The Hockey PDOcast - Going Through This Summer's Free Agent Class

Episode Date: June 19, 2026

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Dom Luszczyszyn to go through this year's unrestricted free agent class, including Darren Raddysh's sign-and-trade to the Leafs. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey-Pedio-Cast. My name's Dimitri Fulipovich, and joining me. He's my good buddy, Don Bushish and Dom. What's going on in? Not much on my end. Nothing happened here in old Toronto.

How are you doing today? I'm doing well. You know, we were going to start this recording earlier than we did, and then we had to delay it, and you had to push it back specifically because you were just roaming the streets of Toronto looking for Darren Radish. And so I'm not sure if he found him or not yet, if he's arrived on the scene.

But it's good timing because you and I had planned to do this regardless. And we're going to focus our discussion on this summer's UFA class and talking about some of the free agents and the pros and cons of the top candidates available. And we were obviously going to start with Radish as well because of, you know, the speculation about how much he'd get paid, where he'd go, his hand. the position, all that good stuff, and then we get clarity on him going to your Toronto Maple Leafs in the sign and trade with the Lightning. And so it's a great opportunity in launching pad for us for his discussion. I think the fit makes a ton of sense. Obviously, it was

highly rumored well before this that the Leafs were positioning themselves to aggressively pursue radish. And I know there's some sticker shock and I think that's going to be a common theme for pretty much every deal sign moving forward for at least another couple years until we all sort of collectively recalibrate. And I certainly understand the, not skepticism, but reservation maybe, about what he is as a player

because of how short the runway has been for this level from him, really just limited to just last season, although we'll get into the details of that a little bit more. But at the same time, I don't think this price necessarily warrants him repeating what he was in that career breakout season with the lightning. I feel like if there's a happy medium here between what he'd been previously for two seasons really

and what he is here, maybe slanted a bit more towards last season, I feel like he could still be a reasonable deal, maybe slightly overpriced, but that comes to the territory of essentially signing a 34-year-old UFO, especially at a premium position. Yeah, I think there's some regression. priced in here. I don't think we're at a point where you are getting a 70 point defenseman who drives play on the top pair and is a right shot for $8.5 million.

From my perspective, that is number two money. And that is somewhere in the ballpark between what he was last year, which was someone who got Norris votes and what he was the year before, which is probably a number four who was carried a bit by Victor Hedman. and there is a lot of debate about whether he was carried by Kutrov this year offensively, Moser defensively, a lot of reasons to have reservations, have outright skepticism about what he is. But even if you expect he'll come down to the 50-point range and not be as dominant at 5-15 as he was last year in tough minutes, this is still a reasonable enough bet baking in those assumptions that he is not what he was last year.

When I wrote my article about him being a high-risk high-ward player, if he can repeat what he was last year, he's a $12 million defenseman. If he goes back to what he was the year before, he's a $5 million defenseman. So that's the risk-reward ratio, and it's as big as I think we maybe have ever seen for UFF. just because of how New York and sudden his rise was. But the Leafs are in a position where this is a bet they kind of had to make. I mean, much like everyone, I am deeply fascinated by the legend of Baldiore. And I know you are as well.

We had a long discussion about him earlier this season when the glow up really started happening. And just the trajectory itself, right, and how certainly well-timed the offensive explosion was in his age 30 season. But this is a guy who logged 353. A HL games didn't become a regular until age 27 and has now gone on this three-year stretch in terms of 82 game point production pace of 33 in his first year, 42, second year, then 79 last year. And it really kind of coincides with all of those injuries, the lightning incurred, on the back end around mid-November last season,

where they were forced into using Radish and Moser as their, top pair essentially. And from that point on, November 12, here's some stats for you. 23.53, time on ice per game for him, which was 20th, I believe, amongst defensemen in the league, 21 goals, which was just one behind Jacob Chikrin, and 67 points, which was behind Evan Bouchard and Zach Horsensky. Now, what I think some people don't realize is that he had kind of quietly had 23 and 27 5-15 points in those first two NHL seasons. And that makes the 32, 5-15 points he had last year in this breakout, not necessarily even that much of an anomaly, especially when you count for the increase in minutes that he played. The big difference really boils down to his role on the

power play where he just went absolutely nuts as a shooter. And, you know, headman's out, point was in and out of the lineup and really struggling even when he did play. They never addressed the right shot one-time option across the flank from Kuturov. And so they kind of reconfigure their P-P-1 to just flow through Kuturov just putting it on a self-time. platter essentially for Radish to bomb away and they had great success doing so and I think the splits for them are interesting to think about moving forward as well where when Kucharov was out there early in the year with headman and then whenever Radish wasn't out there with him on the power play they produced 5.8 goals per hour in the minutes with those two guys together they were up at 9.7 which

