The Hockey PDOcast - Goalie Development and Reading Shots

Episode Date: January 24, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Kevin Woodley to talk about optimal development time for netminders, the art of preparing for saves by reading shots, and fits between a defensive environment and goalie for someone like Jacob Markstrom. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Philippovic. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitra Filipovich and joining me in studios, my good buddy, Kevin Woodley. Kevin, what's going on, man? Not much. It's the new year. We're headed towards, I guess I cringe when I was just about to say like the All-Star break, but that means the All-Star game.

And I think the goalie in me automatically has to cringe at the thought of the All-Star game. But other than that, everything's great. Well, it's always great when I have you in studio. I should say we have to acknowledge. off the top. It's a pretty tough day in the world of hockey, right, with the news that came out today. And so we're certainly not going to delve into that today just because that's not really what I do on this show. We try to provide a real reprieve and have some fun here and talk about hockey in an informative way in terms of what's happening on the ice. And so hopefully we can provide that for people here,

but I did just want to acknowledge that because I don't think it feels weird to get here. And I love talking to you about all these off-the-cuff outside-the-box ideas. We're going to be making Dragon Ball Z-Ref. and talking about made-up goalie stats, right? But there's, like, actual important stuff going on. And I think a lot of people who listen to this show are having a tough time right now. And so I just wanted to acknowledge that. And, you know, we're going to try to provide some reprieve here and have some fun. So we've got some topics from the Discord that I want to get into with you.

Our listeners certainly delivered. And here's a fun one to start us off with because I love pitching you on these ideas without giving you any notice because then I can see your sort of spontaneous reaction. I can see the wheels turning in your head as you're thinking about it. And then we can start talking through it, right? So depending on how much coffee you've had as well, sometimes that engine rears pretty quickly, sometimes it takes a bit of time. It might be a little slower today.

We'll see today how it goes. So Dr. Sanchez asks, Goleys seem like a bit of a crapshoot at the draft. Would it be better for them to be drafted a few years later in their development or would not having access to NHL resources hurt them more than it helps? Oh, it's a great question. And I hadn't even thought of the second part because my easy answer to the first was going to be, yeah, of course. I mean, the reality is you look at junior leagues in Canada, they're typically not even starting by the age.

You need to make a pick on them. You don't get to see them all that often. And so much of the position is about experience in terms of being able to sort of, you know, to make the Mitch-Corn reference. You know, goaltending is not a game of shots. It's a game of patterns. And to put those patterns together takes time and experience. and most of them don't have that much at that point. So a longer look would certainly help

and sort of see how they mature and how they handle because so much of the games between the ears as much as between the pipes and we just have such limited viewings by that point. Would they... You know, I'm going to say... No. I'm going to say that it would be better

to the second part. Like would they lose out on that development time? Because the reality of that development time for most of them, you know, in the two years after the draft, what? A development camp once a summer? check in from the development coach. And listen, some organizations do a great job of keeping tabs.

I know others do this. I'm not singling out Vancouver as the only one. There are others. But I know, for example, here in Vancouver, their development coach, Marco Taranius, doesn't spend all his time with the American hockey league team. When the AHL team travels, not every time, but there are times where he then takes that time

to, for example, go to Prince George and work with the young man that they drafted a couple of years ago. Of course, his name's escaping me. because I have not had enough coffee today. But, you know, you find those windows to work with your college or go see how they're doing, talk to them about their game, progressions, what you're seeing, what you'd like to see change, work with the goalie coaches that they're working with.

But I think for the most part, those touches are so small that you would have less misses by having a few more years to see before you picked as opposed to the development path starting because of those moments. Well, I think historically it's been established that age and curves for skaters and goalies are wildly different, right? We know through a lot of data now that skaters, especially forward, peak at a very young age, right? Kind of in their physical prime when they still got the speed and they can utilize it

most effectively. And so if you're waiting until you're getting them into the NHL by 23, 24, 25 years old, you're missing on a lot of highly productive seasons. For goalies, we know that that typically comes later for a variety of reasons. I guess my question for you is as the game and the product in the NHL changes, right, with the physical demands of like how fast the game is, how much more East-West action there is now, how much teams are attacking off the rush and kind of,

I think forcing goalies into more athletic movement, I guess, right, to get from post to post or to try to cover a certain amount of ground, if that's going to change as well in terms of whether it's going to be reasonable or optimal to ask a 34-year-old goalie to keep up with the physical demands of the position where it's always certainly been difficult, especially on your hips and your lower body, like just getting a knee, just getting up and down that often and having to do so like that. Like it clearly takes its toll over time, right? But I think I wonder if like we hear so much about how, you know,

edges and movement in terms of going post-to-post for goalies is becoming such a valuable skill, That would seem to me like it would carry over similar to skaters, where earlier in your career you'd probably excel more at that and rely on it more than you might later on in your 30s. Yeah, no, I guess from a physical standpoint, you know, you could probably make the same arguments in terms of peak. It's just that the game is so different, right? Like the skilled forward can go out there.

And especially now in today's NHL, have opportunities to show off that skill. And the mistake he makes mentally, whether it's a read on the back check or positioning along the boards or not chipping a puck out, not being where he's supposed to be because of a mental mistake doesn't always end up in the back of the net. And it's the mental mistakes. And that's where I talk about the experience and the play reading and the evolution that comes into it takes a little more time.

