The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 441: Risk Tolerance

Episode Date: June 6, 2022

Dominic Moore joins the show to discuss the first three games of each Conference Final series. Topics include: Colorado's rush attack Edmonton's inability to slow them down How the Avalanche are defending McDavid How the Rangers got to this point The things New York is doing to give Tampa Bay trouble Whether the Lightning flipped the series in Game 3 Scouting goalie tendencies and shooting for them Trust level and how it influences risk tolerance Not getting too high or low after each game Making big lineup changes in the postseason Having a specific role and playing it If you haven't done so yet, please take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. Smash that 5-star button. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a little note about why you recommend people check the PDOcast out. Thanks for the help, each one is much appreciated! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

On a beautiful run through the park, on a pleasant day, you can easily get lost. No, no, no. She didn't kill him. Huh? In your true crime podcast. It was the pool guy. So obvious. Whatever motivates you works for us. It's all about letting your run be your run. And Brooks is here for every runner.

Doing the research and sweating the details to create gear that works for you. It's your run. Brooks, run happy. Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast. With your host, Dmitri Philip. Welcome to the Hockey PEOCast. My name is Dmitri Filipovich and joining me somehow for the first time in PDOCast history. It's my pal Dom McMor.

Dom, what's going on, man? Hey, Dimitri. Pleasure to finally get together like this. You know what? It is a long time coming. We've been trying to make it work this postseason so far. And I'm glad we finally got to make it happen here. We're going to record this.

Well, we are recording right now. It's Sunday evening. So we just watched game three of the Rangers Lightning. We're going to talk about both series. I'm typically pretty tentative about recording these podcasts in series because I find that, you know, I don't want to draw, you know, very conclusive stuff out of just one or two games here or there. And I can change very quickly over the course of a series. I guess, you know, you were relatively recently playing in the NHL postseason.

I'm very curious for your take on how you sort of balance that. that emotionally, because even for me as someone who has no vested interest whatsoever, I'm just watching these games hoping for the coolest stories and the best games that can happen. I watch one game and let's say, you know, the Rangers badly outplay the lightning. And I come away from that and it's like the most recent thing in my mind and I'm thinking, wow, like they've really stumbled upon something here. They've got, they've got them in the bag. They've got this.

And then, of course, as we know that there's wild momentum swings over the course of a playoff series, especially if you're switching locations between the two cities. And so as a player playing in this stuff, like, do you allow yourself to kind of think ahead like that? Or is it truly like the cliche of one game at a time? And you're sort of throwing out what happened recently and just focusing on the next one.

Yeah, I guess it's a great question. I think for me, I've recently retired. So I don't know if it'll change, but for now, once a player, always a player. So I'm always thinking about it from players' perspective and through the prism of my experience, it's just ingrained in me, right? So when I'm watching these games and I'm watching the Rangers, you know, coming back from 3-1 down in the first round, well, you know, I'm going through that

in the same way that I came back from 3-1 down with the Rangers in the first round. we went to the Stanley Cup finals. So everything gets filtered through that and it's hard not to do. Maybe, again, I don't know, I haven't been there yet. Maybe that'll change as I get older. But for now, everything's seen through that lens. Yeah, it really feels like, you know, compartmentalizing it must be such a skill, like just kind of treating the games, I guess, as isolated events and not getting too high or low.

Like I imagine that sort of that mental battle of it must be just as difficult. as anything else because certainly like especially if one game has a very extreme outcome or it really looks like one team is just thoroughly outplaying the other like it becomes kind of tough to distance yourself from that and realize that it really was just only one game out of seven. Yeah, just like, you know, I've been a part of four different teams that came back from three one down in a series. And so like when you go through those experiences, you kind of know what the mentality was

and the emotions that went along with that. And, you know, like, listen, I don't think anyone necessarily thought the Rangers would get this far. But for me, including me, but after the first round, when they came back from 3-1 down, I knew what that feeling is like. When you're, like, on the brink of elimination, and then you come back and take a series, you feel completely invincible. You're playing with nothing to lose at all because essentially you are already done. dead in the water. And so, you know, I changed my prediction after that to, to, because I just felt like

I'd been through it myself, lived it myself, and they're just flying high. You, you know, we don't know how long that'll, they'll be able to ride that train. But for now, they're, they're flying high. You can't, that's, that's, that's, you broke the first cardinals end of, of, of, of playoff, brackatology. You can't, you can't, you can't change your picks on the fly like that. You got, You got to make them before and stick with it. This is true, but I make my picks in advance, but ESPN has asked us to do it by round. So that's the only reason why I changed the pick because they asked.

All right. That's fair enough. Okay. Let's actually start with Aval and Joylers here. And we're going to bounce around some of the kind of main stuff that we've seen from the first three games. And then we'll shift over to Rangers Lightning to close it out. I'll start us off here with what I find to be kind of the stat that helps capture the biggest story of this series from my perspective.

