The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 447: Something Spicy

Episode Date: July 11, 2022

Shayna Goldman joins the show to discuss the Alex DeBrincat trade, the Filip Forsberg extension, and other notable news items from draft weekend. Topics include: How the Senators can use DeBrincat Why this was the right type of risk for them to take The return the Blackhawks were able to get The importance of maximizing value during rebuilds The Forsberg extension and free agent market Oilers shedding salary and how they'll use the cap space If you haven't done so yet, please take a minute to leave a rating and review for the show. Smash that 5-star button. If you're feeling extra generous, you can also leave a little note about why you recommend people check the PDOcast out. Thanks for the help, each one is much appreciated! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

On a beautiful run through the park, on a pleasant day, you can easily get lost. No, no, no. She didn't kill him. Huh? In your true crime podcast. It was the pool guy. So obvious. Whatever motivates you works for us. It's all about letting your run be your run. And Brooks is here for every runner.

Doing the research and sweating the details to create gear that works for you. It's your run. Brooks, run happy. progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dimitri Philips. Welcome to the HockeyedioCast. My name is Dimitri Filipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Shana Goldman.

Shana, what's going on? Nothing's going on. Good to be here. It is good to be here. So I was out of town last week. I did a brief little vacation and I missed draft weekend. So I didn't get a chance to do a show right after kind of reacting to the biggest news and notes and trades.

And so I think people are still interested in, in breakdowns of what happened while we wait for free agency here. So I thought it'd be good for us to kind of catch up and chat about some of the most interesting stuff that kind of popped up around the league while, while everyone was congregated in Montreal. You were, uh, you were there yourself, right? Or were you not? Yeah, yeah.

I was there for short trip, but it was super fun. Nice. Okay. Well, I think, I think the logical starting point for us here is the Alex to bring at trade because I feel like that was definitely the biggest or most consequential deal that we saw

over the weekend and it was a it was a doozy like for I think no one was surprised that he was moved to the draft I mean there were certainly months of speculation and kind of a growing sentiment that he was on the way out of Chicago as they burned it all down and it was a matter of

of when not if but what I personally was definitely surprised by was the return they actually got. I don't know, maybe I bought too much into all the hype about kind of the reports we'd heard about what they're asking price was or how many teams were significantly interested in him and kind of felt like this market was building up. So maybe I bought into that too much.

But for whatever reason, I talked myself into the Blackhawks being able to recoup significantly more than they wound up with here. And that's kind of a good entryway into this conversation for me. because that was possibly the most surprising kind of element of this deal for me. Yeah, like, I mean, the Blackhawks, the way if they're going about the rebuild is kind of intriguing to me, because for so many of these players, you're like, don't you want this young corps to build around? Don't you want to focus on moving the veterans out and things like that? And DeBrin Cat is the only one of the young players that I think it actually can make sense to move him out if you're worried about what is next contract might cost.

And most of all, does this timeline line up with Chicago? And there's a ton of reasons why you could say it doesn't. you want a player in their prime. His next contract will pay him post prime a bit. So you don't want to like to start with a contract like that. But here it is, I'm shipping out these, you know, young players. And everybody knows they want to tank. Everybody knows they want to move out these players, but you should still be squeezing teams for more, I think. And maybe it's because we don't have a good enough basis for like what the value of a top five pick is. You know, we can measure that in game score value added. We can measure that

in goals above replacement. But we don't see these spicy deals enough where the second overall pick is actually moved or the fourth overall pick is actually moved so we could see how much it's worth but I would think he's worth one of those picks and maybe not seventh overall. Yeah, it's weird because he's still 24 years old, right? He turns 25 in December, I believe. So we're kind of programmed to think of that being as like a quote unquote young player and it certainly is as someone who turned 30 years old this year, what I would give to be 24 once again.

And like he's entering the prime of his career here and he's got a lot of productive seasons left. But on a personal level, if you're to brink at and you're kind of looking at this realistically, the Blackhawks are probably going to stink here for at least three, four, five years. Your mileage on that vary. But considering what they've done so far this summer, I think it's going to be a long haul, certainly. And if that's the case, like, and you're looking at it pragmatically, would you want to sign up moving forward to that, knowing that you're going to basically spend the rest of your 20s being on a crappy lottery team? So, like, it makes sense.

it's weird to think of like he is a young player, but at the same time, the shelf life is so short in the NHL for being a peak player. So like from his perspective, I imagine he personally probably did not want to stick around for this as well. Yeah.

And like from the reports, I think of so from Mark Lazarus, he wasn't necessarily forcing his way out of there. But I mean, we could all use our logic. Even if he said, sure, this is fine for me now. In two years it could be another conversation, especially if you don't like the way

the team's going the direction of things. And based on the start of it, I wouldn't be surprised if anyone said they didn't like the direction of things. You have to trust that your management has a plan and it's going to turn this around quicker. So it makes sense in so many ways for Chicago to pick him to move versus, I don't know, Doc, letting Strom walk for nothing. And you can make the argument for Hegel too as a young player on a cheap contract that you want to be part of the solution, not part of the answer to get out of there.

And you do have to take big swings to get those big returns, which is what you need to turn to this team around. quicker. But you should be pressuring for every little bit that you can get. And if I remember correctly, like, there were some links to New Jersey in the second overall pick, which New Jersey said they were going to be willing to move even after it was known that it was the second overall pick. If I'm Chicago, that's, that is like the highest, you know, amount that you can get back in terms of draft capital to settle on the seventh. You're just like, oh. Yeah. Well, it seems very under one. They got the seventh of 39th and then a 2022,

2020, 24 third. And this is a draft where I think everyone seemed to agree that there's some interesting prospects certainly, but it's relatively lackluster at the top. Like the seventh overall pick might not necessarily carry as much weight as it would in an ideal season. Like the, you know, the crown jewel they got Kevin Korninski, who I like like at elite prospects in our draft guide, we had them ranked as a 19th prospect in this year's class. And I don't know, sometimes in the situations, I think the market simply doesn't. doesn't materialize the way you would have hoped. And you kind of wind up having to just take the best offer you can.

