The Hockey PDOcast - Hurricanes vs. Panthers, and Expectations Versus Reality

Episode Date: May 23, 2023

John Matisz from The Score joins Dimitri to talk about the first three games of Hurricanes vs. Panthers, how much closer the series has actually been than most of the key numbers would indicate, and reasons why Florida is one win from the Stanley Cup Final.This podcast is produced by  Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

mean since 2015. It's the Hockey Pediocast with your host, Dmitri Filipoven. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitra Philpovich. Joining me is my buddy John Mattis. John was gone on. Not a whole lot. We had to delay this recording because my mouth was frozen this morning, went to the dentist and they did their thing. And I didn't know that it took like two or three hours to unfreeze as a rookie in the dentist chair as far as operations. But no, everything is cool coming off the long weekend here and I guess roughly midway through the conference finals. Yeah.

Well, John, it's the playoffs, especially the conference final. We all got to play through pain a little bit, right? A few bumps and bruises along the way. Yeah, no, it was a fun long weekend. It's good to get back in the swing of things here. We're going to talk at least out of the gate about Panthers hurricanes because it feels like, you know, that's the game we saw last night. We've already seen three games in that series now with the Panthers going up to three nothing with their victory on Monday. And so we're going to talk about that a little bit unpack it what we've seen and kind of talk about some of the main takeaways from that.

And then we'll bounce around and cover a few other topics later on in the show. But starting with that, you know, the Panthers pull out another close one goal win that makes them nine and one in one goal games this postseason. And they're six and oh in overtime as well during this magical playoff run that they've been on to this point. One went away from the Stanley Cup final. And, you know, while we're currently at three and oh and two and no in the two respective conference finals, right. I do feel like after the round two we had where it was kind of defined by all these blowouts and lack of competitive games, it feels like we're at least getting our wish so far, maybe not in terms of the series scores, but through five games, the remarkably hasn't been a single

two goal league yet, which is quite a stat to ponder. So pretty much every one of these games so far has been played with the game on the line, basically being a one-shot game. And so there's certainly been no lack of drama, I guess. Yeah. And I mean, even with the Panthers Hurricane specifically, the score has been tied or within one goal, as you alluded to, the entire series. So that's 13 periods because we got so much overtime, 262 minutes here. So it's almost a little unfortunate that it's 3-0, Florida, and 2-0 Vegas, because you'd think, okay, mix in a series that's a little closer here, given how the games have looked. Well, that's a good segue into what I want to talk about with you, because I think, you know,

the NHO playoffs I keep bringing up aren't really a meritocracy in the sense that it doesn't necessarily matter what you quote unquote deserve based on how you're playing right it's that's the nature that's both the blessing and occurs of a seven game series format where you only need to win four times and a couple bounces here or there on isolated events can play an outsized role in determining that right it doesn't really matter if you're carrying the flow of play maybe it makes you more likely the benefit from one of those balances, but for the most part, it doesn't ultimately matter that much. And I bring that up because I've seen a lot of the conversation about this series has sort of been framed around how the hurricanes are super unlucky to be down three nothing,

right? How Sergey Bobrovsky is standing on his head and stealing these games. And I guess I just don't really see it that way. In my opinion, all three games have been like essentially 50, 50 coin flips where it was pretty evenly played could have certainly gone either way i mean the first two games obviously went to overtime and you know in that sense for it is certainly fortunate to have won all three of those coin flips but if you take a step back and think about it probabilistically teams win three close coin flip games in a row all the time like it's not that much of a statistical aberration or that much of an you know crazy event i can't believe this is happening so i get why there would be frustration from the hurricanes perspective.

And if you're rooting for them, that, oh, man, it feels like we've been so close and we have nothing to show for it so far. But I guess the point I'm trying to make is I'm pushing back against the idea that it has been one-sided or unevenly played. And I actually think all three of these games have been very hotly contested by both sides.

Yeah, and let's face it, Carolina, I don't know whether the storm against Boston and Toronto in a sense that they have no finishers. You mean, Wait, you mean Florida, Florida played Toronto and Boston. Sorry, sorry, sorry.

I meant Florida, not Carolina. I meant Carolina weathered the storm in their first two rounds. So I get the opponents against the Islanders and the Devils, yeah. Yes, sorry. And my point with that is they lose Patchretti and Sveshnekov to end the regular season. Obviously, they didn't really have Patchretti all year. They come into the playoffs as a team that I was worried about. It's like, okay, who's going to score in this roster?

Okay, you've got Aho, you've got NACIS, you've got Tara Vinen, who ends up getting injured and is now returned. You've got Jarvis, but I don't know. Is that enough? And again, they got through the first two rounds fine. They actually, I believe, were leading playoffs in goals per game coming into this round. If I'm not mistaken, if not, they were at least second. And, you know, Ajo's gotten a ton of looks, this round, especially in game three.

but for me like they're putting a lot of shots in in bobrowski's chest they got better with with their screens and they're sort of making life difficult on him in game three but games one and two i think that was really lacking and no shots in the final three minutes or so in game three with the net empty i mean that's you're not exactly giving yourself a great chance to tie up tie up the game there. And I think it's one of those things where, you know, it's great to get attempts. It's great to get shots on goal. But what are these attempts and shots on goal look like? How difficult are they actually? And, you know, you've got to give tons of props to Brabowski. I mean, he's been, he's been brilliant. Like, there's no denying that. But I think at the same time,

Carolina hasn't done themselves a ton of favors as far as the quality of opportunities that they've had. When they do get the high quality opportunities, it's guys like Jesper Fast or someone further down the lineup who is pulling the trigger on those shots. And they're just not snipers. They're just really missing patch ready and Svashnikov. I know that's like a very easy thing to point out or a very obvious thing. But it's just it's true. It's the truth. Well, they're missing Svichnakov in this series particularly because you think that stylistically he would be such a difference maker in this, right?

