The Hockey PDOcast - Lack of Offense, and Personnel vs. Game Plan Issues

Episode Date: April 29, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by John Matisz to break down what we saw over the weekend in the Bruins vs. Leafs and Oilers vs. Kings matchups, and how they've highlighted the differences in creating offense in the playoffs compared to the regular season.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey P.D.O.Cast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Volovich. And joining me today's my good buddy, John Mattis. John, what's going on, man? Not a whole lot. Just back from Pat leave last week.

So getting used to the old two-kid rotation. We've got man-on-man coverage at home. So doing that, playoffs are in full swing. I mean, it's a good time of here, man. That's good. That's good. No, it's very exciting to have you back. Congratulations to you and your wife as well. This is going to be fun. So we're coming off. It's a Monday show. We're coming off a fun weekend of playoff hockey. We're going to talk about some of the games we saw along the way, some of our big takeaways, kind of apply it moving forward to what it means.

And so I want to start with you about Leaves Bruins because obviously the Bruins win that game on Saturday to turn the series into a 3-1 lead heading back home with a chance to close it out. And unsurprisingly, there's a lot of conversation about where things have gone wrong along the way for Toronto, how these games have played out. And I'm not sure if you agree with this. But for me, I don't think the outcome was necessarily shocking. I picked Leif's in seven just because I thought both these teams were incredibly close. It was going to be a coin flip series. And I just thought, you know what? I think they're going to get over the hump against this Bruins team that I think is pretty limited in a variety of ways.

Now, all that being said, watching this Leafs team this season, you could say kind of the same stuff about them in terms of some of their flaws and directions they chose to go in terms of their personnel and roster building. And all of that's kind of cropped up here. But I think what makes this such a big story beyond it being the leaves and everyone is going to talk about it regardless is the way it's happening, right? Kind of the aesthetics of it, certainly like the meltdown in game four and kind of everything that's transpired along the way.

So it's not necessarily the final result or at least through these four games that's surprising, but I think the manner in which we've gotten there, maybe it shouldn't have been surprising given the history and how it's always going to be dramatic regardless. But it still is to me because this is just a team that looks like it hasn't really had any sort of solutions or problem solving skills for whatever the Bruins have thrown their way. Yeah, I mean, why don't we start with the neutral zone? I found that the Leafs had a just terrible time exiting the zone earlier in the series, especially game one. And then I've found as the series have gone on, the series has gone on, zone entries have

been kind of a problem. So, you know, you got to give some credit to Boston there. It's not like there's one team playing. You got to sort of divvy up the blame or the compliments. But to me, that's a lot of that's tied closely to how Boston, sorry, Toronto has constructed its blue line. I mean, so there's seven guys who have played in the series. Morgan Riley, Jake McCabe, T.J. Brody, Timothy Lilligrin, Simone Benoit, Joel Edmondson, Ilya Lubbushkin.

Riley and McCabe are the only guys who qualify as good puck movers because I guess Brody, when he's at his best, but he's so hit or miss these days. His game's really falling off a cliff. So, like, there's nothing wrong with their idea of getting bigger. I think that we've seen in the playoffs that big defense. cores can take you far. But you have to be big and useful or big and mobile. Like I think they missed that second part. So you've got Riley and McCabe just, you know, really the only reliable guys there

as far as getting the puck out of the zone or helping with the zone entries. And it's and Riley's getting crushed. I don't know if you've noticed this, Dimitri, but, you know, he's going back for a ton of pucks and getting hit kind of shades of Miro Heshkin in last year. I just looked at it before we went live in terms of who's taking the most hits in the playoff so far. He's second in the entire league, so 26 or sorry, 27 hits against. So not only is he having to do so much

with a blue line that really falls off after him, but he's getting targeted by those Boston four checkers. And I don't know. For me, just I know there's a ton to talk about with this series, but the neutral zone and the Leafs inability to really get things moving in the right direction to get any sort of rush offense going has been a huge problem. Yeah, at particular, you look at the depth chart in game four, the most recent one, and that involved scratching Timothy Lilligrin,

and I wish I had been wrong about that, but if you go back and listen to the series preview, it's sort of like hint hint at the predictability of when things start to go wrong, Sheldon Keefe not trusting him and him being the first guy to kind of be taken out of that. And he is one of the rare puck movers they have in terms of that personnel group. And they just don't trust him. And you get into the spot where you're watching game four. And I mean, there is a certain level of irony of like arguably the biggest shots in that game

when it was still, they at least were down, but they had a chance to claw back in. There's a ton of momentum. The puck just happens to be on Joel Edminton's stick in scoring position multiple times. and they don't wind up scoring. I know Swayman makes one really nice save. I think the other one, certainly they could have done more with it. But you're right. The issue that keeps kind of cropping back up here,

and I think there's a domino effect, and this is the starting point. So I think in terms of this conversation, it's good to identify it as such, is these guys can't really, because of what they've chosen to do here, can't really be expected to move the puck up the ice cleanly. And so that's putting an added strain on their forwards

to have to do so much more. more. And I think you saw right out of the gate in the series in game one, the Bruins for check just devoured the Leafs defensemen. Like every time they tried to pass the puck out of the zone, it wound up being a turnover or like a puck in the neutral zone that Boston was then able to recover. And the Leafs made a bit of an adjustment as that went along and they did it really well in game two is bringing their forwards lower for support, right, giving them kind of a chance to bump the puck over to a forward and then the forward makes the play out of the zone. And that works well. But the issue then is you're just putting so much more on the plate for the forwards to then

