The Hockey PDOcast - Level of Concern About Florida’s Recent Play, and Breaking Down the Kings vs. Oilers Matchup

Episode Date: January 14, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Shayna Goldman to talk about Florida's extended run of middling results and what's been causing it, the battle between the Kings and Oilers and the issues that continue to linger for Los Angeles in that specific matchup, and attempting to quantify the impact of coaching changes around the league. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PTOCast. My name's Demetri Filippovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Shana Goldman. Shana, what's going on? Hey, thanks for having me today. It's going to be a fun one. The plan for today's show is we're going to go through Monday night's slate of games, unpack some of the bigger picture takeaways we have stemming from them.

There was a couple fun matchups and some things to look ahead. So we're going to get into all that. Let's start with Panthers Flyers. And I want to start off right out of the gate by asking you a question. What's your level of concern right now for the Florida Panthers based on the sort of relatively middling results they've been having for certainly the past month, but even maybe stretching beyond that. I know they had that seven game winning street kind of early November or so. And since then they've been playing around 500 hockey. We've seen some high certainly where they've played their A game and blown teams off the ice.

and then a lot of very uncharacteristically middling games from them. I classify this one on Monday night against the Flyers as one of those. What's your level of concern right now in terms of what we're seeing from the Panthers? I'm going to go like a 5.5 out of 10 because there's definitely some concern, but I have bigger worry for other teams. And a big reason why it might be that the Eastern Conference is not that amazing. Even the teams in playoff spots, I think when you look at it, you look at a team like, say the capitals, right?

They're surging. They're wonderful. great. Everybody loves them of the surprise of the season. If you have a playoff matchup tomorrow of the of the Panthers and the Capitals, who are you taking? It's probably the Panthers because of their roster strength alone and they know how to turn it on when the playoffs start. So you have that there, right? And you have elite talent there. You have Kachuk and Reinhardt, who's having a great season and Barkoff and all of that's great and wonderful. But I think that there's a couple fundamental flaws on their roster. And I think that there are just a couple concerning trends that I would

imagine they're going to address. And two really big things stand out to me. One is the goaltending. And you don't need to be perfect if you're a Florida Panthers goaltender. You are in a very good position to succeed because they're so stout defensively on most nights that you just need to put up average results and you'll be fine. And I don't think they're getting that consistently from Bobrovsky or Spencer Knight, especially over the last like month plus of action. So that is a fixable thing, I think is just getting the goalies back on track. But it's it's something to have on their radar. And the other part is, I would like to see a little bit more offensive pop from this team. I think they're great with screenshots, right? And they're getting a ton of

offense from the point. But I don't think they're getting enough from the dangerous areas, and that falls on the forwards. But I also think you're seeing how much they're missing having a little bit more offense from the blue line. And they took swings in free agency and tried to go for those reclamation projects, which totally worked for them last year. But I think they're missing Montor a lot more because I don't think someone like Adam Boakwis stepped up in the way I think of a lot of us probably anticipated. So I think if they had a little bit more buzz from that back end, I think it would have a better trickle-down effect,

especially on like lines two and three, we're not going to get as many minutes with the top pair. Definitely. Over the past month, there's 7-7 and 1 with a minus 7 goal differential. That's 15 games worth of data now in that stretch. And part of why I'm not concerned, but this tie is exactly into the point you just made,

is that they're a league where it's 32nd in shooting percentage. They're shooting 5.5% at 5-15, which is just downright ghastly. Now, I think everyone knows about this stretch Sam Bennett is on, right? Ever since he got named to Team Canada at the Four Nations, he's played 17 games, he's got zero goals and four assists.

I think in watching a couple of these games, the game over the weekend against the Bruins where they actually did have a dominant possession performance at least, but just weren't able to score enough. And Bobrovsky gave up four goals on, I believe, 18 shots against. Only for Hagee had a ton of looks

and he just wasn't able to capitalize. And he's actually been someone that I've been monitoring closely here because he's going on this stretch now where he's taken 104 shot attempts in the past 15 games or so and he's scored just twice and he's on pace for 19 goals this year after 42 and 34 in the previous two seasons and like most goal scorers he's pretty streaky I would imagine he's going to rip off a stretch where he scores like seven goals and five games or something here and come to postseason I wouldn't be worried about that at all but in watching these games and the past two were a perfect example of this

I actually think like he's been one of the weaklings for them offensively where whether it's bad luck or whether it's just not executing offensively, the puck is dying on his stick a lot and they're getting a lot of opportunities. He's just not scoring on them at all. Yeah. And I kind of like the decision to take him off that first line because of it. Because I think when you're on the first line, there's obviously a lot of pressure to perform and to play up to the level of Barkoff and Reinhart.

And, you know, when you're playing with them, I think you have that luxury of Sam Reinhart being a really great finisher and shooting at, you know, what is it, 23% this year again, which who would have seen that one coming? But when you're on the third line, I feel like he can be a little bit more of the guy, and maybe that'll help him. And also, it doesn't suck to have someone who can actually finish the chances that Barkoff is going to set you up for. So I don't mind it for, like, line up balance purposes and to get him back on track

because I think, you know, there's an opportunity for him to kind of emerge as the difference maker on the third line and get his jump back because sometimes it's just a matter of confidence at that point. Obviously, we're people who look at the data and everything like that, but vibes matter and confidence matters. And sometimes when you just can't finish your chances, it's going to weigh on you. So I wonder if he can get going and then, you know, you have different options to move around the lineup from there.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see him get other looks in that top six again. You know, he's played with Chuck and Bennett for like ever. But it's not a bad thing to try to get this team to have different looks up front. Yeah. Actually, I think the forward group is going to be fine. I know it's kind of counterintuitive to what we just said about the inefficiency offensively and the lack of scoring, the shooting percentage. But I like what I've seen from Mackie Samiskevich, even in that game against the

Flyers. He creates this beautiful look off the rush. Unfortunately, he's playing on the fourth line right now. His limits are suppressed and it goes to A.J. Greer, and he doesn't finish it. I like the idea of kind of keeping the door open, at least, for him to take on a bigger roll down the stretch because he actually has a bit of offensive juice. So I think the forward group is fine beyond like fourth line tinkering or whatever. What I am curious to see is what Bill Zito and company do with the blue line

because this stretch here in the new year has highlighted what might be a potential concern for them and it shouldn't be surprising after they lose Brandon Montreur and Oliver Ekman-Larsen in the off season. But Nico Mikhaila misses a couple games in the new year. Arad has missed the past couple. And in just watching these games, it feels like there's just way too much Dmitri Kulikov and Nate Schmidt involved in all of this. It's partly by necessity with Ekblad out.

