The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 418: Going All-In in Vegas

Episode Date: November 10, 2021

Jesse Granger joins the show to discuss Vegas trading for Jack Eichel, their aggressive team building strategy, how they're going to make all of the pieces fit when they get healthy, and how they're trying to survive in the meantime. Topics include: Why Vegas decided to trade for Eichel Why they were in a unique position to do so Trading draft picks for proven talent The pros and cons of their team building strategy How to optimally use him when he returns Idea of paying premium for centers Making all of the money fit under the cap Struggles to stay afloat with current personnel The context of Alex Pietrangelo's stats so far Balancing the short term vs. the long term If you haven't done so yet, please take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. Smash that 5-star button. Each one counts, and helps us out greatly. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a little note about why you recommend people check the PDOcast out. Thanks for the help! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

On a beautiful run through the park, on a pleasant day, you can easily get lost. No, no, no. She didn't kill him. Huh? In your true crime podcast. It was the pool guy. So obvious. Whatever motivates you works for us. It's all about letting your run be your run. And Brooks is here for every runner.

Doing the research and sweating the details to create gear that works for you. It's your run. Brooks, run happy. progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri, Philipel. Welcome to the Hockey Peelecast. My name's Dimitrippovich. And joining me is my buddy Jesse Grager. Jesse, what's going on, man? Not much. It's been a busy week. I just got back from a trip to Canada, first time crossing the border in like two years. So that was fun. And then obviously some big Golden Knights news while I was in Ottawa. Yes. Yeah. Well, we've had a couple of days now to let the trade set.

in to talk to people to think on it. I did initially, I think, what the trade happened on Thursday morning or whatever, I did a podcast kind of focusing on the Buffalo side, and now I wanted to have you on to break down the Vegas component of it and sort of Ikel and everything to relate to that. So I'm excited. Here's a logical starting point for us for this conversation.

So we did a show together in mid-June, I believe. It was right before the conference finals. We previewed, well, we talked about how Vegas shut down Colorado, then we previewed their series against Montreal. obviously that was while the postseason was going on. So we need to kind of consider that. But I actually listened back to it. And at the end of the show,

I pitched you on the viability of Vegas getting involved as a trading partner for Jack Eichol. And you seemed hesitant and understandably so, given the finances and given what a splash move it would be for a team that was already pretty good in competing as one of the final four. But I guess the good entry point here is so what's changed in the five month timeline since? what do you think from Vegas's perspective was the key driving force that really pushed them over the finish line and it made them truly not only consider this is a real possibility, but ultimately make the deal happen from there. I think it's a combination of the, I think the price was a little lower than I would have guessed. I think the price has probably gone down since Buffalo initially, like when when Buffalo and Jack Eichel had their medical disagreement, I think, and they initially kind of. brought forth the idea of trading him. I think the price then was a lot higher than what the Golden Knights paid.

And not to say that the Golden Knights didn't pay a heavy price. I mean, Alex Tuck is a very dynamic player who's ready. Obviously, he's still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, but he's a player that can absolutely make a huge impact. And he's going to play a much bigger role in Buffalo than he did here. He's going to get more minutes. And I expect him to produce. And then Peyton Krebs, I think another part of what goes into this is if Peyton

Krebs had been setting the world on fire in Vegas here for the first 10, 15 games, I don't know. They still probably make the trade for Jack because that's what this team does. And they love chasing the next big fish. And I'm already trying to figure out who the next superstar they'll trade for is. But I think if Peyton Krebs had stepped in and like obviously these injuries put him in a bigger role than they expected him to be in, if he had come in and played really, really well, I think this team would be saying, look at this.

We're against the cap. We need players producing on ELCs like that. We're getting it. We're in a good spot because he isn't. It's not to say Peyton Krebs is not going to have a good career, but he's clearly not ready right now to help a team win a Stanley Cup. And I don't think you can even debate that. He hasn't been good.

He's had zero goals, one assist in I think 11 games. And then if you go back to or 10 games, And then if you go back to last season, his start, he didn't have anything. He's not producing for this team. He's not create. And it's not like a case of he's creating a bunch of offense and just has had bad luck. He hasn't done anything. And that's where he's at in his career right now, he can't do what Vegas needs from him.

And I think that they look at it and say, this is the window. We haven't had the center play that we need. This young prospect is worth more to us as a trade asset to get Jack Eichol than he is to help us win a Stanley Cup in this window right now. And I think they're obviously throwing caution to the wind when it comes to the future. And they've been doing that for a couple years now. And that's continues with this move. But yeah, I think it's a combination of the price dropping a little and them not getting what they what they need right now out of a guy like Peyton Krebs. Yeah, it's always funny. And when you hear these trade rumors and trade talks, it's hard to know what to believe, but it seems like

every team definitely overvalues their own top prospects that they invested high draft capital in. And I know like for a while there, it seemed like, Braden Kerrabs before the season, as you mentioned, was kind of a bit of a sticking point. And then maybe the start of the season made Vegas feel more comfortable in that price. But I think it was ultimately a fine trade for Buffalo, given the circumstances. Like I saw, I think partly because of that Matthew Kachuk reported like leaked offer from Calgary at the start, which never was really actually available to them. I think people got their expectations just completely blown out of proportion.

And maybe understandably so, given the Jack Eich Close as a superstar. But I think realistically, like the list of teams that could not only fit a 10 million, million dollar player moving forward without just completely detonating their existing roster, but also could justify giving up futures the way Vegas did in this trade was just exceedingly small. It felt like most of the teams were kind of either in one camp or the other, they were a nice fit between those two. And I think also there was a lot of, I just think for Vegas where I stand is the reason they were ultimately in this unique position to make a deal like this was twofold.

