The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 317: Karlsson versus Carlson

Episode Date: October 9, 2019

Andrew Berkshire joins the show to help rank the best defensemen in the league.5:45 Honourable Mentions9:30 Rasmus Dahlin12:30 Jaccob Slavin15:25 Alex Pietrangelo vs. Colton Parayko19:45 Thomas Chabot23:00 Oliver Ekman-Larsson26:30 John Carlson31:30 Morgan Rielly35:00 Drew Doughty42:00 PK Subban47:30 Roman Josi54:00 Seth Jones57:15 John Klingberg and Victor Hedman1:03:45 Brent Burns1:09:30 Mark Giordano and Erik Karlsson1:17:00 Teaser for ranking wingersSee acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Welcome to the HockeyedioCast. My name is Dimitri Philpovich. And joining me is my good buddy Andrew Berkshire. Andrew, what's going on, man? Not much. I'm excited to be back on again. I am working on some stuff for Sportsnet this week, but other than that, there's, it's just hockey season. I'm glad to be able to watch hockey for once. It's been too long. It's great. Every night you just go, I mean, the schedule early on has been a bit weird. Like, there's like the Rangers, for example, had two amazing, really fun games, and then they're just like off for a week randomly. And I know, like, the

and I think the wild and a couple other teams out there have a weird four or five day stretch without games here. But yeah, for the most part, the hockey's been really entertaining. The coaches haven't taken away the fun yet. And it's been a lot of high scoring, fast-paced action. And it just gets every night kind of be able to sit back and turn on these games and enjoy them. Yeah, I was actually talking to my dad the other day and he was asking me how things were in the season because he hasn't got a chance to watch much hockey yet. I was just explaining to him that outside of the first round of the playoffs, this is kind of the month of hockey. I like the most because it's not only is it new and you get to see the new players on new teams

and rookies breaking in, but like you said, the coaching hasn't taken the fun out of it yet. Everything's a little bit disorganized. There's more run and gun offense. So I find usually November, things crack down hard and the scoring goes away and then it kind of comes back a little bit around the holidays and evens out as the year goes on. But October is one of my favorite months for hockey. Yeah, it's like October. It's the start of March after the trade.

line where you're just interested to see where the new acquisitions fit on their teams and the playoff raises are heating up and then it's the first round of the playoffs. I think those are like my three sort of peak peaks of the NHL season. But yeah, I know we're in it right now. It's really exciting. And so on today's show, you and I are going to, we're going to rank the wingers and a defenseman. So for those of you that haven't listened yet for whatever reason, go back and listen episode 313 where Andrew and I rank the centers on episode 312 before that. I rank goalies with Kevin Woodley. And so yeah, this is going to be a jam pack one. We're going to try to bang through these. We're going to do top 15 defensemen, top 15 winger. He's going to do some honorable

mentions and try to be in and out of here. But considering we went like an hour and 20 minutes on just centers, it's going to be a challenge for us. Maybe a marathon, but we'll try to keep it short. All right. Well, let's start with defensemen because I feel like I'm much more prepared or I have a better feel for it. It was easier for me to sort of narrow it down and whittle it down to a top 15 and then a group of honorable mentions, whereas the wingers was such a mess. And I felt so bad leaving a number of the names off of it that I kept going on and on with my honorable mentions or trying to move stuff around. So for defensemen, I don't know if you feel the same way, but there's a lot of good players, but I did feel like I felt like very comfortable

with my top 10, and then I felt pretty comfortable with the next five, and then the next five after that. Yeah, it's definitely, defensemen seemed to align themselves pretty decently in tiers. there's like not necessarily clearly separated but there's enough separation to to kind of understand where you need to put people and you can see where careers are trending. I feel like we pay a lot of attention to the defensemen. So there's always like more background information, I guess, even though they might be a little bit harder to evaluate overall. Maybe that's why we pay so much attention to them. But yeah, Wingers, I definitely had a lot more trouble. I feel like there was a lot of people that I was leaving off and guys that I was, you know, feeling bad.

about not being on the list and and guys who I talk highly of often that didn't make it. So that was a tough one. But defenseman, I found the bigger trouble for me was just around like 14, 15, 16 mark around there. I was like, who am I going to put on the list? Who's just off of it? That was where like the demarcation line was for me. Yeah, if we did, if we had set it out of top 20, I feel like our lives would have been a bit easier. But it's good.

It makes it more elite. It makes them more prestigious. and it makes it more important. And it's tricky about it in defensemen, obviously, right? Because there's so many factors that go into it. I feel like our definitions of what makes a good defenseman still vary so much. I mean, you know, only so many guys can be like your peak Eric Carlson where he's just like good at everything and just dominates whenever he's on the ice.

For a lot of these guys, there are certain strengths that are games. And as long as they're stronger than the weaknesses, we can kind of overlook it. but it's a very subjective thing I feel like still in terms of what people prefer in our defensemen or what that defenseman looks like or plays like and so that's what makes this discussion particularly interesting especially when you get into the teens and in that range you're discussing because it a guy being 12th or is a guy being 18th could be flipped very easily just based on what you might prefer personally yeah absolutely and there are some guys on the list that I have that I don't necessarily think are amazing, but their numbers were just so

spectacular last year specifically that I couldn't in good conscience not put them on the list. Okay, well, who were a couple of the names that, you know, you said there that you struggled around that, you know, 15, 16 range in terms of figuring out who you wanted to just miss the cut first, who you wanted to kind of jam in there. Who were a couple of names that you really struggle with that ultimately fell a little bit short, but you really wanted to get in there? Yeah, so I had Chris LaTang in the Honorable Mensions. I think he is, like he has all the skill and talent to be in that top 15,

but he's getting slightly older and his injury history is just so extreme that I was like, if I was trying to say like, who am I going to start like a team with and I get to pick one defenseman and everybody's available and I'm picking like 15th, all the other guys are taken, would I take Chris LaTangue? even if I only have to win this year. And I just couldn't justify it. There's too much risk inherent there. And you never know.

Like I feel like every time he is healthy, even like 80%, he's phenomenal. And that weighs in heavily. Man, that's so little of the time. Yeah. I mean, here's games played since 2011, 12, which is pretty much, you know, the past 10 years almost. It's 51, 35, 37, 69, nice. 71, 49, 65. And so, I mean, there's a lot of seasons there where he's good to miss like 15 plus games and some even over half the season.

And it's kind of ironic that that one year where he was actually healthy and he played 79 games in 2017, 18 was the year where all of his percentages went into the toilet along with the Penguins team. And he was in trade rumors and because his plus minus was so bad. And, you know, he really righted the ship last year. He wound up missing his sort of annual 17 games, but he was so good while he was on the ice. and he does so much for that Penguins team that I kind of overlooked those injury concerns a bit and I bumped him up to nine, but I totally get your argument of

if you were just building a team and you were basically ranking this as like, okay, which defense would I take next if I was starting a group? I would definitely be concerned with the age and with the injury concerns and I might prefer a guy who I have ranked lower on this list just because I know he'd be there all the time.

But in terms of ability and contribution, I kind of had the benefit over looking at a little bit here just for the purposes of this exercise because I can. So I had him at nine, but I totally get where you're coming from in terms of all those concerns. Yeah, and I'll just throw out my other honorable mentions here and just a quick explainer on why. I had Matthias Ekholm there. I really like at home, like visually and in certain data applications. But overall, his game, I think we're going to see this year a little bit that he, won't necessarily be as great without P.K. Suban there in Nashville. I think that

at home is more prone to mistakes in transitioning the puck than people actually believe. So that keeps him just outside there. Shea Theodore, I think, is on the precipice of being a phenomenal number one defenseman. He's among the top puck movers in the entire league. He's incredible in a lot of aspects of the game. But he kind of hasn't quite fully broken out yet. so I kept on the edge. And then Zach Werenski, who I think is like a potential top 10 guy, just had a brutal year last year. Things didn't go well for him.

