The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 289: Let Me Collect My Thoughts

Episode Date: April 15, 2019

Andrew Berkshire joins the show to discuss how the Islanders have masterfully bottled up the Penguins attack, how the Blue Jackets have shocked the hockey world, and how little wiggle room there is between St.Louis and Winnipeg in their heavyweight tilt out West. Islanders vs. Penguins (4:15) Blue Jackets vs. Lightning (34:00) Jets vs. Blues (58:30) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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and joining me as my good buddy Andrew Berkshire. Andrew, what's going on, man? Not much, just recovering from playoff hockey and all the shock to the system that the first round generates. Yeah, it's been a roller coaster ride. I guess we're like, what, four or five days in only? It feels like it's been a month of playoff hockey. It's been coming fast and furious,

and I've really been enjoying it. I think a couple of the home teams won yesterday to even this out, but I think home teams still so far this postseason have a sub-500 record, which is surprising. Like we know that home ice doesn't necessarily matter in hockey as much as maybe some other sports, but to see that is still quite a surprise. Yeah, it's been pretty nuts.

I feel like every year we're watching the first round and you're like, wow, I can't believe how great this is and how unpredictable everything is. But it is like every year there's something that surprises, right? But I feel like this year the matchups were less, or at least I was less confident in the matchups, like, picking a winner for most of the series than most years. Usually there's, like, you know, an underdog team that stands out that's, like, much better than their record and, you know, a division winner that's really weak. And you can be like, okay, well, this is going to be the upset.

But this year, like, you couldn't really pick who exactly was going to be the upset. And I think the one that's, you know, coming out as the most obvious now is the least obvious coming into the playoffs. Yeah. And we're going to get into that in depth in today's podcast. But you're right. I mean, obviously sort of the nature of the postseason with the seven game series lends itself to that. And it's it's kind of tough to adjust to it as someone who follows the league closely

through the full 82 game season because you're so used to kind of like pacing yourself and preaching patience and sample size and not letting, telling people not to get too carried away by small fluctuations here or there. and then come the postseason, you know, all it takes is a game or two, and all of a sudden it's either this team's the best team in the world or this team is going to, you know, lose and everything's horrible, and we should blow it up. And obviously when you have so little margin for error, it lends itself to that.

So it's kind of tough not to buy into it a little bit yourself. But at the same time, I don't, if you feel yourself kind of like trying to at least look at it from the other side of things and still stay a little patient or whether you're fully buying it to everything you're seeing as well. Yeah, it's a tough one because even teams that are one-in-one, specifically, Maple Leafs fans have gone from like, we got this series in the bag to like all hells raining down on them. And, you know, the rebuild was a waste of time.

And Matthews is a loser. And it's funny to see all the emotions from the outside, you know, when you don't have a stake in it to see how crazy things vary from game to game from period to period. Yeah. Okay. So I thought today you and I would focus on the two series that are both three, three love right now, but also that I think are probably the most surprising just from a, you know, it felt like the two teams that are down three nothing are kind of probably the two most most heavily favored teams heading into the postseason or the two kind of most chalk picks and in most people's brackets.

So I'll let you pick. Do you want to first deep dive lightning blue jackets or do you want to get into Penn Islanders? let's let's tea we'll tease the lightning blue jackets and save that because i feel like that's the bigger story and let's let's go in on the pens and the islanders i mean it doesn't really matter listen they've already got people's clicks they've already downloaded the podcast if they want to listen i mean that's great but if they don't that's that's okay too that's our prerogative no i let's do pens aisles so i've taken a lot of flack um over the past however many days from islanders fans because before the postseason started um my editor already is

SPN and Tim Kavanaugh asked me to help preview the postseason by ranking the forward groups of all 16 playoff teams and the defense groups of all 16 playoff teams. And I think it wouldn't be a surprise to most people that the Islanders were low on both those lists because despite the results and the overwhelmingly positive season they had, I felt like, you know, it was a bit of a mirage and people and the talent itself still wasn't as great as the actual overall results. And so I had the islanders really low on both lists, and their fans have taken great delight so far in pointing out how big of an idiot I am and how this team keeps getting overlooked and how, you know, it's everything. Basically, they're just relishing this moment and they deserve it, considering obviously I think at the start of the season, most of us were probably picking them to finish near the bottom or at the direct bottom of the Metro Division. And there weren't high expectations. and now it looks like they are potentially going to sweep a team that quite recently won back-to-back Stanley Cup.

So there's that. Yeah, it's pretty unexpected. I think you have to give the Islanders a lot of credit because I think they're making, you know, the best of their roster. I mean, how awesome is it as a story just to see Jordan Eberley, you know, rebound from that terrible playoffs he had in Edmonton that ended up getting him traded. Now he's scoring a goal game. And he's been arguably the Islander's MVP outside of Robin Lanner in this short set. series, but excuse me, I think that as great as the islanders have been, they've been good. I feel like we have to talk about how different the officiating has been in the playoffs

compared to the regular season and how much worse the NHL has been doing it, or how much less the NHL has been cracking down on interference over the last couple of years. Because I think as much as like the state of the game is actually quite good in my opinion, I feel like they've let more and more interference creep back into the game. And I do wonder what kind of goal scoring we would see in the NHL right now if they were actually calling things. Because you look at the last six, seven years, and it's six or seven of the lowest penalty calling years in the history of the game. It's lower than the dead puck era. They just don't call anything.

And you could argue that it's a slightly cleaner game than the late or early 2000. and I would agree, but not that much cleaner. And the rules have changed since then. They let a lot of stuff go. And I think the Islanders very clearly benefit from being allowed to hook and hold and interfere. So that's one thing that kind of makes me not super excited to watch them. They remind me a little bit of the senators from 2017. But at the same time, you have to really, like you look at their fan base

and every game that they've had in the last, like, second half of the season, it's been so raucous in there. And you can't help but kind of be on their side, even though they play kind of a boring style. Yeah, no, I talked about this on a recent podcast when I was looking at the Bruins Leaf series, and it's a similar story there where a team that might on paper be less skilled is clearly benefiting from, you know, kind of pushing the envelope a little bit as much as they can with obstruction away from the puck and slowing players down.

by technically illegal means and you know if this isn't anything new we see time and time again that in postseason hockey the referees are willing to let a lot more go and it leads to that sort of stuff and so more power to you but i think like let's actually focus on some of the positives here for them because there are many to choose from and when i was thinking about how um they've managed so far to bottle the pens up i think it does go beyond just you know it's very easy for us sometimes superficial analysis to go like, oh, look at the goalie. Robin Lennar is stopping 95% of the shots he's facing or whatever in these first three games. Whenever that happens and you have a hot goalie, clearly you're going to win and the defense is going to look great. But as good as he's

been and as he's good as he's been all year, I think what I've noticed in this postseason series is you're sort of seeing that Isles Forchick and really kind of feast on this penguin's blue line, which for years has been very suspect in terms of puck moving ability and actually having legitimate skill and I know they've had plenty of postseason success and won a Stanley Cup with Ron Hainesie as basically their number one defenseman but it's pretty clear that they're having a very difficult time getting going at five on five whenever they have to exit their own zone just because this Islander's for check and how tightly constructed they are and how well coached they are is always in the right place and the right time and it has this swarming defense that is preventing guys like

Crosby and Malkin from ever really having the benefit of time and space to get the puck with a full head of steam heading into the offensive zone and when you're playing from behind to begin with like that it's really difficult to generate any sort of sustainable offense and that makes life a lot easier on robin leonner and and even thomas grice back in the regular season yeah i feel like this was like an underrated thing uh over the season like everyone was focusing on lner and grice and i mean i remember last season when gryce and halak had those horrible seasons and there and a lot of people were saying like oh these guys look done they're terrible and it was like Goleys don't change that much year to year without like some really big intervention.