One was given the way their season has started with all their injuries. And we can talk about that in a second. I think that's obviously out of their control. Like I think ideally they wouldn't have had all these players injured and they would have been rolling along as we expected them heading in. But I think the other part is, and what they do deserve credit for, is the way they've operated since day one. And I know you've been covering this team, you know all about this,

but it seems like they're just so all in on winning. And it kind of reminds me of what the L.A. Rams are doing in football, right? Where they clearly believe that first round picks are overvalued by the market has currently constituted. And they feel like, listen, we're more than happy to cash them in right now for proven talent and take our chances down the road. And we've seen that time and time again where I believe they've already traded each of their first five round picks, which if you include the one they used to get Thomas

the Tar for 2018, Nick Suzuki, Eric Brannstrom, Cody Glass, Bates, Bates, and that pick. And so it's such an interesting team building philosophy for me because it runs so counter or what we see from most NHL teams where they hold on to these, like they're the most prize possessions possible. And I get it. Like having a young contributor for the next seven, eight years making less than they're actually worth is a huge asset to any team,

especially when you have superstars that you're already paying max money. But I do think that I'm surprised that more teams aren't going this route, given the success Vegas has had. Yeah. And if they win the Stanley Cup, right? And like this is a copycat league and teams don't really start copying until you win it all. And I think if Vegas wins it all with this strategy of signing all these big free agents and trading for all these superstars, I think you will see a shift in the way teams do it. And more

teams will take chances like that. On the other hand, if they don't win a cup in the next, I don't know, three, four years, it's going to be a very painful rebuild. And I think teams will look at it and say, yeah, maybe we don't want to try that strategy. Right. Yeah, no, well, certainly. I mean, I do think, like, you know, part of the, and they're obviously aware of this, but it feels like when this is trade happened, everyone is just sort of going with the best case scenario route of, oh, you just added Jack Hekel, you didn't subtract anything from your current roster. Like, this is a no-brainer. And I do think 10 out of 10 times you make that trade and deal with the consequences. But we know often that in NHL, best case scenario generally doesn't work out and there's going to be unforeseen hiccups along the road and sort of potholes. And so it'll be interesting to see how they navigate that. But let's And all these moves obviously have been worked. I just mentioned that they gave up a future first for Thomas Tatar and then basically just have to give them away in the patch ready trade. But I think it's certainly easier to do it when you have buy-in from ownership, right,

that's willing to just spend to the extreme and to the extent they have every single year. But I also do view it as an admirable strategy because of what we just talked about, where it's so refreshing in a league that just populated by these conservative GMs that want to hang on to their jobs for as long as they possibly can. And so they justify their inactivity by being like, oh, well, it's really hard to make trades that are actually impactful. No one wants to give away their best players. And then Vegas just comes in and completely blows that out of the water by just unabashedly and aggressively pursuing roster upgrades every year. You know, at some points, I've certainly had issues with the way they maybe treated players and how they treated them as being as expendable.

But the end goal for every team is to win a Stanley Cup. And it's pretty clear that they have prioritized that above all else. and I do have to, you have to give them credit no matter what for that just because as weird as it sounds to say, it is kind of a bit of a rarity in this league where teams operate often with like different agendas. Yeah. I will say that the one, like they deserve a ton of credit, but I will say that like looking at this from a big picture, part of what they're doing though when they do this because

they keep acquiring players, whether it was trading for stone. They traded for stone and then they had to essentially give away Eric Hall and Colin Miller the next offseason. And they keep putting themselves in a position where they're over the cap and the only way to get under the cap

is to trade these players and when you do that, the rest of the league knows you have to trade them so you have no leverage and you essentially are giving them away for free. They did that with Erikaola

and Colla Miller. Then the next off season they needed to sign Alex Petrangelo they did. Then they had to give away Nate Schmidt and Paul Stasney. Paul Stasney and Nate Schmidt basically for nothing.

Then they go out and get Alec Martinez and, and Robin Lennar. And in order to do that, they had to give away Nick Holden and Mark Andre Fleury for free, coming off of a Vesina win, coming off the best season of his entire Hall of Fame career.

So I will say that this cap dance that they're doing where they keep adding big players, they are paying a premium for every player they bring in. And then they are unloading players for the absolute lowest value possible. So yes, they've built a super talented team. but when you look at what they're giving up to get these players and what they're getting when they, when they send players out, and they're probably going to have to do it again. If everyone comes back healthy, they're going to have to shed at least seven, maybe $9 million in cab space,

and they are going to get nothing for those players because the rest of the GMs in the league can see that they're the situation they're in. So yes, they deserve credit. They've built an incredibly talented team. If this team comes back and all these players are playing at peak performance, they are absolutely terrifying. to match up against. So they deserve credit for that and they deserve credit for being, for going for it. But at the same time,

there are false strategy. Yeah. Have you seen the signing bonus structures they have for this coming summer? Not that I think they care because they're basically printing money at this point. But I think last I checked, they have like $35 million in July 1st expenses on Eichlestone, Petrangelo, and White Cloud. So, yeah, there's just a lot of teams that especially given what they just went through in the pandemic,

aren't willing to, that's like a non-starter for them to begin with. So I think people maybe were overlooking like how few teams would have actually been willing to take on this type of a financial investment that they did at begin with, regardless of like all the on-ice stuff and the injury and everything like that. Right. We always look at everything in terms of cap dollars and cap space, but there's also the like someone. There's like 20 teams in the league that are looking at the actual salaries.

And it's interesting to me. Okay, so we can talk about like what they're going to do this year. I think that's a good problem for them to have because it means that every player will have come back healthy and they can figure that out. And in most cases, they're not just going to be giving away players. They'll probably have to pay or attach some sort of a sweetener to have teams take on those contracts to begin with, whatever they decided to do. But I was looking ahead because I think that's a bit more interesting here for me from like a forecasting perspective. So by my count, they currently have 72 million committed for next season to eight forwards, who are Jack Eichol, Max Patruetti, Mark Stone, William Carlson, Jonathan Marshes, So, Chandler Stevenson, Nolan Patrick, and Willa Carrier.

