The Hockey PDOcast - Give Nikolaj Ehlers more ice time

Episode Date: April 6, 2023

Murat Ates joins Dimitri to talk about the Winnipeg Jets, their struggles over the past 30 games that have opened up the Western Conference wild card race, and what should be some interesting future decisions for the organization.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Lessing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey-Pedio cast. My name is Amitra Filpovich. And joining me, he's my good buddy, Marad Oethe. Marat, what's going on, men? Hey, just living through this Winnipeg snowstorm here in early April, but happy to be with you, man. Yeah, it's surprisingly still cold and rainy here in Vancouver, but I was watching the start

of the game yesterday and they're panning to like the camera shot, birds eye view, Winnipeg, whatever, and I was like a lot of snow on the ground. I was like, oh my God, we're, we're in April and this is still happening. Jesus. Yeah, it's confusing. The sun is warm. It started to melt everything, but there's still quite a snowy escape here. So, yeah, it's what we're dealing with.

Oh, that means playoff hockey's on the horizon, although BPD on that for, for Winnipeg's purposes, but I guess that's what we're going to get into in today's show. Let's, I guess, first start, since we're going to talk all about the Jets. Let's start with last night's game, right? Because I think there was a lot of hype heading into it, right? it was really sort of billed as like the most important regular season game of the season between these two teams that are so close to each other. I think part of the shine of it or part of the drama got removed because Calgary lost that game in a very like dispiriting fashion the night before

the Chicago, which made it, I guess, a bit less of a make or break game from Winnipeg's perspective, but it was still hyped up as a really important regular season game as important as you're going to get. And I guess the drama was there, right? We got into the third period. It was still a tie game for the first couple minutes of that final frame. But maybe it's because there were so many penalties at the start and I just felt like you couldn't really establish any flow or rhythm. I actually thought like the game itself was pretty low quality in terms of like how it was played.

I guess the drama was still there from a viewership perspective. But it was I left it feeling a little bit underwhelmed. I mean, I relate to that to be honest. They had called 10 minutes worth of minor penalties within the first nine minutes of the game. You know, coaches spoke to it. That's Rick Bonas. last night and then Scott Arniel again today, just talking about how that pulls people out of the game and the amount of rhythm, you know, that that takes away from certain guys.

You know, Nino, Nita Ryder, pardon me, was talking about that today again. You can look at Nikolai Euler's minutes and it's just, it's just a bit of a mess in a lot of respects. And so I think the intensity was there. I think the, you know, after whistle, fisticuffs and all that sort of stuff was there. And of course, one, one heading into the third period with a chance for Winnipeg to sort of put the knockout punch on Calgary. It was all there. But I'm with you. It was a clumsy version of that game between the whistles at least.

Yeah. And, you know, I saw our pal, uh, Donald's Jishin was noting about how like, oh, like the drama of this makes me really want a play in game or like I want to see more of this, right? And for me, I get that at the same time. Maybe the quality of this game just speaks to the quality of the two teams or what they're capable of in that regard. And so I'm not, after having seen. 75 plus games of both of them, we're going to see one of them, most likely, play at least another

four playoff games. But I'm not, I'm not sure. I think we'd be okay without seeing too much more of these teams. I think I've kind of got a good gist of what they're capable of at this point. I think if you ran them against each other a few more times, like some of the, you know, just garbage play that came out last night as they were trying to find rhythm. I think that there's a higher level than what they got to last night. But I just got to be honest with you, myself, I'm not really a playing guy. I think 16 teams is plenty. You know, I think the structure has been great and, you know,

I see Don make those arguments and I'm, you don't get the buy in from me on that one personally either. You know what? Full marks, the Jacob Markstrom, I should say, because he's had a pretty rough goal of it this year. He was playing the second of a back to back, played both legs of it for the flames. And the Jets,

you know, they got off, what, 35 shots on goal, like nearly four expected goals worth of offense and he made a few really like dynamite saves where he was kind of like last ditch efforts brawled out, got his body on it. And so credit to him, but I will say, like, you know, it felt like the deck was stacked in Winnipeg's favor here to really just, just land a knockout punch on the flames, right? Like, they had that dispiriting game that I mentioned that really just like should demoralize you to no end at home against Chicago.

They lose the night before. Winnipeg's playing at home. They're arrested. They have a chance to really put the finishing touches on this and stamp their ticket into the postseason. And I don't know if you were surprised by having watched this team this entire time, but it felt like there wasn't really that much like sort of urgency or if if they viewed it that way. I wonder if Calgary's result the night before almost worked like against them in that regard because they like exhaled a little bit seeing that. I don't know. It just felt like they weren't playing as if their season was in line. I mean, there might be a sense of that.

And, you know, I'm not in their head. So I can't say for for sure. I will say that over the course of the season, Winnipeg's, I want to call it resilience, their ability to, keep playing their best version of hockey, whether they've gone down early, or maybe they've scored a few pretty goals, and now they're busting out, busting out all the seam pass attempts and all the drop passes and things that don't work. There's just been such a variability to the way that Winnipeg plays. And I think that if you start that game with that Pierluke Dubois penalty that, you know, spinning Anderson around like that, and then there are so many more

minor penalties called, I know Kyle Conner opens the scoring, it's 1-0-0-0-Jets, but it's not a team that I really count on to play through that kind of disruption to their rhythm and then come out of it the other side playing a whole bunch of clean and perfectly executed shifts. So for me, that's kind of what I saw in terms of explaining why it was such an underwhelming effort. But I'll also say that, you know, after spending the week talking about how it was basically a game seven, Rick Bonas said players were talking about a playoff atmosphere, all that sort of stuff. I buy a little bit of the exhale argument because one of my big takeaways, one of my big takeaways in the dressing room last night was the sense that these guys feel like it's all okay.

