The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 326: The Good, The Bad, and The Red Wings

Episode Date: November 29, 2019

Cam Robinson joins the show to revisit our preseason breakout picks, discuss the sustainability of some notable early season performances, and identify some opportunities to buy low and sell high. Topics include:3:00 The Stars rounding into form10:00 The Year of the Backup Goalie15:30 Andrei Svechnikov has arrived22:00 Hronek, Larkin, and the mess in Detroit31:00 Regretting buying into preseason Devils hype34:00 Promising flashes from Jack Hughes39:00 Most intriguing Taylor Hall landing spots44:00 Tough sledding for Ducks and Jackets offensively50:30 Selling high on Ryan Strome55:00 Adam Fox's sneaky upward trajectory58:00 Buying Quinn Hughes and the Canucks power play1:03:30 How Sheldon Keefe unlocked the Leafs offenseSee acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Welcome to the Hockey-DioCast. My name is Dimitri Philpovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Ken Robinson. Cam. What's going on, man? I don't too much, Tim. How are you doing? I'm doing well. I'm doing well. We're recording this. I usually recording the evenings. I'm a bit off my game. I'm making myself a little French press coffee here to keep myself going and recording this Wednesday evening. We've had a busy jam-pack night of hockey tonight, and I'm excited to get into it. I thought it'd be fun to have you on the show.

It's kind of like a thought exercise of going back over our preseason predictions because I had you on back in September, and we did sort of our picks for like sleepers. busts and guys we like and don't like. And I went back and listened to it and I gave you some homework as well. And I thought it'd be fun to kind of go back over it, see what we got right, see what we got wrong, because there was certainly a little bit of both. And I think it's just a good exercise. Like I know, you know, sometimes people blame analytics types, quote unquote, if that's what you and I are for like only kind of back patting and sort of, you know, focusing on what they got right and kind of acting like they're smarter than everyone. They know everything. But I really feel like, you know, I can't speak for everyone, but I feel like with my word, that's really not the case.

Like, I'm the first to admit when I get something wrong. There's plenty of that. And I think it's very insightful to go back and sort of figure out why you got it wrong, what's changed. If you're just constantly, like, stuck on the same takes and same stances and you're not embracing you information, I don't understand how you're going to, like, evolve and grow as a hockey mind. So hopefully we'll accomplish that here tonight. No, I think you're 100% right, too. And for those who don't know, I'm a school teacher.

And I preach that to my students all the time is that if you can't admit your mistake, mistakes and you have no chance of really growing and developing and becoming a deeper learner and understanding things. So, oh yeah, I'm the first one to call myself out when I make them a mistake. I love the self-backpats too, but when you get something glaringly wrong, it's usually best to even point out your own faults too. People usually go easier on you on that one. So, okay, so we're going to dive into a lot of the names we're discussed before the season, see how they're doing, see how the first two months have unfolded for them. And then I thought we could get into a little bit of buy and sell and sort of discuss guys, you know, actionable

situations because it's really easy to be like, okay, Connor McDavid and Nathan McHenner are very good at fantasy hockey. And, you know, certain guys, like, aren't very good. But there's a lot of middle ground there, especially with players who are either off the really hot starts and we can figure out whether we're buying them or maybe there's some sell high opportunities. So we'll get into all of that. Did you have a chance to go back and listen to our initial show? Yep.

Yep. I listened to it. And I've got all my old notes from that show too. And then so I've just kind of written over them in a different, in a different color so that we can see, you know, where we're right, where we're wrong. And kind of compare contrast as we go through here if we want. Okay, beautiful. All right. Well, let's, let's start.

Let's do a, we're going to go in order here. I think, I think it's fair to say that we both took a massive double. And I should say our lists very conveniently overlapped quite a bit in terms of guys we liked and didn't like. And, you know, when we're working with a similar information and looking at sort of, the same stuff and valuing certain skill sets that's bound to happen. But Rupa Hintz was a guy we talked a lot about, I'd say a good, like 10, 15 minutes. And we were sort of just raving about how he looked good he looked in the second half of the season, when Matt Zucarillo came into the mix, when they finally gave him a talented player to play with,

how good he looked in the playoffs and sort of the preseason hype that surrounded him. And, you know, there was a little bit of a two-week period there where he was out with injury and it sort of slowed down his pace, but he still had nine goals in his first 16 games. And I think that type of an offensive explosion, especially based on where you were getting him, even though he did come with some attached type, is still a slam dunk for anyone that sort of took that advice and really invested in Rupery hands before the season. Yeah, Rupé, I've got it right here. We called this one right off the hop of the show there last time, too.

So, you know, we expected that his even strength time on ice was going to shoot up. Last year, his five-on-five shooting percentage was low. so there was just a whole bunch of markers that were saying that this kid was going to jump up. And the developmental arc too, just going in the right direction. That's what you want to see. And so like you said, nine goals and this first 16 games, you know, the shooting percentage is a touch high. So that's going to come crashing back down a little bit. But as the stars now, they start to get their game together, especially when he was out for a couple weeks and they really kind of found their legs and kept it rolling,

is that he's going to be certain to get some more assist too because he was going for the Cy Young a little bit there too this season. Yeah. So, yeah, like I said, the conversion rate's going to go down. but he was the best player for that team during their dreadful start. And now, you know, Sagan's rolling, Klingberg's back. And he looks like he's the Klingberg of old. Jamie Ben was never going to put up 20 points in a full season. So he's woken up as well.

And, you know, and right now, as the last couple of games, hints to centering Sagan and Ben, and he's playing on that top unit. And you can't really ask for much better deployment, especially while Dallas is rolling hot. So I expect the numbers are going to keep coming, probably a little more assist heavy and that'll balance out his score sheet. But, you know, the kids, what,

22 years old and, you know, he was arguably their top player for the entirety of this season so far while he's been in the lineup. And so I think the ceiling is pretty high for him. And, you know, he's a guy that could put up 60, 65 this year and then still has room to grow. Yeah, the amazing thing is at the start of the year when they really came out sputtering. And I forget, I think they were like one to seven and one or something like that. And they were really, really struggling to generate any sort of sustainable, consistent offense. And it really felt like if they were scoring, it was Rupert-Hin's solo efforts where he basically just take the buck up to ice himself and show some of that

speed and skill that really won us over last year. And that's why I think, you know, he's not going to shoot 25% and that's going to come back down a bit. It could be mitigated by some better luck in terms of cashing in on some assists with guys doing a little bit of the heavy lifting themselves and not him not having to do everything all by himself. But he's so explosive off of the rush and the types of chances he creates. It's really, it jumps off the page. And I love watching him with people who listen to show know that I love Dennis Gariano. I'd love to see that mix more because their sort of size and speed and skill combo is just so overwhelming and it really kind of gives Dallas a different dynamic.

You know, we know that they want to slow it down. They want to win two-one games. They don't want to push the envelope too much, but they've been playing a lot better here over the past couple weeks, and I'd love to see them pair it up and just some consistent minutes. The tough thing has been part of it's by necessity with injuries. Part of it's been lack of production. So Jim Montgomery has kind of felt the pressure to push, kind of push buttons and

move some stuff around. But there's been so much line shuffling. I mean, I have here a note that Hintz has played at least 25 minutes of 515 with seven different forwards this season. And so there's been very little consistency in terms of like, all right, it's going to be like Radulov, say, and Ben, then it's going to be Hintz, Pavelsky, Goryana, and then it's going to be, you know, Yanmara Kogliano or whatever. Like, it seems like every day.

day there's different combinations and I guess that can be kind of the frustrating part sometimes because obviously for the players it's tough to establish that chemistry but for us it's also tough to like know what to expect and what the role is going to be on a night-to-night basis. Yeah for sure and I think that's part and parcel with how terrible they were to start the season is that when the guys aren't going the coach has to put the lines into a blender and so you know Hince was looked at to try to get all sorts of different players going early on there because he was the only one really doing anything and like you said he was you kind of putting the team on his back and going on these solo efforts.

you know, I love them up on that top line. I love them playing in the middle and moving second to the wing, and that opens up more opportunities for Sagan to kind of fly the zone a little bit and use that speed and skill combo that he has too. But, you know, they got shut out last game, so I'm not holding my breath. You know, maybe we do see Hinson and Geryana partnered up on that second line. And that's okay too, because I think they have a lot of options. I think they should just keep that top six core intact.

