The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 389: Six Big Questions

Episode Date: March 24, 2021

Dom Luszczyszyn joins the show to discuss six big questions we have for the remainder of the season. The topics include: Does anyone have a higher ceiling than the Avalanche? Are the Islanders the team you're most confident in from the East? Can the Panthers or Hurricanes challenge the Lightning? Team(s) we've been most surprised by / wrong about Team(s) we're most disappointed in / had higher hopes for Team(s) to keep an eye on in the second half If you haven't yet, please go take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. If you're busy and don't feel like writing anything, it's all good. Just hit the 5-star button. Each one counts, and helps us out. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a note about why you recommend people check the show out. Thanks for the help!If you're a fan of the content you hear on the show and would like more written content, you can get two free months off on your annual subscription for Elite Prospects Rinkside by using the promo code 'ILOVEEP'. That'll get you access to articles written by myself and many guests that have appeared on the show, including Cam Robinson, Rachel Doerrie, and Ryan Lambert. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitri Filipovich. We're name. He's my good buddy, Donald Schish, and Dom. What's going on, man? Not too much. I, as always, appreciate your pronunciation. My last name. You do a fantastic job, one of the best of the business. And I think you'd be proud of that. I wish Rob Pizzolo is here. He's always amazed at how well I pronounce your name, which is funny because you guys know each other very well. But he struggles with it for whatever reason. I actually sent you some homework to prep for today's show because you notoriously refuse. to prep for podcast, just using that big brain of yours to channel all the information. And you did a bit of prep. It's a fun concept idea that I have for today.

So we're going to, I've thought of like six big picture topics slash questions slash ideas or however we want to frame it. And we're going to use them as kind of entry points for the conversation and we're going to bounce around the league. And actually, to keep us in check and on pace, I thought it would be fun. I'm going to set a 10 minute timer for each one of them. So we're going to go 60 minutes, six topics. and as soon as the 10-minute timer's up,

we've done what will be done. We're just going to move on to the next one, even if we're not completed yet. So how does that sound to you? That sounds great. I don't want people to get twisted. I'm going off-brand with complete prep. I did about five minutes of homework

just to make sure I don't waste the 10-minute segments just to have some teams on my mind, but I'm going to still use the big, beautiful brain of mine to just shoot from the hip. I like it. I like it. Okay. We're setting the timer here, and we're going to go now.

All right, topic number one. Does anyone in the league right now have a better A-plus game than the Colorado Avalanche? When they put it together, when they're playing at their absolute highest potential, when everyone is in the lineup

and they're firing on all cylinders, are they the best team in the league in terms of you feeling like if they're playing their game, no one can match what they're capable of? We can save about nine minutes and 55 seconds here by saying there's no one

who's touched. the avalanche right now, but we can go a little deep in that. I think there's one team that can do it, and it's a theoretical team. It's Tampa Bay with Nikita Kutrov. I think those two teams are in a league of their own, and if we don't get that as a Stanley Cup final, it would be crushing to me, because those two teams play such an exciting brand of hockey, and they're the best teams of league I want to see that. Prep time. I was looking at the Ab's game log, because because it seems like with the last few games, every time they play,

they're just annihilating their opponent. Like, outshying them like 50 to 5, 40 to 15, and just ruining lives. And so I looked at the game logs, and since late February, their XG is 66%. Yeah, that's pretty good.

That's all right. We run the numbers. Yeah, so our last eight games in particular, I've got this down. They've outshot teams 336 to 1006. 72 and the high danger attempts during that time are 109 to 54 so doubling them up during the 70 game winning streak they're on right now they're outscoring teams 32 to 8 now you know part of it is competition three of those games against the coyotes two against the kings two against the wild one against the ducks but it's worth noting that the wild came into that two game series in colorado uh really

feeling themselves people were excited about them they were playing good hockey they were winning a bunch of games and they just got humbled in the worst way imaginable. And I know it was like a big issue talking about, you know, especially in that one game where it was the shots were like 20 to 1 at one point. And there was a bit of overcounting. I think it's overblown because it's like, all right, the difference in reality might have been the shots were 17 to 1 or 18 to 1 instead of 20 to 1 at that point. Like they certainly overcounted a few of the rebound attempts and maybe a shot or too wide. But like we know this, right? Like pretty much every rink is. I think people, I think, I think the general fan, casual fan, would be pretty alarmed to find out if they got a look behind the curtain how off the actual shot on goal totals are compared to the shots that actually hit the net because I know that they're pretty off for most rings.

Yeah, yeah, for sure. But at the end of the day, Minnesota had one shot and there's nothing that's going to change that unless they take more shots. Honestly, I, as some of you may know, I love the wild this year. their beautiful team and i'm not even mad they got whooped by the avalanche they got what they deserved and now they know how far away they are from the true top of the league but you can't really blame them for the the run the avalanche are on there doing this to anyone they face yeah the avalanche 515 profile for the season as a whole like not just looking at the seven most recent games it's pretty outrageous i think it's they're at 59 percent shot sure and expected goals and i think

analytically the big difference between the first 30 games here this year and maybe the past couple seasons when they were winning a bunch of games and doing it an exciting fashion is it seems like they're significantly better defensively as well um you know they use that trademark speed and skater talent to also in their own zone kind of aggressively just hound whoever has the puck and i found just watching them that it seems like like a team like minnesota how little amount of time they actually spent in the offensive zone with possessions because the abs are just all over them and so i think going from being kind of like a middle of the pack team like their success in the past has been largely uh you know like shooting talent driven and they weren't necessarily like dominant five-on-five

team as much as you know they obviously just had more talent than most teams but it really seems like the floor for them along with the ceiling has increased because defensively they're just an entirely different group compared to last year or even the years before yeah for sure and last year they had a fair amount of there's reason for concern that there'd be some regression this year because it seemed like it was all shooting talent, all goaltending talent. And we saw a bit of that early on the season where they couldn't buy a goal despite their dominance. And even now, they have that near 60% XG and their goals percentage is actually lower. So this is a team that's playing so well and you could make the argument that they're a bit unlucky, which is

insane for a team with the record that they have. Yeah. Like on paper, I certainly think, they're pretty flawless if you look up and down their lineup, you know, just with like Thaves, McCar, Gerard, and Byram in terms of blue lines skating ability. And then up front, I mean, McKinnon, Ranton and Landiscaug together this season are outscoring teams 18 to 5 in their 5-1-5 minutes. Saad, Cadre, and Brokowski are like just as good in terms of all the shot metrics as those guys. Like the way they've constructed this group makes a lot of sense and there's very few flaws.

