The Hockey PDOcast - Episode 55: Better Late Than Never

Episode Date: January 27, 2016

It may've taken us a handful of weeks and countless false alarms, but we've finally gotten around to adopting the New York Islanders. In doing so we discuss the lofty expectations we had for them after last season, how they stack up against the Metro Division's best, John Tavares and Kyle Okposo not playing together as much as they used to, and whether those black 3rd jerseys are good or not. Every episode of this podcast is available on iTunes, Soundcloud, and can also be streamed from our website. Make sure to not only subscribe so that you don’t miss out on any new shows as they’re released, but also take a minute to leave us a glowing review. If you’ve been enjoying the work we’ve been doing please also consider chipping in to help support the show (www.hockeypdocast.com/donate). There are a handful of housekeeping costs associated with producing the show that need to be covered, and every little bit helps. Thanks for listening! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

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My name is Dimitra Filipovich, and joining me as my co-host, Travis, what's going on, man? We're finally doing the Islanders today. Oh, man, are we actually? Yeah, that's the, we've put them off for like eight months. So I think our first episode, we were like, yeah, let's do the Islanders next episode. And then 50-something episodes later, we're finally getting there. Well, we better bring it because our last show was our first in-person podcast for the HockeyPedio cast with three people, no less, one of whom was a former NHL player. So I feel like you really got to bring a fire today.

Whenever someone sets a high benchmark for me, I always succeed in not clearing it. So I will gladly underwhelm the listeners and let them know that Thursday, her tomorrow's episode will probably be better. Yeah. Okay, well, let's finally actually just adopt Islanders. Let's get that out of the way here so that we don't have any excuse later in the show. I don't know. There's such a weird team, right? Because I feel like last year they kind of built up so much goodwill with hockey fans.

They were a really kind of fun story to follow, and they had a young, exciting team, and they obviously made the playoffs and had a really nice series there with the Capitals, and there was a lot to build off of there. And this year, I don't know if it just necessarily might just be like we had unfair expectations because we expected they'd take another leap after last year, but it just like it seems like they've been just underwhelming, I guess, is the best word to use. Yeah, well, I think, again, part of it is, and I feel like we've echoed this two or three times now, It would seem to me that there was so much opportunity for a team like them and the Rangers and really a handful of other teams, even the Flyers, too, to really make headway in that division with Pittsburgh, really getting off the first 40 games.

They kind of just buried themselves. And with that plus Columbus just being a disaster, there were so many points there. And really, the only team that gobbled up those points were Washington, right? So the Rangers were on that PDO bender for a while, but they've come back down to Earth. I don't know. The Islanders more than maybe any team in the league this year have just kind of floated between like average and good all year long. And they've never really looked great and they've never really looked bad. And they just kind of are sitting, you know, they're very likely to make the playoffs.

They're probably going to sit in that, you know, three, two, three spot in the division. But like, I don't know. Shouldn't we have, I feel like we should have higher expectations based on last year because last year they were so damn good and so damn fun to watch. Yeah, well, and I remember our first show, I think we did ever was our Eastern Conference preview, and we were kind of going back and forth. We had both the New York teams, the pens and the caps kind of right there, and we laid out the case for all four of them of how they could conceivably kind of take this division, and the caps have obviously just lapped everyone else,

but right now you basically have six teams with both the Flyers and Hurricanes, somewhat surprisingly throwing their names into the discussion, and now there's just like this jumbled mess of it could go either, really any way based on like a hot week or two or injuries or what happens around the trade deadline. And I don't know, I guess it's a sort of uneasy position to be in for the islanders. But ultimately, there's still so much talent on this team. And I think that maybe, as I said, it's just kind of clouding our perception of them because we did have these high expectations. But when you take a step back and kind of look at it as just this year in a vacuum, they've been perfectly fine, I guess.

Like there's nothing there that's necessarily super worrisome for me. No, what do you're, I was curious when I knew we were talking about the Islanders today, I was curious to hear what you had to say about Jack Capriano because he's kind of just like, he's been there for a really long time. And I don't think people appreciate how long he's been there. And I, Islanders fans don't love him. I don't know that they hate him either. Again, another guy, he's kind of like just an ordinary coach. But if you look at his like tenure compared to a lot of the coaches around the league, like he's been in his position for, a pretty damn long time. And it's, I think it's an important thing to make note of because when you

have a team where expectations are growing and the talent assembled is clearly higher than it was a few years ago, you now have higher expectations for your front office and subsequently your coaching staff. And I don't know, I just, I've never really gotten a strong read on him. He does some quirky stuff with the blue line. And I think he plays a couple, a couple more minutes than, than I would love for a couple of blue liners on the back end for that team. But beyond that, I know the Islanders fans love to nitpick him, but I just don't really have a strong opinion on him, but I feel like I should because he's been there for so long.