The chemistry with Jones didn't seem to be as strong last year. So I want to see a return to form from him this season with a little bit more pressure on the Columbus Blue Jackets without Panarin and Barovsky to put him in the top 15. Yeah, no, that's fair. I like all those names you mentioned. And I've got a number of others, but I'm going to wait to say them until we get into this top 15 because maybe, you know, you're going to have a guy in here on your top 15 that I had an honorable mention that we can just get into them there. So let's just start this list.

Give me a, give me your 15th guy. My 15th guy is a newcomer, Rasmus Dahlene. Ooh. Yeah. I bit hard on this one just because if you look at last year with the Sabres and what they've been able to do early this year, like the team really changes when Dalline's on the ice. it's a huge difference. And, you know, he's maybe what everyone thought Rasmus Ristel Leinen was going to be. But, man, I think he's got like Norris Trophy potential in there.

He is so good. He's so slick with the puck. He creates so much offense. And just his ability to move the puck, you know, keeps the puck out of his own zone. It's a great defensive asset. So I think he's already among, if not the league's elite, like that tier below. Yeah. I mean, what he will accomplish at the age of AT and especially.

especially with what was around him. And early on this season, we've, I mean, it makes sense that he would keep taking more steps and developing into that Norris caliber defensemen. But some of the stuff he does, like, he, like, scores that, like, breakaway goal against the penguins and just his, uh, his willingness and his ability to do stuff that other defensemen simply can't is, uh, is a sight to behold. And so I had him just missing the cut just purely because of the quality of the group of defensemen that we have in this league at this moment.

But, um, if you're just speaking in terms of upside or, or, guys that if we do this exercise again next year hopefully uh he has a very very good chance of being well inside of the top 15 i mean the sky is the limit for him i just i just felt a little bit uneasy based on what we've seen so far bumping him ahead of the guys who i felt have shown us a bit more at this point of the career but uh that's just purely because he's only been in the league at the one season clearly dmitri is a coach bias towards the veterans i mean listen let's get uh let's get uh let's get marco scandela and henry yokioki harry you out there and uh and you know see what happens. You know what, to be fair, though, to Phil Housley and everything was going

horribly wrong and maybe, or he probably should have done this sooner, but as last year went along, we did see Daly and really start to eat up more, more minutes and get trusted more by that coaching staff, which is something we like never see 18-year-old defensemen really get to do. And he started wrestling away more and more minutes and even on the top hour play from Ristelainen. And so, you know, that was the one kind of positive there. that that actually was happening. Now he probably could have been playing even more. And maybe if they had just given him all that usage right out of the gate,

his numbers would look better and I'd be more willing to embrace him being in this top 15. But yeah, he'd just miss the cut for me. Yeah, it's always fun to play the hindsight of its 2020 game. And you always wonder, you know, if this guy graduated earlier, would you have been even better playing like in a more challenging role in the NHL? And we never really know, but it's always fun. Do you have it, 15? I've got Jacob Slavin.

Oh, that's a good one. Um, it's interesting because like his goals above replacement numbers, for example, on evolving wild don't look very favorable. And, um, I believe the canines are actually were outscored with him on the ice at 5-1-5, but, uh, he's just, he's so good defensively. And he's certainly not, um, he's like an anomaly for me because I typically don't, uh, prioritize defensemen with his sort of traditional, uh, defensive defenseman skill sets. But he really is kind of the modern day defensive defense. men, sort of taking the keys from Nicholas Jalmersner, or whoever you would have had coming

before him in terms of his ability to just kind of cover up people's mistakes. And even when you watch him, if he makes one little mistake in terms of being overly aggressive and kind of pinching or going for a poachek and missing out, his recoverability and his sort of ability to cover ground and, you know, get back in the play and stop it from actually materializing it to something is just bar none in this league. And the other thing that I really love about him and what I really do value from defensemen, especially to play a lot of minutes

against other teams' best players, is discipline and the ability to stay out of the box and actually be on the ice. And for him, I mean, he's played 311 games, 5,600 minutes at 5-1-5, and he's taken 18 penalties in that time, verse 23 drawn. And that sort of ability to just, you know,

be aggressive with his, stick checks and defending, but sort of know where that line is and never really get caught with his hand in the cookie jar is just so remarkable to me. And that's ultimately why I had him as high on this list, despite the fact that, you know, his offensive numbers or his kind of traditional counting stats aren't up there with some of the other names we're going to discuss. Yeah, in a way, I feel like he's kind of like Ryan O'Reilly of defensemen, right? Where like O'Reilly, you know, obviously puts up more offense. But for his skill level, I think O'Reilly maybe puts up less offense than people would expect of a play.

of his caliber. Is that fair? I mean, I know he's had great seasons, but you look at him and, you know, maybe if he wasn't as focused on defense, he might be an 85 point guy, you know. Slavin, as well as Pesci to a lesser extent on Carolina, are two of the most active defenders. Like, if you're coming into the Carolina zone, they are in your face. And like you said, Slaven doesn't take very many minors, neither does Pesci. That's quite the impressive feat from the both of those guys.

It's like that those two are an interesting case to me because they, by traditional stats, are very underwhelming. But by all the like microstats that I'm able to use of sport logic, both of them come out, you know, at least in the top 25 for defensemen. Yeah. And this is sort of like, yeah, he's kind of an embodiment of just what makes this hurricane seem special in terms of, you know, the way he plays and how. individually or kind of just in terms of like if you look at identify one skill set might not necessarily be that great but if you put it all together it kind of exceeds that so I just love I love me some Jacob Slavin and I had him at 15 um let's keep going with your list who do you have next all right next on my list is Alex Petrangelo who I know many

people will say is too low I didn't have on my list oh really I not even honorable mention he item is an honorable mention okay okay do you have him above or below Pareko Well, I have Pareko at 13. So I had like, I'd say I'd probably have Patrangelo like 18th or something, maybe, let's say, maybe 17th. And then I had Preyko at 13. Yeah, I have Petrangelo a little bit above Pareko. Preco was like right below my honorable mentions in the rankings.

What stands out to me about Petrangelo, which is I still cannot, can to this day, cannot figure out, is he is an extraordinarily good, even strength defenseman. and he is absolutely bonkers bad on all special teams. Like he's a terrible penalty killer, terrible power play player, and he plays big minutes on both. Right. And I just don't get it.

So like he's a guy who I think we would maybe even think more of if he was played a little bit more to his strengths. You know, second power play, second penalty kill, or maybe not even on the penalty kill at all. He's a weird one, but he's able to dominate games. And as a transition player, he's extremely dominant. he is he's uh really skilled i've kind of knocked him in the past because i felt like the public perception of him because of all like the team canada uh sort of connections and sort of him always

being in a discussion for the norris because the blues have always been good defensively and he's kind of been sort of the face of their franchise there for the past however many years i felt like he's been a bit overrated now listen he was tremendous last post season and i'll give him credit for his performance there and and he played way better than i even thought he could at this point of his career. But the reason why I docked him a bit and why I had Pareco slightly higher on this list is because I couldn't overlook the fact that the reason that I felt that he exploded so much, especially offensively in the postseason, was because Pereko basically locked down the other team and said, I'll handle everything important. You can just kind of rove a bit more and unleash yourself

offensively. And it worked out great. It was a perfect sort of marriage for for the blues and credit to Craig Barube for making that adjustment. But he was a guy that over the years was relied upon. along with Jay Bowmey's sort of play against other teams' best players. And sort of once they flipped that switch, it felt like they got more out of both of those guys. And I guess I just had Pareko slightly higher because I felt like he sort of was tasked with a tougher job and he did so remarkably well in it.

