The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 311: Hate It or Love It

Episode Date: September 24, 2019

Cam Robinson joins the show to help get you ready for your fantasy drafts by discussing the players we like more than consensus, the red flag players to stay away from, and the players who find themselves in new situations this season. 6:00 The Roope Hintz buzz12:20 Andrei Svechnikov in Year 217:15 Buying low on Nino Niederreiter22:00 Larkin, Hronek and good players on bad teams26:40 Victor Olofsson's opportunity30:10 The glut of defensemen on the Islanders36:10 All of the new pieces in New Jersey42:30 The next generation of Ducks49:30 Who's going to step up for the Blue Jackets?56:00 Kevin Labanc in a 'prove it' year 58:00 Jaden Schwartz's regression1:01:00 Josh Morrissey is the last man standing1:06:00 Phil Kessel's production in his new environment1:10:00 Elias Lindholm's first vs. second half splits1:12:30 The goalie market1:18:00 Young defensemen dominating immediately1:22:00 Who's riding shotgun with McDavid and Crosby?See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. And joining me as my good buddy, Cam Robinson. Cam, what's going on, then? Not too much, sir, Dim. I've got moving boxes everywhere. We're going to move in a couple days here in the fresh baby, so busy times in my house. But I'm happy to do it. It seems like every other day you're announcing some sort of a new job or new business venture you have going on. You're arguably the busiest man in the hockey role these days. Yeah, I wear many hats for sure. Getting the director of film scouting elite prospects announced there earlier this week. That was pretty cool. And it was getting a lot of messages. People asking me, you know, is this a full-time gig?

but now I'm still a school teacher, still working, dober prospects, dauber hockey, doing the podcast. So just, yeah, lots of hats. Well, classes in session today, because you and I are about to do a little bit of a fantasy preview. I'm excited about this. I don't typically spend too much time talking about fantasy on the Hockey P.D. O cast, but obviously now, with it being sort of mid to late September,

I feel like a lot of people who do listen to the show probably are playing in some sort of a league where they play, you know, daily fantasy once the season gets going. or have some sort of a vested interest. But even if anyone out there is listening right now and isn't playing in a fantasy league and doesn't really have much interest in it, I mean, we're going to be talking about, like, players we like and don't like and new situations

and sort of what to look for this season. So I imagine there's going to be something to gain from it, even from people who are necessarily going to be picking these players. Yeah, no, without a doubt, because like you said, it's all about deployment and situations and players in new spots and younger players developing. And so all these things come together, and obviously having a fantasy spin to it is,

is overly interesting for people, especially as draft weekends are pretty much here now. And then next weekend, I'll be doing mine with my buddies anyways, our big one too. So yeah, there's lots of information to be cleaned, even if you're not in a league. What's your history with fantasy? Are you playing in any, like, high stakes or sort of leagues that you're actually, like, very invested in? Or do you just kind of play for fun? Or what's your connection with the fantasy world these days? Yeah, so I've got a long-running keeper league with some buddies, a couple of them that, you know,

I went to elementary junior high with sort of thing and then mixed in with some university buddies and we're on year, gosh, eight maybe for that keeper league and it's high stakes. You know, we've got ourselves a big old trophy named the Kapowski after the great Kelly Kapowski there from Save by the Bell. Pretty decent prize pool.

I'm the reigning champ, so I've got the trophy sitting right next to me right now so it gives me a little extra boost here while we're chatting. I've got a couple other leagues that are, you know, one-year league, some fun stuff, some Vancouver media members and some people on Vancouver, Twitter, connects Twitter accounts there. We got like a 20-man league. And then on my Patreon group, we've got another league too. So, you know, sprinkled in with some fun ones too. Damn, that's busy. I like it. I play a lot of fantasy football. I don't play too much fantasy hockey.

I have a long-standing keeper league like yours with all my high school friends. And we're going on year eight or year nine now, I believe. And it's pretty deep. It's pretty hardcore. There's a lot of trash talk going on. And it's a lot of fun. And it kind of keeps us together. You know, it's funny. last year, I was really all in on the blues in the preseason. I thought that, you know, they were going to have a great year. I really liked all the additions they made in the offseason and how they bolster their team. And so, of course, I just thought they were going to be defensively stingy. I thought they were going to win a lot of games. And so even though I don't like Jake Allen, and I think he's really bad at stopping pucks, I like the situation so much that I really targeted

and invested in Jake Allen and Chad Johnson, thinking that, you know, the blues were going to have a really successful year and those two guys were going to put up great stats for me. And I guess I was right in the sense that the St. Louis Blues were the best team in the league in the second half of the season and won the Stanley Cup. Unfortunately, I didn't have Jordan Bennington. So it didn't ultimately wind up working out for me in that regard. But that's kind of like the roller coaster ride of a fantasy hockey sometimes where it's all about timing and it's all about kind of random luck sometimes, but I think, as we'll hopefully get into in this show, like if the process is sound and you're, you're kind of, you know, pushing all the right strings or pulling all the

strings or you're on top of it and you're sort of targeting certain values, it'll ultimately wind up working out for you in the long run. Yeah, I think so. And, you know, it's funny because I keyed in on St. Louis last year, too, because they do play that stingy defensive game. And, you know, they had some decent players and some nice additions, too. But for me, like, I didn't trust Jake Alan Chad Johnson, but I had Billy Huso as the next in line, right? After he's had such great years in Finland and then he was great in the HAL and then we saw what he did last year. He barely showed up in the American League and Binnington jumped over him and ran all the

way to the cup. So, you know, sometimes you can be all over things and still kind of miss the boat on the next big edition. So on today's show, we're going to be citing a lot of average draft positions, ADPs for certain players just in terms of when we talk about it, if we like a player more than consensus or more than people seem to when they're drafting. We're going to kind of cite that. We're going to use Yahoo's obviously with this being a Yahoo sports podcast.

And then we're also going to cite some of your own personal projections that you have out there that people can get access to while also helping out a good cause. So I'm going to let you plug that a little more towards the end when we do all our plugs in the show. But just so people know, those are kind of the two main reference points for us when we're discussing certain specifics about players we like it don't like. Yeah, sounds good. Okay, you're the guest.

I'll leave the floor open to you. We can take this conversation anywhere you want. We can get into players we like a lot, players we don't, you know, general sort of, a vague outline of sort of what you're trying to accomplish in drafts. You can take this anywhere you want and then I'll go after you. Cool. Yeah, let's start with the positivity anyway. So, you know, how about some guys that we like that maybe are a little off the radar?

and I'll throw the first one that's on my list at you and then you can bounce back to me. And this guy's been getting a lot of ink this year too as a sleeper. So maybe we can't even call them that at this point. But Ruppet Hintz, I like what's going on in Dallas right now. Obviously, they've just been a one-line team for so long, adding Poveski and then the development of hints. I know Corey Perry is there now too, but I also like Dennis Gereanov. They've just got some more options there too. So a lot of people are kind of pegging Pabelsky to just kind of.

kind of line up as that second line center. And I think that that's a possibility for sure. And if that is the case, you know, Hintz looked very good up on the top line with Radulov and Sagan for stretches in the back half last year. So, you know, sign me up for that if he's playing on the top line wing. But otherwise, I think that Hince is going to be their second line winger. And I think it's going to be with Povilski and Ben. I think that they like to keep Radulov and Sagan together.

Obviously, they have the nuclear option as Chicago's been doing for years two where they will put the big three up together. But if that does happen, you're still looking at Hints and Pavelsky as kind of a partnership. So obviously, you know, his, his deployment on that top power play unit is unlikely to come to fruition and that's going to keep that, that glass ceiling on the total points a little bit lower. But last year, you know, his five-on-five shooting percentage was low. His even strength time on ice is going to see a big uptick. I think that this kid is set to put up 50 points and, you know, you know, he could push for even more. So he's, he's got the pedigree. It takes him

historically, you know, a few minutes, a couple of beats to get used to a league and then he takes off. And so that's what I'm looking for this season and else. Yeah, he was certainly on my list as well. I think anyone that watched last year's postseason noticed him whenever you watch a Star's game, he really popped off the page. And, you know, there was a Matt Zicrello effect last year, and that's why I'm pretty high on the stars this year as well, just because the baseline for them to clear was so low in terms of getting help

to kind of give them a little bit of depth and a bit of a balanced scoring attack. And so when they added Matt Zichorello when he came back from injury and they entered the postseason with a more balanced attack, teams couldn't just key in on the one line and it really kind of allowed uh rupe haynes to spread his wings having a talented player like that to play with and i don't really care where he plays in the situation if he plays on the wing on the top line that's obviously great i think he's on the second line and he's centering it and even i think in today's um most recent uh this saturday morning line combinations that they're trotting out there for preseason game i think they have rupe

hints as the second line center with Alex Radulov actually playing with him. And I think Dennis Garianov on the other wing. And that's also an intriguing combination. And I think if he is on that second line, just speaking of deployment, you know, that's going to free up some pretty nice, tasty matchups for him pretty much whoever they play against because you imagine Tyler Sagan's line up top is going to garner a lot of the defensive attention from opposing teams. And then I imagine Montgomery is probably going to want to use Radic Faxa's third line against the other team's best players whenever he can. So that leaves a really cushy opening there for that second line to really feast against secondary and tertiary competition regardless of who they're playing.

And so with his speed and his talent, and as you mentioned, he's kind of historically shown that it takes him a little bit of a while to adjust to new leagues. And then when he does, he really takes his game to another level. I think in this age 22 or 23 season or whatever of his, he could really explode this year. Yeah, for sure. And, you know, he's a big body guy, six foot three, over 200 pounds, too. And traditionally, I find that we see it takes longer for these bigger guys to really hit their true peak, their true ceiling. He's one of those guys, you know, I kind of earmarked 350-ish games, maybe 400 games before you see these big guys really, really step up and hit their true peak. But he's one of these players that I think will kind of bust that mold a little bit. And, you know, he legitimately

has, you know, 70 point upside, I think, with his skill set. A lot of people kind of raise their eyebrows a little bit that he went in the second round in 2015, that, you know, some people liked him in the first, some people liked him in the fourth sort of thing. And I was, I was more leaning towards closer to the first round than the second or third. And so I think, you know, They obviously viewed him as a potential high-impact player, and we're already seeing it come to fruition. Like last year, he was over a point of game in the American League, and he'd only played less than 100 games down there,

and he was already just, he got that adjustment in that first year. He was a point of game. He stepped up and, you know, the points on the stretch, and in the playoffs, he had, what, five goals and eight points and 13 games. Like, that's pretty solid production from a second-line player and staying on that second power play unit. And again, you know, not getting on that top power play, and that's going to hold him back.