Right. And kind of, you know, kind of mesh around with the bottom six if you want. And you can maybe in-game kind of fly some things up if things aren't clicking. But, no, I think that they have the talent in that top six to surround, say again, to surround Rubé Hintz and get these guys around players that can finish their chances for them, too. So I'm hoping that, like you said, that we're going to see the blender not be spinning too often now as the team's rolling with some wins. Well, here's the thing.

They're 14, 2 and 1 in their last, what is that, 17 games, quick math there. And, you know, they're coming off a most recent defeat, but they've really gotten back to being that team that they made them so effective towards the end of last year and what we expected when people kind of viewed them as a trendy pick to win the central this year. They've given up 32 goals in those 17 games combined and we've seen it's that mix of they're just comfortable rolling ben Bishop and Anton Hudobin back and forth. And so another thing that stuck out to me was when we were listening to the preseason podcast, I was really high on like going with these backups on these stingy defensive teams and sort of instead of investing in andre basilevsky or you know some of these

starters that you had to invest massive draft capital in that are shiny toys i was like just go get like darcy kemper yaro halak uh anton hoodobin whoever's playing goal for the islanders and that's really been the other recipe of success i feel like all of those guys are just absolutely smashing right now and that's sort of what's really stuck out to me watching the nchel this season the more i think about it's like it's so much more about system, especially for fantasy, I guess, than the actual goalie talent itself, because you just look at what's happening to Bobrovsky in Florida. And, you know, he needs to play better. He needs to make saves. I think he'll still eventually turn it around. He started similarly slowly last year. But it's really tough when the team in front of you is playing

this like open-ended style. They're not getting back. They're not closing off the passing lanes. They're hanging you out to dry versus when you watch Dallas or you watch the Islanders. And it's like, the goalie can just focus on the shooter and whatever is in front of him because he knows that there's a defenseman behind him that's blocking the passing lane backdoor so he doesn't have to worry about that and it makes life so much easier for them and you see that in the stats where a lot of these guys who aren't your conventional household names or stars are putting up 930 save percentages because they're just playing on remarkably good defensive teams no that that stood out to me too while we were well i was re-listening to that one is that

you know you're right and why waste draft capital on on these goaltenders in the first or second round when you can go get a Thomas Grice or a Darcy Kemper or something like that. And these guys are doing so, so, so well. And so, you know, it's arguably the year of the kind of tandem netminding situation. You know, Boston's been doing it for a little while. Now I saw Rask started three straight for the first time since like last January. And, you know, we see the Ranta hasn't really been able to get rolling with health. But, you know, what's going on in the desert there?

They're looking good. Even in Chicago, too, you know. So there's a lot of examples of it. In Vancouver, like Demco's looking great. I think it's important for the teams, number one is that they want to keep their starter healthy. But if they have the back pressure and they have the system that is tight, if you have a goaltender on that team, you're going to be getting some wins and you're going to be getting lots of stops. And those goals against are going to be mitigated versus, you know, Bob has won many, many teams of fantasy championship.

He's got great numbers in February, March, and April. But yeah, yeah, October, November, December, like watch, especially on this Florida team. And just adjusting to a new team in general, too. but yeah they got to they got to tighten things up if he's going to get his save percentage up to you know 910 here well i think this really started more so even last year right in this idea of uh you know load management or whatever you want to call it but teams embracing the data that shows that you know you don't typically want to be playing your goalie 60 65 70 games because their performance is going to wear down especially if you have playoff aspirations and you want to be playing late into the spring and so

i wonder how much that's going to change for awards voting for the venezna i mean i think we saw last year that Ben Bishop and Robin Lennar were both nominated for the Vezna and each guy was like around 45 games or so and it seemed, you know, a handful of years ago that would have seemed ludicrous that you'd think that the most valuable goalie played about half of the team's games. But it seems like everyone's kind of coming around to this new brave world of ours that we're living in with these goalies that are playing 42 to 45 up to 50 games and the smart teams are doing it and clearly you need the two goalies there. But both in terms of awards, but also in terms of.

of, you know, team building and sort of what we're going to see with future contracts, does it make sense to be giving out a massive, you know, seven years, $70 million contract to serve, but Borowski expect that he's going to write the ship and just kind of alleviate all of your sins defensively just by himself when you might be better off devoting that into, you know, a solid third line center and a second parent defenseman. And right? So it's like, it's going to be so fascinating to see how this new, uh, goaly timeshare environment that we're in blend itself to awards,

to team building, and obviously the fantasy as we're discussing tonight. Yeah, no, I think you're spot on it. It's going to be very, very interesting because, you know, there's only a handful of guys out there that are starting the majority of the games, and that could be probably up for these type of awards. You know, John Gibson, who's just an animal, and I think is underappreciated around the league.

It's tough when his team can't score a goal in front of them. But, you know, another guy, Connor Hellbuck, that a lot of people were leaving for dead this year, as that Jets Blue Line is just absolutely decimated. And he's been great. And he's been out there and he's been playing a lot and he's been playing well. So, you know, he's a guy that's kind of bucking that trend and also kind of preseason notions about him in the fantasy world here. But no, I think you're right.

I think you need to have that. And to have the option, especially if you can have a young guy who's maybe coming off an entry level contract. It's like, yeah, do we want to sign this guy up for five years who's going to be a UFA and now we're paying him big bucks until he's 33? Or do we want to pass the ball to this youngster and maybe go sign ourselves a cheap vet to back him up and be a tandem too, right? and use that money elsewhere, like you said. So, no, for sure. The world is changing the hockey world around us and in a lot of ways, actually, right now. Yeah, I mean, we saw that this summer with Colorado,

who I think we'd agree is a pretty smart, well-run team these days, where they were very comfortable just letting Semianav Arlenov walk and just be like, all right, we're going to, whatever, we're paying 4, 4.5 to Philip Grubauer. And then we've got Pavel Runkuz on, I guess he's not an entry-level deal because he's already his late 20s, but whatever, like the minimum is. And basically, like, they're five minutes. and combined for those guys for the next two seasons. They're just like, yeah, we're very comfortable with this.

And for a lot of them have been fine in that buried shot system, working with Mitch Corrin. I was a prize there. But it's gotten to the point where you don't necessarily need to pay for those saves if you have the good infrastructure and the good environment in front of them. And I guess maybe it's tougher to establish that, like if you don't have the coach or if you don't have the horses because you really have to completely change the way you play.

And it's not as simple as being like, all right, let's just play a good defensive hockey. So there's a lot that goes into it. But it's fascinating to see how certain teams, approach that conundrum. Andre Svetnikov is a guy we were really high on. And my God, he has exploded. And it's worth remembering that he's still not even 20 years old.

