The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 440: They Have Good Players and They Play Hockey Well

Episode Date: May 30, 2022

Thomas Drance joins the show to help recap round two, and look ahead to the Conference Finals. Topics discussed include: Trying to match up with Connor McDavid How Leon Draisaitl has found a way to be effective Edmonton's improved depth and remaining issues Colorado's transition game What makes the Avalanche so good Florida's game plan vs. the Lightning Tampa Bay's defensive structure and personnel The Avalanche and Lightning team building models If you haven't done so yet, please take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. Smash that 5-star button. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a little note about why you recommend people check the PDOcast out. Thanks for the help, each one is much appreciated! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

On a beautiful run through the park, on a pleasant day, you can easily get lost. No, no, no. She didn't kill him. Huh? In your true crime podcast. It was the pool guy. So obvious. Whatever motivates you works for us. It's all about letting your run be your run. And Brooks is here for every runner.

Doing the research and sweating the details to create gear that works for you. It's your run. Brooks, run happy. Pressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey Pediocast. Welcome to the Hockey Pediocast. My name is Dimitri Philofovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Thomas Tran, Tom, what's going on, man?

Damn, let's do this. Having our two to three time a week, nerdy hockey conversation. But this time, for the consumption of your listeners, love to do it. Thanks for having me. That's right. Well, we were joking. It's really we're just pressing record. Otherwise, we would probably just be having the same conversation with the same excruciating

detail and nerdiness. Maybe a couple of takes that we're not quite as comfortable sharing on Mike, but other than that. Yeah. Well, we'll see how it goes. I mean, listen, it's an early Sunday evening. We're going to go watch Celtics Heat Game 7 after this. So we're going to be tried to in and out of here efficiently.

So here's the plan. We're going to recap round two and kind of apply it to previewing the conference finals. Yeah. We are recording this before game seven of Rangers hurricanes because those pesky Rangers decided to screw with our plans and force a game seven. Or is it the pesky hurricanes who just refused to win on the road? It's one of those for sure. So we're going to touch on that series.

And I think we're going to more so apply it to like when we talk about the lightning Panthers, then we're going to talk with lightning because we know they're playing. So then we can be like, all right, maybe this is what either of those teams could do against the lightning more so than focus. The Rangers could show up. That's about all they can do against the lightning. I thought, well, we'll save that for later. Yeah.

So let's start. with Oilers Flames. I think that's the very natural starting point for us here because... What a sexy series. What a sexy series? And also like, I mean, you have to talk about McDavid. I feel like you can't have a hockey conversation today without starting with that. I mean... That one also passed the mom test. Right. You know, like, my mom was asking me about that series. She was like checking in with me. You know, my neighbors, I'm neighbors with a guy named Gord. My next door neighbor is a guy named Gord. Who's a big Oilers fan, of course. It's the most Canadian thing about me other than the fact that I'm a hockey writer. Yeah. And like, I'm a... I felt like that was a series that actually captured people in Canada's imaginations. Like people were following that series, tracking that series. I feel like that resonated in a way that, you know, I can't think of the last time a a hockey series has in the last two and a half years.

Like it felt big, felt bigger than just the games being played. And unfortunately, it ended too soon, right? I mean, the Oilers. I don't think that's the barometer, though, because I imagine I would have captured the attention of everyone in Canada, regardless, do you think it did enough to break through into the actual mainstream of the United States with them having it on ESPN and everything?

I don't think so. Not the same way anyway, particularly because it was happening so late. That's true. But, you know, I do think McDavid McKinnon has a shot too, and we'll get into that too. But, you know, at the end of the day, there's two things that I think are the stories of this series, right?

Obviously, it's more complicated than that. The Oilers have gotten some really good performances from guys like CC, McLeod, you know, Zach Hyman. And that can't be ignored. But for the playoffs, like this to me is the, is the oilers stat you need to know, right? For the playoffs, with McDavid on the ice, five on five, it's 25 goals for. It's nine goals against plus 16.

Right. Unbelievable. Without McDavid on the ice, it's 10 goals for 18 against. And that, and that to me is, you know, McDavid, Domlessision, I saw at the Athletic sort of compared McDavid's impact to that of an NBA player. And for sure, I mean, David's gone playoff Jimmy on the Pacific Division. And it's been scintillating.

Like I'm so happy to see an elite player have this type of impact because it feels like Haley's comment. We just so rarely see a guy will, a pretty flawed team in my view, through multiple rounds of the playoffs like this. It's awesome to watch. Okay. I knew you were going to come with that stat. And I'm going to come with a bit of a counter.

Okay. So I agree in round one. It was very lopsided in that regard. Like really, especially towards end of that series, it was like McDavid just willing them. Yeah, to everything they did. In this series against the flames, they were up 14 to 5 with McDavid on the ice at 515.

So that means that they were down 10 to 5 in the non-McDavid minutes, which is bad. If you remove the Josh Archibald minutes, where he somehow miraculously got outscored 5-0 in 28 minutes of 5-15 ice. I don't think that's miraculous. that's not surprising at all. Well, I agree. But what I'm saying is if you strip that away,

and we can talk about whether you can strip that away in a second here, but then you basically are breaking even. And that's really all this team needs to do based at the level that McDavid-Jetter are playing out. Oh, if they break even, they're winning. Yeah. In the non-McDavid minutes. I don't think they can. Well, maybe not in this coming series.

But for this Flame series, I guess the reason why I wanted to bring that up was, obviously we're going to talk about what McDavid and Drey Settle did, and it was remarkable and heroic and all of that. but like there were contributions from players beyond that line up and i think maybe that stat like without the context of like the fourth line was just a tire fire like the other the second and the third line were actually quite good um and so they took over that series as it went along right like by by games four and five they were the better team no matter what game state you preferred in my view yeah and yet that blake coleman disallowed goal is unbelievable i'm still not really

over it. I'm still stunned that that cold didn't stand. I didn't watch it live. I was at a comedy show, but once I sort of caught up to everything, I just can't believe that that's how that series ended. I do feel like we kind of got deprived of some really good Saturday night hockey anyway this weekend, just because that should have counted every time. Well, here's a story for me in this series. It's much more nuanced than this, but at the root of it, Edmonton's best players were better than Calgary's best players. And the reason why that's relevant is because the flames clearly enter this series with, I don't want to say, you know, a disregard for how they were going to handle the McDavid minutes, but I think they were probably pretty confident that they felt like they had the superior team based on what we saw from them in regular season, especially at 5 on 5 that they could handle the round of play, right? I felt similarly.

And so they really seemed to have no sort of strategy in the first two games at home with the benefit of home ice in terms of how they wanted to handle those McDavid minutes. Like if you look at the distribution of ice time, it was pretty much evenly. split between like Lidholm, Backland and Cali Yarn Grove. They were kind of just rolling lines. I think they thought that they could play their game and force Edmonton to react to them and they were wrong. They definitely did because in games three and four in Edmonton that stopped. Woodcroft did a very good job of being like, actually we're going to target your first

line with McDavid because we feel very good about that matchup. He's really good, huh? He is. He's a really good coach. We'll do more on him in a second here. In game three, McDavid played one minute total against Michael Backland. And that wasn't by accident. No.

And you could tell, like, I'm a big believer that actions speak louder than words for coaches. Like, coaches will say a lot of stuff in the media. But then you just purely based on how they play their players and how they distribute ice time, tells you a lot about their inner monologue of how they feel about their team at the moment. And in game five, with their season on the line and last change again in Calgary, like he was trying to get back on out there every single time he possibly could against McDavid. And unfortunately, for them, it was too little too late. but I imagine if he could have a do-over

like he'd have a bit more of that sense of urgency to play the match-up game like right from the jump, even though they did win that game one, I feel like it kind of diluted them into thinking that that was the right way to go about it. Yeah, no, I think you're right. For sure.

