The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 383: Blockbuster Breakdown

Episode Date: January 27, 2021

Alison Lukan and Murat Ates join the show to discuss the blockbuster trade between the Blue Jackets and Jets, how Pierre-Luc Dubois and Patrik Laine will fit with their new teams, and how they can get the most out of them moving forward. Topics include: The timeline leading up to the trade What the market was actually like for Dubois Why Jarmo Kekalainen made the move Why the Jets were the perfect trade partner How much of PLD's rep as a player is deserved How his passing is a great fit next to Jets shooters Whether he'll be able to improve their team defense Where things went wrong for Laine in Winnipeg What's to blame for the dip in his shooting % How CBJ can get his shot back to where it was Whether CBJ's system can cover for his limitations How they can get the most out of his tools Winners and losers of the trade The next contract for both Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Are you ready for the most ridiculous internet sports show you have ever seen? Welcome to React, home of the most outrageous and hilarious videos the web has to offer. So join me, Rocky Theos, and my co-host, Raiders Pro Bowl defensive end, Max Crosby, as we invite your favorite athlete, celebrities, influencers, entertainers in for an episode of games, laughs, and, of course, the funniest reactions to the wildest web clips out there. Catch React on YouTube, and that is React, R-E-A-X-X. Don't miss it. This podcast episode is brought to you by Coors Light.

These days, everything is go, go, go. It's non-stop hustle all the time. Work, friends, family. Expect you to be on 24-7? Well, sometimes you just need to reach for a Coors Light because it's made to chill. Coors Light is cold-loggered, cold-filtered, and cold-packaged. It's as crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. It is literally made to chill.

Coors Light is the one I choose when I need to unwind. So when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart. Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. Progressing to the mean since 2015, it's the HockeyPedioCast. With your host, Dimitri. Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast.

My name is Demetri Filipovich. as I'm sure you've heard by now, we had a blockbuster trade this weekend that we've been waiting for. We decided to wait a couple days to do a show about it. And one of the perks of that was that it gave us time to let more information come out, gave us a chance to do some canvassing around the league to try and paint a clear picture of what happened here. And now we're going to try to put it all together and do that. We're going to deep dive the living hell out of that trade with the two people most well equipped in my mind to intelligently discuss it from both sides.

it's Allison Lucan and Maradettech. What's going on, guys? Hi, hello, happy to be here. Let's get right into this. We've been planning this for a while. There's so much to get into it. I feel like with any really good trade, there's so many layers to discuss.

So I thought we could just kind of peel them back one by one and get right into it. And I think the natural starting point for us is the timeline of it all. And I genuinely, and Allison, I think you're going to be, I want you to answer this, but I'm going to kind of kind of, to sort of lay out what I got a sense of. It felt like, you know, I genuinely believe that Yarmorke

Kleinan was comfortable waiting this one out and seeing how the year played out. I think there's very few GMs in the league that have a longer leash than him when it comes to job security at the moment and it's well deserved based on what he's done with his Columbus Blue Jackets franchise over the past couple years. So it felt like he was planning on taking this thing to the offseason, if need be, kind of biding his time and waiting for the right offer to materialize. I think similar to what Joe Sackick did to great success when people were sort of wondering when he was going to trade Matt Dushain and waiting for it to happen. And finally, something good came along and he pounced and it wound up being the right decision. But I feel like on Thursday, last Thursday, it became

such a circus with Dubois shift kind of going viral in the first period and the subsequent benching. And I think they realized after that that they couldn't really dress him moving forward. And so him sitting in the press box was not only a distraction for everyone involved, but it was also her his own trade value. And so I think Yarmou kind of looked around with a fresh pair of eyes and all of a sudden realized that things weren't going to get better. And that's why the timing of this trade happened the way it did. Yeah. I mean, I think you nailed it. I think that, you know, this was an organization that for right or wrong reasons has had to go through this kind of a situation in the past. And I'm not pointing any fingers here at all, but to get through this, all parties involved need to be able to separate, obviously the

emotional impact of something like Pierre-Luc Dubois decision and then performance and putting that all together. And I just think this situation wasn't as tenable with the players involved this time. And so, yeah, it was funny. By the time these past two games were done, many of us were like, oh, yeah, and there was a game because the layers upon layers were quite interesting. This was a request that came out of left field for myself personally, and I think for most even all the way up to the hockey insiders. So we may never know why, but it's, it's certainly been an interesting, what now, six weeks since this all came to bear from Pierre-Luc Dubois's decision. Well, I'm not a big body language guy. I think sometimes especially

we can incorrectly attribute laziness to bigger, kind of lankier players because of their skating style. And I think it's unfair. Like, they just move around differently than a max effort, like five-nine guy. It just always looks like they're skating so hard out there. But I honestly thought watching the first game against the wings, actually. It was the Maddenay game, and it was the only one on. I kind of noticed, I was like, wow, he really seems like he's kind of on cruise control here where he was just skating laps in the offensive zone. But I think the ironic part of that is that was the game that he scored a breakaway goal after in the third period. I sort of showed his talent and how maybe you should overreact to effort, or maybe your eyes are kind of deceiving you. But

obviously it kind of came to a head after. And I think that's what sort of complicated this matter entirely where it was just so hard to read into what was going on, just purely watching him on the ice. Yeah, you know, I think that what's interesting, regardless of where this player is right now, what's most interesting for him and his biggest challenge is that he now has shown what we all saw in the playoffs last whatever time of year time is a flat circle, but when there were playoffs last, I think we saw Pierre-Luc Dubois at 100. I think we saw the potential that probably Yarmalkekelainen and his staff and other front offices have seen in the player. And I say this with respect.

