The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 315: Picks, Projections, and Props

Episode Date: October 2, 2019

Dom Luszczyszyn joins the show to discuss playoff picks, most actionable team point total overs and unders, plus the best prop bets for future awards.2:00 How last year's weird postseason will embolden teams13:30 Did the Lightning and Leafs get even better this summer?21:30 The rest of the Atlantic Division 28:30 The messy Metro Division 38:00 Can the Pacific send a 4th team to the playoffs?43:00 Sorting through cluttered Central1:05:00 Favourite team bets1:09:00 Best prop bets for player awardsSee acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Okay, good. This is good behind the scenes. Behind the seeds, yeah. Like maybe before the intro, just have random banter. Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.Cast with your host, Dmitri. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitri Filipovich, and joining me in the beautiful, pristine Yahoo Studios in downtown Toronto. It's my good buddy, Dom, what's going on, man? It's not much going on. It's been a hectic September for me writing all those season previews at the Athletic.

I got to say the studio is nice, but it does not compare to some of the Airbnb's you put me up in. I feel like I've had you in some pretty cool spots. Yeah. Yeah, there's definitely been a couple that have been, that's one thing. Whenever I travel for work and I do this stuff, I'm always prioritizing a nice little,

a nice little Airbnb, especially when I'm having such key guests like yourself on the podcast. I can't just have you over at some dingy shack. I got to have you in a nice spot so that we can at least carry on the illusion that this is a very professionally run podcast. And no, this is great. I'm really excited to be chatting with you.

Obviously, you've done a ton of work in sort of previewing and preparing for the season. And it's funny how it works from our perspective when you're into industry because you do so much work in the weeks leading up to it. Like, it feels like there's like a really down period in the summer where you're kind of just like unwinding a little bit of decompressing. And then come September, we're like, okay, we've got to get ready for. this and you just start like consuming as much information as you can and trying to sort it all out in your head and it's like you're preparing for a final exam and then come Wednesday on October 2nd in the afternoon when the game started it there's like a bit of like a cathartic like okay now we can just watch these games and then wait at least a couple weeks before we form any sort

of new opinions because you obviously don't want to react to just one or two games yeah and honestly even like a few weeks sometimes is not enough either like I remember last year a lot of people were high on the St. Louis Blues and three months in, they weren't doing so great, obviously. But once they fired Mike Yo and hired Craig Barobi, you could see, like, their underlying numbers start going back up to where many expected them to be early on. And, like, those trends are great to look at. And you still have to, like, think back to what, what did I think about this team at the start of the year? What has changed? And should I believe those changes? Yeah, the tricky thing though is an obvious i mean they clearly um dug themselves out of that early season hole

it helped a lot that they had a goalie just play out of his mind and none of us could have projected that and i think that even if jordan bittington had come in and been like a league average goalie as opposed to like this like ridiculous 930 plus goalie for a long time maybe it wouldn't have been enough to ultimately dig them out of that hole but you clearly had a good team there in a lot of parts for there's a reason why we all like them in the preseason but the tricky thing is if you yourself too big of a hole, generally speaking, with the three-point games that are divvied out and sort of how these teams approach the regular season games where it's like, it feels like late in the game, both teams just have this like gentleman agreement where it's like, let's just

not risk anything. Let's get this into overtime. Let's each bank a point. And as you get into later and later into the season, it really does feel like for some of these teams, it's tough to make up any sort of significant ground when so many points are being distributed on a nightly basis. It has definitely felt that way in past years every single year like, okay, we won today, but this other team head of us got a loser point, so it doesn't really matter. But last year was funny when the entire Western conference just decided they didn't want to make the playoffs. I think it was Minnesota and Anaheim in playoff spots and they just imploded and Chicago was like last in the league and they went on a run of their own and Colorado sort of just like,

stayed in the middle, like losing, winning. Like, it created an opening for a team like St. Louis to make some noise. And it'll be interesting to see if this year is like last year, where there might be an opening to make a run in midseason or if it's like years past where three-point game is a big factor. Well, I'm also curious to see the lasting effects of what happened last postseason, because everyone remembers that, especially in the round one, where, there were so many upsets, right? Like the flames get destroyed by the avalanche,

the lightning gets swept by the blue jackets, so on and so forth. And I wonder for a lot of these teams now, whether that might be a bit of an impetus if you're approaching the trade deadline, let's say, and you're kind of a bubble team and maybe you have some impending UFAs and you're wondering,

would we be better off just selling off these guys and looking ahead to next year? The fact that so many of these teams just barely squeaked into the playoffs and then wound up having great success and making extended runs and obviously making a ton of money for their ownership through all of the home game revenue. I wonder if a lot of these teams, if it's going to kind of create this weird trickle-down effect where now teams are going to be less likely to pull the plug on a season if they're still kind of hovering around a playoff spot.

I really hope not. And I feel like this is where a team's internal analytic staff can be very helpful in telling them this is what we are. This is what we would be without these players. This would be with an upgrade. And is it worth it to do these things or maybe make a run next season? Especially in a this year, there's a stacked draft as well. And I feel like we may see something close to what happened in the McDavid year where every team at the bottom was like, all right, we're out.

Yeah. Let's just start losing a bunch of games. Yeah, I think it certainly be the case. I do think sometimes, you know, it's one thing to have people on your staff that will kind of preach that realism, but then it's another if your owner is like, listen, let's, let's try and get at least a couple of home games worth of revenue and makes an extra bucks here. And I know there's a lot of owners around the league that do probably run their business that way.

Yeah, absolutely. And I feel like there will be teams that look at what St. Louis did last year and be like, why not us? We've already started to hear. I think like Minnesota or something was like, hey, already the summer, they're like, look at that. I mean, it inspires you. And it's like, there's going to be so many mistakes made based off one hot run.

Yeah. And honestly, like, you appreciate the. confidence because that is obviously a part of these human beings playing sports. But St. Louis had a good team with good players. They were just underachieving. And they found a coach to get the best out of them. They had a magical goalie run. And that just, it's not going to happen every year. Yeah, the goalie run is one thing. I guess you're right. I mean, Craig Broubé clearly had a massive effect because they were one of the best five-on-five teams after he took over. And they weren't, they were really struggling. Like, they were losing in a golden,

was a big part of it, but their underlying numbers were also very underwhelming compared to the players they had. So it's like, I guess Mike Yale is just the big loser here because, like, just the fact that that season went the way it did. Like, I wonder what's going through his head watching all that stuff. Yeah. And I remember after the season ended, I did a piece with Jeremy Rutherford, who covers the blues for us. And it was sort of like a outlook at the numbers and he had talked to the people and like see like what happened. What was the change? And he said, like almost everyone he talked to like they couldn't really like put a finger on like what exactly brugay changed or anything it was just like I think they just they really was like a confidence

thing because they just kept losing and losing and once they started playing a bit better they can deal it with themselves and go on that run all right well so what we're going to do today is we're going to do some kind of last minute prep work for the upcoming season we're going to do some team over unders we're going to do some projections We're going to do some, we're going to make our picks. We're going to talk about individual awards and kind of like our favorite prop bets. And there's going to be a little bit of a gambling spin to it, but it's mostly just kind of our picks for the, for the seasons.

So I'm excited to do this. And you clearly, you know, you've done your homework in profiling all of these teams and sort of laying out the most realistic outcomes for them and sort of the basement in the ceiling. What team did you get, or what fans? fan base did you get the most pushback from because I remember um you know a couple years ago or whatever the the devil's fans were very furious with your ranking and I know that uh you had a bit of a a dust up with Islanders fans and last postseason um and I did myself as well I think anyone that was kind of preaching um a conservative projection for their outcome uh got a lot of itchral

especially after they swept the penguins but when you released your rankings what were the team What were the team's fan bases that were the most, like, incredulous with how low you were on their team? There actually weren't that many this year. I feel like people are either avoiding me completely or they're understanding, like, what I'm trying to do now. And I think also I've made changes to my model to a better account for defense. And I went through, like, 4,000 words per team to sort of, like, look at all the angles. So there wasn't much to really argue with. Like, obviously, there will be.