But if that is the case here, I guess my question is why the Blackhawks simply didn't just wait it out then, right? Like if no one was beating this specific offer at the time leading up to the draft, why not just hold on to them until someone inevitably gets desperate, which always happens in the NHL? It's not like they're working against a ticking clock here where it's not even a Kevin Fiala situation where you're kind of viewing a contentious RFC. FA negotiation and you're wondering, okay, how is this going to go? Do we even want to pay him? Can we even afford to pay him for this one season? Like, he's under contract at $6.4 million next season. And there's a lot of contractual machinations we can get into beyond that. But it did buy them quite a bit of wiggle room here to patiently. And it patiently, and it really felt like from their perspective, they didn't have a first round pick in this year's draft because they had all removed it for Zett Jones last year, misguidedly. And so it almost felt like they were like, well, we need, we

We suck and we're going to be really bad this season. We need to have something to show for it immediately rather than waiting for the 2023 first. And so they basically didn't want to drag out this process any longer. And they just kind of pull the trigger on it. And I feel like that was a mistake because, as you mentioned, the Brinket really did feel like the one remaining young-ish asset that they had that could conceivably met them a meaningful return that could help speed up this rebuilding process beyond just getting like the 27th overall pick at the next year's deadline or whatever that they're going to be able to get for some of

these other spare parts. Like this was the one guy where they could have gone multiple significant pieces and they didn't really come away with that in my opinion here. No, I don't think that they did at all. And there's always a risk to waiting. You know, you look at so many trades and I think one that like sticks out of my mind. So like Alexander Gurrier, like he was someone everyone thought was going to go for more. And it seems like the Rangers thought they could have gotten more from. So they held on to him. And obviously they'd got a good return relative to what he is now. But if they had traded him a season and a half ago, when he was at his height,

they would have gotten a lot more back for him. They decided to wait and have dried up. Like, there is a risk to that. There shouldn't be here. This is a 40 goal score in the league on a reasonable contract who is young. This is not a 28-year-old, a 29-year-old, a 30-year-old. This is a young winger who shows that he can put pucks in net. And he has great passing skills, too.

This is, you know, an all-around great forward to have. So this should have been the piece. Obviously, they can still move players like Taves and Kane. And they're going to get a lot for them because they have the championship caliber play and three cups and all of that. And that is important. They have higher cap hits. They're older. And each one has flaws.

We can look at Taves season. You know, he had a very rough year. And right, believe so when you understand the circumstances around it. But at the end of the day, those circumstances are consideration in the next trade. And Patrick Kane has his own can of worms right there. So this is the one to maximize. and instead you're getting a seventh overall picked back that you're hoping one day can be like Alex De Brinkat. And the chances of that are pretty slim.

You have such a special player. So you want to maximize that. You could have retained salary mid-year. You could have waited. Like you should be the ones holding the card. And I understand if they don't want to move him mid-year because they want a tank. And if he's on their team, he's going to make them a better team than they are. But everybody in the league knows that, that you have to try to leverage the situation better.

And instead of, like, crunching to the pressure. be the one to control it because you have the best asset that's going to be moved in this trade. Yeah, I was going to say I have no idea what they're doing, but that would be false because I know exactly what they're doing. Like they're telegraphing it pretty clearly, right? Like they're blatantly going to try to tank as aggressively as they can for this upcoming Badaar draft. I think they're trying to put the pressure on Cain and Taves to give in and waive their no move clauses

and move them as well by basically getting rid of every other. are around them and making the situation so bad in terms of the playing environment that they're going to have to give in. I think Kane, Taves, and Seth Jones are the only players on their current roster that had more than 22 points in the NHL last season at this point. I guess the issue for me and, you know, tying into the brinket, pretty much everything they did over the weekend at the draft, you know, taking Razick's deal and helping the leaves out of a jam by doing so at a negligible cost, like basically moving up.

whatever 11 slots and from the second to the first round, not qualifying Strom and Kubolique, um, pretty much everything they've done for me is, is kind of suboptimal from the perspective of like, yes, it's small stuff for a team that's going to suck and is facing a wrong rebuild. So it's not,

we don't want to suggest that it's going to be like make or break because it's ultimately not going to change the end result. But it does kind of reflect like it's a sign that they're in over their heads at the moment in terms of the way they're approaching it and shouldn't exactly inspire confidence that they're going to be able to pull this process off in a timely fashion. Like we've seen teams like the Rangers and the Kings over the past couple years do so in like a highly efficient tactical and aggressive manner where like it was tough for a couple years, but they they turned the page over pretty quickly.

Now they obviously had lottery luck in the process as well and had players come and sign with them. But like they earned that luck by by being very dull. deliberate in their approach. And so I guess you could say the Blackhawks are doing so here and basically just getting rid of everyone and fully embracing the tank. But it feels like they've left so much value on the board over this past week. And that's not going to do them any favors moving forward.

So I can't help but feel disappointed by it. Yeah. I think it's so tricky because you look around the league and you can see like the cautionary tales of trying to speed it up. And I think Buffalo represents that a team that did try to tank. It didn't work out for them. They didn't get McDavid while they ended up with Jack Eichel, who is a great player too. like, oh, sorry, here's Jack Eichael, like horrible stuff right there.

But, you know, like the deals like Kyle Ocoso to try to speed it up and it burned them. And then you look at the Rangers and it took a lot of luck. But you can also look at the flaws in their system too. Like here it is year one as the playoff team and they're in a cap situation that you don't want. You're trying to clear that out. You don't want to accumulate that back before you're even back in the postseason. So I can see if they want to learn from that. But there's a difference between being deliberate and just being impatient.