I think this is a fair path of development. That wasn't what we have seen in Columbus consistently for three seasons. Now, he's been a significant part of this team. But because we finally saw Pierre-Luc Dubois at 100, now when he's at 70%, or say, 80%, to your point, I think that the gaps look. far more noticeable, even above, you know, what you were saying about his stature and his frame. And, you know, I think this has been, in my opinion, take away the fighting and the public, whatever people want to put out on Twitter. I think this is what Torts has been trying to do

with the player is that he sees what this guy can do. And it's almost beyond frustrating to him to not see a player reach his full potential. Now, we could debate the methods therein all day. it's a very open and honest locker room, so I don't think that it's anything he wouldn't do to any other player. But I think that's the problem we have here is how much was this trade request impacting Pierre Luke Dubois in and of itself? And now, because people have seen what it is he truly can do when he's one million percent on, everything else looks less, right? And so that that gap is what people are going to measure now because his big time debut happened on the international stage. Everyone was watching. And so now everyone knows what he can be. So he's got to work to be

at that level, game in and game out. Well, I guess, you know, I was asking around in this gap between when the trade happened and when we're recording here about kind of trying to get a better feel for what the market was like and sort of get a better sense of what the options were for Yarmot. And what I kept getting back was, you know, a lot of teams were obviously very interested every team. Like it's every GM's job to do their due diligence and at least check in and see what's going on. But it felt like what I kept coming back to was it never really got that far into the process for anyone under than Winnipeg because, you know, I think the media tried to make it seem like

it was this hotly contested bidding war, especially on Friday night. I was like, ooh, this could really come down to the wire. They're Yarmou's calling teams and letting them know they're out of contention. And I think teams inquired. I think Yarmel understandably realized he had a very valuable asset and he was aggressive out of the gate asking for it, asking for a lot in return, whether it was an initial. Suzuki or we heard the Tampa Bay was interested and he was asking for Anthony Sirelli. And so I think good teams didn't have a ton of appetite at the moment to deal with the logistics

of making a trade during this pandemic where it was like, okay, well, we're not going to have them for probably five to seven games because he's going to have to quarantine for two weeks. We're going to have to integrate them into our lineup and our team without any real practice time here. It's just going to be kind of a headache. And so for good teams, there wasn't a lot of incentive. Now, Marad, this is where you can come in. I think for Winnipeg, they were the unique case and kind of the best trade partner here for Columbus

because they clearly felt that they had, you know, Dubois fits a need for them. But I think they also felt that they had a similarly distressed asset in the sense that I think based on how the last negotiation went with Patrick Lainey, they felt like it wasn't a very palatable option for them to head into this offseason with him looking for another deal because either they wouldn't be able to afford it or he wouldn't want to sign with him long term. They'd be kind of doing this dance all over again. I imagine that was a big driving factor towards these two teams coming together where it felt like, okay, we both kind of have a problem here. Maybe we can help each other out and each get a fresh start. Yeah, it's funny that they would have so much in common, Columbus's situation and Winnipeg's

in having the distressed asset, in your words, the idea of, you know, we knew Patrick Lainey wanted out. But the difference here was that in Winnipeg, Patrick Lainey showed up and had one heck of a game excuse me, just clearing my throat, had one heck of a game to start the season. And despite his kind of laxadaisical press conference where he says, you know, I'm here, aren't I? He sort of showed up and was giving that, you know, one million percent buy in, at least on the ice. And so there was a sense in Winnipeg that, yes, Patrick Lining was going to be traded at some point. This was a situation that was going to come to a head. He has arbitration rights this summer. This summer he'll be two years away from unrestricted free agency.

And I continue to believe that that is his long-term hope, is to move himself towards unrestricted free agency, regardless of the relationships that he's able to build in Columbus. But because he comes in and plays like he does, I don't think Winnipeg was in a rush to consummate the deal. At the same time, though, as soon as the Pierre-Luc Dubois situation came to a head, I'm under the impression Winnipeg was a frontrunner from the beginning. I mean, I think the conversations were multiple weeks at length, is my present understanding of this situation.

And if you Yarmal Kekalainen and you're sitting on an offer that could include Patrick Lining and Jack Roslovick, I mean, that's a heck of a floor. You can take that to Montreal. You can take that to Tampa Bay. You can take that around the league and say, beat this. And I think a lot of teams around the league are going to say, well, no, we're okay. We can sit out of that one because that's an extremely high floor of assets coming back for Columbus. Well, and Allison, I feel like, you know, the teams that I kept coming back to that made sense for as a trade partner here were the teams of the ilk of Ottawa or L.A. or Anaheim as they were rumored to be in it because they don't necessarily care that much about this season. So it doesn't ultimately matter how long that integration process is, how much time you're giving it away without, or presumably what's going to be one of your best players in Pierre-Luc Dubois as soon as he enters your lineup. And so for them, they could kind of afford to use this as a sort of a trial period. season to integrate them. But what I kept coming back to was, okay, well, those teams are kind of

bad for a reason and then in this position and they don't really have, you know, they're not necessarily super interested in trading a bunch of futures because who knows when they're going to be good. And they don't have a lot of really good present day young players that they can offer Columbus because they're bad for a reason at this point. And so I feel like Columbus really didn't want to kind of throw in the towel on the season because they clearly feel like they have a very competitive group and they want to take a run at it. And so getting a guy like line A that can step right in and be an instant contributor, while also not necessarily sacrificing future value,

was I imagine a big selling point for them in this trade. Yeah, I'm of the exact same opinion. You know, we saw those kind of final three teams circling around. You're out, oh, let me come back with a better offer. And teams like Anaheim just didn't make sense to me, for the reasons you say, I couldn't see the pieces coming back that would allow Columbus to stay on a pattern of growth. This is not a group that is ready to say in any way, shape, or form we're hitting the pause

button or we're doing any form of rebuild in any way. They have a significant chunk of players coming up for new contracts in the next two years. And so they either need to maximize those assets and or find ways to continue to convince those assets that they want to sign with Columbus and be part of what is being built here. And even if they do, even if it's a player like Seth Jones, as we all know, these guys don't have windows of double-digit years. So those partners didn't make sense because, yeah, and even the guy like Zagoras or something like that,