So the Colorado Avalanche so far in these three games at 5-1-5 have tried to enter the zone against Oilers defense been 95 times. Of those 95 times, they've successfully carried it in with possession unopposed 67 times. So that's north of 70% of those of those attempts that there is to enter the last. zone. And, you know, for me, you can quibble certainly with a softy here there that got by Mike Smith and net. And you could say, okay, he should have had that one or oh, that's a break, backbreaker, especially the ultimate game winner in game three. But for the most part, for me, just seeing what Colorado skaters have been able to do off the rush to really outclass and just outskate Edmonton's defense and the sheer volume of threatening looks they've been able to

generate off those opportunities. For me, at the end of the day, like, it's just only a matter our time before they're going to break through. And we've sort of seen that over the course of these three games where they're just so good and so fast and they can beat you in so many different ways. And eventually that kind of adds up and becomes almost insurmountable in a way. It does. And it's obviously a very, very key stat and one that jumps off the page. You know, they were one of the best rush teams in the regular season, as we know.

And they've continued that in the postseason contrast that, interestingly to the Florida Panthers, who everyone knows how productive they were in the regular season off the rush. And that completely whittled away in the playoffs. And that comes out in the data if you look at it. You know, they were first or second on, you know, shot attempts off the rush, on man rush attempts and stuff like that in the regular season. And they were nowhere near that in the playoffs. Why? You know, a number of good questions. But when you, when you ask me why and how is Colorado continuing to do that, I, you know, you always think about the forwards when you think about rush attempts. And obviously, McKinnon is the guy that garners a lot of attention for how

electrifying he is. But I feel like, you know, and I was a forward, but I feel like great D make forwards look really good. And, you know, when you have, you. have D that can basically beat one for checker, draw another one to them, well, all that means is that there's less forecheckers and less defenders for the forwards to have to contend with. And I feel like that's one of Colorado's big strengths, not only getting out of their own zone, but through the neutral zone, they're able, because they're so dynamic from the back end, it just gives the forwards that much more room to work with. And obviously they've complemented those D with players

that can make something happen off of those opportunities. Well, and I think I think that's the key right there, that last sentence, making something happen off those opportunities because if you watch the first two rounds, I think, you know, especially the Kings, the Flames, it was an entirely different, you know, predicament and then that series got away from them pretty quickly.

But in round one, like, while the Kings were having success and they really had the Oilers on the ropes, they're going up three, two in that series, you could see the sort of, the skeleton of what could be a great rush attack. They were generating a lot of North-South opportunities and really moving the puck quickly, but whether it was because they didn't have the personnel and just kind of the finishing talent or because there's still kind of this young team that's still adapting to this new playing style that they have, they weren't really able to execute off that.

Whereas you compare it to what Colorado's rush attack looks like and kind of how refined it is, like yes, they come through the neutral zone with speed and they enter the offensive zone as that stat I just gave out. But it's what they do next. It's even more sort of devastating in that, yeah, you know, if the lane is there, McKinnell will take it coast to coast and try to get to the net himself and shoot it. But oftentimes they realize that that can be a, you know, it's a good shot, but you might be able to scope out an even better shot if you kind of slow down, look for the trailer or try to go

cross ice for a one-timer and try to actually get the puck moving laterally. So you're not just letting Mike Smith kind of, you know, get set and know that, okay, Nathan McKinnon's coming down the left wing here. I know he's going to shoot it so I can prepare for that fully. Instead, all of a sudden, he's stopping up. He's dishing at across Ballard and Trojan is getting a one-timer. That becomes so much more difficult to defend and it really stretches your structure. So that's kind of really been, what I've noticed in this is that Colorado's getting those

opportunities, but then it becomes even more difficult to try to kind of wrangle them or corral them because once they get in, you've already lost a battle because all of a sudden they're making, you know, all these other difficult plays happen. And it's good luck at that point. Totally. And the question is why, like, you know, getting back to Florida, it's uncanny, right? We saw so many highlight reels all season long where they make plays off the rush. And it was like Harlem Globetrotters, tic-tac-toe cross-ice passes for Declare one-timer into a wide-open net. And, you know, over four goals a game, over 82 games, and then they get three goals in four games total against the lightning. And listen, I don't think the lightning were all that, you know,

dominant. I'm going to just throw that out there. Like game three for me, the lightning, you know, they're up to nothing. I think they had already broken the will of the Panthers. And they played a poor start to that in game three. They had turned. over is left and right. And Florida simply didn't do anything with it. You know, they had upman rush opportunities, but they were a shadow of themselves. They weren't making these tic-tac toe plays we saw so many times in the regular season. Again, you have to ask yourself why, you know, was it simply they'd lost all their confidence? Was it that they didn't want to put risk into their game? Were they struggling with nerves? You know, young guys struggling

with theirs. I don't know. But the fact is Colorado, when you see their forwards get over the blue line, they have the confidence they're holding on to pucks and they're executing. You know, oftentimes you think about it. It must be coaching, right? Maybe the coach has just got them in a good frame of mind to play their best when their best is needed. Who knows what the answers really are? Yeah, certainly. Well, I think part of what the avalanche are doing that is, you know, kind of feeding into that is their game all across the ice is is so developed as well, right? It's not necessarily like there's certainly going to be occasions where, you know, the oilers dump it in.