I guess the potential concerns here would be twofold, right? One is the injuries, which is like impossible to account for, but it did them in towards the end of last year. So far this year, they've struggled to basically maintain a full lineup for extended periods of time. And I think the second one is relying on Grubauer. Like he's been awesome so far. But because Pavel Francis has been out and they haven't had a reliable backup, he's played 26 of their 30 games so far. And it's easier when he's only facing like 15 shots as he has in some of these recent games. but this is a guy who I think his previous, he's never played 40 games in a full 82 game season

and he's pretty much like about to match his career high so far through 30 games. And so while he's been good this year, I think that's kind of one potential thing. But you can say that for every great team, right? It's like, oh, if their goal-eatting, if their goal either gets injured, if Asseletsky gets injured, Tampa Bay screwed, it's like, yeah, that's probably the case for pretty much everyone. So I don't want to shine like too bright of a light on that because it's a small problem relative to what a lot of other teams face.

But I think a lot of people would still point to that as there one possible reservation about this group. Yeah, and I think it's unfair. I heard a lot last year. Yeah, he's been good for a while. He's been one of these analytical darling goalies. And I think when we saw in the playoffs last year that goaltending was an issue,

Grubauer was injured, if I recall correctly. And I think he's a legitimate start in this league, and he's showing that this year. by putting up probably the best numbers of his career. He has. It's kind of, it is a bit interesting that they're just straight up, like,

punting the backup position right now. They're doing for like Yonas Johansson or whatever. It's like, yeah, Hunter Miska goes out there and it just looks atrocious. And they're like, all right, we're just going to go back to Gru Bauer here.

And, uh, yeah, I guess the one of final question about this team that is, like is a collision course in that West Division inevitable with Vegas. The only reason I say that is because, yeah,

duh, obviously, but I think we probably, if we were doing this podcast before last year's postseason, would have said the same thing. And obviously, we didn't see that matchup. So is there anyone in this division that can even realistically, in your mind, get in the way of those two teams from from meeting each other in the final of that division? I really think that getting first place is huge for this division because the way St. Louis is looking and whoever cares about the next four West teams, that's a pretty easy matchup. Obviously nothing's guaranteed in hockey, but you get a big edge from facing one of those teams rather than facing Minnesota, who I think will obviously be the underdog, but we'll put up a

fight because they're at their best. They're a strong possession team as well, and now they have Caprisov who can sort of break games open. Yeah. I think the blues are interesting. People kind of seem to keep just waiting for them to go on a run. They've been impossible to evaluate because they have all these injuries pretty much the entire season. Rob Thomas and Golden Breaker are all right now. I think 10 of their final 20 games are against the abs in the nights. So I guess we'll see how they stack up against those teams, although the most recent game we saw last night against Vegas

certainly was not encouraging from St. Louis's perspective. So I wouldn't be banking on that too much, but I do think people still view them as the third best team in that division, even though they haven't necessarily looked that way so far. Yeah, it's an interesting question because sometimes people are very quick for recency bias, but then when it's a team that's won a cup recently, they're so slow to lose that reverence. And I don't think the blues currently deserve it. Obviously, Perico is a big piece, and I want to see how they do with him in the lineup and with fully healthy forward group. But they've been so frustrating.

And maybe I'm just biased because I bet on them a lot expecting better, and they continue to disappoint me, whereas the wild are the exact. opposite, so I love them. Yeah. All right. Anything else on the aves or should we move on to the next topic? We've got like 45 seconds here, but we can always bank those 45 seconds for the next topic. I mean, why not segue with a player that went from the Islanders to the avalanche? I guess I spoiled the next segment a bit, but I can't believe that how good Devon Taves has been this year for the avs. He was obviously great last year, but he seems to fit their system so well, and he plays really well with McCar and I think he's been with Gerard a bit with all the injuries but he's been unreal and it's amazing to me that the Islanders have been unreal as well without him.

That is a good segue. Let's let's get into topic number two here as I reset my timer for 10 minutes. Are the Islanders the team you're most confident in or about in the East Division? It is so tough because the East Division has some very strong teams. I don't think I've ever been like in recent years since they have that big talent exodus and they were winning Preston's trophies all year I don't think I've ever been as high on Washington as I have in this year.

They're playing legitimately better and they're actually possessing the puck a lot more. I still think the penguins are a good team as long as Malcon comes back to the playoffs. I hate being against Crosby and Malcon. I think they're a good team. And Boston is Boston. They've been disappointing lately, but with that top line with McAvoy, with their goal tending,

hard to bet against them as well. But the Islanders, man, they have been shockingly good. And I think we can both admit that they have previously been better than we give them credit for. And this feels like an entirely new level to that. It has. The analytical darling, New York Islanders. I want everyone listening to make note of that because it is certainly the case. So as of time of recording right now,

they're leading the standings now, I'll be able with a slightly worse point percentage than Washington. But at 5-on-5, what's interesting to me is how when you go from, like, across the board, right? So you go like just raw shot attempts. They're 14th in the league just under 50%. Then you go Fenwick. So taking account those, the shots that actually make it past shot blockers, they jump up to 10th in the league, go shots that actually make it on net.

They're at 8th. high danger attempts, the quality of it all, their first at 59.6% at 5-1-5 this season. Their fourth and actual goals share, fifth and expected goal share, their top five in pretty much every defensive metric across the board are both 5-1-5 in all situations. And I do think they're legit, and I brought this up on recent shows, but I think, you know, since we're talking about them here, it's a good point to investigate it a bit further. It's their ability to repeatedly do this, right?

