The Hockey PDOcast - Looking Ahead to Next Season

Episode Date: July 5, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to talk about the state of the Pacific Division, what teams have done this offseason to get better, and the initial Stanley Cup odds for next season. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dmitra Filippovich and joining me here. It's in the studio. It was my good buddy Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? Not much, buddy. How are you? Good. We didn't even really plan this. I just saw you around the office and I'm like, get in here. Let's chat for a bit. Well, once you told me it was about gambling. I was in. Well, tangentially. The plan for today, the genesis of this was I did a two-part.

With John Madison, Sean Shapiro yesterday, we did kind of our biggest takes from around the league, from the start of free agency, off-season movement so far. Within a two-hour show, it is a lot of time, but also you can only get through so much. So I felt like I left some meat on the bone. I wanted to kind of do a circle back and a little bit of a sweep with you, talk about some of the Pacific teams in particular, which is your area of expertise specifically. And so we talk about that and then kind of look ahead to 2020-5, right? That specific division.

That specific division. I want to talk, I did some kings and oilers stuff. So I want to talk Canucks and Cracken specifically. And then maybe compare the Pacific to the Central as well because I feel like, I mean, the balance of power was already in the Pacific, right? We had the Vegas Golden Knights win the Cup two years ago. We had the Edmonton Oilers represent the West in the Stanley Cup final this year. So it was already there.

But it feels like now we're having a little bit of a shift where the Central is, I feel like, beefed up a little bit. The Pacifics, you know, at least from the Oilers. perspective got stronger I thought this offseason, but it's becoming so concentrated, where you're getting to a spot where I feel like the top three in the Pacific is so firmly established and they're just going to basically cannibalize all the points. And then I feel like all the other teams of Pacific are going to struggle and fall back, including the Kings and the Cracken, despite all the money they spent. I think I'm higher on the Kings and the Cracken in the short term than you are,

but I think they've materially lowered their ceiling and we'll get into that as we go. Let's talk about the Cracken. Let's start with that. Because they spent a bunch of money, right? they like out of the gate they came out hot they gave out two seven year deals to 30 year olds in brandon montour and chanler stevenson i certainly prefer montour as a player at this point uh and he got a little bit more i guess about 750k or so per year i see the logic in it right so sometimes when we sort of don't like moves teams make we're like i don't know what they were thinking where did they kind of come to this decision from in this case it makes sense right they were bottom of the pack in expected goals high danger chances actual goal scored last year

they clearly struggled offensively, and it seems like their entire agenda revolved around, let's bring in guys who can improve our offense. Now, Brett and Montour from the blue line makes a lot of sense. Chandler Stevenson's skating and the seasons he's had in Vegas, I get it. I just feel like considering the commitments they made and also the player in Stevenson's case, specifically that they're getting here, it's really tough to justify for me. I agree with you, especially on the Stevenson front. I think the thing I like about Montour in Seattle short term,

is when this team has played well, right? And the way that this team is built with Bjork Strand and McCann and some of their wing talent, Burakowski when he's in the lineup, even Eli Tolvinen, right? The sort of shot first or the one shot scoring winger's thing, I think has been a really crucial element to their success with Daniel Sprong, still available, by the way, they should 100% pursue the reading. Bring the band back together? I don't know why they would.

I feel like there's 32 teams in the league where I'm like, I like the fit for Daniel Sprong, especially at one year for like two million or whatever. And so does Daniel Sprung. Yeah. Anyway, the thing I like is if you have done and Montour on different pairs, right, there's an element to which, you know, some of what Seattle has effectively done stylistically,

and granted they've changed coaches, and I'm sure Dan Bilesmo will introduce some different stuff as he, you know, gets his talons into how this team plays. You know, one of the things they did really effectively was you work the puck down low and then you have that fourth man up high. So usually done when the first pairs on, Justin Schultz did a bit too. But they didn't really have like a consistent dynamic like rover type to do it. Would like join the attack and support the attack down low.

And when they do, they'd have this one shot score, Tolvinen, Bjork Strand, Burakovsky, McCann, pivot up high and then you get these awesome perimeter shots. So it's like a point shot, except it's a point shot being taken by a guy who's way better in terms of actually finishing than any defender you'll find. I like that they'll be able to potentially do that and play that sort of consistent style over 25 minutes each now, like or 50 combined minutes as opposed to just having those done Larson minutes and maybe occasionally Schultz would jump in, you know, in previous years. So I,

I think it makes sense. I don't really understand the Stevenson fit. I really struggle with it. His speed has diminished. Maybe they're thinking that he can play some center for them. I guess they have some pretty good defensive wingers. I mean, you know, Eberley is a good two-way winger, and McCann is too, and Bjork Strand is too,

but none of them are Mark Stone, and we all know that. I don't know. Well, that one I struggle with more. The Montour fit, to me at least fits within the normal, bounds of, yeah, it's too much for too long, but you can see the vision. You got better. Yeah. Short term.