Typically for goaltenders to sort of get comfortable, especially at the NHL level. Now that said, like that's sort of just in part because they don't get the reps at early ages like even in junior right like the 19 and 20 year old starters 17 and 18 year olds don't typically get those reps so they're behind right away in terms of being able to make those reads and get opportunities to get that experience um so i mean i'd be curious to see like we're seeing this pendulum swing a little bit not to the extremes of 18 and 19 year olds but i think we talked about it last time and i'm seeing increasing examples like forever and ever we were told the nchel was not a development league and then the players came in and had young skill and talent and scoring

abilities that you couldn't ignore now I've had coaches tell me and Lindy rough even I asked him this question like not just goalie coach it's like hey is this now a development league for goaltenders and the answer is yes because they don't have a choice in a lot of cases right whether it's salary cap or just a scarcity of proven experience guys or just the potential of the young guy being more valuable to you as an organization than the veteran who maybe has already started that aging curve and has the experience but physically can't keep up, we are seeing the NHL become a development league for goaltenders, guys getting opportunities to learn on the job that weren't there even three, four years ago.

Well, I would argue there's just, it's also out of necessity because there's no alternative. Like I remember, I think back to the conversation we had maybe a couple times ago, where it's all right, it's all right, it makes sense of the mental reset and sort of just getting away from the NHL and everything that entails and just trying to get your game back on track, right? But the issue is that all of a sudden you're facing significantly different level of competition in terms of shooter talent in terms of the way teams are playing, how fast it is. I think the schedule as well, right?

That's a game of mistakes too down there, right? And so you can't read clean off a game where everything is a mistake, not everything, but there's a lot more offense created off mistakes, whereas the NHL guys are typically where they're supposed to be. That's a lot tougher game to process for a guy who's already been playing in the NHL and his reads are based on that level of sort of talent and execution consistency compared to what you get in the American League. Right.

And it makes sense to me when a goalie is 1819 and they just got drafted and they're coming out a major junior or even a bit later and they've had a few years of college experience under their belt, I think that's so different from the pro game that getting some reps and some experience at that level makes sense to me in terms of like the transition to the NHL. But for goalies that are coming from, let's say Europe, especially for high pedigree goleys. Like I think of a Yarslav Ascarol, for example. And obviously it's a big adjustment coming from Europe to North America

and learning the language and acclimating yourself and all that. Like I get why the predators, even if they didn't have U.S. Soros, would probably want to take it slowly with getting him ready for this level. But I wonder, like, preparing the HL, I don't know for a goalie if it really gets you ready to step into the net and face, eight shots from Austin Matthews the next night. Like I don't, it's a really good point. But I think it's also apples and oranges from some of the leagues in Europe.

Like the style of play, things you get away with as a goaltender over there, the amount of space in the leagues that are using the bigger ranks. Like the time, like, so it is tough. Like, where do you find that spot? And, you know, I'll give you the example. Like, look at Dustin Wolf. Like, has he got anything left to prove in the American Hockey League? Like, of course, you're always trying to evolve and continue to get better.

But as long as Calgary is, like, grinding for a playoff spot and both the other two guys, are healthy and and and again Vladar after a slow start actually really picked up I got to give him credit like the start was early in the year I was like man how much longer can they leave wolf and the miners and didn't mean it to be pointedly critical of Vladar but it wasn't a great start for him he's he's picked it up but so if you're the flames it's like and we know this guy's going to be a part of our future we believe he's going to be an NHL goalie but when the hell are we going to find a time to let him learn on the job because there is that element of it yeah I don't think there's necessarily a right answer I just think of, and the Askerab one, right?

Because he started slow last year, like, in his first, however many games in the HL, and then I think he had a really good second half. And this year he's like a 9-22 percentage in Milwaukee playing for their HL affiliate. And I will say the one thing, like, there's more direct play in both the A8. There are more similarities in terms of some of the styles of attack. Maybe the execution isn't there and the skill level of the shooters isn't there. But there are more similarities between the NHL and the American Hockey League in terms of how everything is funneled to certain areas.

the boards from behind the net, the way attacks originate. Frankly, then there are when I watch KHL hockey. And so in his case, as much as it's not the perfect adjustment, I think it's probably a necessary adjustment. And we hear that for other established pros in Europe. Like there is this, you know, difference that requires some time to get acclimatized to. Like everything just is on top of you so much quicker here than it is in Sweden or Switzerland or Russia. and there's just so much less time.

And you have to be your save selections in terms of, you don't have to be a blocker, but you have to be in a just fill space mentality more often and sooner than you do over there where everything is past, past, past, and you have an ability to set square and react. There are times when you're just trying to make sure you've got the bottom of the ice sealed and as much of the top covered as you can

because everybody's just finally crapped in the net and trying to shovel it home. And that's way more prevalent here than it is there. It is. But I guess the question from a team-building perspective for me, like when it comes to contract time or extension time, right? I think Ascarov his ELC is up after next season. And how many games of NHL experience is he going to have at that point? And then obviously he'll still have RFA rights and for years down the line.

So the predators aren't up against the clock or anything. But if they sign him into a two, three-year bridge deal and he's still not playing a max amount of games, then all of a sudden you come up to a point where you have to make a lot of, a really big financial decision with pretty limited available information in terms of feeling like certain about how good this guy as we always talk about how volatile performance is the position and how all right you can have 15 20 good games can you do that three four years in a row where you're playing 40 50 60 games potentially even and until you see that you don't really know yet teams are getting into the spot where you're all of a sudden dealing with a 25 year old goalie

with very limited sample size and you're trying to figure out how much to commit to him and whether he's going to be your starter or whether you should look elsewhere. You're doing yourself a bit of a disservice, I guess, in terms of accumulating information to make an educated decision. Yeah, and at the same time, like you said, if you're grinding for a playoff spot, do you... Right. Can you afford to throw him in there?

You know, like the Wolf example, right? Like, I believe he's ready to be an NHL goalie, but there are obviously there's some growing pains. And especially, again, we've talked about Calgary. Like, it's taking them a while to start to find their legs defensively as they made some changes to how they defend in their own. own end. Markstrom's like, I know

last night gets beat on the deflection late in the game and it's a costly one for them but like, you know, heading into that game led the league and goals saved above expected in part because the environment was so tough so you're throwing Wolf in there. It's like at the end of the day there's no perfect answers. Like it's

that's the thing. It's like breaking down video with these guys like there'll be times where I'm doing our pro reads where we're watching saves and they'll be like I didn't like that. Like yeah I made the save I got there but here's what I think I could have done better when they're reviewing, you know, film with me. And the inevitable answer that comes back as we go back and forth is like, that's fine because the game's not perfect and you can't be perfect as a goaltender. And I think the same thing applies to, you know, how we get these guys ready for the NHL.