And I mean, at the end of the day, like I'm thinking about the series too and there were some moments where, you know, the flames were chasing and it felt like Johnny Goddrow was going to find three open players in the slot if you gave him 30 seconds. You know, what's amazing about the idea that the

oilers best, the John Maddenism you threw at us, right? The Oilers' best players were better than the Flames' best players. What I, what's most impressive about that is I felt like the Oilers or the Flames' best players were actually pretty good. Right. Like I felt like Johnny Goddrow had a pretty good series. I know Matthew Kachuk didn't score a ton, but I felt like he was doing Matthew Kachuk stuff more shifts than not.

It kind of just didn't matter. McDavid was at just such a different level, especially once Drysidal and Kane, you know, once they came up with that trio, it felt like their trajectory, put it this way. You know, once the flame, the Oilers made the coaching change, right? It's like they were in Mario, they got like the mushroom, right? And then once they threw Kane with DryCidal, they got a star. Right.

Or a cape, whatever you prefer, whatever Mario item you'd prefer in this analogy. Yeah, I'm with you. And it changed, it changed their level. Like, I'm almost trying to think, like, when was the last time? we saw an alignment change in the first round that sort of altered the ceiling that a team might have as fundamentally is that changed it for the Oilers. I think you have to go back to Seidenberg being put with Chara in 2011.

Like honestly, I can't think of something I've seen in 10 years that has substantially altered how I think about a team as the playoffs run along, as that changed did for Edmond. Yeah. Well, I know it like on this, surface what I said about like their best players are better than the rest of where it's like yeah obviously

but I think the reason why is such a relevant point is because like you rarely do you get to see such a big chunk of a series played in this capacity where like both teams just like you see their best lines go against each other usually you have like manipulation of matchups where like one team at home is trying to get their defensive center out against their scoring line to free up their line totally in this case we saw a lot of age two age versus linholm right yeah what McDavid McDavid against the best line in the NHL this season. And he just took it down. That's the crazy part.

Like I was trying to be critical of Sutter of like, oh, how could he not do this from game one? And then it's like, well, this line outscore everyone 73 to 31. Lindholm is a finalist for the Selke. Yeah. Like they came in as the favorites. They had a good finalist, by the way. Yeah. I just want to tell hockey Twitter that.

Yeah. And deserved. It's, and it was really weird because as you watch the series play out, like the stats were one thing. But like from the eye test, it really did seem like when Backlin was out there. like it looked different for the flames. Like they actually had a bit of a chance. And like I think they still lost two to one or something in those minutes. But they only gave up two goals on McDavid in like 30 minutes of Backland was out there.

They got smoked seven to two in like 35 minutes with Linholm out there against him. And so that really was the story for me in this series. I guess. Do you, so let's take this lesson, the lesson that Daryl Sutter learned too late. Right. And if Daryl Sutter is learning a lesson too late, you know it's a tough lesson to learn because Darrell Sutter's the best, right? So if Daryl Sutter's taking multiple games

and it's too late for him to make the adjustment, Jared Bednar, I'm sure, is being kept up at night at the moment looking, you know, at stats pages and video and trying to figure this out. Cadry, right? Cadry Nchuschen, you got to, you got to, I mean, that's what you got to do, right? Well, he's, I mean, first off,

Bednar is blessed with much better options here in this regard. Just in terms of the, like, the variety that you can throw, especially with the wingers. Like I feel like the wingers that the abs have like Lekinen, Nachushkin, you can even like Landisog. Like you can mix it around and basically feel comfortable that some combination of those players will give you the best shot possible to at least give.

Lecinen is actually an underrated like luxury for them here. Because there's not a lot of guys who both can keep up with McDavid and who you know will work hard enough to get back. You know, like a lot of the guys who can keep up with McDavid are like happy to do it, skating forward, maybe not so happy to do it, skating back. He's one of them. He's one of those guys. No, he is. I guess, you know, I was thinking about that for this series. Part of what complicates matters when you're trying to match up against this version of McDavid. And I guess you can't

give Woodgrove too much credit in terms of like he's playing the best player in the world a lot. But from this perspective, in terms of how meticulously he's manufacturing like shifts for him between like TV timeouts and stuff to like maximize the number of times you can get him on the ice. here is ice times since game six of round one when they faced elimination for the first time. 24-02, 27, 23, and pretty much all these are regulation games. 2533, 21-30, 20 and a half minutes, which was the game the Oilers went up before and I'll think against the Flames. Is this McDavid or Adrian a coin?

Like, this is incredible. 2215 and then 2616 in the clincher against the flames. The reason why I bring that up is it's one thing for you to go into a game with the strategy of we're going to get our best, whatever our preferred unit. it is against McDavid. But if you're chasing that matchup so much, that means like you're probably not getting your best players on the ice a lot because you're just basically saying like, all right,

half the game is going to be our quote unquote checking line. Yeah. And if that's not Nathan McKinnon, I'm not sure that's a great strategy for the abs to be so focused on. At the same time, 10 days from now for like, why were they so laissez-faire in their approach in terms of matching? You just have to limit the damage.

I mean, there's still a lot of non-McDavid minutes, right? Yeah. And you just have to limit the damage, I think, in my view. When you're blessed, too, with, you know, Nchuschen's probably a top five two-way winger in the sport. I used to, I used to think evolving hockey needed to watch the games when they said stuff like that.

But now I kind of agree. Like, you know, he's not. Well, his game has also opened up so much offensively, though. Totally. But he's making passes in the offensive zone that he wasn't making. But it's the combination. it's it's the combination of like size smarts active stick the ability to use that size like he definitely looks a little markstone light um but faster but a better skater and maybe not quite as

good on the wall but i mean you know mark stone light in terms of his defensive impact so you've got that you've got cadry cadry's not a selky nominee this year but i mean cadry's the gold standard or are certainly up there in terms like who's a 30 goal scoring shutdown center in this league like Cadre is one of the top five or five guys who match that description. He's certainly a high-end version of Backland at the very least, right? I just have to go with those guys, a heavy dose of those guys. Because again, the goal's not even to outscore them in those minutes. It's just a step, like, just don't bleed out.

Just don't bleed out. I think the ads are lucky that Jared Benner is their coach, because in the wrong hands, this could be a lot of game six hero, Darren Helm, Andrew Cogliano, and Logan O'Connor. You know what I mean? So right. Like a different coach that maybe didn't have a progressive all mindset would just be so kind of like boxed into like the the traditional roles of like this is these are our defensive guys. And so when McDavid's out there, we're going to get like Rick Bonas would be all over that. Like he'd be he'd be getting them out there as much as he possibly could.

A lot of Jack Johnson against Connery David. You want to be deservedly careful managing McDavid, but you don't want to be like playing worse players just for the sake of playing. Let's talk about Taves McCar versus McDavid really quick. by the way, because I know you've got a blues thing you want to talk about, but just really quickly, and then we can come back and dwell on this more. But what a luxury you've got maybe the only defense court that I feel might be able to keep up with McDavid, might. Yeah. Maybe, potentially. That's a huge luxury for the abs in the series. And that's the other thing that they can't hesitate on. Like, you can't worry about Manson or like those guys have to play an outrageous

minutes burden in this series they have to be on whenever mac david is yeah well i think they will i think they i think that yeah that that has shown they're not worried about it yeah no um i do want to talk about leon drois saddle here obviously because he's going to be a bit of a footnote just because of what mac david's doing yeah like it's it's it's very tough just stylistically like mac david is just such a supernova that regardless of anything else like he's he has the numbers to back it up but just like watching them that's where you gravitate towards right but dros idle had 15 assists in these five games, 17 points. On one leg. He's up to 26 points tied with McDavid now.

I think what's so fascinating to me about him is, yes, on one leg, like, he's clearly basically functioning on one wheel right now because that ankle injury. And so at the start of this postseason, you were alluding to this, the first five games, he was struggling a lot where they were like just trying to have him center his own line and do usual Leandro Seidel stuff, and he clearly physically couldn't handle it. And game six, they adjusted by being like, all right, like, we're going to lean on our depth a bit more here. We're just going to try to make life easier for Josito, playing with McDavid, less of the heavy lifting for him, but maybe maximize his offensive potential, right?