Well, the thing that I noticed right off the bat when I was digging into the numbers a little bit in preparation for the show was just a bizarre usage with his forward lines, right? Like they have that set forth line in stone with Sizekis, Martin, and Clutterbuck. And then basically... Well, that line also averages 5,000 hits a game per the scores at Barclays. Right. And then after that, it's just been like one big blender for the entirety of the year.

And I don't think it's kind of been questionable to me. And I haven't really seen anyone kind of give a good explanation of why this is the case. But last year, Okpozo and Tavares were just unstoppable together. And they were pretty much... They played all their minutes of 515 together. And this year, it's been the blender. where opposals played with him a little bit, but then it's been guys like Bailey and Anders Lee

and Brock Nelson, and now I think Grabowski's playing with Tiberis. And I'm just like, I'm kind of curious what he's doing there because I'm all for mixing and matching and not necessarily just being like, okay, these are more four lines, no matter what, because new information does present itself and certain guys play better than other guys

and you want to kind of keep things fresh. But at the same time, it just seems like there hasn't been a lot of continuity there. And I'm just, I've yet to see anyone really kind of give a logical reason why. than I remember in the preseason they were saying that they might be sort of moving a little bit away from Akoso just because they were kind of worried that they wouldn't be able to sign him this summer, right? But it seems weird. They're a contender. Like, they shouldn't be. The Akoso story is interesting because that's a real thing. But I also, I don't know, I've kind of been a bit underwhelmed by him too this year. Again, maybe it's an expectation issue for me and where he was last year. And maybe a lot of that was driven by the fact that he played some minutes with Johnny T. And Johnny T. And Johnny T. is amazing. And he, he, He elevates the play of everyone around him. But I don't know, I just, if I was looking at the forward group for a minute,

I have certainly come in a little underwhelmed with Kyle Likosa this year. And I think he's going to be a fascinating next contract because I don't really, he's young, like he scored at this level. But, I mean, where do you peg him for his next deal? Like, are the Islanders going to commit to him? You know they're not going to spend the cap. So it's kind of up in the air. Yeah, I don't think they will.

I think he's going to get paid quite a bit. I mean, he's turning 28th this spring. And he is one of those guys. It's fascinating because he went, like, he went, I think, sixth or seventh overall in his draft. And he had a good start to his career, but then injuries and whatnot, derailed him a little bit there. And he just, like, fell off the radar. And then all of a sudden, I remember that series against the Penguins.

He kind of restaked his claim as being, like, a legitimate kind of power forward type. And he's translated that into a few years of success here and made himself quite a bit of money, I'd imagine, in the free agent, Mark. market, but I like him a lot as a player. I mean, he's sort of one of those guys that just does everything really well. And when he's on, and admittedly, it's not always the case, but when he's playing his top game, he's remarkable to watch. Like, he's just so dominant physically. And I don't think the Islanders are going to pay him, but I'm sure someone's going to give him top dollar. Yeah, so, I mean, what do you suggest about him this year? I mean, do you read it

the same way? Is it a Tavares thing? Is it, I mean, because, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, Would you agree that he's kind of stepped? And again, this is relative. I think he's still a pretty damn good player. But would you agree that he's taken maybe a half step back this year relative to where he was? Yes, but I think that directly ties into the whole Tavares thing, right? I mean, last year I saw they played like 700 of his 800 minutes with Tavares. And this year it's like less than 50%.

And the same can be said for Tavares. I mean, it's kind of snuck a little bit under the radar because people have been so focused with Stamco's, for example. but like Tavares's production is is down quite a little bit from last year and obviously the standard was so high. I mean, he was over a point in a game and one of the league's very best players and he's still been really good this year. But I haven't really seen anyone talking about the fact that he's well under a point of game this year. And some of that is percentage driven and whatnot, but it's just a thing to follow, I guess. So what's, all right, so now that we've, we've agreed that Kyle like Poso, regardless of where we are at this year, he's going to get paid and he's a pretty good player. and John Tavares is obviously still amazing.

