The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 410: In This Economy

Episode Date: July 28, 2021

Alison Lukan joins the show to discuss the Seth Jones trade and extension, his declining numbers in recent years, and all of the assets the Blue Jackets got in return for him. Topics include: Gap between Seth Jones' reputation and results What's been causing his dip in performance Issues with judging players based on raw ice time How bad things got in Columbus last season Premium Chicago paid in both trade and extension Upside of Adam Boqvist and Jake Bean on blueline Blue Jackets swinging for fences with draft picks Trying to rebrand and rebuild Marc-Andre Fleury's trade to Chicago What Vegas does with their newfound cap space If you haven't yet, please go take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. If you're busy and don't feel like writing anything, it's all good. Just hit the 5-star button. Each one counts, and helps us out. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a note about why you recommend people check the show out. Thanks for the help!Submit your Blue Wire Hustle application here: http://bwhustle.com/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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Doing the research and sweating the details to create gear that works for you. It's your run. Brooks, run happy. progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PtioCast. Post, Dimitri. Welcome to the HockeyedioCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich.

And joining me is my good pal, Alison, Lucan. Alison, what's going on? There's a lot going on, isn't there? It's great to be here with you again. Yeah. Well, you know we had to do a big deep dive on the blue jackets, considering their off season so far, considering how they really seem to take control of day one of the draft.

And I couldn't think of a better person to do the deep dive with than you. So I'm looking forward to those. There's certainly, we were bouncing around some ideas before we started recording and there's a no shortage of topics for us to get into it's funny you know you we were bouncing around ideas i'm like and then there's these 10 other things so it's it was it was a it was a very pivotal moment for the franchise it's going to be really interesting to see how this pans out and how this will look in a few years and in 10 years even longer potentially yeah well we're going to get into all that i think natural starting point is the sets drone trade and we're going to try to

deep dive it out i spent a lot of time myself as i'm sure you have thinking about it. If only because I thought that the combination of the player himself, but also like the details of the transaction that got him there and then we'll keep him in Chicago for a long time, I presume. We're such a touchstone moment for player evaluation. The whole weekend was, as I've talked about in the podcast, with the Ekman-Larsen trade and with Ristolin and trade and how teams seem to value these big name defensemen more than we made publicly in terms of the metrics we have available to us. But this was, really kind of captured all of that in this.

It's not even a tidy package, a messy package of just like details and everything. So I don't know. Like what do you think the most interesting part of the entire discussion about either the player or the trade itself is? Because there's obviously so many different ways we can kind of enter this conversation. Yeah. You know, and I've said this a couple times.

It's been, this has been an interesting period for me because as you know, I'm an totally passionate supporter of the public. metrics that we have and I continue to be so. But having watched Seth Jones as much as I have, I do struggle a little bit. I'm not saying that he's completely missed in terms of the metrics, but I think we're missing something. And I think that maybe our analytics community could do ourselves a favor when the dust settles to dig in a little more and see if maybe there were other things that we missed or maybe if we ever get more robust data if that helps us. So all of that is to

say, I've been a little higher on the player continuously than the quote-unquote analytics community has been. Now, that being said, when that return came back, I was floored. Absolutely floored. I think that, and this is not to take anything away from Seth Jones, that was a tremendous overpay by Chicago, particularly given my understanding of where that organization is, too. I think that from a strategic perspective, very big risk and not necessarily in the best of ways, in my opinion. Yeah. I certainly, I ultimately, and I think this is almost disputable.

I don't see a feasible roadmap for the Blackhawks to come out ahead on this transaction, just given the acquisition costs in terms of what they gave to Columbus to facilitate the trade. But then I think even especially when you double down with the magnitude of the extension, and we're going to get into all of the business side of the equation, I think I wanted to go over that the on ice performance and the results he's had so far because that is the more interesting component of this to me. And I think there's a bunch of players in the league for who the perception and status and the numbers don't line up, right? And we have these debates back and forth

about them. I think there's very few examples of someone for who they're quite this divergent and also for someone who in their age 26 season this is happening. Right. Like when it happens with an Oliverickman-Larsen where he gets traded, it's like, all right, well, he's 30. He's 30. he's had a bunch of knee surgeries, the way we understand aging curves. Yeah, it seems a bit early for him to fall off the map like this in terms of those on ice results, but I can see it. With Seth Jones, he's obviously logged a ton of miles in terms of the minutes and he's played for Columbus over the years, but still as a player who just finished his age 26th season,

it's weird that this is, and you know, this past year was an aberration in terms of how bad the results got, but it has been kind of tied into this larger conversation. we've been having for maybe two, three years now in terms of like slight dips in performance that ultimately comment on this one. So it's very bizarre for me to just see it playing out in real time like this for a player who is only 26 years old, who we think would theoretically be at the prime of his career at this point. Yeah, you know, it's been fascinating to me. And, you know, I'll pick on another example of where we've all been like, oh, yeah, well, this divergence makes sense and that's Jack Johnson, right? Like, it was always

very easy for us to understand what the quote unquote hockey men saw in him versus what the numbers were telling us versus what people like you and I saw when we watched the game. And, you know, the little that I've dug into this and I've spoken to people much smarter than me in terms of mathematics and analytics, I do think there's a couple things in play here. You know, he has, Seth Jones has played an exorbitant amount of minutes relative to his colleagues. And from what I understand, that potentially could be doing some things with the math. There's also a very interesting variable in Seth Jones games that not many other players have. And that is that I think when I pulled it up last over his career in Columbus, except for his first year, like 85% plus of

his minutes were with Zach Wrenski. And so when you have two players tied together that tightly, again, it's really hard to tease out individual results. And on that pairing, Zach Wrenski was always the offensive power. Seth Jones was always the stayback defensive player. We know that from what our eyes tell us and what the numbers tell us too. So there are some mathematical factors going in that could be playing around with, first of all, the data that we even just have access to because we don't have access to everything. And then what comes out.