have to do that and then maneuver through more bodies to get into the neutral zone and then expect them to also attack off the rush and make plays off of entries. And that's where things have really come to a head here for them. And sort of that's a big reason why I think their offense is dried up because they're essentially just buying Boston extra time to set up a roadblock in the neutral zone along their blue line. And especially when they get out to a lead in some of these games, like you can watch it in game four, they were just sitting back and being like, we're not worried about, we're going to

apply like a very rudimentary forecheck here. And then as soon as you get into neutral zone, you're just going to have nowhere to go. And they just kept bumping into these roadblocks. And it keeps happening over and over again. And it must be maddening because you almost can't even get started or get going in the first place. This is a matter of them getting into the zone and then things falling apart. They can't even get that first step down. Absolutely. And once the Leafs do get into the offensive zone, they have you know I was looking at the sport logic data before we came on and they've generated compared to the rest of the league and you know very small sample sizes that we're dealing with here

but in the playoffs they're second in inner slot shots per game and they're fourth in overall slot shots per game so that all sounds good but I find that there's a big disconnect between those numbers and the eye test as far as well let me let me just count on one let me just know real quick because I started to interrupt you, but that's an important point to make here. I do think there's some shenanigans going on with those that are league-wide, certainly, and we're going to talk more about it as today's show goes on. But like, John Tavares in particular is living in this blind spot right now where I think it was game two, maybe, or it might have been game one, where they had him down for like seven or eight high-danger

attempts and like some ungodly expected goals generate a number. And I'm tracking the chances for this. I'm watching it live and going back and re-watching it. it's like none of this stuff happened. Like I guess he got a puck, he got a stick on a puck that was vaguely around the net. And so they give him credit for a rebound attempt. And we know that these models typically, I think, overvalue that because it registers as being really close proximity to the opposing goalie. And so it's like, oh, well, this is a really good look that he really got into the inside.

And you go watch and it. It's like, this has no real actual practical chance of resulting in a goal. And I think that's what's happening a little bit there. I really think, like, in totality, in the aggregate, if you go back and look at it, it hasn't been nearly as dangerous as maybe those numbers might suggest. No, I mean, what I've noticed is that, and you know, I'd have to go back and watch all four games to get a real number. But I feel like I can count on one hand the number of clean, unabated shots from the slot,

the Leafs have had this entire series on Swainman. I mean, they had a little more luck with that Allmark game. But, like, sure, they're getting interslot shots. sure they're getting slot shots. Like that's good on paper, you know, in general. But what do those look like? It's a lot of jamming pucks into pads on not only the first chance, but on that second chance.

And again, like jamming pucks into pads, like there's some value there as far as, you know, you want to be closer than that. You can get those attempts past the goalie. You know, it's kind of quote unquote playoff hockey. It's the dirty areas, all that good stuff. But if you don't have that second layer of having, you know, I don't know, Marner shooting it from the slot,

you know, with his full release, without a shot blocker right in his face. Or, you know, obviously Matthews is the perfect example of that. Like, they're not getting their highly talented players, these great looks.

And for Matthews, some of that can be, actually a lot of that can be attributed to what Carlo has done and what Lynn Holma has done in that pairing's minutes against him. But in general, I just find that the leaf,

attack has been, I guess, worse than it may seem on paper as far as the numbers. Because when I watch, I go, okay, it's not the end of the world or it's not the worst thing that they got that, that, you know, that great chance right in front of Swamen. But they're pretty much just whacking the puck against the guy's pads. It would be much better if they got it at least somewhat clean and a full release or a half release on a wrist shot or a snapshot from the same spot. And I also find that there's not enough shifts in Toronto's library here in the first four games where the Boston defenders are gassed. Like the offensive zone time hasn't been there. Whether it is overall, you know, accumulated offensive zone time and the possession associated with that or just, you know, shift by shift.

I don't know how many times it's a very small number that I've looked and gone, oh, Boston really needs a change here or oh, they're going to get killed or they're hemmed in. So there's a lot going on there with Toronto's attack. That's lacking. Well, I think the broadcast correctly diagnosed that Kevin Bex in particular during one of the intermissions, where in the regular season, this is a team that is heavily based around puck possession that carries the puck in and then generates off of those entries. And even if it's not always a quote unquote rush chance, it establishes that possession time. And then they just thrive down low with Tavares and Matthews and now certainly like Bertusie and Domi at creating these high danger looks off of. those cycles and off of those extended offensive zone possessions, right? And in this type of setting versus a team that's essentially just applying like pressure

and high leverage areas of the ice and then just daring them to beat them in other ways, there's no real kind of workaround answers or solutions for them, right? They wind up like either forcing the issue and turning it over or trying to dump the puck in but aren't equipped to do so because they didn't do it all regular season. and they don't really have the personnel for it. And then so that also just plays into Boston's hands because then it allows them to start off their own possession with the puck. And NBX also noted that because of all of that,

the Leafs haven't really been able to forecheck against them either because they're like dumping the puck in. And then Boston is essentially just against two guys going back, bump, bump from partner or partner, either to the wall or to the middle of the ice, and they're just out of the zone. And then they're back in the neutral zone and they're starting out all over again.

and the Leafs then aren't able to pin them the way they want to. And so all of it's kind of tying together, but I do think that lack of rush presence, and it's staggering to watch in Game 4, right, because he's certainly forcing the issue a little bit because he missed the first three games. He's working his way back into rhythm. I think he's feeling a ton of pressure because of those things.