Four defensemen in Patrangelo, Shea, Alec Martinez, and White Cloud, and their two goalies. Now, I think teams are anticipating that the cap is going to go up about a million dollars to 82.5. So let's just say that gives them about $10 million worth in Wiggle Room, if that's the case, to sign RFAs and Nick Hay, Nicholas Waugh and Keegan Colossar, and then figure out filling out their roster because that means that They're also walking away from Riley Smith, so they all of a sudden need to replace him with another top six winger. And I think the elephant in the room here is what they're going to do with the beginning of Dadenov, because I think they've kind of boxed themselves into a bit of a predicament here, given his contract. And given the fact that he has zero five one, five, one or five minutes or something,

I don't particularly see too many teams lining up to help them off of that one. So I think that's going to be the big thing here where he still has a $5 million cap at next year and is actually, thanks to the classic Ottawa senators negotiation tactics owed $6.5 million real dollars next year. And I just, that's going to be a really tough one for them to finagle because I can't imagine anyone's going to take that without potentially even attaching a first round pick to that, given the prices we've seen in the past. Yeah, that's definitely the issue. Kelly McCrimmon mentioned during the press conference when they traded for Jack Eichol that

their offseason moves, trading Mark Andre Fleury, trading Nick Holden to open up caps, He was asked like, was that in anticipation with this possibility? He said, no, don't give me that much credit. And he's right, because he spent all that money on Jack, on, on, on Evgeny Dadaunov and La Ramos and Braswa. So I think looking back on it, if Kelly knew he was going to get Jack Eichol, you don't sign Dadaunov, you don't sign Braswa. You sign Martin Jones for the league minimum or whatever it is.

You sign a cheap backup. Those are two contracts that they look at now and think, man, I wish we probably hadn't done that in the moment. And I think a lot of people were kind of curious about the Dodonoff trade when it happened. I kind of saw the thinking. Like I saw why they make it. I saw it from their perspective, which was the guy was a stud between two really good players in Florida. He finished his place. He can't drive offense, but he can finish him. And this is a team that was creating so many chances and just couldn't finish it. So it's like, there's the guy. You can't, you could have said, we'll go get, go get a better finisher. Well, yeah, but teams don't want to trade better finishers for

for that much. They got him for relatively cheap price because they took on that contract. And they thought we're not getting the Ottawa, Evgeny Dadov. We're getting to Florida, Evgeny Dadov. Well, so far, he's been maybe even worse than the Ottawa, Fegnav. He hasn't been good at all. You mentioned no five on five goals. It's not just that. He's not creating. He's not, he doesn't look dangerous on the ice. I think part of that is they thought when we bring him in here, we're going to put him with really talented players like they did in Florida. And then all those talented players got hurt. So maybe when Stone and Patch Ready and Eichol, when these guys come back, if they say they trade a Riley Smith or whatever, I think there's a chance if you put Dodanov with the right guys, suddenly you get that 20, 30 goal scoring guy that they had in Florida. And obviously that contract looks a lot different if he's producing like that.

Whereas right now it looks kind of like an albatross. Right. Yeah. I remember you and I talked about this time. I thought it was given the fact that they just cleared all that cap savings on the Florida contract. I just thought it was so bizarre that they instantly turned around. And I think within a day or two, filled it with the down-off and Braswa. Like, the logic was certainly he's been a 15% shooter for his career. And this is a team that has struggled to turn expected goals into actual goals. And that makes sense. But it was kind of a luxury item that they couldn't really afford at the time.

And they certainly can't afford now moving forward. And I'm really curious to see what they do. I don't, on the one hand, like, he just might be, it might be so expensive and so prohibitive to trade him to someone because you're going to have to attach such a premium asset that they might have to trade away a better winger to clear money without giving away a pick or something like that. But that's going to be a tough one for them to swallow. And I'm really curious. It's also fascinating to me because some of those RFAs I mentioned just out of necessity with all the injuries have had to play up the lineup and play in more premium scoring roles, especially

Nick Waugh. And he's a player who I've really liked for a while now. And I thought that they'd be able to get him on a like a sneaky longer term deal as an RFA just because he wasn't putting up huge counting stats. But now he's playing in a scoring role for them eating a ton of minutes. And if anything, like he's pricing himself into a different tax bracket entirely as well. So it's kind of a certainly they're they're heading towards a crossroads, as you mentioned, like having to pay a price for all these moves they made. But I'm really curious to see what they're going to do to make all the pieces fit because it feels like there's still another at least one or two moves to come down the road. Yeah, Nick Waugh, I think I agree with you that right now he's doing that. But

I have a feeling that, like, eventually William Carlson's coming back. Like, he broke his foot. He'll be back in five weeks. That's not like the stone and the Eichol things, because Stones is a back and we don't even know exactly what's his issue with is with his back. And by the way, he skated today with the team for the first time and looked himself. But Pete DeBore still said he's a ways off. That one's scary.

You don't know when he's going to come back. You don't know what he's going to look like when he comes back. Same with Eichl and the next surgery. With William Carlson and Max Patch Reddy, they broke their foot blocking a shot. They're going to be back in five weeks. I think when those guys come back, Nick Waugh goes right back. to being third line center and he's a solid player. And I think by the time you get through the end of the season and like if they make the

playoffs, which right now isn't a certainty, but you hope they do. I think Nick Wall will kind of be back to the way we viewed him. Whereas like Nick Hague, there aren't any injured defenseman right now. He's just playing top line minutes with Petrangelo because when, when Martinez went out for a couple games, Patrangelo, I guess Pete DeBore asked him, who do you want to play with? He said, I think Nick Hague would do well there. He did well enough to where now they've they've put. Martinez, sorry, they are missing White Cloud.

So they do have an injured defense. But that's not the reason Hague is playing up. He wouldn't be playing down if White Cloud came back. So because he played so well in that top pairing role, they're putting Martinez back with Theodore because they're trying to get Theodore going. Theodore has been bad this year. And they need him to be good.

And he's played his best hockey in his career with Alec Martinez. So Nick Hague has kind of taken that top pairing role. And if this kid plays top pairing minutes with Petrangelo and he's scoring pretty well right now. Like he's putting up numbers. If that continues for the rest of the season and into the playoffs, he is looking at a massive raise from his like $700,000 that he's making on his entry level contract right now.