And I don't mean that they weren't disappointed to lose. They absolutely were. The emotions were there and that. But there was a lot of, okay, well, we're still in control of our own destiny. And I get that athletes need to frame things in a certain way. Maybe they'd already parked a disappointment that we didn't necessarily clock. But I got the sense that had Calgary lost that game, the devastation would have been much more widespread in the room than what I saw last night. I think the playoff probabilities reflect that, right? Even after that result, Dom still has the Jets at 62% to make the playoffs, the flames down at 27, and then Nashville at 11.

And interestingly enough, the Predators play both the Jets and Flames the rest of the way. The Jets are tied with the flames now. They have an extra game in hand and the tiebreaker. A bit of a tougher schedule, I'd say, especially if Minnesota and Colorado at the end of the season are still sort of jockeying for number one in the central and are still have something to play for in that game. But yeah, I don't know. It was it was a fun game to watch, I guess, but at the same time, like beyond that one little stretch there in the second period leading up to the Andremanjupani tying goal, right, where it felt like it really opened up and they

finally got to play a bit of five on five and they were like trading chances. That was like a one fun stretch from like, okay, this is the game that I want to see. And then all of a sudden, like literally right after that goal it bogged down again into a penalty fest and kind of more. And, more of the same. So we'll see. I guess let's pivot here to talking about Nicola Euler's because you knew that once I gave you, once I put up the bad signal to have you on the show that we'd have to have a conversation about this. And, and, you know, I'm personally, I've been tilted about it in the past. I'm still quite tilted. It takes up a lot of my emotional energy thinking about this. And it's very upsetting. This is still a thing. But when you look at as ice time and how a recurring trend it

is, we have to talk about it. I know you wrote quite a bit about it. out it recently as well, especially, I believe after the, that shut out in San Jose, right? I don't know. Like, how do you want to go into this conversation? Because it's obviously a nuanced one. There's a lot of stuff to consider, I'm sure. And I'm sure there's probably some sort of plausible excuses for why this keeps happening. But I'm certainly not alone in thinking that like, just looking at his ice times and being like,

man, for what a quality player he is and still what I see from him on the ice, like not just looking at numbers, but purely the eye test, he's a guy who deserves to be playing more than he currently is. Yeah, I agree with that wholeheartedly. I have to be honest. And maybe to give, you know, a Nikolai Euler's experience to folks who aren't as zoomed in on the Jets, I mean, he's a guy that can absolutely lead the team in transition. He's incredibly fast. He's agile. He can get through the neutral zone, which is a thing that Winnipeg struggles with sometimes. And the coaches were sort of down about that last night as well, saying that one of the things we couldn't do was get speed through the neutral zone.

But of course, Eler's minutes don't necessarily tend to corroborate that a lot of the time. And, you know, not only does he get through, but once he gets into the offensive zone, his speed is a lot for teams to handle. He's Winnipeg's leader in points per minute at five on five. So, I mean, that's not really a whole lot of analytics.

You're just turning it into a rate per time. But he scores more points per minute at five on five than any other jet. And he's done that in three of the last four seasons that Winnipeg has played. he's also Winnipeg's five on four points per minute leader right now. And that's not something he's always done, but he's traditionally been good on the power play. But they haven't found a way to get him first line minutes at even strength or top power play minutes until quite recently. And even then is even strength minutes are down. So last week, after that San Jose Sharks 3-0 shut out of Winnipeg, I asked Rick Bonas.

Hey, I mean, you know, Mark Sheifley spins out of the corner, centers a perfect feed of Blake Wheeler who has on it. why is Blake Wheeler spending three more minutes on the ice or four, four plus more minutes on the ice than Nicola Eilers is? And Bonas said, hey, we're trying to get Eilers more ice time. We really are trying. And my perspective is, that's completely under your purview. As the head coach of the team, you have the ability to control the amount of minutes that Eilers gets. And I get that Eilers take shorter shifts relative to his teammates. But if you want more offense than Winnipeg does, I mean, look at the play he made to set up Kyle Connor for the one-nothing goal just last night. Sliding the Nikolai Euler's ice time slider up is the way to do it, whether it's even strength of power play or what have you. And yeah, I agree.

There's a huge tension between results and sort of how the team has approached it, not just in the bonus era, but in Paul Marisa's era. And Dave Lowry's era with the Winnipeg Jets too. Yeah, it's like me like every night just sitting at home crushing another bag of ketchup chips and being like, I'm really trying to get in shape. I am. And it's like, well, okay, I feel like I have some say in that, right? In this case, it's like, this is a recurring thing. I think if Stars fans are listening to this right now, they're probably like, wow, we really live this exact same conversation with Rupa Hintz and Dennis Garayanov

and pretty much every single sort of skilled forward that they had under Rick Bonas's tenure, they're coaching the team. And I just, I was blown away by seeing the thing where he said that like he's trying to get him more minutes and he's the coach and he's the one who controls. that is one thing. But the explanation for for how Kevin Stenland's usage impacted that was I just don't think like I don't that's not good enough. Like you're the coach. Your job is to manufacture extra shifts and opportunities to get your best players on the ice to give you a chance to outscore the opponent. And it's pretty clear that Nikola Eelers does that as well as anyone in this team.

And so to kind of let a game get away from you like that time and time again is very disappointing from my angle. Yeah. And you know, to use Kevin Stenland is. another example there. So, you know, he's a fourth-line centerman on the Winnipeg Jets. He's a right-handed centerman. And Rick Bonas's argument in San Jose was, hey, we needed to win some draws. And so then, you know, Stenlin got cut out there on, had longer shifts. Face Offs are of particular import to Rick Bonas. And you saw that cost the team again against Calgary, where seven seconds left in a penalty kill. Mark Schifley comes out as a right-handed face-off man and closes out. And closes out. the penalty kill with Kyle Connor.

