The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 364: The Moves You Don't Make

Episode Date: October 16, 2020

Thomas Drance joins the show to discuss the Vancouver Canucks busy offseason, the moves they did and didn't make, and how they can internally build on their success from this past season. 1:00 The Can...ucks patience vs. inactivity to start offseason 13:00 Value of maintaining cap flexibility 21:00 What makes a good GM 31:00 Acquiring Nate Schmidt 36:00 Pettersson and Hughes taking the next step 50:00 Offer sheets and shedding salary around the league Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Starting point is 00:02:06 To the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Philopovich. And joining me is my good buddy Thomas Jans. Thomas, what's going on, man? Dmitri, glad that you've moved into the neighborhood just to set the scene for everybody. Dmitri has moved five minutes away from me, which I'm very excited about, honestly, where you've got a beautiful little pop. Yeah, he's trying to get in on the microphone. I know, it's amazing.
Starting point is 00:02:46 You're like, is he a distraction? I'm like a welcome one. He's so cute. And Noex, welcome to the neighborhood, and thanks for having me on. Well, that was very inside baseball there. We're drinking some local beers or having a good time. We're enjoying the offseason. We're going to talk about the Canucks today, mostly.
Starting point is 00:03:03 We'll talk about the bubble playoffs, which you covered obviously and the rest of the league in free agency. But the Canucks, not necessarily the most involved team in free agency, because they didn't actually make that many moves. But I'd say the most kind of like tangentially. related to player movement or rumors. I mean, started with OEL rumors.
Starting point is 00:03:24 Totally. Lost a couple players to big money deals. Made the Nais Schmidt trade, signed, Brayton, and Hopi. They've been up to stuff. So you and I are going to get into all that. How would you describe this off season so far? Is it a matter of strategically patient?
Starting point is 00:03:43 Or was it a matter of the car keys kind of being taken away in a sense that there's only so much they could. do because of the financial landscape there in. Yeah, I think there's a mix of factors going on, which is a, you know, I don't mean to squirrel here. I just think that the clear judgment call made, right, was not to go all in. And I think that's apparent because if you wanted to go all in, you would have done big term deal for at least Jacob Markstrom, right? Like, you would have not lost him over term and movement protection. Like you would have figured out how to make that work.
Starting point is 00:04:23 You would have monetized the Demco asset, right? You know, you get Markstrom done. You can throw Demco into the OEL deal. For example, you end up with Markstrom OEL. You load up for the last year of Pedersen and Hughes's ELCs. I think it's pretty clear that the Canucks decided not to do that. Like they decided to take a wider sort of angle lens approach to this offseason.
Starting point is 00:04:46 And my guess is that's both a hockey judgment based on where their club is at and a business judgment based on the fact that you're not going to be able to drive gate revenue this upcoming season anyway. And, you know, we'll sort of see where that ends up. I think when I think about this Kinnock's off season, though, the opportunity cost of just not having the type of cap flexibility to do more than a couple of things, more than shore up your goal tending, whether it was with Jacob Markstrom or once Jacob Markstrom departed with Brayden Holpey. and upgrade your top four with Nate Schmidt. Like, Thatcher, sorry, Tyler Tofoli on a reasonable deal to Montreal. Troy Stetcher on a very reasonable deal. Like, it's actually sad that the Canucks couldn't figure out a way to keep him in town. Like, that's a classic, you know, 1.7 times two.
Starting point is 00:05:34 Like, that's a classic low value stay in your hometown type contract. You know, as such, they end this offseason, downgraded and goal. Well, they haven't ended it yet. Well, sure, but end the initial flurry, right? Right. Downgraded and goal, thinner on the back end, and thinner up front, and probably less talented. And when you're entering the final year of Hughes and Pedersen's ELCs and the opportunity cost of not dramatically upgrading your club for that season, it just feels like a huge missed opportunity. Yeah, it's, I don't really, I did a kind of early winners and losers podcast of Free Agency with Dom and Allison recently. And we were talking about the Canucks, and I don't necessarily know which angle to go on here and how to frame it.
Starting point is 00:06:23 Because on the one hand, like in a vacuum, I think Jim Benning's patience has been commendable. Because there were a lot of potential landmines put in his way that I think he would have gladly stepped on in years past, starting with the OAL trade rumors and the idea of giving up legitimate assets for that contract. But they would have moved money out. they would have moved money out. Well, what's the, what's the market value of moving out Lou Erickson's deal?
Starting point is 00:06:50 Like, you think about Patrick Marlowe was a $6 million cap hold and 3.5 million in salary after the buyout, and Lou Erickson would be a 6 million times two cap hold with $5 million in salary.
Starting point is 00:07:03 Like, wouldn't market forces dictate? That's worth two first round picks. So if you're getting rid of Lou Erickson's deal at the value of just getting rid of his deal, but adding Ekman Larson. If you're trying to, build something special here with Hughes and Pedersen though. I think you do need a bit of long-term vision not to take on the 8.25 or whatever
Starting point is 00:07:21 for like until the end of time. Until 2027. Yeah, when the guy's going to be in his mid-30s and just doing this all over again. And then like six years for now being like, ah, the Canucks are just in this in this cap crunch, unfortunately. There are real reasons to prefer Nate Schmidt too, right? I mean, Nate Schmidt's a much more active player at this point in his career. We'll get it to nature. So I'm just outlining all of the potential landmines.
Starting point is 00:07:43 And maybe it was taken. out of his, as I alluded to the start, it was kind of taken, the decision was taken out of his hands. Maybe he would have been in a regular year, ideally, gladly done that. I mean, I think it was, I don't think it was taken out of his hands in that they never offered the types of assets that would get the deal done. Like they held close to Podkoulson and Hoglander and Demcoe. And as such, the deal was effectively a non-starter for the coyotes. So, you know, I mean, you're right. I get where you're going. let you continue this thought. Okay. So, like on paper, you get worse just because you have Jacob
Starting point is 00:08:22 Markson, go to a division rival. I think you and I both agree that his 9-17s, say a percentage or whatever this year was not reflective of how good he actually was. And I think next year we're going to see what not having Jacob Marksson's goal-tending behind this defense is going to lead to. But Chris Tannib, you and I, I feel like me, you Camsoron, were like the original members of the Chris Tanna fan club once upon a time. And we were talking before we went on the air. We're both glad that he got paid and got another big, big, uh, big paycheck coming his way. But that was a smart decision to not be picking up the tab on that just for like nostalgia purposes. He was also a great guy to work with just like from a media perspective, like one of my favorite guys to cover.
Starting point is 00:09:02 You just have to throw that in there. I do. Such a media guy. I know, I know. I'm sorry. It just like he was, he was, he just, he comported himself the right way, um, in every way. Like he was just an awesome hockey guy, always game for my weird questions, which I appreciate. Like I don't go in there and ask the normal questions. Like you need to have a sense of humor to work with me. Guys like Jacob Markstrom. Like I like Jacob Markstrom. I think he's a classy guy.