But you watch Willie Neelander, and he's like the one guy on this team that can consistently just work that downhill game of just taking the puck and just pushing the opposing defense back, providing some sort of a threat or concern for them and then creating off of the rush and even if it doesn't leave the chances that at least establishes that and kind of puts it in the back of their mind

that they have to account for it and respect it and no one else in the team really can do that consistently and so that's also kind of pretty jarring to see it because in the first three games I think we all were like yeah they certainly miss that and then you watch it in game four and it's like man they just need so much more of this I mean Jeremy Swayman was basically untested during those first two periods of game four

which is, you know, I don't know if it was top of the list for concerns from the least fan base because there was obviously a lot of angst there and a lot of, you know, finger pointing and whatnot. But, I mean, to me, it was unacceptable that they were unable to get anything to sway in that was super dangerous. I mean, maybe they had a few, but overall was, it was just given their history and given, and how the story has gone this year. In some ways, part for the course, and in some ways you shake your head and go, how do they get themselves in the situation?

Well, this series, goals per game, one, two, three in their only win, and then one in game one. And then that extends back to last postseason and that Panther series and even the end of the Lightning one where they've failed to hit three goals in 10 out of the last 11 games they've played. And that's a recurring theme.

that the offense is drying up in big moments, and there's no real answers to it. And I think that's what makes it so tragic that there's like, that's a visible in plain sight, and yet the people in charge keep kind of pushing the other way, right? Where it's like, oh, we have these guys, we're good on the offensive front. Now we need to surround them with complementary players, particularly from a physicality and stature perspective,

because we're all sorted there. And then when the offense dries up like this, there's just no one else they can kind of pick up the slack and help them out along the way. And that ties into the blue line certainly as well that's kind of handcuffing them and making their jobs even more difficult. But this is just a recurring theme that doesn't seem to be acknowledged really, which is kind of stunning when you think about it because it just keeps happening over and over again. Yeah, I think that's really well said where there's a problem being diagnosed as far as OK. okay, we need to be better defensively or we need to have more physicality or size or whatever, that's a little misaligned with the fact that, you know, when the offense dries up from certain people, it really dries up across the board.

I think that's bang on. I got a few other notes on that. Then I'm going to get into the individual components of it. I think maybe this could be more of like an offseason conversation, I guess, because they're suddenly going to make changes whenever they do wind up. whether it's in this series or even to come back and lose later on. But I think the confounding part for me is in just watching this play out in real time, I think anyone that was paying attention would be like,

this is kind of concerning that they keep prioritizing these types of defenders instead of the alternative. But I guess what's surprising for me is, for whatever your mileage is on him as a GM and kind of whatever your thoughts are on the job he did in Calgary, I'd argue that one of his relative strengths for Brad Tree Living was evaluations of defensemen, right? and you look at like the players they had at that position, and that was a strength for them for a long time. And yet this is the direction they've chosen to go in. And that's, I think that's kind of surprising to me.

And maybe that sort of speaks to, I think like last summer when you and I spoke, right after the leaves got eliminated, we were kind of talking like about this rift that was growing between Kyle Dubas and Brennan-chanahan and who was kind of calling the shots there. And I guess maybe this would speak that there being a lot of merit or truth to some of that stuff we were hearing at that time

about how like Shanahan was pushing certain stuff and maybe this was all part of the plan and he got what he wanted all along and so that's you kind of see the fruits of that labor I guess with this with the names you listed in terms of the defensemen that are playing for them in the series. Yeah and it's I believe year 10

of Brennan's tenure with the Maple Leafs as the president and he's been around since the start of Matthews and Marner and this entire era so you know not to eulogize them before they're dead. But I think there's going to be a ton of heat on Shanahan and obviously Keith and the mess that they have to deal with as far as figuring out what to do next year.

But I'm sure we'll have time to debrief once they're eliminated. Let's talk more about the series then. So I want to talk to you a little bit about Matthews because obviously I think the variable that we need to account for here is the fact that he clearly has been hampered by the illness he's been dealing with and he missed the third period. notably of game four after a relatively ineffectual game three and first two periods of game four by his lofty standards. And then I think now his status is in doubt for game five, although he's traveling with a team. We'll see how that all unfolds before game five. But games one and two,

he had 14 scoring chances combined by my account. And in particular in game two, it was a virtual performance, right? Like he just dominated. Every time he was out there, they're seemingly getting a scoring chance. He contributed to everything they were doing offensively. Games three and four, in the five periods he played, two scoring chances combined. And whether you want to chalk that up fully to the illness, that's certainly part of it. I would also say that in describing the coaching battle here between Montgomery and Keefe, something that I've found kind of puzzling is that in the two home games with last change, the Leafs really did nothing to try and create some easier, exploitable minutes from Matthews along the way,

because he was playing against the Linholm-Carlo pairing even more often than he had been in Boston to the point where in game four, I believe only two five-on-five minutes that he played were spent away from that pairing. And to me, that's kind of head-scratching, right? Because obviously, I'm sure there's a level of hubris where you're like, we don't want to get too far out of our game

because we have Austin Matthews. He's one of the best players in the world. He's going to score regardless. So we're not going to allow this to dictate what we're doing. We're going to just send him out there. and if they want to use that deep air against them, go for it. We still feel comfortable. But it's kind of tough for me to justify, even especially if the player is less than 100%,

you're not kind of throwing them a bone here along the way and being like, here's a couple shifts against Kevin Shaddenkirk. Like that would, I think, help along the way. And instead, there was really none of that in these two games where they really could have pushed that issue if they wanted to. I, you know, I have the receipts, I promise. Like I wrote after game two that Keith in game three when they get home ice, needs to at least strongly consider

chasing a non-Lin-home Carlo matchup for Matthews. And you touched on it there, Dimitri, where it's like there's two ways to look at it. You can look at it where you go, okay, Matthews is going to outplay the competition no matter what. So let's not worry about him.