And, you know, we could have that conversation about Muriel Hayeskin as well, too, is that a lot of people love Haskinen. I love Hayskinnan as a player. But realistically, if you're not getting that deployment, I say it all the time, is that deployment is king. If you're not getting all the juicy minutes, you're really not going to be able to hit your ceiling at that point. Well, and, I mean, this might seem obvious,

but it really is worth hammering home. Fantasy is all about talent plus opportunity, right? Like, we can love a player's ability and we can kind of, you know, do that hockey Twitter thing where we're like, oh, man, like free this player. He should be playing up higher. He should be getting all these premium minutes. but, you know, coaches are pretty set in their ways,

and they have certain guys they like and don't like and certain favorites they like to play. And as you forecast this, it is going to be really tough for him to break into that absolute kind of highest tier as the way the Dallas stars are constructed right now in terms of getting all of those top minutes. But I still think based on where you're getting him in drafts and sort of how he's flying under the radar still,

despite all of the postseason buzz and despite all the preseason buzz from people like you and I, I still think there is enough room there for him to really exceed his draft capital while still not necessarily hitting that highest gear yet this season. Yeah, exactly. And that's what you're looking for, especially outside of those first few rounds is you're looking for value, right?

So if you screw up your first round pick in one of these drafts, that that's going to set you back a long ways. But most of these leagues are won in the later rounds by mining good value or finding a player off the wire that is overlooked and all of a sudden their deployment has stepped up or their expectations are changed. And so, yeah, for me, a value pick for Hince is that that's going to be looking good outside of that. you know, eight, ninth round sort of thing.

Okay, well, I'll give you another young big body here on my list. Let's go with Andre Svetnikov. You know, he last year had a 6% on ice 515 shooting percentage. He's still, despite out playing under 15 minutes a night and having virtually zero power play production, I believe he had zero power play goals, had a couple assists on there. He still managed 20 goals, 37 points, and nearly 200 shots on goal as an 18-year-old. and, you know, he showed all these flashes throughout the regular season where he'd have this net drive. He'd just put his head down and take the puck to the net or he'd do something just special

where you're like, yeah, a guy this big shouldn't be able to do something that physically gifted and skilled with his hands. And he sort of showed us why he was such a highly regarded prospect and why he went as high in the draft as he did. And then you look at sort of the deployment last year where I think people were pretty frustrated with the fact that he was buried down the depth chart a little bit just because of how deep the hurricanes were, where he was playing with Jordan Martinuk and Lucas Walmark and McGinn. And then now you look ahead and you try to project it. And I don't know exactly how these lines are going to shake out for the hurricanes because they do have so many moving pieces. But I imagine whether it's playing with Ryan Azingle or Erikaala or Martin Natchash or even with Jordan Stahl in a more defensive role, he's going to be playing with more talented

players in higher leverage situations. And I imagine that ice time as well is going to elevate. and so if you kind of pro-rate those stats and you expect that in year or two as he's kind of gotten his footing a little bit and figures out how to use that size even more effectively, I really think the sky's the limit for him. Yeah, absolutely right. I'm a big, big fan of Svetnikov. I've got him on my list here too. I think the key with him is that we're kind of waiting for Martin Nacash to really elevate up and take that second line role. And so I think, you know, for a kid who played as a teenager in the American League for Nekash last year, he was tremendous. I think on a weaker team that he would be given that opportunity to be the second line center. And, you know, talking to Sarah Siv last year is that she's pretty confident that the organization would love to pair those two up and have, you know, Tara Vinen and Ajo as your top line pair.

And then you have Nakesh and Sveshnikov and for teams to try to key in on one of those, that's leaving the other one, some secondary defensive matchups. And they're going to hopefully feast on that. What I'm really looking for is hopefully we're going to see him take that spot on the top power play unit and be utilized in the, in the correct way. So he was on the second unit for much of last year, and they kind of had him in the bumper spot, which is fine. You know,

he's one of these guys that can score goals from anywhere, and he showcased that in juniors that, you know, he can beat you from up high with a quick wrist shot. He's got a nice slap shot, but he also isn't afraid to just get in and power move to the net and get those greasy goals. So I understand that bumper spot net front presence, but I would have him as a trigger man on the wing.

And that's where he, the majority of his goals have come historically. And so if we can see that happen, you know, maybe it's need a writer, Aho and him. and they've got Terabinen on the point with Falk or Gardner or however it shakes out, is that that's going to kind of be that big crux because, like you said, he didn't have any power play goals last year.

And this is a guy that should have, pardon me, several every season. And so another guy that I'm expecting his shot generation to go up, you know, he put up, you know, maybe two and a half last year, I think a little less than that. I'm thinking that, you know, pushing three is realistic this year. He clicked at 10%. I think that he's one of these guys that could live in the 1213 range. So, you know, 30 goals this season seems very. doable especially if he's on that top unit and then i think the future holds with him and nacash is

very high for both those players well there's a couple of these teams whether it is um you know the keralina hurricanes or the biggest golden nights although it seems like with their forwards you're going to have to pay more of a premium because they're kind of household names already but there's a few of these teams that i expect to also be playing kind of more up-tempo sort of frenetic high-paced hockey which we saw them play last year and so i think that really favors some of these guys like so that Nickov and, you know, we can talk a bit more about need on needer rider who's also on my list and so on and so forth, where I just want as many shares of these guys as I can, especially with how late you can get them in drafts, because we still need to sort of see how the lineup combinations really form and sort of how they're deployed and who

they're playing with and who's on the top power play. But since you're not really paying much draft capital for these guys, I just want to load up on as many of them as I can and see how it works out. And then if you have to wind up dropping them eventually because it didn't pan out, that's okay, because you didn't really invest that much into them. No, exactly. And so when you're, you know, when we're looking at forwards and defensemen, you want to grab players from teams that are going to play that high tempo and try to outscore their defensive issues. And then conversely, when you're looking at netminders, like we were talking about with St. Louis, you want to grab a netminer from a team that's going to be stingy and not trying to outscore their opponents. So, you know, we can talk about Connor Hellbuck later in the day here is that their defense in Winnipeg looks decimated now. And all of a sudden, he's gone from a guy who looked like a lock for 35, 37 wins that, you know, Winnipeg better score four goals a night if that's going to happen now, too.

Well, it's weird with, I quickly mentioned either or just while we're on the hurricane. his ADP's 173, and it seems like, I don't know what's going on there in terms of, I think, maybe whether it's with people's projections or whether it's when people are doing their research, they're sort of looking at his full season stats last year, and they're kind of suppressed a little bit because of his slow start with Minnesota. But, I mean, he just prorate his performance with Hurricanes when he came and started playing and riding shotgun with Sebastian Ajo for an 82 game base. I mean, he was a 32-goal, 70.20-40 shot guy playing over 8.000.

18 minutes. And there's no Justin Williams right now, and he might come and rejoin this team at some point, but at least to start the year, that really also secures his spot on that top line wing next to Ajo, because it really does feel like they're going to go with some combination, probably of Ajo, neither-eyed or tear a vinyan to start, and then you're going to go with, you know, Dzingo and Speschenikov and so on and so forth down in the second and third lines. And so I feel very secure about his spot. And anyone that playing with Sebastian Ajo, it seems like he has reached that sort of rare tier. of player and playmaker where whoever's playing with him, he's good enough to basically

vault that guy up to a higher level than he would have been otherwise. And I think, you know, you and I both believe that Nader Rider is a good player in his own right. And when he gets to play with the playmaker like Ajo, we see the sort of results that he had last year. And I see no reason why that can't continue a year or two with the hurricanes. No, you're absolutely right. And this is a guy who had, you know, terrific pedigree coming into the league of fifth overall pick.

Obviously, the Islanders had zero patience for him. And then Minnesota kind of sold a little low, too. So he's rated in a statistical prime kind of pushing towards the tail end of it at 27 right now. But like he said, you know, when he came to Carolina, he produced. So, you know, 33 points in the back 40-odd games there. His shot generation, he was putting up, you know, over three shots a game. Seeing that power play. I'm with you.

I think that his deployment is as safe as you can hope for on a team like this. And it's the team that I'm projecting to score a lot of goals. And so, you know, Terabine and now they're going to go early in in drafts. You may, you're not really sure who's going to be that top line power play guy on the back end. So, you know, it's Falk, it's Hamilton, it's Gardner. Those guys are going to slide down just because you're unsure, but it's players like Niederrider that you're going to get great value from. And so I think he said he's 172.

So that's, you know, you're pushing like 15th round there. Yep. I'd be, you know, loving it if I can grab him in the 15th round. I think any time after that 12th round, he would be a terrific ad, especially in leagues that are grabbing hits and shots. And this is a guy that historically lives in the low teens shooting percentage-wise and can put up two and a half shots a game and, you know, can push 100 plus hits. He's good on your power play. He's across the board for a multi-cap player.

He's got the size. He's got the speed. I love Carolina. I've already put my money on them as preseason favorites for the Cup. So I'm on board with you there. Yeah, but I think they're like their odds are ridiculous. I'm like 28 to 1 or something to win the Stanley Cup, which is not in line. But like I compare them a lot to a team like the abs.

I've talked about how they're like the East and West versions of each other. I think the abs are a 12 to 1 or something. or something like that. So there's a bit of an imbalance there still in terms of people catching up how good the hurricanes are and how legit last year was. But no, you're right. And for people that, you know, go like, oh, like everyone's kind of already clued in on sort of shooting percentage variations and fluctuations and you can't really extract value there, just look at neat on either rider's career and the two times he's been traded and what happened with his on ice percentages at that point and sort of how his team sold exceptionally low for basically pennies on the dollar.

So, and that applies to fantasy hockey as well. I think people, as rational as you think you may be, if a guy gets off to a hot start or a guy had a really down year last year and his numbers look bad, it can be tough to sometimes pull the trigger because you really just kind of buy into what you've seen most recently and it's easier so than done. But if you take a big picture of view of it and you sort of think, okay, realistically, how replicable is this? And sort of unless something structurally changed, why is this happening?

You can often get a lot of value there. no for sure we all want to buy low and sell high but in the moment when you're looking at a player who's struggling mightily you're like do i really want to buy on this player and the same thing is you you've got the hot ticket and everybody comes knocking for him but even selling high at that point you're like well maybe there could be more to come so trusting what your eyes see versus trusting what the numbers are seeing too or it can be a big difference from time to time and so you just kind of have to look at those just in real life like that's kind of the whole fun of this right is that you're you're trying to be a real GM and and we all have our opinions on

all these gems for all the moves they make and all the money they spend it, you feel like you could probably do better. And so in fantasy hockey, you get that chance. But when the chips are down, sometimes it's harder than it seems. Yeah. All right. Who's next on your list? All right.