it's not what they need right now, which is, as you said, right now help. I'm not really interested in speculating about kind of like what happened to the relationships and why these trades happened the way they did. I'm much more interested in getting right into, as the nature of this podcast is, getting into the X's and O's and kind of nerding out on what the fits are going to be like and what's going to happen here. And so I think let's start with Pierrotubah and sort of what he brings to the table

and his fit with the Jets because, Alison, I think the strangest part of this entire process for me since the moment that Pier Luke Dubois's name came up in trade rumors and whether he was going to be available or whether he was going to stay a long term in Columbus, it felt like he was just like everyone was so quick to label him as this, no doubt about it,

two-way center, which implies to me that he's really good at defense as well as offense. And that's certainly a rep he's been given early in his career. I think the strange part for me there is if you look at a lot of the underlying numbers and the data, it doesn't really back that up necessarily. It seems like a lot of his success, and there's certainly a ton of it, comes from his ability to playmake to create scoring chances for his team as opposed to shutting the other team down on the other end of the ice.

And those two things are certainly interlocked, and one kind of, you can't take one without the other. But it feels like the rep in terms of who he is as a player was kind of miscast a little bit in his evaluation of what he actually brings to the table as a trade asset. Yeah, I think it's an interesting question. And this is one of those times when you have to look to usage a little bit because we all remember the narrative after Pierre Luc Dubois's first two years, which is, well, how convenient you come into the league and you have Artemey Panarin on your left for 82 games a season plus. And look, we know what kind of a player Artemey Panarin is. And I say that with the highest of praise. That was not a line that was put out with defensive responsibility. They were going to go out.

They were going to try and drive offense. Then Panarin leaves. And last year, you see Dubois shift into being asked to be more defensive to play more of a puck carrying role when they were in transition. So I think, and he had shared, and I don't think this is, I'm not saying this for any sort of gossip perspective, I think a lot of players on the Blue Jackets felt this way, he wanted to be able to be more open offensively. He wanted to feed that side of his game more. So I think his usage plays a part,

particularly in his first two years. And I think last year, again, maybe they were let loose that line a little bit more when they were desperate for the scoring, add in the tremendous amount of injuries, and Pierre-Luc Dubois's wingers perhaps being on more of a rotating basis than usual. I think this is a powerful guy, two-way. But is he at an, elite level yet. No, that's not to say he can't be, but definitely has leaned more on the offensive side and wanting to create these early three years in his career. Well, yeah, the defensive impacts aren't the way you think they'd be just based on

the way he's talked about, which isn't certainly he's 22 years old. It's not to say that he isn't good defensively or he can't be good defensively. Just that we don't really know. I think you look at him and you're like, oh, he's a big center and he looks the part. And I think that goes a long way towards this evaluation, kind of this rep that's been bestowed on him. Now, you know, he does do a lot of things really well. He is an excellent puck carrier. He's a fantastic passer. He uses his big frame very functionally and effectively, most importantly. And Murad, I think he's going to be a terrific fit on this Jets team beyond the fact that you look

at their depth chart down the middle. And, you know, they've got Paul Stasney. He has this kind of one-year stop gap and we'll see what happens as he's a free agent next off season. But they really needed someone in the organization beyond Mark Schifley to have this kind of one-two punch. So not everything was on Shifley's shoulders. And I think just stylistically, he's going to be a terrific fit for them because of that passing surrounded by the, you know, plethora of shooting talent that this Jets team certainly boasts, especially on the wings. Absolutely. And that's why I like the trade for Winnipeg. I really do. Winnipeg has given up assets, three straight trade deadlines in an attempt to fill the hold of Pierre-Luc Dubois now fills. There was the 2018 deadline deal where Paul

Stastin became a Winnii jet for the first. time. That saw a good prospect in Eric Foley and a first round pick go out the door. 2019, Winnipeg tries to recreate the magic by trading for Kevin Hayes. A first round bit goes out the door in that trade as well. Comes back via the Jacob Truba trade, but it's still an asset out. And then in 2020, reeling as the Jets were, they also traded for Cody Eakin, who certainly wasn't a second line center. But this has been a situation whether Brian Little was healthy or not that Winnipeg has been trying to address for an extremely long time for that reason and you know earlier i called the situation unwinnable as recently as a couple of

months ago it became winnable when you find a fit as good as per luke dubois is on the middle even without line a there's still a tremendous amount of finishing talent on the wings kyle conner is a player that everybody knows about i assume your audience knows about nick eilers as well but if you're listening and you're considering nikolai euler is a secondary player amongst winnipeg's start studded offense change your perspective immediately he's a play driver a finisher and a creator of plays for his linemates as well so that's a tremendous amount of offensive firepower and this is this is what this trade really is about in a way for Winnipeg they're at this awkward stage in their development where for a couple straight seasons they've taken steps back from 2018 but they have a leadership group of

Blake Wheeler and Mark Sheifle who very much believe that this is a win now team how do you navigate that. How do you trade a 22-year-old budding star like Patrick Lainey get something back and still maintain something of a window to win? This Pierre-Luc Dubois acquisition is the only way that fits because for the moment they're overpowered at center

with Paul Stasney as an option behind him. Adam Lowry as well is going to be an unrestricted free agent this summer. It is the closest thing to a win now deal that could have been conceived for Winnipeg when this whole thing started. Here's my question though. I'm very curious to see how

tangibly he can improve their underlying numbers in a particular their defense because I think we'd agree that it's a pretty glaring need for this team right now. Last year, only the Blackhawks and the Rangers had a higher expected goals against total. Only the Blackhawks gave up more high danger chances against. And this year so far, I think the numbers are obscured a little bit by the fact that half of their games have come against the senators. But, you know, the other night they gave up just an obscene 21 high danger chances again. against to an Oilers team, and they got caved in recently by the Toronto Maple Leafs as well. And so I think, you know, logically you'd say, okay, well, having Pierraluke DuBah on this team

means they'll presumably have the puck more often, which means more time in the offensive zone, less time in the defensive zone, and that's going to have this kind of positive trickle-down effect. But I'm really curious to see how big of a sort of trickle-down or domino effect that's going to have on the rest of the team and their sort of underlying numbers as a whole, because I think that should be the biggest goal here beyond all the offensive stuff of getting the pucked, Nikolai Ehlers and sort of finding that magic between the two of them. Yeah, certainly his play will help.