And it just feels like that's what they are. And I get it to an extent, again, they want to clear the roster for this year, sure, but you have to squeeze the life out of every asset you have, and they're not doing that properly. You know, these are the young players. If you're deciding that they're not a part of the answer, then you still want to get something for them. And maybe they thought if Dylan Strom's on the roster next year, and he only has Patrick King to play with and not to bring out his value, won't be what it was. But trade them this summer, qualify him, figure it out. Like, you can, you know, take a risk and hope that it's going to pay off.

And if it doesn't, you know, you have a center on your team that isn't completely terrible. And even when you are rebuilding, not for nothing, you can't have a team of 18-year-olds. You need other players. You need the 21-year-old now who will be 25 or 26 when you're a better team. Like you want to have that variance right there. It doesn't work out. Otherwise, you need NHL caliber players and young talent. That's the future.

Like, you need that variety. And it just seems like they're going about this in the wrong way. They're tearing it down. and I just don't see what they're projecting moving forward. It seems like they're just jumping the gun on too many things. Yeah. Well, it's also at the end of day. It's an entertainment product, right?

Like you need to have some reason to either turn on the TV and watch a team or pay whatever amount of money to get a buy a ticket and go watch the game in person. And, you know, I'm struggling to think of reasons why you would tune in to watch this team at this point. So it's pretty bleak. Let's talk about the brinket, though, and kind of a more positive outlook from the senator's perspective here because, you know, maybe I'm, I'm on the higher end of my evaluation on him as a player. And I'm fine with that because I believe he's absolutely dynamite and he's shown us no reason to believe otherwise throughout his short NHL career.

He's, he's scored at a 36 goal pace over his five NHL seasons. And honestly, as impressive as that is, it's kind of dragged down by an outlier 2019-20 season where his shooting percentage had dipped a little bit. The only players that scored more than his 73 combined goals the past two years are Matthews, Dreisdell, McDavid, Caprizov, and Ovechkin. And now I think, you know, some of the common pushback that I've seen about that production is, like, some of his shooting efficiency has been boosted by playing next to Patrick Kane, who despite all of his other flaws, still is one of the best passers in the league. And we've seen the chemistry between those two in terms of, you know, the brain cat has become so good at kind of getting lost in defensive zone coverage.

and then all of a sudden popping up for a one-timer and basically beating the opposing defense and goalie before they could react in time. And I certainly think there is credence to that. Like there was a great situation for him to score a lot of goals. At the same time, though, I think we've seen enough from him as a player in terms of the nuances and the layers that he's added to his game over the past couple years to make me feel like even if his goals come down a little bit in Ottawa, like let's say he stops being a 40-bust goal score and it's like 32 to 35 or whatever, he's got enough to offer in other areas that we're not

necessarily talking like about a one dimensional prime Mike Hoffman here where basically if he's not shooting and scoring, he's not giving you much. Like I, I'm confident in him as a player where he's going to be able to be a contributor regardless of how many goals he scores, acknowledging that that is kind of his main calling guard at this point. Yeah, obviously he's a goal score and that's great to have in this league because at the end of the day, he can need goals to win gains. So, you know, even if he doesn't hit 40 every single year, like it's not like he's suddenly a bust. And, you know, you can, you can keep that in mind that he plays well with the great playmaker, make sure he has a good playmaker.

You don't need Patrick King at the heights of his careers to have Alex Brinkept be successful. And, you know, you can find a dual threat that goes alongside him, even better because here's someone that has these crafty passing skills and can generate offense in transition. He can generate offense off the cycle because, like you said, you can get lost in defensive coverage and just pop up and be ready to shoot, you know. This is a really talented player. As much as his scoring has slanted towards goals, it's not like it was the only thing he brings to the table.

And that's the most important thing. So if you're a team like Ottawa and you go, we have Tim Sutsla, we're going to put him alongside Alex Brinket. That's a combination that could be absolute dynamite for years to come. Like, who wouldn't want that on their team? And obviously, Ottawa needs that difference maker.

They've needed that, like, big move. And they made it. And it seems like it's the perfect situation. And maybe, you know, the risk is, if DeBrin Cat doesn't want to stay in Ottawa, obviously. But if he's in a good situation to succeed and it seems like he might be, if all of a sudden Ottawa has, you know, a much better offense than they did this past season

and they can just focus on, you know, cleaning it up defensively a bit. Like, there's a lot of potential there. And that's a team that's now taking the steps to turn it around. And who knew we would be talking about Ottawa managing the situation better than Chicago? That right there for me is so ironic. But, you know, DeBringcats are a super skilled player. And if you're trading the best player in a deal, like it's very hard to win the trade when you're the one losing that player. And Otto, I think it's like a slam dunk for them.

It's just such a natural fit it feels like to get them that impact winger. If you have Brady Kachuk and Alex Brinket is, you know, your top two winger depth, you're not doing something wrong. Yeah, that combination of potentially in the top six with Norris and Kachach on one mind and then Stutzla and to Brinket is highly appealing, right? like what we saw from from timstut's land year two where I believe like on corey's tracking he graded out really well at creating zone entries and then turning those zone entries into scoring chances for either himself or a teammate and so the idea of Alex the Brinkat being his running mate being the other the guy on the other end of those rush opportunities is obviously very appealing also the two of them I believe were second and 11th in penalty differential last year and drew 67 combined calls

between the two of them. And so you can kind of see the type of problems that their speed and their play on the puck is going to provide opposing defenders with as they kind of try to chase them around on the ice. So I completely agree. I think it's a slam dunk fit for him here. And he's going to look great in that situation. Now, as much as I love the brink at it and as excited as Senators fans

should be about adding him to the team, you know, you hit on something there where there are a couple of concerns that exist for me. this trade. The first is, I think it's a valid question to wonder how much this really moves a needle for them in isolation next season. Like, we're not necessarily talking here about a team that was a contender and now they infused an elite player to help and try to push them over the top. They finished with 73 points last season and a minus 40 goal differential. And they're still playing in a brutal Atlantic division where even if you project the Bruins to take a step back,

you've got the lightning, the panthers, the leaves, and then even organizations like the Sabres and the Red Wings are taking steps forward and should conceivably be better. And so even adding to Brinkat without subtracting anything from their roster, they're going to be better, but they still, in my opinion, have a massive gap to bridge, particularly with moves in the blue line, because it's not good enough even if they bring in Jake Sanderson,

like they still need to do more there. So I know there's like, you know, it's an annual tradition where there's this kind of usual offseason optimism that springs eternal for rebuilding teams. And then each summer it happens and the games actually start. I think there's justifiable reasons to be excited about this senator's team, especially offensively upfront. But they still need to do more this summer before I fully just completely go off and pretend like they're all of a sudden this amazing playoff contender.