What is weirder, the fourth line usage or Brian Straight usage? Oh my God, it's Brian Straight. I don't understand why they keep trying to make that happen. What is the deal with that? He's not good, and they constantly play him. Yeah, it's bizarre. And I saw they had a guy named Scott Mayfield in the lineup a few days ago, and I thought we needed to talk about that

because that definitely can't be a real person. But, I mean, we would pass. Do you want to jinx it? So he goes on a 15.6 game. Bender and becomes the next Brandon Davidson? Well, yeah, Brandon Davidson. And I remember we were talking about Brett Pesci and Jacob Slavin. And these guys, and we were like, who the hell are these guys?

And then suddenly people are writing stories about how Brett Pesci and Jacob Slavin are, like, the keys for Carolina's success. And it's just like, I guess, yeah, maybe Scott Mayfield should be looking for big things in the future based on the shoutout we just gave them. So what is the problem with Brian Strait? because I just don't think he's very good at anything, but to me it seems like the coaching staff just swoons over him. And the reason why I say that is he just, he's very rarely out of the lineup. I mean, a guy plays a lot of minutes. And I feel like they're, what's the word? They're kind of, they're burning themselves up by playing him for a little reason other than they think he's one of the six best defensemen they have.

And I don't think it's necessarily true. at the very least I'd like to see his minutes mitigated. I think he's a pretty big drag on there on their five-on-five play. Look, you can say what you want about the fourth line, and they're hunting for hits more than anything else. But, like, I don't know, he plays a lot of minutes. He's responsible for probably a decent chunk of maybe their relative five-on-five struggles relative to what we saw last year anyway.

I don't know. It's weird to me, and it's like maybe it's a bit. bit nitpicky because again we're at the margins fourth liner and brian straight but again like you know how we talked about with tampa bay and a couple other teams like when you're in a situation where you're expected to at the minimum probably reach the second round you're going to get nipicked like this like you're supposed to have a roster that's well built out and your coaching staff is supposed to be in the top half of the league and i don't know it's the i guess this kind of gets into the i the subject of where we're at with this team which is they're good they're not super great and i don't

know, like, I just, I can't, can you envision any scenario where they get out of, like, the east or am I, I just like, I don't even feel like it would break, it would luckily break for them, because I just feel like, Washington is such a better team and, and, I, like, I don't even know if I'd pick, honestly, I don't even know if I'd take the Islanders over Tampa Bay, you know, in a series right now, yeah, yeah, no, it's, I mean, I could envision it just in the sense that, I mean, the playoffs, like, if you just give yourself a position, like, take advantage of those, of those random bounces and injuries and whatnot, like, there's definitely a, a, blueprint there for them sneaking out of the east, but it's just unlikely based on what we've

seen. And those upper echelon teams are just kind of more well-rounded. And you mentioned a guy like Brian Strait, like, yeah, every team has like that one guy that they randomly have like some sort of fetish with and just like refuse to acknowledge that he's not as good as they think he is. And Brian Strait's pretty clearly that guy for them. And I don't know, it's like he's on the third pairing. It's ultimately not an entire disaster. But we, we're, we, we're, we're, we're with boy checkout right now, like it just hurts that they don't have the depth there to fill those minutes and you're seeing a guy like Brian Strait and Adam Pelick or whatever being asked to do stuff that they're not just, they're not capable of doing and it's

definitely hurting their cause. So ultimately, where do they go from here? Because we're in a spot now with the Islanders where I feel like we should be. And the reason why I say, the reason why I made the point of, could we expect this team to get out of the East is because honestly, and this is, again, a similar refrain. After Washington, like, what's the team to be scared of in the East right now? There just isn't. There's so much opportunity for a team like the Islanders or Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh or Rangers or Montreal.

It's a modern miracle to elevate and become, like, the other team that's really challenging to come out of the East. And, like, I feel like the Islanders may be fitted as well as any team after Washington to kind of take the next step. But, like, we were almost 50 games into the season, and I'm just, every game I watch, I'm like, yeah, they're okay, they're good, but never, like, blown away by their performance. Well, I mean, they're, you know, you ask what they do kind of moving forward, and it's fascinating, because obviously, Opozo will be a free agent, and we'll see whether they're going to pony up for him.