And the question that you're asking is kind of to what degree. I think that Winnipeg could definitely use his strength and transition. That's an area where it's an instant upgrade for Winnipeg. I have tremendous things to say about Patrick Lainey's finishing talent. And I think systemically, with changes that have been made this season, because Winnipeg is well aware, has been well aware of the amount of high danger chances that they give up. And by real estate, that means a low slot center slot kind of opportunities. The adjustment that the Jets made this season in an attempt to curtail that

was instead of just when things kind of become a panic, dropping into that man-to-man formation with the center and two defensemen, which could end up cycling those players to as high as the top of the zone and then exposing the middle of the ice behind them because they're following their man as they're supposed to do, that was a big problem last year. Winnipeg's weak side wingers now are dropping into the slot, playing a little bit of a help zone there, adding a little bit of extra coverage.

And ironically, the first player who had a really effective shift doing that and making a stop was Patrick Lainey. So there's a little bit more defensive aspect of his game that I think he gets credit for sometimes, though, though, he's not a strong transition player. I do think, though, that your point that, you know, he's not going to be a panacea? Panacea? Oh, my goodness, pronunciation today. in terms of fixing what else Winnipeg is true the Jets defense continues to be outmatched that's definitely true and on the top line

I mean you referenced the you know Winnipeg getting caved in against the Edmonton Oilers where you had the Paul Stastany line going head to head with Leon Drysidal and having all kinds of success with the Paul Stastity line being Andrew Kopp and Nikolai Eilers on the wings that's a tremendous two-way line you can play against anybody it was Mark Sheifley going head to head with Connor McDavid

McDavid that really was left wanting And, you know, Mark Sheifley is one of the world's best offensive players. He certainly has the offensive game to be in the top center conversations in a lot of ways. But defensively, certainly, that's not the case yet, despite his verbal commitment to that sort of play. So admitting, I'll close this off by saying admitting that, you know, there are players like Connor McDavid who are going to make you look bad no matter who you are. I think that some players in really important positions in Winnipeg are offense first in that same way you sort of intimated that peer Luke Dubois might be at this stage of his career. So it's not going to fix everything by any stretch.

But I think Winnipeg will have the puck in dangerous areas a little bit more now than before. Yeah, I'm curious to see what he's going to look like in a new system. I think that's whenever that happens for a player of his caliber, it's always fascinating to see what happens with both their numbers and their rep. And also just the way they play, I think not having a shoulder as much of an offensive burden is going to help unleash him a little bit. Like Allison, I feel like two years ago, we sort of knocked him because it felt like he was just riding shotgun with her Demi Panarin and you're dismissing his offensive success because

it's like, oh, well, of course, if you're playing with one of the most dynamic and just creative playmakers in the game, you're going to have good offensive numbers. Last year, he had to do significantly more heavy lifting. And he actually, you know, it was Cam Atkinson, for example, whose numbers really dipped without having Panarin getting him the puck for Dubois. He certainly didn't have as much success, but he showed that he could kind of, you know, carry the burden himself. and now that he doesn't have to do as much for Winnipeg because they already do have at least one scoring line ahead of them, I imagine it'll help quite a bit in terms of allowing him to sort of freelance

and have more easier opportunities, not necessarily having to face the other team's top defensive unit every single night. Yeah, for sure. And again, the ask will be different from the coach as well, just in terms of how Columbus had to play last year. Recognized employees with Customink, show customer appreciation with Customs, Inc. Outfit your teams with Custom Ink. Easily add your logo to your favorite products and brands

at Customink.com. Make Custom Ink your custom gear partner with great customer service, quality products, and all in pricing, along with personalized help when you need it and an easy to use website when you don't. All backed by a 100% satisfaction guarantee. Do it all today at customink.com. particular to protect two young goaltenders that the organization wasn't sure they could trust just yet. And, you know, you point to even Pierre-Luc Dubois in a season where the blue jackets were just murdered from a shooting percentage perspective, which, you know, in part could be the lack of space that they were able to create without some talent gone. Pierre-Luc doesn't fall that far behind his rookie season. When everyone else was just bottoming out, he was still able to find ways to create.

And in a shortened season, was still getting that shot quality of his own. I do think we saw maturity in how the player had to play, not just in terms of what was asked of him, but in terms of his execution as well. All right. Let's pivot here to line A. And, you know, before we get into the fit with Columbus, Marat, one thing I'm really interested on the way out, you know, it certainly wasn't a secret that he wanted to play with an elite center. he wanted to play with Shifley. And Kevin Shevold Dayoff, I think it was either the exit presser or the intro to Dubois, was asked about this.

And he cited data about how, you know, the two of them playing together was just untenable for the team because it was so bad. And he's right. You know, the past two years, not counting this one, they played over a thousand five-on-five minutes together. And the team with those two out there had a 45% shot share, a 41% high-danger chance share, a 43% expected goal share. And they were able to outscore those problems

and outscore teams 5550 in those minutes just because of the two shooting talents involved and their ability to kind of skew the percentages. But when you have presumably two of your best, most highly paid player is playing out there at 5-on-5 and not being able to even stay afloat or be a net positive, that's a big issue. And so it was kind of ironic that it seemed like

this was something line I really wanted and they gave it a shot and it just didn't work. And he felt like he still wanted it even. even though, you know, there was no data to suggest that it was actually a pairing that could work either stylistically or just functionally. Yeah, it's such a fascinating thing because it depends really on what perspective you bring to those numbers as well. If you leave 2017, 2018 out of it and Linnae's rookie season out of it as well, and you just

look at the most recent two full seasons that we have to work with, the only combination of Mark Schifley that particularly worked was sheple. Shifley Wheeler and Nikolai Eelers in terms of chance generation and goal generation as well, in any sustainable sort of way. So I have plenty of time for the argument that Shifley and Linae weren't a tremendous fit together. And actually, I believe that to be the case as well. The only way I see those two players working together would be with a left wing who's just a possession dynamo, kind of Matthew Perrault in his prime as opposed to Matthew Pro for the last couple of seasons.