Like I think you and I are both skeptical when we see a team that rattles off 5, 10, 15, maybe even 20 games where their raw numbers at 5-on-5 aren't good, but they're controlling the high danger attempts because ultimately that's a pretty small sample in terms of the numbers you're talking and the number of events you're kind of capturing there. But this team clearly based on Barry Draza's system, based on the way they play, based on the way they're prioritizing certain regions in the ice, are able to kind of hone in on this and lock it down better than other teams are. So I do think this is totally legit where they clearly have a very direct control and impact on the shots that are actually making it on net and what they're kind of directing with it at both ends of the ice. And so I'm all in on the Islanders. I think they're really, really good. I completely agree. And we're both analytics writers. So over the last few years, we've had some contentious arguments with Islanders fans.

Yes. in that time I've always said if the numbers are there to back up the Islanders, I will give full credit to the Islanders. And that started last year with the playoffs where they looked like this, where they were controlling the entire series against the Capitals and the Flyers. And they really held their own against the Lightning. And it was a very, very stark change from where they were last season. where obviously they were dealing with a few injuries and they weren't completely healthy, but they weren't controlling games. They weren't really controlling that high danger area,

and they weren't outscoring teams at 5-on-5 either. So it was a very stark difference, but it's a welcome one because it is one that fits what fans have seen with this team when they're at their best is how strong defensively they are and how well they can counterattack based off of that. I, it's crazy because I, I just didn't expect them to keep getting better and better based on their age, but this is year three under the Trot system, and the team is obviously fully bought in,

and this is the best version of the Allenders, I think we've seen, where their numbers look, I don't even want to know if it's as good as their fans say, might be even better. I don't think many realize they're a top five expected goals team and one of the best defensive teams in the league. Yeah, I think you and I feel the same way about this, an approach of the same way,

where as new information presents itself, will happily adjust our opinions, right? And this is, like, clearly a new level that they're playing at that they have in the past. And I think sort of holding on to your preexisting beliefs or notions about this team or just maybe some people are influenced by the fact that they, you know,

they see a low-scoring game and they think they're boring. I really like, I enjoy watching these Islanders games because I totally respect that they're able to dictate what's happening on the ice. I think that's so difficult to do

and for them to keep game in and game out doing it is impressive to me. I do think the reason why I've raised this question as most confident about any of these teams is because I do think they match up pretty well against most of the T-top teams in his division.

Now, the big X factor here is Anders Lee's injury and him being out for the season is a massive loss for them, especially because he's a high danger king in terms of what he does around the net, and not to mention all the off-ice leadership stuff and all that, but it presents this interesting opportunity for them where they have all of a sudden $7 million or so worth in cap space to go out and add someone and I think lose typically not the type of person to go and, you know, splurge on a pure rental. But if there was ever a year to do it, it feels like this would be it because they're already so sort of pot committed with this team in terms of agent contracts.

They're clearly very good. And if there's an opening that you want to address, it's probably a wing position because there's a lot of those players available. And it seems like what they need is like so, um, like obvious and easily approachable in terms of the whole they're trying to fill here. So there's plenty of options, but it seems like this would be a perfect opportunity for them to, to go all in and add someone to, to potentially bolster this group. Yeah, I definitely agree with that.

I think this is the year for them to go for it because there is definitely a clear path for them to go back to the conference finals. I think the other three teams in the east, even if we think they're all similarly talented or have their own strengths or whatever, I think the Islanders do match up really well with the two skilled teams with the Caps and Penguins and then a Boston team that really lacks defensive depth. I think the Islanders are a pretty deep team. don't have, aside from Barzell, like a true star.

They just have a lot of really good players, and that top pair with Pelican Poulac is probably one of the best in the league. Yeah, their numbers are insane. They could be here sitting here right now with us, and we wouldn't be able to pick them out and know who they are, but when they're on the ice, they are just insanely good. They're underlying numbers. I wish you could just kind of give them the Norris Trophy, because you can't split them up, but I love that they've been the two best players at the position.

So I think here's the question then. If you were fantasy bookings, if you were running the Islanders, who would you be trying to go all in with in terms of acquiring that's realistically available right now to fill that Andersley hole? It's a really tough question because I think there's two ways you can do it. You can go all in with the one big fish, and that would probably be Taylor Hall. And I've always thought what would Taylor Hall and Matthew Barzell look like together. and it's a nice thought. But they have a couple holes with Dalekhole and Kamarov,

especially with Leigh out, that there's probably two holes in the top nine that they can fill. And I wonder if it would make more sense to get two wingers and sort of really beef up the top nine instead of going all in on someone like Hall, maybe get someone like Granland or one of the other, I guess, mid-level mid-six wingers that sort of fit the Islander's stall, I don't know if Hall is a Islander's type player, but he's certainly exciting when he's at his best.

I think he's an Islander's type of player beyond just the interesting fit with Matt Barzal in the sense that I think there's a misconception where it's like he's not necessarily this pure skill player. Like I think when Hall's at his best and most effective, he's just like forechecking the crap out of the puck, right? And that would I think fit in theory with the Islanders and the way they want to play in the pace they want to play at. So yeah, you know, on the defensive side of things, it would be interesting. But I just think, purely in terms of like getting the puck up the ice and then going and retrieving it and trying to create chances that way he would be a good fit but i think part of what increases his team ceiling

as well is you know oliver walstrom comes in and and has a legitimate weapon of a shot and start scoring a bunch of goals for them and just finding these additional sources of offense is so huge for a team like this so whether it's him or kefer bellows or you know no adopson when he comes back i do think the ceiling of this team is elevated because there's all of a sudden you know just different players stepping up and contributing and and wow we just spent like 10 minutes just just raving about the europe calendars in the pdf cast it's uh what a time to be alive and i was looking at the depth chart and like what my model says and immediately my eyes were drawn to waltstrom because i i didn't know how good he's been this year my model apparently likes him a lot thinks he's a

strong almost top sick quality player and he's only getting like 12 minutes per night so that's good for them yeah yeah seven goals in the last 15 games six of them at 5-15, that will certainly do. All right, our 10 minutes are up here. As we move over to the other division out east, we're going to go to the top of the central. I'm going to start the clock here, and here's the question. Can either the Panthers or the hurricanes realistically push slash challenge

Tampa Bay in a potential playoff series? Don't say no. Don't say no. I'm not going to say no. I think we've got to fill nine minutes here because I think it's, similar to the Colorado question, where we're just going to wax poetic maybe about Tampa Bay. I love the Hurricanes.

