sort of ends up chasing pucks with his hands behind him rather than closing down on them in front of them.

I see a guy who, you know, I keep, and this was the tough one charting it, it's like, okay, is that a screen? Yeah, that's a screen. Yeah, that's a screen. You can see him fighting. You can see him put his hands up that he clearly didn't see it after the goal goes out. But when I look at how he managed that screen, right? And the fact that he disappeared behind it and essentially dropped right behind the guy screening

him and took up the same space rather than fighting for a sight line, I'm like, well, okay, yeah, that's a screen goal. but I didn't love how he managed it. And, you know, is their system in place where the defenseman takes the middle and he takes a short side? Is there a reason he's always kind of looking around the guy or instead of picking a side? Like, there are so many variables in goal tending. And to come out with an absolute answer and a position with that many variables with where there are no absolute so often, it's tough. So I rely on the statistical breakdowns.

And I take each of them with a grain of salt. I probably take CSI, CSA numbers, a little. you know, more verbatim, so to speak, and I add it all up and probably come up with the same number a lot of people do. It's Andrew Vasseleski. Well, and I think those, I think all of those variables are kind of combined to add to a lot of the frustration for people, especially in media, when you're trying to like get a good grasp of what's going on and sort of describe who's playing well and who's not. And then you have so much volatility at the position for any number of reasons where a guy can just inexplicably have an amazing season and then drop off the next.

next year or two years later. And it's like, it's kind of our job to be able to pinpoint exactly and tell people why it's happening or sort of see the future and be like, oh, I think these are going to be the three to five best goalies. If I could see the future or goal tentating, I'd be honest, as much as I've enjoyed these conversations over here, I'm not here, right? Yeah. Right. I'm getting paid very well if I could see the future. I mean, we can, but I think we'll get closer as we get that information. As I said, as these people I talked about, Cole Anderson, and the people like behind sites like evolving wild and Corsica and all these places, you give them even more information and see the work they've done with limited information.

And like we could have those answers a lot more affirmative than we do now. A lot more sort of, you know, a lot more correlations between what we expect and what we see if you get that information in the hands of those people. And sometimes, like I said, Vasselowski is probably obvious to everyone. Yeah. But the guy who's right there with them, you know, there's a, another one of those cases between public and private. Kerry Price, and again, I haven't got the numbers for the end of March,

they're gathering, but by the end of February, you know, based on the shot quality that we all want to measure, at least in terms of CSA, Kerry Price had saved 31 goals above average, and so at Andre Vasselowski. And when you look at the sort of the public GSAA listings, carry is well down. And some people had them as a negative.

And I know he had a terrible start, and that's still weighs in it. But by the end of February, you got one company says he's exact right there, with Vasilevsky and you got other people who have them barely above average and those are the discrepancies I'm talking about not struggling to understand but wanting to understand more about yeah no for sure I mean price is interesting we'll talk a bit more a lot of more when we get to the to the uh to the Vesna discussion I had a few other sort of like uh philosophical questions here about goaltending what do you as the game's all about between the ears not between the pipes this is where I struggle too eh I can tell you technically what's going on why this guy's late to this

puck I can look at biomechanics I've studied it at you know frankly, biomechanics, like some of the new stuff that's out there at a level that there are NHL goalie coaches

that aren't there yet. But that's not always what makes the difference between making a save and not making a save so much of it's mental. And the one thing I've always,

always, always hesitated to do because I've seen other quote unquote goalie people and analysts get just burned mightily by it is tell you what's in between a guy's ears. Try and project

to what they're, how they're handling things mentally. There are signposts. There are pressure situations. You can see how they measure up statistically and see if their game changes stylistically in big moments. But to be able to see in guys inside a guy's head, like I said,

I know too many people who have put themselves in really bad spots trying to project how a goaltender thinks about the game and whether they're able to, whether they're going to succeed based upon that. Look at that guy's body language. Look at his shoulder slumping. Yeah, exactly. What do you, okay, what do you,

what do you value or what do you prioritize and I guess this would depend on maybe the team you had in front of the goalie but um would you value peak performance so like a goalie you have a goalie who can steal you games and when he's on top of his game look like the best goalie in the world would you rather have a guy who's maybe his heights aren't as high but his lows also aren't as low and he's just kind of consistent as going to keep you in as many games as possible well might depend on the situation and obviously like i guess for san Jose they would probably love a guy who can just not cost them any games because the skaters are so good that they could probably outscore teams that way.

Right. And I would say that what I value there the most is consistency, like, consistency, right? Right. Like consistency matters in a position with so much volatility. I guess, you know, am I going to take a consistent 9-10 over a guy who will run 9-25 for two months but then dip to 9-10? You know what I mean? It depends where the highs and lows are.

But consistency is massive, right? Like, you know, you take a look at, you can take a look at, like, Carolina is kind of perfect situation. I kind of expect them to run Marazic in the playoffs. That would be my hunch from the outside. And I actually wish I'd, you know, before I say this, I wish I'd take a little bit closer look at the last couple of weeks for them. I haven't gotten there yet in terms of I'm waiting for them to get the X beside their name before I spend a hundred. You know, risk it. Go, yeah, I don't have enough hours in the day to do 100 goals on a guy who doesn't make the playoffs. But my hunch would be Marazic because of the upside. Yeah. And knowing that you can probably go back to McElheny if

the, if the bubble bursts on that upside. But understanding, but being round one, it's like, yeah, and, and, and, and his upside is, his ceiling is certainly higher, but understanding that the things that allows him to make some of those saves are the same things that mean there's a good chance, the dip is going to be lower than McElheny as worse.

And, um, you know, and I pick McEl, I pick Marazick as a bit of an example, um, because I did a consulting project on him. Um, actually can't say who for, but, um, when he came out of his Detroit, his first year in Detroit where he took over for Howard,

I was asked to take a real deep dive and look at his game in terms of sustainability and areas that needed to improve. And, you know, not to, like, I don't know if you have a back patting machine here now, but whole, like, everything sort of, like, the things he was getting away with and excelling at were not going to be sustainable.