And like Halak's had a great year in Boston. Grice has had a great year on Long Island. Lenners had a great year. And, you know, Leonard's overcome some personal things. And that could partially explain his big jump. But you're right that the Islanders have become a fantastic defensive team after being a horrendous defensive team last year. I believe last year, I'm not sure I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'm pretty sure they give up more odd man rushes last year than anyone else in the NHL.

And this year they've given up the fewest. They just don't allow chances off the rush. It's crazy how well they are defending their own blue line, especially with guys who have a reputation for being a little bit of revolving doors there like Nick Letty. They've really managed to overcome, you know, roster weaknesses with structural change. And I think that's a huge amount of credit to Barry Trots who, you know, managed to do this same thing pretty much everywhere, but I think he had a lot more talent at his disposal in every other job, not to diminish the Islanders, but I think even the most hardcore Islanders fan would admit that they're not as talented as the Washington Capitals or some of the Nashville teams that Trots had. Right, that's the thing. So when I was, when I ranked Islanders defense as the 16th best group, it wasn't in, it wasn't ranking their defensive abilities in their offensive system. It was the individual talent there. And clearly, with the system in place and,

and how they're playing sort of it adds up to something special here defensively where they limit so much and they prevent the penguins a team like the penguins from really ever getting going and it's kind of similar to like you know i had the sharks really high on that list and obviously anyone in their right mind would take carlson and burns and even vlasic at whatever state he's at now and so on and so forth and they have so much much talent but you look at that much more loose system with the goaltending behind it and they give up so. so much more. So it's kind of like apples and oranges when you're comparing those two things. I think it's important to sort of differentiate the actual individual talent from the whole

and the system and the coaching staff. And sometimes it's really difficult for us to, it's easier to kind of focus on an individual player evaluation level because it's really tough sometimes to know how big of a role a coach is playing, how sort of what the system is and how well the players are executing it. But it's pretty clear when you compare last year's Islander's team to this one, you can sort of see that direct link in terms of, of what Barry Trots and everything they've brought in has accomplished for this team. Yeah, and a lot of it I think is like, you know, layers to your defense, whereas like Doug Waite, he was great for offense.

That's what he knew, obviously. And I feel like he was a pretty good defensive player in his heyday, but for whatever reason he couldn't really coach defense. There wasn't much structure there. But I feel like Barry Trots has some really good redundancies in his system where like if this fails, then these guys are in position to make up for it. And, you know, it's tough to go over every single thing because I know I'm not a coach. I don't know, like, how to phrase things correctly all the time.

But it's really impressive what they've been able to manufacture there. And it's strange that, you know, in the analytics world of always shooting for controlled entries, controlled exits, one of the things that's driven the success of the New York Islanders is shifting to dumping the puck in all the time. outside of Barzal, most of the Islanders just dump and chase four check teams into oblivion. And one of the big things that hurt them last year was when they were trying to get those controlled entries, they were giving up a lot of turnovers. So they were getting poke checked and giving up odd man rushes like crazy. That's been eliminated this year.

So they're taking a safer approach, somehow still scoring at a pretty good clip. And it's really benefited them. There's far less counterattack chances against the Islanders and against most other teams. Yeah, and that strategy is clearly working for them. I wonder looking ahead to a potential matchup down the road, depending on who they play in round to a team that is more well-suited with the defensive firepower to actually handle the idea of going back, retrieving the puck and doing something productive with it,

as opposed to fumbling and turning it over and being a mess. That might pose some problems for this approach the islanders are doing in terms of dumping and chasing, as you mentioned. It's a lot easier to get away with that when you don't trust the opposing defense to actually be able to handle that as opposed to a smooth skating or smooth passing blue line that can go back, get the puck first and foremost and then get it back out of the zone with possession, right? Like obviously there are very few teams because I feel like our defensive evaluation still isn't on par and there's just, I feels like there isn't enough defensemen to go around for everyone in the league to have a bunch of guys who are capable of doing that. but there are a few teams that are well suited to handle a dump and chase attack like that. Yeah, and I feel like, I mean, are you saying that it's easier to forecheck Jack Johnson than Victor Headman? Yeah, it's a slightly easier, although I guess at this point,

if he's not even in the lineup, might be pretty easy to forecheck. That's true. That's true. And, I mean, all this said, I mean, I'm looking at it now, and the team that's given up the most scoring chances of anyone in the playoffs so far is actually the Islanders and even strength. Well, and also helps having Robin Lennar behind you. make up and Lennar's been fantastic, right? So like already in three games, the penguins at five on five have 40 scoring chances on net.

The next highest is the Golden Knights at 34. So there's something there and there's some definite luck, you know, factoring in there or great performance by Robin Lennar. But clearly the penguins are finding ways to get chances and it's just not working out for them. So, you know, I don't think this is necessarily a series where, the ice is tilted so much towards the penguins where you're like, well, this is going to be a big comeback and the penguins are going to do the reverse sweep. But there's definitely potential for that series to be prolonged a little bit more and maybe put some fear into the Islanders as it goes on here. Because as it stands right now, I think at even strength anyway, the Pittsburgh Penguins have outplayed them a little bit.

but then there's also like scoring effects to take into account as well so like the islanders have played the lead a lot and i feel like there's something to be said as well for their ability to respond it seems like every single time the penguin score the islanders just roar right back and that's something you know you can't necessarily measure with analytics because this the sample size is so tiny but i love that kind of resilience yeah and i think game one was like one of the most fun games of the entire postseason so far it was back in of trading chances is really exciting to watch. And I do think the Penguins were the superior team ever so slightly in that game.