Starting point is 00:09:26 He had no time for me, right? He would just be like, he once said to me, do you ever ask questions about hockey? Because I tried to ask him about Burakowski saying he had played the game like a tree. And I asked him this and he replied to me that I never asked him questions. about hockey and I told him that stopping pucks at a world-class level is the least relatable thing about you and and I don't think we talked for like a month after that but anyway TAN have had a good sense of humor was always fun to cover I always enjoyed working with him I'm glad he got paid well so the re but okay so the reason I'm such a media guy
Starting point is 00:10:03 I don't know how much to make of the rumors I know I know you and I Rick Dollywater writing one with this recently but um I think it was reported that the Canucks offered Tyson Barry more than he took from the Oilers. Canucks, Canucks sources dispute that at length. And I think when you look at the logic of their Sunday, or the Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and, you know, asking Stetcher to wait. We all know they asked Stetcher to wait, not really bidding on Tyler to Foley. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:39 I think that tells you a lot. Like, I find their, I find what I'm hearing from ConnectSource is to be credible. I think they were very high on Barry before the emergence of Quinn Hughes. And I think over time, especially over the course of the season, their opinions shifted a bit. Like, they weren't, they were linked to them again at the trade deadline. And I don't think they were ever in particularly hot pursuit then. Yeah. And they were linked to him again in free agency.
Starting point is 00:11:10 and I don't think they were in particularly hot pursuit or even got to the point where they were willing to commit cap space to that because they basically had Schmidt in hand as they saw it. They were preserving cap space for Schmidt and they thought that with Hughes's emergence, fixed on PP1 that Barry was now an awkward fit for them. Like they wouldn't get the most out of him. So, you know, I think Barry probably made a wise call, by the way, going to be a right shot at the top of that power play unit. And I don't think the Canucks were serious players.
Starting point is 00:11:42 I don't, I think that what I'm hearing from connect sources disputing some of the numbers and reports that are out there on their Barry pursuit, I think those are credible based on how we saw the rest of the weekend play out. So would you think that, from what you gather, Schmidt was like the plan all along? Because it seems like that was like a pretty late forming thing in terms of. Yeah, well, so, and this is, we wrote this today at the athletic, me and Rick Dollywall, But it sounds like after Tanna have left to Calgary, Vegas called the Canucks and said, would you take the full freight in Aitchman?
Starting point is 00:12:18 And I think they'd watch the market unfold, especially the goaltending merry-go-round. And sort of the music stopped and goaly musical chairs. It was Mark Andre Fleury without a seat. And so I think their attention shifted to moving money out in different ways so that they could enable themselves to get the Pietrangelo deal done. Right. Obviously, patcheretti and Marcia So's names have been out there as well. But I think they called the Canucks and the Connects. There were other teams that wanted assets for taking on Schmitz deal.
Starting point is 00:12:50 Yeah. Well, he'd been linked to Florida before that. Right. I think it'd never even reported that. He was like, this was done deal. That was very credible. Andy Strickland did report that. And I think there were conversations with Florida, but I think Florida never got the chance to bid.
Starting point is 00:13:06 Like, and I think there's a couple teams. There's a couple teams that saw the Schmidt deal and thought the Kinnock should have got more for letting Vegas out of cap jail. And then there were other teams, Florida among them, that saw the deal and thought, why didn't we get a chance to bid? Well, it's kind of like a game of a chicken in the sense that I think everyone agrees, in the media, okay, let's say from the outside, no investment in the situation. Everyone's like, don't let Tampa Bay and Vegas off the hook. They very clearly are in a bind here. Totally. Good teams remain good because bad teams keep letting them off the hook.
Starting point is 00:13:37 Right. And so it's very easy to just be like, all right, everyone, let's just agree. Don't make them really pay for this. But then if you're running a team and you're Jordan Benning or the Canucks, you're like, we desperately need an NHL defenseman. Yeah. We can get a good one for free, for a future third. For a future third.
Starting point is 00:13:54 Not even next year's third. And so I can't really begrudge them for sort of breaking that unwritten code in terms of not letting them off the hook because ultimately you're trying to improve your team above all else. you're not trying to, I mean, yes, you're a direct competitor against the other 30 teams, but at the same time, you need to focus on improving your team first. It's parity in action. Like this is what the system is designed to do, right?
Starting point is 00:14:18 Organizations that accumulate too much talent struggle to keep them. They make other organizations better. And we've seen it time and time again with the Blackhawks and, you know, certainly with Tampa Bay. But, you know, this is the second consecutive year that the Canucks have essentially made a pretty similar deal. one for J.T. Miller and one for Nate Schmidt. And I don't think it's like I think it's a straightforward thing to argue that they've got two top of the lineup pieces for their trouble. And, you know, the Miller deal was obviously a lot riskier. Right.
Starting point is 00:14:51 Because it included a first round pick for a team that hadn't made the playoffs in five years. Yeah. Conditional. But, you know, you end up giving up the 23rd overall pick and a third round pick in 2022 to get Nate Schmidt and J.T. Miller. I mean, in a vacuum, everyone does that. The context of it, however, I do think makes it a little bit more complicated, but nonetheless, just straight up self-interest. I think there's no doubt that this makes sense.
Starting point is 00:15:16 And does make Vancouver's top four group more dynamic overall, even if it's pretty apparent that they still need another body there. And ideally, another depth guy there too, and they're not going to have a ton of space to figure that all out. I guess that's, I mean, you know this, following the local market and sort of the dialogue, like it feels like this conversation of whether the Canucks were going to be in trouble with a cap
Starting point is 00:15:39 and whether it would limit their ability to improve their team and all that was like a conversation that was being had for the entire year leading up to this. And in a way, they had the ability to absorb Nate Schmidt's contract. But on the other hand, they had to let a bunch of other stuff go that would have obviously improved their team as well.
Starting point is 00:15:56 So it's kind of, this is like the context of this entire Connect situation is so tough to wrap head around because it's a Rorschach test you can sort of argue whatever you want. Oh, they did a good job here, but it's like, oh, well, if they hadn't done all these bad things before, then maybe they could have done even more good jobs right now. Totally. Well, and, you know, one thing that I think we just got to say is in this market for some reason, there's been like voices insisting that the cap wasn't an issue, which, by the way,
Starting point is 00:16:25 never matched the internal opinion of it, right, as the books unfolded. And Tyler Tofoli's exit. opinion as well. Right. And Tyler Foley's view. Well, and the whole industry's view. Like the whole industry has been like, hey, they have cap trouble. They have cap trouble on the horizon. And for some reason, there's been voices in this market that have refused to see like the very obvious writing on the wall. Like it wasn't even writing. It was neon flashing signs on the wall that, you know, a cap crunch was coming. And even now as it's become like apparent, the emperor has no clothes.
Starting point is 00:17:02 anyone arguing that the team wasn't facing cap issues has now been demonstrably proven wrong. People are like, well, this isn't how it would have played out except for the flat cap and the pandemic. And it's like, that added some stress to it. Yes. And there are elements, and I do think this is important to note too. I don't get to note this enough, so I like to. There are elements that were beyond the club's control, like a ridiculous $3 million recapture hit for Riverto Lwango. Right.
Starting point is 00:17:29 But nonetheless, you know, to some extent, this is the chickens of free agent mistakes past coming home to Roost a little bit for the club. And it will clearly delay their arrival, I think, as a contending team. I don't really have any time for that argument of no one could have seen the global pandemic coming. The cap is flat. And like, yeah, obviously that complicates things. But ultimately, it's a pretty, like, volatile, highly.
Starting point is 00:17:58 vary in business and things happen. And so, like, each contract, you're basically, like, inheriting a certain amount of risk, right? It's like a risk reward analysis each time. And so if you're, like, constantly towing this fine line and, like, limiting your room for flexibility, bad stuff's going to happen. Totally. And that's just part of the game.
