The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 36: It's Time To Bolt

Episode Date: December 15, 2015

Jonathan Willis takes some time from his frenetic writing schedule to discuss Taylor Hall's ascension towards becoming one of the league's most dominant wingers, and what Edmonton's most optimal forward deployment will look like once they're fully healthy up front. We also look into how the blame for the struggles in Pittsburgh this season should be divvied up, and the precarious position the Lightning they find themselves in with Steven Stamkos' impending free agency. Every episode of this podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, and can also be streamed from our website. Make sure to not only subscribe so that you don’t miss out on any new shows as they're released, but also take a minute to leave us a glowing review. If you've been enjoying the work we've been doing please also consider chipping in to help support the show (www.hockeypdocast.com/donate). There are a handful of housekeeping costs associated with producing the show that need to be covered, and every little bit helps. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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And joining me on this episode of the show is a special guest. It's a guy who I think we're pretty blessed is taking some time to talk to us because I feel like otherwise he'd just be writing for the full 24 hours of the day. And that's Jonathan, how's it going, man? Going good, thanks. I'm excited to have you on because we talked a little bit off the air and there's various topics we want to get into, and we will in a second. But first let's talk a little about the Oilers because I know that you cover.

them very closely. And I know that we spent a lot of time on this show in past episodes, especially with all the R&H stuff discussing them. So we won't, you know, go over the same points over and over again. But I did want to talk a little bit about Taylor Hall because this year he's putting together is just truly remarkable. And I don't know, I'll just leave the floor to you. Like, how is it watching this guy on a daily basis? It's fun. He's in a very tough year last season, but he's sort of back to where he was. was the two years before that. He's probably actually even a little bit better. He's a really remarkable talent, and he doesn't get enough credit because Edmonton's been so bad over the

years, and he's been so closely associated with that, sort of gild by association sort of thing. And he's a wonderful talent, and I'm hopeful that this is the year that he'll be recognized a little bit more around the league as the player that he is, as a guy who really drives a results. Yeah, I mean, there's any way you slice it, he's just been remarkably dominant this year. I mean, he's one point away from leading the league in five on five points. He's second in rate stats in that regard. He's fourth in shots per 60, like just watching him from the eye test. Like, there's very few guys in the league. Maybe there's no one like him really that can kind of create offense out of nothing from all the way back in his own defensive zone where he just retrieves the puck and has a one-man bow rush the other way

where he creates something for either himself or his teammates. And it's been really fun to watch. I'm kind of curious, do you think that there's, I don't know, like what do you think about the partnership between him and Leon Dreisaito? Because obviously it's been wildly successful so far. Now you have to kind of factor in the fact that there hasn't been too big of a sample size there and the percentages are inflated a little bit and that can make guys look better than they actually are. But do you think that the partnership between him and Dreysidal is something that the oiler should stick

with moving forward, or do you think at some point we're going to see him back with RNH because those two guys also had quite a bit of success together as well? Yeah, I'm glad you pointed out that he was so good with Newton Hopkins as well. Sort of necessity, the McDavid injury forced him

to move Newton Hopkins off that line. But the halt was good from the word go. And, you know, he hasn't always been blessed with fantastic climate. I mean, Newton Hopkins is obviously pretty good. Dryside was obviously pretty good. But, you know, Drysidal had a terrible year last year,

and I don't think anybody expected him to have the kind of season he's having. I mean, it's not even reasonable to think that he would have this season after the disaster that was last year. And then he's also managed, you know, those two together have managed to resuscitate the career of Teddy Purcell who looked like he was playing his way out of the league last season. So it's not like he's, you know, got Tyler Sagan up the middle of them. Right. And I think they could go one of two ways. because the one nice thing, if you keep Drysidal at center,

it allows you to theoretically at least play three scoring lines. Connerick David was playing with Benoit Pouliot and Neil Yakov before that line worked well, and that still gives you Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Jordan Everleigh as the nucleus of a third scoring line, and that just gives you tremendous depth. But the other way they could go is they could do what they did with Drysidal when he first came back from the miners,

which was play him at right wing and have Nugent Hopkins down to the... middle. And that gives you sort of that super-powered top line. And then, I don't know what you do with the second line. Teddy Purcell might be a guy who goes at the deadlines. Maybe it's something like McDavid, Everleigh, and Poolyat. But they have a lot of options either way. Well, I mean, Yakupal will be back eventually, too, right? Yeah. And he's another guy who's in kind of a curious situation because he's performed well with McDavid. But I think everyone, I think everyone's going to perform well with McDavid. Well, and that's the thing.

