The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 428: The First Domino
Episode Date: February 15, 2022Kent Wilson joins the show to help break down the Calgary Flames side of the Tyler Toffoli trade. Topics include: How to judge moves at the time they happen The timing of the trade Benefits of doing i...t now rather than waiting Picking Toffoli over other available options Where his greatest impact will be on the Flames lineup The team building approach and going for it Upcoming contractual decisions for Calgary 'Darryl Sutter Hockey' If you haven't done so yet, please take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. Smash that 5-star button. Each one counts, and helps us out greatly. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a little note about why you recommend people check the PDOcast out. Thanks for the help! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.
Transcript
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progressing to the mean since 2015.
It's the Hockey P.DioCast with your host, Dimitri.
Welcome to the Hockey PtiodoCast.
My name is Dimitra Philpovich.
And joining me as my pal, Ken Wilson.
Kent, what's going on, man?
Oh, what's up?
Not much.
It's been an interesting time to be a flames fan
and the last little while, that's for sure.
It certainly has.
Well, let's jump right into this.
Let's talk about the Tyler Foley move
and sort of our thoughts on it and try to unpack it as best we can.
So when evaluating trades, I typically try to sort of keep,
two central tenants in mind when I'm trying to try to judge them. One, I think we need to go off
the information we have at the time and sort of the information the trade was based off of,
too often I see people say, kind of push the, kick the ball down the road by saying,
oh, well, we're going to have to see how this plays out and judge it based on the results.
And obviously, this is a results business and how far the flames go in the playoffs and what they
get out of to Foley and doing so will obviously shape the perception of this trade.
when we look back at it two, three, five years down the road.
But we also, I think, have to judge it based off of what we know now in terms of the
player Tyler Foley has been, how he's profiled and sort of where the flames are at
in their organizational trajectory in terms of how they've been playing this season.
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.
And then the second one is, I think sometimes we can be a bit too binary in our analysis
in terms of asking, okay, did the team improve or not?
because obviously you do want to improve, but there's an opportunity cost involved.
And if you're leaving value on the table, that needs to be considered as well.
So I guess that's kind of maybe even the more relevant part of this calculus here in the sense that the flames got out ahead of the market and sort of push the first domino down and made the first move in acquiring to Foley with all these other names still on the board.
Do you think that this was the right player to target?
Do you think this was the move that made the most sense?
Or do you think that potentially playing this out or maybe even going, you know, hunting for a bigger name would have made more sense based on what the flames need?
It makes a lot of sense from a lot of angles.
So one of the things for the flames is they've needed a good right winger for a long time.
Troy Broward didn't work out.
James Neal didn't work out.
They've they've had problems, you know, developing right wings and picking right wings at the draft.
You know, Kachuk's playing right wing this year.
Manjapani's played right wing.
Coleman's played right wing even though he's left.
So it's a huge gap on the team.
Like right now, Brett Ritchie plays right wing with Monaghan and Dylan Dubay,
and he doesn't have a single point in the entire season.
So, yeah, huge gap in the lineup that they filled.
But the package they gave up is a really good one for the organization,
just because going into the trade deadline, they have, you know,
just a handful of top-level prospects.
they have almost no what I would call blue chip guaranteed stars in there.
There's Coronado.
There's Zeri.
There's Peltier, Valamaki, if you want to call him a prospect still.
And that's really about it.
It's they've done.
Can't put some respect on my boy Dustin Wolf's name.
Dustin Wolf, right.
Yeah, great.
Goalie, of course, a lot of people are wary about goalies until they make it.
But yeah, great.
Great asset.
So, yeah, it's a handful of guys.
They've done well with the picks they've had, but they haven't picked high or often
recently. So they don't have a huge prospect who to pick from. So and then you have obviously the risk
going into the trade deadline, shooting for, you know, a Pavellski or Juru or a hurdle and
coming up empty. And then now what are you going to do? So I like this move from all those angles.
Yeah, certainly. And I imagine the baggage they, they have as well in terms of, you know, just narrowly
missing out and finishing second place in their pursuit of Mark Stone and Jack Eichol more recently
certainly played into that as well where the longer this stretches out, more likely
it is more teams get desperate to get involved.