Again, it's just really hard for me. last season, look, I'm with you. You throw that out the window. Any Blue Jackets player, I'm pretty much like you throw last year out the window. It was an abomination, to be quite frank. But I don't, I'm really curious to watch numerically, even if nothing changes in our calculations, what happens in Chicago? Because this will be one of the first times we'll be able to significantly see Seth Jones

in a completely different scenario and see what the numbers bear out. Because it's just, it's very curious. It is. think was back in 2017, 18, he finished fourth and Norris voting. And I actually thought he was spectacular that season. I think I even on my own personal fake ballot, I had on like second or third, that's not I forget the details. But it was, it was warranted. It wasn't a reputation-based vote. Like he was fantastic that season. And then this year, you're right. I think I'm willing to to throw it out just because it's 56 games. Things went off the rails horribly. There was so much

turmoil. They were basically playing out the string towards the end. Zach Wrenski was in and out of lineup and hurt. Like it's, there was a confluence of sort of factors out of his control, right? I think the concern for me is that if we throw out last year out of the window, it's still been a while since he was that version of version of his 2017-18 self, I believe, which now, if you're a Blackhawks fan, you're thinking, okay, well, he's going to be what he was in 2018, 19 and even 1920, even 20, even there are some red flags in terms of the analytics component of it, at least it's still a significant improvement on what we saw last year. So I think that's important to keep in mind. I think even as he gets older here, especially for the next couple

years, I do think we're going to look back at what happened last year as an aberration because I just find it hard to believe that he got that bad at hockey all of a sudden because like it was really bad. I've got some numbers right now in here. I don't even know if it's worth getting into them because they were all just uniformly catastrophic for the team and for himself individually. A hundred percent, 100 percent. And I know we'll get into this in a bit too. And I think

again, my position is that the player, a lot of, you know, and we love our friends at evolving hockey and congratulations to them for being able to do their work full time. Now that's amazing. Go support their work. But you know, some of their rankings and ratings that they came out with for Seth Jones, I just felt they're too

significantly low. Now, I am not saying, he's in the 99th percentile and everything. He certainly is a defense forward player. But, you know, when we get into the business side of this, even Seth Jones at 18, 19, 19, 20 numbers, that contract is insane. You know, when I did a thing on what he potentially could be making, getting to the realm of those numbers was a scenario where we were looking at Columbus, making the overpay to retain with some of the reputational issues they've had. That was the only scenario where I saw numbers coming into play like what he got. Now, congratulations to the player.

I mean, my goodness gracious, go enjoy. But, you know, that too, you know, again, we have two things here. What is the actual value of the player? And then what did this team pay? And as you said, both in acquisition cost and contract. I think the player is being undervalued publicly. But that contract and that acquisition cost, even if he's really, really, really good, too too much by Chicago.

Well, so you brought up a point earlier about the ice time. I certainly I'm with you in the sense that once you start getting into these extremes of ice time, there can be some wonkiness in terms of both the results, but also I'm sure just the psychological element, the fatigue, everything, right? You're wondering whether you're optimizing the player's performance once he gets into those crazy ranges. But at the same time, it also seems to kind of get, lionized or maybe even used as a sort of the be-all end-all in terms of analysis when it's like, well, this defenseman plays a lot of minutes.

And for me, I think it's more important, okay, does that player deserve to be playing those minutes? And is this the most optimal use of them for both themselves and the team? You know what I mean? Sometimes with these defensemen, it's like, this guy's a 25 minute a game guy. And it's like, well, he played 25 minutes this past season. if we were running the team, I'm not necessarily sure we would be sending them out over the boards for all 25 of those minutes. A hundred percent agree.

And I think, and listen, we know Columbus is not huge on a lot of people's radar. And so a lot of people point to the bubble playoffs as a coming out party. Eunice Corpusalo was tremendous in net. Everyone talks about the 18,000 overtime game with Tampa Bay. And, you know, again, that's where to your point, people were saying, look at Seth Jones. He played over an hour. Isn't this amazing? And, you know, when people say that to me, they say, you know, that was his coming out party.

I'm like, but should it have been? I didn't think it was that great. No. And to your point, just as we talk about aging curves that when you, if you pass that critical point, you're going to be on the downtrend, the same, in my opinion, holds true within the scope of a game. If you push a player past their optimum usage, you're going to get suboptimal results. And I think it's entirely possible that that is a wrinkle in the conversation.

that we are having about Seth Jones because Columbus wrote him hard. They played him a ton. Should he have played less to be better? Who's to say? But I think it's a valid point of conversation. Well, I guess the concerning thing about projecting future performance is I can only imagine that ice time is going to even increase if possible. Valid.

In Chicago, just based on what they paid to get him and what's around him. If you look at the depth chart right now, it's like there's going to be some pretty ridiculous ice time totals next season. and I think it's going to get lionized again by people that are like, oh my God, they're getting their bang for their buck. Look at him. He's out there for 32 minutes tonight. And it's like, yeah, they got outshot by an insane margin in those minutes.