But listen, Petrangelo is a hell of a player and he had an awesome postseason and he's right there. Yeah, for sure. Could you have 14? I mean, before we get off Pareko, because I had him at 13, so a little quick thing about him here. I mean, After round one, so they played Dallas, Boston, and San Jose, or I guess Dallas, San Jose,

and then Boston in that order. He played 435-15 minutes in those 20 games against those teams. The splews gave up eight goals against in that time. He drew more penalties than he took, and he was playing, like, the majority of his minutes against Sig Annes line against the top six in San Jose, and then against the Berger online in the Stanley Cup final. And he was just such a freak and sort of his ability to, impact the game with his reach without necessarily even doing anything where you can like see

forwards kind of fearing his ability and that reach when they're entering the zone and dumping it in sooner they have to or or freaking out and panicking about it and just sort of that like trickle-down effect that he has with his skating and his reach um it's it's really unlike anything we have in this league and so that's why i value him so much and i feel like if he was on a different team and he was asked to do even more um he would be fully capable so maybe it's It's a little bit of a sort of projection on my part where I feel like he has even more to give than he has so far. And that's saying something considering how important he was to a Stanley Cup winner last year. Yeah, yeah, Perico, I feel like when he's on, he's in that top 10 range.

He's so good. But I think it's more like the consistency of him being able to give those performances is a question mark. And I think that's maybe part of why he plays fewer minutes in St. Louis. and you would expect a player of his caliber to play. But yeah, last year in the playoffs, he was a monster. Like, absolute beast down the stretch there. So nothing to be taken away from him there. At 14, I have Thomas Shabbat.

I have Shabbat considerably higher. Oh. Yeah, I probably should have had him higher. I don't know. I just couldn't bump him over some of the names I had ahead of him. We'll get to those in a minute here. But he was markable, and he was one of the very, very few bright spots clearly on the center as last year, but he was, I believe, amongst all defenders,

seventh and goals above replacement, 10th and points, six to five-on-five production, and that's all despite missing those 12 games in the middle of the season. So he's a hell of a player, make the case why he should be higher than 14 on my list. Yeah, I had him all the way up at number nine, and the thing that stood out to me about Shabbat was, like, Carlson, when he was on the senators, stood out in every category, right? and everybody was saying, well, you know, it's easy for a guy like that to stand out when the other guys in your team are crap. And that can apply to Shabbat as well. But while Carlson was able to play with the Mark Stones of the world and, you know, Mike Hoffman, he got a lot of minutes with the top guys on the senators.

Shabbat, they couldn't really do that because they didn't really have anyone, especially at the end of the year. Even when you would expect things to fall off for Shabbat, he continued to be dominant. So I look at, he wasn't able to be as dominant as Carlson was, but his numbers relative to his team are monstrous. And I just couldn't ignore that. He's such a difference maker for a team with so little to work with that I was just so impressed last year. You know, you could kind of see things coming, but I don't think I expected him to be as good as he is. He's a very dangerous player and, you know, can play all situations if he's needed to. I just think the sky's the limit for that guy.

Yeah, no, it is. What he did last year, especially considering his circumstances, was very, very impressive. And he's also one of those guys, similar to what we were talking about with guys like Theodore and Wrenski and Dali and where he should only get better

and rise up on this list. Maybe as I was making this list, I do feel like I kind of prioritized or favored guys who have done it for a number of years, just because I felt more comfortable in sort of their projection or their ability, whereas some of these younger guys, maybe I was,

they're leaving the door open to a bit more sort of volatility or variability in their numbers, but you're right, that's probably unfair to them just because it's not their fault that they've only kind of been in a league for one or two years. And Shabbat was amazing and what we've seen of them so far. Now, I love this list so far because you and I have differed so much. Like we're kind of in the similar ballparks, but, you know, you're not having Latang and me having him at 9, me having Shabbat here at 14 and you having him at 9. And it's nice that there's actually some healthy debate as opposed to the centers where I felt like we were mostly on the same page.

Yeah, I mean, I guess it makes sense that we're kind of evaluating it in two different ways. So we're getting these very similar but dissimilar at the same time, right? The order is very all over the place. Who did you have at 13? So I had a slave one at 15. I had Shabbat of 14 and I had break at 13. So let's catch up with your. list because I think we've only done a couple so far. At 13 I had one. This one might be controversial,

but I had Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Oh, he was on my honorable mentions. Oh, really? Really. Wow. I thought that you would have him even higher. He's a weird one, right? Because it's kind of like Shabbat in that he plays on a team where for the longest time he's had no help. Right. And it's hard to really understand the value of those guys have and how much of it is like. standing out because there's no one around there or how much their numbers could be held back because there's no one around. And I have kind of been bullish on Ekman Larson not being as good as a lot of media said for several years. And I think that kind of coincided with a lot of the, when people were really talking about him as like one of the top defenders in the game,

he had a couple down years in a row. And then in 2017-18, he was unbelievable good. I didn't dig into the numbers as heavily in 2018-19, but I would assume that he was still good, maybe not as good. But I couldn't keep him out of the top 15 just because a year ago he was top three-worthy.

And it's tough to ignore that. He's had such a strange career, right? Because it feels like he's been around forever now, and I guess he has in a way, but maybe because it's because of some of the coyotes teams he's played on and the lack of help that you mentioned. In a way, and maybe this is kind of unfair, but it's like a psychological element where I feel like he hasn't gotten to where I've wanted him to, but maybe that is purely just kind of a perception thing. And as you mentioned two years ago, he was great by the underlying numbers.

So yeah, he's an interesting one. I certainly considered him. I had him right there with Patrangelo and a couple others. on my honorable mention slash just missed the cut but i didn't have my top 15 but uh i guess we'll see this year i mean on paper um especially on the blue line the coyotes certainly have given him more help and when healthy they have some interesting names on there so i guess we'll see how uh how he plays moving forward and and whether potentially being on a better sort of deeper team um affects him for the better yeah and and hopefully i i always

like to see great players in the best situation possible so that we can see how high they can rise, right? And I feel like the coyote's a combination of poor scouting and maybe bad systems has led to some poor choices. Like they kind of acquired Alex Goligowski right before he fell off the face of the earth. And maybe he'll rebound a little bit because he's not ancient. But, you know, same kind of thing with Nicholas Yalmersen, who has been a premier defensive defenseman for a really long time. And he still has a decent impact defensively, but he's cratered so bad in other areas that I don't even think he's a top four defenseman anymore.

And they had him playing big minutes. So it's interesting to see how things unfold there. And Jacob Chikrin being healthy is a huge thing for them as well. So all sorts of balls in the air. And they're so committed to that group. Like all those guys you mentioned have at least a number of years left on their deal, I believe. And they're all, uh, yeah, it's, it's an interesting.

thing going on in Arizona. We'll see how it plays out. Let's do give me your 12 and 11 now so that we can get that at like neat little top 10 range. Yeah, so 12 was the guy that I didn't really want to put on the list, but I couldn't deny because of the past couple years he's had and that's John Carlson. He is the offense only guy that I think a lot of people peg Carlson as and like Eric Carlson, the other Carlson. I think John Carlson is pretty poor without the puck, to put it mildly. And he historically has not been a very good transition player either. He's mostly a offense and power play guy.