They're kind of establishes a last-minute bidding war for one of those players.
And I think it's fair to say this has been a flame scene under Bradshaw living that's
been relatively measured with their team-building approach.
Like I know they were obviously aggressive in free agency a number of times in terms of
shelling out a bunch of money for players to, you know, in some cases it's worked out.
Obviously, in some cases it hasn't.
but especially in the way they seem to value their draft picks,
especially first rounders,
where they feel like they need to have those guys in place
to kind of build up this organic pipeline.
They cost-controlled young players can come up and work their way up
and they won't have to worry about all of these financial decisions
for years down the road.
Do you think it's fair to say that the way the flames have viewed this thing
has been kind of more sort of cautious in terms of especially in-season
aggressive moves where you used to watch a rival like Vegas
where they seem to not care at all about drafts.
They're just constantly pushing all in
and their risk profile is about as high
as you're ever going to see for an NHL franchise.
I'd say there's certainly more conservative team than the flames,
but I'd say they kind of trend towards that,
that more conservative range compared to a team like Vegas.
Well, and True Living was pretty aggressive,
especially earlier in his tenure,
and he's in town here, he's always known to be in on deals.
He's always rumored to be, yeah,
true living's call on Eichol, he's calling on Stone.
I just think part of it is that gets harder and harder to execute as you spend assets, as you lose cap space.
They spent assets on Mike Smith, on Hamannick, on the Dougie Hamilton trade is one of his best.
And then he flipped that for Lynn Holm and Hennepin, which has worked out.
But as he went along, he lost certain trades.
He lost cap space.
So he didn't have a lot of flexibility to execute on those trades.
So I just think I think he was in on a lot of stuff.
it just got harder and harder to actually make them happen.
If I was a, if I was a GM,
I would just be constantly buzzing Pierre LeBron and Elliot Friedman and Kevin Weeks
and all of these insiders just letting know,
I'm in on these moves.
I'm active right now.
I'm trying the best I can.
I'm fielding calls.
I'm sending some feelers out.
I'm making offers.
It hasn't worked out,
but I'm involved.
You can't blame me for that.
Yeah,
it's entirely possible.
It's a way to deflect criticism too.
But, yeah,
it could be.
he's they're not at all aggressive, but that he just has a reputation for it in the,
in the press. But from what I could see over the years, he just had less ammunition to get
anything done as well. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a fair way to frame it. You know,
the contractual component of this is interesting to me in the sense that I think, you know,
you often hear about how teams are generally wary of making big moves for rentals because the window,
you know, to cash in on that is so short. And we know how.
random the playoffs can be and pretty much adding any player, we'd like to think it's going to make
a big difference. But in reality, it probably moves a needle by like a couple percentage points
in terms of your playoff odds. So it makes sense the teams would prefer players with term.
I think where it's interesting for the flames in this regard is obviously to Folli at two years,
4.25 per after this season is a great value, right? If you walk to the open market and you could
get Tyler DeFoli for two years at 4.25, I imagine most of the
team would be quite interested in that, a very affordable sort of middle six winger at least.
But for the flames, you know, they have a lot of financial questions coming up where
Johnny Godro, Matthew Kuchuk, Andrew Munjupani, even all of her Shillington, they're all up
for new deals. They've all performed so well and produced at such high levels so far this season,
that they've certainly earned significant pay raises and they're going to have a lot of leverage,
at least the UFA's there, heading into free agency this summer.
So the flames are going to kind of try to have to balance two things,
where I imagine they would like to retain all those players,
and they certainly have some wiggle room in terms of contracts,
they could potentially move that are currently off of their books.
But in locking in a player at 4.25, like Tafoli, like this,
do you think they view it as sort of security or insurance in case one of those negotiations
goes wrong where, okay, well, at least we know that we have a guy like Tafoli
for the next two years at a very good price?
Or do you think that they viewed it as, all right, well, let's play this year out,
and then we'll see how those negotiations go.
and, you know, worst case, if we wind up having to spend more money than we thought,
Defoli has no trade protection in his deal,
and we'll be able to reroute them to pretty much any number of destinations to make that money work.