Like there are legitimate things to address here. Yeah, they were one of the worst defensive teams. I think Anton Forrestberg did a pretty good job managing the chaos, and I think that he can be fine in net if they can get him just an ounce of support. I'm not asking for them to become some defensive stalwart. We know it's not going to happen, but just like one little ounce. And it can be tweaks to their defensive system. I think are necessary.

I think it's personnel that's necessarily that has to change. Like there's a lot for them to do. But if they can create some chaos and be some disruptors in the Atlantic Division, I think that could be fun for them. Like, you know, if they can be spoilers for like another minute, and then start trending back up. Even that would be helpful. And I think at the end of the last season,

we saw them kind of create a little bit of chaos for teams that actually needed points. And here, Ottawa is actually scoring goals. So if they can outscore their problems, that's nice for them. But they're going to need a little bit more than that to actually be good, especially said in such a competitive division. But it's nice to see, too, like we see the contenders, that tier of contenders in the Atlantic. And now there's the up-and-coming team.

So it will be interesting to see who gets there first? Is it going to be Detroit? is it going to be Buffalo? Is it going to be Ottawa? And I don't think, and then Montreal is just at the bottom, which is fine. That's where they want to be right now. And it's totally cool and understandable. But I want to see, like, the rise from those three teams to see who handles it best.

And I don't think, I don't think most of us would look at it and go, Ottawa is going to be. And I still don't think they're going to be. I think that Detroit has some really smart decision makers. I think that the Sabers have done a good job to bolster their front office with really smart minds like Sam and Char. Like that, that right there. You look at it and, you know, well, he certainly knows what it takes to win. and how to tweak a team to get them over that, you know, that last hill to win, I don't know, back-to-back cups.

Ottawa, I have quite a few questions of, you know, the front office, the decision-making over the years and things like that. But it's a good start, you know, it's a good start to the off-season. If you're starting the off-season after being on a very bad team by bringing Alex to Brinket in a trade that most people are looking at going, you're the clear winner and you didn't give up much, you know, okay, like I'm interested. I'll see what you do from here. Yeah, I've seen the, you know,

The worst case scenario brought up of he plays in Ottawa next season. Like they're more fun to watch obviously, but the end result is more of the same. They're like an 80, let's say an 80 point team instead of 73 they were last year. They missed the playoffs. And then at that point, the Brancat has about as much as contractual leverage as you can have in this current system. Like if he doesn't want to sign long term in Ottawa, you can basically take that $9 million qualifying offer for 2023, 2024, and head into that following summer as a 26-year-old unrestricted free agent. And that would obviously be a tough result for the senators.

But that brings us back to that initial price that we talked about at the top to acquire them. Because if things don't go well next year in Ottawa and they kind of sniff out that there could be trouble looming, I have no doubt in my mind that they'll be able to pretty easily pivot and recoup a similar amount, if not even more for a brink at. Like imagine what's the worst case scenario? They're not better next season. And they're approaching the trade deadline and you can retain to brink at 50%. And he comes at $3.2 million for a contender.

I feel pretty good about their chances of getting a first and a quality prospect and maybe even more in return. Now it won't be the seventh overall pick or whatever. But in a better draft, you know, you took a chance. You took a swing. It doesn't work out. It's not like they're all of a sudden going to lose them for nothing. like there's plenty of opportunity here for them to adjust on the fly accordingly and still make something of this beyond just, you know, the best case scenario.

Like they, I think they've left a lot of room here for themselves to navigate. Yeah, no, I totally agree. It's a smart move for that. And they'd be the ones directing the market because who on the market is going to be better than Alex DeBroncat a 50% salary? Absolutely no one would have an asset like that. If you're a contender and you're afraid your opponent is going to go for a player like that and you might have to face off against them and you go, great.

they're adding a 40 goal score. We don't see moves like that at the deadline that often. You know, Mark Stone was like a big player to actually move at the deadline to Vegas and get that huge contract. But that's pretty rare. We see first round picks go for a lot less. We see second round picks go for a ton less. Look at like Jeremy LaZan was worth the second round pick.

And Ben Chirot was worth the first round pick. But if that's the case, Alex would bring it a 50% should bring back a haul for them. And they're going to be the ones that decide that. They're going to lead the market and everyone else can follow around them. I don't know. I wouldn't say Jeremy Lozone was worth a second round pick. I'd say he got traded for a second round pick. Yeah. Thank you. Yeah. Although they did. Yeah, they were pretty quick to, pretty quick to extend them long term. So they clearly like him. Um, yes. Um, yeah, I, I think, you know, to kind of put a ball in this, like, I ultimately think the risk for the centers here,

we both agree was more than worthwhile to take. Like at some point, you have to actually try and win and like, you need to get good players to do so. I, we, all have this kind of like idealistic view of what like a rebuild looks like you basically just draft a bunch of guys at the top of the draft they all hit their 100th percent dot projection throughout their development they become great and all of a sudden you're a contender but realistically like that's not how it works like you need to you need to take some some risks you need to take some calculated swings you need to sometimes consolidate some of those futures in a tactical way to try and bring in a player and this is the exact type of player you do it for he's a 24 year old

that's already been productive, so it's not necessarily a pipe dream where you're just betting on tools or skill set. We've seen him score a lot of goals at the NHL. He's in his prime. He should at the very least, beyond the entertainment level, help some of these other young players like Stutzla and Norris and everyone on the roster be in a better position to succeed. So they're not in this just soul-crushing environment where they're just losing throughout the start of their entire career and it sucks to be there.

