The Hockey PDOcast - First Month Hot Takes, Panic Level for Underperforming Teams, and What We've Been Watching

Episode Date: November 3, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to discuss their panic level for teams that have been underperforming expectations, some hot takes emanating from the first month of regular season hockey, and what's been catching their eye while watching games this past week.  If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the HockeyPediocast. My name is Demetri Filipovich and joining me for another edition of the Sunday special, my good buddy Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? I'm still recovering from the Game 7 Blue Jays loss. I'll be honest with you, the Blue Jays World Series, which was phenomenal against the Dodgers. Kudos to the back-to-back champs. did take me away from some of my usual Game Center Live obsessiveness over the course this week. Has it been called Game Center Live in the past five years? No, also we are a SportsNet property. So I'm like actively ducking. I'm mad at our overlords for failing to bring it home in Game 7.

No, I'm sports net now. I just in my head, you know, I'm so used to thinking of it as GameCenter Live. But my SportsNet now junkieism has been on something of a hiatus. But I was still catching up, obviously, still watching what I could and thought it was a pretty interesting week. There were some pretty heavyweight tilts this week, which I felt like kind of defined what we saw in terms of league-wide stories. And then you had some stuff like Macklin Celebrini, just absolutely throwing haymakers all week that was a lot of fun and might complicate like what hockey Canada's sort of roster projection and roster consideration might look like. So I'm sure we'll have a lot to unpack. We're so back. What a monologue right off the top.

Something to define last year's Sunday specials, but you're just coming in hot with monologues. Especially once we get into the playoffs and I've just got immediate takes to unload. Yes. Yeah, I'm always like, how's it going, man? And then you just give me seven minutes. And then I'm mad about nothing for no reason. Yeah. So we don't really have, you know, last week we had the gimmick of our watchability rankings, which is obviously a really fun exercise. We don't necessarily have anything planned that extravagantly this week. We thought we kind of bounce around, talk about stuff that caught our eye over the past week, especially, you know, we had the frozen frenzy earlier in the week that created a couple of those gems you were describing there. Absolutely.

You wanted to play some early season overreactions where, you know, it's November now. So we're through the first month of the season. We've got about, what, 12, 13 games from every team thus far to work with. So we're getting a nice little sample where it's still certainly early. And I feel like context in terms of strength of schedule. injuries and like notable absences are going to play an outsized role in how teams have performed in the early going. Yet we're getting some real substance now to at least figure out where we're out with some of this stuff. So where do you want to start with?

Do you want to talk about teams that caught our eye or notable performances or do you want to do some overreaction right out of the game? I say let's do overreactions in that way we can get into some of the stuff that we're excited about, worried about, you know, and really overreactions I feel like need to be true hot takes, right? just as a rule setting before we launch into this endeavor. I think we really got to come with the hot takes. Okay. I want to start on the negative side of the ledger. And I know that they were the Toronto sports team that managed to win on Saturday night.

But nonetheless, I'm watching this Maple Leafs team play. And I think we are overreaction number one for me. Can you imagine an Atlantic. division playoff bracket that doesn't feature any of Toronto, Tampa Bay or Boston. Well, Tampa Bay is really, since our conversation, really stabilized. They played four or five games that looked much more reminiscent of what we saw from them last regular season. And they hung on and beat the mammoth on Sunday.

They did, yep. So they've bounced back. You know, the Leafs got the win on Saturday in Philly and finally had a bit of an offensive explosion. Let's say I forget four or five goals, the hilarious moment at the end with the scrum along the wall and then Anthony Stoller is coming and grabbing his former teammate, Trevor Zegrois, just by the collar essentially and pulling him out and taking him out of the club. And Zegra's just being a very willing participant was awesome.

The most important development for the Leafs in that game was, I believe that was awesome. At least his second five-on-five goal he scored. Yeah. This season, on a ton of short. shot volume and one that was very similar to types of goals we were seeing from him when he was pushing 70

which was from distance picking a corner beating a goalie cleanly he just has not been doing that for essentially a full calendar a year yeah like since like early February of last season so that was probably the most alarming thing on a team wide level

I find a lot of the foot speed stuff incredibly alarming and that's manifesting as we talked about in the watchable rankings a little bit in a lot of those, the battle metrics, right? Like their forechecking is way down. Their ability to sustain cycles and get to the interior and zone is way down.

They're like seemingly just a step or too slow on every single one of these battles they're engaging in. Teams are just breaking out cleanly against them and then feasting off the rush. What Columbus did, no one was watching because of the World Series. What Columbus did in that game in Columbus earlier this week was it should be terrifying where they were just like teeing off with odds. man rushes against them. And so I do think it's, I think that's pretty alarming. Yeah. I mean, I was, I was debating whether or not to go with the full changing of the guard hot take or the

just the Leafs don't look to me to be a playoff team hot take. But I wanted to go global on it. I, you know, Tampa Bay has stabilized, but if you watch that mammoth game, I mean, I do think they're having some of the same problems as Toronto and the East right now when I look at sort of what this playoff picture could look like, some of the teams that could upset the apple cart, whether it's, you know, the devil's finally arriving as the young team that was promised to us two years ago. And then, you know, because development's not always linear, they sort of plateaued, whether it's the way that Detroit Red Wings are playing that high event hockey, obviously we know what the Montreal Canadians can do with their weapons, but it's even teams like Ottawa and it's teams

like Columbus, right? It's teams like Buffalo, who, you know, are tied with the Maple Leafs and the standings, but I think have a degree of juice. to them where, and I mean, we've already seen it this season. What in terms of how they can blitz a team like the Maple Leafs, the Maple Leafs almost give off a vibe to me of like the end of Mike Sullivan 10-year penguins. Where it's not that they're structurally unsound, right? It's not that I think they're doing anything incorrect tactically or like, like I don't think this is on Barube at all.