I think they're a great team. The fact that they're getting excellent goaltending right now is a beautiful thing to see. Alex Nzelkevich has been unreal, and I think it's kind of funny. He's been unreal since I think I was messaging someone, and I didn't have a projection for him for a game, and I used a sort of,

of a there's a word I'm thinking of a stand-in so if I don't have a placeholder. Yeah, I just put guy and Nadelcovich was so bad before that that I had a second placeholder under that for terrible. And since then he has like a 935 say percentage.

And I have him as one of the best goalies in the league. So I think he got to shut out that game and I immediately said I'm not putting him as terrible anymore. He seems really good. And that's a great thing for the hurricanes. They're going to have a, three-headed goalie monster, not sure what they're going to do there when Marazic comes back, but he seems like the real deal and they're deep at forward, they're

deep at D and they're the closest thing to lightning in that division. But the big question with the lightning is will Kuturav be back for the playoffs? And if he is, then no one's touching that team. They'll need a bit of luck to get by. If he's not healthy, then I think Carolina is right up there. Yeah, I get the feeling that Nikita Kutraub will be healthy by the time game one of the post season starts i just call it a hunch um a hunch well okay so let's do the hurricanes first here you you touch on a lot of stuff i do i'm interested in them right because they've been this darling for a couple years and um have fallen a bit short i do think that they they do have the top end talent right now to match these teams right like if you just especially

watch recently the combination of martin chas and sebashanahoe has been ridiculously fun to watch and the chemistry of those two guys kind of playing off of each other. And I think, you know, NHS just playing for Carolina. It's like, it took a while for Sebastian Aalho himself to shake the underrated tag because, like, everyone I think now just knows how good he is. But like, NAHS, it seems like the next obvious candidate for everyone's column about who the next breakout player or next underrated player is. It's going to be him.

But he's already there. He's a top line guy in terms of talent and he's producing ridiculous numbers so far. So, you know, with Aho, with Netsch, with Svetnikov, their power play has been awesome this season. And I love the wrinkles they've had there with Vinny Trochik before he got hurt, kind of in that middle spot of the ice and what they've been doing there. So I do think they can match them there. And they certainly have the five-on-five sort of possession numbers to match up as well. So I think it's a bit unfair to be comparing anyone to Tampa Bay because you're right when they're healthy. They're in a world of their own.

But I certainly think just in terms of like the pace they could play at, like there's no reason to believe that the Carolina wouldn't be able to, you know, go punch for punch for them and really push them in a series because you look like the organizational depth here is remarkable. Similar to what we're talking about with Colorado where there's just so few holes. And if there are injuries, they have players that have been able to just step in like a Jake Bean or at Alex Ndilichikovic and it gave them legitimate production. So there's very little not to like with the Hurricanes team. Yeah, and they've been doing it for a while without Terivinen and Trochev and still looking pretty strong in the process. So right now they're tied with the Lightning in terms of XG, and they may be the better possession team right now, but the Lightning have that shooting talent edge. They have the Vasilevsky edge with the way he's been playing this year. And I think with those two things combined, it's hard not to take Tampa, but the Hurricanes will definitely have a chance.

we haven't talked about I included the Panthers in this list I do think they're a notch below but just in terms of the production so far I felt like it was fair to include them and I will say you know you're talking earlier about how like it takes people time

to adjust but then if you win maybe you give teams more credit than they deserve I think for this Panthers team people are still seem to be kind of like oh are the Panthers actually good and I'm here to report that I do genuinely believe they're a very good team they might not be

in that tier but this is more legit than not i think like if you look at the underlying numbers and it's clear it the thing that gives me comfort is it's it's very easy to sort of point to the adjustments they made where it's like all right they split barkov and hubertoe up barcov is finally playing up to his potential as a top two-way guy his expected goals and high danger totals are just insane in the 60s and um you know it's there's questions with goaltending obviously and um um I think they're not nearly as deep as those two other teams, but just in terms of the top-hand talent and being able to have Barkov while he's playing at this level

out there for 25 of the 60 minutes, does give them an interesting puncher's chance, I think, in terms of not necessarily winning a series, but definitely not being sort of completely outclassed, because I do think they're good. Yeah, I agree. They're out there in XG. Barcov is playing the best hockey of his career.

He should run away with the Selke with the way he's playing. I have concerns about their bottom six and some of their depth defensemen, but the way their stars are playing, it's easy enough to overlook where I think they're a legitimately good team. My biggest issue is with Brobrovsky. I don't have much faith in him. Chris Dreger has been much better for the past two years, and if he starts in the playoff series, then I have a lot more faith in the Panthers. But I don't think that would be the case. how short the leash would be. But I just don't have faith in Bobrovsky.

That's the biggest reason I can't really put them in the same tier as the hurricanes right now. Yeah, I agree with that, but I will say when the argue, and listen, with these top teams, you do kind of have to nitpick at the end of the day. But who knows what you're going to get from a goalie over a seven game series? Like I think when it's close enough that that's the call, like certainly I feel more confident and then Andre de Vasselowski's going to outperform pretty much any goalie in a series. And I think that's kind of a unique case. But for the most part, for a lot of these goalies, it's like, yeah, they could very conceivably play four out of seven bad games or four out of seven good games and outperform the goalie of the other side of the ice.

And that could be the difference. So I think that's something that's important to keep in mind in all these conversations about who's a better team coming to playoffs. But in terms of the regular season, I think that's certainly fair. Is there anything else about any of these three top teams in that division that we should get to? I'll always have a couple minutes here? I'm not too sure, but I do think a lot of credit needs to go to Aaron Eckblad on Florida because he's looking like the elite defenseman. A lot of people hoped he would be when he was drafted first overall.

