The Hockey PDOcast - Looking Ahead to 2024 Stanley Cup Futures

Episode Date: June 14, 2023

Thomas Drance joins Dimitri to look ahead to next year's Stanley Cup futures market, and talk about which teams stick out to them based on how they're being initially priced.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippo. Welcome to the Hockey PEOCast. My name is Dimitri Filippovich and joining me in studio, my good buddy Thomas Drans. Tom, what's going on, bud. Oh, man, what a bad hockey game it was last night. Like, it was basically at all-star pace in the third period. Like, the last 10 minutes was played at 50% pace, but obviously the Vegas Golden Knights unfurled one last can. of just absolute whoop-but on an opponent. I mean, how many times did they do this in the postseason? Like where they're closing it out and it's like, oh boy, you know,

it could get nervy if they lose this game and then they just flatten a team by a six-goal margin. Yeah. And yeah, it was a continuation of the postseason they've had. I actually, you know, the third period obviously didn't have any drama or any stakes involved. It was really just like they might as well have had a running clock to get to the eventuality of it. But the second period was scintillating. Super fun. Because it was like a team realizing that they're at the finish line.

And instead of crawling there, like, as decisively and emphatically just putting the finishing touches on what they'd been doing all series, really, the results hadn't necessarily reflected in terms of the scoreline for a couple of the games. Because Bobrovsky had been really good. He had been. But for the most part, I mean, it was about as one-sided of five games as you're going to get. And game five was no different. in that second period, it really felt like it was a 20-minute power play for Vegas. And so, you know, kudos to them. I find it bizarre to be viewing this as anything other than just like the rightful team won the Stanley Cup title. And this is a good thing for hockey. I legitimately

think if you built a playoff bracket of the last 16 Stanley Cup winners, like, I mean, Vegas, Detroit and 08 and the 2010 Chicago Blackhawks would be. be like the three favorites. Yeah, that Tampa Bay team in the bubble. Yeah, that was a dominant team. Yeah, because, like, they were running that Gord Coleman, Goodrow, third line, but really, like, they were playing second line minutes. And they still had Verhege on the fourth line.

That's, like, the big reason you'd pick the bubble team over the next year. I didn't really remember that. Like, I wasn't doing a podcast during that bubble, so, like, I wasn't following. I was obviously watching all the games and everything, but I was looking at Verhege's playoffs, game logs, and there was a game. in there where he played like 22 minutes or so and i was like oh wow i didn't i didn't remember that at all i thought he was like a bit player who was occasionally like stepping in and he was like patrick maroon's linemate and they ran 11-7 and occasionally through that kuturov down there but remember point got hurt

as the series as that playoff run went along i was in the bubble and i was watching this guy just being like oh my goodness uh eyes wide open he was incredible but that's the reason that i think you'd pick that version of tampa bay and yeah i mean they're they're a favorite too but my point is is it's really hard to find another Stanley Cup winner even that I think you decisively look at and say like that team's better. Like I really think we're talking about a team that based on their playoff performance, based on their track record, based on how well they performed,

I think can stand toe to toe with the 2020 Lightning, the 2010 Blackhawks, the 2000 and was it 7 or 2008, Detroit Red Wings. Well, especially with the lack of like exploitable flaws they showed, right? Whereas like there's nothing where you could, we're worried heading into the series. little bit about speed and whether Florida would be able to kind of like outrace them and that just never really came to fruition. Like they, they up and down the lineup, there was no flaws with this roster. They were faster. They were faster. Like Chandler Stevenson, especially in those first two,

three games before Florida to their credit, I think adjusted and stopped seating so much of the middle of the ice to the Tampa Bay or sorry, the Vegas Golden Knights breakout. But I mean, Chandler Stevenson carved them up in those first two, three games and forced an adjustment. And then aside from what, the first five minutes of the game last night, it felt like the Florida four check was just not a factor in that series, particularly in comparison with what it looked like against Carolina and Toronto. Should we, do you want to keep going on this game?

Because I know, you and I have some sort of, some fun plans for today's show. I have your colleague, Jesse Granger, on tomorrow. So we can deep-dand- and I'm going to do a full deep dive with him on the PDO guest.

So don't fear. We're not going to just gloss over the end of the Stanley Cup final. Here, let me ask you a couple questions. Okay. And then we can move out. Are you, you're hosting? No, I just want to ask you a couple things.

I'm curious for your take on it because I have some thoughts. Here's one. Does this series or does this playoff run show that the Panthers are the elite team that they looked like last season and that their underlying numbers suggested they were going into the playoffs? Or should they proceed with caution this off season because they're not as close as it might have seemed over the past two months? Yes. I'm going to fence ride to, yeah. Yes to both of those. I don't think they're like they obviously weren't a quote unquote eighth seed the way we think about those. No. Right, right? Like they had the infrastructure in place that that far exceeded that. We've talked about how seven and oh and overtime, they were like 10 and two and one goal games. Like a lot of that isn't necessarily something that you bank on as all right, just get back to the postseason again next year. You're going to go through a similar run. Like that's not a formula for success to repeat. It's kind of a magical Cinderella run in that regard. I think what they should.

showed in this postseason though in terms of especially like in the first round four checking Boston just into smithereens in round two like the types of shots they gave the Leafs and then in round three the formula that they had stylistically against Carolina I do think there is something there right it's like a very now they weren't able to show it in this series because Vegas's defense was just so dominant but that strategy of like aggressive forecheck attacking off the rush and then going for quality over quantity offensively in terms of that approach. Like that's something to build on. That's like a real strategy.

This wasn't just like a pure luck like hope play on their part. But at the same time, I don't, we're going to talk about Stanley Cup odds for next season. They're kind of middle of the pack. And I think that's probably fair. Like I wouldn't have them in my top five teams to get back to this point. Yeah. I thought they were underpriced though relative to where they will and we'll get into that shortly.

Yeah. It's interesting. I think this is a really tough off season because for me, on the one hand, I think highly of this team. And I think they showed that that belief is justified, right? And it's an elite core group and there's some really fun, really skilled complementary pieces. I mean, Carter Verhege is a legit first line guy, right? I think Anthony Declay, there's a legit first line guy. Like, I think there's like five legit first line guys on this team.

