The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 409: The Goalie Carousel

Episode Date: July 27, 2021

Kevin Woodley joins the show to discuss the goalies that should be available this offseason, and the teams they'd fit best on moving forward. Topics include: Carolina's decision to move on from Nedel...jkovic What the Hurricanes do in net next Why John Gibson is better than his recent numbers The effect playing on a bad team has on goalies How good Darcy Kuemper really is Matching goalie playing style to team playing style Jonathan Bernier's environment past two seasons Which of the two goalies Vegas will pick Route Seattle took with their goalie choices How much Freddy Andersen has left in the tank The second tier of free agent goalies If you haven't yet, please go take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. If you're busy and don't feel like writing anything, it's all good. Just hit the 5-star button. Each one counts, and helps us out. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a note about why you recommend people check the show out. Thanks for the help!Submit your Blue Wire Hustle application here: http://bwhustle.com/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 On a beautiful run through the park, on a pleasant day, you can easily get lost. No, no, no. She didn't kill him. Huh? In your true crime podcast. It was the pool guy. So obvious. Whatever motivates you works for us. It's all about letting your run be your run. And Brooks is here for every runner.
Starting point is 00:00:21 Doing the research and sweating the details to create gear that works for you. It's your run. Brooks, run happy. progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey P.D.O.cast, post, Dimitri. Welcome to the Hockey PeeDOcast. My name's Dimitri Philipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Kevin Woodley.
Starting point is 00:01:01 Kevin, what's going on, man? Not much. It's a beautiful summer here in Vancouver. Looking forward to getting through this next week or so, uh, free agency. And then maybe enjoy a little bit of this gorgeous weather. We're having a little more often. It's just nice to be able to do a, uh, in-person show with you.
Starting point is 00:01:18 After the past year and a half that we've gone through. The Zoom, the Zoom doesn't. capture it as well. I need to see your reactions here in the flesh when I give you my crazy goalie opinions. So, well, as long as you know, we're not filming. So that's the, that's the upside. I can have those facial expressions, then deny later if it, if it implies badly that ever that I don't like a guy, I can just say I didn't make that face. The Zoom's a little tougher to do that on. I always have to be careful, especially as, uh, unkept as I look these days, ask if I'm on the Zoom once. Hey, are we using the, uh, video two on this one, guys? So,
Starting point is 00:01:50 let me tie this hair back. It's a little unruly. I like it. All right, so here's the plan for today. We're going to take a spin on the off-season goalie carousel here because I think we'd both agree there's a number of interesting goalie options. And it's a very imperfect goalie class in terms of who's available, depending on which way you want to look at it or what you want to value.
Starting point is 00:02:12 There's some really interesting options. There's also some ones that are potential red flags. There's also a number of teams that I think are definitely looking to make changes, hopefully in their case looking to upgrade. We'll see whether that actually manifests. But it's a match made in heaven for us from a content perspective is trying to sort of line it up and figure out where they're going to go and what they're going to do because it really is like it's kind of like a blind date sort
Starting point is 00:02:33 of where it's like you're just putting a goalie and a team together and hoping it fits. Well, I think you undersold it. I think this could be the greatest game of musical chairs. I know a lot of people said this last year. Yeah. The greatest game of musical chairs in terms of goaltuning that we've ever seen. And I think it started already. I remember last year actually.
Starting point is 00:02:49 And actually, honestly, the reason I looked it up the first time was after Edmonton re-signed Mike Smith. And they went short-term on him. And one of the things I said, I have a weekly radio hit in Edmonton. And when I kind of was trying to justify it, one of the things I said was like, listen, look at the class next year. Like there are even more free agents. Everybody's going short-term. Like, this almost could become an annual thing. I think when you add the expansion draft, it made it, you know, even greater movement. But like, this could be unprecedented. by the time we get to the end of it in terms of goaling movement. We've already seen it, both the expansion draft and Alex Nadelcovic getting moved already. So as this increases, as teams go shorter term on goaltenders, which at the risk of my goal union card, I would always advise, like term would be the one thing if I was a GM that I would avoid. I think that the importance of being able to match that goaltender to the environment he's going to play and will just only increase year after year.
Starting point is 00:03:48 Okay, well, that's a good starting point for us. Let's talk about the hurricanes because I think it's a natural starting spot for us. They've already made some choices in that. They traded away Alex Nadikovic, somewhat surprising. I think what they do next, especially, because they don't have any NHO goalies under contract at the moment, is going to have a real domino effect on the market, depending on which way they go with it. The first of the Nadeikovic thing, I thought it was surprising in the sense that I thought the acquies, I thought the acquies, position cost for the for the Red Wings made it a no-brainer for them. Normally in a vacuum might say a team that's in the sort of stage of the organizational life cycle the Red Wings are
Starting point is 00:04:27 in investing any assets in a goalie is kind of dumb because it's going to be years before they have a good NHL team. And Adelkovich himself is turning 26 with a minimal track record so he doesn't necessarily scream a goalie of the future regardless of his results last year. But for a third and a UFA goalie they weren't going to retain, I thought it was a no-brainer for them. And that's that was the surprising part for me, just seeing how little Carolina was able to get back in return for a goalie that at least showed legitimate signs of promise last season. Yeah, and I think for Detroit, it makes a ton of sense because if you looked at their sort of prospect depth chart, it was pretty thin.
Starting point is 00:05:01 And then when you add COSA as the selection at 15th overall in this draft right after making that move, like there's your bridge, right? There's your gap to your next guy. There's Steve Eiserman in a lot of ways taking a swing at his, you know, is Andre Vasselowski with the Detroit Red Wings and Sebastian Cosa and filling a gap in the short term with a guy who, you know, can probably bridge you to there and has some upside.
Starting point is 00:05:27 Like, to me, the thing with Ned, like you can look at numbers, like, is it adjusted? Like what did he? I think his 932 led the league,
Starting point is 00:05:34 right now just while he brought up. 931 first. 945 at 515, only behind UC Soros, who had just an insane 25 game bender. Plus 12.9 goal sale about the expect. yet according to evolving hockey. Only Mark Andre Fleury and Connor Hellebuck,
Starting point is 00:05:50 the two most recent Besant Trophy winners, were better. An 8-48, high-dangercy percentage, according to natural statrick, only Philip Grubauer, Ego Scherkin, and Andre Bazzelowski were better. What does CSA have them at? Yeah, I mean, and just for,
Starting point is 00:06:07 I'm assuming our audience knows, Clearside Analytics, get a look under the hood, thanks to Stephen Veliket and his company, and they're not quite as big as that. the 932, I think everybody generally accepts that that's a pretty goalie-friendly environment in Carolina. The 932 grades out as the best in their 931, best in the NHL. When you adjust it for the shot quality he faced, he's like, he's still positive, like significant positive. He's plus
Starting point is 00:06:36 1%. But that, you know, sort that amongst the league and it's 18th. Matter of fact, it's just ahead of Jonathan Bernier, who was plus 0.9 behind a much worse defensive team. And when you look at expected say percentage for Ned in Carolina, it was 906, which is one of the highest totals or the highest sort of the easiest environment, roughly speaking, amongst any goalie that had seen 200 plus shots. Now, the interesting thing to me there is behind the same team, Peter Morazick's expected say percentage was almost 30 points lower. And this is sort of a conversation we can spin off this later.