Yeah. Ron Francis, I believe after the signings, right, he had like that press conference, and he's like, this is a great day for Crack and hockey because it shows that players want to come here and play it. It's like, ah, if you give anyone $40 to $50 million and they'll certainly come to your team. I think we already probably knew that, especially in Stevenson's case where I don't know. I mean, maybe you disagree with this because like the Canucks were linked to them, obviously not at this price.

I think teams were probably interested because the center market was so shallow in free agency. Yeah, the connects were in, but I never thought they were inner circle in. I thought they had some level of interest. Yes. I mean, listen, like at his prime, and a couple years ago, I thought he was a very, not useful as underselling it. Like, he was a good player. The issue is, yeah, he showed so much to Klein last year, particularly in underlying stuff that drives all of a success, which is skating in transition work. He completely fell off the map as a puck carrier, as a guy entering the zone with possession.

his passing metrics off those entries all fell off. And that's highly alarming for a guy who's 30, whose game revolves entirely around that and who was in a perfect situation with Stone getting every puck off the wall to him in space. All of a sudden, you're removing essentially every single thing that made him so effective and asking him to be a $6.25 million guy for seven more years

into his mid-30s. I just, that bet is just unfathomable, in my opinion. I agree. It's too bad, though, because he has been a $6.2 million player. Yes. Like, make no mistake, right? This deal is worth criticizing based on what it looks like going forward. But the idea, like, people will start to say stuff like, oh, he was never worth $6 million player.

But he's been one of the best values in hockey. Like, he was a top 10, five on five point producer in the league among NHL centermen over the last three, four years, right? Like, he's been excellent, sensational for Vegas. It's just, I don't like the bet going forward for them. Was there any injury? Is there any cause for optimism that it might have been a blip? It might have been banged up. I don't know.

I feel like everyone on that Golden Knight's team last year was. At some point, it's tough to kind of decipher. I think there was also a bit of preparation in this, in the sense that, like, heading into this year, I agree with you that they're going to use that Dunlarsin pairing. In the past couple of years, we've seen that maybe it'll change with a new coach. I doubt it, though, that they're going to lean on them heavily for a lot of the tuffs, right? Like, they're going to use that pair as kind of a matchup pair.

And then they're essentially going to try to replicate the success Montreter had in Florida in the sense that they're going to play them with like a big, rangy, more defensively oriented partner in Alexiak in this case, kind of like he was playing with Nicola in Florida. On a second pair where he'll have a bit more cushion to explore offensively, and then it gives them right shot insulation because Adam Larson is a UFA next summer,

and so I get it. He can kind of like step in and fill a roll there. I get all that. The Stevenson one, similarly, Yanni Gord is expiring after this season, right? And it's kind of a bit of a bridge for them where it's like... And Yanny Gord might have fallen off more than Chandler Stevenson last year.

Like, he did, but also environment-wise, it's tough. Like, I feel like his form was concerning. Don't you think he's a player, though, that if he was competing for a Stanley Cup, there is more juice to squeeze there? I mean, he might have just physically fallen off the map. I hope so. I love the player. Yeah.

He is 32 and plays a physically, a max effort guy. Yeah, exactly. He plays a physically assertive style. Like, I'm just saying, I'm not, I'm not sure. I'm sure that there's a lot of contenders that will have a lot. of pro scouts watching this guy closely if the cracken aren't in the playoff mix next season and wondering about whether or not he can be a key piece for them right you'd be it would be malpractice not to investigate whether or not your theory that he can bounce back is is true or not but i look at

him and think uh i'm not sure i don't know yet yeah i want to watch a lot of crackin next year before i make up my mind well it seems like like it was an organizational need for them because they went out and despite our questions about it, right? They spent all this money on these two guys that theoretically helped them offensively. They spend what the eighth overall pick on Berkeley Cadden, who's like one of the most pure offense. So sick. Offensively minded prospects we had in this year's draft.

So like I like that from that perspective. They clearly just as an organization needed an infusion of high-level skill. Even at the fringes, right? Like Ben Myers is a guy I like. By the way, I love Josh Moherra. Josh Moherer is a guy I like, I was about to say. He can ball. He's sick.

Yeah. Um, yeah, like, so, you know, good competition for Riker Evans at training camp, but I, you know, I like the stuff at the fringes. I like how they draft. I like how they, you know, look to find value. But the big picture stuff, I can't get over. Like dating back to the expansion draft when they, when we were outraged that they didn't select Kevin Stenland, a take that we thought was like, we were like laughing about having a take like that. But actually kind of aged well. I was, I was genuinely upset.