Their forward group is really good. Unbelievable. Yeah. But they have some different decisions on the blue line, right? because Montour and Forsling both are expiring next summer. Well, I'm curious to see if one of those becomes their Uyghur, Huberto, like the piece they use. To facilitate another trade?

Yeah, like, I mean, those guys' value would be huge right now, no? Oh, certainly. Yeah, I still feel like Forsling, you could probably get him on an extension that still comes in at less than what he's probably worth of this team. Montour, you're going to be paying full price, right? Because, like, I mean, he was fantastic, no doubt about it. But also the way he did it was such like an in your face, like you can't, you can't look away from it performance as well, that those are the ones that you wind up paying full freight for, right?

Like you're not going to get brought him onto at this point at some sort of a discount. And so, yeah, like I imagine his stock around the league is very high. It's also such like a, without getting too cheese, it's such like a hard and soul performance this postseason that it's a really tough one to like divest yourself from as well though, right? For sure. Although that's classic George McPhee style ruthlessness. Yeah. Do you think Sergey Bobrovsky is any more movable today than he was three months ago? I think he was already movable.

The problem was that he has like a full no move and he probably would not have taken a trade to where I'd like to send him. He's not replacing Connor Hullabuck in Winnipeg. Well, even I think after this summer, right, Florida puts the bill on a significant signing bonus. I don't have his cap on the page in front of me here, but like the actual... The structure is not helpful, and the NMC is not helpful. And the draw of...

No, but the actual dollars come down quite a bit for the duration of the deal after you pay that signing bonus. Got it. Right? So I think like for a team that's looking to take on kind of one of those like empty shell deals, so to speak,

like he would have a bit of appeal, but he probably would not take a trade to like Arizona. Did you see... So I was watching Game 5, and it was like, as the Golden Knights were pouring it on, I was almost like keeping a mental checklist. And so after goals, I'd look around the ice, right?

Or I'd watch the highlight and I'd be looking and scanning the ice. And I'd be looking for like Lomburg check, Mahura check, stall check, injured Radco Gudis check. And it really did feel like a truth serum performance. How much, in your view, did the $10 million to Bobrovsky actually hold that team back from having the depth of the requisite depth to really hang with Vase? I guess. I mean, it did.

In the final assessment. Obviously not having Matthew Kachuk for really, like, from game three on and then not having E2 Listerinen in the series. Not that that was necessarily the difference between winning and losing the series, but I think that impact was obviously felt because you saw in this game after Paul Marais loaded up the top two lines. They were really just going with like a top six and then. Like Eric Stalling two guys.

Yeah. And so they were forcing that a little bit. Obviously, when you're committing $10 million to your starting goalie, that just decreases your margin for error elsewhere, and that's to your point what happened here. But I don't know, like they did get to this point with when they were healthy, their top three often, like forward lines were about as good as it gets. Vegas was just such a bad matchup for them.

Yeah, right? Because they were essentially like a bigger, better, faster version of them with significantly better depth. And so it was, I wonder if like if a Dallas had gotten through or something or someone else in the West. I wonder if it would have looked a bit, different, but just they just had no recourse for getting around what Vegas was able to do to them. Yeah, they lived on the outside throughout that series. All right, two more really quickly.

One is I'm going to throw a wild theory at you. Okay. And you can pan it on error. I agree with it. All right. I mentioned this in the group chat yesterday. So if you're a contending team, would you consider if you have, say, like an average paid starter, say if you have a $4.5 million starter, he's got three years left on his deal and you're like, fine with him.

It's not great. He's not bad. He's Frederick Anderson type. Yes. Would you look at what Vegas got from the likes of Laurent Brassoa and Aidan Hill in the playoffs, but also from Logan Thompson over the course of the season? Yep. And consider going out and signing three goalies, three goalies.

So a backup and two guys in the A to two-year deals for $1.5 million one way, with the idea that by giving them term and a high one-way salary, you could get them through waivers, and you just have a bunch of guys to maybe get hot. You buying or selling on this is a strategic idea because at the end of the day it's basically like, hey, I'm spending $2 million on my backup. It's just that a bunch of that money is buried in the American League.

So Logan Thompson is the only goalie they have under contract for next season because we're assuming like Rod the Leonard will not be playing. Is the L.C or just a really sweetheart? No, he just has a really sweetheart. It's like 700K or something like that. Yeah, it's below the veteran minimum. Good for them. I like that.

we've had conversations about how like the way Nicola Yokic played in the NBA finals makes you, if you're like a Bruce Brown type or a role player, it's like what better way to go and earn yourself a payday than going there on a one year sort of prove a deal to just juice your stats,

play competitive basketball in this case, and look as good as you possibly can, right, to showcase your skills. In this case, what we saw from Vegas' defensive system and how good they made those goalies you mentioned, especially Aidan Heldes postseason look, If I'm someone like a

Like James Reimer Well James Reimer is already like what 35 36 though I was thinking more along the lines of like Mackenzie Blackwood let's say Okay His stock has fallen so badly right where he's Unplayable this season A one year prove a deal

To go and look And like be like all right we're not going to guarantee you anything But you probably will get 20-ish starts And if you play it well maybe more Who knows how how things shake out next season There's like no better situation to be playing in than what this defensive environment showed.

And so if I'm a younger goalie whose stock has fallen, that's a good way to show that all of a sudden, oh, and I'm actually not that bad. And then next summer, with the cap going up a bit more, all of a sudden you can earn yourself more as opposed to these 36-year-olds where no one's going to ultimately pay you for it.

So, like, if there's durability concerns that eat into Tristan Jari's market, right? Like something like that. Like, well, I think, I think some, I think he's shown up, but I think like a Blackwood or an Alex Nadalkevich. Like those are guys, right, where they used to have pedigree, they fell off, now they're looking for a place to play, but also potentially kind of a reclamation project. Like, that's the goalie.