So I agree with you. Those RFAs are playing themselves into more minutes. And I think Nick Haig is a bigger raise coming to him than Nick Waugh does. And that obviously changes things. You've been getting top line, top pairing minutes from a guy that's making $700,000. And that's going to disappear real quick. Yeah. Yeah, no, that's very true.

You know, in terms of the on-ice fit here, Freikl, one thing I didn't want to talk to you about with was it, you know, the one philosophical change because certainly making an all-in aggressive move like this from a team-building perspective is something Vegas does. So I don't think that's surprising by any means. I think what it was a bit surprising to me just seeing them finally pull the trigger on this deal was it does represent like a bit of a change from them in terms of how they've filled out their roster where they, for whatever reason, been kind of reluctant or just haven't,

invested significant resources down the middle. And that's something that has really been of interest to me in the past because teams place such a premium on centers for a variety of reasons that they wind up kind of talking themselves into paying these absorbent prices just because a player plays that specific role. What Vegas was doing instead was saying, listen, we have the system where we feel like we can get a Chandler Stevenson and plug him in and surround him by wingers who technically cost cheaper than their center counterparts. And we can get the most out of them and put I'm in a position to succeed. And other than Paul Stasney, really, I guess, like when they went and signed him as a free agent,

and even that was for less than I thought people anticipated him getting on the open market. And they traded him a couple of years later to shed the salary. They haven't really gone out and sort of invested huge resources in a center. And we might, I might be making too much of it because it might be as simple as a guy like Jack Eichol becomes available and you can realistically get him. And you just say, screw it. We're going to just go get him and figure everything out after that. and it doesn't matter that he's a center and that we haven't paid for them before.

But I do think just in terms of the way they've gone about their business since their existence, really, I think it's an interesting sort of shift and kind of more in line with what teams typically do. Yeah, we asked Kelly about that the day of the trade. And he basically said, we're happy with our centers, Chandler Stevenson, William Carlson, Nick Waugh. Kelly's high on Nolan Patrick. Obviously, he coached him in junior. That's his guy. Nolan Patrick has been completely.

invisible. He's so far in Vegas. We'll see if that changes. He's, he's another guy that's injured right now and he was on the ice today for the first time. But Kelly basically said, we like our centers. We weren't in the market for a center. We weren't in the market for any other center. It was just because Jack Eichol became available. And like he said, he compared it to the Petrangelo signing last year. He said, we weren't in the market for a number one defenseman. Like we like Shea Theodore as a number one defenseman. We were not going to go out and spend money on any other defenseman other than we could get Alex Petrangelo and he wanted to come to Vegas. So we signed him. So I think it's and like they said, they actually said a similar thing about

Mark Stone. I think this is a case of not so much. And I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but I don't think they have this, this master plan that they're trying to fill, okay, we need to get this guy and we'll get, we'll get our number one center eventually. I think it's more a case of, oh, that guy's available. He's really good. He's better than anything we have here, let's do it. And then the next guy comes available and they just kind of have been going with the flow. And it's led to them getting almost every star player that becomes available through either free agency or trade. That's how I typically fill out my fantasy teams as well. Right. Someone's like someone posts in the trading blog that this guy's available. I'm like,

I don't really need this player, but I'm just going to get as many good players as I can. And we talk all the time about how teams should do that at the actual entry draft, ironically enough, or talking about a team that just never has top picks that we get with. But they're sort of approaching it that way from a team building perspective for their main roster, which I do think is interesting. Yeah, the Kelly McCrimman stuff, like the reason I guess why I brought it up, because I remember in the off season, they just were, and maybe it's because they were being asked about Eichol so much.

So they just felt like they needed to come out and say it. But they were like so vocal, I feel like publicly in terms of their belief in their centers, despite all of our, you know, conversations and rumblings online about how they needed to get another top center to, to match up against the best teams in the league and the come playoffs. But they were so focal pushing back. And then they went out and actually did it. And obviously, these circumstances changed between now and then.

But it does represent a departure from basically the way they were speaking at the time. And maybe it's as simple as you just kind of laid out. I also think that I don't think the Golden Knights devalued the center position. What I think happened. And like I remember talking with George McPhee back when he was the GM like in year two. And he basically said, we couldn't get center. Like, stars, star centers do not become available because the only way you get them is to draft them. And we haven't drafted in the top five ever because they had so much success right off the bat.

I mean, they had Cody Glass at six and he didn't work out. That was their one shot at getting a franchise center. And then William Carlson, that just was like poof out of nowhere. Like when they got him in the expansion draft, they did not expect him to be the guy. So I think it was a case of they're trying to work with what they have. top centers do not become available as unrestricted free agents for the most part. And when they do, it's John Tavares and he gets insane money from Toronto. And like he was going there regardless because that was his childhood team.

It's hard to get centers. So then I think what happened was they're in a spot where they can't really get centers. So we don't want to talk down about Chandler Stevenson and William Carlson. So to the media publicly, we're just going to say we're happy with our centers, even though maybe they weren't. And it wasn't a mindful ignoring of that position or a devalue. of that position. It was just, that's just what they could get. And we're going to publicly support those guys because we think they'll play better if they, if they have our public support.