And it wasn't good. And I think we're headed for a lot of that. So if people are already bored by this conversation, boy, you're in for an ongoing debate over the next couple years. Yes, 100% agree. Okay, so one final thing on his performance that I thought was really fascinating. I'm not sure if you saw this. obviously you've been seeing this with your own eyes up close on a much more detailed level.

But Jack Hahn, a friend of the podcast, had a really interesting breakdown, I thought, in terms of Seth Jones' skating mechanics and how that ties into some of the results we're speaking of. And I thought it was so interesting because when you see the player discussed, it's, oh, he's such a good mover, right? And certainly in a straight line, north-south movement style, like when he's just carrying the buck up the ice, and he's flying through defenders and getting straight to the net. It's like, wow, he, yeah, he's a great skater. But there are a lot of red flags in terms of his backward skating stride in terms of

maybe how he's overcompensating for not being able to deal with the rush speed. And he's just giving up carryings, right? I believe under Corey Schneider's tracking data, he gave up controlled entries on 67% of his entries against last year or something. Now, I wonder how much of that was, you know, system and coaching and in terms of what they were being asked to do. and maybe if you let the player free a bit more in terms of being aggressive and taking risks, they could get better results out of that.

But that's another concern for me here. And that ties into the shot metrics, right? It's not necessarily just, oh, we need the context. Like, this is why you got out shot. It's like, no, this is we're providing it. The skating was an issue. And I wonder, it's weird that for a 26 year old, that would be an issue. So it makes me wonder how much of that was coaching, how much of that was system,

how much of that was playing too much, like trying to kind of put all those puzzle pieces together. Yeah, you know, and I don't pretend to know the answer there. I think, again, though, that this is a valid topic to explore. I think one thing about Seth Jones is his build is such that even when he's maybe not technically sound, he makes very subtle moves that when they provide results, it conveys visually something really confident and strong and accurate, right? Even if the technical elements that went into it weren't so great. He has that huge wingspan. He has long legs. With a stick poke, he can break up a play. Now, to your point on systems, and, you know, again, last year, I kind of throw it out a little bit. But when Columbus was at its best, even two years ago, three years ago, this was a club that gave up quantity and focused on not giving up quality. So, you know, even back when they were stronger, the shot attempts against, they weren't winning those battles, but they were winning the quality. against battles as a team, as a team.

Now Seth Jones still struggled there, no question. But I, you know, again, this is the unique thing of him being paired with Zach Werenski. So Zach Werenski was basically told, you're not even a defenseman. You're a rover and you can do whatever. And Seth Jones, I think really, anytime I spoke with him, and he was always positive and welcoming of it, but he had very specific priorities in how he played because he knew how Zach was going to play. And he wanted Zach to play that way.

So I do think there's some system elements to it. And I do think that after the departure of Artemi Panarin, when the Blue Jackets' offense wasn't as potent, they didn't have as much of a threat. And the support that defenders were supposed to be getting from their forwards on the back check. And the forecheck was not as strong. It weakened neutral zone coverage. And I think to the point of entries against and transitional play, I think that, of course, impacts the defenseman. And now we come full circle again. If you're out there the majority of the time and your team is giving up travel through the neutral zone and giving up entries against

and you're out there the majority of the time. And your D partner is already up in the rush, a lot of those entries against are going to come against you. Yeah. Well, that's what makes the fit in terms of figuring what next year is going to look like for both him and the Blackhawks so interesting to me because there's such a night and day team in terms of the way they play maybe by necessity just because the personnel they had in the past two years as opposed to what Seth Jones is coming from in Columbus where there's such a rush-based attack but also they just they're like all right screw it whatever happens defensively happens we're going to give up a lot of goals and certainly as a team team based results they

haven't been there as such but he's going to have much more I think freedom to get involved and carry the puck and join the rush than he had in the past and so I'm willing to believe that his offensive results are going to look better. But the defensive numbers, I don't imagine are going to get too much better than they've been given the change of circumstances even there. Yeah. And again, some of the things that he would say to me that I was referencing earlier is he'd say things, well, you know, my first job is to defend.

So there's a double risk here too is that if he's playing in that Chicago system and it comes out the way we're talking about, there's a version of Seth Jones and I have not spoken to him since the trade, but there's a version of Seth Jones that says, holy crap, I've got to be even more defensive to make up for all, because that's how he's built. And now we're in an even worse situation. Because if he doesn't allow himself the freedom to jump, because he feels that defensive responsibility, now we, now we're even grimacing a little bit more. Well, and so let's get into the details of the trade now. I think we've covered the player. So the contract kicks in when he turns 20, 18, expires in the summer of 2030, which seems like a fake number.

I push back against the concept of the year 2030 existing. It seems untenable at this point, but we'll see how it goes. But he can't even really be bought out in the meantime, right? Like he, I think 40.25 million of the 76 million is tied up in signing bonuses. And I guess maybe like down in the final couple years after they pay one of those last huge signing bonuses, they could flip him to an Arizona or whoever the time is taking on big contracts for assets. But there's even like, I think there's $5 million in signing bonuses in the final, each of the final two years of the deal.