Obviously, if you can get an anti-Rantel or Freddie Anderson or Jari, you snap at that. But I think you could even go lower end in that regard and still get the upside out of it. Because, I mean, with all due respect to Aidan Hill, like. He's good. He's good. like Vegas under no circumstances should be picking up the tab on this, right? Oh, and I don't think anyone should. So that leads actually nicely into my next question for you.

And I'll suggest one after you suggest one. Okay. So you're going first, though. What player gets a contract as a direct result of Vegas's run to the Stanley Cup final? Now, this can be a Vegas expiring or it can be a player whose value pops as a result of Vegas's template. What player in the NHL pending UFA gets the most regrettable contract as a result of Vegas's postseason dominance? There's lots of good options here, so I'm curious.

I know which ones you want. It's a matter of how ruthless I want to be in terms of taking your guys. No, no, no. I guarantee you you won't take my guy. I'd be very so shocked. If you do, good for you. So you should try and take my guy. Don't be generous here because I've got multiples.

Okay, so this is a bit cheating a little bit because I felt this way prior to this. but I would not want to be the team signing Ryan Graves for whatever he's going to get this summer. Yeah, five times five. Five point five times five. Yeah, I mean, who knows? Like, sky's limited, especially after this, right? You watch, and, you know, a talking point out of this is, well, look at the size of that Vegas blue line. Like, this is, this is what it's all about. These guys are so rangy.

Look how much space they take up. Like, they're winning all these netfront battles. And part of that is certainly true, but I don't, all those guys are also very good players. Yeah. And Ryan Graves is fine, but I just, like, I wouldn't be paying a premium, especially catapulting off of this Stanley Cup run for Vegas into, like, talking myself into him being some sort of a difference maker on the open market. I mean, he could be your Braden McNabb.

But Braden McNab is making like 2.65 or something. No, I know. That's what I'm saying, though. That's the brilliance of the way Vegas is structured. We'll talk more about this in terms of their next year outlook. But those defenders, other than Petrangelo's contract are all, like, Martinez is making a 5, whatever, but he's expiring next year. but Hague, White Cloud, McNabb,

and then in Theodore, obviously, right, for two more years, under six, like, those are... Steels. That's what it's all about. That's how you build this group. And so I don't want to be paying a premium because that all of a sudden takes you away from that model. So my answer was going to be Ivan Barberchap. I just think at the end of the day...

I wonder if he stays, though. Well, so the interesting thing about Barbashchev, too, is his agent Stan Milstein, Yeah. Who represents Gavakov, who just went for two years. You think you would take a two-year deal in the Milstein model, two years for like four and a half or five per? I'm not writing it off, particularly because the reason to not do it is, dude, you just had the Power Winger, Fernando Pisani, Brian Bickle playoff run. Go, you know, make enough. Five years or more.

Go make enough money to, you know, bury it all in your backyard. Yeah. Like, but. Is that what free agents do? I don't know. Gavakov also Gavrikov also had that season, that opportunity. And Kuzmenko, with his 25% shooting clip,

also had that season. Yep. And they still went short. So it wouldn't stun me, especially if Barbashev's taken a real shine to the community. I feel like same age roughly as well, right? Was Barbashev back? Like 27, maybe 28?

Yeah, he's the same. Yeah. So he'd be around 30, give or take, in two years. It's the 2015 draft, so he's the same age as McDavid. Okay. Yeah. Yeah.

No, I think if he was willing to do that type of deal, I was going to. Is there a limit to the cap hit that you'd even frown at if he's willing to do that type of deal? And how much of it depends on Mark Stone's health and how he decides to succeed. Yeah. Okay, I don't want to step on the toes of this biggest conversation because we're going to talk about them more. All, let's move on. Thanks for answering my questions. Thanks for hosting the Pneed-Ucast. That was great.

I have all these notes, and it turns out I didn't need any of them. Okay, let's get into, let's start the next topic. We can go a little bit before we go to break. So what we're going to do is we're going to do a different little spin. The day after the Stanley Cup was awarded, instead of focusing all of our efforts on that, and I'll touch on it more tomorrow's show, we're going to look ahead.

We're going to look ahead at the 2024 Stanley Cup market. We're going to look at some teams that we feel. like are either overpriced or underpriced by Vegas. And then we're going to talk about why and potentially lay out the, lay out our scenarios for why we feel like. Because this is the time to pounce if you have a feel or a take on a team, right, before free agency starts, before trade start happening in the off season for the most part.

Because if you feel like there's a buying window for one of these contenders, you want to get in on it before they acquire that player, make their team better, and juice their odds, right? This is exactly like how when the NFL, when the Super Bowl was first announced or first awarded, you said to me, Ravens 30 to 1, that's the best value on the board. I was trying to tell you Lamar was going to come back. I know. You were just, you were not buying it. Well, I wasn't not buying it so much as I didn't actually purchase the ticket.

That's the problem. But that was a great call. So I figured it would be a fun way to pivot to the offseason now that the Cups been awarded. Let's do it. Maybe you can loan some of that wisdom to your audience. Yeah. We'll see. I don't know if I necessarily have anything that's moldering. Okay, do you want to start at the top then?

Yeah. Or do you want to just, we can just go in random order team by team. Yeah. Whatever you're feeling. So we're looking at outrights, right? And, you know, our friends at play now sports have some pricing. Obviously, we're also going to look at the overall Vegas pricing, compare and contrast, shop around, get the best price.

But let's talk about, let's talk about like the most overpriced teams that you've seen so far. Okay, well, it has to be the Bruins, right? It's the Bruins by law. So what are they by Vegas? They're 11-01. And Play Now has them even... Has the favorite, right? They has them tied with Colorado Avalanche is the favorite 9-1.

Okay, let's talk about those two teams then here. Yeah. So Boston... Because you're fading both of those, right? I'm not fading Colorado, and we'll get into that in a second. And here's why. Boston has $67 million right now committed to six forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie.

