The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 385: Penguins Deep Dive

Episode Date: February 23, 2021

Jesse Marshall joins the show to help deep dive the Pittsburgh Penguins and their eventful start to the season. Topics include: Surviving a bumpy first month Why they're fortunate to be where they are Making sense of a strange underlying shot profile The funk Evgeni Malkin has been in What's wrong with him, and how they can fix him Mixing and matching in the top 6 Bryan Rust proving he's totally legit Jim Rutherford's unplanned exit Importance of coach and front office being on same page Managing multiple timelines as organization Putting players in position to succeed based on their skills  Getting back to 5-on-5 dominance If you're interested in the Blue Wire Hustle program discussed at the top of the show, you can submit your application here: http://bwhustle.com/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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With your host, Dimitri. to the Hockey PEOCast. My name is Dimitri Philipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Jesse Marshall. Jesse, what's going on, man? Oh, good to be back. Appreciate the invite, as always. I feel like, you know, you're a new man.

You've got a bit of a pep to your step. You're someone who's not spending every day covering Jack Johnson playing for the team you're writing about. So I feel like you're like in the best shape of your life this season just because you've got a new lease on your hockey journalism career. Much like Mary Lemieux during his comeback. I've been working out with Jake Cawfield at the Rosh. Robert Morris Island Sports Center in secret at 4 o'clock in the morning when no one's there.

I'm in the best shape of my life. I can tell. No. It's, yeah, no, it's been refreshing. I think, like, for the most part, you know, Penguins fans are still in, like, this, you know, I don't want to, like, frivolously use the phrase PTSD, but you get what I'm going for. Like, it's almost as if, you know, they have to, they haven't completely gotten over the fact that he's gone. to a division rival no less

none yeah well it did a lot of uh i think that first rangers meet up uh that they had um it was just absolutely it was a pretty brutal night for jack johnson i don't remember the exact numbers but i mean they were pretty typical of a recent performance of him you know it's like somewhere around 40 35 percent of the control of the game and uh you know just completely got caved in so that was uh you know it was a really quick turnabout of uh a fortune for penguin sins. Yeah, they've come to expect it. It was nice to see it on the other side.

So we're going to do the penguins, we're going to do a deep dive with the penguins today. And the reason why I wanted to chat is because I think on the surface you look and it's like, all right, in totality, they're 9, 6, and 1. They're coming off a pair of nice wins against the islanders. I think,

you know, they're kind of where you would have expected them to be in the preseason, just in the sense that they're competing for those sort of two to four seeds in their division right after Boston. And it's kind of up in the air. And it makes sense. But then I think if you dig it a little deeper where if you've been following their season

more closely kind of day to day, you know what kind of a roller coaster ride it's been where beneath that 9-6-1 record, they've got a minus five goal differential for the season. It took them until game number 13 of the year to get their first multi-goal lead. They're 7-1-1 in one-goal games. I think if you put it all together,

I think if anything, they're kind of lucky or at least fortunate to be where they are in terms of their position. position. But at the same time, you know, there's been a lot of stuff that's kind of either out of their control with injuries or, you know, the front office shakeup with which you can get into where they've done a pretty commendable job still of sort of braving that roller coaster ride where it very easily could have gone off the rails pretty quickly. And I think for a lot of organizations and teams without, you know, Sydney Crosby, for example, would have probably similarly, like,

just struggled and would have a completely different outlook on their season at this point. So I kind of have a tough time evaluating these. first whatever 15-16 games there is because on the one hand i feel like they're they've been lucky and they should be have a worst record but on the other hand i feel like it'll probably go up from here so i think those two things almost balance themselves out yeah the penguins are like uh best described as like a very delicate ecosystem or like one tiny little thing can upset the whole cart and just ruin even not even a full game dmitri we're talking like they can play a perfect 50 right perfect 55 but the five or that 10 that's not good is so bad that it outweighs and ruins

everything that they did in those other minutes and they have this like culture of meltdowns defensively that are of like the most grandiose manner they're not just like little hiccups there's stuff you'll talk about in the car on the way home and you'll give the sports talk in the town fodder for two three four days sometimes they're they're monumental and they're They're so elementary. And I don't want to make it sound like I'm like diminishing the competition because the division is obviously very tough. The Penguins have had the worst of it so far. They've played Washington, Boston.

The Islanders in there. I mean, they haven't spent any time really against Buffalo or New Jersey or sort of like it's the quote unquote basement dwellers of the division. And certainly, you know, the environment's tough. But so much of what ails them is self-inflicted. that it's you really can't help but feel like there's this competent well put together hockey team somewhere underneath there that is just like scratching on its way to get out it's been better because of goaltending recently you know Tristan Jari had an absolute nightmare to start to season you know and I even would say given some of the performances individually that they've had on defense it's not

even so much the injuries that really hurt them I think you know some of the guys that came Chad Ruehito is a name you always hear about in Pittsburgh is like a number five or six, constantly just putting out these, you know, very decent performances. It's been like Brian Dumlin having a rough year. John Marino being lost on his offside. Chris Latang probably being their fourth or fifth best defenseman this season. It's just been all over the place. So I don't know that I really have all that good of a pulse on them either.

They're not really remarkably outstanding in any one area. um, analytically speaking anyway, uh, they're kind of, you know, they are what they are is bit of like a middle of the pack team right now that is solid, but subject to these just absolutely chronic meltdowns. Well, you know, it's funny you mentioned, um, analytically how you'd evaluate them because I think when preparing for this and sort of trying to capture their season as a whole, what really sticks out is it's a bizarre kind of analytical resume they've got going where basically as you go from like the rawest shot metrics and then you start accounting for more quality in terms of like you're going from like just raw on block shot attempts to like stuff

that makes it on the net to then hide your chances to expected goals they basically get worse each step along the way and it's it's weird to see that and and you see it a lot in the individual numbers for for individual performances as well where it's not it's I guess it's weird to me because it's not what I expected to see heading into the season. And I think in most cases, you'd go, all right, well, 16 games out of 82, that's not really a large sample size. Let's wait until we get to the 25 game mark, maybe even the 30 game mark before we really evaluate.