But the last couple of years, he's had phenomenal years. Now, I don't know if that's due to usage or linemates, you know, the way he's been put out on the ice. I'm not entirely sure. I feel like I would need to spend a thousand times more effort in researching him than I have available to me to figure that out. And I just, there's something about his game that I just don't really like. Like if I was the GM and I could pick any defenseman, he would not be very high on my list at all. But he's just been so dominant in the last couple of years that you can't not have him on the list. So I had him at eight because I just could not.

overlook or dismiss the statistical resume of his over the past couple years. And I'm right there with you. I thought in the past he was wildly overrated. I thought people were banking too much. He was kind of my go-to example of a guy who looks super impressive in a jersey and he looks great skating around on the ice, but the number is never really matched up with that perception. Now, it's interesting you mentioned that his numbers have improved so dramatically over the past two years, because I do think there's probably an element of not playing with Carl Alsner after that. Yes, definitely. Like that was his predominant partner.

And then the past two years, he's played with Michael Kepney, who I really like, Nicholas Jensen, who's sort of been like an analytics darling. And at the start of this year, he's actually played really well with a young defenseman Jonas Seganthal. So I think usage and sort of who he plays with is helpful there. I do have to give him credit because I thought the capitals really should not have signed him after they won the cup. And I thought they should just walk away and thanked him for his services.

and instead they give him that mega eight year, eight million per year deal. And he really took his game to another level last year. I mean, he was seconding goals above a placement behind just Morgan Riley. He is a very kind of, I mean, I think you could probably put a lot of players in his spot on the power plan that would succeed. But I do think he's a good fit there in terms of his ability to read the ice and move the puck, but also with that shot from the point. And so, yeah, he's grown on me over the past couple of years.

and I just couldn't dismiss the sort of overall package that he's put together over the past two years. Yeah, and I feel like the power play thing, like, it's easy for us to like kind of dismiss it and say like, oh, it's kind of like a plug-in play thing. Anybody could kind of be the distributor on there. But I think with how quick and how organized that power play is,

you really do have to have the instincts and the ability to make quick plays and to dish off to the right person at the right time to keep up with that amazing capital's point. power play. So he definitely earns his spot there. And, you know, I don't want to spend the whole time when I'm talking about ripping on him. He is a really good player. It's just, it's interesting how much a defense partner can impact your career because for the three years before Carlisner left Washington, I had Carlson ranked in like the 50, 50 to 55 range for defensemen. And then all of a

sudden he was shooting up into the top 25 top 20 so that's that's a big deal well especially with how many years he's been in the league you typically don't expect players to to improve that much at this point of their career but no you're like in terms of the power play thing like i mean he has that big shot and i think that's why opposing penalty kills do view it as a weapon and so i give him a lot of points for having the hockey sense or the wherewithal to not just like just in falk style just hammer as hammer point shots all the time. He's so good at sucking in a defender and then quickly getting it over to Ovechkin and for that one timer. And so when people are always like, oh my God, how was Ovechkin this open? And I myself sometimes like pause and take a screen grab and you're just like he has so much space. What is this,

what is his team doing? And it's like, well, they are all so scared of all the other weapons on the ice and they're just so good at moving the puck quickly and not giving defense his time to really think. So if you see a guy like Carlson wide open from the point and you know what he's capable of, it's like human instinct to kind of drift towards him. And then if you do that, he'll make you pay with that pass over to Ovechkin. So credit to him for kind of having that multidimensional skill set. Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, talking about having a bad partner and maybe holding back your numbers, that's where I went next on my list. And that was Morgan Riley, who still has a bad partner. Oh, my God. Yeah. And has really taken it to the next level offensively. But Morgan Riley's defensive numbers are still absolutely abysmal. and they have been for the majority of his career. I don't know how much of it is Morgan Riley being a bad defenseman

because there's only so much you can really measure with data at the current stage, at least that I have access to. You can measure how involved someone is, how well they stop attempted zone entries, things like that, how often they get caught pinching, how often they face, you know, odd man rushes themselves from a partner being caught pinching, so you can kind of adjust for context.

you can even look at, I can look at gap control, but only in like how far away they are from the, from the puck carrier. And by all those numbers, Riley is like average, but his defensive numbers in terms of like what happens when he's on the ice have continued to be really terrible. Whether that's because he's always playing with a Ron Hainsey or Cody Cici,

I'm not sure. But until I see some evidence that Riley can rise above that, and that might never happen with the way. Babcock's coaching. I can't put him higher than number 11. See, I've got him seven. I thought he should have been a Norris finalist last year and I completely understand and am aware of all of your concerns in terms of those numbers. I'm just, I'm chalking a lot of that up to, like, if you look at his list of partners over his career, it's stunning. It's like, you should line it up next to a Evgeny Malkin's list of wingers over his career because it's like the rotating door

of guys who just pretty much right after that just drop out of the league or were already so washed up or we're never good to begin with is stunning and it's a bit disappointing because I thought last year after the acquired Jake Muzon I was like oh finally he's going to get a really good partner and this is awesome and now we're back to him not having a partner again and the fact that that's the case we just talked about the effect that has on a guy like Carlson and how once he started playing with someone better or even just like competent, he exploded. And I just think that is the case here.

When I watch Riley, I don't really witness a guy who is a disaster defensively who has no idea what he's doing or where he's going. I think it is sort of a contextual or circumstance-based thing. And the offensive ability in his production, albeit in a great situation on the other end of the days because of all the players he's playing with, was so overwhelmingly good last year

that I bumped him up all the way to seven. And I actually didn't even really like, I mean, I question all of my guys on this list because it's so tough. And you're always kind of trying to tinker with it. But I felt pretty good about that window for him. And I guess if you have him at 11, like, that's sort of the similar range. But maybe I'm just a little bit higher on him and sort of overlooking some of those statistical flaws of his. Yeah. I mean, we're kind of like, we're mincing over a couple spots, right?

It's, it's, it's, it's, it's still in that same kind of tierish area. It's more like, uh, I guess it's just, it's a number. So we're in your top 10 now, right? Yeah, we're in my top. So I'm really excited because, uh, you know, we were joking last time when we did the centers that Anzee Kopitar, uh, you talked me out of it and I had them way too high. And I believe I had him at 12. I'm on my centers list. Um, I've got Drew Daudi on my 12 here.

And, uh, oh, I'm, I'm not feeling great about it. I got to be honest. He was very bad last year. He had a negative goal to rubble placement. The Kings with him on the ice had a 46% shot and expected goal share. Now, here's what I will say. I find it hard to believe that he just completely lost it and is not good anymore.

I never thought he was as good as people. made him out to be during those Dowdy versus Carlson for the Norris years. At the same time, I thought the hate went too far because people would just point to some of his, you know, counting stats or whatever and be like, oh, like, how can you think this guy's better than Carlson? I thought as a puck mover and his ability to dominate territorially while he was on the ice made him a very, very, very good defense. And last year, I'm just going to give you the list of defensemen he played with a 5-15. Derek Forbort

Deon Fanoff Oscar Fandenberg Jake Mazen for a bit before he got traded Fanchinberg got traded too by the way Alec Martinez who probably will get traded

at some point this year Sean Walker Curtis McDermid Daniel Brickley Matt Roy Matt Waugh I don't know how you pronounce that and Paul Adieu

half those are fake to me treat yeah I made up three of those so it's your job as a listener to have to figure out who those guys are, but it's quite the group. And I just think I was kind of valuing what he had done in the past and the fact that, like, if he was 33 or something and just looked like he was completely

physically shot, I'd be like, okay, well, you know, it's time to start taking what he did last year seriously. But I just feel like his numbers might be as bad this year because I think the kings are going to be just as bad. But from like a physical skill set and ability, I guess I'm just valuing his historical track record over the sort of statistical resume that he had last year. Yeah, I will admit that around the same time, when we were talking about the Carlson versus Dowdy wars of traditional media versus us upcoming hot shots, I was very, very much a doughty hater. I wouldn't say that I rated him as like a bad defenseman or anything like that, but I had him in the like five, six best range of players.