Gulikov's playing on the top player with Gus Forsling, Schmidt's playing on the second pair with Nico Mikola. But it feels like both those guys are being just asked to do too much and being stretched too thin. And the Panthers, like many other teams in the league, pretty much any of contender other than maybe Vegas, need some blue line help and is going to try to add someone at the deadline. But I'm curious to see how ambitious and aggressive they are in adding

because I think beyond just your conventional deadline ad of like a stay-at-home penalty-killing shop-blocking defensemen, I think they actually need to add someone with some puck moving ability and some ability to potentially play legitimate minutes for them so that guys like Kulikov and Schmidt aren't being asked to play in these big roles in a pinch. It's a system that we praise all the time for being able to plug and play defensemen who can skate and have good offensive instincts because their responsibilities are so simple.

It's just skate forward, get the buck to your forwards, consistently pinch, and it's a great spot to be in. But I think they actually need to add someone here between now and the deadline who can actually do a. a bit more and the list of guys available is pretty thin. But I would say that's my number one sort of pressing need for this team right now, way beyond any forward ads. Yeah, absolutely.

Because I think if you add someone to elevate their blue line offensively, it's going to help the forward group. And it's going to put everybody else in a better position to succeed. And I think the beauty of the Panthers last season was they knew how to manage everyone's minutes adequately. You know, you had Kulikov and Oliver Ekman-Larsson playing. And obviously in the early goings of the season, and those guys had to play more because they were without Montor and Eckblood.

But they knew how to manage them when it mattered the most, right? And you look at the Montor pairing last year, like, that was that pair was maximized to play those offensive opportunities so Montor could just kind of freewheel from the back end. That's what made him so special. And it's tough for the Panthers here because when Eckblatt's healthy, like, that is not your most offensively inclined number one defenseman around the league anyway, right? And even if you say, well, Forsling is overtaking him for that role. Forzling's an elite shut down defenseman.

And yes, he has some offensive upside, but he is, again, it doesn't stack up to some of the best in the league. And not everybody needs a Quinn Hughes or Camel car to thrive, but you want to have something a little bit more reliable, especially if your number one defenseman doesn't have like that kind of juice up in his game. Like you need someone behind him who can bring it. Just to add a little bit more dimension and variety. And I think that'll just slot everyone else a little bit more appropriately. It's kind of funny, though, talking about this. You see now John Klingberg is mounting a comeback.

And it's funny because for a second, I was like, could the Panthers kind of throw a flyer at him? Because that's been the name of their game. Go for these reclamation projects. Nate Schmidt is a prime example of it. Oliver Ekman-Larsen was that last year. Same with Kulikov. And I don't hate that they're not going for it because I think that one has a lot of risk. You have no idea what this game's going to look like now that he's coming back from hip surgery.

But I am wondering if they think that there's a different move that they could make on a budget, I'm sure, to give this team what they're missing. Yeah. I thought that Eric Brandstrom hitting waivers would have been a very obvious claim for them, but it seems like teams around the league have sort of telegraphed that they're not as high on them as maybe we are. Jake Wallman, I'm not sure if, you know, he's played such a big role in San Joseon has played so well since they basically took that reclamation project on him. This offseason that deal they made with the Red Wings, I'm not sure if Mike Greer would have a lot of appetite for moving him because he's still relatively young and is playing a valuable role on that team as they're on their way up. but he'd be such a perfect fit on this Panthers team. I'd love to see them kind of go into that type of ambitious direction.

But we'll see. I think there's certainly some options and some interesting things they could do. And as I said, it's a great spot for any defensemen to step into and play in. I'm curious for your take on this then. I was thinking about it. And I'm willing to give a team like the Panthers more benefit of the doubt and leniency here because over the past two years, they've proven to us what their game looks like. and they've played so many high leverage games

in their back-to-back runs to the Stanley Cup final, that it makes sense that kind of mid-season here around December, January, there'd be some mid-season doldrums for them, right? From like a pure motivation perspective, maybe they're not playing their A game in a random Monday night game in Philadelphia, for example. If it continues later on into the season,

then I think we should be a bit more alarmed. But they do have eight guys, I believe, that are going to be playing for their respective countries at the four nations, and it feels like that's going to be a nice reset point in the calendar for a team like the Panthers, where we know the players are going to care a lot for those games that will probably reignite them, and then they're going to come back and be ramping up down the stretch for the Panthers. So we'll see. I'm not sure what that tournament's going to look like. I don't think any of us know, but it feels like that would probably, if you're trying to

spin a narrative about motivation and a team kind of biding its time through the regular season, it makes sense that the Panthers would be a team that might benefit from that. Obviously, aren't going to get time off. They're actually going to be playing games in quite a few minutes for some of those top players. But I'm curious to see whether they're able to use that as a bit of a launching pad to get back to the level we expect from them. Yeah. To go back to your point about Jake Walman, yes, 10 out of 10 agree. That would be the perfect target, but I don't know if he'll be available. And I think the biggest problem is you look around the Eastern Conference right now, and we don't know who's going to be a true seller. Like you could think this team might follow