I know. It didn't make sense. I was like, Gavin Beirut, are you kidding me? Their approach to the expansion draft of punting the power in a variety of instances to preserve money to chase goalies and over the hill players in free agency was mind-boggling. It made zero sense. And people say stuff like, well, you know, GMs learned from the last time. It's like you came in with unlimited cap space and you only needed to spend X amount

to satisfy the conditions of expansion. And, like, just because they learned over the course of a 48-hour roster freeze doesn't mean that the opportunities weren't massive to wait teams out. You know, like, I'll never understand their approach through to the expansion draft and sort of everything that's come next to me feels like a team that you mentioned Katten 8th overall. And it's like they have to swing for upside like that because this team looks to me, to be one of those clubs that's locked into not good enough to make noise, not bad enough to get the type of player that might help them make noise.

Unless Maddie Baneers levels up massively, and Shane Wright has a big breakout season, which if both of those things hit, there's an upside case for the Cracken, but they really need both of those things to hit. Well, in those offensive difference makers are the guys that are tough to find. I think it is encouraging from like an organizational health perspective that this Coachella Valley team made it to back-to-back,

Calder Cups, especially given how little time they've had relatively to build up a system, right? The fact that they already had that success is encouraging. Okay, here's the thing for you. So every year, the team wins the cup, and then we all try to figure out what the lessons were from it and kind of what that means for the league and how the league's going to adapt it, right? I think with this Panthers team, much like other past cup champions, but I feel like especially so this year, there's such a Roershack test candidate where you can look at them and you can kind of fit whatever narrative you want in terms of what drove their success and what we can learn from

them right i thought the way teams acted as an overarching theme so far this off season is interesting because maybe we were already heading in that direction but it feels like we really steered extremely so in the direction of teams valuing really fourth liners i was going to say bottom six guys but really it feels like fourth liners who can play fast and hit like play with pace and be like physical, functionally at least, and having no time really for undersized puck movers who aren't like legitimate stars that are already established, right? Like much preferring guys who box out and sort of these throwback defensemen. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I just feel like if you're kind of taking lessons from what teams did and the way they acted, that seems very clear,

right? Because in a lot of instances, they were like either actively getting rid of those guys or showing no interest in them on the free agent market and get. giving out legitimate financial investments in term to these guys where people like you and I would probably look at it and be like, I can't believe that's what that guy got. Yeah, I mean, the Kings, the Fogel Edmondson of it all felt like a- I'm really just describing the Kings' Pregency approach here with both of these. No, but I think you're right. Like around the league, I think we saw a variety of moves, you know, in terms of even in terms

of like who, just in terms of who was valued, who actually carried value. You know, another player type that didn't have a lot of. value was if you're not, I guess with the exception of Sean Monaghan, if you don't have a ton of pace, if you don't have a ton of pace, it seemed like you're, you better be, you better be a guy who's had 60 points because otherwise you're going to be in trouble. Teams are getting very tools oriented. Yes. Which is interesting to me because I would argue the one team that has actively not been

so are the Dallas Stars, especially in their draft approach, right? about like a Wyatt Johnston, you go on down the line, Stancoven. I mean, Stankovina, at least can like pay with pace, but he's not necessarily like big or fast necessarily. Exactly. That was the concern. And so if they're to win a cup here soon, I wonder if we'll see a paradigm shift back into that direction or if teams will just then talk themselves into like, well, like if they win

the cup this year, he'll be like, well, they added it a Liyahibushkin. So, I mean. What's interesting is what we're seeing at the top end, you know, like you're talking about if you're not one of those elite elite players, you better be able to box out. What's interesting is what we've seen across the board from the elite elite players, from the McCar, Hayskinin, Hughes, Milia,

and it's happened literally almost the exact same time with McCar just being one year ahead, is the move to pair them with the sorts of defenders that seem to be undervalued in the marketplace. Now, granted, a lot of the players we're talking about, Sean Walker is not the player that Devon Taves is, or that Thomas Harley is, or that Philipronic is. But he's closer to that class of player than Joel Edmondson, right? And so it's like, at the same time that we're learning this lesson about what enables the best defensemen to make maximum impact, we're also devaluing teams taking shots on that player type that might be able to cash in if you're lucky.