And I feel like that was justified based on the data that I had in those years. And then going back on it, not last season, but the season before that and 2016-17, Dowdy was the first and second best defenseman in the league, according to the data that I had. All of the data put together were talking like hundreds and hundreds of statistics. waded out in order to extract the most value. And it was like him and Carlson were pretty much neck and neck. Carlson was significantly head in offense, obviously, but they were head to head in transitional impact.

Dowdy's slightly a better transition defense than Carlson overall. Just because Dowdy just doesn't make mistakes. Carlson, I think, is more active. But Dowdy just, he has the highest pass success rate of any defenseman in the league relative to his team, the lowest turnover rate of any defenseman in the league relative to his team. And that's not like a one-year thing that's like every single year for the past five years. It's nuts how good he is with the puck and moving the puck. So that really makes him stick out to me as one of the top defensemen in the game because I put a lot of value on moving the puck up the ice.

Offensively, I don't think he's that good. No. I think he's okay. A good power play player, but at even strength, I don't think he's a defenseman that you can really rely on to necessarily create offense, like a Carlson or a Klingberg or Brett Burns. But I still have him at number two. Oh. That's how high I have Dowdy. And I could be proven completely wrong there if he has another year like last year. But I think last year has, like you said, a lot more to do with his partners

and a lot more to do with how bad the Kings were than Dowdy personally. a lot of the stuff that I was digging into, he still came out as pretty much the same player. So I was pretty comfortable with keeping him that high up. We'll see if I'm out to lunch there or not. But I have really gained a lot of respect for Drew Dowdy. The more that I've been able to get access to statistics that look at how successful players are at moving the puck

and not creating risk for their teammates. I was not expecting that swerve. I know. When I said I had doubt, out of 12 and you kind of made this noise. I was like, that's why I was like pushing so hard in terms of like my caveats for a while

that high because I thought you didn't even consider him. So yeah, I did not see that coming. Wow. I mean, listen, uh, it's, it's tricky because at the point of doing this list, our most recent,

uh, kind of thing we're working with or, or what we have to consider was clearly not up to his standards. And so it's, it's tough to, um, try to figure out. out how much of that was on him, how much of that was in the situation, and how much of that is

going to continue moving forward. And so it's tricky because he could, let's say he was playing bad and he was partially to blame for all of those struggles and all of those kind of underwhelming numbers last year. Even if he plays better this year, the Kings might be so bad around him that it might not matter and his numbers might still look bad. And so that's going to be sort of something to factor in because it'll be tough to know for sure. But at the same time, if we are evaluating this list from like, all right, if you were putting together a team, who would you pick? And, you know, theoretically, you would put him in a better situation with better players if you were starting a team from scratch, then clearly if you believe that it was

on the team and not on him, he would perform a lot better. So weighing all those things was really tough. Like when I was doing this list, there were just guys that I, in the top 10 that I felt more comfortable with because they were coming off of better years. But I really struggled with it because on the one hand, I could see the argument for bumping him even further. And the other hand, see having him higher. I never really considered him having him second, but I certainly considered them once I got into that, like, sixth range. Yeah. And it was a tough one for me because I knew, like, I know when people listen to this podcast, you're going to be like, what is this guy on? But if you have any faith in my evaluation skills at all, trust me that there's more to

doubty than met the eye last year. And I think that he's going to be fine for a long time still. but I don't think he's in the midst of a steep decline, at least not as much as people believe. So do you want to hear who my 11th guy was? Yeah, absolutely. P.K. Subban. Oh, yeah. See, I had him in the same range. I have Suban at 8, but, you know, he's dropping down from two, three on my list all the way down there because his season wasn't very good. There were a lot of problems that he had last year.

And I think we've brought it up on every podcast that we've done for the last few years here as a hindrance for Subban. dumps the puck out too much. Yeah. He just, he over relies on flipping the puck up, and he's too skilled to keep on doing that. He's got to start making plays.

He's got to start skating. Now, I'm hopeful in terms of the way he trained this summer. It seems like he was more focused on speed instead of strength. I know that as a smaller defenseman, he kind of felt like he needed to be a big guy in order to defend along the boards, and maybe he leaned into that a little bit too, hard and it hurt his speed over the years. So he's got like the agility, but he kind of lost his top end speed over the last couple

years. And I'm wondering if maybe he worked all summer because I got a chance to talk to him at a charity event this year. And he said that he was more focused on bringing the speed back into his games. I wonder if he was capable of doing that. It's tough to do once you hit that 30 mark, right? And he's at the age where the decline sets in. So I have a lot of belief in him the player, but I wouldn't be surprised if he starts to fall off a bit.

Look at you, Insider, Berkshire, breaking some news about P.K. Suban's off-season resume. The one thing, oh, yeah, because I've got insider knowledge there when he's posting an Instagram video every day. You know, like everyone can see what he's doing anyway. Just listen to Andrew Walker. Yes, I had Suban at 11 and I had Dowdy at 12, and they were the two guys where, like, it would have seemed crazy to have them that low a couple years ago, but there was a question marks and they were coming off of poor enough seasons that I had to bump them down a little bit. I mean, I think it's crazy to say about a guy like Suban considering how established he is and how

much he's already accomplished in his career. But I do feel like he has a lot to prove this year in terms of you know, this summer. It just like wasn't a good look from the perspective of the predators basically making him available and no one really jumping at the opportunity to do so. And there was a lot of concerns about his health. And I think justifiably he's missed 15 games or more in three of the past four years. And whenever you start talking about like back stuff, for example, that could, especially at his age, that could definitely be something that deteriorates pretty quickly. And at the same time, he was an orris finalist two years ago and he's still a heck of a player. And I thought it was a smart, calculated gamble for, for the devils to try and get a player of

his skill set. Now, it's funny, we have talked about this over the past couple of years, but but he's never really thought of it that way because of his point totals and sort of the, the flare he plays with and stuff. But in a way, he is such a like traditional defensive defenseman in sort of how he plays and sometimes how he approaches handling the puck. And so that's what's funny. And like during all the years where people would point out his mistakes or his turnovers or question his defensive ability.

Like I always thought that was so overboy. I always thought like the best part of his game was the defensive ability. Yeah, and for a long time it was. And I feel like that's probably still true. I think that's where he rates the highest overall is his defensive impact. But I think the transition impact is where he struggled the most the last couple of years, despite being similar to Dowdy in terms of like being a very safe player with the puck. Not quite as safe.

But his biggest problem like we talked about is the dump outs. in transition that really limits his effectiveness there. But yeah, I think he's an interesting guy because clearly he has the offensive skills. But I do wonder if maybe one of the reasons why he stagnated last year is because he wasn't relied upon. And this is, you know, playing amateur psychologist. But having watched PK so closely for so many years, I know that he thrives on being the guy. And it's not to say that he didn't, earn more ice time in Nashville because I think while he was there, he was their best defenseman

overall over the three years. But it's still harder to take minutes from Romanoisi than it is to take minutes from like, I don't know who else. Like butcher on New Jersey, who's good, but, you know, is a young kid. Whereas he's coming in there. And the other players in the top four in Nashville are three established veterans who were drafted and developed by that organization. So he's automatically lowest in the totem pole. And even if he is slightly better than the others, he'll probably only get at best the same amount of minutes. It's just the way it works, especially in the regular season. In the playoffs, obviously he got more usage, especially on their big cup run there. But it's a situation where I do wonder if he stagnated a little bit

there and he needs the attention. Yeah. Because he's P.K. Suban. Yeah. I mean, I think there's certainly the amount of that now in game one against the Jets. It did go it over time, but he played 26-21. So, yeah, I imagine the devils will be using him as much as they possibly can, and hopefully his back and health can hold up. And he can return to the form that made him easily, no doubt about it top five defensive for so many years. Okay, we're in the top 10 here.