But like, I remember the one I was obviously most nervous about was the Islanders preview because I once again didn't have them that high. And I would have to explain myself, even after changing my model for things that would make the Islanders look better, like expected goals, better for defense. And they still just come out just outside the playoffs. And it was a side relief when I sent it to Arthur Staple. And he said, you know what, this was really good. Only the craziest of Islanders fans would look at this and have anything. to really quibble with. Yeah.

And the overall, I guess, response was really positive because I guess people could see like the amount of effort that went through it. And there were obviously like a couple on like each team saying, oh, this team is too low. How do you rank this player like this? But it wasn't too bad. I would say the most contentious one. It wasn't even that contentious was probably the avalanche only because I had them kind of low, like still like just outside the top 10.

but the preseason hype for them is pretty crazy. Yeah, of course. People are doing as a top five team. Yeah. Yeah, no, I think that was fair. We are at a bit of a weird place, or it's nice because I think there's pretty clearly, like the senators, the Red Wings and the Kings in some order are like just absolutely disastrous rosters at the moment. And there's young pieces there in place to get excited about and prospects that they've drafted

over the past couple years that I'm sure will, the most diehard of their fans will be following them. in whatever leagues they're playing in. But for the most part, it feels like those fan bases are like very, um, they've embraced their reality or they're sort of like very content with their outlook for this season. And they're kind of like very, um, sort of, they're good sports about it, especially like the Red Wings fans, for example. Like I find like if you like say anything bad about the Red Wings, like they're the first

ones to be like, oh my God, I can't believe how much we're paying Jonathan Erickson. They're like, they're fully embraced it. Like there's, there's obviously the one point. percent with every fan base that thinks that their worst players are great and that we're just haters. But for the most part, it feels like we're on the same page that the worst teams are going to be the worst teams this season. Yeah. I think with the like every year you learn something, especially with these contentious fan bases. And when these teams like do surprise, like the Islanders, like the devils, you start being like more uncertain yourself. And like that's not saying that

like as a bad thing, like you should be uncertain when it comes to hockey. Like anything can happen. So I remember when I was writing the King's preview, I gave them a like 5% chance of making the playoffs. And I'm like looking at the roster, I'm like, I mean, I can see why it's 5%, but I can also see why they maybe might surprise. Like maybe Drew Dowdy becomes the Norris contender he's been in the past. Maybe Kopitar has one of those magical seasons.

There are ways for every team to make the playoffs. And that's why no team starts at 0%. and no team starts at 100%. So there's a chance Tampa doesn't make the playoffs. It's it would be ridiculous, but it could happen. Wow, that's the one sound by you should clip on this podcast. Tampa won't make the playoffs. That's not what we're advising.

All right, I guess we can take us any number of ways. Let's start with our playoff picks, and then we can kind of go into some of the team over-unders and sort of the best bets for a will there, won't they make the playoffs? Let's start with the East. Here's the first question. Do you think that this is, do you think it's getting too cute not to have the Lightning as the number one team in both the Atlantic and the Eastern Conference as a whole? Or do you think there's a legitimate argument to be made that they might approach this regular season a bit differently based on how last year went and that a team like, let's say the Leafs, for example, has much more incentive.

or much more inspiration heading into this year to really just go full throttle and try to win that Atlantic Division to stay away from the Bruins in round one and to potentially change what's happened for them over the past couple years. I can see it, but I feel like the Lightning, like, no, they are also in a tough division and they don't have a lock on that first seat either. Like, even though they're the best team in the league, like, there's still a chance that they don't win the division because the second and third best teams are arguably the leaps and bruin right it's just tough that way it's a great system that we have yeah it's uh it's not ideal and

i feel like you can make the argument that they might take things a little slower like we've seen the capitals in the past where they won presence trophies it didn't matter so like okay let's just chill out we know we have some leeway to win so why not just save it for the playoffs but then you see the lightning put a first line together of point Stam Kutrov and you're like, well, maybe they want to beat last year's 128 points. Yeah, the crazy thing about the lightning is I think you could make a legitimate argument that at least on paper, they have a better roster this season than they had last year because I'm not expecting Kuturav to have another 128 points.

I think it's sort of it's possible that they have as great of an offensive season. but it does feel like for a variety of factors, they'll come back down earth a little bit just because it's so extreme, even with scoring up around the league. But most of their top players, if you look at it, are either on the way up in the case of a guy like Braden Point, for example, and even the Anthony Sorelli's of the world and Mikhail Sergachev

or they're like smack dab in their prime with Victor Headman and Stephen Stamco, so he might be on the later end of it, but Kutrov and so on and so forth. and they the difference between their roster that I think compared to last year is I think their subtractions were actually net positives. You know, J.T. Miller is a nice player

and they're going to miss him a little bit, but I think he was like their seventh or eighth most heavily used forward last year and that speaks to their immense depth and they have guys who could probably play more and step up into those roles and they have that first round pick from the Canucks

that they can conceivably use as a trade chip if they want to add a forward. in season. But on their blue line, they let Anton Stramman walk and he's not the player he used to be. And with his injury history, I wouldn't expect him to play the full season anyways. Dan Girardi retires. And then they replace them with Kevin Shaddenkirk on this like classic lightning one year, low risk, high upside deal. We expect Surgachev and Shernak to play more minutes and be even better as they're developing based on their aging curve. And so is it crazy to suggest that this team could conceivably be even better, even if the results, let's say, they're not going to have

62 wins and they're not going to have all these insane point totals. Yeah, definitely. I think this is a better team on paper than the one that started and finished last year. I think the loss of Miller is offset by internal guys just getting more minutes replacing that. They also added Maroon who fills a size element and might be a better net front presence than Miller was. Right. on the power play and then shan kirk you can say what you want about him but on the third pair on a great team like this i'm sure he will look very good moving the puck to some of their great forwards and without gerardy without strawman you can move surgitchev up into the top four and give him more minutes and now that lightning top four looks pretty like that was probably one of their weaknesses

last year with gerardy and strawman and now it looks like a huge strength so it's a difficult thing to process that this is a better team and they still won't match last. Yeah. Probably won't match because it was just so difficult to get there. And that's the thing. Like I remember last year with the Leaps, there are people saying that the Leaps weren't as good as the season before because they finished with 100 points instead of 105 after adding to Veras like what's going on here.

And they had more wins. Yeah. And they just didn't have that flashy, I think, shootout record or record one goal games. Right. And they had better underlying numbers as well. and just how it goes sometimes when there's a huge range of outcomes in a league where everything is just so volatile. Yeah, no, I think that's fair. I mean, that's, that's, that's, that's pretty scary that, um, the lightning could conceive a little better.

But I think the, I think the Leafs you can make an argument are also better, right? Like, I think the Gardner laws on defense is big, but they offset that at least a little bit with the Barry addition. They get rid of their two worst defensemen. I equated it to like that scene from Moneyball where the manager like wants to keep playing his guys. Rad Pitt, Billy Bean doesn't want him to play him. And so he just basically gets rid of the players so the manager cannot play them anymore. And it felt like Caldoubes and the Leafs needed to do that to stop Mike Babcock from playing Patrick Marlow from playing Ron Hainzianney and Nikita Zaitzibet. And so they basically just like took away his toys and they're like, you have to play with

ours instead. And we'll see. I mean, I don't even want to spend much time here on Cody Cici, but what we saw from Rasmus Sandian in the preseason is very promising. And so for a team that wants to play that North, South game, especially with how much they asked their defensemen to do these kind of long bomb outlet passes, having Barry and having Sandine there, I think gives them another element of skill to potentially be even more effective in that regard, which is scary considering how good they've already been offensive over the past two years. Like it's clearly by design what they're trying to do with the blue line in that there's not many guys who can, who know where to stand, quote unquote, from Babcock.

But there are guys who know where to place the puck and put it on someone's stick rather than off the glass. And when you have one of the more talented forward corpse in the league, it is a huge asset. And I think you'll see the Leafs control the puck more than they did last year with multiple weapons on both sides at actually moving the puck save for probably Cody Cici, but I guess we will see how he does on a team that isn't, though, that isn't the worst in the league. It's a big upgrade for him. Yeah, no, I mean, if we see time and time again that environment is so key, I think, you know, the penguins are kind of a classic example.