I think you'd expect from the lightning power play and so we'll talk more about what Tampa's going to do to kind of compensate for this loss as well but I do feel like that's an important note in addressing this crazy production that he had last season. Yeah, I think there are all people, they're just paying someone to take slap shops on PowerPlay, and that is definitely the surface level take for Radish, and he was unreal. But he has a lot more to offer at five-on-five, it seems,

based on not just what he did last year, but what he did before in some easier minutes, and he proved, I think, his medal in tougher minutes. Obviously, having Moser beside him is a big deal. But the big concern with Radish is if he went to a team that didn't have someone like Kutrov, and obviously there are not a lot of teams with players as talented as Kutrov, but beliefs are the rare situation where not the same level, but it works.

They have Neelander as the playmaker. they have McKenna maybe if they draft McKenna coming up they obviously have Matthews as well and so he has a supporting cast up front that he can gel with and I think the fit here is what makes it less of a risk compared to if he signed in say Detroit where Raymond's an underrated playmaker but the top end talent isn't there yeah I think the scoring for him in individually is interesting as well, right? Like the shooting percentage itself at 10.4 wasn't even as high at the end of the day as I kind of felt it was watching it in real time. Yet obviously for any defensemen, it's certainly elevated.

And I think we see year over year there's a lot of variance in terms of individual shooting percentage for defensemen specifically. It feels like Kail McCarr is really the anomaly. Maybe Jacob Chickren as well now more recently the past couple years that are going to consistently score 20 plus goals and shoot around the double digits. in terms of efficiency and neither of those guys necessarily bombs away from the point. I mean, they don't have the velocity that Radish does and no one in today's game really does, but they're more aggressive, I think, in terms of like coming down the circles and really getting involved from scoring areas, whereas Radish, a lot of his scoring was from higher in the zone. And I guess when you've on cork 97, 90 plus mile per hour shots the way he did, which was like 40 plus more than

Evan Bouchard, who was second, maybe that's a, workaround, but it is just such an anomaly in today's game with all the discussions we've had about like these Zadano Chara, Shea Weber types from the past that would just one-time shots from distance at these velocities have kind of been erased from the game. And then now all of a sudden you get radish, which really has been a bit of a throwback. Yeah. And I don't know, it's, it is rare, but he could be that rare player given how much power he has on a shot, how he's able to get it away. While you were talking, I did want to look this up.

And I think one of the things that is good about Rattish is that you mentioned the shooting percentage wasn't as high as you thought it would be. And he did rank seventh in expected goals among defensemen last year, right between Rorensky and Hughes at 14.4. So if he just shoots as you would expect an average defenseman to shoot, like that's still a great goal scoring season from defensemen to get 15 goals. So assuming he's got a little more finishing oomph than the average guy just because of how much power he has,

if he can keep creating chances in that way, that's something the Leap's Blue Line, I think, has been desperately missing for a lot of the Matthews era. And there were years where Riley was fantastic offensively and Riley defensively, but he never had that element that I think can open up some space that leaps have been missing. Certainly a different level of threat.

I mean, listen, I'm willing to buy the idea that Kucharov is a one-of-one playmaker in terms of like the spin and angle of his passes that he sets up shooters with that allow a guy like Rattish to get maximum velocity as frequently as he did. And maybe that won't be as available to him. You do go through the tape of how those shots came together, especially on the power play. It's a lot of relatively simple passes that they're orchestrating in terms of him standing up there and then setting up to one-timer from that side of the ice.

And so it is probably a bit more replicable than just kind of a lot of those brain point seasons where it's like, yeah, it probably does take a magical superstar passer to thread it through a couple sticks into the inner slot for him to get those looks off that he was converting. I think honestly, for me, the bigger question at 515 is the impact of J.J. Moser, because he's a player who I think very highly of. And I think there was a clear complementary skill set going on, like a symbiotic relationship between the two that allowed Moser to kind of settle in and do a lot of the dirty work defensively

and staying back and allowing Radish to be a bit more aggressive. Now, what is working in Radish's favor? And I imagine a lot of appeal to the Leafs is you mentioned some of the substance in his game beyond the goals and the points. And Corey Schneider had him like 98th percentile, I think, in the league in possession exits and passing the puck out of the zing. zone as well and that has been an unavoidable issue for the Leafs the past couple

years in this never ending pursuit to get more physical and reliable, defensively and tougher. Just the puck skills on that blue line had eroded so dramatically. And so going out and adding a guy like Milandrin will still see what his future is like,

but him, Darren Radish, if there's following moves to come as well, I do think it probably represents like an encouraging paradigm shift or a directional shift for them in terms of addressing a massive need for them last season, which was getting the puck to their forwards efficiently and not forcing Matthews to do all of the heavy lifting from a zone out in particular.