Give me the next couple. Give me like 10-9-8 or whatever for yourself. Okay, so 10-9-8, I've got Roman Yosi, Thomas Shabbat, and Suban, who we already talked about. I actually have Romanoi at 10, so that's perfect. Oh, okay. The one area, our lists align. Yes.

Yeah, so Romani Yosi, obviously, one of the most talented offensive defensemen in the league, one of the best transition players in the league period, in terms of activity and completions. But defensively, not very good. That's what holds into number 10. If he was even average top four quality on defense, I think he'd be like a top five player in the league.

it's so funny because like I was saying when I watch Morgan Riley I don't see like with my sort of untrained I'm not a coach by any means

I don't see any sort of visible flaws that make him bad defensively I do see that with Roman Yosi his defending of the blue line for a guy who skates

as well as he does is stunningly bad and it's weird because I guess maybe there's an element of like he's so confident in his skating ability that he feels like he can sort of cover ground and make it up or whatever i'm not sure there's like maybe it's some false bravado there but i'd love to see him

more aggressive in his defending maybe there's an element of like he just doesn't care about it because he loves getting the puck and then just skating it up the ice as fast as he can and i don't blame him it it looks very cool and he's very good at it and uh that'll get him paid quite handsomely coming up here soon and makes the highlight reels and wins over people's affection on Twitter. So I get it. I see why he would want to play that way, but there is certainly a lot that leaves the desired in his game. Now, we both have him as the 10th best defenseman in the league,

so clearly what he's good at heavily outweighs what he's bad at. But there are some reasons to bump him down here, especially considering the handful of guys we have ahead of them, don't really have those concerns. Maybe they don't have the same sort of. offensive slash transitional upside that he does, but they're just so much better in all the other areas that it kind of balances itself up. Yeah, for sure. And I think with Yosie, like you said, he leans into what he's good at and that makes sense. I think aside from, I think he has some

poor reads in terms of like where he should be and what the best thing to do is necessarily when he should step up, when he shouldn't. I think it's that it's not even that he, he, doesn't know what to do. It's just that he's always thinking about moving the puck the other way. And sometimes he thinks about that before he actually gets the puck. So he's always in a position to break out despite the fact that he's still defending. And that leads to some hilarious situations. And obviously it's working out fine for him.

He just might be even better if he was a little bit more aggressive on the defensive side and less worried about the next step. You know, take it step by step, Roman. and although you know what maybe he shouldn't be because he's already so freaking handsome if he gets any better it's just going to be unfair Yeah we need him to have at least one flaw

Yeah So keep being bad defensively Roman I thought he was a I mean he was my personal pick for the Norris this year I thought he's really set up nicely From the perspective of Suban's gone He's paired on that top pair with Ellis He's the only defenseman on their top power play unit

It feels like it is kind of his team or his group now and, you know, he's looking to get paid here soon. There's the narrative of, like, he's so fun to watch and no one's really going to care about these liabilities we're mentioning if he's going to put up crazy point totals. And he's also never wanted or never really, I don't know what his highest finish is, but I believe he's never even been a finalist.

So it feels like you put all those things together, and this could be a huge year for him, both in terms of production and also in terms of perception. It might be, but I think what you're missing, is that Petrangelo is due. He is also, he's also, I mean, Patrangelo was my pick last year for that reason. It felt like he was really, really due.

And then him and the Blues got off to such a bad start. Yeah, ruined everything. Maybe if you lump in the playoffs and we just did it at the end of the year, maybe that Petrangelo picks that would have held true. Let's take a quick break here to hear from a sponsor, and then we're going to finish up with our top 10 on other things. Sponsoring today's episode of the HockeyOcast is Seekek. Seek is great because they're showing us that,

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Oh, I have him. See, I have him up at third. Oh, wow, that high. I love Seth Jones. I mean, you have my seven, so you also love Seth Jones. Yeah, I think he's got, like, to have him at three, obviously, you agree. He's got, like, franchise level potential. His career arc has been so rapid last couple of years where it's just, like, I had him

in, like, the 30s, 40s for a couple years. And then all of a sudden, he's, like, up into the top 10. and he's just incredible, sky's the limit kind of guy. The only reason I didn't have him higher is just because I thought last season didn't improve necessarily on the season before. I thought he was just, he was good. I thought he got worse a bit last year. Yeah, like it wasn't the improvement you expected. But then again, like, you know, both him and Werenski were not as good.

So it's like how much is really on either of them. Who knows what was going on there. There's always more to dig into. but I'd like to see a little bit more from Jones this year and then he could probably be like in the top five. Yeah, I guess it's a bit hypocritical for me because like I did bump down guys like Dowdy and Suban so much after one bad year. But, you know, with Jones just having turned 25 years old and what he'd already shown in his career, like I feel very confident that he's going to be significantly better in the next couple of years. And I already thought like I had him as a Norris finalist two years ago on my fake ballot and I thought he was tremendous. and last year he did take a bit of a step back but he like if he were creating a defense one in the lab like he might be it in terms of his ability to basically do everything really really well like i don't know like is there like visually i can't see any um real flaws in his game is there anything um from like a deeper um analytical perspective that he struggles at like i guess he's not like as prolific of like a transitional puck movers like as a guy like roman yore

for example, but like he seems so remarkably solid when he does it still. Well, I think, you know, earlier in his career, the big thing that was missing from his game was like a bit of offensive ability. And then he just kind of really polished up his playmaking last year, or not last year, the year before. And, you know, I don't really think there's many things to pick apart with this game. I think he's, you know, almost the prototype for what a modern defenseman is going to be, you know, uh, not. only is he crazy skilled, smooth transition guy, offensively talented, but not a guy who continually does a machine gun shot from the blue line that eats up a bunch of shots

and zone time and doesn't score. It's all about playmaking and supporting his teammates. And then on top of that as well, he's a giant. So he's got the reach to disrupt guys. He's got the physicality. If he needs to engage and knock somebody around, he can. he's just excellent all around. Yeah, he's a pretty flawless player.

So, yeah, maybe me having my three was a bit more of a projection than what he did last year. But I feel like he's going to have a monster season this year. At six, I had John Klingberg. Yeah, I had Klingberg higher. I had him at four. And at six, I have another controversial one that I'm sure people are going to be upset about. I had Victor Hedman. Oh, I had him at two.

Yeah, see, Hedman. I'm going to be hard on this guy. because people really were upset with me last year when I had his Norse season ranked really as like the worst Norse season in recent memory. Like people get upset about the Drew Dowdy went over Carlson, but at least that year I think Dowdy was at least the second or third best defenseman in the league. Whereas the year that Hedman won, he was like in the 30s. His impact was not very good at even strength at all. He was mainly just a power play guy. Now, he is probably the single biggest powerplay impact defensemen in the league.

But how much value do you put in that for a defenseman? Well, especially on that team. Exactly, right? Like, if you were to remove headman and put in placeholder or Sergegev, I'm pretty sure that powerplay would still function with Kutrov and Stamco's and Point and every other awesome player that they somehow acquire might not be as good. Right. But it'll still be good.