And then by the time they come to their next contract, they just want to leave because it sucks being there. And the past five years have been pretty miserable in Ottawa. They've been really bad for a while. Their image around the league has taken a massive beating along the way. Like not a lot of players that are hitting free agency this off season have Ottawa very high than their wish list. And so a way to change that is moves like this where you're bringing in good players, you're trying to win.

And so I think it represents a nice change for them. And it should really kickstart that process as you're talking about. So I, there are risks attached as we've outlined. but I think ultimately it was just such a no-brainer for them to go this route. Yeah, no, it's the risk to take. Like everything has to be a calculated risk. And, you know, if we look at this and we're going, what a spicy deal? And every other week, it's like, this is nothing.

This is what we need to see more. We need to see teams be bold and go for it. And it would have been interesting to see who else, if they had that same strategy, would have gone for it? Would the devils have gone for it? Would another bottom-feeding team be like, you know what? This is the player that we need to turn things around. It would have been so interesting to see a team.

that we could look at that maybe could be in that contender status, figured out like Dallas go, we need an impact willing to have more teams in the league kind of jumping at it. And, you know, the Kings got Fiala that took a team right out of the mixed or Debrinkat that I think should have been in there because the kings need anything. They need someone who can finish. And, you know, we know different can can. But at the end of the day, there finally was a bold move.

And if it pays off, hopefully other teams take no and go, okay, maybe we need to know when to start taking the swings. And who to take the swings on? And if you're taking a swing on anyone, it should be a young, talented winger versus giving someone a seven-year contract and free agency that you have to overpay to bring them into your crappy team. Yeah. No, definitely. Okay. I've got two other topics I want to hear.

I'll allow you pick the order. Do you want to talk about the Oilers? Because I thought they had a very interesting draft weekend. Or do you want to talk about the Philip Forsberg contract extension and kind of the rest of the market and maybe Johnny Goddrow and kind of that element of things? Let's go with that. That's exciting. All right. So Foresberg signed eight years, $8.5 million.

He turns 28 this summer. He's coming off a career season in which he just went off completely offensively. He scored 42 goals despite missing 13 games. Only Matthews and Kreider scored goals more frequently on a permanent basis than him. I believe he was tied for fourth and five on five goals total. Now it was inflated like pretty much every efficiency perspective, right? like he shot 19% I believe the Predators shot 12% at 5 on 5 with him on the ice so it was certainly an opportune time for it to all kind of come together and coalesce in that manner for him offensively

but you know I can't be I can't be rational I love Philip Forsberg so much everything about him the game the mustache I was that you have to mention the mustache I'm glad you went there early because it was at the top of my mind the mustache is fantastic honestly one of the most satisfying players to watch in my opinion in the entire league like we don't for whatever reason, don't think of him in his capacity. But he, for my money, is one of the best power forwards in today's game, like the combination of skill, but also just being able to basically put his shoulder down and just take the puck to the net and keep defenders on his back.

And the puck protection he displays while doing so is just completely immaculate. It's just beautiful to watch. And so he's obviously the question with him has been health and the ability to actually realize all of that skill into fundamental results where he hasn't scored nearly as many goals as you'd expect a player with his skill set to score throughout his career, partly because he's missed so many games. But I don't know. I don't have anything too insightful to say about his deal because it's like a lot of money for a player who's going to be 30 soon. But at the same time, the predators are kind of boxed in. And he's such a great player that I can't fault them for wanting to retain him.

Like he's the most exciting player they've ever had. Yeah. If they didn't sign him, you really would have to take a long card, look at this roster and be like, what do we do? Because that was the impact forward. You have an impact player at each position. You have UCSarros. You have Rominoos and then you have Forsberg. Do you have to bank on the fact that Matt D. Shane's going to have another good year? Like, you really can't. And I think he was a big part of Forsberg's success. But like, if you look at Nashville's offense and that top line can bring the puck in with possession and actually carry it and generate offense and create chances off those entries. Otherwise, it's Romanoisi carrying the load. And the second, third, and fourth lines, it's chip and chase.

and not much happens. There's a big reason why that top line is as like, you know, highly touted as they are. They have the results. They have the underlying numbers to back it up. Will the contract age well? That's the biggest question. Like some of his comparable players, it doesn't. And, you know, the thing that works in his favor is he's not as physical as some of those players.

So when you see those like downswings, you're like, well, I don't expect him to play the same style. And we know how physical style can like lead to aging more rapidly. So if he can, you know, end up like, say, Steven Samcose and his aging curve, who is the top six comp by Dom Le Sischin's model, then, you know, that's a pretty good deal to have. But even if not, like, realistically, we know how long a team's lifespan is as a contender. And I don't think any of us look at Nashville and go, it's definitely going to be them in eight years. They can maintain it. They don't have the young talent because they've been so focused on contending.

But if they're going to with Saros and Yosy, then you need Forsberg. And now you have to make the right moves around it. Ryan McDonough brings in defensive depth. Maybe they could have dressed up a little bit more. They need some more impact forwards to go in their middle six. And I don't know, maybe like it would help to have a backup goal you can count on so you don't need UC Starves to play 80% of your games. Get hurt at the end of the regular season because you ran him into the ground in this

first year as a truly bonafide starter and then going to the postseason with no goaltender go, well, here's the Colorado Avalanche and now we have zero shot of being spoiler. So more work to be done, yes, but this was a fundamental start to their offseason because if not, I think the entire direction of the franchise would have to change. Yeah, no, certainly. Yeah, it was a steep price to pay, but I think the world of them as a player. So I think it was reasonable. I, you know, the reason why I wanted to kind of talk about this angle is obviously,