I still think they won't. But then, you know, this Travis Hamannick thing is sort of looming where it's quieted down a little bit here, and it seems more likely than not that they're going to wait until the summer to finally kind of reach a resolution there. but it seems pretty clear that he's probably not going to be with them to start next season, unless like something drastic happens. And then, you know, you have a guy like Franz Nielsen who's also an impending UFA, and he's already in his 30s kind of sneakily, I guess. I don't know, he's definitely been around forever, but it feels weird to say that he's already in his 30s.

He does not feel in, he does not feel 30. He feels like, he's 31, I think, yeah. And it's weird, right? But I guess when you kind of take a step back and think about it, like, he's been around forever, and he's just been this really, really reliable second center for them. And I don't know, he's probably going to get paid quite a bit too, and you could easily see them balking at that price tag. So it's weird because they have so many young pieces that, you know,

even if they lose some of these guys in free agency and they trade away Hamannick and don't necessarily get full value back for him, like I don't think they're going to just fall apart. But it is sort of a make or break season for them here. And it's just fascinating to see how they approach this deadline. I think that you Well, let me interject here because you mentioned Travis Hamanick there and

could they be, could we be in a dark horse sleeper trade proposal where I know Winnipeg's turning, I believe Winnipeg was one of the destined locations or removed locations for Travis Hamadick. Could the islanders be a dark horse dust and bufflin trade rental in a potential

Travis Hammondick swap where they lose a defenseman but they're in the playoff hunt obviously They need someone intermediate replacement back there. And Dustin Bufflin makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons. And not the least of which is they could very aggressively go to resign him because I think he is a decent resign candidate for this team, for any team, really. So you talk about, you know, they're obviously in a spot where they need to trade a top four defensemen. And they are expecting to make a deep run this year. And I wonder if they could put together a some sort of deal where they can.

they can ease the Travis Hammondick issue by trading him to Winnipeg. And then you would need it to break right so that Winnipeg and Buffalo, the talks kind of broke down a bit or Winnipeg just soured on the idea of signing him long term. But like, how would we like the Islanders with Bufflin back there? I mean, yeah, they'd obviously skyrocket in terms of the future outlook. And I don't know, we haven't really discussed it on this podcast since. I feel like it's been a few weeks. But by all accounts, it sounds like the Jets are sort of rethinking their plan

they're going to try and re-sign Bufflin first as opposed to Lad, which is what we advocated for, but is definitely kind of a shake-up from what their original plan was. Yep. So what I understand, and not to go full-blown Winnipeg here, is what I've understand is that I don't even know if it's a, I would assume it's a both thing that they've really liked what Bufflin's done again this year. And, you know, he's just been such an impact player for that team for years now. It's kind of obvious. But I also think part of it is they're cooling a bit.

on Andrew Ladd. And he's kind of had a weird season. So if that's the case, if they're turning their attention to Bufflin, then I still think there's a shot, a chance that Winnipeg, obviously trades him. And maybe that's the case for all pending UFAs, especially teams who are on the outside looking in on the playoff picture. So I still think we have to keep Bufflin's name out there. But then Andrew Ladd becomes an interesting trade rental piece, right?

Like, I don't know if he's a guy you want to commit to real long term. But, you know, I still think he's a pretty productive top six winger. He's obviously very reliable defensively. He's shown an ability to score. Drew Ladd's another enteristic trade candidate, but I don't know, I'm still now that I've got it in my head, I'm just still salivating about Dustin Bufflin at Barclays.

Yeah, man. Well, I'm kind of curious with both of those guys, like what they would fetch, assuming that there was no, like, predetermined contracts extension in place because, you know, teams might be very wary of kind of giving up a couple of very useful young assets for a few months of either of these guys. But at the same time, there's, with this loser point,

there's so few actual sellers on the market come deadline day that, like, you'd think that both of those guys are going to be pretty much at the top of the class in terms of guys that are available. And if a team becomes desperate, which someone always does near the end of February, like, they could make it, make a killing off of those two guys. So I don't know, it's interesting. Because I think we both, we're both in agreement that the Jets are a pretty good team, but in that central division, like it seems pretty unrealistic for them to even make any real tangible noise this season, right? Yeah, they are very much on the outside looking in.