Starting point is 00:07:18 We've seen this before. We saw it with Schoesterkin and Lundquist. We saw it last year with Tristan Jari having a really high expected and Matt Murray having a much lower one again behind the same team. So you start scratching your head. Like why is this guy's environment so much easier than his playing partner? It's the same team. Right.
Starting point is 00:07:37 And sometimes that can be matchups, what teams, what starts you're getting. especially the backup, maybe getting some easier, or sometimes harder starts on back-to-back nights. You know, there are a lot of different factors. Sometimes somebody's hurt, tougher part of the schedule, somebody's hurt in front of you and the defense is worse. Like, all these things can play into it. But the one factor that I think amongst those names that I just mentioned
Starting point is 00:07:59 is the ability to sort of handle the puck and move the puck. Like Lundquist never even got out of his net. Shastair can handle it like a defenseman. Pierre Morazek doesn't really do much other than stop. it and even sometimes doesn't do that. Ned can handle it. Similar with Jari and Murray, totally different goalies. So I do think
Starting point is 00:08:18 that's one thing as we look at defensive environments. I think a goaltender's ability to handle and move the puck, and I'm not talking home run breakout passes that make the highlight tape. Just set it up and put his defensemen clean little overs, clean little ups to get them out of their own end quicker, can make their
Starting point is 00:08:34 own life that much easier. So as much as, like, it's not Ned's fault that he had a really high expected safety. percentage. In fact, like, that's what he was dealt. But in fact, some of his skills with the puck may have helped create an easier environment for him. So, um, listen, it's, uh, at the same time, Jonathan Bernier is right there with him, but it's apples to oranges. Like he, his, his expected was so much lower in Detroit, which Pat matches the eye test. So, um, you know, so the numbers aren't quite as big. Like, I think the goals saved by ClearSight are closer to five, uh, just under five. And
Starting point is 00:09:10 again, that grades out 17th in the NHL. So you're getting a top half of the league starter. You may not be getting the best say percentage in the NHL in Detroit, but you're getting a top half of the league starter for a third round pick. Well, and that's the issue that I have with this trade, because we know the hurricanes draw a hard line in terms of, I think it was Elliot Freeman talking on 31 thoughts podcast where he was like, Tom Dundon, their owner puts a value on everyone and he won't go like a penny over
Starting point is 00:09:37 if he sees, if he thinks it's not worth it, right? And with Nadekovich, it's pretty clear that they were worried about the potential implications of an arbitration case, whether it could go above $4 million per season. And that's fine. What he wound up settling on and what he reportedly was asking for. He was asking for $3.5. He wound up getting $3 million for two years with Detroit. That pays him as like the 25th highest paid goalie, not accounting for the goleys that are going to get signed in for agency for more than that.
Starting point is 00:10:04 It will probably be like the 30th or so. And you're telling me he's the 18th best last season for a guy who's still conceivably, has a chance to grow and improve or at least maintain this based on his age. That's where I have an issue with it. It seems like it's pretty cheap on their end. Yeah, and has shown signs of that growth, even within last year, like took a big step last year.
Starting point is 00:10:22 And, you know, some of this is experience, some of this is getting comfortable in the league. Yeah, but some of it is, like, I know he made like a big change in his postplay. Because I spent an hour with him sort of going over pro reads, what we call it Ingo, where we actually have an HL goalie, he sit down and do video with us and the difference in his post play. and that may seem like such a small thing to people, but it's funny, I was talking with Jason Labarbara
Starting point is 00:10:44 for a different segment, a pro-drill segment, where there was a drill progression that was all about, you know, net play. And I said, like, you know, a lot of people on the outside wonder why goalies spend up so much time working on how to get in and out of their posts. And he's like, man, since I came back to the NHL, I cannot believe how much offense is generated or attempts sort of where it's placed from below the goal line and up to try and pull that defense because everybody plays sort of below the dots as a defense.
Starting point is 00:11:09 fence anyway. So try and then get it back up top and spread them out. And so if you can move in and out of your post cleanly, it's a huge difference. Nadelcovich makes some changes in how he does that, improves his post play this year. And I think that's a contributing factor. So is that the difference in him being, you know, good to what we saw this year or not great to very good this year? Not on its own, but it's a sign of a goalie that's still willing to adjust and learn and improve. And so I'm with you. It's sort of a tough one to look at and justify for McKinck. Carolina perspective and I guess at the end of the day what they do next will determine how we grade that out. Well, and that, okay, this is why you're broadcasting professional here. This is a great segue for us because
Starting point is 00:11:52 I think what they do next is fascinating. Everyone I talked to during the draft process, and Carolina notably was taking a lot of timeouts, slowing down the draft, trading down as much as they could, getting volume, which ties into their organizational philosophy of getting Did you notice how many goalies were picked? Picks of the can, yes, yeah. But what people were speculating, no one obviously with the hurricanes, but people were speculating that maybe part of the rationale
Starting point is 00:12:19 for acquiring those picks was hoping to potentially get someone to retain some salary for them on a more expensive goalie that they could go out and add and sort of help facilitate that. And naturally, my mind went to John Gibson, who is the most expensive goalie they could probably go out and get feasibly.
Starting point is 00:12:36 and I want to have a Gibson talk with you here because it's weird how many evaluators you speak with that it's such a polarizing thing because the past two years the results have not been there. He has a 902 and a 904 percentage I think by the public models, a negative goal, save above expected in both those years. Now, I couldn't help but notice
Starting point is 00:12:58 that he started each of those two years incredibly strongly with excellent performances, looked great. And then as the season went to live, long and the team was going nowhere and it was a very, very horrible defensive environment to be playing behind, his performance started to slip and he started having stinkers. And without like psychoanalyzing him here, I imagine part of it has to do with the fact that you look around and realize, wow, this is a dreadful situation and we're going nowhere and it's really,
Starting point is 00:13:25 really tough to stay motivated during that scenario. Yeah, I would tend to agree there. he actually netted out slightly positive in goals against differential just so, you know, like, not much, but plus one this season. So, which is pretty incredible when you consider the environment. And an interesting point there is, I think we all look at the types of chances they give up as the environment. But there are other factors. Yeah. Like, they don't score. Right.
Starting point is 00:13:56 Like the goalies in Anaheim, whether it was Gibson or Miller for the past couple of years, like, if you're not perfect, you don't know, like more than one, you're probably not winning. And that can absolutely wear you out mentally as much as being busy. Like, this dates back to conversations I used to have with goaltenders when Mika Kippersoff was dominant. Um, what would you rather have? A team that's a little looser defensively, but you know can score. Because obviously the flames under Darrell Sutter back then were super steep. dingy, but they didn't score a bunch. Or would you rather have a team that's so good defensively, but you know that, you know, two is too many. And every goalie, every goalie I talked to at the time,
Starting point is 00:14:43 give me the team that can score. Like, I will see a bunch of, I don't mind being busy. And give me the team that can score. And they don't have that in Anaheim. And I think so, as much as we focus on the defensive environment, like I said, John outperformed it, despite all those, blips and all those sort of tough games down the stretch. Right. He still outperformed it. But I just think the mental wear and tear, and I'll tie this back to Ned really quick,
Starting point is 00:15:09 because two things that you had in him, one, that contract he signed for was only two years. Right. So what have we done? We've avoided term. Two, there is a difficult part of playing behind Carolina now and playing behind very good defensive teams that they have to figure out as they're looking for a goalie,
Starting point is 00:15:28 not everyone, just as it's hard as a goaltender mentally to play behind a team, you know is not going to score for you. That whole mindset, like two's too many is tough. Not everyone plays well behind a team that's good defensively. Not everyone is good when they're not busy. Right. And Ned showed he could do that. And so you gave up on a guy that looked like he could play,
Starting point is 00:15:50 in part because he got out and handled the puck and stayed engaged, behind a team that not like, they may be, he may have, had the highest expected say percentage, which is an indication of an easy environment. Like I said, I think he played a role in that. Not every guy succeeds in that. Not every guy's good with lower workload and lower shots. And to tie this back to Gibson, so I don't know after all these years, like, I think there's so many questions about him because of the crazy environment he's been in. Like, can he handle not being busy after all these years of being busy? I think he'll be okay with it. The other question, is Carolina ever spending what his cap is?