It took a bit of time. He had that great first year, but a lot of people think that was mostly Brian Campbell-driven. And after that, it was sort of up and down, a lot of meh. But the last two seasons, he's been legitimately a force for the Panthers. And when he's on with Barakov, they're a dominant group. And I think that's a big part of what makes them, I'm not sure if they're a cup contender, but they're definitely a dark horse team this year. And they have that thing that every cup contender has, which is an elite number one center,

an elite number one D. I think having those two pieces is so key. Yeah. So they've been good at 515 this year. I think they're also like sixth or something in terms of power play scoring as well on a permanent basis. And it makes sense given the personnel they have. And that's kind of a next factor here as well where in the past they had a good power play

because their top end was really good. But it was kind of a one-trick pony or a one-dimensional team in that sense. Recognized employees with custom ink. Show customer appreciation with custom ink. Outfit your teams with custom ink. Easily add your logo to your logo to your. favorite products and brands at customink.com. Make custom ink your custom gear partner with great customer service, quality products, and all in pricing, along with personalized help when you need it,

and an easy-to-use website when you don't. All backed by a 100% satisfaction guarantee. Do it all today at custom ink.com. I'm really, I'm really fascinated about that. I keep talking about them in the podcast and I keep watching their games because it's very rare that you see a team go through such a transformation from one season to the next like this without like they've just certainly changed their personnel but the top players are still the same and they're getting so much more out of them and it's not just the pucks going into the net it's like the fundamental process and the underlying numbers are so much better than they've been in the past and so for me that's that's always interesting when you see a team uh undergo a transformation or a makeover like that

yeah for sure um all right let's take a our minute or 10 minutes are up here we're going to a quick breaker here from a sponsor and then we're going to finish up our uh our remaining three questions all right question number four what's the team that you've been the most either surprised by and let's say pleasantly um or you felt like you were the most kind of wrong about in terms of um your preseason expectations either where your model had them or what you were expecting from them heading into year so i did just i did some prep uh for this one one. I looked at what the underlying team strength my model had for each team at the start of the year, and I compared it to what they have now. And the biggest surprise, by far, not even close, was the Minnesota Wild.

Yeah. Well, I think that's fair. So what was beyond just Carol Caprisov being this good right out of the gate? What do you feel like were the, what do you think accounts for those differences between? your models, preseason expectations and what they've actually gotten out of their players so far? There's a couple things. Caprisov is by far the biggest one because at the start of the year, I had nothing but KHL production and couldn't really go off that very much. And based on what he was in the KHL and his age, I just had a conservative expectation of a second line player. And he's been so much more than that. He's been a legitimate top line. liner. He looks elite on some nights and he's looking like he might be one of the best wild

players ever. And I know that's almost an outrageous thing to say for someone who is like 26 games into their career, but he looks that good. And almost every night, he's a huge difference maker. Aside from that, I think Joel Erick's taking a real big step. And the big question early on was how is this team going to do anything with their center depth? And Joel Erickson said, okay, okay, I took offense to that, and I'm going to show you guys what I can do. And what is he doing? He's putting up selky numbers of his own and being one of the best shutdown centers in the league while putting up a bit more offense than he's usually capable of. I think on the Caprizo point, it's a tricky subject because it is

so early into his career, but I think, you know, not to be a huge eye test guy here, but just from watching the games, quote unquote, I really do think he is a generational playmaker in terms of his ability to routinely set teammates up for just significantly higher quality scoring chances than they're probably going to get otherwise, and maybe that our ability to quantify right now in terms of what that's actually worth, is. And so I know his underlying numbers are necessarily, in terms of the shot metrics and stuff, aren't particularly great. But I do think his impact on the offensive end in terms of being able to create for both himself and for others, and especially as the talent around him improves over time

and some young players come in and hopefully add some more finishing talent around him, I do think the sky is the limit there. So I completely agree with that. And the goaltending, I think, as well, is a big deal here because and I don't know how much of this is you know wonky rink bias numbers in terms of you know how good they actually were defensively in the past compared to

maybe we were unfairly attributing their goaltending being like catastrophically bad because of the shot locations because if you look at Devin Dubnix expected goals numbers and his goal saved above expected and stuff over the past couple years it's like how is how is this even possible I think he was like a minus 20 in like 30 games last season. I'm like that seems almost hard to believe but um he

he certainly wasn't very good towards the end and so bringing in cam talbot who I think of now as like the perfect slightly above league average goalie which is huge for this team especially given her defensive metrics and capo cockanen in his rookie year like for them to have the type of goaltending they're getting from those two compared to what they got in the past I do think is a significant step up as well. yeah for sure just getting plus goal tending has been a huge boost for them i also have to credit the yonis brodie and matt dumba pair because they've been on that pellic poolock level in terms of controlling play and being one of the better shut down pairs in the league so a lot of things are going right for the wild it's hard to know for sure how much of that is quality of competition

because they've had a pretty soft schedule and they just got annihilated by the avalanche so there's some room for concern there but I think they're the real deal. Yeah, well, especially as that opening for the third best team in that division. All right, I've got, I do think we actually talked about the wild

in terms of our preseason over-unders and being higher on them than the market was when we did that podcast with Rob. All right, the team that I was the most wrong on was the Chicago Blackhawks because I know they're reeling right now they've lost six of their past seven games they got smoked uh out in florida but they're still hanging on through a fourth and final playoff spot in that division and maybe this is as much about uh the their peers in terms of how bad the other teams have been but i went into

the season thinking there was an outside shot that chicago might be the worst team in the league just because with doc and taves out i felt like no one had a worse center group no one had bigger question marks on their blue line. And then I was looking at that Colin Delia, Malcolm Suban combination, and then, and thinking, all right,

like, this is going to be really bad. Like, I don't see their path towards, like, not giving up at least four goals against per game. And obviously, I didn't count for your boy,

Kevin Lankin and stepping in and having a two-month bender. He's come back down earth a little bit, uh, recently. But, you know, this team still has pretty ugly five-on-five numbers.