And Lennar was kind of the difference for the Islanders. Game two, just because they got out to that lead, it messes with a lot of the numbers. But I think game three was really eye-opening in terms of, you know, the Penguins went up early with that goal and right back, the Islanders come back, score to go up. And at that point you're thinking, okay, you know, the Penguins could have a bit of a pushback here or at least, you know, just because they are chasing the game and because they're down in the series, I think they're going to kind of throw. the kitchen sink and the islanders and instead the islanders really just took it to them and really

never gave them a chance to get going and really dominated the rest of that game and i thought it was a very sort of statement um performance by them where it was a very very legitimate road win and you know now they're going up three nothing they have a stranglehold of this of the series and i certainly by no means think it's it's a fluke even if the penguins have outplayed them ever so slightly a five-on-five in an aggregate i think the series is trending towards looking very good for the Islanders. Now, let's outline some potential either areas they've struggled in or what the penguins could do to get back into this series. And I think, you know, we talked about that breakout and ultimately just with the personnel they have at this point, especially if Ole Mata's

going to be out, not that he's, you know, a gem and puck mover by any means. But when you're comparing him to some of the other guys, that is still a bit of a loss for them. The issue for me is that Chris LaTang, regardless of what his on-ice file, and five numbers look like in this series looks like he's not 100% unfortunately yeah things aren't you know looking i mean when is crystal hang 100% in his career that's like a question that i will probably never quite get an answer to but has there been anybody who's been more unlucky than him in terms of injuries and we can say that you know health is a bit of a skill but man the injuries that he's had yeah it's almost semi-salo like and you know he hasn't been bitten by

a snake yet, but maybe he'll get there. Hopefully not. But yeah, I mean, it seems like every year there's some crazy thing that happens to Crystal Tang, and he manages to put up nearly a point for game despite missing half the season every year. But yeah, he hasn't been

doing it for me so much in this series. And, you know, as much as you don't want to get too bogged down in points for a short sample size, it's shocking to me that Crosby's been held without a point in this series. And all credit goes to the aisles there, I think being able to focus on him and shut him down is incredible,

especially since Malcon hasn't had the greatest season. It's probably a better year to let Malkin go without top coverage than any of the last five. So that's kind of interesting for the Penguins. I feel like this Penguins team and maybe last year as well, maybe less so last year, but this year, one thing can go wrong for them and they're a lot more susceptible to falling apart than the two cup winning teams where they had, you know, they were a little bit younger, a little bit more depth. And, you know, like, I really like Jake Gensel, but he's really the only guy that they've brought in that's, you know, a high impact player since that time. So I don't know.

I just feel like they're maybe out of their cup window and they're still really good, but they're just, they're susceptible to this. And that's just the reality now. And everyone is kind of like, I don't want to, like, I'm guilty of this too, but everyone kind of sees the penguin still. as a powerhouse and maybe they're just good and not necessarily a powerhouse anymore. Yeah, and that might not necessarily mean that they can't make another long, extended run at some point down the road with its core, right? Because all it takes is a better matchup or a few things to go. You're away, but you're right.

When you get a bit older and you have a bit less depth, all of a sudden, your margin for error shrinks and, you know, a few mistakes here. They're ultimately result in being down three nothing. And we'll talk a bit more about Crosby here. I think, you know, in terms of the blue line and in terms of Latang, the reason why I say he hasn't looked 100 percent is, is, I'm a few things. I know he's like he's been playing a lot and I think by other people's measures or by other people's benchmarks, he'd be perfectly fine. But it does feel like there's been so many instances so far in this series where there's been just kind of head scratching positional stuff where you're like, why was he there and not over here where the puck was before it went into the back of the net?

And I think that's been kind of a common recurring theme with this Penguins team. I know that there's a lot of stats out there in terms of how many rush chances they gave up last. year during the regular season and how vulnerable they were to that area of the game and I think we've seen it where it feels like there's been so many islanders odd man rushes whether it's been two on ones or three on twos and it seems like whether it's turnovers or just you know bad positioning or what have you um every time I look up at the screen it feels like the islanders are on one of those odd man rushes and they've capitalized on it so when we went into the series wondering you know the penguins have more firepower offensively how are the islanders going to be able to

generate enough offense to keep up with that but The defensive component is one side of things, but they've also been very opportunistic in taking advantage of those. And in particular, that newly united line with Barzal, Eberle, and Anders Lee has been terrific. I think the three of them have like 21 high danger attempts so far in this series, and they've been dominant and generating goals. So you put all of that together, and that's sort of how we've gotten to this point in time. Yeah, and we talked about the forecheck, and I'm just looking at a few things as we're talking. here and it's interesting to me that the penguins so far in the playoffs have the second lowest puck battle win rate in their own zone and the second lowest puck battle win rate in the

offensive zone so their own forechecks are not great and they're getting forecheck into oblivion by the islanders and there are just so many opportunities to win loose pucks in both zones that if you can't get your fair share of those it's really tough to you know like maintain cycles maintain offensive zone time, create secondary chances, all these little things that, like, maybe the numbers aren't huge in a single game, but over a series really start to add up. And even in a short sample size, like, three games, it seems like combined with the little weaknesses that the penguins have, the cracks are starting to show. And then, you know, you don't want to say, go back to, like, the cliches, but maybe the puck battle stuff to me sometimes comes

down to, like, who wants it more, you know, not to be a super old school guy, but, but, but, maybe, the puck battle stuff, but it just seems like the islanders are fighting a lot more than the penguins are. And part of that is that the penguins are a little bit slow, right? Especially their defense. As much as Good Branson has been much better than expected in Pittsburgh, he's not fleet of foot. You know, Jack Johnson's not the greatest skater anymore, at least side to side. Olimata, who's out now, also not a great skater. So, you know, when you're relying on a probably injured Chris LaTang and Brian Dumolin,

who I think also missed time at the end of the season. Yeah. Or maybe even in a playoff game. Well, him and him in a lot of time, both got injured in that outdoor game against Philly. Yeah. Frigin outdoor games, man. Yeah. It's crazy how often players get injured in those. Yeah.

Well, and they've done obviously a great job against Crosby, and that's kind of like, I think, where, I mean, he's so responsible for so much of what the Penguins do offensively. We had such a terrific season, and I've talked him up as a hard candidate. as a Selky candidate because of everything he's done. But, you know, you look in those three games, he's got zero points, he's got only six shots, he's sub-50% at 5-15 in all the shots share metrics and all the high-danger stuff. And you put all that together, and Nilelanders have done a terrific job against him, and particularly in the first two games where they had last change, they were really going out of their way to get that fourth line of Sazekis Martin

and Clutterbuck out against him, and they did a terrific job against him. and I'm very curious to see what adjustments Mike Sullivan potentially makes in game for. I don't think putting Dominic Simone on Crosby's wing is going to be the solution here. I wonder if they're going to try to push the envelope a bit more by maybe moving Kessel up there or maybe even getting some minutes with Malkin and Crosby or what have you just to kind of get them going and get this Kickstarter because unless Crosby can put together a vintage performance here, I ultimately don't see how they're going to be able to break through this Islanders defense. a wall and score enough to win this series.