Meanwhile, it was a Connor Schifley line a combination they went to. And those are three offense-first players without tremendous defensive impacts, no matter which metrics you use. So it's, you know, I can stand with the conclusion that their analytics weren't good together is what Kevin Shevoldeoff said. And that's absolutely correct. Does that mean that it couldn't have worked together? Does that mean that there were contexts and approaches that couldn't have led those two players

to work together. I don't believe that necessarily because I think that they're simply too good and that there are other player types that may have been better compliments for them. In Winnipeg, you don't really see talent spread out into a top nine format too often where maybe a possession dynamo type player who doesn't have the offense will play with guys like that. It's traditionally been a top six and a checking line heading into this season. And so I guess I find the statement true. their analytics weren't good, but maybe the conclusion that there wasn't a fit on the ice available

a little bit more dubious. I mean, so where are we at right now in 2021 in terms of what type of situation Patrick Kleeney needs to be in or what type of player he needs to be with? Because I think people are under this kind of misguided impression that, oh, you know, he's going to hate it in Columbus because he's going from this open-ended freewheeling system in Winnipeg, where they score a ton of goals to this kind of shut it down defensive system where John Jordan-Roll is going to be asking him to do a ton. And I'm not necessarily sure that that's true because, you know,

for the past like two years at least, ever since they, or I guess last year specifically when they lost a ton of talent, you know, the role he was in and sort of how they were out of necessity being asked to play because their defensive talent in particular was so poor that it wasn't really the type of open-ended system. The line may thrive in.

And I think, Alison, And I'm kind of a bit more optimistic than others, I think, that line A might actually be just fine in Columbus because they do have a bunch of players that, you know, certainly aren't of the high skill level that Winnipeg has, but that can do sort of the little stuff in terms of puck retrievals, in terms of transition, in terms of getting him the puck quickly in space and the offensive zone that might actually help unleash his offensive game a little bit more than he was able to the past couple years in Winnipeg. Yeah, I agree. And I would first like to compliment Marat on saying dubious when we talk about Pierlouc Dubois, because I'm sure we've all seen the typos on Twitter, go rampant. But, but, you know, my ears certainly perked up when Marotte was describing, you know, what suits maybe an optimized Patrick Line A line. And we talk about that left side.

And that's where conversation comes to perhaps a player like Nick Falino, who is quietly putting together a really nice defensive game. Now, going into this season, the coach and the organization was really focused on getting Felino some more offensive production. But if his role is to provide the defensive touchstone to align with Max Domi and Patrick Line, I think that could work. And you are backed up by a really solid defensive system, you know, architected by assistant coach Brad Shaw, all of that to say that Patrick Line is coming in in a similar vein to how Artemie Pinaran was viewed when he joined the Blue Jackets. If you can score, if you can help drive our team forward, play how you'd like.

Like John Torturella does not want to take a thoroughbred and turn him into a plow horse. That is not what he's looking to do here at all. And I do think that the structure exists behind, both on the blue line and then around Patrick Line, that as long as he can get the puck, he's going to be set up for success more than a lot of people might think. Well, I think some perspectives important here. So since he entered the league, the only players with more goals than him are of Etchen, Matthews, Pastor Nat, Kucharov, Drey, and McDavid. And the first two years, he scored 80 goals on 445 shots, which is an 18% shooting percentage. The past two years, same volume of shots, but he scored only 58 goals, which came down to 12%. And while that would be a good mark for most players, I think it was a

departure from what we expected from this kind of revolutionary generational shotmaker that could completely break all the expected goals models and just score from distance, unlike anyone since really like peak Ilya Kovulchuk I think and so Marad you and I have had this discussion on this podcast before but now that the era in Winnipeg is done and you've had some chance to kind of reflect on it like what do we attribute that to because I still haven't had a satisfactory answer I think some possible conclusions are you know the talent around him deteriorated a little bit especially on the power play without Dustin Bufflin there as a shot threat and teams are able to key on him a bit more you know, he relied maybe a little bit too much on that shot making and never really explored getting

closer and more on the inside and kind of settled for those perimeter shots because he felt like he can make them. And when he does, it's a beautiful highlight reel, but it's not a super sustainable option. Like, what do we attribute that to? Because I think for Columbus, they're viewing this as, you know, this player could really help unlock our power play that we desperately need to create some easier offense. But then you look at his own data and he goes from 20 power play goals from that left flank to 15 to 7 over the past three years. And that's clearly a kind of a worrisome trend. So for Columbus, they need to figure out what went wrong there and how they can sort of reverse

that trend and get back to unlocking his shot as a real weapon. Yeah, absolutely. That is the question of lining his career thus far. These two seasons where he completely outperforms expected goals by an unbelievable amount, then kind of comes back down to earth and then looks like ever so slightly better. than average all of a sudden last season. That's definitely a concern. But I think that the big difference between the last time you and I had this conversation

and now for me personally is I went and I watched every shot attempt of his power play from the last couple of seasons. And you really do start to see the difference in shot quality created before the puck gets onto a stick in the Neil Pionk version of the Winnipeg Jets power play than before. And that's for two reasons. It's because Neil Pionk and not Dustin Bufflin, who had played slightly over half of 2018-19 and obviously none of the last season. When you have Bufflin at the top, you know the powerful shot is there. It stretches defenses a little bit, even if you know what's coming.