This obviously he didn't work with Jack Johnson, and some people are beyond saving. Maybe if he was a handful of years younger, I would have worked out differently for him in Pittsburgh, but even like Eric Branson, weirdly good underlying numbers for them. Justin Shaw is a classic example of a guy who looked like he was going to be playing in Europe and all of a sudden they acquire him and he's at least an above average usable defenseman for them. And so environment is huge in this league.

And we see time and time whether it's coaching or just being surrounded by better players and feeling like you don't have to do everything. Like for Cici, he can make that simple non-flashy play now and still get a point out of it just because he gives it to Austin Matthews and Oz Matthews just does the rest, right? and he didn't really have the benefit of the doubt in that regard in Ottawa.

And just playing with Riley on the left side, Matthews, Nielander, Janssen, probably on the second top line that they have, rather than playing shutdown minutes in Ottawa next to Mark Vorviyaki and JCP on offense. Like he didn't, I don't think he played that many minutes with like Stone or anything. At least that's what Myrtle said in his piece of it. I'll just trust him on that one. So I don't think we need to spend more time on like Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston are clearly going to make the playoffs. Yeah.

I guess the question is, can another Atlantic division team crack into that Eastern Conference playoff picture and actually steal one of those spots away from the Metro Division? Or do you think we're going to see five Metro teams make it? I think that Florida and Montreal definitely have a shot. I think Florida will probably make it over some of the. the metro teams. That's who I think would be the favorite for now, especially with Bobrovsky, and especially if he plays to his potential unlike last year where the start of the year was kind of like iffy for him. Right. And Montreal was somehow one of the best possession teams last year, and they still have Claude Julian system, and they have Nick Suzuki making the team. That is a

nice injection of skills. So it'll be competitive, that bubble. I don't think. think either of them can crack the top three but there's always that possibility if say the leaf's revamped defense just falls apart maybe anderson doesn't hold it together maybe boston has a bit of a cup final hangover they're a very old team maybe they fall apart a bit maybe the lightning don't shoot 20% on their power play this year and they fall apart like they're they're always those avenues and it would be very surprising to see them but it is possible yeah i mean i think uh Montreal's Avenue to make the playoffs is far more. The Metro teams being overrated than one of those three teams ahead of their own division ball.

But obviously, with all of the indivision games, it would help if they could steal some more points there. I actually, I have Montreal making it for me. I don't feel great about it. I would feel very good about it if they had actually gotten Jake Gardner this summer and had it and rebuff them. Because he's like the perfect left-handed defenseman to play with Shea Weber and finally give them that legitimate top pairing and ask Jeff Petru to do less. but instead their alternative was Ben Chirot and I really, that's like, that's going from, it's like going from like a nice, beautiful steak dinner to like a McDonald's hamburger. Like that's basically what going from Jake Gardner to Ben Chirot in this case was and that's

ultimately disappointing for me. Yeah. It's not great. But Chirot has his qualities. I think he is defensively strong. His qualities, okay. He's, he's a big guy. He's a one dimensional.

He knows where to stand. He knows where to stand. and that standing has some effectiveness, and that might work with someone like Petrie, who's very defensively inefficient at times, and maybe that was their reasoning for the move, but at the same time, Petrie and Kulak played pretty well together, and now you have Kulak on the third pair,

whereas Sherat goes into the second pair, probably plays more minutes than he should, and it feels like a retreat of the whole Carl Alzner situation. Well, and the Jordy Ben loss was big. He was really different in last year as well. And so there's kind of a bit of a domino effect there. And we'll see how that shakes out. You know, you mentioned their possession rates.

They were a dominant 5-1-5 team last year. Their top-five scoring team even, so it wasn't one of those things where they were just piling off in the quality, like a quantity. They were actually converting into goals. They need to fix their power play. Yeah. And I think if you told me that they were going to get a full season of the carry price we saw in the second half of last year, I'd feel much more confident about them

making the playoffs because he was remarkably good down the stretch. And I think that was nice considering the fact that his contract just kicked in and the fact that he had struggled with injuries and decline of play for like a year and a half. So maybe if he's turning a corner there and this is kind of the new norm for him, they're going to be a really good team. Yeah, they'll be a tough out. They don't have the elite offensive talent that a lot of the top teams have, but they have depth.

Remarkable depth, yeah. So much forward depth. And they have a good system. They have okay defensive depth. They still have Weber if he stays healthy. And I think Price is a big X factor that can sort of mitigate probably another terrible year on the power play. The Panthers are an interesting team.

When we talk about the over unders and some of our favorite bets, like I, I'm very intrigued by Panthers not to make the playoffs. I'm very intrigued by their over-under total. like I said, like around 95 and a half or so. Like I think they could still, Bobrovsky could be a big influence for them in the goal suppression department. They have a great power play. Their top six is awesome.

But they're another world on those teams where I don't love the depth. I don't, I have a lot of questions still. We'll see what first year under Joel Quimwell looks like. But I just think just based on how much money they spent and like the fact that they got the best goalie on the market, there does seem to be this common perception that Bobrovsky is just going to fix all of what ailed them last year and I think that certainly could be the case but it's not as much of a given as people seem to be making it out to be I think

no nothing when it comes to goaltending is a given especially for that team last year he wasn't that good last year like he was awesome in the playoffs and down the stretch but like if you look at his overall yeah the first half wasn't great so and he is an older goalie so it's not ideal but Florida's the biggest problem them last year was goaltending. I feel like if they even had average goaltending, they would have been in the playoff mix. So you can see the thought process there and why people assume that they can be maybe

in that top three mix because they added a guy like Bobrowski. I think the big X factor will be Quenville and what he can get out of one of the most overpaid defense corps in the league. Yeah. No, certainly. The goaltending was an issue, but I also, it's not, it's a bit, overly convenient that James Reimer and Roberta Luongo just completely fell apart at the same time. Like I think it's probably more likely that what was going on in front of them played a role in that.

And yeah, we'll see. I mean, you know, Eckpad had a really good bounce back season. Yandel's a nice player. I think Matheson's definitely overrated. And Stralman, they overpaid him. So we'll see. But it's going to be tough in that division where they very conceivably could improve and still be like the fifth best team in their own division. Yeah.

And it would be a matter of whether fifth in the Atlantic is better than fourth in the Metro. Which, let's pivot to the Metro then because it is really tough to figure out what to make of it. Yeah. I think the range of outcomes for a lot of these teams and the fact that like we could have five or six of them within like a handful of points of each other makes it so tough to have any sort of a firm grasp on like our expectations for what's going to happen. Do you have any sort of inkling into who you like to win it? Who might be overrated or underrated in this division? And whether you, do you have any hot takes in terms of like one of these, especially these teams that we just pencil in every year,

whether it's the Penguins or the Capitals, potentially taking a step back and actually missing it for once? I think my only hot take is that Carolina is the best team in the metro right now. I just love their defense. corpse. They have some good forward talent, and I think what they have is stronger than what the Penguin and Capitals have. But I think that is the top three in this division.

I think the Rangers, as exciting as their offseason was, they are still probably the worst team in this division because they have Ryan Strom at second line center, and they have a defense that is Jacob, Truba, a bunch of guys, and also Mark Stahl. I'm just not very confident in that. And the rest, there is an argument for every team. There's an argument for the Devils after adding Hughes, Suban, Simmons, Gusev. I think, to me, they are the playoff. They are the playoff team in the Metro right now.

I think I have them at 55% to make playoffs, 9.3 points. So it's not like they're in. Right. But they have the inside track to me. And then it'll come down to the Flyers, what they can get out of Carter Harrow. what Vinyo does with the group, whether the power play can improve with the Islanders, it's whether they can co-ke some offense from their lineup and still be the stingy defensive team, whether Varlamov can be better in a trot system.