And I imagine some of those cash startup teams won't be lining up to take that and pay that bill as well. And so that's why I said at the start, it's like, this is going to be a really long term relationship between the two. And it's up to them to figure it out. I thought what the cap is $9.5 million in terms of when it kicks in, I believe, for the deal. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which will make him the third highest.

paid defensemen behind Eric Carlson and Drew Dowdy at that time, starting in 22, 23, assuming no one else gets paid more in the meantime. And each of those players, their extensions kicked in, I think, when they were closer to 30. And they had it, well, in Carlson's case, that you could point to the injuries, the lower body injuries that caused the dip in performance. But it's amazing to see how both those contracts are already considered to be quite onerous and limiting the teams in terms of financial flexibility. And, we're still like two years out from that even becoming the reality for Chicago. And they've just willingly signed up for it.

I think that's the part I'm struggling with. I don't know if you feel this way. But it seems like it was Dallas or Chicago in terms of places that he would extend. And Dallas, based on the price, quickly, bowed out and thanked Columbus for their time. So I'm struggling to figure out why Chicago then felt the need to also pay a premium to acquire I'm considering Columbus was going to move him, and there was literally one place that they could move him to for anything resembling this price. You know, and that's, again, that's what makes the deal so impressive from a Columbus

perspective is they didn't have a ton of leverage. Everyone knew the player wanted out. It had been reported nationally and locally that he had a two to three team list that he was willing to even consider talking long term. I mean, if this isn't the ultimate example of. of that free agency silly season. Because, you know, and the other thing I look at, too, and, you know, it's not the same term, of course. But we've already seen, we've already learned the lessons of when you have so much money tied up in a few players.

And you've still got Taze. You've still got Cain. Now you're going to have the Seth Jones contract kick in for a little bit of overlap. There's not, and we know, we know that for the next few years, we're not looking at a normal cap inflation scenario. We're looking at a fairly flat cap to consider this sound cap management. I don't care who the player is. To tie up that much salary in three guys is such a tremendous risk for me because we've seen the impacts of that already in Chicago of what you're able to retain,

who you end up having to move because you don't have the money. I just, it's, I don't, I don't, I, when a first, first round pick came back, I was like, that's good. when you had a player, a secondary pick and a first round pick, I was like, that's fine. And then you start to hear there's a second first round pick. I mean, I was floored, absolutely floored. Top two protected only. And I think there's reason to believe it's going to be, again, a top 10 pick or top 12

or whatever they got this year from them. And so, yeah, it was quite a price. I was struggling to understand the rationale behind future Chicago, paying a premium to both acquire him and then extend them. It's like it feels like one of those two should come at a cheaper price. because I don't understand you, the bidding against themselves. Let me tell you about Blue Wire Hustle,

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Shopify.com slash bluewire. Okay, so in terms of the return, do you want to talk about Boquist or Breen first? Because I think they're both really interesting sort of stylistically in terms of what they could provide this Blue Jackets team. Yeah, let's go BoalQuest just because that's the direct return. Okay. So eighth overall pick in 2018, a right shot defenseman, it's tough to all the metrics are so all over the place because he played such a sheltered role in such limited minutes. I believe he was like the 12th most frequently used Blackhawks player at 5-on-5 and like a bunch of forwards are playing more than him. So they were clearly like carefully manicuring his minutes and making sure that to ease him into the league.

Now the offensive results are very encouraging. I believe he was the 88th percentile in terms of even strength offensive impacts. We funny enough, haven't really seen him produce on the power play yet even though he profiles to be a, you know, an elite power play quarterback based on the skill set. And I think that's what's so fascinating about this return for Columbus. from me. It's like they got him and if you add Jake Bean into it, two young defensemen with significant offensive upside that not only give the team a fresh start in terms of like turning back the timeline and giving them cheaper options that are younger that can grow with the team, but also provide this this offensive ability that could signal a change in

terms of how we're going to look and how the blue jacks are going to look, how we're going to think about them in terms of the way they play coming from this era of being like this defensively stingy team that never really tried anything. And I think that that's interesting if that really is sort of the path, they're going down. And assuming, I think they are because if you look at the way they approach the entry draft with their picks, they certainly went for as high upside offensively as they could have with a lot of their choices. Absolutely.

And I think, you know, it's interesting. It kind of got lost in these past few years. But John Tortorella, when Seth Jones came to Columbus and then Zach Wrenski's draft drafted that summer, John Tortorella is on record going all the way back to them that he won. his offense to originate from the back end. He wanted more active, more aggressive defenders playing on the blue line. And when the team was at the quote, quote, height of their powers with the addition of Artemi Panarin, I think that's when you really saw that. That's when you see Seth Jones have that warranted Norris contender year. So I agree. I was curious because there's obviously been a

change in head coaches. And so I was curious what systemically might change for this roster. And to your point this signals to me and I like it that they're going to stay aggressive and offensively minded from the back end. And what I like to is that what's really more interesting, the wrinkles of it is that in my opinion right now, and I'm obviously not the coach and I'm usually wrong, but Boquist, I think is going to slot in in the second pair with Ladislav Gavnikov, because I don't think, you know, Zach Wrenski needs a very specific kind of partner. But I think that what's nice about this now is that the three pairs in Columbus before, each kind of had a very specific identity, wrinkles on a theme. And I think there's more alignment across the three

pairs potentially now, if this turns out the way that I think the organization hopes. And to your point, I think it solidifies more concretely and with more true talent what they want that back in to look like and how they want this team to play. And so that I'm positive about. And I do, on the powerplay side, Columbus's power play has been broken for like 18,000 years. So I like just the change in personal, first of all. And I do think I didn't love Seth Jones as the quarterback, didn't really love Zach Wrenski as the quarterback. So I really like that that specific skill set was brought in as well with Boquist. Yeah, I've got it down here. So in 2016, 17, they were in the top half of the league. that was the magical Sam got fourth line.