Yeah, it's incredible what they've been able to do to Crosby. Like two of the top three players in high danger scoring chances in the playoffs that even strength are Matt Martin and Casey Sazikis. And if you predicted that, you're lying. You know, like that line has been pretty incredible in the series. And I honestly wonder, because I feel like over the last few years, Crosby has kind of been like at 80% effort in the regular season to save up for the playoffs.

I wonder if he needed to go too hard this year in order to get the penguins in. Because remember they were like out of the playoffs like the two-thirds mark of the season and they didn't have a fantastic regular season. So I wonder how much of it is just he had to push too much and he's just spent. He also does play such like a physically taxing style, right?

We don't necessarily think of that because we think of him a skill player but he's like he's the most talented grinder in the world right and and uh and so i i totally buy that and i don't know i you don't want to kind of get into this whole like uh 20 20 hindsight thing and in retrospect be like oh well obviously we should have seen this coming but while i don't think anyone really predicted this i predicted the penguins would win this series and seven heading into it i did think it was going to be hardly contested i thought they'd ultimately just have too much offense for the islanders keep up with and they'd find a way to break through but then kind of when you watch these games play out and you put it all together and you go okay you know the islanders are

the better goaltending they're putting they're kind of doing a great job of converting defense into offense with their forecheck and taking advantage of some of these um miscues on the rush by the penguin's defense and you sort of put that all together and you're like oh maybe we should have given them more of a chance heading into this series or or i don't know if that is just kind of with the benefit of hindsight now i mean it's probably a lot of hindsight but i feel like also a lot of these things like one of the things I did for SportsNet this year was I broke down the very nitty-gritty details and where teams ranked in specific statistics and tried to figure out how they matched up against each other in terms of strengths and weaknesses.

And one of the matchups is not this series, but I feel like it's a good illustration, is I looked at the Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche. And the Avalanche are a good team. I feel like I've kind of been pumping their tires all year this season. I felt like they deserved to be in the playoffs all year. year, even though they had that like big swoon in the middle of the year where they couldn't score, couldn't keep bucks out of their net. But they're not a great team.

They're just a good team. And the Calgary Flames in the regular season were a fantastic team, especially if you ignore cold ending. So one of the things that I looked at was the Calgary Flames were the best team in the NHL this year at forcing turnovers in the offensive zone and the neutral zone. So like they're making teams give up odd man rushes. They led the league in on man rushes. And I looked at the Colorado Avalanche, and they were a team that gave up a lot of

turnovers in all three zones. So I'm like, okay, this is a matchup made in heaven for the Calgary Flames because they're just going to force so many turnovers against this team and make hay off of odd man rushes. You know, and two games in, they have three odd man rushes at five on five. They've just been completely shut down. Colorado has, you know, pre-scouted them perfectly and really focused on defending their own blue line, which is something they were terrible at. during the season.

And it's been a really tightly fought series. And I feel like so much of what we look at in the regular season, you know, we want an 82 game schedule to give us a prediction of what's going to happen. And then coaches get a little bit of time off to really pre-scout with video and prepare their players and change things in order to combat a specific team. And I feel like especially in the first round, almost everything goes out of the window. Whereas in the second round, there's like less time to turn. around, especially if your series goes long, and maybe you don't have the time to do that pre-scouting,

and you have to figure it out on the fly. But this first round, man, if you have a really good coaching staff and a really good video coach and your players are willing to listen and buy in, you can surprise teams. It's incredible. Yeah. And obviously, so much of it in these playoffs series sometimes. Like, I think you're right, as the postseason goes along, I think health is probably the number one thing, and then it's talent drives it a lot.

I think early on in the postseason, a lot of it does come down. to sort of like team strength and weaknesses and sort of how the two teams fit together and which one comes out on top and more of those and can kind of take advantage of the other team's flaws and sort of you know to put a bow on this penguin's islander series it's kind of a perfect storm in that regard um and as you mentioned earlier i did want to give jordan ever really a bit of love for absolutely crushing i think he's got three goals and five points so far in the first three games and has been a threat pretty much every time he's been in the offensive zone and it's funny to think I know there was cap ramifications and the oilers moved away from

him for that but don't fool yourself. I think the fact that he struggled as he did in that postseason run they had a couple years ago was a big reason why he was moved out the door so it's kind of funny to see him or I guess ironic to see him killing it the way he has so far. Yeah, it's a great story and I kind of feel bad for Edmonton fans but I don't feel bad at all for Edmonton management and I hope they're watching this and kind of scratching their heads and figuring things out because like man the overreactions in that city to good players and the the amount of crap that they're willing to live with for bad players is just like every single hallmark you can imagine for a poorly managed team the oilers demonstrate it amazingly well and that's the kind of the thing

people always ask me like oh we get it the oilers are our laughing stock they're a joke why do you keep coming back to this and it's like it's not like a personal thing it's more so stuff like this ebblerly trade i remember that year he shot under 10% when he's generally really been a well above average shooter for his career and then he struggled in 13 playoff games and people are jumping to all these reactions and ultimately they move them because of that and it's like I feel like our whole platform is based around not doing that sort of stuff and making smart personnel decisions by understanding sample sizes and understanding what matters and what doesn't so when teams like the oilers and like some of the more poorly run teams around

the league do stuff like that it's kind of like our job to point that out so it's not a thing against the oilers it's just a thing against the moves but anyways um Yeah, I'm enjoying this Islander's run so far, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the rest of this series turns out and whether the penguins can claw back into this and at least push it back to game 5 in New York where that crowd has been amazing. Andrew, let's take a quick break here to hear from a sponsor, and then we're going to talk about Lightning Blue Jackets. Sponsoring today's episode of the HockeyPedio guest is Seek. The ticket industry hasn't changed in a long time. There's a bunch of big companies out there who have been around forever, and because they've kind of cornered the market, they don't really. really care about making the experience easier for the customer because they feel like they don't need

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Hopefully people are still listening since that tease. So before the series, I previewed this one with my. johnson last week and we highlighted a couple of areas where the blue jackets sort of the formula for them to make this at least a series and stay competitive and i don't think either of us in our wildest dreams expected that a week later we'd be talking about this is three nothing for the blue jackets but i think we're both sort of talking about how this is a good team how despite the fact that they struggle to get into the postseason there's obviously a lot of pieces there and sort of the things we outlined were one goal tending where you know bobrowski had been so hot down the stretch to carry the blue jackets in and

you look and i think they've made life certainly easier for him with containing a lot of what the lightning have done to the point especially in game three but he has a 940 say percentage and and has saved nearly three goals above average in uh in this series so far and and he's kind of doing a lot now to shed a lot of those postseason demons and all this talk about whether he could perform this time of year and it's sort of funny to look back now as a sort of a historical anecdote of game one when Pierre McGuire is talking about how Bobrovsky was looking shaky and warm-ups after they go down three-nothing and so yeah of course he sort of knew this was coming and then he's given up two goals since then which is uh it's amazing

to go back and listen to that now yeah i mean pierre just doesn't know when to stop talking but in his defense and i can't believe i'm saying in peer McGuire's offense but i literally don't think he's had a night off this post for sure like he literally just keeps going from postseason series to postseason series and it's like i i don't think he'd necessarily be a great analyst by any means if he was calling one game a week but i think when you're expected to do that much and especially different series involving different teams it's like impossible for anyone to have enough insightful to say when you're working that much yeah and i i feel like we could probably go back further than the playoffs and say like when's the last time you had a day off this year you know he

flies all over the place for NBC and I feel like he goes to a lot of junior games and college hockey games throughout the year as well so like he's not a guy who rests on his laurels by any means but I think it's more like the kinds of things that you choose

to pick out and point out like not to get sidetracked too much on McGuire but I think overall in terms of like color commentary people he gives more insightful analysis on what's going on than most of them it's just that he talks too often.

