The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 337: Card Carrying Member of the Goalie Union

Episode Date: January 24, 2020

Kevin Woodley joins the show to discuss goalies, how dependant their performance is on the system in front of them, and the trouble with signing them to long-term deals during a time when the game is changing so much. Plus we talk about Robin Lehner's next contract, how the Capitals should handle the passing of the torch in their crease, and the Rangers' three-headed monster in net.See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dimitri Philpovich. And joining is my good buddy Kevin Woodley. Kevin, what's going on, man? Not much, not much. We said we were going to follow up. Normally we only do this once a year, but we said we were going to follow up the pre-season. Now I'm a little worried. Did you actually make notes? How many of my predictions? Like, I'm worried that we're going to check my predictions and they're all total horse bleep. I didn't do that. Okay, good. All right, then I'm in.

I think we were pretty good. And we also couched it with the whole, there's a certain level of unpredictability that both you and I acknowledge. Well, I think, like, I mean, as a goalie guy, I sit on the fence so much, my ass hurts. So hopefully I did that effectively at the beginning, so I can't get killed now. Well, okay, let's get into it. I've got some notes here. I've got like maybe 10 situations I want to get into with you. And I think the natural starting point for us is the Sergey Bobrovsky situation because I want to get into his numbers, but also just like the ripple effect it's going to have around the league, right? Because I have to admit that, and I've talked about him a bunch on this podcast, but it's mind blowing to me that when you got, when you sign a goalie to a seven year, $70 million deal and he's already in his 30s, I think everyone, I imagine even Dale Tallinn and the Florida. a panther's front office probably acknowledged that it's not going to age very well in the latter couple of years. And I think everyone accepted that. I think very few people probably anticipated

that the wheels would kind of go off this quickly. And now it's a tricky nuanced discussion to have, especially when you compare to, for example, what the blue jackets are getting from the people who replaced him in net and how little they're paying for them, because they are two entirely different environments where the Panthers once again have this situation. where they're great. I think they're the number one offensive team actually right now in terms of goal generation.

But defensively. They give it right back. They're basically the Maple Leafs, whereas Columbus under John Totterall now has embraced this amazing defensive environment where it's like a goalie heaven where they're doing such a remarkable which I was watching the game closely,

actually recording this Thursday afternoon. So last night, it was one of the only few games on before the All-Star break. It was Columbus versus Winnipeg. And it was mind-blowing to me watching, and I love Elvis Merz-Lickens. he's amazing story so fun but the job columbus does either blocking the shots or allowing their goalie to face up the shooter and cleanly mono a mono try to make the save is remarkable like i could count on

like one hand the number of times merzlickens actually had to like move laterally and do something reactionarily as opposed to just like read and react shots top five defensive environment in the n hl in terms of expected say percentage and a lot of these numbers as well, just going to couch this as we start. I have access to ClearSight Analytics, the company run by Stephen Valacette, have a password that allows me to sort of see behind the curtain a little bit and see some of these numbers and get a better sense of this.

So we've talked about it before, 34 points of data for shot. To me, one of the richest contexts that are out there, I know it's not publicly available, one of the deeper contexts in terms of measuring shot quality. And when you add it all up for the Columbus Blue Jackets, they are a top five defensive environment, right up there with the Arizona coyotes and the Dallas stars and the New York Islanders.

And so not surprising maybe to see then that the goaltenders behind those environments are, hey, what do you know, all having a lot of success. Now, in Columbus's case, what makes it unique is they're new to it. These are goaltenders that didn't have a rich history. And so there was a risk there. And there were bumps along the way early in the season where they had to trust these young kids. And I think, you know, not to go too back pat on this. early, but, you know, in our first conversation, um, I get a strike because I thought Bob would

be able to adjust to Florida. Um, I get a back pat for saying that I didn't think the goaltenders were the problem in Florida. And that's kind of borne out with how Rimer has done in Carolina. But also, I, I wasn't worried about the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yeah. In terms of their goaltending, because I believe Eunice Corpusallo is like his skill set, his patience. We talked about it. This is where the game's going. Lateral mobility and patience before commens. admitting down and his was exceptional. Emmerz Lickens, I know the goaltending coach that's worked with him in Switzerland and helped with the transition.

Hasn't got a lot of love publicly, but helped with the transition this summer, getting Elvis ready to come over to the NHL and has actually been a guy that Elvis has leaned on through those first couple of months conversationally and for sort of mindset and peace of mind. Michael Lawrence, who still works for Lugano in the Swiss League, like talking to him and knowing and seeing video of him in Lugano and the work ethic. that Elvis had in the skill set. Like, it was all there. Just a matter of getting comfortable.

For Elvis, the struggle was not playing early. For Corpusallo, maybe the pressure of replacing Bob. Right. But all those things get a little easier when your environment is predicted. Yeah. And it's been a really good fit. So I'm not shocked. Maybe the winning, because I wasn't sure they'd be a good enough team to,

A, create that environment. And that's credit to Torts as well as guys like Seth Jones, who talk about underrated and overlooked, should probably have at least one Norris finalist on his resume already. Seth Jones and the defensive environment, I didn't know if they'd be able to score enough, but credit to the coaching staff for creating the environment and then credit to the goaltenders for being able to thrive within it.

And many legacy, of course, the goaltending coach there as well. So, you know, it's interesting. We're going to have the deepest class of unrestricted, and restricted free agent goaltenders we've ever seen this summer. And have we learned anything? Have teams learned anything? do you need a big ticket guy because you've got a crappy defensive environment or do you spend the money on creating a better defensive environment

and understanding that, yeah, you need to have skill, but you maybe don't need to have a superstar. And the other part there is Columbus, dude, that depth chart. Yeah. It's easy to lose Bob. When you've got Corpus Sallow behind him, Enmer's Likens, and there's the Finnish kid. The other Latvian that won his debut,

but the Finnish kid's actually more impressive. And then you got Daniel Terrace off, who to me might be end up being the best of the bunch. Like some of the comparisons I've heard from goalie coaches overseas on this kid. Like they call him basically Pecker-Rene with a more refined technical game. He's like 6-6, 6, 6, 7, and he's got a more refined technical game at a younger age. Like just Ian Clark, Vancouver Canucks goal-tending coach was part of building that pipeline, and I think Columbus is going to see it pay off, not just this year, but for years to come.

Well, the reason why I brought up Barowski not to belabor the point about his numbers and all that is, is that discussion that you and I have had on this show before and that people are having around the league in terms of everyone knows that long-term investments are a risky proposition in goalies, but even in the short-term, that sort of balance or allocation of resources in a salary gap system of paying a goalie when I think so few around the league have, whether it's the raw talent or the ability to consistently outperform their environment, right? We see all the time where I guess it's easier if you're thinking,

oh, we can just throw a bunch of money at one guy than changing six defensemen or whatever, we're getting a complete roster buy-in to completely change the way we play. But as we're seeing with Bobrovsky now, it's really tough to, no matter how talented you are, if you're going into an environment where you're constantly facing all of these high dangerous shots, these backdoor passes, going east-west, everything from the slot, of course the same percentage is going to be low. And so I guess that's my question. And so I also kind of bridge it to that UFA class and Robin Lainer, who I know you've talked to

with quite a bit. Well, let's first take a look at Bob. Yeah. because like like you know let's let's also recognize that that environment has been bad but he's been bad too he hasn't been great he's actually but you know when you adjust it to the environment i think it's one of the i'm just doing a little math here because we don't have a negative list um you know don't count backwards on this but i'm looking at so from starters one to i'm naming holby the worst martin jones the next on the list um Craig Anderson jimmy howards

maybe some surprises yeah he's it he's in a bottom five environment and his performance relative to it is he's all like he's just he's gotten to the point now where he's almost break even in terms of matching expected he's 0.04 below expected according to these numbers from ClearSight which you know puts him 25th in the league the problem is you're not paying 10 million dollars a year for 25th in the league performance yes so that environment I think requires a bigger adjustment than I expected frankly um I still like to think he could get there because when I watch him play when I watch him practice when he was in town here and I watch the work ethic that he puts in and I look at the explosiveness, the mobility.