Sam Gagne, yeah, yeah. And I love that. I remember I wrote a big thing about it. Since then, this is year by year since 2016, 17, power play goals per 70, or 60, sorry, 27th, 25th, 28th, 28th. Oh, it's abysmal. So, so, yes, I'm looking forward to changes there, certainly. And I think Gabrikov, I think you hit the nail on the head there is such a fascinating

compliment to Boca's skill set. I mean, it's still so, he's still so, he's played less than. and then 82 games total so far in his career for Boquist, but the playmaking, just all the micro stats I've seen from Corey Snyder in terms of his primary shot assists per 60, the fact that he's drawn so many more penalties than he's taken so far in his young career,

just the point rate, if you look at it on a permanent basis, compared to some of the other top defensemen in the league, it's very encouraging. I'm really curious to see. And I hope, I hope, we'll talk a bit more here in terms of like the outlook for the team, for this coming season and sort of where the priorities will be and what it will look like.

But if anything, I just hope we get to see him in significantly more usage and just see what he actually has to bring to the table because I think the upside is very immense with him. 100% agree. Absolutely. Bean is a bit more interesting. It was clear that he was going to get traded. I thought he was going to get selected in the expansion draft. And certainly on the mocks they did.

I guess on that note, do you have any intel on the Gavin Bayruther situation in terms of what on earth happened with that pick? I mean, you know, open and honest, I think that's kind of an indictment of why Columbus has to do everything they're doing now, is that the options were so unappealing to Seattle that they went for a player that can go on a two-way that was cheap and there just wasn't anything else worth really spending on. That's the best take I can get. Yeah. Well, it seemed pretty clear. Initially, it was like, oh, it's going to be maxedome, And then it quickly became obvious. It wasn't.

I heard a lot of smoke that it was going to be Dean Kukan. And then it didn't wind up being. And I understand that because there's such a wealth of defensemen to choose from. I understand not going that route. But for me, it's like, just take Kevin Stenland. I understand it's not the sexiest option. But 25-year-old center, really cheap. You have his RFA rights.

I just, yeah, when the Gavin Beiruthor picked game, I was like, whoa, this is a, there must be a trade here. Right? And then I was like, no. no, they willingly chose Gavin Bavreuth. I was like, well, what's the deal? And everyone's like, no deal. We're like, what? Oh, man.

Okay, so yeah, with being, as I was saying, I think, you know, he produced big offensive numbers in the HL. I'm not necessarily sure that's going to translate to the NHL level, but there were a lot of things that I saw in terms of how he defended, basically the opposite of what we just said about Seth Jones. And maybe it speaks to the environment he was in where he was unable to do so in Carolina, but he so aggressively defended the blue line. And then it was so good at quickly pivoting, turning around, going to retrieve the puck and break it out. And in terms of you're talking about

that sort of modern way they want to play or how you want to activate the defenseman and go from defense to offense, Jake Bean seems like a perfect candidate for that. So to turn around and use that 44th pick on him was, I thought, a stroke of genius in terms of just capitalizing on an available player that otherwise might not have been available to them. I 100% agree on pretty much everything. I thought that that was the player. I mean, I swung for the fences a little bit and said, hey, if they could get Dougie in Seattle, why not go for it? They obviously didn't. But Bean was who I thought that would be the second choice there. I like the player. I like the upside potential. And for all of the things we just talked about of how Seth Jones played with Zach

Wrenski, this is where I think Bean is likely going to get the look as the partner with Zach to support that role, be aggressive defensively, be sound back there, but also initiate the rush, initiate the breakout. Again, I just everything that came out of that trade directly and indirectly for Seth Jones. I mean, what a return, what a wealth of opportunity for Columbus with what they acquired. Yeah. Neither you or I are huge rap. People I usually defer to people who have spent all year watching these players play and actually giving thoughtful opinions to them. But it seemed by all accounts that they knocked the draft picks out of the park. Kent Johnson at fifth, I was initially a bit wary just because when you hear of a player,

oh, his one concern is maybe his skating. I was like, that's not ideal, but much smarter people than I in a know seem to not be concerned about it. They say that his creativity and problem solving with the puck and playmaking is truly elite. And he'll overcome any of those skating deficiencies. he's, Cole Cillinger, arguably the best shot in the draft. It's crazy. By top-down hockey's projections, he has the second highest star potential in this

draft. And so they got him with that 12th pick that they got in this trade. And then Stanislav Svoso at 69th was 18th on elite prospects draft guide. And so I love what they did with those picks. I love what it signals. And I just love the idea that there's all of a sudden infusion of offensive talent into this organization. And so I think it's a no-brainer, I guess, which brings us to the big question here. So for next year, do you think that maybe it might be by necessity, but is this organization

positioned to be entrenched in the Shane Wright, Brad Lambert sweepstakes with the Buffalo Sabres and Arizona Coyotes who have certainly been making big moves themselves to position themselves nicely in that? Or do you think it's going to be a team that doesn't necessarily, have an appetite to fully bottom out in that way. We're going to try to at least have something to show for next season, considering how ugly this past year was, where do you feel they stand in terms of just the outlook? Obviously, they're never going to say,

yeah, we're going to suck next year intentionally. They may have no choice because of the personnel they have. But I'm really curious to see how they approach next season in that regard. Yeah, and my read on the situation is that yes. I mean, everyone, and I do agree, I'm not a draft expert. Many, many people are smarter there than I, but the people I trust, and a lot of people are saying, you know, it's these next two years have some of the most elite talent in terms of draftability. And Columbus is an organization that needs to draft and develop.