You know, fantasy is so much about talent and opportunity. And I think we both agreed last year he showed plenty of flashes of that talent that made him that second overall pick and just the sort of physicality he could play with, taking the puck to the net. And we were talking about how once he puts it all together, he's going to be an unstoppable force. And what I didn't see coming, though, we were talking about how it's going to be fascinating,

seeing who they find to play with him down the middle, whether Martin NHS is going to come up and be the sort of permanent fit next to him. And he's been the permanent fit on, like, the third line for Carolina this year. But what we didn't envision was Svetnikov, just stealing, you know, Nita Ryder's spot and playing pretty much full time with Aho and Tara Binen

and absolutely lighting the world on fire. So it's weird, because we were both high on him and we both liked the situation, but I just didn't see this height. Otherwise, I think we would have been talking about even more. And it lands into our first sort of loss, our first thing we got wrong,

which was we were talking about how Nino Nita Ryder was being undervalued, and he has been a complete dud so far. And I imagine that he is not owned in very many leagues anymore. So I guess if you just invested in the Carolina and you were like, we're just going to get all these guys and see how it shakes out. You're laughing because it's still a net positive. But hopefully you got Svichnikov because he, because he is looking mighty, mighty good so far.

Oh, man, for sure. Yeah, I've got my notes here. Just another home run for Dim and I. But, you know, just a nice back pat there. But no, like you said, you know, I didn't envision him jumping onto that top line. I thought we were going to see the Taravine and Aho and Niederhombo kind of get locked in because they were so dynamic down the stretch last year. And then, like you said, we were hoping NACASH was going to jump in there and take that

two-see job as a rookie, which is a big ask for him. him. But no, Sebastian Kostman's so good. He's stolen that job. He's been on the top power play unit. I was saying I wanted to get him off the bumper and into a more shooter's role as a trigger man and we're seeing it. You know, he's tied for fourth in the league for points for 60 right now. You know, I'd still like to see him shoot the puck more. I think he averaged just over two last year. He's up a little over two and a half this season. You know, his his draft year and junior there in Barry, he was putting up over four games. So I think he's got another level for volume shooting. And that just obviously is an even scarier notion because he's going to put up 30, 35 this year

while putting up two and a half shots of game sort of thing. So at this point, a 19-year-old kid who's going to put up 35 goals, he's going to put up 70 plus points. It's just nuts. He's a beast. And I fully expect him to be one of these guys that's running around. They're putting up 90 points every year for the next few. You know, it's impressive. And I do think that they're going to still look at getting Martin A-cash and him together

because if you want to spread out your scoring, and it's going to be important. And like he said, NACash has been good this season. He's been very, very good. I think he's a future star. Well, here's a thing. He's kind of forcing Rod Brunermore's hand here

because of how well he has played with those guys on the top line. And now when you're playing with Terabina and Aho, especially Aho's really gotten it going here as the seasons got along. He started off a bit slow. Those guys are going to make it easy on whoever they play with, right? But just in terms of the stylistic fit and him sort of bringing that powerful dynamic with those guys and their playmaking has been so fun to watch.

And, you know, the power play production, especially, that was something that we highlighted as like, listen, he had only five assists in the power play last year, no goals. He was playing under two minutes a game there on average. And that was something that we expected would increase for him. He's playing 250 per game now. He's already got four goals and 10 points on the power play and should continue to produce there as well. And playing at 5-1-5 with Aho, you know, they're outscoring teams 13 to 6 at 5-1-5, 56% goals, expected goals share, 58.5 shot share. So it is one of those things where, like, they're clicking so well right now that I'm sure Broadbidden Moore would like in an ideal world to have these three scoring lines that are all equally dominant and make the Carolina Hurricanes impossible to play against. But for as long as he's playing this well, you kind of don't want to mix it up.

And I'm sure he's not complaining. You know, last year, his most too common linemates were Lucas Walmark and Jordan Huck and no offense to those guys. But it's quite a bit of a step up in talents playing with Turbo and Sebastian Aahel right now. Yeah, no, for sure. and it's only getting better too. So I was looking at the last couple of weeks and they're controlling almost 67% of the shot shares and 60% of the expected gold shares.

So they're only getting better as a unit to it even strength. And so that is a scary proposition. And you know what? For a lot of teams, that nuclear option where you load up that top line can be very, very effective too. What you need is you definitely need to have some guys scoring behind them too.

And so right now that guy is Dougie Hamilton who's bringing the noise from the back end and he's basically producing like a top end second line center. Yeah, we'll get it to Hamilton more. I have a full section on him in our buy-sell, so I'm looking forward to getting to that. But yeah, just one final thing on Switching Clove here. I mean, he's a point of game right now as a teenager, which is like, you know, that's impressive on the surface. But then when you look at it a bit deeper in his usage, and even though it is increased from last year and he's playing with better players,

he's still not playing anywhere near as much as the top producers in the game do. And that's why only Brad Marchand, David Pasternak, Connor McDavid, and Leon Dreight, know four guys who have all heard of and who happen to play together in pairs are the only guys with more points per 60 than Andre's Sanchicod right now. So it's quite a testament to what he's done. And, you know, a quick thing on Nieder Rider here, like, poor guy, it kind of sucks for him because we've talked about how he's gotten the short and the stick throughout his career in terms of all night shooting percentages sinking him. And he gets traded for Calcutter Buck the first time. And then the second time he gets traded one for one for Victor Rask. And I'm sure he's not

complaining, given the environment he's in now in the team he's playing. on the success he had last year with Carolina, but it is funny. You know, he starts the year playing with Ajo and Terrebein as expected 160 minutes at 5-15 with Ajo. During that time, they had a 7.7 on-ice shooting percentage and an 85.9 on-ice save percentage. And when you've got that going for you, like, no wonder you're going to look bad and no wonder your coach is going to mix it up. And so it's just a reminder of like, unless, you know, you're a proven, consistent year-over-year

guy who has your spot in the lineup. down no matter what. Like if Alex Havachan has a bad 12-game sample with poor shooting percentages, I feel confident that Todd Reardon isn't going to bump him down to the third line. But when you're a guy like Nino Nieder Rider and you're so reliant on your opportunity, it kind of sucks for him that like after like a couple bad weeks of just unfortunate breaks and unfortunate balances, he gets bumped down, Hunter Sesson Kov takes his spot, never looks back and who knows if we'll ever see that combination ever again.

Yeah, for sure. I think the real message here is that some teams should go out and buy Nino Nieder. writer for a fourth liner. Well, I think Carolina's a bit too smart to do that. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about the Red Wings here, which is a sentence that not very many people have said in 2019, 20. So the good is Philipronic.

We were all over that. He's been a stud so far. He's got so much opportunity there. There isn't really a barrier to minutes for him. I mean, he's playing 23 minutes a night. He probably could even conceive. we'd be playing more just because why not like he's a young defenseman just get him out there he's got talent the red wings don't have a lot of it especially on the blue line so why not but he's made the most

of his opportunities so far and i think people who invested in him or who are fans of his game won't be too uh picky with his usage so far here's the first one that we got really wrong Dylan larkin is uh has not been available he's not been able to sort of shake free from this uh the funk that is uh surrounding the Red Wings organization this season. And he's really struggled. And he was a guy that I was really high on it. I thought people were really overlooking in drafts because the volume was so immense last year.

But for whatever reason, it just hasn't been there so far for him, which has been kind of surprising. No, I think you're right. I think the shots are there still. Like the volume is there. His shooting percentage has dipped what we're looking at, like a little over 4%, a little under 4%. The power pay production is just not there too.

It's really interesting. he's still a 23 year old. I think that there's a lot more to give. And I think we're probably looking at a cold streak that's kind of been lasting for a quarter of the season. But if I can go back, here's what I will say about him. And when you mentioned the shooting percentage, you know, we went through this exercise with McKinnon early in his career. And some of these guys, they're so reliant on speed. What is a slightly worrisome to me, you don't want to buy it into like 25 games shooting percentage fluctuations.