enough, blessed enough to land one of those true difference-making defenders, which I find confusing. I guess my question for you here, would I be curious to get your take on is, how much of this is connected to the swing away from possession hockey? To like the new, more direct, attack off the rush, save your shots to only shoot in the highest leverage, most efficient opportunities, you know, effectively like the high shooting percentage era that we've sort of moved into, moving away from whether you want to call it the fixed percentage era or the Coursierra, how much of this is an evolution of the game that actually is a reasonable response? You don't care as much about the undersized sort of defender that helps you out shoot your

opponent. What you care about is how efficient those shots are. I think that makes sense because I feel like we've almost bumped into a potential like limitation in terms of what you can do in open ice because everyone is getting so good at skating now and tactically there's never been more emphasis placed on like preparation and game planning and like information being accessible to everyone that there's just no more space on the ice anymore right like I was talking to someone the other day and they're like it's not like back in the day or you could just kind of like willy-nilly skate up the ice back and forth it's like now especially in the playoffs when you get when you just get rid of all the riffraff and it's just

good teams who are like prepping for you on every single night everything needs to be so deliberate in that sense and there's no space. So it makes sense that you're not going to try to carry the puck as much anymore. You're doing what the Oilers really did and had success with against Florida, which was like setting up an anchor in the neutral zone, kind of dumping the puck out in terms of those aerials and then trying to win battles in the neutral zone to then advance the puck as opposed to actually going from point A to point B directly. And so it makes sense that you probably would need a certain level of physicality then to win

a higher percentage of these battles, right? There's going to be players who aren't big or fast that are just smart and positionally sound that can kind of replicate a lot of that. But I see why teams are doing it. Even a team like the Devils, which is one of the more, I'd argue, like, progressive, analytical-minded organizations right now. Look at what they did. They wanted to get harder on the back end.

They brought, well, yeah, they brought in Dylan. They brought in Kovacev. They brought in Kovic. They brought in Pesci. They spent their 10th pick on a giant defenseman. They spent their 10th pick on a giant defenseman. Yep. right um then they bring in like nason uh they trade for paul carter and get alexander holz out instead

i'm a big paul carter guy by the way i thought that was one of the most misunderstood you can tell people don't watch enough devil's hockey by the people who just like know that holts had draft pedigree reminded me a little bit of the excitement in the vancouver market when vancouver acquired a vitali kratsov whose name's not really vatali but i just can never shake it yeah as like what i think his name is um i like codder is more useful than holts i don't know what else he is and he is and he's cheap for a couple years. My quibble with it is purely on what they did in the meantime

on a significantly smaller scale, but similar to what the Jets have done with Nick Eilers, where it's like you submarine a player's value internally to a point where then you wind up trading them for cents and a dollar and being like, well, that player is actually not worth that much. It's like, you kind of created that market though.

I think there was certainly a scenario where if they had utilized them more responsibly and hadn't actively talked poor about him in the media along the way, they probably could have gotten more. I think that's fair. Like, I think that's a fair thing to say. I think there's certainly teams around the league that would have been like,

well, this guy scored 25 goals, even if it was shooting percentage inflated or usage driven. Yeah. That's just the way it works. It's also just important to like time it right. Yes. If you had concerns about him after he was lighting up, lighting it up in Utica, it's like that's the time to deal him.

Yes. You know, like you would have gotten more than than they got now. Now, with all that being said, we'll talk more about Vegas in a second here. I actually don't mind it from their perspective. No, because logistically, we're going to talk about it. I just think people misunderstood the sort of value that he should have.

It was, I think there was some sticker shock, right? Because it was like, all right, Akir Shmead's going to Vegas first, and it's like a third in Paul Carter and Holt is going. I think like the way the information was relayed almost.

That happens. Yeah, that happens. So a team that followed this trend and a team that has been very tools oriented for a while now, as you've been documenting, is the Vancouver Canucks.

and I guess like a Danton Hayden might not necessarily be so he kind of goes the other way where he's just a good hockey player I think I was thinking about it and I was thinking about who to compare him to for someone who doesn't have a really good sense of Heinen and I was thinking I feel like he is um like a poor man's Henrique. You know what I mean? Like he's kind of like he's got the versatility and like the main attribute there

is that he can hang. You know what I mean? Like he can play in your, he can play on that sort of in a second line role. And he's not driving, but he doesn't hurt you. Right. You know what I mean?

He, he can hold up. And that's hugely valuable. Like people, I think that's basically what Henrique does too. It's like he doesn't have a, there's not like huge tools or huge skill sets, but at the end of the day,

if he's in your top nine, even when you get into like the hard time of year, the playoffs or whatever, you're not going to see him on the ice for a shift and be like, and like bracing the way you do with some guys who can't hang in those moments. Yeah. But he's also one of those players that slips through the cracks year over year because there's no easily definable trait necessarily for you to latch on and be like,

well, this is the justification for why we're going to value him on a three-year deal. And so I know that he got that one deal once and then he wound up going, I think, from Pittsburgh to Anaheim, right, when they kind of cap dumped him. Like he's bounced around a little bit. He keeps getting opportunities from teams, but they're always like, yeah, Yeah, we'll take him. And then he winds up solidifying a role further up than they might have initially imagined because he's a good player. Yeah, but then it doesn't translate into the two years.