the process and continue on rebuilding, retooling, and sell what they need to do similar to the flyers last year. But since that wildcard race is so wide open, it's going to be really interesting because I don't think we know the extent of like who will truly be available. But yeah, the Four Nations is a good opportunity. It's such a weird one because we really don't know how this is going to go. You know, like we wouldn't even fully know, oh, how's the World Cup of hockey going to go in today's game? Because we haven't seen it since 2016. And this is even less competitive and it's shorter and it's totally different. But, you know, if everyone's just getting pumped up for the Olympics, maybe it raises that competitive level to what I think most people would want to see this

as. And that's a good thing because when you're a Stanley Cup contender and you come in as one of the favorites this year, it must be hard to play these games. Like you said, a Monday night game against the Flyers. You're like, okay, whatever. It's January. We'll be fine. We just need to preserve ourselves for the postseason. And it's easier to get complacent when you look at the rest of the league around you, right? Like, everybody sucks in the East. It's not like, oh my God, there's so many competitive teams right now and everyone's vying for the same spots. It's like everyone kind of sucks right now. So, you know, I feel like it's easier to get complacent with that in mind.

So if this can get the competitive juices going and get the guys ready, you know, if you lose out on that tournament, because I'm sure everybody wants to win on any day of the week, you know, maybe that gets you going and gets you a little bit more fired up. Or if you win, you're like, okay, that was a taste. Now I want the Stanley Cup again. So it's going to be interesting because it's not like this is some young team getting complacent. it's a veteran group and it's going to be, you know, the onus falls on the players to get themselves up for these bigger games as we get

into February and March and April. And it's on the coaching stuff as well. Like, how do you manage that? Because with Paul Marisa, I kind of think of those Winnipeg years and I think of complacency for some of it. And I feel like he's been a totally different coach in Florida. So it'll be interesting to see him navigate this as well. Yeah, I'm sure Bill Zito and Paul Marisse would probably prefer that Sasha Barcov and

Gus Forsland get 10 days off to recharge their bodies as opposed to play. these games, but I do think in terms of getting everyone going into the mindset they need to be in when they're at their best is probably would be more conducive to that. I think the reason why this matters, and ultimately for the Panthers, they're a type of team that I think can go into any building and win, and it's not that big of a deal, although I think in a playoff setting, especially as you get later on into the postseason and the competition gets tougher, the value of home ice for them is pretty large because it allows you to get Barakov and Forsing out there against the other team's best players,

and that's a huge edge for them from a matchup perspective. But the reason why this kind of stretch of mediocrity matters for me is it's dropped them to three points back of the Leafs for first in the Atlantic, and now there are only four points up on Tampa Bay, who has three games in hand on them. And so I think you talk about how the East, no one's really separating themselves. For those teams,

I do think it actually kind of matters because the value of getting out of that matchup and playing a wildguard team, even though there's some frisky teams that are competing for the wild card in the east is probably pretty high, especially if you're the least, for example, not having to play Tampa again or Florida in round one and getting to play a younger, more inexperienced team,

whereas for Florida actually winning the division and getting home ice would probably be pretty valuable. So that's why I'm kind of curious to see how those three teams in particular shake out over these final 35 to 40 games, because I do think in terms of setting yourself up for postseason success, it probably does matter a bit more than you'd otherwise think. Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, if you're the Panthers, you could look at it and say, well, we won the Battle of Florida last year, pretty handedly.

And you'd be right, but it's like that was last year. This is this year. And Tampa Bay is a team that would definitely worry me. I know they haven't been perfect over this last stretch around the season as a whole. I know their bottom six is very, very, very thin. But I think that when they get a little bit healthier and they're at full strength, and I'm very curious what this team does at the deadline as well. Like, they are a team to watch.

So if you can get yourself out of that matchup or just have a lot. home ice, it's going to be really important when you have shut down players like Forzing and Barcoff, like those matchups matter. Yes, you can play them against anyone and you'll be fine, but you want it that you are setting them up if you're, you know, Florida against Nikita Kutrov in round one or against David Pashenock in round one or whoever you might match up against. And it's a huge part of it too, because even you go to last night's game and I know we're going to get there with the Kings and Oilers, like those matchup minutes were massive for the Oilers to control last night so they could keep their top players away from Onzicopatar. Like, it all is going to be important.

Especially last postseason in both those first second round matchups, Gus Forsling had so much success against Kuturav in round one and then pass track in round two. And that just neutralized those respective teams' offenses so much. So I think that's such a massive point to make here. The Reinhardt is really the kind of lingering silver lining here for the Panthers, even in that game on Monday night where nothing was really going for them. They weren't generating much offensively.

He scores two goals. He's up to 27 and 44, which is only behind dry sighto. He's got nine on the power play, five on the PK. He's just such a beast. and he keeps clicking, but they need more from some of the other guys around him. You want to talk quickly about the flyer side of things here because they are firmly in that mix now after a couple of good wins at home against the ducks and the Panthers here. They're in that wildcard mix as well amongst with pretty much every other team in the Eastern Conference.

They're fascinating to me because we're going on a 19 game stretch here since December 1st, where their 5-1-5 metrics are off the charts again, similar to a lot of last year. their top five in shot share, expected goals share, high danger chances. Yet some of the issues that plagued them last season have kind of carried over again. The power play is only 27 in the league in goals per hour. Save percentage is dead last yet again. And it's a team that doesn't even give up a lot of slot shots or high danger looks. And yet just cannot get a save.

The fact that their sub 870 for the year is pretty staggering. Yet they're very competitive. The 515 profile is very strong. And it's much stronger than a lot of the teams they're competing with for that wildcard spot. So I'm curious for your take on the flyers right now and kind of what we're seeing from them because we've certainly seen highs and lows. But some of these recent performances are at least encouraging that this is a team that's at least going to be someone to monitor, I guess, down the stretch. Yeah, it's going to be really interesting.