And if you have Blake Wheeler making that pass across, you know, just a slight change in stick position is making his opportunity to get across to Lina a little bit more easy. I shouldn't even say easy because there still sticks in the lane, but you've got Blake Wheeler as a playmaker and he excelled. in that particular role. So I think the quality of distribution that Lainé was receiving was no longer as otherworldly as his shot. And then similarly, that pass from the top that goes from Pionk to Linae has been a lot slower than the Buflin version as well,

and not a tremendous amount of assists off of Niel Pionk passes either. So specifically on the power play, I think you can look at some of the personnel changes combining with the fact that, okay, now there's really just Linae and Shiflea shooting threats, and it's a little bit easier for PKK to, Kean on. At even strength, though, you made a great point. Is he relying on his shot too much? Has he gotten to the middle enough on his own? And I think that that's kind of been what's haunted

him for the last couple of seasons at five on five. He's not a particularly good player in transition as much as he loves having the puck on his stick. He is a big body. He's learning to use that a little bit more. His release is still there. By my eyes, I can tell you this guy can still shoot his wrist her from anywhere you saw it against Calgary, the one game that he played so far this season. that finishing quality, I believe, is still 100% real. And it's going to be a question for him of putting together, when am I a puck carrier, when am I going to lean into the cycle, when am I going to find soft ice at the top of the zone?

And I don't think he'd quite answered those questions in Winnipeg yet. I think he's still a developing player in terms of five-on-five offense and some of it's just decision-making. Yeah, I'd like to see him, you know, I'm not too worried about the transition component of it. I think if anything, you don't necessarily want him transitioning the puck. Like Columbus has a bunch of guys that could do that. You want him kind of getting lost in coverage and finding those off spots. And then all of a sudden, you know, you quickly blink and you realize that he has a one-timer off-wing.

And it's in the back of the net before you know it. And I think for Columbus, Allison, you know, especially on their power play, I think back to that magical 2016-17 season with, you know, Sam Gagne, kind of revolutionizing that power play unit where they were remarkable for a long stretch there. since then they've been 26th, 28th, and 27th in the three years in goals per 60 on the power play. And I think just being able to create some easier goals every once in a while is going to be so huge for this team because it feels like, you know, one of the complaints has been, oh, just generated an offense sometimes can feel like this uphill battle where so many things need to go right in a sequential order for them to put the puck in the back of the net. Line A is this guy that it only takes just one shot. And I'm just really curious to see what they're going to do there. I think, you know, to Morat's point about going from from Bufflin to Pionk,

it seems like at least structurally, Zach Wrenski would be the perfect fit for that because his shot is a weapon, but he's such a smart high IQ player in terms of kind of sucking the defense in and then kind of John Carlson style shifting the puck over and he's never really gotten to play with a shooter like line A. So it feels like, you know, at the top of that power play structure, those two guys could be a big fit towards kind of turning around that trend and helping Columbus not have a bottom five power play moving forward. Yeah. I mean, and I say this with huge caveats because for three years, I've been trying to figure out how to fix this thing and they've been just so locked in their head. But

I agree. I think that this might finally be the threat that starts to keep penalty kills a little more honest against this unit. I like either Zach or Seth Jones up top because, again, they're not afraid to move with the puck. They're not afraid to shift around in the zone. Heck, this might be even an opportunity where we see John Tortorella go back to a powerplay formation that has both Seth Jones and Zach Werenski on it. The other piece that I like here, and this is what you want to see, but a Max Domi comes in, and he has not from the bumper position, obviously, from the half walls where he's been, but he has started to kind of remind guys how you're supposed to pass on the power play quick.

on target with intention. And that has added to the speed of execution, which as we all know is essential to get that penalty kill out of their formation. So I think this is going to definitely rejigger the power plays for Columbus. But this might be the piece that finally opens it up. Okay, well, this is for both you. I've been giving this a lot of thought because, you know, when this trade happened, everyone's sharing their player car.

and their charts of line A and his defensive metrics certainly look horrible. And, Matt, you and I have had a lot of conversations about this. I'm really curious to kind of poke and prod of this a bit more because, you know, the instant question is going to be, okay, how is line A going to deal with playing for a demanding coach like Tortorella in terms of the defensive structure, the Columbus system, what is this going to look like? And I keep coming back to this idea of how much of being good at defense or at least competent at the NHL level is effort versus ability.

And the other thing is, you know, I think there's, the stats have shown that there's a ton of variability from year to year in terms of defensive impacts, especially when players switch teams. It feels like it's much more, much less predictive than offensive impacts and what you can do just going to a new team and instantly producing offense. And so I'm really curious. I don't necessarily think that line A is all of a sudden going to become Patrice Bergeron playing for this Blue Jackets team.

But I wonder how much of it was being in Winnipeg and what he was asked to do and who he was playing with and how much of it was effort, how much of it was actual ability and sort of what the future is going to look like in that regard under this new coach and under this new system for Patrick Line, at least on that side of the ice. Yeah, it's the pertinent question to be sure. And you're right. He's not going to be Patrice Pergeron or any one of that. There's no Mark Stone in Patrick Lange's future.

But in terms of his effort, which often... gets questioned to watch the games with your eyes over the last couple of years. Metrics aside, you see a player who's willing to be Winnipeg's first forward back into the defensive zone on a back check. You see a player who's willing to play an aggressive one-on-one defense and coverage and is good enough at it not to lose his man. You also see, like I mentioned earlier earlier this season, Winnipeg's defensive adjustments, well, he's the winger that buys in and excels it dropping into the center slot and winning

a battle there to move the puck in the other directions. So it's not a question to me about try with Patrick Lainey. I think a lot of his defensive metrics are lost in team effects. I also think a lot are lost in the fact that, and you make a good point, you don't really need Patrick