Right. With the blue jackets, I am much higher on them than I think the general public. But everything hinges on what their mystery, goal-tending duo can, can, can muster this year. Hey, I ride with Elvis. Elvis is, Elvis is going to take him to a promised land. He's in the building. Hey, maybe. I do not know anything about him whatsoever. He's just listed as guy in my projections because he has no or limited any of each other. I don't know how many games he's played. No, he's playing zero games. Zero. There you go. But he's dominated the Swiss League, which I don't know what the translation factor is there. But I guess it's better

than not having dominated another league, right? And I don't know, he seems like an exciting bet. I like that Columbus is going into the year with spite. Well, with spite, I like that they're going in without sort of a safety net in goal. Because a lot of these teams, I think, if they were in the similar situation, Brovsky left, they would have brought in, they were recycled one of these, like, very underwhelming backups that is just going to eat up starts and, league average or below.

And for them, they're, like, embracing the unknown a little bit of, like, this might be a rebuilding year, but we might also have two really good goalies. Let's just see what happens. We can always just get one of these Curtis McElaney types at some point down the road. So I like that they're not, like, capping their ceiling and at least leaving the door open to potentially having good goaltending. Yeah, I do like that, especially with gold tending being the most volatile. The underrated thing I like about the blue jackets this year is they,

won't have to probably deal with Brandon Dubinsky's services on the fourth line. They can maybe inject some skill. Well, they have so much depth, too. They could roll four skill lines without like that Panarin level superstar, but like four good lines that could move the needles. Yeah, sort of what we saw with the HABORs last year, where everyone was writing them off and then they had four lines that just like overwhelm people.

And I think we might see the same with Blue Jackets. I think we want to see a big step from Dubois this year. be the guy that was drafted third overall. Yeah. Yeah. Well, especially without Panera and sort of doing a lot

of the heavy lifting. Yeah, that'll be interesting. Him and Atkinson, how they perform. Yeah. There's so much to unpack in this Metro division. I think the Metro is like a great

psychological experiment in terms of how you view things from like how excited you get about sort of these shiny new toys and like the recency bias of the Rangers and the Devils. They made so many moves. They bought on all these new players. People are talking about,

talking themselves into them based on preseason hype, especially the devils more so than the Rangers. I think people for the most part agree that the Rangers probably won't be as good this year. They'll be more fun. There'll be more promising, but it's more of a longer term project. But then I do feel like I have this nagging feeling in the back of my head that we're going to come to the end of the year.

And once again, the capitals and the penguins will have 100 plus points. They'll be in the top three of the Metro Division and we'll be like, we got fooled by the new thing on the block and we should have just trusted the process because these teams regardless of what's happening just always seem to be there at the end of the day. There are a surprising number of people ready to write off the penguins after seeing what happened to the Blackhawks and the Kings and say, you know what, penguins, it's been too long

at the top. I think also getting swept and scoring like five total goals against Islanders. Like if that first round it played out differently, I think people's expectations for the penguins this year to be higher. Yeah. And then you have a potential pairing of Johnson and good Branson. People are like, all right, penguins, you are my spicy pick to miss the playoffs. And I don't really see it. They, with the season cross we had last year, with Malkin, maybe getting back to being Malkin,

they have a lot of forward depth to a Salavela Teng. If they're healthy, they should be good. And down the stretch last year, I think it's like underreported that when they added Bukstad and McCann, they were an elite expected goal team. The one caveat there is, I think we can't just gloss over if they're healthy, especially with Latang. And Malkin, yeah.

Yeah, with Lattang, I mean, he's such a tremendous player, and they rely on him so much, but he basically is a lock to miss 15 to 20 games at some point. And that's sad to say, but it's the reality. Just go look at his game logs. Like, it happens every year pretty much.

And so if he misses a longer period of time, I think they're going to be in trouble. I think if some of Crosby potentially coming back down Earth a little bit could be sort of balanced out by Malkin being better than he was last year. But, you know, they relied on Crosby so much to do everything for them. And if he's just good and not absolutely insanely great and potentially the MVP, they could struggle a little bit. but you're right. I mean, you just don't want to be the person that's betting against Crosby, Malkin, and Lattang, because they're that damn good, and you're going to wind up looking stupid. Yeah, and I feel like the comparisons to Chicago and L.A., I just, I don't think they're as founded

because those teams, they weren't as deep at Ford as Pittsburgh is. Yeah, they've done a much better job. And as good as Taves, Cain, Keith, Coptar, Doughty are, they are not Crosby Malkin, Lattang, even though some of them are in the league's top 100 players of all time. and some aren't. But it is disappointing that their big off-season move was Brandon Tanna. Like if they had done something more with that cap space, I would feel much better about this. So that's concerning.

Yes, very, very much. So imagine just trading Kessel away and using that space to get a third-line player and then shove him next to Malkin and say, you know what, let's see how this goes. Man, the list of Ergeny Malkins wingers over the years is, I would watch a full documentary just based on all those guys. So, okay, let's make some formal picks here then. So who are the eight teams you have outies making the playoffs? I have lightning, leaps, Bruins in the Atlantic,

Carolina, Pittsburgh, Washington, and the Metro. And then Wildcard, I am going with the Devils and Panthers. So I'm going to go with the HABs and the Flyers. The Flyers. The Flyers. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. Here's my argument.

We hate the Kevin Hayes contract. There's no doubt he makes them better this year. Yeah. Just based on what he's replacing down the middle. Carter Hart, full season of him. He doesn't need to be the savior. He just needs to be competent. Better than the seven other guys they played last year.

Ellen Vino has his flaws as a coach, but the track record suggests that early on his team will buy into what he's selling and he will get the most out of them. And you put that all together. And then with the start talent they have up front, the fact that I'm still betting on Shane Gostis Bear and Ivan Proverov

to be much better than they looked last year where they just both fell apart just based on their age and their pedigree and the fact that they've already shown at the NHL level I think they're better than that and so you put all those pieces together and I actually think that Flyers team is good and that makes me nervous

because whenever you are confident about a Flyers being something they wind up being the exact opposite and so watch them be the worst team in the league just because I feel like they're going to be good. The safest bet for Philadelphia is right in the middle, always, and I have them in ninth. You have them probably an eighth, so split hairs. This is good, yeah.

But trust me, there's going to be points where they look like the 31st team, and there's going to be points where they look like the first team. Yeah, wasn't there that season where they won and lost 10 games in a row in the same year? So Flyers, feel the flyers. All right, so I like it. Let's do the West then. Mm-hmm. So do you think it's safe to say that the top three Pacific teams in some order are going to be Vegas, San Jose, and Calgary?

Yes. I think that is an extremely safe bet just based on everyone else in the Pacific. Yeah, so I have Vegas winning the West. Yes. I don't know. I'm sorry, why I said Vest. They're winning the best. the Pacific behind those three teams is brutal.

And kind of playing off of what we were talking about at the start where you could see some of these teams convincing themselves that they could make the playoffs and be this year's Colorado or whatever and went around and push a team in round two. I think that some of these Pacific teams, and we've already seen it with Vancouver based on how they approach this summer, how much money they spent on guys who don't really move the needle that much and how all in they are with this weird eclectic mix of underwhelming talent.

There's going to be some of those teams, even Edmonton. I mean, if you have McDavid, you have a chance. I guess L.A. and Anaheim are probably content with not being there, but Arizona, based off what they showed last year. So we've got those three teams right there that I think are heading into the season, talking themselves into there being a plausible chance. They could be a wildcar team. And I just don't see it.

I think the central is going to have. have all five, or both of the wild card spots and qualify five teams here. I think so. I'm just going to say that I will not take any Anahemduck slander in this preseason. I think they will surprise some people. They have the best going league. I think we can agree on that, even if some general managers do not. What do you think was worse last year?