I just worry that they don't have the foot speed to play a full 200-foot game against some of the teams that have decidedly more speed, more juice than they do. I think it's on Brube in the sense that clearly he had some input as the coach of this team since coming in on the type of player that he would prefer they go out and get, and then you look at a lot of what they've done since then and the fact that it's kind of in Congress with what they theoretically should be getting out of those guys in terms of preferred playing style. Also, you know, should note I haven't seen any updates since the game on Saturday. I'm not sure if you have, but what happened to Chris Hanna really just sucked.

Like that was devastating. Seems like he was released from hospital anyway today. Yeah, so he was stretched out the ice after kind of this awkward collision with Madamey Mitch ov around the blue line where he seemed like, I don't want to say blindsided because that implies that there was something like nefarious. He just basically was skating backwards. Mitch Cove was standing at the line and bumped into him and that was his first game back. Yeah, it was way more collision than him.

From a concussion as well. And so whenever a guy like that, I think Max Domey had actually talked about this. oppressor recently. We're just so used to seeing Chris Hannev, who's the ultimate warrior in the HL. Yeah, bounce up. Just get up and dust himself off from no matter how narlary a collision or shoplock it was. And when a guy like that stops getting up after these types of collisions, I think that's incredibly upsetting to see. And so hopefully he's going to be okay, obviously still plays such a massive role in this team. I think about what we were saying last year during that seven game series against the Panthers, how he was just going back and just taking so much

punishment from panthers forecheckers every time to make a play and allow his partners to get out of the zone. And so not having him is going to really change things. So I don't know, I think it's almost more interesting rather than you kind of frame this as a negative one. I think celebrating what we're seeing from the upstarts, like the habs, the sabers who I believe have points in six straight games now. The habs are first in the league or tie for first in points percentage. The blue jackets are heading into today's game first in the league and five-on-five goal share. The islanders as we've talked about, are just completely transformed their playing style, even if, you know, the results might not be there yet this season.

I think that's just far more exciting for me. And I almost think, like, the hot take is that we should be talking more about those teams and how fun they've been in the early going. I like that. I like that a lot. I like the positive spin on it. You can even throw in, too, I think, the competitive balance in the east, right? Where there isn't, you know, this, it doesn't feel very stratified, right?

it feels like any team can lose two in a row and win two in a row and rocket up the standings at the moment. You know, going into Sunday's slate, there was no team below 500 point percentage. I mean, that's wild, especially in contrast with, you know, I think what we're seeing in the West where there are teams that are just so have and some teams that are very have not. Yeah. I'm curious for a take on the habs, because we've talked about them from a watchability entertainment perspective. as I said, they have a 9 and 3 record right now. You could look at it in both ways, I think, right? The first is they have 7-1-goal wins, which leads the league.

I believe they're 5-0 and 0-3 on 3-0-2-0. Now, when you have Cole Cofield and Nick Suzuki and what they do in those situations, I would necessarily say that's unreasonable, although obviously having five wins already in that format is quite high, and especially some of these ones have been very dramatic, come from behind wins late, right? Where they're down one, they pull the goalie, they score in tide, and then they win it in the extra frame.

Yet on the other, you look, and only Carolina has trailed less often than they have. They're top five in amount of time they've actually spent playing with the lead. The top line is just despicably nasty right now with what they're doing. You're seeing growth and strides and him just taking over certain shifts from Ivan Demitov much more than you were early in the season. and a lot of the weak links they had last year when they made that spirited run have been answered so far. And so part of me is thinking, all right, well, it's been a pretty soft schedule so far. A lot of these kind of quote unquote unsustainable come from behind wins.

And yet there is something so inspiring about this team when you watch them. And the fact that a lot of the drivers are guys we'd expect to continue creating this sort of success for them. So I don't know. What's your mileage on with them right now in terms of the record versus? some of the stuff that might be a little deceiving and where it ultimately comes out or that's out to. Yeah, I mean, I'd just say that I don't know that they've arrived as like a contender tier team, which the early results would suggest they are, right? That I think is probably a little bit overheated. But I think they've arrived as a credible playoff level team. I don't

think they're picking their teeth with anybody five on five at the moment. You know, they still do some stuff that I'm curious to see how it holds up. You know, even their extreme possession emphasis, some of those like five-man breakouts, they do starting from beneath the goal line. You know, some of that stuff, I'm curious to see how that sort of plays in the playoffs over time, right? Just because it's so different than what we've seen win, right?