A lot of what's ALDM has been breaking into. to the inside, winning those battles in front of the net, kind of using, like, having a size and skill combination. They have very few players who can put those two things together. And so he obviously checks a lot of those boxes. And I think he would make a difference in this series for a series that has been, the margin's been as razor thin as it has. The patcher ready excuse, I think we've, we've passed the expiration date on that one, right?

It's like a 34-year-old coming off of a Torne Achilles who had played five games for this team and the second injury happened two months before the trade deadline. I don't, there was no like down the stretch heading into the playoffs. They're relying on Max Patch Ready for scoring, right? I'm sure part of the offseason plans coming in were like, all right, if we have a healthy max patch ready, he's going to be a difference maker for us in this type of setting. But they had plenty of time to kind of change course and adjust for that injury, right? The Svegenicob one is obviously in its own camp.

and entirely brutal. But yeah, for the series, I've got at 5-1-5, scoring chances 40 to 37 for Carolina, so a three-scoring chance gap. And in all situations, 50 to 45, Carolina. Now, they're winning both those. Those are very, very close margins, right? It's a huge scoring chances here or there.

And I think that paints a picture where this has been far closer than any shot attempt or shot on goals that would indicate. And something you and I have been, DMing about a lot and it's been a growing frustration of mine so far this postseason, really all year, but especially now bleeding into the postseason, has been the number of times we've seen and it happened on the broadcast last night as well on the Canadian feed. This goal save above expected stat for Sergei Babrovsky that's being thrown out in my mind

kind of recklessly because it's just being presented without any real kind of context or further scrutiny or investigation, right? And I'm not expecting Craig Simpson and and and scott cuthbert to be like talking about the intricacies of the gold save above expected during a game of course but i think when you see it on twitter it's a bit of a different story and for me right now a public model like evolving hockey has sergey bobrowski at plus 19.8 goal save above expected and his 13 games so far this postseason which is obviously ridiculous and and astronomically larger than any other one of his peers so far right i just end this series they They've got, he's given up three goals against on 14.6 expected goals against. So that, you know, some quick math here. 11.6 goals. We expected in these three games for Sergey Bobrovsky. I just don't think that is representative of the workload he's faced and what a massive achievement this has been.

I mean, he has a 9.78 percentage or whatever in these three games. Like that speaks for itself and he's clearly been the difference maker. But for me, when you see these stats floater around that aren't actually. really painting a clear picture of it. I do get a little frustrated when I see that. Yeah, and it's almost a perfect storm here, right? Because you've got the hurricanes, you know, no pun intended, a team that is just all, like they're known for throwing pucks on net.

They're known for going for the quantity. And again, I bring up the lack of shooting talent. Well, if a guy is right in front of the net in the slot, shooting on Brabowski and nails them right in the chest, that's going to count as a really high expected goal, right? Right. But we're forgetting that at the end of the day, they don't have those snipers and they're really suffering from it. So I think that's thrown in there. And also, I have access to the sport logic data and it's consistently much lower. Burbowski's goals saved above expected is usually, I don't know, a goal or two difference.

Per game, pretty much. sport logic per game when you're looking at sport logic versus say evolving hockey and uh for example verboski's last eight games so that's all of round two in the start of round three they're at 11.3 goals saved above expected which a lot which lines up a lot more with with what we've seen considering i believe evolving hockey has them at 18 in that same period so that's a whole five you know goal gap there and one looks out one looks so crazy historic and one looks like really good very very good job but you know it's not this sort of thing that we need to uh get all hyped up about and you know i the con smith as far as uh lorda is is concerned is

it's between kachuk and brabowski like there it's not like we're we're downplaying his value to their run here but things have been a little skewed as far as uh the numbers and it goes back to even the way that the NHL's tracking their stats i mean i've seen a bunch of people who bet on hockey complain about the burns brent burns shot totals this off season or sorry not off season postseason i think the dent is a screwing up my head i've had a bunch of missteps here in how i'm talking that's all right the show goes on the show goes on um and if you watch games like you're you're looking at the the shot total right on the on the scorebug and you're going, okay, it just went from 12 shots for, for Carolina to 13 after I just saw a three.

Like, it's like it doesn't really add up. Yeah. And I look back today at the, the amount of posts and crossbars that Carolina's hit. And I could have sworn in the first three games, they've hit like seven. But according to the play-by-play data, they've hit three or four. It's like, you know, there's just something going on with the way that things are being tracked. And that doesn't mean we should throw out all these stats or not look. look on evolving hockey or not look on natural stature because they're extremely valuable.

But it's been a weird postseason as far as the numbers lining up with the eye test. Yeah, I think, and there's something particularly weird going on with Florida's way of playing defense and how that is messing with it in particular, right? Because in round two, I believe that the public models had Brovsky at like 9.3 or something in that ballpark, goal save above expected in the five games, which is obviously a massive amount. it's nearly two per game. And then the private ones had him around like 3.9 or somewhere in that range. And that is a significant change.