Starting point is 00:16:28 on goaltending because I think part of the decision making there isn't just the owner saying we're not spending above what I, part of that is the valuation of what goaltending is worth is this is not how you win or how you need to necessarily spend your money in order to succeed.
Starting point is 00:16:48 Give me a good defense and we'll plug a goalie in. We don't need to spend big on a goaltender. So I'm not sure I see that as a fit because of that mentality. Yeah. And also because I think they were, they were shopping around for some some sort of experienced but definitely lower price point goal tenders of the past little while one note that I will make about from just what I what I've
Starting point is 00:17:08 sort of seen on initial glances of proprietary goalie data I think we're still not the extremes of certain types of shots I think aren't still being properly captured especially like I've seen some of the expected goal rates for like breakaway. are like two on ones. And I don't think they're nearly as high as they probably should be. Well, I guess it all depends on what type. Like, like, I mean, when I look at ClearSight,
Starting point is 00:17:37 breakaways are split into several different types. Yeah. And a two on one is, it's a total, two on run one is a completely different expected. Yeah. If the guy shoots it versus whether he manages to succeed in making that lateral pass.
Starting point is 00:17:53 And I've seen a lot of other proprietary stuff where for all the extra information that's in there. Lateral plays aren't accounted for, and it's all about area. And I've seen a lot of other stuff that ends with a shot in the slot and is counted as high danger because of it. And frankly, when I look at the same chance on ClearSight, it's actually a low danger because there hasn't been any lateral movement. The goalie was set for it.
Starting point is 00:18:20 Yeah. And even some of the best. And I know Steve has sort of made this point elsewhere, like he really broke down. Matthews, who was a guy we would think, anecdotally, an eye test with that release and the way he's able to sort of, you know, change the angle on goaltenders, pull it into his feet and shoot rockets on clean looks, you know, from what are traditionally, quote, unquote, high danger areas, we would expect him to have a ton of success. And when he looked at it, the shots where it was clean looks, you know, Matthews, I can't, I don't, he did a better job of accounting for this than I will
Starting point is 00:18:54 because I keep trying to remember the story he told. But it just, it wasn't. anywhere near what any of us would expect. But so that's why the other factors matter. To me, they matter. And I say that as a guy who's talked to goaltenders and has an understanding of what makes their life difficult. And a lot of those things I just don't see measured. Lateral plays that cross the slot line, yes.
Starting point is 00:19:14 Traffic. Traffic doesn't get measured even by a lot of proprietary models. Sight lines are important, hugely important. And yet it's ignored in most of it. Yeah. No, I think that's a fair point. And I agree. my point was I feel like the goalies that are like in truly catastrophic defensive environments
Starting point is 00:19:30 like we capture the fact that it's a you know we adjust for it and we could try to contextualize and I think we're not even going far enough in terms of like they probably are better than they look it's the it's the emminton example yeah right like how many like it's it's the eminenton example eventually if it's that bad yeah you have to start cheating right it's the it's the for all the years all the goalies that the oil is used to spit out right like if if the defensive system says, and this is a super simplistic example, but we'll use it because it's an easy one for people to relate to. If on that two-on-one, the system says, there doesn't even have to be a two-on-one, any type of play where the system says, the defenseman has this guy in this position on my back door.
Starting point is 00:20:10 Yep. And the first nine shot at pass attempts, six get through. As a goaltender, you, and maybe nine and six is not a fair example. Maybe we're talking about 30 or 40 and, you know, 20. when you get through. Right. Pretty hard to trust that guy to take away it the next time. And as soon as you lean in this league, as soon as you start hedging or cheating and a guy's got an open look, that's when you're dead.
Starting point is 00:20:37 Like, that's when they're picking that short side because they've got their head up and they're looking and they're looking for that cheat. They're looking for that cheat. You can't cheat in this league. And yet behind certain teams, if you don't, you don't have a chance because that puck's getting through. Right. Well, especially with how good the shooters are getting.
Starting point is 00:20:53 I don't know if you noticed this, but they're in the playoffs. It's not that it's necessarily a new thing, but there was a lot of, especially as the playoffs went along and the quality improved, there was a lot of shooters trying to pick corners from like really tough, like, from the goal line angles, basically, and just trying to like bank it in off the goalie's head and off the shoulder. And that's exactly what you were saying in terms of like hoping that everything that had led up to that sequence will have the goalie leaning a little bit and you can actually execute that shot. Yeah, and I mean, and so two things are improving with shooters. one, their understanding of goaltenders, and so there are certain tendencies of goaltenders, and not all of them, and, you know, the way they play their posts, and there is a give and take to that decision. I think a lot of people misunderstand how difficult. We talked about the La Barber example, about how many plays are generated from those angles. I think people misunderstand how tough
Starting point is 00:21:45 it is to seal that short side without giving away the ice if that puck is throwing into feet in front of you are deflecting off things or giving away your ability to move off of that post. There's a give and take and you're going to give up certain holes. Shooters know that now. Like the pre-scouts, by the time you get deep in the playoffs, every goalie coach on the other team is showing you not only where that hole is when he drops into what we would call his RVH or reverse VH, but at what point as you pull that puck, does he tend to drop so you can look for it?
Starting point is 00:22:17 Like at what point on the ice in terms of proximity or in terms of angle above the goal line, when is he going to drop and then we see that spot. So I think some of that picks up in the playoffs because those pre-scouts, one of 82, you know, it's Vancouver tonight, Calgary tomorrow night and Edmonton two nights from now. I'm not sure shooters pay that close of attention. But best of seven, you have their full attention on those pre-scouts and you can break down those tendencies. And the other thing I think with shooters we're seeing is, and I've been at the camps.
Starting point is 00:22:46 Like not only are they going to school on the goalies and there's a camp up in Colona that will be up here in a couple of weeks called Net360, which is, well, I don't know what will happen with pandemic and border openings and stuff. But typically there's like, you know, like anywhere up to 10 NHL goalies, but also the shooters are all NHL guys. And there's a lot of back and forth on where the exposure is
Starting point is 00:23:06 and where that space is. There's also shooting coaches now. And we've seen this with Daryl Belfrey is sort of the lead example with Austin Matthews. It's like deception. Yeah. Like there's a whole generation of goaltenders that are going based on what they anticipate and read a release.