And so Radish is clearly capable of that. Now the defensive stuff will kind of remains to be seen without Moser there to compliment him. Yeah, I am optimistic about Jake McCabe replicating some of that. I think he is a bit of an underrated guy in terms of what he brings to the table both ways. The stuff he's had to do in extremely tough minutes on a bad Burubi team is, I think, underrated. And I think he will be able to fit well with Radish in a similar regard to what you're saying. I think the big thing is, and I think we've talked about this before, is a lot of the best teams, they are able to put an elite number one,

guy with their top player because they can dominate both ends of the ice so they can handle the top opponents one way and they can facilitate offense the other way that is what makes bouchard special with macdavid macar special with mcquistre special with mcquise special with caprice up or boldly or whatever and matthews never has had that he had riley for a bit but you always have to play it safer in the playoff because of how risky Riley's game is. And it just became this thing where I think they played a bit slower than they had to in the playoffs.

And they didn't go full speed and lean into that offensive advantage. And then with McCabe and Tanev, you have a fantastic five-man shutdown unit, but you can't really create because you're being put in defensive posture. And my hope is that if Radish can recreate a lot of what he does, did last year that Matthews will finally have someone to play with on the first pair that can go

in both directions like that. Undoubtedly. You know, last note on the contract, because obviously to keep the number down somewhat and just facilitate getting this done now ahead of July 1st, the Leafs send that fifth rounder to the lightning to make the sign and trade. And this is the last time we're really going to see deals like this because by September 15th, you're not going to going to be able to go eight years anymore. There's certainly some risk in terms of, you know, paying him at this number, even if it's going to represent a smaller percentage of the cap into his bid to late 30s and it'll expire when he's 38. I do think from the Leaves perspective, though, it's a bit of a unique window over the next two years, essentially, while Matthews is still

under contract at 13.25, while McKenna's on his ELC and then, you know, staring down the reality that you don't have your first round pick in the next two drafts in terms of prioritizing that a little bit and hoping that the immediate impact the Radish is able to provide is going to make the back half of it, you know, a lesser concern, at least for the time being. Yeah, they're a tough spot without their top picks. I know there are still people who think they should have just rebuilt

and I think that is asinine. I don't think you'd punt on seasons where you can't even receive the reward for it. And with Matthews, with two years left, with McKenna's ELC, they had to go big or go home, basically. And there is a chance that this doesn't work out, but it's a risk they kind of just had to take in that unique window they're in. I think by my count, this makes Radish, like somewhere around the 20th highest paid defensemen heading into next season.

You know, there's a lot of comps that have recently signed kind of in that 7 to 8. and a half million dollar AAV range. The market for right-hand defensemen this summer, now removing radish from the board, is increasingly bleak. And we're going to talk more about Rasmus Anderson here in a second as well. Certainly, I think a natural segue, though,

is to talk about the lightning and how they sort of compensate for this and how they fill that, right? Because I mentioned that the Leafs are in a bit of a unique spot. You could argue that the lightning are in the highest leverage spot they've been in in a while as well, coming off a disappointing postseason where they lose that game 7 at home to the Habs.

They were pretty conservative at the trade deadline, despite us feeling like they were one of, if not the best team in the Eastern Conference, really just going and what, spending a second on Corey Perry and kind of adding on the margins and never really upgrading that Bjork Strand spot or, or kind of swinging for the fences. They kept O'Reilly and geeky and didn't really use it.

any of their top prospects to help their present day roster. And they enter this offseason now with pretty much their entire team signed. I think they legitimately have 12 forward, six defensemen and two goalies under contract and still 16 plus million or so in cap space. And I'm fascinated to see what they do with that. I do wonder whether this makes John Carlson returning to the Eastern Conference and filling that spot on the top unit power play and top air on the, top air on the right side, a pretty interesting fit.

And we'll still see. I mean, you know, at this stage of his career, him being 37 or whatever, he's already suggested that he wants to come back to the east. And he's going to pick his spot. We've seen Pierre LeBron, your co-worker, the athletic, throw out that it's going to be around 10 million for two years, regardless of where he signs. But the lightning can certainly fit that in.

And I imagine they're going to explore that pretty heavy. here leading up to July 1st. What do you think about that fit? It was what immediately popped to mind when you talked about the lightning and I went to see how much caps space they had and then you said all of it. It makes perfect sense.