Lainey to be a good transition player that doesn't have to be his job, but certainly he's struggled to move pucks over blue lines and keep them in at blue lines. You know, on the breakout, he hasn't been the strongest player in transition in that regard. Through the neutral zone, he likes the puck on his stick. He likes to take defenders one-on-one. I don't think he's having a tremendous

amount of success with that at this stage of his career. And then similarly, you know, keeping pucks in at the offensive line. So I think there's been some indirect effects that lead to his metrics looking as bad as they are, but the will is there, the effort is there. And depending on what he's walking into systemically and how clear his role is in that situation and who's doing the puck lugging, so to speak, I think that there's room. I don't think there's Mark Stone in his future, like I said, but I think there's room for substantial improvement, not to mention he's 22 years old and has been getting better at this each year. Allison, like, in terms of covering for his deficiencies

and sort of having the infrastructure in place and the personnel in place, I'm really curious to see what that's going to look like. Because, you know, for example, we talk about how the Vegas Golden Knights have the system where they can pretty much bring anyone in in center. They bring in Chandler Stevenson, and they're asking him to do two or three things and be in certain positions. in the ice and it's like all right with the personnel you have in that system it's very not to diminish what they're doing themselves but it's very easy to play that and it's kind of dumbed down

or i guess toned down a little bit for the player it makes it easier to integrate them um how are you feeling in terms of what tortarella and the blue jackets personnel currently in place is going to be able to do to um kind of simplify that sort of route tree i guess for linay in terms of what they're asking them to do and sort of how they can um at least make that more palatable so that it's not a point that we have to keep discussing, oh, look at, look at his, look at his sort of percentile for where he is as a defensive player and how he's dragging this team's results down. Yeah, and I loved your, your example there of Vegas because we saw this system that the blue jackets implemented. And last year was, again, an intense version of it. But,

you know, they, they lose over 400 man games or whatever it was to injury. And they have guys that even, even after the season was over, the coaching staff would say they look at the lineup card some nights and say this isn't even an NHL lineup. And these players could plug into the system. And now there were some leaks starting to form for sure. But they were able to uphold the systems of play and the effects on the opponent defensively. They weren't necessarily able to create as much offensively, but they were able to hold defensively.

And there are little piece parts of this that come out. You know, Zach Wrenski had great comments last year, just even about how Bradshaw works with them to use the stick, the positioning, the angling. The blue jackets are not a team that limits shots against. They're a team that limits quality against. And then what they've needed was those tools to then turn the puck and get it going the other way. They have a great breakout from the back end. They just need to get it back into the offensive zone and be able to create some dangerous chances there. And so I think that because of all those reasons, and because again, They don't want to harness in line A and make him the best defensive player that ever was.

I think that if they can put him in the right spot and they have experience with high-end offensive talent, how do we set him up to succeed? This roster is primed to do it because the players who made that successful before, even when the high-end talent was here offensively, they're all still here. And they'll be hungry for this as well. It's funny that you mentioned that because I think we're at like the Jets also. I remember last year, it was kind of laughable to me. they seem to pride themselves on being that type of team as well.

They're like, we don't care about the shot volume. We care about the shot quantity or the short quality. And then you look at it. It's like, well, that is dreadful. You're one of the worst three teams in the league. Like, this isn't something to be hanging your hat on. And, you know, they would point to their internal metrics. And I guess beyond Carter Hellebuck, maybe that was their internal metric.

But it felt like it wasn't actually, you know, there wasn't any substance to it. And it seemed like kind of this black box thing where they're just trying to talk themselves up when in reality, they're not actually. doing that and at least based on the metrics we have available to us and so um it's funny that he's going from a team that pride itself on that but didn't have any leg to stand on to a team that actually accomplishes what their sort of kind of what their mission statement is defensively it definitely is ironic you know i had conversations plenty of them uh throughout last season when winnipeg was kind of pointing to its internal metrics and saying hey it's not as bad as um as the what you see

publicly. And like you said, you know, they were so bad via the public metrics that it wasn't really a rounding error or anything to that effect. And when you watch what Paul Marista did in training camp and what Winnipeg's trying to do, it is 100% about improving in-zone defense and cutting down chances from what would be thought of as the high danger areas. So whatever the lingo was around it, it's something that Winnipeg is aware of and certainly was not good at by any stretch last season. The interesting kind of thing that goes into that and may impact how Patrick Lanny plays in Columbus

as well is when you... I mean, hockey is a linked game in terms of what happens one moment affects what happens the next. Winnipeg spent so much time in its own zone last year just being cycled on. That man-to-man coverage got exploited. You'd see teams run almost basketball offenses

looping towards the top of the zone, drawing centers and drawing defenders away from the middle of the ice, and then exposing what was their, behind that, after a 40-second shift like that, what is there to produce offensively? So in addition to Winnipeg's metrics defensively looking bad last season, like I think everybody would have expected given the personnel, I think the biggest shock was how average and below average they were by so many different offensive metrics as well.

So there may be room for Patrick Lainey to be a better five-on-five offensive player simply by him being removed from that situation that we have as his most recent prior. Yes, to put a boat on it, and you can both tell me if you agree or disagree, I think it's certainly a trade that makes sense for both teams. It kind of fits a need. I think if you're going to gamble on a player, it makes sense to do it on a talent like Lainé because the ceiling is so high. I definitely think that Pierre-Luc Dubois has been a more effective player and asset recently,

especially maybe I guess over the past year or two. But Linae's teenage years and what he showed us in terms of that game-breaking ability, is something that it is even more difficult to find than a 22-year-old number one center. And if he can get that unlocked or figure out how to channel that again, it provides, that skill set at least provides a theoretical ceiling that is the highest of any player involved in this trade. And so it's a risk. There's a reward. And so like any good trade, it kind of makes sense for both teams.