Like, it's so different than, I mean, the most possession-based team we've seen win in the, the last few years, obviously, Colorado. And they don't play like that, right? Like, it's almost a slow motion version of that with a heavy emphasis on skill, and they have the skill to pull it off most nights. And I find it a ton of fun to watch. Like, it's kind of throwback East West, but, you know, with a contemporary feel.

So there's some stuff that I'm buying on the HABs, but I don't know that I'm buying them as, like, a team that's going to last at the absolute top of the division or be a president's trophy. contender this year. I think, you know, some of the heroics are going to die out. Some of the one goal win results that they're piling up will revert or revert to the mean. And so, but man, I just look like there's so many outs here.

I mean, Montembow's come down to earth, but Dobesh has been incredible. You know, their depth up and down the lineup, there's, you know, players who haven't even been healthy. and it just doesn't seem to matter. You know, I actually think some of their injuries like thrusting Zach Bulldoch into a larger role, right? I mean, that was one thing I was talking to, like Harmon Dial, he does the breakouts list at the athletic,

and we were debating Zachary Boldook, and I was like my issue with, you know, I think Zach Baldook's an awesome player. Yeah, he broke out last year. He broke out last year. Yeah. But the issue of him going to another tier for me was like, where does he fit on that Havs power play?

But now, you know, with Lion-A's injury and him moving up. And it just feels like they've got those answers kind of up and down. You know, I just feel like they have a lot of margin for error, which prevents me from being really, like, bearish on some of what's unsustainable about them, just because, you know, if Dobesh Springs League, Montemot is probably going to start to bounce back.

They've got the sick goalie in the American League. Like, they've just got so many, so much talent that's accumulated that I'm pretty excited about sort of seeing themselves, problems even when things start to not go their way. Yeah, there's a certain like dramatic endings that you that are really fun in the moment but you don't want to necessarily be a calling card of yours in terms of like a disproportionate amount of your wins relying on that sort of stuff because there can be more variance involved. But to your point, in terms of the outs, like we spoke about the top unit powerplay since they put Demidov up and

we saw that on full display last weekend here in Vancouver. They've created four goals in 1025 so far with him on that top unit. Um, the, give and go, he wound up finishing on to tie up that game on Saturday against Ottawa before they won in overtime with executing high in the zone, kind of isolating the defender, passing the give and go with Hudson, I believe, and then getting it back and ripping it home. That was awesome to see Nick Suzuki has an 11-game point streak, 16 assists in that time. He leads the league in points since the Four Nations break last year. And so there's just so much stuff to love there.

Yeah, and Demadov to me too is the one piece that I'm sort of most interested in from the perspective of looking at them as like a team that's not exactly mauling opponents five on five but could get to another gear. Like Demadov's play driving ability is nonexistent at this stage of his career. But if you were to tell me that like after January, you know what I mean? Like there was a 30 game stretch where Demadov began to drive play, you know, at a high end level. I'd buy that because everything about his intelligence, like, even his, you know, even his like defensive play is awareness away from the puck, his work rate. Like I don't think this is a guy who's just going to be an all offense guy once he sort of is, you know, ready or is like grows into a man in this league.

And so, you know, even some of the holes in their five-on-five game are things that I feel like are going to flip as some of their younger players gain. experience with him being sort of the first guy at spotlight in that way. And also we talk about the top teams, the abs, a team you referenced earlier, kind of when they leveled up and became the team that ultimately wound up winning a Stanley Cup even years before that, though, they were able to ratchet their 5-1-5 play up to this certain year when they had their five best players out there, right? Essentially the McKinnon line with the Tabe's McCar pairing.

I'm not going to say, like, that's such a verified error. The haves aren't there yet. But if you look at their splits when they have the Suzuki line out there, there with Noah Dobson right now, it's frightening how much they're dominating and to the extent to which they're just creating at will and tilting the ice. And so I feel like that's really exciting as well because sometimes when you're looking for this early season stuff in terms of what's real and what's not, I feel like there's so much substance to when your main drivers are your best players. And I would expect that to continue. And the degree they've already demonstrated so far is very

legit. You know, we were talking about Caulfield there earlier and the three-on-three finishing and how many overtime goals he's already scored in his career. I don't know if you know if this is a hot take, but I'm just going to segue us away from the haves and talking to a team I want to discuss based on the week they had, the Colorado Avalanche. Cole Coffield's the best three-on-three-three player in the league right now. Nathan McKinnon is the worst three-on-three-three-player in the league right now. I don't understand what's going on, but when him and Marty Natchezer, are out there at 5-15, it's obviously an absolute treat. Like they just have the puck on a string, they're just dancing around, creating looks at will.

And then all of their worst habits in terms of sometimes cheating for offense, not really trying without the puck, kind of taking wide circuitous routes and not getting back with precision, just gets like ramped up to the highest level in OT. And like as soon as they don't have the puck, everything just gets thrown out the window and all of a sudden it's a disaster. to a point where like they already have five OT losses this season. Yeah. And three of them have come in three-on-three play.