And then at that point, you can always make a trade and improve your team. You've got plenty of wiggle room until the deadline. But in this season, that's already 30% of the schedule or so. And if you're talking about, oh, well, there's going to be a reinforcement via trades, beyond the fact that this team has already kind of picked its wrong. in the sense that they don't have too many more assets or much more financial wiggle room to make any improvements. It's also an almost impossible task to improve your team at this point because if you're trading for a player, they're probably not going to be in your lineup while

they're quarantining for the next whatever five to seven games. And then at that point, who knows where you're going to be. So I think we're going to see a lot of teams either pretty aggressive with their trades in terms of doing them now before the deadline or just kind of sitting it out and not doing anything at all this season. But I guess it's just strange to kind of combat that sort of patient approach and waiting for the sample size to even out versus having to sort of make do with these numbers at this point of the year for every team not just the penguins just because the timeline is kind of expedited for everyone well i think like that analytical analysis you gave is a perfect summation of like sort of

those mini meltdowns that we were talking about earlier um they can control a game but the hiccups are so bad that you know from a quality and high danger perspective perspective, it's less pretty. I think it's, you know, clear cut, Dimitri, to me, like what this team really lacks. And with Jared McKee, you know, they haven't had, you know, a full compliment of forwards healthy at one time. You know, right now Jared McCann's not in. We just got Zach Aston Reese back into the lineup.

So it's kind of been, especially on the bottom half of the team, a bit, you know, of a rotation of faces. But they need help on the fourth line. for sure. I think they have one of the worst fourth lines in the National Hockey League, which is not a great compliment to all the awesome things that Teddy Bluger, Zach Aston Reese, and Brandon Tanna are doing on a nightly basis. So they need help there. They have a glut of left-handed defensemen. So possible that you could make a move, sacrifice, depth there, and not have to give up an asset like either of your two forwards in Valdor

or a pick, which you don't have a lot of to begin with. And then the big question mark is a goaltending, right? Who is Tristan Jari? I mean, is he the player that, you know, had like a 850 save percentage through the first two and a half weeks of the season? Or is he a guy that just put up, you know, really three in a row phenomenal performances in that and seems to have buoyed himself? Is he all-star Tristan Jari from last year or second half of,

the season, Tristan Jari. And that's the big question because, you know, Casey DeSmith, you know, has been fine. You would just say that, Demetri, has been fine. Yep. But that's just it, right? And he is who he is. So I don't know if Ron Hextall is even aware of right now whether or not he needs to try to make an improvement to that position.

Well, they clearly made a gamble on Jari. And it was, I think, largely predicated on those 25 or so great games he had last year before the All-Star game at the start where he came out on fire. And listen, I get it, like, from the perspective of they basically picked Jari over Matt Murray, and he comically got $25 million from the Sends. And that's looking like a train wreck right out of the gate. And if anything, like the silver lining is that Murray's numbers have been even worse than Jerry so far. So I think Penguins fans are probably, you know, kind of monitoring that as well. But like when they gave him that three-year, $3.5 million investment, I believe, it clearly had high hopes for it.

And so far he's 56 out of 67 qualified goal. He's in goal save above expected. He's 46th and save percentage with an 892 for the year. But as you mentioned, like the last couple of performance has been really good. I wonder how much we should even kind of account for or contextualize the first couple of games because it felt like those two games right out of the gate against the flyers where they just look like a complete mess defensively in front of him. He certainly didn't do himself any favors, but it didn't look like the team that we thought

they were going to be in terms of being defensively reliable and having a good system in place. and the reason why so many analytical models like them before the season. So I'm almost like throwing those first couple of showings out of the gate, and obviously that adjusts the numbers quite a bit. But it is a big question mark. At the same time, though, it's goaltending as a question mark for everyone. I'm not sure if there's anyone out there that you could add that all of a sudden make me feel that much more confident about this Penguins team.

I think the bigger, more pressing issue is that they need to improve what's going on in front of them to be that team that they were when they were kind of humming last season. and the team that we thought they could be heading into this year when they were considered to be one of the more sort of dominant 5-on-5 teams, especially in terms of defensive metrics. Yeah, I think that you're starting to see, you know, over the course of this last couple games where they've started to acquire and earn regulation wins, which has been a big change of pace, Dimitri. I believe they had won through the first, you know, third of the season. And so what you've started to see is, you know, the emergence of like a Mike Matheson who, you know, sort of turned his game around. Zach Aston-Rees comes back of the lineup and scores in three straight.

You know, Evgeny Malkin has started to slowly but surely pick up steam. Brian Rustus has kind of become the, you know, straw that stirs his drink a little bit. But the elements that are sort of required to get to the point that you've just referenced and to be that team that can control the game at five. at five on five and, you know, do what the penguins have always been known to do, which is draw penalties and then convert on the power play. You know, they have to, the power play itself has even, you know, turned the corner recently. They have to start to get this stuff firing.

Because if, you know, here's the thing. This is penguins hockey in a nutshell. This is a summation of their success from 2008 to present. They're going to make mistakes defensively. They're going to take chances. They're going to pinch. They're going to do all these crazy things. that you shouldn't do when you have a two-goal lead, right?

Throw all the fundamentals out the window. But it doesn't matter because the power play usually operates at about 25%, right? They get these surprising goals from depth players on a near constant basis. Their top six is usually a complete steam roller. They haven't had that. Power play's been trash. Really, only the top line has been any good. And that's been the biggest issue. So if they could just add those elements, they could get back to their

nature of, you know, playing risky high event hockey and being good at it. All right. You mentioned Malkin. Let's get into that here. I think this is going to be kind of the biggest talking point of today's show. The reason why I wanted to have you on was because just watching all of these games, I think Malkin's performance so far this season has been one of the most baffling individual performances for me, just watching all these games and all these teams.