Starting point is 00:23:20 lease is going, where it's going based on early information, and now increasingly so, an up-and-coming generation of shooters that are being taught how to show that exact thing that makes the goalie think it's going this way, and then at the last second, change it to make it go that way. So it's getting harder and harder to be a goalie, because for the first time in 20 years, we're not the only ones that are actually going to work on our skill set in the summer, right? It always used to be players. We're stronger, faster, bigger, stronger, faster in the summers. Now they're actually working on their skills,
Starting point is 00:23:51 which is something goalies have been doing for 20 years now. Right. Yeah, one final note on Gibson. You alluded to his cap it. 6.4 for the next six years, spread out uniformly, 10-team no trade. He did just turn 28. So I think it's interesting.
Starting point is 00:24:07 I think there's something to all those rumblings. Let's keep moving along and talk about some different situations and different goalies. Or maybe tied to the hurricanes here, but Darcy Kemper. to talk to you about him because similarly a lot of split opinions, not only because of how he sort of ascended in a short time to the defensive environment that he was playing in in Arizona over the past three years, by the public models still a net positive. I think certainly past
Starting point is 00:24:40 the eye test. I think the issue for me is he played 29 games and 27 games the past two years, and it's been a growing list of lower body injuries for a guy who is enormous. And it makes me think of Ben Bishop. And when that starts to go, it's a massive red flag for me. Now, you're talking about the term. He's an expiring after this season. So I don't think the acquisition cost is going to be nearly as high as Arizona hopes it'll be. And for that term, if it doesn't work out at the $4.5 million,
Starting point is 00:25:11 which Arizona could even retain some of, and it can just basically slide easily onto your cap. I think it's an interesting, fairly low risk, fairly high reward gamble for whichever team winds up land and Kemper. Yeah, and then again, like, we, it's great. It is a pretty good defensive environment. It wasn't as good this year as it has been in years past. He did net out positive ever so slightly. I mean, you know, 0.1% basically. So just above expected in both sort of say percentage and from a goal differential sort of half a goal.
Starting point is 00:25:43 So he's not hurting you. The question is how much. much can he help you? And much like his playing partner in Arizona in the past couple of years, is he going to be healthy enough to do it for you? And I do wonder at some point, like, I don't know what the deal is in the desert, but health issue and goaltenders, like I'm wondering if you're a team and you can do the research, if you think you can do things differently or get there, get those goaltenders doing things differently in terms of preparation, if that might make a difference. Right. Because the, here's the thing about goaltending.
Starting point is 00:26:15 the biggest thing about the job is being able to be available to do the job. Like you've seen coaches, man, like they just lose it at a goaltender who can't go because of a small tweak or a groin injury or like that's your number one. And I think those questions have existed for Antiranta for a long time. And I'm hearing more and more of them asked about Darcy Kemper. So I think you'd have to have a good feel for what the issues were. I mean, obviously at the end of the year at the World Championships, no problems, right? like he was healthy and looked good there.
Starting point is 00:26:49 And this to me is, see, this to me is when you're trying to figure out the defensive environment thing, there's the general broad picture where the eye test tells us, you know, again, not as much this past year, but for most of his time there, it's been an easier, relative to a lot of teams, it's been an easier defensive environment. He's outperformed it still. The questions to me are how granular can we get? in terms of where he's excelled at. And I'll give you one quick example.
Starting point is 00:27:19 I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I wrote this, I did the research for a radio hit a couple weeks ago because there was a lot of talk about Darcy Kemper going to Toronto. And when I looked at Toronto, which had become a very good defensive team. Like to me, remember we talked about Ned and being able to play well when you're not busy?
Starting point is 00:27:35 Right. Like that's also part of like Toronto is now a good defensive team overall. Yeah, last year they weren't giving much up. Right. And also their goalies aren't overly busy. And that's where Jack Campbell, despite, you know, you can say whatever about his, where he nets out in terms of his adjusted say percentage, it's actually just barely above Darcy Kemper. But his ability to play when he's not busy, like to me, and handle that media and handle that market. Like, those were all positives that you have to consider.
Starting point is 00:28:04 So Kemper coming from a similarly strong defensive environment, it's like, hey, that would fit, right? But when I looked at the types of chances Toronto gave up, and I looked at the types of times. of chances that Darcy Kemper was really good at. And again, I don't have my notes in front of me today. So this is an example. I believe it was there were two types of plays that they gave up at a high, like a lot more of than than relative to the other types that were tough plays. One was broken plays and it wasn't slot.
Starting point is 00:28:37 It was broken plays. There were two. I know broken plays was one of them. And Jack had really good numbers against Brock. broken plays. Darcy doesn't. And so again, broken plays. So what do you,
Starting point is 00:28:50 is that like a comment on athleticism? No, no, no, no. I'm not making any comments on the type of goal tenter. Could be just a matter of choosing, like Darcy can at times be a little aggressive. Like it might just be a matter of choosing a different depth. Right.
Starting point is 00:29:02 But if you're the Toronto Maple Leafs, my point from a statistical standpoint was broad applications of what the numbers say do not necessarily apply the same from team to team. And this is where we talked earlier about fitting goalie a into team X, you need to sort of look at it. And the other thing is teams change so much in terms of defensive personnel or sometimes defensive systems from year to year, you know, you could be trying to judge a goaltender on, hey, does he, is he good
Starting point is 00:29:29 at the types of chances we give up? Or do his weaknesses match the types of chances we don't give up? Like it's like, right, you want them playing to their strengths and weaknesses. My point is that you have to sort of get a little more granular to figure that out. It's not perfect because everything changes. And maybe you look at it and you go, geez, like, we're going to make this investment in Darcy Kemper and one of his biggest struggles happens to be one of the few areas we give up a lot of chances. Maybe we need to rethink this. Part of that equation is, let's take a look at all those chances. Let's let's pull the video. I can push two buttons, pull all the video from ClearSight on what those broken chances look like. And it's like, oh, well, you know, he's out past the top of
Starting point is 00:30:11 this is again theoretical. Oh, he's out past the top of his crease. Yeah, look at how much more conservative Jack Campbell played this year. I don't think, by the way, that Steve Breyer, the goalie coach there, gets enough credit for the technical adjustments and tactical adjustments in Jack's game as well. Like, he's a quieter goaltender now. But you may look at that as an organization. You've raised this red flag through analytics and then go, well, now let's apply the eye test.
Starting point is 00:30:35 And the goalie coach is like, if he's honest, all goalie coaches like to think they can fix everything. So you have to be careful. But if he's honest, he's like, hey man, like this is a problem for us because I see some issues here that aren't fixable. Or he's like, hey, man, this is a simple depth management issue. He's going to have to play further back in his crease for us because of these types of chances. Again, I don't know what the answers are. Right. But my point is you need to be asking these questions.
Starting point is 00:30:59 You can't just look broad picture. I know organizations right now that are making decisions not entirely on, but one of the big parts of their decision is like, oh, does he have experience? Like, can be he be a mentor? two-ar guy. Well, maybe he can, but he's got to also be able to stop the damn puck every once in a while, too. You might want to look into that. It's a useful skill for the position. I agree. Sometimes. My beer league team probably would tell you that it doesn't really matter much. As long as I'm managing the money and bringing the beer, they don't mind that I don't stop anything. That's the key to longevity in beer league. Yeah. Unlike the NHL, make sure you're the team manager and control the
Starting point is 00:31:34 finances. Make sure you're the guy with the beer. Kevin Woodley's got the experience. I know how, exactly. the experience on how to make sure the cooler is full of ice. Yeah, Kemper's been linked to Toronto. He's been linked to Colorado. I think he's an interesting. Another good defensive team, right? That's a defensive environment that has improved significantly in the past couple of years. Yep.