Yeah, it's probably more the latter, honestly.
They like the player.
They like more right now, and they view the contract as high value.
So once they have to come to those other bridges in the offseason in the summer,
they will cross those.
But right now they want to figure out what's the best,
deal and player for right now.
And how do we make it work in the long term as well?
Well, so the flames, the conversation around them is really interesting.
I think they've, no pun intended, burned people so many times over the years that it seems like
excitement is generally pretty tempered for a team that has a statistical profile that they do,
where, you know, they've, by any measure, been one of the best five-on-five teams in the league,
a third in shot share, second and high-danger chance share, third and goal share, second and unexpected
could goal share across all situations they're actually up to seventh in a goal scoring rate.
Only the hurricanes give up a lower rate of goals against them they do.
They've got legitimate candidates, at least to be finalists for the Vesna and Markstrom,
the Selke and Linholm, the Hart, Goodrow, and the Jack Adams and Sutter.
They've had some downright dominant performances of late where they've just completely pummeled
their opponents, right?
They had 62 shots on Columbus.
Recently, they had a game against the Blues where they scored like seven in a row on them,
I believe, and outshot them 35 to 9 along the way.
It was one of the most lopsided 40 minutes or hockey that you'll ever see in an
HL game.
And so you look at all of that and you say, all right, like, it makes sense that this
would be a team that pushes the chips in, that they really makes a move to try to
solidify their group and really increase the likelihood that they can make a long run
this season with what they have.
The fit of DeFoli is very interesting to me because on the surface, you would think that those
top six is pretty solidified, right?
in terms of the two combinations they have right now,
I really like them.
So you're talking about a player who certainly is going to give them special teams utility,
but for the most part of 5-15 is probably, I imagine,
in an ideal world,
going to be a third-liner for them.
And I think that's some of the concern or potential kind of mitigation
and the enthusiasm behind this deal for certain people,
is that we just paid quite a bit for a guy who,
best-case scenario,
is going to be playing on a third line for us.
Yeah, we can, let's get after the first.
first part first. Like it's, I've written about the flame since 2005. I professionally wrote about
them from about 2009. I don't write about them any more professionally, but I've, I've been
following them very closely for that amount of time. And this is the best flames iteration I have
seen in that period. So there was a lot of frustration in the offseason heading into it,
especially around the Eichol situation. It was, the fan base felt the flames had to pick a lane. They
either had to decide that this year they were going to rebuild because of the pending
UFA of Johnny Goodrow or push all your chips in.
And when, you know, nothing really happened in the summer aside from signing Coleman and
Good Branson and stuff, it was like, okay, well, are we just going to do this middle of
the road stuff, which has been sort of the fate of the franchise for a very long time now.
And to see the team sort of get to this point and then to see the GM go in with Tofoli,
It's nice.
You're starting to see actual excitement kind of crest, at least in this market,
because it's like, okay, we've picked the lane.
We're going to try to be contenders.
So that is a big part of it.
But on the Tofoli thing, no one's really worried about where he slots in in terms of second or third line.
Up until like the last probably four weeks, Calgary was kind of a one line team.
You had Backland and Coleman who were kind of struggling to score, Dubay and Monand,
still struggling the score.
The fourth line wasn't scoring, but Adam Rizica just kind of come up and
give them a shot in the arm.
So the flames, you know, actually scoring and being dominant is only kind of
in the last, I'd say, four or five weeks here, if that.
So the other issue is obviously risk, sorry, injury risk, right?
So if you have a kachuk go down or a Manjafani go down or even a Coleman go down,
you don't want Brett Ritchie going up the rotation.
it's a lot better if it's Tyler to fully.
Yeah.
Well, I mean, Daryl Sutter might want Brett Richie moving up.
He seems to like him quite a bit.
But yeah, I think, yeah, that, you know, the first line, they're outscoring teams 40 to 12 in 5505 on five minutes.
So far, it's about as obscene of a magic as you're going to seek.
Like, I think clearly been the best line so far.
And obviously, you know, a lot has been made of Magiipani.
He's scoring on the road.
A lot of course, he's, I think, entirely random.
