The Hockey PDOcast - Game Plans and Adjustments in Leafs vs. Lightning

Episode Date: April 25, 2023

Anthony Petrielli joins Dimitri to talk about the first four games of Leafs vs. Lightning, how Toronto was able to come back in both Game 3 and Game 4 and the good and bad of what both teams are doing tactically in this series.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey Pediocast with your host, Dmitri Filipo. Welcome to the Hockey Pediocast. My name is Dimitrippovich. And joining me is my buddy, Anthony Petrelli. Anthony, what's going on, man? I mean, leaves are up 3-1, the sun's shining a little brighter, the food's tasting a little better, the air is a little crisper.

I don't know how to explain it. Yeah, it's funny how that works. Well, we're just three weeks away or so from the 10th anniversary of the original. 4-1 game. And so it feels like this is kind of like a poetic bookend to that script, right? With the Leafs coming back last night, of course, coming down 4-1 and the third, score of three goals, winning in overtime on the power play. We're going to get into all that, talk about this series, break it down. We've got an extra day off between games 4 and 5 to let it marinate a little bit. So it's a good opportunity for us to check in on this series.

It's a bit of a tricky one to analyze, right? Because generally, like I like to focus on file and five play because I feel like, you know, that's the most upon time you spend game time at. It's kind of the best from like a tactical and systems perspective to break down. And especially when it's a game environment where it's a close game and it gives you like a best sense of the way both teams want to play. Right. And in this series, the least amount of time has been spent in game scores with where it's been either tied or within one goal where either team was up by one.

There's been a lot of situations where either team has been up by multi goals. and so it gives you kind of like a weird or distorted sense I feel like of what the teams are trying to accomplish. But when the games have been close, it's been really fascinating to see sort of that interplay between the two. So we're going to try to sort of parse that and it makes sense of it. But I do think that's been throwing a bit of a curveball compared to what I expected heading in. Yeah, I mean, let's be honest. If they did not come back in game four, we would be talking about how the series is 2-2 and how they've largely been outplayed.

I mean, up until that third period when they mounted the comeback, I don't think they played a period with Victor Hedman in the series where they actually outplayed Tampa. And that's to say nothing of Eric Sernak, who, I mean, he's either their second or third best defenseman. So, is he coming back at any point? What's the factor there? Like, Tampa should feel like they've had a bit of a, you know,

poor hand played to them where they stand in the series. so far, but at the same time, you know, you mentioned Leaves Bruins, like 10 year anniversary upon us. It, it kind of feels like some karma finally coming back for this core that's been so snake-bidden over the years. Yeah, I mean, that's the thing about the playoffs. It doesn't, like, it's good to have, to sort of trust the process and to be, you know, winning games, quote-unquote, the right way in terms of, like, dominating the flow of play

and having all these underlying indicators that make you feel like, all right, like, you know, we're dominating, we deserve this win, but at the same time, you just have to outscore the team in one individual game and you just have to win four of them to advance. And so it doesn't really matter how you accomplish that, right? And so that's sort of totally besides the point. But I think the big story as we get into this here has been how human Andre Baselowski has looked, right? I think that's like a very good starting point for us here because he's given up 19 goals now in these four games. He has an 8.56% percentage for the series. And heading into this one, I kept coming back to you.

I know that it didn't work out for them last postseason because in the game seven, the Leafs just weren't able to break through, right? They only scored the one goal that counted. They weren't really able to even meaningfully test them for large stretches of that game. It was just a terrific defensive performance from the Lightning in that game seven. But the Leafs internally coming out of that series, I know felt like they had sort of either crack the code or figured out, I guess, a better way to put it, like how to have success against Andre Vazovsky in particular. And now it's obviously easier said than done. He's an unbelievable

goalie with just like phenomenal physical traits, right? And a resume that speaks for itself. But now in these 11 playoff games, they've played over the past two series, the Leafs have scored at least three goals and 10 of them. They've done so in every game so far in the series. And they really have made him look human, right? It's very rare where you watch a game against the lightning. and you feel like any shot taken from anywhere has a chance of at least being threatening or going in against a goalie with the caliber of Vasilevsky. But that's what it's felt like in these games in particular last night where as that game went on, it felt like any single shot was like, ooh, that one, that one was a lot

closer than I thought it was going to be. I think they've kind of adjusted too to playoff hockey over the years. Like often when I looked back at their playoff defeats, there was so much talk of, of they got goal lead and, you know, they had chances and they weren't producing. And at times, I just kind of felt teams kept them really to the outside and the Leafs were unable to really get inside and create the kind of offense. You know, if we go back almost to the, I think to me this was a changing point of the league. It was when John Tortoros was with the Rangers and they essentially just, they went far off

blocking a bunch of shots. And, you know, those like the Dan Gerardi, Ryan Callahan Rangers, and they just grinded. And teams really started packing the house ever since then and kind of seeding, okay, we're okay, giving up some level of shot quantity as long as we can suppress the quality. And I think the Leafs really struggled at times to get inside. But we look at even the Morgan Riley goal to tie the game last night. And it's what, John Tavares is standing on top of the crease. Ryan O'Reilly's driving the net.

The puck goes essentially between both of them and Vasilevsky can't track it and go in. And there's nothing pretty about it from the Leafs standpoint. It's just like, let's get bodies to the net. Let's get a puck through traffic. It wasn't a bomb or anything. Riley doesn't even have a bomb if he wanted to. And it just finds a way. And they've had a number of goals like that.

Like we're seeing Marner in particular where he's just more than ever willing to just throw pucks on net and hope good things happen. And you know, you can't last on that. And, you know, you kind of talk about five on five play five on five goals in the series are 11 11. Like there's been no disparity between them. And the Leafs have been largely outplayed at five on five. But I do think there's something to be said of just knowing like, let's get pucks on net. Let's get bodies on net. And that will open up the other plays because Matthews did like the second goal is a genuinely very nice goal.