And it was clear as day, the lack of rotation and the movement, the excessive depth and the reliance on athleticism. Like, great to have it. But if you put yourself in a situation where you need it constantly, where you're dialing 911 all the time and doing goalie 911, chances are, you know, it might ring a couple times next time. They don't pick up right away and you're getting burned. Like there were just so many things in his game that were clearly not going to be sustainable

and consistent. and some of them have gotten better over time. I think having Mike Bales in Carolina has probably helped him a lot. I don't know how much of that message he was getting in the early years in Detroit about the need to change some of these things. Part of that is, hey, like when Babcock was there, aggression, absolutely. Wanted his goalies well out of the blue ice. And Nick Lidd's from Guard in your back door, you're okay, right?

But, you know, there are reasons. There are guys that burn bright and burnout, and a lot of the times, you can, if you really do the homework, you'll see that it's, that it's coming. Yeah. Well, I think we're seeing that with like a guy like Jonathan Quick, now I know he's kind of getting up there in age, but it's like for years there with that King's team that was so stingy defensively and especially he was doing all that stuff around the net to make life easier for him.

It's a lot easier to get away with sliding out of the crease. Why, aggression for him. Sometimes it wasn't even just sliding out of it. Like, it wasn't, like he wasn't all over the place out of control. Yeah. He was super aggressive. Yeah. because yeah he could be right there was probably someone behind him to probably

yeah and he's backed up he's backed up significantly and is like he's nowhere near as aggressive as he used to be look at detroit i mean i mentioned the morassick like jimmy howard for all the talk of jonathan quick jimmy howard used to be the most aggressive goalie in the n hl now he didn't fly all over the place like jonathan quick but positionally you go back and look especially towards the end of babcock's time there when nick listern was still sort of running down his career there like you'd have players come down off the rush and jimmy's jimmy was like so far out of his crease. It was like, sometimes I couldn't believe what I was watching. Like he was hands down if you did the measurements, the most aggressive goal in the NHL. Great skater though.

Yeah. And with that system, he was able to sort of pick his spots. And yet that same thing cost him badly for a couple of years. And it wasn't until he had a Newton. Again, new voices, new coach come in, back him up, back him back him up positionally. And he was really, he used to play really low and wide in his stance. he got a little more up right he got his hands out in front of him a little better and all of a sudden playing deep for him it's like holy crap we've had this conversation he's like i believe how much time i had yeah you watch him now the strength of his game is patience on his skates because he's not five feet away from a shooter coming down the wing he's back you know not he's not on his goal line he's not hendr conquest but he's back in a contained position he's able to see that puck longer hendricks talks about this too about seeing that puck longer through the release and being able to be more patient before he reacts and then that then when he does spill loose change, it's a shorter recovery period. Or if that play does go laterally on him, it's a shorter distance to recover. So constant evolution, and he's a great example of having to change with the game and having, to me, having success with it.

To me, I know the Red Wings are not a great team, but that's a steal four million for him plus bonuses. Yeah. Like, he could have helped. I know the ask was high because the intention was to always stay there. Right. He wants to be there. When I look at the teams that have playoff questions, I would have had Jimmy Howard as my answer. Sorry, San Jose.

I mean, that's something I was looking at. Yeah, I'd love to see the, I don't know if anyone's ever done it or considered it, but maybe with the clear site analytics data, like to see the shot profile of what Jonathan Quick was facing in 2012 versus 2019. I'd love to see the difference in what's going on in front of them because I did notice, like, when I was looking in my research for today, he's like, I think he's the worst goalie in terms of goals saved above average. I think he's like, it says that he's cost the kings, like 31 goals or something extra

above league average goalie. And I don't doubt it. But like at the same time, I'd love to see, like, beyond his own performance, what's going on to result in that big of a discrepancy this quickly. He's getting Willie Deed right now. Yeah, yeah, there's a lot going on with the Kings. Not of it good.

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seek geek supporting our show today so go and support them because you also support us remember that's promo code pdo for $10 off your first seekie purchase now let's get back to the kevin woodley interview all right let's get into the uh the vesna discussion so do you do you think that um actually no here's the first first question because something i was having difficulty with when i was compiling my sort of theoretical list is a lot of the top guys with the best numbers don't have the conventional number one quote unquote workload, especially in terms of appearances. And give me some examples. Well, so, like, Ben Bishop is a name that I keep coming back to because his numbers, both superficial and the deeper ones, like he's top three goalie in pretty much any way you slice it. Now, the thing that I bump into is he's only started, I have it in front of me back here a chart, he's only played in 45 games.

Yeah, that's flower last year too, right? Anton Houdobin has this pretty much identical numbers to him. And there's a lot of that this year. Take a look at it. Like Tuka Rice and Yarlalak. And I think actually when I looked at, again, CSA numbers at the end of February had Halak top three. And for all I know, Tuka could have been six, but he wasn't on the list.

He wasn't in that top five. Halak was. What are the other one? I mean, obviously, the Islanders are the example. A lot of people like to point to with Grice and Lainer. Both guys that struggled behind clearly worse defense. I mean, the Islanders last year. to the Islanders this year.

When you, they are the ultimate example. I always say this in radio interviews and stuff. Like, goaltending never. This is my catchphrase for, understand that it's not always just about the goaltending. Goaltending never exists in a vacuum, right? It is largely a function of team play. And Grice Lainer last year versus Grice Lainer this year.

Yeah. Well, look at a black last year on the islanders and now on being the Bruins. Yeah. The Islanders last year, I don't even want to say train wreck because, like, they just didn't give up. rats ass about defense. They were, it was like an all-star game.

And it was fun because they had horses that could go at the other end and they could outscore some of these things and they played it wide open and nobody cared about defense at eye. Like they baited into that game and it was entertaining, but it wasn't conducive to good goal-tending.