You have Taves Macar, go back, Taves, absorbs the fordicker, it gives it to McCar. McCar skates up the ice and all of a sudden they get a rush opportunity. And that's something that they can only really do because, as you mentioned, Kill McCar just has this unique ability to basically do that himself. And it's a physical God-given gift. And it's great to watch for us. and the avalanche are going to enjoy that for many years. But they also help feed into that by creating so much in the neutral zone as well,

where if you, when you watch them, whether it's guys like Arturi Lekinen or Valerie Natchushkin or Gabriel Landisog, their wingers have been so awesome in this series at kind of getting back, helping cut off the space so that when McDavid is trying to carry the puck up, it's not a one-on-one, it's more of a one-on-two. They're able to kind of cushion them and push them more towards the boards. and if they create that turnover there or they kind of, you know, cause a miscommunication for the Oilers because all of a sudden they're getting stopped at the Blue Line, it's instantly flipping back the other way and they're getting an odd man to rush. And so there's been a number of those where they're kind of, they're almost like abbreviated transition opportunities because they're not necessarily the full length of the ice, but they may as well be because they're coming in all of a sudden at a three on two or two on one because they caused that sort of miscommunication for the Oilers at the Blue Line. Yeah, exactly.

And, you know, I think about the Oilers, it's interesting when you look at their journey to where they've gotten right now. We've talked a lot. And I think you talked with Thomas about, you know, some of the line matching that went on in the previous rounds, which was an interesting discussion. And I think one of the things to kind of parlay off that is simply the dematching. So when you think about Calgary and how they matched up to the McDavid line, like I look at Calgary's D. I don't see anyone that can really match McDavid, right? Colorado, it's obvious that they've got guys with elite movement back there that can,

you know, we've all seen that highlight real clip of McCar defending McDavid on the one-on-on. But it's more than that. It's, you know, down low, the agility to match him on his tight turns and the way. protects the puck. I think Colorado has more answers down low in those situations as well, just in the mobility department. I just didn't see it in Calgary. They've got, you know, good puck movers, Latana, who's got a ton of poise and does so many things well. But, you know, I don't see the agility that you need to defend them at the day, but, you know, Zadorov certainly isn't going to do it with his feet. I just didn't think there was an answer there. So,

I think that was, you know, one thing that was a huge matchup advantage for Edmonton. L.A., let's not forget, they played them tough. I thought L.A. has some really underrated D that did defend really well. And when it comes to the forwards, and I, you know, I know from experience having played this role as a shutdown, you know, I played against Crosby in the playoffs a number of years in a row is my job to play against them. The biggest thing is how you manage the puck, you know, how you manage that risk reward and staying above. Like you mentioned having numbers back.

But after that, you know, you really have to have D behind you guys like McDonough, who we had in New York, that can play against any type of player and defend them well. That can match their foot speed, match their strength. So I just think the dematchup is one that's made been underappreciated throughout the playoffs. Well, certainly. I think they've had Taves and McCar out there for about two-thirds of McDavid's five-on-five minutes so far. And honestly, the percentage of time that they've had at least one of those guys out there is probably even higher than that because Jared Bedner has done a really good job of mixing and matching his pairs. And if they're tired, he at least gets Taves out there with Josh Manson, for example, or he gets McCar and Byram out there. they've had one of those guys out on the ice pretty much whenever,

whatever possible. And in a right, their recoverability is world class. Like there's been so many occasions where it looks like they might be screwed, right? Like they're like, oh, all of a sudden, that of the player,

they've been beaten or McDavid gets by one of them. And then they're able to get back and kind of defuse it before I really explode. So yeah, I think that's a really good point. I think, you know, speaking of, or you mentioned kind of the idea of having a role and then playing it

and executing in that way, I guess for me, for the oilers, the sort of mystifying part from my end, just watching this series play out is it's so clear, you know, I don't be too critical about Darnal nurse because he's clearly hurt. And I believe it's been reported that he has like a core injury or something. And I'm sure he's going to have surgery the second their season's over. So he's clearly physically limited. But they keep playing him in Duncan Keith and players that really are struggling with the foot speed element and trying to match up one on one against all of the powerful skaters, the

Lange have. And the one guy that I've seen throughout this postseason that actually is able to, you know, contest aggressively the blue line and not just be completely blown over has been Brett Kulag for them. And I don't know if it's they view him as more of a third pair guy or that's kind of the role he's been playing. And that's why they seem to be reluctant to bump him up. But like for me, from my end, it would just be such an obvious adjustment based on the strengths and weaknesses in this series to get Kulak on the first pair with CC and try to have him out there versus McKinnon as much as possible. But for whatever reason, and Jay Woodcroft's done a phenomenal job, and I think he's an excellent coach, and he's done a lot of stuff really well.