But it's funny, actually, the one guy that Hall hasn't performed well with was Newton Hopkins. They weren't together very long during the season, but they were together for all the preseason. The hope was that those two would be line mates, and it just didn't work out. Right. Yeah, well, if there's one thing people take away from this show, it's go watch Taylor Hall if he's on TV or on Game Center Live, because he's quite a treat to watch. And I wanted to mention that it's a good.

good segue because we're right about to talk about the penguins and it would be remarkable to see what he'd be capable of if he had like at least two or three defensemen who could consistently kind of get him to puck on the rush while he has a full head of steam without having to kind of tire himself out and do all of the work himself and that is a good segue to the penguins because uh over the weekend mike johnston was relieved of his duties and whenever a team that has that many expectations and that much star power kind of looks as feeble and pedestrian as they have this season, someone's going to pay, and that's generally the coach. I know you wrote about this and you have some strong feelings about it.

So I don't know, like, what do you think about both the idea to fire Mike Johnston and just like the issues the Penguins have had this year as a whole? Well, I think you set it up for me really nicely. They're talking about defensemen because you look at their defense setup. It is, it's atrocious. I mean, Ian Cole was a top-paring defenseman for most of the year. They had Rob Scuderi do games in the top-paring. Like you look at who Chris Lattang plays with, he's played an inordinate amount of his time

with people like Ian Cole and Rob Scuderi. And with all due respect to those players, those aren't top-paring defensemen. Cole is the number seven guy in St. Louis, Scuderi. He used to be a decent player, but he's just at that point where his skills are eroding. And as you go down the Pittsburgh lineup, outside of Ole Mata, he's had health issues this year, and Crystal Tang seems to have health issues every year. There just aren't a lot of guys who can move the puck.

And Mike Johnston's approach to compensate for that, it seems to me, has been to play this sort of ultra-conservative style where the forwards come really low and support the defensemen. And you know what? Maybe that isn't the way to do it. Maybe you just have to trust the guys you have and hope that, you know, the Brian Dumlin's of the world can get the job done. Right. But there was no reason for the GM,

I'm not to expect it because it's exactly what he did in the playoffs last year. In that round against New York, Pittsburgh's defense was just decimated by injury. They basically had Paul Martin in a minor league team on the blue line, and he did the exact same thing. He had the forwards come super low. He had the defense not being relied upon to do anything because the defense couldn't move the puck.

I actually tracked passes in one game, and they flubbed two-thirds of their passes. They couldn't make a pass without a forechecker, even without a forecheck, really. And so anyway, I'm rambling, but the point here is this was somewhat foreseeable. Some of the other things maybe weren't and maybe even justify firing Johnston, but I don't know what Kim Rutherford was expecting when he went into the year because he knew how this was going to play out, or he knew how the coach was going to handle it at least.

Yeah, I mean, you mentioned the guys they have on the blue end right now. I mean, Latang is obviously injured and that changes everything, but David Worsowski is on their top pairing, And I don't think that's necessarily a recipe for success. And it's fascinating that, you know, when people kind of put all this blame on guys like Crosby and Malkin and Kessel this season, and their play over the year has kind of fluctuated. And certainly at certain points, they've kind of deserved the criticism they've received. But it's tough when you're just bleeding blue line talent pretty much every summer, right?