And I remember I was actually on the ice had a camp working with Thomas this summer and one of the coaches picked a drill where you come down, it was a progressive drill, but basically, player comes down the wing and then does a little dead angle pass, circles in the corner,

and then pops it out, a little pop pass into the middle. And it's a one T right in the middle of the ice, right? And which is not a situation. Like, as we're doing this drill, one of the other goalie coaches, the NHL goalie coaches is I think we got stats that say you will at the most see one of these shots every second game in the NHL.

Like this shot doesn't happen. And here we had three NHL goalies. with NHL shooters too like this isn't like your cousin Fred taking shots on you know this is Justin Shultz Andrew Ladd these are guys who can fire the puck and they're teeing it up from you know the front T's right from the hash marks

and we're going through this and they're talking about like yeah you see this once every two you know once every second game and these guys are seeing it like over and over and over again and I'm like this real I don't know sure this makes sense guys and you are and not you are sorry Thomas says, oh, this is like, this is just like a regular game with the Islanders. They used to see like 50. Yeah. Like if they had games, you know, everybody grades them differently, but they had games, a good night of scoring chances for most teams was 10 to 10 to 12 in that range of quality

scoring chances. He told me they had games where they got 25 and 30 scoring chances last year. I believe it. I watched a lot of those games. Yeah. I mean, they were, they were an amazing team to watch just because it was a free-for-all, but it reminded me a bit of the Patrick Wafts, especially towards the end there where people would make the R-EWR. arguments, it's like, oh, this team hasn't invested in a lot of resources in their defensemen. Obviously, look at some of the names. Obviously, they're going to be bad at defense. And it's like, no, this is like, seems like a systemic thing of like either there's no plan or there is a plan when guys aren't executing it. Like, it's just a free for all of guys just kind of roaming around

a defensive zone, shooting the gap. Like, it's like, I don't know what's going on. Exactly. And eventually, eventually the goalie doesn't know what's going on. And to me, it's cumulative. You can survive that in the short time. Take a look at Edmonton, right? Like, guys will come in and be okay in the beginning. But like, when you, when you, give up that seam pass on the power play to the back door, when you give up the, you know, the pass gets through on the odd man rush, you know, seven, eight, nine out of ten times, eventually as a goalie, like your job is to stick with the shooter, your job is to not cheat, your job is to, you know, sort of focus on, I mean, you've got to be aware of everything,

but your job is to focus on the guy with the puck before you worry about the guy who doesn't have it. You're aware he's there, but you're not cheating to him. Yeah. But that pass gets through, like I said, over and over again, eventually you start leaning. And as soon as you start leaning in this league, you're done. I point to Steve Mason as an example in Columbus. Steve had actually made some changes in his game that I thought were going to be conducive to success elsewhere. And he really took off when he got to Philadelphia because Jeff Reese took those changes, but then also simplified things positionally. He was playing a bit more of a complicated system personally in Columbus. And I'm not sure Steve processed the game in

the same way as he was being asked to, and so he struggled with, and once research sort of simplified his positional approach, and he wasn't thinking about all these things, he was great. And I remember asking him, like, but I saw these signs, and he agreed that he took these steps in Columbus. But he also said it would never have worked. Never would it have worked in Columbus, because the trust was so broken between him and his defensemen and vice versa. He didn't trust them to do their job, so he cheated. They didn't trust him to do it. They were, not that they, I should, I just, say they didn't, those weren't the words he used, wasn't that they didn't trust him to do their job. They were trying to help him. And pretty soon everybody's trying to do extra for somebody else and

nobody's doing their own thing. Once that snowball starts rolling downhill, man, it's tough to make it stop. And I thought the Mason was a really good example of that Columbus to Philadelphia. And, you know, I think there's been a countless numbers in Edmonton where it's just that, train wreck defensively. That's really hard to reel. And that's why Grice and the Islanders have in the season, And, you know, again, a new voice probably lets them all reset, but that's pretty impressive to go from where they were last year to where they are this year. And that's the thing. That's ultimately, like, it's really tough to separate.

Like, it's a great story, but in terms of, this is an individual award for the best goalie in the league, technically. And it's like, when you have those situations with Bishop and Houdobin are great. So I look at the guys that are separated. I look at where I, like, maybe I shouldn't, but I look where the backup is. Yeah. And if he's 30 points below and that guy's, you know, I look at Freddie Anderson versus Garrett Sparks. And Sparks is in a tough spot because he doesn't get a lot of, he doesn't, it's, it's, it's, yeah. That's a tough job. McElhenney posting a 9-34 starting once every 12 days last year.

Right. Was, man, mentally tough. So, but I do look at that. I look at the difference. I look at Price Nemi. I look, you know, I look at those things. Interesting in Tampa Bay, though, like, I haven't looked, I don't have the numbers in front of me. What's the difference between Louis de Ming?

Who's actually... Well, he was winning a lot of games, but I think, like, the actual performance is probably, you know. Maybe not as dramatic as some of these other cases, but, like, Yeah, it's tough. And I think that's why I want to see how this final week of the season goes. But I'm like really talking myself into Darcy Kemper being a top three Vezna finalist, which is like a mind-blowing thing to have said even as recently as a couple weeks ago. Because we don't think of him as a top three talent, do we?

But maybe that's not fair. Well, okay, well, this is the issue, Kevin. So I think like this is more of a descriptive award than a predictive one, right? Like I would not put any amount of money if I was a betting man, Art and Darcy Kemper ever, I think this is by far going to be the best season he's ever going to have. I'd be very surprised if he replicated this in Arizona or elsewhere. Well, okay, so here's in this, I know we're talking about it. But let's jump off on that a little bit because I read a story by Alex Pruitt.

Podcast, Alex Pruitt. Yeah, Sports Illustrated. I hate Alex Pruitt. He's so good at his job. I know. Like, I mean, as a guy who's like, as a writer, I know what I am. I'm an A plus B equals C hack. But he's also one of those guys that somehow gets players to like,

he gets this access, which I'm like, I don't even understand. Because he's, because he knows how to get players. Like, he's, he's just so good at his job that I hate him for it, but I love reading his stuff. And the quote he had on a story on Darcy Kemper really caught my attention recently.