Let's worry about the rest of the lineup and trying to get favorable matchups there. But my argument before game three was that when you get past Carlo Linholm and Maccoy, the Bruins defense really falls off, like as far, especially as far as, you know, trying to contain Austin Matthews. I mean, Chattankirk versus Matthews would be a gigantic mismatch. I mean, what Chattankirk brings is primarily on puck moving and some offensive utility. I mean, defensively, it's not pretty. So, you know, I thought that it was pretty obvious or at least it

should have been, you know, in the cards that Keith would go out of his way to make things easier on Matthews so that Matthews could really exploit his competition versus him going up 2-0-0 on Hampas Lin-Homan and Brandon Carlo in the first two games, which is good. That's better than, you know, getting shut down so you'll take it. But if you're the Bruins, you'll also take that 2-0 too, right? And then just control the rest of the game. So, I don't know, Keith, year after year after year, seems to be either outsmarted by the other coach or too late to make adjustments or makes the wrong adjustment.

I think we have a big enough sample size here that he just hasn't performed well in the playoffs as a coach. Well, he had these comments after game four that were, I'm paraphrasing right now, but they were essentially like, this is nothing about a lack of effort or whatever. And I agree with him because, I, it's the playoffs.

Every single one of these players certainly wants to win and they're trying their best. And I don't think any of these shortcomings are because they're just, they want to win less than Boston. What I will push back on the semantics of it, though, and this actually lays at, at his feet, I think, of the coach is part of the effort can also involve like execution, attention to detail and adjustments, right? Like that, that's, that's an effort. It's off, it's off the ice effort. but that's part of this effort in the scope of a playoff series. And that's where I do think they have fallen short. And I think that's like undeniable.

You almost can't because you just watch like there's certain like who's first to the puck, who's coming out of scrums with battles, like all this little stuff. And that adds up along the way. It's not necessarily why they're losing, but I think it's kind of unavoidable. And I think this sort of matchup that keeps happening over and over again is a good example of that.

And I wanted to highlight Carlo and, in particular, I spoke about him during a show at the end of last week. That was after game three. And I think we saw an even better example of it in game four where there were so many instances where Matthews would be kind of open, high in the offensive zone, or even in the slot where he usually is. And in the last second, Carlo would sort of just like unfurl his stick and put it right in the lane or right kind of to meet Matthews' stick as he's releasing.

And so he would essentially just disrupt his regular. release by just making them stop a little bit short or get rid of the puck more quickly to take some of the some of the juice off of it and make life easier for his goalie and it was just like they got a masterclass of stick on puck right like like just and this is also I think partly why some of the public expected goals models aren't necessarily correct in engaging performance along the way here because that's another slot shot for example or an even inner slot shot in some cases but it's not nearly as threatening as it would be otherwise because time and space are such a big variable in shooting efficiency and that's not really being accounted for there right so you watch a lot of

these shot attempts and it's great that you're getting to that spot but it just looks wildly different in our expectations should be adjusted as such based on what the defensive stake is doing and carlo and linojome but carlo in particular are just doing that time and time again i would love a shot disruption stat that would be phenomenal especially this time you're here on the car I thought coming in the series that Linholm would be the guy that would really shine against Matthews, if anyone were to shine against Matthews in a defensive role. Because you look at Linholm and I mean, he can match Matthews skating. He can match his size.

He can match his length, his strength, all that stuff. And, you know, it's not like, you know, he's had no impact on that matchup. But I think you're right. I mean, Carlo has been very deceptive in his stick checks. just sort of letting Matthews believe that he's not going to front him, and then he fronts him. So, yeah, top marks to Carlo, and like I said, I didn't see it coming. I thought this was going to be a Lynn Holm Matthews matchup.

Well, and you look at Carlo, so 68, 5-1 minutes so far in this series, the goals are 4-1, Boston in that time. He's played another 15 minutes short-handed, the Leafs have not scored in that time, and that's kind of what this series comes down to. And you're right. Like I think also there's in watching it play out, even though McAvoy is clearly like objectively the superior player in every way to these guys. In this particular matchup,

he gets into trouble against Matthews. And I think there's a reason why you, especially heading into the series, there was a lot made of their regular season head to head stats. And I think there's something to it that Matthews thrives in that matchup because McAvoy tries to engage him physically so often. And he like, rather than how Linholm and Carlos,

do it, which is they don't really do as much, even though they're big defenders themselves, but they lean on their reach to disrupt and kind of irritate him. McAvoy gets on the inside, and then Matthews is just going to bully ball him, and that's what he does time and time again. And so I think that's why it's almost like I'd much rather have him playing against McAvoy even though he is the better defender on paper, because I think his strengths line up with what McAvoy is trying to accomplish defensively against them. So that's something to consider assuming that Matthews is able to play game five and is closer to himself in terms of 100%.