In the first two games of this series, the public models had him at 9.02, Goals Save Above Expected. And that was largely driven by that game one, which was essentially two games in one. And they had that one at like 7.3 to 4.2 in Carolina's favor. And I watched that game very closely twice. There is no way that is what was happening. It was like scoring chances were completely even.

I think each team at 22, I actually think for it aside from that third period where the ice was completely tilted and Carolina was controlling the puck was the better team for most of those periods. And yet you come away from it being like, wow, Sergey Bobrovsky gave up two goals on 7.2 goals able to above expected. That's one of the best performances I've ever seen. And that did not line up with what you actually would have watched if you were paying attention to where those shots were coming from and who they were coming from.

And so I think this is an important differentiation. I think it's also, you know, part of what we try to accomplish here on this show and the PDOCAST is you take some of these numbers and then you peel back a few layers and you try to kind of, you know, apply a little intellectual curiosity, right? Like try to figure out, all right, why this is, why this is happening, what's going on, what could possibly be some theories that explain this. And so I wanted to get into that a little bit with you here today in terms of you've already sort of mentioned a few of the key points there in terms of where the shots are coming from and who they're coming from for the hurricanes. The notes that I've got here are, one, I think the quality of the shot type, right? And so I mentioned that the scoring chances in the series have been 50 to 45 for Carolina. That's in three games, but technically 13 periods of play. That's a very low amount, right?

And I'm not surprised to see Florida have only 45 scoring chances because Carolina is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and we know that they suppress that very well. But it being so close actually speaks to how Florida's, Florida is very comfortable with the way the series is being played because they clearly have more finishing talent and more high-end shooters to convert those chances. So if they're going to be that close, I would expect Florida to convert a higher percentage of them, right? If it's going to be a completely even split in that regard, Florida should have more goals

scored so far than Carolina. So I think in terms of that specific just kind of quality of shot type, I think that's an important piece of this puzzle here. Sure. And I think what I really love about clear site analytics, obviously Kevin Woodley when he's on to talk about goalies, cites it often is they account for screens, they account for just not every shot is created equal. And that's something we're seeing in this series to the end degree

where, you know, I don't know. I just, it goes back to the Toronto series as well against Florida. I find that, again, you know, it's probably, Florida's defense and how they're controlling what's being thrown on net. But I find that Brovsky, although he's made obviously some phenomenal stops, a lot from distance, a lot like just one-on-one goalie versus player versus going through layers of screens. And, you know, less jam plays than you would expect. And let's face it, Florida's also gotten some pretty good bounces, right?

like how many times over our life when we've been watching hockey, have we seen those goals off a skate or just a fluky bounce? And that just hasn't happened to Florida. So I think that's part of it too. The luck's been in their favor to some extent in terms of the just the weirdness, not really tipping towards their net. Well, in these past two series in particular, I think the first round against Boston is kind of its own isolated series.

really apply to this. But in these two against Toronto and Carolina so far, I do think Florida deserves a ton of credit for how masterfully they've been winning a lot of these battles in front of their net, right? Like their defensemen have been tying up sticks, been pushing opposing forwards out, giving Bobrovsky kind of clear sight to see some of these shots. It feels like, and you know, this is part of also I think why he's looking so impressive to the eye is he's making a lot of confident saves, right? Like he's like, you don't need to be Kevin Woodley or a goal. goalie expert to notice him coming out and just like absorbing shots in a very controlled manner. The reason why he's able to do that beyond the fact that he's clearly feeling himself and

seeing the puck very well is the Panthers have turned a lot of these shots into like one-on-one battles between shooter and goalie, right? Like he hasn't necessarily had to account for a lot of anything else. And that's a testament to them also credit to him for winning those battles. But we know that what if you give your goalies that opportunity to just square up a shooter one-on-one, one, they most more often than not will save it. They might not have a 978 save percentage in three straight games, but they will do pretty well more often than not, right?

So I wonder if there is kind of something to think about kind of like an unknown cumulative effect that exaggerates Carolina's problems even more in the sense that, you know, we always talk about, you hear goalies talk about particularly about how they like to see and feel the puck early in a game, right? Like they would like to get some of those warm up. shots under their belt where a few point shots, a few kind of easy straight line ones,

absorb it, get your same percentage up, feel good, feel like you're in the game and you're getting in the zone. And a lot of these games, it does feel like Bobrovsky in particular has been able to get those. And then I wonder if that makes him even more likely to make a stop on a legitimately difficult shot when it comes up because it's in a different sort of playing environment than it would have been otherwise. It's a difficult thing to sort of quantify. It's like, oh, he's made eight easy saves, and then that makes him more likely to make the ninth difficult one. But it does feel like that would intuitively make sense based on everything we know about goalies

and how they like to talk about that trend. I think that's fair. And I think there's, if Carolina does end up losing this series, which is obviously very likely, or if they get swept, I don't think it's a matter of like, oh, we need to fire Rod Brindamor. I think he's just an elite coach. But I do wonder if there's a conversation to be had in their front office, in their coach's room about at least throwing a wrench into their system, like playing slightly differently.