Because like last year we looked at them and they were the surprise team at five on five. They were great off the rush. Like it was everything you didn't expect. You expect a John Tortoella team with Bradshaw. You expect them to be stout defensively, disruptive on the pest, penalty kill and you think John Torrell, you think that shot blocking identity and working really hard. And that's great and wonderful, right? But you weren't expecting them to be as good offensively as they were. And obviously, they took themselves out of the playoff race because they sold it

the deadline. If they were to make the playoffs, so be it, but they were just following along with the process that they have planned in the long-term vision. Do you do that again this year? I don't know the answer, especially if you can keep up this level of five-on-five play. There's work to do again, but they're really good on both ends of the ice of five-term. on five over this last stretch. The penalty kill is really, really, really good again. They limit a lot of dangerous chances against and have that power killing identity. But if, you know, if we'll see how it really depends how everything else is going to work out in the East, I'm sure. That's part of the conversation. But I could see it being a little bit

discouraging if you continue to sell. Even if it's for the long-term goals, it might be hard for the players to withstand that for a second straight year. And you look at it, it's not like they have a ton of pending UFAs to sell. I think the only one for next year is Eric Johnson, which so be it, right? But you wonder if they're going to move someone like Scott Lawton because teams spend a ton for centers and they might want those two playoff years for him.

And that's going to make it really interesting too. Like if they take that route, they could go as simply as say, we're not going to buy, we're not going to sell, and we're just going to let it ride. Because I think if they're going to have a true playoff chance, they need more reliable goaltending than they have. but I would understand why they don't buy right now either,

especially because the contracts, like, do you really want to add a fourth goalie contract into the mix right now? Probably not. So it's, they're in such an interesting position because I feel like they're better than just your average rebuilding team. And maybe it's because we've seen so many rebuilding teams fail so brilliantly in recent years.

But, you know, you don't want to take the wind out of their sales if they're progressing this much again. But then again, it is a learning experience. Maybe you do that and you really position yourself to be a dangerous team next season. Well, they have a fascinating upcoming schedule the rest of January too. They have eight games. Three of them, unfortunately, are against the devil's team that's incredibly difficult to play against. And they play two against the Islanders, who they are competing directly with for the wildcard, one against the Rangers, and then one against Troy and one against Columbus.

So in terms of that wildcard positioning, there's going to be a lot of very important battles ahead there. But I do think with this team, and I think this is an important point to make for the rest of the league as a whole, like, There was a period of time where we cared almost entirely, just purely about the 5-1-5 metrics because that was such an important indicator or kind of litmus test for how good a team was. And it still is. Like you want to have the puck more. And I think a lot of this stuff generally leads to success, especially over a long period of time. But we're getting to a point where finishing ability at both ends of the ice is so incredibly

valuable and is ultimately the biggest decider. And so for a team that's not really finishing very well, especially on the power play, and then isn't getting saves a one under the ice, it feels like maybe we shouldn't expect that to be something that just magically fixes itself. So we'll see what happens there. Let's quickly talk about the second game on that slate,

Flames Blackhawks here before we go to break. I know that for our U.S. listeners, it's a big point of contention because it's slaughtered. The Amazon Prime games here in Canada on Monday night or slaughter our NHL network. A lot of people don't get to watch them, unfortunately, and I don't have too many thoughts

on the Blackhawks because their season and just continues the way it's been. But from a flames perspective, I thought, as they're competing here with the Canucks for that last spot in the West and the wildcard, it was a very important game for them to go in and take care of business on the road. Like they jumped on the Blackhawks immediately, scored five goals and won decisively. With Dustin Wolfenet, they're currently performing at a 114 point pace percentage, which I keep referencing, like when Dustin Wolfson,

that they're just winning all their games. and it's a very important and fun developing story. I didn't want to quickly talk about Matt Coronado, though, because he scored a really cool goal here where he makes a couple nice plays in the neutral zone, gets the puck in, give and go, finishes in front of the net. And I was worried about what this team's offense would look like after Connor Zeri's injury,

but they've put Coronado back with Backland and Coleman. They were playing together early in the year. That line has been so good at 515, and Coronado has been a really, you know, fun and cool young player that's developed. developed for this flames team. And so they're driving a lot of their offense. And I just wanted to shout out Matt Coronado in that line as a whole because we've

loved Coleman and Backland here for a long time. But Coronado's been such a nice fit on that line. And the flames just keep winning games despite the fact that everyone keeps just waiting for them to fall off. Yeah, they've been really fun. And it shows, you know, like you can't count any team out. And even if you're going along with the retool, like they are, like, there can still be some good along the way.

And I think the good is seeing all of these up-and-coming players emerge into difference makers, right? I think that's huge for them. That line with Coronado, Backland, and Coleman itself is so much fun because on a playoff team, on like a true contender, that is your ideal third line, I would say. You have a shutdown center in Backland who you could throw out in any matchup. And, you know, he's not completely devoid of offense. He's not some great score, but he's like a solid playmaker. And I think that's enough to push the pace of play. Blake Coleman is everything and more.

He is, to me, like your ideal utility player. When people go, we need to add a good forward at the deadline to be a good playoff team. He is the model of it. I know it's funny because it's always like, it was Barkley-Drome, Blake Coleman, and they played on this amazing grind line for Tampa Bay. And we all still reference it for a reason because they were so damn good. But, you know, you see, like, Hegel is that younger version of it.

And it's because they can help drive play and shut down things defensively. and I think that's so great to have. Like, he's a volume shooter. He's a great forward checker. He can play anywhere you need him to. He's very versatile. Like, that is your ideal utility player. And then you have Coronado, who's up-and-coming four-checker, too.