There is no one size fits all solution. I like the teams. Like I like, I know Buffalo's come under a lot of scrutiny, but teams and they're not the first, but they use the American Hockey League as a chance to keep a guy playing, even though he's on the NHL team, sending him back for a weekend if you know he's not starting that game on a Saturday night rather than have him sit on the bench. Columbus did it.

I'm trying to think of who they did it with. Tarasolov, I believe. Yeah, it might have been with him. They did it before as well. I'm trying to, geez, brain cramp on who they did it with. Corpusolo, I think. I think it was Corp. Yeah, back when they had Brabler.

And Nashville did it with, I mean, we talked about Nashville. Nashville did that with Soros, right? So there are different ways you can find to sort of, to try and bridge that gap. But at the end of the day, as it becomes a development, it's a lot easier for a team that's not in the playoff race

to treat it like a development position for a young goalie than it is a team that's kicking and screaming to get in. Did you see this interview that first it was Connor Hellibug's dad on one of the big sports talk? Yeah.

Then it was Connor Hullabuck right after. Is this the 11-year-old old? Is this the 11-year-old? Yep. On NHL network. And this was the, so Connor Helbach's dad tells a story

about how they're like at a at a shop essentially looking at sticks, right? And Con is just looking at player skaters sticks as opposed to the goalie ones and his dad is asking him why. And he's like, look at this blade, like, what do you think is going to happen when a shot comes off this one and him wanting to essentially study

and then like memorize all these so that he could prepare himself for what was to come off the shot off the blade, right? And then he gave this interview where he was talking and it's a concept you and I have spoken about quite a bit over the years where goalies in scramble positions and sometimes like just trying to get back to the middle of the net because shooters will generally, even at this level, just try to get it there. And he had a really interesting comment there.

I actually wrote it down just so I didn't like paraphrase or miss something. He said in those split-second moments, we already have an idea of where that puck's going. Because if you're trying to read a puck in the NHL or react to a puck in the NHL, you're already too late. And so we've spoken quite a bit about this and just concept of like how to prepare for a shot, I guess, and especially now this Cadmouse game between goalie and, shooter and shot selection and save selection where you're trying to read it off the blade but now

these guys are coming into the league with years of experience already where how to disguise it a young age they've been watching YouTube videos and then practicing in the backyard with you know tucking it and then all of a sudden last second letting it rip and you have no chance to really prepare for it I'm just so fascinated by this and I should say one thing that like Hellebuck is at the extreme end of this example and I think the anecdote from his dad which was just awesome um like tells you why Like, not everybody is like this. Not everybody. Like, Hellebuck reads blades and releases,

and more than that, hands, hips. Like, he reads everything. Reminds me a little bit of Craig Anderson who used to not watch the puck in a shootout because he could tell you where it was going based on everything else. So he felt like the shooters were giving him enough clues that he didn't always have to watch the puck, and he used to do drills where he would purposely.

Like, he'd even tell, you always got to warn the coach when you're going to do this. Like, if I'm going to learn how to read a release without becoming too puck focus, I need to see what the hands do. I need to, so pick a time in practice where, you know, hey, coach, don't worry if a bunch of pucks go in here. I'm trying to learn something.

And, like, nobody read the game like Craig. And I would argue that Connor's in that same level, that same stratosphere. And I've had guys tell me, Eric Comrie and Lorenzweboswicz, both like, they've done pro-reeds with us where we'd break down video and they're like, you have to get Connor Hellebuck doing this. And we did this summer. So, you know, shameless plug ingolemagg.com. if you want to see what this actually looks like

when he watches video. I have two on ones where he is telling me that the guy is shooting and sometimes even where and it's not even at the top of the circles. Like he's not worried about a pass because he's already read based on body language what the guy's showing him where this is going. He is an incredibly intelligent goal tender.

Do they all think the game or study the game or do the work? You know, we talk about looking at all those stick blades. To that degree? No. Like that's the reality. Everybody has different. Some rely more on. technique than they do play reading like hell he's just he's a special breed i think that's why you see

the results he's having um and yeah this is this is what goes into it right like this is and this is why in this market here in vancouver when people got all over demko about a tough looking william neelander shot that actually deflected off cars and susy stick and they're like you can react that's it hit the stick around i think the hash marks or maybe inside the circle you can still react to that it's like no no no no no no hold on If you aren't reacting to the initial shot before it even leaves Neelander's blade, you're getting beaten this league. So you're not just reacting to the deflection.

You're having to stop your original reaction and then go back the other way. And the reality is at that point you might be able to move again. And that's why I think it looked awkward because he started to try to go the other way. But unless it hits you, you're in trouble. And that's why I hate to give Don Cherry a plug, but stop sticking your bloody stick in the lane. Let us have a clean look from the outside. We'll handle it.

Well, your biggest nightmare then as a goalie must be that new David Pasternak move that he's done a few times in the shootout. And I'm not talking about the one where he got a lot of flack for it against Colorado, I believe, where he just tried to, like, Oh, you're going to have to educate me here. Well, he did it to UC Soros and Ilya Sorokin. Do pretty good goleys, I think. And it's in the shootout, right? So you're not even necessarily dealing with the threat of, all right, is he going to pass this or is he going to go around the net? Like, you know his shot is coming within a certain period of time, right?