But yeah, it's been a fascinating matchup. Do you want to talk a little bit about, do you have any Jeremy Swayman thoughts? Because obviously he's been phenomenal in this series and a big talking point. But I also just don't have necessarily anything that novel about it because he's a very, very good goalie and he's playing really well. They've done a good job of helping him out along the way. I find the talking points hilarious coming from Toronto about how they need to try to make a concerted effort of shooting high against them because they're sort of making life easy for them. They're shooting low and he's getting to everything. It's like, wow, that's profound.

You've really solved goaltending. If you shoot high and pick a corner, you're more likely to score than if you shoot it at his pads. That's really groundbreaking stuff. But that's what a lot of the conversation has been. And maybe it's because there's nothing really new to add about it. No, I'd agree. I mean, as you've discussed on the show and as I sign off on or will also say from time to time, the Bruins having Allmark in their back pocket is just tremendous.

And it's almost like they both goalies fit their system really well too. I think they're two goalies that thrive in the way that Jim Montgomery coaches defense. So perfect marriage, Swayman's, you know, if you're giving him a grade, you give him like an A minus. I mean, like, this isn't an A plus effort because he hasn't had to put forth an A plus effort. So nothing really jumps off the page

as far as Swayman analysis. Yeah, I mean, he stopped 87 of 91 shots, four goals against the three games. That is pretty good. And he's looking fresh as a daisy. And I think it's notable that he faced 500 fewer shots against this year than Connor Hella Buck. So something to keep in mind here on the day where the Vezna finalists were announced.

So, all right, John, let's take a break here. And then we come back. We'll jump right back in with you a few more kind of notes that we got ahead on this series. And then we'll talk about Oilers Kings as well on the back half. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Hey, it's Mike Halford and Jason Brough. Join us for Halford & Brough in the morning weekdays from 6 to 9 a.m. on Sportsnet 6.50.

Or on demand, anytime through your 50. favorite podcast app. All right, we're back here on the Hockey Pedyo guest joined by John Mattis. John, let's put a bow on the Leaves Bruins series. Do you want to, do you have any notes on Mitch Barter? Because obviously, a lot of the conversation throughout that game for and this series in general has revolved around him. Clearly, not anywhere near 100% physically, I think, not to make excuses because

it's the time of year where it's quite a luxury for anyone to be 100%. But as someone who has had a high ankle sprained in the past, it is absolutely brutal. And in particular, I think it must be tough for a player that does what he tries to do, which is like side to side lateral stuff and like shiftyness and like quick bursts. It really saps a lot of that, I think. And you're seeing that because his movement, I think north-south is fine. But I think in some of these other instances, particularly off the puck. And I think that's been highlighted.

doesn't look quite like it used to. And so I think that's really, I think, highlighting it and making the issues worse than they would be otherwise, but I think that is a part of this, but obviously there's a lot going on. Yeah. Marner's obviously become the punching bag of this team.

And I think it relates back to his contract negotiation, honestly, like back to when he squeezed out every penny out of that 10.9 that he's making now. So that set the tone for, for the rest of his contract and then the performance is there and kind of contextualizing

what he does. Obviously a phenomenal regular season player and he's had his moments such as last year's first round where he's played well in the playoffs had been a difference maker, but I just constantly come back to that he seems to make

for lack of a better way to put it and maybe I should actually think about how to put it but makes a lot of regular season plays in the playoffs. I find players, a lot of the players who fall into his profile as sort of a crafty playmaker, they seem to adjust to the playoffs, how it's tighter checking.

There's less room, less space, you know, more dump and chase, you know, less east-west and more north-south, all that stuff. They seem to adjust,

whereas he doesn't. Or he tries to and gets frustrated and goes back to his old ways. And he's a, you know, we talked previously in the first, block of the show about not getting a ton of great looks in the slot for the Leafs throughout the series. Marner has been playing on the perimeter a lot, which is kind of his M.O., but it's really been obvious in this series, and the Bruins have really taken advantage of that.

And, hey, part of coaching, part of pre-scouting is to identify players that you can pressure more in the playoffs that you can make life difficult on. I think they've done that with Marner, and the injury shirt certainly hasn't helped is mobility. So all around, it's been a pretty miserable series. And I get the finger pointing. I get it. It's justified for the most part.

But people are certainly piling on to a pretty great extent heading into game five. Yeah. And I get it because a lot of the issues that we talked about in part one about them just generating nothing off the rush and not being able to carry a puck into the zone and stuff are things that are sort of his bread and butter, right? And so you're going to kind of keep coming back to that.

The reality is that in this series, he's played, I think, just over 55 on five minutes so far. The Leafs have generated two goals in that time. And we mentioned Shaddenkirk before. Both of those goals have come in six head-to-head minutes against Shadn Kirk, which means zero. Wow, interesting. The other 44. And I think that's a relevant note.