Like, they make life difficult for the opponents. They're not incredible off the rush, but they can chip and chase the puck and beat some of the, you know, their opponent's best options. And they're generating offense along the way. It's a really good line to have. And I think Calgary is figuring something out with that top line, too. so to have them producing right behind them. It's a good thing to have. And it's giving their goaltender,

Dustin Wolf, who's been just excellent goal support, which is so important, right? Even if you don't view yourself as a contender, you want to play competitive games, you want to be in games till the end, and you don't want some discouraging style off the bat for Wolf where he's playing in no man's land with no support at all. So I think it's a good thing for everyone.

250 minutes of 5-15 for those three. They've only given up five goals against 55% of the shots and expected goals. been phenomenal and this flames team remains fun to watch and is not going away anytime soon. All right, Shane, let's take our break here and then we come back, we'll jump right back into it and we're going to talk Kings Oilers

right up the hob when we come back. You're listening to the Hockey-Pedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. Hey, it's Big Nazar. Have your say and join me on the People's Show with big takes and even bigger bets, weekdays three to four on SportsNet 650 or

wherever you get your podcast. All right, we're back here in the Hockey PEOCast joined by Shana Goldman. Shaneal, let's talk Kings Oilers because I thought it was a fascinating game, obviously a matchup with these two teams playing that we've seen a bunch in the past, the past three post seasons. It looks like we're headed towards a potential fourth one again, this upcoming postseason. I'd be curious for your take on what the differences between that could look like whether you're excited about it.

I thought in watching this game, the reason why I was so captivated by it, even though it was low scoring, it winds up being a one-nothing win for the Oilers at home, was it was very competitive. We saw a lot of intricacies back and forth between these two teams. And unfortunately for me, it once again reinforced a lot of the concerning things for the Kings in terms of their ability to get past a team that's built like the Oilers in a best of seven playoff series. What do you kind of see from this game? And you can take it in a number of directions because I've got so many notes on this particular matchup.

Okay. So normally I'm someone who either wants to see like the highest scoring game in the world. Like give me like seven, six total chaos or I want a goalie duel for the ages. One team has 40 shots. One has 45 shots. Like let's go the entire time. Low shooting games generally aren't as exciting for me as much as I love defense. And this one still brought it for me. Like I saw some people saying it was a boring game and I totally disagree. It had a playoffy vibe. And it brought. what I was hoping it would. Like, this is a matchup I see on the schedule and like I am getting up for, or I'm staying up for, I guess. But it, I liked it last night. Like, to me, I watched it and I thought, I will take another playoff series. Please.

I agree with you. There are definitely some issues for the Kings that I worry about, especially, like, if they don't have home ice. How will they figure it out? Because last night you saw Drysidal was primarily matched up to Quentin Byfield in one of those matchups, and then you had Connor McDavid going up against Philip Deneau. They kept their two stars away from Anzikopatar, who somehow, drinking out of the fountain of youth, is still a sulky caliber player. And he was primarily matched up against the Henrique line and was very good, unsurprisingly. So that's going to be an issue for the Kings, right?

If they get into the series and the Oilers have home ice advantage, it's going to create matchup problems. And you don't need anything stacked against you because you're already going into the series without two-generational. offensive players or two elite offensive players, however you want to categorize them as maybe one-in-one, I guess would be fair. Elite very dry-siddle and generational for McDavid, I don't want to throw that word around too often. But, you know, the kings don't have that. And yes, they have some really good defensive talent to shut that down. And they're going to have reinforcements when Drew Dowdy is back. And I, and that's going to happen in the near future. And I think that'll help kind of reset their defense into better roles for their skill sets. But and maybe they'll be able to have two shut down pairs because Gavikov and Mike Anderson, I think, are giving. are giving the king's enough reason to leave them as their shutdown pair even and then throw Dowdy into another combination. Like, who knows what they'll go with? But is that enough? Because if you're playing a team like the Oilers, you can try to contain them and slow them

down all you want, right? Like that's what you have to do. You have to contain and slow down. Connor McAiddle. You're probably not stopping both of them, especially not in a playoff environment, but you can do your best to stop them from being the best versions of themselves. But in that, you also have to find a way to push back against them, right? Because the oilers.

are a great offensive team. And now they're becoming a really good defensive team. They're really good on the penalty kill. But their biggest weakness probably is instability in that and inconsistency in that because you might get a version of Stewart Skinner who is lights out, standup goal tending, like that is what you need. But you might not get that. And their backup Calvin Card, like you're not, you're not getting incredible hockey

from Picker that you're like, yes, this is some, you know, like this is what's going to stop a team from winning. So I would say you have to find a way to push back against them and generate more offense if you're going to hold a candle to them, really. Yeah, this game was so interesting to me because you could see it real time. The Kings kind of trying to switch gears and poke and probe and try to figure out how to get a leg up on the Oilers and how to figure out this puzzle that's kind of found. I know they beat them before the holiday break at home in an overtime game,

but still in Edmonton when Edmonton has the matchups is trying to figure this out. the second period, you mentioned how it wasn't necessarily that high event in total. In the second period, it did open up a little bit. You could see the Kings almost embracing, all right, it's zero, zero, we got to try to get some offense. We're going to just go north, south with this team and trade chances. You saw them exchange, rush opportunities. And, you know, in the King's credit, they did get a few themselves. Kempe had a nice cross-ice one where Stewart Skinner was able to, and this is one of his weaknesses generally, but he was able to get across and make a highlight real save. Quentin Bivield comes down and ring.