Like the skill set and the tools haven't changed. The predictability of what goes on in front of him, the softness of that defense as skilled as they are at moving the puck and creating offense, the softness of it in front of his net and sort of battening down the hatches in the house has hurt him, a lot of rebounds and second chance opportunities. But there's also a comfort level. Like your ability as a goaltender to read off of the environment. in front of you.

Even if it's a less predictable environment, you will adjust over time. And I still think, I think we all counted on Quenville as a coach, being able to tighten that up. And it hasn't really happened yet, but it's trending up. Like I said,

Bob's looks like he said, like eighth or seventh or eighth worst environment or hardest environment among starters. When I looked at this list in late November, Dimitri, he was like he was right there with Marty Jones as one of the toughest environments

in the entire league. So it is improving, and his numbers compared to expect it are getting better. But again, relative to a $10 million salary cap hit in the expectations, absolutely not. But it hasn't been the unmitigated disaster that it's at least all on him that it's been painted. I mean, it's, it is in the grand scheme of things where it's year one of a $70 million deal. And if this is going to be the next seven years, acknowledging that he might even athletically lose some of that burst and agility, like that's going to be a tough pill to swallow. Yeah, and I guess that's a quite, like to me, that's a bigger question. Well, I guess it's all question marks, but like I, you know, I've seen the way he trains.

I've seen the changes in the train. I think we talked about that the last time we were on how he hadn't had a groin injury since changing the way he trained. Kat Silverman, full props to her for having the story at Ingo Mague on the changes he made with some finished trainers to go from like 70 games missed over three seasons with groin injuries to none since. So I'm not so worried about the physical breaking down, but you're right. Like I understand the optics.

I understand it looks terrible. I just think that, you know, just as we said before, I don't, when I see Roberto Luongo with a career 919 and James Reimer at 913, both tanks sub-900, to me that tells me that, yeah, okay, the goaltending is part of it. I'm not taking them off the hook completely. But when two guys with such consistency over there, especially Lou, like the consistency of his career, to take a dip like that at the same time as James did, to me there had to be something in the water there, right? and that was the defensive environment.

And now Rimer's in a better defensive environment. He's got some of the better numbers in the league. Well, look, it's similar to that 2017-18, I think Islanders team, right? Where it's like Thomas Grice and Yarrow-Halak completely fall off the map. And it's like two goalies. I was like watching an all-star game. Yeah. And then all of a sudden, Halak goes to Boston.

Grice gets Barry Trots. And it's like, oh, both guys are all of a sudden amongst the top five and say a person. That is my ultimate. That actually is like, I used to just say goaltending doesn't exist in a vacuum. What the environment matters. And that's actually now the perfect. They are the textbook example from all-star game type numbers to some of the best goal-tending in the league, all with the changes system and a change and sort of focus under Barry.

But here's the reason why I brought that up, and I don't want to get you into trouble as a card-carrying member of the goalie. I'm not trying to take money out of the pockets of these goleys, but what I am saying is that if you're a GM building a team, and you acknowledge term. But even short-term, though, realistically, if we're just talking right now about how dependent goalie performance is on the environment around them. I guess it depends on whether you think you can change the environment, right? Like that's the question. So I'll give you the example, Jacob Marksham, obviously being here in the Vancouver market and having a weekly, you know, paid radio hit on TSN 1040, I look at his game a lot.

I get asked about his pending status as an unrestricted free agent a lot. And my answers are the same. Like if I was a GM, I would avoid term on goaltending. In part because it changes so much. Not just can the environment change with personnel in front of them and with coaching staffs as they change, but the game itself. Like Matt Murray won two Stanley Cubs, and when they signed his contract extension, a lot of people were like, why don't you lock them up longer term? Well, it's looking pretty smart now.

And I honestly believe, and I've done some film work on this recently and talked to a lot of goalie coaches around the league, this isn't Matt Murray's fault. Like the game has evolved in a way that goes away from his strength. His ability to stay patient and locked in on shooters and not bite first from a low, wide stance in straight lines, which the penguins were really good at creating, was exceptional. And they want to stand the Cups that way. Now, even though I still think the penguins are pretty good defensive,

and Jari's got some of the better expected, say, percentage numbers in the league, and he's outperformed them, but they expect that are high. The league has just shifted its focus offensively so much. And we're seeing this with some of the public models. their expected goals aren't matching, right? To me, this is, and I've talked to the teams, I know there are teams like the Washington Capitals who allowed their goalie coach to take look,

to have access to clear-side analytics and change the way they attack, to try and create the type of offense that creates goals. Yes. And that involves passouts from below the goal line, plays across the slot line. It involves specific types of traffic, not just crash-in-net,

but managing layered screens, because we can calculate the data now on what is effective for scoring goals. And from a goal-tending standpoint, as more and more, I can't remember what the numbers were. And I haven't figured out the system, to be honest enough, to call up the total. But I believe Steve told me something like 1,300 more chances

across the slot line year-to-year, last season, over the year before. So as a goaltender, you have to be able to move laterally. You have to be able to move well laterally. Matt Murray, low, wide. What happens when we get low and wide as a goaltender, we get locked in. It's very hard to move.

Carrie Price, experimented with skates that a lot of goalies are switching to, but he felt locked in because he felt like the skates were taller, which allows him to get a better edge, but in order to compensate for being taller off the ice in his skates, he got lower and wider his stance, and he couldn't move.

He became static, he became locked in. You can't play in today's NHL as a goaltender if you are locked in low and wide, as Ian Clark here in Vancouver likes to call it, too low, too wide, too soon. And what Jacob Markham, one of his biggest changes, stance adjustment, three-stance system starts next.

Even as a guy is 6-7, watch how narrow his stance are when the play is around the perimeter. Go back and compare that to two years ago. He'd be locked into his save execution stance as soon as the puck came over center ice. So changes like that, not every goal he's going to be able to adjust like Jacob has. And so signing a guy back to the original point, you know me long-witted all over the map, but back to the original point, the game has changed in two years so much that I believe Matt Murray's strength and style now needs to be a...

style needs to be adjusted because it's no longer a strength against this type of offense. I don't think he's a bad goalie, but I think the game has changed so much. And so if you're going to lock a guy in long term and there's that much volatility, not just when the goal tenant, but in the types of chances they face and how can it, it can affect whether they're better or more poorly suited to that type of shot. Like, yeah, like, I would not go term. And I know they're going to take away my goal of union card, but term is the one thing I'd avoid. As far as money and, hey, we can just go out on the list and find a guy, that's a tougher answer.

Because take a look at the Canucks. They're kind of locked in on their back end. They could lose Tanna of this summer, but Edler's here for a couple of years. Hughes, who has been an absolute freaking delight to watch, he's the future. Tyler Myers is locked in. That's not a great defensive environment. Jacob Markstrom, when we looked at the goal saves above average by CSA, has a very looking at before, he leads the NHL at over 14. If you're the Canucks and you know his work ethic,

you know the confidence he brings to your team. There's a swagger and there's a, there's an attitude. I mean that in a positive way. And he's liked by his teammates. Maybe not always the most delightful guy for us in the media, but he's loved in that room. Are you willing to, like you can look at all the numbers you want and then guys that are cheaper and one B options and we got Demcom, we got to worry about the expansion draft, but are you willing to roll the dice on that as a team that probably isn't going to be able to change your defensive environment significantly in the next two years? And you've got a guy who's outperforming it and has basically since midway through last season when these changes I talked about became really innate to him and comfortable to him.

Or are you going to hedge? And I don't have the answer. It's a tough spot for them because I look at it And I'm like, yeah, the rest of the league doesn't have these numbers and doesn't appreciate how good he's been, frankly. So I don't know that if they do decide to lock him in long term and pay big, are they negotiating against anyone but themselves? I don't pretend to have the answers, but I can also see the conundrum from, it's the same situation Winnipeg was in. Connor Hellebuck, after all those years of Andre Pavelick. Yeah, but he's so much younger, though. It's such a better bet, I think. Was it 24 when they signed them?

24, 25, one good Vezna's season. But remember what I said about that season, when you adjusted the numbers, he was 13th in the league. Because they were really good at, Connor Hellebuck is fantastic. You give him straight line attacks, and I think he's one of the best in the league. I was worried when they signed him that if the attacks became more lateral, there would be a drop-off. There was a drop-off last year. But I watch him now, and you see, there's where you know what you have in him.