But it seems like for whatever reason, they haven't been willing to try that switch. And I'm curious as to why that is. Well, I think it's a really good observation on your part. And, you know, sometimes a lot of these kinds of situations are not necessarily about, you know, logically thinking about how it's on the ice, but if you put yourself in the shoes of the coach, there's sometimes a hesitancy. I've seen it in another situation as a player throughout my career where a coach maybe recognizes some of the things that you're noticing as well, but from a risk reward standpoint in their shoes, they kind of feel like they need to ride the players that are supposed to be the top players because, you know, when the dust settles, they'll be criticized

eyes less for that than if they made a risky decision. I mean risky in other people's eyes, right? You promote Kulak and start giving them, you know, nurses at ice time. Everybody's going to say, well, it's this guy doing, you know, and if it doesn't work, you know, you're opening yourself up. So I think there's a reluctancy sometimes to make the kind of decision that you're talking about even when it may be the right one. and I think it happens, you know, rarely,

but you got to credit the coaches that do make those decisions because they're really believing themselves and they're sticking to what they see. And I've always appreciated that in coaches. Yeah, that makes sense. I do wonder if there's also an element of kind of some sort of added pressure that playing a team like the avalanche puts on you where, you know, they can create offensively themselves so easily.

And it feels like, you know, just so organically, over the course of the game, they're getting all these chances. They're able to score two, three quick goals like they did in game two in the blink of an eye. And you know, you perceive, you know, Darnel Nurse as your best option to actually get you a goal potentially. If you do get the puck in the offensive zone or even, you know, Duncan Keith's kind of playmaking and passing still at this point of his career is perceived to be, you know, more of a skill with a puck than what Kulak has off the puck. And so maybe you feel kind of an added, you know, pressure or a feeling that you have to get those guys out there more to try. and keep up offensively with the avalanche, even if, you know, if you were taking a step back

and kind of looking at it with clear eyes, you'd realize that maybe it's not the best way to go about it. Yeah, no, absolutely. I think there's a lot of truth to that. Okay, is there anything else on Avalanche Oilers that you think we need to get through these first three games, or do you want to transition to Lightning Rangers? Happy to go wherever you want.

The one question that's, I mean, leaps off the page for me is assuming the aves can get through this and close this series out, you know, can they play well enough that their goaltending is not a factor? To me, that's kind of the only question left for them because they've kind of answered every other question so far. But yeah, maybe it makes more sense to jump to the next series unless you want to comment on that question. Well, I, people listen to the show know that I generally try to not make any sort of proclamations with goaltending because literally I feel like anything can happen. It's the thing we know the least of it. And you can do everything right. And the goalie just lets in a bad one or whatever and all of a sudden everything looks bad. But I think they're playing at such a high level with such an attention to detailed defensively where even against McDavid, like he's going to get his chances and his points.

But to do so, he has to work so hard in this series where just, to get the puck into the inner slot, he's having to get it through two, three bodies at a time. And it feels like it needs to be like a minor miracle for them to get that chance to begin with, which we didn't see him struggle with in the past. And so they're doing everything they possibly can as a team to make life easy for their goaltenders, whether it is Kemper or Frantzuse. So I'm always worried about everyone's goaltending. But in this case, it's not that big of a concern for me just because I feel like the skater talent in front of them is playing at such a high level.

Yeah. Okay, let's do Lightning Rangers then. You know, we just saw game three. The Rangers had a chance there to really dig a stranglehold of a series. The Lightning came back and won it in the final minute. And now it's 2-1. You know, there's still a lot left in this series. I guess for me, the most interesting part from the first two games was, you know,

for all the bemoaning about the Rangers 5-on-5 play and whether they deserve to be here and sort of them getting outshot by teams they play against. in these first two games we really saw a very progressive offensive zone approach from them where they were so deliberate about hunting out, you know, cross-ice passes, one-timers, getting the puck below the goal line, and then trying to get it back out for high danger attempts. And so the volume isn't necessarily there, but the quality of the looks they were getting was so high and it was very deliberate on their part. And that was impressive to me seeing just how much quality they were able to create against this lightning team