And I'm pretty sure it was a direct quote from, from John Chica. And it basically said that they had looked at Darcy Kemper's numbers in L.A. No, he didn't give us what numbers. But they had broken down sort of his strength, statistically. And I would imagine, you know,

again, I don't have it in front of me, but I think it was pretty much statistically, but usually you marry you can marry that to style as well. There's usually at least some blend. When I see a number that is extreme one way or the other, and then I look at the tape, it's not, it's,

there's usually a correlation between something the goal he's doing. But anyways, they, they looked at it statistically, but in terms of the situations he performed best in and saw a match between the types of chances they gave up. And he said this in the story, and I was like, like this shouldn't be an analytics revolution to say this.

Like this shouldn't be, but that's the first time I've ever heard anybody say it. And I've always felt like, you know, and I've had this conversation with lots of goalies and lots of going. Like to use a golf term, there are horses for courses, right? There are, is that, I know it's a golf term. I guess it sounded really good. It's an equestrian term, but it's typically, okay,

if you use an equestrian term typically applied to golf, there are fits between style and system, strengths and system. And to me, it's absurd. And I'm guessing others do it. But that was the first reference I had seen to a team taking a look and seeing, does our style and the chances we give up, do they match the types of chances this guy succeeds against? If you're going to be an odd man rush team,

maybe Roberto Luongo isn't your goaltender. If you're going to keep it to the end, zone and limit the odd man rushes, Lewis as good as anyone. You know, like those types of things, right? And that's nothing against him, first ballot Hall of Famer. Yeah.

But his strengths are. The strengths and weaknesses, just like with skaters. Yeah, position to position within the zone. You don't go and get a guy who isn't a great skater and put him out behind a rush team, like say Eddie Lack and play him

in Carolina and ask him to be a skating goalie who comes out early and plays with backwards flow. Take two looks at his strengths and weaknesses. And those weren't his. his strengths. Like skating wasn't a strength, don't ask him to be a skating goaltender. Don't get an end zone goaltender and ask him to defend a whole bunch of two-on-ones. The game's not

perfect. You never are going to be able to dictate exactly the types of chances you give up. The other team plays a role in that. But certainly you should know what style you're trying to play and what you're trying to do, and you should be able to match that as Arizona appears to have done with Kemper to the strengths of the goaltenders you pursue. Yeah. And that, you know, seeing that quote and then seeing the success he has, I'd love to peel back the layers on that a little bit and see exactly where those, you know, and hopefully if they make the playoffs,

I'll get to look at the 100 goals and start to at least apply an eye test to what I think might be those strengths and weaknesses. Well, and he's basically having the season, like I think the biggest anti-Ranta optimists were hoping that he would have this year. So that's why it's like very interesting for that anecdote to be like they applied whatever they were,

whatever skater group they had and we're expecting anti-Ranta to be in that spot, they like basically are just applying Darcy Kemper to that and getting similar results. And I think like he had 58 starts the last three years combined. And then this year he's going to pretty much match that, right? So that's, I think that's part of him. I was going to ask you what the games played before we consider him for top three. He's at 53 right now.

I believe they have three left. And I imagine he's going to play all of them. So he's going to wind up pretty much matching that. And I mean, especially lately, like I think there was like one or two Calvin Picard games in there. But it's pretty much been him all the way through. And I think since the All Star break, he's been like a 935, say a percentage goalie.

So he's on this ridiculous run and I don't, I don't think just because he's a 28 or 29 year old who's never done this before and doesn't look as sexy as

Andre Vasilowski is stopping the puck. In terms of this award, I don't think that should necessarily matter or preclude him from being considered for it, right? So when I say I think he's going to worthy of being a top three

Vesna guy, that doesn't mean the next year I'm going to project. Yeah, it doesn't mean you're saying he's one of the top goalies in the world. I just think this year based on what we've seen and what he's meant

to this team. and like the fact that they're winning all these games with viny hannistroza as their leading score or whatever brad richardson after one four-go game like it's remarkable and it's i guess it's a testament to him and also the coyotes for identifying this because i don't think anyone's thought is coming i imagine even if you gave john shike a truth serum i imagine he also in his wildest dreams didn't expect rcy kempher to have this type of a run in him and it's a good on dark good guy too like uh it's for a different type of podcast for another day but he has one of the best why I started wearing multiple cup stories in the history of hockey. I'll just leave everyone cringing at that thought.

So, yeah, so I have, in terms of my top three, I had Vasilevsky Anderson Kemper. Yeah, that's, I mean, that's not bad again without having the numbers right in front of me. I should have brought a whole bunch of homework and really pretended like I was prepared here. I have Vasilevsky near the top of that list. I had Freddie Anderson up there right with him. the bottom's kind of falling out here the last couple of weeks. It has, yeah. Enough that, you know, like statistically, he kind of bumped out of that tier.

I do think he's a guy. Interestingly enough, though, that even through the end of February, when I had him, like, I had him on top of my list with, I had him and Vasselowski won two. Again, based anecdotally on what I saw in terms of their style of play. But when I got the CSA numbers for the end of February, he wasn't top five. And there's Kerry going neck and neck side by side with Andre Vasselette.

and I don't know what carry, at the end of the day, none of this matters because the GMs just vote for wins anyways. Of course. Shout out to Tukaask in 2014 and not Semyon Varlamov. Which who should have been, I love Tuka, but that was Varlamov's Vezna to win. There's a couple of Roberto Luongo years in there that he should have multiple Veznas on his trophy case. But I had Anderson up there and then when I saw the CSA numbers, not even top five, right? So when I saw those numbers at the end of February, I had carry on my list.

For him to be there, you know, 31 goals saved above average based on all those sort of measurements of shot quality, especially after the slow start he had it in Montreal. I know it's rare that a guy gets a Vezna when he doesn't make the playoffs. I don't think it matters because Vasselowski probably gets it anyways, but I'd have him in my top three. I had Freddie there with him, and I don't know if he drops out over the first. the past couple of weeks or not. Maybe Bishop has done enough for play.