Yeah, he just says a bunch of other ridiculous stuff that people latch on to. Don't need. Yeah. So, like, if he were to just keep it to the insightful things, and he has a lot of insights, like he was an NHL coach, he points things out. Sometimes I'm like, oh, yeah, I didn't notice that until you said it. But then he goes on for like 10 straight minutes about, you know, the Junior B league that some guy's brother played in back in, you know, 1997 and the St. Mike's majors and blah, blah,

blah and you're like hey just let the game speak a little bit like have a little less is more you know be more like a soccer announcer yeah you know just let the game talk but yeah anyway uh this team uh well no let me let me let me rattle through this list and then we're going to get into into Columbus so the goal tending as I mentioned was one and clearly that sort of paid off so far I think the second one was staying out of the box we know this lightning power play was the number one ranked you did this year and I think over the past 30 years or something obscene like they were just so dominant and they were just creating goals at an insane rate and the blue jackets this year which kind of runs a bit counterintuitive in terms of like a john torterella rough and tumble sort of

gritty team but they were i think the least penalized team in the league or in the bottom five i forget the exact total was but you look so far the lightning at three power play opportunities in game one two in game two and zero in game three and that's clearly um when you look at sort of how they've been able to stifle this lightning offense and how they've been able to keep them off the scoreboard that goes into it i think slowing down the game and limiting events was another thing and there's been a massive decline in terms of all the shot rates um at five on five for the lightning from the regular season to the postseason and the events that have been going on have really kind of grinded to a halt and that obviously favors a bluejackets team that's whatever slightly less

talented than this historically great offensive lightning team and another is the depth in secondary scoring and I know that Dushain's been awesome and he's put together a bunch of points and Panarin and Atkinson have been what you'd expect but then you look and there's also been goals from Folino and Anderson and Bjork Strand and a lot of the blue liners are chipping in David Savard is looking like

Bob Yor out there and and so you put all of that together and pretty much every one of those you know pieces of the formula that the blue jackets would need to come through to make this series has happened and then that's i guess what you get this ultimate result but at the same time i don't think anyone expected this and you know when the blue when the lightning went up three nothing early in game one that raised the aggregate uh season series total to 20 to three for Tampa bay and since then the blue jackets have outscored them 12 too so it has just been like an insane turnaround for the ages and i know i wonder if people are going to get tired of

people talking about this series in terms of that kind of hyperbolic historical stature, but that's really what it is and there's no other way to talk about it. Yeah, I am like this series is absolutely shocking to me. And I think the only thing more shocking has been, you know, Mike Smith actually being good. But it's crazy not just that Columbus is ahead because I feel like crazy things happen in the playoffs and, you know, a great team can be goalied. but the fact that Columbus has been able to just pound the life out of the lightning. And it's not like overall, if you look at the like the scoring chance differential and the shot chair,

the lightning are still in it, right? Like overall, sport logic has the scoring chances at 63 to 61 for the lightning, or for the blue jackets in all situations. scoring chances on net are 39 to 33 for the blue jackets and high danger chances are 20 to 20. So like things are relatively close to even and the lightning are getting more shots. But listen to those. Listen to those totals though. Like that those are pretty low numbers overall.

They are. Even if the lightning are looking good for what you'd hope for their offense. Yeah. And also like sport logic totals are lower than natural statrix totals, right? So like there's a little bit different ways. of the way that they're calculated. But what drives me, like, not drives me, but what surprises me most is the starts that Columbus has been able to have

in the second and third games. Because the, I mean, the lightning have been incredible this year in consistently getting their scoring chances on net and consistently piling up chances every period, right? Like they just don't take time off. And for the first time, this entire season, they went a full period without getting a scoring chance on net, and that was game two, period one.

And then game two or game three period one as well, they didn't get a scoring chance on net. That's crazy. Like for the first time all season long, they haven't been able to been stifled like this. So it's just such a world-class performance by the Blue Jackets defensively. And like, yeah, offensively they've been getting it done too, and it's been impressive how easily they've been able to get to Vasilevsky.

and get the puck moving through the lightning zone. And I'm sure part of that is that Hedman's not healthy. And, you know, I think McDonough had some health issues down the stretch as well. But you've got to give, like, unbelievable amounts of credit to the preparation of that coaching staff and the depth that the Columbus Blue Jackets have. And I also feel like the best part of this storyline is that a team that bought heavily at the deadline is actually being rewarded. And I love that so much. Yeah, it really is a kind of like space jam.

feels like the lightning just like had their ability zapped and are just kind of just like walking around now just kind of with their slumped shoulders, just not knowing what to do. And I think of Montstarred. Yeah, but typically, you know, we we focus on the team it's happening too with the Lightning just because of all their past postseason failures in the regular season they had and how we came into this postseason with such high expectations for them. And I get that. But I think we do need to focus more here on what the Blue Jackets have done to them and sort of

what that tells us and how they've accomplished it because, Clearly, some of it has to do, I'm sure, with, like, the psychological component of the game and the lightning just falling apart a little bit. But it is, it's not like it's happening for no reason. Like, the way the Blue Jackets are playing them in terms of the speed they're playing with and how they're just swarming all over them and bawling them up is been really amazing to watch, especially in game three. I know that Hedman wasn't in the lineup and Kutra wasn't in there. And so it becomes a lot easier to defend them. But, I mean, especially in those first two periods, I know in the third period, the lightning kind of opened things up a little bit and made their last dash to try and tie it.

But those first two periods, like they, it felt like they couldn't string three passes together and stay in a cycle in the offensive zone just because the blue jackets were everywhere. And that's just an amazing team effort from top to bottom. It seems like there's very, very few flaws in this team and holes in the lineup. And it has been a total team effort. And it's been amazing to watch. And it's sort of similar to what we were talking about with Islanders earlier in the show in terms of turning defense to offense and just sort of how that tenacious ability not to let the team have any sort of real space to operate with ultimately leads to a bunch of great things down the road.