Like they lost as much as we like to make fun of a guy like Brooks Orpick. He still would probably be an upgrade for this team on the blue line. And then you talk about guys like Niskinnan and Paul Martin. And a couple of those guys received massive UFA contracts, which it's understandable that the penguins just couldn't really afford them. But the deal that really sticks out to me is the Simone DePray one for where he just needlessly traded him away for Ben Lovejoy. And Lovejoy is a serviceable guy, especially before when he was sort of underpaid. Ironically enough, when the penguins kind of just let him go for nothing to the ducks, I thought that he was a pretty good asset because he was making pennies. and as a third-parring guy, he was perfectly serviceable.

But I just, I don't understand what they're doing. They have this glut of defensemen who can't really move the puck or string together passes, as you said. And that just makes life so difficult for all these forwards up ahead. Absolutely, absolutely. And it's been exacerbated, I think, by what's happened on the power play. It's even strengths, you look at that defense and you go, okay, that's a major problem. And then you go to the power play. And if you have one guy like Letang and you're running, you know, what everybody does,

which is four forwards and one defenseman. You should be able to make that power play work with the forwards you have. And that was something that they just couldn't get done in Pittsburgh. I read something the other day that said Rick Tawcett was the guy in charge of the powerplay, which sort of amused me because he said, you know, the one holdover and the guy who you sort of think maybe ownership foisted on Johnston when he was hired. But that doesn't either or no there. But the thing is you have all those problems getting the puck out of your own end

at even strength, and you're playing this ultra-conservative style, and then you can't compliment it with a lethal power play with that talent, and that to me is what really killed Johnston, and rightly so. Like, you need that power play to click, or, I mean, given what's happening at even strength, you're just not going anywhere. So the interesting follow-up question is we can, you know, get to the Penguins in a second, but for Mike Johnson himself, I mean, there's been kind of rumors that he's going to go back to the WHL, and whether it's as a coach or sort of a more of a management type role with a certain team, kind of reassemble his stock to where it used to be,

and then potentially come back for another NHL run down to road. Like, I don't know, it's kind of weird because when he was coming over to the NHL from Portland and WHL, he was kind of built as this Chip Kelly type coaching mind where he was going to be very innovative and he was going to do all this sort of stuff that guys like you and I would really appreciate, right? Like he had those preseason comments before his first year with the penguins where he said that he was going to taser people. They tried to dump the puck into the zone instead of carrying it in. And stuff like that was, you know, obviously that was a little extreme in tongue and cheek.

But it was kind of fascinating to see whether he would actually carry over some of those principles. And from his year and a half or so, I mean, we didn't really see any of that. And I'm not sure if, you know, all of that blame should go to him or whether there was some kind of interference there from the guys up above him. or I don't know, maybe just it was a lot easier for him to do in the juniors. And then when he came up to the big leagues, it was kind of just like struggled under the pressure and kind of went back to a more conservative approach, which most coaches go with. I don't know. Like, do you think that he was necessarily entirety to blame here?

Like obviously, Jim Rutherford's roster construction here is, as we discussed, a big issue. But what do you think about the job Johnston did himself? I thought, if I remember correctly, like Pittsburgh got off to a really hot start when Johnston was hired. The first two or three months, they just caught fire. Then they ran into some injuries on the blue line, and that seemed like it was it. Like they limped into the playoffs. They got dumped early. They got off to a bad start this year.

I don't think Johnston's entirely to blame, but we're going on probably 60, 70 games of not very good penguins hockey. And maybe that's the roster construction. And I've been blaming Jim Rutherford. And I've had a little bit of pushback because, of course, Ray Shiro deserves a fair portion of the blame as well. Rutherford's hands were tied to some degree. I don't think it's a total out clause form. But anyway, you look at what Johnston wasn't able to do with that roster.