Does that include the 4.5 million overage? It does, but it doesn't include the fact that that would have to shed Macros Lake, which is fine. Derek Forbort, which is fine, right? Because both those guys have one year left at three-ish. But Mike Riley, you also have to shed. And I assume that'll actually require some sort of a legitimate sweetener, just get someone to take that money off your hands.

Doesn't include Jeremy Swayman and Trent Frederick's RFA's. Doesn't include, obviously, Bergeron and Creachie, who are their top two centers. And so you're left with a shell group and you don't have a first or second in 2023 or 2024, which really limits your ability to creatively facilitate trades, right?

And it's also a relatively barren prospect group. And it's fine. Like this was the year for them to go push all of their chicks in, acquire Orlov, acquire Tyler Routouzi. Like, no doubt about it. Didn't wind up working out. You can't fault them for it. But their way, their avenues for improvement

are just non-existent, barring, and it would be in Barry Bruin's fashion, something just out of the sky falling in their lap, right? But see, I wouldn't count on, like, the way that I would look at it is, I don't think the risk that Bergeron doesn't return is priced inappropriately here, because I think there's a real risk that he doesn't return.

Not that he goes elsewhere, but that maybe he's just done. Well, he's just irreplaceable, right? Totally. Obviously, the on-ice stuff, the intangibles, whatever, Also for the price he was playing at this season. Like, you just, you cannot fill those minutes and everything he meant to that team. Like, he was, he was deservedly the best defensive forward in the league. Even if there's a 30% chance he doesn't come back, there's no way they should be priced as the favorite.

And I would say the avenues for them to improve require them to actually move good players first. Right? Like, I mean, first of all, almost impossible to improve on historically good. Yeah. But it's going to be especially hard to. improve on historically good when you have to make cap dump style trades involving, you know, at least two of Carlo, Forbert, Greslick, Linus Lomark. Like at least two of those four guys are probably going to have to move to make the money work.

Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I guess if there's... Maybe Taylor Hall, but I wouldn't even... I doubt that one. If there's a team that, like, for years now we've been losing betting against being like, like, This is the year they fall off. It's them. Although Vegas has kind of been fading them too.

Vegas has been waiting for it. So Vegas has almost been setting their like over, unders and point totals a little too low for us to lose too much. But yeah, I mean, I've been waiting for the Bruins to fall off for four years. Like when they lost Tuka Rask, I was sure that they were going to take up. I mean, they still have good players, right? Like you have Pasternak, Marshaun and then McAvoy, Linholm. Like, those are good building blocks to like make.

make lesser players look better, right? Like you can fill in the gaps around them because they're the types of players that actually can bring guys along for the ride. Plus all plus coil and both paid fairly. I mean, there's a route to being a playoff team. There is in a tough division, right? And also, I just, yeah,

they have to make a lot of moves this off season with very few cards to play it beyond just like giving guys away for free and hoping people will take them, which is going to make them worse. and then they won't even have the space to really bring in anyone to replace those minutes, right? Like, okay, it's fine. You're going to give away Forburt and Grizzlick for free. Just get someone to take the money off their hands.

All right, well, now you still have like a couple million dollars to replace guys playing significant minutes for you, especially like Forbord's the top penalty killer for them. Grizzlick's a fantastic file and five player. Like, how are you accomplishing that? Especially in a division where you've got the Leafs, you've got the lightning, you've got our Buffalo Sabres on the wall. way up, right? Well, and I don't think you can count out auto or Detroit.

I think they're going to be both very aggressive in trying to, like, push towards competency, right? I think Montreal is the only one that's going to punt next season. Yeah. Oh, and I don't even know if they'll fully punt next season. I think they'll probably punt next season. I think they will, but they'll at least do, like, a couple things to make it look like they're not.

Right. Just to keep Jeff Mollson happy. But you're buying Avstock. You think they're a fitting favorite? Okay. Let's take a... This is a... business is a call a tease.

We're going to go to break here. When we come back, we'll talk about the abs. We'll talk about some of our other most interesting teams in the 2024 market. You're listening to the Hockey-Pedio cast streaming on the SportsNet Radio Network. Your number one spot for Flames coverage can be found on Flames Talk with me, Pat Steinberg. Exclusive interviews, trusted insiders, and the latest news. Listen live weekday afternoons and four or stream the Flames Talk podcast on demand. All right, we're back here in the Hockeyediocast with Thomas Drands.

Tom, we're talking 2024 futures for the Stanley. up next season. So the a abs are being priced as a co-favorant, right? The reason why I like them beyond feeling like the big money players they have in place have more room to do heavy lifting just based on their age and skill sets is they also have many more resources for improving their team. So with Gabriel Landis Gogh not playing next season, right? That's $7 million. So what, 20-ish million in cap space? Yeah, so I have them at $61.5 million committed to five forwards, which is not very many. Nope.

Four defensemen, not including Boeing Byron, was an RFA, and two goalies. But here's the thing. At least they have, like, draft capital in place. They, they, interesting enough, did not give away their first round pick in this coming draft of the trade deadline, right? They went for a more modest approach and just basically bringing in Lars Eller and that being the extent of their moves with all due respect to bringing back Jack Johnson as well as one of their trade airline moves.

they have space. They also have like appealing players, right? We're talking about for Boston. All right, well, yeah, you can just give away a Grizzlick or Forebird for free, but not expecting anything back in return. If you do want to get really creative with a Sam Gerard trade, you can. And that's like a legitimate asset, right?

$5 million for four more seasons, a guy in his mid-20s who, like, your opinion on it may vary. But an enterprising team could talk themselves into him being held back by superior players in Colorado, but just like letting them run wild on a worse team. You mean offensively? Yeah. Yeah.

Like I, at the very least, just it would be a very, and it is an entertainment product after all. That's what NHL is, I guess, supposed to be, right? And if you're a bad team, you could do a lot worse than just giving Sam Gerard 25 minutes a night and just letting them spin around on the ice for 18 of those. Throw them in the old Keith Yandel and Arizona roll. Hell yeah.