They believed in the work ethic and the drive, because the things that I thought were still issues, even as a Vesna finalist that might be exposed as defense got looser, he's solved. Like, his lateral movement, and he's fixed them. He's continued to get better. I think the Canucks see Jacob Martyrn with a similar work ethic and think he can even continue to evolve. So the devil you know becomes something you're willing to overpay for. I'm not justifying it, but I can see it from that side.

I really do think latching yourself to a goalie, any goalie, honestly, I would even say this about the Vasselowski contract, just like acknowledging all of that risk and, as we're talking of this market, especially this summer, I think. You know, I'm just going to list off names for you because you were kind of beating around it. Holtby, Crawford, Lennar, Markstrom, and then you've got all the one-bees in the amazing defensive environments. And I think it's going to be fascinating to see how the league views them if they kind of switch teams in Grice, Halak, and Hudobin.

And whether those guys accept, like, obviously, I think each of those guys probably wants to make as much money as they can. But, like, let's say a guy like Yarrow Halak, maybe he might take a bit less to stay in Boston acknowledging that 35 starts behind that Bruins defense is probably pretty sweet compared to like maybe making an extra million or so playing 45 games for a shitty team. And then you got Powell Francius, but then you also have all these RFAs. We're going to get into Alexander Georgia here in a bit, but that Columbus has both of their goalies as RFAs.

Pittsburgh has both of theirs. So obviously you'd have to, you know, either offer sheet those guys or trade some sort of asset to get their rights, but that's like half the league in terms of goalies that conceivably could be had this summer. I mean, as much as you might love a guy like Markstrom, like when there is, it's a supply and demand situation, in my opinion. And it's like, it's a buyer's market. It's a buyer's market. And if you're negotiating now on an extension before the market opens, my argument would be you're negotiating against yourself.

So yeah, I mean, I see that side of it. And like I said, I acknowledge the other side of it. Why Winnipeg felt they had to get, had to lock in Connor? And he's, and he's rewarded them. He's been, he's been a vet. You should be a Vesna finalist this year, along with Markstrom. The difference is, hellibucks, being. widely recognized and Jacob isn't.

Yeah. So I get both sides of it. I think the real answer, Demetri, is to be able to drill down into these numbers even further and understand, okay, what is it about the way the Bruins defend? And I mean, we see some of these numbers and you would hope that these teams are doing this type of diligence, like, you know, behind the net to slot one timers, behind the net, clear sight shots, clear site, really. I'm scrolling down a list of like 40 different types of scoring plays that clear site

analytics identifies. Right. And so if I'm the Canucks with Jacob Markstrom and I'm giving up, I'm not pulling it up in front of me right now, but say I'm giving up a ton of chance number A and Markey's really good at it. And then I look at Halak with his numbers and they hardly give up any or they give up half as much, but his numbers are terrible. That's probably not going to be a real good fit. There are specific types of plays that fit certain types of styles. And so I would hope, you know, and I've heard John Chica, I saw a quote a couple years ago, and I haven't been able, I haven't been gotten an interview to be able to ask in person where they said they had identified an aspect of Darcy Kemper's game within the numbers. Is it the fact that he's six, or whatever? That probably doesn't hurt.

But look at 8 and HAL and Ranta. His environment, well, Ranta's a little guy, but it doesn't hurt that his environment's also one of the best in the league in Darcy Kemp. But there was something about them having identified a specific aspect of his numbers. that fit their team in terms of what they gave up in system. And I would hope that a lot of teams are looking at that before they make any type of commitment, let alone a big commitment. And I think that's why teams like Vancouver with Markstrom

and Winnipeg with Hellebuck, you know, again, it's the devil you know. We know what our system is. We're not playing on changing it. Travis Green's not going anywhere. We can't really change that much of our personnel because of our cap situation. We're kind of locked in outside of TANF.

And this guy's outperforming the environment. we've created here. Well, look at that change. I think realistically, like, so everyone knows scoring's up, right? And league average, say percentage is decreasing, obviously. Yeah, like not historically low, but I can't. In this era, I think, for sure. Yeah, but also, like, this is the first time, this will be, if it continues,

first time since, like, the early 80s that it's gone down in four straight years. Like, it's consistently going down now. But there's so much happening to, and that was a great point you made about this and discussion we're having now about expected goals and actual goals and how there's an imbalance there because I think one is players are more skilled than ever. Teams are prioritizing that skill throughout the lineup. You're seeing more teams use four and five forwards on their power play. They're pulling their goalies for the extra attacker earlier. They're not drafting or playing defensive defense. Right? Brayden

Holphee, I remember him telling me Carl Alsner is one of his favorite guys loved playing behind Carl Osner. Carl Osner can't play in the league anymore or doesn't get the opportunity. your first round pick. Yeah. And that's, and so that, that's a massive change right there. The fact that, you know, I mean, to me, that's Florida in a nutshell, right? Like, their defense is designed to get up ice and win the expected goal percentage, but they're not designed to box out and take away, you know, some of the chances in front. And that's what you have. That philosophical also sort of shift, even on like a team, but also player level from what we're talking about how teams are prioritizing quality over quantity more now, how they're looking because they realize a goalie can probably make a sense. save if he gets a clean look at it. They're trying to make a move. They're operating from behind the net. They're not, they're not what I used to call them the 99 percenters. Yeah. Right? And the coaches, the one, I'd hear this. I don't know get to single out any coaches, but I'd just roll my eyes. And I know there were goalie coaches that rolled their eyes because they understand this math too, but the, the old just get the puck on net and puck

and bodies on net. Like, like, especially like if you're not, if you really aren't taking away the eyes, like all you're doing. And Carolina was just famous for this under Bill Peters. their goalies would watch the other end. They'd be like, oh, we're doing is warming that guy up. Like, it's the 99%ers, the kind that even a beer leagueer stops. And all you do is make him feel good about his game early by throwing it at the net. Like pass off pads. Pass off pads works every once in a while.

But if that's your offensive philosophy now to throw it off a pad and crash the back door, you're way behind in terms of how to create offense. No, certainly. Certainly. I think it's changed quite a bit. But I also think, and, you know, when you talk about CSA's sort of like play types So it's breaking down where the shots are coming from. I'm so fascinated to see because, and speaking of, like, how the game's changing.

We've seen Soki and basketball, there was that shot chart that came out the other day where Kirk Goldsbury showed how much, like, the shot profiles changed over the past, how many years. It's like all the shots have shifted to certain regions on the court, right? It's around the perimeter right down low. There's no, the mid-range jumper. That was all I had was a mid-range jumper. But can you imagine if you...

It wouldn't even exist anymore. If the year before that changes, you sign a guy to a big ticket, six-year deal, and all of a sudden the league starts shifting, you're like, oh, crap. You signed debt lift Shrem from you. And then he was just like the top of the key. That was his shot, right? Like right at the T? And now all of a sudden nobody takes that show.

But look at what we're seeing even in the league now. Like I know it's kind of like a taboo subject or whatever. There's like whatever you want to call it, the Michigan, the lacrosse goal. But like guys are constantly trying it now. And I guarantee that we're going to see different shot types like that from wild areas of the ice because guys are doing all this stuff in practice. Deception, man. Like to me, the biggest change, um,

in offense besides teams finally figuring out that crashing that and crashing a banging maybe might not be the best way to mandate offense also a hell of a way to get your goalie killed in practice and we've seen a few of those so personal bugaboo um the deceptive releases and so to meet goalies we were ahead of the curve because we would go into the summers as goaltenders and work with goaltending specialists position specific specialists on our technical game. for 15, 20 years they've been doing this. And the players would be, they'd be working hard, but it was bigger, faster, stronger.