He scored more at home recently.
and Coleman and back on are obviously very good players.
So that trio makes sense.
I think getting more out of that third line and kind of identifying that as the pressure
point you want to target for this team in terms of how you can most optimally improve
the output makes a lot of sense because Monaghan and Dubay have this very interesting profile
where like a lot of the underlying shot metrics look good.
They seem to be getting chances.
Like if you just strip away the actual goals and what they're getting out of it,
you'd be like, all right, this is perfectly fine.
and we can definitely roll with this.
But then you look at the fact that they have seven and nine five-on-five points, respectively,
which puts them behind Nikita Zedorov and Eric Granson in scoring for the team.
And that's clearly not good enough.
The team is only shooting 3.7% with them on the ice at 5-15.
And that's probably a bit sort of unsustainable in terms of they're eventually going to start
scoring regardless of whether Tyler Bedlick or Bedrich or whoever was on the ice with them.
But I think adding to Foley and a player with his skill set and his sort of track record of being able to,
not only score goals himself, but help create chances, help drive play in that regard,
help especially attack kind of that middle of the ice, below the dots,
kind of that premium real estate where you ideally want to target,
where you want to attack offensively, especially against good teams come to playoffs.
I think that's going to help a lot.
And as you said, bumping the likes of Pitlick and Richie either out of the lineup or
down the lineup as well in the process helps a lot.
So I think I'm very, very curious to see how to fully help them in terms of turning
some of these shots into goals and whether he can help kind of maximize the time that they have
been spending in the zone because certainly if they can get that third line going with the way
the top six have been playing recently, that essentially not only shores up one of their existing
weaknesses, but really just doesn't give the other team a lot of like reprieve over the course of a
game to relax if you know that there's three lines that are going to be coming at you that can be
buzz saw. So I'm going to be very fascinated to see the effect that Tofoli has on those two guys,
assuming he does play with him. Yeah, it's definitely the loan sort of soft.
spot in the roster right now. I think they're getting
outscored. I think their goal shares
39% at even strength, even though
they both have
expected goal shares of 55%
or better. So
yeah, Monaghan isn't the same
player he used to be. He's suffered a lot
of injuries, but he is kind of getting
back up to speed now. His shots,
his individual shooting really
sort of hit a ditch
last year and this year. But it
started to come back up. And I don't know
if he's ever going to be the finisher he was, but
at least he and dubay are definitely getting looks.
So whether it's to Foley playing with them or they put,
you know,
Manjapani or Coleman down with them,
it should be a better and more dangerous line.
It's so strange because when he came into the league,
that was kind of his calling card, right?
That just consistently elite finishing.
He's clearly had, you know,
he had a brutal injury that he dealt with for a while.
That was clearly dragging down his performance.
But even this year where it seems like he is healthy for the most part,
it hasn't been there.
And we know,
we know that,
you know,
shooting percentage
can be very fleeting,
and there's very few players
that year over year
you can bank on
to be well above average.
But I really did think
that he was going to be
one of those guys
based on the way he started his career.
And it just hasn't been the case
the past couple of seasons.
Well, he's,
he's gone through a lot.
He's had multiple risk surgeries.
He's had hernia surgery and recently hip surgery.
And from what I've heard that he basically had to relearn
how to skate.
Like he came out in the,
offseason and said, I couldn't bend over and take face off properly.
I couldn't sit properly because of my injury.
So it sounds like he's kind of had to rebuild himself as a hockey player.
And of course, the other issue is he's not playing Johnny Goodrow anymore.
And he's the sort of talent then that can help you raise your on-eye shooting percentage.
But in the end, I think Monaghan's going to have to be somebody else that he, you know,
that he wasn't when he was a rookie in a young player.
And maybe he's figuring that out.
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for everyone. Need to hire? You need indeed. Yeah. Well, we'll see. I think adding a player that can
help to help set the table for them a bit more in Tofoli, we should help a lot with that.