And I think, uh, there's a lot at play here. and I get that it's kind of this young team with a lot of rookies in the lineup. And so for them to be even kind of keeping their head slightly above water at a 500 record and potentially being in a playoff spot and the market, it's going to lead to a lot of Jeremy Colleton has been the coach of the year. And I certainly don't think that's the case.

I guess part of what I underestimated is just the high end skill on the team and the forward group in terms of like their shot metrics are very bad, but they're able to convert opportunities. they have a very good power play. They create a bunch off of these kind of rush chances and broken down plays with their top six. And so I guess maybe that's kind of a bit of a lesson moving forward in terms of projecting who the worst teams are going to be because they certainly like I should have accounted more for I guess the high end scale. I couldn't have seen Lanken incoming and giving them league average goal tending. But I may be underestimated how good at least their power play scoring would be.

And so maybe if I had accounted for that better, I wouldn't have thought that they'd be the worst team. yeah uh well they had probably one of the worst defense corps in the league so that was a fair guess for both of us it still looks pretty bad but i mean when you have canaan de brinket playing the way they are uh and you have a goaltender like kevin lincolnin doing what he's doing it really hides some of those issues i remember early on in the season you you messaged me because I I think I tweeted that the coyotes were the worst team in the league

and that was just a joke because on Twitter I just nothing I say on Twitter is serious I just joke around and mostly it's just me complaining about bets because I don't tweet about wins I only complain about losses and I bet on the coyotes

and they looked awful and I was trying to get some reverse jinxing going and you said actually the Blackhawks are the worst team in the league and I think immediately after that they showed you were quite wrong about that which is, honestly, at the time, I thought the same thing.

I kept having bets on the Blackhawks and I'm like, I don't want to be here. I don't want this to happen. And then Kevin Lanken happened and he's probably one of the greatest things that's ever happened to me in my life. I love that man like he was my own son. I literally tweeted that this man is putting my kids to college and that is not a joke. He is my hero. Yeah. I just, I watch the games and I was just like, I don't understand how this is happening.

I'd watch and I'd be like, how are the, how did that park not go in? What is going on? It was driving me crazy because, you know, I think I generally do a pretty good job of like acknowledging the room for error and especially in our preseason predictions being like, all right, this is my best educated guess, but who knows what's going to happen. But I felt like I went out on a bit of a limb in terms of because everyone was like, all right, Detroit and Ottawa are going to be obviously the worst teams. And I was like, I don't know.

Like this Blackhawks team, like if you just look at the important positions, it looks very bleak. like I just don't see it. And I obviously thought that like Nashville and Dallas and even Columbus would be significantly better than they've been so far. And if they had been, maybe Chicago, because I know they've banged a bunch of points against those teams, maybe their outlook would look significantly differently right now. But at the same time, credit them, I guess, for not being as bad as those teams because they found ways to win games so far. And the fact that they're hanging on for a playoff spot is pretty remarkable now. That is going to result in a first round series against Tampa Bay.

that I think is going to be aggressively bad. Yeah. But still, they've been much better than I thought they'd be. So kudos to them, I guess. Yeah, my model had them eighth because I guess it doesn't really believe in their five-on-five play and figures they should regress. But I kind of want to see them make the playoffs just to see what my model thinks the series probability would be between the loaded Tampa Bay Lightning with Nikita Kudraub back versus

the Blackhawks who are led by Pew Souter on the first line center position. A lot of David Kempf. Yeah. I will say... It could be the most lopsided probability I've ever had. That's why I want to see it. It will. And of course, they're going to win game one somehow.

And people are going to be like, you stupid idiot dumb. But no, I do think, like, I will say this. There's certain plays and certain nights that they look really, really especially bad because they have young players making. mistakes. But I much prefer this to just rolling out a bunch of veterans there and trying to be slightly less bad. Like at least like the upside for for them having big scoring nights or potentially making stuff happen, not to mention getting better down the line. I do think is significantly elevated compared to the alternative the teams sometimes do. Like you look at a team like Anaheim

sometimes and it's like, why are, why are these players playing? Like they're going to be bad regardless. Just let all of your young players be bad rather than this 32 year old who we know is bad and has no positive future outlook. Like, I just don't get it sometimes. Yeah, and Anaheim is definitely one of those teams, though they've gotten Ziegress and Drysdale in some games recently, which is probably the most exciting thing about being an Anaheim fan these days. All right. Category number five, it kind of related to this one. I view this one, and I think both you and I, you pick Minnesota, I pick Chicago in terms of, like, teams we've been pleasantly surprised by the alternative teams we've been most disappointed by, and that

could be anything. I view it as like kind of like you had higher hopes for them heading into the air and you've just been wildly let down by them. Is there, is there anyone that sticks out to you in that category? Hmm. Let me think about which team somehow, despite having a very low bar, managed to dive even further into a trench in the deepest pits of the ocean and somehow look worse than they ever have in a decade-long rebuild. I think I'm going to say the Buffalo Sabres. Yeah, I felt like you were leading us there. Yeah.

I mean, you know, you, the two of us talked about this with Rob in terms of when, like, your model tells you something for gambling purposes versus, like, the feel of like, oh, God, this feels bad. With the Sabres, it's like, it does, I know it's not the most anticalical thing, but it does feel like there's just like a certain unquantifiable stink around the organization in terms of like, it's whatever your expectations are, it's going to be significantly worse. And I don't know how to account for that except just like having no expectations. But it's like it's almost impossible to look at what they went into the season with and what they've gotten out of it and reconcile those two because like no one should be this bad. Like, they've lost 25% of their schedule in a row. Like, losing, like, 14 games in a 56 game season in a row is really bad. I think they've lost eight of those 14 by exactly three goals.