And Nathan McKinnon and Marty Natchez in like four minutes have been on the ice for all of those. They've been on the ice for three shots against and all three have gone in because they were glorious opportunities for the other team with those guys essentially out of the picture. And so this is pure nitpicking. But I know that abs fans watching this are losing their minds because it's like the only blemish on their record right now. And the statistical profile is outrageous, right? Like they're the best 5-15 team in the league. The power play since they put in the Trujewski is coming along. They alternated.

They moved Landis-Cog down to the third line, to create like a checking line with jury. The results are awesome. There's nothing wrong with this team except for the fact that getting into three-on-three-o-t, their best players are just costing them points for no reason. The second period that they put together against Vegas this week was so nuts, right?

like was so terrifying. I mean, my overreaction, first of all, I love the three-on-three-spin, but my avs overreaction was just going to be, at this point, we cannot doubt that until Barkov and Kachuk are back, and until Barkov looks like Barkov, this is the best team in hockey.

I mean, for me, it's not even a hot take. That's not even a hot take. Like, it's clear. And that second period where they just absolutely took over against a Vegas team that I absolutely think is elite, like belongs in that conversation. was proof positive for me.

Three on three, I like the idea that there's going to be some phenomenal players who suck three on three. I think that's great. It's like, who was it? Phil Kessel was bad at the shootout. You know, it's like this guy who felt automatic those years in Toronto,

those years on the Hagelin Bonino line in Pittsburgh. He's like automatic off the rush, and then for whatever reason, you put him in the shootout and he wasn't good. The Sadeen twins weren't good in the shootout. Ovechkin wasn't like dominant in the shootout. I always like that. I like the wrinkle that there's certain aspects of the game where, no, no, no.

In fact, Victor Kozlov's the best guy we've got going in this one miniaturized part of the game, which has inflated value because of the way that NHL points are rewarded. So I kind of like that. And realistically, it's not like anything that's going to hold them back. No, of course not. You know? No, definitely not. I just think it's quite a statistical collaboration at least, right?

Where they've played 13 games. They've lost one in regulation. They've already lost five in extra time. I think they're a well-positioned because not only is the team that we thought was going to be their biggest competitor for home ice in the central and the one seed. Dallas, we can talk more about them in hot takes later. I have some serious concerns about what we're seeing. But the 5-1-5 shares for this team, 59% shots, 63% high-danger chances, 60% expected goals,

lead the league, and all of those. They're just, especially with that second third line combo now, bumping Colton up when the Chushkin and Nelson and then having Landisog, Gujarry and Oliveson, you mentioned that are highlighted the second period they played in Vegas,

which was obviously a frightening display from them. How about the first half of the game on Tuesday against the Devils when they went up 5-0 before the Devils punched back?

Punch back, and that was awesome to see from them as well on the road, but I mean, the gear they can hit in some of these highs. And, you know, they lose the game

in overtime in San Jose, but that was a really fun one. And if anything, came away from that being like, my God, and Macklin Celebrini, what he's doing right now is absolutely obscene as well. Yeah. So, I mean, I want to stick with the abs because I don't want to transition too far away before we talk NACIS extension. Because I feel like that was huge news this week. I think it's got huge ramifications. So I want to start there. But then we got to get into Celebrini more. Marty Natchez and the end of unrestricted free agency. My overreaction to the NACIS deal is good luck, good luck to those teams with Capspace finding smart ways to use it because these guys aren't

getting close anymore. Like these guys aren't getting close. And I think the only real takeaway that teams should have when they peruse the grim list that is the pending UFA class of 2026, knowing that the free agent class of 2027 is likely to be as tough, right? I think the only real takeaway that you've got to have if you're an NHL team at this point is it's never too early to go long. It's never too early to go long. You might as well get your guys done fast and there's multiple reasons for it. But one of them is the market's going to keep resetting despite the sacrifices that guys like McDavid are willing to make. The market's going to keep resetting like the Caprizov deal gets done and then there's sort of like a pendulum that swings back as McDavid and some other guys took deals.

I'd hope that NACHA's signing for, you know, 11.5 sort of is the pendulum swinging back somewhat? Because let's be real, despite what he's doing with McKinnon, this is not a guy with like that superstar, top 10 player in the NHL resume. Yeah, but if he had gone on July 1st, I'm pretty confident he got a 14 or 15. 100%. But the point being, like, I still think when you look at the scoring stats and stuff, like I hope that's the pendulum swinging. Right. And I just think in a world where the cap is going to. keep going up, and in a world where fewer and fewer guys are going to make it to unrestricted free agency,

teams really have to stop doing the bridge deal dance. They have to stop taking chances that their guy could be the guy that wants to test it. Even though very few hockey players want to move their stuff, I think you're increasing your risk profile every time you don't go along with your own guys. And also, you're diminishing the assets that you have to trade. You're diminishing your own flexibility and creating, pressure points where you have to trade as opposed to doing so from a position of strength with some steal of a contract.

So these are all factors that I think are changing rapidly as we go to this environment where talent is more scarce than cap space. Signing guys early to me is one of the huge takeaways from NACIS. And looking at, here's the last reason for it is when you look through that grim list of unrestricted free agents, like, I know it didn't happen despite the hype this summer. But at some point, the list for RFAs is just so much more appealing. And the amount of cap space and the difficulty of using it efficiently is going to amp up. And at some point, like the offer sheet weapon is going to become irresistible to the point that it becomes commonplace.