Like that was a great three on two. you need a combo of both yeah i think calduba's said as such i remember around the trade deadline after all the flurry of moves they made right it kind of a point of emphasis was being better in front of the net at both ends of the ice right we tend to like focus on clearing yeah the front of your own net and increase in making it easier for your goalie but it also applies to the other end where you want to have a um a diversity of offensive sort of ways to beat the other team might if they take away or just sit on one area and then all of a sudden you have nothing else to fall back on it could be a long series for you and i think you know it's interesting uh after

the game watching derrick alone on the broadcast and he's been just such a phenomenal ad for that panel like just like awesome affirmative uh adding an a useful perspective of a current coach to right not someone who's been out of the game for a while and is kind of like speaking on on past experience that might not necessarily be applicable anymore like he's still in the league he's worked with a lot of these lightning players, and then Luke Shen for the lease, of course. But, and I'm stunned that Steve Iserman, by the way, is allowing him to speak so openly on these national broadcasts as well. Like, that's, that's something.

Is Tampa not upset? Because I know you're going to reference that he mentioned study on that last last week. I assume they're probably not very happy, but also this kind of happens with past employers sometimes, not that he left on an S hour and all, right? He got a head coaching job with an NHL team. I'm sure they were happy for him to leave. who's also the division of rival of Tampa, by the way. This is like some 4D Chesterham, like moving forward.

Yes, yes, setting it up. No. And the point you're referencing there is he sort of noted how while he was with the lightning, they had internally sort of done some evaluation of their own players, including Vasilevsky, and had found that or identified like a clear weakness in his game of tracking and seeing point shots, right? And I know everyone's to say like, oh, wow, like, yeah. a screen point shot where a goalie can see it,

that's going to give them some problems. That's certainly the case. But I do think it is applicable and notable here because not only are the Leafs using that to their advantage so far, but for a goalie of Vasilevsky's caliber, like if he generally, we're so used to him stopping everything. So when he looks human, I do find that notable, especially when it's not just like a one-off thing.

Like it's happening time and time again in this series. And so I find that interesting because it feels like there's something to it beyond just, oh, a couple bucks just happened to go in. Yeah, I mean, the Matthews tip last night was amazing. Like that was just an actual incredible goal. And Achari had a very nice tip. And Kerfoot had a very nice tip. And I've always been weary of blaming goalies on tips that close.

I mean, like, what are you going to do? It's just, they're caught if it's a nice tip. You're preparing for one save and then all of a sudden it goes in an entirely opposite direction. Yeah. I mean, you're caught. At the same time, Riley, his two goals lately are just seeing eye shots. And I don't want to say Vasclavsky's not competing or fighting to see the puck or whatever. But some guys are better at fighting through traffic to see the puck than others.

And to me, that Llan point is really highlighted on those type of goals where yes, Tavares was in front. I mean, the Riley overtime winner, there was traffic. But that's a puck you would expect him to save it. When it went in, it was a little bit of a pause almost. You kind of sit there and go, that was how they just won the game. I mean, there is something to be said, I think, to the point of what he's saying, where it's not just deflections and, and always traffic. It's just, it could be hard for him to track the puck from a distance and fight through some of the traffic and bodies and so on and so forth. Whereas we look to him and to what you're saying, it's, you usually go, you know, in tight, a two on one, whatever, three on two, odd man rush.

you expect him to make a save and use his big athletic frame and his ability to kind of suss out what's happening on the ice and anticipate and so on and so forth. So I think there's something legitimate there. Yeah, I mean, he takes up just like quite literally physically takes up so much of the net that when you do find little holes or openings that are potentially there consistently like that is notable to me. And also like I sent you a clip before. we went on air. I went back this morning and rewatch the game and took some notes. And there were

multiple times and then this extends throughout the series where as you noted, guys like Marner and Elander are sort of, and I think this is uncharacteristic for their game in the way they've played for much of their career. And even as recently as this regular season, they're like circling back up towards high in the zone and then trying to work their way towards the middle of the ice and just funneling sort of like weak wrist shots through traffic and just trying to get them on net and seeing what happens. And a lot of them look like very harmless plays. And then all of a sudden it makes it through traffic.

And that sounds he's just really slow to react to it and pick it up. And it's becoming a really challenging save or it's just missing the net. And it's actually giving them an opportunity to kind of create additional sources of offense that they maybe weren't able to last year. And the other reason why is notable is because the Leafs philosophically are a team that takes the fewest point shots of any team in the league over the past however many years. And so the fact that they're now playing this way and doing it. this, it just shows that it's kind of like a, it speaks to the pre-scouting of preparation for your

opponent, which they knew they were going to play since, what, November or whatever this regular season. And it shows that they're like actively seeking those specific shots from those areas of the ice out. And that I find fascinating because often we hear about how hockey's too fast and chaotic and you can't sort of game plan the way you can maybe for other sports where you're just like tactically trying to do one thing and doing it over and over again. And in this case, they are just kind of punishing him through that one source of offense. So I find that kind of cool. Yeah, and Marner in particular, I mean, we've seen literal entire playoff series where he's

been scared to shoot or actively passed up opportunities where he, you know, obviously the Hab series kind of highlighted as it went on. It was, he was getting pucks in prime shooting opportunities. And he was, you could tell he wanted nothing to do with shooting the puck. And now they're playing the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Eastern Conference champion. in the last three years. They won two cups. Everyone knows their resume.