Obviously, it works in the regular season. It works generally in the playoffs as far as controlling play. But whether it's the offense running through the defenseman too much or the roster having too many of the same type of forwards, like there's something wrong with the mix there. And obviously, this is easy to say when they're down three nothing. And again, I think Brindamore's, you know, top five coach. in the league. And it just comes down to though that they've had essentially the same problem his entire tenure. When it comes down in the playoffs, they can't capitalize. They can't get those

important goals. And it's not a matter of like, oh, their star players just aren't capitalizing. It's like, no, they just don't have a lot of those finishers in general. And perhaps their playing style is not conducive to winning the playoffs. I don't know. Yeah, it's like the Shaq meme. You can't fool me. I'm familiar with your game, right? Last year against the Rangers, Igor Shostirkin had a 947 say percentage in his series against the hurricanes.

The year before, Andre Vasilisky had a 941 say percentage in his series against the hurricanes. There was a series in the bubble against the Bruins where they did okay, actually, offensively. But the one before where they got swept by Tukharask, he had a 9.56 save percentage in that series.

And obviously, these are like high-end goalies, especially Sastrickin and Vasselovans. recently. I think that is part of like no one would have expected you to put Bobrovsky at this point of his career into that tier. So that I think the kind of how it runs to counter our expectations is part of this discussion. But the other point I wanted to make here, I really do believe like this is this is not a matter of getting goalie. This is a matter of the hurricanes kind of canzing themselves, right? Like the distribution of shots and this was very highlighted in game three for me. And I thought the game three, the way to play it

out was the perfect microcosm for some of these issues that availed them. In that game, people see the hurricanes control the puck the entire game, right? The 5-1-5 shot shares at the end of the game, they were like in the 70s. I think the shots on goal might have been 31 to 9 or something at 5-1-5 for them by the time the game was over. And so you see that and you're like, all right, in my head, they were the better team, they had the puck, they controlled the flow of the game, they deserve to score and they deserve to win.

But here's the reality. The scoring chances in that game were 12 to 11, all situations. for Florida, so they had more of them. The defensemen for the hurricanes accounted for 60% of their shot attempts. For Florida, it was 36%. And that's been held true pretty much for his entire series. It really feels like Brandon Montour, who's almost like a fourth forward out there for Florida, is the only defenseman who actually has a green light to really shoot,

other than if Gus Forsling kind of pops open as a delayed trailer or whatever in transition. But for the most part, none of their other defensemen are shooting, whereas you compare that to Carolina strategy. And as you mentioned, it's Burns, Slavin, Pesci, Shea, are their leading shot takers in this game in the series, right? And so I think that's an important piece of this. It's how they play. It's kind of unfair to, and it's gotten them this far. It's unfair to be like, well, Rod Rindamor needs to make the adjustment of telling a Brady Shea instead of pumping a point shot to pass it down low for his forwards to work the cycle and try to get a shot closer to the net.

That's just not really in their DNA. And part of it is personnel, part of it is system. but I think that's an important thing here. Like you watch that game three and they go into the third period. They're down one nothing. The only chance they get is a shot from Brett Pesci in the slot where I think he hits the post. And that's otherwise everything else gets choked off early in the game. You know, you talk about the shooting talent.

Sebastian Ajo is the one exception here where like he's clearly a very gifted offensive player and he's created a ton of chances and he has nothing to really show for it, especially at 5-1-5 in this series. And that is unfortunate. I feel like he's certainly individual. individually is due for much better. But beyond him, after he got choked off a little bit on those chances, there was nothing else in the way of meaningful looks.

And that's a real problem. And that's something that Carolina is going to have to figure out, because at some point you do bump into this type of a glass ceiling. Like, it's one thing to be competitive and in the playoffs and winning a lot of regular season games and sticking around and hoping that one year you get the breaks and it goes your way. But when you keep losing in the exact same fashion year over year, if you are serious about winning a Stanley Cup,

I do feel like that's something that needs to be legitimately talked about and addressed internally. Yeah, and just to circle back on the actual finishers that are in the lineup, like, you mentioned Ajo, a ton of looks. I think Jarvis has had a pretty good series. Yeah, I mean, him and Ajo has been really dangerous. I agree. Yeah, but NACS is really disappointed.

And then Tara Vinen seems still hurt or rusty or something's going on there where he just doesn't quite look himself. So, and then you can't rely on a Jordan stall to carry your offense. Like he might pitch in a goal here or there, but I just don't know if, if you should really be putting that load on him. So, yeah, part of its roster construction, part of its system. Like, I think it's pretty simple in that sense. Yeah.

Well, that was, you know, it's funny, and lost in all this, Hurricanes goalies, right? They use both Freddie Anderson and Antirante in this series, have a 942 say presenters themselves. And the entire discourse is like, ah, well, sometimes you just, you know, the other team has a better goalie. And meanwhile, these guys are like, we have a 942% and what do you want from us? And they've been really good themselves. Like no real, you know, stinkers or bad goals in there.

It's been a lot of just high-end displays of skill by Florida's guys who have converted some of these shots. And I guess that is the embodiment of this series and kind of a perfect encapsulation of where these teams have differed. But yeah, generally, if you give up six goals in 13 periods, the way Hurricanes goleys have combined to, you probably feel like you're going to win more of those games and not, and they just have nothing to show for it so far. Absolutely. Okay, let's take our break here. And then when we come back,

a few other notes on this series before we move on to the Western Conference and some other NHL notes. So yeah, we'll do that after the break. You're listening to the Hockey-Pedio cast streaming on the Sports Nighter Radio Network. Your number one spot for Flames coverage can be found on Flames Talk with me, Pat Steinberg.