I think Carlson is probably the best defenseman on the market. That was true before Radish signed and is still true now. While Radish has, I think, the upside, the downside risk

is something that Carlson I don't think has as much. Obviously, his age means he could fall off a cliff at any time. But he's just been so consistent for the last decade that you kind of just know what you're getting. And it would be really interesting to see him just plug in Sean Carlson to the spot. Radish was in and see what happens because I think there is not a more obvious spot for him if he wants to go east and compete for a cup. Yeah, one of my concerns would just be the age from the perspective.

of McDonough is also 37, Headman's 36, and now you'd add Carlson, who's 37. And, you know, Eric Chernak, I was looking this up as well, is remarkably only 29 years old, even though it feels like he's been around forever. And I think his body's like 45 years old in terms of the wear and tear he's incurred along the way.

So that would be a bit of a concern for me, but I think it's mitigated by obviously the term, which would likely be two years only. But also the way Carlson has kind of reinvented the second stage of his, career, right? Like, I remember when he came in, he was such a, like a toolsy physical freak. And then as he got into his 30s and he got older, his game became a bit more stationary, yet still just as as dominant, arguably this past season was one of his more impressive ones in terms of play driving

5-on-5. And he finished with 60 points, I believe, and was really good even upon the trade going to the ducks, despite what a shock that must have been for him moving from Washington to the deadline. And so I like that quite a bit and a very different player than Radish too, right? Like I know he scored his fair share of goals as a defenseman over his career, but it feels like he's much more of a distributor at this point. And I really love like some of the stuff he does as a passer in zone. And so it remains to be seen what that would look like under the lightning, assuming the two get together.

But I think probably their most logical way to make up for losing Radish here and probably coming out at least even for it. Yeah, I think so. I think that is, it might be the one most, beyond Radist to Toronto. This might be one of the most obvious fits in the market. I think under the radar, perhaps, one of the things they desperately need is a backup goalie who can make a save. This is what, like year five of the Jonas Johansson experience.

And with how Vasselpsi is looking to playoffs in four straight years, they need someone to take some starts from him. And because Johansson is almost guaranteed loss, a lot of games, it's limited their chances of winning the division last year. I think if they had a competent goalie, they get there. So that would be number two on the list for Tampa Bay. I still think the team here is really good, but obviously approaching the end.

Okay, before we grow up a break, let's just close the loop on right-handed defensemen and talk Rasmus Anderson a little bit. Listen, I've made my thoughts on the situation well-documented throughout this postseason. It felt like after every cup final game, I kept coming back to this, but it was unavoidable for Vegas, and I think unavoidable for anyone entertaining the idea of signing him, especially long-term this summer. He's going to be 30 in the first month of the deal, and I think has already physically declined. quite a bit as a skater, especially defensively. I do think he provides some interesting utility.

Offensively, he scored 17 goals this year, but even amongst those struggles, like we're still making plays when he's moving north-south in the offensive zone. The issue is everything else that comes with it. And honestly, at this point, I would view, like, the most logical fit for him being like a sheltered, secondary or even third-peer defender

who gets the eat-up zone starts offensively and cook that way and gets sheltered quite heavily defensively. but because of his reputation and what I imagine his salary is going to be at his next stop, that almost certainly won't happen. And so I would view that as quite a bit of a red flag for whoever signs him. Yeah, I think the entire problem with Anderson is that his reputation outstrips what he can actually do out there. If people were talking about him like in a second pair of defenseman getting $7 million, I don't think anyone has a problem with that price at all.

nine, nine and a half. It's just an amount that is so difficult to live up to at his current level that it might make him try to do even more, which is just a cycle that is hard to overcome. I read a book a couple years ago, and I really wanted to tweet out recommendation, and I didn't end up doing it. It is called the eye test. I forgot the author. I'm very sorry to the author for forgetting his name because it was so long ago reading it. But the entire premise of the book is how analytics has infiltrated

all these different fields. So there's a chapter for filmmaking, there's a chapter for economics, the chapter of a stock market, there's a chapter for sports. And it is about how we shouldn't ignore, like the intuition that these people have had watching sports for years and I think everyone

listens to podcasts can agree with that. There's ways to blend it, ways to marry it. But one of the things that was really carried home about the human element was there was this fantastic baseball player who signed this big money deal and we've seen the story a million times where a player finally gets that big money

and immediately feels the pressure of living up to a lot. it or feels the comfort of getting what they've worked for that they become a completely different player after the checks clear. And it is such a difficult thing to price in and think about from the outside where you don't know what kind of mindset these players have once they get paid, where they still have that hunger to be the player they've always been, to be a better player than they've been before. and if a player is already not at that level

and has to now play above what they might be worth, it just becomes even more difficult and frustrating. And I think we've seen that a bit with players in a hard cap world, Darnel Nurse comes to mind where you have a pretty good defenseman, a pretty good second pair defenseman, sometimes number three, sometimes they're four. he's played a number two level in the past as well, but because he's never been what he's paid to be, which is a nine and a half million dollar defenseman, the context just makes it difficult to judge him. And I fear that is what's going to happen with Anderson where he might end up