And in fact, if that doesn't happen this summer, I think the NHLPA should be having serious conversations with their partner. Yeah. I do think, you know, it shouldn't get lost in the shuffle here that for the abs, I just feel like getting this done and not having this hanging over, the season is a massive weight off their shoulders. I was talking about this with Harmon on Friday. I do think a paradigm shift here when you talk to people and just think about this pragmatically, like there was a time where we would constantly think about how teams who aren't competing or aren't going to get full value out of it because this year doesn't really matter for them, we're incentivized to send their top prospects down before they burnt a year of their ELC.

and now we've gotten to the point where if you're a smart team, you almost wish you could just scrap the ELC entirely and just speed up the process to get that guy extension eligible so that you can sign him for eight years and maximize that as opposed to having a weight and then the likelihood that two, three years down the road or if you kick it down even further, they're going to be so much more productive and cost so much more

and have so much leverage on you. And so I feel like that's changing, but don't you think that, I mean, on the one hand, this idea of the imbalance between cap space and talent available is going to theoretically increase even more in future years because the cap is just going to keep going up and teams are going to have a way to fill it and might not even want to necessarily in terms of being sealing teams. But also once this new CBA kicks in, I feel like that's going to change the dynamic a little bit as well because the reason this is happening right now for the most part is every good player is just so incentivized to stay with their current team because they can just offer them stuff that no one else. can and is going to expire on September 17. Yeah. So at that point, like for next summer, for example, I feel like we might see a bit of

that shift there, although some guys, I guess, are going to extend the second they're eligible on July 1st. It might be two years out. Yes. Right? It might take a while for it to. At which point, the cap's going to be, what, 113 and a half? The point being that the emphasis on recruiting is not going away, right?

This is a new world of accumulation. The first sign we got of it was the Panthers keeping all their guys, but. You know, I do think Marty Natchez, who was really like the clear bell of the ball. I mean, now what are we talking about for offensive game breakers poised to hit on restrictive free agency? Panarin and. Well, Panarin's going to be 35. Kempay is going to stay in L.A., I'd imagine. And so then you get to Alex Tuck and Oliver Bjorks and basically next up.

Nice players, right? Yes. But the truth is, is not players that you can plan sort of building around or resetting your franchise around. And, you know, so that, and then, and then you get to things like, okay, well, how do you improve your team on the trade market? And it's like, well, taking dice rolls on old guys, right? Like the Fowler trade, the Truba trade. Like, you know, that, I mean, that's kind of the new reality. But these are becoming guys that you're also paying assets for as opposed to getting paid, right?

We just talked about the haves and a big part of why they were able to turn this thing around so quickly was they were very organized and strategic about using their cap space to take on. what was perceived as bad contracts and then rehabbing the value of guys like Monaghan, for example, doubling down the assets you're getting back and really building this thing up through those means. That's a route that we just saw was eliminated this past summer where even contracts that were previously cap dump type situations that you'd have to attach picks to where all of a sudden now garnering picks coming back to you because they're so valued. And they also, because yes, they actively did it with Monaghan,

but also in contrast with a lot of teams that were like exercising, buyouts on problematic player contracts or whatever. I mean, they didn't overreact and do so on Gallagher or Josh Anderson, for example. And it's like, you know, we're not far away from a world where those guys are also returning assets as opposed to, you know, being contracts that you'd have to pay to get off of or consider buying out. And so, I mean, the whole, like, you know, credit Kent Hughes and Jeff Gordon, but an awful lot of things have come to them as a result of how they approached to this. All right, buddy, let's take our break here.

And then when we jump back in, I'm going to hold you to it. We're going to hold you to. We're going to talk Celebrini. Yes. Because we teased it a little bit. You're listening to the Hockey-Pedio-cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. We are back here on the Hockey-O-Cast, joined by Thomas Drenz, for our Sunday special. Tom, before we went to break, we promised the people were going to talk more about Celebrini.

Watching that game on Saturday afternoon against the abs was really fun. What he's done, the past couple, I'd say, even, right? after a relatively slow start where they just never really had the puck when he was on that he's getting caved a little bit defensively. He's put up some video game-like numbers. He's up to seven goals and 18 points and 12 games. Six goals and seven assists of those have come in this seven game period. Seven penalties drawn.

The sharks are up nine three in 135-on-five minutes with him and Will Smith out there together. I'm not to turn this into a face-off corner, but he's winning 52% of his draws this year, which I do think is a notable step up from when, as you'd expect, a young centerman in the league. He was like 47, 48 last year with some pretty ugly performances along the way in the dot. All of a sudden is becoming a strength of his there to the point where in a win against New Jersey earlier this week, there was a play I forget who was against, but offensive zone draw, he wins it, ties up the opposing centerman, wins possession of the puck, quickly hits Will Smith to the side of the net. He bangs it in and just like an immediate goal that he creates.

out of thin air through that one scale. And then the catch and release, man, on the goal against the abs, was absolutely filthy. Put on a tow drag on. I think it was Brent Burns later on in the game. That was so gnarly as well. Like he's just playing at such a high level right now. It's so fun to watch.