after what we saw the lightning do to the Florida Panthers, as we talked about. Yeah, the Rangers are obviously been a conundrum for a long time here this season. Statistically, no explanation for how they're continuing to have success. You're right, like they seem to get outshot every game. But I do think that, yeah, you look at the,

you know, kind of scoring chance numbers, and they're often not quite as off-kilter as the shots are. And even, you know, breaking it down further, like, you know, a grade A chance versus a grade C chance, very different, right? And, you know, they're right in the thick of things when you kind of get down to that kind of granular look at it. And when they have Shistercun who's such a difference maker on those grade A chances against,

and then some guys that are playing with a ton of confidence that are capitalizing at a higher rate, it just somehow seems to work out. The other thing I think they have going for them is just, again, this is not necessarily a data thing, but Gallant somehow gets the most out of these guys. And the biggest thing is how they kind of have this water off of ducks back. They just are able to turn the things.

page so quickly. I think his biggest thing is that he's completely focused on instilling confidence. You know, the fact that he's doing this this year, what he did in Vegas in their inaugural season, like there's got to be something to that, you know, the fact that they're able to shrug off tough losses and come right back and play a strong game. You hear his press conferences. He hardly ever says anything critical about his guys protects their confidence and they've really responded. Well, I'm curious about the Cadmouse game here in this series with the goalies, right? Because we know Vasilevsky versus Turk and, you know, the caliber of both those guys. There's an interesting stat that's come up recently with Vasilevsky where I believe he's given up

36 goals so far in the postseason. 19 of them went high blocker, nine were gloveside, and then eight of them were down low. and he hasn't been being five hole at all yet. And I don't know if that's necessarily that unique of a stat because it feels like most goalies these days are so good down low with their pads and they're so athletic and they basically block everything off down low. It's not like the 70s where you're seeing kind of pucks that are going along the ice just constantly beating goalies.

So you do need to generally have a very well-placed shot and pick your spot up high and really hit it for it to be consistently going in. And so I don't think it's necessarily an indictment against Vasilevsky that he's giving up these goals high blocker side because you love. look at them and it's like, all right, Panarin's coming down on a two-on-one or Zabinajad's coming down on a two-on-one and they're just one-timing it with the perfect shot to beat them and that's probably going to beat any goalie. But I am curious about like, especially over the course of a series like this when you kind of identify trends or, okay, maybe the goalie is potentially

human in this one particular category. Like, is that something that you are specifically aiming for and trying to repeatedly hit that mark? Or is it something that you don't necessarily pay too much attention to because the game's moving so fast and typically you don't have enough time to actually be kind of lining the ball up like it's a golf ball and hitting it where you want it you kind of basically just shoot it and hope it works out another really good question i mean i think like it's not that example is not so much something that you have in mind that's actionable you know i think you know there's been situations in the past where you know i remember when we played Flurry when he was in Pittsburgh.

Mark Andre Fleury Scouting report for us was, you know, listening. He's so athletic. But, you know, you throw pucks into his feet from bad angles. You know, he seems to really struggle with that.

So that was something that we could actually execute on. You know, in terms of like, when shots come up in a game, you just never kind of know when and how they're going to happen. So it's hard to kind of plan ahead. Obviously, you want to get any goalie moving.

And on power plays, you always have certain triggers you're looking for, you know, ways to find the open man. But I think there's some scouting reports that are more actionable than others. The Flurry one is a good example of one that was. But, you know, the one thing that I see with the lightning is, and I will throw a stat out here for this one, They right now in the playoffs are ranked number one in second chance or rebound shot attempts against. So that's a big one, right? That's a big one because when you've got most of these goalies, all the goleys that are left in the playoffs are, you know, pretty good.

And, you know, all NHL goalies are pretty good. They're going to stop most of what they could see. What they can't do is when they're on their back or they're out of position. and make the saves with a wide open net. But that's where if you're D and, you know, the players in front do an exceptional job, tying up sticks, clearing pucks, you know, not allowing that, you can make any goalie look even better.

And Tampa, that one, that's one that jumps off the page. First overall is giving up second chance shot attempts from a slot against. That's really interesting. I like that. Okay, Don, let's take. a quick little break here and then we're going to finish up this conversation after the break. Recognized employees with Custom Ink. Show customer appreciation with Custom Ink. Outfit your teams with Custom Ink. Easily add your logo to your favorite products and brands at Custom

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Igor and the level Shisterkin is playing at, is having on these games. I think it's one thing that, you know, he has a 9, 30, say, percentage is postseason. According to natural statuary, he's saved 21 and a half goals above expected so far in just 17 games. Like, all these numbers are preposterous. It's like the consistency of how frequently he's basically giving up two goals or less and then just shutting the door is just mind-blowing. I think, you know, my friend of the podcast, Jack Hahn here recently brought up an interesting point, though, on Twitter where he was kind of wondering about the effect that, you know, how much of the Rangers willingness to push the play in this series and get out in transition and on the rush is dictated by the fact that they trust their goalie to such a high degree right now that they are necessarily overly concerned about conceding the occasional odd man rush against that are resolved from it. And so it's allowing Adam Fox to be especially aggressive and pinch in the offensive zone to try to keep plays alive.