being a good second pair defenseman, but because he's not nine and a half million good, it's just a hard thing to live up to. Well, that's a really important point because I think the number itself, regardless of how it gets, is less of an issue, just in theory. because everyone has cap space and so it's really not going to be that prohibitive moving forward but when you pay a player

to that capacity it not only for the player comes with a certain level of expectation but I think for the team they feel very committed to showing that it was the right move and then giving ice time and opportunities accordingly and I can't really see that benefiting

his next team especially if it's a contender in terms of sort of jamming them into those spots that he's clearly not capable of of winning anymore. I mean, his performance for Vegas, was he like 42% in terms of shots and chances

and expected goals. It was bad and the results could have been so much worse if Hannafin didn't bail him out defensively on a number of occasions. And so that would be pretty alarming for me. All right, let's take a break here real quick

and then when we come back, we're going to jump right back into it and get into, especially the forwards in this UFA class. I don't want to talk about a few of the notable ones with you. You're listening to the, Hockey P.Ocast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.

All right, we're back here in the Hockey Piocast, joined by Don Lushish and Dom. Let's keep it going. I want to get into the forwards with you. And this is a neat segue because a lot of what I just said about Rasmus Anderson before the break kind of applies to Alex Thuck, in my opinion. Similarly, my thoughts were well documented this postseason on how I feel about the player. I think the idea of going seven years north of 10.

million per is unfathomable to me. He turned 30 in May and you know the stats have kind of been at least the production and the counting stats were quite in line with what they were previously. And so it looks like the same player yet there's underlying statistical trends that suggest otherwise. And the tape on him, especially in that HAB series, was terrifying in my opinion for anyone considering it. And you could see the physical decline. He's not the skater he was anymore. I think he dipped down to like the 50 second percentile in terms of skating speed this season, a stat that he used to dominate, especially for a player of his size. And on the tape, you could see that he's trying to compensate for it by just cheating for offense more, like flying the zone, staying out there longer

per shifts so that he can have an opportunity in some daylight to attack while the other team is not set. And for a player who used to be such a physical freak, thinking back to his vaguest days and then early in Buffalo where he would go coast to coast and just bulldoze through the opposing defense, that's not on the tape anymore for him. Like it's either him getting one of those opportunities where he's cheated for it or just skating into the zone and aimlessly throwing the puck from the corner because he can't get to the inside anymore.

And I don't see that getting better as he gets into his 30s. And so I think that's a massive problem. Yeah, I wrote a bit about Tuck a couple weeks ago, and I remember looking at his skating stacks for the last few years. I remember that was one of his calling cards, and last year definitely a dip. I think it might have been much worse in the playoffs. I don't remember if he was injured or not. I think there are specific teams where it could work. and I think his skill set has scalability where,

like you think of the Jonathan Huberto contract, and he's not effective unless he's in the top six, whereas Tuck, I think he'll be a good player throughout the eight years. It's just whether how good he is and whether it's the level of $10 plus million, that's the major question. I think year six, year seven, year eight, you'll have Alex

Tuck on the third line and he'll be great at that I think just based on the kind of player he is. You're paying him right now to be a top line player and I think there's only specific teams where they can get away with it. I think the Devils are one of those teams where I can see Tuck

doing really well next to Hughes, doing really well next to Hesher and being a great fit and them getting the most of that value. And because they have a bunch of other players on high-value, high-surplus value deals, they can probably get away with overpaying for tuck and fixing a hole in their top six.

But there are a lot of other teams where they'll have to, they'll need tuck to be like maybe not the guy, but someone really close to that level of employment. for their team and I think that's part of what he was in Buffalo and that's part of the reason I think things start to slide in the playoffs is he had to do too much and that's again I was a concern with Anderson's going to be a concern with tuck he needs to go to a place where he does not have to do too much I think if he put him with Connor McDavid perfect um there are there I think the list of players that he can play with is a bit shorter than it should be for someone.

who is commanding the kind of salary where those considerations shouldn't really have to be made. Yeah, the devils would be interesting. I had AJ Hayfley on and we talked about the abs yesterday and I think I'd prefer going the trade route and trying to acquire someone like a Valenatushkin or something and paying whatever that costs and saving some of the money and just getting a more useful player at this point for a fraction of the price. But yeah, I think that's fair. like I don't want to overweight the most recent viewing of him

because you know it's the playoffs and players have bad series it happens it might not necessarily be something that carries over he very well could have been heard or playing less than 100% and that explains some of it but man that series against the haps was downright embarrassing in my opinion and I do wonder as well for a player who is big and fast in terms of his biggest selling points I feel like sometimes these guys as they get into the 30s the decline comes more swiftly and harshly than we anticipate when a long-term contract signed, where you're like, well, it's going to look bad undoubtedly in the final couple years,