And here he is. He's getting the puck on the point. And he's going, oh, I have six inches of space. Can I float one through and see what happens? Absolutely. And I'm doing it. So, you know, part of it is, yeah, they've identified something and they've sold their players on it.

And I think as it started to work, you can see it's kind of gone to their confidence to continue hunting out that type of play as it's kind of just opened up for them a little bit. And, you know, those are the kinds of things that open up. up other scoring opportunities. I mean, even the Ryan O'Reilly goal to tie game three, Tampa really sold up high. I mean, William Neander had a ton of space on the goal line there to make that play. He had like almost no pressure coming at him. And the guy up top was Marner, who was a right handed shot, who is a right handed shot.

So it wasn't like he was a one-timer option or anything, but they were still cheating up top and that opened up the space down low and we know what happened from there. So you kind of see the domino effects of the chess match playing out. Well, and there's an added wrinkle to this. They're also clearly punishing Vasselowski's blocker side. And I had them down for 22 shots that were specifically targeted towards Vasselvesky's blocker in game four. They scored all four of the goals in the comeback, right, from the third period, the three,

and then the overtime all, a couple of them were tipped, but all of them were headed towards blocker side. And kind of there was a lot of space in the net to shoot at there, right? very uncharacteristically for for vasselowski and there's this twitter account um at goley underscore school that had a really interesting video i saw kind of highlighting and this is for this is truly in the weeds for like all the goalie nerds out there i really should like kevin woodley come on and explain this more so clearly than than i'm capable of but essentially the gist of it i'm paraphrasing is like because of vaseliski's technique or maybe equipment his blocker arm is very

like flexed and rigid when he's in his stance. And so that that not only decreases his mobility, but also because he's kind of locked in that position, there's like clear holes to shoot through. And so that Riley goal that you mentioned, the tied it in game three, it was from in tight, but it quite literally just kind of trickles through Vasilevsky

and it's through that blocker arm that he has kind of locked in there and it just goes through. And so I thought that was a fascinating note. And it's clear that not only are they shooting from distance, with a plan and purpose, but also they're shooting it towards one direction of the ice. And so it's like, it's about as sort of clear and orchestrated a game plan as you can see.

And the reason why I love that is because we hear time and time again about how playoffs are, you know, about having a game plan and then executing it. And you can see it just so visibly play out that way. And so I think that's a big reason for why the leaves are up, everyone in the series right now. I almost feel like we should say something nice about Andre Vasselowski, you know, or we're poking so many goals.

I can't stop fucks from the point. I think he's had a few years of a lot of praise doled out his way, deservedly so, right? He's a phenomenal goaltender. But when you have an 856 say percentage and have given up 19 goals in four games, I think it's tough to kind of beat around the bush or talk about other stuff. There's obviously a lot happening in front of them, but we're just so used to him making those saves that when he doesn't,

I feel like that's kind of something we should talk about. I mean, I don't think the series is over by any means. If he has a signature Vasilevsky type game and, you know, the train gets rolling, you know, if they go to game seven, let's just say hypothetically, I know which team is going to be more nervous than the other. But Tampa has a lot of work to do to get there at this rate. Well, here's the thing. Okay, let's talk about what's happening in front of them because obviously it's not entirely his fault, right? Yeah. I think a lot of Tampa Bay's issues that have played out, especially over the past two games, right?

I think game two, the Leafs played really well, a nice response after how game one transpired. But I think we can, I don't want to throw it out in terms of our evaluations, but what Victor Headman has played such a big role in this series than when he's not on the ice, I feel like that's not really like relevant to what has happened in the past two games because he's been so good when he's been out there, right? And it's just obviously entirely different calculus. He's not playing all of a sudden, Michael Sergo Chips having to play all the tough minutes. He's getting throttled.

They have no other support on the blue line behind him. But I think a lot of these manifestations are because of the talent deficit that the lightning have on the blue line. And I think that's what it keeps coming back to. So we see in games three and four, they come out really strong, right? And then they fade as the game goes along. The Leafs may comebacks. And I think we're used to kind of chalking that up to the idea of score effects or of

teams sort of changing the way they play, sagging back, kind of letting up, going into a more conservative defensive shell. and that being the reason why teams may comebacks when they're down. But I think in this case, I truly believe it's like the lightning for them to be successful with the current roster they have. Their forwards need to play so aggressively. And they've done such a good job of doing that in this series. You and I were talking about like how phenomenal Brandon Hagel and his line in general with

Sorrelia and Colourne was. But they're working so hard and they're skating so hard to pressure early, right? I think the leaves have had trouble in some of these breakouts and in getting moving in the neutral zone because I don't think they were anticipating some of these lightning forwards being this aggressive. Like they're like pinching them off before they can get into the open ice at all. Sometimes they're just going for broke and sending like multiple guys at one pack carrier, particularly on a penalty kill when they have their first unit out there. And it's throwing the leaves off a little bit. And that's all well and good. But it's really tough to sustain that over the course of a full game, over the course of a full game, over the

course of a full series, you're asking a lot of a few players to just empty the tank on every single shift. And so I think the reason why these games have changed as they've progressed into the later stages is because of that, not because of some psychological element of the lightning suddenly, you know, getting conservative and not trying hard. I think it's just a matter of like, it's really tough for Brandon Hagle to skate as fast in the third period as he was in the first when he was more fresh. Yeah, I mean, some of its personnel related too, right? I mean, I was surprised going into the series how aggressive Tampa was. I kind of thought coming out off the hop, their defense, it lacked some quality.

You know, they obviously never at any point really capably replaced what Ryan McDonough brought to them. And, you know, what, you know, aging player, get why they made the trade, so on, so forth. You know, he's also, he is a literal playoff warrior. He's been to four Stanley Cup finals. He's won twice. He was the captain of the ring. This was the first year he didn't make the playoffs, I believe. Yeah, which is kind of a bummer.