We've seen it actually throughout their decor, it seems like whichever pair they have on is really, you know, trying to keep the play alive and sag a bit lower in the offensive zone, even if it means they're going to get caught out of position because they have such faith that the guy back there is going to be able to stop it if they do get into that situation. And so, you know, the lightning, they're a very skilled team, but they would much prefer a more. methodical pace to these games. They're going to attack off the rush, but it's going to be by their own choosing. And when they do so, they're going to go for it really aggressively, but they don't want to get into this track meet where it's just back and forth trading chances, because that's just not the type of team they are at this point. And I think we saw that in round two against the Panthers where maybe they were a bit more concerned about their goal tending and how it could hold up. And so they weren't necessarily fully embracing that

aggressive approach. They did in game four, but by then it was too late for them. But I wonder how much of that psychological element of the trust level that they have in just drinking right now is allowing them to open up the game a bit more offensively, whereas a team that didn't have that same faith might be a bit more reluctant to do so. Yeah. So a number of layers to this. So the first is that I think that Jack's totally right. When you have that trust, it does give you the confidence to put a little bit more risk into

your game as you try to get rewards knowing that you've got the better goaltender. It sounds ridiculous, but it's definitely a big part of it. You know, because it is a game of risky award and as a player, you're trying to balance every decision you make, you know, to come out ahead. the second layer of it is I think what the coaches and the teams do to help the players manage that situation. And, you know, you look at Carolina and the fact that they couldn't win any games on the road, it was almost to me like it wasn't necessarily as much about that they didn't trust their goaltender to put risk into their game. but it was more that they felt like they had this mentality they needed to play this perfect road game.

And so just take no chances whatsoever and try to win one nothing. And it was like they kind of took all the playmaking out of their game and their offense dried up a lot of times in those games. And then at home, they just played with a little bit more swagger, up the ante just a little bit more.

and they created the chances that they needed to. So that's the second part of it. The third part is knowing your opponents. You mentioned Tampa. You know, they knew against Florida that they could not afford to give them them odd men rushes. That was Florida's bread and butter. So they just eliminated that from their game almost entirely.

And, you know, knowing your opponent in a seven game series, you know, everything about them, every player the team as a whole, their tendencies, their strengths, their weaknesses. And that's one thing Tampa's been really good about is identifying what those are and putting together a game plan that they feel will work and sticking with it. I'm so fascinated by that the psychological element of it because, you know, Kevin Woodley has this theory about how for goalies, a distinct lack of trust if they're in a bad defensive situation

where they don't trust the skaters in front of them to, you know, block off that cross seam pass or the back door. And so they feel like they have to start cheating and getting off their angle to try and anticipate a pass because they don't have faith that it's going to get stopped. And so they have to do everything themselves. And that kind of is poisonous in the sense that all of a sudden they're cheating. They're giving up bad goals that they otherwise would have had if they had just stayed where they were. And it's kind of this trickle down a snowball effect of sorts.

And this is kind of the inverse of it. But I do, I had imagined that, you know, you're going to be a bit more conservative. if you feel like the second you make a mistake, it could be wind up with you fishing the puck out of your own net and your coach getting mad at you for being on the ice for a goal against, as opposed to if you feel like, all right, as soon as, as long as the goalie stops it,

you know, your coach the next day during the video session might give you a hard time about missing your assignment or whatever, but ultimately no one's really going to remember. We tend to latch on to just these specific events of goals, right? And we don't necessarily worry about the chances you're conceding. And so if it means you can get away with that, all of a sudden that might open up your job.

game a bit more offensively. And so that would make an entire sense in terms of what we're seeing from the Rangers so far in the series. Yeah, it's funny. You know, we've been in situations as a player like Tampa, 2011, we reached the conference finals, lost to the Bruins in game seven.

We had, you know, we had picked up Dwayne Rawlison at the deadline. But before that, our goaltending was really kind of inconsistent for a lot of that season. And And, you know, we really hunkered down defensively as a team because we didn't have, you know, the strongest confidence in what we had behind us consistently. And it made us a really good defensive team.

And then when we when we picked up Rollison, who's just, you know, playoff track record speaks for itself, we were really tough to beat after that because we had this mentality of giving up nothing. and then we still had, you know, a first-rate performer behind us. So, you know, this mentality does, it's a real thing. You know, it's so funny you mentioning that team. It's a bit of a, a bit of an origin story for me in terms of how I got here with, with analytics and, and just, you know, igniting my love of this side of the game, because back then I was, you know, much more of a casual fan. I was following the NHL, but I wasn't necessarily.