And since then, you know, the numbers have taken off. They're up 16 to 5 in like 104 minutes or something. There's six and one in terms of their win-loss record. Yes. So it's worked out. You know, for me, I'm no doctor by any means. I do have a Bachelor of Science in Kinesiology. So I know a little bit about the human body, but obviously this is just very like rudimentary stuff. But I would say you see that it's hampering him the most like when he's trying to shoot, especially that patented one timer of his right circle. And it makes sense, right? Like when you watch him when he's at his best, like there's so much lower body torque where he's like trying to like move his body quickly to. And especially him. Because he has the most deceptive

release point I've ever seen probably. Honestly, I mean, his particular skill is that you don't understand when the shot's coming. You know what I mean? Like I just, I've seen. no way if you're a goaltender to predict when or how or at what angle dry sidle is going to shoot from because it feels like he can you know you know he like uh you know how there was never a bad pass to randy moss right there's never a bad pass to leon dry sidle for a one timer like he can you know hit it off his heel he can hit it off in in so many his wheelhouse is just gigantic and he can do that at stride he can do that with his wrist shot i mean but yeah you're right I don't think we have a dry cycle with the full battery of tricks at the moment.

And it doesn't matter he's finding other ways to be. Well, here's why I brought that up. Against the flames, he attempted nine five-on-five shots for the entire series. He's taken 25 for the playoffs at five-on-five, which is tied to Kyler Yamamoto on the team for 11th most. Right. He's taken less than like Duncan Keith. Yeah. And he's never been like a crazy volume shooter because he's like, he's literally converting on 20 percentage of.

20% of his shots. So, like, he's an efficient volume shooter. But it's clear that he's had to change the way he's playing because that's bothering him. So he's become much more of a distributor. And that's what's so remarkable to me that, like, a great player can find different ways to beat you. But, like, he's been forced to, he's basically putting on, like, a Yarmur-Yager clinic of, he gets a defender on his back. Yeah.

He goes, like, behind the net. He's just holding them off and shielding the puck. And then, like, darnel nurse comes streaking down or something, and he hits him for a one-timer and he score. And it's like, he doesn't need the mobility. at this point because he's almost, it's kind of like a Joe Thornton thing in his prime, right? For the last couple years in the Sharks, when he was still really good, where he's almost bringing the pace of the game down to his preferred pace. So everyone else can be skating fast around him, but he's the one with the puck.

And ultimately, it only matters, like, what he does next with it because no one else can get it from him. Yeah. Well, one really quick thing, if you talk to some of the guys who've been around that team in recent years, like one thing that I think, you know, is under a, appreciated about Drysidal in general. Beyond the fact that he's one of the game's best players and is so frequently overshadowed because of McDavid. Yeah.

You know, not unlike what happened with Malkin and Crosby. Right. I mean, he's not the first guy to be in this position. But what I think his evolution into an absolute blue chip, Apex Predator offensive player in this league gave Edmonton was it gave McDavid a peer. And from what I understand,

the level of competition between those two is like absolute. through the roof, right? Like even in terms of off-ice workouts or like training sessions when you come in for reporting day, like apparently they hate to lose to each other. And, and so, you know, I think the public got a little glimpse of this early in the season when McDavid spent all this time working on his one-timer in the summer. And it was just like, you know, why? Well, it was something dry-siddle was materially better than me at. And they sort of were joking about it. But it's like, you don't do that if you don't want to beat a guy. And you don't want to beat a guy and also maintain that relationship if there's not, you know, that deep level of like enjoyment in

playing with one another. And I think when you have two guys that good who push each other that much and who work that hard, it starts to create the type of environment that you had in Pittsburgh where everyone levels up that you had in Vancouver with the Cedine twins who were famously competitive with one another where all of a sudden it's like, oh, there's this third line winger. He's now Alex Burroughs, right? Or, you know, in Edmonton, we have this defender. We're not sure if he's ever going to figure it out, it's darnel nurse. Right. Everyone just seems to become the best possible version of themselves.

And you look up and down that lineup and see guys who are like, you know, even Jesse Poole-Yarvie, who I know hasn't played a ton in this series. But, I mean, that guy was bus territory 18 months ago. Yeah. And now at the very least is a super effective two-way winger. And I think considerably better than that. Well, don't tell us on members of the local media, though. Well, I tell the local, I tell them all the time on Twitter.

Jim Mathison is one of my favorites. scene. But, you know, you look up and down that lineup, all those guys who've leveled up, like, I know we're not used to assigning credit to Dreysidal for what Kyler Yamamoto does or Jesse Pooley-R-V or Darnel Nurse. But I don't think you can divorce what those two have done to change, I hate to use the word culture or something, but to change the vibe around what the oilers are as a team in an organization.

Yeah. I would say also just getting more good players as how. helped in that regard. Well, they don't have, especially, especially because aside from, I mean, I'm not a big Keith guy. Yes. But I, but I'm, but I've always been a bit of a C.C. truther. And so I'm glad to see.

He's been really good. Anyone's, and I've made more fun of Cody C.C. And I think deservedly so in the past than anyone. Yeah. If you're still making fun of them, it's, you're just not watching these games. You're not watching these games. No. Like he's a zero with a puck.

He's not going to give you anything with that. But defensively, he's good. Like, like, um, retro penguins. Ron Haynesy? Yeah. Like, 2016 Ron Hainesie vibes off of CC right now. This team's number one defenseman. Like literally in terms of usage in terms of 515, short-handed.

And he's doing well enough in those minutes. He's playing like half of those minutes with McDavid because McDavid's always on the ice. So that helps. But he's doing his job. And very well. Yes. I mean, if they had another Cody Cici, I'd feel better against them or I feel better about them against the apps.

But with the exception of Archibald, Keith. Yeah. Like you look up and down the lineup. and at the very least. I mean, what did God send Ryan McLeod's been? I know you like him, but like, man, watching him play. I've been a big McLeod truth. You know what?

He does. I'm not sure if the scoring's ever going to come. I'm not going to rule it out because he's 22 years old. And like he was a point of game in the HL last year. Like, I think there's more to his game than this. But even if this is exactly what he is and just levels off of this, like this is such a valuable player for them because he just plays really fast. So he doesn't have to like super dumb the game down when he's out there.

An elite transition player who's good defensively, like when you have McDavid and Dreisidal, this is exactly what you need. You just need four guys like that. Yes. You know, again, that's the, that's the Penguins model. Like, Bluger, Aston Reis.

I mean, some of those guys are better than that, but it's like, you know, if you have four guys like that and three elite pieces, you're a very, very good team. And the Oilers for so long have had like six guys who are sub-average or, you know, something like that. And right now it feels like they have one defender, one defender that I really worry about and one forward

that, well, sorry, I'm going to go with two because I don't really buy Bouchard as a defensive piece yet. And Archibald, but aside from that, I kind of am okay with everyone on the team. Like, I think they're at least useful or players who I think could do even more in expanded roles, guys like Pooley-R-V and Yamamoto and McLeod, to be honest with you. And once you get into that sort of level of depth, you're pretty good. Now, I do think there's one other thing, though, worth noting, which is that, you know, we have to, like, banners fly forever.

And the Edmonton Oilers are now eight games away from winning a Stanley Cup final. You can do everything right, right? Like, think about the AFS. You can do everything right for three years and build a model team. Yeah. And this is the first time they've gotten here, right? Or you can do it like the Oilers, where you've done almost everything wrong for lots of years and still get there. Yeah.

But the point is, is what they've accomplished already is meaningful, right? But there was a scenario. There was a world where if they bought out Koskinin last off season, they could have had $30 million in cap space for this summer. Instead, they ended up with about 25. They bought out Neal, but not Koskenen. And, you know, with that money, Ryan Nugent Hopkins, right? They bring in Zach Hyman, who's been tremendous for them this season.

But storm clouds are on the horizon for that contract without question, especially for a player who, as good as he's been in this playoffs, Toronto replaced for 800K. He has been really good. He's been really good, but I mean, he was a replaceable piece at the end of the day for another team. And he's got, what, six years left after this?