And we're back on. We're worried about the vibes. I'm not anymore. No. What him and Will Smith are doing. We're seeing like little flashes here, there from Michael Mesao whenever he gets an opportunity to get on the ice. He's creating stuff.

as well. I think it's very exciting. It's beyond exciting. I mean, he's just played incredible hockey, you know, and I think my Celebrini hot take would go as follows. I think Celebrini is going to be on the Olympic team. I think they're bringing Celebrini. I think we're going to see that. And I think it's the diligence with which he's defending to. It doesn't show up in the statistics yet. because the sharks are not at that level. But, I mean, you can, you watch him. He's always on the right side of the puck. He's so conscientious.

The effort is not just spent on offense. And then, you know, the way that he creates for himself off of pressure, right? Like off of those stick lifts, off of the work on the wall is just absurd. And it's not a surprise that he's managed to massively improve in the faceoff dot, right? Like, this is a competitor who's clearly why. in a special way to push himself and improve. And you can see that in his game, right? It's, I mean, there's obviously a ton of God-given talent,

but there's also a level of focus and a hunger there that shows in, shows up in how he creates offense, but also shows up in how rapidly he's progressing in a variety of areas that, you know, like, it's, it's precocious to be even 48% at the age of 19 in the NHL. I mean, we don't see it. Yeah. Right? Like faceoffs are an old man's game.

He's going to be taking key faceoffs for Canada at the Olympics at this point. I mean, bumping Crosby out of the draw. I don't know about that, but, you know, it's clear, you know, from the worlds and stuff. You can tell that there, you can tell that he's already got a lot of respect from his peers too, right? I mean, that's a pretty remarkable thing at the age of 19, too. Yeah, I just, I would, I can't even imagine what it's going to look like when it's scaled up in terms of the talent level around him and the environment in terms of just having the puck more often.

Like I mentioned that that catch and release that he scores on against the abs. Like just more opportunities that he's thrust into like that where he hasn't had to do all the heavy lifting in terms of either winning a battle to create possession or carrying it in himself and he can kind of coast in on a pose and get the puck and just immediately rip it past the goalie the way he did there. Like that's going to be scaled up at some point here as the team gets better around him. And so that's just, I mean, the sky is the limit, obviously, from a playmaking perspective, but he's on pace for like nearly 50 goals at this point. I wouldn't necessarily expect that to continue this year yet.

But with that shot making, it's certainly in his future range of outcomes, which is frightening. All right. Here's a hot take for you. Let's talk about the panic meter for some of the West teams because I was on your show, Canucks talk on Friday afternoon as I am every week. and we were talking about this developing playoff race in the West, right, in terms of whether there could be an opening, especially for one of the wild card spots,

because of the fact the teams that had made it last year, most notably the Blues in the Wild, have fallen off so much from a goal suppression and defensive perspective in Minnesota's case. And then, you know, the kings are kind of hanging around, but they're almost the epitome of mid for me at this point where there's just so little to get excited about, even when they do get points or wins from some of these games.

And then the stars are going to be hanging around and certainly when they get healthier up front, I think it's going to be a bit of a different discussion. But for the time being, they're struggling so much offensively at 5-1-5, and I want to talk more about that with you as well. So what are we doing with this race out west right now in terms of our panic level for some of these teams

that have really fallen off to start the year and whether that's going to create an opening for one of these upstarts, like anaheim of course but even a Seattle potentially who's playing competitively yes Chicago sure that could take advantage and you might not be in on that huh you know what I will say in the early going so much of it was PDO driven and I do think there are signs of improvement there where it's not necessarily just entirely reliant on that and so

I think that's certainly encouraging but I think We're getting a little carried away in terms of that outlook for just that this year with them. I think it'll be a bit of a grind. I think you're right. But I also think there's a variety of different takes here. One is it's so compressed in the Western Conference wildcard race. I mean, first of all, by point percentage, right? The Anaheim ducks are actually second in the Pacific.

So while they appear beneath your playoff bar, if you look at the NHRA, dot com standings. The truth is, is that they're, you know, ahead of the oilers and the crackin by point percentage at this point of the season with a plus four goal differential, right? I mean, at the same time that, you know, St. Louis and Minnesota and Vancouver, struggling out of the gate, L.A., struggling out of the gate, creates an opening four in Anaheim and Chicago, you know, some of these younger upstart teams, all of the teams are still, in it. You know what I mean? Like there's no there's no space to make up yet for a Vancouver for

a St. Louis right? Like they have time here. The math's not grueling on them yet. I guess it's getting to that point with the blues though. They're going to need some saves here. Yeah. The thing is is like you sucking is obviously not ideal but when everyone you're competing with is also similarly. Yeah. At that same spot it becomes less of a dire circumstance. The blues are like two weeks of wins away from being right at the playoff bar. So it's still early.