Like, you can't go backwards. so it has to come within a few seconds. And he, like, keeps the puck away from his body and doesn't show you the blade at all. So you can't really even see what's going on with his stick. And then he just absolutely hammers it. And it's the whip on it is nasty, but there's also absolutely zero tell in terms of

if you're looking at the blade and you're saying, all right, I've got some sort of inclination on at least where this puck is going to go. Other than, I guess, if he does it enough times and then a pattern emerges in terms of like, all right, it's going to do in this quadrant of the net. Then I can prepare it. Otherwise, then he'll just do something else to adjust. You know what it reminds me?

We have a conversation with Ryan Walter to go way back to my early days covering the Canucks about Mike Bossy. Go watch Mike Bossy shot. He used to sort of, instead of having his hands out front and his stick wherever the goal he could see it, he used to really have it behind him, according to Wally, and sort of hide it and come through it. And one of the arguably, in my mind,

greatest goal scores of all time, and you, you know, we talk about deception now. You look at how long ago that was, and he used to hide those releases on the goalies by sort of making sure he kept that blade behind him as he wound up rather than holding it out for all to see. So, you know, some of these things have existed for a long time. We just weren't necessarily looking for them.

I'm actually, I remember hearing that story and then being surprised that more guys didn't do it in that whole sort of generation. But the reality is, right, for the longest time, and I've said this before, players just spent the summers getting bigger, stronger, and faster, like the Olympics, while goalies were working on skills. And now that that pendulum has swung towards the players also working on skills,

man, moves like what you just described by Posternak. Like, there's just going to be new stuff. It's never been harder. I said this before. And goalies have told me this position has never been harder in terms of trying to keep up with offense. Well, what you were saying about Hallibuck in terms of sort of the uniqueness of, like, that extreme, right, with this, like, example and the anecdote of it. I remember you also talking, though, about, like, his next generation

of Devin Levi and his utilization of VR and stuff to prepare for this stuff as well, right? Like I just in terms of obviously athleticism and save selection and all that stuff, but I think in terms of like going that extra step to work with your equivalent of a skills coach, I guess, in terms of like fine-tuning little details like that. I imagine that will become more of a norm for goalies who are like 12 years old right now. Yeah, they're not going to have pass or next shoot-up move on there just yet. but like even the mechanics of how you watch a shot right like we've learned a lot about you know we've learned like there's been studies like old ones like quiet eye and how to sort of the key to focus we've learned a lot about the need for binocular vision we talk about which head trajectory the idea of looking through the center of the socket and how if you do it the right way it should set up biomechanics that allow you to stay on a release longer before having to open up or or ideally not open up at all. as you move into a save rather than the old days,

you know, the old like tilt-a-wold big glove save coming behind their ear, that, you know, if you were to really break it down, it's like you're not squaring on the puck with your glove, you're pulling it in a parallel path to the puck, you're actually making it harder for yourself to intercept it and catch it just from a straight geometry standpoint, and you're pulling your torso and basically most of your body

out of the path of the puck of it were to happen to hit something. Like now, like we've studied this from the simplicity of that obvious description I just had what an old windmill glove save used to look like to the actual biomechanics and vestibular function and how the brain and eyes work to make sure we can stay on a release longer and move our body in a way that closes down on it rather than open up the space the way an old windmill glove save would. So there's the studying, there's the, you know, reading the releases, there's the art of those things. And then there's also this science that has been at a, you know, is arriving at a level. frankly we're the only equivalent

I can think of in sports is like a golf swing where we're breaking down like every little bit of the mechanics and the body mechanics to optimize how we move as goal tenders and now the irony is I had this fantastic conversation with Elias Patterson just this past week

in anticipation of the hard of shot contest about the same things and how he has changed how he shoots and again the analogy is golf and golfer's training for swing speed and I'm at you know like because you know we think like do you get bigger and stronger to get a harder slap shot and it's no it's all fast

twitch and how can I how fast can I clear the hips and how am I loading and it's all about training muscles for rotational speed to unleash that slap shot not about getting big forearms and big pipes like sure it doesn't hurt you know sort of that man strength helps yeah but he's training the same way a golfer would to an extent to make sure all the muscles are there to set up load and just explode rotational force through the hips and deliver that to the puck. I think he said he hits it seven or eight inches behind the puck, wants to get the right whip. So the hands like a golf swing, you want the hands ahead of the shaft.

And it creates a bit of that whip through that seven or eight inches. Then it launches in his words like a catapult at the end. They're now doing that same type of work on their shot that goalies have been doing to get in the way of it for a long time. So it is cat and mouse. It's fun to hear these anecdotes. I love when guys are willing to sort of open up and talk about the amount of work that goes into it because I'm a, I think Pete even called me a geek.

And I said that, hey, Johann Hedberg once called me a goalie geek and he said it should be worn as a badge of honor, so I'll take it. I love that when guys want to talk about their craft that way and more and more there are forwards and shooters and defensemen that understand it at a level goalies have sort of always understood theirs. Well, if being interested by that makes you a geek, then sign me up. Oh, I loved it.

My favorite part of the season so far was him walking me through that. That's really cool. Listen, I have a Bachelor of Science in Kinesiology, and yet I still think that was the first vestibular reference on the PDOCast. So kudos to you for dropping that. Let's take a little break here. And then when we come back, we'll pick things right back up and keep chatting with Kevin Woodley.

You're listening to Hockey PEDOCAST streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. Breaking down the top stories in the NHL every day. The Jazz Mary Show. Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get. your podcasts. And we're back here in the Hockipedio cast with Kevin Woodley, Kevin. We did the first half on, I don't even remember what, because, uh, we just, we just talked like, we did, do we had like, we had like, biomechanics, vestibular function, balance, brain,

body connection. Like, we were, we got into the weeds about everything. And we, you know, I didn't, I didn't say expected goals once in the first half. I actually think that's kind of good. It is nice, although I think we're going to say it a lot here. Oh, okay. Oh, okay. Well, a little bit of something for everyone, right?