I think now everyone's attention shift. Like we seem to break out, go off the border, he got traded Fiala. We saw Foresburg get extended and stay in Nashville. Now understandably, everyone's going to kind of shift their eyesight here over the next couple days to Johnny Goodrow and what's going to happen next with him. And so I'm really interested to see kind of how that's going to play out and whether he is actually going to leave Calgary for potentially more money or if he's going to stay there and what Calgary is going to do as a result of that decision, right? Like I think ultimately for them, like they were so good last

regular season and have so much to build off if they could bring that team together. But if Goddrao leaves, I don't think they would do this, especially with Daryl Sutter is still there. But like, I'd be tempted to not try to replace him because what he brings to the table and what he meant to that team was so, um, instrumental with everything revolving around him offensively that I don't think you could just kind of go plug and play any other UFA and overpay them to try to kind of replicate that. Like you'd almost,

I'd almost be tempted to just go to the opposite direction and completely tear it down. But that would obviously be a very tough sell considering the success they had last season. But that's something I'm going to be certainly, but what, be watching over the next couple days. Yeah, I think the smartest thing a team can do is no one to step back. And even if you're not going to fully tear it down, it's just stepping back and going, let's retool quickly. Let's move a couple assets, bring something back in and just tweak the roster.

I always think the blues the year that the year before they won at the deadline. We're like, we're going to get out in the first round. They stepped back. They traded Paul Sazin, if I remember, right, got a couple picks. And they were able to make, you know, impactful moves that off season because they just recouped some assets. So that would be the smart way to handle it. And that might be like the easier sell than tearing it down because everyone obviously wants to recoup money from, you know, the last couple of years and not having fans. And if you can sell playoffs, you can, you know, make money off of that.

I mean, if you're the flames, you open up your wallet to math, you could chuck. But the big thing is as, as amazing as that top line was, and each of them was so valuable to their success, Johnny Goddra was the most valuable player there. He was the, he was, you know, the, what is it, the straw that stirs the drink. That's right. Yeah, that's what he was. Small Johnny Goddrae, who is the most impactful player, you know, he was incredible in transition. One of the best wingerers at creating offense off the rush. And his passing was so superb, too.

I don't think it gets talked about enough. You could create offense from behind the net so easily to set up, you know, Elias Linholm, who had a career and goal scoring. It's no surprise. It's playing alongside Johnny Goddreau. So it'll be really interesting to see what happens. We don't see these elite players move often enough. We have John Tavares.

We have Artemie Panarin. So it would be really interesting see if Johnny Godro actually does because it sets more of a precedent, I think, for other players around the week, too. Like if more players start doing it, trends develop and, you know, everyone could be a little more gutsy and maybe we see more player movement in the NHL, because I mean, we're just looking for a little bit of chaos, just a bit in the most boring league ever. But it really would be interesting to see like what its value is in Calgary versus what it is somewhere else. You know, another team obviously is going to overpaid to keep them.

And then when we have actual elite players moving in free agency, we can see what happens with those contracts versus the second or third line caliber player that gets paid like a first liner to join a new team because they need somebody, anybody to help them out. if we start seeing these impactful contracts from elite players, I wonder if that starts shifting how free agents get paid as well. But since we never have those elite players moving around, we don't get to see it enough. Yes, yeah. All right, let's take a quick break here. I've got a, like, we'll do like 10 or 15 more minutes on the oilers

and a few more things before we get out. But yeah, we'll take a quick break here. Every deep playoff run starts with building an amazing team. Doing the same for your business. Doesn't take a room full of scouts. You just need Indeed. Don't spend hours on multiple job sites looking for candidates with the right skills when you can do it all with Indeed. Hate waiting? Indeed's U.S. data shows over 80% of Indeed employees find quality candidates whose resumes on Indeed matches their job description the moment they sponsor a job. Something I love about Indeed is that

it makes hiring all in one place so easy because with virtual interviews, Indeed saves you time. You can message, schedule and interview top talent all in one place. Indeed knows that when you're growing your business, you have to make every dollar count. That's why when you sponsor a job, you only pay for quality applications from resumes in our database matching your job description. Visit indeed.com slash bluewire to start hiring today. Just go to indeed.com slash bluewire. That's indeed.com slash bluewire. Terms and conditions apply. Cost per application pricing, not available for everyone. Need to hire? You need indeed. Recognized employees with Custom Ink.

Show customer appreciation with Custom Ink. Outfit your teams with Custom Ink. Easily add your logo to your favorite products and brands at Customink.com. Make Custom Ink your Custom Gear partner with great customer service, quality products, and all in pricing, along with personalized help when you need it, and an easy-to-use website when you don't. All backed by a 100% satisfaction guarantee. Do it all today at customink.com. All right. Well, I'm glad you brought up the sort of the spiciness and the chaos and seeing teams

trying to make stuff happen because, you know, kind of tie this all together. I talked to all this a little bit on a solo podcast that I did recently breaking down the Fiala trade, but from what I heard, two teams that really caught my interest as the finalists in those trade discussions that were genuinely exploring a deal weren't the ones that were being reported, right? We heard a lot about the devils and how they were kind of floating around the second overall pick, trying to make a move happen. We heard the senators and obviously they wound up getting to brink at. The two teams that I heard that were most directly linked other than the Kings, of course, were the Seattle Cracken, which I found very interesting. And I know that they're

going to be a bit of a chaos agent this offseason because they've got a lot of money to spend. They've got a lot of cap flexibility. And I think last season left a pretty sour taste in everyone's mouth and they don't necessarily want to allow that to become the trend in the Norman Seattle. And so I think they're going to be up to stuff. I'll obviously, you know, from what I heard, like the Kings were pretty much the only team that wanted to spend over $7 million annually on Fiala to make that deal happen. I think the crackin would have been interested. It didn't make sense for them to give up the equivalent of a first and a top defensive

prospect as the acquisition cost to facilitate it. And so I think that took them out of the race. But then the other team was the Calgary Flames. and that kind of had my eye rows raised a little bit because obviously if they're bringing back all their players, they would not have the financial resources to make that happen. Now, I don't think it's a big deal because I'm sure this happens all the time where GMs are just literally doing their job by kind of mapping out backup plans and exploring potential ways to improve their team and kind of just seeing what it's going to take