Let's take a look here. But we talk about Phil Peronick. Ooh. I have him on my list as a lay fire. Yeah. Yeah, nice. You know, so the kid's 21. He's played barely 100 games in the American League.

And the whole time, he's playing over a 50-point pace on the back end there. 16 points in the final 28 games playing over 22 minutes a night in that final quarter for Detroit. So, you know, the issue is the ghost of Mike Green is still around the rep thinks there. And Jeff Blash Hill, you know, do you trust him to wheel out, Veronica right off the get-go on that top power playing it? No. You know, I'm not sure. So I think that there's a good chance that we see it kind of split up a little bit. I'm sure they want to see what Heronic can do.

But Green is going to get injured or he's going to falter. and then I think that role is going to come to erronek. And so this is a guy that maybe people are a little bit higher on because of the final stretch there. So maybe someone jumps a little bit earlier in the draft and you miss out on him. But if he's not on that top power play unit, maybe that's an opportunity for you to buy low on a player. So I like what's going on in Detroit. You know, I think Larkin's a real deal.

I think Manta takes another step and probably has another step or two coming in future seasons. If you're in a keeper league, you know, Zadina's coming, Valeno's coming. They have some really interesting pieces in Detroit. And that top power play unit is going to be good for a lot of. a lot of years, and I think that's going to be Hieronix job. You know, I think that he could go off for 40, 45 points this year, and then we could be looking at 50,

55 coming in future seasons. Certainly, I mean, he's one of those guys that's shown wherever he's played, he's produced, and I like that as a barometer for guys. It makes me feel more comfortable that he's going to do it at the NHL level as well. Obviously, it's in a different animal, but he's shown so far in a limited sample whenever he's

gotten the opportunity that he's made the most of it. And I like also targeting in fantasy sentence, I know it's not like the sexy thing. Like we talk about the hurricanes, for example, and it's like a lot of people are in on them. And so, you know, their players get talked up because they're going to be the talk of the league

and they're going to be winning a lot. And so they're going to be on the highlights and you want to have those guys. But I think there's a lot of value to be had in good players on bad teams or players that you believe are going to be put in a position to succeed statistically on bad teams. And so, you know, you mentioned Larkin there. And I still think, last I checked his current ADP was like 127 or something.

And that's crazy to me. I mean, he's behind Jack Hughes. And listen, I love Jack Hughes. But that's a classic example of sort of the hype of the unknown where everyone, no one's going to be like, ooh, nice pick when you take Dylan Larkin because it's as crazy as it sounds considering how young he is, he's already been around the league. And the Red Wings don't have a lot of hype, whereas Jack Hughes is number one overall pick and the devils with all the moves they made, everyone's going to want a piece of that.

But you look at Larkin last year and, you know, he was top 40 in both goals and points. He was top 10 in shots. He was top 10 in ice time amongst forwards, and he was playing nearly 22 minutes a night, and I think that McDavid and Dreisdell were the only forwards that played more than him at 5-1-5. And so the Red Wings really are pretty barren, especially down the middle, as their main roster is currently constituted. And so they kind of, by necessity, just basically have to go, okay, Lark and Mantha, get out there as much as you can, and as much as your bodies can hold up for. And we saw that last year where they just basically wrote him, and he clearly performed and produced,

and look great doing so, and I don't see any reason why that's going to change this year. So I think his volume is going to be so extreme that maybe if you still play for some reason in a plus minus league, that'll look a bit ugly. But otherwise, I think, you know, especially with the shots and the points and the ice time, like it's going to be so high that it's crazy that he's going this late in draft. Yeah, that's insane. I'm looking at the ADPs here too. And, you know, they've got Marcia So and Pavelski and these guys that are, you know,

the center rating and shalmonahan leis lindholm all all getting drafted ahead of them and for me that that's just nuts so like you said everything's kind of in line for him he gets all the prime ice he shoots the pocket ton you know like are we going to be surprised if he plays 22 and a half minutes this year in all situations and three minutes on that top power play unit like i'm not and and i don't think by any means that that 73 points and 76 games is is going to be an aberration or going to be a career high because all the metrics they appear you know pretty solid his shooting percentage is right in line is five-on-five shooting percentages, you know, it was a touchdown from

the year before. You know, he's not seeing a ton of offensive zone start, so he's just over 50%. So all these situations is that he's going to be leaned on a little bit to play some defensive minutes for them too, but if they want any production, it's going to be coming from him and him from his line. And like he said, that a lot of these teams like Colorado and Carolina

and Winnipeg and the, you know, Washington that have the big power plays and they have the big names, they're going to go early and often. But these teams like Detroit, Vancouver's got some interesting players this year too, that traditionally kind of bad teams the last few years, there's going to be great opportunities for players to step up and take those minutes. And that's what matters, right?

Getting those minutes. Yeah. Well, speaking again, those minutes, let me give you a name that's on my list here that I like. Victor Olifson. So the Sabres are, for my money, incredibly thin on the wing still, even after signing Marcus Johansson. You know, Olifson, another one of those guys who's produced at every level he's played at.

And in 2017, 18, he had 27 goals and 50 SHL game. In 2018, 19, the following year, he had 30 goals in 66 AHL games. And last year, I believe he was, you know, a point of game or whatever in the HAL. And then when he got called up for a late season cameo, he had six points and 21 shots and six games and played riding shotgun with Eicholin Skinner. And at least for the time being, I imagine they do want to split those lines up a little bit and give Casey Middle stat a bit of a life raft with Sam Reinhardt.

So I think on occasion, they're going to load up their top line with those top three players. But I think they do still want to play Reinhart on that second line to give. get them a bit more of a balanced attack. And so the big beneficiary there, I think at least for the time being, is Olofson and we'll see if you can stick. But that's one of those cases where I think whoever plays with Skinner and Eichel just by sort of default of being on ice with them is going to get a lot of production. And he seems to be a legitimate player in his own right. So I know he's a bit of an older prospect, but I do still like his situation. I'm not sure where he's going in drafts, but I can't

imagine just by the fact that, you know, he's a bit of a lesser heralded prospect. And he is playing the Buffalo Sabres. He's not necessarily a guy. People are coveting. So I like targeting that situation as well. No, I think you're, I think you're spot on there. This guy's a finisher, right? He's been throughout his career. And like you said, that often these rookies that everyone pays attention to are 18, 19 years old. And that's great. Some of them can step in and be of Leis Pedersen and go off for 65 plus points or what Jack Hughes or Capo's going to do. But you're going to pay a premium and you're going to leave some established talent on the board to go out and reach on those players. But a guy like Olson, who's 24 years old, a bit unheralded

despite having the numbers in the lower tier leagues, in the feeder leagues. And then I think you're right. I think this is a type of player that they would love to put on that top line and have him be a trigger man. You know, that's with Skinner Eichl and Olson, that's three players that could legitimately score 30 goals at some point if Oof and everything breaks right. But the thing too is that he's not all that defensively sound.

So you don't have to worry about him getting buried in his own zone or, you know, seeing 40% offensive zone start times like he had in a small sample there 60% of his shift started in the offensive zone and I'm sure the coaching staff is going to try to insulate him and keep him in those situations. And then, you know, I think he's either in your top six or he's not in the league. And so this is a player that's shown capable of producing at high levels in the American League. It's a team that needs more goals.

They need to spread out that scoring that it just makes too much sense to keep him in that top six. And so even if he does slide down and plays with Casey Middlestadt, another player I think people are sleeping on. He had all the hype coming in. And now even after just a single season, he seems like that post-high hype sleeper already, who I expect to take a step forward. And I think he has a lot of skills as a setup man to set up a player like Olson.

So I think his position is pretty sound there at five on five. Obviously, playing on that second power play. And it's going to be like we can say it. Just keep that every time we talk about a second power play. And it's going to diminish their true overall value. But at the same time, you know, there could be worse units, you know, playing with a guy like middle stat and shiri. And then on the back end, you're looking at Ristaline and then maybe a brand him on tour

or someone like that too. So there's worse situations. I mean, you'd probably only see 90 seconds night on that unit. But, yeah, no, I'm with you. I think this is a kid that could step in and score 20 plus goals and, you know, push 45, 50 points, especially if he stayed on that top line. All right, give me another name.

Let's go down the list. How about Devin Taves? You're just nailing all the guys on my list, hey. We probably have the same list. You know, Barry Trots, he appears to love this guy. So, you know, he worked his way up through the season, worked up the depth chart, and on that power play, He was playing two minutes of power play per night for a while.

And then in those, you're up to over three minutes in the playoffs where he put up five points in eight games. You know, he's able to shoot the puck with some frequency there over two shots per game. You know, the Islanders, their top power playing, it isn't as tasty without John Tvar's around. And we knew that was going to happen. And we knew it was going to be, there was going to be some stumbles and some hiccups as they adjusted through that.

But I think that, you know, Matt Barzell reasserts himself as a premier distributor in the league this year. You know, Anders Lee remains an elite net. front guy who, you know, he scored 40 in the past. I think he's a safe bet for 30. It could be a worse, there could be worse spots for him. And, you know, we've, we've just kind of defunct, or just landed on Nick Letty to be their top guy for so many years. It's just kind of happened that way that nobody really wants it to be him. You know, we've looked at Ryan Pallock over the years and waited for him and his big shot. But I really think that Devon Taves is going to get a chance to take that job and run

with it for a while. And if that's the case, you know, this is a guy that many people are probably sleeping on in a big, big way that could be top power play defensemen. There's only 31 of those in the league usually. Maybe a couple of teams will run the 3 plus two, but that's kind of a foregone thing now. I like Taves to push 40 plus points if he can live in that spot. I do too. I think he's an incredibly talented player, and he gives the New York Islanders a level of dynamic play that they need from that blue line and sort of a playmaker for them that can kind of help

generate a bit of instant offense for them that they don't have throughout the lineup. And so they're also a team that are, especially in the blue line, it's a situation I'm wondering because they have a bit of a logjam in terms of the players they have there. And it's a league right now where there's a lot of teams that don't have enough defensemen and they're kind of rumored in a lot of trades. And potentially Nick Letty could be out of the door or some of these other guys they have. But the one name I feel very comfortable saying, we'll be on the Honders for sure, will be Devonte's.

And so even if they make one of those trades, that'll benefit in because that'll open the door for a little bit more ice time for him. And I always worry in these sort of Barry Trots teams and especially a guy with his skill set where they might not fully sort of take the training wheels off of him and really just let him soar. But I do think that especially for where you're getting in the drafts, it is kind of worth a late round lottery ticket because you could be a special player. No, for sure.