And, you know, our access to stats was so much more rudimentary at that point. And I remember being, like, kind of surprised just because living out here in Vancouver, I wasn't watching the Tampa Bay Lightning that much in 2011. And so I was like, oh, like, this is, this is interesting that they're, you know, getting to within Game 7 of McCarpen's final here. Like, I didn't see this coming. This is kind of out of nowhere from my perspective. And then now looking back at it, it was that Lightning team was, you know, one of the most elite

five-on-five teams in the league. I'm looking at it right now. You guys had the number one. high danger chance here at 515. You were second and expected goals. It was a team that in 2022, if you were just following throughout the season, like it wouldn't necessarily catch anyone by surprise

because you'd be like, all right, this is one of the best 515 teams in the league. They're checking off all these boxes for all these metrics we tend to look at as predictive of future success. And so it's interesting just, you know, given the distance of time

and how much time is passed and our understanding and everything, like my perception of that team has changed so much over the years. Yeah, exactly. And no one expected us to do what we did. I think, you know, Julian Breezebaw was involved in a lot of those kind of more subtle acquisitions back then as well. You know, obviously he and Steve Eisenman did an awesome job putting that team together. But again, now it was another situation where we came back from 3-1 down against Pittsburgh and felt invincible after that.

I believe we swept Washington in the second round and, you know, obviously ran into a hot Bruins team. And the one thing I remember from that game seven is in the playoffs, we had the number one power play and the number one penalty kill in the league in the playoffs. And the Bruins had the best five on five numbers. And there was a single penalty in the game. Yeah, I do remember that. Favored them. but it was a hard-fought game and a great run for us.

I remember that being egregious at the time, just watching that and being like, how has there not been a single penalty? I've witnessed at least a handful of legitimate infractions and they're just letting everything go, but that's playoff hockey for you, I guess. Yeah, I don't know if there's anything else necessarily from this series. I've been very impressed with Keondria Miller's play,

like his underlying numbers don't necessarily look amazing, but just based on the role they're at, asking him to play on the volume of minutes he's playing against Tampa Bay's best players. I think he's been phenomenal in his own zone. You know, the kid line has been performing really well. I think they're up 10 to 5 so far this season when, this postseason when playing together at 5-1-5. So they've been an obvious bright spot.

But, you know, beyond that, I think we've kind of hit most of the main talking points. Is there anything on either the Rangers of the Lightning that you feel like is worth pointing out that we haven't gone to yet? No, not really. I mean, the one thing is, I don't know if I was alone in this today, but watching this game, you know, the commentators were saying, you know, this is a must-win game for the lightning. And while that was true, I almost felt like it was a must-win game for the Rangers

because, you know, you give the two-time defending Stanley Cup chance, you know, the game back and now they're within one and they're building confidence, you know, who would you say is the favorite? this point with the series 2-1 Rangers. It's so tough. It gets back to that intro conversation we had about not allowing single games to just completely sway you one way or another because I went into the series expecting just based on what I'd seen from the lightning in the previous round and kind of our expectations of

the way of the level they can get to in the gear they can hit. I felt good about their chances in this series. And then watching games one and two play out, it just. ran so counter to what I was expecting to see heading in. It was understandable that there was a bit of a rust with a nine days off or whatever in game one. But even in game two, I believe the five on five, you know, shots coming off behind your passes. So either into the inner slot or coming out from behind the net were 10 to six for the Rangers in game one. And then nine to five in game two for them. And so like they really did everything they wanted to do in those games and really impose

their will. And so I went into this game being like, I'm willing to believe anything because even if the Rangers get outplayed, they have Shastirkin playing at such a high level that, you know, they score a couple power play goals. He makes 50 saves. They could steal this one. And that's pretty much almost exactly what happened, right? They scored the two power play goals. They went up. Shisterkin had, what, 49 out of 52 stops or whatever. And they still wound up losing it. So I have no idea what to expect from this series. I could see it going either way. I know that's not a very satisfying answer. But both these two teams have such like a clear and linear path towards what they need to do to win these games.

And I have no idea which one's going to be able to pull it off. But it's going to be really fun to watch. Oh, absolutely. It's funny. Getting back to how this conversation began, you asked about how, you know, I watch these games, is it from a player's perspective?

But, you know, obviously there's a reason you and I are talking, you know, I have a passion for the analytics. And I'm very analytically minded. So, you know, that's one thing that I tried to do is I try to marry those two perspectives, the experience as a player and some of those mental side things that we've kind of brought out with the data. And, you know, obviously our data in hockey has gotten so much better since 2011, like you mentioned. But, you know, I feel like we're still scratching the surface in so many ways.