And then in the office is in there like, all right, well, we'll find someone who's faster or someone who's more physical or someone who's bigger or has a better shot. And it's like he does all that stuff. And those players are always not as good. Exactly. And so I really like that bet from them. But otherwise, right? Like they continue the trend of valuing really, especially tall defensemen. Yeah.

Like Rick Talk, it really seems to have a type there. And he's gotten success. Like their defensive results last year were really good. good. So I think that makes sense. Nebraska's a very toolsy player, right? In terms of like just the straight line north-south speed and the way he attacks

offensively. So the Canucks were a team that sort of follow this trend. I think that's a good segue for us to talk about them a little bit. I'd throw Sherwood in there too. I mean slightly lower end, but you know, that's another guy who's got the speed and maybe plays with more consistent identity

than a guy like Sam Lafferty even though he's shorter. Well, if this show had production value, right now we would do one of those like it'll be like a sound effect and then it would be like reminiscing about the time you and I were sitting on a couch in palm springs just randomly talking about kefer sherwood for five minutes during the Stanley Cup final breakdown for some reason where you were like I love this guy for the oilers for example and then it'll just be you talking about key for surewood and uh and we spent an irrational amount of time talking about him kefer sherwood's 100% another one of my guys yeah he'll be on my guy list uh preview in

september yeah next year um I like to the brusk fit because I I think, especially if you're viewing it through the perspective of he's essentially taking Ilya McAev's spot on this Jebchart. Except I think Heinen is. I would say Hinen's the McKayev replacement. And Debrusk is the Kuzmenko replacement, who never was. Right. That's how I would think of it.

I guess just financially, though, right? Because they paid such a modest price to get off the $4 million, they owed McAev. Right? Like, it was stunning to me that that's all it took. Wild. It was like a less than two round drop in a 2027 draft. Yeah, I'd like to see them. wriggle out of this one.

Yeah. Ah, nevertheless. And so they were able to do that, and then they used that $4 million essentially to be able to go out and spend what it took to bring in Debrusk, right? Now, I think there's a misunderstanding of what he is as a player, because I initially saw a lot of, this is the Elias Pedersen team. And I guess that's what you're referencing there, where, like, he won't be the guy who takes McAev's spot next to Pedersen. He might initially, the daily face off depth chart for them, suggests he will. They're going to try it. They're going to try.

They're going to realize, and I say this lovingly. He, his, not the smartest player offensively, which is fine because he plays such a direct north-south game. But I think for Pedersen, he needs someone who's going to be able to think the game at a bit of a more nuanced level. And that's not really what DeBrasse does. Whereas with Miller, I think he'll thrive because they'll just, they'll just go north. Yeah.

And so I think he's going to be great there. Predictability is everything. Yes. For complimenting J.T. Miller, Tanner Pearson once described it to me as stupid smart hockey. You play stupid smart hockey and you'll have success with Miller and Bessler. That was his formulation. And, you know, I'll always remember it because I love the phrase, obviously, but stupid smart hockey. Like Jake DeBrusk is made to excel playing stupid smart hockey. Yeah. I guess my concern though is, and maybe if you feel like Hinen is going to fit this spot, I feel like

they haven't addressed one of the biggest needs heading into this off season, which was finding a running mate for Lys Patterson. If the Braske isn't going to be that player, they just committed that money to. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a thought internally that they might see what Sherwood can do there. Hoaglander, obviously, is a running mate that they've used there in the past. But yeah, I think that's fair comment. So I have a lot of reactions to this, all of them complicated. One is, I do think Hoaglander, Patterson is a duo that,

those players are comfortable with. The other is I do think there's some school of thought that a guy like Sherwood who plays on the edge and can maybe bring a little bit of that policing dynamic. Might be a nice thing to have on Pedersen's wing. And then the final one is for some reason, Joshua and Garland, who are Vancouver's best set of play driving wingers, like together as a duo.

And, you know, I'd mostly assign credit to Garland for doing the heavy lifting in terms of driving for that duo. but I also have seen Garland's struggle to get the sort of deployment commensurate with his clear impact for years and years. And for whatever reason, you play him with Joshua and all of a sudden Rick Talk, it's like, you're my second line in the playoffs. So I don't think they could do it without one another. I do think there is a meaningful symbiosis between them. For whatever reason, they played 12 minutes with Pedersen last year. It's just like, I really do want to see that they worked so well with.