So it's a weird spot for them. I do think, though, that an Islander's jet's trade could be a very real thing. And maybe it doesn't include Bufflin. Maybe it's just the Hammondick aspect of it. But I know the idea or the teams that he's limited to in a potential trade, Travis Hammondick. I don't know. I think there was talk about him maybe expanding his list a bit, but he had like, I don't know, and a preliminary list of teams that he would like to go to to get closer to home or something to that effect.

And Winnipeg obviously was like the number one team in that group. And just because they are a team that is a seller, that makes more sense for a team that is a buyer that is looking for a immediate replacement place like a immediate replacement piece like the islanders are. So something to keep in the back of our minds, I guess. Okay, so I have two more points on the islanders. and I know people were probably, Islanders fans were screaming at their, whatever device they're using to listen to this podcast where we promise we're going to adopt Islanders and we just spent five minutes talking about the Jets randomly. No, come on, we're close almost to 20 minutes now.

Doesn't it still feel a little weird to say that one of the saving graces for this team has been the goaltending after all of those years where they just had like this obscure collection of guys that weren't any good at all? And now they have two guys that are both well above, average and over 920 each and they can roll either of them on any night and feel pretty confident they'll give him a chance to win like i don't know it just still feels like weird to even say that based on where this team was for so many years there with the dpeachro era and whatnot i feel like gerald hawak's in particular has just kind of floated in this everyone used to

think like yeah maybe he's not that good when he left montrealca and then it was like you know everyone was like you know the stats people were much more optimistic about his long-term career i would say Even noting that the brief run he had in Montreal was insane. And I think he had like a little bit of a valley in the following season after leaving Montreal. And then immediately people got cool and everyone was like, I still think he walks a pretty good buy candidate here. And he's really carved out a really nice career for himself. And I think it kind of goes unnoticed because he's played in St. Louis and he's played on the island.

And he's really been one of the more reliable, steady goaltenders around the league. and that it is, as you said, it has been a blessing for the Islanders, a team that has been looking for this so sorely for so many years. He, again, this is a perfect example of why you shouldn't get too high or shouldn't get too low on a player because there were stretches in Halak's earlier parts of his career where he looked unbelievable and then sometimes he looked not unbelievable. And as it played out long term, he's actually just been in above average goal. that can get work pretty much anywhere. So this has worked out well for the Islanders. It is still weird to say that they have the sound goaltending that that they, that's the one thing that they can bet on going into the post season.

I mean, remember when they had in the Baca of, like, it was like, this team's a really good 5-on-5 possession team and there's a lot of underlying stuff to like here, but their goaltending is just submarining them. And this year it hasn't been that. And yeah, Halak is, remember when he was traded to Buffalo and then there? the caps traded for him to play him instead of Braden Holby? Like, I like Halak, but looking back at that sequence of transactions, that was just like a bizarre couple moves there.

Like I barely, I barely remember him in Buffalo. Yeah. Well, I don't think he actually even played for them. I think it was like one of those things. No, I barely remember that aspect of the trade. Like, I just feel like he jumped to Washington. I don't even remember that part of the acquisition being him going to Buffalo. Okay, second and final thing about the Islanders,

their third jerseys, the black ones. Where do you stand on those? Because I know that they're a pretty polarizing topic. Some people seem to love them. And then I myself really passionately dislike them. And I feel like no one is like, they're okay. They're whatever. Like people, I mean, it's the internet.

Obviously everyone has a really strong take. It has to be extreme on either end. But what do you think about those jerseys? As someone who is severely, cripplingly, colorblind, I am always pro-black because I can look at the TV and say, oh, they're wearing black uniforms. So that is my well-documented, very thorough analysis of the islanders black uniforms is I can see them.

I know what they are. So therefore, I like them. I'm not a sweater snob. I'm definitely not a color snob. So if you give me something crazy, as long as I can tell what it is, we should do a pod, though, on worst jerseys we've seen, maybe currently. Did you like the fisherman jersey? I love it.

Yeah, the fisherman jersey was great. That's a classic. That's, that's a... We probably should do that one day. I mean, people seem to really enjoy the shows where we just randomly rank stuff. So I guess people love lists in general, right? So it's one of those...