Like, there's going to come a time where he's a net negative for this club, period. The Duncan Keith deal, which I give them a bit of a break on because I look at the low salary and suspect that there's an ownership level of reluctance to let them spend all of that cap space. Cody Cici, who's been really good,

but again, I think there was a chance here this past off season for the Oilers to open a lasting contention window. And instead, I feel like they've got some HAB's vibes on their team this season. They successfully completed moves that improved them in the short term. They have Connor McDavid and Leandro Seidel. No, I know. I'm not saying they're going to. Yeah.

They're not going to win the draft lottery. But the HABs were the only team with buying power in the summer of 2020 in a historic buyer's market. And signed what? One good deal? like one deal aged well, which was the Tofoli deal. Yeah. I mean, you know, they were the only team with both cap space and money and they were using it on Jake Allen and Edmondson.

And it's like, you know, great. They had playoff success. Kudos. But Tom, you're killing the vibes here, man. I'm just saying. That should have been a window. That should have been an offseason to set them up for decades of, for a half decade of success. Yeah.

And they instead make the cup final, but kind of blew it. And I still feel that way about the Oilers 2021 off season, even though in the short term, clearly, the moves have paid off to make them pretty formidable. Yeah. Yeah. No, listen, I, I, I agree with you. I don't, I don't think we need to be, like, chest thumping about how Ken Holland is actually a mastermind architect because they're making Western Conference finals here.

Right. But, well, we just, we have to, we have to keep, I think, both things in mind. The short term matters, but the opportunity cost is still through the roof for Edmonton, you know, at a higher ebb than it is for, in my view, the other teams still a, live. Yeah. I think that's about everything I have on the oil. I guess the only the last oilers point that I had was I know they have a bit of a like a high shooting percentage right now just because they're scoring so many goals. And normally you'd be like poo-pooing that and be like, well, there's no way this continues. And certainly over the course of a short playoff series,

anything can happen. Like we saw last year against the Jets, like they had like a 6% on a shooting percentage of McDavid on the ice. Like, I don't think. We're not betting against Connor McDavid's shooting percentage, regressing dramatically against Darcy Kemper. Is that what you're telling me? Oh, what I'm saying is anything can happen. But I, what I,

anything can happen. No, it can't. What I am saying, what I am saying here, though, is, like, if you look at the actual context of how they're coming across their offense. Yeah. Like, everything is flowing through McDavid and Drey Seidel. Like, I've been tracking these games.

McDavid is 71, five-on-five shot assists this. season or this postseason, Drsettel is 46 and no one else on the team has 20. So like, so they're getting a lot of high danger chances, right? Like I think McDavid, Hyman, and the Vanderkane are literally one, two, three in terms of high danger chances according to natural statutes right now. And like every other shot is basically being set up by two of the best,

whatever, how many players you want to name that can actually probably drive. Drive percentage, yeah. At least increase the baseline level of expectation that that shot's going to go in because they're the one passing. I mean, I think McDavid and Dreisdell can drive percentages. And if someone's debating that, like, I think they're too absolutists. That's my personal view.

I agree. And so they're scoring a lot of goals right now, and that's a good formula. So, you know, they're going to need to keep scoring a lot of goals because I think the avalanche are going to score a lot of goals in this series as well. And I guess maybe this is a good segue for us to talk more about the abs now here and kind of bring this all together. The a abs and your St. Louis Blues. My St. Louis Blues, I was way higher on them than me.

And I had respect for them. I thought the discourse around them was just so missing, missing the point. I just didn't see them as elite. I just saw them as like the, I saw them as the best version of what I called the like Rangers, Predators, you know, sort of tier of contenders, blues are in there too. Yeah. Where, you know, you may not have a championship five on five gear, but you have so much depth, so much solidity, excellent special teams, and you have the experience where you've done it

before. So, I mean, I just saw them as sort of the best version of that team. Not quite a contender, but, you know, certainly a handful. I just thought Minnesota was better. I was wrong. And I definitely expected them to get dusted by the abs, which I wasn't, I mean, I think that. They got dominated at 515. That did happen. Yeah. But they gave the abs more trouble than I thought. Certainly. Yeah, I agree. I mean, they put up a pretty good fight there. I, it just bugged me, like, sometimes the analysis that I see online could be, like, so. just missing the actual plot, right? Like, it's like, look at their expected goal totals.

They're 24th by C4 or whatever. I joke a couple of podcasts ago, like, you know, you either die a hero, you live long enough to see yourself become like an eye test truther. But like anyone smart that you would talk to that's actually watching this stuff or has like a behind the scenes peek at like some other numbers. It's like, yeah, they're one of the handful of best passing teams in the league.

like they're creating insane scoring chances because they're not taking point shots, they're trying to get like three passes across the ice before they shoot. Yeah. And if you do that, your volume is going to be low. And if you're using that to guide your model,

it's probably going to say this team sucks. But they were actually scoring a lot for a reason. Yeah. And that was my only argument. I didn't think they were a great team or anything. You see a few teams like this every now and then that are legitimately more efficient in the way that they move the puck as a team.

Two sort of relatively reasonable, recent examples come to mind for me, but the Winnipeg Jets in their sort of most recent contention window, you know, before Blake Wheeler sort of really fell off, that was a team that, like the Blues, was just able to pound high danger areas. Like, their down low passing was just materially better than everyone else. And so even though the underlying numbers weren't super high on them, or like, didn't consider them to be elite, I always thought they were that next the level, that next tier of dangerous opponent because of the way they did that. And I'd say the sharks were pretty consistently a team that profiled like that under, in Joe Thornton's

sort of lengthy, the tail end of his lengthy prize. And, you know, all of that said, all that said, the one part where I agree with the non-eye testers, right? And I still remember this, I still remember this, when Corey Schneider first published his all three zones data, like back in the day when they did every game and he had that army of volunteers, right? And I remember he first published that data and I was just looking through it intuitively trying to sort of figure out and I was like, okay, the San Jose sharks are the most efficient team at entering and exiting. Like in terms of the way that the sharks transition with control, like they do all the things

that we think matter in terms of driving possession. And yet that was one of their like down years, five on five. That wasn't one of their like 56%. I was like, okay, well, what's going on here trying to figure it out? and I remember the number that I saw that meant the most to me by like a fair bit was not how efficient a team was at controlling it. It was what was your raw total of entries attempted? And like number one was the Chicago Blackhawks. That was the year they won the Cups like 2015.

Number two was the Detroit Red Wings. Now I sort of took that to be like, oh, I think Mike Babcock's a great coach. Probably was wrong there. Teagues that have not aged well. Yeah. But I think there's, I still think there's a lesson there. which is that, you know, volume matters a ton, but, you know, always in hockey, it's like in a counterintuitive way.

And it's the ability to have the puck is almost more important than the efficiency thing. And at the end of the day, a team like the Blues, I just don't think had a high enough caliber five on five all told, particularly because don't really trust their defense. And I think Ryan O'Reilly's sort of, you know, still an unbelievable player, but losing a click or two off his fastball. Yeah. And it did sort of leave them for me, like, in a lower rung. That said, if it was blues, oilers, I think I'd be picking the blues to at least hold

their own in that series. Yeah, I mean, losing to the abs in six, there's certainly no shame in that result. And I think they squeezed everything they cut out of that. Like, for Colorado, on the one hand, I love watching them play. I love talking about them. At the same time, for the purpose of this podcast, at this point, there aren't too many novel concepts that I can bring up. Spotlight, yeah.

Because they just have a lot of good players and they play hockey well. And that's like, yes, of course. But that's what it comes down to. You know what I mean? Like, I watch them in transition. I think that's their bread and butter still. Like they can beat you down low, grinding it out. They certainly have the personnel with the size and everything in the offensive zone

to like muck it up and win an ugly game. game. But like the reason why they're still the best is they have this gear that they can hit in a more sustainable manner than like the Florida Panthers who we're going to talk about later can because they just keep like it just it almost builds upon itself right. And as the as the game goes along, you become more tired like your legs become heavier. You're trying to get off the ice quickly for changes and they're just so ruthless about how they attack you in transition over and over again. They almost don't have like an off gear. You know what I mean? Like they're not like if they go up seven one or something, I'm sure they're going to tone it down a little bit.