These teams still have time to define themselves. And so, you know, I think the panic meter should at least be lowered. We can turn the dial down on some of the panic in St. Louis and Minnesota, for example, partly as a result of the fact that, like, L.A. should also be panicking, right? Like, all of these teams are showing that they're pretty mid at this point. Yeah, the St. Louis won, I mean, 50 goals against in 12 games with an 837 say percentage right now. A lot of the underlying stuff, and even you watch the game in Columbus or the game

when they host the Canucks, their two most recent contests, they deserved a better fate. They were dominant. They're creating, how often they had the puck. The goaltending is just letting them down right now. I think that will normalize. And some weird bounces. I mean, every Blues game I'm watching has weird bounces to the point where, you know, they got a break finally when an Evander Kane game winner against the Canucks was

called off for one of the worst goaltender interference calls that I've seen. in a while. And you know, you thought like, oh, well, they were due a break. They were due to it because, you know, some of the other goals were like just ludicrous, just absurd bounces against them. And that feels like every single blues game right now. Yeah, I'm more worried about the Wild. I know they got a win at home finally against the Canucks.

I think that was more about their opponent, though, because they're just like. I don't even think it was about their opponent. The Wild was a classic example of like. They lose every single battle in front of their. own at though it's wild. Sorry, it is wild. It is wild. It is wild. The, I mean, for sure. But that game, you know, they get a goal.

Marco Rossi gets a goal after like a Pedersen waved off, like off a face off where the center gets waved off. And it's kind of just a bounces right to Rossi in the, in the crease. And then they get one where Thatcher Demko can't glove it, which you're going to get like three times a season. And then another from Brodeen where it goes right through them. I mean, you know, the, the truth is is that those, games are perfect microcosms where it's like the Canucks in a limited state with no hues, no garland,

no play drivers, no centers, you know, they could have absolutely won and maybe even deserved a point out of that game in Minnesota, whereas they couldn't even hang remotely with the blues, right? So, you know, the blues lose, the wild win, it maybe feels like things are trending better for the wild as a result. I don't know that that's true. On form, I think you even come away from those two games against the same opponent thinking, man, the blues have a way better shot at writing this ship. The Stars. Yes. Are 32nd in the league in 5-on-5 goals per hour.

They've scored nine 5-on-5 goals in their past 10 games. Their past three games against good teams, but on Tuesday against the caps, they win with 19 shots on goal. They go to Tampa Bay. They generate 20 shots on goal in regulation. And then Florida holds them to 17. on Saturday, they get a couple points in those two games in Florida, but man, the offensive creation right now, and listen, when you don't have hints in Dushain, who are your two most dynamic puck carriers and guys who can create for others in transition, you're going to have

to resort to like a very old man low post game essentially, and that's exactly what they've done. I don't know if you saw the tying goal. I think really every goal they scored against the Panthers came off the exact same play, which was that like shot pass from the point looking for a tip that was able to get by Bobrovsky but the last one was the best because you had Miko Randon and like engaged behind the net with Erd Eckblad and he almost it was like a NBA set play for Steph Curry where like you're running a pin down down low near the baseline and then you get a pick and then all of a sudden he pops open for an open three yeah it was like that where like

Edwlad's holding Randon and behind the net Randon somehow shakes loose gets around the net puts a stick down and a shot pass hits it perfectly and he tips it past

Mabrovsky and I was like that was the most NBA type set play I've ever seen a team run in the offensive zone and that's the full extent of their offense right now

because there's no speed really to push the opposing defense back so everything's going to be so methodical off stuff like that those guys will get healthier and they're going to be at full strength

and I think it'll look different but man right now they're I mean they're certainly the least efficient 5-1-5 offense in the league, which is something I didn't think I'd say. I mean, I think they know it, right? And I think they're playing no event hockey to try and just grind out enough that they can define who they are once they're fully healthy and have some juice in their lineup again. You know, at the very least, if you're going to be this limited in terms of how you're playing offensively, it helps to have a nuke like Miko Raton. They also had the Harley deal, which is a good example of signing early, signing. signing a guy early. I also think people were surprised to see that cap it. I don't think people

understand that Harley is like a legit 1A. It just so happens that he plays on the same team as another legit 1A guy in Miro Hayskinan. I think there's an argument that Harley is as good. I honestly think this is not a Taves. I don't think this is a Taves-McRer-Heronic Hughes-type situation. I think these guys are legitimately as good as one another. Yeah, I mean, he's not, we saw what he did last year when Hayskinin was out, and this year they're using them separately to carry their own pairs. Right, and yeah, I mean, and Harley's crushing it. So, yeah, I mean, we're not worried about the stars long term.

There's just too much talent there, but they certainly haven't looked like an inner circle contender. They are an inner circle contender. I think I don't, it's, it's, they're the ultimate weight in C team. Like, we're going to know way more in two months, and I think we have to give it that much time. just because the injuries have sort of prevented. The injuries are such that it prevents me from being like, well, maybe, you know, Gulletson's not the guy, or maybe it's this or maybe it's that. Like I feel like the choices they've made to just be this defense first, low event operation,

and trust that Ranton and their power play and some of this low post stuff can help them punch above their weight and just sort of tread water in the interim. I mean, all of that makes sense at this point. we said we weren't worried about the Oilers when we did the watchability rankings because this is an annual tradition of theirs to come out of the gates low in October, even November, and then really start to turn it on in the second half of the season. Did you see that dry-sidal quote about Utah? Yes. That was the ultimate Oilers quote. Yeah.