And especially when you combine the expectations you have for a lot of. an established player like himself you know the eye test is really bad um he looks i don't know put it generously like out of it in the sense that there's a certain level of of hesitation or um indecisiveness like he gets the puck in the offensive zone and even on the power play he like looks like he's going to tee one up and then all of a sudden he just stops and he kind of doesn't know to do it almost like his video game control or disconnected. It's very bizarre to me. I think it's interesting that he said he's looked better recently because I agree the numbers have been better generally when they've put Rust there instead of Kaepinan. But at the same time, I thought

in the last game against the Islanders, it seems like he narrowly avoided injury when he crashed into their boards there. But I thought he kind of looked like an old man when Matt Barzal did that punch turn where he was like very, you know, technically speaking, just like stiff and upright and straight-legged and he just kind of crumbled into the boards. There was a goal, I believe, the honors scored there where he flew the zone so hard and there was a turnover and then by the time the puck was going in the net, he was like kind of looping around at center ice. I don't know.

Just like in terms of watching these games and sort of, I know you have a working theory on what's been going wrong so far this season, but let's kind of unpack that a little bit here because I think that is ultimately the biggest question for this team. Beyond the goaltending, it's clear that, you know, you know, you know. Sidney Crosby is a standard bearer and he's going to bring it every night and you kind of know what you're going from him. But it's clear that for this team, the ceiling kind of is way higher when Malkin's humming and when he's going. And when he's not, it's a big problem because all of a sudden it exposes sort of depth issues in terms of scoring and all that. So where are you out with Malkin and sort of you can take that any direction you want because I know it's a, it's sort of a wide-ranging topic.

Yeah, I guess so there's a couple barometers. I guess he could use to gauge, you know, more or less from me, like, where he's at, right? And kind of what's going on, you know, specific to this season. The biggest one for me, Demetri, has been the line changes. Really bad just this year in terms of his decision-making and, you know, leaving the play at times when, you know, there's the puck's in transition. there was a turnover he had where he tried a east-west passed against the islanders Saturday right at the red line that got picked off off a skate and came back and went in the net that was during a line change by the way the defense was you know scrambling there but even

in his decision-making to go to the bench you know I guess this the puzzling part about this is at the early part of camp, I thought he looked thinner, bigger, maybe, you know, more ripped, looked good in camp and in practice early on. And then this story matriculates out through Rob Rossi at the athletic, was this discussions happening about, like, how in the off season there were no gyms available in Moscow. And he couldn't work out, couldn't get ice. There was nowhere for him to go. So let's pause, because I know we're going to change and discuss this topic later. Let's bring this back and we get into the front office discussion. Because if there's like an indictment of Jim Rutherford's time in Pittsburgh and some of like the disorganization that went on,

one element of it is not being able to get of, Evgeny Malk and ICE in Russia. Like how does this happen? Right? Like how do we get to this point? So is it a wind issue? You know, I mean, like I keep talking about these line changes and I'm breaking all this tape down of him making these just unconscionable decisions

and when he goes to the bench and that's becoming of a player who doesn't have his wind, right? You would think leaving a shift early or changing an inopportune time would be symptomatic of someone who didn't work out that much. Now like I don't know the inside out of the story I have no idea what made ice so hard to come by we're in a pandemic I'm sure that's got something to do with it

but it's pretty clear to me that there wasn't a whole lot of communication between McGinnie Malkin and the Penguins and noting that they just went out and hired somebody literally solely to run the hockey, not run, build a hockey operations department. Like, you don't need a better example than failing to get your star player ice.

I don't, that's like unconscionable to me. And I know it's maybe it's an easy out, right? But A, I think Dimitri explains why he's gotten better over the course of the year, right? He's catching up. It's coming to him. you know it's it comes of time is there a level of personal responsibility on him to do something about it sure i don't know what it is i don't know what it looks like in a pandemic anymore than

i understand the visa issues that casparay capitan had in getting over here i mean it's a weird world we're living in uh but to me clearly and i and i said this to you anecdotally but there's a hockey coach i had at a very young age who would just absolutely shit on everybody he could if they were out of shape and he always used to you know he always had a little bit of used to say if you're breathing, if you're thinking about breathing, you are not thinking about playing hockey. You can't do both at the same time, right? So if you want to leave, we have a little convenience store in Pennsylvania, Dimitri, called Sheets, right? And they had a sandwich that you could put provolone sticks on. It was a chicken parm sandwich with provolone sticks. We used to eat it all the

time and he used to scream. It's fine. You could do that. Eat them. But when you suck and you're not getting nice time, don't come and ask me why, because it's because you're eating parmesan on sandwich or chicken, parm sandwiches with mariner sticks on them. So, you know, you get the idea. Like, I get the impression just by watching. He's 100% like not in the game right now. And that appears to be the reason why. It's affected, I think, both zones and the decision making.

That's been the most puzzling part. And what it's prevented, what makes that line usually so good is the extended zone time it gets. And right now it's just been one and done. They get in, they take a shot. It goes off the glass. They regroup and try to play defense. And that's wash, rinse, repeat. It's been way too much of that.

And it's a reason why he has so little to show for himself at even strength points-wise. Yeah, he's looked discombobulated. You mentioned the even-strength production. So he's played 221-5-on-5 minutes. He's got one goal and three total primary points. With him on the ice, they're getting outscored 11 to 8. He's got a 37.2% high-danger chance share and a 44.3 expected goal share. and I don't think it's a coincidence that the numbers are significantly better when he's playing with Rust and Zucker,

as they have recently. I think it was kind of interesting that Sullen finally made that switch back, despite how good Rust had been playing with Gensel and Crosby, compared to the numbers that Malkins had with Zucker and Kappan. And I wonder, you know, you and I did a full podcast about Kusperi Kappenden after the trade this past off season where we were talking about the fit there and sort of what they saw on him and how he was going to work with Crosby. And they've clearly been hesitant to put him with Crosby. And they finally did so recently. And I'm curious to see how that's going to work. Because I think, you know, especially

with Malkin's issues right now, and maybe this is a bit of a mood point as the season goes along, if your theory is correct and he gets fitter and some of those decision-making issues get thrown out the window. But it feels like, like, I love Cappin's energy and his motor. But at the same time, it's such like a wild and frantic energy. And I think even on his best days, he or, his linemates don't know where he's going to be on the ice. And with Malkin right now, kind of struggling to line up with his line mates. And in terms of the thought process and get on the same page, it's thrown, like, it's only exacerbated those issues.