Starting point is 00:18:16 And so when something bad does happen, you can't be like, who could have seen this bad thing happening? Well, especially, like, in the last 10 years, we saw, for example, when oil prices cratered and so did the Canadian dollar, the value of the Canadian dollar, which limited hockey related revenue. Like it was only in 2013 that all of a sudden the cap was flat for a couple of years. You know, and teams had committed all this money to extensions and kind of got hooped. But it's like it's not like that's some far off.
Starting point is 00:18:43 That's six years ago. Like that's most general managers who are working for teams now. We're working for teams then. Like we've all seen this happen. You know that this is a risk in cap planning. And when Gary Betman comes out at the board of governor's meeting a week before the global pandemic and says, you know, we're projecting an 88 or an 84 to an 88 million dollar cap.
Starting point is 00:19:05 Like every single bookkeeper in the league does zilch to adjust their own internal cap projections because every team projects conservatively because you're, you'd way rather under budget than over budget. If you have more cap space, like great, but no one budgets for that. Yeah. And so, you know, the fact is, is that the, the flat cap era, like because the cap was like, The cap is artificially being kept flat to give teams some space. Should the PA and the league have agreed to have compliance buyouts in this scenario?
Starting point is 00:19:37 Yeah, clearly, you can tell with all the good players left available on the market that there were probably better ways to handle this than ultimately we've gone into. But it doesn't change the fact that, you know, the idea that no one could have seen this coming. This was completely unforeseeable. Flat cap scenarios have happened before organically. the flat cap itself props this up to a level that's honestly only like a million or a million and a half lower than, you know, the most, the most bearish NHL projections with the players eschewing the escalator anyway. This was, this actually ends up within the realm of something that should have been easily anticipated because of the agreement to fix the cap at 81.5 until hockey related revenues get back to 4.8 billion. Yeah. Okay. Well, so we're going to talk more about Schmidt here in a second. I did want.
Starting point is 00:20:27 who, I think the Tofolio one is the one that really obviously stings beyond the price they paid for 17 games of him. Especially because it also costs him Gallagher. But don't you think, like, I mean, we saw it in practice in the regular season in the 10 games or so. He played with Pedersen and Miller where their underlying numbers were just off the charts and it was like a very perfect fit. Yeah. But he also, like statistically profiles is I think the perfect what the Canucks should be looking for. Unfortunately, none of those guys are really on the market anymore of like, a legitimate
Starting point is 00:20:58 uh player that can on the wing impact the shot share yeah while also having some finishing ability but that rounds out that top six right and he's like such a now that I think about he's such a habs player in the sense that like his shot like they're going to have all of the shot attempts and and shoot like six percent as a team totally and that is to fully to fully yeah right like to fully but the Canucks need more of that
Starting point is 00:21:22 because they have enough guys who score above their expectation totally no no exactly right Yeah. He was the, well, Elias Pedersen, for example, is an efficiency machine, right? And he's going to sustain this, which is what's so crazy about it. You know, since he entered the league, he's second in the NHL and raw shooting percentage. I think he's first in the NHL by on-ice shooting percentage, all situations. And he's going to sustain maybe not to the extent that he has, maybe not 18%,
Starting point is 00:21:49 but he's going to sustain a ridiculous proportion because that shot is a whisper from perfect when he gets everything on it. and he can score in four or five different ways too. Having a volume shooter, like a guy with no conscience on the line. I mean, we've seen this with Marian Gabbaric and Anzee Kopitar, right? Like the way that I've always liked to think about it is there's guys who set the table and there's guys who know how to feast. You know, I mean, Pedersen's kind of a guy who can both set the table and feast himself.
Starting point is 00:22:21 But adding a table setting winger like Tyler Foley, I mean, that's just a, obvious no-brainer fit. We saw it in practice and then you can't discount either. His work at the net front on PP1 gave the Canucks an entirely different look. He was the only righty on Canucks PP1 once he came to Vancouver. He played at the net front so it's not like he was a one-time option. They ran everything off of the left circle with J.T. Miller on his downhill side and Tofoli's playmaking from down low just opened up a ton of grade A opportunities for Bo Horvett. Horvats goal totals on the power play the moment they got Tofoli just went nuts and that continued all playoffs when Tofoli was in the lineup. I think that's going to be probably where they miss him
Starting point is 00:23:07 the most is going to be reintegrating Brock Besser into PP1 which you know not the worst thing to do because Brock Bessor is also really really good but I do think they're going to miss some of the dynamic and just like veteran polish that that Tofoli met brought to PP1. I don't know I have a bunch of notes here on Jim Benny. I just, I don't know what to say. What do you mean? You have a bunch of notes. You're like, you're like the actor that the screenwriter doesn't want to hear from.
Starting point is 00:23:37 It's like, Jim, I've got some notes. I don't, I mean, it's just the reason why I don't want to get into it is because I don't think there's anything necessarily like novel to bring. Right. To the conversation. Like, I do think this, how the past week has transpired certainly leads to like relitigating or sort of reopening a lot of those conversations. has been having a couple of years. Those like old wounds. Well, it's, I don't know, like,
Starting point is 00:24:01 here's a philosophical question for you. If you were the owner of a team and you can hire a GM, all things being equal, are you looking for that person to be a quote unquote hockey person where they're just like a talent evaluator or do they need to have
Starting point is 00:24:16 some sort of like underlying business savvy that allows them to run the team? Because I feel like a lot of NHL teams, like the NHL is a business and all these teams. are business properties. And they don't often seem to run that way. No.
Starting point is 00:24:32 They're just like, oh, I'm just going to hire my friend here. And then we're going to hire a bunch of other people. And then we're going to get these players. And then if it doesn't work out, we'll kind of figure it out on the fly. It's like there's so many millions of dollars involved. And it's not treated that way, like as often as I think it should be. Yeah. I think I want a manager first and foremost.
Starting point is 00:24:50 Like I think that's what people ignore a little bit too often when it comes to hockey execs. You know, I want a guy who's going to spend a lot of time developing people and making sure that resources are being allocated to where their maximum efficiency is reached, whether that's like, hey, we're really good at amateur scouting. Like, how do we get better at pro scouting? And in the meantime, direct our resources to where they're going to have the best impact. Yeah. Like, I want a strategic thinker. But one thing I will say is I do think team sport athletes, like people who have got had military experience, like I think both of those fields often lend themselves to good managers because there's a like team spiritedness and a single minded pursuit of like a measurable goal on a regular basis, like a mission based mentality. And I do think that that milieu does create often, not always, but often.
Starting point is 00:25:51 competent managers. And I do think we see examples of that around the NHL. Like I do think you look at a guy like Joe Sackick, obviously, a guy like Steve Eiserman. I think in the future we'll talk about Chris Drury this way. Right. So I mean, I do think you can get there through a sports background or a hockey background. And I do think that's beneficial in a variety of different ways. But I don't think it's like the end-all be-all. And, you know, I think Lou Lamarillo, the reigning GM of the air, would be good proof that, you know, you can also come to it from the other side, not having that hockey background, but having the right qualities as a manager. And Julian Breesboe, of course, would be another example.