And you kind of, you wish he'd maybe experimented a little bit more. it's so easy to second guess a guy. And obviously, you know, a guy with Johnston's career knows a lot more about coaching than you or I do. He's been all over the place and done a good job. But you would like to see him maybe move away from that ultra-conservative approach that he sort of took as the one solution

and which didn't work for a long time before they finally let him go. Well, it's fascinating you bring up Ray Shiro because obviously he inherited some of the guys in New Jersey, but I think the best thing, it was like a very subtle storyline that no one really talked about this summer was that he really kind of shaped that team around a puck moving, good skating, blue line where he brought in guys like John Moore and David Schlemko for super cheap to add on to Adam Larson and Damon Severson and Eric Jelan and those types. And the penguins could certainly use a John Moore right now, for example. And it's kind of funny to see that Ray Sherrill, maybe I guess he learned from his past mistakes or maybe, maybe, Maybe, you know, someone else, I know the devils are a very analytically savvy organization these days.

Maybe they kind of, someone was kind of talking into his ear and helping him along the process. But it's fascinating to see that a few very small, subtle moves that he made this summer could have really helped the penguins right now. So I don't know. Stuff like that kind of cracks me up a little bit. Well, you, yeah, it's really interesting what's happening in New Jersey. And, I mean, I think Pittsburgh's problems would be much easier to deal with. if they had Damon Severson and Adam Larson and whatever else. And I mean, they do have Olimbott, so maybe they can't complain.

But the thing about New Jersey, you mentioned John Moore, you mentioned David Schlemko, and they did the same thing up front. And that forward core was really bad. But they brought in guys like, well, Stampney Axi, obvious one, Kyle Palmary, Yuri Tolusti. All these guys were cheap contracts. And this is, it's interesting. I was listening to the broadcast you tweeted out the other day between you and Travis

Jose talking about Alex Simon. And these gambles are the kind of things that analytics people, and, you know, I'm using that term loosely, but they love, they love the idea of taking a guy like Lee Stampniak who looks like, you know what, maybe he can be a top six score in the right situations. He contributes here, he contributes there. He's got good underlying numbers, and he's available for only 800K. Like, there are, and Yuri Tolusti's the same thing. Like, Toulistee was a guy I thought was a really good gamble this summer because he was

going to be so cheap. He hasn't had a good season, and that's going to happen with these guys. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. But you can spend, you know, if you spend five million dollars and bring in five good gambles and two of them work out, well, you're still way ahead than you are, which be if you, you know, did what Edmonton did a couple years ago and take Cam Barker to a half million. Right. And that's sort of this, those are the moves you kind of have to take a risk on and exploit if you're devoting that much of your cap to three or four guys like the penguins are, right? Like no one's going to fault them for paying guys like Malk and Crosby, Kessel, and Letang, the money they are because they're star players and they deserve it. But when you're

doing that, you have to round out the edges of your roster with guys that can contribute for very cheap and are undervalued assets. And I have to admit, I thought that Rutherford did a fairly decent job this summer, at least in terms of the forward group where he brought in guys like Eric Fair and Matt Cullen and those types for very cheap. And they were massive improvements over what they had in years past in those roles. But the blue line is a massive issue. And I'm looking at their roster and I'm trying to figure out what the alternatives are right now. Because obviously they have a guy in Derek Poolyot who could be an answer to a lot of their problems in the HL.

And he's had a few personal issues this season. But, you know, I'm not going to dock a young guy for having a little bit of fun like he has. So I think he'll be up eventually and he'll be a big boost to what they, to what they're looking for. But in terms of actual, like, other roster moves, I'm just not sure what they can really do. I mean, Pascal DuPui going on LTIR will help them a little bit. It'll give them a little bit of breathing room.

But otherwise, I just, like, I don't know, is there a quick fix here? Or is it something that they're going to have to wait till the summer to explore? Like, I don't know, like what, because I don't think that just riding it out is the answer. Obviously, they have enough talent here where they can kind of put it together and go on a run and anything's possible. But I think it'll be foolish to just,

go into the playoffs with this roster right now? Well, the problem with me, for me, with Pittsburgh is that at some point, you know, your window closes. Like, every year these guys get further and further away from their prime. And I mean, Crosby and Malcolm's Primes are so good that they're still going to be good for years and years after. But you get a little bit worse every year at the top end. And you can't, so you're burning daylight.