Right. Okay. Well, maybe I'm getting way ahead of myself here because we're still probably what three months away or so from Michael actually stepping on the ice and in making this a relevant discussion. But since I have you here, I do want to, I'm sure you've thought about this as well, kind of brainstorming what this team is going to look like by the time everyone's healthy and they have all these pieces in place. And for me, it's such an interesting dilemma because on the one hand, when you acquire a player of Jack Eichols caliber, it's sort of natural to just pencil him atop the lineup and be like, all right, well, he's just going to step in and replace Chandler-Stevenson, basically, and we're going to play him with our two best wingers, and

that's the way it goes. You just play all your best players together. But at the same time, it feels like it is kind of you're bumping into this point of diminishing returns where when healthy, Stevenson, Petruetti and Stone have been so good and so dominant together pretty much every metric across the board, that it almost feels like it's a bit of a waste where you'd probably be better off maximizing your roster by having Eichol play with worse players that he can make better just because he's so talented. At the same time, then, it's like, all right, well, if you're playing Chandler-Stevenson that top-line role, because that's the way you like your lineup, all of a sudden, either William Carlson or Jack Eichol is probably playing less minutes than they should be. And that doesn't seem like an optimal usage of resources. So I was trying to kind of brainstorm what that's going to look like.

and I don't know entirely. The wingers will probably change between now and then, and they're going to have to make some moves. So it might be a bit of a mood point. But I'm curious what you sort of think is like the optimal deployment of all the personnel they do have up front. Yeah, I agree with pretty much everything you laid out there. I don't think it's optimal to play the top three guys altogether,

Patchretti Stone and Eichol. And the reason being, yes, that line will be spectacular. But Colorado's top line is like just as special. spectacular. And I feel like Colorado, like, you're almost just like matching up with them evenly, whereas you could, to me, they have two players on this team that now that they have Eichol that they make a line. You put Mark Stone on a line with anybody. That line's creating offense because he's just so damn good. Jack Eichael has proven for four years in Buffalo, put him on a line with just about anyone. He's going to produce because he's spectacular. So to me, putting Stone and Eichol on

the same line is diminishing returns. I think you putting those, splitting those two up to me is the key. And then from there, there are so many different options. And it's also going to depend on who they trade away because if all these guys are healthy, they can't play them all. So like putting together a projected lineup of all the players healthy, it's not, it's pointless because that can't happen. It physically cannot happen. Unless they were to like trade Shafedor, I guess, then, then you could. But to me, it's Eichel on one line, stone on another. You now have two incredible lines that teams will have a very, very hard time matching up with. And you've got two very different stars. Ikel, offense, he's in transition. He's fast. He threatens on the rush. Mark Stone is a

slower plotting guy who is a shutdown guy. He shut down Nathan McKinnon's line last year. You saw that. So you can almost use the stone line to shut down opposing lines. And now they've got to deal with Jack Eichel on the other line. Like to me, that's the best way to do it. And I would put William Carlson and Jack Eichel as my top two centers. So probably Carlson and Mark Stone with Riley Smith or Jonathan Marcioso. And then Jack Eichel and Max Patcheretti together with another wing, whether it's Evgeny Diannoff or whoever it is. And then to me, when they traded Alex Tuck,

what they lost was, tuck was such a good weapon for this team because he was a matchup nightmare. Because on that third line, teams just simply do not have the players to match up with a guy that's that good on the third line. Now, Chandler Stevenson is not Alex Tuck. He's not as dynamic. He can't create stuff on his own the way Alex Tuck can. But I do think that putting him as your third line center keeps that same sort of element that the other team is going to be struggling to match up with your third line.

If it's Chandler, Stevenson, Nick Waugh and Marcia so or something like that. Like that's a dangerous third line. So to me, Carlson and Stone, Eichl and Patcheretti plug in whoever the other two with those guys. and they're going to make whoever it is on that line look way better than they are. And then let Chandler Stevenson be your kind of down the lineup matchup nightmare that Alex Tuck used to be. I'm glad you said that because I've been thinking about this for way too much time for some reason. But you know how I feel about Mark Stone.

Part of what's made Stone and Stevenson's such an effective pair is, and we talked about the last time we got a show, we're talking about what made Mark Stone so effective. And it, you know, the steals and the defense are one thing. I think his ability to make the next pass before anyone can get set faster than anyone else in the league is, I think, as impressive, if not more and more vital to his success. And the reason why that was such a good fit was Stevenson was just like the ultimate retriever of Stone would get the puck in the defensive zone. And Stevenson would all re-bolting up the ice and Stone would just hit him time and time again for these outlet passes. And it feels like for me, you know, Eichol skating is obvious. see greater when healthy and I'm sure Stone and Ikel would be amazing together.

But it feels like a bit of a waste of Ikel's skill set where he's one of the best puck carriers in the league. And if anything, you want him being the guy getting the puck deep and trying to kind of get it out and create the fast break himself. And so it feels like stylistically, it's a bit of a waste of their two skill sets. But I certainly wouldn't be opposed to at least seeing them take those two guys for a spin just because they're obviously both elite and what they do. Right. And I also think in the playoffs, we see this. teams can shut a line down. Like Montreal got to the Cup final doing it.

The Golden Knights did it to Colorado. It happens to Edmonton every year. It happens to Toronto every year. When teams can focus in on one line and say, look, every time that line hops over the boards, this is what we're doing. We're sending these guys out. We're doing this.

You can, when you're playing a team seven times, you can game plan and you can shut a line down. I think if you're the Golden Knights, making it to where you either pick the Ico line or the stone line to shut down. and then you've got to deal with the other one. Rather than if it's Stone Patch Ready and Eichl on one line, it's like, we'll shut them down. And then it's just Carlson and Smith,

which is a good line, but not terrifying, not hard to match up against. I think it makes it harder on the opposition when you've got a stone line and an Eichol line. Certainly. Every deep playoff run starts with building an amazing team. Doing the same for your business doesn't take a room full of scouts. You just need indeed.