Yeah, and I think you're right that like if the Columbus Blue Jackets backed off a little bit and let the lightning catch their breath. Yeah. This series might turn around quickly. And I feel like if there is any series that does have a potential for a big comeback and a reverse sweep, it is this one just because the lightning are so good. but man I feel like you know I don't want to get bogged down too much in like the old school stuff but watching the way this series has come across and all credit to the to the blue jackets and like I'm just so impressed by what they've been able to put together but do you question like the mental fortitude of the Tampa Lightning do you do you think they are like a little bit

weak-willed to just be trampled so easily in the first round after looking so strong I really don't I hate talking about that stuff do you Just yeah, because like, who knows? I don't, like, we don't know any of these guys. I don't know what their thing. I don't know what's going on in that room. It seems like it's just like, it's such an easy cop-out thing to focus on that and be like, oh, you know, they just don't have the confidence. They don't have the mental resolve what it takes to get over the hump when they get pushed by another team.

Like, I'd be, I'm much more interested in focusing on what the Blue Jackets have done to get them to that level as opposed to just attributing everything to the lightning lacking some sort of playoff gene to get it done and finally win it all. well i wouldn't say they're like lacking a playoff gene but like i would like to see some level of pushback you know and i feel like those two first periods really stick out on my mind and like how easily they like it kind of they just looked like they'd given up you know what i mean and i i feel like a team that just completely dominated all season long and never really faced any adversity when the first sign of adversity comes up and you kind of just wilt that that worries me a little bit And I feel like, you know, we're obviously putting the cart before the horse here because the series is not over. And this series could change.

But I'd be a little bit worried, not like I would blow things up. But I would see if maybe there's some changes that need to be made for the lightning. Just because, I don't know, I don't think you can have a season that great. And like I mentioned on Twitter that this would be like one of the most pathetic performances ever by a president's trophy winning team. And people were like, oh, well, did you forget that the Canucks again? against the Kings and like, okay, let's back it up here because the Canucks that year were great. They weren't the lightning of this season great. And the LA Kings that season, by all analytics, were like an absolute powerhouse that just

got super unlucky during the regular season, whereas like Columbus was good, not great during the regular season. And they've been great in this postseason, but there wasn't a bunch of signs pointing towards this being a potential upset. And somebody mentioned the Chicago Blackhawks in the year that the National Predators. winning to Stanley Cup Finals. And, like, again, the Predators were a team that pretty much all the analytics were pointing to were better than Chicago. So this is a series that I don't think anyone would have seen many huge flaws in the lightning that would lead to Columbus doing this.

So I just, I'm shocked by the level at which the Columbus Blue Jackets have been able to dominate them, especially when the score is close. Yeah, but I guess the issue with like, when people say like things need to change for this lightning team assuming they don't come back in this series and at least show some sort of fighting game before and on it's like it's a lot easier to say that without actual examples of what that would be right because for the most part like at the end of the day i mean there's no one that's um absolvable all blame but it's like their top players for tampa bay just haven't performed up to not only what they did in the regular season but what you'd expect any top player to do in the postseason and it's really hard to wait

like we're seeing in that penguin series when Cindy Crosby has zero points in three games, clearly the penguins are going to have a tough time winning. And similarly here, when you're just not getting any real offense sustainably from Stamkos and Kutrov in point, it's tough. And I don't think anyone would make the argument that the lightning are going to be better off, moving off from one of those guys and trying to trade them this summer. So I'm just not sure what that sort of solution is beyond, I don't know, tangential stuff of like adding better bottom six guys, even though I do like their depth players,

Ryan Callahan aside. I think that's the biggest issue for me with the lightning is like, where's the weakness structurally? Like, I don't see it. Like, I think their depth is among the best in the league. I really like Anthony Sorrelli. They have great defensive players. Like, I just, I'm not sure where you can improve this roster and stay under the cap, right? So I just don't know, like, what the solution is.

Well, here's the other thing, I think, like, obviously this isn't the first year that they've sort of fell short of expectations, is disappointed so you can't necessarily look at this in a vacuum. But listen to how we're talking about this series in terms of just like how staggered we are by it and how far it differs from our expectations and how like historical a feat it is. And I think making any sort of rash decision based on four, five, six, whatever, just kind of shocking out of left field games is just like a really bad way to run your team. And I think we'd all agree on that. So it's like I'm okay with making some sort of moves on the sides to potentially come in with a different group just so you're kind of getting a bit of a fresh start next season.

But at the same time, like it's going to be the same core. And it should be because we were talking about a team that won 62 games this season. Yeah, you can't panic, obviously. And I think the one thing that would worry me with this lightning team is if they panic and get rid of John Cooper. Because I really, I really respect him as a coach. They just gave him an extension, so I can't see that happening. Yeah, you're right. It's strange because, like, it would be extremely unsatisfying for a lot of people,

but if they do go out and four, I mean, the most likely scenario was probably they almost do nothing, right? Like, they're going to have to move some money around in order to resign Braden Point. But, you know, if they move Ryan Callahan, I don't think they're, you know, hurting the team at all. Yeah. So it's a weird one. This is, it's so beyond the scope of what I thought was even possible. in the first round. We've seen teams like, you know, in 2010 when the Canadians beat the Washington

Capitals, that was a crazy series. And you could see what was happening very clearly that the Capitals were just getting goalied and, you know, the Canadians were like blocking shots like crazy. Hal Gill, Roman Hammer, like Yaros Pachik, were doing this amazing net front defense, keeping shots not to the outside but to the high slot. And Halak was just cleaning everything up. And they got crazy clutch scoring. and a lot of power play scoring.

And you can see that, like, on balance, the Capitals were absolutely dominating that series, but they just couldn't get the luck necessary to win. This is, like, completely different. This is, like, turning that on its head, the team that was expected to be, you know, run over ends up doing all the running over themselves. And I think that's what's most surprising to me

is it's not a situation where it's just Bobrovsky stopping everything. It's that the Columbus Blue Jackets have been full, value and I just did not expect this as even a possibility. I thought it could like go long because the blue jackets are a good team but I didn't think there was any chance that the lightning would be this bad. Right. You just kind of keep waiting for something to happen that it's going to turn this around right and at this point like it might not but I know like and it shouldn't have been but heading into game three even without Kutrov and headman I think the lightning were still the betting favorite and we're still favorite in that game and I imagine when they

if they get those two guys back for game four they're going to get kutroux back obviously i imagine there's still going to be favored to win game four and it's like and moving on if they keep advancing and and keep extending this series and that's just kind of like the the bonkers element of this or it's like everyone just keeps expecting this lightning team just based on how good they were this season and how few times they lost back-to-back games to get over this and and figure it out but it hasn't happened yet and there's still time but you're right if it was one of those things where Bobrovsky was just playing out of his mind and the lightning just weren't catching a break, you'd go, okay, well, I still like their chances heading into game four because you just got

to stick with the process. But it's clear that they can't stick with this process because, especially in game three, like the Blue Jack has just outplayed them all over the ice. And that's a testament to Columbus, but also a massive red flag for Tampa Bay in terms of going back into the room and trying to figure out what you're going to do to fix this. Yeah, I mean, let's uh as a thought experiment if you're john cooper like what do you say like what do you try to just like pump up your guys for game four and tell them like you know you know how great you are go be that and like you know the old rah-rah or is there something something else like is it is it a guilt trip call them like losers or like i just don't know what the answer is to this

to to get them to to come out guns of blazing because Man, if they have another first period, like the last two games, like it's probably over. Yeah, and the tough thing is, obviously, with Game 4 being in Columbus, the Blue Jax are going to have last change, so it's really tough to get the matchups you want, and I imagine whatever you're a top.