Starting point is 00:31:57 I think Edmonton, I was talking to you about this before we went on the air, but I think Edmonton just from the neatness of Miko Koskin, making 4.5 million, Darcy Kemper making 4.5 million. flipping those, attaching an asset to make it worth Arizona's while, especially since Arizona literally does not have, if they make that trade, does not have an NHL goalie under contract. And with the one year left for Koskin, it's conceivable that get some games out of them, potentially flip him for another cheaper asset down the line,
Starting point is 00:32:27 and that's just a good piece of business. So I wonder if that's a fit. But Kemper does have a lot of question marks and a lot of people wondering how good he really is. Well, and the contracts become interesting, too, because I'll bring up another goal who's right around the same sort of numbers in terms of contract. That's Brayden Holpey here in Vancouver, right? Like 4.3 million. Like I think his cap hit is 200,000 less than Darcy Kemper at 4.3.
Starting point is 00:32:53 Yeah. But his actual money at 5.7 is just $200,000 more than Darcy because I think Darcy's deal was a little backloaded too. I think he's due 5.5 this year off the top of my head. So again, very similar contracts. problem on the Canucks standpoint, but I mean in terms of shopping around the league, for the Canucks, it makes no sense to bring Darcy Kemper back unless you're just going to flip them, because the reason they're looking to move, hopefully, is they can't afford the contract. Yeah, yes.
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Starting point is 00:36:30 year. So based on the reports today of the Alec Martinez signing for 5 million, they right now have roughly $50 million in cap commitments for next season to their top five forwards and top three defensemen, not including either the two goalies or any of the other pieces like Marsha So, Riley Smith, Braden McNabb, and stuff like that. So they're clearly like, I think they're literally above the cap now with the team they have. So they're going to make some moves. I'm really curious what the value league-wide is On Flurry, because we heard a lot last off season, that they would have to give up at least the first just for someone to take that contract off their hands, right? Or eat money. That was the other part of it.
Starting point is 00:37:12 And then now he just won the Vezna. He had a 927% plus 19 goals A year after having a 904 and a minus 14 goal sale about expected. But most importantly, now he's down to just one year left at $7 million on the cap hit. And so I'm really curious to see what they do and how they navigate that situation because for me, if I was another team and I was looking at that, I would be trying really hard to pry Robin Lennar off of them who has five million per for the next four seasons and still remarkably just turned 30 years old, which is which blew my mind when I looked at. I was like, is he like 33? And then I looked, nope, he just turned 30. and was my so before the season my Vesna pick was Robin Lennar
Starting point is 00:38:00 and wound up being Mark on your footier So I'd like to think that Vegas goalie as just a big picture concept I'm willing to grant you that one I had neither on my list But so I'm really curious to see how that plays out
Starting point is 00:38:13 Because you know If you're if you're them I imagine you'd still Despite the season they just had Prefer to move Flurry Just because you have Lennar locked in For the next three seasons
Starting point is 00:38:24 even after this coming one. He's younger, provides a bit more upside, I think. But I wonder what they could get for either guy and whether it might be more worth their while to potentially move Leonard, considering just how all in they are as a team on a year-to-year basis. There's no organization that thinks less about what's going to happen two years from now than them.
Starting point is 00:38:44 And credit to them in that regard, because they're just so ruthlessly aggressive that they will, if they think they can improve their cup odds next season by 2%, they're going to explore it. Be damned what happens after that. So there's a couple factors here. One is I expect them to move a goaltender like everyone does. And you said the Alex Martinez cap,
Starting point is 00:39:01 it just makes that seemingly more obvious to the rest of the world. I really wasn't sure which one, to be honest with you, in part because we've heard the owner. I thought it would be Flurry, despite the fact we've heard the owner, you know, Bill Foley talk about Mark Andre Fleury finishing his career and how valuable he's been to that franchise and letting him finish there. Now, the other factor here is beyond this. season.
Starting point is 00:39:27 Flowers already indicated a willingness and a desire to stay and actually signed for less and help them win on a lower contract. Like that's kind of, and when you talk about adjusted numbers, like, Mark Andre Fleury was our deserving Vesna trophy winner, like, by a fair bit using the clear sight numbers. He led the NHL with 30 goals saved. That was not a great defensive environment last year. You saw it in that Minnesota series.
Starting point is 00:39:51 Vegas doesn't get out of the first round, if not for Mark Andre Fleury in the first four games. Now, this is where it gets a little risky. He leveled off. He was almost 10 goals saved in the first four games. Right. And then it leveled off from there. And this is where having the aging goaltender and needing to have someone to play with him, you know, becomes part of this equation for Vegas. As much as, and also just so you know, the only guy who had a better adjusted save percentage number was Peter Morazek in a much smaller sample. Fleury was number one with a bullet at 3.6% amongst the goalies that sort of had a starter workload. The problem is you need someone to play with them.
Starting point is 00:40:31 So I guess if you're Vegas, it's not just, we move one guy, we saved the cap, but we're going to have to spend some money. And it goes the same with Robin Lainer. Yeah. Like Robin Lainer, I'm a massive Robin Lainer fan. Right. Robin Lainer's also a massive goalie. There's a reason nobody sees him as a 50, 60 game guy.
Starting point is 00:40:49 Just because the amount of wear and tear being that big puts on your body. I think, you know, but I guess like you said, there's 20, there's 20 for agents out there. You can find that cheaper than what they're spending. The question is they can't dip on quality too much there because they can't afford to run either guy into the ground or it'll cost them either in terms of health or in terms of playoffs. Yeah, I'm not, I don't really view that as a big concern on Leonard just because I don't view any goalie as a 50-60 goalie at 60 game guy at this point. Yeah. Give me 40 good games and I'll figure out the other 40, especially with the Pacific Division with that team. Right.
Starting point is 00:41:22 You know what I mean? You're probably like making the playoffs is not a concern. Just stay healthy. Yeah. Just keep them healthy and keep them fresh for the playoffs, whichever one. So I don't know which way they're going to go. And it's interesting. Like I don't know what the ask is right now.
Starting point is 00:41:37 But they've certainly gone from being a team that was being asked to eat half the money on Flurry last year to a team that I feel should probably be able to get an asset and get out of that contract anyways. And a team that, you know, like there's a fit for Carolina. right like but of course well if you got a third team involved eat eat some of that cap hit for one year i think that's an interesting fit yeah listen see now we're getting creative beyond my capacity all i know is how to bring the beer and keep the ice cold i can't involve third teams and retaining money yeah i i think that's an interesting option but i would be man if i if you could pry lenter away from Vegas right now just based on the year of a flurry had and sort of their emotional attachment to him, a sword wound aside, I, uh, I'd be, I'd be trying to do that.
Starting point is 00:42:24 But, um, okay, let's, do you want to do Seattle? We've done all these, look at all the names we've talked about. We haven't even really hit, like, we're still on guys that are trades. Like, we haven't even hit the free agent market that's like 20 plus deep. Like, that's why I mean this is, and I think some of these possible trades are, I, I can't say they're going to, they're not going to, they're almost said they're going to hold up free agency. But I think teams are sort of weighing like, they have other options in free agency. If they don't get their option,
Starting point is 00:42:54 then, because as deep as that free agency class is, it's kind of thin at the top end. If they don't get their top option, do they then start calling Vegas with better offers or even Vancouver with better offers for Braden Holpey or non-retained offers or Darcy Kemper in Arizona? Like for all the names on the free agent class, we've still got all these other guys that are available.