I actually felt bad for him as a side note on Nashville. But that aside, you know, that's a very difficult player to replace and what he brings. And especially as we're watching the Leafs score a bunch of goals where they're essentially going to the net and getting, you know, sticks on pucks and getting a rebound to tie the game. You know, those are all things where you would sit there and go Ryan McDonough. And, you know, then it got further exasperated because, Eric Cernack got hurt. And now you're sitting there going, who is winning the battles in front of the net for the lightning? And I look at a guy who's actually, I think, had a very impressive playoff series and put himself on the map in Darren Raddish. You know, he's also kind of had it

taken to him a little bit in front of Tampa's own net. I mean, other than that, he's been fantastic and exceeded any expectations I even remotely reasonably had for him. But I thought going into the series, Tampa would look at their defense and say, you know what, we're going to hang back and try to rope adope the Leafs. And instead, it's been Tampa who's been getting rope adoped by the leaves. It's gone the other way, which has been shocking to me, personnel-wise. I think they have to, though. Like, I think they went to the series and they were like, if we sit back and we allow the puck to be just played deep in our zone time and time again, we're not going to be, like, eventually we're just going to get absolutely rocked because

we've seen that throughout the series. Like, when the puck gets deep, when you have Ian Cole and Zach Bogosian having to go back and make a play on the puck and do something with it. That's when turnovers have happened. That's when the Leafs have been able to sustain some of these sequences. You think of Game 2. And that's why not having Headman there hurt so much, like that second period where they blew the game open, the Leafs did.

There was just like an eight or nine shift stretch consecutively where the Lightning weren't even able to cross center ice. Like they would like half-heartedly get it out of the zone. And the Leafs would just basically get fresh guys out there, regroup and get back in there and have the puck for another 60 seconds in the zone. And so I think what the lightning looked at and decided to do was, we're just going to put the brunt of this game plan on our forwards. We're going to try to get them to pressure the leaves,

to cut the ice in half. And hopefully if they do their job and hold up, the defenseman won't be exposed. And that's just a lot to ask from your forwards. And I think that's why this has been happening. And you know, you mentioned some of the net front battles. I think that's where you see this as well. that's why the leaves have had success doing so because they're winning some of those battles

and it's because a man like ian cole has had a rough series in my opinion for a guy who's sort of thought of as like a physical shot blocking defenseman who's a veteran and he's been there and done that like he's got one two cups he's getting torched like uh on the mariner clip that i referenced earlier that i sent you part of the reason why it was such a difficult shot for vasselievsky was because ian cole for some reason was like playing in front of you know he was like playing in front of you front of John Tavares or Ryan O'Reilly who was just standing right in front of Vasilevsky in his kitchen screening him. And Ian Cole is just standing in front of them, not even potentially realizing that there's a guy behind him. He just has been absolutely outclassed in this series.

And so that's where they miss Chernak so much because he's one of the best crease clearers in the league. Honestly, that Surnak injury has significantly altered the series, I think, because Tampa should feel pretty good about what their forward group has done. I mean, no planet. They could predict Fasolevsky a sub-900 the way he is. But if they had CERNAC and with the way the forward group is going, I think they would feel pretty good about it. I think they probably felt really, I mean, they did. They actively said they felt really good about their game after game three. And I'm sure they felt really good about their game going into the third period. And then it just kind of, this is the playoffs, right? This is exactly what happens. You feel good about

things. And then the next thing you know, you're down 3-1, just like that. Yeah. No, certainly. Okay. Well, do you want to do you want to do you want to be? to talk a little bit about some of the from like the Leafs perspective because it feels like we've been focusing on what the lightning haven't been doing well in this series and I think some of it is just because they don't have the options

in the blue line now that turn X out unfortunately. For the Leafs, you know, it's been a struggle. I think part of the issues why like things have cropped up for them at the start of game three and game four because of how aggressively as I mentioned the lightning have been pressuring them.

They haven't been able to really get moving in the neutral zone at all, right? It's been, it's been such a slog there for them trying to make successful plays up the ice, get moving with speed. And that's opened up a little bit, I think, largely due to fatigue in the third periods of those games. But I'm kind of curious from your perspective of like what you're seeing there, why it's been, it's been so challenging for them, I guess, to get moving because that's not something we got accustomed to seeing from them in the regular season. And heading into the series, I didn't think that the lightning would be able to to pressure them as consistently and as aggressively and give them as much trouble as they have there.

Yeah, I don't think the Leafs have really been able to give Tampa a different look in the neutral zone. I feel like they've just kind of been running into a wall the whole time and they haven't particularly made too many adjustments. And the biggest thing is just Tampa has been completely suffocating, right? I mean, you would watch you, there's been sequences that have developed where of all people, Luke Shen has been breaking out really well. I mean, he's had a number of plays per game where you're sitting there and he has the puck in the corner and you're, you almost clench up watching it going, what's going to happen? And he's putting something on somebody's tape up the wall. And then as the Leafs start to transition through the neutral zone, Tampa's playing them so tight that it's it's leading to a turnover and then maybe some muddled neutral zone play.

And then the Leaf's throwing it in deep and then line changing. And then Tampa has just been able to tilt the ice. And when I look at it, one thing the Leafs have kind of slowly lost a little bit over the years is speed, I feel. And when a team's playing you that tight, you almost need to create races, right? Back to the old Pittsburgh days, so to speak, of when they're back-to-back cups, what did Pitt do a lot of teams jam them? So then they created 50-50 races. They flip pucks and they won races. And, you know, we're looking at guys like Connor Sheary and Brian Rust and so on.

and so forth, Carl Hagelin, Phil could still skate at that time. Right. And you kind of almost look at it and say, okay, well, either the Leafs need to create races or they need to be way more strategic about how they're putting the puck into the lightning zone because Tampa at any, like a high percentage has been able to kind of just go back there and get the puck right back out of their zone without the Leafs being able to kind of am the man or create a turnover. And the few times they've been able to do it.