But last year it was really the first time we'd seen him at that NHL level, I believe, even shoot at like League average. above average. I feel like he was single digits for the start of his career. And so the fact that he's bumped back down, I don't think he's like a true shooting 7 or 8% guy, obviously. But maybe the whatever 11, 11 and a half that he shot last year, maybe was even a slight uptick for him, even though it's only league average for most guys for a guy who's so reliant on his speed,

maybe that is something that we need to factor in with him. Yeah, for sure. Maybe, you know, maybe the 32 goals last year was an aberration. Maybe he's more of a 25 goal guy. I still think he should be getting himself 35, 40 assists. in a season, especially the way that the steps that Anthony Malth is taken, the steps that Tyler Bertuzi's taken, you know, Philip Pironick on the back end, that there are some assists to go around and he hasn't been collecting them at the rate that he should be thus far.

But, you know, things are tough in Detroit this year. It's an ugly season for them. And the three bright spots are the guys that we've just mentioned there, too. And so I do think that there's no one coming up to push him, really. I don't believe Joe Valeno is going to come and steal his top line center role anytime soon here. So I think he's going to continue to get all the juicy minutes with all the best wingerers that this organization has to offer for the next several years.

So I think it's coming. If we can take one step back and just talk about Heronic for a half second, too, because I got some notes on him too, is that, you know, like we said, he's doing exactly kind of what we thought he was going to do. He's putting up, you know, a 45 point pace. He's splitting the power play time on ice, but it's not Mike Green who's kind of been filtering and pushing it off of. It's been Dennis Chalosky.

And that's because Chalosky is kind of that offensive guy. And so, you know, he's getting, Heronics getting buried, 39% offensive zone start times he's getting leaned on heavily to be that all-around guy. And a little concerning in the fantasy landscape is that that's going to become his role. He's going to be a tremendous real-life guy, real-life player, but not so much. Someone that you can count on to push and get all the fun minutes. And then, you know, Mo Sider is crushing it in the American League as an 18-year-old and he's a right-shot kid. He's going to come up here in a minute.

And he might be knocking on the door to steal that top power play job too. So Heronic is a player who I love. I have them in my keeper league. but I do have some concerns long term about him really kind of taking that next step. Yeah, I mean, I guess it's funny because the reason why I really liked him heading into this year was like, this guy's produced at every level. Or like he's pretty much been like a 40, 45, 50 point guy on, at least on per game

averages, pretty much everywhere he's played. And sure enough, he's doing it again. And that makes me feel very confident that this is like a very sustainable level of play from him. And if it is, that makes him an immensely valuable asset for both the Red Wings and for fantasy owners. But you're right, in terms of like that next step. or maybe capitalizing on a team that is so barren for talent and potentially kind of cashing

in even more. Maybe it's slightly, the upside is slightly limited. You know, this Red Wings team, they started off surprising. I think they won like three of their first four games. They're four, 16 and three cents with a minus 46 goal differential. They just got absolutely slaughtered by the Toronto Maple Leafs. I believe they gave like 50-something shots on goal. It was really bad.

You know, one final note on Larkin that is interesting to me, and it's a stat that we don't typically kind of look at or talk about too much in terms of like variance or regression. But last year he got a point on 75.3% of the goals he was on the ice four. And that makes sense. The puck flows through him. He's the center. He's the playmaker on that team. It makes sense, right?

This year, he's only at 44.4%. And that's why it's so weird that like, and maybe that explains it because Manta and Tyler Bertuzzi, despite all the struggles of the Red Wings and how bad they've been as a team, have really paid off so far and have done just fine themselves i believe they're both around a point of game before mantha went down with injury and they're they're cashing in but larkin for whatever reason has and and i think maybe even more so than the shooting percentage luck i think that's where he's been really unlucky where it feels like he's going to start kind of getting more of these kind of second assists and just being on the ice when the red wing score and getting credit for it which guys need

even the best players need to really hit those heights from a counting stats total so if he gets a little more luck there maybe um this won't be an issue because the volume with the shots and the ice time is still there and so if you bought on him or if you were high on that dylan larkin just as a fan heading into the season don't uh don't completely sell your shares just yet because it feels like he is due for some better luck yeah his pdo is you know rated even so and and the goal tending hasn't been great so he's been getting i guess some bounces in that regard with this five on five shooting but you know i just pulled it up here i got anthony manh and his his ipp is is 74.2 so you know he's He's doing just fine out there.

He's getting in on the goals when they're out and on the ice. So it's like it's almost as if the play is driving through him. And Bertuzi's kind of the guy mucking it up and working the corners and make things happen. And Larkins kind of got lost in the shuffle. But I'm like you. I think that there's going to be a regression to the mean here in the positive way coming up. I like it. Let's take a quick break here.

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That's promo code PDO for $10 off your first purchase. Now let's get back to the show. All right. Buying the New Jersey Devils hype, I think just generally beyond that episode because I had them in like the mid-teens in terms of my watchability rankings before the season. I was kind of like pushing the pause button a little bit on the hype that they were suddenly going to be this great team that all of their additions in the preseason were going to, in the summer we're going to result in them jumping back into the playoffs and being a dominant

team but i bought into the hype of like there's talent now uh you know they're going to play faster john hines keeps talking about how he wants to play faster this isn't the new jersey devil's team that we've thought about for all these years of kind of being this slow boring team like there's excitement here they're 28 and 5-1-5 pace they're 811 and 4 the minus 23 goal differential uh even you know Taylor Hall's on our point game. None of the, I don't think anyone on the team right now is, uh,

it's really exceeding or even matching preseason expectations. What, what's gone wrong and, uh, and how wrong were we and how much of it is like, well, we kind of just got us to hang tight because it will get better. Yeah,

I think there's, there's a lot of things coming into play here. Number one, they can't, they can't get a save to save their lives out there. So, uh, you know,

I was, I had Schneider with a lot of notes that I, I pegged him to be a real bounce back candidate because he finished the year really strong. He was supposed to be healthy. You know, hell, he started the preseason. He was looking good. I was like, here we go.

Schneides is going to post up another 925 like he did for so many years. And then lo and behold, he's in the minors and he couldn't, you know, get it up to 890. And McKenzie Black hasn't been much better, right? So that's a real issue. And then I think a big factor that we didn't really take into consideration enough is just such an influx of new players into a system. There's going to be hiccups. You know, when you add one. star player to your mix. Maybe it'll take him a beat to get things going. But when you're when you're

adding P.K. Suben, an 18 year old Jack Hughes, which he's obviously has a ton more to give in the future, but you know, he's a kid and he weighs 165 pounds of fat sort of thing. You know, Nikita Guseb, who we're going to talk about here, I'm sure in a second is that, you know, coming over from Russia and the adjustment to North America and the North American ice and just the NHL in general and Wayne Simmons coming in. They just had a lot of new bodies, PK, too, who can't seem to find his game. I think that there is more to come. I think that, you know, we, we have been wrong thus far, but maybe if we have this conversation again in June,

that we might not be as far off the mark. I'm not as confident as you are. I don't know. It's, I mean, listen, I don't think they're going to be this bad. I think certainly some better goaltending. We'll go a long way beyond just like, I think, I feel like there's such a demoralizing component to it as well that we don't think about it from a psychological human element

where it's like, I wonder how much it changes your game if you are constantly thinking about the fact that one little slip up is going to result in the back of your net with a puck in the back of your net because your goalie can't bail you out. And so maybe you're not trying to be as aggressive as you could be otherwise. Maybe you're not trying stuff offensively because you don't want to mess up. And so certainly some better goaltending would go a long way towards fixing that. There still is a lot of talent here. I think we've seen flashes from Jack Hughes. I think people are disappointed or overwhelmed because we've been. really spoiled by some of these recent rookies that come in and just completely blow off the

door, blow the doors off right away and look like their age, your veterans that have been in the league and they've been doing this for years and they just make it look so easy. And sometimes we need to remember that an 18 year old, especially one who still has, you know, some some growing to do physically, putting on some weight, getting a bit stronger. He's going to be better. But there have been, you've seen that skill. And I think we've seen, um, I'm not sure how much it devils you watch but from what i've seen he's definitely looked more confident from more recent viewing i thought early on he was looking to kind of just try to fit in and not really uh mess up and in the most recent couple games there's you're seeing some of that like uh some of that hype some

that generational sort of patience and creativity with the puck where he's got it on a string and he's just dancing around the neutral zone and creating and so more of that would be great and i think we are going to see that as the season goes along so i'm still really high on him obviously moving forward. We're not going to give up on the first overall pick after 25 kind of overwhelming games. But he's one guy that I'm really high on. Still,

the other guys, we were like talking about Boquist or talking about Brat, even Gusev, just based on the usage, it's so tough to rely on that at this moment. So I'm not sure if you're going to be completely, you know, bailing,

but you really need to have tempered expectations moving forward, especially if this team does pull the plug on the season and potentially trades Taylor Hall. Yeah, that I was going to say. that's going to be a big deciding factor in what goes on with the rest of these guys. Because I think if the trend continues too much longer than this, that, you know, Hall's going to tap out himself.