the iron so they got a few looks but yet that entire time I just kept feeling like it was a perilous spot for them to be in because this isn't necessarily how they want to play especially against a team like the oilers it was partly by necessity and it's a regular season game so they can try stuff out but it felt like the inevitable was going to happen and then it eventually does at four on four the only difference in this game is the dry sidle plays for the oilers and not the kings and he's able to essentially he puts Trevor Moore in the torture chamber does not let him out embarrasses him a couple times and sets up a goal and that's the difference. But in this game, the Kings actually kind of, in my opinion, you mentioned the Kopitar matchup and they probably do want to have them out there,

especially against Dreisaito because he can kind of handle his size and positioning a little bit better. But I think they got a lot of the matchups they would want theoretically, right? We saw a lot of Mikey Anderson and Gavrokov against McDavid. They were out there for like 13 and a half of McDavid's 18, 5 on 5 minutes. Dino was out there for a good chunk of it. We saw Hillard make an interesting switch where he put Trevor Lewis for a more defensively oriented role with De No and Trevor Moore and then he bumped up Fiala to the top line with Campa and Copaacar which they rarely do and those guys were able to create a lot of or a good amount of offense I guess for the Kings relatively and so that was an interesting thing that they don't typically do but the issue that was exposed

for me in this is that while dry Cytle is healthy and playing at the five on five level he has this season they just don't really have an answer for them as currently constituted when they do that. And this isn't a knock against Biviel because I thought he was skating really well. He had that chance I mentioned. He fumbled the bug a couple of times, but he was moving quite well. Fogel got a few looks of his own. That line has been good for them this season. But if you're going to go that primarily with Mikey Anderson and Gavikov against McDavid, that's going to leave a lot of minutes, especially with Dowdy out, and this might be a different circumstance in the postseason. But for now, a lot of Brian Clark and a lot of Jordan Spence,

minutes against Dreisaitle and he's able to essentially bully them and create a bunch. And so what we saw in this game was, I think Chris and Albaugh acknowledged that he didn't really play Dreisdell and McDavid at all at 5-15. Part of that was dictated by score because they didn't really need to push that much for offense, but they played only 1.5 minutes together at 5-1-5. And so Edmonton gets 16 shots on goal in Leon Dreitle's 18 minutes, and they really win those minutes quite decisively in terms of territorial battle and looks. and so if the Oilers are going to be able to actually be disciplined about keeping those guys apart

and Dry Seidel playing this well allows them to do so, if they do that, a team like the Kings can load up on McDavid and do pretty well in those minutes, relatively speaking, and it doesn't wind up mattering because all of a sudden, on the backdoor, you're left with Dreisaito in very favorable matchups that he's able to win. And so I think that's what I say, when I say highlighted issues for me, I think that's what we saw last night. Yeah, dry saddle's not playing on another level this year,

because like we think of him as an elite goal score, right? He scores from that sharp angle better than anyone from the dry sidle. Like that that's his move. His playmaking this year is outstanding. His puck battling this year is outstanding. His shutdown defense is really impressive, especially when you think of those earlier years, when that was the one element missing from his game.

He is playing at a heart caliber level this year. If you didn't care about penalty killing in the Salky conversation, like I know I personally do, You might have him on your ballot. He's been that good. And that line, that's three disruptive players now playing together. And if you can keep him separated from McDavid, it's a nightmare for anybody to match up to because you can put your best players on McDavid and you're going to be left exposed.

And I think one of the trickiest things is if, like, you're playing McDavid and Drysettle, there's a good chance you're playing on your heels and you're trying to play defense against them the whole time instead of offense. You probably are more inclined to take penalties when you're trailing. and when you're trying to defend, and that's really tough. That's why I think Kopitar is the ideal player to go up against in those matchups, because he plays such a stout defensive game in such a disciplined way. Not everybody can do that.

So that's one hurdle right there. The other part of it, like you mentioned, is Fiala jumping up in the play and getting tossed into that top line to try to load it up. Your weapon to load up your top line, and I am trying to make this as favorable as I can for him, but if you go down by forwards, let's say you limit it down to 500 all situation minutes and you take out defensemen to try to help the ranking. His 1.81 points per 60 still ranks 180th in the league.

That is just ahead of guys like Andrew Kopp, Jeff Skinner. That's a third line player for Edmonton. Philip Dono, like those are not the players you want to be in contention with. Even guys like Ryan Nugent Hopkins are, you know, ranked below him. but at least we see New Jersey Hopkins come alive after a pretty awful start by not just his standards, but like any top six player. Kevin Fiala just hasn't played up to the level I think the Kings need, and that really hurts them because they could use just one really strong, pure offensive weapon that you could say,

that's our elite star offensively. Yes, you have two shutdown centers. Yes, you have a really good player in Quentin Byfield and you have scoring depth. Like if you want to go third line to third line from Oilers to Kings, you're going to have a conversation, but they don't have what it takes to stack up to not just the Oilers, but say a team like the abs with that high-end talent and you're going to run into issues because of that. So that's the big weakness.

And I don't know how much they can address in season. And I don't know how much they can honestly address saying, we're going to make more tactical adjustments and try to focus on offense while not trying to degrade the defense. That's so good, right? Like they're incredible against rush chances. They're one of the best teams and expect. to goals against and in shots against. They're doing all of that and more.

It just feels like that's something that might have to come from outside the roster at this point. Yeah, it's tough because I'm with you. Like, in theory, if you're going to use the no with that top defense bear against McDavid and you're going to at home, at least use Kempe against Reisaitel and just try to play even or as best as your capabilities as you can in those minutes, then you're going to need byfield and Fogel essentially to carry the heavy burden offensively and outscore the oilers bottom six pretty handily.

And so I think what Jim Hiller acknowledged in this game was like, all right, we need to get Fiala going. Kempay is our best offensive player. Let's just try to put those guys together. They're playing against a Henry Klein, and that's probably our best avenue for offense, and they weren't able to get that in this game. And that's the other issue this game highlighted for me or reinforced was when L.A. is down, it's just going to be so difficult for them to generate offense to come back. We saw in that third period, the Oilers were kind of like defending the lead and sitting back. They didn't park the bus, but they were much more disciplined in terms of just staying back, keeping guys back, loading up the blue line and forcing the Kings to break them down step by step.