We've seen goals, right? Like the fourth line scored a goal or just puck in deep, two men on at turnover and right away, Zach Austin rescores. Austin Matthews had a really good forecheck on Darren Radish leading to a goal. They've just not been able to consistently produce those opportunities. And I think part of that is just the way they're putting the puck in and not having speed off the puck when they do dump it in and nothing's in sync. It's more of just like survive and get off.

So Tampa's done an excellent job in the neutral zone. They have to be thrilled with it. And conversely, the Leafs has struggled with the puck, but they've also, to me, struggled without the puck in the neutral zone. They have. I mean, part of it does feel a little bit self-inflicted to me. Heading into this series, I was very curious to see what lineup the Leafs would use heading in, because especially with all the additions they made on the blue line at the trade deadline,

they gave themselves a logjam of personnel, right, in different options. and that's all well and good. And if injuries pop up, I'm sure the lightning themselves would love to have players of the caliber of Eric Gustafin and Timothy Lilligrin sitting in the press box so that they could put them in, right?

But it is frustrating to me, and now that they are up, the Leafs are up 3-1 heading home, we generally know how teams operate and it's not messing with that kind of, quote-unquote, winning formula, right? You just kind of, you roll back what got you there. And I would like to see,

I wonder if they had lost game four, if you're down 4-1, don't make that comeback. lose they're heading back to two, too. I wonder if we would have seen them be more aggressive in potentially finding a way to event to finally put Timothy Lilligran back in the lineup to kind experiment with different things as opposed to maybe just trotting it back because I feel like his, this isn't a hot take. I feel like his puck moving ability would help a lot on some of these breakouts, right? I think it would make it a lot cleaner and give them different options for being able

to sort of break through some of Tampa Bay's pressure and traps. Instead, I think they're just because of the personnel they have on the back end, they're asking a lot of guys. who just don't have that really in their skill set. You're praising Luke Shen there for working the puck up the wall, and that's all well and good. But if you're hanging your head on that, I feel like that sort of speaks to why some of these issues have cropped up. And he lacks the ability to skate with the puck, right?

There was one play where he actually did try in the second period, and Stamcoast caught him and lifted his stick from behind and turned it the other way. And Lilligan does bring some ability to do it. I mean, I think T.J. Brody has all in all had a fairly disappointed, pointing playoffs so far, right? He has really struggled, you know, moving the puck's a little bit defensively. I thought he struggled at times last year in the playoffs too. So it's it's kind of interesting how certain players play in the playoffs compared to the

grind of the regular season and the style of play that takes place there. But Brody not particularly being sharp moving the puck. I mean, once he is doing that, you can see very, very quickly, you know, Jake McCabe is not necessarily a guy you want making decisions with the puck. Mark Giordano has also, I think, by and large, struggled. Game four was probably his best game. But before then, I thought he was really having a tough time.

Justin Holes game is definitely not moving the puck. And so you can see how it goes away pretty quickly when Brody, who you really count on, is not necessarily at his A game there. that third pairing where you kind of bank on Giordano to carry it. And, you know, that's part of, I mean, it's just, you hate to say it. He's old. He is. And I feel like Justin Hall is like a very easy player to, um, to take the brunt of the

blame, right? And he's been on the ice for a lot of goals in this series. But I do feel like because of Giordano's current level and also, um, you know, just the way, I've been a bit surprised by how much. space the lightning have had when they've had the puck. We're talking about their like forecheck and what they're doing off of the puck. But when they've had the puck moving downhill, they've had quite a bit of space to actually enter the zone with speed and then create off the rush for a team that I thought was at a

speed disadvantage compared to the Leafs. They've actually been able to dictate the pace there quite a bit. And I think that's sort of a game environment where all of a sudden, you know, as a defender, you're being stranded on the island a little bit because you're not getting the back support as much as you might have previously and you're getting attacked head on by forwards. it can become a bit more challenging for a player like Justin Hall, right? So I feel like that's important because I've seen a lot of like he shouldn't be playing. You got to get him off the ice.

He's to blame for all these goals against. And certainly, you know, he's got limited utility in terms of what his strengths and weaknesses are. But I feel like it's a bit, it's a bit lazy to just sort of hone in on him and blame everything that's going wrong when there's goals against or just purely on him. Yeah, I don't really understand the Leafs approach to the neutral zone, to be honest, because going into the series, I kind of circled Derek Radish and Nick Purbix and went, I think the Leafs are just going to be looking their chops on these guys. We're going to be all over them. I mean, you mentioned Timothy Lillgren.

I feel like Tampa would have looked at that and said, young defensemen, we are going to blitz him and see if he can handle it. And the Leafs have done the exact opposite on these guys. I mean, they barely combined to have a full season of NHL hockey between them. And they have all day. I mean, the very first game in the very first minutes, Darren Radish literally glided through the neutral zone with the puck. gain the zone.

And I mean, he put a shot on net that was center chest and had no chance of going in. But just the fact that he was able to glide through the neutral zone, gain the blue line with ease and put a shot on net.