Skill development in the summer was non-existent. To me, players have finally cut up to goaltenders where they now go to Darryl Belfrey camps. They're working on all the skills that you're talking about. And it's not just the lacrosse goals, because I'm talking to goalies around the league. Like, these kids are learning, it's not just to hide the release.

not just to change the release point and the angle, and they got those are in their arsenal, they are to the point where guys like Darry who is a former goaltender, by the way, I'm not surprised that he's revolutionizing this. We tend to be the smart ones. I sit myself in the notable exception. But they know how, like they are integrating

in their skill development, how goaltenders move biomechanically and anticipation of a release so that they show one thing to get, you reacting in a certain way and then deliver another by changing the blade at the last second and they've got you going one way or opening a hole knowing exactly where that hole's going to be and putting it in there. And I know a lot of people are like, come on, it's not at that level, but I've seen plays. My favorite one is actually Dougie Hamilton, a big fan of,

sucked to see him go down the other day. But it was against Vancouver and it may have just been where I was sitting here in Vancouver. And it was Ryan Miller, who's a really good shot reader, but also a guy who relies a little more on anticipation versus sort of pure mechanics of keeping visual connection through a release like his anticipation skills are elite and Hamilton was coming through this shot and everything about the release said high blocker and Miller's already moving to his blocker side like full shift to his blocker side and it maybe was just the replay in where I was sitting but was just a perfect example. It was a couple of years ago as the puck is on his seat,

stick and coming off, he opens the toe of the blade at the last second. And instead of short side high, far side over the glove into a pretty much vacated net because Miller was always already moving to the blocker. And so it happens. We don't break it down or recognize it in this, in, you know, sort of in real time. It just looks like a shot. Snapshot. That's the level of detail bringing it down to frame by frame and seeing it as a level detailed goaltenders have been operating on in terms of improving our biomechanics, our efficiency of movement, our ability to stay on pucks. That's been going on for a long time. Now that shooters are doing the same thing, man, like the

add the skill level, the emphasis on offense, the lack of sort of crushing net front defensemen that trend away from that. And then that type of skill and that type of work ethic on deception and deceiving goaltenders, man, like, like it ain't getting easier. I'll tell you that much. But don't you think there's also, like, this is the last point I'll make in terms of like valuing goalies and paying them and then we can

move on and have a conversation. about some of those specific guys, but I was looking at it today. And, you know, we talked about sort of usage and how everyone knows the league is shifting to more 1A, 1B kind of tandem splits. We're losing the workhorse goalie. It really stuck out to me when I was preparing for this podcast. I'm going to read off the league leaders for you right now in terms of usage, and I'm going to give you this list.

Kerry Price currently is on pace for 66 starts, I'm sorry. That's the league lead. You've got Freddie Anderson 65, Hella Buck 64, Gibson 62, and that's it above. 60. And then you've got Bobrovsky to Vasilevsky and so on and so forth. Now my question to you, isn't there some sort of like a sunk cost fallacy or kind of like a human bias element where if you pay a guy like price or you pay a Bobrovsky, as the GM, you're telling your coach, listen, we got to make this work.

Like we're going to be sending this guy. We're going to get a bang for a buck. So you're going to be going naturally sagging for the rest of the league is acknowledging that we should probably play our guy 45 times. If you're paying carry price $10 million or whatever, you can't really afford to do that because you probably don't have enough money to get a good backup. But you also, he's not all of a sudden,

your highest paid player, the face of your franchise, you've got to get him out there as much as you can. And that's what we know, probably not the ideal way to run your business. So I think that also plays into it as well, where why are you paying a guy these premium dollars if you shouldn't be even playing them for more than half of the games? Yeah, that's, I mean, that's a good argument.

And certainly there's got to be an aspect of it. And the irony, of course, being that by the time guys get to the point where they earn those tickets, like Kerry, like Bob, they're older, too. Yeah, it's got a lot of mileage on. Yeah. So they've put a lot of miles on. They benefit from playing 45 games. Right. Or at least down into the 55 range, right?

Yeah, I mean, hey, it's a good argument. Like, you know, in Florida, you know, I will admonish myself here. I think we even talked about this. I was worried about them when we talked about teams that might lose goalies on waiver. and a team that should be looking. I didn't think Sam Montembo was maybe ready to be a guy. And I didn't think it was best served. If Bob was going to be rolled out as often as I expected to have this young kid

who was still waiver exempt, not have him playing a lot of games in the American League. And that part I got right. The part I got wrong, though, is I thought they needed more help. And Chris Dreger has been really good for them, which makes what you pay Bob look even more remarkably. Like the contrast there is stunning. like this, you know, a guy that even me, I've been on the ice with Chris Dreger. Like, I shouldn't be overlooking him or diminishing his ability to play in the NHL of anyone.

Right. And I did. Yeah. Like, I got that wrong. And they got it right. But that looks even worse because they had him in there. Yeah. And they went out and paid $10 million.

And they've got Spencer Knight, who I think is going to be one of these kids that that's the other trend we're not talking about. Merzleckins, these are young kids. This whole wait till they're 25, 26. like that's getting blown out of the water right now. Vasilefsky, Carter Hart, Merzleckins. Merzleckins.

He was a bit older though, no? He was in Europe for a few years, but even there, like, right, right, right. You know, like, there's, but he's 20, what, he's 23 or 24? 24, 24, so, like, you know, like, the idea that we're going to sign a kid in Spencer night, who I think is going to be, you know, on that Carter Hart type trajectory to the NHL,

and then Lock Bobin, like, basically put a ceiling on Spencer, for the next seven years, that was one that had me scratch in my head as well. So, yeah, I mean, listen, I'm not here. I still think Bob will get better as he adjust to that environment. I hope the environment gets better. But I'm not sitting here pretending it was a great deal for the Florida Panthers. Yeah, the Jeezer thing is funny because he's making,

technically he's making less the season on their cap than Scott Darley, Roberto Luongo, and Sergey Bobrowski. So for their fourth highest-paid goalies, might be their best one right now. Hey, and speaking of Luongo, we got to, like, not to turn this into props for all the goalie coaches in the world session, but... Right. His brother, Leo, is their goaltending coach in Springfield in the American Hockey League. And whether it's Chris Treger or Sam Montable when he first came up, an acknowledgement there that I think a lot of people, oh, Roberto Luongo's little brother's got a job in the organization and maybe dismissive of the work he's done. Yep.

I watched Chris Treger play, and that's a hell of the job. Leo Luongo, so shout out to him. Let's pivot to Lainer. I want to get into a big thing about him because he was recently featured in 31 thoughts where Elliot Freeman had some interesting quotes from him. And so it's nothing new that I think it kind of made some waves where he basically saying he's not going to take a discount. He wants to get paid for what he thinks he's worth as a goalie.

And I perfectly respect that. I think every player should try to maximize their earning power. But his comments were, I think, fascinating because I don't think he meant to do this, but it kind of tied into this first 30 minutes of discussion that you and I have had where he was talking more about, he's like, people don't realize that performance of goalies is so tied into their environment. And he cites like, what, did John Gibson all of a sudden get bad? And then he talks about how it's like, oh, signing goalies isn't any riskier than signing skaters because those contracts don't work out either. He was making all these points.

And I was like, these are great points, which I completely agree with. But they, also, those are the points I would be making if I was in the camp of not paying goalies. Yeah, you know, and listen, I don't know the context, and I'm going to be honest, I haven't, it's bookmarked. I haven't had a chance to read this week's 30-1 thoughts, which makes me the only journalist in the history of the world that doesn't read it in the first five minutes. It's been a busy couple days, so my apologies, but the original comments about him taking less, I think a lot of this has gotten, I think some of it's gotten a little lost.

The reason he bristled, I believe, at those original comments is the question was centered around taking less because this team had given him a chance. Yes, yeah. Because of the mental health stuff. And I think he rightfully bristles at the suggestion that he should make less because there's some uncertainty because he has a history with mental health and a history with addiction that he's overcome. So if that's what he's railing against, then 100%.

But you're right about the other parts of the point. Now, when it comes to guys being able to. to succeed in outperform environments. Which is why it's ironic because he's the one who has bucked that trend and so far this year. And this is why, like, if I'm paying for a guy this summer, if I'm breaking the rules I just laid down in terms of term, Robin Lainer might be that guy. Like, you know, I said he's number two in the league on these clear side analytic numbers behind Jacob Markstrom in terms of goals saved above average.