And he's just going to make it clear that he's not interested in negotiating in the season. And into the devils, that's going to be loud and clear that they need to at least explore that option of moving him. And that will obviously tank the whole season. But, you know, I'm selling on Gusev. I'm dropping Brad. You know, just for Boquist is a good young player. But again, these are guys that we weren't looking for him and Brat to really explode this year.

but hopefully to produce in in some sample sizes and you know for stretches there and kind of show that they have more to give. I think Nico Hischer's been good in a two-way role. Arguably been, you know, probably their best player. You know, Gusev, it's been, it's been weird for him because to start the year, he was buried with defensive zone starts. Like, you know, Jack Hughes was getting something like 80% offensive zone starts and Gusev was getting 30%. That's kind of switched a little bit and now he's back. He's quite at 50% for the year. But so it's really swum. long the other way because, you know, obviously the team's going to have all the time in the world to give Jack Hughes tons of opportunities to let him work out all these hiccups. But for a guy like

Gusev, who's 27, he's on a two-year deal, you know, their commitment to him isn't going to be as long and as deep. So, you know, he's going to have to show things. And the fact that he's been in the doghouse, he's been a healthy scratch. He's playing 12 minutes a night. It's not looking great. I still think the skill is there for him. It's just, you know, it sucks. We talked about, you know, He's not Vadam Shippechev, but maybe he's Vatam Shippechev. Maybe he's going to go back to the KHL and go line up for Skah and go put up 80 points in the KHL in 50 games. And that's the type of player is. It's hard to believe that it's so much skill in a lineup together that you can't mesh.

But so far it hasn't worked out. I mean, it's tough. I think I can go one of two ways, right? Because I think for a player to reach this level, you need to be like a certain rare breed of, like, competitiveness that's inside of you. And I'm sure that you want to prove. and Gusev made a point of, you know, you mean giving back money on his contract in the KHL to come back, to come to the NHL and play and sort of cut his teeth here

and prove that he can play in the best league in the world. And so I think he wouldn't want to sort of just go back and be like, oh, you know, it didn't work out for me. I'm just going to keep doing what I was doing before because I do think he's invested in as they wants to prove it. But at the same time, like when you're coming from the highs he was in the KHL and how you're just an absolute stud there and you're leading your team in scoring,

you're the best player in the league. And then you come and it's like, you're playing 12 minutes night you're sitting in the press box you're playing with below average players that's a pretty big swing just like emotionally to go from one season to the next so i'm really curious to see how things go for them and i guess they can only really go up but i think Wayne simmons if we're looking for positives the production necessarily hasn't been there but i think to the eye test he has had more jump i thought towards the end of last year i think part of it was injuries part of it was just like a weird funk after being traded and not knowing what was going to happen with his contract status but he looked really

slow especially while he was on the Predators and I think he's looked a lot better and I think if he keeps playing around the net on the power play the production is going to come for him but you know with hall let's do a little bit of an exercise here and apologies to devils fans who I'm sure want to see Taylor Hall playing for their team for the next five six years and being their best player and winning the MVP and getting the back to their playoffs but if the season keeps going the way it has and he makes it clear as you said that he's not going to negotiate till the summer he might walk you know this is probably his last time during his prime to really put himself in a position to have regular playoff success, which is something he has only had a sniff of so far in his career.

What's the most interesting or sexiest landing spot in your mind for Taylor Hall, where it's like not necessarily even from a fantasy perspective, just from like a hockey fan perspective or, oh man, this would be awesome to see. Like what's the best fit in your mind for him to go there and just completely, you know, take his game up to another level and play with caliber of players. that he never really has throughout his career. Yeah, I'm probably greedy, but I'd say go go send him to Colorado. Right.

You know, you imagine that. That would just kind of blow the roof off things. And then kind of the chaos factor is why not head back to Evanton? You know, they don't have any wingers. They don't have anything really to trade for them too much, I guess, unless the devils they're going to buy on Pooley RV plus plus sort of thing. But yeah, you know, it's tough to see him resigning and so there's going to be a bidding more for him you know there's going to be a ton of

teams lining up there looking at and looking to grab a top six winger uh not necessarily an nbp that they can afford to do but uh you know i know buffalo's out there looking for a top six Vancouver's looking for a top six guys so there's going to be a lot of fun options but yeah for me colorado would just be the best yeah that that would be i mean i think the natural thing to think about is like oh man him and mckinan but it's like you wouldn't even want to play those two guys just because like from stylistically they both want to rush up the ice and carry the puck and I feel like you know I guess they could be just turned into a track meet and they're both just going north south completely but it feels like maybe um I mean if you have mckinna one line

and then haul on another and then you can split up landisg and rant and give them one each and then it doesn't even matter who the other center is uh you know I know they have cadre there and some of these young guys they like but at that point I mean hall basically he's just he's a he's a winger in name he plays like a center he controls possession like a center so it doesn't really matter who's playing with him. So that'd be fascinating. I think the HABs are an interesting team. I'm not sure how much they've been linked to him.

But here's the thing. They're doing something funky right now because of how the summer it turned out and how they didn't really wind up using their caps base. And I think they still have like open roster spots. They're clearly waiting for something. I don't know what's going on. And I think it's just generally smart business to maintain that flexibility and be able to pounce of an opportunity presents itself.

So good on Mark Berzman for doing that. But, you know, they've swung and missed throughout the years at, at signing and lowering big name free agents to come sign with them regardless of how much money they offer them. And so for them, I imagine there's a bit of appeal if he comes available to trade some assets and get him and sort of bring him into town, have a long playoff round. And hopefully that convinces him to stay with the team. So that would be interesting. And I think stylistically, like, that's a team that especially at 5-1-5 plays so fast, has so much skill throughout the lineup, is really tenacious and hard on the puck. and one thing they are missing is kind of that traditional star who the offense flows through as good as

Brendan Gallagher is and Max Domi and so on and so forth. So adding Taylor Hall to that mix, I think would be the most interesting in terms of elevating their ceiling and taking them from like a feisty team to someone that's legitimately scary. Yeah, yeah, I think you're absolutely right. Obviously, they went out and they tried to grab Ajo and, you know, they had them for a heartbeat and, you know, the whispers were that they, that they were looking to grab Braden Point as well too, but he didn't sign the offer. and I think that they're probably going to be linked to a few guys here. I think you're right. They have the room on the roster.

They have the cap space. You know, just looking at their lineup, they don't really have that number one center. I guess you could call Max Domi that. But, you know, Nick Suzuki is, he's got that potential coming up. Just Barry Kaukenyam. He has that potential coming up. So it will be a lot of fun.