Let's see Sam Jard put up 90 points next season. Why not? No, but. Or even if you're, team like Montreal like that's not a bad asset to bring it well the other thing is like Colorado they got their Stanley Cup already they this is the last year they have don't taves on that sweetheart 4.1 million right so this is this is almost like the year yeah well but the i suppose the reason i'm a little bit concerned about it is uh there's a lot of holes to fill j t comfer is expiring

evan rodriguez is expiring yeah those were like two of the five guys that that they had who could hang in that Cracken series. But doesn't that, so Evan Rodriguez, for example, right? They get him on like a one-year deal at the end of the agency, just come in, we're going to put you in a good spot. They're going to have that option again this off-season, right?

Like, if you're a free agent looking to rebuild your value, I would want to go to Colorado and potentially get top six minutes. 100%. But the problem is, is I don't see a path where, like, it feels to me like if they're going to have championship level depth,

then we're going to need to see like Ben Myers. You know, Ben Myers, what a summer he's had. You know, like. Ben Myers is in the best shape of his life. You want to read those stories? More than just the best shape of his life. I want to see it in November when it's like Ben Myers has earned the trust of Jared Bednar and is legitimately driving play.

Like, it just, their forward ranks feel a little bit hollow. And when you throw in the uncertainty around Nachushkin, it just feels to me like, you know, even if you bring back a. Comfer or Rodriguez, and I don't know if you should, because I don't know that those deals are going to be efficient for you. The, you know, like, like, where's, where's the push? I just, it feels to me like they're now paying the price for contending the way that they did and the way that they had to and the way that they wisely went about doing it because they did everything right and this isn't a criticism. They won their cup. Banners fly forever. But I, I just don't see enough

up front. It feels like they need like the Florida Panthers 2020 fall off season where you get like for Hagee declare. Are they, are they prior like in a spot with how smart that front office is and the building blocks in place to like convince people to come do that? Like it feels like if anyone's position to do it, it's them.

They need so much volume though. So you're saying you're betting on their ability to do it. I'm going to go the other way though. You mentioned replacing confere and Evan Rodriguez. One of my lasting takeaways from the end of their 2023 run was with the season on the line, they're down a goal at home

in game seven against Seattle. They have like two minutes of sustained offensive zone pressure, right? With net empty, two of their six players on the ice were Evan Rodriguez and J.D. Comper. And to me, that's like,

I'm glad that money's off the book. Like Rodriguez was a very efficient deal and Comper wasn't making much himself, but those are actually players I want to improve on. Right. So I'm okay with, I'm not viewing that as a negative as like,

oh, they're off the books. What are we going to do now? I'm going to ambitiously try, to improve those players because they have to. We went to Seattle and we watched those games live, you watch one more than I did.

When McKinnon wasn't on the ice, they had no chance of scoring. It was wild. Yeah. And obviously, Natushka not playing, hurt them big time. I literally don't think

they had a five-on-five goal in that series or one five-on-five goal with McKinnon-on-five. They hit three in 200-plus minutes. Oh, and they had nine in his like, however many he played.

And he was so good. So let me give you two options for them. One, Mark Sheifley. I like it. One year, 6.1.25. The Jets are going to sell. Gerard?

Oh, I don't know. I don't think he has one year left. I guess, like, the Rangers might be a threat because they've just been linked to him forever, it seems like. But I don't think you're necessarily paying that big of a premium. Oh, man. A flawed player. Maybe I might be lower on Mark Shafley than consensus. I think the problem is that Winnipeg's going to want. Right. They need something to sell as like, this is.

And they need players with term. Like young players too, right? younger players with term. That's why I sort of wonder, like, is Gerard part of it? Because that term and the attractiveness of the deal, Winnipeg might be like, ha, ha, trapped him. Yeah. I just, from a body type perspective and also, like, I'm worried about him defensively.

But if you are playing him with a Natchewski or Lekinen, they can paper over a lot of that. I feel like just stylistically he's a very good fit. But you're right, the acquisition cost might be prohibited. And without Landisog in the room, I'd be very curious to see how Shafley and McKinnon, What the dynamic there would be. That would be fantastic. Another player, though.

I'm on board, yeah. Nick Schmaltz. Yeah, Nick Schmaltz is a no-brainer. 5.85 for three years left. Makes, as we talked about, 7.5, 8.45, 8.5, 8.5, and real cash. I wish that I could bet on a future of him not being on Arizona next year because there's absolutely zero chance. They are picking up that tab.

I still, he's probably more of a winger than a center for them. So I don't know that really fills the J.D. come for a second line center that was already a problem last year, but a very high, like, skill level player who speeding him up with the skill, adding more skill around him, like, I think he could benefit from that. So I don't know, I feel like Colorado has ways to, to improve here. I don't think they're nearly as boxed in as Boston is. They do, but I wouldn't want to pay a favorite price on a team that needs as much volume, even if I believe in their front office to deliver it. Yes, but if you're fading them, you, and the season starts, you're still going to be absolutely.

absolutely terrified on being on the other side of McKinnon and McCar. Absolutely. But, you know. You'd be just just white knuckle sweating, sweating it out the entire time. Put it this way. Put it this way. I think I'd rather have the Golden Knights to repeat at 16 to 1 than the Aves to win at 9-1, given the state of both teams and their relative routes forward here.

So do you think that Vegas, because... I don't like Vegas. biggest even, to repeat. I'm just saying in terms of betting one of the top teams, like here, I'll give you another, the Carolina Hurricanes, and I just want to bring this up to troll you, your favorite team,

the Carolina Hurricanes. Are they going to fundamentally change everything about themselves? Well, at the end of the day, they have, what, $28 million in Capspace, and Jordan Stalled a sign. They do. And like nothing else's material. Now, there's some downside risk that they move on Brett Pesci.

Well, they have a fat, yeah, because Pesci, Shea, and Aho are all UFAs next here. Or sorry, after next summer. But I think Aho's, of course. Aho's the one that, you know, we're hearing positive stuff about. No, but Peschi is the interesting one. But for an organization that doesn't necessarily want to pay full freight for top players. But they're going to pay full freight for Aho based on his age and importance.