Is there any other stuff with this trade? Like whether it's integrating to Follone into this lineup and
obviously the connection with Sutter or, you know, the timing of, you know, we talked about how
they set the market and got out ahead of things. But I think the fact that they have this upcoming
sort of jam schedule where they've got 17 games between now and the deadline, I imagine also
added a little extra incentive for them getting this done now, bringing to Foley and helping them
in this race that they're currently in with Vegas for first in the Pacific, which is obviously
going to be valuable in terms of locking down home ice advantage and whatnot. But is there any
other sort of component of this trade that we haven't considered? Because for me, looking at it
from the outside, like, I think we generally are supposed to play the role as analysts of wet
blankets in terms of tempering excitement and being like, all right, well, let's not get too carried
away. There's this stuff to consider, especially if a player's wrong.
providing some sort of unsustainable percentage or whatever and when we have to wind up kind of
pumping the brakes on the excitement. But in this case, it really does seem like it was a very
logical trade, even for both sides, right? Even from the Canadians perspective, like, yeah,
I'm sure some of their fans are bummed out about the way the season's going and moving a player
that's as good of a player at the price that he is as to Foley kind of signals that they probably
have a long haul here in terms of the rebuild they're approaching with the new management group
they have and they're probably going to just try to trade everything they can away for as many
picks as they can and sort of rebuild at a slower pace that way. But from the Flames perspective,
like targeting that and sort of identifying a player with to Foley skills and then going out
getting them for the price they did really does seem like a slam dunk. So we'll see how much it moves
the needle. But I think just on the surface, like this really is one of those rare trades where it just
makes a lot of sense. Yeah, I think the most interesting aspect is sort of the Daryl Sutter
connection. Just to rewind a little bit, like this, this team at the same point last year
looked completely lost, hopelessly lost at this point in the year last year under a different
coach. They didn't, they weren't all pulling in the same direction. Nobody seemed to know what
the system was or what they were trying to accomplish. And Sutter has really turned that around
in a pretty short period of time. As you said, he's a Jack Adams finalist this year almost
certainly. So having a player that he knows, that has played with him, that knows the system,
that knows a lot of players on this team, Lewis, Uchich, Tanev, I think he's played with at least.
So it seems like Tofoli can just kind of come in, be comfortable immediately, know what's
expected of them, know what kind of system the team is playing and just slot right in, which is
not always a guarantee when you had someone midseason.
Well, the way Sutter is perceived, obviously he's been around the league for such a long
period of time and he's kind of viewed as sort of this old school coach, right?
certainly certain elements to to what he's looking for players he might prefer that they kind of
lay credence to that but i think in preparation for this season i was kind of looking at their metrics to
end last year and it got lost in the shuffle a little bit because they were just playing out the
string with those random makeup games against the canucks and and you know they weren't competing for
the postseason and so there was no real reason for people to be really kind of glued to what was
going on or the way they were playing or how they were trending but a lot of those defense of metrics
really started to take hold to what we envision with with a Daryl Sutter team when it's when it's
operating at its at its best right like they were so stingy for the final whatever 2025 games are so under
him and you know Markstrom wasn't himself he was hurt he was in and out of the lineup and so
having a healthy Jacob Markstrom certainly helps quite a bit but once again those those metrics
defensively are where they are I think the thing for me is that gets lost in the shuffle is
when this team is playing its best and the way Daryl Sutter wants them to play it's
It's not really boring to watch, I don't think.
Like there's periods of time where there might not be concrete events to point to,
but like they want to play fast, right?
Like they want to be flipping the puck up the ice as quickly as they can
and creating and sort of constantly moving.
And that's exciting hockey to me to watch.
So it's interesting.
Like a common critique is, oh, well, you know, classic Calgary Flames.
They're going to win and Jacob Marksons going to have a shutout and they're going to give up
18 shots against.
And I'm sure they would love.
that to be the case every single game because it means they're doing something well and
winning pretty comfortably. But there's a lot happening on the rush in these games. And I think
that ideally they are a pretty, pretty rush heavy, exciting team to watch when they're really
firing. Yeah. No, this isn't, you know, boring Daryl Sutter Hockey as it's sort of been known.
And sometimes Sutter hockey can be that. If he doesn't have the horses, he's going to strangle you.
Right. He's going to have a system where he makes sure that it's,
difficult to score on his team.
But he has the horses with his team.