You can't afford to just say, well, you know, it didn't work this time away until the summer. But in salary camp era, it's so difficult to make these moves in season. I mean, we haven't seen an in-season trade this year. It's baffling. I think Poolyat's an obvious solution. And I kind of think you maybe have to look at the rental market on defense. If you've got a good coach in Mike Sullivan, and obviously Sullivan had a great run with the baby pens before he got promoted.

And, you know, tying that into Pugliott, maybe that's the sort of thing that gets Pooleyot. a recall is Mike Sullivan comes in and watches his defense for two games and says, we've got guys in the minors that can help. But the thing you might have to do is just look at rental players, because realistically it's hard to make a real legitimate hockey move in season. And there are guys who are going to be available, who are pending free agents who can help you out offensively. Right.

So I'm looking at that list right now, and it's kind of tough to see a guy like Bufflin or Yandel, especially Yandel. I mean, the Rangers aren't going to help the Penguins out with their biggest need. But I don't know, like, what do you think about, it's tough because he carries such a massive cap hit, kind of squeezing that in there. But a guy like Brian Campbell would be a godsend to this blue line. Obviously, the Panthers have some playoff aspirations themselves, and it doesn't help that they're in that Atlantic division, which is pretty weak. And it's wide open, especially for that second, third spot in that division.

So I don't know if the Panthers themselves are going to kind of want to just give away a guy like Brian Campbell. But I look at him, and he'd be perfect for what this team needs right now. Yeah, Brian Campbell would be a really nice fit. I think it's Pussy and Conference. You mentioned Bustlin to cap it makes it difficult. You know, there are ways around that, especially later in the year when there's only a small amount left. And to me, if I look at Winnipeg and I don't know that they can say, well, we can afford to lose Bustlin for nothing in the off season. Like if he's not going to resign, I don't know how they don't trade him.

He's a guy who fits. I also think some of the RSAs, and I'm thinking specifically of Justin Schultz, in Edmonton, who, I mean, and I'm speculating here, but Edmonton might not want to pay him $4 million in the summer, and they made the decision to do it last year, they might not want to do it again. That's the kind of guy that maybe you can pick up at the deadline, treat him as a rental player, and then let him walk in the summer if you can't afford to pay him that money or you don't think he's worth it.

And Schultz is obviously a limited guy, but he's a guy who would help in that specific department. And I think there are other examples around the league that would cut that bill. Yeah, no, that's fascinating. I think that's definitely a storyline to follow as the year goes along. Let's move on to the Stephen Stamco situation because we haven't really talked about on the show much in recent weeks. And I was kind of wary of diving into it too much just because he liked a TSN article about him and the Leafs. I thought that, you know, I need a bit more evidence than that. But this recent article by friend of the podcast, James Myrtle himself from yesterday is fascinating,

where I'm not sure if I just wasn't paying attention in the summer. or whether, you know, this is news to other people, but I wasn't really aware of this rumor, I guess, that Eiserman had approached the Sabres about doing a Eichol for Stamco swap around the draft, and I thought that was fascinating, and apparently a potential deal that was in advanced stages, according to some people,

was sort of nixed by Stamco's saying he didn't really want to sign an extension with them. And I don't know, there's a lot of, you know, where there's smoke, there's fire, and it's interesting. The Myrtle also notes that Stamco's, coach John Cooper have a massive divide in terms of Stamco's wanting to play down the middle and Cooper thinking he's better suited on the wing and they just gave Cooper an extension and I can't

really fault him for that because I think I do think he's one of the better coaches in the league but it's interesting that if that is true it's kind of a slap in the face to Stamco's so I don't know like what do you think that there's a realistic possibility at this point that he either a gets traded at the deadline because they realize they can't resign him or they just ride it out and he signs with another team? Like, I don't know. Like, how do you think this is going to play out? It's a really tough situation for Tampa Bay.

And I don't think, like, I read the same Myrtle article, and it makes a lot of good points. And you look at guys who are coming up to UFA years, people like Victor Headman, who's not that far away. They've got a lot of young RFAs coming up who they have to pay. Right. Maybe you can't cut Stamco's loose. and the thing with him playing on the wing, like that goes back to last year's playoffs, so it wouldn't surprise me,

you know, reading that stuff about the possibility of an Eichol for Stamcoast deal, which reminds me, I mean, it probably wouldn't turn out that way, but it reminds me a little bit of the Yashan for, Yash and for Spets a deal that ought to win years back. Right.