So I wonder how much of that is part of it as well, because it's just so bizarre that Malkin's numbers with him have been so catastrophically bad compared to what they've been like with Rust, who he did have success with last year, albeit playing with Gensel as well. The one element to this that we need to mention is that Jason Zucker, in particular, I don't think it's been very great. Yeah. Not, and again, the environment being as volatile as it is, you know, that certainly comes into play with a piece of it. But he, you know, I think what in a theory, what you get from him is being a little bit of like

the straw that gets in there and stirs things up on the forecheck, generate some turnovers, pressures the opposition, and then you get that finishing as a bonus, right? I think for Zucker recently, it's been all too much looking for that. that finishing and not doing the other things that also add into his game and make him the packaged player that the Penguins went out and tried to get twice, right? So that's been hit or miss throughout the course of the season and there's been things that have gone on that have, you know, he's whiffed on chances. The whole team was in a scoring slump through the first week and a half.

He got caught up in that. I think it affected him negatively. I will say this about Casbury Capon and I think there were elements of his game that did to help Malkin screw things together. Because Kappan, when he gets it, he just goes one direction. There's no east-west, right? It's straight. There's just one option and that's it and it's fast.

And it forced Malkin to play a certain way, I think. And I mentioned you even against the Islanders, you know, there's the east-west play that caused a turnover and he got burned on. I still think there's just too much of that. There's not enough of that attack and get into the zone and establish something first. That has been what we've seen of Kavin'a.

happening with Gensel and Crosby. And I have to eat a bit of crow on it. It's early. I know it's not, story has not yet been written on this completely. But some of it, his game, honestly, Demetri has been like the antithesis of what I expected. Now he's a winger, right?

So wingers don't have to exhibit a high level of defensive zone competence. You know, it's not exactly a demanding position. It's more about just like, are you present? in a lot of NHL systems as a winger. But he's, you know, there's been no deficiency there. And I think for the Crosby-Gensel line, you know, that line will always be about those two. Yeah.

They have like an ethereal connection that supersedes, I think, even like what Crosby had with like Hosa and Kunitz. It's just, they operate on a, on a 4D chess type of approach to the game. And Capitan doesn't have to participate in that, right? he gleaned a goal. Does his own thing? Yeah, he does. But if you go back, you know, early on against the first game, I believe it was against

the Islanders in the series, you know, it's Capitan that goes in there and creates the turnover that gets the puck, you know, in the hands of guys that end up putting it in the net. But he's out there, you know, being the wrecking ball. And not to mention, you know, his presence in front of the net in the offensive zone. And as you know, it's proved to be pretty good. But so I don't know what the long-term vision for this line looks like. Maybe he just is the Pascal Dupuis to throw it back to Sidney Crosby. That would be great.

That would work. But I think as long as he's out there ultimately letting Gensel and Crosby run the show, there's a place for him up there. I don't want to get off Malkin just yet, just because I think the reason why I'm struggling so much to kind of rationalize his start or contextualize it. is because, you know, I think in a vacuum, even for a historically great player, you'd say, all right, listen, he's turning 35 this summer. He's played, I think, approximately or maybe even slightly above 1,100 combined games,

if you factor in playoffs as well in the NHL. He's accumulated a ton of injuries and missed a bunch of time, and I'm sure that has sort of taken its toll a little bit in terms of wear and tear. But at the same time, like, this is a player that last year was having, just a monster season. I think his 82 game pace was 110 points. He produced at rates similar to his 2012 Art Ross and Hart season. He carried the Penguins in the 30 games that Crosby missed. Only Pasternak and McDavid generated more points per 60 than he did. So it's not like we're necessarily, we're talking about a stereotypical 35-year-old player that, you know,

his best days are behind him. And I think that would sort of give me optimism that this is going to turn around above all else just because it would be so bizarre if it went just like that considering how good he was as recently as last season sure it'd be the first time really in the course of his career that something like that lasted for the full course of the season right um i think if we look at this uh not only from a video perspective but also from a shot location perspective, like through hockey viz. There's just so much of what's happening right now for that, for his line and for him in particular is coming from the perimeter of the ice.

There's not really any drive to the interior. There's nothing happening in front of the net. The slot area is, you know, pretty desolate. And that's a great change, you know, from what you see out of the line historically. You know, generally speaking, it's one that, you know, is down low, working it from behind to in front, you know, driving to the net, creating havoc down there. I just, that, again, if you think about this from the shot map perspective, you know, it kind of lines up with what we're seeing on the ice.

You know, it's a lot of getting into the zone, having a solid entry, but then spending in on something that's a less than optimal chance and not really establishing any long-term zone time. Well, that is an interesting theory that you mentioned there, and I started to cut you up, But I just because I was thinking like, you know, usually when kind of the ability starts to erode for grade players, you see the first red flags of it in shot generation rate. Like especially for guys who are volume shooters, it starts to go a little bit. And the most logical explanation is that, you know, they're just struggling to get their shot off as much because maybe they've slowed down a little bit, whether they're processing or their physical speed. And it just becomes that much tougher.

and his have just completely plummeted where there's just no real precedent for the rate at which he's both attempting and getting Pucks on net that he has so far this season compared to any point of his career. And it's just so it's just so out of line with everything else. And so that would lay credence to your theory of kind of a lot of one and duns where it's tough to rack up those attempts multiple times and in a shift where you're getting rebounds and getting the puck back and cycling and retrieving and doing all that. if it's just kind of one quick bad shot or something or a pass to a player that isn't where he's supposed to be and all of a sudden you're back out the zone and you're hopping off the ice that would explain the shot rates a lot to me well it also explains too dmitry why brian rust makes that line play so much better because i and i've written about this that the elevation of brian russ game as an individual performer who can be a play driver wherever you put him

co-aligns with the microdata that says Brian Rust carries the puck more, that the play is coming off of the stick of Brian Rust more than it used to early in his career. I think that there was, there's like a deferential Brian Rust that existed and still played really well and scored, but had the penchant for getting called out by Mike Sullivan. And remember Jim Rutherford made the comment, some guys got paid and rested on their laurels, which was a direct reference to Brian Rust playing in a slump. but something clicked for him a year and a half now ago where I think he realized, you know,