I was kind of going, what is going on here? I mean, the Leafs literally never play like this. They've done a number of things coming into this playoffs where, you know, it's like,

was the full season just a lie? Like, so many things that they've done have just completely changed the way that they're barely pressuring the point. in the D zone, right? Their forwards are hanging at the top of the circle and essentially just trying to get in shooting lanes. You know, we've already talked offensively

of how they're just throwing a little bit more pucks on net, point shots, that kind of thing. Some of the line combinations we've seen, you know, let's change the power play units. Like they've just across the board, it's just like the regular season was a lie. That's that. That's very true. All right, Andy, let's take a break here.

And then when we come back, I've got a few other observations and kind of notes on the series I don't know I hate with you. So you were listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on a sports night radio network.

Breaking down the top stories in the NHL every day. The Jeff Marys show. Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're back here in the HockeyPedio cast. Anthony, let's, I wanted to talk about

the adjustment of leafs. made as game four went along. I believe it happened at some point in the second period where they finally, Sheldon Keefe did what I was hoping they would do at the start of this series, which was flipping around the top six and putting Matthews with Nielander, putting Marner with Tavares. And it really felt like unlocking two unique scoring threats at once by doing so and really maximizing those two groups. I thought that even before Matthew scored the two big goals in the third period to help get the Leafs back in it, you could see him finally after that adjustment in the second period,

start to get some easier looks on the move, right? Space started opening up for him through the neutral zone, entering the offensive zone. He was able to get a couple of rush shots and rush chances off. And the reason why I think that's important is that for all of Mitch Marner's wonderful playmaking ability, especially on in-zone settings, the one skill set that William Neelander has that this team doesn't really have that much of elsewhere is his ability to take the puck, move it up to dice,

constantly maneuver through Tampa Bay's neutral zone structure and then create some of these advantageous attacking opportunities on the move, right? Just setting the table for players. And when you have a player with Matthews' shot and his ability to get open in the offensive zone, those are two skill sets that I want to, I want to see play together, right? And so I was kind of clamoring for that at the start of the series. They didn't, they were reluctant to do so. They had gone this way towards the end of the regular season. And now finally in game four, they made the change and I hope it sticks. Yeah, I mean, I don't think we even need to overthink this one. Tavares really struggles to keep up with Nielander.

We clearly do because the first three games. Yeah. All the different story. I don't know what he's seeing. I mean, we've seen it for literal years. Tavares doesn't have the speed to keep up with Nielander, and Matthews does. So it opens up their ability to get teams on their heels off the rush, whereas Marner is very much a methodical player,

and Tavares is a methodical offensive producer. I mean, it's completely logical. That's what I mean by overthinking. I don't know why this conversation is kind of gone the way it has. The way I almost look at is Marner and Matthews are obviously excellent together. We can see that and it's very clear. But when you have Marner Matthews and you have Tavar Tavaris and Nielander, you can quibble over these ratings.

But basically it's like, do you want a 10 and a 7.5 or do you want two nines? Right. And that's what ultimately it looks like. I mean, Marner and Tavares finally got paired together. Tavares had his first good shift of the night. And at the end of the game or end of the shift, it was kind of like an after the whistle thing where they drew power play.

But all that to be said is they like he finally showed something a little bit. You know, Marner carries the puck. Tavaris is really good working off the puck. And I kind of maybe think that they think that Nielander really likes the puck on his and so does Matthews, and so how is that going to work? But just the speed through the neutral zone and how they can kind of create offense that way is just, to me, it's a no-brainer.

Yeah, well, if that's their assessment that I guess I just fundamentally disagree with it. I just think the element and dynamic that William Nealner can bring is just something that the Leafs not only don't have elsewhere, but also a team like the Lightning just can't really keep up with, right? Like in the second half of that game four, you could just see how effortlessly he's entering the zone and then all of a sudden good things are coming from that because the leaves are in an advantageous attacking position right and and he he helps set up two of the goals he draws the penalty in the overtime uh off a nifty little move off a face off that allows him to

create there and so for all the knocks like he took a bit of a sort of lazier boneheaded penalty in the first period right um i've seen him get flack for some of his board play in this series and and and whatever but what he does well man he he he he does really really well i actually think for as much as you want the puck on Matthews' stick, allowing him to sort of play off of it and sort of more cerebrally find open space in the offensive zone and not have all the eyeballs on him, I think that's actually kind of when he's at his best, right?

Especially getting into the zone because it allows him to sort of sniff out open pockets and then all of a sudden he gets the puck and bam, it's off his stick. And that's the way I want him to play. It's a lot easier when he's the one carrying it for the opposing defense to just lock in and put bodies in front of him.

Look at that tip goal, right? I mean, Matthews literally circle behind the net, freed himself up and Neelander just held it like you know the more I watched it I was like oh my god I think he actually just sat there and waited for Matthews to like get to the net it wasn't just blindly throwing a puck on net it was to me it was strategic and in the way that you watch it you can kind of see Neelander look up and hold it an extra second and just kind of time it perfectly I mean we mentioned the tip earlier in the show the tip was amazing that is a goal score right but how like the way they set it up is almost more

Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you. And, you know, a big part of that comeback was the power plant so far in the series, the Leafs have scored six goals in 23 minutes with a man advantage, I believe. And in the past, that's been an issue for them, right? In big moments, it's dried up. I thought it would kind of, it would just become very stagnant, right? They'd have that top unit out there.

Everyone was just kind of standing in their spot. Their opposing penalty kill would kind of know what to expect and just be able to sit back on it and block those shots. and I think their efficiency from like a percentage conversion perspective was like in the mid-teens for the past four post seasons. And so far, albeit in just four games, it's like 35% or something, right? And I think that's like a clear delineation in terms of success and that's something that needs to continue. And Derek Lleone speaking earlier about some of the stuff he's bringing to the table on the broadcast, he made the point of like, listen, the talent gap between penalty kill one for the lightning and penalty kill two. is it's not night and day, but the drop off is pretty significant.