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Go to Shopify.com slash bluewire to start selling online today. Shopify.com slash bluewire. All right, well, let's kind of spin it forward then because, you know, at the time over this we're recording, there's six and six to start the year. They just got back from that aforementioned trip out east through Canada that you talked about somehow came through it two and two. I watched every single one of those games. I have no idea how they came out 500 from that because Robin Lennar. Yeah, well, yeah, certainly. Robin Lennar helped a lot. But man, they were, I mean, that Montreal game, they wound up winning. They were getting outscored. I was shot 22 to 1 at one point in the second period. Got absolutely steamrolled by the leaves at the start of that trip. But yeah, so they came out of it

because Robin Leonard, I believe he has like a plus nine goal save above expected or something right now for the season. Like he's been just a brick wall. But phenomenal. And it almost feels like it's kind of dumb for me to bring up these stats because it's just like evaluating this team, given the personnel they've been using is an inaccurate reflection of what they are. And it could change very quickly if Stone comes back here in the next little bit when Carlson and Patro ready come back obviously in a couple of weeks. But just for the sake of posterity, their 30th and 515 expected goals here. 27th in shock quality. No team is giving up a higher rate of expected goals against,

and they are, Robin Leonard has obviously helped counteract that a little bit. But for me, trying to navigate these next at least a couple of weeks here before they start getting some of these guys back is going to be a really interesting question because clearly they're overmatched right now. And I think just relying on Leonard to keep stealing games,

you could do worse than that, I guess, but it's also a pretty slippery slope. And the season could get away from them pretty quickly if things don't change. So they're kind of stuck in this holding pattern where obviously if they can get into the playoffs in this specific division with all of this personnel, no one's going to want to match up with them and they're going to be terrifying. But just trying to kind of piece it together and basically cobble one game together at a time and try to stay as afloat as they can in the meantime, he's going to be a really delicate balance. And I think that's something worth considering here when you evaluate this trade and when you evaluate sort of what this team's going to look like by the end of the season. Because I don't think it's necessarily a given no matter what we think of.

about the Pacific Division that they're just going to be able to waltz in given the way they've played. Yeah, for sure. And I think being in the Pacific Division helps. I think if they were in like the metro, staying afloat is a much, much more difficult challenge. In this division, obviously, Calgary and Edmonton are off to hot starts, but pretty much everyone else is sort of like. They haven't played a single coyotes game yet, right? No, they have not. So that's some automatic wins in the bank there. But I was actually joking with somebody about this earlier today, like the coyotes being in the conference giving everyone in the West automatic wins. I feel like the number you've got to hit, the points total you've got to

hit to make the playoffs goes up just because the coyotes are so terrible. Like everyone's getting an extra couple wins. But yeah, no, I do think that it's not a given that they that they will be on like in in the playoffs. They have to get there. And to me, the biggest concern is not the lack of scoring because there's so many reasons why that's happening. I think to me the biggest concern is defensively. They're giving up an insane amount of expected goals. And yes, missing defensive forwards like William Carlson and Mark Stone obviously impact that, but they still have Alex Petrangelo, Cheyodor, Alec Martinez, Braden McNabb, Nick Hague, all these guys are in the lineup and they are a sieve defensively. They have been in trouble. And it's also a trend that started in the preseason. And we

We tossed it aside. This is preseason. They're not playing all their guys. But for a team that has been one of the best possession teams in hockey for the last two years and not given up much, they were giving up a lot in preseason. And then that continued into the regular season, even the first couple games before all the guys got hurt against Seattle, they weren't as good defensively. That LA game where they all got hurt, Stone and Patch Ready and everyone, they were absolutely

horrific defensively in that game. And that has continued, not surprisingly, when all those players got out, they've continued to struggle defensively. So I'm not 100% sure that if tomorrow Mark Stone, Max, Patch, Ready, and William Carlson are back in the lineup, suddenly their defensive issues are fixed. I think there are still problems there that Pete DeBore has got to figure out and has got to get back to playing the quality of defense that they had the previous two years. So there are issues with this team. They are not this juggernaut that the roster suggests that they can be. And I think that they can possibly get to that juggernaut position, but they aren't there right now.

and the injuries aren't the only concerns. Right. I guess the argument would be getting those guys back, even if the defense doesn't get right, they're just going to create so much more offense that it'll help. But no, you're right. And I think, you know, I don't want to have a big Alex Petrangelo debate here about analytics versus I test because I think, like,

especially doing it on Twitter, it's just lacking so much context and nuance. Like what I will say is I'm not having watched these games. I'm not totally surprised that his numbers are bad as they are. And I also will say that I'm obviously not saying that it is his fault entirely as well. Right. Like just because of all these injuries, it's pretty clear. Like, they're stretching him so thin right now in terms of creating everything, being involved in everything.

And it's leading to a lot of scenarios where, especially at this point of his career, he just doesn't either have enough fuel in a tank or the foot speed to get back on defense. And he doesn't have the support with all those good defensive forwards out of the line. up. And so, yeah, when he's caught deep trying to create because no one else in the team can, they're going to bleed high danger and expected goals against because he's not back there. But it's kind of born out of necessity, right? So it's one of those things where I understand why the results are the way they are. And I'm also willing to acknowledge it doesn't necessarily mean that he all of a sudden sucks now. There's contextual factors to consider. Yeah, it's somewhere in

the middle, right? Like, he's not, he hasn't been perfect, but he also like the numbers are a little misleading. When you look at and he's like the worst wins above replacement in the entire NHL. And it's like, well, he is the team right now. Like when I watch these games, it, it is a direct correlation. When Alex Petrangelo is not on the ice, they cannot create offense. They cannot make their way to the offensive zone. And they do absolutely nothing. Every time they had, you see the goldenites and you think, oh, wow, there was a good shift. They had the puck in the offensive zone. They threatened a little bit literally every single time Petrangelo is on the ice. Like he is, when he's not on the ice, they can do nothing. And that's, again, Shea Theodore got injured in preseason. He

missed most of camp. Pete DeBore has mentioned multiple times that they think he's still trying to catch up from that and he's struggling to do so. They really need him to get going and to be the dynamic, puck-moving, offense driving guy that he has been because I think if that happens, suddenly Petrangelo doesn't feel so much pressure because those two are playing separately from each other right now. And I think if Patrangelo knows that I'm coming off the ice, the guy hopping over the boards is going to give us something. I think it allows him to not be as overly aggressive and maybe doesn't make as many mistakes with the puck as he has been lately.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt in my mind about that. And it's certainly not ideal. It is born out of necessity. But I do think even when they do become healthy and maybe this is why you'd go out and invest in a guy like Jack Eichol because we've talked about this even the past with this team where even at full strength, when so much of your offense revolves around.

to defensemen no matter how good they are. It's probably not an ideal way to be, to be sort of trying to create offense in 2021, as we know. Like it's a very low efficiency way, especially like shots from the point and coming from defensemen. And so just seeing how many shot attempts are coming from those guys, and especially Petranjo, I believe he's near the league leaders. It's like he needs to because they don't have anyone else there.