I can make this happen myself and it aligned with him having more carries per 60, more entries per 60, more transition opportunities, the passing data changed. And I think there's something to be said, Dimitri, when you're the orchestrator of the play, right? Because if you think about this from like the forwards perspective,

if you're crossing the blue line and distributing the puck, you enter the zone. What immediately happens after that? You go and get open. Recognized employees with custom ink. Show customer appreciation with custom ink. Outfit your teams with custom ink. Easily add your logo to your favorite products and brands at custom ink.com. Make custom ink your custom gear partner with great customer service, quality products, and all in pricing, along with personalized help when you need it, and an easy to use website when you don't. All backed by a 100% satisfaction guarantee. Do it all today at custom ink.com. Right. You've distributed the puck. You're no longer the play driver and now you have the opportunity

to do what goal scores do. And there are a lot of elements that are shared in Brian Rustin, Jake Gensel, in terms of they're both smaller guys who have a penchant for getting open and just finding space and being able to weave through the defense and peel off players, just change their momentum a little bit. And that's, and that's, That's what it's about. You know, I think anywhere he goes, you see this uptick because he's not no longer, you know, really afraid, in my opinion, to be the one that's doing that conductor's work. And as a driver, I think it's produced a lot of really great outcomes for him. Yeah, he was one of the players I was most curious to watch this year because I think it was understandable to be skeptical about the offensive production of a 28-year-old who had never previously gotten 20 goals or 40 points.

in their NHL career, suddenly shooting 18% being a point per game, scoring at a 40 goal per 82 game pace. And this year, it's, you know, statistically, it's fascinating because he compensated for that expected shooting percentage regression. I think he's down at 10% now by simply just like shooting the puck significantly more, where I believe he's getting over one more shot on goal per game so far. But even visually, I've been wildly impressed by all those things you just mentioned now in terms of his activity and just how often he's on the puck and how dangerous he's been like it feels

like he has been their most dangerous player in terms of just like constantly finding ways to get open and just being around the puck and and you know that clearly is a very legitimate skill and so you know i think he's certainly transcended uh buzz flibit and mark dong status and he's become his own entity because he followed up last year with i think even taking another step in in terms of his development. And so, you know, from a silver lining perspective, like, he's like a legit player now in my mind. Yeah. And it's been a huge boost for them, you know, and a team that I think has struggled to find reliable 515 production outside of like Teddy Blugher and Sidney Crosby, you know, and whoever's with them, you know, because it's generally, that's generally the,

been the, uh, the driver behind the bus this year. Uh, it's been a, it's been a welcome. And it's, in, and you've seen already, you know, you mentioned just a minute ago that Mike Sullivan just put him back on that Malkin unit to kind of give that unit a boost. Having a player like that is, you know, for a coach that's not afraid to use those changes, is just such an asset. You know, and I think you've seen Mike Sullivan this year try a bunch of things and, you know, not be afraid to break it up. And we saw Brandon Tanniv on the top line and then in top six briefly against the Islanders this weekend. But, I mean, overall, I mean, we know, we're Relative to, you know, the rest of the team, you know, Brian Rust is just flat out, outperforming.

It's 7% higher relative to the rest of the team in. Shot metrics, 8%, you know, in terms of prospective goals for. They've just been able to kind of pick them up and plop them wherever they need to to get things going. And it's been a lot of reliable minutes. Do you want to talk about the front office and the shakeup and sort of the bigger picture, not necessarily on ice stuff, but just organizationally where they're at? Yeah. I don't know.

What's a good entry point for this? Because I'm, here's what I'm sort of most intrigued by, just like from a principal perspective, it's so bizarre to me that, well, okay, wait. So do we feel like the organization was legitimately blindsided by Jim Ruther for his decision to step down? something that they felt like was potentially a realistic outcome at some point earlier uh legitimately blindsided i think i think i think a legit i think you would have considered it a legitimate outcome like six months from now yeah you know like at the end of this when it's all wrapped up and everything is said and done this season i don't think there's any any indication that it was

going to happen post camp eight games into the season the day after They had one of the most embarrassing losses I can remember a team having where they were actually competitive in where they had that overtime where I think it was Malkin-Latagan and a 2-0 failed to get a shot attempt on net and then came back down and scored and it was like, I guess that was kind of the-time for a season that they failed to score on a 2-0. Not those two players in particular, but the Penguins have had, I want to say three separate two-on-oh or three-on-one opportunities that have. All but, I mean, they haven't even produced a shot. It's been mind-numbing. If you told me they did all in a while of Guinea-Malk and I would believe it because it was the perfect encapsulation of everything we just talked about in terms of the struggles.

But I agree with that, with no inside knowledge, it would just make sense to me that they didn't see it coming because I just don't understand how you could allow someone to not only trade away your 2020 and 2021 first, but take on future financial commitments. if you didn't expect them to see it through and kind of be the architect of the entire operation. Like just the decisions and how active they were leading up to this leads me to believe that they did not see this coming organizationally

because that would just be just bizarre timing. No, I mean, you literally can't take on a greater financial commitment to Mike Matheson's contract. Like, does one exist in hockey? Maybe money-wise, right? But certainly not from a term perspective. I think that like what we ended up, well first of all, let me say this. What shocks me is that this discussion that we're having here together isn't happening at Pittsburgh and really didn't.