All right. zombie frog asks I've heard you discuss the value in having a goalie whose strength matches the type of shots their team allows from that from a standpoint of quote unquote types of shots allowed how many different

types of defensive environments are there in the league so I think there's a few obvious ones right there's teams who give up a lot off the rush that's the biggest one in that's probably the most dangerous one in terms of leaving your goalie exposed out of the drive right rush versus end zone 100% we think so much of

of bad defense looking like a horrible breakdown in coverage where both defensemen go behind the net and leave someone out in front and then they get a tap in but in reality that happens so little in today's game it certainly happens and if you watch the bad teams like you'll see it

it happens more yeah for sure but most of the time now the form that that kind of manifests itself in is not only giving up rush chances but ones where they're like immediately great A's right where it's like either a two on a one or a three on two but the third guy is coming in quick and completely uncovered and the coaches will talk about those are the ones we just gave them like when we talk about giving them goals right and so the teams that do that consistently consistently are obviously going to

struggle and i'm with you so it's the first sort of answer to that is rush versus end zone if you give up too much off the rush and i think the oilers have become sort of like my new exhibit a in this right like before the coaching changed they were dead last and high danger chances against the rush 32nd out of 32 teams and everybody wants to wanted to fire their goaltenders into the sun, fire the goalie coach literally. They sent Jack Campbell to the minors. They make the coaching change. I'll give them a weak grace period because that first road trip back east, they were still

giving up those chances. Since then, and I probably should have updated this, but since then, I think they're second or third in the NHL in rush chances against. High danger rush chances against. And so actually, I'll correct myself since November. 16th, which is around, I think around the right time. I mean, we're over two months now. They're first.

Right. They went from dead last to first. And guess what? The goaltending looks a lot better now, doesn't? Listen, Stuart Skinner deserves credit for having gone through as bad as it was and just even mentally navigating that. And his game looks great right now. But I think the point is if you're dead last and rush chances against high

danger giving up of your, and it's not even, that type of bad defense isn't always bad defenseman. It's quite often forward making brutal decisions. and trying to force things and turnovers at the blue line. Like we know what it looks like. No gaps, no back pressure. Like those types of things. Like, I don't care who your goalie is.

You're not surviving for a long period of time when that's going on. So that's the first thing. Beyond that, honestly, within the in-zone structure, there are a lot of different types of plays we can look at. So that sort of eliminates breakaways for the most part. Although you can still have breakaways from the hash marks down off of some of the mistakes in zone that you talked about. Some of the other strengths in areas,

does your team give up laterals in the in zone and on the P-EK? Or are they good at eliminating seams? Particularly down low, right? I know that's something you spoke about quite a day. Like, Hayden Hill and I'm so now in the past. Screens? That's another one. Like, how do goalies manage screens and how does your team defend them? Are you really good at,

are your guys really good at making sure they're in the lane the system says they're supposed to be so the goalie can trust he's in the other lane? and when they're in that lane, do they eat pox or do they get out of the way? Like those are, that's an important thing. Does your goalie a guy, is he a tall goalie that looks over screens and is good at not getting beat low despite that? Or is a guy that has to look around screens? In that case, how do you defend it and does it fit that?

Deflection sort of ties into that as well. Broken plays are a huge way to create offense. But some of that is, hey, is your center low on boxing guys out? Are your defensemen good at clearing that area? Like, how do you defend in front of the net? So those are some of the key ones. I mean, the other ones, rebounds, you know, to me, that's not so much is our, does our environment match our goalie, but you want to look at the goleys and see what types he's giving up.

And if he's giving up a ton of rebounds, hey, are we a defense that does a really good job of boxing out on second chances? Because if we don't and he does, that might be a problem. If he's coming for a team where they were, it didn't matter that he gave up rebounds because they were exceptional at it. And it's going to be a problem on your team, reconsider, right? Like I look at Casey to Smith's been an excellent story here in Vancouver. It's been fantastic. I don't think he has enough starts to qualify for the NHL quote-unquote leaderboard, but his 19-18 would be top 10 if he did.

His environment is like 12 points better than Demko. I think it's a credit to how good a person he is in that room in terms of the extra work he does. You know, out on the ice late. Like teammates love him. They battle for him. And so the one thing when I look at his numbers, like he gives up a lot of second chances,

especially early in the year. He's gotten better at sort of having things. stick to him as the years got on, but early, there was a lot of stuff. Not all rebounds are bad. He was really good at keeping them in front of him rather than kicking them off to the side for an open net, but they've also done a hell of a job in front of him. So does that maybe, if he was a guy you're looking at, and your team isn't as good at controlling that net front area on second chances, does that become more problematic?

It's not meant to be a criticism. He's been exceptional. Just an example. Well, on your note on Demko, I believe the top two teams in the league in suppressing rushing chances against the season. Last I checked were number one, the Vancouver Canucks, which is an amazing transformation from where they were at last year.

They were like the Oilers for the first month and a half. And the Winnipeg Jets are number two, and they've gotten significantly better. And I've spoken a lot on this podcast about some of the tactical stuff they've done from forward activity off the pucked back tracking to how aggressive their defense have been in the neutral zone. But I think unsurprisingly,

and not to take away from what Demko and Halibuck have done, because they've both been phenomenal, but they're number one and two in some order, both in terms of the betting market for the Vesna, but also I think on pretty much everyone's ballot at this point through 50 games. I think an interesting note for that, though, is you look at the game states those two teams are playing in, and maybe this is a bit of a chicken or the egg thing, right?