And then they did bring it that night. They did, yeah. You know what I mean? Well, after the first intermission. Right. Yes. But my point being, like, they weren't going to, you know, allow. I mean, basically Drysaddle is like, well, great, an October hockey team.

Like, woohoo, what do you win for being good in October? It's like clearly nothing. Think the Oilers. We know this. Even though it came at the expense of our Utah mammoth, Leon Dreisadle is the coolest. The coolest. Did you see on Saturday where he scores on the power play and it looks like a buzzer beater? Then they review it and it was like 0.001 seconds late.

And then they go to intermission, comes right back out, back on the power play and scores on the next ship just to get, make sure he gets his goal that he got stolen from. He's so cool. They're up 11-4 with him on the ice 5-on-5. They're down 23 to 12 without him on the ice. Now, part of that is because they're just getting P.D.O. to death. I mean, the Ekholm-Haw-Shard pair, which has had its issues, I think some of that Colm's movement defensively in that game against the Canucks especially.

Yeah. Some of Bouchard's turnovers. The Rangers and the Islanders. whatever reason we're absolutely disastrous. So many costly turnovers around the blue lines. Well, it's October. The Oilers are accepting trick-or-treaters, especially Evan Bouchard. He's accepting trick-or-treaters until Halloween.

That's how Evan Bouchard does it. They currently have a 2% on-ice shooting percentage and an 8-60 on-a-shaver percentage. So I think that'll be okay. It will be, but Echome... Yeah, his movement is alarming. His movement is alarming, yeah. And Bouchard's turnovers are also graphic. I mean, at this point, it's like you need a parental warning.

Well, you're getting the trick and you're going to get the treat eventually. Yeah, I mean, you will. Like, you know, I'm not a, I'm not a stretch pass. He hit Tricidal for the breakaway. I'm not a Bouchard. You can't win with Bouchard guy. Like, to be so clear. But that Rangers game was like absolutely everything the Bouchard haters have said for a long time, just manifest.

Yeah. Here's a couple of things that I do like for the Oilers. One is they're using McDavid and Dreiseladel and the Pke together, which rocks. Yeah. They've played 16 minutes so far. they're up 1-0 short-handed. They played 21 total minutes short-handed together the past three years. And the other one is I actually think to my eye, like, you know, they bring in Roslovich after the season starts.

He's been awesome. He's playing on that line with Dreisel and Pocles in right now, and they've been absolutely dominating. And so I think that's allowed them to just finally mercifully split up McDavid and Dreisdil. They were playing like exclusively together in the first 10 games or so. Now they're playing a part. And so I think that's really encouraging. Getting another guy with juice like that, I think is going to go a long way for them, especially for as cheap as they got them.

But yeah, I'm not worried about them. No. To be clear. No. It. I refuse to worry about the Oilers until mathematically they need to win at like a 115 point pace to make the playoffs. Like we've been.

And even then they're going to do it. And even then they're going to do it. But I don't even worry about them until the math is that grim. Like that's, we've seen this movie. We see it every year. It's not even a movie. It's a series. It's like this is a year.

six of the same television series. We kind of know how this ebbs and flows. And I'm really looking forward to, you know, next week the abs are going to, I believe they host Tampa Bay and then they go to Edmonton. And I feel like those abs, Oilers games are always fun because you can tell that the Oilers get up for it. They're going to bring it. Yeah.

All right. Anything else? You want to head on the way out? Anything we didn't talk about? Man, so much we didn't talk about. I mean, the Matthew Schaefer show rolls on. he's another one like I wonder about a little bit from a hockey Canada perspective what do you think about that is it too early it's too early I don't know if it is man I really don't like I really

don't know if it is I think he's really really special at this point yeah I think it's I'm not saying it's too early in the sense that it would be outrageous from a merit perspective I'm saying it's too early from an expectation that that would actually be a likely outcome yeah I don't know, man. They don't, like, that left side is not, like, super deep. Yeah. Yeah, but now that Harley has really cemented himself, like, I feel like. Yeah.

Well, I'm not saying he's making it over Harley. I just, yeah. I wonder, you know, even if it's the eighth guy, I, is Doughty going, right? Like, is there going to be a vacancy? I mean, this kid's been incredible. The comeback on Sunday against the Blue Jackets, insane. Do you want to do that next week? Do you want to put together?

perspective mockings? Yeah, I think it's time. Is it too early? No, I think it's time. All right. I'm already excited. Like, I watch almost every game I'm watching. I'm watching through the lens of this. Like, one of my hot takes was going to be Jack Eichel is the best American-born

center. You know, I mean, I watch every game I'm watching through the lens of what to expect at the Olympics. I'm so excited for it. Isn't it so fun doing those like middle of the night post game shows? Dude, it's middle of the season Stanley Cup playoffs. I mean, it's the best.

Yeah, I mean, Four Nations is so fun. So, this is going to be even cooler. All right, buddy, what do you got to promote on the way out? Canucks coverage, read about the latest injury news at theathletic.com, and of course, Canucks Talk Monday to Friday, noon to 2 p.m. Pacific time on 6.50 a.m. in Vancouver or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Well, I'm looking forward to next week's Sunday special already.

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