Bluger. They worked so well with Souter. They worked so well with Miller. And so why not take your best play driving centerman and a great one shot scorer and combine him with, you know, a guy who's just going to bang and crash at the net and has pretty good hands in tight in Dakota Joshua and your best five on five playmaker, which is Connor Garland. I mean, like, what doesn't make sense about that? I really want to see that given a lengthy look next season. I want to see that given a lengthy look next season more than I want to see like Debrusk shoehorned into that role

because I do think it'll work. I mean Pedersen did have success with Lafferty. He did have success with Debrusk. There's this school or train of thought in Vancouver anyway. People will say stuff like, oh, why can't you're $11.6 million dollar center make players better? Just ignoring that Sam Lafferty had like a career

high 13 goals last year. Right. That Ilya McKay have like generally until the last 60 games looked competent offensively during his time in Vancouver, ignoring the 40-goal season that Andre Kuzmenko had, right? I mean, he's done a lot of elevating

despite what, you know, the boomer set might have you think. And I do think it can work with DeBresk, but I also do think if you designed the optimal left winger for the Miller-Besser duo in a lab, I feel like it would look an awful lot like Jake DeBresk.

Yes, I guess one of my, what I find interesting about their approach is and I'm sure I'm I'd be curious to know like what the mindset heading in was and whether they just wound up going this way and kind of pivoting as it went along was in the aggregate I don't necessarily mind the Myers contract the forbert edition the Vinni Day or N a addition the issue is that in the aggregate you put it all together and you wound up spending 6.5 million total on the cap next year or I guess the next two years or no forbert's only one year but there's two years yeah Myers three for next year six

point five million on three players that don't have very much puck moving ability and are going to leave you in a spot once again where you're going to be very relying on your top pair. You got a lump Carson Sussi in there too because he's a he's a good player though. For sure he is. He's a really good player. He provides utility like this very easily definable in a different way and makes sense why they would like him but if you're going to rely on that guy on your second pair I just think you need more puck moving juice and I would have much rather like this happened with Dallas. as well. And this is one of my quibbles with this approach. The volume tactic of like, we're just going to add three guys for 6.5 million.

I would much rather you just spend $5 million on a really good player. And then the league minimum on like two HL defensemen that can play on the third pair. I just don't understand this approach of like bringing in a bunch of guys that don't actually help you that much. Yeah. And so balance matters. Like, for example, up front, I think it's a different equation, right? If you're looking at Vancouver and assessing their chances next season, would you prefer that they'd added Stephen Stamcoast at 8 or Debrusk plus Sherwood plus Heinen? Right?

Like having that balance matters up front. But I wonder if it's perhaps overdone on the back end. You know what I mean? Where like at the end of the day, when you get into the heaviest minutes of the season and it matters the most. you're playing four guys for the most part, and then you've got a couple sort of specialists. Now, I was pretty shocked, I think, by just how much the Canucks doubled down on,

you know, we spent a lot of time last year talking about, which is this easily identifiable set of principles with which they play, right? And, you know, they need speed on the wings, so they prioritize getting fast on the wings. right. Sherwood can move, can fly. Heinzins fast, uh, de Brusks really fast. And, you know,

part of the reason that they do this is they rely on wingers to set up this neutral zone wedge that sort of tries to take away the center of the ice, forcing, uh, entries along the wall. And then when you get there, there is a giant body standing in your way, which makes it incredibly difficult to, like one thing I like about Vancouver going in on size is it's not just that, their defensive scheme relies on playing in zone and making life difficult in terms of getting to the gritty areas of the ice or the meat of the ice. The way they play also leverages that size to make it very difficult to gain the zone against them.

And so given how intelligently and thoughtfully Vancouver uses, you know, the thicket of trees on their back end, I understand why they're doubling down on it. But, and especially because it's done in concert with the speed on the wall thing, but I agree with you that like, you might even including Quinn Hughes, who is a magician, where would you rate Vancouver's top six defenders and you throw in no jewels, top seven defenders, um, on a list of like most puck skills on the back end. in the NHL, like bottom 10 for sure, right? It's, I think, probably league worse for, like, teams that are trying to win. Okay, yeah.

Right? Like, I don't know, I can't, off the top of my head, I'd have to do more homework on this, but I can't really think of a team that's like a playoff team that has aspirations of making it to a conference final at least. With less support. That has less cumulative. Now, you could argue that just because Quinn Hughes is going to play so many minutes and it handles such a lion's share of that responsibility, that it moves them up.

Except that his minutes went down in the. the playoffs. Right. So, you know, if they were going to Duncan Keith, he uses minutes in the playoffs, it would feel different to me, but it feels like Vancouver wants to play their size, even in the biggest moments. So I think my enthusiasm for that gets tempered a little bit. It's tempered. Now, that's it. Forbert was viewed by the club as an affordable one-for-one replacement for Ian Cole, and I have no problem with that bet. Perfectly reasonable. I think forbert's got some deceptive puck skills. I don't think he's as like good. at that like hesitation first pass.