But this is something they need to figure out even when healthy because they need to sort of modernize the way they attack. And I think it's a big reason why every postseason it feels like we're talking about, okay, how does this team get into the dangerous areas of the ice? How do they get it into the middle to create scoring chances? And how do they turn all these Gody, expected goals to totals into actual goals and stop giving every goalie they face basically the playoff performance of their life? 100%.

And I think to me, that's why you bring Eichel in. I think you look at the way this team's season has ended the last two years against Dallas in the conference finals two years ago and then against Montreal in the conference final last year. The teams basically, and it was actually happening in that Vancouver series prior to the Dallas one too, teams decide, decide, look, you're going to create your offense from the point. We're going to create a shell around the net. You're not going to get these pucks through. We're going to have so many bodies in there. And the Golden Knights, as talented as their forwards are, they don't have guys who can beat players one on one with the puck and get into those dangerous

areas. Like Mark Stone, brilliant player. But when the defense is set, when all the, All 10 players are in the offensive zone and the defense is set up. He does not have the ability to cut through the defense and create plays on his own. He also doesn't have the shot to beat goalies from places. Like Max Patcheretti is really the only guy on the team where you can say, okay, we'll give him that shot and then he beats the goalie from there. Whereas Ikel does it with regularity. Like he regularly beats goalies from places that he shouldn't be able to beat him from.

And it's places that like you can't cover everywhere on the ice, right? You have to give up certain things. And I think he can beat teams, I think he can beat goalies from those places. And he can just give him the puck and watch him work and he will cut through that defense. And I think that he adds an element to this team offensively, not just with how good he is, but the specific skill set that he has is something that they've really been missing. And I think once you've got a guy that can cut through the defense, suddenly not only is he going to beat them on that, the team will have to change the way they're playing.

And then when they do, now guys like William Carlson and Mark Stone that weren't getting chances before are suddenly going to get chances because teams can't just sit back in that shell and force you to beat them from the outside. No, 100%. How much do you think this trade acknowledges not necessarily the appetite for this organization, but their sort of acknowledgement that this year might be a bit of a write-off with all the injuries they've had? And the reason why I bring that up, and I know it runs counterintuitive to what I just said about. a team that has prioritized trying to win a Stanley Cup every year above all else. But for a lot of teams, like the reason why Calgary never made sense for me for a trade like this was whether it was Matthew Kuchuk or whether it was another key sort of contributor of theirs that makes between that $5 to $7 million range, for them taking out a key player and having the uncertainty of not knowing when Eichel was going to come back and whether you were going to

get anything from this year was just a no-go. Like they just couldn't risk sort of punting this season with that type of a move. For this team, with all the injuries. they have and the fact that they top 10 protected this pick obviously shrewdly kind of covering themselves in case of the worst case scenario coming to draft lottery. It makes me think like, all right, this is obviously as much of a move looking ahead over the next three, four years of this deal as much as it is just trying to go, go, go for it this year, even though when you trade for Jack Eichol, it's clear that like it's more of a win now move than a long term move. Definitely. And the thing is,

like the chances of them getting peak Eichel, like the best Jack Eichel this year, are slim, right? I mean, the guy has played on one team his whole career. So he's just, we've seen with Alex Petrangelo, Max Patchretti, two players that played their whole career on one team. It took them some time coming to Vegas. Like Patrangelo did not look like Petrangelo for the first half of the season. Max Patcherty took a whole season before he started looking like himself. So just ignore the first guy to ever have this surgery in hockey thing.

Just him switching teams on its own. own, you don't know how it's going to mesh. And then you add in the uncertainty of him coming back from the neck surgery. He's going to be a little hesitant at first. Like, that's going to take him some time. And then you also have to think the guy's never played an NHL playoff game in his life. He's been on a team that hasn't had meaningful games for basically his entire career. So how will he react in like if they sneak into the playoffs and suddenly he's thrown in there,

like how is he going to react to that level of play? So I think there are a lot of reasons to believe that this move isn't necessarily giving the Golden Knights the best chance to win this Stanley Cup. But I think the next couple. And who knows how long guys like Patrick Reddy and Petrangelo and even Mark Stone are going to be at this level, like competing for Cups, leading a team to a cup. But I think Jack Eichol extends that window a little bit more. He's only 25. It's crazy to think about he's younger than Alex Tuck. Like it felt like they were giving up a young piece in Alex Tuck to make this deal. And it's like, oh, wait, actually they literally got younger swapping Eichael for Tuck, which is wild. But it just

Eichael feels older than he is because he's been in the league for so long because he came straight in. But yeah, I think I agree with you that not necessarily punting on this season, but there are a lot of issues when it comes to this season. And I also think George McPhee, he's a guy who knows how to keep his job, right? Like he was in Washington for so long. And I think watching this season unfold and all the injuries and the expectations and if this trade never happens and the Golden Knights missed the playoffs, there are some high. seats in the Golden Knights front office if they missed the playoffs this year and don't have Ikel. Whereas I think the trade for Ikel gives he and Kelly McCrimmon the ability to go to George or to Bill Foley and say, look, this season was a disaster. We had all these injuries. We traded for a guy

that's coming off neck surgery. But look what we've got next year. Like look at this team. And that keeps you your job, an extra season. And I'm not saying George McPhee did this move specifically to keep his job, but he's a guy who knows how to keep his job. And I think that this gives you another out, another reason to follow this path, if you're Bill Foley, who obviously is a super aggressive owner, who is trying everything he can to win right now. Yeah, it's certainly easier to sell that vision and that poster heading into next season when you're like, even if things didn't go our way in this 2021, 22 season, we have Jack Eichael. We have all these guys coming back from injury. It certainly checks out. I think, like, ending it with this, the big winner of this

was clearly Jack Eichael, right? I think, like, first off, most importantly, above all else, he can finally get the surgery he wants and needs and he can get healthy and move on with his life. I just think also stepping into the best situation of his career on the ice when he does come back healthy. I've recited his stat a bunch, but I wanted to just leave it here again. In his first five NHL seasons with the Sabres, Buffalo average,

1.79, 515 goals per hour with him off the ice, which is just comically bad and just a failure, a colossal failure by everyone involved that they couldn't surround him with more talent during that time to be competitive in any any capacity. And so just as a hockey fan, I don't know how you can't be excited about the idea of him finally getting to play meaningful NHL games and what this future could hold. So I'm excited about it. I think I'm glad that this is finally over and is to stop like hanging over our heads.