And they've never truly ripped everything down to the foundation, to the studs and then built back up. And I think that that is what we're seeing here. If you look at this draft, the talent is high, high, high end, but not coming to the NHL, definitely not next year. and maybe a little bit longer. And so if you look at this roster coming into the season, now they make the Cam Ackinson trade to get Jake Vorichek to hopefully help out Patrick Linae. Max Domi is out till December.

You still have a lot of piece parts that I don't know combine for enough offense. So next season right now to me reads like it's going to be very focused on building that defense for all of those players we just talked through, finding that chemistry. They still have a decision to make on goaltending. it ends up they might keep these two guys again, which is going to be very interesting. But there's just not going to be the offense next year.

And I don't think they want it. I think they do want to try and get as many high-end picks as they can the next two years and then shoot off like a rocket. And that's when their next window opens. Yeah, I guess, I mean, their 28th and point percentage, 29th and goal differential in 30th and expected goal share last year. So, you know, it's all relative. I mean, I'm just curious because it's very interesting how to,

they're going to position themselves, but maybe it's a nice balance of they can, they can provide, because last year was just so untenable in terms of just the optics of everything. I think there's a nicer balance now to be found between like, hey, we all these young players, look at the upside and the future hope and maybe even bringing in some of these draft picks when their college season ends or whatever down the stretch and give people a glimpse into the future while also not necessarily winning a lot of games. So you can kind of accomplish the best of both worlds, leave a better taste in the mouth for the fans while also having a high draft book at the end of the day.

A hundred percent. And, you know, part of what, well, a lot of things made last year so difficult, but one of the many was the expectations. And as you said, now there is hope. And, you know, there's a difference when a fan base feels like there's a direction and a plan and they see the future coming versus when you feel like everything's just disintegrating around you. And there's no direction.

And I think that's where how things felt at the end of last season that, you know, a person who follows the team said to me, I've never felt like a page was so blank before in my life in terms of what comes next. But now I think that, and you know, the team just wasn't playing, they weren't, they didn't seem to be playing for each other. They didn't seem to be playing inspired hockey. And anyway, this was a team that always had fight to it. And even that was gone this past year.

But I do. I think that there will still be energy, Elvis Merzleekins, the tremendous personality and tremendously fun to watch even when he's losing. I think there's going to be energy around the goaltending. I think there's going to be energy around these young defenders that will play. And I think there's going to be excitement for what comes next. And I think that the fan base can hold on to that. And if Brad Larson, who's coming in as the new head coach, can really be teaching these players.

And I think if fans and those following the team are seeing progress, even if it's smaller steps, but it's a continued progress, I think that's going to really change the appetite for the process that's going to take a couple seasons here in totality to. get the team back to where they want to be. Yeah. So what do you think of the Atkinson for Borchick swap? Because obviously, I think in terms of the local community there and sort of how he's beloved as a player, it was a big loss. I think from what I gather from their perspective, it was like, well, the contract ends for Warwick one year earlier. And they don't care about the higher cap hit because they're not going to be spending that cap right now anyways. But I thought, we'll see, because his numbers have dipped over the past couple years. But his playmaking and passing, I think, can you mentioned it maybe unlock Patrick Laine's shot a bit more certainly Emil Bavstrom has a great shot

looking forward to seeing passes to him maybe down the line we just talked about Cole Cillinger it's possible he's receiving passes from Jake Borkch I imagine part of the getting that specific skill set was also part of the reason why they made that trade yeah 100% and you know it's it's it's kind of a shame and it's kind of a disappointing series of events that it seems that the acquisition of Patrick Line is what drove this. and maybe in a vacuum is that, you know, I mean, there's a lot to say in hindsight about last year, but because that player is here and isn't moving, you have to move out of Cam Atkinson, which maybe isn't something that ideally the organization would have done if they didn't need to try and find a way to get something out of Patrick Line.

Who thought we'd be saying that? Find a way to get something out of Patrick Line. But yeah, so I think that it was the assets that they knew they either had to retain or wanted to retain, and Neil Bemps from being one, as you said, Oliver Bjork Strand, potentially another, that needs a setup guy. And particularly with Gus Nyquist out last year, they didn't have that. Their center depth is young and not established yet by any means. So if they can get a distributor to come in and try and find something, that's what they had to do. And, you know, there is a little bit of a nice community narrative.

Jake comes back home. This was a fan base that was very disappointed to see him leave when he did. in the ill-fated Jeff Carter trade. But Cam will be a big loss, both on and off the ice. I enjoyed the heck out of covering him. And very few players, even from what I see in other organizations, come into a market, commit so fully. He lived here year-round, has invested in the community

and also in building hockey in the community in very, very meaningful ways. So I see this as kind of an unfortunate decision that ended up having to be made and maybe a little bit of a sacrifice of a player that might otherwise be here. Wow. Yeah. I mean, you're mentioning Lina there and who would have figured I, one of the most unintentionally comedic podcasts I've done is me, yourself, and Maradettech. Great. I had so much fun chatting for like 70 minutes with you guys. But we deep dive the heck out of that Dubois for Line A Swap. And then at the end, passing, we're like, oh, yeah, Jack Roslovich was in this trade.