But like if the game is in doubt, like they're approaching every shift regardless of who's on the ice for them the same way. You know what I mean? Like they get like Nicolas Obikubel out there and like he's trying to do stuff that Nathan McKinnon is trying to do. Right? Like he doesn't obviously have the skill over like the faculties to pull that off. But he's been a great fit.

But like they're constantly going that way. And I do appreciate that so much because it would be so easy to kind of overthink it. be like, all right, no, we need to, once we go up, we need to really just kind of slow it down here and lock it down. And like, they unabashedly just go for it. And I do love that about them. There was an era of Denver Nuggets basketball with Ty Losson running the point before Ty Losson sort of became like an out of shape guy, where they were the fastest team in basketball and they'd just be like fast-breaking opponents at elevation. And it was so fun to watch because no one else could catch their breath. And the Nuggets were just playing so quickly. And it makes

sense. Like if you have a team that can skate your opponents off the ice and then you get to do it at elevation, uh, that's a tidy recipe. The abs are so much fun right now. And, and I think, you know, up and down the lineup, you know, I think about Manson, right, who I didn't love that acquisition personally, but the thing I liked about it was that at least it only cost a third. I, there was a good prospect involved too, but, um, the acquisition price for Manson versus, say, Ben Chirot, right? Yes. And in both cases, I thought, yes, the team's paying for reputation. But if you're going to pay for reputation, pay a modest amount. Yeah. Well, yeah, I agree with that. At least like Josh Manson still had, like, if you looked at it, like, you're still pretty good at

defending the rush and stuff like that. Yeah. Or like stuff that Ben Chirot's like never has this reputation for doing, but has just never been. The Ben Chirot counters, like the Ben Chirot supporters are like, do you watch him play live regularly? Do you see him come? commit infractions that don't get called come in postseason. I was like, man, but the bench rod thing, the bench rod discourse is always amazing. But at least they got Manson at a relatively decent price. And I think Lekinen too, like, I don't know that there's been a better, I was thinking about it the other day.

And, you know, one team I loved, like the team I was most praising after the deadline was the Rangers because I liked that they brought in a lot of material improvements at relatively low. Like, the Toronto was cheap. Yeah. Cop was way cheap. than I expected a player. Especially for what he's given them, yeah.

Especially for what he's given, but also for a player of that caliber with that sort of like, playoff tested grit, I thought he'd go for a higher price. And then they got one more for it, Mott. Even Bronzman pretty easy, considering just like not having to play Patrick Nammeth, for example, it's a big win. Big win. But you, and you throw a bunch of acquisitions and all you're using is mid-round picks, right? They hugged their prospects.

They kept their guys who were close. It's not like they lost a Braden Schneider or even a Zach Jones or whatever. I thought that was really good work. But I think at this point in the playoffs, the guy who I think has been the best fit, the smartest acquisition all told is like, I honestly, I'm just watching this guy. He fits exactly what they want. He's such a high work rate guy. And the fact that he's an RFA and that they're going to be able to find ways.

If they get priced out of Natchewski in UFA, then it'll be a very like natural fit to just give him his money. If I mean, they're they're priced out of a lot of guys in UFA. Yes. Does Kemper hold up? That's the big question. No, that's such a boring topic. Any goal other than Vasilevsky, it would be like, maybe? I don't know.

Fair idea. I don't know. Talking about goalies for me is like. Anchester. Yes. Yeah. I'll give you a, okay, let's keep talking about that. I'll transition here for a second.

I'll give you some stats. Okay. Macar, Taves, and Byram have combined for nearly 300 five-on-five zone exit attempts this postseason. Okay. What percent do you think they're exiting cleanly with possession? 78. dude that no okay there's 64 which is a lot like anything over than 50 is pretty good no i know i sorry you were presenting it in a way where i was like okay yeah maybe it's not it's not

comically high but macar 75 times on 104 tries so like 75% basically yeah um just preposterous i mean those are so those are card i wasn't completely off no no you're i mean yeah 78 okay well let's lower expectations you're okay okay excuse me i you're throwing i thought you were throwing something outrageous. I'll give you two things to watch when you watch them play. Well, more, listen, it's not for you. Yeah. You have to get the puck deep against them.

Yeah, you have to forecheck them. You actually have, like, pucks in deep. For sure. Is a cliche. Yeah. So many teams lob the puck through the neutral zone thinking it's going to go deep. And then Taves, gloves it down to a stick and immediately makes a pinpoint pass up the ice. And you may as well not have exited your zone because you're having to come right back in.

Yeah. And watching teams make this same mistake. I understand you're tired. You're just trying to flip the puck up. Like you have to literally make it hit the backboards behind their net and make them go retrieve it because otherwise it will be back in your zone before you can even move. I like too how aggressive Makara is at skating at guys who are still changing directions. I've never really seen anything like it. But if a puck, if a puck nears him and he gets it,

he skates right at guys who are like still figuring out that possession is changing and at a million miles per hour they generate so much off of macar being a one man counterattack from the back end um it's a pretty unique skill set i've never really seen a guy do it as like a characteristic thing they always do the way that he does he always does it um so yeah they have a lot of players that can hurt you that way and i actually kind of think they're vulnerable against the forecheck uh see i i i i I really don't think they are because of this. Like maybe a team like the hurricanes can get them a bit of trouble just because I thought Calgary could have.

I thought Calgary could have. Yeah, maybe. Although after out of the series, I just saw maybe they can't. They couldn't even pressure the oilers defensemen. But I think a lot of teams go into it with the mindset of, all right, we need to forecheck them. So we're going to take the middle of the ice.

The thing is no team uses the boards more effectively than their defensemen do. but not in terms of like getting it off the glass and out like literally making passes you like diagonal passes off the boards that go right to yeah forwards stick and so it's really tough because if you just shade over it to the middle of the ice they'll gladly just beat you that way and then all of a sudden you started to kind of compensate for that and then like all right yeah my car will just skate right down the middle of the ice then it's like it's a really tough situation to be and i i understand like it's a tough bargain last year was a bit easier because like sam gerard was a bit

vulnerable because he could hear the footsteps and he was making some mistakes. I didn't like Ryan Graves. They were playing Patrick Nemeth. This year, like, yeah, obviously they're going to be, they're using Jack Johnson. It's not ideal. But Byram's emergence, I think Byram is such a game changer for them here because he's been so good so far this postseason. And if he can keep doing this, like it gives them a third elite puck mover and especially a second guy on a different pair to do the heavy lifting for a second pair. Yeah. That it becomes a lot more difficult to just key in on it. Do you think he handles pressure well enough? I think he has so far.

He has so far. Yeah. Well, and I think he'll be able to against Edmond. But Caroline is a different monster in that regard. Tampa Bay is not, though. So that's sort of an interesting thing. I have a theory about some of what you've discussed that I want to talk about when we transition to the Florida series. So I'll save it.

I'll give you one more Byram thing then before we move on. Okay. Because I've been, I mean, obviously it's highly encouraging just literally to see him playing hockey. And looking healthy. Like, that's awesome. So smart man. He's such a smart player. It's a ton of fun to watch.