But more to the point, like Jacob's done it behind over the last two years behind the same team. Robin Lainer went from a defensively friendly environment to a wide open, and he's talked to me about, and just, we had him on the Ingold radio podcast last week. Fascinating discussion about how, yes, he's still continued, like the technical, it's not just that the environment was better last year, but there were some things in his game that he tightened up with Mitch Korn and a large part, it gets overlooked because Mitch is such a big presence in the goalie world. He's the director of goaltending with the islanders, but Piero Greco as well, the goaltending coach. Robin had a lot of great things to say about him and the work they did technically.

And he's still trying to get better technically. But in the same breath, he's had to throw a lot of it out the window. Right. Because it's not end zone play. It's not point to point. There's a lot more flow. There's a lot more rush chances. The opportunities offensively that he faces now in Chicago are a lot more dynamic.

And so he's throwing a little caution to the wind. He's come out of that butterfly box, as I call it, and played a more instinctive game. And in his own mind, calculate it. Like, not just, I'm going to not think about technique, but just like, hey, like, I need to be, I need to be a little more unpredictable. Yeah.

I need to make more, and I had to call him on NHL.com about this, sort of, you know, the Craig Anderson model, Hennard Glandquist does a lot of this. And there's a guy who's outperformed his environment for a freaking decade, like Hall of Fame, slam dunk, Kendrick Lundquist, greatest of all time conversation. Half butterfly saves where you only drop one knee and you keep that glove side up.

We've seen later make more of those. Pat stacks. Or as we call them at Engel, butter stacks because you slide across in a butterfly and then you go padstack and windmill. He's made both. He's made three different varieties of padstacks this year. He has shown that he can play it either way.

Good in a good defensive environment. So all those questions, what's halak going to be like? Right. You know, what's who dough and good? Lainer is like. Lainer's done it both ways. So on that list of guys, if there's one guy where I'm like, well, I can,

I can throw anything in front of him. And he's a big dude. So he's got the size covered. He's a good skater for his set. Like there's just a lot there outside of shootouts. And he's coming around on those too. Yeah. I kind of joke about that only because he made fun of himself on it.

Like that there's a guy that, yeah, I, I think he can do it anyway. And, you know, there's, There's less certainty about that with a lot of the other names on there. I think they could, but I'm not sure. Lainer's proven over the last two years. It doesn't matter what you put in front of him, he can make the adjustment. Yeah, the discrepancy in both quantity and quality of Loxi's face this year, I mean, I think there's no like real polar opposite, more, a bigger discrepancy

between going from the Barry Trots, Mitch Corrin's system to whatever is going on in Jeremy calling right now in Chicago. And he's proven that he can, I mean, his numbers are virtually identical. I think, in fact, like he's on pace to start, play the same number of games, 46, like, his say percentage is a few points down, but if you adjust it for the looks, it's identical almost. He's top five in like every category. It's amazing.

And I wonder if, you know, he should be in the Vesna conversation. Like the raw numbers 922 might not get him there because people, whatever. He's top five when you adjust it for, for where the looks are coming from. He should be in the Vesna conversation. And the goals, I said, the only guy, the only guy in double digits, along with Jacob Markham in terms of goals saved above average when you, when you account for all the shot quality, courtesy of clear sight analytic. Yeah, and I think there was certainly around the league quite a bit of uncertainty or sort of skepticism at his numbers last year because of that where he was coming from.

And so now that he's proved that I'm very curious to see what his market's going to look like and whether, I mean, where Chicago goes with this because they have both him and Corey Crawford as impending UFAs right now. And I'm not sure we rarely see big name goalies, you know, shift and become a starter for a playoff team at this point of the season. but if I was a team that was looking for a goalie and trying to win right now, like he'd be the number one that's available. Like we're hearing about Georgia and it's entirely different scenario as an RFA and a younger goalie that's a bit more unproven. But man, like if you could, I don't know who would be, maybe the Oilers, like if the Mike Smith would the rails go off that, like Vegas, if Flurry keeps struggling,

I'm not sure. But like if you're a fringe playoff team and you could add Robin Leonard who might be like a top three goalie in the world right now. And a guy who, because of the Crawford presence, because of the job, with Grice last year. Doesn't have a ton of recent mileage. You're not getting them worn out. He's 28.

He's only 28. So, out of that crop, like Hope he's 30. Markstrom's, I think a lot of people forget. Markstrom's 30 as well. So you're not getting him at 26, 28. Lainer's 28. And, you know, I'm with you.

I think there might be an adjustment period. He is a bit of a thinker, but like he talked about, like consciously not thinking too much of technique. So I think trade deadline goaltenders, Ryan Miller became sort of the poster boy for why you don't do it. But he checked all the negative boxes that year, never been traded.

The system was totally different. Like there are a lot of sort of things you can look at and say, you know, there's sort of a checklist of, is this totally new to him? Is this totally new to him? Is this totally new to him? And if they are, like, there's going to be an adjustment period. And maybe not enough time between trade deadline and the end of the season to really get comfortable.

That was Miller's case. Lainer, going from the defensive environment in New York to what he's got in Chicago, I just kind of feel like it would be naive to say he could play anywhere. Just that blanket and open-ended a statement. But you kind of feel like compared to the other guys, he'd certainly be the most flexible and take the least time to adjust. Okay, well, let's talk about Hopi now. Amos is actually taking us this long to get into it

because I think that is such an interesting conversation, both thinking ahead and adding him into this class of goalies that will be available this summer, I think, based on his play, based on San Francisco. Samsonov's play based on Washington's financial cap situation. They're likely going to walk regardless of what happened just because that's the prudent move and maybe the only possible move based on what he's going to get paid by someone else. But man, we had this conversation at the start of the year and we were kind of like put a pin in it.

Let's see how this year goes. But I think the play of him compared to Samsonov and the numbers we were looking at before the show, neither guy certainly had the benefit of the doubt in terms of the system in front of them. Well, Brayden, hopefully, we said it, the worst defensive environment in the entire NCHIntyre. Samsonoff is one percent better. The difference would be Brayden also facing more of it. He's almost a full point under.

He's 0.72 percent below expected. And Samsonoff, as I just kind of changed the filters here, is, you know, he's one of the best things right there with, like, Rimer. He's up there in terms of. I'm going to blame your internet connection on this one. It's a little slow. But yeah, he's like, he's outperforming. Okay, well, let me give you more than 4%.

But here's the problem. If this was 33 game sample size, I'd be like, all right, well, I'm willing to overlook it. This is like three straight years now if his number is going in the day. Well, and I honestly think, too, like, let's see what happens in the playoffs. Yeah. Because he's one playoff run away from everybody wanting him re-signed, right? Like, he has, he has the capability. And there's the part, too, that I wonder about.

And I don't have any proof on this one besides just pointing to the end. and Oilers for all those years. But, you know, I think a lot of people, I don't know, do you think people would be surprised to know that Braden's got the toughest defensive environment? I think they would, yeah. Yeah, like, I think people assume, like we know that Washington scores and they're a little more wide.

Well, they're a good team who wins a lot of games, and I think people still from like the, there's like that remnants of the Barry Trot system. So people still think of that. But they haven't been. They really have been. And I wonder, and this is where Samsonoff is in a better place, maybe.

I'm not saying absolutely because this is like, you know, there may be statistics that are just going to, absolutely kick me in the nuts on this one and show the world how much of an idiot I truly am. But I've always believed a little bit that tough defensive environments become cumulative. Right. The negative effect becomes cumulative. In other words, if I can't try, if that scene pass is supposed to be taken away by this guy, and that's the system, and it gets through one or two, and I cheat to it, that's on me. It gets through seven, eight, nine times in a row, damn rights I'm going to cheat to it because I can no longer trust that guy

to get there. And as soon as I cheat in this league, if the other guy on the other end of that past got time and space and he sees me, that's where we're at. Like you lean, you're done. Short side shelf and those are ones that looks, it's funny because the back door one that gets through or the one you might, you know, they might say, oh, it wasn't his fault. The short side one because you cheated to the back door one is the one that's stunk, right? So I do to a certain extent believe it's cumulative, but let's be honest. Maybe this is just me trying to give the benefit of the doubt to a guy who, whose game I've liked, who I've worked with, I've been on the ice with him in the summers and who I like personally. So like there's, there may be some biases

and I want to give that benefit of the doubt. But Edmonton to me is that, you know, like how many guys went through there and they were just horse crap defensively and it wore them out. And all of a sudden they went on a better team. It's like, hey, we got a goal tender here, right? So I think there might be some of that there. I'd be curious to see, I'd be really curious to see what he'd be like in a different environment. I think we'll see it next year. We might see it in the playoffs because, like, let's not forget the year they won the cup. Yeah. Like he was out and grew up and got on that role.