He's put together one of the arguably the best first line in hockey.
He's let do goodro do goodro things this year.
You know, there's probably five flames on this team having career years right now.
And this is not smothering his own club in terms of their offense.
It's his goal is to smother the other team, but allow his own players the rope to go out there
and create as well.
Certainly. All right. Well, I think we covered every important angle here with this trade. So Kent, plug some stuff. Let people know about the, the Discord that you're running for fans to come and chat at a thoughtful level and kind of share their, share conversations and observations and what have you about the game. So plug that stuff.
Because obviously, as we talk about, you're not writing these days. So I'm not going to ask to plug your written content. But the Discord is pretty cool.
Yeah, I have a Discord server called Big Body Presence.
It's an inside joke for anyone knows me.
Yeah, it's mostly for flames fans.
If you want to talk about hockey using, you know, scouting or charts or numbers,
I'm comfortable with all that sort of stuff.
It's high signal low noise, hopefully for anyone who's out there on Twitter.
You can find the Discord link on my Twitter.
It's Kent underscore Wilson.
And yeah, come and join if you want to talk about numbers and hockey.
All right.
Well, this is a blast, man.
I'm glad we got to do this.
I'm glad that you have something exciting and optimistic in your hockey life right now.
So enjoy this.
And we'll definitely check back in sometime down the road.
Thanks a bunch, man.
Just now.
All right, that's going to be for today's episode of the Hockey PEOCast.
As I'm sure you noticed, this was a shorter show than we're used to doing.
Normally, the PDO cast is known for doing its 90-minute deep dives on certain subjects.
So I think in this case, I want to get into doing kind of shorter, bite-sized.
shows that are more timely, reacting to relevant trades, transactions, things that we can
really sink our teeth into and unpack. And hopefully we're going to get to do more of those
between now and March 21st when the trade deadline hits. So, you know, last week,
towards the end of the week, we did a quick show talking about the Oilers firing Dave Tippett
and making their coaching change and kind of where they go from here. Now we did this
conversation on the flames and their acquisition of Tyler Tofoli. So I'm sure we're going to have
plenty more opportunities to do this moving forward and hopefully you enjoy it and get some use
out of it.
I know it's a bit different in terms of the programming compared to what you're used to from
this feed, but hopefully it'll allow us to crank out more shows and kind of constantly be reacting
to stuff.
So if you did enjoy it, please consider leaving us a rating, leaving us a review for the show
wherever you listen to podcasts.
A lot of you've done so already.
You know the drill.
It's really easy to do.
You just smash that five-star button.
And if you're feeling extra generous, you got some free time.
Take a minute to write up a quick little comment about what you either like about the show
or why you recommend people, check it out if they haven't done so already.
So each of those helps us a lot, and every single one is greatly appreciated.
So thank you for doing that in advance.
Also, if you're enjoying my work, you're looking for more analysis and more content.
You can certainly subscribe to EP Ringsside as well, where I'm going to be doing a lot of written breakdowns of trades like the Tyler Tifoli one to go along
with the usual deeper dives and kind of more random and less timely content about, you know,
random topics and analysis and so on and so forth.
So I highly recommend that.
We've got a great team there with a bunch of fantastic analysts that are creating really
cool, unique, thoughtful content on a daily basis.
And obviously with the draft coming up here, I'd recommend that as well.
We obviously didn't talk too much about the Canadians' perspective for this trade.
because I think it was sort of more obvious what they were trying to accomplish with it
in trading a player like Towers to Foley away for futures.
But for Canadians fans that are still listening,
if you are looking for more content,
I'm sure we're going to have a ton for you this summer with the draft coming up in Montreal
with the Canadians holding 12 picks at the moment.
And I'm sure likely to add even more to that treasure trove over the next couple of weeks
with future trades they make.
So keep your eyes peeled to that.
and our breakdowns of all the draft eligible players and rankings and so on and so forth.
So we'll be back soon with more on this feed.
Thank you for listening.
Thank you for supporting the show.
And until then, here is the outro music.
The Hockey P.DOCAST with Dmitri Filippovich.
Follow on Twitter at Dim Filippovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.