But the fact that he's also been doing well is obviously a nice, nice addition for the abs here. You know, when Gerard got hurt, I was really curious to see what they were going to do because obviously the natural thing is like, all right, yeah, I'm just going to get more minutes. But sometimes, you know, maybe they wanted to ease him in a little bit. Maybe they just want to just fully put him in the Sam-Jarard role. Right. But since that injury happened, like the final couple games of that series, he was the third

most used defenseman behind Taves and McCar. And they were even sprinkling in these shifts where occasionally. they would get him out on the ice with McCar in like offensive settings and they obliterated the blues in those minutes I mean I firmly believe sometimes that you need to just be like we don't have a top four the idea of a top four makes sense to everybody because it's like our first and second pair yes but sometimes you have a top three right you know sometimes you have a top three and you have three other guys and in their case you have you know the two Johnsons and um excuse me I'm spacing on the manson and Manson yep

And so if you're leading, right? If you're leading, all of a sudden you want Manson in those minutes helping you kill it. And if you're trailing, probably Eric Johnson's your guy. And, you know, when you have to, Jack Johnson. But, you know, I think so you can build a top three and ride those guys. I really believe that you have to be tactically flexible enough to be like, okay, we're going to build a fourth defenseman for our top four in the aggregate based on the

skill set we have available of our other three guys and these three are fixtures. And I thought you saw them lean into that in a big way with Gerard out. 25 on five minutes, McCarren and Byron. Obviously, like very 78% zone exit. Very, very, very, uh, tilted, carefully curated minutes. Shots for 21 to 4 for the abs. Decent. Goals were 3-0. High danger chances were 8 to 1. Just someone to watch. I mean, I don't, I still like having McCarren Taves on the ice. They play so well off of each other. But you're right. It is such a nice wrinkle to be able to just like occasionally mix it up and you just have Taves out there with Manson, for example, if you want like a bit of heavier formation. And then you just have McCarr and Byron and Byronaut there for an offensive

zone shift. And it's like, that's a pretty tough thing to kind of try to wrangle when they can throw that many different looks at you. Yeah. No, it's, uh, I mean, the abs are. The abs are the best team. Okay. At the end of the day, the abs are the highest quality team remaining. That doesn't mean they're going to win it because the NHL is so cruel. But there, there's no question in my mind that even when you look at, you know, the battle tested, Tampa Bay Lightning, like the aves are a different animal entirely than anyone else in this playoff. That's been true all along. And now they're eight wins away and with an opponent that they should be materially better than.

It's going to be fascinating to see if they can finally get it done. People around the league that have other vested interests, aka either work for other teams or cheer for other teams or cover other teams. or cover other teams, seem oddly resentful of the Colorado Avalanche. And we'll jump through all sorts of logistical hoops to try to discredit the team they put together. It's so bizarre to me. I may be talking to different people.

Really? Yeah. I see a lot of people who are just like, no one can hit their fastball. Like, hey, they're not quite as good this year. No, no, not that they're not good. Yeah. I'm saying discredit, like, the process that they went through to put this team. together in terms of like valuing them as a smart organization.

Right. And being like, oh, they just got lucky a couple times. Oh, I know. Oh, Lou couldn't afford to volunteer. So they just stole them. It's like, all right. Yeah. They had the cap space and they had multiple second round picks.

Why? And they were aggressive. They were aggressive. And everyone, yeah, exactly. Like they get credit for winning those opportunities. You will get lucky every off season in this league if you're in a position of benefit. Well, it's, it's funny that, it's funny that anyone would ever do that while also giving like, you know, a ton of credit.

it to like a Jim Benning for the J.T. Miller trade, as if that's not the exact same thing. You know, and who misses their player, the player they lost more? The Lightning and J.T. Miller or the Islanders and Devontex? Come on. Oh, the Lightning have completely crumbles since losing J.T. Miller. They're in shambles. Right. All right. Last prediction. I think Miko Randinen scores a lot of goals in the series. He's so due. He only has one empty net goals so far. It's wild. And he's like, it's not, like, he's not playing at his absolute.

absolute best, but he's been involved enough where, like, you would think he'd score three to four just based on being Miko Ranton and being in those spots, and I think he's going to go off in the series. I would love that for this reason. If you ask people how many top 10 players are in this series, right? They'll say four. Everyone will say four without hesitation, right? McCarer, McKinnon, McDavid, Drysaitle.

Yeah. But if Miko Rantan doesn't belong in that conversation, he's not far off. Like, he's definitely on the fringes of that conversation. Yeah. Mika Ranton is one of the most unique players in this league. He is completely elite. I have never seen a six foot five forward stick handle with his, with his, like, hands as far out front of his body as Mika Ranton does. Which gives him this playmaking ability.

Yeah. And this and this puck protection ability that honestly, I mean, I think he's, I think he's probably, I think he's probably a top three winger in this game. and I don't know that he's gotten enough credit. And if he gets to have a coming out series against this competition, if he stands out amidst this superstar series, I think that would be great because people will finally begin to be like, oh, wow, that player is ludicrous. I think he will.

I think he's going to score some goals. Okay. Champions aren't born. They're made. And the secret to make your business reign supreme, Shopify, the all-in-one commerce platform to start, run, and grow your business. Forget the off-season work. Shopify makes it simple to sell to anyone from anywhere. Whether you're selling warm-ups or wall hangers, it's time to start selling with Shopify and join the platform simplifying commerce for millions of businesses worldwide. With Shopify, you'll customize your online store to your brand, discover new customers, and build the relationships that create die-hard fans. Shopify fields all the sales channels to grow a winning business from an in-person PO. West system to an all-in-one e-commerce platform, even across social media platforms like TikTok,

Facebook, and Instagram. Shopify is a secret to becoming a business champion by making it simple for anyone to sell their products anywhere, taking the guest work out of selling. When you're ready to take your winning idea to the world, team up with Shopify, the commerce platform powering millions of businesses down the street and around the globe. Sign up for a free trial at Shopify.com slash bluewire, all lowercase. Go to Shopify.com slash bluewire to start selling online today. Shopify.com slash bluewire. Recognized employees with custom ink.

Show customer appreciation with custom ink. Outfit your teams with custom ink. Easily add your logo to your favorite products and brands at custom ink.com. Make custom ink your custom gear partner with great customer service, quality products, and all in pricing, along with personalized help when you need it, and an easy-to-use website when you don't. All backed by a 100% satisfaction guarantee. Do it all today at customink.com.

Lightning Panthers. Yeah, let's do this series. I'll start us off. I have to admit, I find the fact that the lightning swept the Panthers without Braden Point taking a single shift in the series, still staggering to me. Not because I thought that they couldn't win the series, but for me, watching the lightning down the stretch

and then for large parts of that Leap series, I didn't want to count them out, but to me it didn't look like a team that still had like gas left in the tank. Like it looked like they had like run on absolute empty. They'd used everything they possibly had available to them, and they were still going to put up a good fight, but like they might just be like a like one gear behind a team that was as fast as the Leafs were

just if they couldn't like crowd them. I thought materially they were not going to be fast enough to win their division. Like genuinely I was wrong. But I thought losing Coleman, losing Gord and then this past year losing Joseph, you know, subbing in the guys they subbed in, Hegel, you know, Nick Paul. like a Perry on and on, a Belmar. I just, I didn't know that they'd have enough forward push.

And they've made it work. Now, the one tweet that I was getting dunked on where I was like, I'm not sure if they're fast enough, that was sent in like January. And it's like they changed their team. Like they changed their bottom six. It's like specifically being like, not sure if their bottom six is fast enough. They changed their bottom six. And people are like, good call.

It's like, hey, come on. They made some trades. But I did think that. I genuinely did think that they didn't have the speed to hang with the leave. to hang with the Panthers. And here's sort of how, really quickly, right? Super passive forecheck. They played a one-three-one in both of those series with a ton of discipline.

And it's a modified one because they drop their defender really far back. They are not, the base of that one-three-one is closer to their goaltender than you typically find. So it's not really a neutral zone trap. it's we've got three guys squeezing you on the blue lines so good luck entering with control and also don't dump it in because we've got a six foot five guy back there and whether headman's on the ice or not it's either headman or its foot or it's um mcdona yeah right we've got a huge guy back there who's going to be first back because we're playing him deeper than then you know is convenient for you and so i felt like the leafs really struggled it's ironic to say this because

I felt like the Leafs really struggled against that more early in the series. And I felt like they did a better job of it late in the series. It's just that they lost both of those games, six and seven. But game five, I thought it mattered. I thought it was material. The Panthers had no way of figuring it out. And they also struggled against a pretty similar setup that they Washington Capitals threw at them a series earlier.

And they just could not find a way to attack as a five-man unit against either opponent. At no point in this playoffs, did we see the Panthers play the sort of hockey. they were able to in the regular season. Well, yeah, the difference of that series, I actually went back and rewatched it for a third time because I was like, I really want to see the difference here. Yeah.