Because like you're saying, when you get to the tail end of the draft, you're picking up, you know, a defenseman that maybe can fill out some categories for you. if it's a roto league and it's multi-category or you're hoping a prayer on a young player like I'm Bouchard, maybe he can come in and steal that top PP job. But you know, you could be sitting there and there's a player that maybe he doesn't have a gift wrapped or, you know, chiseled in a stone, but a very good shot at being that top power play guy

and has experience there and shown that he can produce those numbers. And like you said, he can create offense for them from the back end. And that's something that their defensive core has lacked for a lot of years. Okay, let's take a quick break here to hear from a sponsor. and then we're going to keep going with our list and other things. Sponsoring today's episode of the Hockey P.D.O. cast is Seatkeek. If for whatever reason you've hauled out until now and haven't been able to give Seekykeke a shot for all your ticketing needs,

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through here. Yeah, sure. I'm just kind of going down my list here. So I got, yes, for Brat next. Okay. Yeah, I got, yeah, I can run out a whole bunch of you on. Let's talk about the devils a little bit. Yeah.

So, I mean, I didn't have Brad on my list, but I did have Gusev on my list. and I had a listener question here. And so they're obviously a very trendy team. I'm working on my watchability rankings for this season, and the Devils are probably as high as the Devils I've ever been just because of the intrigue of, you know, you're presumably you're getting Taylor Hall back now

when he's in a contract year, and it's not too far removed from being the most valuable player in the league. And you're getting P.K. Suban in with a lot to prove that he still has it. After the down year, he had in Nashville, and you draft Jack Hughes, and people want to see how NHL ready is. And then you get Nikita Gusev. You have Wayne Simmons coming in on a one-year sort of prove-it deal for it to show

someone that they should pay him and he still has a bit of juice left in tank. And so you have all these guys coming in and then with a talent already in place with the Kyle Palmyries and Nico Hish years and the sort of up-tempo system that John Hines ideally wants to play. There's a lot of stuff to like there. And we'll see how it all plays out. But Gusev, you know, he has an ADP of 167 now. And I think people are still a bit unsure in terms of how a player's numbers from overseas translate,

especially at this point of their career. And I think a lot of people were probably burned by Vadim Shippechev a couple years ago. And especially people like me who in their keeper league targeted him instead of Genned Dadaunov. And so I'm a big believer in Gusev and in his talent. And he showed on the international scene that he can play with the best players in the world than just sort of his production in the KHL. Like if it was good, that'd be one thing, but just how good it was in comparison

to especially some names that we know from their time in the NHL, I feel very comfortable saying he's going to step in right away and produce. And so this Devils team all of a sudden has at least two or three scoring lines filled with a bunch of interesting games. No.

Yeah, you're spot on. From my notes here for Gusev, I got people can talk about Shippeepishav all they want, you know, and they can ramble on that Gusef hasn't proven anything in the NHL yet. But I'm fully convinced that this guy's going to just, feast in New Jersey that his skill set is just supreme and he's the skills that he have are in demand

so he's got speed he's got he's got the quick hands he's got the nice release he can distribute the puck the awareness on the ice and then you couple that with like you said all those players that are being playing in New Jersey um so you know I think that there's a good chance that him and jack hughes are kind of linked up as a as a pair on that second line um in early preseason action we've seen kind of goose have got half his time with his year half his time with hughes um so maybe he's isolated from Taylor Hall at even strength, but they're all going to play together on that top power play unit. And so, you know, you were talking about Wayne Simmons. I'm sure the devil's brought him in to add a little bit of sandpaper in that top six. And I think that's probably who starts out on the second line right wing. But can he keep up anymore speedwise? And especially with two players like Gooseh, if that's how it lands.

It's, you know, and can he stay healthy? I have my doubts. And so in which case, then we can look at the, you know, a Jesper Brat, who I think has pretty. produced in smaller samples, and he's a speedy, skillful player that, you know, maybe that line doesn't have enough meat for your traditional lineup card, but put them together and they could just be a bunch of waterbugs out there creating and producing a lot of offense. And so I love what's going on with New Jersey these days, too. I'm buying hard. You know, another player we haven't mentioned yet is Ty Smith, who I think would have been in line to steal that top power plate job as a defenseman as a rookie this year if it wasn't P.K. Suban, but he's a type of player that could be, you know, slide into a second unit and producing at five on five a little bit and just generating,

just generating chances and getting that puck up and out and transitioning it in a hurry. And that's what you need to see. And that's what was missing a little bit there too. You know, they had Sammy Batten and they had Will Butchre. But those guys are, they're one dimensional in the sense that they can create a little bit and they have the good feet. But I think that Ty Smith and P.K. Suban just elevate that group just so much more. And then, you know, even Jasper Bowkwis is a nice addition. So he's a young player that, you know, another skillful young player that's going to be coming in and pushing for a spot.

and you know it's probably bratt and bockwith's been with zajack in the middle and so that'll be kind of a weird third line i wouldn't call that a checking line by any sense but zajax not definitely a not a real creator play creator out there but like you said the watchability for this team is going to be very very high it's it's going to be a team that people are reaching for it and at the sense that you know they're going to reach for hughes they're going to reach for hall i think nico hishers the guy that's going to slip down a little bit as people project hughes to steal that number one job right away and it's easy to forget the first overall pick and he's just 20 years old that I've got him on my list here too that I think that his numbers are set to

kind of jump out as well yeah no this team is loaded with um intriguing talent and you know I don't know if from a fantasy perspective the volume of last year is going to be there just because of all these new names that are coming in and the health they have heading into this season for a guy like blake Coleman and miles wood but they also have that sort of speed um and sort of i guess that element of sandpaper that you're talking about with simmons where they're going to fit nicely into this team and sort of their identity of just being really difficult to play against and skating incredibly hard and fast. And so I'm really looking forward to watching them. And if you're a bit still gun shy about it and you don't want to pay that premium or you don't want to buy in the hype on those

top two guys, I love targeting the Gusev's and the brats of the world to try and get a piece of them here, assuming that they're going to play in the top six and play with those great players without having to pay the price that you're paying for the other guys. Absolutely. Yeah. So the fears of Gusev, I think, are still there that it's going to keep him down draft boards a lot. little bit and and I see little reason to expect him not to hit 60 points this year. And, you know, he could walk in and he could have a Panarin like first season and he's older and he sees a little more experienced too. And I think that he will, there might be, there might be some hiccups early on in the season

as he adjust to the ice and to the speed. But, but no, I've got him penciled down. Actually, I should pull him up on my rankings and see what I've got him here as on my projections. I've got him up for 24 goals and 61 points and 74 games. So, you know, missing a few games there, too, as we often see from rookie players, even the older ones. But, you know, that's over point A to game sort of thing. And if you can get that a little bit later in the draft, that that's going to provide some nice value. Absolutely.

Okay, there's two situations that I'm monitoring and I'm interested in. They're for wildly different reasons. But I'll start off with the ducks here. And I'm really interested in them because I don't think they're going to be very good this year, although I do think, as we've seen years past, I don't know how bad they're going to be from a win-loss perspective, just because John Gibson's going to keep them. in so many games, but it seems like they really have embraced this youth movement, right? They buy out Corey Perry.

They still obviously have Ryan Gatz off there. But for the most part, this is all of a sudden a pretty young team, unproven team that can skate. And I do love the hiring of Dallas Aiken's here because of his connection with a lot of these players in the HL playing with San Diego. And so whether it's Sam Steele or Troy Terry or Max Comtois, and then we can get into obviously Raquel and Andrei Kasha as well, but I don't know how it's going to play out, what these lines are going to look like, who's going to be deployed how, but I do believe that this is a situation where no one's really excited about the ducks and no one's really targeting

them, but there's enough young talent here and with the coach in place that is presumably empowered to, you know, live with these growing pains and not necessarily try to squeeze out as many wins as he can right out of the gate and really embrace this full process. I think there's going to be a lot of fantasy goodness here to be gained, even if it comes in losing efforts, just because there aren't too many players ahead of them on the depth chart. No, I think you're spot on. The lines will probably be in a blunder for the entirety of the season.

You know, I kind of hope that maybe they wheel out something like a steel comtois Terry line or maybe they just partner up Raquel with Sam Steele. I think that we're hoping that Ryan Gatslaff can find a little more juice in the tank and maybe him and Andres Cassia come together. You know, everything that could be said about Casha has been, you know, the guy's an elite shot generator. The thing is that he just needs to stay healthy. And if he can, I think 30 goals and 60 points is totally doable,

especially if Getslaff can maintain that puck possession and that distribution game. But, you know, we didn't talk about Max Jones. They got Devin Shore. Daniel Sprong is probably going to be on this team. Nick Ritchie, like this, that's a bunch of U-23, U-24 guys that are going to be littered across this lineup. up. And like he said, Dallas Eakins, that's kind of his mandate is that he's a young player coach that he can relate to these guys. He has the experience with them down in San Diego.

What Troy Terry did down there last year as a HL rookie, you know, putting up a point of game, I thought was tremendous. And then he looked good for half a season in Anaheim as well, too. So I think it's going to be difficult for them to score a ton of goals throughout the year just because you're not going to be able to really line up a powerful top line that that team's going really look at, but if you can spread it out, I think that there'll be some drips and drabs of some nice offense. And then, like you said, John Gibson is probably their best player. He is their best player, but he's probably their best fantasy asset as well, as long as they can, they can play stingy enough defense in front of him. And, you know, they've got Hamas Lindholm, they've got Josh

Manson, who's still a really strong player. I think Camp Fowler is kind of that de facto top power play guy, which is, you know, not great for that top unit there either. But like he said, there's a lot of young players and something that they can look towards building towards in the future, or two, especially for a keeper leagues. You know, I'm a big Troy Terry guy. I think that he's, he's that young piece that I would be want to lock into if I'm in a points only league. And then, you know, maybe Max Comtoff, we're looking at some bangers.

Yeah. Well, I just like how they've, like, it seems like there's actually like a plan here in place all of a sudden and they're moving in the right direction. They're not just kind of holding on to that old core that they had. And, you know, we saw from Sam Steele, I bet Troy Terry had an awesome year in the HL and he had some growing pains in the NHL when he came over as expected. Sam Steele sort of started the year to just. out of necessity because they had so many injuries out of the gate and he really struggled and then

he went away for a while and and when he came back uh he produced it into the year and rick or rickle is a really interesting to player to me because he's one of these guys where he like got better better every year and i think he even had a couple back-to-back 30 goal seasons and seemed like he was going to be a lock to be that consistent goal producer and then now at 26 years old everyone's kind of just sort of writing him off and forgetting about him or kind of viewing him as the sort of old beard on this team but i mean he had a year from hell where he just couldn't buy a goal for pretty much the first like 70 games and then he scored seven of his 18 goals in the final seven games he still wound up shooting under 10% for the season and he's a consistent shot generator

as well so i think that they're going to rely on him quite a bit whether it's down the middle or on the wing uh he's definitely going to be in the top power play they're going to be using him in every situation they can and so he seems like a guy that from a volume perspective at least for this year could be really overlooked. And then a lot of these other guys are sort of a wait-and-see approach, and especially if you're in a long-term dynasty or keeper league, you keep an eye on them because there could be something special forming here, maybe two or three years down the road.