And we will need to see how it plays out and how they look in new groups. I'm a bit more optimistic right out of the gate that Pierrotu is going to fit in seamlessly. But like we kind of outlined here, I think for Line A, it's a much more interesting proposition than I think it looks like on the surface where it seems like an odd ball fit with him and this Blue Jackets team. I think there's room, I'll jump in. I think there's room, like you say, for Line A to have the highest peak of any player in this trade. But I think the probabilities are with Pierre-Luc Dubois based on what he's already established, based on the, you know, not quite a perfect all-round game like you two discussed earlier,

but a better all-around impact, to be sure, because the five-on-five play driving is there. And in addition, you know, playing the supposedly more important position center, as long as they have an impact, I don't care where they play, but in Winnipeg, that's going to be a very, very big deal. So there's a lot to like there. I want to throw in one more thought on how this is such a good fit for Winnipeg that we haven't really touched on, and that's the cap impact of it all. with Lainé being eligible for unrestricted for agency in 2023,

Pierre-Luc Dubois, not till 2024. Not only that, but Linae has his arbitration rights this summer. Pierre-Luc Dubois, one more year at that 5.0, I believe it is, $5 million contract of a bridge deal that he signed. So there's a reason to believe that not only does Winnipeg get the more impactful player or one that's going to fit better for them going forward, but in terms of the cap, I want to say penalties, but the cap stress of it all is a little bit alleviated because you're going to get one more year of this $5 million contract instead of whatever Lainey's raises this summer and one more year to sort out this unrestricted free agency business as well.

So if you're kind of going for quality over the term and that's how you're metricing it as well, Winnipeg definitely gets a player that'll help them a lot more than Linae would have. Right. For Allison, you know, out of the gate, Yarmos and I guess Linae himself said, you know, they've already started kind of preliminary talks and that's kind of the company line that you expect both. them to toe. But I think Murat does make a really good point there. And it is a strong consideration where, you know, if you're Columbus, you're basically going to have, what, 45 games at best or so of Patrick Linear here to see how you can integrate them, see if you can get a long-term contract done, if you can entice him to stay and keep them happy. And obviously, if that doesn't work, then it's become a major issue for them in another headache.

But I don't know, like, how do you see that sort of playing out in terms of the timeline here, where it does seem like the process has been kind of expedited here, where after this you still have them under team control, but it is only for two seasons. And at that point, that's a pretty dicey proposition, because I think Columbus would certainly not enjoy the alternative here of a bridge to your deal

and then walking them right up to free agency because clearly they feel like, you know, they can't compete with a lot of these other bigger markets and bigger teams purely on the unrestricted free agency market. Yeah, I mean, and that's, I was going to build off Mara. point as well. I think that there's there's two ways we need to look at this. And as Marat said, first, there's the player level who is going to have the bigger impact. And I do think all around,

it may very well be Pierre-Luc Dubois just because of the center positioning and the ability to be recognized for work on both ends of the ice versus sometimes I think, unless you're the elitist of the elite, you get dismissed no matter how good you are offensively. But the second level, as Marat hinted at as well, is this organizational question. I'm not. not even so much worried about the dollars and cents specifically, but about the long-term risk that was taken on, both in terms of player retention on the next contract for these specific players, but what does this organization look like in two to three years? As you hinted to, I think that, you know, is this organization even close to what it is now in three years?

Have they been able to really sustain the build of something? Or are there going to be a lot of big problems and big exits over these next two years, whether it be because of free agency status or because of dollars to spend. So this is a deal, I think, even above and beyond the player level evaluation, which is so much fun, but the team and organizational impact is going to be huge. It certainly well. Well, I think we did a pretty good job of covering our basis here. It's definitely a lot of layers to it, a lot of considerations. I'm really interested to see how both guys fit in their new teams, what it looks like, and we'll have plenty more opportunities to discuss it and kind of deal with the fallout. So I'll let you guys plug some stuff here now,

Allison, you can go first, Marad, you can go after, where can people check you out? What are you working on these days and give us all that good stuff? Sure. You can find pretty much everything I do on my Twitter, which is at Allison L. Anything I do funnels through there. And I'm also thrilled to be part of the Too Many Men podcast with Sarah Sivian and Shana Goldman to outstanding individuals in the world of hockey. I will hop in. I was just admiring Allison's resume. I'm one of Allison's biggest fans on the planet.

I have a too many men hoodie in the closet that I wear and I wear the Jets practices as well. So you can definitely find my work as well at The Athletic. The Twitter is at WPG Murat, which is M-U-R-A-T. and hey maybe if we if we go back to this topic at some time in the future we could even mention Jack Roslovick's name because I realize we spent all this time talking about the big ticket players and not him but I think that's that's where that's the stature of the players involved and I think that's only fair Jack Roslovich to teeed this podcast up you click play he's like oh I can't wait to see what these three have to say about my fit in Columbus and then he's like what the hell they're

signing out where'd I go second line right away he's got something to prove now Jack We're so sorry. And a hometown boy. Yay, Ohio. There you go. Awesome. Well, guys, this was a blast. I really enjoyed this.

And let's definitely do this again sometime soon. Yes, for sure. Thank you so much. Love it. Thank you. All right. That's going to be it for today's episode of the Hockey Pedy Ocast.

Once again, sorry to keep you waiting an extra couple days for the trade breakdown. But we really wanted to do a deal of such substance like this one justice. And I think we did just that Allison and Morat. They're so good at what they do. They cover their respective teams remarkably well. And I just love. of the depth and kind of curiosity of their insight. And I believe we got to put that on display here on this episode.

I didn't want this show to be us just repeating the same two to three talking points. You've all heard a million times by now on TV and on podcast and radio and Twitter. I wanted us to dig a little deeper and really kind of examine how both players are going to fit on their new teams and how they can be optimized and how they can get the most out of their skill sets. And hopefully we did that. honestly, it's such an interesting trade by NHL standards, though we probably could have done another hour or two on this trade, but I think this was a good start.

If you haven't listened yet, we also recently released a deep dive on the Red Hot Montreal Canadiens recently on this feed, so go back and check that out. If you have listened to it already and you've been enjoying the show, please consider taking a minute to drop us a line and leave us a five-star review. If you think it's not worth it, because it won't make a difference, I assure you that is not the case. each rating and review go a long way towards helping us out and helping the podcast moving forward.

So thanks for listening. Thanks for helping out. And we'll be back next week with more shows. The Hockey P.DOCAST with Dmitri Filippovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovic and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.