With totally random criteria that changes on the fly. Yeah. The other thing is, I just wish that they would wear that fisherman jersey, like, I don't know, 30 home games a year minimum. It was the most unique jersey

that the league had seen in like 30 years. and then they had to kill it and just be fun killers. That was, I grew up watching it. Come on, come on. Yeah, no, I agree with that. All right, well, I think we... Hold on, one last thing on Islanders. Do we want to see an Islander's Penguin series in the first round?

I guess so, but I really want to see an Islander Rangers series. Do we want to see an Islanders Rangers series? Huh? I like Islanders Rangers. I feel like Islanders Rangers' Capitals Penguins would be the best, way to break that first round out. But then, then, see, I'm discounted Carolina. Will it still be Billed as Ovechkin versus Crosby, or do you think it'll be Ovechman

just walking? But it'll be Holt B versus Flurry. Yeah. I forgot, though, in that group of four teams, I omitted Carolina. Carolina is obviously going to finish like second or third at this pace. So. What about the flyero, man? You got to.

Oh, I don't know. They're charging. They're pulling like 1.1 points per game right now. So they are really progressive forward here. No, I was just curious because I know we had seen the Islanders Penguin Series in the past, and it was insane. And Flurry was heel kicking pucks into the back of his net. And it was great entertainment for Twitter, but I don't know if I want to see it again.

No. Yeah, I don't know. I'll be cool with that either way. As long as we don't see another Capitals Rangers series, I'm pretty cool. What's the worst first round we are looking at right now? Oh, man. I don't even know. Like the worst matchup?

Do we can't, Arizona, anything, right? But they're not going to be. Yeah. I think, yeah, I think the 2-3 Pacific Division, whoever it is, is going to be the worst, right? What if it's Anaheim, San Jose? Oh, that would be good. Yeah, no, that's fair.

I don't know. I guess there aren't really any terrible ones. Like, maybe the 2-3 Atlantic could be kind of whatever. Like, I don't know, Detroit, Boston is what's shaping up right now. You could very realistically have a Detroit, Boston, Detroit, Florida. Yeah, see, that's kind of whatever. I don't really care. much about that one. Do you remember 2012 when it was New Jersey, Florida, in the Eastern Conference?

Yeah, and Adam Henrique scored the double overtime walk-off goal. Wow. Has L.A. ever had an easier road, or has any team ever had an easier road than the Kings that year? Well, they play the Coyotes as well in the conference. It was like coyotes. It was like a list of like 47% coursey teams straight through the Western Conference. It was not, and then the Kings are like buzz saw on 58% basically for 60 straight games and going into the playoffs on there, everyone was like, The kings are just world beaters. They are not an easy. They are more like a two seed.

And they just pummel everyone on the way. And then, of course, everything breaks favorably for them too, which that's like the moral of the story in the playoffs, right? You got to play good and you got to get lucky. Man, can you believe, like, looking back at it now, that Coyotes versus Blackhawk series where Crawford just completely fell apart and I think they lost like two or three overtime games there. And Mike Smith was like rocking like a 930-something, say, percentage.

And you look back of that now and that's like one of the only times Blackhawks have lost in the past, however many years, it's like, try explaining that one to someone who wasn't around for that time. It's like, yeah, it's hockey can be kind of weird sometimes. And, you know, sometimes these playoff series are just completely random flips of the coin and just who knows what's going to happen. We're off on a tangent here. But now that you mentioned Mike Smith, Mike Smith, if I had to think about it,

two of the most underrated seasons, I think, by a player in the last, I don't know, call it eight, nine, ten years, at least when the stats there has been involved, Mike Smith, That year he just went absolutely off. And maybe, like, I just feel like it's become underrated because he's so bad now. And I have no idea how this goaltender was that good back then. But he had a season, I think it was that year. I think it was 2011, 2012, I want to say, where he was like, you couldn't score on a period for like 60 games. The other season being Joe Pavelski, I think, 2013, 2014.

Like, he kind of, everyone was like, oh, yeah, Joe Thornton, Joe Thornton. and I'm not taking anything away from Joe Thornton. He was amazing. He has been for a decade plus. But Pavelsky one year had like 41 goals or something. It was just like, oh, yeah, this guy had 41 goals. And I'm like, what the hell, man? I'm like, no one scores 40 anymore.

Yeah. Pavelsky is actually good at hockey. Like this Mike Smith season, I'm looking at it right now. He's 67 starts and he won 38 of them and he had a 930 say percentage. That's nuts. That's just such a random outlier. And he had 16 playoff games and had 944 say percentage in those 16 playoff games. like, what the hell?