Starting point is 00:26:32 But, I mean, there's a lot of guys, there's a lot of good managers in the NHL. There's a lot of fine managers in the NHL. I think there's only a few really bad ones. Yeah. And I think at the very top end, you can see people with a relatively broad base of experience, both from within the game and without. And I do think that the commonality of what makes, like what's the commonality between Lou and Julian Briseboe, for example?
Starting point is 00:26:58 Like, it's not that they never played hockey. It's that I think they're good managers, first and foremost. I think the same of Steve. Well, I mean, what Eisenman and Sackick, obviously, you know, they deserve credit of their own, but especially like Izerman in Tampa Bay, I can't speak to what he's doing in Detroit right now, but then Sackick, for sure, in Colorado,
Starting point is 00:27:15 is they've also surrounded themselves with really good staff. as well in terms of having diverse opinions. Totally. And I think. But there's a lot of like, you look at the guys in Tampa Bay. Like, yeah, there's Julian Breezeboa who would, didn't have the hockey background. But there's also like Al Murray. Yes.
Starting point is 00:27:31 And, you know, like hockey lifers there, right? You look at Detroit or Colorado. You know, you've got Ryan Martin in Detroit. You've got Chris McFarland in Colorado. Like those guys aren't necessarily former players. But there's clearly people have been around the game for a long time being in empowered, whether or not they have hockey experience or not, it seems to be more about continuity, keeping and promoting your people, developing people, and developing staff. And I think there's,
Starting point is 00:27:58 that's like, from what I've seen around the league, I think that's the biggest gap. Like, what's your plan? From draft pick to the first NHL game of guy plays, like, what's your plan? Right. From hiring someone to be your director of, like, maybe a low-ranking hockey ops Apparachic, an analytics guy, an R&D guy, a PR guy, a marketing guy who really likes the game and actually knows a few things, you know? Like, do you have a plan to identify people in-house and develop them into what they get to next? I think there's far too little of that around the NHL as a whole. I think that's sort of like the secret sauce that if someone can tap into, they're going to get a massive competitive advantage in terms of the boardroom side of the game.
Starting point is 00:28:44 I guess the reason why I brought it up, especially in relation to, like, talking about the Canucks and Deep Diving them, is, and I've had this, like, nagging feeling for years now, even back to when they weren't good and they were like in the middle of whatever that rebuild was they were doing. And even more recently now, like with the How it's Fully Trade at this deadline or the way they're handling this summer, I think people sometimes get really caught up with viewing moves in isolation in terms of, like, does this move improve our team right now? And like it's great to be able to say yes, it does, but there is such an opportunity cost in running an NHL team, which we're seeing like we're getting smacked in the face with that realization this offseason. Totally. The cap and with how many good players are available for just nothing. And so when you're just constantly doing moves like that and like little segments where you're just like, oh, we're just going to give away a bit of value here. We're going to give a bit of value to here. We're not going to flip this veteran for an extra pick down the road.
Starting point is 00:29:42 like that's always been a nagging thing to me with the way this Canucks team has been run where like from a hockey from a player evaluation perspective there's obviously been misses along with hits but I think it's been pretty good but from a business perspective it's always like I feel like they could have maximized this value a little bit more here yeah and that's what I just keep coming back to so that's my biggest irritation it's not even the players they're accumulating it's sort of how it's the business side of things is being done let me let me formulate this to you in another way just as a mental exercise which is that the Canucks in a lot of ways never committed to like a classic like contemporary rebuild where they swered their books and accumulated assets and made 12 picks a year right and and on and on and instead sort of tried to bridge things for a while then sort of accepted that they were going to be bad and sort of moved into a but it was a truncated traditional rebuild it wasn't like an all in you know shana plan
Starting point is 00:30:37 style right rebuilding process and what what that ends up creating is you don't just get caught in the middle when you're bad. You get caught in the middle on your way back up to, where the Canucks have books that are filled with veteran players, right, which limits their flexibility to improve as quickly as they might otherwise. It also leaves them with fewer prospects that might be capable of stepping in affordably in a world on entry-level contracts where that's hugely high leverage. So I sort of think one thing that is worth keeping in mind is,
Starting point is 00:31:12 as we watch Detroit enter their rebuild as we watch a variety of other teams sort of cope with these things. It's like if you don't go all the way when you suck, you can get stuck halfway there and half pregnant on your way back up too. And as teams work through like the efficiency competition that is NHL, you know, competition in general, do you cap yourself to where you're back to being decent, but are you going to be able to surpass the vaguses and the, you know, Tampa Bayes of the world in this kind of half-pregnant posture, which I do think the Canucks find themselves in a little bit this offseason and not just a little bit, like plainly.
Starting point is 00:31:58 Yeah. So, you know, that's sort of the big question that I have, like how much of where they're at now traces directly back to the original sin of not rebuilding all in three, four years ago, and I think a fair bit of it. Well, I mean, it certainly helps, like, you know, winning the lottery and getting the second pick in both the case of the Kings and the Rangers and then getting Panarin to come and sign with you. But, like, those are two teams that very clearly have and the Rangers are ahead of it in this process. The Kings still aren't good. And they still have a couple of years to, like, shed a bunch of money from the Rangers aren't good either.
Starting point is 00:32:29 No, but at least they're like exciting and they're winning. They've won more games recently, right? But they like, they like, they like, unabashedly, like, accepted their fate and like, we're going to be bad. I loved it. They also were honest. Like that's the thing that I feel like is super revolutionary about the Rangers rebuild is when they launched it, they just were like, we're going to suck. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:50 Like this is what's up. And I appreciate that. I feel like teams aren't just like plainly honest with their fans enough. And it's amazing how quickly the Rangers got buy in. Yeah. Because of that, I think Shanahan too. And really it was Babcock, who was the big spokesman for it with there will be pain. Like there will be pain.
Starting point is 00:33:10 B. Payne was the smartest thing the Maple Leafs did because it gave them the space to really suck and have fans get behind it. And, you know, I think both those examples, I don't think it's a coincidence that both of those examples are sort of going to be models for the future of how to rebuild. I mean, the Leafs might have to get out of the first round, but cheap shots aside, I do think that they've clearly stocked up in a pretty impressive way over the last six years. and, you know, I think that honesty side, that messaging side, like, that matters too. Sponsoring today's episode of the HockeyPedio guest is Bed Online. You might not be going to a game this year as we wait for the world to sort itself out
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Starting point is 00:35:50 This is their best offer available anywhere. Go right now to Indeed.com slash Blue Wire. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31st. All right. Let's get into Nate Schmidt. So I'm really, I love the player. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:36:07 He has a very modern skill set, obviously, in terms of his smooth skating. I love the fact that he just doesn't take penalties. He's drawn more penalties at 5-1-5 for his career than he's taken, which is amazing. Very few defensemen can say that. Especially in the matchup role that he plays, right? Yes. And well, and his career has been really fascinating because when he came up with the capitals, they were so reluctant to fully just, like, trust him and give him usage.
Starting point is 00:36:31 And they were a loaded team, and they were competing for Stanley Cup. and in his last season there, he was playing like sheltered third-parad minutes with Brooks Orpick basically, right? And absolutely destroying in them. But I remember that off-season, I think, you know, some people involved with Vegas before their expansion draft were doing a lot of sort of crowdsourcing, asking around, what do you think about this? Who do you think we should take here?