And he's like, listen, it's just the reality of the matter. It's rare to see like a current coach, let alone anyone on TV actually criticizing the active players. But he was like, like, you can read him between the lines. He's like, when Anthony Sorrelli is out there, it's a bit of a nightmare. When he's not, you can feast on these guys. And that's exactly what happened in game four, right? It was, it was, they did a lot of their damage on the back half of some of these power plays when the penalty kill two was out there. And so I think that's an important thing.

to kind of focus on as well. Tampa changed their pressure on the penalty kill. The thing is, is that second unit with Killorn and Belmar just does not have the speed to do it, right? They just can't. But the first PK unit gave the Leafs fits. Obviously, Hegel had the penalty shot, but it just kind of encapsulated the whole thing where the Leafs would at time, I mean, if they were gaining the zone successfully,

which is a whole different story in itself. but when the few times that they did against that unit, you could feel once they kind of got to that top of the circle spot, they would curl back as 99% of teams do. And you could see them think to themselves, okay, we've gained the blue line, and now they're going to back off and we can curl and we can set up and we can get our,

our whole business in order here. But Tampa did not let up on the curl. And that's what caused the penalty shock hole, right? it was a turnover right on the curl and a chip by and and haggles fast player and he caught you know it sounds bad he didn't catch wryly it was really the turnover by tovaris that that really put riley in a vulnerable spot but all that to say is the leif's really really struggled with it colorn and belmar just don't have that speed and the the goal that i go back to is game one nielander literally glided from the face off dot to the other face off dot and just chilled

until he went, okay, I like this for a shot, and he just ripped it in. And the Tampa coaches must have went nuts watching that. Like, what are we doing? We're just admiring this guy at this rate. And they completely nixed that for this one. Just the second unit, they're not good enough to do it. Well, and the funny thing is actually in game four, I do believe, like, Couloran had nearly had a breakway, right?

And then Riley came back and disrupted the shot. And then Clorin and Pierre de Moe-Belmar had a two-on-one in the third period. that was stopped as well. So it is a difference in speed. And yet, funny enough, they still did get their opportunities. But I agree, just from like a disruption

and defensive perspective, it's a very clear difference compared to when that first penalty kill unit is out there. All right, we have like 10 more minutes here. I'll give you some other notes I have here. I don't know if we all have time to get through all of them, but I'm curious for your take.

Let's focus a little bit on the lightning because we just did a bunch of the leaves. Do I talk about headman a little bit? because I just think watching his game is so fascinating to me coming back in these most two recent ones.

We talk a little bit about Tanner Geno for less fun reasons, but I do think it's important point to hammer. Anything else from like a Leaf's lineup optimization perspective because, you know,

they're up 3-1 here. They need just one more win to get through the series. I think you don't, you certainly don't want to look ahead too far, but if you are starting to think about a match up against the Bruins at round two potentially,

you're going to have to optimize some of these things, right? I think winning the way they have so far is better than not winning, but certainly I think the margin for error is going to shrink quite a bit against the team that has fewer holes in their lineup and can play in much more diverse ways as the Bruins can compared to like the lightning being just so restricted and rigid and having to play one way to be successful and running out of gas doing so. I think from the Leaf side,

they seem to have figured out that yes, they should put O'Reilly to anchor his own line and he's very much doing so and that just gives them a completely different look where they can afford for guys to not really, you know, Tavares had the hat trick, but he hasn't been overly present since the hat trick. And now they can kind of survive something like that, whereas in previous years we've just seen them lose and everyone blames the core four. And I'm watching like Pierre Engval and Ilya, I've combined for zero, zero goals, zero assists and like maybe at best a couple shots on net.

So, you know, that depth that gives them, I think we've seen just, Noel Achari is in that Alex Kerr-foot mold to me and that he can play center, but you don't want him to play center. I mean, he's just been night and day on the wing to me. Like, he's a winger. Like, that's really what his position is. He's looked much better going there. And the only last thing I'll say on the Leafs time before we get to those Tampa pieces is

they got to figure out how bunting slots back in. And I do think that they actually need bunting to be an effective player. And they need to sort out what that looks like. And bunting needs to sort out what that looks like. Because to your point, they're not going to survive against Boston doing this. And bunting is a legitimate 20 goal score in this league. And the Leafs don't have, you know, beyond their top guys, they don't have a ton of that. Especially winged Allen.

Yeah. Right. And so they need to figure him out. And he needs to figure it out. I mean, he needs to, he's a good player when he stops all of the garbage. but when he does the garbage, he's a net negative to the team. And so he needs to kind of figure out

where he's going on that, whereas I think that's a good transition for Tanner, Janot, because the only time we've really seen him spark up in the series is when, you know, some of the nonsense was going on and suddenly he found his voice.

And he just very much to me look like a guy who has no clue how to contribute to the lineup right now. But when, you know, there were antics and there was physicality and there was the potential for a fight, suddenly he was, you know, in there like a dirty, dirty rag kind of thing,

because it felt like this was the only way that he knew that he could get in on contributing, quote unquote, and he had nothing else to, and he's really done nothing else. Yeah, I think, well, I think the lightning desperately needed more from,

or have needed, shouldn't be speaking necessarily, just in past tense, but they need more from that combination of Paul Colton and him, right? Like, you know what you're going to get from the first line, the second line with Sorrelli and Hegel and Glorne has been phenomenal.

The fourth line has been very productive, pretty much everything you could hope for from a fourth line, especially with a bunch of like kind of plotting veterans. But in this case, like they needed some more offensive juice or some more disruptivity from that group. And, you know, on the one hand, it's a mirror.