Like, it's just stunning to me where they've been shut out as many times so far the season as winning games. Like, they almost have the number of goals they've scored as a team and Connor McDavid's points are like in a virtual race here. Like, I just don't understand how there's, there's, nothing that we could, uh, that could have prepared us for this, I guess is the way to put it, right? Like it's like, even if you're like, all right, the Buffalo Sabres, it's a tough division. They're not going to be good. This is significantly worse than anyone could have possibly expected. The worst part for me is I was convinced my model was wrong the other way. There was so much hype about the sabers this year and how this year might be the year. They crawl their hole. They finally

turn things around. When I wrote my season preview, I feel like I was duped by this hope. And the entire preview was written in the most optimistic way possible because I felt so bad for Sabres fans who were very excited about this team for once. And they thought this was finally a year where they could at least compete. And it's heartbreaking to me that that was the expectation and the want. They didn't want to be good. They didn't want to be great. They wanted to just look like a team.

And they have not looked like a team this year. They have looked so pathetic on a night-to-night basis. And it honestly is painful to watch. They are, I don't know if you follow the Down Bad Patrol on Instagram, but the Buffalo Sabers are the epitome of Down Bad right now because nothing is going right for them. It's just, it's so sad that like Steve Eiserman is like actively like I don't care about this season. My hockey team is going to suck and makes no, uh, you know, no, like doesn't isn't going to waste his energy or his time trying to convince you otherwise. And like the Buffalo Sabres are

like siding Taylor Hall and making trades and actively being like, all right, we're going to be like decent this year. And they're just significantly worse. I just don't, I don't get it. It's, it's wild. It's depressing. I, I'm like morbidly. interested in them like I can't look away like I tweet about them sometimes just because I'm like I think the most boring teams are the ones who are kind of in the middle and mediocre I think if you're either exceptionally good or exceptionally bad that is interesting to me and you have my attention and I just I can't look away from this team but it just doesn't feel good watching them we're talking about them I think I had the national predators on this list because they just depress me like they're just it's it's not fun to watch it's I mean, I know they've had injuries, right? Like, you know, they don't have Ryan Ellis now. They don't have Roman Yose in the lineup. And I get it.

But it still feels like they should be getting more out of the personal they have. And I think, like, Philip Forsberg is one of my five players that I enjoy watching the most. And even sometimes I don't even want to bother turning on their games even to see him because I just know I'm not going to like what I'm seeing. And so for them to be this bad in a season where that fourth spot is so open for the taking for anyone in that central division is a really tough build. swallow and I know all eyes are on them moving forward for what they're going to do with the trade deadline and with that cole and grandland and holla and maybe even ryannella's when he comes back but it's bad and they clearly need to make some sort of changes because they can't just keep expecting to roll this over and expect better results yeah uh i think we were both on the

prez bed wagon super early when they swept the black hawks that year and went to the stanle a vinyl. They were one of the OG analytic darlings that really, I guess, solidified the movement because a lot of us were big on them and a lot of mainstream people were like, no, Blackhawks, they're so good. They have Cain and Dave's. They're elite. And that upset was huge for us. A little victories like that, I think, helped the movement, even if a lot of other stuff we get wrong, those moments, I think help. And I, Predators will have a special place in my heart always for that, but it's been downhill since, and it's been heartbreaking to see that nothing more has come out of it.

They didn't end up going back, and they won the President's trophy the year after, and still lost in the second round, but this is a bitter end. Well, they lost in the Stanley Cup final. They lost in the second round. That was that epic 70 game series against the Jets, which I don't fault them for losing. And then they lost in the first round, and then they lost in the play. play in round and now they're not going to make the playoffs and they're going to need to make significant changes before they get back to playoffs and it's about as bad of a downward trajectory

as you can have. I also included the Philadelphia Flyers on this list just because I had no idea what to expect from them heading into the year. Obviously how last season ended wasn't good where they were thoroughly outplayed by the New York Islanders net series but they had played so well in the second half of last season before the stoppage and I guess it's tough to evaluate them similar to what we were saying about the San Luis Blue where there's this crazy stat I saw on Twitter today where they're playing game 31 this evening on Tuesday night.

This is the first time they've used the same 18 skaters in consecutive games since the first two games of the year. And so, you know, they've been hit really hard by COVID. They've had a bunch of abs. It says Sean Couturier missed an extended period of time. He's still playing but banged up now.

And so it seems almost kind of unfair to evaluate them because we just don't know what kind of line up who you're going to see playing on any given night for them, but their performance from one night to the next has been, I think, as volatile as anyone's in the league where you could tell me they're going to beat whoever the best team in the division you think is, let's say the Islanders on one night, and then they're going to lose nine nothing to the Rangers on the next, and it's all within the realm of possibility for the Philadelphia Flyers. So maybe it's not surprising given the track record of this team over the years,

but I did expect more from the heading into this year and I've been disappointed by their performance. the flyers are probably one of the most chaotic teams ever this era of the flyers where I don't know if you've I don't know if you read my flyers preview but the flyers have a bit of even year odd year magic where they alternate based on what the expectations are so if they're expected to be good they suck and if they're expected to suck they are amazing and they've alternated that path every year for the last like six or seven years and And it's amazing because they end up right where we always expect the flyers to be, which is right in the middle. Yeah, which is pretty much what they're going to do this season if things only change.

So remarkable. Good stuff from the flyers. All right. Final question here. Last 10 minutes. Team to watch in the second half. And you can take this anyway. It could be because they're poised to make a run and you think they're actually better than they've shown so far.

If you think they're going to be significantly better or worse than they've been. Or if you just think they're going to be particularly active or involved or we're going to be talking about them down. the stretch. So who do you have for this one? So I'm actually writing about this right now. Every around like the halfway point, I look at each team's point pace and their projection and sort of look at a deviation and make like a, I guess a bit of a piece on what to expect in the second half, why certain teams will regress one way and the other. And the top three in terms of positive regression are, well, one of them is the sabres because you just just can't be that bad.

You can't. And that's where maybe a model is wrong. And sometimes you can be that bad. And I think the Sabres might be the exception. So we'll see what happens there. And the other two were Dallas and the Rangers. Dallas is a strong possession team. They're a bit banged up.