And then just how, especially like at the start, how it unfolded with Roslovich just making ridiculous plays and highlight reals and scoring a ton and either guy doing much for their new teams. It was like, wow. And so maybe it'll just become a running bit where at the end of every bar, I guess we just mentioned Jack Rossolich in passing. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah.

It's crazy. And again, I don't, I'm not laying blame at the foot of anyone. It's just this series of events. They're undoing their messes. They're up cleaning up their messes. and that's what it's going to take. And I think that's what John Davidson likes to do and has done in the past. And now he's got one more shot to see if he can do it the right way.

Well, and I think that's a good note to end on here. I think the reason why, and this was obviously, I think people are listening to a very generally optimistic take on the Blue Jacket situation. Right. And it's hard not to be just based on how things ended last year. And then now this kind of, well, really is a fresh start, both in terms of the personnel, but also if you look at the financial flexibility, I believe Oliver Bjork Strand is the only person that has a contract more than three years out on this team at the moment.

And so there's a lot of they're not tied down by anything unnecessary. They're not backed into a corner. They can really move forward with this now need to figure out what that team is going to look like, obviously. And that's a big hurdle. So I don't want people to come away from this thinking like, oh, Columbus is going to be great next year because that is certainly not the case. But considering where they're coming from, I do think this was an important weekend for them in their organization in terms of, of resetting the clock and giving themselves at least the fighting chance to get back to where they were as recently as two years ago. Yeah, I agree. And, you know, again, this was a hard time

for fans of Columbus because not only, as I mentioned, were perceptions completely missed, not just slightly, but completely missed, but also there were a lot of hard truths to look around the league. You know, the first round draft picks pretty much all gone, except for Zach Wrenski in terms of guys who are in the NHL right now. You're playing elsewhere. Alexander Wenberg's in Florida, Pierre Luc Dubois in Winnipeg, you know, Sunny Milano's barely even playing, but he's not with the organization either. There wasn't much to hang on to think that things were going to get better. And so it looked a bit murky, and I agree, I think this was a tremendously important weekend for this organization. And personally, they impressed the heck out of me. I thought they

did a tremendous job, both with nearer term deals, these trades, talent, current talent acquisition, you already outlined what they did in the draft, I think it would have been very hard for them to have much more success when we look at the realities of how this league operates and that, knowing that this is how the process is going to go. And I must give a shout out to the computer boys from Florida who joined this front office, Josh and Cam. I have to believe that their contributions were heard, valued,

and a part of this and full credit to them and to the organization for bringing that into the fold. I think the ripples and the tendrils of that show in these decisions, and that's exciting. Yeah, you certainly saw what the home run swings they took in the draft. I have no doubt about it. All right, Allison, this was great. I'm glad we got to do this.

I think we covered as much as we could in the short time that we chatted. Plug some stuff. I know you've been writing some stuff about the Cracken recently. Tell us about that. Tell us about where people can check you on and what you're working on these days. Yeah, so I'm a little bit everywhere. I'm fortunate to be doing some work with the Seattle Cracken as a contributor. So that's awesome.

You can always see everywhere I am writing by following me on Twitter at Allison L. And it's all right there if you want to check it out. Awesome. This was a blast. I'm glad we got the chat. And we'll certainly have you back on sometime down the road. Thank you so much, my friend. Take care.

So in between the time, we finished recording with Allison and getting the podcast ready for your listening conception, Mark Andre Fleury was traded to Chicago Blackhawks, as I'm sure you saw on Twitter. And since we talked about them quite a bit in the show in relation to Seth Jones in their outlook for next season and beyond. I figured I'd do some bite-sized analysis to that trade here, at least based on initial impressions. So with all due respect to Alex Nadekovich going to Detroit,

this move really marks the first big domino to fall in what we expect to be a busy off-season for goalie switching teams. Now, it's certainly not every day that you see a reigning Vezna Trophy winner get moved for literally nothing other than, I guess, caps-based like we did here, but there's so many layers to unpack in this trade. so let's work our way quickly through each of them for all of the parties involved. So first on Mark Andre Flurry, kudos to him for working his way back from a miserable year,

two years ago where he had a 904 save a above expected, a minus 14 goals save above expected. He lost his job to Robin Lennar, and he most notably suffered a devastating sword wound at the hands of his own coach. This past year, he had a 927 save percentage, a plus 19 goals save above expected, six shutouts in 36 games and was the deserving Wesna winner it's a testament to what an athlete and competitor he is that he did so at age 36 considering all the miles he's gotten his body at when I think it could have been really easy to just write him off and feel like it was the end of the road for him based on how it had gone previous to that but you know it is also the fact that he played so well it kind of makes it ironic and cruel in a way because this trade was

essentially made possible by the fact that he played as well as he did last year. Just 10 months ago, it was reported that Vegas was essentially offering anyone that would take the full freight of his contract as good as a second round pick to do so. And pretty much no teams were interested in doing so unless Vegas retained at least part of the salary. And that didn't make sense for them. So they essentially kind of had to keep them just because they had no other options.