to make a deal happen. So I don't want to put too much stock into that, but just I thought it was interesting to think about because it did seem like they were very involved in that conversation. And that wasn't something that we necessarily kind of thought about as a logical fit. So I kind of wanted to just float that out here. Yeah, I think that's so interesting. The Cracken definitely be the agent of chaos. And you look at everything they've done over the last year and the assets that they've put together so they can make these impact moves and not feel it at all. Like if anyone's going to spice it up, I feel like it's then they have so many smart

minds in their front office that it doesn't make a ton of sense for them unless they plan, they had other, you know, plans in the works that they're like, well, we can move these assets and not feel it and now we can do XYZ and have, you know, a team that can actually generate offense next year because they had good defense if they could get, you know, average least goaltending, you know, just spice it up with some forwards. But Calgary is really, really interesting to me because it's, if you're not, if you're not exploring this, even if you know what's on your checklist. And for them, it's Johnny Good Joe and Matthew could check and rightfully so.

And Andrew and Japanni. Right. And Angie Mantipani, too. like if you're one of you want to avoid offer sheets and you have to manage your cap space but you're not doing your job if you don't explore these deals you don't do your job if you don't kick the tires on everything here that constantly and so many people take kicking the tires is something i think a little bit more literal like oh my god they're into this deal but that's exactly what they should be doing you should be exploring the cost of acquisition for a player like that you should be trying to make your team better and if you can put together a bunch of good players you can

deal with the cap later, just hopefully not to the extent of, say, I don't know, a team like Vegas, how they've handled the cap. You can go a couple steps back and handle it a little bit more personally. But yeah, that's your job. Put together the best assets you can and then figure it out from there. And they obviously have the assets to make a difference if they had to move cap space out. But I find that super interesting. And there's other teams around the league we could look at, like say, I don't know, Edmonton as a team that should have been right there. But they don't have the same future assets either because they've mismanaged everything. that you could possibly mismanage over the last few years.

Well, that's a great segue because I thought their week was very interesting because they obviously paid quite a relatively hefty price to get off of Zach Cassian's contract and certainly like I'm not going to give them a ton of credit for doing so because well, one, everyone just launders bad contracts to the coyotes, but two, it was a very self-inflicted wound that they never should have signed to begin with. But, you know, with the combination of dumping Cassian's contract and Keith choosing to retire, if Mike Smith retires as well, they basically have, I think, 20.6 million in functional caps based work with Heading Interpreting Agency. Now they have to take care of a couple of their own RFAs. But I think it's very interesting because they've got a unique opportunity here this offseason to meaningfully consolidate that spirited run they had to have. conference final and even potentially build on it and improve their team. Like assuming they were paying attention to that series against the Avalanche and took the

right lessons from the defeat beyond thinking, oh, we need to get more difficult to play against or we need to get tougher or whatever. Like they've got a chance here to legitimately improve their team and considering the level we saw Connor McDavid and Leandro Sidel on one leg basically play at. Like that should inspire a lot of confidence that if they can nail this offseason, they would be a very, very interesting team moving forward. now your mileage on how confident we should be in Kenny Holland, nailing that is fair to wonder about.

But at least they do have the resources right now to conceivably really improve their team. And so that's why I'm interested in them. Yeah, I think the bars on the floor with what I expect the oil is to do and Ken Holland specifically between the time in Edmonton and in Detroit. But if you always can have a chance if you have a chance, if you have Conradt given Leon Dreis Idol. You should always, always, always have a chance to compete to be successful.

You just have to find the right pieces around them. And I know it's easier said than done. But, you know, we look at the Zach Hyman contract and go, well, it was a little bit overpriced. And at the end of it, it might hurt them, sure. But, you know, he was very good for them this past year and in the postseason two. And players like Brian Eugene Hopkins that if you have, you know, a good supporting cast as a jumping off point, you're doing something right.

The Zach Cassian contract, like you said, self-inflicted wound right there. And now that they had to buy their. way out of it. And hopefully that's the lesson some teams are going to take from this, not that you can just ship off your bad contracts to Arizona, which everybody knows you can because who among us wants to sign in Arizona is how they're going to have to get players. But, you know, you should learn that you shouldn't be signing those contracts in the first place. You need to be a little bit more shrewd with your cap space. Otherwise, you're going to pay for it in the long run. And those are assets they probably could have used to have, you know, to either replenish your prospect pool or draft players and then move them.

at a later date to keep contending. So the fact that they had to hurt themselves now, obviously it sucks, but they got very lucky that Duncan Keith was retiring after they oddly had to pay to get him instead of having the Blackhawks pay them to take him. It helps its addition by subtraction because his game has already declined a lot and I expect it to only get worse from here. Sure, he has the leadership and all of that. And I think that I could poke a million holes in that argument right there.

But strictly on the ice, it does help them. And Koskinin obviously wants out. That's a contract that expired. That was a tough look to at the time of the signing. So they're going to have some cap space to make some moves. And I think free agency is a rest opportunity because they don't have a million, you know, future assets to to use right now. I'd want to keep them for the deadline to address the team properly to ensure that they can be at their best for a playoff run

because you have Connor McDavid and Leandro Seidel and you should be going for it every single year if you can. but I'm really curious how they handle it. They take the right lessons from it. And I know they have the negotiations ongoing with Evander Cain, and that's a player that as good as he might have been in their run, strictly speaking on the ice, I would not be investing that much in it. I would be looking elsewhere.

Here's the thing. I think Elliot Freeman recently wrote in a piece of his where he noted how players he had spoken to around the league were taking notice of what McDavid and Dre Saddle did in the postseason. and they were legitimately impressed by it to the point where he felt that the team would be able to leverage it to get guys to come play with them. We hear that all the time.