And you're right, it is so difficult for them to bring in free agents because just the, the microscope is, it's so bright on every player there. So if a guy like Hall, maybe he doesn't want to, want that. Maybe he does, you know, the guy's an MVP. He played in a Canadian city. It worked for a little while anyways. And then just going back to the Colorado thing, too, is that I think you're probably right, is that him and McKinnon maybe wouldn't mesh because him and McDavid didn't mesh all that well with just being both wanting to have the puck and both being so fast and loving that North House game. So I think, I think Montreal would be a lot of fun and it'd be interesting

to see what they would have to move to get them to. Well, the good thing is, I mean, they've drafted so well throughout the years. They've both in terms of the quality of the picks, you know, they didn't really pick that high except for Kahnemi, but they've drafted well. They've had a ton of volume of picks as well. And so they have an interesting treasure chest of assets that if they wanted a cache and haul would be a natural fit despite the fact that I think most people would agree that blue line would be their biggest need, but you can never have enough talent and enough scoring punch.

So that would be interesting. Before we get into buy and sell, there's a bunch of other stuff we talked about. So there's the blue jackets and like the Panarin effect. We can get into that. The ducks. I don't know what too much there is to say about that. And Victor Olifson. So those are some of the things that we talked about.

And then there was like Kevin LeBank, Josh Morris, C.J. and Schwartz. Is there anything there that really kind of catches your eye or interests you in terms of, you know, just how surprising maybe the first two months have been in terms of our expectations heading in? Yeah, I think for a guy like LeBank is that it was a brutal start. I think the sharks in general look slower. They look older. it's that window seems to have closed quickly for them. We were kind of looking for him to be that, that driver in transitioning the core to more, you know,

Timo Meyer and things like that. And it hasn't really worked out. The last little while, he has been playing at 55, 60 point pace, which is nice. But Evander Cain's really poached all that top power play unit deployment. And it hasn't really left much for LeBang. So I'm definitely, I'm lower on San Jose than I was, whatever, two and a half months ago when we last spoke.

and consequently I'm lower on LaBank too. You know, we could mention Andre Casha, the shot generation is down a little bit, but he's still top 10 in the league. I think if they ever decide to lock him and Getslaff and Ricard Raquel together, that all three of their production is going to increase. And if Casha can stay healthy, then that's going to obviously be a big boon for him and for the team. But yeah, it's just the ducks can't score.

You know, what do they have five power play goals on the season? Pastor and I Scott tripled that himself. So it's pretty ugly in Anaheim out side of Johnny Gibson. Yeah, there's a lot of Cam Fowler. I don't know what's going on on that powerplay. And it's just like, it's so sad to think about where they were at three years ago. And they had like Shait Theater or Brandon Monsor or Sammy Button and all these guys. And now it's like, all right, well, are we getting Camphaler back out there?

Let's get a little Michael Delzato, Eric Branson, poo platter for you. Like there's like, I don't know what is going on. But, you know, some of the young forwards they haven't produced yet. But I think Troy Terry is up playing with Gatslov and Raquel now. And Gatsop and Raquel have been sneaky valuable as well. So, you know, there's certain things there. I think the arrow is still trending up based on where they were at this time last year when they either didn't have a coach or had the worst coach in the league.

I can't even decide which one's worse. But the blue jackets quickly, it's kind of been exactly what we thought, right? It's like the Panarin effect. Like the quantity of shots and looks is still there. Their shooting percentages way down. Their high danger chances are down. And it makes sense because they don't have a guy of Panarin's singular skill set to probe the defense and create for others.

So I think Pierre-Luc Dubois, especially lately, has been a bit immune to that just because he's such a beast. Cam Atkinson has had a much rougher goal of it. You know, part of that is shooting presenter driven, but I think we should expect his shooting presenters to come down based on who's passing the puck compared to last year. So, you know, four goals on 80 shots won't continue. But he has zero goals at 515 so far this year, which is pretty alarming and sort of speaks to where this team is at right now. It's been, you know, we've seen some sort of rumblings of one of my favorites. Emil Benstrom coming alive here. He's gotten some points.

Still not getting regular usage. Alex Texie has been a bit disappointing. I still like this team moving forward in terms of the individual players they have. But yeah, similar to Anaheim, it's like when you lack that high-end forward skill, it's really tough to piece it together in this league. No, it's true. And it's funny because I kind of like this team as well. And it's almost like the sum of their parts should make them a better.

team than they are and I think that that is going to come together. You know, Oliver Bjorks, I think he's taken a little step forward this season and it's just kind of been incremental for him and he might be one of these guys that 26, 27 really breaks out, a long-term project. But I do like Emil Bensstrom. You know, Pierre Lueblood, Camackinson, the goaltending hasn't been great. You know, we were hoping that Elvis was going to enter the building, but he hasn't really yet. And, you know, we can't really fault him.

He's a rookie goaltender on a team that doesn't score much, you know, and Eunice Carpicello hasn't been that much better either. So, you know, kind of Zach Werensky's been good. He's been across the board. He's been filling some categories, Seth Jones. But yeah, it's just kind of a bunch of lunch pail guys out there doing their thing. And it's, it's

not all that entertaining and it's not all that productive for points on the scoreboard. You know, one last thing, just as like a, it's an interesting thought exercise because Josh Morrissey is someone we talked about it. And I was really infatuated with him from a fantasy perspective and sort of a ceiling perspective, because you just

looked at the depth chart in front of them and it's like who else is going to play for them right it's like there's a certain number of minutes you have to allow to your defense every single night and it just seems like he's going to play so much and the power play ice time's up he's up from one 45 per game to 303 this year the 5-1-5s up the total time on ice is up and I guess he's getting you the counting stats but he has been a bit surprised by how much he struggled and maybe we just underestimated the effects of both a dip in quality of partner you're playing with but also like I think sometimes we just expect that opportunity is a good thing, but if you're being stretched too thin and asked to do too much based on your skill set,

sometimes it can have a real point of diminishing returns to a point where it actually really decreases your effectiveness as a whole. And so he's going to get there because he's playing so much and they have no other choice, but he struggled much more than I thought he would because I thought he was a really good player heading into this year. And maybe we just overvalued the effects of like just being able to casually go from being like your third defenseman to the number one, no problem.

No, and I think we did touch on that too, is that, you know, he was an offensive player in junior and he had the big counting stats, but he wasn't a dynamic offensive guy. He wasn't this type of player that would really drive the offense and just shouted that he was going to be a top power play guy in the bigs here. And so, like we said, he's lined there as a default option with all the holes on that blue line. And so I think you're right. I think that that has stretched him out a little bit is that, you know, he's starting

the play in the offensive zone more. But his course he four numbers that he's not driving the play as well as he was in the past when he wasn't seeing as many offensive zone starts. And, you know, the shooting percentage has dropped in his young career. He's been a six, six and a half, seven percent shooter. And so far he's been, you know, three and a half this year. So, you know, maybe we can, I hope we can expect that that trend to kind of continue over, you know, it's through his first 200 games.

He was nearly a 7% converter. So he's probably going to drag on pop a little bit here too. So, you know, he's playing at a 50. pace it's hard to argue with especially because he's basically everything on their back end so if he can go out and put up 50 points and even if he's going to play at a minus 10 or a minus 15 this year that you're probably going to take that as a jets fan and probably in fantasy because nobody's counting plus minus anymore right that's true i hope not i really hope not um all right let's uh let's wrap things up here by doing some some quick buy-ins out is there any uh

you know things or developments early on in the season that we didn't fully expect heading in or we wanted to see that have played out and you're like either all in and you're like, this is going to continue and I'm buying as much stock as I can while I still can or is there certain things or whether it's a team or whether a player where you're like, I'm going to cash in now while I still can because I think it's going to get a lot worse. Yeah, there's a couple guys. I've got a whole bunch of surprises and do I like them? And a few of them, no, I don't.