And like, they weren't attacking off the rush against the caps, but they would get the puck deep and then the capitals just couldn't break it out. So they were just compensating for all that rush they were missing with just like a four check. They were just creating like rush-like chances where like the caps would be out of position defensively, right?

Yeah. And that's why every one of those games of that series went along. By the third period, the Panthers started looking much better because it was just an accumulation of that. Whereas the lightning might not have even been exiting the zone cleanly, but their defensemen were so much better at like strategically placing the puck into the neutral zone so that at least they could not give the cats those.

They were happy to play some punt and hunt. They didn't need to possess the puck. And I just the way, here's the biggest problem is I think the way you have to adjust to playing against the lightning's particular variation of the one through one is you have to almost go for. home run passes, you almost have to break out at five on five the way you would on the power play. Like you need to gain the line and make a quick pass, but you've got three guys squeezing plus, you know, a really good defender back there. And if you turn it over, it's going the other way. And the abs aren't like a super fast team that punishes you. Sorry, sorry, the lightning aren't a

super fast team that punishes you necessarily against the grain a ton. But if they get the chance to, they go for it. They go for it. They go for it. And I don't know how you rely break them down as a skilled team without playing a pretty high risk style, like leaving yourself relatively exposed to those sorts of of counters. And for me anyway, just based on how I'd gauge the lightning speed, like, I think you have to live with that. And that's, I mean, that's a tough way to live if you're an opponent. I think, yeah, I get the vibe watching those games back that the Panthers, like, didn't do a

pre-scout of the Lightning. Like, it feels like they almost didn't watch the Leafs round one series because obviously they have different personnel. Or just watch their own first round series. No, no, no. But there's certain things the Leafs did strategically that the Panthers theoretically should have been able to emulate, at least in some capacity, right? Like, the Leafs created so many odd man rushes from pressuring high in the

defensive zone. Because if the Lightning do have one weakness, it's, you don't necessarily want Zach Bogosian. to be on his back foot handling a baubling puck at the blue line. Any of their defensemen really like, you know what I mean? Like even Victor Hedman, who is an amazing all-world defender. Yeah. He's an enormous individual.

And one of the negatives of that is when the puck gets in their skates, it can become like kind of clumsy for them to try to fish it out, even for Victor Hedman. That's his one weakness. If the puck is in front of him, even if you have it for a second, you won't have it for long because he will take it from you. And that's what's amazing to me with this lightning team. Like, if you play into their hands of like allowing them to lean on you like that physically, like you're going to lose.

And the Panthers seemed to be like, I don't know if they were unaware of that or but they just seemed unwilling to kind of compromise and try something different. And that's what mind blowing to me. Like I understand that they had such a successful regular season. But you're right. You would have thought based on how their round one went that they would have been kind of primed to be like, all right, we might have to change things up here a little bit. And they really just showed none of that.

In game four they did, and they started being much more aggressive, but by then it was too late and Vasilevsky just closed the door on them. Well, and so I'm a little torn here because to what extent can you, how dangerous is it to overreact to a four-game sweep in which one team say percentage is 980 plus and the others is sub-900, right? I mean, you have to be able to take that step back and say, okay, you know, there's a fair bit of this that is just that Vasilevsky dominated and we actually didn't play that badly. But the fact that it also happened to the prior series, the fact that there's the same issues that eliminated them in a sweep caused them to struggle far more than they should have against a Capp's team, I think does begin to pose some greater questions. One thing I'd note is, you know, after Lafair Quinnville in, you know, the winter, they kept Brunette, who did a phenomenal job.

But the rest of their coaching staff is, you know, guys who you, any of our listeners will remember playing, right? It's Old Samuelson, it's Derek McKenzie, it's Tomo Routu, from what I understand, and I know Derek McKenzie really well. As smart a guy as you'll find, really enjoyed working with them. but there's not a ton of experience on that coaching staff. And I wonder, you know, I don't know exactly what they're going to end up doing with Bruno. I know there's been some speculation. Bill Zito's been really consistent about saying that they'll figure it out after the season. But I wonder as they sort of review things internally and have those conversations,

whether or not they stick with Bruno, if the need to bring in just someone who's seen it all, someone who's been there, I think would help. I think it would have helped. in figuring out a pair of one-three-ones that they really struggled to match up with. Yeah, I mean, I think they would have lost anyways in the series. I just thought that, like, their game plan really didn't give them a fighting chance. Undeniable. I mean, obviously, they got swept, but, like, it's really, like,

Vasilisky is awesome, and he was remarkable in that final game for clincher as he is in, like, every close-out game in every series he plays. But their offensive approach to me just, like, was not good enough to really challenge them in a discernible way, right? was a lot of like the lightning being like yeah sure be on the outside here we're going to feel very comfortable that you're not going to break into the middle of the ice right and so they got a lot of shots but interestingly enough the lightning won they expect a goal battle they won the high danger chance battle and i don't think that was a fluke so yes vasilevsky being basilevsky made a difference

but i would i would be alarmed seeing the way they played and thinking that was that was good enough or oh we can just run this back in this same capacity and just hope for better goaltending results like I don't think that's what it was. No, I agree with you. I think there needs to be, you know, some type of change, but I'm actually, I normally hate this play, the high flip because I think teams abuse it. And then it's like you're basically just giving the puck away. But like the Leafs were doing it to such great effect because it was like a very tactical

high flip where they were like intentionally throwing it deep and allowing William Nealach and the lightning did it against the Panthers too. And the Panthers did it. Not at all. Zero. No. They attack as a five-man unit. Yeah.

They're like, we're going to pass the puck up the ice from point eight to point B. And it's like, that's not going to. it well and you talked about it with the with the caps series too like the caps didn't have they played a more classic one three one i think they were more vulnerable to the dump in and we just didn't see the panthers go to it enough considering how much havoc their forecheck was wrecking you know it's like they really wanted to do that five-man attacking thing that the panthers do and they just kind of couldn't against the caps or at least the way they were playing i felt like they didn't play the games in front of them. Yeah. You know, they kept trying to play their game. And then, and then I do think,

uh, going away from Uyghur, Echblad, particularly because I think Echblad was still feeling the effects of that, a severe injury that he's sustained in the second half. Yep. Um, you know, and playing Chirot-Eckblad, I think left them too slow on the back end. I think that was also an issue. Where do you have Anthony Sirelli on your Selke ballot this year? I. Top three. Yeah. Well, that's why you're smart man. It's on a, on a video cast on me right now. I mean, I don't think we're allowed to reveal this, but behind Patrice Bergeron. But I don't think I had him much lower than that. 153 5-153 5 minutes so far this postseason.

Yeah. How many goals against? Wait. 52 and a half minute or almost 53 minutes against Austin Matthews. 25 and a half minutes against Sasha Barkoff. Those were his top two most common opponents. Are those guys good? Good players.

Two goals against. That's all right. Obviously, headman was out on the eyes for a lot of that in round one. he was basically like it was a him in point against matthews especially at home uh another 40 short-handed minutes only three goals against in those as well i mean a big shorty like such a good player i i he's obviously never going to get the shiny deserves on this team just because of all the flash that's in front of them on the depth chart but like man that guy similar to hymen what we were talking about like the concept of like a motor that just never stops going yeah like have you

ever watched an Anthony Sorrelli shift where he kind of just like coasts and then does a lap and then goes off the I think he obviously has to play that way because otherwise he wouldn't be in the NHL like he doesn't have the raw skill to be doing like ridiculous skill moves and then if he doesn't have it go off the ice and come back and try it again like he has to play that way every time but like the fact the consistency of it is remarkable to me if he was another team's top line center would we talk about him like new NHL Mike pecker I say yes well RFA again next summer. $4.8 million cap hit right now.

They're never going to lose these guys. They're never going to lose these guys. They're always going to figure it out. How much money in real salary do you think he's making next year? Here's the thing. Who do they have? Do you have the page up right now? No, I have his contract details written down.

Okay. But because you've got, they bridged three guys. Yes. They bridge three guys in the summer of 2020. After the first cup. After the first cup win. Surnack? Yep.