But, but it does make sense. And it's funny how you get the historical parallels because I remember for years and years, there were rumors that Vincent La Cableeet and, John Torto Alto couldn't get just couldn't work together in Tampa Bay

and eventually they both just had to suck it up and work together and they won the cup. But not that this is the same

situation. I don't know that if sorry, I wonder if it's so difficult for Tampa Bay to move them just because

this is a team that could legitimately win the cup this year right? Like they, and you don't get many opportunities

like that. So you trade even Stamco's you get, you know, a first-round pick, a decent roster player, and a good prospect. Maybe that's what a package for two months of Stamcoast looks like. Is that worth the trade-off of maybe winning the Stanley Cup? It's a very tough decision. In Steve Eisenman's shoes, just because you don't get that many opportunities with a team like this,

I'd really be inclined to roll the dice and hang on to them through the summer. Yeah, it's fascinating because obviously they had a lot of success last year, and even when they lost in the Stanley Cup finals, everyone was like, oh well, you know, this core is very young and this is, you know, hardly going to be the last time we're going to see them here. They're going to be the favorites once again next year and for years to come just because of how young some of these guys are. But they're kind of at an interesting crossroads here where you mentioned it. I mean, for example, this summer, even aside from Stamco, Nemesnikov, Kuturov and Kalarna are all RFAs. And then the next summer, it's Drew and Palat and

Tyler Johnson. And they're all going to get paid much more than they're making right now. And Victor Headman's coming up as a UFA and he's going to make a lot more money than he's making. And Ben Bishop himself, I don't know if they're going to let him walk and ride with Vasilevsky or what they're going to do there. And they have a bunch of fascinating kind of roster construction decisions to make here. And it's safe to say that they're hardly going to resemble the team that they are right now or were last year and two years from now. And I don't know.

I definitely think that the East is sort of wide open and it would make sense for them to kind of go all in once again and try to win the cup because you never know when you're going to get that sort of opportunity again. But at the same time, it would really be a big blow to just see a guy of Steven Stamco's talent level and ability and what he's meant to that franchise, just walk this somewhere and for them to have nothing other than, I guess, some more cap space to work with. Like, that would be a really big blow to them. And I don't know, it's such a interesting decision because I feel like for Steve Iserman, there's, it's sort of like a lose, lose, right? Like, unless they win the cup this year, basically whatever he does is probably going to

wind up, like, looking like a mistake. So I just, I don't envy his position. Like, I'm not sure what I would do if I was running the lightning. Absolutely. And the thing that really should be mentioned if we're looking at these coming years is the amount of money they have tied up in veterans who, maybe you don't, well, I mean, they're spending $5.8 million on Ryan Callahan who can help, but it's going to be, you know, two years from now when you're trying to resign headman, how good is that deal going to look? Silpel is a good player. He's making $5 million for the next three years. Matt Carl is a third pairing defenseman at this point, five and a half million in the next three years. Jason Garrison, I know you're familiar with Garrison, but he's a good player,

but three years from now, he's still making $4.6 million. Right. Either, excuse me, tough contracts to work around. And the one thing I wonder when I look at Eisenman is, and this is just, there's no basis for this. beyond just my wild speculation, wondering what I would do in his shoots, is I would be tempted to call up Carolina and ask about Eric Stahl. I mean, these aren't, the Stamco's obviously a superior player to stall,

but it's one of those situations where maybe you can have your cake a little bit and eat it too, where you can move a guy who you probably aren't going to resign and still keep a piece, like, not significantly, like not majorly damage your team this year. I mean, obviously it's a downgrade, but it's not that substantial. as substantial as, you know, just letting him walk for futures would be, and still potentially go into the summer and have the possibility of resigning Mackay. Yeah, it's going to be fascinating to see how they approach this.