Like I think Ian Cole is actually a pretty underrated puck mover. I think he's got actual offensive intelligence, even if he's never going to be a point producer himself. I think Forbert is in a slightly different category on that end, but I still think Forbert's got some of that in his game. Nonetheless, Forbert was a one-for-one Ian Cole replacement done early in the day. I mean, all he has to do is not score repeatedly on his own team and he's already upgrade. I mean, Cole was

Cole was so cut up and like Yes, of course. There's crucial context. Yeah. He was great in the Nashville series. And then he gets cut and then he wasn't the same guy and it was costly. Anyway,

fair point. I don't know why I'm so defensive of this guy. It's just a throw-in joke. I know, I'm like, I dare you. Well, actually me. No, let's go shit by ship, bud.

I think the DeHarnay thing came about later, right? And, you know, the Oilers deciding to move on from DeHarnay signing Josh Brown with more term but for less cap money. Well, they wanted, I saw someone make this joke. I think it was on the P.D.O. Guessler's what I forget. Everything blend together on July 1st. But they just wanted the social experiment of having the best player on the world and the worst player in the world. His numbers are aggressively bad I know, I know, but Josh Brown

Josh Brown's a great guy And that one I'll take personal offense to I'm not saying, I would just say the worst guy in the world How dare you besmirge He's amongst NHLers Not a wreck league guys All good What's the gap between him and DeHarnay?

Darnay is pretty good I mean he was, I think he was hurt Especially in the playoffs And he just couldn't really move as much And that's why he lost his spot I think he was He's never gonna like be Kail McCar But I thought he moved much better

earlier in the year. And then towards like in the playoffs, he just looked kind of glacial. Yeah. And so that's why he lost his spot. I don't think that was a representation of what he is. I think he's a useful player. Yeah, me too. Um, he took a step this past year from like the Vegas series two years ago where he just got played off the ice. Yeah. He wasn't that player in the regular season last year. I thought he was actually quite serviceable.

Yeah. He was playing with the best third pair defensemen in the world, Brett Kulak. So yeah, maybe that kind of clouds my judgment a little bit. Brett Kulak will make a lot of partners some money. He will. Anyway, the so I, Dharney, I think was a surprise to them that he was available. I think there was always an assumption that he'd return to Edmonton.

And I think when he hit the market, I don't think the team was like necessarily, not, not like that they weren't ready for it, just that I don't think they thought they, they, that he would be a consideration the way he was. And late in the day,

they, uh, were able to get that deal done. That deal was, um, you know, a product of sort of, uh,

the pro scouting staff and Adam foot in particular, identifying him as like a project player that they thought they thought they could get more out of. So he's paid and signed to be a third pair guy. But I think the organization sees the guy who's played like 100 games in the NHL and has a lot of tools and moves pretty well for a guy's size and for sure

is an exceptional penalty killer and that maybe there's more that they can leverage with some coaching in addition to the way that they play the game. Now, all of this said, I don't think the Canucks would tell you confidently. Like if you were to say,

do you have enough puck moving outside your top pair. Key hockey operations leadership would say, well, we're not sure. Right? We're not sure. De Harnay is a project that fits so well with what we want to be that we're going to give it a shot and we're going to see what we have. And so the fact that they're approaching this thoughtfully and then going about building

their team with at least a hint of skepticism, at least with an understanding that ultimately, hey, you know what? we'd eventually like to get to the point where we can bring in another, you know, two, three defensemen, right? Ideally, a right-handed two-three defensemen who could potentially play with Quinn Hughes so that we could have a heronic suzy second pair so that we had more, you know, get up and go on the back end and aggregate. You know, I think that's like aspirational. That's where they'd like to go to. But they think DeHarnay is a unique player and a unique project and a guy who fits how they want to do things so well. that I think they're going to give it a few months.

Now, that's not to say that they don't add another defenseman at some point this summer. They still have about $3.5 million in cap flexibility. I think that'll be something they prioritize if the right opportunity presents itself, although they'd love to not use LTI at all this season, which they're currently set up to potentially do. But, you know, this is not like a finished product defensive group. And I think while the club has definitely built a back end that I'm not confident. it's going to be able to get up and go consistently enough to avoid getting bogged down offensively the way they did too frequently in the playoffs.

I don't think it's a finished product and I don't think they're viewing it as something that they're like, no, our particular brew will for sure work. You know, we know it. Right. I think it's more like we believe in the talent of this player and we believe in our structure and we're going to give it some time to see if we can make it work. Well, on that note, Scuba Steve posted in the PDOGas Discord saying, I listened to the full two-part review yesterday, and there was no Bruins talk,

and I'm disappointed. We gave you some Derek Forebird breakdowns right here. So you can't say we didn't talk Bruins-ins-related topics. If you want me to go in on Zadorov and... No, no, it's fine. We'll have plenty of time to do that. We way overshot our break here. So we're going to go to break right now, and then when we come back, we'll jump back in and

we'll finish up by talking about some time. 2025 Stanley Cup odds and kind of frame it through that lens. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockeyedio cast with Thomas Drans. We're talking in the Pacific Division takes, but also now let's do some 2025 standing up odds. You've got them out in front of you here. Edmonton has jumped up to the very preliminary cup favorite.