Because if your goalie's good, chances are you're not going to give up very many bad goals early in the game, so you're going to give your team more time to score themselves, and so you're going to have a lead, and then you're going to be playing from ahead, right, on the scoreboard. but it's interesting that both those two teams I believe are like first and third in terms of how often they've been trailing this season and the Canucks in particular like they've been trailing for I think a matter of seconds over the past 10 games like they just they do not trail at all at this point it's rather remarkable and I'm sure that'll regress a little bit but we know the sort of the tradeoff for score effects is when you're playing from behind you sort of just throw everything on net right because you kind of get into desperation mode where you're you're you're just trying to get as many pucks on net, trying to get back and claw back into a game. And so for a good goalie, that's a pretty good environment all of a sudden because you're getting a lot of the shots we don't typically see in a normal NHL game where it's a lot of stuff from the outside from the point, just trying to get pucks on net, trying to hope something bounces in. And then the inverse is teams that are leading don't have the puck as much, but when they do, it's a counterattack rush opportunity to the other way.

And so if you're a team that's trailing all the time, that's really tough because I'll get to. if you're the goalie, probably you already let in a couple goals to begin with, but also then the next shots you're going to face are probably going to be very, very dangerous ones off the rush, whereas if you're a goalie on a team that's leading 1-0 to 1 in every game, I think you have a much better chance of preserving that. It's kind of this like self-fulfilling prophecy or positive feedback loop where it all feeds into itself, right?

Although I've got to say like Hala-Bucks numbers when they're up a goal are just off the charts. Well, sort of the conucks is though. There was a stat where I think they've lost why, overtime game, but they have no regulation losses after leading through 40 minutes this season. Yeah, the Columbus game, they blew a third period lead and lost in. It was the first time, like, 27 and 0 and 1. Something like that. Like, it's just outrageous.

You know, and the difference actually, I think, actually, when I think about it now, the reason Demko's numbers up a goal aren't the same is because the Canucks tend to go up two or three. Like, that's just the way they're doing it. Whereas the jets get up one, and it's the same type of environment. And then, like, again, Helibox, like, they're absurd. like most of his goal saved above expected, which is a high number,

come with the Jets up won a goal. And I think it's so Demko not being high in that chart, people look at it and compare it and be like, oh, why Satre Demko like sixth on this? Well, because they're never up a goal. They always go up two or three, right? Like it's not his fault. They're up by a couple.

Yeah, the other thing that I've been thinking a lot about it, and I know we had, like, we've had these conversations during the postseason with Wabowski and everything. And it's not anything new, but I just, I've given it a lot of thought because goals save above I've expected is obviously a very useful stat, right, in terms of giving you like environment and workload

and sort of kind of painting a picture of who's doing what with what. But I think one of its blind spots or one of its areas where you need to like think about it a bit more critically is a good goalie on a good team. Because what happens is like the Canucks and Jets have both done such a good job this year in terms of improving their defensive environment, and then they have these two really good goleys behind it, right? Right.

In that case, if you're holding teams to, like, low expected goal value shots from outside the slot or not giving up those lateral plays down low, like 20 shots that are 0.1 expected goals, right? Yeah. That's two expected goals in accumulation over the course of a game. Whereas, like, 5.0.4 shots come out to the, the same amount.

Right. But I think the latter is clearly more likely to result in two actual goals scored, right? Because if you got five grade A's, I think you're more likely to score two of them than shooting 20 very low percentage shots against Thatcher Demko right now. You're probably not going to score twice on that unless something weird happens or he's just off. Yeah, that's fair.

You get to the same result, I guess, but the path you took to get there matters a lot. So I don't know what the right answer is there. That's why I look. That's why I also try and look at adjusted save percentage. Because to me, that's more of a shot-by-shot metric. And I can see what the expected save percentage is, right? Like, you can have a high-expected save percentage, outperform it by a significant margin,

and still end up at 20 goals saved above expected because you're seeing more of those outside shots, but it's going to show up in your expected save percentage. To me, that's also what's making Markstrom's season so freaking remarkable. Do I talk about Markstrom now? Because he's on my topic. Well, I was going to say, because he's like, he's up there with Hellebuck.

and Demko in terms of goals saved above expected. Actually, I think as of right now, as of this morning, because of last night he dipped just below Thatcher Demko. I think on my list in the goals saved above expected, it's Demko 1, Markstrom 2, Connor Ingram 3 and Connor Hellebuck 4 actually by Clariceite Analytics. But when I look at the expected say percentage, like Markstrom's plus 2.7% above unexpected of 874.

874. Like Demko's expected is slightly above league, average at 892. Connor Hellebuck's expected is 898, close to 900. So there you go right there. There's an indication of environment. Like they're almost, you know, in the case of Demko, like almost 15 points higher. And in the case of Hellebuck, almost 20 points higher just based on their baseline expected.

And that's where you get into the sort of the quality versus the quantity. You can still end up at 20. There's no question who had the harder workload. Those are, I mean, I think people when they listen, a show and they hear you say these numbers are generally pretty surprised. Like I think everyone understands that league average, league average 8 percentage is a drop, right? It's like 903 or something right now,

and we know that volumes down, quality of shots is up, shooters are better, like everyone understands those concepts, yet still when you hear, all right, like, I'd expect Jacob Markstrom to have an 874% percentage. That is pretty shocking. Like that's like the average is 885 right now. If he had an 874% percentage right now, like people would be talking about him retired.

Yeah. Well, I mean, people weren't giving him credit when he was around a 900 raw. And when you looked at this, you're like, this guy's playing at a top 5-11. He's not a 9-10 raw, I think, right now. Something around there, yeah. And again, his raw here isn't as high because at the end of the day, when ClearSight sorts shots, they map it out where that puck's released, where the two posts are, whether it has a chance to go in. And there are a lot of pucks that are headed wide that get saved that, I mean, listen, at the goal union, I wouldn't advocate for this, but the reality is they get counted to shots and they were probably going six inches wide.

You're going to have your card. I'm going to get killed. They're going to, yeah, they're going to take, like, someone's going to knock him at the door, yeah. Mr. Woodley, we'd like to take your union card. The reality is the shots get overcounted. Goleys hate it when I say that, but ClearSight sorts this pretty meticulously. And so that's part of the reason why both the expected and what their actuals are will be lower than what people, you know, have come to expect it. It shocks people.