but it's going to help a lot immediately. And then all of a sudden that player just isn't the player that used to be, and I feel like you dealed with that reckoning much sooner than you anticipated, and we've seen a bunch of examples of that in the past, and that would be one of my concerns here. I'm as a Sabres, um, enthusiast. I'm encouraged by the fact that it seems like they've kind of walked away from this at this point. Um, because I think that would have been a mistake undoubtedly given all the forwards they already have,

but also the relative cap crunch they could be facing, especially if they get a long term deal done with Zach Benson. And I just feel like there's probably better ways to give out that remaining cap space and the minutes that come with it. Yeah, when I wrote about Tuck, I looked at the comps because I think Term is going to be scary here. Rick Nash, Jamie Ben, Andersley, James Neal were the four that came to mind. And I don't recall perfectly if they all had the foot speed that Tuck did, but I think they fit the mold of a top six power forward. and a lot of them after year four were a lot worse than they were in their prime. And I think he's of an archetype where, yeah, could come swiftly, and you better hope and pray that it's not James Neal swiftly,

because that is the massive risk here. I don't think it will be. I like his game enough to think that he can maybe age the way Jayne Ben has. but yeah Buffalo with the young guys coming up there is absolutely no need to

resign Tuck for a price that doesn't make sense for them long term I think they're building something special I have plugged in my stuff for next year and I've done Buffalo without Tuck and they are looking good they're looking like a playoff team so

well especially with what we saw in a limited sample albeit but an increased you're going nonetheless from a guy like Consta Heleneu's you know you're coming back hopefully like there's enough guys there to give the minutes to that are ascending and I just want to see those opportunities as opposed to paying someone 11 million and feeling obligated to just staple them to Tage Thompson moving forward despite like diminishing results so um let's close out we got like 15 more minutes I want to get into some of the other names in this class because I know you wrote about 10 players to target and 10 players to avoid I'm I'm amazed that you were able to

able to limit it to 10 players to avoid. I would have just written everyone and bolded it and sent that into my editors, but maybe that's why you're a better writer than I am. Let's get into some of the players to target, because I thought you had some interesting names. You obviously had John Carlson in there, and we already talked about him and covered that. I feel like Marchmont and Arbidson in particular put it out to me. And so maybe we can talk about the two of them and someone else.

if there's anyone else in that list that really intrigued you. Yeah, Marchmont, I remember the year he went wild in Florida and broke every possible model because his points per 60 was crazy and the stuff he was doing was so efficient

and I had switched my model a bit to worry less about efficiency and worry more about the tangible results I do things on a per game level instead of per 60. I remember at the time, part of the switch was players like Marchment looked amazing. Players like Suzuki didn't. And it's just because a lot of times they had a harder job higher up the lineup.

And so that's one of the considerations I made. But even doing that, Marchment, I think, has just been a really good top six forward for the last, what, five or six years now. And last year, the stuff he was doing when he got. Columbus was incredible. And I think if the choice is tuck at 11 or Marchman at 6, I think it's an obvious one, given that the difference between the two isn't so massive. And I don't think Marchment relies on speed at all.

And I think can maybe age a bit better. And if you're talking about scalability, like, I think you could be a perfect third line forward as well. And if that's coming in at $5 million, $6 million, like, I like that. a lot. Arvinson is so funny because the one place where we thought he could definitely score 70 points is where he tanked the most. And other than that, he's been

a consistent 60 point-paced guy. He just can't really stay in the lineup. So, I don't know, good player. Nice bounce back last year for Boston. I like both of those. What do you think of Vincent DeHarnay? Because his numbers on my end leaped off the page. And I'm shocked that he is not getting more buzz as a 6'7 fridge that can play defense. As listeners might not be surprised by, not my cup of tea as a player type,

I think could have some utility. I'm sure a Rick Tockeet, for example, would really appreciate his work. Yeah, I think it's fine. Ultimately, assuming the price wasn't crazy, we'll see what this market looks like for even players of that caliber, because especially for the defensemen, it's so dire where like I'm fixated and a guy like Ryan Shea, and I'm like, oh, man, he's pretty interesting. And I feel like most years I would not necessarily feel that way, but it's just the reality of the situation.