And the Kings don't really have a lot of problem solvers in those situations. A lot of one and done's, very little sustained time. A lot of the shots they were getting were kind of from the outside. And it was a relatively pedestrian 30 shot performance that Stewart Skinner made a few big saves on, but for the most part was able to just make very routine saves. And so that's going to be very difficult for the King. to overcome unless there's a dramatic shift in either personnel or playing style. Now, we talked about the jockeying for position atop the Atlantic.

If you look at the Pacific right now, the Golden Knights have 61 points in 43 games. The Oilers are all the way up to 57 and 43 now, so they're on their heels. And then the Kings are at 53 in 41 games. If the Oilers are able to catch the Golden Knights and win the Pacific Division, I think all of a sudden it becomes much more doable for the Kings in a row-all matchup against the Golden Knights. I know the Golden Knights pose their own set of problems, but for a King's team, it's probably easier to match up against them because you can just load up a bit more defensively on the Ico line offensively and slow them down and have a chance to win. And then

stylistically, the Kings can just sit back and play their defensive game a little bit more and frustrate the Golden Knights because we see that the Golden Knights are at their most dangerous when other teams are rushing and then they can counter off of that. And if the Kings don't give them a lot of those easy looks, that's actually a pretty winnable series for them. in my opinion. So I'm very fascinated to see how that top three in the Pacific plays out because it looks like at least now we're headed towards Kings Oilers. And I remain steadfast in my opinion that the Oilers would win that series again. But if the Oilers are actually able to outplay the Golden Knights the rest of the way, then all of a sudden the Kings could be the beneficiary of that.

Yeah. It'll be really interesting to see how that goes in a playoff series because it's great to have Adrian Kempay for the Kings. But ideally, in a perfect world, he's probably your number two offensive forward. And obviously not everyone's going to be as lucky to have Leon Drysodas their number two offensive forward. Or, I mean, they're so neck and neck, Drysendal and McDavid this year. So it's, you can't even choose a one and two. But, you know, that's a one-two punch that few teams can stack up to.

And I don't think the Kings have to match that necessarily to win a series against them. But they need to have something a little bit closer unless they have the perfect balance scoring through their lineup, best up than the league. Because we've seen the Star Power versus Dept up. in the postseason before we saw it in Seattle and Colorado, right? Like, there's a way to make that work for you, but I don't think they're at that point either. I wonder how much they're going to use this game,

and I know they won their last matchup, and I know that they have Drew Doughty coming back and they have reinforcements, but as a measuring stick for where they stand, because you can't let one team dictate the rest of your decisions. But, and like you said, like they are a much better matchup against Vegas. But if you beat Vegas, there's still a very good chance. You would have to go through Edmonton.

And that's how you have to view it to an extent, right? Like, that is what you have to get past. You have to measure up against the team that not just has taken you out three straight years, but went to the Stanley Cup final last year. Like, they, for a reason, are one of the teams to beat in the West. So you have to find a way to get past them and use those games as a measuring stick to see what you are missing, what you need to have, and maybe what you already do have.

So it's a good thing to have these matchups now. It's better to know now versus, you know, April 1st, when you can't do anything about it, except just endure what the round one matchup has to offer. But I'm definitely curious because as much as they could say, well, we just hope to not have them in round one. Like,

that's not sufficient. Yeah, I thought it was a fascinating tactical game. It was really fun to watch. Okay, let's end with this. I want to talk a little bit about coaching changes around the league and just the general philosophy,

but behind teams making moves in season, how frequently you're seeing it. I know you wrote about this recently at the athletic. We've seen, by my count, 16 coaching changes. since last season. You can add five more that happened in that previous offseason. So that means there's been only 11 coaches currently who are coaching their team at the end of the 22, 23 season,

which is remarkable in a 32 team league. Bruce Cassidy is the seventh longest tenured coach. And he's been with Vegas for about 200 regular season games so far. I'm curious for your take on kind of, I guess the explanation for this, the cause and effect, kind of whether it's the right way to go about it, whether it's a necessary reality, because we're seeing teams quite frequently when things are going south,

especially in this sort of game 25 to 40 window, pull the plug, make a change. And we generally see, as we've seen in with Detroit, as a firsthand example, that immediate coaching balance where a guy comes in and doesn't even necessarily change anything that dramatically, just has a new message, motivates the players,

maybe tinkers a little bit on the edges, and all of a sudden, the team just dramatically improves their performance. performance. Yeah, coaching is so interesting in the NHL, and I think it's something that we all need to learn a lot more about. But it was something like I tried to dig back on, I think it was as of December 31st, you know, you look through it and the average coaching tenure in the NHL is down because there were multiple changes. But if you go back to the beginning of the year, which was what I used as the measuring stick. And it's not perfect because that doesn't account for midseason changes or interim coaches who come in and are gone by the end of the next season up at the beginning of the next season.

Like there isn't a perfect, perfect, perfect way to measure this. But going into this year, it was 2.25 years was the average tenure. And it feels really low. And it is when you look back to say, I went to the last lockout where it was 3.25 years, which also lined up with the start of John Cooper's tenure because there you have your longest tenured coach. But it's not even necessarily the shortest tenure we've seen over that span of time. It's really dropped some years.

It's less than 2.1 years as the average tenure across all 32 teams are in some seasons, 30 teams and 31 in those years. but you know in the NHL I don't think we I don't think we fully understand the impact of assistant coaches as well as maybe we should I don't think that we get enough information on I think in other sports maybe football you can see you know the impact of a defensive coordinator a little bit more and learn their signatures the NHL is tough because sometimes it feels like it's the same say 36 guys rotating around 32 teams so maybe that motivates general managers to change them up a little bit more It could be the fact that general managers, their seats aren't nearly as hot as coaches.