But 874 for Markstrom, like, that is actually shocking. That is shocking low. You want it, you want the shocker enough. I'm biased. I love the kid. think he's a good goalie. And so I throw this out there probably because I think people don't give him a fair shake. Nobody touched him on waivers with an 8-63.

Eric Comrie's expected was 8-50. I've never seen anything like that. That is absurdly low. Like absurdly low. That kid just caught bath in high danger chances when he got in the net in Buffalo. Yeah, Markstrom has been excellent both by those numbers and also I think just by raw ones. Like even a 9-10, say a percentage in today's game. is good. Sport logic has a

at a plus 13 goals able by the expected which is near the league leaders as you mentioned. I think we all expect the Calgary to decline and regress defensively after the coaching change of the off season. I think what's happened here. I got it wrong. I actually thought that you retain some of that identity and DNA. I thought they'd keep some more than they have.

I didn't realize they'd make the changes they have in terms of how they defend it. And that takes time. We talk with Evanton, right? You change how you defend system-wise and now a sudden we talked earlier about reeds. Dimitri, like, and how goalies are trying to read what shooters are doing. All of those reads are also based on what they expect their defensemen to do.

I can't tell you how many times I've sat down for a video session with the goalie and NHL goalie, and they're like, it's not about what the forward's trying to do. It's about I know I can do this because I trust my defenseman to be here and take that away so I can focus on this. And when everybody's learning something new, man, like, how do you read off the potential for your guy to do it the way he did it last year versus the way you're supposed to do it this year? And even with subtle changes, you can have wild swings that way.

And so knowing now that they've made those types of adjustments, I shouldn't be surprised that that environment dipped. I guess let's spin this forward then and talk a little bit about fit. And also, yeah, I had the question earlier, which I think kickstarted this conversation. We get one question perhaps half hour segment. Forget what happened or the order of it. But it was essentially talking about finding the right goalie for the right team

in front of them in terms of what they're giving up and curating that accordingly, right? And there is no perfect answer. Of course. There's no exact. But I can tell you getting Eddie Lack as a guy who didn't retreat off the rush and putting him a Carolina team that when they did give up chances were almost always off the rush and then saying, hey, we want you to get outside of your crease and skate backwards when skating was never the strength of his game. Like that type of stuff you could see in the numbers and in the eye test was never going to work.

Right. So there's a fine line in between things that obviously aren't going to translate and things that we can at least make educated guesses on. But there is no perfect. I'm not sure if you still feel this way or you think this is fair or applies, but I just remember like, and maybe, what, it's two years ago now, three years ago now, when Markstrom was a, as a finalist and he had a fantastic season under Daryl Sutter, right? I think those were a lot of game environments where the volume was pretty low.

I always thought of him as being someone who you wanted to keep stimulated in game. That's how he was in Vancouver. I felt that that brought the best out of him, right? At the same time, though, you want to keep the volume in-game high, but I really think you need to manage his workload throughout a season because I find when you play too many games in a row, discipline goes out the window

both in terms of like going to try and play Pox and save selection and everything. And so it's this weird thing where you want to find him in a spot where he's going to get a healthy amount of work but not have to play that many games. And generally there aren't very many teams that check those boxes because if they're going to rely on them to make a lot of saves in a game, and he's making $6 million, he's probably going to need to play 60 to 65 games and then all of a sudden

I started tugging on my collar and getting a little bit worried now if a team was acquiring him I know he has two years left on his deal after this one but if a team like let's say New Jersey or Carolina although I'm more skeptical on that one would acquire him in season they're obviously you're making a push for this year right so I think anything beyond that is like all right we'll deal with that when the time comes I'm kind of curious for your fit there in terms of whether you like that from a situation perspective because obviously both teams I think they're literally 30 first and 32nd

and in team safe percentage so far the devils and the hurricanes are and so it makes sense why they keep being linked to him but I'm kind of curious for your take on the actual player in that environment. Okay without like doing like the detailed breakdown of what they give up specifically and whether it fits his strengths and

weaknesses because as good as he's been this year there still are strengths and weaknesses to every goalie right and for him one of the things that you know if you want a counter argument to the Vesna conversation to him being leading the league or being second in the league and goals saved above expected, it's that

his numbers take a hit on some of the low danger stuff like he does give up goals that you want your guys to stop and those tend to at times be well not a time like those are tough ones right they hurt a bench psychological yeah there's and we've seen the math on what happens when you give those up

right like teams tend not to win those games um so like to me out of those two I'd pick New Jersey because he's going to be busier he's going to be asked to do more like if you're going to spend $6 million on goaltending it's because you need him to stop bullets in his teeth

and that's when Markstrom's at his best now can he do it the other way I know there are teams out there that are trying to figure that out and they're looking at those Darrell Sutter years because he'd never had to before that and it was an adjustment for him but I thought he figured it out I still think you get your best out of him when he's busy and Lord knows he's going to be busy in New Jersey

to me if I was picking that would be the fit Well, we spoke about this, I think last time I had you on, so we don't need to rehash all the details, but I'll give you sport logic's sort of profile of what New Jersey, what you'd expect from New Jersey, which is offensively, they're 22nd in offensive zone time. So they're having the puck in the offensive zone less frequently as a team,

and they're giving up a lot as a return off the rush the other way, right? and they're actually like they're suppressing offensive zone time in their own zone quite well for the other team but when they're giving up shots they're being graded as really high high danger ones now part of that I think and I think they give up a ton of inner slot shots according to sporadic is because their goalies have been quite bad I think at managing rebounds as well and so when the initial shot comes in the following one is generally a very high danger one from the inner slot and it's winding up in the back of the net and so the other team isn't having to spend 50 seconds in the offensive zone for that shift because it's in and out pretty quickly.