These aren't guys that Rick Bonas traditionally trusts with PK Minutes, and Mark Schifley is not a strong defensive center. Kyle Conner is not a strong defensive forward. Sheifley loses a battle to Trevor Lewis on route to what becomes the game-winning goal as well. So this zoom in on face-offs above what happens after that battle

is a little bit extreme with Rick Bonus, and it certainly is frustrating. I think it's saps away some of the other aspects of the game. In Rick Bonas's defense there, there have been a few really memorable moments this season where Winnipeg gets cleanly burnt goals against directly off of base off losses. And I think that there's an emotional component to that that seems to make them feel more important to him than they are.

And I also want to add, I mean, that's not really compelling argument to me, but that I think is the other side of it. And I want to add maybe the argument that leads to why Nicola Eelers doesn't get those minutes. And we've seen this for years now. I mean, Nicolite Eelers, the results are extreme positive, no matter what. I mean, he has a positive defensive impact, not because he's good in his own zone,

but because he's so good at flying through the neutral zone. It's the aggregate of what he does, right? Like the total, yeah. Exactly right. Yeah, it creates more than he gives up. The aggregate is exactly that. But I think on route to doing that, if you look at the way that he plays,

well, on his way up through the middle of the ice, he's kind of playing jazz. He's reading, he's reacting, it's a little bit chaotic. He gets into the offensive zone, and he might go for the wide curl around the net, and then circling back and looking for passes. He might pull up.

He has a few different moves, and I feel like some of Winnipeg's other key forwards haven't always understood exactly what the Euler's game plan is. So you can take this back to 2019, when the Blues beat the Jets in the first round, Blues won the cup. Part of Winnipeg's collapse, I think, was Eelers's injury and then ensuing reduction of ice time because Connor Schifely and

sorry, pardon me, Connor Schifely and Wheeler was the default version of the Jets line. Eelers Schifely and Wheeler had played together as a trio to some tremendous results. 60 plus percent of expected goals and shot share all that sort of stuff. Even better than that with the actual goals that they scored. But I didn't get the sense that Winnipeg's other star players could get over the moments of frustration when Eelers does actually make a drop pass to nowhere or doesn't keep the pucking at the line. The aggregate is so positive, but I've always thought that there's some moments of Eelers's play that frustrate line mates. And that might be why we haven't seen him staple to Shifley

despite their incredible actual results together over the years. And I wonder if that's what's happening again under Rick Bonas's watch this year. Yeah. Well, yeah, the Rick bonus thing is one thing because I think he is a coach that has shown that he's chronically, as I said, underplayed his most dynamic players, especially in favor of guys that he views as sort of like safer or more conservative, especially defensively, who feels more comfortable with. And I think that's why you see some of these names playing nearly as much as him. This has happened in the past as well.

I think that's what makes this conversation so frustrating. It's not an isolated incident. I think this year is an extreme, right? I believe that Nick Eilers right now is averaging fewer five on five minutes per game than he has at any point this season even dating back to when he was a rookie and he's like pretty much at his career low in all situations ice time i think he only played like five seconds less or something uh in 2018 19 but otherwise this is a low as well and i the frustrating part to me is you watch him and i don't think i don't think this is the argument of like oh you have to watch him play because

the numbers don't tell the full story because the numbers are one thing and i'm going to talk about those in a second but even watch him last night right he's such like an ice tilting table stable setting, scoring chance creating just demon. Like that's what he does, right? And I thought he was a bit off last night against Calgary. Like he had a few chances and it just didn't wind up converting. He obviously had the beautiful power play set up cross seam to Kyle Connor. But even on a night where he wasn't fully on, there were four or five times where he would just like pick up a loose puck either high in his own zone or in the neutral zone and single handedly basically flip the ice, weave through traffic, get it in the offensive zone and manufacture.

some sort of a shot on that for either himself or a teammate out of thin air. And that's something this team needs so desperately. I was reading one of your articles and you're kind of pointing out like the thought process in terms of what the right play is on these breakouts and stuff and how they have wingers who can push back the opposition's defense and sort of give them more space in the middle of the ice. And there's pretty much no one in the league that's better than that. And Nick Eelers, there's a short handful of people, but he's right up there with the elites.

And so I don't know, it's just so frustrating seeing what he's capable of. and then the way he's treated, especially compared to some of his other linemates who, let's be honest, are flawed in their own ways, but seem to get treated differently by the coaches. Yeah, I mean, it doesn't take a spreadsheet to watch a player

just single-handedly transport a situation in his own end to the other end to be like, hey, that's dynamic, that's great. This guy's a good hockey player. Yeah. Yeah. And also that all the chances that you named in the creation that you named in this,

you know, off game for him with the assist on the goal and a third period breakaway that admittedly Markstrom got the blocker on as well. I mean, there's dynamism to the to the player. And I think that more Eilers equals more chances like that. And you're right to point out, I think that there seems to be sometimes two standards in Winnipeg. And that was something Rick Bonas was meant to address and erase. And to his credit, a lot of that stuff has at least changed this year. You can see it in Blake Wheeler's loss of captaincy. You know, the message bonus. got was, you know, more players wanted to have voices inside the dressing room. And that was part of that process. And I've heard in and around the Winnipeg Jets that more people feel like