Now, I would also think is relevant is he's played, like the head-to-head matchup for him, forward versus forward, has been against Pastor Nax line, right? and to their credit, they've played Pastornak to a draw at 5-1-5. I think goals are actually one-on-one in those, one-vers-one in those minutes, and that's good. And I think Pastornak has certainly been,

for his standards, pretty quiet. I know he scored the goal near the end of the period on the 2-0 or whatever in game four, but he has just 11 shots on goal in four games himself, which is way below what we're used to from such a high-volume shooter and finisher like Pasternac is. Now, I think that's all well in. good. The issue, though, is that someone like Marner is paid to produce offensively, right? And I think

the Leafs have come into this position where they keep building out the rest of the team under the assumption that him and the other top players will produce offensively. And then acknowledging that, they're like sort of building around them with the rest of the team with the complimentary guys. And so him doing a job defensively in a series like this is great, but it doesn't ultimately move the needle. because they don't have anyone else now who can create offensively in their stead, right? And so if they're not generating chances and goals, no one else in the team can.

So it's good that they're not allowing the other team to do stuff, but ultimately it's not really accomplishing the desired goal or what you're trying to get done as a team in terms of like the bigger picture or concept of how you put this team together. Yeah, and if you look at how these teams stack up offensively, you know, Pastornak's heart case was, the foundation of it was built on how many points he accumulated

versus the rest of his team in the regular season. And so you go into the playoffs going, okay, if it's Pastornak versus Matthews, the two top guys, I mean, Boston's going to be happy if they can draw that. But then you go down another level and you go,

okay, Marchan versus Marner, I mean, advantage leaves, right? In terms of regular season, in terms of Marchand being 30, and showing signs of decline based on what we saw on the regular season. And we've seen that second matchup be very lopsided.

I mean, it's been a tour to force for Marchand so far. And he's, you know, this is kind of like his Super Bowl in a way where he loves to be a Leafs killer. But three goals, two of them game winners, five assists, four of them primary assists, zero penalties taken, two drawn. And that doesn't include the countless times he's distracted. Well, to be clear, he's taken more penalties than that. He just hasn't been whistled for them. I think zero penalties whistle. That's fair.

That's fair. That's fair. I'll loop that in with the countless distractions involving Bertuzi and Domi. You know, Marchand, four takeaways, four block shots. You know, he's out there when the Leafs have their goalie pulled blocking shots, knocking pucks down, icing pucks. Like, he's really done everything. And within the context, of course, as you mentioned, with Pastor Nack playing, well, but he hasn't had a signature game like Matthews did in game too. So, you know,

coming into the series, advantage Toronto as far as offensive talent, as far as potential, but this far into the series, I mean, it's pretty obvious that Marchand's won that Marchand versus a Marner battle. Yeah. I think something to think about assuming these series in the Atlantic hold true to form and they're both three one at the time we're recording this and I've been thinking about it is I mean I would have been high on Florida regardless in round two

but in a particular matchup just based on what we've seen in this Leafs Bruin series it feels like they're sort of perfectly the Panthers are perfectly equipped to do every single thing to the Bruins that the Leafs have fallen short with

in terms of like getting the puck deep pinning their ears back and just punishing the Bruins making their defenders turn the puck over constantly and then creating chances off of it before they can get set in their structure. Essentially, like what makes the Bruins so special as an organization on the ice

and why they've been able to carry over the success regardless of who's been in and out of the lineup is there's like a level of structure that's in place and they thrive off of that, right? Especially defensively. And the Panthers are just going to instill so much chaos and pull them out of that structure like they did last. year that it's just going to, I think, give them a lot of problems. So we're certainly looking

ahead in that regard, but I was just thinking about it in terms of watching these games play out and kind of already trying to get in the headspace of what round two is going to look like. I can't stop thinking about that. Everything that we've just talked about, about the Leafs, like, oh, this is what they need to do it. This is what they aren't doing. The Panthers have shown this season that that's kind of exactly what they've gravitated towards and that's an interesting thing to think about. Yeah, and it's almost like the Leafs came into the series thinking, okay, like how can we be be disruptors, how can we be more physical, you know, how can we in a roundabout way be like the Florida Panthers? And it's hard to just turn that switch. It's hard to be the Florida

Panthers when you're not the Florida Panthers. But if you spin it forward, if it's, and we're obviously getting ahead of ourselves here, but as you mentioned, Bruins versus Panthers, I mean, that's chaos versus structure. That's a, you know, a Florida forecheck versus, you know, the Boston defense that so far has done a really good job against the elite players on Toronto. So, yeah, I would be salivating at that matchup. And even from a penalty drawing and taking perspective, you know, I think the Panthers are more aligned

with the Marchand School of Business as far as not crossing the line as much. Finding the line, towing it, scrumming it up, but for whatever reason, they avoid the penalties. And like I said, Toronto tried to be that type of team

coming in the series and it's, it's come back to the bite them in some ways. You have any other notes on the series? going to move on to a little bit of Oilers Kings to wrap up today's show. Yeah, we can do. Oilers Kings. Let's go. Let's do it.

So Edmund Oilers won on Sunday night to take a 3-1 series lead. And after nuking the Kings offensively in the first three games, where I think they had like 90 scoring chances between those three games, they won this one, won nothing while getting outshot 33 to 12. And speaking of like things that have gotten me thinking, I pose this to you because I wanted, I wanted to hear your take on it and I wanted to give you a chance to kind of kind of mull it over yourself. In watching a lot of these playoff games so far,

it feels like a common theme has been teams sort of living in the low 20s in terms of shots on goal per game. In particular, I think, like I just said this one, they had whatever 12 shots. We've seen the Canucks certainly win a number of games with 15, 16 shots themselves. It's been a bit of a recurring thing,

especially compared to the regular season. And I'm curious for your take on kind of, if you have theories on why it's happening, think if it's just sort of the nature of offense versus defense in the playoffs, if it's like a motivational thing in terms of, I think more so than in the regular season where you're sort of viewing things from a process and big picture perspective in the playoffs, all that matters is the rest of the game you're currently playing.