Exclusive interviews trusted inside and the latest news. Listen live weekday afternoons in four or stream the Flames Talk podcast on demand. All right, we're back here in the HockeyPedio cast with John Mattis. John, we're talking, Hurricanes Panthers. Let's do a few other notes on this series.

Did we give Bob Brodsky enough love? Because I did a whole rant before I went to break about how the goals table above expected numbers and just generally how the league tracks expected goals for a lot of these public sites now is not accurate at all, and that's been the case all season. And I didn't mean for that to come across as like,

Sergei Beroski has actually not been very good because he's given up three goals against in 261 minutes. He has a 9.78% of this series and a 9.35 in the postseason so far in 13 games, one 10 of the last 11. I mean, he's been obviously remarkable. I just wanted to clarify that, so it's not taken the wrong way. No, that's fair. And I think he's been fantastic.

and I just love the arc of this guy, right? Like in his 20s, he wins two Besna's, but like in between there, there's some like bad seasons. In his 30s, he gets a huge contract, really has not lived up to it until this moment. And it's like the ups and downs of that, the roller coaster of that mixed in with the fact that he's had a couple of opportunities

with the questions in the media this postseason to sort of just say like, yeah, I'm back, yeah, I'm here. Yeah, I earn my money. but he's been, you know, throwing the cliches out there. And I just kind of like that, that quiet confidence that he's, he's exhibiting. And, I mean, Panthers are not where they are right now without them. I mean, I think that's, that might be the way to get straight to the point with that in terms of, like I said, previously, him and Kachuk, that's my favorites from, from Florida.

And I think maybe there's, there's Montour there, a third, but those are the two guys. Yeah, I mean, the expectations just fact, how. to factor into the magnitude of what he's doing this postseason, right? Like in the regular season, plays 50 games, has an 896, 8 percentage. He was healthy at the end of the year, and they chose to, at the end of the regular season, to claw their way into the playoffs. And then in the first three games of round one against Boston, play a 30-year-old journey mongoli with 42 NHL games to his name over him.

And then eventually they make that change, and he rips off this tear. And it's, I think, just from a, like, a surprise level perspective, beyond, like, not being surprised at the hurricanes aren't scoring, but just the totality of what he's done in these 13 games is certainly nothing short of miraculous. And you made at this point earlier as well, for all you want to talk about, like low percentage shots and kind of easy ones for him,

how often do we see some of those still bounce in or trickle through or get past you? And for him, from a shot to shot to game to game perspective, to not really get beaten by any of those for this long of a period of time now has to be quite stunning and that part should definitely be frustrating for the hurricanes and their fans.

For sure. And also just to circle back on the sort of narrative around Bobrovsky, his backup is supposed to be Spencer Knight. Like, the hockey world's kind of forgot about that kid. I know he went into the player assistance program. So it's very serious stuff.

But like there was a point there in the season where it was Brobrovsky. And then it was like this Alex lion guy who no one knew anything about. He's this journeyman. You know, there's a reason why he hasn't really played in the NHL and he's 30 years old. There was a real, like, awkward situation there where it's like, is this going to go super sideways for the panthers down the stretch? Are they going to miss the playoffs? And it's, it's become a matter of Robowski not even needing a backup after starting on the bench for the playoffs.

So it's just been a wild ride. and I guess we'll see how it plays out here because after the Toronto series, I'm going, okay, it's very possible that he becomes a pumpkin here in round three, just because of the guy's history.

He hasn't exactly been, you know, Mr. Consistency here. So good for him. And I want to just spin it forward in terms of talking about a guy who's really impressed me this playoffs. Sam Reinhardt.

I know that you're a huge fan, can we talk about him for a second? Yeah, I mean, he's the league leader in 200 IQ plays. So, yeah, yeah, because I lay it on me. Well, okay, so I find that he's kind of been forgotten about just generally across the league, right? Like, he goes to the Sabres. They're a smaller market. I know they're in a northern city, but they're relatively small.

Obviously, is attached to Eichl as far as that era of Sabres hockey. And it's not, that's mostly negative stuff. goes to the panthers another small market and he's just really flourish there. I mean, the thing about him is that he's so deceptively strong. Like he's not quite physical

right. I wouldn't describe him as that, but he rarely loses puck battles and he's just always around the net. I mean, if you go back and look at his goals from his entire NHL career, there are either deflections, tips, rebounds,

or him jamming it on a wrap round like we saw against the Leafs. He's got great hand-eye. I just feel like he's the type of player that would be so easy to play with in terms of his stick's always there. It's always available. He creates a ton off the cycle. I've just become such a big fan of Reinhardt over this postseason because it's just so easy

in a league of whatever, 750 players to forget about a few guys. or, you know, go, hey, yeah, Reinhardt's a good player, but you don't really, like, deep dive the guy, and then the playoffs roll around, and you really zero in on certain teams, and he's just jumped off the page. And one last thing is, you know, in those final three minutes of game three,

where Carolina had the net empty, and they're trying to get into Florida zone. Reinhardt had a fantastic back check on Ojo. They were trying, the hurricanes were trying to get out of their own zone, and they're kind of fumbling around, and finally Ajo gets the guy who can make that exit, you know, nine times out of ten. But Reinhart's just all over him. And it just really stalled anything that Carolina was trying to do in that final minute there.