they can speak up this year. And so these are things that bonus was meant to help solve. I also thought, you know, coming out of Dallas that his reputation was partly that he moved out of the Ben Sagan era and into the Jason Robertson era and that some of his success with young players was meant to translate here as well. I know that there's frustrations. And so I thought that that was Winnipeg's point of view for optimism and we would see a change in some of those minutes. Early on, kind of a little bit we did. Unfortunately, Euler's got hurt right off to start the season. But you saw Blake Wheeler come off the first line and move to the second line and things like that. Now down the stretch prior to Wheeler having a sudden like actually kind of a strong two

out of his last three games. He'd gone without a goal, and I think it was 17 or 18 games. His defensive impact was poor. His speed looked to be flagging, and he was still receiving those three to four extra minutes per night to Nicola Euler's was. And it sort of takes a situation where, you know, in December we were saying bonus is, you know,

hitting all the right notes and the bonus ons is real. And, well, I think some of his, you know, issues in Winnipeg's issues, sort of struggling down the stretch here has been a result of, bonus hunch has gone wrong as well. And, you know, that is a frustration and that is a concern for a team tied now with the tiebreaker, but tied with the Calgary Flames. Yeah, let me give you a couple. I promised some Euler stats, right?

I need to, I need to back this up. I can't just be purely an eyedest guy, you know, on this program. I do have to give you a little data to confirm what I'm saying. So this year, as you mentioned, not only does he lead all jets in 5-1-5 points per 60, he is 14th in the entire league just ahead of Carter Berhege and Jack Hughes. All situations point per 60, he's tied for 33rd in the league

with Brady Kachuk just ahead of Kiril Kaprizov and Tim Stutzla. He is scoring at a 70-point pace. He's drawn 17 penalties and taken just three of them. Out of forwards with 500, 5-1-5 minutes this season, he's ninth in shots on goal per minute and first-in-shot attempts generated per minute. With him on the ice at 5-1-5, the Jets control 56% of the attempts, 56% of the high danger chances and 55% of the expected goals and 55% of the actual goals scored.

Clear impact there. And yet, he's ninth on the team in forward usage of 5-1-5. He's playing about 50 seconds per hour more than Morgan Barron, just to put that in perspective. He's seventh on the team in forward usage in all situations playing 1549 per game, which is less than Mason Appleton on the season. And the most frustrating part for me is I think parts of his games certainly lend themselves to being a, you know, there's more transition involved at 515 at even strength. So it makes sense that would be his bread and butter.

But you see, and you've noted in your writing, about what a threat he can be going downhill off the flank on the power play. And you see the sort of cross-seam action that can create and the chances he can set up on a silver platter, Brooke Al-Connor. And yet for years now, and this isn't just a rig bonus thing, this has been going on for years. He can't seem to make his way onto that first unit powerplay full time. and I just, it's beyond, I don't know, I'm out of words, it's beyond frustrating to me to see this time and time again. And so I did want to note all those things just to reflect how efficient he's been, what an impact he's made,

and then how he's not used in a way that's commensured at all to what a star player he appears to be. I mean, that was a compelling string of evidence back to back to back to back. I'm sorry to unleash that on you, but I had to. I know the listeners are like, why is he so passionate about Nick Eelers, right now. And I know I've seen the I've seen the arguments right of like well he's probably not a hundred percent either they're like kind of like handling his minutes carefully because he's hurt or they're ramping him up. And at the end of the season, whenever the jet season does end, I wouldn't be surprised to see a press release that Nicolars has undergone another surgery or something.

Like that's certainly within the range of outcomes. But if he's out there, I'm going to view him as an option to play more and he's not being used accordingly. Yeah. I mean, I don't know. I don't believe that he's nursing something horrible right now, but he did have that abdominal surgery early on in the season after, you know, he started tremendously well playing, I think, with Mark Schaifley and Kyle Conner, and then he gets hurt, has the surgery. And that sort of sports hernia abdominal surgery is one that a lot of players have come back

slowly from. It didn't happen to him. His first few games back from the injury, he was on fire. Everything was going in. And then there was a little mini slum. And that's when I think some of the, hey, is he still nursing something? Is he, you know, is he skating with the same explosiveness? Those types of questions came out.

I think we're seeing Elyler's impact the game. And, you know, to the point where all those numbers that you mentioned, all of the production, all of the fact that Winnipeg needs exactly what he does, I mean, you've just painted him in an absolutely elite light. And, you know, I think that no matter what he's feeling, if you need to make the playoffs, I think that would sort of overcome that within the culture of hockey. The other thing is like some of the reasons that you see his minutes so low. Like part of it is he is not prioritized as much as the Shifleys-Conners and Wheelerses of the world.

And I think that's just a full stop statement. Another part is that sometimes you see in-game management where bonus will decide that a certain winger can't be trusted. He'll put two centers out to take a draw. Or maybe not two centers, but an extra winger with size. So picture Winnipeg defensive zone face off late in the second period. You know, bonus is calculating that defense is more important here. And you'll see, you know, when Eelers was playing on the offside his right wing, you'll see Mason Appleton or Sacco Mena Linen or something like that come on to take an Euler's shift.

And I've asked Rick Bonas about that before. He says it's about breakouts. And if a puck gets rimmed to a winger on the half wall, the defenseman from the other team is going to be pinching down the boards. That winger is going to be under tremendous amount of pressure. And I want big, strong players who will absolutely get the puck out. What I haven't seen is a demonstrable impact that Eelers is any worse at converting that play into transition than a Mason Appleton, a Blake Wheeler, even a Kyle Connor, who never seemed to see his minutes come back down. all those other sorts of things. There are a lot of micromanagement reasons why Euler's will suddenly miss a shift or part of a shift

that reduce his ice time that I think are sort of missing the forest for the trees. It's such a small portion of hockey and then what happens after the puck gets moving? Well, that's Eelers' bread and butter, right? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, when things really reached ahead that game in San Jose, right, he played 13 to 49 in that game. And then all the questions really like, the intensity was cranked up to maximum of like, okay, this can't keep happening.