Like we saw yesterday that Braden points line was just, I mean, pretty much every time they were on the ice where Anski and Jones were out with them, and so it's all, it makes things a lot tougher, but I'd really explore potentially, I don't know, putting Kuturov and Stamcoast back together

at 5-15 and maybe try and go that route. Like I think it's really tough just based on how they've been outplayed to just stick with the same formations, which is so silly to say after three bad games considering the 82 they just played. Yeah, no kidding. It's really tough. And people are just ripping John Cooper apart online for this. And I don't think he's necessarily done a masterful job.

But at the same time, it does feel like there's so much more to this, especially with what the Blue Jackets have done that's responsible for this. And I think it's just kind of the easy. way out to just point all of the blame on the coaching or on the lightning and not look at the other end of the ice. Yeah, it's a weird one. Like, man, I'm almost like at a loss for words. We're both four.

Yeah, it's stunning. Yeah, it is. And I mean, you look at John Cooper's press conference after the last game and someone asked like, are you shocked? And he was like, well, we're still in it. It was like, I think you're a little bit rattled, man. Like, I don't know how you could not be. And I feel like that's like the big challenge here is like the gap between the teams in

terms of talent and execution in the regular season is large enough that it is entirely possible that the lightning could still do the river sweep. But I guess, like, you have to rein the guys in who are possibly panicking right now. And I feel like, you know, Vasilowski is the guy that you can probably rally around because as much as he's allowed quite a few goals in the series. I think he's been great, especially in the third period last game. Like, he has held them in it like crazy. I guess earn a win for Vassia could be the thing and like you got to take it one game at a time as they say but

you've got to get some guys to to cool their nerves a little bit and I feel like Kutrov in the second game like completely lost it. Yeah that was indefensible yeah yeah so like I mean I doubt Kutrov's going to do the same thing in game four but you've got to make sure that everybody is super motivated and like cooler heads prevail right like don't uh don't pull a cadre on anyone. I think we're going to see a big Kutraff performance in game four. I imagine after everything that's happened

over the past three games, and we'll see if that's enough, but you're right. That's why we're kind of tempering all these takes because this lightning team is so good that they could quickly make this a series again. But man, you're right.

I feel like I need to kind of gather my thoughts a bit more. It's going to take some time to try to wrap our heads around this. And I think that, especially if the lightning do losing games, for and get swept the takes or online are going to be just epically bad they're going to be like carolina reaper spicy yeah yeah it's going to be crazy and you know i feel like at a certain point

when you lose in for if you if they do lose in four they kind of earn those takes in a lot of ways even if they aren't necessarily correct but man could you imagine they lose 20 like 25% of all the times they lost in the regular season and they do that four straight in the playoffs like That's nuts. Jesus. Man, like, I just don't know what the answer could be for the lightning in terms of, like, outside of just kind of ignoring it and going right back at it next season. But you've got to be, like, in such a state of shock. Like, I feel like all summer, if they lose, I'm just going to sit back.

And every time I think about it, I'm just going to go, what? Like, what happened there? And I don't know if there's even an explanation outside of Columbus is just insanely, well prepared and you know i know a lot of people hate john tordorello but you've got to give the coaching staff credit in in columbus for for prepping for this series his little pump up uh after they went down three nothing in the first period in game one was uh pretty epic yeah it the takes on on damabur gonna be bad especially like if they get out to a hot start next year and they're doing one of the regular season just like the push back to like oh who cares it's just a regular season

we've seen this before are going to be bad as if being good in the regular season is ultimately a bad thing. But you're right. Right. And yeah? I was going to say, I've seen a few people being like, oh, well, they clearly like push too hard to be like the greatest regular season team and they waste all their energy. But I don't know, watching Tampa Bay down the stretch, I thought they coasted to the end. And I think they were saving energy. So I don't know. I just don't buy that that they, you know, tried too hard in the regular season.

and they had such a lead on everyone that they didn't need to. Yeah, regular season is bad as such a galaxy brain take that I had the time to move on from this series. But on the other end of things, hopefully Columbus's success here is going to incentivize teams to be more aggressive and go for it in future deadlines. Yes, please. So we're pretty much coming up on an hour mark here. I wanted to talk about blues jets and flames abs with you, but I feel like we're going to have to pick just one of them and quickly get into it. Do you have a preference in either of those? Well, I feel like we touched on

Flames' Aves in the structural changes that the avalanche have made, but let's go into Blues Jets. I feel like I've watched more of that series. Sure. So what have you... Okay, so what have been your takes through these first three games?

I've actually thought that Winnipeg has looked better in this series than they have since, like, November. I really was unimpressed with them, especially in the second half of the season. As the season went on, they got worse defensively every single month, which is really worrying. I thought that they were going to be a potential four game and out team.

You know, Josh Morrissey coming back is huge. Dustin Bufflin looking good. The Buffaloins looked awesome. Oh my God, he's such a wrecker in the playoffs, man. Because it's not just like the offensive and defensive impact he has. It's just like he dares you to come at him. Well, and also being able to shoulder as much of a workload and eat up as much ice time as he does considering his body type

and also just like the playing style and how physical he is like for him to and obviously like he's battled with some injuries in the past couple regular seasons or whatever and this year was a bit of a challenge for him but assuming he is healthy for him to be able to do what he does for as much for as long with the game as he does is really remarkable. Yeah he's so impressive to me and you know speaking of impressive

despite how much better the Jets have been than the regular season man the blues they're they're awesome like this is a great series and I feel like the first two games being won by the blues in Winnipeg made a lot of people think that it was going to be a quick series and you know the Jets would never solve Jordan Bennington and it wouldn't be a great series but the level of hockey's been great I really like the way these two teams match up against each other I like the way that the Jets have been able to change the way that they attack at to to capitalize more off the rush in order to take advantage of like that's the only

of weakness that the blues have is defending their own blue line. So I love that. And man, last game I thought was so exciting. I was so impressed with the way the Jets formulated their forecheck and their cycle and how well they were able to pin the Blues down because the Blues are actually one of the best teams of defending the forecheck in the entire league. And man, the Jets were just relentless. And I was incredibly impressed.