Starting point is 00:36:53 Who do you think is available? And like, Nate Schmidt was someone that was like an absolute slam-down, just purely based on his skill set, right? And then he goes to Vegas, and he's been good. He obviously earned himself a nice. a hulacrative extension, but his role changed so much. And that was like the big question. And we've seen a lot of players fail in that transition,
Starting point is 00:37:12 where they're these analytics darlings, where they're just crushing it in sheltered third-paring minutes. And then a team, either that current team or a new team trades or signs them. And then they're like, we're going to just give you regular minutes. Okay, okay. Enough of the Colin Miller slander. Well, Eric Jellano is my favorite example. Wow.
Starting point is 00:37:29 Eric Jellana. Everyone's like, oh, my God, look at those numbers. and then just can't actually be good. But Schmidt actually, I mean, obviously his numbers have taken a hit, and I think this past year defensively, but the usage was so much more extreme defensively in playing with Braden McNeb. And so just trying to sort of figure out how he's going to fit into this Canucks team
Starting point is 00:37:48 and where they're going to play him and how they're going to use him. You and I were talking before we went on the air about whether you play him with Hughes, whether you can even afford to do so because you just don't have enough good NHL defense. And so you might need to just split up the few talented guys you do have. Yeah, my favorite would just be to get back Schmidt to that extreme offensive deployment and just play him and Hughes as like 75% offensive zone starts and just never leave the offensive zone. I would love that. But you do need six good defensemen to utilize that strategy and that's just a lot of luxury that Connucks don't have. So what do you think they're going to do with him?
Starting point is 00:38:20 I think he plays with Edler. Yeah. I think he plays with Edler. And then situationally, they're going to need to do what they can, especially in a truncated schedule to manage Edler's minutes. So I do think we'll see probably some, you know, situational Schmidt on the left side with Myers and on the right side with Hughes. Like I do think we'll see that in spurts. And, you know, depending on which young Canucks defender ends up breaking into the lineup with their sort of open six spot. And I do think the organization is going to hold an open audition among Oli Olioevieve, Brogan, Rafferty.
Starting point is 00:38:55 Are you going to try out? Are you going to try out for it? Well, not an open audition for me. All local talent? It's open mic. Wow, that would be a story. It would be a really good athletic article. But no, the, you know, it would be Yolevi, Rafferty, Rathbone, and there's someone else, but I can't remember their name.
Starting point is 00:39:19 Oh, I'm sure. It's a Jalen Chatfield. Oh, he's going to reach his 100% projection. Yes. But no, they're going to. one of those guys is going to have an everyday role. Like, I'm pretty confident about it.
Starting point is 00:39:31 So, you know, Schmidt could play some minutes with them too. And I think you're going to see him play a ton. Like, I just think you're going to see him play, like, what happened moving from a third pair in Washington to being a bona fide number one
Starting point is 00:39:45 for three years in Las in Vegas. I think you're going to see that again, basically. I mean, not maybe to that extreme, but what, he's been a 19-ish minutes at five-on-five guy over the last three years. I wouldn't be stunned if he is one of the NHL's minutes leaders in Vancouver just because they're going to want to manage Edler.
Starting point is 00:40:05 He can play the left and right side. He can play with Hughes. He can play with Myers. I'd expect him to start the season with Evler. I think he's going to play a ton for this Canucks team, and they're going to need every minute he can give them. I guess my question for, or trying to figure out and wrap my head around what I think of the Canucks moving forward in terms of their outlook for whenever next season starts and how. good I think they're going to be. And I think what everyone should be asking themselves is, um, not necessarily how much better Pedersen and Hughes can be, but like functionally how much
Starting point is 00:40:41 more impactful they can be while they're on the ice. Because you and I were talking about Travis green and sort of how he might like use different lingo, but he is a pretty sort of modern coach in terms of like his acceptance and sort of the way he uses players. And I think the best thing he did last year was how sort of carefully he manicured Pedersen and Hughes's minutes where like he was using them very strategically and getting the most out of them and putting them in a position to succeed now if both guys are going to be as elite as we think they are and as especially like Pedersen as he's shown he is yeah like what's that transition in terms of maximizing yeah that usage to the fact where now you're all of a sudden using him just all the time
Starting point is 00:41:21 you've hit me with a really high level Canucks bullet um I I wasn't expecting it and I'm going to take a sec, but I think it's a really important point. And something that I think a lot of observers don't realize about the Canucks in general is, you know, like Adam Godette might take line rushes third, but he has fourth line center usage. Like even Adam Godette, even while protecting Pedersen in terms of his matchup deployment, green was also managing Godette's minutes, like very, very closely and giving him essentially fourth line deployment. And what that means is that Bo Horvatt gets absolutely thrown to the wolves, like, at an insane degree. The fact that he produces at a 50-point rate with the matchup burden and territorial burden that he has to soak up for this team is actually pretty impressive.
Starting point is 00:42:12 And that also means that one of Jay Beagle or Brandon Sutter typically is handling a top six matchup. And that goes about as well as you'd expect territorially, right? Like, it just does. and that means that Pedersen gets to, you know, absolutely destroy secondary and sometimes tertiary comp. The way that the Canucks are going to have to play this year, like you cannot, you cannot again, I don't think, play Jay Beagle or Brandon Sutter in a matchup role again. Like, you can't. I don't think you can hunt matchups with one of those groups. like your best chance to succeed.
Starting point is 00:42:53 This team is at its best in a world where Bo Horvatt gets like traditional second line center deployment because he's actually a better offensive player than he is. I know. That's the weirdest thing about the dialogue about him. I don't know why it is. It's because he wins face-offs. Yeah. But like if you gave Bo Horvett traditional second line center deployment, he's probably a 70-point guy.
Starting point is 00:43:13 Right. Especially because he's P.P.1 at the bumper. But like, you know, he's probably a really productive five-on-five piece. if he's not just destroyed matchup-wise every night. And, you know, using the Pedersen line straight up, I mean, that is, the Connects have to find a way to do that on a regular basis if they're going to be a team that, like, controls play and wins games the way that, you know, I think Green would prefer to win games
Starting point is 00:43:38 by actually controlling them. That said, in a world where Jake Vertan is on the Pedersen line, there's no way. There's no way that line's playing matchup minutes with Jake Fertan on it. Like, it's just not happening. So, you know, I do think that it's going to be fascinating to see how they attack this. And I wouldn't be stunned, honestly. When it comes down to it, the Canucks probably play Possum a little bit like they did against Vegas.
Starting point is 00:44:03 And, you know, that's not an ideal way to play when your best players are Hughes and Pedersen. But I kind of think that's the hand they're likely to be dealt when the season begins. I mean, I think that's kind of a slippery slope. Like, it just. It is. It's, I love the idea, especially when you come to playoff matchups of like that chess match of like last change and dictating who's playing against Hugh and trying to get your, you know, your defensive players out against other teams, best players. But then the problem with that is if one team is just like, okay, we're going to get our best players out at all times. And then you're stuck being like, okay, we're going to get our worst players out there more because we need them to match up with your best players.
Starting point is 00:44:44 Then all of a sudden you have, Alas Patterson just glued to the bench, especially if you're like taking penalties. and he's not killing them. Totally. You're just going like seven minutes of game time without him being on the ice, which is just like a hockey travesty. You have to be careful. Yeah. You have to be careful.