So we'll see whether he goes to Chicago actually and winds up playing for them. It sounds like he was pretty blindsided by them. this and if the reports are true that he have found out through Twitter and that there was no real communication there who's kind of forced into this, then it really sucks. And I hope, you know, selfishly that this isn't it for him because he's really fun to watch. He's right up there as the most entertaining goalies in the league. And he's so easy to root for. And by all accounts, is a great individual. So hopefully we still see him playing in the NHL, whether it is in Chicago or somewhere else. But let's just for now work under the assumption that he does play next year for

Chicago because I did the Inc. It's a pretty interesting deal for them. Last year, they gave up the most high danger attempts and the second most expected goals against. And, you know, all you heard in this show, I doubt that change as much, even with the addition of Seth Jones this coming season. So they concede so much off the rush. They have so many defensive breakdowns and coverage. And when you're a team that plays like that, you need a goalie. to bail you out if you want to be competitive. And I think even at his age right now, there's a few goalies equipped to play better

in that type of environment than Flurry with his acrobatic style and his penchant for highlight real saves. So at least it would give them a fighting chance. And I do think they want to be competitive because they have this one-year window here before Seth Jones's mega extension kicks in and complicates things even further.

And they don't even have their first this coming season. It's top two protected. And I imagine they would want to be as competitive as possible, and they're incentivized to do so because you're not going to have that pick anyways. And so it may as well be as good as you can and not wind up having egg on your face, giving away the fourth or fifth overall pick. So in terms of if Flurry decides, he actually does want to retire and doesn't play for them, then I guess it doesn't cost them anything.

And they're kind of back to where they started. So it's a pretty minimal risk move in that regard, although you could argue that, that if that is the case, then they just essentially inexplicably helped a West team out of a corner for no reason. They cleared $7 million in cap space for them that they desperately needed. And I imagine there's going to be quite a few teams out there that are going to be pre-libid that they essentially enabled that and let Vegas off the hook. But which brings us to Vegas's angle here, because if they are keeping Alec Martinez at the roughly $5 million or so per year that's been reported, that means they've got

roughly 50 million tied up in five forwards and three defensemen and that doesn't include Jonathan Marshall's so Riley Smith, Braden McNabb, or a bunch of others. And so at that point, if you're trying to construct a team, you really can't justify spending $12 million combined on the goalie position. It's just a luxury that you can't really afford anymore. And so if there is a team that can be subtracting Mark Andre Fleury and without adding anything in return and being fine, it is them. They've got Robin Leonard at $5 million per for the next four years. He only just turned 30. and I think he's a really good bet to be in Vezna consideration himself this coming year. And with the cap room, they did clear, I think the attention is going to immediately turn to the big move that they're orchestrating next.

They're always up to something it feels. I can only presume that means getting involved in the Jack Egeltray talks. They were already heavily linked to it even before this when it didn't seem possible that they could make the finances work. And now that path becomes certainly more attainable. They're still going to have to maneuver quite a bit. but at least, you know, the first important steps towards that have taken place here. And so, you know, it's, it makes sense because it's what they do. They do this every offseason.

They're always involved in the biggest names available. And theoretically, it does address their biggest lineup hole. You know, they've added pretty much everywhere else. They added Alex Petrangelo in free agency as a top defenseman. They went out and traded for Mark Stone and Max Petrida's wingers. The top flight center is something that has always so far over the past couple years alluded them. And it's the one big piece they haven't been able to.

to add yet and ikel presuming health is about a big of a piece down the middle as you can add so that would be incredibly interesting especially if you know they can get him for some sort of package of futures which they obviously don't really seem to care too much about uh with Alex tuck being really the only major contributor off their present-day roster being moved to to help make that trade happen so um you know it also provides them with the option of if they do acquire ickel they can let him have his desired surgery. They can let him spend the full season on LTIR, bring them back for the playoffs, and can really afford to do so considering that their division is so weak that I think even without Jack Eichol and Alex Stock and whatever else they gave up in that trade or had to move on from to make

the finances work, I think they'd still be fine and still be atop the Pacific. So the trickle-down effect of this is really fascinating and there's obviously going to be a lot to watch for here moving forward. But I do think this is kind of the first piece. in a number of moves that Vegas is, is really interested in doing, especially after how disappointingly their last appearance ended, which was losing to Montreal. So anyways, we'll see what they do. But yeah, a reminder that they are, you know,

they're always, they're capable of everything. They're always up to stuff. And no one on the team is safe. And that can be both a blessing and a curse. But for our purposes here in terms of content and analysis, it is always entertaining. All right, I think that's going to be it. And that's going to be it for today's episode of the Hockey PEOCast.

Thanks for listening, as always. Hopefully you enjoy the show. And you've been enjoying the ones we've been churning out recently. Over the past couple days alone, we did a off-season primer for goalie movement with Kevin Woodley. We did trade deep dives with Harmon Dile and Charlie O'Connor and this one that you just listened to with Allison Lucan. So if you have enjoyed them, please take a minute to leave the PDO cast the rating interview. Smash that five-star button. If you're feeling extra good about it, you can let us know.

what you enjoy about the show, why you recommend people check it out. All of those are really greatly appreciated. A ton of you have done so already. And so thank you to each of you that have done so. Thank you for listening to the show. Keep checking this feed. There will be more off-season content coming here before we really get into vacation mode with some of the free agent signings.

We'll see over the next couple days. And we're going to do analysis on that. So we have that to look forward to. And until then, The Hockey P.D.O.cast with Dimitri Filipovich. Twitter at Dim Philipovic and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.