But in that transition period, they had to come to Jesus meeting and moment with Barry Trots where it's like, guys, we're not going to win like this. Yeah. We have to buckle down and bear down defensively. And I don't have the numbers from that year, but there was a period there and talking to people on the team and their numbers backed this up where they did tighten up defensively and Brayton got on that run. So I'm, I'm curious to see what they do in the playoffs, because that's the other question, all these teams that were applauding for expected goal percentages

and teams like Florida that are winning this way. Can they do it? Will this translate when all of a sudden the game changes like Vancouver? Everyone's like, hey, hey, they could get on a run if they get in. If they just get in, I'm like, hey, they're relying on power play percentage. And there ain't no power plays in the playoffs. Okay, so here's, okay, I'm going to, from two donors or cycle, one. Okay, how long we've been out of this first off? 45 minutes. Okay, can you look over your shoulder and see if my car has been towed yet?

No, it's still there. Okay, we're good. We're good. Okay, I'll say this. I actually have a soft spot in my heart for Braid and Hopi. I think he's been an awesome goalie there. Five or six year run he had, I think he was one of the top two or three goalies in the world. His playoff resume is unassailable, even beyond the Stanley Cup, even before that,

he was arguably the best playoff goal ever. Yeah, up there with two karas. Three straight years now where his numbers have been, there's a red flag, certainly. System may be involved. I guess the question for, me is with that same system in place, Ilya Samsonov's clearly been the superior goalie. The dynamics of how this is going to play in that locker room

and how this is going to work, not for the future, because I think the caps just won't be able to afford him, even if they wanted to bring him back, I just think he's going to go somewhere else. Well, don't forget that they've got Phoenix Copley and the minors, too, and I haven't looked at him in. I can't remember if he's one of these guys that's UFA or RFA.

I think this season. I gave him a couple years as, like, hoping that he's going to be taken. And for all the success that Samsonoff, having right now was Samsonoff. Yeah. Copley had good numbers last year for them. Well, and Samsonoff didn't earn the, like this, the only reason he started the season in Washington was because Copley's cap, they couldn't afford Copley's cap hit.

He actually outplayed him. But he has the pedigree, right? He has the pedigree and there's been a refinement there technically. I remember you talked about his adjustment to North America, right? Oh, last year was a disaster. I couldn't, I did video for a consultant that went in there and worked with him in Hershey. And I couldn't believe what I was watching.

in terms of the looseness of his technical game. And it's come a long way. Credit to Alex Westland in Hershey and Scott Murray in Washington. It's come a long way. And so clearly there's a goaltender there because there's a skill set on top of that. But to me, to me, your consistency as a goaltender quite often is tied to technique, but you have to have more than technique to be more.

He had the more always, but he needed the foundation to be more consistent. And I'd be honest with you, when I saw him halfway through last year on video and cut the video for this consultant, I was like, ooh, this is a big time project. So there's two,

the coaches get credit for turning it around that quickly, even if he wasn't the best guy in the preseason, he's clearly being great since it started. But also the athlete deserves credit. Braden Holpey, the thing that blew me away, the first time I was on the ice with him for three days up in Colonna,

his ability to control his body and make conscious changes, like just to like absolutely integrate it and totally change. everything at the, it was the best I've ever seen. It would appear, without having talked to Scott Murray this year, would appear that Ilya's got a little bit of that because it's not perfect yet, but the adjustments he's made technically and the improvements, I mean, they're showing themselves in the

numbers. So they've got a goalie there and you're right, maybe. But if you did a blind resume right now, you strip the names, you strip what they've meant their franchise or playoff success. Just this year's player. You'd be playing. Samson would be their number one, right? You would assume, yeah, yeah, yeah.

But again, part of, you know, there's a lot of things that go into being a number one. Yeah. There's the pressure. There's also the fact that all these things that we just talked about, Samsonoff working, if he's the workhorse number one or even the three out of four number one, the time to work on those things all disappear because now you're managing your fatigue, you're managing your rest, you're managing your body, you're not managing your game. It's one of the biggest adjustments goalies go through.

Excuse me, going to be a number one is all of a sudden you lose that time with the goalie coach to make sure you stay on top of your details. we saw here with Markstrom, right? He would be on a role, but you could see the game start to drop off. And all of a sudden they'd give, there's a point. Nilsen would get a start. He hadn't won in a month. They'd give him a start, even though they needed to win,

because they could see diminishing returns in Jacob Markstrom's game. That's a step that I'llia Samsonoff probably still has to take. And again, you know, the expected say percentage is about a point higher compared to Holby, which, you know, you wonder if that's just sample size or do these guys see the kid in net and go, we got to be a little tighter for him. I think it's probably just sample size. I mean, I would think so too. It's like under 20 games, probably just.

Maybe just a couple games here. And it's just one point, right? The difference between a 9, 10, and a 900 from an expected standpoint. But that's, you know, hey, the difference between a 910 and a 900 and say percentage, you know, that's the expected difference between those two.

That's the difference between NHL and AHL for a lot of guys. Yeah. Well, I'll just be, I'll be fascinated to see, I mean, both this summer in terms of what the market's like for Holtby, whether, like, how much things have changed, if someone pays them based on pedigree as opposed to recent performance,

how the caps approach this come the playoffs. It'll be fascinating. Let's quickly rattle through a couple subjects here in the final 10 minutes before we get out of here. The Rangers goalies. Yeah. So let's get into the Georgia of sweepstakes because it feels like as we approach in this next month

towards the deadline, it's going to be one of the crappiest trade deadlines of all the time, I think, in terms of the names that are available. It's like, oh, my God, Tyler, Tifoli, you could swing the race. Yeah. But it seems like Georgia, and I don't know how much of this is just like good agent work

and getting the name out there. But it seems like the market and like is going to be very hot for them. And the price is like escalating by the day, it seems like. Yeah. And it's interesting too because like so I guess my question would be why would you pay that? Why are you going to like the question? And it's not the question for me to answer. Each team that's that's looking at him would have to answer this.

Like is is Georgiev? He's cost controlled. He's young. He's shown upside of being a really solid. Probably like he's going to fit into that ideal 1B mode. maybe he's more than that, a guy that can give you starter-type minutes over short periods. I'm not sure he's proven anything beyond that in terms of can I be a number one guy. But he's outperformed his environment for three years now.

Yeah. At times competed with Henrik Lindquist, who by the way is still top 10 in the NHL in terms of outperforming his environment. Like the, like the Henrik Lindquist is done narrative because he's got a 9-10 just ignores that environment way too much. Like he has, he's, he ain't going to give you the games he used to, but he's still capable of a really high level of play. Certainly. We just all assume he's going to stay in New York for the next year and the last year the contract next year, so they've got to move.

Yeah. Georgie, right? So Georgie's outperformed his environment. He's a good, I like, that we talked to earlier about elements of the game and the way it's changed. Lateral speed absolutely checks that box. Patience on his skates checks that box. It kind of reminds me of UC Soros, who incidentally is struggling big time this year,

but two inches taller. and he's playing behind a crappy defensive environment in New York too, and he's having success. So if you're a team acquiring him, I guess you have to figure, like, is the cost of acquiring him and getting him cost controlled and young, does that outweigh not paying anything

and going and grabbing a hoodobin, a halak or a grice on the open market? Because to me, those are, you know, maybe Hudobin, especially from a size perspective, of a little smaller at 5-11. Those might be here. Those are those fair comparables. I don't know. I'd put Halak in the same conversation

because I think his style really fits Boston. But so that's the question. It depends on the team, right? What's the value? Like if you're the Maple Leafs and you know he's cost control and you can keep that price down, that increases the value of what you're willing to give up, I would imagine, because cap becomes an issue for a year.