So yeah, I think it could ultimately be fine. I just with the way the game's headed, and even I think we saw this postseason, a lot of the pushback was, well, come the postseason, you need players like that. And I just don't think that's the case anymore. Like I think having defensemen who can move the puck, especially you watch that cup final, and it's two forechecking buzz saws that are going to punish you every time you turn it over in your own zone. Like just having a player like that out there that cannot handle a puck and pass it in a straight line, this becomes unavoidable. So I think if you're looking to fill minutes for cheap and like have a guy who kills penalties and can play on your third pair and be physical, like it's fine ultimately. But for a really good team, I just don't really see the scalability of it.

like this guy's going to help us win a Stanley Cup this season? I sort of see like a budget Mikola, maybe. Mikola's such a physical freak though. And like every seventh game becomes the best offensive defenseman in the world.

I don't think Vinny Dara has everyone on that. Yeah. I mean, aside from that, I'm just saying that I think the defensive utility he has makes up a bit for the fact that he might be one of the lesser offensive defensive league. I think when we're talking about a UFA market that has Logan Stanley, and we're, like, maybe he can move a puck a bit better. Sure, maybe he scores a few more goals,

but absolute train wreck without the puck. And I do think there's still room on a modern blue line for one guy who defends really well. And if it comes at a price that is seemingly as cheap as it is for De Haarnay, I don't mind it. He's not an arch type I particularly like either. But if you have, if you have five other guys who are more defensive focus, obviously not the guy, but for a team that maybe needs a bit more defensive might and has struggles on the penalty kill, I don't think you are getting a better deal than him. His projections like $2 million or something. And I think that's pretty great. I did have a couple more. it's on Marchman because I feel like you breeze past that to get into a big Vinny Daronay monologue.

So he just turned 31, but I will note, like he's played only 370 NHL games because he came into the league quite late with the Panthers really in the 2021 season. And so the workload hasn't been as high. And to your point, like he's been pretty much over to five on five points per 60 like every year and it's just consistently really good there scored at a 32 goal pace upon arrival in Columbus my concern would be he cannot stop taking penalties and it's been a big problem in his career whenever he's played in the playoffs at that and so that would be a concern for a contender I still am very fascinated to see what Columbus does because I did a deep dive on them earlier this week but like they signed that six year Charlie Coil extension and I think presumably not only to

entice them to come back, but also to keep the AV at six, which is very reasonable for the next couple of years. But they had no need to do so, considering they still have $35 million in cap space. And they have a bunch of stuff to figure out with Van Tilly and, you know, other like down the line, Greaves, Mataccha, Mershanko, Branko, Ken Johnson. Like, a lot of these guys are going to be due for pay raises. But in the meantime, I'm fascinated to see whether they're actually going to spend a good chunk of it and whether they're accounting for either Marchman's next deal or someone else or consolidating those pieces into a trade. So I feel like Columbus could be fascinating. And then on Arbiton, it's just a shame that he can't stay healthy. Right. And at 33, I don't imagine that's

going to get better. And his size is always going to work against him. But I don't think people realize how good he was last year. McKinn and Kutrov were the only guys in the league who scored more five on five points per 60 than him. And Pasternak was the only Bruin that scored more five on five points total than him and they were up 54, 29 in his minutes. Like he was absurd. And even in that series against the Sabres, I thought he was their best player until he got hurt. And things went off the rails for them a little bit.

But I love Victor Arvison and I'm excited to see what happens with him. Do you have any notes on Anthony Manta or a couple of the other interesting names that have red flags or considerations that teams are going to have to account for if they're thinking about spending a bunch of money on them? I would say that Manta at the price he's projection for by AFP 6.4 million is perfectly reasonable. I think he is that caliber of player of a second line guy. I don't know what's going on with what happens in the playoffs with him. It is unfathomable.

Like to the point I remember with Vegas, they were just like, we're not even going to play you. and I think they paid a first, second, third for him. And they're like, holy hell, what is going on here when it matters? So for a team that needs to make the playoffs, I love the idea of grabbing Manta and being a floor raiser and getting that first round gate, as long as they're prepared for a complete no-show,

which is just shocking given his size. I even remember, I'm not a prospect guy. I don't remember, I don't pay attention much to things, but I feel like I remember when he was a prospect, that compete level and ability to use his size were like the big question marks. And so him not working well in the playoffs is not surprising, given those concerns from an extremely young age. Yeah, he was aggressively bad in that series against the Flyers,

yet so good and so efficient in the regular season. He was fifth in goals and eight in points per hour by 1-5, and it was just ridiculous as a lot of those Penguins forwards were. Yeah, that'd be interesting. It's almost like a baseball pitcher situation where you have him as the starter for the regular season, but then you need some bullpen help and a closer to come in and fill the minutes in the playoffs for him.