I think you got to be, would you say Bishop was at 45? Bishop's at 45 and Hood opens 39 in terms of the game's played. You know, I don't think that's enough for, for Bish. But maybe it'll change because the game is, it does feel like it's headed that way. We're going to see much more. And maybe not 50-50 splits, but 60-40. Like, I think, I mean, I was just looking at it. One of the pros that I had for Price and Anderson was that they're like two of the few guys

who are going to be 60-plus games this year. Right. And I'm not necessarily like. I mean, that's great in the fact that they've been able to hold up, especially with the workload and the quality and quantity of shots in front of them, should be a plus in their, in their pros and cons of their candidacy. But I don't know how much we should dock a guy like Bishop for this,

because that does seem like it's like the way the league is headed, and it might not necessarily be the indictment against him. Yeah, and not even holding against him, I just think more threshold. Yeah. You know, like, like again, Flurry last year, his adjusted numbers. The only guy better than him was Ranta from just above, above, above expected say percentage again the proprietary stuff not the public stuff and but you just didn't have

enough starts yeah you know and so uh florrie is a guy actually until i would have had him in this conversation even though he was raw numbers until he got hurt just because there are two things that gms love one is wins the second one is history and storyline yeah like it matters right like take a look at how long murder got it when there were other guys you know like they're just went on a run there where there's a couple years i would argue luongo deserved it ahead of them biased because I've gotten to know him over the years, but even before that relationship began, I would have had him above.

Well, and it feels like from a story, I mean, Abaselowski's going to win this. We're talking about more so, like, who should or who should be on the list, because he's got the wins, but he's also, like, the best team component, and it seems like they might have,

like, a clean sweep of those awards with Cooper and Kutcherob, and it's deserved. Well, Hay and Gibson's another name that probably just, you know, in terms of deserve, probably deserves to be, you know, I would argue not at the top,

but in this conversation as well. Well, at least the work with out of all these guys, for sure. I mean, look at the start of the year when under Randy Carl, they were still like on the fringes of the playoff race, even though they had all these injuries. And it was mostly just because he was just out of his mind. And then as soon as he got injured a bit and fell back down to like regular mere mortal status, not even being bad, they just started losing everything because there was nothing to fall back on. Well, and but I also, but in the same vein when they were both going, when they were both, before they both got injured, even during Gibson's run there,

Miller was also amazing. Miller was posting similar numbers. Right. So again, it's, it's, you know, I'm I don't know. I'm talking a lot and not really coming up with an answer here, but I do believe you wait the comparative numbers between the starter and his backup. You know, and there have been times where probably I haven't given Gibson enough credit because I'm watching Ryan Miller, who, by the way, is still capable of playing at an elite level when he's healthy. I'm watching him post the same numbers through the first half of the season, right? Be right up there with John Gibson. And it's like, I know I should look at the advanced stuff and the more detailed stuff. and be able to differentiate, but when I look at the both of them posting similar numbers, it's not fair to either one,

but you start to ask, okay, well, how much of this is, how much of this is what's going on in front of them? Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, Vasilevsky, also what he has going for him is it does feel like it's a bit of like a coronation, just because, like, he's so clearly, like, the next, quote-unquote guy, right? Like, the other aspect of this, too,

that we, like, we don't, and this isn't a part of the Vesna conversation, but this is in terms of judging performance. I remember when Kipper was tearing it up with Calgary two years in a row I went through pretty much entire league and asked guys what would you rather have a team that is loose defensively but scores or a team that is you know Darrell Sutter tight as he was during that era with Calgary but can't score to save their lives right and they all said give me the run support because the pressure between the ears of knowing they're probably not going to put a puck between the pipes at the other end can be immense and going into a game

knowing one mistake is one mistake too many adds a lot. So there's something to be said. Like I am not diminishing what Vasilevsky is as a goaltender, but there's something to be said with going in with three or four goals a game and run support. Right. And knowing that that's there, it allows you to play a little more free,

a little loose. And it'll be interesting to see if things tighten up in the playoffs, whether that performance changes at all. My hunch is it won't. He certainly passes the eye test. Like, honestly, looks sometimes like he's like, I don't know, I don't know this is a fair thing to say, but it looks like he's, like, bored a little bit.

like he like tries to make saves that probably aren't advisable just like I remember he had a couple of those like behind the back saves where he like turned his head and just like it looks like he's just like he's so like physically dominant that it seems like and he knows that even if he does give up a goal tempo will probably go back and score two within a couple minutes that he can try out some of this stuff but it seems like he like the next level for him is like pushing himself to try and make these remarkable saves there's um yeah some of those remarkable saves are like his ability to make them is like you tip your hat and you're just like, wow, holy crap. Like, he's bendy.

Yeah. And he's flexible and he's explosive and he's athletic. And I remember talking to the coaches that worked with him in Ottawa that first year. Remember he came into the playoffs? Because Bishop got hurt. And so I did a little research. And turns out he'd been working with a couple of coaches I know in Ottawa for a couple summers in a row. And what they talked about was his ability to initiate power in movement at the end range of flexibility.

In other words, he's not just initiating power when he originally loads that muscle. like he's able to he's able to be sort of stretched out for lack of a better term and just have a little bit left in that sort of muscle range and still generate power out of it. So he's never sort of he's always got access to edges and an ability to create power no matter how out of it or stretched out he looks. And that's a remarkable skill and he works hard on his balance and his and all these elements. And yet there are still times when I watch that explosiveness and it's needless. Like I'm a guy who Every time I hear an announcer say The goalie had no chance on that

I'm rewinding it And I want to say I look back three or four touches Because usually Of course there are situations Where he just didn't have a chance But more often than not He didn't give himself a chance If you really break it down

And usually when you rewind it You go back a few touches And you can see where they'll get behind in a sequence Or they make a bad read And that's why they end up in that position He has the ability to recover that Remarkably and yet there are also inefficiencies in his game that,

you know, the ability to turn that glove behind his back and make that save is like, wow, and we all marvel at the highlights. But if he's got better rotation in his push, then he's squared up as he's moving that direction, and that blocker's right there, and you're not having to contort yourself like some type of crazy gymnast to make that save.