Especially since Freddie Anderson only has one year left or whatever. Right. You're then in Georgia is. who you think he is, he could potentially take over that roll down the run. And even if it's not a, you know, even if it's more in the one, like not, you know, does it matter if he doesn't become a 60 games workhorse because we're going away from that anyways. Yeah.

And again, cheaper. So yeah, no, I, to me, that's the, I don't have the answers to those questions, but those are the questions you have to ask if you're a team looking at, at buying in on him. To me, it's not so much his upside and his potential. To me, it's, what am I willing to pay for that when I, compared to what I could get for just signing a UFA like Grice, like Houdobin? I mean, who opens nine, what's he leading the league and save percentage? Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Two and a half million one B. Like I got to think a lot of teams are going to like that. But yeah, I'd be scared of paying for that though. But here's what I'll say about Georgia. And it's really, I think the Rangers are doing a smart job by getting his name out there

now and not waiting until the deadline because, listen, Lunkwis has one more year left at 8.5 cap hit. But I think it's only like 4.5 in real dollars. but the problem is he's not going to, like he wants to be there, right? He's a career range. And he's earned that. He's freaking earned it and then some, yes. Both in terms of what he's meant that, Brian does,

but also like quite literally with his contract, he got that no move clause, probably took less money to get it. So he has earned that. That's one of my biggest, when fans are like, wow, on this player wave,

it's like maybe he likes living there and he got that in his contract for a reason. He's the king in New York. Like he built everything around being a part of that, including, like you said, probably some give back on the contract to get it. But if you're the Rangers, though, like, it's funny because Chistorkin's the opposite of Samsonov sort of where in his 25 or whatever games, the H.L., like, he's dominated.

And so he's like, you need to carve out some room for him right now. But at the same time, if Lundkowitz's going to be there, and it's like, yeah, it's like, it's like they almost missed the window by a year. Yeah. Right. Like if Lundkwist, if this was the final year in his contract, you just ride it out. You just ride it out and you keep, and you go straight to a Schistorkin. Yeah.

Because he got for the most part of a young team anyway. Anyways, right? Like, obviously they got Panarin and a few older parts, but, you know, they're a team that I would think would trend towards the trend of tandem. So the problem is Lundquist has the extra year. And by all indications, he wants to stay there. I mean, it's interesting to me that they're going this three goalie rotation. There's a little part of me that, you know, I think they have given him the respect he's earned and deserved. Like I said, one of the all-time grades.

Yeah. But at the same time, he's in the process of, like, he's competing with Mark Andre, Flurry for their spot, you know, amongst that they're chasing down the top three and wins. Yep. Um, like I said. It's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's like, it's good. And that's, it's like, it's why it drives me nuts. And people say, oh, Henrik Glenquist is too old. He's got a nine, 10. This is the end. I'm like, oh, my God, look at the adjusted numbers people. Up until they started this rotation, he was like top five. He was the fifth guy on the CSA list on December 31st because they published that sort of top five, right? He's slipped a little bit here just because the other guys have passed him on the. cumulative list, but goals saved above average on CSA, he was fifth when the calendar turned until they went to this rotation. And now they've paid him the respect of not being the one that

goes in the press box because they say they value his presence in the room and on the bench. So out of this show him on the bench without that helmet looking all sexy with that hair. Yeah. And so, I mean, my wife's happy for it too, right? And a couple of my teammates on my team's wives are happy for it too, right? So, but at the same time, so they've done that right in terms of not putting him up in the press box. But at the same time, this guy's performing on a top 10 level still. He's your franchise icon,

and he's got a chance to move up an all-time list, and he's sharing the job. He's getting one out of it, not even one out of every three starts. They gave Georgie back-to-backs recently against the Islanders. A team he does dominate it. Do you wonder a little bit if they're trying to grease this kids? Like, trying to, hey, we didn't want to push you out. But I mean, no, they've asked.

Yeah. I know they've asked, right? And he's just politely said, no, he wants to be a part of this. And maybe, you know, as they get competitive, because there's, there's aspects to like about this team. Like, oh, my God, he's so good. That are encouraging. And, you know, but the longer he's around to see signs, you know, of light at the end of the tunnel, because he's been through a pretty dark tunnel these last couple of years, maybe he wants to be a part of it.

And to me, what gets the frustrating part to me, however this works out, maybe he does finish career somewhere else, but the frustrating part to me is the amount of people that seem to be writing him off at this point because that is absolutely not warranted. You put him on a good team right now and I could see a playoff run, absolutely. As long as, you know, we talk about those boxes of adjustments, they're bigger for him because he's been where he has been for as long as he has and understands the system and the personnel as long as he has, as as crappy as it's been defensively. There's a comfort level there. So, you know, there would be a bigger adjustment for him, but when you watch him play, like, I still think he's capable.

And maybe I'm fan-boying a little bit because I'm a huge fan. And he's been good to us as a person over the years at Ingole, a guy who's answered emails in the past, even in the off-season or even during the season. So, you know, maybe maybe that's why I'm such a fanboy. But the numbers are backing it up for me. Like, he's still performing at a high-end level. Yeah, it just feels like, just because he's like, he's been around for so long and where the Rangers are in terms of their timeline as a franchise.

Like, it feels like, I think I don't want to speak for their fans, I'm sure they're like more excited these days to see a Shistorkan start than they are a Lankwistar, right? It's, I guess it's natural, but it's, you're right. The future. It's still so good. It's when you get to that stage, you're looking for the future. Oh, well, that has been funny. I don't know what Shisterkin has, like, three starts, I think.

So far, it's like in his debut, like, literally two minutes and it's like Nathan McKinnon Breakway. And then he has like second star. It's like, well, the Rangers. Second game is like 50 shots against. And he's done well in them, but it's like, this is going to be. Yeah. Filthiest guy in the league coming in one-on-one, little dangle between the legs.

Welcome to the Rangers kid. It's good. Yeah. Well, yeah. He's just lucky it wasn't a two-on-no, to be honest, the way they defend. Quick, quick, Beznor update. Oh, you're talking to Markstrom for, I get there. Yeah, he's like, honestly, like, like, I'm looking at him and I'm like, I don't understand.

But, but I, you know, NHL.com did their halfway through the season list where the, staff members, I got to emphasize staff members, and not letting myself off the hook here. I don't get a vote. So Markstrom didn't get a single top five vote a month. any NHL.com staff member. I just saw the PH Professional Hockey Artists Association list for their mid-season voting. I don't know how many votes he did get in their top five.

What was our top three? But he didn't finish in the top three. I think it was Halebuck. Was Lainer in there? You're going to have to Google this while I talk my way through this. No, yeah, you know what? It was, I don't know the order, but it was Bishop Hellebuck.

Because I saw individuals lists and then the totalist, and so I'm having trouble differentiating who had what, but I know the final three were Bishop, Hellebuck, and Darcy Kemper. So, and Darcy Kemper won on the NHL.com list, and this is no disrespect to Darcy Kemper, but when we talk about environments... Well, we know what's happening here. People are just opening up NHL.com,

scrolling by say a percentage and picking, like, the top of the list. Yeah, and let's be perfectly honest. Yeah, it's Hellebuck and Bishop Kemper, one, two, three. But let's be honest, did the NHL general managers do much different? Probably not. I mean, yeah, they do. They look at wins. Right.

You're right. Different categories, same website. Yeah, that's true. All right, I think that's, is there any other situations you wanted to get to? I mean, we're at the hour mark here. I think, you know, we could put a pin. People have had enough of me. James Reimer is a guy who there's, I mean, really quickly.