I feel like it will be a very defining couple of months for that lightning franchise, and I was a huge fan of watching them last year, and I'm not really sure what's going on this year. Like, obviously, it's a very convenient narrative for people to say that the lightning are struggling because there's so much uncertainty with Stamco's and there's this cloud kind of hanging over them and they're just kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop and they're very well I mean these are human beings and they're very well maybe a little bit of that kind of fact of the matter is yeah that I mean the whole team right yeah exactly I mean

there's six in the Atlantic right now and they're 26th in the league and goal scored and I'm it's just like from from watching them it's just been a very underwhelming like I'm not sure what the answer is there what like it just hardly the team that they were last year and I understand that Tyler johnson struggled this year and he's out now with injury again and palat's been injured in and out of the lineup as well and that triple line was kind of uh uh quietly at the start and then as the playoffs got going everyone sort of acknowledged that they were like the line that was really moving the needle for them and that hasn't been the case this year and i wonder if you know that that's sort of been the the major difference or i just i'm i can't really think

figure it out. People keep asking me what's wrong with Tampa this year. And I'm not sure, honestly, it's one of those situations that's just going to be interesting to see how it develops, I guess. Yeah, it's a really interesting situation. And you didn't expect them to struggle to the degree that they have. I mean, I certainly didn't. The one thing I think we always need to be aware of is just how close teams are in this league. Like the L.A. Kings, to me, are sort of the poster child for this. When they miss the playoffs, the other year, they had the, I think it was an identical record to the record they had in 2012 when they won the Stanley Cup. So you can be a team that's number, you can be a Stanley Cup winner and

out of the playoffs and not really have a huge difference in terms of your actual level of ability. It's just so close. I'm not saying that's what's going on with Tampa Bay. I'm just saying that's one of those things that we maybe don't give enough credit for. that we need to do. Like the drop from being the 10th best team in the league, being the 20th best team in the league, is a lot smaller than it used to be. Then the other thing I wanted to say was that

these distraction narratives always kind of amuse me because they're always, always after this act, obviously, like you wait until it's struggles, and then you say them. And the other thing is when there are these distractions when a team keeps playing, we don't hear about them as much. like Patrick Kane this year is a great example, not that it's remotely the same situation,

but there's a lot there that could be distracting for a guy, and he's, you know, putting together this great stretch of play. And you go, well, maybe these two things aren't related, you know, like the off-ice distraction stuff is a convenient narrative when problems happen, when play on the ice isn't very good, you can say, well, there were off-ice distractions. But in so many situations, there are things happening off the ice that aren't good. and the players keep playing great hockey. And so I'm always very leery about using that excuse. Well, and I mean, growing up, I was always told by the talking heads on television

that guys were extra motivated in their contract years. So I'm kind of confused why Stephen Stamco's isn't scoring 60 goals this year. I thought that he'd be extra motivated to make even more money. So I don't know what's going on there. But Milan Luchich is on a great shooting percentage run, and that he's in the contract years. Yeah, he's looking to make extra money. All right, one final thing before I let you go, Jonathan.

And I had Kent Wilson on last week, and we kind of discussed this topic a little bit. And I know that you've written about it recently yourself, so I figured we could end the show with it. And it's the idea that we're still, you know, sorely lacking in our ability to evaluate defensemen properly. And I think that there definitely is still a rift between how much we can properly quantify certain guys' impact on a team's play. that don't have the overwhelming counting stats, for example, or, or, you know, do certain, like, there's guys that are just subtly very good defensive players that, unless you're really kind of keying in on them and focusing on their contributions, you're not going to really fully appreciate what they're doing. And I don't know, it's a fascinating subject because we have made so many

advancements in the past couple of years in terms of our understanding of the game, but I feel like that is still a room we have a lot, a subject. we have a lot of space to grow in. Yeah, it is. We're way close to the beginning than we are to the end of the analytics conversation in hockey. This is a process that's never going to end, and we still have so much to learn about how we assess defensemen,