Yeah, without it out. With Raquel, it's funny. He seems to do well at the tail end. The back quarter, back half seems to be his time to shine. And like he said, he had a very difficult season, you know, scoring five goals in the first 30 games or so or whatever it was there and just not being able to generate the shots at the same level that he historically had. And then in the back half, he ramped it up,

even though his deployment stayed the same. And, you know, like he said, he shot under 10%, 9%, 9% there. And this is a guy that should realistically live in the, you know, 12 to 15 range. He's clicked on a full season at 18 and a half percent. So he's a proven finisher. And like he said, at 26 years old, like this is the meaty part of his statistical prime. And the thing is, is that does he have the center that can create the space for him to finish? So if that's Sam Steele, that's great.

At this point, it's tough to kind of put that burden onto a young player like him. And so now we're, again, we're hoping for Ryan Gets left. to kind of find some old magic. And I think that, you know, I think Getslaff in a situation like Joe Thornton's been in on if he was on a really deep team and he could play kind of in a lesser role in the bottom end of that top end of that top nine and kind of work without facing top defensive matchups that that gets off could really be an interesting player still that could produce some points and rack up the assists and really help out some of his wingers. But he's probably going to be viewed as the top line center when when teams are coming into town. And so that's going to that's going to put those matchups against him. And if Raquel's with him, then that's probably going to hurt him a little. little bit as well. But, you know, 18 goals last season. I think that's an aberration. I've got him down for,

you know, 25 anyways on a week Anaheim squad. And if he went out in Pop 30 again next year, I wouldn't blink an eye. Yeah, that's a good, that's a really good comparison to the Joe Thornton thing. I hope there's one more chapter in Ryan Gatslap's career where maybe in a couple of years here, assuming he's still on the team, assuming his body still holds up. And some of these prospects really pan out and give them a bit of a sort of top six nucleus that he can sort of have that one last ride where he's just an awesome sort of veteran that is just feasting in in third line minutes and doing a lot of stuff on the power play for them yeah for sure because that's where he traditionally has feces especially on the powerplay so if they can get that top power play going you know

that big body has got the long reach and he's the mind is still there the soft touch is there the skating's what's been slowing down and so yeah definitely if they can if they can get that power play moving and shaking in the right direction you know he could still have some value this season but i'm with you i'd love to see a late late career heyday for gettslap and maybe the ducks can push push forward with this young core because that's what we want to see, right? We want to see teams embracing the youth and the skill and then witnessing success so that other teams mimic them because, as we see, it's a copycat league. And so if the bangers go out there and win a cup, then all of a sudden we've got a bunch

of tight checking games the next season. The other situation that I had monitoring here was the Columbus Blue Jackets. And obviously, whenever you lose as much name brand talent as they did with Matt Dushan and Sergey Bobrovsky and Alvius Ertmian, heading out the door, I think a lot of people are off with them now and just expecting them to completely bottom out. But obviously the star power isn't there, especially up front. You know, with Werenzky and Jones, they have a lot to build around on the back end. Up front, there's a lot of question marks. But whether it's Emil Bamstrom who led the S.HL.

in goals as a 19-year-old last year and completely just eviscerated the world juniors, or Alexander Texier, who's also one of those guys that's produced at every single level. Or Josh Anderson, who's constantly one of the league's sort of most unheralded and best goal and Shaw producers at 5-1-5. You go on down the line, you know, Boone-Gener, potentially, so on and so forth. I think there's a lot of depth here and a lot of guys that can just play,

and I'm really curious to see how this Blue Jacket season unfolds from the perspective of whether they can sort of, they're being overlooked, but maybe there's just such a level of depth there and such a sort of identity in place in terms of guys who all sort of play a similar game and can be really feisty and annoying to play against where they could surprise people and be a lot better

than I think people are expecting them to be. I'm with you on that for sure. I think that everyone's kind of writing them off because of the exodus of talent there. And that's fair. Obviously they push their chips in. Yarmal Kiglainen, he showed the brass and decided to hold on. Because, you know, he could have pulled in some nice pieces there from Panarin. I'm not sure about Bobrovsky because, you know, any contending team that doesn't have a goaltender is probably not a contending team at the deadline.

But, you know, I'm a big fan of Alexander Texier. What he did last season was very, very impressive as a 19-year-old. the kid just turned 20 a couple of days ago, but put up nearly a point of game in the league crossed over, put up a point of game, five goals in seven games there, in the HL jumped up and then looked quality in the National League too.

And so, you know, that's something, that's something for a kid that, you know, a French kid too from France that it's unheard of, I would say. And so I think that he's the guy. I like Emil Bemstrom too. I thought he was tremendous in Sweden last year. I loved him at the World Juniors. You know, his game was popping out.

But I think we see TXier, rolling up there with Pierluke Dubois and Cam Atkinson and I think that that's a reasonable top line. I think PLD takes a step forward, big center with the proven talent, he's got the pedigree. I think he takes another step forward developmentally. And then, you know,

someone that kind of got forgot about is Alexander Wenberg, who his game has just fallen off a cliff a little bit, but it has also coincided with his deployment dropping down. And so all of a sudden we're looking at him probably suiting up with maybe Gus Nyquist and all for Bjork Strand, who I've been high on for a lot of years, just kind of waiting for him to hit his stride, and I think this year he'll get those top deployments.

And then as he said, you know, Josh Anderson's great. Boone Jenner's great. Nick Folino, that's a heavy third line that can generate offense, that can hem teams in. And then you're looking at probably Emil Bemstrom just hanging out on that fourth line or down in the top line in the American League. But whenever you can roll out Zach Wrenski and Seth Jones

for 30 minutes a night, that's not going to hurt. I'm a big fan of Marcus Nadvara. So I think that they have some really interesting pieces. And then, of course, in net, too, right? Like, what's going to happen there? Is it going to be Eunice Carpissolo? Is it going to be Elvis Mers Lincoln's? I think they'll probably share to start out the season.

But I like Elvis. I think he's in the building and I think he's going to take the jobs. He's been great internationally. He's been great in his club teams over in Europe. He's an older rookie, too. So that's a player that I'm another one that I'm looking at late in drafts as a sneaky third goalie that could take over the starting role. And what I expect a team that's going to probably push for a playoff spot,

a wild card spot and maybe miss out, but they're going to be in the race for a lot of the season. Yeah, and I love the vote of confidence of they're basically like, we're just going to go in with these two guys and we'll see how it goes and we'll adjust accordingly. But it would have been a bit disappointing for me if they went out and got that sort of like just generic veteran goalie because you need that sort of experience to give you 25 to 30, safe, but incredibly underwhelming starts. It really does seem like they're just going to go with those two guys and embrace it and see how this year it goes.

and I sort of love that attitude and that perspective. And I'm much higher on Columbus than I think consensus is. I am a bit worried about the top guys in Atkinson and Dubot, just because there are numbers without Panarin, albeit in a limited sample size because those three guys were glued together for so long, were so poor last year. And that would just make sense from how good of a possession player Panarin is and how much of the ice he opens up for the guys around him,

especially for a guy like Atkinson who wants to just hang out and shoot. And so I am. imagine there's going to be a bit of an adjustment there, but you're right. If a guy like TechC.A. is able to slot in there and take the next step and prove that he's the real deal, then I don't think the drop off is going to be that seismic. No, I don't see Atkinson scoring 40 goals again. You know, I think he's probably a safe bet to score 30 next season. And then, yeah, it's losing Artemis Panarin.

It's going to hurt for sure. And like you said, Atkinson, he's a finisher, but he's not necessarily a driver of play in all situations. He's not going to be able to create for himself all the time. And so that's when we're looking at Dubois to, really take a next step in his development. And, and, you know, for a big player, he's one of these ones like I talk about it. It usually takes a little bit longer, but, you know, he's just turned 21 and he already put up, you know, he was paced at what he, 60 plus points last season, a nice

step forward after the 48 is a rookie. So another player that I think he's going to take more of a, more of a role as a shooter. I think we see his shot rates go up. Another guy that I think can finish at a high rate. He hits. He blocks some shots. He takes faceoffs. He wins face offs too. So I think that that's going to happen a little bit more for me. He's going to win some more faceoffs in these multi-cat leagues. But, you know, I haven't penciled in for 30 goals next year. I think Atkinson's going to get 30 goals next year. So there's going to be, there's going to be some goals going around in that top six and then that heavy third line, you know, Josh Anderson, like he said, he's underrated for his shot generation in the way that he can finish and get

into those greasy areas. And so it's going to be scoring by committee a little bit. And then I think a lot falls on to Wenberg. Is that can he refine his game? Can he maybe match up with fell sweet, I guess Nyquist there and him and Bjorksend and those guys kind of as a flashy second line because Nyquist and Bjorks are in their shooters and Wenberg's a pure passer. So if they can click, then they might have something going on. If Wemberg falters, then you're moving Ben, Boon Jenner up and you're kind of mixing and matching a little bit. And I think things could go off the rails quickly at that point because then you can just key in on that top line and then all bets are off. Yeah. Well, the opportunity is certainly there. And I think we like

the individual talent. So we'll see if there's a nice marriage between those two, but I'm optimistic. Let's do a couple more names we like before we get into some listener questions and guys we don't like. For sure. I like Kevin LeBonk, the bank. Yeah, I think that he's a high quality player in all situations, and he's a late bloomer to boot, so I love rooting for those underdog guys. You know, the top line is coming.

He's going to see three to four more minutes per game. A little bit of that's going to be on the power play too, but most of it's going to come at even strength. And I think that if he just kept pace with what he did last year, which I would consider a modest expectation as developmentally, he's going to take another step forward. He would have pushed up for 70 points, last year with those additional minutes.

So getting on to that top power play unit, that's going to be the big question mark is, you know, does San Jose split up, Burns and Carlson, and run a 4 plus 1? They're probably the only team in the league that I'm okay with running a two defenseman top unit because obviously you want to have those, those guys out there for the full two minutes, but we'll see.