I feel like Matt Zuccarello would be really interesting. I have no idea what to make of whether he's going to be back with Minnesota or not. I was reading Michael Rousseau's piece about it. And I guess it seems like they're kind of in limbo for now, just waiting for the trade market to material. and to see if something happens with Dylan Larkin or whatever they're going to do there before kind of circling back and committing

or if he's just going to explore the market and see what's out there. I still think he has quite a bit of juice left. Similar to Arvison, what I said, like especially at this age, maybe not a guy you're going to get for 82 regular season games, but when he's out there, I think does such cool and effective stuff as a playmaker and passer

that he would be an interesting target for me. But that does also reflect the state of this market, as I said, that, like, guys like that are the ones that I'm probably

most intrigued by despite obvious knocks against them. Yeah, I love an old guy because they always come with, I think a decrease

in price just because of the risk of aging out. And Zucarillo, with how good he has been next to Kutrov, he might be the second best forward

available. And I'm surprised that it's getting to a point where they haven't re-signed him. But, yeah,

there's some concern about whether he can live up to that level without Kutrov. Without Capriza, I mean. Yeah, without Capri's off. Sorry, I had Tampa Bay on my mind. I wonder if that is a top six fit for them, especially if he wants to win a cup. Tampa is just always a good fit for a lot of people. And yeah, I think Stel's Juice, for sure.

Any other names you wanted to throw in here? I feel like we kind of covered a lot of the main ones. I know on the lines of some of these veterans who come at decreased prices and you comparing it to the projections, I know you kind of noted like Claudeau and Jamie Ben, I'm dubious on the Ben one. I feel like what we see in. Well, that's fine. But I feel like honestly,

it would be one of those ones that would be, I would like a lot more, I think, for any other team other than the Dallas Stars. Yeah. feel like it's just like one of those like symbolic things that they just need to move on and and change a direction and that'll go a long way with all the baggage that comes with it because especially in the playoffs he's just been such a zero the past couple years yeah i i think the difference between ben at what is he still was he still in the nine point nine million deal no he signed uh he signed like a bonus laden one one of those 35 plus ones uh this past summer yeah okay um

Yeah, bonus-laden deal. I like a lot for Ben. I think he can still be like a third-line guy. So, I mean, why not if it's $1 million base? I think we should talk about players to avoid, personally, because they can't be serious about Jacob Truah making sick and a half million dollars, right? Yeah.

Well, especially with term. Yeah. I have some time. for the intangible element and the fact that he's a feared guy on the ice. I did think he was also more let's say

controlled this past year as well, maybe a bit less reckless which was good to see but yeah, I'm with you at this point. Especially if it's a team like the Ducks and obviously I think they would have liked to bring it John Carlson back

considering how good he'd been and the what? top 20 pick they paid for him at the deadline. And he just wants to go back to the east, as we said. But for a team that really has no right shot defenders on their blue line, for them to not be prioritizing it at this point, it seems like, is probably everything you need to know. Yeah, I wonder if that is where a hideous Anderson contract materializes.

I hate it. Oh, boy. Yeah. I mean, I'm not going to like that one regardless. list of where it is. But I feel like, I mean, listen, they're not going to address it in the UFA class, regardless, I don't think.

But a team that clearly has a lot of juice offensively, but I think has a lot of work to do in terms of tightening things up defensively, I don't think that would go any way towards helping with that. So I would be pretty wary of that. But, yeah, I mean, listen, a lot of these teams are going to be interesting because right shot defenders are so hard to find.

And as we said, everyone has so much room that I think it's going to be a lot easier for these teams to justify spending a bunch of that money and being like, well, it doesn't matter right now, we'll figure it out later. And then immediately from the start of next season, they're going to be like, we're all looking for the guy who did this. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's going to be my next piece is looking into just how much money is expected

to be available and how that may influence things because it is getting to a mind-boggling Timothy Mosgov rate I think we might see. All right, buddy. Well, this was a lot of fun. I'm glad we got to work our way through the UFA class. I'll let you plug some stuff

for you're on the way out because you've been writing a lot about this and I'm sure with all the trades and the signings that are coming to come over the next couple weeks, you're going to be a very busy man. Yeah, I wrote about Radish and Tuck specifically

because I think they're most fascinating UFO cases. Shana took on Anderson as well. That's a great piece to read. 10 UFAs to sign, 10 UFAs to avoid, and then coming next week is a look at the market at large because, yeah, it's, there's a lot of money out there. And I wonder how that affects things

and how nutty things get because of it. All right, buddy. Well, good stuff. Enjoy all of that player movement. And it was fun to do this, continuing our offseason previews. I had Steve Warrior on. We did front office perspective. We had Kevin Woodley on. We talked about goalies. You and I did the UFA class doing a mock draft with Cam Robinson and Chris Peters. And then Shane is coming on next week.

And we're going to go through the most interesting team. So we've got you covered with every possible angle. Give us a five-star review wherever you listen to today's show if you enjoyed it. And that is all for today. We'll see you back here on Monday. Thank you for listening to the HockeyPediocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.