how we assess goaltenders, goaltenders in the other area that we don't do a very good job. And I'd say we do a worse job with goalies than defensemen. And even forwards, who we're much better at evaluating the defense. I do tend to think that the idea that we don't, know much about defensemen is maybe a little more overstated than it was. It reminds me of a few years back when sort of the current analytics mainstream thought was

just getting started and they looked at forward and said, forwards and said, you know, this guy's not good, this guy's good, this guy needs more ice time. And people laughed at them and, you know, laughed at the idea of course, C, and et cetera, et cetera, because it wasn't, there was an established way of doing things and what was being said by this new school of thought conflicted with that. And when you look at what's happening on defense, I think we're at a point

where the barrier for forwards was a lot smaller than it was for defensemen because a lot of what we, a lot of what Corssey says corresponds with, you know, points per hour and other things. And so it does make sense. And when you look at defensemen, you don't have that, it's a much bigger hurdle because they aren't assessed the same way. And so when there's a clash between what people who are coming from an analytics background

say and what the conventional hockey wisdom is, I think of a guy like Jack Johnson is a good example, there's plenty of others you could name. There's a lot of pushback because they say, well, the analytics don't measure this, this, and this. And there's a very established set of conventional wisdom that has to, be overturned. And we've gotten worse at overturning conventional wisdom over the last few years. You see guys like Tyler Delo and Derek Tulski and, you know, Vic Ferrari hired by NHL teams. Those are the most prominent voices. Those are the guys who are doing a lot of this groundbreaking work that maybe didn't get page views, but didn't get major page views, but was the underpinnings

of modern analytic thought. And then you have people like me who write for a lot of mainstream publication. And even if the mainstream publication is very supportive, I know if I write a really in-depth stats piece that takes me eight to ten hours, it might get a quarter of the traffic of a 45-minute piece riffing on a trade rumor. And so there's the way the system works is as people like, some people move into the mainstream with NHL teams and they go dead and quiet. We don't have those voices overturning conventional wisdom.

and then you have other people get hired by more mainstream publications, and they have to do a lot more, they have to do a lot of other things and less of the stats work that maybe they did is when they were independent. So you combine this hurdle of increased conventional wisdom, or of established conventional wisdom, and fewer and fewer voices doing a lot of the work that was done in the early years, and it becomes a lot harder to overturn that wisdom.

So I do think that my long rambling answer is that I do think, We have lots of work to do on how we evaluate defenseants, but I also think we have to do a much better job of presenting what we know right now. Yeah, I completely agree. It's fascinating to me. I mean, it's maybe fascinating. It's not even the right word. It's maybe more depressing how I can spend three days, you know, kind of putting together a really in-depth critical thought piece about a player or a team and then or a trend in the league. And then I can spend, you know, 30 seconds putting together a vine of joy and.

Gordon Tutu falling and throw bench head first and a hundred times more people pass that along than the article I spent three days on. So it's, yeah, it's one of those things where it's not sometimes not really as rewarding to spend that much time kind of trying to think critically about this stuff. But it is stuff that we need as the hockey community. So it's going to be, hopefully we'll continue to do that and grow as fans and people watching and thinking about the game. You mentioned some of the places you write for

Let's plug some stuff before you go Where can people find you on Twitter? Where can Are there certain projects you're working on right now Or just let the people know where they can find you? Yeah, the best place is probably just Twitter At Jonathan Moulis That's where I post links to all my stuff

Right now I'm writing for the Edmonton Journal For Oilers Nation, for Sportsnet And for Bleacher Report on a regular basis And then there's other stuff that props up to, but Twitter's the best place to go. Excellent, Jonathan. Well, we'll make sure to have you on again as the year goes along, maybe if we get an answer to that, to all those Stamco's questions or those Penguins questions we ask in this podcast, and we'll be able to recalibrate.

So yeah, hopefully we'll be able to have you back on, man. Yeah, that would be good. Okay, cool. We'll talk soon. Okay, take out. The HockeyPedocast, online at hawkipedocast.com. Subscribe on iTunes, SoundCloud, or follow on Twitter at Dimphilipilip. and at Travis Yost.