So like if you get out to a lead, there's like a finite amount of what you need to work towards, which is just get to the finish line in this game, get the win, and then move on and start from scratch in the next game. So I think that's motivating a little. bit, curious fear of take on kind of what's happening there. Well, I think it starts with what you just mentioned there, where the score effects is kind of

to the extreme. When the team goes up one or two nothing after the first, I mean, they're ready to lock it down for the next two periods. And that affects sort of the end result there. I actually looked at on evolving hockey at the per 60 attempts, unblocked attempts, shots on goal, expected goals, blocks in the regular season. And then what we've seen so far in the playoffs, and I'm not going to bore you with all the numbers, but basically what it comes down to is that teams are blocking more shots. They're getting roughly the same amount of attempts, roughly the same amount of shots on goal, or sorry, not because of those blocked shots.

So the expected goals are roughly the same, but there's a lot of, I guess, interference there, a lot of layers. And that makes sense. It lines up with the eye test. And also, I think, kind of to circle back. on the Leafs and them pursuing bigger bodies and trying to build a defense that looks at least on paper like the Vegas Gold Knights who won last year. I think, you know, copycat league, a lot of teams look at what Vegas did. And maybe, you know, it didn't really work out for them like with the Leafs where they sort of look at a big defense corps,

which you could have saw with Tampa and St. Louis as well, other recent Cup champs and go, okay, that's what we need to do. But then obviously identify the wrong people or acquire the wrong people. But if you do that across the whole league, you're probably going to see more block shots come playoff time. If we're emphasizing bigger bodies, longer reach, this idea of protecting the slot, protecting the house that Vegas does, I think if that trend kind of trickles out across the league,

then it makes sense that we're seeing so many block shots. And I'm saying this also with the caveat that I didn't look back on previous years and, you know, I'm sure this happens previously where the block shots go up in the playoffs. It makes perfect sense. But that's something that comes to mind. It sort of builds off your point, too, where the style of play is just markedly different in the playoffs.

Well, yeah. And I think, I'm sure this isn't you, but it also feels like it's taking it to its kind of logical extreme here. And I think maybe it's a natural progression as well of what we see in, in terms of offensive dynamic of, you know, quality, kind of trumping quantity and teams hunting. efficiency. And we're also getting to this interesting point now where I really believe, like, just looking at the box score in terms of shots on goal is, just does not accurately represent games anymore. Right. And,

and, and I think this is a great example of it for, for people who didn't stay up because I think out east, this game started at like some ungodly hour in the evening on a Sunday night. For me here in the West Coast, it was perfectly fine. I had a dinner and was able to sit and enjoy the game as much as I could because it was a pretty ugly game. But despite what the box score says, like, this was just such a peak, 2024 LA Kings game to such an infuriating degree for me because they're just so toothless offensively. And honestly, I don't cheer one way or another for teams, like I've said, but I'm glad they're on the brink of defeat because I don't know

how much more LA Kings hockey, if they're going to insist on playing this way I can watch. And this game was just such a great example of it where they wind up with the three. 33 shots. They're dominating theoretically in terms of possession. You're watching the broadcast and both during the game with a commentary team and an intermission. You're hearing like rave reviews about how the kings have come to play tonight. They're giving the Oilers everything they can handle.

They're throwing the kitchen sink at them. And then it's like, are they though? Because I'm sure the Oilers are viewing it. Like, yeah, we're pretty comfortable playing this game. If you want to tire yourself out taking all these meaningless shots, we'll live with that. I think we're okay with that. And you're seeing it in this game where it just. so like a barrage of point shots like low percentage stuff from bad angles their rush game

is appalling in my opinion where it's like I think someone needs to tell them that the person who carries the puck into the zone doesn't necessarily have to be the one to also shoot it like they're allowed to pass it off the entry and shoot off of passes they never do that and I think that's where you see it like this is a goalie's dream not to take anything away from stewart's going to shut out because it's still very impressive to just not give up any goals goals against because it means you didn't let a bad one past you and you did your job. But everything is so straight line and direct that there's like no lateral movement. So he can just camp out all day because he knows exactly who's going to shoot the puck. And so he gets ready for it. He gets in

position and he can make the save. They're just not challenging him at all. And this has been a recurring theme for the Kings. And I apologize for this lengthy rant, but it's just been driving me crazy. And it's sort of the, it's like the perfect encapsulation of everything I hate about or offensive hockey in today's game and they just do it time and time again so I had to get that off my chest. So are you saying that all the Kings forwards watched Adrian Kempe play in the regular season

and what he did off the rush and said we're going to do that in the playoffs, all of us. There's no passing, just straight line, boom, shot on goal. And obviously it works for Kempe because he's so fast and has some shooting ability to take that and blanket it across the forward group is tough to see. And it's just a lack of creativity. And even like when they get,

had a chance. I find that they're not getting that second chance. It's like, oh, there's a nice shot on goal from a good spot in the zone. Oh, that guy was wide open, point blank shot. And then, you know, the Oilers, the defense just clears it out. And that was that. There's something about the Kings right now where they don't seem to be on the same page as far as whether it's line mates or fours in the defense or the coaching staff and the players. There's usually something very off there. and of course someone like PL Dubois doing virtually nothing all series is is going to hurt. So I look forward to Drew Dowdy's quotes if they do in fact lose to the Oilers and he sounds off on a third straight first round exit. Because as we know, he's one of the more honest players in the league and I'm sure he'll have something to say.