Starting point is 00:43:19 an unprecedented amount of movement. Yeah. Well, so do you want to do Seattle or do you want to do... Sure. Let's do Seattle first. All right. So they obviously, they took Chris Rieger. They took Vanichek and they took Joy to Court. I was personally very surprised that they didn't take Capococconin from the wild
Starting point is 00:43:36 and took Carson Sussi instead. I know he had not great numbers last year, especially down the stretch. I think is obscured by the fact that he had three horrific games where he gave up nine, seven, and six goals against him. has put up good numbers in the HL and the Finnish League for whatever that's worth. I just think ultimately it would have been an interesting asset to potentially flip to someone else.
Starting point is 00:43:57 It's a different conversation. I know you want to talk about the technical component of the goalies. I just think in terms of business perspective, I was surprised that they didn't go that route. Yeah, because he seemed to have a lot of value. Now, would it surprise you don't know that he had net negative numbers last season behind the Minnesota Wild?
Starting point is 00:44:11 Yeah, I mean, yeah, the Minnesota Wild goalies. We could have a full podcast on that. They always get beat up both publicly and privately. Listen, like I see Kakinin and Vanichick in a very similar light. They actually both ended up with negative 1.1% sort of adjusted say percentage. Right. They're in the 50s in the National Hockey League by the end of last season. As you said, Kakinin's numbers inflated by a couple, you know, three bad starts down the stretch.
Starting point is 00:44:38 And I think in both cases, these are guys who had really good stretches and showed signs of what they could be. Like Vanichick similarly was good early, behind a very good defensive team, by the way. in Washington a year after not being a very good defensive team. Like the coaching change made a difference there. We'll see whether that's a dead cat bounce long term or not or whether that was just having the attention of your players for your first year as a sort of quote unquote hard-ass coach. But it was just a big ask, right?
Starting point is 00:45:09 Like he was asked to carry the load. He did it for a while and then eventually just sort of started to wear down. So both guys finished with negative numbers, but in both cases they showed you potential for stretches that made you understand the pick in Vanichek's case and in Kackinen's case make it hard to understand why they didn't. Especially because, and correct me if I'm wrong, Kacken doesn't need waivers yet. Like he could have been that Joey DeKord guy that could go back and forth. Because this was a challenge for Seattle.
Starting point is 00:45:42 They had to have a third goalie or they need to, and obviously you could get it in free agency, but they needed a third goalie that could move up and down to a HL franchise they don't actually own this season, but you absolutely need three. And I would argue four, because for all to talk about last year, this has the potential, and this is where tammons and making sure you have more than one guy is important,
Starting point is 00:46:07 this has the potential to be way harder physically on goal tenders than last year was. Yeah. The schedule still can. condensed, especially if they do go to the Olympics. You're adding the All-Star game in there. And guess what? No more taxi squad number three goalie to take the crappy parts of practice for you. Right.
Starting point is 00:46:25 Like this is going to be a year where you do not get by on one. You're going to need to lean more heavily on two. And I guarantee you more teams are going to end up needing three and even four than we've seen in years past. And I think so for Seattle's case, you needed to find a guy in that three hole that could move around without costing you the risk of losing him on waiver. Well, there's some teams with insane schedules, too. I think the Islander is one.
Starting point is 00:46:48 I don't know the details off the top of my head, but like 13 in a row on the road. And like 18 back to backs or something, I think I saw. Like it's, yeah, it's going to be a grind. So yeah, no, you're right. I was surprised by that. I think, you know, how do you feel about Dregor as sort of the investment they made it? It's pretty minimal in terms of like it's only the three years. But obviously when a guy has like 30 career games, albeit remarkable.
Starting point is 00:47:15 output for them. But it's it's always a risk, I think. And it wasn't really painted as such, just because it has been such a good story and because, you know, the numbers have been legitimately good. Yeah, I love Chris Driedger, the story. I like Chris Driedger, the goalie too. Um, you know, we had him on last summer and, uh, on the Ingold radio podcast. And, and you got a sense for how, um, this path sort of bore out for him. Like he was in the East, CHL just a couple of years ago, right? But you understood the progression of why. And there was a lot of potential there earlier. I remember being on the ice with Dreger in up in that Colonna camp I mentioned earlier like four or five years ago. And the potential was there. But for a lot of different reasons,
Starting point is 00:48:00 some of them work ethic, he'll tell you, thinking he was working hard, but not necessarily doing all the right things early in his career. It didn't pan out. So it is a good story. And there's a reason he's had this success and had this curve. Again, when I look at the adjusted numbers, you know, they don't sort of match his raw numbers. Florida was a pretty decent defensive team this year. Still good. Still net's out positive.
Starting point is 00:48:29 And over the last two years, like, nets out positive to the point where he's sort of in the, you know, high teens, low 20s compared to everyone else. So a lot of good things there. but until you've done it, you haven't done it. And being the number one guy can be a different thing. The good news is when you listen to him, talk about all the lessons he learned early,
Starting point is 00:48:51 you see a capacity for growth. So you know that he's going to take on the challenge of being a number one guy with the right mindset, that sort of growth mindset, what do I have to learn? What do I have to get better at here? So I like I like the bet because I like Chris Treasier and his numbers are positive.
Starting point is 00:49:08 The risk is, and I would think Ron Francis knows this, risk better than anyone, the sample size and not being in the role before. We saw it with Eddie Lack. We saw it with Scott Darling, like where you make a term and dollar bet on a goalie that hasn't been in that role before. And like I said, until you've done it, you haven't done it. And that's the question it remains.
Starting point is 00:49:30 It's a fair question. I think there's enough signs of Chris Dreeger, the person and the work ethic that he'll get there, but to expect it out of the gate without a safety net is might be a big ask for Seattle. they built a good defense. And that was always going to be the case with Ron. Like that was, like that had to be the focus for him coming.
Starting point is 00:49:49 That was his M.O. in Carolina. It's his M.O. there. Question will be, is it good enough? I think the somewhat encouraging thing in that small sample size is that, you know, speaking to a point you were making earlier about defensive environments and sort of different ways teams play in front of goals and how that can affect stuff. like the Panthers from two years ago to the Panthers last year experienced significantly different
Starting point is 00:50:13 defensive results. It was like a different team. And so Jr. was good in both. Yes, he was. That's a good point. That gives me a bit more confidence that he has like the versatility to not necessarily be entirely dependent because like two years ago they were still quite bad in Quinell's first year. And he had good numbers, obviously in a really small sampled. But we've seen him play both. Play both ways. Just like playing behind one type of team. That's a really good point. The other thing, too, is I don't know if I mentioned this already, but we do these video sessions with these guys called Pro Reads, where they will sit down and do a video and they'll walk us through, not just the save, but why they chose certain save selections.