Why is this happening? And then you got those quotes from bonus. Well, last night he played 1458, just over a minute more in that game. And I understand, you know, for the first two periods, it was pretty much just a special teams contest. And he's not out there killing penalties for them.

And guys like Kevin Stanlin and Sacramento line and did a really nice job at keeping the flames power play in check and creating some chances of their own and did a phenomenal job in that regard. But I just, in a game like that of that importance, then you wind up looking at the end of it and you score that one goal in the power. play which you lose created and that's it and the offensive issues keep recurring for you i just that

that's not good enough right like he plays less than eight minutes through the first two periods and then and then when you know the urgency really kicks in when they're down two goals late in the game then it's kind of like inflating the total because you're just getting them out there i want to see that throughout the entire game like i just you can't allow these games to get away from you like this because i don't think this jet's team and and you can correct me if i'm wrong on this has enough margin for error like it's already been shrinking for the past couple weeks and now it's at the point where like they need to optimize every single shift in every single game basically they can't afford to just keep giving stuff away and for all the offensive

struggles they've had i just you're right like worrying about what's happening on the wall on those breakouts and allowing that to dictate your ice time and decision making while you're consistently scoring zero goals one goal two goal in every single game i just don't understand how you can kind of reconcile those two things at the same time yeah i think that you know there's a key there which is like 1-0 up early or 1-1 heading into the third and a whole bunch of shot attempts is still not a win, right? Like there's been a sense in Winnipeg. And I mean, even over there, a huge slide and their struggles to score,

their ability to generate attempts and generate zone time and all those sorts of things has been pretty good. It hasn't been markedly different. But if you kind of zoom into how that game looks, Well, Winnipeg has often found itself down early in games and then pinned and hemmed on the outside and they're getting lots of shot attempts and not quite getting the finishing. And I think that they've hung their hat on that a little bit, whereas a different perspective might be one nothing through, you know, an early stretch against the flames or one when heading into the third period isn't enough no matter what was happening. And optimizing it by playing a guy like Eelers who can actually get you into the middle through his speed and through his passing and shooting as well. I mean, to me, that seems like one, nothing isn't good enough.

Let's go for two. Let's go for three, et cetera, et cetera. As I say that, just to counter my own thought, you know, Calgary did get its tying goal on a Jets three on one. So it's not like they pulled the gas off entirely, but in terms of that roster and lineup optimization that you're talking about, they kind of did. Yeah. Yeah. that sounds like the difference in philosophy of like trying to win, whereas trying not to lose or kind of trying to like conservatively get by. And that's a recurring issue. And that's

that I think that's what we're hitting on here. All right, let's take a quick break while we still can here. And then when we come back, we're going to keep chatting about the Jets and a couple other things I've got on my list to talk to you with. You're listening to the Hockey PEO cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Your number one spot for flames coverage can be found on Flames talk with me, Pat Steinberg, exclusive interviews, trusted insiders, and the latest news. Listen live weekday afternoons and four or stream the Flames Talk podcast on demand.

All right, we're back here in the Hockey PEOCast, talking about the Jets. You know, we were talking about the team's offensive struggles of late and how they still are generating chances and shot attempts, but haven't been looking at scoring goals or being able to convert on it. And I was looking this up.

So they started the year 31. and 16 and 1, right? They were sixth in the league, I believe. They were tied with the stars for first in the West at the time. They were 10th in scoring, fifth in goal suppression. And since then, and you're not going to be surprised to hear this because you've obviously been living this and covering it a day-to-day basis, but they are 12, 16 and 2, which is 25th in the league in point percentage. They've been outscored 91 to 74, which is also 25th in point percentage. And the offense is just completely dried up. They're scoring about 2.4 goals per 60, which is dead last in the league. Now, it is accompanied with also the league where a shooting percentage

and it's gone down from like 11 to 7.5 or something and that's obviously part of this story. And it would be unfair to be like, all right, well, that's entirely self-inflicted because we know that there's randomness involved to that. But this is where the decisions on like how you want to play over the course of a game in terms of who you're using, how you're utilizing them, what you're doing based on score states matters. And so I think that's why I'm kind of identifying. this is my biggest issue with this team because you watch a game like the flames game they score one goal and that is just a recurring thing and i've seen points made of how oh well you know Connor hellabuck came down earth a little bit after a hot start so this is what's happening

and certainly his shooting his state percentage has dropped a little bit but he's been far from the problem in my opinion yeah i would see it the same way he did come back down to earth and there was a four or five game stretch where you were sort of scratching your head and thinking thinking, oh my goodness, I mean, like, this is not Hella Bucky in, and you could make the argument that he cost them a game or two. Over the aggregate, he wins them so many games, and he didn't stay in that value of performance for particularly long either. So, yeah, no, I'm not really looking at goaltending as the singular issue with the team. There's a point that you made in the first half about margins, you know, the margins per error with the Winnipeg Jets. And I think that that is how I'd want to frame my own perspective on this too, is that it's not

that they've been playing horribly. They are getting attempts. They are getting shots. They are getting the types of shots that you might imagine going in more than scoring one goal against the flames or getting shut out by the San Jose sharks of all teams. This is a PDO bender of the worst kind that the Winnipeg Jets are on. And at the same time, well, okay, if you're going to. to acknowledge that you can go on a bad run of you can call it luck you can call it you know something

that's going to regress back towards the mean you can talk about how all of these bounces are probably making some of the guys squeeze the stick a little extra hard the confidence not quite there the timing goes off and all those sorts of things there's real live human effects of a slump like this as well but it comes back down to acknowledging that these things happen in hockey and i think it's on the coaching staff to do what it can to minimize minimize the cost of that. And that's by addressing things like margin of error. So all of a sudden, this one shift where you know,

you're trusting Shifley for a defensive zone draw just because he's right-handed and not because he's ready to PK or you don't play Nikolai Elyer's in accordance with his impact, well, that's when those things start to feel like they cost you, even when the game is more or less, you know, within the flow of play of the Jets a lot of the time. Especially when it's a 30-game sample now that you're talking about, right? and in the second half of the season at that where you have this big lead you've you've kind of accumulated slipping away from you in real time it's i just wanted to note that because