And yeah, it's going to be it's going to be a fun ride. It's weird to say that about something that could be, you know, three months down the road or even maybe before next season before we can truly get a glimpse of what it actually is going to look like, but it's good to get the wheels in motion. Yeah, I think this is, yeah, like you said, really good for Jack Eichol. The surgery is obviously the number one thing, but also playing with good players. And I also think, like, just talking to him over the last couple days, he just seems so relief to be done with the whole thing and to like know what team he's playing for. And then I talked to him about, like, how does it, like, he was thrown into a position in Buffalo

just because of his raw talent where as a teenager, you're the face of the franchise. You have to be the face of this team from 18, basically. And then he comes in and he's really good and he's the captain at 21. And we've seen that with other players and it's not super unusual. But being a captain at 21, there's a lot of pressure in that off ice, on ice, managing the locker room. And we've heard like, like, not character concerns, but like, was he the best captain in Buffalo? And I think that coming to Vegas on a team with Mark Stone, who's been an excellent captain for this team, Alex Petrangelo captain to team to a Stanley Cup Championship. Max Patcheretti was a captain in the most difficult

market to be a captain. Alec Martinez has never been a captain, but might as well be. He talked about how those guys can kind of take some off of his plate and he can just be a hockey player. Max Patchretti used the phrase, take my brain out and play hockey when he came here from Montreal. And I think that can do Jack Eichel a lot of good and getting him back to the level he was and perhaps even a level he said.

he's like, I think I'm scratching the surface. I think I can be better than I was in Buffalo. And part of getting him to that is taking a lot of the pressure of being the guy and being the leader and being the face of the franchise, he can just kind of come here and be one of the guys. It's not like he's not going to have pressure. Like he's still Jack Eichol, but he's one of the guys with three or four other guys. I think that will help him. It's a great situation for him.

Well, not only being the captain and having expectations of being the guy, but being what the organization has to show for. Connor McDavid basically, right? Like that year was Buffalo was understandably all in for Connor McDavid. And they tried everything they possibly could have to increase their odds of doing so. And the consolation prize they got was a really, really good one in Jack Eichel. But I think he even acknowledged this as much the other day, right? Whereas like, it's pretty tough when you're basically playing in Connor McDavid's shadow

because you're like the number two in that conversation. And as we're seeing this season with some of the goals, he's already scored. Like there's no shame in being the number two to Connor McDavid. but I imagine they must weigh on you quite a little bit when that's kind of the conversation you're constantly in. For sure. And again, now he's got a chance to, like, right now who has a better chance of winning the first Stanley Cup, Jack Eichel or Connor McDavid? I think you could make the argument Jack Eichael does. Well, let's not put the cart before the horse. Let's see Jack Eichael back on the ice. Right, right. Of the neck first. But yes, it's going to be a fun conversation to have. And he's got better reinforcements now, certainly. It'd be cool to see those two go at it in a playoff series.

Yep. Oh, man, I'd love to see Mark Stone versus Connor McDavid in a playoffs. Just because we saw it against McKinnon and how he held his own in that regard. And obviously, that's entirely different animal. But that'd be fun to see. All right, Jesse, well, this is a blast. I'm glad we got to do this. Plug some stuff.

What are you working on these days? What have you put out recently? Where can people check you out? Give us all that good stuff. Thanks, man. Yeah, the athletic. I've put out a lot of Jack Eichol content for everyone. into this. If you want to get further into it, I did some film review showing kind of the

specific examples of things he brings to this team that they've been missing. We talked about the playoffs scoring droughts. I really kind of highlighted that. Got a cool feature on him. His first two days in Vegas, dude goes from living in Buffalo to living in a casino in Vegas, which is quite the culture shock. So a cool story on that. I'm working on another Jack Eichel story here in the next couple days. And then obviously all the Golden Knight stuff, another big feature on Robin Leonard. You can go to the athletic and sign up. I think right now we've got a 40% off deal. We've always got some kind of deal on there. You can go to theathletic.com and sign up. Sweet. Well, this is a blast. I'm glad we got to do this and we'll certainly have you back on the show. So I found out the word.

Thanks for having me. All right, that's going to be it for today's episode of the Hockey P.D.O.cast. Hopefully you enjoyed my breakdown of the Jack Eichael trade and Vegas's perspective of it with Jesse Granger. If you haven't listened to the one we put out last week detailing Buffalo's point of view on it, certainly go and do so. If you're all jack-icled out at this point, I don't blame you as well. I'm ready to move on from this and cover other things as well. So we will certainly be doing so moving forward. I've got a really fun show planned here for hopefully over the next couple days,

or if not, early next week, but you have that to look forward to as well. And then we're going to keep the ball rolling and keep cranking out the PEOCast. So thank you, as always, for listening and for supporting the show. if you'd like to do so and haven't done so yet, you can help us out by leaving a quick little rating and review. Smash that five-star button, write up a little quick review that lets us know either what you enjoy about the show or why you recommend people check it out.

And thank you to those of you that are done so already. Thank you in advance to those of you that are going to do so now. And that's going to be it for today's show. So we'll be back here soon. Thanks for listening. And until then. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovic and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash HockeyPedioCast.