Starting point is 00:50:52 And you get a wide variety of sort of thought process there. The ability to read the game and process the game is massive for goaltenders. I talk about technical. It's the first thing that I see, which is why I'm very limited, as in terms of my ability to predict guys is because I focus so much on the technical. It's like one small slice. When Chris does pro reads with us,
Starting point is 00:51:15 and Joey DeCord is the same way, by the way, the level of detail that they pick out in the moment that leads to their decision making, they think the game very, very well. And when you combine that with the growth mindset that he's developed in the past three years, and, you know, again, let's not forget, third round pick,
Starting point is 00:51:33 like had, there were some tools there to start with, that were identified, even if they didn't pan out for the Ottawa senators. And size and skating, like, there's a lot of positives. And so I like this bet for Seattle. It's just not having a plan B behind, like, it puts a lot of pressure on DREJ. And so it's on him to sort of be able to grow quickly into the role because there isn't that safety net behind him of experience. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:59 Yeah. Yeah. It'll be a fascinating situation to watch. All right, let's close this up then. Let's bounce around some of the, uh, the free agents finally after all of the other other talks we've had um i'm going to list some names for you here rask halak anderson fredi anderson uh philip grubauer petermrazic jonathan burnier um even that lower tier i think of ranta broswa ulmark and rymer any you can take any of those
Starting point is 00:52:27 you want here what give me something on uh on any see but you can't take any of them because unless you know the terms right because they'll take away my goal of union card but But my honest, like I said before, like I'm avoiding term, right? So I think Philip Gruberauer is going to be looking for term. Yeah. I like Philip Grubauer as a goaltender. Right. Didn't have him as a Vezna finalist.
Starting point is 00:52:47 Right. I like him as a goaltender. Again, you have to recognize what the environment was last year in Colorado. It was a really good defensive environment. He's kind of right there with Alex Nadelcovic, who just signed a two year, just more, he's got more history and he's more proven and more experience. But am I going to go five or six years on that? is that a big enough gap in a position that seems to change so rapidly?
Starting point is 00:53:08 Again, it would depend, do I have a good defensive team? If I have cap space and I'm not like the Carolina, like if I had, like I think he fits Carolina. I think he fits Toronto. Right. But I don't think he fits either team in terms of what he's going to command on cap space. I think he fits a low shot environment. I think he was good for Colorado. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:27 You know, so, and also in the playoffs, you know, like that because the teams we're talking about are teams that are looking to get over the hump. And so the best fit for Philip Grubauer is probably Colorado, but they're also in that same position in terms of where they're at in the cap. So there are so many different names there. How about we, instead of just saying the one I would like the most, let me tell you the one that I think, again, at least from the statistics, might be the most overlooked. And in part because it's a small sample, in part because the way he plays doesn't necessarily look the same. I've had some goalie coaches say they think he might be the closest thing to a blocking goal he left in the league. And I don't think that's a fair description, but I sort of understand how they might see it that
Starting point is 00:54:12 way. And that's Lorenzois with the Winnipeg Jets. His adjusted say percentage was just a tick below Connor Hellebuck and top 10 in the league still, like just right in their 10th spot just above Mike Smith. Now, the other one too is Peter Marazig, who tends to be all over the map, but somehow managed to be like plus 3.8% last year, like off the top. the charts. You're always buying highs and lows and he tends to ride higher highs and lower lows because of the nature of the way he plays. Emo certainly does. But on a, which is probably why I have a hunched Carolina moves on because they're looking for steady. Like I could see Brasois as a fit. I see him as a fit. I think Philly probably values him. I think Carolina might consider him too
Starting point is 00:54:54 because he, you know, but again, hasn't had the opportunity, hasn't done it before. So he comes with risk. Can he do it in a larger sample? But that's a name that, you know, certainly, jumps out to me beyond that. And Jonathan Bernier. Jonathan Bernier has been really good in Detroit for the last three years. The problem is, is Detroit. Yeah. And some goalies can get a rep for being really good on really bad teams.
Starting point is 00:55:19 Right. I'm not sure if that's fair for Bernier. I do think a team like the Flyers has interest in him. I think Carolina did make him an offer, just it was really low ball offer. And I think he's going to hit the mark. Yeah, surprise, surprise. but like, you know, like there's a guy that I still think can be a number one guy. He has had a lot of success.
Starting point is 00:55:42 But what happens if you put him in an environment where you're not busy, you're not seeing a lot of shots? Yep. And the expectations are just totally different. I think he can handle that. But I know there's a lot of goalie coaches and general managers right now that are looking at that with enough uncertainty that I don't know how deeply they're willing to commit to commit to him. He was awesome last year, even the past two years, I think.
Starting point is 00:56:10 He's been really good though. He was, for Detroit's taste too good based on what they were trying to accomplish. But yeah, I mean, if you look at his results compared to the other goalies, they trotted out there. And if you look at his game, he actually fits Carolina really well. Like, there's a steadiness to him that's evolved. It's just a, you know, it's like, I actually think he checks a lot of the boxes there. He's very solid.
Starting point is 00:56:30 But I just don't know that he's, that they're willing to pay him what he thinks he can get on the open market. And if he hits the open market, I think he's going to be pretty highly sought after. I'm not trying to get some sort of crazy free agent contract, but I think there's going to be teams that are lining up to try and get him. And that's the question, right? In a buyer's market, and this clearly is a buyer's market. Yeah. All it takes is one to value that guy to the point where they absolutely need to have him. I know he's first on a couple lists.
Starting point is 00:56:54 Yep. He's the first choice. And then the other one is Lena Solmark, who has, posted consistently positive results behind a bad team would have been somebody I would have targeted at the trade deadline. But Buffalo ultimately took him off the table because they recognized how much better they were when he's in the lineup versus when he's not. And yet according to some of the reports I've heard is looking for what we would traditionally consider number one money, which is in the neighborhood of $5 million a year. So and much like Darcy Kemper, I think in the past
Starting point is 00:57:27 couple of years, there have emerged some questions about the ability to stay healthy. And so at the end of the day, there's a lot of uncertainty with a lot of the names that we're talking about here. Yeah. Yeah, there are. I think, like, Freddie Anderson's another interesting one because I think, for me, he was the gold standard in terms of consistency for a long time, which is funny because the way you'd hear him talked about would be anything but.
Starting point is 00:57:55 But, like, if you looked at the end of the day, the results were pretty much. every year just in lockstep. Absolutely. Past two years, an alarming downturn, and I wonder how much of that is the fact that from 2016 to 2020, he played a league high 244 games. And injuries clearly play a role this year. And so clearly, like, his stock is pretty low considering how last year ended,
Starting point is 00:58:16 which might provide a buying opportunity for someone to try and maybe for him to view it as let me prove that I still have it and I can kind of rebuild my stuff. If I'm a goalie that's looking for that step, short term, I'm choosing one. And then I think that's what Carolina. I mean, you heard Don Waddell talk about it.
Starting point is 00:58:32 We think we're a great environment for it. Like, we think we're a place where goalie should want to come. Yeah. If I'm willing to sacrifice term, especially because it's a flat cap in a buyer's market and who knows what I'm getting anyways. Yep. I'm like,
Starting point is 00:58:45 sign me up to play for the Carolina hurricanes. Right? Yeah. The question on Freddie becomes, how much of it was the wear and tear and the injury? Mm-hmm. And you're absolutely right. We know about the injury this year,
Starting point is 00:58:57 and the wear and tear is a really good point on how many games he played. He's also a big goal tender, right? He's a big body. And then the other question that's being asked, and again, we alluded to this, what else changed this year for Toronto? They started defending.