You can make that save a lot easier. And of course, it's not as sexy, but it's a hell of a lot more repeatable. And so when you see him get, the word we use is counter rotation. When you see that much counter rotation in his movement where the legs are going one way and the body's going the other way that puts him in a position where he has to flip that glove around behind his back, his ability to do it is noteworthy.

The need to do it at times can be a bit of a question mark. Well, yeah, especially as, I mean, he's so young right now that like it can kind of go either way, right? Like if you learn some of that stuff or improves a bit of that technique, he could become even scarier. But then potentially if he doesn't. once that athleticism slips a little bit, obviously your margin for air decreases.

Or you become less bendy as you get old. Let me tell you that's the absolute truth. No, although with him, like, they call him Big Cat for a reason. Yeah. Like, dude, he's, I think a lot of people get obsessed with height with goaltenders. The word I've learned over the years working with Ian Clark, who's now back here in Vancouver, which is nice for me because he's one of the best in the game and he's right in my backyard again.

That's how I got started in goaltending, is length. Like, you can have guys who are sure. super tall. And I think there's an element of this with Koskenen where he's super tall. But like he doesn't have extension. He doesn't have length. He doesn't have reach with that height. He's got a wide butterfly. But he's not able to sort of extend his body out over top of that without sort of losing balance. Vasaleski's length is off the charts. The ability to extend and stay over top of his knees and be in control. That reach combined with that control and that flexibility is, and that's kind of what I mean by length. It's off the charts. And he's a big,

boy. Have there been any goalie performances this year that have surprised you other than obviously Kemper and maybe some of the... I think Bittington's probably a name that, you know, I'd be lying if I said I saw that coming. And yet I think, again, we get back to goaltending not existing in a vacuum. There were clearly with the coaching changes, things improved in front of the goaltenders. The environment got better and he came in at a time behind a team where the environment was more conducive to better goaltending results. And yet, that doesn't mean he's going to happen. them and for a team that was looking to find confidence in somebody he's clearly provided it. Like that's a real thing, right? Like as much as it might be hard to measure when a goalie

plays well, Hellebuck and the Jets last year. You know, there is an interesting case. Yeah. You know, CSA numbers at him 13th in the NHL. Yeah. And yet if you're the Jets, you had to pay him because everyone in the room believe he was a guy, right? Like that was, but 37 sheets over six years for a guy who was 13th and adjusted save percentage. Like that told you that as soon as teams move the puck ladder, if the Jets weren't able to defend at the same level, if teams started moving the puck laterally more than they did last year, that he might see a slippage.

And I think you've seen some of that. It's not against him. Like, you can, if you come at me in a straight line, a guy like Hellebuck, he'll take that all day. But if you make him move laterally, again, it's not that it's a weakness, but that's playing away from his strength. And that's where we talk about, you know,

the need for measuring pre-shot. movement. Location without pre-shot movement, the closer it gets to me, the more advantage I gain as a goaltender. And today's goaltenders understand that especially this next generation, Carter Hart does not move out of the way like a lot of old school goalies did. The closer you get to him, he understands that the more of the net he's taking up in relationship to the puck.

Because you're getting closer and he's gaining an angle. So unless you can open him up or make him move side to side or move the puck to somebody else side to side, you know, you come at these guys in straight lines these days and they see that as an advantage. So we've talked about a couple concepts of, like, you know, teams with, like, all the data science and sports science about, like, limiting workload, especially in the regular season,

going towards more, about 50-50 split for goalies. We talked about the coyotes, identifying a certain playing style and going after Darcy Kemper for that. We never really talk about this stuff with goaltending. We talk a lot about, like, forwards and skaters and how the league's getting younger and faster

and more skilled all the time. Do you think we're going to see, that translate to the goalie level as well where teams are going to become more willing to trot young goalies out there and give them more responsibility on their plate right away? Or do you think? Because it does feel like,

and that's been a bit of a bit of a grievance of mine, especially like at the start of the year this year with Philly, you can make the argument that Carter Hart wasn't ready physically and his numbers in the H.L weren't great. But their goaltending was such a mess. I was like, I find it hard to believe that even if he struggles right out of the gate, that he won't ultimately be the best option they have,

regardless of how young and inexperienced he is. Do you think we're going to see teams embrace that a bit more? Do you think it's going to be something that's going to be slower to adapt and it's going to be still more so just for skaters? I think it's still probably going to be case by case. I'd like to see more of it. I think we've seen young goalies come up and prove that, you know, I mean, look at Soros.

I know there was an apprenticeship there and some back and forth within the AHL last year. What I do like as a trend is as teams are starting to realize that just default leaving. a guy in the American Hockey League isn't a great thing. I like the teams that have brought in young goalies, even though they want them to be playing. We saw this with Soros.

We saw it with Corpus Salo last year. We saw it a little bit with Georgiev this year, where they get them in the NHL as the backup early enough that they don't need to clear waiver, so they can still go down to the American League. Like, if I've got a game, a Saturday game, and my HAL team's playing three and three, and I know my number one guy is there for the Saturday,

I call up my number three. I send down my young backup and I get him two starts on the Friday and Sunday and you keep him in that game rhythm but then he's around the team, he's practicing with the team, he's working with the NHL goal coach

on a day-to-day basis. He's effectively your backup. Yep. But you're still allowing him to play more than he would if he was just your backup in the NHL. I love that trend. I'd like to see more teams invest more time in younger goaltenders.

And I think we're seeing that. There's still, you know, there's still always going to be a little bit of a hesitancy to go all in. The idea that goalies take longer to mature, I think at times is just total horse crap.