I think the Pesci question is the interesting one to me. That's the guy who I wonder if they're like, you know, based on, I wonder if they treat it like the Hubert-o. Like Pesci might be their Hubert-O. Uyghur where it's like if we're going to try and keep an open-ended window that might be the guy um so caroline is fascinating and there's some downside risk there but at the end of day i'm getting an elite team with a young group of players right like neck cash costs three million next year they might regret bridging him by the way uh set jarvis is one more year 21 he's got one more year at nothing a ho's is aho 26 like in mitch martner's age right i mean you know go up and down there

their roster like, Svetnikov is going to come back. He's only 23. Like, yeah. Their roster is so young. They should have another ceiling. I'd like to see them generate more high quality looks, obviously, but 28 million in CapSpace and an already elite team, to me, that's a way better bet at a, at longer odds. Yeah. Than the Colorado Avalanche. Well, and they've also like just adding, obviously Patriot didn't wind up working out,

but getting him and Burns for free using that cap space. you mentioned last summer to add quality players. They're going to get paid to add an elite player. Yeah. If they add more talent, I'm willing to revisit it. So yeah, for the purpose of this exercise, this is a good time to jump on that, I guess, if you feel like they will.

Would you be stunned by Travis Keneckney? Would you be stunned by, I don't know, whatever guy? I mean, well, I have, do want to talk, should we continue with Vegas quickly because you kind of threw them out there? Or do you want to talk about the Oilers who are also listed as a favorite? because you mentioned Kinekne. You like Kinekney for Edmonton? Yes.

Is he a goalie? I don't, I don't, I don't think they, I think a much bigger, as they showed against Vegas, a much bigger concern for them was they got absolutely nothing from their top six wingers, which is unacceptable when you're playing with the Tresada and McDavid. And they desperately need to improve that. They're going to either buy out Yamamoto or I think if you make a trade with Philly, you can easily sell taking him on for one more year, $3 million,

and then whatever, you can either just dump him or give him top line minutes and maybe he produces and you sell him off for another pick down the road, getting off of Yamamoto's money and adding Kine and paying whatever it takes to do that, it would be a highly interesting proposition for me. Now it sounds like while Philly's going to be a big seller,

to move Kineenctne and rightfully so, like you're going to need to pay something resembling a Godfather offer for that. How about Scott Lotton for a first? Did this blow you away the other day? I was like, Scott Lawton. Wow, that graphic during the Stanley Cup finally is Scott Lawton very popular. Written by Scott Lawton's mom insists. No, and like, I'm a big Lawton guy, but it's like he's an absolute middle six.

Like, no question, middle six guy. Three years of term, three million and someone's going to part with an act. Like, there's a Scott Lawton out there who teams are down on for no. reason who you can probably get for free. Absolutely nobody should be paying assets for that guy. Now, Kinekenegne is awesome. Well, here's my thing when the Oilers. I'm on board with this.

I love this idea. The improvements they made this season around McDavid-Andreys I think just the lasting impression losing in round two when they were picked to win that series, I think is going to take, like, is going to push people off the, off the, off the scent a little bit. But after the trade deadline, after acquiring Matias Echolm, they finished 18, 2, and 1 with the plus 37 goal differential in their final 21 regular season games. And as it turns out, they gave the Vegas, like, the best couple haymakers they got all

postseason. Sorry, aside for a minute, I just want to quickly talk about this. And that's not a moral victory, but I'm just saying, like, I don't think them losing to Vegas is some sort of embarrassment. They weren't not in that series either. It was 2-2, and they demolished them in games 2 and 4. And then game 5 and 6 were both very close. Like, they gave them good shots.

I don't. No, I agree with you. I mean, I expected Edmonton. Yeah, we both picked them. We did a preview for that series. We both picked them. I thought of Edmonton as a contender. Yeah?

All along I did. Now, or at least all along after the at home trade. I still think their goal tending makes me nervous, specifically the Campbell deal. But, and then obviously there's some uncertainty with Bouchard, right? They do have some stuff to figure out. Do you think they buy out Campbell this summer? Oh, man, that's a long buyout, right? Well, you tack on four extra years, but it saves you,

It saves you 3.5 in cap space for each of the next two seasons. No, I mean... The point I'm trying to make there is... What's the length remaining on McDavid's deal? Two years? Well, McDavid's three. Dricidels, too. Okay.

So that is your window. So that two-year window... Yeah, I would do that. Which Travis Kineckney, as a 26-year-old, has two years left on his... Like, if I was Ken Holland right now, I'm framing everything through maximizing and optimizing the next two years. You're right. And if you buy out...

So if you're saying if you buy out Campbell and trade... Yamamoto for Kinek, it's a cap neutral move. Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. That's pretty good. Obviously, it would require significant prospects and picks, but that's fine. Yeah, who cares, right? And also, it's like, at some point, you can't be chilling, waiting for Xavier Borgo, or even Philip Broberg at this point.

And, I mean... Yeah, the issue is they do need to replace C.C.'s minutes. I don't think you can bring him back as a top four right-shot defenseman. So you think he's getting dealt. There you go. That's another free defenseman for somebody. Yeah, 3.25 for 2 years. Not the word.

He needs to play third pair of minutes. He's a totally fine. You know, you know, obviously I cover the Canucks. It's like, you're saying you need it to play third pair minutes. I'm like, I know a top pair that he'd be perfectly good on. I would love to watch Cody C.C. up goes in first no more. Dude, C.C. with Quinn Hughes. I'm not kidding.

I'm not kidding with you. That would be the best partner he's had since Chris Tanna. It would be perfect. He could play top pair minutes in Vancouver. Anyway, but that's, you know, with a one man. Okay, Vegas. Do you have any other oilers notes or don't know? I just don't, I don't love the Oilers odds at 11-1.

I don't love that bet. I don't think there's as much juice there for me as there is for Carolina. Okay. Let me give you my favorite longer shot pick. Yep. And I know you're kind of on board with this, or at least a little bit. so, you know, I'll try not to agree with you too much. But at the end of the day, when you have Crosby, Malkin, Latang,

locked in at the affordable clips that they are and at the level that they played last season. Yep. And you have Gensel and you have Rust and, you know, you have Marcus Pedersen. Like, you have the basis for like a good top pair and a good top six. Yep. And you just need to flesh out the rest. 30 to 1. 30.