Yeah. What's interesting about that one is not just from the Florida thing. The numbers were so terrible last year. They basically paid to get rid of him by buying out Darling's contract. And now he's having all this success. Which I think most people saw coming, right? Hurricanes. But what's interesting to me is Carolina is a team that, again,

you talk about teams that just built a great defense and we'll plug in whoever we want behind, you know, they got to the Eastern Conference final with a recalini and Razak. Yeah, waiver wire claim in a reclamation project. But then they re-up the reclamation project. And what's interesting to me is when you look at the adjusted numbers on clear sight on the goal's safe side, the reclamation project, you know, they let their goalie coach walk in Mike B, bales. Yep. And Marazik is bottom five in the NHL in terms of his performance versus expected goals saved above average on the clear sight list. Yep. And Reimer's near the top. And I'm all four

job shares and everything, but they are still treating that like the guy at the bottom in the league is the number one and Reimer's getting the second end of the back to backs and less starts. It's become more balanced than the last little while. But to me, it's been very interesting for a team that really seems to get how you win in terms of building a good defensive environment and not overpaying for goal tending seems and I got to think it's probably at the coaching level and there's probably a style element to this and also history Marazik had a hell of the season last year and deserved some benefit of the doubt so I don't want to be ignorant of that but they're kind of teetering towards opposite ends of the statistical spectrum and yet the guy at the bottom is getting more so that's

one I'm going to keep an eye on I do think from a aesthetic for a get analytics because because they say it should be Rimer. From an aesthetic standpoint, and this is where coaching staffs make decisions often, there are goals that Rimer gives up that make you to kind of, they always too deep or whatever. They'll just kind of, he'll look a little blockish at times and people deflate. And I said, God, I saw somebody like, we need to trade both our goalies and get a, like, hey, Lundquist and with Carolina would be great.

But the interesting thing is the people that write about this stuff, Rimer's the one they're thrown overboard, not Marasic. Peter makes saves with aggression and explosiveness that make you go, wow. But the reality is he puts himself in a position where he has to make those saves spectacularly, whereas Rimer makes the boring saves easy, and then when we gives one up, it looks less dynamic. The eye test versus the analytics on that one, Mrazik seems to be getting the benefit of the doubt based on the eye test, and the numbers say it should be Rimer. So that's when I'll watch closely over the final 30 games,

especially if those numbers continue to stretch in opposite directions. Yeah, Rimer number one goalie on evolving Wilde's goals save above expected. Pretty good. All right, let's get out of here, Kevin, plug some stuff. Where can people check out of your work, and what are you up to these days? Obviously, NHL.com. We have the weekly goaltending column. I think we're like five, six years in.

Massive shout out to my boss, Sean Rourke, for helping me come up with new ideas because there aren't many that we haven't touched over the last five years and for giving me the platform. It's been awesome. Looking forward to doing another playoff project with them where we'll break down all the playoff starters. But also, if you found any of this stuff fascinating,

make sure you check out Ingoal magazine. That's Ingolemag.com. We have a new product out, a new, we're going on the subscription trend. It's called Ingoal premium. And I think if you're not a goalie, maybe it's not for you, but if you're a goalie, young goalie,

goalie parent, goalie coach, we've got things in there that'll make you better. I've got drills from NHL goalie, goleys on the ice with breakdowns from the coaches and the goalie themselves, what they're looking for in drills. And the coolest thing that we've done is a segment called Pro Reeds, and that's subscriber only. But I basically sit down and do almost like a goalie coach would with an NHL goalie. We go over saves.

And they walk us through their reads. And I'm thinking about making one public here just to give people a taste of what the whole thing looks like. And I'm definitely going to lead with the Freddie Anderson one, because there was a save he made against the blues earlier this year. I'm telling you, Dimitri, like I thought I understood goal-tending. Not because I'm smart,

but because I've talked to these guys for so long and tried to pick their brains and just been a pain in the ass. Every guy comes through town. It's like, I think guys might have clauses about not getting traded to the Pacific Division because they don't want to deal with me in Vancouver. Like, I am just asking all these questions.

I'm trying to learn as much as I can. But then sitting down and having them walk me through their reads and what they see in real time, time as the play is coming. And they're not, they're not bullshitting me looking back on it later and saying, oh, I can see this guy and I can see that guy because they're, they're like, I've got this leg dropped and I'm loaded on this leg because I can see this guy here. Or I've only dropped it halfway because there's a middle net drive.

And I know I can't make a big push. I have to make sure it gets past that middle net drive to the far side guy before I come on. Like the complexity, not just what hand a guy, every guy on the ice, right-handed, left-handed. but usually knows who it is, how they shoot, how they're holding their hands as they load up for a one-timer and how that's going to dictate where the puck's going. It's been fascinating, and the goaltender's willingness to share,

Freddie Anderson came into town, we pulled up a chair outside the Leafs locker room after the rest of the team had left, a little folding chair and a folding table, a couple of video cameras in my laptop, and for 15 minutes he broke down plays. And so I think that's something that Ingle has that nobody else does. And I think young goalies,

who are very good technically, who we always hear 12 and through, I have NHL goalies that will say, I go to camp in the summer, and these kids move better than I do. No kidding. And I've been hearing this since the mid-2000s. 12-year-olds move,

but they can't stop the puck when the game starts. I think understanding the way goalies read and see the game, and that's what this is designed to do, will help more of those young goalies get better. So it's been a fun project for me, and it's been a project that I think sets us apart. Nobody else has this. Well, you know what?

The athletic ran that player poll recently, and obviously, you know, players get asked what do you think about analytics and all of them are like oh it's stupid it's not for me blah blah i don't even know what they're about i would think that the goalie position is the one where there's the most strides to be made at least if you can communicate it well based purely on what you're saying about player tendencies knowing where teams are looking to attack from where individual shooters are looking to target on the net and you're evaluating your performance where you struggle where like because i think the goalie coach becomes the filter for sure but like you know

for example, um, I know, uh, Freddie Anderson two years ago targeted low high play and post integration, um, and did a lot of work on it and got better at it.

And a big part of that was the numbers showed that that was an area where he'd given up more goals, not just than expected, but you know, out of his season, that's where a lot of them came from. And so if you're a goalie coach, you're saying, geez,

we're giving up these chances. Also, you're not performing well. Let's take a look. Now let's rewind it. I'm not going to tell you all. all this necessarily, but I'm going to rewind it and see if there's anything in your play, we can improve. Because there's a reason for it.

You're not just like, hey, here's the newest fad postplay, reverse VH, you know, active glove, this or that. So I'm going to teach it to you. It's like, no, this is an area where we can measure you need to get. And this is actually what got Valik had into this. Like he used to like to go back and say, I just don't want to go to goalie camp and like do tee pushes and butterfly slides. I want to know what my weakness is as a kid he was doing this.

So that when I go into camp, I can target. and drill down on things that will help me solve this problem in my game. And you're right. They may not want to see all these analytics, but with the help of a goalie coach to filter through them and target how to improve, they're absolutely taking advantage of it. I think they appreciate this more than others.

I don't think they'll appreciate the fact that ClearSight says shots are significantly overcounted by the NHL, and Ross A percentage actually is probably lower than the NHL credits it across the board. Yeah. But goalies have always known. and they've always talked to me about how stats can't, you know, like environment can't be measured. Yeah, there's nothing online, you know,

there's nothing that really measures. Location's not enough. There's so many different things that go into it. I think they appreciate the added context here. But interestingly enough, Robin Lainer in our conversation, just a week ago on the Ingold Radio podcast, the one he looks at, quality starts. NHL.com's added one, but they used, unfortunately,

900 as the cutoff versus, I think the other ones are, it's like a bubbly average or something. Yeah, 9-10 or maybe it used to be 9-10 and he used 9-10. Right. And to him the most important thing, because for goaltenders, consistency. Yeah. Right. Roberto Luongo, one of the most consistent guys over his entire crew up until that last year.

Consistency matters for goal-tenders. And for Lainer, that's the number he's looking at, not wins, not say percentage. Because he knows that the environment's different. He knows it needs to be adjusted. But what he really cares about is, am I given my team, am I consistently above that threshold of 9-10 and he pays attention to that one. So I thought that was fascinating to hear. Robin Leonard, noted analytics nerd.

Kevin, this was a blast. I know you're super busy in the spring when you're doing all your playoff previews, but I'm going to bug you to get you back on the show and we're going to deep dive all the 16 goalies. I may be severely deep. Sleep deprived if we do it before the season. And if the Canucks make the playoffs,

I'm pretty much screwed. But we'll make it work. We just got to do something about the parking here. All right, man. Take it easy. Philipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey p-diocast.