I think in that stretch they're like 13th in the league in team save percentage right and so it's it kind of reflects it certainly a drop from the top five you know besna conversation season that hella buck was having at the start but i think there's much bigger um issues at recurring issues at play here And, you know, with that, let's pivot a little bit to talk about Kyle Connor because I think he's having one of the stranger seasons of any top player in the league, right? Last year, he scores 47 goals in 79 games. I think it was like tied for fifth most in the league. Now he's down to 31 in 78. And it's not only that, but it's the way he's come about it, right?

Like it feels like there's been these very prolonged stretches where there just been complete droughts that we haven't really become accustomed to seeing from them. I know that every goal score in the league is streaky, right? But it's just something that doesn't seem like it was in his sort of range of outcomes based on past performance. And then you get into the fact that he's technically generating more, you know, shot attempts and high danger chances on a permanent basis than he ever has in his career. Yet he's getting fewer of them on goal and his efficiency has dried up a bit as well. He's still not, it's not necessarily a PDO Bender. I think his shooting percentage is perfectly fine, maybe a bit low. but I don't know.

What are your kind of thoughts on Connor and sort of the season he's had and how this ties into this conversation of this team's very strange kind of like offensive statistical resume? Well, one of the hallmarks of, you know, it's slide from tied for tops in the Western Conference and, you know, sometimes owning the Central Division lead

and all of that sort of stuff to where we are now is a general inability to score. And Kyle Connor started the season hot. He had last season's, you know, 90 plus, points to talk about set a new Jets 2.0 franchise record for points in a season. But I would say he is absolutely emblematic of Winnipeg's offensive struggles in the last month or two. And it unfortunately goes beyond the he's getting his looks and he's getting his chances.

And into the, he's getting his chances, but he doesn't look like Kyle Conner when he's taking him. There's a sense of speed and confidence and assertiveness to Kyle Conner's game that, you know, his hands, his vision, his ability to think at a rate faster than the goaltenders and defenders that he's attacking is a hallmark of his game for me. And that to me takes confidence. There's no Winnipeg Jets player who I traditionally trust more than Kyle Conner to score once he's got the puck from about the top of the circles in, because he'll find a way. Well, the problem is, as that slump went on, there were plays that he was making where the shot did not look remotely like

Kyle Conner's shot. The assertiveness didn't look like Kyle Conner's assertiveness. And you could look at the end of the day and you could say, okay, well, he got this many shots. But if you're going by eye test, they're not, they're not those, well, he's pulled a whole bunch of people out of position because he's so fast. They're not the types of finish that you'd expect from him either. And you mentioned his shooting percentage is more or less in line. He did not look to me like a sufficiently dangerous player. And the unfortunate thing for Kyle Connor is that his defensive impact is such that he needs to score else he's hurting the team. And I think he wears that in most rooms he walks into. You can tell the disposition is different when he scored a couple in his last little

while like he has in the last week or so compared to the months following that. I mean, he wears that. He knows it's on him. And I think he struggled with maybe the pressure is that slump built up. Yeah. The effort along the boards on, I I think it goes this door-off goal yesterday. Like, it's, it's not good enough. And that's what I think of. I was mentioning earlier about how, like, some of the flaws,

some other players on this team have and maybe how they're treated differently than Nikola Eilers is for whatever his perceived flaws are or kind of wrongdoings on the ice. And it's just, it's always strange to me, like the perception of his reality in some of these players, because I was actually, for all the defensive issues and kind of how he needs to compensate it for it

with goal scoring and elite shooting efficiency, see I was pretty blown away to see that this is the fifth straight year now where Kyle Connor has been outscored on the ice when he's been on the ice at five on five, right? It's always been by like a couple goals here or there. It's not like he's getting absolutely cratered. But that's pretty stunning, even for a player with the goal scoring and power play positives that he can bring to the table that for his reputation and the way he's talked about, especially compared to Nicola Eilers, I think that's pretty stunning to kind of wrap your

head around and consider. Yeah, I think that's just the way. that certain types of play stick in, sticking people's emotions. Kyle Connor doesn't make the drop paths to absolutely nobody that people who are ragging on, you know, offensive players remember and take with them forever.

You know what I mean? Like offensively, whether he's scoring or not, he's taking predictable routes. He's jumping into lanes at the right times. And he's generally not prior to this, you know, enormous slump that he's sort of getting out of.