If they run a 4 plus 1, I think LeBank gets up there. If not, then he's off to the second unit, and it's going to be a little more difficult for him to hit those super high notes. But he was very productive last. year you know he was top 35 in points per 60 last season 32 and 39 down the back half and then obviously he bet on himself with that ridiculous one year one million dollar deal just given the organization kind of that last kick at the can to go and and make hey and kind of go on a run while he was on a cheap contract and so he's going to get the deployment i think he's going to put up the

numbers and he's bet on himself to cash in and you know make seven or eight million maybe next year if he can if he can really hit a home run yeah he's certainly the biggest beneficiary of all the uh talent Exodus on the wing and it seems like his spot there is really secure and just on a permanent basis he was so effective last year so if you bump that up a little bit and you even adjust for the fact that he's going to be playing in stuff for competition maybe struggling just the fact that he's going to be playing probably with a logan mature full time is going to be awesome for him another name that I have here is jaden Schwartz and I'm interested in him just from the perspective of like he's sort of the most obvious regression guy from like a what happened

to his shooting percentage last year. And, you know, I should temper the expectations here because he does sort of miss a lot of time historically, and I'm not sure how much we can trust him. But, you know, just the fact that he was a 13.7% finisher throughout his career. And then last year he shot just 6%, scored only 11 goals and really struggled. Now, the thing is, we saw some of that regression already come in the playoffs, where he had 12 goals and 26 games on 61 shots. And so maybe he got it out of his system a little bit. But this is a guy who just the year before had 59 points in 62 games and had 20 plus goals and despite missing all that time. And so, you know, on a per game basis, I imagine he's going to be really effective again just because

he's a really good hockey player. And, you know, they found this combination with him and Teresenko and Shen in the playoffs. And I imagine we'll see Ryan O'Reilly bump up there a little bit and maybe they'll move around and they're one of those teams that has enough forward talent and enough pieces that they could have their lines in a blender a little bit as well as we saw in the playoffs. But I think that, you know, considering that I imagine he's going at the end of drafts and no one's really in on him. Like, he's another guy where it just seems like this one year apparation has taken everyone completely off of a cent. No, it absolutely has. One of those drafts I was telling about in the one leagues. All of a sudden, Jane Schwartz went in round like 17. I had no idea if he was

still on the board. He was just someone I completely forgot about. And despite that, that big playoff run where he put up the 20 points and 26 games. And like you said, he was clicking at close to 20% and I think that that's going to, you know, regress back to the mean a little bit too. But, you know, he was finishing at even strength a whole heck of a lot too. So I, the, my, my, my, my, my, my, my, One concern with him in producing high numbers for the entirety of the season and whatever that's going to be for him, 60, 70 games maybe, because you can always bank on him missing a few, is that his powerplay numbers or his deployment there has just kind of slowly crept down a little bit. And so now he lives around the two, two and a half minute mark on the top power play because they have two decent power plays in St. Louis. And so now it gets split up a little bit more. So, you know, he was a guy that, you know, once upon a time, you could bank on double digit power play points for sure, you know, maybe even 15 or 16.

and now we're looking at maybe he's going to get nine or 10. And so I think that that probably keeps him down. But it's a guy that he's shown capable of playing at a very high pace. You know, we're just a year removed from him playing at nearly an 80 point pace. And then he's flash 70 before that in previous years too. So, you know, I'll pull up the numbers on what I got for Schwartz here too. But I like him late in those drafts too. I wish I was paying more attention in one of the ones that I, one of the ones I did earlier this year.

But so I got Schwartz up here for 24 goals, 57 points and 74 games. I think that 74 games is probably a little generous. too, but playing at a 65 point pace throughout the season on a team that kind of another scoring by committee team, a great value late in the draft. Absolutely. Okay, one more name here, Josh Morrissey. You know, the Jets, it's about as rough a situation as you can possibly have and just sort of what a star comparison was to where they were at two years ago.

But, you know, we'll see still what will happen with Dustin Buflin and hopefully everything works out with him whether that means playing for the Jets or not um and then you know they lose jacob trooper they lose tylermiers they lose ben charot um they don't really replace those guys like they're expecting sam minicu who i do like as a as another sort of lottery ticket at another draft to come in and play uh i i understand the opportunity is there for neil piunk i just don't think he's good at hockey and so i struggle with that where the opportunity's there and he could you know fall out of bed into 30-ish points if he gets power play time on this team, but I just don't really want to be invested in that. I'd much rather gamble on a guy like Niku, who I think at least can be a good

player. And with Morrissey, his ADP right now is 162. And I'm not sure if that is adjusted after Dustin Bufflin News came out. But he's a guy that we've seen sort of steadily progress where in year one, he played 19 and a half minutes and at 20 points. In year two, he played 20 and a half minutes and he had 26 points. In year three, last year, he played 22 and a half minutes and he had 31 points. in just 59 games after missing a bunch of time mid-season. And so at least for the time being, I imagine he's basically going to be their do-it-all defenseman where he's going to be playing the number one minutes of five-on-five, and they're going to get him out there as much as they can with their top players.

He'll be probably on the top unit power play, just replacing that heavy workload with Buffalo playing three minutes per game on the power play and Truba playing another two, they have a punch of opportunity there to fill. And so I think for Morrissey, we'll see if, you know, maybe his draft position adjusts now that people are drafting after the Dustin Buffalo News came out. But if you can still get him this late in the draft, just because he's so low on the rankings, he seems like a guy that he's a good player.

I don't think he's necessarily the most offensively gifted player by any means, but we still expect this Jets team despite all of their question marks and all the red flags to score a bunch of goals because of the talent they have up front. And he seems like a guy who could really benefit from that. Yeah, no, I think you're spot on. He's another guy that I think he's his low ADP, there is probably a consequence of him missing time because, you know, he put up the 31 points in

59 games, but a lot of, a lot of players maybe aren't super serious and they're just kind of sorting by by total points last year. So if he put up the 40, 45 point pace that he actually did, that I think his numbers would be higher. But what I really like to see from him is that his shot generation is improving as well, too. So he's historically a guy who barely put over a shot per game, you know, that bumped up to, you know, nearly, nearly two last season. And that's still only skating under two minutes on the top power play unit and he still put up 10 power play points. Like you said, the Bufflin situation is that's the X factor here, right? Is if he's gone, then that's a ton of ice, especially that prime ice,

it's going to need to be swallowed up. And I think Morrisy is the, he's the natural fit to take over there. You know, when he was playing in junior in Prince Albert or Colonna, is that that was his role, was to be a top power play guy. And he generated a ton of points in the junior league's doing that too. So I think he has, I think he has that upside. He's not a pure offensive type guy that we can hope that, you know, maybe he steps in and he gets 60 points Ella John Carlson and plays three and a half four minutes on the top unit.

I don't think that's what we're going to see. but if Bufflin's out, and even before this went down, I fully expected Bufflin to miss 25 odd games, and then it was going to be Morrissey's time to shine. And then as you said too, I think Sammy Niku is kind of a wild card as well, who's a player who is high octane, high offense, and he was the HL defenseman of the year a couple years ago too,

so he's got the pedigree of putting out big points in North American pro hockey too. And so now all of a sudden, especially if Bufflin's gone, Niku's number two kind of on that pecking order for power play ice time. And if Morrissey doesn't grab it and run with it, Then he's the type of guy that either you took a flyer on late in the draft, or he's going to be sitting on the waiver wire that could be a really interesting pickup midseason as those numbers ramp up.

I like it. Give me some, okay, let's, we did an hour on guys we like. Let's bang through quickly some guys we don't like for guys who are scared of for whatever reasons. Yeah, for sure. I've got a couple here. I think, I think Jakub Verona is kind of being heralded as a real nice sleeper this year.

And I like Verona. I think he's a very talented guy. I think he's the best young player, obviously, in Washington. system. They're void of any real high impact prospects coming up the ranks. But, you know, in one-year leagues, he's not getting on that top power play unit. That's just not happening at this point. And, and that's all that really matters kind of in Washington. So he'll play with Nick Baxter at even strength on the second line. And that's, that's going to be good. That's going to help him get probably 25 goals and 50 points, but that glass ceiling is very thick for him. And so, and then

if you're in a keeper league, you're looking long term. You're like, all right, well, one day, you know, Oshie's going to be moving off that and even Ovechkin's going to be gone. But then you're looking at what? It's going to be Verana and Kuznet. off and then a bunch of scrubs unless they trade out some of this talent and get some talent coming back. So he's a player I'm concerned about with people projecting to hit 60, 65 points. I like it. Definitely a talented player, but you're right, just in terms of opportunity, like it seems

like he probably is what he is. He could probably benefit from more if I want to buy usage just because he was playing like 14-something minutes a night. But you're right. I think the ceiling definitely is there. I have Phil Kessel on my list. Hmm. I love Phil.

I feel bad. saying bad stuff, Phil's the best. But, you know, at an ADP of 63 right now, just because, and I imagine the move from Pittsburgh to Arizona has already been baked in based on where he was going in previous years while he was a member of the Penguins. But he's just a guy that, I mean, over the past three years, 44% of his point production, his elite point production, came on the power play. And only Nikita Kuturov had more power play points in that time than his 108 over the past three years. And so he goes from the fourth ranked power play with Crosby, Letang, Malkin, Hornquois in front of the net, to last year's 26-ranked powerplay.

And I understand that, you know, he had something to do with Pittsburgh's power play being that good. And come in Arizona, I imagine they're envisioning their power play being better because of him. But I just think from a volume perspective, I don't love his point production. Clearly, he's been also an elite shot generated over the past few years, although as guys like him age and lose a step, that tends to come down a little bit as well. I don't expect him to fall off a cliff here at age 32, but I do think that at that range, there's just, I've found that there's a bunch of other guys that I seem to prefer more to him or gravitate towards as opposed to all the risks that comes with him in his new situation. No, I think that's spot on too.

I think a lot of things need to go right for him to to even push up into 75 points next season, let alone replicate the 82 that he had last year. And so I thought it was crazy that, you know, when he got traded to Pittsburgh, we're all forecasting, you know, how many 40 goals seasons is he going to have? How many 50 is he going to have? I don't think he even hit 35 once with them. So his goal scoring metrics are sliding down a little bit. You know, the shot generation dipped below three shots a game last season.

He's still a high conversion finisher. So he's going to get, you know, he's going to click at 12, 13 percent, most likely. And then he's going to improve that top power play. And I think that if him and Clayton Keller, who's a, you know, a very highly talented player who can distribute the puck, if those two click at even strengthened on the top power play unit, then obviously the coyote's power play is going to improve too. but, you know, the days of him putting up 35, 40 points on the power play, I think, are probably over, especially at age 32. And as you said, too, is that he's a speed-driven player who's a high conversion finisher.

And so that means that he uses his speed to get his shot off. And that's not going to last forever. And so, you know, we're not sure if that's going to be that age 32 or age 33 season where the half step kind of slows down. And all of a sudden, he's getting his shots deflected a lot more than he previously had. You know, that that's yet to be seen. But I'm with you. I think that if he can hit 25 goals and 70 points next season, I think that's a big win.