Starting point is 00:44:57 But again, I think good coaches are aware of that and figure it out and find ways to avoid that trap of being a little too matchup heavy, right? Like anything else, it's a balance. But, you know, Green typically does like his matchups. I think that, you know, unless they like re-sign Josh Livo and he's back, to being what he was before the before the injury and they can play josh levo on the horvett line and then you can play peterson straight up because he's got brock bessor on the wing i mean unless that sort of
Starting point is 00:45:30 chain of events occurs i just don't see how the connects can play peterson straight up in a world where his line mates are j t miller and and uh jake for ten and like i just don't think that that's going to be something the Canucks do, frankly. Yeah, I mean, that is the most fascinating question to me about this team in terms of how they do take the next step or how they get better, because you need to kind of find that nice balance of maintaining the efficiency, which both Hughes and Patterson definitely had in terms of their per 60s, but also then ramping up that volume. And I think the good parallels, like, I guess what the Leafs did with Austin Matthews, where under Babcock, he was playing like 17 and 9.000. half in his first year then like 18 then 18 and a half and last year when sheldon keith took over he played
Starting point is 00:46:18 i would have written down here he played 21 31 in 41 in 48 games under sheldon keith and that was his age 22 season last peterson turns 22 in november peterson he's not going to play 21 and a half minutes no but he does play a lot what's it 18 and a half last year 18 and a half but but look at the playoff numbers like he's pretty you're right though he is at the end of the day not used as much as Hort Badder Miller. Like, he was third on the team. And the reason why I bring that up is I was doing a thought exercise of like, I hate it when people online are like, this guy's so underrated or like,
Starting point is 00:46:50 this guy's a top 10 player at his position. Then you're like, hey, let's look, I'm sorry about all my John Klingberg standing. Yeah, let's quantify. Let's actually go through it. And I was going through the centers. And like without ranking them specifically, I was just like, how many guys would I certainly take ahead of Eli As Pedersen? Oh, it's not.
Starting point is 00:47:06 It's like five or six names. It's like five or just in terms of like next year, not in terms of like next year, Not in terms of... Who was the sixth? Okay, well, for sure. Go McDavid McKinnon. Yep. Eichel.
Starting point is 00:47:18 Yep. I have brain point. Okay. And then Matthews? Yeah, I think Matthews. Yeah. And then, but then you get into like... Shades.
Starting point is 00:47:32 Well, I actually think we're already at Shades. Like... Leon Drysaitle. The Canucks won, yeah. The Canucks won the series, but like you can't come away from it thinking Ryan O'Reilly's not a superior player. At this point, it was... career.
Starting point is 00:47:43 Oh my God. Ryan O'Reilly's. I take Ryan O'Reilly over most of the guys on that list. He's an insane six-game performance. Yeah, yeah. No. And so you have a lot of players. Ryan O'Reilly picks his teeth with the bones of elite NHL centerman.
Starting point is 00:47:57 It's unbelievable. So as a cop-out, I'm going against what I just said, but I basically came up with like 15 names, and I think, Eliza Patterson is definitely in there. And it's a great list to be a part of. But so when you look at that, it's like, okay, he probably needs to be playing more. considering how good he is and how awesome he looked in the postseason. And that's how this team gets better because his on-ice impact right now is probably not going to get that much better.
Starting point is 00:48:23 It's just a matter of getting him out there more, I think. Yeah, I think you're right. He took a big step as a two-way piece in year two. I think Hughes helped with that, but I think there was more to it than that. And I do think that overall with where his game's at, you know, more to think. defensive responsibility, more matchup responsibility, straight up deployment, playing late in games. Like, that has to happen. That has to happen. Period. Yeah. You can't be like, oh, we're going to, we're milking this lead.
Starting point is 00:48:55 Our best player will not be on the ice. Yeah, no. I guess the capitals have done that for, well, but it's a tiny different. They did that early in the season and then kind of stopped. But it's like, net's empty. It's Bohoravut out there. Well, Louis Erickson's out there. Yeah, Louis Erickson's the closer. But like last shift, you know, it's Brandon Sutter and Bo Horvette over the boards to, you know, at some point, it's got to be Pedersen. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:19 He's actually really good defensively. So, you know, it's, yeah, you're right. It's Petey time. Like, it has to be Petey time for this team if they're going to, in any way, play to the level that they managed in the bubble next season. Yeah. Well, I think with Hughes as well. Like, if you look at his usage. Was he not there?
Starting point is 00:49:40 Was he not there? Well, he wasn't during the regular season. He was after December, though. Right. If you look at the splits, like, it was right around Christmas that he started really playing matchup minutes. Right. And then in the playoffs, of course. You know, he's still not their first choice matchup guy because he's got some defensive zone issues.
Starting point is 00:50:01 But so to Schmidt. Literally every defenseman has defensive zone issues. When people are like, oh, look at this highlight of this guy getting burned. And it's like if you're in your own zone, chances are you're probably going to mess up. Well, this is like, you know, the draft, remember when they had drafts in person? Yeah. You know what the draft? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:17 You know what the draft before the draft starts? They play like all the best goals of the year. Right. And it's like the highlights really aren't about the play. It's just like every goalie who had a bad season on loop. Yeah. Like is the guy. And it's because like every defenseman gets burned.
Starting point is 00:50:34 It's not a highlight unless they also beat the goalie. Yeah. And so like I remember. I just remember the 2012 draft in Pittsburgh was my first one, and it was like every single goal was scored on Dwayne Rollison. It's just like, this is cruel. Every star player in the league had a highlight real goal against Wayne Rollison. Oh, that's a throwback. All right.
Starting point is 00:50:56 Is there anything else on the Canucks? I mean, no, I think we've given it a nice college try, really analyzed their offseason. I think, look, long term, right? Long term, this team's biggest cap crunch was probably coming this offseason anyway, right? Because of some of the contracts that they'd committed themselves to. A lot of that money will be hurtled in the next year or two.
Starting point is 00:51:21 And the problem is that Pedersen and Hughes and maybe Demco are just going to get, you know, 10xed in terms of their cap hits, and that's going to make it really difficult. Like this team's task now is getting both deeper and better and cheaper all at once. And that's a really tough trick to pull off. We've seen teams do it.
Starting point is 00:51:40 But when you look at the Schmidt acquisition, like long term, when we look at this offseason for the Canucks, I do think we'll probably think that, you know, they probably sidestepped some landmines, some deals that are going to look tough on the back end of the deal. I think we might look at it and say they missed an opportunity to take a big step forward in the last year of Pedersen and Hughes's ELCs. Like maybe they missed the first part of their, you know,
Starting point is 00:52:05 a contending win. I think we may think that. And I do think, too, though, we'll probably look back at three, four years when Pedersen and Hughes are both squarely in their prime and think, you know, they did manage to find a piece in Natchement who's, you know, part of what the next true contending Canucks team, you know, Ices. And those are sort of the three. Like, I always try and keep my eye on the big picture and not get caught down in the discussion of the day. Like when I think about it, I think those are the three things that will take from this off season when we look back on it three, four years hence, aside from the fact that we were all in masks and miserable. Right. You know, are the fact that they added a really good top four piece and managed upgrade there.
Starting point is 00:52:50 They may have missed the first window of their, you know, their first window for them to really ice a competitive team. And that, you know, that's unfortunate considering what's coming down the pike. in terms of their second contract negotiations, or in Demko's case, the third contract negotiations, which are going to be super difficult, especially in a world where Demko continues the rise that he began during that playoff series.