Like he's not burning plays. Nikola Iiler's meanwhile, you know, is transitioning better, is spending time outside of his own zone a little bit more often and generally out scores his opposition, as you pointed out as well. But he also comes with the, hey, he just put a breakaway into somebody's pads or he, you know, curled up and gave the puck away and it led to transition for the other team. There's just more moments of confusion that I'm imagining that not only linemates, but coaches look at and go, oh my God, this again. where I think that this is where data has such an important role to play in the context of sport is zoom out and think about it and be like, well, he still creates so much more than those moments. And this other player, Kyle Connor, who scores a lot too, creates a lot of problems in his own zone because, you know, his former coach Paul Maurice once told Maratettech that he never had to show

Kyle Conner defensive video. Like, I think that there's been a slow playing of the importance of wing or defense in the Winnipeg Jets ecosystem for the last little while. And then when you look at it, okay, Kyle Conner gets beat on the wall or something like that. I don't think that's resonating in people's memory as much as their, oh, he scored a phenomenal goal. And that's why he's a little bit more untouchable minutes-wise, despite disparate results and outcomes a lot of the time, including two very important months of this

season right here. Yeah. Yeah. I imagine if you pull people, coming away from yesterday's game, it's going to be, oh, well, Kyle Connor scored their only goal as opposed to, oh, well, he kind of made a bit of a business decision by not

aggressively contesting a kind of at the blue line there and all of a sudden Nikita Zorov gets to walk in, wide open, uncontested for a goal that pretty much puts the game away. It is interesting how that stuff sort of resonates and stays with your mind after the game. And you're right, that is why we look at numbers

because it allows you to sort of, with clear eyes, emotionally detach yourself, I guess, from what you're seeing because even for myself, I can come away from a game and be like, oh, man, that player was miserable. And then I look and I'm like, oh, there's actually, it was, they were a net positive. And I think once in an isolated game, you should value your eyes. But over the course of a season and especially five years now, I think there's clearly other little things that are happening than that you're just maybe not valuing correctly if you're

coming away with a certain conclusion. 100%. That's, that's the way I like to see. it. Like I see people post, you know, the game report cards and they're all data-based or, you know, all that sort of stuff over the course of an individual game. And I'm like, well, okay, but, you know, we're still at a point where, you know, Mason Appleton against San Jose last week during that 3-0 shutout, he gets the puck in the middle of the circle. James Reimer is out of the net because of a previous rebound. Rimer dives across the net gets his paddle on it. Well, that registered as I think something like it was in the teens' expected goals-wise percentage, like 8. percent chance of scoring on that shot. I'm like, okay, in a single game, you really got to trust your eyes because you know where the defenders were, you know what that moment looked like. But zoom out a little bit, you know? I don't know you have to get to 20 games, which is the standard, just to have some sensibility. But zoom out. And if a trend exists that long, a player as good

as Kyle Connor, you would expect to outscore his opposition. If that's not happening, then maybe there are different usages that should apply to how you get the most out of a player. like that. And maybe he's the player who, uh, whose minutes come down when he's slumping or who you give a certain center to like Pierre Luc Dubois who can play a little bit better down low than say Mark Sheifley would alongside all these sorts of things is I think on, but it's, it's on the coaches then to figure out how to get the most out of this brilliant, gifted offensive player who then gives a lot back in his own end as well. And you don't see that as much with him. I'm curious for your take on this. So let's play out the next.

week and potentially even, you know, a first round series or whatever if Winnipeg does make it. And despite how leak the last 30 games have been, as we mentioned, there's still, you know, a relatively heavy favorite to come out and win that second wildcard spot in the West and make the playoffs. Do you think that this is contingent on how the season ends in terms of the optics and sort of the lasting taste that's left in people's mouths in terms of how this organization approaches this coming summer in terms of how widespread and sweeping their decisions on personnel are and how aggressive they are and whether it's taking a step back or retooling on the fly or making significant changes with his core.

Because I heard, I forget on what program Elliott Freeman went on and he was talking about how like there's a sense that, you know, there's going to be significant changes. And as soon as someone like him starts saying that, it's clearly not coming out of nowhere. It's because of things that they're hearing. I'm curious for your take on like how contingent all of those decisions are. over whatever happens over the next, say, week to month. I mean, Winnipeg's facing some roster pressure and some ticking clocks and time bombs

in terms of contracts coming to an end that are going to necessitate change almost regardless. And I'll get into those. But I think that with this core at this point, we've seen enough seasons of underwhelming performance that I don't know. Like the emotional impact of missing the playoffs back-to-back seasons, especially this one after the way that it started,

would resonate throughout the fan base, throughout management, I would hope. And I would think that that kind of intensity would necessitate kind of a top-down look at things. I mean, you know, has Kevin Shevoldeoff's constant assertion that this core is good enough? Well, is that true? Where is he getting that information from?

Is, you know, is there a sense that the leadership needs to? change. And, you know, I've heard Mark Chitman characterized as a hands-off owner. That's not true. I don't believe that at all. I mean, I think he participates in active, you know, he has an active role in some of the decisions made. And I should think that a failure of the scale that would be missing the playoffs would necessitate a complete rethink of how Winnipeg goes about its business from top to bottom. Will that happen? I'm not sure. About what yours, oh, sorry, go ahead. Well, I was I'm going to say the reason why I'm kind of hinting at something, right? The reason I'm framing this is it's one thing to be like, all right, well,

Pierre Luke Dubois is an RFA this summer and he's more than telegraphed his desires and his personal mission on where he wants to play. But it's another to be like, all right, well, Wheeler, Schifley, Hellebuck, Neederide, Dillon, and DeMello are all in their 30s with one year left on their deals. And rather than playing this out with this core, if we make some serious changes here in terms of trading all these guys to contenders in various moves, we could recoup significant capital that could help us now. That would be more long-term view.

And for this organization, I guess I'm not sure what the appetite is to take such a calculated step back because of all the optics and I guess like all the angst and turmoil and how frustrated everyone in the market has been over the past couple years with the direction of the team. Yeah, I think that that makes sense. And if you're Winnipeg, I think even though Blake Wheeler has been a bigger part of the team and Mark Scheifley and Connor Hellebuck, I think some of the decision making does hinge on Pierleuque Dubois. And that's why you heard it leaked about a week ago through Darren Dregor that Winnipeg's going to do absolutely everything you can to sign Peerleague Dubois this summer to a long-term deal.