I think it's 31 to 1. Yeah, 33 to 1 per Vegas, 31 to 1 per play now sports. That's like, like it's hard to find another team in that 30 plus range aside from maybe our 40 to 1 Buffalo Sabres. Yeah. That are worth really chasing. That have the upside. Yeah. Yeah, I agree with that because Kyle Dubas is coming in in with like a very clear directive, I assume.

of let's try to maximize Crosby and Malkins final two years here, let's say, as well as they were playing last year, right? I think they've earned that. And then we'll do an aggressive rebuild after that, which is almost going to be just as fun for him, I imagine. The thing I like about them is you buy out Granland, you figure out, I've liked, I've been pitching you on a lot of John Gibson trades. Yeah, and I'm not having it.

But one of the appeals of that is I think you could conceivably get them to take on Jeff Carter's deal under the guise of, he goes back to Cal. Like that's one place he probably would be willing to let you free from that. Four years left? No, one year. Oh, for Gibson. Yeah. Well, I like Gibson as a bet for them. No, I hate it.

Well, okay. We won't fight this one because this could be a full show. I'll do this with Kevin. I hate it. You should. I just think, I just think if, if. If Kyle Dubus rolls the dice on Matt Murray and then John Gibson in consecutive seasons, it's like, Lord help that. Well, one of those things is not like the other.

But, yeah, Matt Murray is actually good. Oh, come on. You son of. All right. Okay, 14th overall, right? Is their pick? Yep. Owen Pickering they took last year.

Yeah. I see absolutely no reason why either of those assets should be on the Pittsburgh Penguins two weeks from now. Yep. And so that by clearing up some caps ways to do so all of a sudden, and with like a very clear directive from the perspective as well of team building where Mike Sullivan is an amazing coach. The past couple years, they kind of went off the rails by bringing in all these bottom six guys

that do not play Mike Sullivan hockey. You can probably get that for relatively cheap. And then you just replace if you let Zucker go, on the trade market, you use some of that draft capital that I just mentioned. Why not go steal Nick Eelers? Why not go get involved in, I don't know, Clayton Keller, anyone. Like, just get creative, right?

Yeah, on the trade market, add a top six forward on the free agent market for cheap or even on the trade market, bring in another defenseman that's underappreciated, a couple bottom six guys. A goalie, I think there's a plan in place there. And like fast wingers that don't have a hit ever. Yeah, just forecheck, just forecheck, forecheck, four check. Like, like, Yesper Fost would be immense in Pittsburgh. Yeah.

As an example. I also think, Mark, Granlin might have slightly more movability than people realize, because at the end of the day, he can play center. I know he was terrible in Pittsburgh, and that's going to dent. They're not going to get back what they paid, but I don't know that that's a buyout or bust contract. I really don't. Wow, they can get off of it without getting anything back, get on getting a future considerations in the way of a bag of packs.

I'm doing that right away. But his buyout is also not prohibitive, by the way. He won't be on the team, I don't think, but there's options. This 30, for me, like this late teens range. So like Vegas has the lightning at plus at 15 to 1, stars 17 to 1, Panthers 18 to 1, Kings 18 to 1. And it's like, I hate all of those bets. Like not that I dislike any of those teams or think it's unreasonable. I just think the value in that 30 to 1 tier with the exception of the 33 to 1 Winnipeg Jets is way better.

Like Tom, we're trying to give the listeners an actual Stanley Cup pick here, though. You can't be like, oh, I like this team at 35 to 1. They're not going to win the Stanley Cup. Well, let me give you the list first. All right. Okay, because I think there are, I think there are two legitimate teams with a shot in this group. Wild, flames, penguins, sabers, senators, crack it.

You're telling me the Buffalo Sabres. Don't get me to say negative stuff about our Buffalo Sabres. You're telling me if the Buffalo Sabres... You're not going to trick me, no. Acquire Connor Hellebuck this offseason that they can't win the cup. if things break right. I absolutely think that's worth a 35 to 1 bet, and it gives me an excuse to have fun watching Sabres hockey.

I'm happy to support that. I will not disagree on that. I think there's a lot of moves they can make this offseason that can significantly move the needle in their favor. They have an embarrassment of cap space, man. I'm fine. I'm fine with it. I'm not, but I just, oh, all of those other ones, like, I'm just, I, there's no roadmap.

You don't think there's a roadmap for the wild? No, not really. Cap Space? Yeah, not enough ways to improve their team. I don't think. There's some really good young players coming. I mean, it's got to be, they need a hit. They need, like, Marco Rossi to level up or Carson Lambo, something like that.

I mean, Ottawa's, there's a little too much uncertainty there. And then the Cracken have 20 million in Cap Space. Like, I absolutely see the Cracken as a team capable of taking another step, especially if they can find a way to improve in that. So I like Cracken and Savers at 30 plus. one and then we're trying to get to a Stanley Cup pick here. We haven't talked Devils 11.1. Well, and that's what I have circled here because having 15.25 million on Hissier and Hughes

for the next four years is probably the biggest advantage any team in the league has. Mercer still has another. Mercer still has a more year. And so, you know, they smartly get off of Severs and get a third round pick for it. I would love to see them do similar with Grand Graves as we talked about earlier. Did you see the report that they're going to try and do the same for Miles Wood? It's like if you get any asset for Miles Wood, whether he's expiring or not. If you get another GM to answer your phone call under the pretense that you're going to talk shop on Miles Woods rights,

I think that's a big win. So we'll see obviously what happens with. I think the Brat negotiations are understandably a bit precarious, right? It seems like it's reaching the point. of contentious, we'll see. I still think, like, bringing him and Timom Meyer back, I don't think you have to pick between the two. Yes, Berbrett is a better player?

Yeah, I'm okay with that. I think Timom Meyer, as he showed in the boat, and I know he struggled to score, obviously, but I think he did show that, like, it's understandable to be excited about the different elements that he brings that they don't really have otherwise. I don't think that is overblown. I agree with you, but there's no reason to not return bowl.