Whether that be due to accessibility or candor or relationships, but the man who like quit eight games into the season by and large just had like a lot of thank you piece. there was a lot of thank you comments that were coming out about it. Like I think even to the fan base, I was surprised he didn't get held to the fire a little bit more, but I think from a fan base perspective, I think most fans probably felt like it was time for this. I don't get the sense that a lot of people were upset by his departure. And I think because of that,

you got less vitriol out of Pittsburgh than you normally would, you know? I think that exposed the penguins for, being like kind of disorganized a little bit. You know, I think that there was, I think there were things that normal teams do, right, from a, from a hockey ops perspective that the penguins don't do because of a lack of infrastructure. So I think when Jason Carmonos left, I don't, which wasn't really, that was Jim Rutherford's guy, right? That was his right hand. And that was not his decision per se. Some of his other, you know, you know, the gong chargos, you know, the assistant coaches are out. I think it just became less his environment. There was a lot of

discussion of he tried to trade Latang and they said no. There's no evidence to suggest that. What I think happened was this situation just kind of became untenable for him and he, you know, felt the need to leave. But I'll tell you this, Demetri, all the, the proof is in the pudding, right? And what we know for sure, without, not for sure, but we believe to be true, what we've got on good authority is that the penguins tried to bring in Dale Tallinn last year as an advisor to the team. Right. So what do Dale Tallin and Brian Burke have in common? They're both guys who, if you're looking for someone, let's forget on ice hockey ops decision making for a second because both of them are awful on that. Okay. If we just focus on knowing the business and building a department,

either one of them are arguably two of the best you're going to get at that, right? And so the message from the Penguins for me was we need to get our house in order. We're not modern. We're not like cutting edge with hockey ops and we need somebody to build it from the ground up. Whether or not that ultimately is what pushed Jim Brotherford out. I don't know. But what I can tell you is I think ultimately Jim Brotherford's reticence to participate in any of that. Or his, you know, I guess lack of enthusiasm around some of the administrative aspects of the position probably is what caused that divorce.

And one of the reasons why the Penguins were looking for someone to build it as recently is a year ago. Yeah. Well, there's a lot of NHL organizations that are behind the times in terms of how cutting edge their tactics are in the departments they're building. But I just thought it was bizarre because, you know, the most well-run organizations are the ones where everyone is in lockstep where the person acquiring the players, which is typically the GM, is aligned and in sync and shares the same vision and the plan as the coach in terms of how the coach ideally wants to run their team, the personnel they need, putting them in a position to succeed. and you need to kind of ensure that the coach you have is going to actually use the players the way the person acquiring them intends in terms of when they're constructing their team, right? And so for me, I remember when we were speaking in the off season, don't you think it was a lot of decisions were like, hmm, this doesn't necessarily seem like

the most Mike Sullivan approved personnel in the sense that it was never necessarily about skating super fast as a team. it was much more so about being really smart and playing fast and having like really high level processing speed in terms of thinking the game. And so that always kind of struck me as sort of, you know, not bizarre, but kind of not in sync with one another in terms of what we'd expect from this team and sort of the players they were targeting. Well, it's kind of like saying, Dimitri, that Tampa Bay's identity was more in line

with what Blake Coleman was doing and not Braden Point, right? Yeah. I mean, it's like looking at that Tampa team and saying, well, you got tough. That's what did it. You know, Brian Burke is the one that just said that. I, you know, Mike Sullivan is the wild card in all of this, right? Because the timeline of events here is the penguins go to Brian Burke. Bring him in as an advisor to the general manager search, right? So he's now participating in the process. They hire Ron Hextall, and then they say to Brian Burke, hey, why don't you just stick around? and build the sucker out from the ground up.

So for that part in particular, you kind of get the sense that like everybody's on the same page, right? Because I can't imagine a scenario, as wild as Brian Burke can be, where he's going to like step on the toes of the guy he hired, right? Like, that's not serving in anybody's best interests. And to be fair, in just a brief period of time he's been here, we don't get the sense that like he's poking around like everything, oh, blah, blah, blah.

Like, it's very much just normal day-to-day stuff. So I think where you question now is, like, how does Mike Sullivan's philosophy or view on the game align with Ron Hextalls? Right. And we have to acknowledge the elephant in the room here at some point, okay, because nobody wants to do it. We have to acknowledge that this Penguins group in particular,

this group of penguins, from the time they've been together, have had a very short shelf life for coaches. and it probably would be shorter on average if Ray Sherro hadn't tied himself to Dan Bilesma's boat and had them both sunk at the same time, right? Yep. And that's what caused Ray Sherro's departure

was the fact that he didn't let go of Dan Bilesma. So I don't know why that is. I'm not saying it's an indictment of the penguins. I'm not saying it's something that's bad, maybe it's the nature of the beast, but is Mike Sullivan at that point? I don't know, right? Like I have no idea.

Does Ron Hextall know? I think this is the one part of like your process flow that you laid out that is like a giant question mark. I mean, I think it's I think Mike Sullivan even, you know, this year I think you've seen like a more measured version of him. You know, there's been times where he's called timeouts and done like Mike Sullivan stuff. But I think even might, you know, like you hope he's not even feeling that. You know, and he could just be comfortable and do what he wants to do. but I mean, I imagine in his situation, you know, you're kind of like, you've got that odd man out feeling and, you know, every, all the familiarity he kind of had is kaput. Yeah, I guess I'm kind of interested in, in the general timeline and sort of the, what the overarching plan would be, both in terms of the, you know, the new GM and President of Hockeyops that came in, and I guess you could kind of factor the coach into loop them in as well.

But, like, it's pretty clear, you know, we had this conversation about Malkin. They're going to reach a really interesting position here where after next season, out next off season, he's going to be up for a new deal. He'll be 36 years old. It's going to be a tricky spot for them in terms of figuring out how much he has left in the tank and considering how much he's meant to organization. Similarly with Chris LaTang, you know, your Crosby is still great. And I think we'd both agree that he's going to age very gracefully because the subtleties

of his game lend themselves well to him just picking his spots and kind of getting the most out of the people who's playing. with and I think that's going to thrive very nicely over the next handful of years. But just in terms of the plan and sort of how much I think they, for the most part, box themselves in with this group where, you know, if there was one thing you would say about Jim Rutherford all the time when we talk, it was, okay, he's willing to acknowledge his mistakes, he's willing to make a bunch of moves and kind of stay active. And if you're sort of mapping out the blueprint for how this team, not just for the rest