Having Randy Carlisle as their coach or like quite literally not having a coach for the second half of the season? It was having Randy Carlisle as a coach because they, I think under Bob Marie, who is a GM, probably... He was legitimately, these games were hilarious. He was just standing there just kind of like... Yeah. He let his assistant coaches do the work,

but he was just like, I'm just hanging out and just getting a front row seat to what's happening here. Yes, and they did fine, which says a lot about Carlisle. And the fact is they are not under Carlisle this year. They still have talented-ish players who all collapsed last year in a Carlisle-fuel fueled.

explosion. And I think what's most interesting about them is they have young guys who can maybe take a step and catapult them into respectability. They have Sam Steele, they have Max Comtois, they have Max Jones, they have Troy Terry and... All of whom have a rapport with Aiken's already based on their HL work. Yeah, exactly. And I think a lot of those guys will get bigger roles this year and it won't just be the Gets Laugh show, it won't just be the Raquel show. And maybe we see a few more minutes for Andre Casha as well instead of whatever he was getting with Carlisle. And I think they will surprise some people and be a playoff bubble team. Yeah.

Like still far away from the bubble. But I don't think they'll be a bottom feeder. That's my hot take for the season. Yeah, no, I like it. I mean, when you have John Gibson, we saw early on last year before, like, he started looking like a normal human being. But when he was playing out of his mind, which he can do for stretches, for sure he gave them a chance to stay competitive and the roster around him has room to grow and get better conceivably even their veteran players as I was talking about in my watchability

rankings are all guys who are kind of like in their prime right that like Raquel silverberg Linhol manson Fowler group they're all still like late 20s and still should be good players and I guess my one concern about getting too high on them is the fact that sometimes we see with these young players like we just sort of them to get better every season and maybe it's unfair to evaluate them because especially at the start of the year like a lot of it was under a carlyle system and then down the stretch you don't know what to make of the numbers but there's going to be growing pains and especially with some of these forwards if they're asking too much of them they could get caved in a little bit of

five on five against a team like Vegas that is just like rolling out these two top lines against them all time and time again so I'm like I have a bit of a reservation I love their long-term outlook I think they're going to be much more excited. and interesting to follow this year for sure. But in terms of actual tangible on ice results, I think it might be a bit slower process than expecting them to just be significantly better. Yeah.

And that argument is definitely there for a lot of those young guys they got like absolutely cave in last year. It was unfair at the start of the year. They were just like throwing them into the walk. Yeah. Well, okay, so the central is, is tricky to store it out similar to the metro, I guess, because I feel pretty confident that Chicago and Minnesota won't make the playoffs,

although they're going to be like good and difficult outs. But, man, Winnipeg, Winnipeg, we're going to talk about them here. They are my most intriguing will not make the playoffs bet. I mean, if you can get them with plus 130, that is, that's enticing. Yeah, it says a lot when the team opens at, I think, 9. 95, 96 points, and the Vig immediately, like, moves up extremely to, like, you need to put down 300 to win 100 on this bet. And I remember when I first, like, did my projections, Winnipeg just did not grate out very

well. I'm like, oh, this is going to be a spicy one maybe, because people still see the elite talent. They have, like, this is a contender, all this stuff, but they, their defensive depth just got depleted in the off season. Now you have maybe Bufflin not even playing and it just looks, it looks brutal. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they didn't really do anything to replace those minutes, even if I think they

were justified in not paying Tyler Myers, what do you want to getting paid? Not paying Ben Chirot, what he wound up getting paid. They kind of had their hands tied a bit with Jacob Trubach, because it feels like the rest of the league sort of just realized the inevitable outcome there. And you could argue they should have just brought him back and played him. this year and tried to figure it out next summer, but they clearly wanted to resolve that situation. So, like, I feel for them in that regard, but the fact that, especially heading into the season without Bufflin in the starting lineup, I mean, is Josh Morrissey going to lead

the league in ice time? Like, he might have to out of necessity just because otherwise, it's a lot of Tucker Pullman. And I don't know, a great name. I don't know how far that's going to take them. And they certainly have the offensive talent up front to win their fair share of games. by a 5-4-6-5 score, but that's not a great strategy heading into the year where you're just kind of expecting that. And I think that's sort of what they're facing at this point, unless Bufflin can come back and be healthy and be the dominant player that he's been in the past, which even given his recent injury concerns, still seems like a stretch, even if he does announce that he's going to

come back and play. Even with Buffaloan, I'm just not sold on this team because they have two good defensemen and a lot of replacement level awfulness, really. And the issue with the forwards is they have depth, but that second line center slot is still an issue with Brian Little, just depleting over the years. And just getting absolutely roasted by Patrick Kleine this off season.

I mean, my God. How do you show your face after that? And I think last year we saw some issues, even with the top line, they were getting outchance outscored down the stretch. when the defensive depth just sort of was ravaged by injuries, and that might be a precursor to what we see this year. So with Bufflin, I would put them outside the playoffs.

Without Bufflin, they might be the worst team in the central. So which central team do you have making it ahead of them, then? The Minnesota Wild. Oh, no. Oh, no. I saw the projections for the evolving Wild guys and how high they had this team. Yeah.

Let's debate the Minnesota Wild. I mean, I think sometimes we can definitely, the fact that they were such a mess in terms of their front office last year, it's kind of tough to shake that, which has no bearing on this team's projection heading into this season, considering Paul Fenton's gone

and considering that they're going in with this roster. You know, the Zuccarello contract was abominable. horn, I thought, but he clearly makes them better this year. Similar to what we said about Kevin Hayes. They're getting Matt Dumba back. They have a couple of young guys. Exactly, yeah, although at his age, I'm not sure what can we can reasonably expect from him.

But it feels like, yeah, maybe the fact that it's such a weird mix of players and that sting from last year, maybe that's kind of clouding my judgment a little bit. But I do feel like based on the age and the miles on a lot of their key players, they really need like a best case scenario season I think health-wise especially to achieve uh playoff status here although if if the blackhawks are such a mess defensively again and the bottom of the pacific sucks and the jets just completely bottom out because of their uh depleted defense there's definitely an opening there I just think like just locking in guys like stall parise suitor koiwu to play 82 games and be dominant players

it might be a bit of like a we're treating it as a foregone conclusion and it might not necessarily be that. And when I did my, because before I do my projections, I always like pull the public and say, okay, where do you see these teams? And a lot of people had Minnesota like near the bottom. They were a laughing stock last year. Yeah, they were laughing stock. And the arguments for me is that this was one of, if not the best defensive teams last year. And they will have Koi back who.

who is still a defensive workhorse, they'll have their top four defense intact. The main issue will be, is Dubnick going to be as bad as he was last year, or can he maybe improve just a little and be only below average instead of severely below replacement level? Because that goaltending, based on the defense structure, what was expected of him, it was one of the worst in the league, and it's been that way for two years straight. So that'll be a big key. The other key for me is that this was still a 54% expected goals team.

And their goal share was around 48%, something like that. And I went through the history of teams that underperformed expected goals by that margin. And the average bounceback was almost identical to the gap from the year before. So if the wild can still be this expect goals team and there is a reason to believe that based on some of the forward depth they have, the defense structure, Bruce Boudreau, I feel like they can outscore teams at 5 and 5 and hopefully get by. Well, betting on Bruce Boudreau's team to make the playoffs is typically a good bet. I don't know how much to buy into this. And this is one of the frustrations about where we're at with, uh, our information that's presently available in terms of the shot share stuff, the expected goals,

how we're calculating it, the tracking data that will hopefully eventually come and be publicly available because I don't think they are a 54% expected goal team. I think they're not a 46% or 47% or wherever you said they are either. They're probably some in the middle. I think they're in the black. And I think if they are, that's going to be clearly, result in a much better season for them. But I was looking into this when, because I noticed that Devin Dubnick had like, I think only Jonathan Quick was worse

in terms of goals saved above average, but he had an above average save percentage. And I remember wondering like what was going on there and looking at their defensive numbers and their expected goal shares and thinking like there's something weird going on here. And I remember, you know, my good buddy Kevin Woodley,

who was on the podcast recently and talking about goalies, was telling me about how one of the tracking company these clear side analytics has this info about sort of the screens that were involved with Dubnick and sort of some of the movement in terms of what was happening in the defensive zone. And there could be something weird going on there where maybe the way we're calculating expected goals right now might not actually be very accurate or there might be a monkey wrench thrown in there.