So props to him, he's got seven goals, which is tied for the team lead with Kachuk. But I feel like we're just hearing about Kachuk. And yeah, just want to give a show to Mr. Reinhard here. He deserves that love. You talk about the journey kind of to get to this point. I mean, what a fascinating trade that got him to floor. Florida, right? I think Sabers fans should be very happy with the return they got in Devin Levi and Yuri Kulich, who's having one of the most productive HL seasons for his, for his, you know,

peer group in terms of age ever. So one heck of a haul, but I think smart Sabers fans during that entire era viewed Reinhardt as like a shining light in an otherwise very, very dark environment. And it was because of a lot of these plays where it doesn't necessarily pop up and highlight reels, but he just consistently strings together very, very smart plays. And you highlight that one in game three. I'll give you another one. You know, the goal, obviously, his work in the bumper on the power play has been fantastic. He's got the seven goals there.

He's just so good at finding open pockets and waiting for a kuchuk to get him the puck there and then ripping it on net. But earlier in the game, I believe they were short-handed at the time. It was kind of towards the end of a penalty kill in the first period. he's kind of in alone, deep in the zone, and he buys enough time to get fresh skaters out for the Panthers. And then he winds up working it around the boards and hits Gus Forsling for like a wide open point blank grade eight opportunity. And it was one of those plays where in the wrong hands, nothing would have come of it. In fact, either he would have just, you know, panicked and threw away the puck or, you know, turned it over.

And then it would have went back the other way and looked very poor on him. But instead, he wins a battle, extends the play, buys time, and it turns into a great opportunity. And I thought that was just like such a perfect summary of what Sam Reinhart does so brilliantly. So yeah, kudos to him. He's been fantastic and well deserving of the praise we just heaped upon him. Brandon Montreur as well, I think, deserves a lot of credit, right? 108 minutes so far in these three games, obviously the whatever, 56 or something in game one. But, you know, we were messaging about this as well.

in game one, it was that third overtime. He's like, he looks like he is just coming back from a two-month injury and is like very excited to be back on the ice and playing. Everyone else is just like miserably doing these like 30-second shifts and then trying to get off the ice because they're so tired. And then you have Brandon Montre there was like a three-minute shift he had, which culminated in him having a one-on-one scoring chance in front of the net against Freddie Anderson that he didn't wind up scoring on.

But it was like, man, this guy's ability to get involved. extend plays, kind of sniff an opportunity to tack and then opportunistically get in there has really shined. And his fitness is obviously through the roof. He's an absolute lunatic in my opinion out there in the best way possible. He ripped like a hundred mile an hour clapper at the buzzer in game two. Just every superlative from like a physical perspective is deserving for what Montura is doing in the series so far. Yeah. The key with modern defenseman, right, is that, or at least modern defenseman of his ilk where there's more offensive ability than perhaps defensive ability, though, he's pretty good defensively.

But Maurice is going to trust him to join the rush, lead the rush, because in a couple of strides, he can come back. He can be the first guy back, even though he's the guy leading the rush. And it's so effortless. It's Miro Heishkin-esque in terms of the conditioning, the I guess it just seems like even when he's on two or three minutes for a single shift, I feel like the last 10 seconds are just as valuable as the first 10 seconds,

whereas you see some players and they're just completely gas. Yeah, they fade, right? They just completely fade and you're like, get this guy off the ice or he's going to cost your team a goal. I find that Montour doesn't really have that in him. I mean, obviously, if you took a real microscope to it, I'm sure you'd find some weak moments, but this series, he seems to, as you mentioned, be having a ton of fun.

And, you know, we've been talking about journeys and stories and whatnot a lot with Brobowski and Reinhardt. I mean, what Montor has done in terms of going from the ducks to the sabres and now to the Panthers and just exploding this year is quite something in and of itself. And I, as someone that was from afar and not really digging into the video or anything, at one point this year when Eckblad was out Montere was getting a ton of ice time

and I'm going like this can't continue like I just didn't I thought that he was more of the you know number two guy three guy whatever and it just seemed like they're running this guy in the ground

and it really shows the lack of depth on that blue line but then in the playoffs it's been almost the opposite it's like give this guy as many minutes as possible and it's been well deserved so another example of a guy who

because he's in Florida gets overlooked a lot. And I considered him for my Norris ballot. He didn't ultimately make it. But he certainly kept the train rolling here in the postseason and arguably look better than he did in the regular season. Yeah, his energy reserves in some of these shifts are quite remarkable. He needs to a, I want to know his workout routine. I got to get on doing some of these exercises because he's clearly doing something right.