Starting point is 00:59:14 Right. Like it's a different pressure point when you're just, you know, you're out there and you're busy and you're not thinking and the shots are coming from everywhere and when all of a sudden, you know, you're not so busy.
Starting point is 00:59:25 and not every goal he handles it. And so I don't know if that's fair to Freddie because my hunches, it's more the injury. Yeah, I think he was also, I don't know how much of this was reported, but I think he was playing at less than 100%. Oh, for a large stretch. Of the pressure of the impending free agency because Jack Campbell was out and they didn't really have better options and he did them a solid and it kind of sucks that that tanked his value because I don't think he was
Starting point is 00:59:50 necessarily looking out for himself as much as he was for the team. That's the question that's being asked. right now how much of it was the injury and how much of it which i think it's pretty common knowledge that he was playing through something because he came out and said it um how much of it is that and how much of it is can he be a guy behind a team that doesn't like can he be as good as he was when they suck defensively um behind a team that plays better defensively and again i don't think it's a i don't know that it's necessarily a fair question but i can tell you right now it's one that the teams that are looking are asking any other any other situations about the hour mark here
Starting point is 01:00:25 So, like, I think we've hit quite a few of the teams and goalies involved, but is there anyone else that peaks your interest or red flags or either way? God, there's so many. Like, I will say this, that beyond the names we just talked about, in terms of this unrestricted free agent class, and I could be careful here, right, because you could accidentally lump somebody into something that's not necessarily fair. But I think beyond that, for the most part,
Starting point is 01:00:55 lot of the names we're talking about, like, we've already talked about everyone who was net positive last year. Yeah. And that means that everybody else on the list isn't. So if you're making an investment, you know, and that includes Freddie, right? Like, like, it's funny, though, this is the thing. So Freddie gets maligned for the season he had, right? Like maligned. Yeah. Carrey Price's regular season was worse statistically. Right. Like he was, his adjusted save percentage was a couple spots below Freddie Anderson. So it's something just sort of to keep in mind that other factors can play a role.
Starting point is 01:01:28 It doesn't mean you're done. But amongst some of these other goalies that are on the market, you really need to make, I think this is where it's important. You can find value there. James Reimer, Devin Dubnick. Yaroslav Halak was like minus 1.3% last year.
Starting point is 01:01:47 Like he has consistently been a net positive, like a better than his environment. goal tender. And a guy that I, up until this past year, I would have think would have been, you know, up near the, like he used to be sort of compete with Tuka. Yeah. Like he'd have similar adjusted numbers.
Starting point is 01:02:01 And now the bottom fell out. So you have to do your homework and figure out whether it's certain things in the system or things that changed or whether it's just the circumstances or whether it's playing through injury or the starts he got. You really need to do your homework as opposed to just be like, yeah, this guy is a good goalie. Let's sign him. And I'm not pretending anybody's that rudimentary, but I'll be honest.
Starting point is 01:02:27 I've gotten glimpses into the thought processes from some over the years. And sometimes it comes down to that. Oh, this guy won before he can do it again. And by God, if anything, I hope we've taught people in this hour that if I can access 34, 35 different types of scoring chances and see how a goalie's fared in his career against them and then also measure whether you give those up as a team more or less, certainly we can do better than this guy used to be good. Let's sign him.
Starting point is 01:02:55 Yeah. Yeah. I think there's sometimes there's certainly a lot to be desired in terms of the process. All right, Kevin, plug some stuff. Where can people check you out? What can they look forward to from you? What are you working on these days? Beyond getting harassed by coaches and people looking for goalie and say, like myself,
Starting point is 01:03:13 bugging you to come on this podcast. I would say I would just your people actually frankly you don't want to follow me it's all like Tefino vacation pictures for the summer now so don't don't bother with the kevin is in goal just go straight to Ingole magazine and Ingole media on our various social channels on Twitter and Instagram and ingoamag i ng o a L-M-A-G dot com because a lot of the insights that I'm sharing here are not because I'm smart, but because much smarter than people than me are willing to sort of share their experiences and their insights with me. The Ingoal radio podcast comes out every week. We have NHL goalie coaches, NHL goalies, often some that aren't allowed to talk otherwise from the goalie coaching side. And if you're not a goalie, it's probably not of interest to you.
Starting point is 01:04:02 If you are a goalie, we have videos, teaching tips, NHL goalies, sharing tips and instruction. The pro reads I mentioned, we have pro drills with NHL goalie coaches reviewing, footage of drills they're doing at the NHL level and walking us through the keys, um, tips from Kerry Price from the day we spend with him each summer for the past five years, working with kids, like little simple. It was so cool.
Starting point is 01:04:24 That was the cool thing. One little plug here. So we have these pro tips from Kerry that we've gathered over the years. And his playoff run sort of sent me back into the archives because I hadn't done a good enough job of sort of flushing out all the videos, hours and hours of video. It's a long day that he does with Eli Wilson goalie schools and, and a bunch of kids. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:43 And one beer leaguer in the, five years. We've had one beer leaker come up. And it's fun to watch him teach the kids. Like there's something cool about seeing this guy just, you know, trying to encourage a little eight-year-old who's struggling. But what was really cool about the playoff series is all these little tips, simple little things like where to where I put my stick and why on the post in this situation, they were all still on display right up to the Stanley Cup final. Those are still the foundational anchors that he builds his game around. And so that to me is. an example of what Ingle magazine is. It's an opportunity to have goalies at the highest level
Starting point is 01:05:18 like him. He did a webinar with us last summer. We got pictures from all the parents. Like, they're literally over the shoulder of their kid and they're like, my 12 year old thinks he was, because there's, there's carry on the screen talking to the group. And it's like my 12 year old thinks he gets to talk, that carry prices his buddy now. So those are the kind of things we try and do at Engel. If you're a goalie, I think there's value there. Please check it out. Awesome, man. That sounds great. Well, I appreciate you taking the time. I know it's a busy part of the year and we'll definitely have you back on sometime down the road so take care man it's my pleasure all right that's going to be for today's episode of the hockey pdf pdf cast as always it was a blast having
Starting point is 01:05:51 kevin woodley on the show as always he delivered with the heat and the goods i love having him on and just picking his brain about goaltending he's got such a wealth of knowledge and always learn a bunch of new stuff so hopefully you got something out of that conversation too if you did enjoy it please consider helping us out by leaving a quick little rating and review each one of them is greatly appreciated. Helps us a lot. Goes a long way towards helping the PDO cast, and it's really easy to do. It just takes a minute of your time. You can leave the five stars. If you are feeling extra generous, you can actually drop us a quick little description and review about what you like about the show or why you recommend people check it out. A lot of you have done so already, and each of them
Starting point is 01:06:26 is greatly appreciated. So thank you to those you have done so. We'll be back here soon with more off-season analysis. We've got free agency here around the corner, and there's being a lot of stuff to talk about as we head into August. If you haven't checked it out yet, go back into the archives. We released a couple shows over the weekend. They were a bit shorter than usual, but we had some fun talking with Charlie O'Connor about the Flyers busy off season so far, and especially the Rasmus and Line and trade they made. And we talked about Harmon Dial about the Canucks, big move and trading for all of Recman-Larsin and Connor Garland, and we got into all that. So both of those are really good. Highly recommend checking them out if you haven't done so already. Thank you for
Starting point is 01:07:05 listening to the PDOCAS and supporting, and we'll be back soon. Socast with Dim Philipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey pdfast.

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