Right. Like, if you want a chance to win, you want to be in a position where you can put up goals and points, that's a pretty good spot to land in playing next to either Connor McDivry or the Andre Settle, especially if you're on the power play with them. If that's the case,

then paying a premium to retain guys who have been productive alongside them offensively kind of defeats the purpose of that. Like, just strictly from a value perspective, you should be identifying the next players. that you can get to come in and benefit from that position of strength and kind of use that wiggle room you've afforded yourself to improve elsewhere, right? And I just, I'm so tantalized by them right now because I've spent so much time thinking about what I would do to improve them and there's so many courses they can take,

like retain Brett Kuwak. Do not trade Jesse Puli Arvi. Try to trade Tyson Berry because he's kind of redundant if you're just going to use Evan Bouchard, who's better than him in that offensive role. try to steal Travis Sandheim from Philadelphia after they just spent all these resources to get Tony DeAngelo. Like, don't potentially don't overpay for Jack Campbell. Maybe just get James Reimer for nothing and pair him with Stuart Skinner as an interesting cheap tandem. Like there's so many little crafty moves that they could make this off season to maximize value and come back with an absolutely loaded roster. And I'm worried that they're going to instead do a bunch of other stupid stuff where they spend money where they don't need to.

but we'll see what happens and it'll certainly be fun like they're certainly going to do stuff. So at least from an entertainment perspective, there will be stuff for us to analyze and talk about. But I did just want to highlight them here because as they were freeing up all this money over the draft weekend, I just like spent, I just went down like this big the biggest wormhole of kind of fantasy booking what I'd want them to do. And I was like, oh man, it'll be so fun to manage this team over the next couple weeks. But alas, it's going to be Ken Holland instead. Yeah, and he probably won't be nearly as fun or creative. But no, like I like the argument they made to you about if you're playing alongside Connemad

and Leon Drexed, you shouldn't be paying a premium for that. That player should want to do that. And if I'm a free agent, even if I'm a restrictive free agent, you're contemplating signing an offer sheet, or if you're an unrestricted free agent, think of going there. I don't even know if I'd want to sign a long-term contract there. I would be like, give me a year next economic, David. I want to boost my own value. Even if you only end up spending one year alongside Connick-McDavid and here you have to decide

would you rather have a ton of fun playing with McDavid long term or make a ton of money? You know, and there's an argument to me. You've made. Why not both? Either way. Yeah, exactly. I would be like, I want to sign for a year there, boost my value going, look, I can keep up and compliment top players.

You should want me on your team. Then other teams are going to want to pay you. I would, I would be like, I would want Conradiv's, you know, one of his wingers, maybe you want to have as like a staple player, sure. And on the other side, I have it just a revolving door of players. You want to come in, boost their value, go elsewhere, and keep that cheap, keep your books a little bit open in the long term because we know they have long term contracts like Darnel Nirst and Hyman and McDavid and Joyce Idol that are going to be like clogging it up long term,

which they absolutely should be. You have to build a core out. But it would be so interesting if that's just the hotspot for a year or two. It's like, all right, play here, make some money and now go make even more money because everyone's so impressed at what you can do. Yeah, well, especially now that they have a postseason success this year as well, right? So it's not necessarily just like a regular season thing. Like if you can, we've already seen what that looks like for them heading into the postseason as well. And so all of a sudden, it becomes a much more appealing spot theoretically for for players to come play.

So yeah, it'll be interesting to watch. I'm excited for free agency to start on Wednesday. I think there's a lot for us to follow and discuss. And Shane, we're going to certainly have you back on the PDO cast sometime down the road to discuss all that. So I'll let you plug some stuff. What have you been working on lately? Because I know you've been busy, as always.

So let people know where they can check you out and kind of some of the recent stuff you've put out there. So you can find my work at SportsNet and at the Athletic. I'm going to have, I think, like, some sort of winners and losers maybe at the athletic after free agency. But coming out next, the leader today actually is something on like this salary cap. And it tries to assign values for each core. I use the cup checklist.

So it's the 12, you know, elite winger, top line winger, top six forward, things like that, elite defensemen, how much cap space should be allocated to those positions, how much they're generally underpaid by. so we kind of can see that cap structure and then apply it to future seasons. And, you know, there's something I'll definitely revisit when the cap goes up. And we see costs increase to see what the difference is because the last couple of years have been so funky. But I just wanted to know how much is, you know, an elite center actually worth. So when we see payers get paid on free agency day, you know, we could look but and go,

well, they're going to be a second line center for them. What should they be worth versus what they actually just got paid? Love it. Well, certainly recommend, as always, checking out all your work. and that's going to be really fun to read. So, Shana, this is a blast. Enjoy a free agency and we'll chat soon. Thanks for having me.

All right. That is going to be it for today's episode of the Hockey PEOCast. As always, it was a blast to have Shana on the show. Hopefully you enjoyed our roundup of our belated roundup of the 2020 NHL draft weekend and all the stuff that happened during that time in Montreal. So we're going to be back here soon with more content on this feed. I believe the plan is either. Late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, we are going to do kind of like a quick look at what happened at the start during the first wave of free agency.

Usually we see right out of the gate most of the big names sign on day one and most of the money is sped and allocated accordingly. So we're going to have a lot to discuss there. And then if there's other moves that follow after that in the coming days, we're going to get to that as well. We're going to do a few more shows here before we kind of wind down and take a bit of a break heading into August and getting a refresher before the start of the following season. So thank you, as always, for supporting the show. Thanks for listening. If you did enjoy our chat, please consider helping us out, as always, by leaving a rating and review.

A lot of you have done so already. They're awesome. I love to see it. Hopefully, if you've been holding out and you haven't done so yet for whatever reason, you can do so now, and this is your motivation that you need to get it done. So thanks for doing that. Thanks for listening. Thanks for supporting us.

And we'll be back soon with more. Videocast with Dimitri Filipovich. Follow on Twitter at Dim Philipovich and on SoundCloud at soundcloud. At soundcloud.com slash hockey pdocast.