No, listen, like it's an imperfect group from a personal perspective. And I think in particular they're sort of establishing themselves as the anti-Dallas stars in the sense that they're just like they're drafting and developing. for the past, however many years, is they're just not getting the results out of players that are highly touted and have them near the top of every prospect pool ranking every year. They're just not for a variety of reasons, whether it's a mis-evaluation or blocking their path from naturally progressing. Like, it's strange, right?

Because if you're watching it, it's like, all right, this team could certainly use Brent Clark and his offensive creativity right now. Jordan Spence, I love his game. He's playing with Andreas England who treats the puck like a grenade and can't stop taking penalties. That's not ideal. So I think there's like a misalignment, as you said there,

between a variety of forces, but I think they got to nail the next coaching hire because with all of those concerns, the personnel is still too talented to play this way. Right? Like I don't think they are at such a talent disadvantage that they have to play one three one, slow it down, shoot from the point.

hope for the best style. Like, there are problems solvers and playmakers here. And I just think it's a matter of putting them in a position to succeed. Like you mentioned P.L. Dubois, not to take him off the hook, but like, he's playing with Alex Laferrier, who's a young player. He's a rookie, but also it has like very, very minimal, if any at all, finishing ability. And so he's passing the buck to him and Carl Grunstrom, got Kevin Piala playing with Trevor Lewis last night.

Like, it's, I don't, what are you expecting to get out of these players? in that situation and in this environment. So they have a lot of stuff to answer. They're kind of going down as dark and dangerous path of being a cautionary tale almost. But hopefully they can kind of write it in the summer and nail that coaching hire.

I did want to talk about the Oilers a little bit though because Leon Dreissel in particular has been otherworldly yet again to the point where I think he's been the most impressive player I've watched so far this postseason in terms of just like how much he's creating, how on it he is. even in a game last night where they didn't really have the puck much or create a lot themselves,

he was still finding a way to be very involved and creating turnovers off the puck, just involving himself in so many ways. And this is now years now of this guy just being such an awesome playoff performer to the point where I tweeted something about him the other day. And then someone responded calling him a playoff merchant, which I found hilarious. But he's just been so good. And so I just wanted to give him some love here because I haven't talked too much. about this series so far, just because I think it's kind of gone roughly the way I expected from Edmonton dominating them offensively, but he's really stood out to me.

Yeah, I mean, whenever I watch Rice's title, I'm always amazed by his backhand. I mean, maybe not even arguably, but let's just say arguably the best backhand in the league. And what always amazes me when I, when I marvel at that is he's such a threat to shoot himself to not just use that backhand of pass to shoot, you know, whether it's wrist shot, snapshot, whatever, that defenders, they can't back off. They can't, they kind of get confused playing him. So I find his dual threat ability to be at such a high level

that it makes him just incredibly dangerous. And I, Demet, you tell me if you agree, but I find him to be a good example, the star player turning on the defensive switch, or turning it up, the dial, I should say, in the playoffs. Like I think in the regular season, like he's fine as a defensive player, but come to playoffs, you know, that effort level goes up, that attention to detail goes up. And when you're already as impactful and valuable on the defensive end, that it kind of doesn't matter what you do defensively, but you do add that defensive utility, all of a sudden dry sight is just this force of nature.

Yeah. I mean, not only does he have the eight points in four games, which is obviously really good, but he's been on the ice for 14 Oilers goals so far. my God. He's played 77 minutes. So to give you some context for that, that's tied with the Panthers and Bruins for third most goals. Any team has scored this postseason with obviously Colorado being up top. But they've done it in 240 minutes a game time.

So he has been on the ice just as an individual for the same amount of offense. It's been remarkable. And their power play is expectedly roasting them for a third straight year. And I think that's why this series is wrapping up pretty quickly. and uneventfully. Okay, John, I'll let you plug some stuff. What have you been up to now that you're back at work? Yeah, I mean, I guess the best bet, as far as people following my work,

would just be download the score up if you don't have it. I assume most people listening have it, but best in the business. So download it and follow me on Twitter because that's where I post my stories. And that's M-A-T-I-S-E-O-H-N, Mattis-J-O-H-N, No Space. And, yeah, as usual, Dimitri, love coming on. All right, buddy. Well, keep up the great work. go smash that five-star button wherever you're listening to this.

Pop into the Discord as well. Invite Link is in the show notes. It's been awesome there every night, especially these games are going along. Just so many funny takes and observations and good banter. So I think if you like listening to the show and you want to enjoy these games real time, pop in there.

And the goal is to get us to a thousand, not subscribers, hire a thousand people in there. We're getting there slowly but surely, but hopefully we can do that by the end of the season. So that's the goal. And that's going to be all for today. We're going to, I think we're going to be back on Wednesday with another show breaking down whatever's happening in the meantime.

So looking forward to that. Thank you to everyone for listening. And we'll be back with plenty more of the HockeyPedio cast on the Sports Night Radio Network.