So I think an easy one to point out is Ryan Strom. Nobody saw this coming. And so, you know, I was pretty upset when the Rangers dumped, Phil Piedel down to the minors to start the year and they put Strom as their de facto number two center. And I was like, oh gosh, you know, like is cackle going to be stuck with Ryan Strom all season? And he's been good. You know, when Zbinichet has gone down, he took over that first line role and him and Panarin were clicking. And, you know, if you grabbed him off the wire early on there, then you've been cashing in.

But, you know, unsurprisingly, the metrics, they're not matching up with what we're seeing on the end. So his personal end is even strength shooting percentage. They're way too high. That deployment was never going to last. You know, I think tonight he was playing on the second line. wing, which is interesting rather than getting pushed all the way down. You know, I see him 20 minutes a night, though, with those top options, he better put up some points. And so he did that.

And so he's banked some now already. But, you know, if you haven't sold already, the time has come and probably passed. But we see these guys happen all the time. Every year, there's always going to be one or two that kind of jump off the page. And Stron put up 50 points for the Islanders a few years ago. And so he's another one of these guys similar to Nino Nieder rider is that he seems to get traded when he has low metrics. and someone buys super, super low on him. I love that tweetier, or is it surely lost both ends of the deal?

And it's too true, right? Is nobody in the organization's looking at these numbers and deciding that, like, oh, hey, this guy's on a string of bad luck, or, hey, this guy's on a string of good luck. Maybe now's the time to sell. Yeah, it's amazing. In a span of, like, what, 14 months, he traded Jordan Eberley for him, and then he traded him for Ryan Spooner, who he then traded for Sam Guy. It's, you know, Matt, Shirelli, classic stuff.

But you're right. I mean, if there's someone in your league who's looking at it, it's like, oh, 23 points and 23 games, like, yeah, I want this guy. I would be selling as well. I mean, you know, he was riding shotgun with Panarans, bin and Jad's back now, 14.7 on high shooting percentage, 18.8 individual. Like, that's not going to continue, although it's crazy. Like, when he go into the Rangers at the end of last year, he shot like 20-something percent in a limited time with him. But I don't think anyone's expecting that he's that type of a true talent shooter. And he's also trade bait.

And I'm very curious to see what's going to happen. Because I think even if he's not playing on the first line with the Rangers, they don't have anyone as good as Panarin, but they have other skill players and they're going to play so loose and open-ended hockey that there's a lot of points to go around for everyone on that team. But, you know, he's an RFA. He's going to get a new contract this summer. I'm not sure if he really fits into the plans of the Rangers moving forward.

And if they're smart, this would be a great time at some point, especially if the percentages keep up for a while long, to cash in and get a potential extra first round pick for him from someone. So I'm not sure if he goes anywhere. If he goes somewhere else, I mean where he's going to be playing the lineup, how he's going to be used, if this is going to continue. So I'm right there with you. I would be selling regardless of what Tony DiAngelo says on Twitter,

I don't think this production is going to continue for him. No, I'm with you too. Arbitration eligible as well, too. So he's building himself a nice case to get himself a decent RFA deal if it does go to arbitration. But why don't we just roll right into Tony D as well? because I think that he's a bit of a surprise too because, you know, I actually figured he was going to be the guy

that was squeezed out with Truba and Adam Fox joining the fray. But instead, you know, he's been their best D asset offensively and in the fantasy landscape. So him and Truba have pretty much identical power play time on ice this season and he's doubled the production. You know, he's clicking 60% better than Adam Fox, who I actually think has been very, very good and the numbers maybe haven't followed along yet.

But he's still got a lot of upside there too. But, you know, DeAngelo, he's been good. He still doesn't shoot enough. I'd like to see him keep putting that up there, but he's banked enough points that when his personal shooting percentage drops, which it will, that I think he's still going to be able to produce. And, you know, it's always interesting to see when a big name, free agent or a trade

comes to town and everyone kind of just assumes that, hey, Jacob Troop is going to be the man on that top power plant unit. And he could never be the man in Winnipeg, but all of a sudden he'll do it for the Rangers, is that no, you know, that DeAngelo has always been a pure offensive guy. And it's taken them a little bit longer. He's been in three organizations. He's been traded. He's had the whispers about the attitude and things like that.

But maybe he's waking up, maybe he's figuring it out, and he's getting a good opportunity on a bad team in New York, and he's kind of stockfiling the points earlier. See, I was going to say, I think I was like, I had a note in here is basically the effect of, is Adam Fox already the best defenseman on the Rangers? You know, his first five, in the first seven games, started off slowly.

He had zero points. He was playing like 15 minutes a night. Only six shots combined in those seven games. in the 16 games since then four goals nine assists 34 shots I think seven times he's played over 20 minutes and so the usage is still up and down as it is with tony de angelo they're still trying to figure out what's going on if they make a mistake it seems like david Quinn's a bit too quick on the trigger to bench them but

i don't fox is so slick man uh tonight against the hurricanes he had this ridiculous pass where it's like he wanted to pass it then he noticed uh on the power play that Dougie Hamilton had a stick in the lane, but he saw that Ryan Strom was right there in the middle in front of the net, so he knew Dougie Hamilton was to gravitate towards him. Hamilton goes to tie up the stick, and as soon as he lifts his stick off the ice, Fox has this like one split second, tiniest window ever to get the puck across the ice. There's a Benajad for a tap-in, and he does it. And just that sort of sense, and you watch him in terms of that kind of recoverability when he's defending as well and how smoothy is, like he looks like the complete package and it feels like every night he looks better. and better. And so I think just from a ceiling perspective in terms of the offensive talent, but also the defensive well-rounded game that is going to get him in the good books of David Quinn

and are going to earn him those regular minutes. I feel like Fox has the highest upside in terms of being the complete package and putting it all together. No, I'm right there with you. I've watched a few Rangers games where he, you know, he was creating all the time and the points just weren't coming for him just yet. But you could see, and basically that play you just described is the definition of of hockey IQ or on ice awareness and just being, you know, the game slows down for those players that can really see things happening. And so he definitely has that. And he's, it's really been fun to watch his progression the last few years at Harvard and then, and now obviously step in in the NHL because he was a bit of a forgotten asset as a 17, 18 year old. He was left for dead is that,

you know, he's a little slow footed at times, you know, not, not that great defensively. And just, he is so smart. He is so creative and it's all starting to come together. And I think you're right. I think he's probably the best defenseman on the Rangers that's far this year. And it's been, what, 25 games in his career? And so it's scary as a 21-year-old, what he's going to be doing at 23, 24. And you're right, you need to be able to earn the trust of your coach.

Because if you're out there freewheeling and you're creating and you're getting points, that's great. But if someone's going to score when you're on the ice, regardless of the team, then that's not going to earn you too much faith on the back end. So it's a similar thing with Quinn Hughes where you, you know, you can be great, but you still need to clean up your own mistakes when you do make them. the best defensive and they can do that.

All right, let's talk about Quinn Hughes. I am all in the Canucks Power Play. I mean, it makes sense. Like, when you look at the personnel, it's like, it's a great combination of five players to put out there in terms of, you're following that Tampa Bay model. You have two shooters in Pedersen and Besser on opposite circles.

You have Quinn Hughes at the point. You've got J.T. Miller kind of mixing up around the net and got to be in that Swiss Army knife that does everything. but what's really stuck out to me is like when you look at the numbers at the start of the year when Alex Adler was on that unit and then when you look at what's happened since Quinn Hughes finally got a full-time spot there

they've been the best power play in the league that there's no two ways about it in terms of their efficiency in terms of the rate of which they're generating shots, chances, attempts, goals, what you have it and the fact that they're drawing so many penalties and kind of playing the style that's very aggressive and their games are really wide open,

and there's a lot of events happening, lends itself to more opportunities for them, and more opportunities for that power play is music to people's ears right now because they're kind of firing on all cylinders. And so whether it's Hughes, whether it's J.T. Miller, who, I guess we all undervalued in terms of how effective he'd be

and sort of what he could do on this team and in this new role, and everyone knows about Besser and Pedersen as well and Horvatt to a lesser extent, but all five of those, those guys are absolute machines when they're out there with the extra man. They are. And all five of them are in the top, like, eight for average power play deployment on the season, too. So they're all seeing over four minutes a night on the top unit, which is great.