of this season, but heading into next year and beyond kind of improves. gets better and maybe creates another window to compete and not just, you know, make the playoffs and bow out, you know, meekly in round one. I'm really curious what that looks like ultimately. And if there is a plan there in place in terms of what the pitch was when they were doing the interviewing process, because that would be the biggest question I'd have if I was owning this team and trying to hire someone or enable someone to run it. Well, I guess the encouraging thing, if you're a Penguins fan and you're thinking about this,

like what is the organization looking for in a hire, right? Like what do we know about the group of guys that were involved in this? So like we know Mike Fuda is like a prospect guru, right? Like, you know, look at what he did with the Kings. We can kind of say the same thing about Ron Hextall to some extent. Like a guy who has generally managed assets well in that regard. So I guess like you get the sense that they are looking for someone that can make the most out of the, you know, the bad situation that is their draft pick,

you know, cupboard. It was a big knock to the Penguins prospect pool in Sam Poland and make the World Junior team. But they're like, it was a reality check. Like how good of a prospect that you have here? Like, is, is this player as good as you think he is? And now, like, you know, obviously he's playing with Nathan Legerry, like, in Valdewer. Like, they're together. They've been great.

But it's just a reminder, I think, of, like, how chance. of a situation this is. And I think what surprises me about Penguins fans is the level of no craps given they've thrown to the post like Crosby Malkin era, you know? And it's like you have, and I look at the Rangers, you know, the Rangers aren't perfect. They've made some dumb decisions, you know, we just talked about Jack Johnson and they got lucky, right? I mean, you have to get the lottery ball to fall your way, right?

But they also made some like really good business decisions that enabled their pivot to be much faster, right? Like it was a lot quicker that it that it could have been. And I think I would use that as a reminder to Penguins fans because a lot of this Dimitri is like, you know, Mike Matheson signed at 4.8 mil through 2025, 2026. brand intentive on three and a half million through 2024, 2025. These are contracts that turn you from the New York Rangers into something much worse, right, that prevent you from making that quick pivot. And it just seems like, you know, that win now at all costs mentality is still very much alive in the city. Which it should be when you have Cindy Crosby and hopefully some version of Evgeny Malican

that looks better than the one we've seen so far. You kind of owe it to yourself as an organization. But at the same time, I don't think those are usually exclusive ideas. Like, I think there's a way to build a team well that is sustainable and looks ahead. Without trading a first round pick for Casperi, Captain. Not only that, but taking on his contract, which limits you to add another $3 million winger that could conceivably help you more if you identify a different type of skill set. So it's more about, I think, like a misappropriation of assets in that sense.

Yeah. And finding someone that is not only going to make the most out of what they do have, but isn't going to overpay, you know, for situations that, you know, that's been always, that's sort of been always that, that was always the Jim Rutherford line. Demetri was like, well, you got to pay a price to get the players you want in this market. And that's true. But like, there's paying a price and then there's paying your price, right? And if your price and your valuation is so far off the mark, like, you're not even, there's no very competition here, right?

Like, who else was calling up Toronto and saying, like, hey, you want our second best prospect and our first rounder for captain? I know your phone's ringing. Like, you know what I mean? Like, it's just even if, no matter what the situation may be, like going into the draft this year and taking two goalies back to back, you know, like, it just, it seemed like there was never really a true grasp on, like, what you know what is the value of a dollar you know what in this in this environment that we know there was never really that since we had that at any point yeah definitely box himself in with the mentality of identifying a player you like and then just being like I'm going to get this player regardless of the price it's like well there's other play like it's and that that's we you know

we discussed this but when people would say okay what is a 20 you know an 18 year old now that you're going to draft in the first round how much is that really going to help Sydney Crosby win another Stanley Cup. And the answer is, well, you can use that 18-year-old to get a better player than the one you got right now that can help him more down the line. So I don't know, it's, I'm very curious to see how they're going to approach the rest of this season. And I guess maybe more accurately next off season in terms of how they manage those two timelines. But that's a story for another. Is there anything else that we didn't get to with this team that we should touch on while we're here.

Like, I feel like we kind of hit most of the main talking points. I guess I will say, though, like, in terms of, I guess I was going to end with a bit of a vibe check in terms of how we're a feeling. Like, I do think that, you know, now that Aston Reese is back and you have that third line intact, if Dumlin comes back and can reunite it with Latang, it allows, you know, Marino to play with Petters, and it allows much more stability in terms of the combinations that you can use and using players the way we've already seen them succeed in the past. And so I do think there is a roadmap for this team to be the five-on-five team that we thought they'd be heading into the season.

And I guess that would give me some optimism if I were a Penguins fan that it's not like the door has been completely shut on that. Yeah. I mean, 100% agree. And it especially makes it, you know, that depth piece you mentioned. I mean, like, I'll call out Cody Cici, you know. Like I've been on like the Cody Cici Redemption Bandwagon all year long. But what it really is, Dimitri, and this. This is a real, like, you know, it sounds like I'm throwing shade on Ganchard and Jacques Martin and et cetera, but like, they got a lot of credit for Mike Sullivan just taking players and deploying them in a very sensical fashion.

You know, the story was always Gonschar rehabilitates, Jamie Alexiak, Jacques Martin rehabilitates, Justin Schultz. What really happened is like they just played him on the third pairing. And they gave him like basement level minutes against easy competition, heavy offensive zone starts, you know, sensically deploying the player. And you're witnessing right now, Cody Cici, being sensically deployed was zero expectation on him and producing some of the most fruitful performances the Penguins have had all year. And if you don't believe me, you can look up the game score and you'll see Cody Cici's performance, January 30th, in the top five of Penguin individual performances this year. That is no crap. Like, it's been that good. And the reason I bring that up is because if he's keeping those minutes, right?

And you get these guys, Brian Dumlin comes back and looks like what we've gotten used to seeing Brian Newman and look like. And that elevates Chrysler-Hang's game. And, you know, I loved what we got out of Marino and Pedersen. In the brief period of time that those two were together, Marcus Pedersen looked like a completely different player. Just carrying the puck confident as ever chipping in on offense. You know, there's like there is a roadmap here, like you said, to them being this team that can Maybe not compete right with Boston, but can be clearly the second best team in the division And you know, really you think this point the only thing like we said earlier preventing them from doing it is a touch a bad goaltending and

You know their own defensive issues Yeah, they really have been I think the thing that I would take from the past however many years of penguin's hockey is they've been a perfect sort of test case for just showing you how much context matters when it comes to taking a player and using them in a position that's in line with their own individual capabilities and how that can lead to good numbers. And then similarly, when they've had injuries and they've had to stretch some of those players kind of beyond their limits and maybe ask them to do too much, just seeing what happens to those numbers as a result.