But for him getting drafted around the 60th spot overall, that there's probably going to be some better options. Who else you have in your list? I got a couple more guys here. I've got Ryan Donato. And I liked what he did post-trade there out of Boston and heading a mini. He was shooting a ton, so he was averaging just about 11 shots per 60 minutes, which was top 20 last season for the entirety of the season.

So that's high-end generation for sure. but, you know, I don't really see a spot for him in the top six at this moment. So, you know, I think Zucker, Fiala, Zucarillo, and then Zach Pryze are probably pretty safe bets to lock up those top six wings. So that leaves him playing with maybe Luke Coonin or Joel Erickson-Eck on the third line. And then he's getting second power play unit. And, you know, we just keep saying it is that you got to get that ice time. So he's a shooter, he's a finisher. But if he's not getting top power play and if he's not seeing top six ice, then we're looking at a guy who's going to be playing 12, 13 minutes tonight at even strength and maybe a minute, minute,

minute and a half on the power play, and I think that that's going to mute those totals. Yeah, I like it. I'm generally staying away from the Minnesota Wild in terms. I think there's obviously Vali to Bugley in there, especially later in the draft, and I got to stay on brand with my Kevin Fiala love. But it is a situation that, you know, I don't think the upside there is necessarily in place. Here's a name that I had on my list that I don't necessarily dislike because I think that the concerns and the red flags have been baked into his ADP of 91, like,

if he was a couple rounds higher, then I would definitely be all against him. But Elias Lindholm is an interesting game to me just because his first and second half splits, especially around all of the star breaks, the first 50 games versus the final 30. And then if you include that, whatever that pitiful excuse of a postseason run was for Calgary, are as drastically different as you can be. You know, he comes out of the gate. He's playing with Johnny Goodrow, and he lights the world on fire. He's got 28 goals in the 51 games.

He's on fire. He's on 58 points. He's shooting 20%. And then all of a sudden, the final 30 games, that completely dries up. He goes to shooting under 10% again, which is what he's been throughout his career in Carolina. And you're getting six goals in 30 games, and you're only getting 20 points. And, you know, it's still a valuable player, especially he's going to get that opportunity that we like a lot on the top power play and playing with, with, I want to say Sebastian out, with Johnny Goodro full time. But I am worried about him as if people,

think that just because of a situation, he's this elite finisher all of a sudden that's money in the bank for 30, 35 goals and 70-ish points. I'm a bit worried about what his ceiling as an actual offensive talent is. I'm with you. I've always been very, you know, pretty cool on him. Even when he was kind of lighten the world on fire for the first, you know, 60, 70 percent of the season last year is that it just didn't seem like it was going to continue. And obviously being exposed to Monaghan and Goodrow, that is going to, that's going to provide dividends for a player. And so that should continue for him. But you know, for my money looking at his ADP here, is that, you know, am I taking him before Nick Baxter or Willie Neelander or even Evgeny Dadenoff?

And I'm not probably because I feel like those guys are a far more safer bet, especially Neelander and Dandenoff as the wing options, is that, you know, I think that they're pretty, pretty safe bets for 60, 65 points with that 70, 75 plus point upside. And I think that Lindholm is probably more the player that we saw the first four or five years of his career where he's going to click around, you know, 8, 9, 10%. He's going to put up maybe. maybe two shots a game, and then, you know, maybe he's going to put up 20, 20 goals and 60 points.

And I just, I feel, I feel that there's higher value. There's, there's higher upsides in players that are being drafted behind him in these Yahoo drafts for sure. But again, top line, top power playing Calgary, that's not a bad spot to be. So he's going to get his points too. Yep. I'm with you. It's a high-hawked in offense. Is there any other names you want to talk about or do you want to get into goalies a little bit here?

Yeah, I've got a few golies I want to chat about. but the first one on my board here is on my list is Corey Schneider. I think that he's kind of been left for debt a little bit and with just cause, with the numbers that he's put up in recent seasons has been deflating to say the least. But as we talked about New Jersey, very exciting team. Many people are expecting Blackwood to kind of steal that job and be a sexy pick to break out. But I still think that it's going to be Schneider. He's going to be the man and they're going to be an upstart team.

And, you know, this is, it's easy to forget that this is a guy who led the all-time time career save percentage list for a long stretch. And, you know, he still lives in the top 10, despite, you know, hanging around that 80 mark for way too long the last couple seasons. But it seems like the hips are fixed now. And, you know, he showed in those back 17, 20, 22 games, whatever it was that, that he looked like he was back to form where he put up a 923 say percentage. He was especially good on the penalty kill in that back stretch too, which is always a great sign for a netminder. I feel they gain a lot of confidence. They're your best penalty killer. And he was putting up some really strong numbers on the PK.

you know, if he can stay healthy, which is the big if, but it seems like the hips are ready to go for the season that if he is healthy, I like 50 plus starts from Schneider on a team that's going to be pushing for a playoff spot. Absolutely. I mean, his ADP of 176, like at that point, if he's not healthy, you can cut bait. But he definitely, I love the way he ended last year as an improved team that we expect to be very competitive. And so it's a good situation. That kind of ties into my general theory when it comes, or my strategy when it comes to fantasy hockey,

which is I typically don't pay for saves. And mostly because I believe fully that as the year it gets going, maybe you'll exit the draft and you won't like your goalies. But especially if it's a deeper league, you are going to be able to find quality starts on the waiver wire. I mean, last year in my league, I picked up Robin Lennar, I picked up Darcy Kemper, I picked up Yarrow Halak. And all three of those guys were, I think, top 10 goalies by the end of the year

on the player rateer because of their rate stats. And so if you're looking for just specifically volume, then maybe you're going to want to get some of these starters. But I find myself always gravitating towards these guys who are in timeshares on good teams because you know that they're not going to completely blow up and falter. And so as we're seeing with the goalie landscape changing around the league where only six goalies last year started more than 60 games, there's so many 50-50 splits there. And with the success those teams had and how we talk about how the NHL is a copycat league, if you're a team looking out there and you see the success the islanders had with Grice and Lennar, or you see the success the stars had with Bishop and Hudobin, or you see what Boston was doing with Rask and Halak and how it really freed up Rask

to have an epic playoff run because of how well-rested he was, why wouldn't you gravitate towards that, assuming you have two capable bodies? So I think we're going to see teams do that more, and I think the years of the workhorse where you're getting 65-70 starts automatically are out the door. And so if that's the case, I like some of these guys like Yarrow Halak at ADP of 166, like Corey Snyder, as you mentioned. I mean, even I take a flyer on a camp Talbot in Calgary taking the job from Dave Ridditch.

I'd say James Reimer and Carolina, Pavel Francesuze, in Colorado, there's so many of these guys that have upside that basically are already even being drafted. And I like those guys more than paying for Audrey Basilevsky in the first round, for example. Yeah, I'm with you. You know, another guy who's sitting here at a 156 ADP, is Jacob Markstrom, right, who I think was top three in quality starts last season. And, you know, a lot of people, again, they like the sexy young player that they think Thatcher Demko could steal this job.

But for my money, I think Markstrom takes another step forward on kind of a rejuvenated Vancouver club. And if you can get him at around 160 in your draft, like, he could end up being your number one netminder on this team. And, you know, you can kind of go up the list, too. I think that that anti-Ranted Darcy Kemper split, I'd love to handcuff those two guys because, again, a lot of people are thinking it's going to be Ranta's job. but Kemper was tremendous for them last season, you know?

So, and then then kind of the fun one, too, that I like is Philip Grubauer. And he's sitting with an ADP of 76, which is higher than I would have expected for him. But I guess people are getting on that Colorado train and they're really driving it hard. But I think that this is another player that who could put up, you know, 35 wins in 50, 52 games sort of thing. And that's going to provide a ton of value for him. I mean, even if you have, like, if you have deep benches, like, I know he's not sexy, but like Curtis McElaney on Tampa Bay, I mean, we saw last year to Louis, Louis de Meng what he did. And obviously we know what McElagney did on a worst team in Carolina. And so

I think he's good. I imagine they have Stanley Cup aspirations and they don't want to play Andre Vasselowski 65 times. So I think McAleany is going to get quite a bit of run there as well on what we expect to be arguably the best team in the league again. And so whether it's Vaselowski at 9 or Bishop at 13 or Babrovsky at 20 or even Flurry and Rask in the top 25, like I'm just staying away from all those situations. I think the level of forward you can get there is so, high that I'm always gravitating towards a skater there as opposed to the high goalies, at least in the top 50, I'd say. Yeah, spot on.

Yeah, I'm with you there too for sure. And people that do jump up on Vasselowski early, it's like, yeah, you're going to have yourself someone locked in, but what did you pass up on? And then the kind of last gal I'll mention here is UC Saros, who's sitting in ADP at 177 behind Schneider and Blackwood and Mers-Lincoln's and, you know, for a long time, this is the juicy fruit. Like, it's going to move you. And I think he's going to get this job one of these days.

And all it takes is a little quick injury for Pecorinae. And, you know, he's running, running the ball on a very good team in the West, too, that can provide a lot of saves and a lot of wins. Okay, let's rattle through a couple quick questions here to close out the show. And the first question comes from Ad Dem Filipovich. Whoa, how did that one get in here? He asks, does the immediate success of Rasmus Daly and Amaral Heistkema and last year emboldened you to take a chance and maybe even reach a little bit in your drafts

on the Quinn Hughes, Kail McCar, let's even throw Eric Brandstrom into that. list as being potential legitimate difference makers just because of how talented we think they are. And the reason I ask that is because clearly the landscape, we talked about how it's shifted for goalies and goalie usage. I mean, there was a time very recently where you just wouldn't see young defensemen be given the leash and be given the opportunity to play as much and be as effective as they are. But with the league shifting to a younger sort of threshold and with teams embracing aging curves and how they're younger for the prime. of these players that we thought, we're seeing these guys actually get the opportunity to play

big minutes right out of the gate. And so with those guys like the McCars and the Quinn Hughes of the world, they're obviously sort of, there's a lot of buzz around them. There's a lot of hype and they're very trendy picks. But if you think they're going to be legitimate difference makers, then they probably still aren't even going high enough. No, I think that's right. I'm all aboard the Kale McCar train. I think that that job on that top power play in Colorado, which is as juicy as it comes is pretty well locked in for him. I know Sam Gerard is a really nice player who I like as well too, but it's it's going to be McCar's job right. I think from day one and he'll run with it. And, you know, in that situation, even as a rookie defenseman with his skill set, I think that

what we saw as he jumped in at the tail end after he finished school last year is that, you know, things aren't going to be as rosy. There will be some hiccups as the season goes on. But, you know, if he's living on that top power play and I'm sure they're going to shelter him a little bit at five on five, too, that there's really no reason that he, he can't put up a 50 point pace. And then I think that the, the, the, the shine is just a little less for Quinn Hughes, just because the talent around him isn't going to be as high in Vancouver. And then that's no disrespect to Elise Pedersen, who I think is an absolute superstar, but, you know, they don't, they don't fill it out as well as Colorado does. And I don't think that his job is as secure as McCars.