Yeah, no, 100%. And so, so you let, this is what we, talking about it all along. You let Graves and Severson go. You bring in Luke Hughes and Simone Nemitz as like the most super, at least for the first 25 games. Give them 100% offensive zone starts against other teams' fourth lines. Let them absolutely mash.

And then as the season goes along, you can kind of work them into more reasonable usage. But they have the luxury of doing so because of, you know, Marino, Seagenthal, or Hamilton, bring Kevin Ball back. So they have that in place. And Kevin Ball is like good. I like them as the Connor Hallibuck destination. Oh, that would be amazing. one year. Don't even worry about an extension right now. Just bring him in.

If they bring in Connor Hellebuck, do they become the favorite? I see. Well, I think the price they're listed at right now jumps up quite a bit. Yeah, because they're 11 to 1 now or 13 to 1 on Play Now Sports. That's the Play Now Sports. Our fine partners have longer odds there if you're shopping around. And sorry, just shilling. Yeah, I think they become the favorite. If you like them as a Hellebuck destination, have 30 million caps base granted a lot of that's going to be spoken for once they get bratt and mire done so it's not like they have oodles of flexibility but it's like what you bring in

depth defenseman dude ex-depth defenseman and upgrade and goal in that team and and ideally i still think you want one more guy with some some size on the wings well but the other thing that we unlike a lot of the other teams we previously mentioned that already have like established superstars their room to grow just from like development of the players we're talking about here shouldn't be discounted right like I think Jack Hughes as good as he was this year still has another level to hit

sure he does Nico Hissier is probably what he is but hey there's no reason to believe there's a decline coming based on his age but also I think he has more to offer offensively than he showed and I do think to the guys who get to the level that he's now at as like checking options start to start to get to like a mystique level. Yeah.

Where like, players are like so aware of what they can do that it kind of changes. We saw that with Couturier, for example. Yeah. He doesn't have, Nico, he sure doesn't have, like, gravity to his game the way like a Barkov does. I think he already did.

He could get that. He could get that. Absolutely obliterated Zabinajad and one. Not like Barkov does. No, of course not. Like, that's a different law. Of course not. I'd add, like,

William Carlson did play this postseason, right? Like, after the way he played at the start of the postseason, and becomes like a boogeyman where you're scared of having your top player on that against them at all time. And then that's what his year is. I definitely think Dawson Mercer can, I mean, I think Dawson Mercer can. His name is Doggson and Mercer. Seriously. I mean, like, if that guy's a first liner in two years, I won't be shocked.

Yeah. Whether it's at center or on the wing, it's just obviously he'll never be a first line center in New Jersey. But like he could be a first line caliber player. And then, you know, I still even think guys like Sharon Govich have more. Yeah. Oh, yeah. We'll see. We'll see what they do with some of the other roster spaces they have.

They got more assets. But speaking of ways a team can improve, they have so many for a team that was already really good last year. And at 13 or 11 to 1, that's the thing. Okay, we got to close up here. We have a couple more minutes only. Sorry, I just wanted to say it. At 13 to 1 on Plain House Sports, like if you were to circle underline mark in red, like, what's the best, what's the best pick? I think it's the Devils.

I think that Stars King's Tier is interesting. You like it more than me? Yes. Oh, okay, let's do the Stars real quick. Buyout Souter, right? You save yourself nearly $3 million in cap space and also just get him off the team. Sure.

You play Thomas Harley more in those minutes, whatever, finally start using Niels-Lunkwist. You can bring in another defenseman, is what I'm saying. You have space. I see both of those guys as specialists. You promote both Maverick Bork, who had an excellent season of the HL.

I like Maverick Bork a lot. And Logan Stancoe and starts sprinkling him in. Let's go. On ELCs, you know I'm here for that. On ELCs, while Wyatt Johnston is still like a legitimate top-line player on ELC, even though he's not playing those minutes. Tide Landria is the only real RFA. they have to worry about.

And then... And he's not going to be expensive to bring it back. And then that's good. That still gives you around $7 or $8 million to add a legitimate impact player, whether that is a left shot defenseman to fill those suitor minutes, or whether it's someone to replace the Adonov domi minutes. Yeah, I mean, I think you want to center. Like, or I guess why Johnston moves up and you hope Logan Stankovin can do it,

but I still think you want, like, Domi is a really good fit for them because I think what you one is like a winger who can play center. Yeah. Look, at the end of the day, I just think the Ben Sagan $19 million contracts is going to make it really hard no matter how well they draft, no matter how many sick players they have on bridge or ELCs.

It's just going to be so tough to overcome that inefficiency. Yeah. I really think they're ceiling. Like, I really think they hit their ceiling this year. Yeah, I just like, like, obviously, with Hayskin and Robertson and Haines is one thing, but I think the Wyatt Johnston. Ben's another year older.

Stagin's another year older. Pavelsky's another year older. They just had such inefficient minutes on like old players that they didn't need to be giving that to. And if you have faith, that they'll replace that with actual good players who can get better, which I just also don't like, Ben had his best year in four years this season

and was a second line caliber, maybe fringe first line caliber player. He was literally driving that line until he, imploded in the conference final. Sagan had an impressive bounce back from a really devastating surgical procedure and played at the level of a bottom six guy, like a high-end bottom-six guy, but a third-liner. Like, if you're spending $19 million on guys who you don't feel confident can be middle-six guys, I think it caps you.

All right. Unfortunately, we cannot talk about the Kings today. I really want to do that with you, but we are out of time, so we've got to get out here. We'll have plenty of time to talk about this rest of the off-season. Tom, quickly let you plug stuff. Oh, yeah. connect's talk on Sportsnet 650 of course and then obviously at the athletic

winners and losers of the Stanley Cup final you can go read that right now love that we'll be back tomorrow with Jesse Granger as I promise to talk more about the Stanley Cup final and Vegas's triumphant victory thank you for listening to the hockey p.mcadio guest as always streaming on the Sportsnet radio network