That is so ending. What's the Povelsky? I know Povelsky's good, but he really had an unbelievable year. I think it was two seasons ago. Go fact-check me. Yeah, I'm going to look it up right now. This is good evidence for anyone who thinks that I sit on my computer and do these things.

I'm always on the fly. So that's why once or twice a time. Yeah, it was 2013, you're going to get 41 goals, right? Yep, 41. Yeah, but the thing is, he scored 37 goals a year after. Damn, he's so good. And this year, he probably gets 10-40 again. What's his pace right now?

He's 24 and 47, so he's, like, close to 40 again. I feel like this is super random considering, I mean, it makes sense, right? Like, he's playing so much with Joe Thornton on the top unit power play, and he's sort of their go-to guy now, and he's the captain and whatnot, and he's playing a ton, and it makes sense. But just, like, if you look at the start of his career, he was, like, for five, six, seven years, he was consistently, like, a 20, 25 goal guy at tops, and then all of a sudden, it's just, like, this huge spike.

The Joe Thornton effect, right? I mean, that's Joe Thornton, one day when he retires, there's going to be a long, someone's going to do the analytic piece of Joe Thornton's career in a nutshell and how one player, you can like lump him and maybe Patrice Bergeron in it and you can show, hey, look, these two players are why what the stats people do, it matters. Because one of the things like, oh, you know, people can say, oh, you can't quantify what a Patrice Bergeron does. and I know you've read that at least 100 times because I have two. And you still see it from time and time. I'm like, yeah, you can. He's like one of the most dominant players in the league. No one generates any shots when he's on the ice.

There's a reason for that. Yeah. No, absolutely. And I think Thornton is one of those guys in peak Henrik City and also falls into this camp where they were like, you know, we all often make fun of shot quality and kind of people that are outliers in terms of possession. But like we have enough games now where like Henrik City and Jol, Thorne where the two guys that just like pretty much anyone that played with them was probably

going to have a career season like that just how freaking good they were at at putting them in perfect spots to score it makes you uh I have to say the Anjikopatar deal what percent of that can you put on new age stats because like I feel I feel like Copart would have gotten paid because he's a very good player but I feel like the new stats have really quantified or explained why he is one of the best players in the world and not just a very good sentiment. I genuinely feel like 10 years ago we would have Kopitar as a very good sentiment because our test would be, even numbers people, our test would be, well, what are his scoring rates look like? And Copatars always made a good score, not a great one.

And some of that's suppressed, I still argue to this day by LA's system. But that said, if you look at Copatar's numbers, counting numbers-wise, yeah, he's good. You look at his underlying numbers 5 and 5, his shot differentials, the scoring chance differentials, where shots come from when he's on the ice for and against. Like the guy is, he's Patrice Berger on West. And I feel like if he signed this contract 10 years ago, I don't think he gets paid nearly as much relatively relative to go ahead. I agree with you, but the one counter is just how much playoff success they've had while he's been there.

Like, I feel like that's a mitigating factor where people could be like, oh but this guy is just like this guy's a winner his team's win right like it'd be more interesting no but that you know what thought that's not a fair it is a fair point but it's not a fair point because that's a different that's a different explanation so i let me let me rephrase it though so it is something to consider if we were creating his contract if we were forecasting his contract pre 2007 and post 2007 and we were only considering numbers we would not have offered copatar as much as we did or as much as the la tuesday Kings did now. I guess that's what I'm trying to say. And I feel like this is a good example of what

the new stats can do to kind of explain how dominant a player is. And like no one in their right mind is ever arguing Anja Kopitar is not a great player anymore because it's like, yep, he's got the points. But more importantly, like no one does anything when he's on the ice. He's just so freaking dominant. I just, I would love to know what he would actually get if we can model this. If we can model it just based on, oh, yeah, his points. This is what he scored. in the last five years. What kind of contract do you give? I would love to see that. Yeah, well, definitely be less for sure. Hey, one final thing before we go. This is sort of the Long Island addition of the podcast. So I did want to quickly mention just totally out of the blue

Kyle Palmieri because I remember, I think it was this past weekend where you commented on a tweet from this summer where Bob Murray kind of said that he was trading Kyle Palmieri because he thought he'd have a 20-goal season and he wanted to get ahead of the curve because he didn't think he'd be able to re-sign him this summer. 20 goals. He has 20 goals, yeah. took him like 40 something games to get there. I never saw that. I mean, I have to say, I never saw 20 in 40 games coming. I saw 20 was a possibility.