And it makes it hard to predict still. But in terms of this series, I just say I feel like it's going to go the distance. but I do feel like, you know, Tampa has not played their best hockey yet in any series, including even the sweep against the Panthers. I didn't feel like they were the Tampa bold yet. So I felt like it was a pretty big missed opportunity for the Rangers tonight, but they keep bouncing back and finding away. Yeah, I will say, you know, watching these games,

it does feel like when you were just mentioning earlier about the Panthers and kind of why they weren't able to play their regular season brand of hockey against the lightning in round two. It kind of what went wrong there. It feels like the Rangers willingness to, for better or worse, embrace kind of more of a choppy game in the neutral zone where they're willing to just kind of throw the puck up into space and then get into foot races and battles and try to make stuff happen that way. Might actually serve them well in a matchup like this because I thought that the Panthers just unwillingness to change from their strategy of like having to pass the puck up and need. completely up the ice going from point A to point B to point C with tape to tape passes, just wasn't going to work against the way the Tampa was kind of playing their trap

and the way that they were basically asking this, like trying to suck them into into their defensive shell. And so for the Rangers, I think the reason why they have had some success so far amongst other things is that kind of chaotic approach. And, you know, when it doesn't work or when they don't have the puck for large stretches, it can look ugly. But I think in a matchup like this, it can give Tampa Bay's defense. and a little bit of problems.

So we'll see. Like the Lightning clearly played significantly better in game three, I thought, at 5-on-5 than the first two. And they have game four at home here as well. So it could easily be two-two heading back to New York. But I do think the Rangers have been doing things legitimately well, and it's not just the matter of kind of smoke and mirrors and all. They're lucky to be here.

Like, they deserve to be here and they're doing things well for a reason. I totally agree. I think back to, I don't know what game it was, but it was, you know, one of the two-on-one goals the Rangers scored where they, you know, through a backhand saucer pass, you know, threw a stick, and it was a one-timer over Vaselowski's shoulder. And it's like they're playing with risk in their game, you know, a lot of coaches and a lot of teams, they've eliminated those kinds of plays, but the Rangers are not only trying to plays, but they're executing them. So they deserve a ton of credit. And let's hope, let's hope that this

series goes the distance because the other one doesn't look like it will. And it might be a long stretch of no hockey if it doesn't. Yeah, I'm not ready. I need more hockey in my life. So let's keep these series going for as long as possible. All right, Dom, well, this is a blast. I'm glad we finally got to do this. Big thanks to our mutual friend, Ardo, Cal for helping us link up. I'm not saying this just because I know he's listening right now, but he is legitimately the nicest dude in the business. So this was a blast. I'm glad we got to. I got to jump in. echo those sentiments. Art is not only the greatest guy, but he's the hardest working guy in show business. He deserves so much credit for the ESPN team. He's probably the biggest part of our season, all season long. So art is the man.

I love it. Are we going to, what do you doing these days? Are we going to see it back on TV? What's going on? I don't think so. I'm off of the summer. I'm off of the summer. It is the question. in terms of this season, postseason, I think I'm good to go for the rest of the summer here. I'll just be a fan. I like it. Well, enjoy these games. Looking forward to seeing you back on ESPN, and we'll definitely have you back on the PDOCAT sometime soon now that we've had you on finally. It was great to finally get together.

And yeah, we'll talk again soon. All right. That is going to be it for today's episode of the Hockey PDOCast. As always, thank you for listening. Hopefully you enjoyed today's chat with, with Daumor. We will be back soon on this feed. I think once these conference finals are over and we know what the Stanley Cup final matchups are going to be, we're going to do our annual, big time, deep dive breakdown of all the matchups to watch and things to look out for. And hopefully, I'm going to try

to get our pal MJ back on for that. I feel like we've done those a couple times over the years and they've always been some of the best shows we've done. So look forward to that. In the meantime, if you did enjoy today's show and you've been enjoying the PDO cast. Please consider helping us out by leaving a quick rating and review for the show wherever you typically listen to it. A bunch of you had done so already, some good ones in terms of the reviews that make me laugh every time I see them. So hopefully if you haven't done so yet for whatever reason, you can do so. Just smash that five-star button. That helps us a lot. If you're feeling extra generous, you can actually write up a little review. That kind of basically just lets people know either what you enjoy about the show or why you

recommend they check it out and every single one of those helps us a lot helps keep us up near the charts and in people's podcast apps in terms of recommendations and gets more people checking us out and so the more the more love we get in that regard the easier it'll be for us to do more and more of these shows in the future so thanks for listening thanks for helping out and and we'll be back soon so until then here's the outro music the hockey pediocast with dmitri Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovic and on SoundCloud at soundcloud.com slash hockeypedocast.