So I think Markstrom obviously would make a lot of sense. Now it's a pretty big commitment for a guy who's, I think, going to be 34 years old next week for two more seasons at that money. But just for the rest of the season, I think it's a very interesting combination. Yeah, and it's just, and, you know, like I said, haven't been able to dig into all those numbers and match them up. You know, some of mine differ, obviously, from sport logic. who doesn't do slot line passes or traffic

the way that these guys do. I just, like, generally speaking, like that feels like a team that needs their goalie to be a hero a lot of times. And for lack of a better term, like, that's kind of when Markstrom's at his best. They need an acrobat. I've messaged you about this anecdotally to my untrained eye.

I genuinely feel like the devil's goalies do not practice. practice moving side to side. Yeah, sometimes you're missing me and it's like, I don't look at the play. I'm like, man, that's a really tough play. I know, but there's times where a player is coming down the wing and it's like, they're so committed to the ice and the rap is such a tough play. You have to actually play it different now. But you're right.

They're not playing it different. They're moving over your geriatric speed from post to post. Come on, Kevin, I know you're trying to win back your union card. It's the biggest rotation in the game for a goaltender is if you, if and this is the question would be, should they be squaring up on the guy coming down the wing? If you stay square on him, by the time he gets to say, let's not go all the way to the bottom of the circle, but even into that area between sort of the bottom of the circle and the face off dot,

like if you're squared up to the face off dot or up to the boards, and then you have to get back to your pose, like the only thing, the only other rotation that's a bigger rotation and having to get your body turned to load up a push, like that rotation is what takes the time, is if you were to actually square up on the goal line, which would be absurd. That's why we've seen a lot more of teams overlap, take that outside leg,

have it outside the post, so you give yourself additional short side coverage. But as the play gets to the bottom and the circle off the rush, purposely flatten out your back side so you don't have to make a rotation. And then the skates loaded outside the post, you're still short side high covered because you're outside the post and you have that additional sort of angle chopped down. And you've basically cheated for, the pump fake wrap and it's an easier push across.

Unless you do that and they haven't, that is a massive rotation and it typically is going to look. It's not going to look pretty. I guarantee you they work on side to side movement. I know their goalie coach. I guarantee you they work. This is like one of those memes where you're like giving me all this like scientific information about tortucial rotation and everything

and then I'm like goalie moves slow. I'm going to like literally have to like bring you on the ice and show you how hard that movement is. I'm sure I will not be good at it. The example, and the reason I use the example, they coined the phrase in Calgary. It was actually Dustin Wolf that started, he was getting burned short side high by tucking inside his post off these rush chances. Because as soon as it got in tight, he was anticipating the potential for a wrap and he was going into a reverse. So he was tucking inside his post to seal short side high.

Well, Dustin Wolf isn't huge. And guys were looking for that tuck and then they were tucking it under the bar by his ear. And so he had to get more angle, had to get more depth. and the only way to get more depth without leaving, and Wolfie's as quick as they come, the only way to get more depth and still be able to get back to the other post if you got fake to the ice

was to hedge that rotation. And they came up with this technique, and they actually called it the panda. And the reason they called it the panda is because his butt basically goes right against the post. So it's one of the goalie coaches. I think it might have been Jordan Sigelette, said it looks like a panda rubbing its ass against bamboo.

So my point would be, it's a difficult enough play that just for that one specific chance the goal union has come up with a new way of managing it just to make sure we give ourselves a chance on what is an otherwise difficult play but because they haven't there or they're not using that move because it's a hell of a rotation and it's tough to get across

stop sending me wrap around pump fake wraparound goals Dimitri I'm going to do it next time it happens which probably will be in the first period of the next game of devil's play Kevin I will let you plug some stuff on the way out. Is there anything you want people to check out? Oh man, are we done already? I didn't even get to talk about load management and the Colorado Avalanche sitting Alexander Georgiev for a game completely rather than dressing him as a backup to get him more rest. The Habs have started sending, by the way, the avalanche, big fans of the PDO cast.

I know a lot of people in the organization listen to the show. So I'm not taking any credit for it because they're smart in their own right. But that was a heck of a move on their part. That's one of my sort of like, when are we going to get? get to this for years. And I had Rick Tockett tell me the other day when we started discussing it, that's a hell of an idea. We should be doing that. The Montreal Canadians have been sending the third guy and, you know, they're one of the few teams that's both blessed. It's kind of blessing and a curse, having three guys, but I'm also trying to figure out how to play them. They've been sending the third guy to the next city to prepare for their game. So, yeah, I did not know this. I now have new

ammunition for my column tomorrow because one of the things that Rick Tock had said to me was, don't they send pitchers to the next city in baseball? Absolutely. Yeah, they do, Rick. Or say if you've got back-to-back games, Casey Dismiss, said we had a back-to-back where it was here, Vancouver, and then the next night was there in Calgary. He's like, I'm playing the one in Calgary. That was brutal travel. That's my job. I'm not complaining.

But is there any need to put Demko through the same travel and still go through all his warm-up routine just to set on the bench that night? Like, there are ways to, the goalies don't want it. They all want to play every game and they want to be part of the team and they don't want to be seen as like needing load management. But yeah, hey, this is we've got our whole next session already set up, Dimitri. Kevin, they're kicking us out of here. everyone go follow kevin is in goal in goal magazine uh thank you for coming on i before we started i was

like i was just doom scrolling twitter i felt horrible i was like i don't even know if i can do a show today because i told you i needed coffee because i was exhausted and just feeling wiped from everything and we just geeked out and yeah so hopefully we helped to other people you help to keep my mind off of stuff for 50 minutes i enjoyed it entertainment value was great hopefully we did the same for the listeners. Thank you, Kevin. We're going to have you on again soon. Thank you to everyone for listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.