Okay, one final note on this, I guess. We should mention, Sasha Barkov's injury as well, right? Left game three early. Didn't wind up coming back. Curious to see how this plays out, you know, they are up three nothing. So I assume they wouldn't be rushing him

if he wasn't ready to come back. We'll see if he does play in game four. I thought that in the first two games, he had a very strong case for being the best skater, cumulatively in those two games. You know, in game one, him Brahege and Duke Claire do so much of the heavy lifting

offensively for Florida in terms of creating the goals early and then just getting a lot of scoring chances until Kachak finally breaks through at end of that fourth overtime. And he's also, you know, that he has the unbelievable display of skill in game two

on that goal he scores. He's basically serving as I mentioned Montreur's kind of like a fourth forward for Florida. That's possible because Barkov is almost like a third defenseman. out there. Like he's done such a, Corey Schneider did a really good job

of highlighting how much of the heavy lifting he's done deep in his zone, breaking the puck out, carrying it out, you know, efficiently without turning it over in those first two games

and how valuable that is for this team. And he's also eating up that Jordan Stahl matchup, right? We've spent so much time this post season talking about how that was a huge difference maker because other team,

because the hurricanes were just putting him on Barz Allen Horvath. They were putting him on Jack Hughes and winning those minutes and neutralizing the other team. top offensive threats. Well, in this case, Barkoff was winning those minutes against that matchup,

and that was also allowing a trickle-down effect of everyone else to have an easier go of it, right? And so if he's going to be out, that's obviously going to be a huge game changer here. Hopefully, it sounds like it's not going to be a serious injury, but he does have a pretty extensive injury history, especially with the kind of like little minor ailments that keep him out longer than you'd probably think they would. And so certainly some of the monitor as we move forward to game four.

Yeah, one of those things where if Florida sweeps in this round, then they hope to God that the West Series continues to whatever, seven games or whatever, because, I mean, going into the Cup final, and we're thinking ahead a little bit here because I guess it's possible that Carolina comes back, but going to the Cup final without Barkov, that's deadly. And with the whole stall versus Barkov matchup, I was looking into that after two games and thinking if I'm Paul Maurice, I'm going to like, I'm going to keep that going to go. I'm going to not take Barkov away from

stall and just just get that sort of blanketed, that that stall line just taking care of and let the Kachuk line cook in some other way. And obviously there's a right heart line too. So it's just such a benefit to have Barkov down the middle there and be, I don't know, top five as far as the three zone player in the in the NHL and he's certainly far past the most underrated in the league since he was for what five six years like we got we got to drop that tag but he's still really fun to watch and just a master of subtleties and little details I'm kind of curious for your take on this how do we how do we reconcile like how enjoying sort of this magical playoff run as it's happening versus

you know, kind of balancing your head versus your heart, I guess, where it's like, this is, this is sort of the beauty of the NHL postseason, right? This kind of, this run by a team that you wouldn't have picked to do so at the start of it versus this idea that we seem to want to like, because we talk about how the league, it's a copycat league. And so when a team does have success, the way the Panthers are one game away from from representing the East and the Cup final, there's a, there's a rush or an urge for everyone to be like, well, what kind of lessons can we draw from this? What takeaways can we make? What have they done that we can

incorporate to hopefully have this type of run in our future as well? And it almost takes away, I guess, part of like that charm of enjoying it in the present because it feels like everything needs to be spun forward into a bigger picture conversation where I don't necessarily think it needs to be. But I do get it, especially if you're a fan of a team that isn't playing right now, obviously a lot of what's happening is you're using that to kind of frame it through your experience as what you want from your own team moving forward. Yeah, the thing with the Panthers is that not only were they the eight seed in the east who barely made it in, but they made this blockbuster trade last off season that could have went in many different ways and it turned out

wonderfully for them. And if you're in another market, you're saying, dear GM, let's do that. Let's be bold, let's go crazy. But the chances of those hitting are, I don't know, not super high. And the circumstances around that trade were just so unique that I don't know if we would ever really see it again in terms of Calgary really having little leverage and Kachuk wanting to sign with Florida. It all really lined up quite well for Florida. But they also gave up a lot. Like people are forgetting at the time of the trade, it was like Bill Zito is really hitching his wagon to Matthew Kach here. phenomenal player, you know, if you're going to bet on someone, that's the guy. But still,

it could have blown up in his face. So it's one of those small sample size things, right, where it's like this is maybe more of an anomaly than a trend. And they're certainly not a perfect team. You're not looking at them like Colorado you could look at last year and go like up and down that lineup, quality players, they play with a certain pace, they play with this connectivity. Obviously, Florida and their forechecking, that's sort of their trademark. And maybe there's something to be pulled out of there in terms of how methodical they are with it. And the X's and O's of that. But it's not like forechecking is something new, right? It's been part of the game for decades. So it's a tough one to wrap your head around in terms

of the lessons. Yeah. I know there's people around the league that are worried. It's like, what lessons will people take from this in terms of, you know, just talk. walking yourselves into, oh, well, my team can be very mediocre in the regular season and sneak in as the eighth seed and go on this magical run. And you mentioned the unique circumstances of this. This is a team that won the president's trophy last year and then acquired a player that's going to finish top three in hard voting this season in his prime. It's, I don't think your 16th best team in the league, whoever it is, is applicable to this situation that the Panthers found themselves in. And I will also say that, you know, if you're if you're trying to take lessons from how they play, I do, I'd be happy with that because I think they play a very modern game offensively.

They attack a ton off the rush. Then if they don't, they try to, you know, they specifically try to funnel the puck into certain areas of the ice. They play very aggressively off that forecheck. And I just think there's, there's a lot to nitpick with the way they build their team, especially the blue line and some of the players they get minutes to. but there's also a lot to like as well. And ultimately, the can buy man is people are going to see what they want to see regardless, right? Like I don't think the hurricanes winning the cup this year would all of a sudden change someone's opinion who otherwise believed that analytics was complete rubbish into being like,

all right, well, the hurricanes won. So you know what? I'm a believer. And I need to change the way I think about hockey because people just see what they want to see. The abs won last year. They use analytics in their front office. as much, if not more than anyone in the league. And I did not see very many think pieces about how they changed the game of the way in that regard.