And, you know, so just coming into the night, Hughes is leading the league for defenders, for time on ice on the power play. He's leading defenders of 13 points on the back end there, too, on the power play. He's really the addition for me. So obviously, J.T. Miller's been terrific. He's really fit in well. He's kind of been used to spark a couple of different lines, but he looks great on that top unit.

But for me, it's all about Quinn Hughes. So the way he can skate and gain the zone and then create, and he just causes so many mismatches by driving down low and making guys miss. And he has that ability to just make you miss with that quick turn. And all of a sudden, a couple guys are wide open for a shot. And he's been so, so dynamic.

And again, just another kid who's got 30 games under his belt and that there's only more and better things to come. And so I have a whole section here. and about the Canucks Power Play because it has been something that I am buying in on to for sure. And so they leave the league in in opportunities. They leave them in goals. And like you said, early on there, and kind of another factor to look at is that how good Quinn is, is that early on the season when they had him on the second unit.

And Edler was on that top one. That second unit was creating more shots and more chances than the first unit was. And he's out there with Tanner Pearson and Josh Levo and guys like that. And that's just ridiculous. There's no way that they should be even coming close to what Pedersen and Bessor and Horvatt and those guys are doing. And so I'm a huge fan, obviously, of Quinn Hughes. I've loved him. He was number three on my board in that draft year.

There was no reason he should have fallen to seven. And so that was just a gift for Vancouver. Well, and we're seeing it's like kind of becoming a trademark move. And, you know, now when teams adjust to it, they're going to have to accordingly kind of add a second part to that move. But whether it's McCar or Hughes, like, they're faking that draw pass on the power play breakout and then just taking it themselves. And Hughes did it again today against Pittsburgh, where it created a, a goal post opportunity for them. And so, you know, it's so much more fun to watch.

And that's, like, the perfect example of, like, when you think about, like, how frustratingly stagnant that power play was with Edler, where it was like, okay, that neutral zone drop-pass. And they get in. Nice passing play. Puck goes their point. And he just, like, weakly shoots it from distance into a defender's shin pads and the puck's out of the zone.

And instead, with Hughes, constantly probing, constantly looking for better angles, do something effective when dangerous the puck. And it's just, it's so fun to watch. And it's like the type of hockey that, um, I want to watch, but I also hope to see more of like the success of it. Hopefully it will breed more of those players to come into the league down the road, but also encourage teams to like empower them and embolden them right out of the gate and give them an opportunity as rookies, as second year players,

even though they're teens and even though they're an experience because they're just so much more effective than the alternative of like your traditional sort of meat and potato as a fenceman who just treats the puck like a grenade. No, you're right. And it's a copycat league. The only thing is that the reps put the whistles. away in the playoffs. So we see these teams, they want to mimic the guys that are

doing the high end, the high skill plays, and you're naturally, you gravitate to it. And I'm sure coaches all across the league wish they had to kill McCar or Quinn Hughes on their back in or a Rasmus stall and to do this kind of thing. But come springtime, the whistles get put away. And all of a sudden, we see one power play a game and all of a sudden, it

does become those meat and potato guys. But I think you're right, is that hopefully we're going to see this slowly transition where high end thinkers and skaters and skillful players, even if they're 5 foot 9 on the back end are given more of an opportunity to to play their game and not have the reins pulled on them

and the training wheels. And when they do make a mistake, all of a sudden they're plastered to the bench, is that you need to take the good with the bad, especially with the high end ones that there's so much good. There's way too much good. And quickly, we can touch on Kiel McCar too, is that he's been amazing. We're going to have a lot of fun watching him and Dahlian and Hughes for the next 15 years do their thing. And McCar's not going to put up

95 points like he's on pace for or whatever this season. The shooting percentages is out of whack. But, you know, it's great to see the young kids stepping in with the high skill in and being given an opportunity. And for Colorado, it's just to be like, okay, we'll just trade Tyson Barry and we'll get ourselves a locked-in, awesome second-line center. And we'll just hand the first power play to this rookie. And he'll go out and put up 60 plus points. Well, Tyson Barry, that's a good transition because the other thing I'm buying and maybe the window to do so is rapidly closing for fantasy owners. but I am buying

I'm buying as many shares I can of the Leafs under Sheldon Keefe you know three games in you can throw out the game against the Red Wings because everyone's going to put up ridiculous numbers against them we've already talked about how much of a mess they are

but it's just everything that was wrong with the Mike Babcock regime in terms of the on ice product we're already seeing it so far in terms of they're playing more off the rush they're more aggressive there's much more puck support they're on it they're trying to create they're really

allowing their players, especially Riley and Barry to jump up and be aggressive and do everything that's made them successful throughout their careers. And so, you know, part of it is luck for Barry in terms of like he had zero goals on like 55 shots or whatever under Babcock. And now he's got three and three games on like seven shots. And, you know, that was going to happen anyways, I think. But just from the eye test, it looks like it's night and day in terms of the product. And so you don't want to buy too much stock into three games. But I'm looking, I'm viewing it from perspective of like this is the team that we thought we were going to get heading into the year so it lines up much more it's not necessarily surprised and the only that's the surprise is that it took

this long to get it yeah right before he got can there too a couple weeks earlier is the babcock came out and just said you know texenberry's got to figure it out because he's not going to be getting top power play deployment and you're just like basically saying like we're just going to waste this asset that the team brought in and and keep him away from everything that's made him successful and now shelvin keith comes in he's like oh hey we'll just just put him on the top power play unit. And look at that. He's good again. And so I was saying at the Dover Hockey and the ramblings there for weeks now leading up to this, too,

is that buy-in on Tyson Berry. Two things are going to happen. Three things, I guess. Babcock's going to get fired. He's going to get better deployment. It's not going to work out and they're going to deal him because he's going to be a UFA and, you know, whatever. Or he's going to walk at the end of the year and sign somewhere like Winnipeg.

And all of a sudden, his stock's going to skyrocket, too. So in Keeper Leaks, you get ahead of the bum rush and you get a hold of this guy. And even if you got to eat it all season. and he's going to be a great player again next year. And lo and behold, you know, we wait a couple of weeks and and he's back being the player that he should be. And so I'm right there with you. The Leifs should be a high octane team.

You know, they have the horses for it. They can run. They can gun. And then, you know, Freddie Anderson's a good goaltender too. So they can play the shutdown games if they need to when the playoffs come around. But no, I'm with you. I'm buying all in on Sheldon Keith and kind of the new mantra that's going on in Toronto. All right.

Well, let's, you know, let's put a pin in here. There's a bunch of other guys I want to talk about, but I feel like we could stay here all night. So we'll save it for a future show in a later date, and we can reconvene and discuss some other stuff down the road. Plug some stuff. Where can people find you? What are you working on? All that good stuff.

Yeah. Hockey Understrow Robinson at Twitter. Just doing my thing there. We've got a big thing coming out at EP Ringside for Elite Prospects. We've got our draft rankings dropping Friday morning. That's going to be big. We've had scouting meetings all week. So it's a fun board.

I think people are going to like that, especially draft junkies too. So, yeah, fantasy stuff at Dauber Hockey, running down with our prospects, doing a lot of stuff with a lot of people. It's a fun year so far. Doing a lot of stuff with a lot of people. Yeah, sounds about right, man. Well, this was a blast. I'm glad we got to do this.

And hopefully people found it insightful, informative. And we will do this again sometime soon. Absolutely, man. Looking forward to it. The HockeyPedioCast with Dim Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud. at soundcloud.com slash HockeyPedioCast.