Starting point is 00:53:17 Are you ready to deal with a million radio and article conversations of, can you win when you have players making $10 million? Oh, man. It's like the worst, most lazy conversation in hockey. And everyone just ignores that Nikita Kuturov made $10 million? Is that the idea? It's a good thing to have problems worth, players worth 10 million. How about the team that made the Cup final with like $17 million tied up in two thirds of their top line that did nothing, five on five?
Starting point is 00:53:47 And they still manage, like, you know what I'm saying? You do, you do. We don't talk about that enough, right? No, we don't. But you do need to, you do need to be smarter when you have players making that much in terms of like your margin for error decreases so much. I think where like What helps to have a $4.25 million top pair defensemen and another top pair
Starting point is 00:54:11 defenseman on their entry level contract like Dallas did. Yeah. And like Hins and Gerya and Al were like their best offensive players during season. Yeah. Hins is unreal. Hints should be offer sheeted by the way. HINC is on my very obvious offer sheet candidates list. All right.
Starting point is 00:54:27 Well, let's use as an opportunity then to pivot and talk about some of the stuff going on around the league. and I guess frame it as moves left on the board are sort of situations worth monitoring. Yeah. With Vegas, you know, they obviously move Stasney's contract to Winnipeg. They move the Schmidt deal to the Canucks.
Starting point is 00:54:48 Still need to do something. That was such a nice little negotiating tactic. Like, oh, no, we're going to bring back. We're going to do Flurry Leonard to start next year. I mean, I guess with the way, with the going rate and where are things going, like, maybe they just legitimately do not want to give up what it takes for someone to eat Flurry's contract. Yeah. It's that dire. I think, I think it's wild how difficult it's proven to move cap space.
Starting point is 00:55:18 Like, you think about the Jake Allen deal, the Nick Buegstad deal, and the Mark Stahl deal. Like, I thought we'd see more of that. And when I look around the league at Arizona, like Arizona is who. Yeah. Right? They are hooped. I mean, they're completely, they're completely fucked. I think we don't talk enough about the situation that was inherited by Armstrong.
Starting point is 00:55:43 Oh. Oh. No picks. So bad. No picks. Your captain gives you a deadline to trade them. Yeah. Your top free agent, like you're never going to retain them, obviously, Hall leaves.
Starting point is 00:55:55 Yeah. You mentioned no picks. They didn't have a pick in the top 11, I believe. You're also over, you're over, like you're over the cap. Yes. You're over the cap. And there's no, there's no like, also every single one of their players, basically, has already been paid a bonus. So all of the guys that you could move to shed cap space are the guys that you probably want to keep to reduce your payroll.
Starting point is 00:56:23 Yeah. Right? So it's like the only guy who's dollar for dollar like making what his cap hit is, it is Alex Gologoski. He was like their number one D last year in terms of ice time. Yeah. But it's going to come down to like moving a Gologoski or a Schmaltz. Like because you have to move good players. You can't move the guys further.
Starting point is 00:56:43 Like a Derek step. No one is knocking down the door for Derek Step on at this point. Nick Schmaltz maybe. But even that deal is tough to move. Like they're going to have to move someone really good here. They don't even have anyone really good. No, they don't. No, you know what?
Starting point is 00:57:00 I like some of their pieces. They do, but they have so much money tied up and like Christian Dvorak and Christian Fischer. I like Christian Dvorak. I was about to come back with I like Christian Dvorak as like a third line center. You know? Yeah. Overall, like I think he's a nice piece.
Starting point is 00:57:16 But, you know, it's weird because at the same time that I look at Arizona's books and think they're hooped. I also liked how they played. Like, I know they got demolished, like unceremoniously demolished by that Avstein. But I kind of feel like they bumped into the wrong matchup for them. Like I do think that they... They bumped in the Nathan McKinnon. Yeah, they bumped into Nathan McKinnon.
Starting point is 00:57:35 I do kind of think that on some level, like, and let's not forget, Nathan McKinnon almost won three games in a row against the team that won the West with Michael Hutchinson in that. I do kind of think that they had a chance to be Islanders West, if not for bumping into the team that obviously was going to punish their sort of gimmicky defense. But, you know, they have good speed up front. They have a good blue line, but they're going to have to do massive surgery. Tampa Bay, they can't even get their players claimed on waivers.
Starting point is 00:58:06 And they're good players. Like, you know, I mean, you look at those two teams. You look at the New York Islanders. They have to give up Devon Taves. Like, Devon Taves is their most dynamic defenseman. I know Pulek's got the overall defense and Adam Pellix got the sort of sturdy two-way brainiac thing going. But, like, Devin Taves was their most dynamic defensemen in the playoffs. And they had to trade him for two seconds.
Starting point is 00:58:29 Like there is so much pain coming as teams work to get below the cap. And I'm stunned that aside from Stahl, Bugstad and Jake Allen, we just haven't seen a ton of deals redistributing cap space from teams that are, you know, dealing with those issues. I guess I'm just interested if there is legitimately going to be a takeaway from this or as soon as we resume normal life, whatever that is, and the cap starts to go back up, teams are just going to be like,
Starting point is 00:59:01 let's just give bottom six guys four-year deals again. Oh, yeah, yeah, that's going to happen. People are going to forget. First off season. It's, I mean, my God. We haven't seen any of that, though, really, right? Like, we've seen two-year deals. Yeah, yeah, everyone's in two-year deals.
Starting point is 00:59:15 Yeah. Or, like, backloaded deals, yeah. Yeah, we're going to be back in a Tyler Pitlick for, you know, four years, 12 million. For sure we are. For sure. I mean, the Islanders have nine mill in room. They still have to sign bars,
Starting point is 00:59:29 Alan Bullock. Like, as soon as the, uh, Devontase deal happened, it was like, oh, well, there's a boy chuck deal coming as well,
Starting point is 00:59:35 but man, like six million for two years. That's, but six million for two years. Like, I just, you know, as I went over earlier,
Starting point is 00:59:42 like, market value for that would indicate first plus. Based on the Marlowe and the, the Marlough comp. I mean, stall obviously went for a second, and that's five, seven and,
Starting point is 00:59:52 and less salary. but nonetheless, like, market value for that starts at a first-round pick. Yeah, but I think Boychuk only makes like $5.25 million total or something in terms of real money. And I'm just like, why weren't the senators? But that's high. Oh, 5.2 in total. Total for like over those years. But Erickson only makes five.
Starting point is 01:00:15 Yeah. But like, so like Nick Letty's been a trendy, like, and like Nick Lettie's still like better or more useful than Zag Boychuk. But like he's making 13.5 million over the. next two years in terms of real dollars. Right. No one is taking that. I don't think so, no. So it's really tough.
Starting point is 01:00:30 Not without sweeteners, man. No one, no one's been willing to pay the freight. And we haven't seen Detroit. Like, we know Detroit's going to, we know Detroit would take on more. But they're going to exact a pound of flesh to do it. Teams are, this is going to happen. I think it's going to be a long, it's going to be like a long staring contest over the winter as like pressure mounts on various GMs.