So I'm really curious to see how that plays out because you're right by the conventional argument of just looking at what happens with these teams. they should be a lot better and there's an opening there to make the playoffs. I'm just wondering how much better they really are going to be. Yeah. Yeah. And I definitely see that. My thing is I think they'll be in the mix.

Yeah, for sure. I just don't think they'll be the laughing stock. People are making them out to be. The expected goals argument is interesting because I see Minnesota 54% and I see the evolving wild twins running the set. I'm like, hmm, what's going on here, boys? And so I message them and I chirped them a bit for that. I think Alex Novit at Hockey Graf's did a interesting thing where he looked at an expected goals model using stuff like that with like pre-shot movement, stuff that we can track.

And he saw that location was still one of the biggest factors. And if we've seen in the past that teams with this huge gap, make up that gap in the following year, I think there is some merit that there is some progression coming, especially with the wild. It wasn't just Dumbick, just being a sieve or whatever it was. It was also on offense where Zucker, stall, they weren't converting as many goals as they haven't passed. Offensibly, I think they're going to be significantly better. I think there's clear regression coming there, especially for a guy like Zucker. I mean, you look at his career rates and then what happened last year. And I'm sure there's also a psychological element as well.

Like he had a tough year. He was in trade rumors all year. He was going to be traded a couple times. It looked like he was going to happen. like that must weigh on you so i fully expect him to get back to 30 goals and and have a balance back season on that'll be huge and so i think offensively 100% defensively was and i still think the way we measure defensive stats is still up for debate and i listen i've seen this argument time and time again so i'm not going to be on the side of um being against the regression

happening because when people go like oh no shock quality blah blah like typically it winds up making them look stupid and have egg on their face so i think the wild will be better i just i just think it's an interesting discussion point because it's not necessarily as cut as dried as people sometimes like to make it yeah definitely isn't and i mean i would have loved to watch more wild games have a more informed opinion but i did not want to watch many wild games last year well i mean i got a stand brand i k Kevin fiala breakout season yeah uh for the fifth straight year i'm calling him um so i'm gonna take that to the grave yeah i mean i like you know all jokes aside about paul venton but getting a guy like denano getting fiala at least like they did

I'd bring, they did raise their offensive upside a little bit with some of these young guys. So I think there's a lot like Joel Erickson-Eck. Like there's good players here. They're just reliant on old guys. And that concerns me a little bit. And otherwise, you're right. I think the statistical case is certainly there to have them as like kind of that fifth central team. So let's, okay.

So here's how I have it. I have Dallas and Nashville as the top two central teams. And then I have St. Louis. St. Louis, Colorado, and then some combination of Winnipeg and Minnesota. Yeah, I would just flip St. Louis and Dallas. I'm wondering what your thoughts are on this because I see the odds makers are lower on St. Louis than other cup winners. I see in my poll that people aren't as high on the blues in general, and I have them

in the top five, again, because of their defensive metrics. So what do you see about the blues that you have them in third? Especially after seeing them dominate the second half of last year. I am skeptical that Jordan Binnington is as good as he looked last year and as his biggest defenders would have you believe he is. Now with this team's defensive structure, their possession rates, how they play in front of them, he doesn't necessarily need to be great for him to have, have a 9, 20s, a percentage, and for this team to win a lot of games.

So I think there's a lot of wiggle room there, but I don't know. I don't want to make the sort of lazy kind of talking head argument of like, they're going to come out of the gate slow with Stanley Cup hangover. I think they're a really, really good team. They were a top five, five-on-five team last year under Greg Barouba. And so there's a lot of talent there. I'd love to see them play some of these young guys a bit more. I don't know.

I just really like Dallas and Nashville this year, especially in the regular season. I think you can make the argument that St. Louis is the best team of those. I just think for those other two teams, I like them slightly more from regular season projection bases. And people aren't as high on Nashville this year either, which is strange. I think they're the second best team with you. I think they'll be right around 100 points.

And I think losing Suban would be hard for any team. But when you are in Nashville and we can still have Roman Eos team on the top power play, when you can get Dante Prowbrough just, yeah, get in there, scan the top four kid and he'll be fine probably. And it got them Duchenne and it gives them a pretty strong top six where they're bringing up the Jofa line, but I love what they're doing by putting Forsberg, Duchenne, and Granlin together. I think that could be one of the more intriguing lines in the league this year.

Absolutely. And I think sometimes the hate goes a bit too far on Matt D'Shaen. Like this thing, there's certainly an element of empty capital. salary scoring with him on occasion and he might not be the type of impact player that he looks like he is when he's putting together a highlight real player a highlight real goal but you know this team made big bets on they've been looking for a second line center behind randre hanson for years they made big bets on californ eras and nick bonino and both of them worked out horribly for them i think for duches he does bring a bit of a sort of like uh he's going to kickstart

things a little bit it feels like this team's gotten a bit stale um I just think he gives them a bit more offensive upside, a bit more dynamic play. And it's going to be hard for them with Dushan there and with a new power play coach to be a historically bad 30 first ranked power play again, considering the talent they have. And maybe the fact that Sue Ben's gone now might actually mean that they start playing four forwards on the power play and not to defensemen. And as weird, as counterproductive as that sounds, it might be a bit of an addition by subtraction just purely on the power play, not in terms of overall production. So if their power play even becomes like the 20th best, like I still think they'd be really good at 5-1-5. They've got great defense. They've got two awesome scoring lines.

And they have arguably the best goalie tandem in the league when you factor in the backup. So I just, I think it's a really, really good team. I just don't see it. Yeah. I love it. The thing with Duchenne is I'm not as high on him either. But I think the fit here is just incredible, especially the way they're putting him with between four and Granlin, two guys who can really drive.

play on the wings. You've got three guys who can carry the puck. Well, I think right now if you go on daily face off, they have this as the second line. I, this is their, this is their top line, right? And the power play will be interesting. I would love to see Arvidson get more than like three points or whatever he got last year.

Right. And we'll see how it goes. I think just the other thing, other than four-for-for-s-1D is that the Predators were one of those teams that didn't just use their top unit. Right. And now that Suban isn't there, you don't have that, okay, we need to give Yosey and Suban their minutes. They can just say, this is our first unit.

Let's give them 60, 65% of the minutes. And hopefully that gives them more time to actually figure something out there. So what would that first unit for you look like? I mean, obviously some of this is like, you know, a personnel sort of driven thing. And you want to put guys into places where you can maximize their skill sets. But let's assume Roman Yose is on the top of Ropold, although Ryan Ellis is. perfectly fine as a puck mover himself there but if you've got yossey and you've got duchin considering how much you paid him he's going to be there forsberg has to be there

you're saying you want arbits in there who's who's who's who's getting cut out there from uh from johansen or grandland because you'd think johansson but grandlin has been historically a really awesome power play distributor so it's kind of i don't know what you do there yeah he has and that is that is a tough question because i think he's been better than johansen in that regard but that you're starting with Johansen to start. Yeah. I think the issue is that they don't really have someone who can man the net front like Arvinson. Right.

And he also doesn't really do well there. So that might be if he doesn't fit on the top unit, I think that's the first person I would cut and maybe get Forsberg in there, get Duchenne in there. I feel like they have decent hand-eye, maybe get like a Joe Pavelski type thing going. Right. I like Armitzsson as a net front. He's not the conventional guy, but he's like jumping up. and down and he's doing wild stuff he's pissing people

he had like three points last year in like 200 minutes so I mean but even when they added Granlin and Simmons I was expecting I was like okay this makes sense their power play will be better and they were an 04 in the playoffs and like 30 minutes against the stars like it was it was bad like they were that's the reason why they lost that series and so Dallas has become a really trendy team as we close out the Western Conference here because they look good in the postseason they add Pavelsky I guess the concern here would be expecting Bishop to be healthy and be as good as he was last year.

But at the same time, with Montgomery's defensive system in front of him, and the fact that Hudobin is a really good backup for them, I'm kind of buying in on all of the stars hype. I think they're going to be a really, really good regular season team. I think they'll be good. I wouldn't go as far as really good. they'll be in the mix for sure. They'll be one of the top four teams.