Soirelli, I know Sorrelli was three. Yeah. And I know that Sergachev was three. Was Cernak two? I think Cernak was two. So he might be up after this year. I just, I just can't quite remember if he's two or three. I'll pull it up for you right now.

Yeah, please. I mean, this is great podcasting. Yeah, 100%. Well, I have a really good point that I actually want to make. No, no. Cernac and Cerelli and Sircichib are all up after next year. Okay, perfect. So the Aves do this thing where they bridge everybody.

Yeah. Right? And they, this dates back to Hedman and to Stamco. who both got the ads or the lightning. I keep missing it up. The lightning, the lightning bridge everybody, dating back to Stamco's and Hedman.

But they also do this thing where they extend the, the core guys who take less on a bridge deal, they get extensions a year out and on the day of, right? Point on the day of. Headman, on the day he was eligible. Yeah.

So that's sort of their deal, their deal with guys is, hey, we're going to hose you. you on your second contract, and then you will be taken care of on your third. Vasilevsky is the other guy. Kutrovs, the other guy. They did all of their guys in the exact same mode. So what's interesting is this is sort of the low end test, because ultimately all of the

Vasilevsky, headman, Stamcoast point tier got taken care of relatively similar numbers, right? 9-5-95. Stam-Cost is whatever he is. I think he's 95. Yeah. And then, sorry, the one guy is a little lower. headman's a little lower the defenseman headman's at seven eight seven five right so what level did their my guess is they're just going to set some level that they think is like fair for their

mid-tier guys and those will all get either announced on the day that they become eligible or they'll be dealt before it that's my that's my guess they're they to manage the cap like this to stagger your contracts like this to do what the lightning do best you you literally have to have like an understanding with your players about how it works, like a deal, a sacred deal between team and team and player that it functions in this way. And they've been so disciplined about sticking to it with all their core guys. And we're going to get this new test for it with these mid-tier guys, which is a little bit different. Like we've seen them do it, I guess, with Pilat, with Johnson. Colorn. But those numbers were like 4-7-5. And in the new NHL, those numbers are

going to be higher. To this point, we haven't seen a Tampa Bay Lightning player. just be like, nah, I want to go max out my income. They all seem to be happy to stay there. But that test is going to be fascinating. Hey, really quick, Lightning, Colorado, okay? You didn't answer my question about how much you think Sorrelli is making next year. Oh, he's an RFA with arbitration. No, no, so he's four, okay.

No, I mean, in terms of the contract he's on right now. Yeah. He's making 4.8 in terms of the cap. Yeah, you won't mean. What's his real salary, do you think? Seven. Seven. Yeah, seven.

That's a way to keep a guy happy. Well, and that's signed after the new grandfathered-in deal, right? So I'm not exactly sure what the QO will be, but it'll be a high QO. Yeah. And, yeah, I mean, that is a way to keep a guy happy. I think he's Pat Morris. He's represented by Newport. So they'd structure that deal right.

But, you know, he's going to have a high QO, too. So that's going to be a really tough guy to keep. That's going to be a tough guy to keep. Yeah, I don't, I don't. But they're going to do it. They're going to figure it out. They're the lightning. No, I was thinking...

They never lose good players like this. I was thinking like there's a lot. You know, we're saying about the abs, the model, how they built this team and kind of like how repicable it is, like what you can learn from it, right? With the lightning, it is a lot of stuff where like they've obviously done an immaculate job of keeping everyone. But like they've also done stuff that I just think like other organizations probably can't.

For sure. But I think there's a key lesson to the lightning though. The lightning, the key lesson to the lightning, because I actually think the Aves model is less replicable because the Aves model requires you to, you know, hit an absolute home run on a trade. It requires you to make mistakes. Like the Aves lesson is that, you know,

Josaki threw in his chips with Patrick Guas vision for the team. It failed spectacularly. And then he learned from that and completely reoriented. Like he was the greatest Hall of Fame level player who ever learned a new trick. And that new trick was, hey, why don't I, you know, prioritize things completely different from what I thought mattered as a player, right?

It was just a, that's the lesson there. The Lightning, though, what the Lightning did was just so unbelievably stubborn. That's the lesson from the Lightning. The Lightning felt like they had some things that worked. Yes. And then when they failed, repeated it. They didn't cave. And that includes multiple 3-1 leads in the conference final to the eventual

cup winner in which they lost three games in a row, right? That happened to them three times. they missed the playoffs in 2017. The year after Kutrov first got bridged. They got swept. Obviously, we all know that in 2018. That's part of the lore. And they never fired...

2019. And they never fired Cooper? No. How many teams can make the cup final in 16, miss the playoffs two years later, get swept after one of the greatest seasons of all time, and keep their job. Like they were so stubborn

about their approach. That's what teams need to take from the light. Well, but I also, the reason why I don't know what to do with them in terms of like a learning exercise is like they're the ultimate winner now, right? Like they're going for a three beat here. Yeah, they're one of the great teams of all time.

Before this, if they do it. Before this, they were getting laughed at as the team that couldn't get over the hump that kept losing in, you know, bad fashion in the postseason blowing leads, then getting swept after. historic regular season. And so now they're the ultimate winner.

But like to be a winner, you have to win. It's like this weird, weird cycle, you know what I mean? Where it's like all these tropes about like a winning mentality. Yeah. And like they clearly have it now because when I watch them, I usually roll my eyes at this stuff. But like seeing how poised they are in high leverage moments where like you don't see them panic.

You know what I mean? At all. Like they'll make like, yeah, they can go down or something. And then you like look at the bench and John Cooper is just like, has this kind of like slide grin on his face, his hands, his pockets. And you just, like, they know it's under control. And you can, you have the benefit of feeling that way after you've won two cups in a row. But that's like a tough spot to get to for anyone else.

It is. But I, but it's a good reminder too that today's soft playoff loser is tomorrow's winner. Is tomorrow's big winner. Especially when you think about like the last three cup winners are the lightning, the Washington Capitals and the St. Louis Blues. Yeah. And it's like those are also three. the most disappointing playoff teams the last decade,

with the exception of San Jose. So, you know, I think there's copious lessons to draw from that. If you're one of the many teams that fell short in the playoffs, if you're a Minnesota, if you're a Toronto, if you're,

honestly, Vegas. Like, Vegas missed the playoffs and they fired Pete DeBore, but, you know, how much should they deconstruct their approach? Like, probably not that much,

at least if the lightning model is, um, is your template. If you have the right people, if you believe in what you're doing, being stubborn within it. I think that's the key lesson from the Lightning. And it's really not a lesson so much for managers or coaches or for the level of people

that we usually point this advice toward when we talk about hockey. It's really a piece of advice for ownership. Yeah, it is. It's really a piece of, like the Lightning's success can't be separated from Jeff Binick. He's the best owner in hockey. And anyone who wants to replicate the Lightning, you know, that starts in the owner's suite. That starts with owners taking a look in the mirror and figuring out. exactly how they want to structure their own organizations and businesses.

Well, that's a tougher sell for any GM out there. Yeah, you're right. And maybe that's why we don't get talking. It's a lot easier to make a couple trades or fire your coach. And that's a good note to end on here. Tom, plug some stuff. What are you working on? Where can people check you out?

Oh, man, you can check out a ton of stuff from me at the athletic. Sportsnet 650. I do the Canucks hour every day. Sometimes it's at noon. Sometimes it's 11. But you can also get it on, you know, whatever podcatcher you prefer and I've also got the van cast at the athletic with Farhan-LLawghi. That's the most of it.

That's what I do. I love it, man. Keep up the great work. My only plug is please rate and review the podcast, wherever you listen to the show. Each of those is greatly appreciated. Thank you for listening. We will be back soon. I promise we didn't get to cover Rangers Hurricanes, obviously, because we're still waiting

to see how that series ends. But whoever plays the lightning in the conference final, we will get to that series then. So thanks for listening. Tom, thanks for coming on the show. and we'll be back soon. The Hockey P.D.Ocast with Dmitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockey pdiocast.