But I think when they get Sagan and Bishop back, they shouldn't have too much trouble getting into that fourth spot. But I guess we'll see if Columbus makes a push or Chicago keeps being an interesting team, but Dallas has a 54% XG. They have some forward depth. They have two elite defenders. I think they're going to have a strong second half

if they can survive the schedule crunch. Yeah, they are going to play a lot of games in a short period of time, which is like it's good that they have those games in hand, but they need to make the most of them. Yeah, I'm with you. That's an interesting one. The Rangers certainly, like,

if you just look at the first, fact that I think they've been very unlucky if you compare their goal differential to their actual standings points. If you just consider the fact that they got like no offensive production from Mika Zabedad for the first 25 games or whatever. And now he's finally starting to come alive. Panarin missed an extended period of time. Like everything pretty much went as badly as it could. And I do think that, you know, assuming Schuster can come back and be what he's been so far in his career for them. They're an interesting team. I had a different team in that division. I have the Boston Bruins because they're sitting at fourth in the east right now, third and point percentage.

They're really tricky to evaluate for me because they have a lot of the hallmarks that we've come to expect and appreciate from them in the past, right? They have great defensive metrics. They have two really good goalies. Their top line is the best in the league, if not the second best behind Colorado's. They're scoring at the ninth highest power play rate. So they have a lot going for them, but then you look at it at five on five, the only team scoring less frequently than them so far are Buffalo, Nashville, Detroit, and Arizona, and slightly ahead of them are Anaheim and L.A., and that's not a neighborhood you want to be in. Now, their 29th in student percentage, but their 29th and expected goals and high danger attempts for, and so they're really struggling to create offensively, especially when their top line isn't on the ice. And so it's tough to evaluate them because Pastor Neck missed the first seven games.

Right now they're not playing because of COVID. Their blue line's been a mess. Like Charlie McAwey's been amazing. But even after losing Krug and Chara, guys like Matt Griswick, Lozon, Carlo most recently have all been out for extended periods of time. It's just been a revolving door in the blue line. And so if they do get healthy, I do think they can make a run because 11 of their final 28 games, I believe, are against Buffalo and New Jersey. And so that's very good. and if they can stop being this bad at 5-1-5,

I do think there is a higher ceiling they can achieve. I'm not sure how high that is for them this year, given everything that's going on, but I do think they're probably are, from a talent perspective, better than they've been so far. Which is a bit crazy because they're on over 82 games would be a 105-point pace. Yeah.

And they haven't played the Sabres at all, while the islanders and capitals have sort of feasted on that pathetic franchise. So it is a bit shocking to me that they're so mediocre at 5 on 5 this year compared to other years, but I think based on what we've seen in past years, they can play a lot better than this. And I do agree that they can be a strong team to watch in the second half. But I think also that might have more to do with the other East teams maybe regressing a bit because they probably shouldn't be on these 110, 10, 115 point bases.

Not that the islands or capitals aren't great teams. We've already waxed poetic a bit about the islanders, but maybe just not to the record that they currently have. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. Maybe if you look at it, it's like, especially on the blue light, if it doesn't get better, maybe this Bruins team isn't what they've been in the past.

But I do think there are performance indicators there that make me cautiously optimistic that they can be better. It's interesting that they've been like one of the teams that's been linked to Matthias Heckholm. And I get it because I just mentioned that revolving door on the blue line and like how few reliable players they've had playing defense beyond Charlie Magaloy this season. But for me, like the priority would be trying to get that that second line going, right? Like finding another playmaker who will potentially be cheaper than Matissecholm to revitalize David Creachia a bit and get another scoring line because as you saw in the past like when they've

been at their best, it's it's having a second or a third five-on-five line. and consistently generate offense to back up what the top guys are doing. I agree, but I also wonder how much of that is on the fact that their defense is McAvoy-Grislich and four replacement level or worst defensemen. And what having that a third top pairing caliber guy would mean for that team. Yeah. No, certainly, especially like getting the puck and advantageous positions for those guys not having David Kreach, you have to do everything at this point of career.

Yeah, no, I think that's fair. There's certainly a couple of ways to go about addressing that. But I think they need to do something. Their resources are pretty limited in terms of what they can do to accomplish that. But it seems like that never stops them from being linked to pretty much every single player that's available. So I'm really curious to see what they're going to do. So if you were running the Bruins, you'd be trying to shore up that blue line, or would you, is there a name that you'd be kind of trying to target? I feel like I'd expect a lot more from Jake DeBrusk this year.

and I still have faith that maybe he can bounce back a bit, but I would be aiming for Ekholm. I'd be going all in on the Bruins core as much as I can, because who knows how much longer they have with Bergeron and Marchand, and that defense needs to be fixed with someone. And I think Ekholm is the best option, because this year he's actually driving offense more than he's driving defense. And I think that'll help a lot from,

getting the most out of that middle six. Because if you think about it, at the start of the year, a lot of us were pretty content with what that middle six looked like. And all those guys there have had success in the past. And I think what's hurting them is playing so often with these terrible defensemen. Yeah, because if you just thought about it in terms of pairs, it's like, all right, Krati and the brusk and then Charlie Coyle and Craig Smith, like, yeah, that seems like it makes sense.

Obviously, Andra Kasha being hurt again, doesn't help matters. but yeah, we'll see. They're kind of the team that I tabbed for a potential rise in the second half, so we'll see if that happens. All right, Dom, our time here's up. Plug some stuff. What, you mentioned that piece you're working on. What else are you working on?

Where can people check out your work? Give the listeners, all that good stuff. Well, I think that's the only thing I'm working on right now. That's it right now. I don't really plan too far ahead unless I have big pieces coming, and I, sorry to say, I don't have anything big at my sleeve. No bangers coming? No bangers coming.

I might need to get out the banger notebook and start really thinking about great pieces to write. But I'll have that. I'll have 16 stats. I'll have an awards watch coming up. So I don't count those as bangers. Those are just something you've got to expect for me these days. But they'll be coming up over the next week or so. Yeah, you have to expect greatness.

I like the idea of a bangor notebook. Just having a notebook. Bangers only. I like that. All right, man. well, this is a blast. I'm glad we got to do this, and we'll check in with you sometime down the road. Sounds good. Always a pleasure. All right. That's going to be for today's episode of the Hockey PDOCast. Hopefully you enjoyed listening.

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