So when you don't know what to do, you change your coach. I feel like that was the case for Boston this year. While I don't think Jim Montgomery was the right coach for the Bruins and, you know, there was definitely reason to move on from him. It was a way to mask all the problems that Don's we need created for his roster, right? So it's always interesting to see the new coach bump and the long term of it because you see a lot of different guys struggling at different points. And, you know, for Detroit, it seems like that group just needed a different voice and a spark,

which is exactly what they've gotten. And there haven't been a ton of tactical changes. I know on the penalty kill there have been, which, oh, my God, did they need them? Yeah. But you're just seeing a new voice try to work with the same group. And I think that's going to allow you to then measure the strength of the roster and go, well, what do you need from here? Because it clearly wasn't clicking before that.

And now you can find the true strengths and weaknesses of this group under two different. voices. So that is going to be one way, I guess, to measure coaching strength because there's only so much you're going to change in a year on the one hand. But on the other hand, as some players will say, like, there's only so many tactics and schemes in hockey. Like, you know them and you should be able to apply them. It's just taking the time to practice and figure them out. But I definitely am curious if we're ever going to, like, learn a little bit more about coaching impacts. And I'm sure we will as time goes on because there aren't too many coaches with these huge long 10 years to go off of like you said cassidy's a seventh longest 10 yeared coach i think

marty st louis is around five right now which is absolutely mind-blowing but um it's it's one way for a team to make a change right and sometimes it's because of a streak of bad goaltending that a coach falls on that sword but general managers that's it's just what they do yeah i'm glad you brought up the assistant coaching component of it because that's kind of what i think we've seen here that's probably the biggest impact as well right because taut macaw mccull and brings with him, Treniani, he replaces not only Derek Kolaun as a head coach, but Bob Ubner and all of a sudden the penalty kill, that's probably the most traceable difference for us here, right?

I think the Islanders were the only team that was worse on the PK than the Red Wings were under Derrick-a-a-lon this season, and that was a carry-over from last year. And then all of a sudden now, they're not necessarily the best P-K in the league, but the baseline is competent enough where it's not killing them every single night. And so that's something that's much more difficult, I think, for us from the outside to analyze the role of the assistant coach, their specializations, and then kind of like what they get out of their players because we focus so much on the front-facing head coach

and they take the good and the bad from the team's results. But in this case, it does feel like I know a lot's been made about, you know, Todd McClellan has certainly had a lot of at least regular season success over a couple stops in the NHL and he's well respected. And it seems like from reading a lot of the quotes and from talking to people covering the team, Der Colan was so by the end, whether the team tuned him out or whether he was,

too laid back. Like it was just the vibe around the team was one that just wasn't aggressive enough. And so all of a sudden now you bring in a pretty passionate coach and they're just playing a much more aggressive style and they're attacking more and they're looking more like the team that they were last year where it's not one that's ever going to have a lot of show volume, but they're much more dangerous off the rush and they're executing a lot more succinctly, I guess. And so that's one difference. but it does feel like the assistant coaching and the P.K. here in particular is the most obvious change.

And that's probably one that we wouldn't generally focus on because we're so preoccupied by just looking at who the head coach is. Yeah. And it's even more interesting when you think about like who ran the Red Wings before this. It's Derek Llan, who managed a very good penalty kill in San Bama. And I know he had different personnel, but still, I think systems and strategies with special teams, especially the penalty kill, sometimes you can figure out a way to be stronger than the strength of your actual roster there. and Bob Bootner, like, he had great experience with the San Jose Sharks. Like, I think it was 15, 16. Their penalty kill was really, really, really strong under him.

I think something else I'm hoping we learn is what these coaches learn from it and how they evolved because with Lelon and even with Lane Lambert, you have two first-time head coaches who really strike out in their first go at the NHL level, but they were both very good assistant coaches. Like Derek Lolland was a very good assistant coach, I think, was what Tampa Bay needed after Rick. bonus under John Cooper. And I think Lane Lambert, we saw his expertise with Barry Trots. And it's possible that the Barry Trots effect kind of overshadowed everything. But we're seeing

Lane Lambert rebound in an assistant coaching capacity this year in Toronto. And their penalty hill is so good under him. I wonder if, you know, maybe some coaches are just better fits as assistant coaches and better with one specialty. I think you can make the case of someone like Adam Oates that that's totally the case with him versus a head coaching role. And I wonderful learn that with Lambert or Lalonde, if they get. get another go or, you know, what they learn just going from that assistant to head coach capacity does going back to an assistant coach kind of help reset the mindset for them and then they can jump back into a new head coaching role. Like, will that help them out? So I'm hoping we start learning

that way because it'll be unfortunate if it's like, hey, here's two first time head coaches and they failed. So, you know, you're not going to give them another go. And in some cases, that's the case. I think you can make the argument someone like David Quinn kind of struck out twice now that you go, okay, maybe he really does have more to learn or isn't a fit in a head coaching capacity. He'd be better used elsewhere. But I'm just hoping that we learn a little bit more about coaches. It's something like I love looking into.

Yeah. No, it's a really fascinating thing to the study. Obviously, it has an outsized impact on teams, but it's something that we talk about way less than the actual players involved. All right, Shane out, we've got to get out of here. I'll let you plug some stuff on the way out. Let the listeners know where they can check you out

and what you had in the works here recently. You can read all my stuff at The Athletic. I have stories coming out this and next week about retooling on the fly and concernometers and then foreign nation stuff. And you can follow me on Twitter and Blue Sky to catch up on everything and also see all the cool upcycle things because there might be new projects in the works that I am so excited about that are made out of 100% scraps from the vest and jean jackets. Awesome, Shane.

I will keep up the great work. It's always fun to have you on and talk about the league. Thank you everyone for listening to us. If you want to go help out the show, smash that five-star button wherever you listen, pop into the PDOCAST Discord as well to get involved in the daily conversation. And that's all for today's episode. We'll be back either Thursday or Friday here to close out the week with more of the hockey PDEO cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.