It's almost like, I'm surprised Geno's playing in the series because that injury he had at the end of the regular season looked so rough that I thought like, oh man, he must have like blown out everything. his leg. And so we're just not going to see him. And so he misses only game one comes back. So on the one hand, it's like, that's a pleasant surprise on the other. He's played 40 minutes in these three games since three shots on goal, hasn't been on the ice for a single goal for. And to my eye, it just

looks like a total whiff in evaluation by the lightning, right? I think I totally understand the logic of that trade in the sense like we don't care about the draft picks because we're in win now mode and the value of adding a player making 800K or whatever that fits on our cap sheet is so useful to us that that's all that matters. And you watch like, Brennan Hagel, I would give up any number of picks for a player of that caliber on that salary when you're the Lightning. But when you watch a note, some of that values negated when the player is unable to actually contribute.

And the Pucks just dying on a stick, even in Game 3 during that sequence where the Lightning were really building momentum and getting a ton of chances. and the game was still, I think it was 2-2 at that point still. Genoa had like a sequence where he had like three straight scoring chances, including a breakaway. And it's just like he comes in and it's just like a muffin rister on Simpsonaugh. I'm just, I'm just kidding. And at a time where I thought Samsonov was struggling a little bit,

like before he really locked it and helped carry, keep the Leafs in it, he at the start of game three, I thought he went back to whether it was nerves or what have you. He was like swimming a little bit and kind of bit chaotic from a technique perspective. And if I'm a player coming in on that, I'm trying to get him moving laterally and seeing if I can create an opening in the net. And instead he just shoots it right at him. And it's like, oh, man, this is, this just speaks to a player that just doesn't have the skill set to do anything more creative here. And so I can't help but think that's a whiff because, man, if you can use those five picks they had to add a Dimitriorlob or seeing what he's doing to the Bruins or Nick Jensen or I guess any other Caps defensemen because everyone on that team was available at the deadline, adding another top four defensemen that could play in this series.

I really do think is the difference between winning and losing right now for the lightning. I think the margins have been that close and the gap and talent has been that clear for them that I would just absolutely, if I was Julian Breeze, I'd be just staying up at night every single night being like, man, what a whiff because we really could have done something so much more significant here. I mean, you mentioned the caps. You could legit argue they could have just got like Connor Sherey for like a, I thought you were going to see Garndon Hathaway.

I'm like even he would probably be a more meaningful ad. I mean, halfway would be a more meaningful ad. but like Connor Shiri at least has some scoring chops and can contribute a little bit. And I mean, ultimately you look at the Tampa Forward Group. And I mean, there's no replacing every single thing that Andre Palat brought to their dynasty or whatever you want to call it. But Brandon Hagel has obviously taken a step and has pretty much kind of slotted in one for one what Pilat, you know, squint or whatever. but generally speaking, Hegel's gone into the top six and they haven't really missed a beat there. And the top guys are all producing.

And the one thing that stands out is previously Hegel was on the third line and he really tied that third line together, him and Nick Paul when they brought them in last year. And then they bring in Tanner, you know, this year with, I assume the same intention of like, let's tie in our third line. Hegel has competently replaced Pilate. Everything else is literally the exact same. And he hasn't done anything. and I mean, I'm willing to give it time. I know he obviously flashed last year, but I don't know at best how they look at it as anything other than a reclamation project at this point in time.

Yeah. Yeah. I did want to make a note on Hedman here. Yeah. As I mentioned earlier, I just think I was like, man, I don't know what to expect from him after he missed game two and seeing some of the clips with him kind of just like limping around off the ice and considering his injury history. You don't know what they expect for the series. When he's been on the ice of 5-1-5, the Lightning have a 64% expected goal share.

When he's not on the ice, it drops down to 41%. Now, he hasn't gotten good. They're not feeding him a significant percentage of the minutes against, you know, when Matthews and Marna were playing together, they were giving Sirgat Chavis para quite a bit of those. But watching him operating the offensive zone in particular, right? Like, I would be showing every single young defenseman, Victor Headman clips, because he certainly got the bomb from the point and on the power play he likes to use it and all that. but on some of these 5-on-5 sets,

like his ability to just kind of detach from the blue line, go down the zone, change the shooting angle, and then patiently work it off the wall, is just the sight to behold. And he did it multiple times in game four. And so I just wanted to note that because it feels like it's been, I know the lightning are down 3-1,

they're on the ropes here. So there's not a lot to be positive about, but that his play has been something I've marveled at for sure. Between Hadbin and Riley, honestly, it just kind of goes to show, I mean, when these guys are vets and they're good players the way that they are, how hard they coast through the regular season.

Right. Because, I mean, Riley, I'm just willing to admit is kind of coasting through the regular season at this rate and waiting for playoff time because he looks like a completely different player. And if you watched Hedman for large chunks this season, he, I mean, headman wasn't even playing on the top power play unit for large portions of this regular season. And then you see him operating the way that you're saying.

It's like, all right. Like, I think it's pretty clear how they feel about the, you know, let's just get through it. It's, you know, it's a marathon. It's not a sprint. It is what it is. And come playoff time the way that some of these guys are able to just turn it up and find a level and elevate their game. It's night and day.

Yeah. If you had questions about whether he still got it, he still got it. Anthony, I'll let the listeners know here where they can check you out, plug whatever you got going on, give them all that good stuff. Yeah, you can find me on Twitter at A Petrielli. You can find Leafs-related content at Maple Leaf Hot stove. you can find larger NHL-wide, hockey-wide, really content

over at Yahoo Canada. Awesome, man. Well, this is a blast. It was good to finally get you on the show. We will check in with you again down the road. Thank you to the listeners for listening to the HockeyPedio cast. We'll be back tomorrow with another episode here on the Sportsnet Radio Network.