I just, I think headman gets a lot of credit for being huge and from time to time he'll just dummy someone and he can also move the puck. But he just hasn't had the impact at even strength the last couple of years that people have want, like, said that he's had. His offensive impact has actually gone down for two, for three years straight. his transition impact is about the same and his defensive impact he's actually been worse like consistently getting worse so I'm just not really seeing it with him as being you know a top two defenseman in the league

I think he definitely has that level of talent but it hasn't quite been there I don't know if it's been like injuries I know last year he had that injury to end the year maybe it was something lingering that's keeping him from being full speed I think he had a foot entry the year before that was slowing him down as well. But I think

Hedman has, like he has that ability, but he hasn't been for me. Well, and he's also an enormous human being. And I imagine, like, physically that's going to take its toll. And he might suffer more of those injuries as he gets older here than you typically would expect. I think the lightning have very smartly considering their standing up aspirations. Last year, they really dialed him down with him. The year before when he won the Norris, I think he played 25.

51 last year he played 2246 at 5-1-5 he went from 1830 a night to 1606 and they really you know part of it was mcdonna looking a lot better and being able to handle more of those minutes and you know him and eric churnack kind of became their go-to defensive pairing but there's certainly some concerns and red flags there i just i just felt like from uh a total package perspective uh if i was picking defensemen i would there's very, very few guys that I would have to go through before I got to headman because I do feel like he's still, he still has it and he's still capable of having a bigger impact than he's done. But you're right. I think part of being on that team, on that power play, putting up the point totals he does and just how good the lightning have been and the fact that he's their best defenseman, it makes it kind of a perfect storm, no pun intended for him being a bit overvalued. And so now that you talk about it, like I could totally see the case. We're bumping him down a few spots. I just felt. I feel very safe with knowing what he is and how good he can be. Yeah, for sure.

And I think, you know, in any given year, Hedman can be the best defenseman in the league, you know, especially if Carlson's injured. Okay, well, let's go. Let's do, okay, let's do Klingberg because you had him at four and I had him at six. Yeah, so I had Klingberg at four. Yeah, I just, I'm so impressed with how he's grown as a player. Like, he's taken, I think he was in around like the 30th best defenseman in transition impact

for his first couple years in the league and then in 2017-18 he just rocketed up to like third. He has really taken it upon himself to be a bigger part of moving the puck the right way. He's been really cut down his turnovers like crazy. He's gotten a lot better defensively over the years.

He's still not amazing defensively. He's good. Definitely better than he gets credit for. I think maybe some of the problem in terms of the on-ice numbers if they get bad. it comes from more Esselinda than him. But,

uh, and offensively, man, what a, what a dude that guy is. Uh, does anybody have a better, like sneaky wrister from the point that just rises up out of nowhere?

He's so fun to watch. I mean, last post season, just like his skating ability and how he can sometimes, like, uh, is, I think there's no one better at,

uh, maybe he's better, um, from like, uh, north, south perspective in terms of getting the puck up the ice. But man, watching Klingberg, like, maneuver his way around the forecheck and sort of make defenders look silly as he, like, puts a move on them and then has them on his back hip and just moves up the ice.

He's so good at that. And I love also, like, I think there's some concerns about how the stars have started this year and sort of how slow they play, considering the players they have and the personnel they have. And Jim Montgomery is clearly a defensive coach who, I think, by design, wants to play that way. but I love that he gets him and Miro Heiskeny and out there together at 5-15 for offensive zone draws and really kind of stacks their lineup in those situations and just his usage and his ability. You're right. There was a bit of a concern there a couple years ago when he got off to a really,

really bad start that one year, but since then, he's been just so good. And it's a really short list of, like, guys that I love watching more than him. Yeah. And like you said, like you just named out the only guy that might be on that list. like off top of your head might be mirror why he's kidding. Yeah, yeah, exactly. And he's going to be, we haven't mentioned him yet. But when we do this list, maybe not next year, but at some point in the future,

he'll be on this list for sure. Yeah. All right. So who do you have at five? At five, I had Brent Burns, who. Yeah, a lot of people have him significantly higher, like up there with Carlson. But I think the thing for me with Burns is definitely more in a personal preference thing than a numbers thing.

He is stronger without the puck. A lot of people give him credit for. He's actually a pretty good one-on-one defender. He's pretty aggressive. He can take the puck off people really well because he's a big brute. And he has the skating to get into battles. But it's just with the puck outside of the offensive zone, he is so sloppy. He's just like one of the sloppies.

poppiest guys among like the star level players in the league he has so many turnover so many bad ones too that it's really hard for me to put him any higher than that and the reason why he is is because he just keeps on blowing past my expectations of what's going to happen with him and just like and you know he'll have like 20 points halfway through the season like oh okay burns is finally falling off this like era of brent burns being the top offensive defenseman is gone and then he's like oh i'll just put up 60 in the last 40 yeah you know like no you're right those on these tears he's similar to suban there's sometimes where he just like maybe it's not even dumping it out as much as like he tries these

like passes that have a 1% chance of succeeding maybe even less than that they're just like these wild Hail Marys that he throws up the ice and I guess that's like you you kind of have to take that the bad with the good but there there's certainly um scenarios where I just wish like he would make a higher percentage play. And, you know, I do think it's fair to wonder about, in terms of that offensive production, like, at some point, you have to give him credit and you'd be like, okay, well, if the guy's just leading the league in scoring and he has like 75 points or more as a defenseman, like, you can't knock it too much.

But just from like the volume perspective and sort of efficiency and wondering, not whether the sharks would be better off, but in terms of what it would look like if he was shooting less from the point. Like he's so good at getting that buck through. And especially with Pavilski there over the years and sort of that rapport, the hand-eye coordination and then all the tipping and all the rebounding and stuff. Now that he's gone as well, like, I just wonder what that's going to look like and whether the sharks would be better off, actually, sort of directing their offense

through different avenues or maybe looking for higher efficiency looks, especially with guys like Kuture Hurdle and Meyer on their team up front who are all very good finishers. I just, I wonder whether they should be doing that. But I mean, Burns has been so successful and he's been doing it for so long and has been such a big part of their plan of attack that I can't see that changing. Yeah. And like you said, the lower percentage shots is hard to like justify that the way the league is shifting.

Like I don't know if you saw the article that I posted on Sportsnet last week, but the drop in perimeter shots over the last four seasons is incredible. Like teams went from shooting from the slot. Like I'll have to pull it up here to figure out the exact numbers. I don't remember off the top of my head. But it's been drastic. It's I think almost a 10% shift from the perimeter to the slot and inner slot. So it's one of those things where things are changing.

Brent Burns refuses to change. and yet continues to be amazing anyway. And it's like, you know, at his age as well, you wonder when his shoulder's going to give out from blasting 300 shots on net every year, you know, and he puts so much on it. And, you know, he's not Ovi, you know. He's a big dude, but he's not that like six foot wide shoulders guy.

And like you said, without Pavelsky, there's less value, I think, in those point shots as well because you don't have the guy who, who has mastered that net front presence thing. Well, the interesting thing for me is like, I'm, yeah, I just, I'm very curious to see what the sharks do look like because they obviously got on such a bad start. You know, part of that is Kay not being in the lineup and Carlson missing the first game

and the fact that they played two games against arguably the best team in the league and then they played another one in a second number back-to-back against John Gibson. but I do, with Burns, it's funny because I think we both agree, like, he's not nearly as bad defensively as people think, and I also think he's not as good offensively as people think, and it kind of balances itself out, and that's why I have him at four and you have it five or whatever or six. So we're like, we still think he's very, very good and one of the best most impactful players in the league, but he gets there in and maybe a different way than, you know, popular, conventional belief, what have you think.