Some of them do. Like I talked to the coaches that Bennington works with in the offseason and it sort of took him a while to figure out what it took to be a pro. You know, we see countless stories. He's not one on the weightless side, but how many times do we used to see guys

that, like, they go from their second to third year in the NHL and they'd be like, oh, yeah, it lost like 20 pounds. And it's like, how did you play in the NHL 20 pounds heavy, man? I mean that guys like Andre Pavlik and stuff. Yeah.

That's not Bennington's case. I don't want to pretend I'm talking about the same thing there. But he did learn some lessons in terms of what it took to be a pro. I think sometimes it takes these goalies, sometimes different teams, sometimes different coaches in the off season. Sometimes a team makes a switch in their coaching staff, goalie coaching-wise in the American League or the NHL level.

And sometimes it takes them a while to sort of find that one thing that clicks with them. Right. and that can be one of the difference makers. A guy like Hart, like Hart's foundation is set, right? Like, I'm not worried about him between the ears. I'm not worried that he would have been beat up by kind of crappy Philly team early.

Guy's been working with John Stevenson, who's most famous for his work with Brayden Holby mental coach since he was 12 years old. Right. Like Carter understands, Carter's on top of some of the modern tracking sort of techniques and has been for a long time. He's a guy I've seen,

I was on the ice as a consultant and video coach with, hockey Canada two summers ago. Like, he knows what his foundation is. And if anything, the biggest thing for him at the NHL level is not having some of the coaches that aren't as up to date on it, seeing that and thinking it looks slow and figuring he has to be faster. Like people talk about Kerry Price playing in a speed bubble.

Carter does too. But there's an efficiency that allows him to do it. So not chasing him away from that efficiency. I don't, you know, he would have been ready. You're right at the beginning of the year. I guess at the end of the day, not every goal he's there. Right. But I'm happy that we're seeing.

more of them at a younger age being given a chance. And yet at the same time, I still want Roberto Llewong to be back with the Florida Panthers next year at age 40. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it does feel like we're, I mean, we're getting there. But it does feel like there's a bit of a changing in the guard, especially some of these older goalies have had deterioration in performance this year

and some young guys are coming up. I mean, Cal Peterson had success. Mackenzie Blackwood had success. Like, you know, on that, I think Thatcher Demko watched those things, and Him or is his people, you know, made it, you know, you see that and you're like, I can do this too, right? And so there was a push to get him up here in Vancouver after seeing that success, Hart, Blackwood, you know, Cal Peterson.

But at the same time, you got to create spots. And that's why, to me, like, you look at the Kings, like, Cal Peterson was great. Yeah, they got no spot for him. Yeah, I mean, if you could, I think it's hard to argue that like 40 games of Jack Campbell and 40 games of Cal Peterson would probably be better off at this point than giving 60 games to Jonathan Quick, but they're sort of box in contractually. and from a business perspective and marketing, I'm sure. And that's why this is going to be a fascinating summer.

Because to me, like we got some pretty big names this summer. I know it's not, you know, there's just, I mean, Bob obviously tops it. Varlamov's right behind him as a guy with high upside. Would you give Bob six years if you were a gym? Oh, I like Bob's game. He's been amazing the past couple weeks, but obviously,

I mean, just based on his age and, and. Yeah, I worry less about his age. I know a lot of people, you know, people pointed to his past injury history, but frankly, I think there's an ignorance to, uh, when you do that to the situation, Bob trained wrong for a couple summers. Bob put on a lot of, I remember the year after he figured it out walking to the locker room and was like, what the hell happened to you? Like different, build completely different. I was like, like he was so skinny compared it before him. Like he was pretty muscle bound before. Right.

And I was just like, I was shocked. Nobody had reported on it yet, right? They talked about him changing his off season, but like, I'm like, how is this not everywhere? Like this guy, like physically I didn't recognize him. Like I did like, I was like, holy crap, is that Bob? And he lost 19 pounds of muscle. Like, you know how hard that is to do? Like, almost all of it was muscle, which also showed you how much extra he was carrying. And obviously it wasn't the right way.

If you look at him since making that change, we're talking like a game here. Like he hasn't missed significant time with the groin injuries. that plagued him. When he used to have the groin injuries, I worry so often we see groin, as same with Schneider, right? Growing, growing, growing. I'm like, it's going to be his hip. And it's his hip, right? They're so intertwined with Bob it wasn't. It was just really, you know, some misguided approach to some off-season training, got too big, incredibly strong. But needlessly, needlessly a little big, especially, you know, lower body as well. Like you could see it. And now he's leaned out. He's still ripped.

Like he's a beast, but in a much better, well, much more. sustainable way. So I don't worry about his health. Yeah, stop stalling. I answer the question. I give him six, so I don't know if I give him seven or eight. Like that's the thing, right? And six even scares me, to be honest. I think he's one of the best goalies in the world, but six scares me, not because of the injury history. Especially at the dollar figure it'll probably be at. I wouldn't give goal. Like, they're going to take away my, like, we're going to have to

delete this because they're going to take away my goalie union card. I wouldn't get, would you give goalie's turn? Like, I would shy away from term every time. Look at the change in the game in the last two seasons. man, if you can't move laterally, you can't play in this league right now. And if you're going to tie yourself in, like that could change in two years. The way the game has played changes so fast,

how it affects what succeeds in goaltending, changes with it. And so if you're locking into guys long term, there are very few Hendrik Lundquist and Roberto Luongo's in the world, Kerry Price, that can sustain a level of play for as long as those guys,

have, which brings us back to our first question, what would you rather have? And to me, it's consistency. But man, with everything changing around and with more of these young kids coming up, I'd be nervous about locking into term. And yet, and that's why I think it's going to be a fascinating summer. I'm not sure the figures and the term that I think a lot of goalies would like to see are going to be tossed around this year. It wouldn't be if I was a GM. Yeah. I think you can find a build goaltending if you have a good staff. I agree with that. I definitely agree with that. Okay, let's wrap things up and let's talk a little bit about your playoff project. And I know you're not fully done with it yet.