I think at this point, I'm expecting Hughes to get that top power play job, but it's, it's not locked in. And we, we can see. Alex Edler's dead body. Yeah, but you could see it right because they want the shot on the point. So, you know, maybe they run a three plus two in Vancouver and they get Edler and Hughes up there or they put Myers up there, but they want a big one-timer on the point for some reason. And so I think that's the only thing that maybe could be holding Hughes back. But at the same time, like, if Hughes is playing on that top powerfully unit, he's going to be

in the corner for half the time anyways. We see the way this kid plays the game, right? He's got the puck on a stick and he goes for a loop or three. So I am, I'm a believer in both those players. I think that Hughes has a real realistic shot at hitting 40 points, maybe even 45 if things go well for him. And then Macar probably juiced set up five, five, seven, eight points. Eric Brannstrom, I do not think is going to be that impact player. I think Thomas Chabot is just going to eat up, swallow all that, all the juicy minutes there.

And Bram, he's going to be able to transition the puck and create a little offense at five on five. But, you know, Ottawa is kind of a weight of talent at five on five for the most part, too, outside of a couple of young players. So I'm not buying on Brantstrom, but, but for sure with McCar and Hughes. And then, you know, in a couple of seasons, we're going to be looking at Adam Boykowitz doing the same thing, pushing up. You know, we'll have to talk about Beaum

in a couple years, too. Is he going to be able to force his way into some fun ice too? So there's, it's really neat to see the young defensemen kind of go, you know, they don't have to be these big bruises as they once were, is that they go high in the draft. And then you can kind of pencil them in in two seasons that they're going to be on your club and that they're going to be put into offensive situations.

Are we speculating on anyone? to play with McDavid and Dry Sidel? I mean, isn't it, isn't it, Zach Cassian, 100%, right? Well, no, but the most of my question is, are you drafting Jack Cassian as if he's going to have that role full-time? No, I think he'll get moved around a ton, you know, like, it's so sad to see, but I'm sure we'll see Alex Chase on up there for a minute. They might put James Neal on his off-wing, you know, like Riley Sheehan.

Like, it's going to be, it's probably going to be pretty yuck throughout the year. And, like, I grabbed Zach Cassian in the last round of like a 20-round league, draft just because I was like, well, you know, he's probably not going to see any power play time, but he's going to hit and maybe he's going to live with McDavid for a little bit sort of thing. But it's ugly out there. And if you mean, like, what do they do in Emmington? Like, it's tough. I would personally split up dry saddle McDavid, but it only makes sense if you have some cool wingers to play with both of them and you don't.

So I guess you just keep them together and they hope the two of them can put up, you know, 50 goals each and a hundred points. And that's what you can cheer for as they go for another top 10 draft pick. Yeah, it's almost impossible. Well, if you were actively trying to have a worse situation around those guys, it would be really tough to even make it this bad. I mean, oh, it's ugly. But, I mean, as we saw last year, Alex Chassan, when he was playing with those guys, he was producing.

And even Ty Rattie had a bit of a cameo there in the Cassian towards the end of the year. So it's one of those situations where whoever plays of those guys is going to be very productive, but it might be more of a sort of a daily fantasy thing where you figure out who's going to be playing with him on a given night and you plug them into your lineup as opposed, to a season-long investment. But a similar question here is who's going to be playing with Crosby and Gensel? Because that's another spot, obviously. It seems like those two guys are going to be paired up for good.

And then whoever plays in that third spot, even if it's a guy who's probably not going to be playing with him on the top powerplay, it's still going to be a very cushy 5-on-5 gig. Yeah, for sure. If I had my way, I would probably get Jared McCann up there, who I think who's got speed and skill and a little bit of grit and sandpaper to his game that could maybe complement those players. but it's probably going to be Dominic Cahoon or maybe it's going to be Brian Rust or maybe it's going to be Patrick Cornquist.

I think there's a lot of options there too. It's disappointing to see what's happening in Pittsburgh there. I love Jake Gensel and then obviously Crosby and Malkin are who they are and we obviously have all the time in the world for them. But I think the penguins run at the top of the standings is in free fall at this point. And I think that they're going to be kind of a bubble team to make the playoffs and that the numbers are going to shrink for everyone. you know maybe crosbie can push 90 points maybe malcon can play at a point per game sort of thing and gensel can maybe replicate that 40 goal 70 point season but i'm not i'm not expecting any more step forwards for any of these players and i think a lot of it hinges on if chrysletan can stay healthy and generate that offense from the back end yeah yeah mccannes the name i wanted to take a flyer on i mean uh you know he bounced around the lineup i think he might be a bit too valuable for them as a third line center potentially just from a real life perspective but i love the idea of surrounding crosbie with two trigger men like gensil and and and and McCann, and he showed. I mean, he had the 11 goals and 32 games of the Penguins,

and that wasn't even exclusively with Crosby. So I think he has the highest upside. And if I was taking a flyer there, it would be on him. But I just don't trust the opportunity at this point. One final thing. Who's the name that you would see yourself? Let's frame this two ways. One is who would you, that's outside the first round right now,

that you could see yourself reaching because you're just all in on them having a monster season or you could also frame it from the perspective of who's a name currently going, you know, sizably out of the first round. Let's not say like the 15th overall guy who you could see being in the top 10 by the end of the season. Yeah, I think Sebastian Ajo going, you know, in the late third round there. I get it that he's a centerman and there's lots of good centers too. But, you know, I think this kid could put up 95 points next season. You know, if you're looking at, if you're looking at another guy too, I think Alex Brinkett, I think Elias Pedersen going in the 45 to 50. You know, range that I think Pedersen for sure is the type of guy that he has one of the largest ranges

of expectations of anyone in the league. So I think that there's a there's a real case to be made that he could end up the season putting up, you know, 67 points in 70 games. And that wouldn't be too outrageous, but that he could also step in and put up 90, 92 points in a full season and really assert himself as a true superstar and that if you if you somehow got him at the tail end of the fourth, early fifth round, then obviously you're laughing all the way of the bank. But, yeah, De Brinket, too, as a finisher, too. I think Patrick Liney is being slept on as soon as he gets signed up. John Carlson is still kind of in that third, fourth round range,

and there's no reason to expect him not to get his four minutes of power play a night and to get his 60-aught points from the back end. And especially in Multicat leagues, like, he's arguably, you know, the number two defensemen on any board out there for sure. So there's a few guys sitting outside on these ranges, too. And then, you know, I'm not buying on Jordan Binnington. I'm not, you know, as he's, you know, as, He's sitting there what is like a top six, seven goalie off the board right now on Yahoo.

I'm not buying on Tyson Barry. I think that the word is kind of out, the cat's out of the bag there, that his numbers are really inflated by his powerplay deployment. And if Morgan Riley is going to get all those juicy minutes, that second power play in Toronto, sure it's got Willie Neelander on it, but that's going to probably cut his ice in half on the power play and cut those PPPs down as well, too. So there's a few guys I'm not buying on.

Yeah. The line thing is crazy that he's going 44. I get it. that it's a very contentious situation and he conceivably see it playing into the season. But, you know, last year we were, I remember having conversations about how high in the first round he should go. And we, the fact that his stock has fallen this much after a year where shooting percentage depreciated and pretty much everything that went wrong could have. This guy's still, what, 21 years old or something like that. So I am, I'm pretty optimistic on

him. And I think if you're drafting and you can get him in that 40, 40, 45 range, even maybe probably fall into the 50s, um, I would be all. all over that. I think Taylor Hall, her an 80 beat of 29, you know, we're not too far removed from him being just a complete world beater. And we like that situation, obviously,

and he's got a lot to play for this year, so I like that. And Jack Eichol at 39, I just, I like his volume. I think he has another gear to take, assuming this Buffalo Sabres team can kind of put it together a little bit and take another step towards you know, competency.

And they got some blue liners that can get him the puck in transition in speed now with speed now and he did his volume the fact that I think he could probably be 35 goals 90 points 300 shots and 21 something minutes like all of that seems very doable for him based on his trajectory and so if you can get that guy in the late 30s that seems like another slam dunk pink for me yeah I'm I'm with you there too I'm I think I'm a little softer on Teresanko as well who's going you know before Ikel um I think he's obviously a safe bet for probably 30 goals and 65 points, but he's going to generate some shots,

but not to the same level as Eichl, and I don't think that the upside for him to take another step forward is the same as Icles there too. So I'm with you on that. Okay. All right, Camel, let's get out of here. Let's plug some stuff. So tell everyone where they can find you about your projections

and how they can get access to those and the full story there and all the stuff you want to plug before we get out of here. Yeah, for sure. So I'd be remiss if I didn't mention. So, yeah, just recently got promoted up to direct of film scouting and elite prospects. So our EP ringside crew is, we're bringing in a whole bunch of talent.

We got Mitch Brown, JD Berks doing a great job of bringing in a bunch of quality people, Rachel Dory. And so it's really exciting times over there. If you're not a part of elite prospects of the premium pass there, you should look at it. We're doing a lot of scouting, a lot of analysis, and then quality content too, which is usually missing from a lot of these scouting reports.

For me, my player projections this year, too. I do over 300 skaters, 40 goaltenders, and then a bunch of interesting rookies. And then this year I'm putting 50% of the proceeds are going to the Amazon Rainforest Alliance. This is a group that, you know, for the last three or four decades has been just out there trying to protect, preserve, and maintain the Amazon rainforest. And obviously it's been in the news a lot this year with all those fires going over there. This is a, you know, these are the lungs of our planet. And we're losing, you know, over 100,000 acres of forest daily.

And all the people and all the animals that are living amongst that, too. So I'm trying to, trying to push that as much as I can. And then I'll be posting the receipts once we get there. and we've been doing pretty well too, so hopefully I can maybe get it up to a thousand bucks on the donation there, which would be nice. Obviously, doing the work of Dober Prospects, too. Got the rankings out there.

Yeah, doing lots of stuff with Dober Hockey with the fantasy side. And we're a little podcast on Sports 9-650 with Satir Shaw. So many hats being worn these days. Well, you're doing great work, man, and I really appreciate you taking the time out of your busy schedule to come chat. This was a blast. And we'll get you back on the show as the year you get along. It'd be fun to kind of do some check-ins.

see where we're at with a lot of these players and maybe do like a mid-season review or something and then look back at some of our predictions and some of the stuff we said here on today's show and see how that panned out. Yeah, it would be a lot of fun. Let me know. Okay, cool, man. We'll chat soon. Sounds good. The Hockey P.D.Ocast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Filippovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.