I think if you have St. Louis, Nashville, Dallas, Colorado as your top four, you're pretty much like splitting here. One of them is going to show up and be the best team. I personally think Dallas is third in the pecking order right now. The issue for me is they have these elite talents, some of the best, probably one of the best cores in the league, but their depth at Ford is bad. It's not great. It is bad. At the same time, though, I do think the

Pavelski edition is nice from a flexibility perspective and sort of how Montgomery can mix stuff up. And I know they've been using hints down the middle as a second line center and having Radjelaw on his wing. I think we could see Pavelsky

potentially be the second line center with hints on his wing. They can mix and match with that. They have facts as sort of that traditional third center that plays against other teams best players. I love the blue line. The blue line is something I really love because, one,

Montgomery's already shown, especially in the postseason, that he's willing to get creative and just toss Klingberg and Heiskin and out together for all the offensive zone draws. Two, I think we can't overstate the importance of replacing Ben Lovejoy's minutes with Andre Secre. I know that he's not the player he once was

because of all these debilitating injuries, but he showed that he can be a really good third-parrying defenseman on Edmonton last year. And so they basically, I know it's crazy to say about a team that has Roman Polack playing meaningful minutes, but I love all of the other defensive pieces there, and I think they're good enough to compensate for that. So I just like this team. Maybe it's a bit of reason to be biased based on their postseason run, but I think there's a lot of talent there to be maximized. I think we will see.

I disagree about the defense. Obviously, Polack is Polack and not. great and the fact that I think he's still in the top four is a big issue. Yeah. That really limits Heiskenen's potential. The thing for me is I like I love clingbird. I like Heiskenen. I don't like any of the other defense on the team. I do not see the Essel Lindel fanfare that that is a that is one of the more contentious things from my comments. I remember yeah that I literally had to write in this year's preview. I will die on this hill yeah when it comes to Lindel

because I've had so many arguments with Starris fans saying this is God's gift to defense, and he doesn't really suppress. Yeah, the underlying numbers aren't there, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's weird. I like watching him play, but you're right. Every time you look at the numbers, there's kind of a, they don't align with what you're seeing. He looks good, and he has great defensive numbers when it comes to defending entries.

But if he does all those things good, why? Right. There's something else going on. What is going on, right? Yeah, well John Carlson was like my main guy I mean he had the offensive numbers So it's a different different comparison But he was always one of those guys where when you watch him play

You're like this guy's the best defenseman in the league Like with how good he looks physically on the ice And then for years you would look at his underlying number He'd be like he's like average like he's okay He's not bad but he's not the best And then last year he just exploded and at a crazy year So I don't know I think the issue with Carlson is spending so much time with Olsner

Yeah maybe maybe maybe defensemen or voodoo Maybe defensemen or the new voodoo Okay let's let's we're at the to one hour mark. Let's quickly bang through what are a couple of your favorite over unders to be targeting and whether it's teams that will or won't make the playoffs in that particular bet or whether it's specific

point totals in either the positive or the negative. So I tweeted, as soon as I saw the playoff odds, I tweeted right away that this is one of the most insane lines I've ever seen in my life. And I've been betting for, I think, the past like five or six years, but the Carolina Hurricanes opened at minus 105 to make the playoffs. And that line right now, I think, is around minus 200, which is still probably too low. Yeah, they're going to make the playoffs.

I'm very confident they're going to make the playoffs. I think the best team in the Metro, especially after adding Gardner. And I just could not get enough money down on that bet. I mean, their point total is still over under 95 and a half. Yeah. And they had 99 last year. Yeah. And they are better this year.

Exactly. So I guess the kind of question or concern is whether they're going to get the same goaltending and their goalie coach left. And we've seen with the hurricanes over the years that what and other teams, what a big difference having even just average goaltending can do compared to bottom three goaltending. So I guess that would be the one concern. But you're right. The skater group is so good. They have guys who are just going to get better. Their blue lines better. and it was already the best in the league.

So I just, you're right. I don't, I don't see why people would expect them to be worse. And I think even their, their Stanley Cup odds were 28 to 1 or something at some point. I don't know if they've, if they've dropped, if people have been betting it down since. But, I think it's still around 25. Yeah. So that would be an interesting kind of a long shot as well. I think even to win a vision is like five to one.

That feels like a decent one to me. So I've got a couple other ones here. The hurricane's over for sure. I kind of like this blue jackets over 83 and a half. Yeah, I like that one a lot. I think that's too low. I think the hate's gone too far. The hate has gone too far.

I feel like people overrate how much of an impact a superstar has. I think they see what happens in the NBA and like, oh, yeah, they're going to be a bottom feeder. I think there's enough there to still be competitive depending on what the Gulting does. And if you believe in Elvis, then that's a no-brainer. I do believe in Elvis. So, yeah, Columbus was one of the ones I've definitely bet on. And then the other two big ones for me were, as you could probably guess, from the tone of this podcast, were Anaheim and Minnesota.

Ducks 80 and a half. Yeah. Yeah. I like that. Yeah, Minnesota 86 and a half is interesting too. I mean, I even like, you know, Montreal, 88 and a half. Yeah. They had 96 last year.

So I think if you think they were just an average team, that's still like a four point cushion on that. So I did like that one. I think the point tolls have been, I've gotten a lot sharper. It's not like, I think, like five years ago. where you could like parlay eight of them and be reasonably confident that you were gonna make a lot of money. Yeah.

But they've gone sharp with that, but the playoff odds that they put out were honestly insane to me. Yeah, I mean, Jets still, the fact that there's still a plus $130 to not make the playoffs. I mean, honestly, even like, there's like stuff like Canucks minus 175.

Like, I feel great about betting against the Knox making the playoffs. Like, it's crazy to me. You're the thing, like even the lightning to make the playoffs was minus, 400, which is an implied probability of 80%. Yeah. And that was, that's just insane.

So, like, just betting on the top teams to make the playoffs is really good value, betting on some of the bad teams to miss the playoffs. I think Edmonton was, like, minus 200 or something silly like that. Yeah. I get your arguments about the Panthers. I still like them, uh, not make the playoffs plus 180. That's a great bet. Like that's, I mean, just, you're just betting on, uh, you're betting on, uh, you're betting on the

That's what it is. It's not about betting teams. Like, if you think in my right mind, I want to bet on Minnesota, I want to confirm that I do not, but it's just the values there. The values there. And that's the biggest thing about betting is you don't bet teams. You bet value. I like it. That's well said.

Yeah. Let's, okay, let's power through some player props here. I'm going to give you some, let's go through all the major awards and you tell me if there's anyone you like. Let's do the Vesna first. it's I mean betting on goal attending yeah betting on all these awards I should say beyond like art Ross and in rocket richard which are clearly like merit based because they literally who has the most or sorry um yeah who is the most goals and who has the most points like that's it's not leaving it up to voter bias for a lot of these awards though you're basically betting on like who's going to be

the best story and that's what makes awards betting tricky because it might not be the best most deserving player. So it's kind of tough crawling into the headspace for a lot of the voters, especially with the Vezna where it's the GMs and John Gibson

has never finished inside the top seven. So who knows? Anderson plus 550. I'm just worried about his ability, like I think he's great. I think he's deserving

in terms of his actual impact on the Leafs. And if you believe that the Leafs are going to be when the Atlantic finally and kind of leapfrog the lightning as the case I was making early on, then you should be getting in on that

because that would make for a good story. But I just worry, like, if he winds up with like a 9-18 C percentage which he does every single season, whether that's going to be enough to win that in voters' minds. Well, if he gets 40 wins, I don't think it'll matter to the voters that run this league. Flurry at plus 1100? I think the issue there...

If you think Vegas is going to be the best team. If you think Vegas will be the best team, yeah, I think the issue might be games played, because I think they want to limit his starts. But then again, we saw Bishop and Lainer get nominated last year, which was a bit surprising. Yeah, Price plus 1,200 just based on the argument that he was so good in the second half, is Kerry Price.