Starting point is 01:00:54 from ownership groups and the season goes along and second contract guys remained unsigned. You know, like it's going to be a cold war this winter with teams waiting to offload, you know, bloated contracts and a few GMs like Eiserman, Pierre Dorian, just sort of wait. St. Louis is the one I'm watching for because it's kind of more low-key, but like teams need. need to be circling bin's done right now as an offer sheet candidate sir knack man sernak is the guy i'm i'm big on team like you could get surnaq for a 2021 second round pick i'm convinced to this yeah you cannot tell me that why that the tampa bay lightning would match one year times four two having to give him a four point two million dollar offer sheet um qualifying
Starting point is 01:01:52 offer next year like you go short on him yeah and they are hooped I mean that's just that's just how I see it like I don't see how they can responsibly match that year we just dance every year it's like oh this guy needs to be offer sheet no but this year it's different because of the flat gap it is I think I think it might be the opposite I think teams are like so scared right now of doing like anything financially that right it's just leading to this kind of gridlock but that's why you go with the one year deal no no weird signing bonus or anything I mean maybe you maybe you Maybe it's all signing bonus. Maybe you go four to, like three, two, so that they have to pay a bunch of millions up front.
Starting point is 01:02:29 But it's like, I just don't see how they can match that with what it would do their books long term. Like if they had a $4.2 million offer sheet for a second pair of defenseman next year, like, because they do it every year. I mean, it's just, I can't be convinced it wouldn't work is really what it comes down to. Like it would work. It's such a while of time. Like, the fact that Getty Dadenov just signed five by three with Ottawa. senators, which implies that that was the best he was going to get. Why?
Starting point is 01:02:57 Because he signed with Ottawa? Yeah. You think the senators were number one on his list of destination? No, probably not. He's a really good fit for them, though. If he did not go, he was Googling. Has the KHL season started yet? He's like, oh, shit.
Starting point is 01:03:10 Yeah. Well, and, you know, Fgeny Datenov, like, lives in Sunny Isles, which is, like, a big, vibrant Russian expat community in, in South Florida. Like, I'm sure he loves it there. and well I know he loves it there. I think he loved receiving passes from Jonathan Hubert.
Starting point is 01:03:27 And having Sasha Barkoff backchecked. Yeah. Evgeny Dadenov, though, wins a ton of battles along the wall, and he goes hard to the net. Like, he does all of the stereotypical North American, like, valued things, and he's really productive as a result.
Starting point is 01:03:45 Like, if you put him with Brady Kachuk, they're going to be a nightmare for people to contain off. Offensively or yeah contained defense well but he's a good player and this is like you know That third year for Ottawa it's like whatever like they're not not gonna worry about the cap anyways At least they're getting a good player that you know is gonna help them but also becomes an asset at some point if money does Increase whereas like some of their moves before it's like oh or just accumulating Eric Good Branson and Josh Brown and Austin Watson's like wow I forgot they got good Branson
Starting point is 01:04:15 What a what a way that it's like when we were talking about the cadux earlier it's like teams that are bad view it as a license it's like it doesn't matter what we do because we're going to be bad right now it's like no this is your time to like be taking home run swings and try it's like when the canucks was it 2017 when it's like their big moves were signing sam ganier michael del zato and and andrews nielsen and it's like i remember at the time people were like it doesn't matter they're not going to be good for a couple more years it's like so why are you just literally throwing money away just sign someone who might be flipped into an asset at some point right sign someone good yeah and if getting it down is good if getting out of It was really good.
Starting point is 01:04:50 It's a good player. Yeah, and at a reasonable term and a reasonable, a reasonable cap hit. Look, Evgeny Dadov, I think is going to be a nice fit for that team. That team also, like, they're annoying to play against, but I will say I don't think they have enough mobility on the right side of their defense core with Zytezv, good Branson, and Brown. You know, I like Brownie a ton as a person, but I don't know the other guys. You're being such a media guy?
Starting point is 01:05:17 Huh? You're being such a media guy? No, that's a former PR guy. Like Brownie's actually someone I really like. But he, yeah, I mean, I don't know. Don't get emotionally involved. I'm not emotionally involved so much as I'm just thinking about how many times teams are going to dump it in to the left corner. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:36 Against the Ottawa Senator's defense and the puck's just going to get chopped in half. All right. All right. Let's get out of here. Joey, my dog's being kind of annoying. He's getting restless. He's moving around the house, chewing on stuff. It's awesome.
Starting point is 01:05:49 But I'm glad you got to meet him. Me too, man. And I'm glad we got to do this show. I'm glad you're back. Yeah, I'm glad to be back. And I'm glad you're in my neighborhood. And I'm feeling guilty that I didn't bring you a housewarming gift. I didn't even think about it.
Starting point is 01:06:02 I was just like. Your presence on this podcast is housewarming gift enough. For sure. That is not nearly enough. I'll fix that in the weeks to come when we meet up for beers on a very regular basis. All right. Plug some stuff. Where can people find you?
Starting point is 01:06:17 What are you working on? Come read The Athletic. Subscribe to the Athletic Vancouver. We've got a sale of some kind on at all moments. So check that out. I've got a really good piece up today, actually, taking you inside a week of carnage for the Vancouver Canucks and Free Agency. And then listen to TSN 1040.
Starting point is 01:06:36 I'm there on a regular basis. All right. All right. As Joe, yes. Vancast. I also have my own podcast. The Vancast with J-Pat and Drancer. All right.
Starting point is 01:06:44 As Joey scurries away to the single. know then in this podcast. We'll be back soon. Thanks for taking the time, man. My pleasure, man. Before we get out of here, I just want to quickly thank everyone for listening to today's show and to remind those of you that haven't yet for whatever reason that you can help support the PDO cast by leaving us a rating and review for the show. It's really easy to do. It only takes a minute or two year time. It's really simple and straightforward, and it goes a long way towards helping the show and also means a lot personally to me. I love seeing the comments there of people making jokes about the show and even some sincere ones about what you
Starting point is 01:07:19 appreciate about the show, what you like, what it means to you. I really love seeing that stuff. And thank you to all of those of you who have done so already. And if you're busy for whatever reason, you just don't feel like getting into it. You can just click the five stars and that helps as well. So really appreciate that. We will be back next week with some new shows. We're getting on a bit of a role here, a bit of a role here, a bit of a
Starting point is 01:07:43 rhythm and I'm really enjoying it really been enjoying being back on the grind putting out new shows working with the Blue Wire podcast network you can go back and listen to the shows we've done this off season already everything you need to know about the draft we did a mock draft and we did analysis afterwards with with will scouch you can go and listen to the pre-agency sort of instant reaction slash winners and losers with don lusitian and alison lukan And yeah, we're going to get into the meat of the offseason here. We're going to do a fun series I've got lined up called the rebuildables, where we're going to deep dive the seven teams that didn't qualify for the playoff bubble this year
Starting point is 01:08:25 and kind of look at how they got to where they are and how they get out of that situation and turn things around and get back on the upswing and get back to being contending teams. And then eventually we'll see. We're not sure when games are going to start and it could be a long offseason. So at some point we're going to bring back and dust off. the rewatchable series we were doing when the quarantine first started and always taking suggestions and nominations of games that you'd like us to cover for that as well. So I'm really looking forward to it. We're going to do some fun stuff. The off season provides us with an opportunity
Starting point is 01:08:59 to kind of get creative and get fun and talk about big picture, more philosophical stuff, as opposed to the grind of just analyzing specific games and teams. So I'm really looking forward to all that. Thanks to everyone again for listening. and supporting the show, and we will be back soon. Here is the outro music.

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