Yeah, for sure. And I do wonder if there's some adjustment. there because it's not like Burns is a bad playmaker either. I know some of it's coming from rebounds, but he did have like almost 70 assists last year. It's mental. But yeah, I think his pushing 30 goals days are probably over just the way the league's changing. And despite save percentage actually dropping, I think goalies are continuing to get better. So the shots that he's taking are going to be less likely to go in. And, you know, he went three years averaging almost 8% shooting.

And then the last two, he was more. around the 4% range. So, you know, things kind of get less efficient with time, both due to age and the way the game's changed. But he is really good. You know, he does a lot of good things. I mean, we are nitpicking a guy who I've got at five and you've got at four, right? Yep.

So he's great. Okay, so who do we have on this list in this top five that we haven't done for you yet? All I've got left is Giordano at three. and Carlson at 1. So I've got Giordano at 5 and Carlson at 1. So yeah, we're very similar. Okay, let's do Giordano quickly and then we'll get into Carlson. So the only reason why I bumped, I thought Gerardo was clearly better than being the fifth best

defenseman last year. I thought his Norris trophy was very well deserved. I think, I guess part of this is just for me, it's like I'm a bit worried about the fact that he is 36 years old. And if the wheels came off very quickly, we couldn't really be surprised considering the age and the mileage. and the fact that he had injuries in the past. But for now, he's such a stud and he's so good.

And I also think it's no coincidence that T.J. Brody had a nice bounce back here last year probably after Dougie Hamilton left and he was paired back up with Gerdano. Yeah. And I find it funny. Like I think some of my favorite things to talk about with like people who love Mark Giordano but like aren't like they're more like casual fans is first you tell him that he's barely over six feet. and then you tell him that he's 36 years old

and both of them like people don't believe it because he's such an active player and for being on the smaller side for a defenseman not that six foot is small in the NHL but for a defenseman it is pretty small he's a masher like he plays a very old school style but not in a way that hinders his ability

to move the puck or or generate offense he's just in your face going to knock you on your butt kind of guy and I just I really love him I love the way he plays the game he doesn't really have very many weaknesses he's just good everywhere yeah I think uh we're right there he he deserves to be higher but there's some concerns about that age and so that's why he got bumped down a little bit but man he was he was so good last year and and the flames are reliant on him to sort of be that good

again this year if they're going to have the type of year they had last year so we'll see how that plays out. Carlson at one. I wonder, do you think, do you think people would be surprised that we both have him at one? Do you think, I mean, I guess considering they've listened to us, talk about him in the past, they shouldn't be, but maybe after last year, I do feel like the perception was that he took a massive step back and, and there's concerns about him and with all the time he missed and how, you know, clearly limited he looked in the postseason, especially down the stretch there. So, I don't know, like, I'm, I don't have a good grasp on what the public perception of him and his abilities are at this point

heading into this season. I mean, there's definitely some talk about him falling off, but I think anybody who listens to the PDOCAS probably knows we'd probably have Carlson number one. But one of the things that I looked at for sports net early in the year here was they wanted me to do like profiles

of who's the best playmaker, best even strength shooter, and who is the best like breakout defenseman. And I don't know if you were able to see it or if I said it to you or not, but I labeled a few names on a scatterplot. And the extent to which Carlson is on an island in terms of how often he clears the defensive zone

is completely absurd. There's just all these people bunched into like different categories and then all the way at the other end of the graph having to do two or three extra labels or two or three extra quadrants kind of thing. There you have Carlson on his own. He's just such a big factor in everything. And people rail on him defensively. And I understand that sometimes he can get caught. And when he was injured, there was a time where he couldn't pivot one way and he got caught a few times.

And that stands out. But overall, his defensive impact remains unbelievable. Like last year in the playoffs, the amount of high danger scoring chances of the sharks were giving up with him on the ice versus anybody else on that defense. group, it was like half when Carlson was on the ice. It was incredible how good he was able to be, despite being injured. I had the utmost respect for what he's able to do. And every time, I think, well, you know, maybe people are right. I'll look at Carlson and figure out if there's something to people saying, like, oh, he's fallen off, he's in decline. It doesn't matter what stat I pick. It doesn't matter what zone it's in. Doesn't matter what I'm trying to measure. Carlson's always is in there at the top.

He might not be the very top, but he's in the top five. He's just an incredible all-tools player. Yeah, I think of his mobility continues with age and also with all these injuries piling up, like if he's not 100% and his mobility is decreased, he's going to be more prone to those, you know, highlight reel plays against where someone skates around him

or makes him look silly or he gets caught flat-footed. but even as he ages here, why I'm okay with the bet the sharks made with a contract to keep him, beyond the fact that they are trying to win a Stanley Cup now and they'll worry about it three or four years down the road. Like, I think he's going to age fairly gracefully because he's, A, such a smart player, but B, like, his ability with the puck to make those smart plays that we were just railing on guys like Burns and Suban, for not being able to make is so um um a mate like subtly prolific that i still have confidence that even if he can't you know skate like the wind like he used to once upon the time he'll still be so effective in transitioning the puck and getting it from point a to point b effectively and efficiently

that i think he's going to be really really good for a number of years now you know last year despite missing the time uh he only played the 53 games and who knows how healthy he even was for a large of those, he was still like top 10 in pretty much every offensive metric if you pro-rate on a permanent basis. And with him on the ice, the sharks had a 59.5% shot share and expected goal share. And they were like just like the best team in the league. And so, um, yeah, despite what it may have looked like towards the end there, his impacts when he was on the ice were just so profound that it's impossible to bump him anywhere beyond just the number one over, number one overall guy on this list. Yeah. And like, the point that I made at the end of

the article when I was looking at breakouts was like, Even if Carlson didn't score a point at five on five this year, he'd still be a top 10 defenseman in the league. That's how crazy good he is at everything else. And because he scores so prolifically and has for so long, people don't realize that. Yeah, well, people who listen to his podcast do realize that because I think I don't know how many years of all what this is now.

I think we've done this four years, and I think we've had Carlson number one in all four seasons. So he's still the king at the position. Andrew, we're going to have to break this up into an institute podcast. We're at 75 minutes right now. All right. I think I'm getting a bit tired. I think our listeners are probably like already winding down a little bit.

This wingers show, I think for both centers and defensemen, we've kind of hinted that we were going to do the wingers. It's becoming like that that sitcom bit where like a character gets mentioned but never actually appears on screen. We just keep like mentioning that we're going to rank the wingers, but we never actually do it. It's Matt Damon on Jimmy Kimmel. What, uh, let's give, let's give the listeners a little teaser then for, for the next episode. What, uh, are there, are there, are any sort of honorable mentions or guys you don't have in your top 15 wingers that are like, the people would be surprised by or the people would be, like, upset about it?

I think maybe analytically inclined people would not be surprised, but the, uh, casual fans would be surprised. I don't have Blake Wheeler on there. Oh, he was my name. That's why I asked that question. I was going to, I was going to. Oh, I stole it. Yeah.

Nicely done. Yeah, me neither. So, uh, so look forward to that. I'm really excited to do that with you. plug some stuff before we get out of here. Where can people find you? And what are you working on these days? Yeah.

So I'm going to have something up on SportsNet on Austin Matthews in the next day or two here. And I'm going to have my weekly column back on SportsNet as well. Truth by Numbers, it comes out every Friday. So look for that. Awesome, man. Well, I appreciate you taking the time. This was a blast. And I look forward to maybe ranking the wingers with you at some point.

We'll get it to it one day. All right. The Hockey P.D.O.cast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at DIM. Philipovich and on SoundCloud at SoundCloud.com slash HockeyPedioCast.