But you see, I think my bags under my eyes are about three. So it means about half done. And it's just a fun little project where for the playoff previews at NHL.com, we take a look at the goalie matchups. And I originally did every goal that that goalie had given up that year and charted it and looked for trends and then looked for. eye test whether that trend matches anything in his game. I've gone down to just doing the last 100 goals for sanity sake,

because you get guys that are up there like 177 goals. You're just doubling your workload needlessly. Chances are the goals in March and February are more relevant than the ones in October, especially you see goalies make changes in their game. Teams tighten up systems-wise. It's not a perfect, like I'm not pretending it's a perfect answer. But I basically do it because it was an idea that the NHL support. ported. I give them a ton of credit for giving me enough compensation and time to do it the right way.

I mean, I could take a look at five games of film and say, oh, this is a trend and this goal he'd get, you know, like, and make up crap and basically talk out of my ass. I feel like looking at that many goals, because goals are the results, right? In a perfect world, I look at every shot. So if he gives up 41 on the glove side, I have that as a save percentage, not just how many goals he gives up. But, you know, in a perfect world, I'd have endless amount of time and or somebody else would be doing it. this for me. So it's more time management, but also, you know, frankly, it's what I was taught. I've been through the pre-scouts with a handful of goalie coaches. Some of the best in the business have walked me through what they look for, how they break it down, how they present it to their

teams. I don't quite go into that same depth. I have the information. There are times I sort of pull some punches because nobody wants the guy at NHL.com to be showing the rest of the world exactly how to exploit their goaltender. But for the most part, yeah, it's just an in-depth look at how you score on these guys typically and are there any tendencies you can look for? And it's kind of fun because inevitably there will be a handful of goals that go in in the first round on a guy that you identified as a trend and you see it and you sort of give yourself a little back pat for for sort of matching what the numbers say to what your eye tests say it says in terms of movement patterns, deficiencies, things that inevitably end up with costing the

puck ending up in the back of the net. Yeah. And we see this time of year, time and time again, And like, you know, there's sometimes all it takes is a hot goalie or a right matchup, and all of a sudden, a inferior team is beating a superior team. And you're like, what just happened here? Well, and hot goalies are one thing, but I'd be honestly, like, the goalie coach's job, I'm unlucky in that I've got to look at all 16, like in the detail with which these guys go over. Right. You can just focus on a one-up owner.

I'm not going to name names because people have started to be able to look it up. I know a goalie coach who two years ago in the first round had pre-reased. scouted a tendency, that I had missed, actually, to be honest, and never even thought of how would you exploit that, and exploited it for three goals, including, I believe, one overtime

winner and one late tying goal in like the first four games of the series. And the goalie on the other side had to make, you could see they consciously made an adjustment to this. And so you tell me the power of in a playoff series, being able to identify a tendency that creates it. I don't mean just like, oh, hey, like bar down, you know, goals that are going in.

I mean, like, throwing a puck in a certain spot that you would never think to do at any other time from a weird angle. And it creates three goals, either directly in or creates scrambles that lead to goals because the goalie isn't managing that well. Like, there's the value of an NHL pre-scout, and that's why these guys spend days breaking down the opposition goaltender. And sometimes it's little little tendencies where skate goes relative to the post, dead angle plays, people lament pucks going in from sharp angles. Dude,

sharp angle stuff is the hardest. You know that I saw a number recently, and I can't remember where I saw it, so I can't give the proper credit. Do you have a better chance of a puck going in from below the goal line than a clear shot from the point without any sight lines obstructed? Like below the goal line is tougher than the point. Yeah.

So value of point shots going down. So yeah, it's like this stuff matters, right? And these guys spent a ton of time on it. Vegas, Washington. Washington won a Stanley Cup. Their entire offensive plan in terms of the types of shots they emphasized was developed by their goaltending coach, Scott Murray, using some of the tools and some of the insights gained through Valakette's work

and ClearSight Analytics and slot line. And there were times in that Stanley Cup final against the Vegas Golden Knights where even I, having an idea what the plan was, could not believe the shots that Washington was passing up and passing out of an odd man rushes. You're like, how do you not shoot that? At the end of the series, I think they went 13 for 18 converting those lateral passes off the rush into backdoor opportunities.

If Vegas couldn't defend it, Flurry's depth was far too aggressive to recover from it. And it helps when he got guys like Ovechkin and Paxstra. Yeah, who's nets off on the other end of those passes. but, you know, like there's a tactic. There is a tendency that if you identify my chance with Flurry well outside of the blue, I'm coming in a straight line at him on a two-on-line. And yeah, I'm right down into the dots,

and that feels like a great scoring chance. But that chance goes up four, four, five-fold, if I get that pass across the ice to the guy at the other end, because Flurie's this far out and he's as fast as he is and one of the fastest is in the game, then I need to not take this shot because I know if I only complete two of these passes that still has a higher percentage than if I shoot all four, for example, from that spot. And those are the type of things that are going into a combination of the math

and the analytics and the eye test of why it works and why we can keep making it work on a goaltender. And that's, I guess, what makes the lightning so scary is that they have that exact combination of- Oh, my God, that power play, like as a goaltender, I think I'd probably just like stand in the middle and that and wait for it to come to me. Like, they are just the well, and that's the problem. I lose sleep watching about like, Of all, like, trusting your defensemen and your penalty killers and cheating. And, like, a guy like Stephen Stamco's is typically such a one-shot sniper that you, like, have to cheat a little bit to get there in time.

But then if you cheat a little bit, Nikita Kutrov will just pick the corner on you himself. So it's like, all right. It makes me dizzy just thinking about it. All right, Kevin. So I recommend everyone go check out your work and see where certain goalies can be exploited and where others can. And hopefully we'll be able to get you back on. I'm excited we finally got to do this.

Perfect. Thanks, man. I really appreciate you both having me on the podcast and putting up with my endless rambling not just now but over the years and people can follow you at kevin is in goal yeah on twitter all right i highly recommend that and uh yeah we'll chat soon man perfect thanks video cast dmitri philipovic follow on twitter at dim philipovic and on sound cloud at soundcloud dot com slash hockey pdiocast