And so it's kind of a perfect example of that. And I think, you know, to bring this thing home and to really have a full circle ending here, really just how washed up was Jack Johnson that they weren't able to get those results in that usage? That's the big question here for me. I mean, you know, it's just, it was so bad. And I told everybody, you know, there's like that scene in Jurassic Park, you know, where the kids are like freaking out because of the other parents left them. You know, and I try to like position like Mike Matheson and Cody C.C.

As Dr. Grant in that situation, because they're just not that bad. No matter what you want to say about their contract, no matter what you want to say about their puck handling skills or their decision making, they are just not that bad. And the difference for the penguins is this season is that they have been able, and has no lied, but just confidently deploy their third pairing and not have like that wounded animal that you have to hide and tuck away for a very same thing. special circumstance to bring it out so it doesn't get hurt right like that that's not a thing anymore and now it is for their fourth line but defensive defensively speaking they haven't had that problem

so i that that's just been such a change and i can't like it you know there was and i hate i you know i i'll point out i'm not too proud to say to me i won the argument at the end of the day the internal argument in pittsburgh about whether or not jack johnson was sinking the penguins yes he was and that was a problem we could say it was a problem the Rangers have the same problem now. It's just been passed on. The rhetoric in New York is the same now as it was in Pittsburgh. It hasn't changed.

Intangibles, character, locker room, et cetera, all that stuff. For whatever reason, I don't know what it is. People are just kind of inclined to sweep it under the rug. Mike Matheson must be, you can speak to this better, but he must be a video guru or a video, a person who specializes in video breakdowns, must be just such a dream because you're right. He actually does kind of bring stuff to the table,

and we've seen that over the past handful of games, whether it was that pass to himself off the boards, or I think it was the most recent game with his puck carrying through the neutral zone and kind of being able to be aggressive and create offense at an o'er. But then you also see the limitations in terms of end zone coverage where he's like covering, double covering, uh, POJ's guy and kind of taking his stick completely out of the shooting lane

and just allowing Jordan Deborah Liddowaltz the internet unattended. And it's like, what, what is going on here? How is this a decision that an NHL defenseman is making? And you sort of run that full gamut

of the pros and cons of Mike Matheson. And I guess there's the, you know, the ultimate story there is that there really are no boring shifts when it comes to his game. It really aren't. And there was a really, like,

there was a circumstance that for me, like, was the sort of penultimate, Mike Matheson moment of this. of this year, and it came off of his first goal when he was sort of floating about, you know, but the point, and Crosby made a drive to him up top, which is a signal for him to swap, right,

and take Crosby's spot and drive in. And it was just gorgeous. Not only did he do it, but the lane he chose, the position he put himself in to receive the pass. You'd think that he and Crosby had executed that play a thousand times, right? And they were just guys that have been playing together for 10 years. And that's like, I think that's the, that's the testament to what he does, you know, offensively. He really does create.

And there's some times where he carries it in and he's one on five and nothing happens and it's totally fruitless. And you're like, what just went on there? You know, but it's every time he touches the puck, you're in for a treat. Maybe it's good. Maybe it's bad. But, you know, it's, I think more recently, I think he's starting to sort of pinpoint what Todd Reardon. is actually looking for and where those moments are where within this system it is okay to do that and i think the biggest problem for the penguins has been they love to attack the puck in the defensive

zone three four guys sometimes right they want to outnumber you on the puck but what does that do well it means one guy one player has to be responsible for the slot right and oftentimes to meet you that guy's mike mathes in and it's just sometimes been really bad so you know you get you get both. I mean, you get a little bit of each. But I think the arrow is pointing up, so to speak, to steal a phrase from Mike Tomlin. And it's bottom, it's bottom of pass in Pittsburgh, no doubt. I mean, the flash, I think these brought to the circumstances has, has definitely bought him some leeway in Pittsburgh. All right. Well, you bought yourself some leeway here with the PTO cast after another great performance. Jesse, plug some stuff. What, uh, what are you

working on these days we're going to people check you out on the esphletic right now working on like an opus to teddy bluger and all of the good things he does honestly one of those players that i think it's just like a hidden gem of the national hockey league and i you know anybody that's listening to this and is going to watch the penguin soon i implore you uh to spend some time and check out young teddy who's holding it down on that third line for them and is and to be frank demetre's just some of the stuff he's doing we'll see on the video i have is just down right obscene defensively and it's pocketing really good centers night in and night out so it's very on brand jessie um thank you well this was a blast i'm glad we got to do this and we'll have you back

on sometime down the road thank you appreciate it all right so that's going to be it for today's episode of the hockey pdfcadio cast as always i wanted to thank all of you for listening to today's show uh if you enjoyed it and you want to help us out you can easily do so by going and leaving us a quick little rating and review. Five stars go a long way towards helping us out and are greatly appreciated. A lot of you have done so already. Also, if you've got the time and you're filling up for it, you can leave a quick little note there that lets potential future listeners know either why they should check out the show or what you enjoy about it. So all that goes a long way towards helping us out and it's greatly appreciated. I know a lot of you have gone ahead and done so already. And so

thank you for doing that. And hopefully those of you that have been holding out will do so now. So yeah, hopefully you enjoy today's show. We'll be back later this week with another episode. I know we've kind of slowed down the pace here over the past couple weeks, but we're going to be ramping it back up and we're going to be turning out the shows. And so we did the Penguins Deep Dive today. We've got another deep dive coming later on this week, and we're going to keep the shows coming. So thanks for listening, and here is the outro.

The Hockey PEDEOCast, Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich. and on SoundCloud at SoundCloud.com slash HockeyPedioCast.