And I think if the habs do make the playoffs, I think there's going to be a lot of, there's a real groundswell because he'll be so responsible for it, but also because the media loves carry price. Yeah, I feel like the interesting ones would be teams that you don't think would make the playoffs. and if they do on the basis of a strong goal-tending season, they might be a great bet like Gibson and I'm like he could be the guy that carries them and I don't know what his odds are, but they're not. I mean, yeah, they're giving me a good value if you think there's a chance,

which we've kind of laid out the case for. DeNorris? I like John Klingberg this year, especially if there's this hype around Dallas and he was injured a bit last year, the year before, I personally think he was the best defenseman in the league. And if Dallas keeps being this defensive team, he might start earning the reputation he deserves as a strong two-way defender.

So that's my choice for this year. Yeah, Klingberg and Yossi at Plus 1400 seem like good. Those are good. Especially Yosey, like the storyline of like Suban's gone. He's going to have more responsibility. It's his team now. It's his turn. It's his turn.

People love watching him. Like he could put up 65, 70 points or whatever and be right there. So I'm with that. Who else has a turn that hasn't come up yet? I think Yosie's there. Morgan Riley? It's not his turn yet. His turn will come in two or three years maybe.

But if he carries Cody Sisi, he might deserve it. I don't think he's going to have the statistical resume for it because I just don't see the offensive upside to warrant it. But Patrangelo, like, come on. After the postseason he had, the fact that Pryko is eating up all the toughest defensive minutes now. Patrangelo is the guy in terms of, like, it's his turn. Let's get him one before he retires. So if you're going to go with a legacy pick, that would be an interesting one. Calder, I was interested in McCar at Plus 500 and Quinn Hughes at Plus 2000,

and then I noticed that there's been four defensemen to win the award since I was born. Ekblatt in 2015, Myers in 2010, Barrett Jackman in 2003, and Brian Barrett in 97. So historically, you really have to have things kind of go your way to win it if you're a defenseman. it seems like if you're a guy like Hughes or Kako and you put up 30 goals or 60 points, you're probably going to take this award. I think I would take McCar, especially at those odds, this year because Hughes would be my next pick and he's starting on the second line, second power play. And you can obviously play into a bigger role, but the fact that McCar is already there

on PowerPlay 1 with McKinnon, with Randon, with Landis Cog, with Cadre now too, like it would not be surprised to see him explode in his rookie season and put up 50 points himself. So I think the hype was there last playoffs. The story is there with Barry leaving. I like his chances. Yeah, I think that's fair.

The Jack Adams, I like Vigno at plus 2,800. I just made the case of like if the pliers make the play. Yeah, that is the case. The coach to wins this is the team. makes the playoffs after not having made it the year before. That's like the stone cold doc. Is Boudreau on the board?

I didn't see him on this or I didn't have him. But yeah, if you like him there, I mean, if you're in on. If he's not on the board, his odds have to be like insane, right? And if you think that the wild will be in the mix when everyone thinks they're going to be terrible, it just feels like the value is there because we know Boudreau is a great coach. And even if they sneak in as the 8th C, they're like, oh my God, the wild. Yeah. They made the playoffs.

and I feel like that is a more reasonable chance than people give the team credit for. Dallas Aikins is well similar to what you were saying about Gibson and if the ducks make it. And he's a new coach as well and people love new coaches. And like there's going to be so many stories written about his work with these young guys, how this has been brewing since their San Diego days. So that's an interesting one. I mean, I even like Jim Montgomery and Rod Brindamore both plus 1800 if you believe that the stars and the canes are going to have awesome seasons. Like they made the playoffs last year.

but if they win the division, like we think they might. If they just explode. So GMO the Year was really funny to me because Dale Tallinn is the favorite, which is so outrageous because he spent the most money, right? I mean, when you can spend $100 million on Bobrovsky, Strachman and Brett Connolly, that right there cements you as the mastermind behind this operation. GM of the year is after the second round they vote, right? Yeah. Yeah. basically just got to go with who you think the top four teams are

and which teams might have like cap flexibility to make a deal at the deadline well the most outrageous thing is kelly mccriman is on this list at plus 1500 and i think vegas is going to be great but he didn't build this team so that's that's like he doesn't really have space to put them over the top with a deadline exactly so like if they if he doesn't do anything let's say during the season monumental let's say they had a seven seventh defenseman or something and Vegas still wins the West. Are people going to give him,

like I know he's been there and he's been George McPhee's right-hand man, but it seems weird that we're kind of just giving all of that credit to him. I don't know about that. I guess, you know, Joe Sackick, plus eight, 800 isn't great odds. I think he's next after Tallinn,

but just based on the Colorado hype and the fact that, like, a lot of these teams that added a lot of guys, right? Like, that's what you're looking at. That's what kind of the story writes itself. Is Eric Cholsky there for the Carolina Hurts? He should be. He should be.

All right. Let's do the three main ones then. The Art Ross, the Rocket Richard and the Heart. Man, the Art Ross, McDavid's over under is 1-16 and a half. He had 116 last year. I think that's a really, really high total. At the same time, I would not be betting on the low side of that. That is probably his range, which is frightening.

I know. Because he doesn't play with, he probably won't play with anyone good and he might still get there. Do you think there's any chance that anyone takes the rocket recharge from Ovi? Yes. I like Austin Matthews to do that this year because I think he's going to get more minutes than he usually does. And he has the same goals for 60 as OV in the last couple of years. And if the Leaps power play improves, like some people think it might, if he has Nielander on his side, I think this is the year that OV is usurped.

Yeah, it seems it's it's tough to Once the season gets going If you're betting against Obey and then he's leading to Lee again You're gonna wind up feeling like an idiot But Matthew's a plus 650 I like line A at plus 1,200 It seems like the hate's gone a bit too far I think he's got a lot to prove

And Pasternack plus 2,500 Passer neck at plus 2,500 It feels like a really good value bet Yeah Like I'm not sure if he's gonna score 50 goals But based on that power play and who he plays with I feel like it's within the reasonable range of outcomes for him I think he, last year, his goals for sticking on the power play was the second or third most since 2007.

Yeah. No, he's a beast and he shoots a ton. And so I like that bet as a bit of a long shot. And for the heart, I like Matthews at plus 950 and McKinnon at plus 1,000. And Sebastianahoe, I couldn't even find him on the board, but I imagine you'd get him for some tasty odds as well. Yeah. Yeah. I like Matthews this year.

I think he's going to show a lot just from people saying, seeing his efficient. see like translate into bigger minutes because the fact that he's played under 19 minutes his entire career I think really deters from how people perceive his value like we see how revered mckinan is but I think a lot of that is him playing 22 minutes a night and it'd be I don't think it'd be a stretch for matthews to hit those same totals if he got those same minutes yeah I guess the only yeah he's I think for him like the lease would either need to uh finish first in the atlantic or he just have to have insane goal totals because there's so much around him in terms of Marner and Tavares and other players who will be putting up high point totals that I feel like

for that award we typically look at like the guy who's carrying his offense the most and it might be tougher to do for him just based on his surroundings not as a fault of his own whereas for McKinnon like he's going to need to be their best player by a significant margin for them to reach their ceiling. All right Dom. Plus. some stuff. Where can people check out your work? And what are you up to now? Right now, I'm taking a much-deserved break after writing 31 season previews over the last month. It basically is a analytical deep dive on literally every single team more info than you could ever possibly need. And if you want to be educated on teams that aren't the ones you normally follow,

I feel like it is probably one of the best resources around. And usually I would be humble, but I spent a lot of time on this, so I'm not going to be humble this time. Well, it was great work, man. I really enjoyed reading it and following it. And it was quite an undertaking that you completed. So you enjoy your time off here a little bit. Everyone out there listening, enjoy the games finally starting. Hopefully, you've done all your prep work.

Hopefully we helped you make some bets or win some pools here today. And, yeah, man, this was a blast. I'm glad we got to do this. I'm glad we got to do this in this swanky studio. and we'll see you next time I have you on. Might be in an Airbnb. Might be back here. We'll see, but I'm sure it'll be a nice place.

Yeah, I have no doubt about you putting me in a nice dig. The Hockey PDOCast with Dimitri Filippovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Filippovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.