That's great. But as you said, I think he's more or less telegraphed his intentions. And I'm not in Peerlelelele Dubois's head. He may have had a change of heart. I don't think that I don't, my guess, my guess, guesses that he hasn't. You know what I mean? That's kind of my impression. So if you're the Winnipeg Jets and you are trying to idealize your future, Pierrotouard, this 24 turning 25 year old center who's already kind of a 1B, that's somebody to build around. That gives you some stability.

I don't think that's necessarily stability that they're going to get to enjoy. So then, okay, what do you do? Does that make Mark Scheifley more important to keep around? Because then that gives you some center stability. I think that's the gamble that Winnipeg made last summer. that we could bring back, you know, the thought was that the Jets could bring back two top centers, take another kick at the can. The pressure doesn't really exist until this offseason. I think that's where the core of the decision making comes from because if they can't sort out center and if they can't return assets, if they need to return assets, that more or less

fleshed out the forward group into a playoff capable group. Like Mark Sheifley with a year left on his deal should be able to bring you back somebody. You know what I mean? I don't think you have to gut the team to make that kind of deal. Same if you're moving Pierre-Luc Dubois. But if you fail those moves, Connor Hallibuck is gone. This man wants to win. This man is the most important piece of Winnipeg's winning future. And you have to be able to convince him that you're shaped like a winner to keep him beyond 2024, in my opinion. And I think that's where things really come apart, despite Winnipeg's

disinterest in a rebuild or a retool, I think it's kind of walking, you know, a knife's edge in terms of trying to make the moves or not make the moves that, that, you know, make them look like a sensible contender whatsoever coming out of the summertime. I mean,

I think regardless of what happens with peer league debaa, like first off, I should say, you know, just for context, I view the reputation Mark Shafley has around the league as being inflated compared to what I think is actual on ice value is, but it's clear that the organization likes him and is very invested in him,

he turns 31 next March, right? And he's playing not only that, but at a below market value 6.125. So if even that figure, but let's say you even retain on some of that, I can't even imagine what type of return you could get from a contender who could basically slide him onto their cap sheet without really subtracting from their roster, right? The appeal of that is very intriguing to me. I just think that their emotional investment in this group, and staying not necessarily as contenders, but like on the playoff bubble and relevant and all the stuff that comes along with that, I think is more appealing to this organization than doing like the full tear down and basically ripping the Band-Aid off all at once.

Yeah, I mean, they are invested in Mark Shire, we too, be sure. But I think they also recognize, you know, they had a decision to make last summer about whether they were keeping these guys around or not. And I think that they reasoned that, first of all, they wanted another swing at a playoff spot. But second, you can't afford to get rid of Mark Schaifley on a team that's trying to win if Pierrely Dubois isn't going to stick around. Moving forward, though, I think that they're aware that Mark Schifley's a 31-year-old player who, after scoring it, maybe not this season, but a point per game for, I think, five or six straight seasons, despite, you know, not always having strong teams behind him, that player has value. And he also is setting himself up for a UFA payday that probably greatly outstrips that value as well. So I think that that's a decision Winnipeg is going to need to make this summer.

And I'm not sure myself if I believe that they'll look at a long term, well, I mean, they'll look at it, but if they'll sign a long term extension or decide whether this summer at the deadline or what have you, that this is a player to move, because I agree with you. You know, he's had to be the number one guy through some tumultuous times here. and I think the strain of that has contributed perhaps in part to some of the moments where his game goes AWOL for a little while. I think if you're a contending team and you have a number one and he's your number one A or B or two or whatever you want to call him, you can take a little bit of that pressure off. He's still an elite player when it comes to generating those slot shot opportunities.

He can protect the puck behind the net. He makes dangerous low to high passes. This is not, you know, for all of the consternation he gets, gets in Winnipeg, all the criticism, this is not a player who doesn't help a lot. He contributes an offensive ability and vision and chance volume that few centers do. So I think that if you're the Winnipeg Jets and you're entertaining, moving him, even if you're getting a two-a type center back and maybe a prospect on defense or something, you believe that you're maintaining the type of roster that at least has a puncher's chance of a playoff spot. And I don't think, again,

And you keep hearing they're not interested in a rebuild, not interested in a rebuild. I don't think that there's a playoff catastrophe that could move them off of that position. Well, it'll be a fascinating final week of the regular season and potentially an even more fascinating. Somewhere I'm going topeg. I'm looking forward to following your coverage of it and having you back on the show to discuss all that when the time comes. I'll let you on the way out here, let the listeners know where they can check you out and what you've got in the works. Well, hey, yeah, I'm Maradette. you can find me at theathletic.com covering the Winnipeg Jets.

I mean, we're all over the playoff push and will be with feature stories heading into the playoff run as well. If there's one thing I can point you to, Dimitri, or anybody, I've got this recent Q&A with Connor Hallibuck about mental health and the places that he's gone in his life to sort of strengthen that aspect of his game. I mean, he's been an elite goaltender for a number of years. He has insights and he kind of went deep on this. So let me pitch this Connor Halibuck Q&A.

It's the one that's pinned to my profile on Twitter as well. Awesome. Well, highly recommend that. And this is a blast man. I'm glad we got to do this. Thank you to you. Thank you to the listeners for sticking around with us and supporting the show. We are off tomorrow for the long weekend,

but we'll be back next week with plenty more of the HockeyPedio cast here on the SportsNet Radio Network.