I didn't see, like, he's pacing for like, what, 35 at this point? It's ridiculous. Well, none of those guys just needed an opportunity, right? I don't, yeah, I mean, in some ways, yes, but sometimes it's so hard to tell with those tweener players. And when I say tweener, I mean, you know he's an NHL or you just don't know to what degree. It's like, yeah, you could say he needed more opportunity. You could say that for a lot of guys, though, and some guys pan out and some guys don't. So maybe it is true.

Maybe it is a fair thing to say. But I don't know, he was one of those guys where it was like, ah, you could, it's like throwing a semi-guided dart. You know it might land on the dartboard, but you're just not exactly sure where. So that was a huge, huge, huge, huge sign for the devils and, or a huge get for the devils. He's blown up in a big way. And the, the interesting thing is I would like to hear now from Anaheim perspective how they feel about to palmieri do this. Oh my god. I think he has more goals combined than like Kessler gets lap and soberberg or something and those guys are making like 15 million dollars

more than him so I'm sure they're not too thrilled about it. Um yeah and let me just interject too. Once you're there was a lot of pushback on the Kyle Palmieri is not from Long Island because he's New Jersey raised. He was born in Smithtown New York. That is a Long Island boy. A good Long Island boy. If hockey night in Canada, if hockey night in Canada can shill for Ontario. I can shill for Long Island. So if you're born there or raised there, you're a Long Island boy forever. It's quite a take. I'm sure there was a lot of debate about where Kyle Palmieri's from and who gets credit for him. I'm letting the 18 Islanders fans know that you've got a fan in me. Yeah. Well, clearly, we just did 20-something minutes on their team.

So it took a few weeks, but we finally got there and I think that's all that really matters. All right, man, I think this is going to be our last show before the All-Star break. Are you going to watch the All-Star game? No, definitely not. Are you going to watch? Who are these people playing at the All-Star break? Can we talk about this? I have no idea.

Like, just random country people? Like, I don't know. Literally, the NHL sent out of press release. I went through the names. It was like, they could have wrote John Doe, John Doe. John Doe. Oh, yeah, I would have recognized him before I recognized any of these people. It's like Scott Mayfield, Brett Pesci.

Who are these guys? They're not real people. Why does the NHL feel like it needs to do this? Because it's in that. I get it. There's like a country. In Nashville, I get the country aspect. They get the country angle.

But like I feel like they have embedded the entire weekend in country music. Like if you look like the All Star Games, Celebrity coaches, like Drake and a whole bunch of other. Like people that matter. I'm not like like A-listers. And then you get the NHL and it's guys with like 14,000 followers on Twitter. Like you can just you can just pull egg people. who've got Spambot accounts, if that's the case. You really can't get past this Twitter follower thing, huh?

I can't. Come on, you're not a celebrity. You have 14,000 followers. All right, man. Yeah, so we'll get back next week. I'm definitely not going to watch any of that. Take some time off from the league and kind of enjoy other things in life. NBA.

There's a Cyrus. There are the Cyrus. Oh, I should have said. I'm back in my old digs. Dude, this is getting ridiculous. This is like the fourth person that's been buried on there. But, hey, everyone that's listening has auditory proof that I was sitting at home doing this podcast while this was happening, so I couldn't have been responsible for the Sirens.

There's no way you live in Vancouver. This is, it's like, it's like the way. I live in Detroit. I live in Detroit. Yeah, it's the Detroit of. Detroit. You have Red Wings fans caten at us there. Before we get out of here, let me give a quick shout out to Tommy and Thomas Imbrigiata.

who donated to the show. And sources tell me the Hockey Piedocast might actually have a real sponsor coming out of the break, so we'll see about that. All right, man. That's going to do it for a while. Subway. It's some way.

Eat fresh, think fresh. Anyways, we'll be back sometime next week, so check that out. And enjoy your All-Star Break, man. All right, man. You too. The HockeyPedioCast, online at HockeyPedocast.com. Subscribe on iTunes, SoundCloud, or follow on Twitter at Dim Filipovich and at Travis Yost.