And the fact that the Blues just didn't give up at any point in the game and they scored a couple in the third period. And I think this series is far from over. And I hope that it gets tied up in the next game when we go seven. It's super exciting. Well, the more I think about it, the more I think of this series is like a very direct parallel to the Bruins Leaf series out east, right? Especially I think this Blues team compared to the Bruins in terms of like when they

get set in their defensive zone and when they can rely on their system, they're just like you're not going to generate nearly enough offense against them. but the way you can capitalize on them is off the rush. And so a team with as much skill as Winnipeg does, it kind of lent itself to potentially coming back to bite you on the other end of the ice, but you sort of have to just because otherwise you're going to be kind of just kind of spinning your wheels and not generating anything. But I think like the big developments for me here,

other than Patrick Liney looking like Patrick Lainey again and coming out firing in the series with the three goals he has and just being that threat from the left dot again and just firing the puck pretty much every time he gets it. and the power play looking good, obviously, with Buffalo and Back, is that at 5-1-5, they've kind of held up there under the bargain, and that speaks to what you were talking about in terms of looking better defensively and looking more like the team we expected them to be, because when I was previewing this series, I kind of pointed out how much they'd struggled towards

the end of the year with all the injuries they'd had, and how a lot of their top guys had really seen a massive decline in terms of underlying numbers, and they've bounced back and sort of held not only played them to a draw but especially in game three really dominated and you know it was a nice bounce back from them after dropping the first two at home and going down in game three again on the road it would have been really easy to go like oh no here we go again and view it as an insurmountable deficit but their offense really exploded and finally broke through that blues d in binnington and it was fun to watch and i'm really curious to see the rest of the series i do think it's probably going to go seven just based on how you only match these teams are

Yeah, I think one thing to watch for the Jets is that through three games, they've got 51 scoring chances at 5 on 5, but only 22 on net, whereas the Blues are getting a lot more of their chances on net. So it's been a little bit tougher for Hellebuck at 5 on 5, whereas the Jets power play is just, you know, on foiego. But power plays are few and far between. Even in this series, it's become very physical. And the Jets take a lot of penalties as well, which has been a problem forever. ever since they came to Winnipeg. This is what I noticed. So in game one,

like the Blues are a four-line team and all those guys can play, but ultimately, like that O'Reilly line with Teresenko is what you're most worried about, right? And so from the Jets perspective, in game one, they made a point of sort of going power

versus power, and they went Shifley and Truba and Morrissey against them. And then in game two, they went away from that matchup and they threw that cop-tanae-lawry line at them. Now, in game three, with the blues, I guess, dictating the matchups,

they went back to more of that power versus power, but the Blues were trying to get Ryan O'Reilly's line away from Trouba and Morrissy and get them out against Bufflin and Sherrod a bit more. And so I'm kind of curious to see that injured play and the comfort level for those two teams in terms of going against their top two lines or potentially getting away from them. But I think for the Blues, it seems like they've been the team that's really been focusing more on this and trying to get their top line and their top defensive pair out against Winnipeg's most dangerous offensive weapons, understandably, as much as possible.

But the issue with that is it feels like they're getting a bit too caught up in it because it's been a lot of Pareko and unfortunately a lot of Jay Beaumester. And I think that's an issue. I know that people keep talking about how Bowmeister is healthy now, how he had hip surgery or hip injury. And now he's finally healthy and he looked better and he earned himself a one-year extension recently. But a lot of it looks like it's just Jordan Bennington was saving everything behind him.

And if that stops happening, I think the underlying numbers are going to get exposed. And whenever you're talking about just playing Bowmeister, just because you're going for that matchup at the expense of playing Petrangil and Mintz Dunn, who are superior options, I think that's a bit of an issue from the Blues perspective. Yeah, I would agree with that. And especially I found each game of this series, Bowmeister's kind of gotten a little bit slower. And he started taking penalties in the last game. That would worry me if I was the Blues.

he's among the lowest on the team in terms of like high danger chance or high danger scoring chance differential so he's an exploitable guy at this stage in his career and you know he's dragged down preco quite a bit who's not had a great series I'm not sure what the public numbers are but his coursey according to sport logic is 38% in this series which is a little bad yeah for people who don't know it's a little bad. It's a little bad. And I feel like the Jets have not been a very deep team overall during the regular season.

Their roster looks good, but they haven't really been good. You know, they've kind of relied on that top line for scoring and then whatever line that Lowry is on has been pretty decent as well. That Eler's little line finally seems to start clicking. And then you have Kevin Hayes centering Perot and Roslovich

and that line looked really good in game three. as well, man, if they can get all four lines going, again, this series is just like deep team against deep team. And it kind of looks like they both have the same roster weakness in that their defensive depth kind of erodes pretty quickly. And this is just an eye test thing. I haven't looked it up. But it seems to me like number seven, Ben Chirot, is out of position on a lot of St.

Louis' goals. Yeah. And that's the one matter. I think for the Jets that I really worry about because he has to play with Dustin Buflin there's a lot of Jay Bowmeister and Ben Chirot in this series like a lot yes there is too much for both teams it's just too much I guess they're they're kind of canceling each other a lot a lot this is true but but you're right yeah it's it's tough those guys got to be out there because not a lot of teams have six defensemen that they

can trust at all times it's just the way the way the league works um all right let's get out here Andrew what uh what are you working on these days I know it's obviously a busy time for all of us. Yeah, my regular three articles a week for Sportsnet will be covering the playoffs, and then I've got Winnipeg Free Press. I'll be doing that up for twice a week, usually Wednesdays and Saturdays, so you can check that out if you want to pay for a Winnipeg Free Press subscription. And also I'm doing some social media stuff for the point hockey on Twitter,

doing the intermission recaps for several games, so I'm always online, extremely online. I really love that account. I co-sign that. Yeah, obviously I co-sign checking out all your work as well. But go follow at the point honky. I really enjoyed all the little tidbits and nuggets information you guys have been tweeting out throughout games. Yeah, we're trying to like liven it up a little bit this year. Whereas like last year it was we were kind of short-staffed and it was just a slog to get to all the games and put out the intermission reports.

And we're trying to put out some more unique stuff, display some information in interesting ways and give a bit of information. that maybe you wouldn't necessarily have. Like there's a piece, or not a piece, but a graphic up right now on Mark Stone and how great he's been in the playoffs. And, I mean, not exactly a hot take there. He's been fantastic. But, yeah, there's lots of cool stuff to check out. Awesome.

Well, I recommend that. And I'm glad we got to do this, man. Let's chat again soon. I'm sure I'll have you on down the road. Maybe we'll preview round two or something in a couple weeks. Absolutely, man. All right, cheers. Cheers.

Dimitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovic and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey p-diocast.