It was a lot focused around the usual suspects of their top players. And then that's totally fine. Those are the guys that won the cup for them. But I just, I think it's kind of a bit naive, I guess, to think that anyone's opinion is going to drastically change based off of the perception of how a team was built or the way they operate. And so, I don't know, I've been enjoying this Panthers run. Like it's, it's been chaotic. It's been fun. A lot of close games, a lot of coin flips.

It's nothing wrong with that. I wouldn't necessarily be like, all right, well, even if they win the cup this year, they should be the favorite heading into next year. I think it is a bit of an isolated magical run in that regard. But that doesn't necessarily mean that it should take away from like the enjoyment in the present. Well, I remember having a conversation with you, Dimitri, I don't know, midseason roughly, where we were talking about the Panthers and how their real window since they have, Kachuk under contract for so long and he's so young,

would kind of start next year. And obviously that takes a bridge year. Yeah. Yeah, where you got Hornquist, you know, money on your cap, you've just got like a little bit of dead weight. You're transitioning from a certain playing style to another, or at least incorporating new nuances into it. You've got a new coach.

There's just a lot going on, a lot unsettled. So we were like, we kind of came to the conclusion, okay, you know, if they make the playoffs this year, that's great. That's gravy. This is about the future and there's some really good foundational pieces here. But hey, they turned it into something far greater than that. Yes. All right.

Any parting thoughts here, John? I wanted to talk a bit about Stars Golden Knights with you. I know you told me you're working on a Hawaii Johnston piece potentially. It's just that game three is happening tonight. By the time people listen, the window is very short in terms of like the expiration date for a lot of the takes here. But obviously that's another series two overtime game. Dallas probably should be kicking themselves about not taking game two, but they're right there in it.

And I'm very curious to see how this series plays out as we transition to Dallas. Yeah, obviously this is easy to say now that Carolina is down three nothing, not two nothing, but I thought after both game twos, if you looked back on what had happened, I thought that Dallas was in a better position to turn their series around. And they still are, obviously, because we're talking pre-game three. I feel like Ottinger hasn't played to his lofty standards. He's looked a little human.

I've noticed that, and this could just totally be anecdotal, but it seems like Vegas is targeting action from the goal line, whether it's passes, you know, behind the glow line or just, you know, that howding goal was literally off his back or whatever it was. I don't know if that's something that they've identified as a weakness, because Ottinger, as, you know, we both love this player. Not much there in terms of, you know, major weaknesses. And I think what's been exposed a little bit by on Dallas's side is Ryan Souter.

I mean, whether it's the loyalty to Souter by D'Bor or, you know, Jim Nill's lack of talent on the blue line in general in terms of what he's given the board to work with, it's been exposed in this series. It's not exactly breaking news. It's been an issue all season. Yep. But you especially saw it in the game two tying goal where not only does Souter give the puck away, but then he fails to do anything in front of the net as far as tying up his opponent.

And it just wasn't a great look. And it just makes you think is the defense core there just not up to not up to, I guess, Stanley Cup final quality. Yeah, the double standard of how veteran players are treated in this league compared to young players, especially in these moments where they make those types of mistakes is very irritating to me, right? Where Suter makes it, well, he's right back over the boards on the next shift. And after the game, he's not taking any responsibility instead, not that I'm expecting

to be like, listen, I'm sorry for messing up. But it's like a very arrogant response in my opinion to the users, like instantly deflecting and just being like very short with the media as opposed to if a young player did that, put yourself in those shoes. All of a sudden, it would be such a big story. and people would just be absolutely roasting them the entire time. And so it's a bit frustrating for me. But I will say, you know, on the note of the blue line and kind of the personnel they have there,

a key for me to watch here as the series transitions to Dallas. You mentioned how, you know, they're in a bit of a better position to turn this around. Part of it is that, you know, they play the first two games in the road. Now they're going home with last change. And Jack Eichel, who's been the best player in this series so far, Bruce Cassidy once again did a wonderful job of getting him out against that S. Lendell, Colin Miller pairing of. bunch in the first two games with the benefit of last change. And so I'm very curious to see how

that changes here in games three and four and whether Pete DeBoer can kind of take control of that matchup and get Miro Haskinen out against him much more often and whether that does anything to slow him down because that Ikel, Barbashev, Marshall, Soul combination has been just wonderful all postseason so far. So I'm going to watch there. John, we've got to get out of here. I will let you tell the listeners what you're working on and where they can check you out. Yeah, so I'm on Twitter. Mattis John, M-A-T-I-S-H-N. I tweet out all my stories. Nothing, you know, coming out imminently on Y. Johnson.

But we're going to put that on the background for now. Yeah, on the backburn a little bit. I mean, it doesn't help that they're down to nothing, right? Right. Like, it's just the way she goes. But other than that, pleasure to be on the show again. And, yeah, looking forward to coming back sometime soon. All right, John, well, this is a blast.

We will certainly have you back on. We'll be back tomorrow with another episode of the PDO cast. Looking forward to that. As always, streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.