They should be favored by more. Well, they were very close to winning this past year, and then they got better. This is the best forward group since the late 90s Detroit Red Wings. And the late 90s, Detroit Red Wings didn't have Connor McDavid. That Avs group that won the Cup two years ago was freakishly good. Like, while Berkowski was healthy. And Comfer. But then Berkowski, Cadry, along with Landis Gogginon and Randon, and that was.

Yeah, that was sick. Pretty nuts. Also, the lightning team, at their best with, like, Gord and Coleman. And then, I guess Stamcoast was kind of in and out at that point. Yeah. Like, the, he didn't, he. But, like, Coloren, Stocherov point.

I mean, that had a pretty, and Cerelli. But, I mean, we're looking at an Oilers team that's going to have, like, two middle six guys on their fourth line. Yeah, I'm very curious to see what they do with it. I mean, we're talking, like, Brown, Yannmark and Henrique, probably as a fourth line. Well, that's probably the third line, right?

I don't think so. Well, they were using them as such in the, in the playoff run. Yeah, no, I know, but I don't, I honestly don't at this point. Probably won't for the entirety of the regular season. I don't think it is. Like, I think your third line's going to have, I mean, depending, it's either going to have McLeod Holloway and, you know, Skinner or another clear top six caliber guy. Or, you know, or you're going to split Holloway and McLeod, and it's going to have two

top six caliber guys. Like it's, yeah, I mean, if they're able to turn, if they're able to turn Kane's cap hit into a CC upgrade,

that would be amazing. Then obviously, I think that's the final product here and they have time to do so because the point I keep making is I don't really care what these teams look like. For like the cop contenders

that I feel good about, I don't care what they look like on July 4th. I care what they look like in April. Yep. And so I'm dead on. Everyone's so preoccupied

with like filling out their depth chart and using every single possible cap dollar to have a team right now. and it's like, doesn't really matter. No. I guess you can sell hype to your fans, but you have the Carmen David on your team. It doesn't matter.

I think they'll be hyped regardless. They should be. So obviously love what they did. So they're the cup favorite. Rattle off some of the sort of consolidated rankings here for us. So we can go through them a little bit. Yeah, I mean, look, let's do it in segments because that way if we go team by team, you and me, we're going to.

This is going to be like an eight-hour show. We're going to start at the bottom and talk about the Calgary Flames for 45 minutes. Like, let's not do that. So here, I'm going to call inner circle contenders, are 15 to 1 odds or less. Okay? And that includes Edmonton, Florida,

Dallas, the New Jersey Devils, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Colorado Avalanche, the New York Rangers and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Okay. Public team Toronto Maple Leafs,

come on. Yes. Yeah. They don't belong up there. There's at least a couple teams that I didn't mention who should have shorter odds to win the Stanley Cup,

I think, at this moment. That said, if you have Austin Matthews, I think you do belong in the top fit. top half anyway. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, what stands out to me there, to be totally honest with you, is how chalky that is,

with the exception of the New Jersey Devils. Like all of those teams except the New Jersey Devils made the playoffs. Most of them went deep into the playoffs, like at least one around, right? With sort of the exception of the Maple Leafs, who at least made it to Game 7 overtime. Yep. So really, I think one thing that I take away immediately from that inner circle contender tier is the market really likes what the New Jersey Devils did in general to add some heft and weight to their team. I would argue that, I mean, obviously they needed to do something, but I would argue that very minimal moves still would have resulted in them being quite high. Just because I feel like everyone would have looked at their season and what they had to do something.

done with the context of the previous year and been like, well, it was an unfortunate year. A bunch of guys got banged up. This wasn't a representation of what they are as a team. If they have a healthy version of Jack Hughes back and Dougie Hamilton as well, we're going to like them. So I feel like it would have already been trending in that direction. Maybe they wouldn't have been quite as high otherwise. But obviously, we like the additions that they made factoring in Markstrom as well,

which feels like it was from a different offseason because it happened so far ago, so long ago. But yeah, that makes a lot of sense. I was telling you that I feel like the only reservation that I have on the Panthers really is that it's just really hard to string together back-to-back seasons in this NHL. How about back-to-back-to-back trips to the finals? True.

I mean, you're right. They played a lot of hockey. An extra half-season. And like a very demanding style as well. Now the Tampa Bay Lightning did it. Yeah. Right? And, well, I mean, the Nate Schmidt ad is a nice one for them.

I mean, relatively speaking, I think he's a pretty flawed player in terms of the turnovers and on and on. Yeah, I'm in that system. I think I'll be fine. Exactly. The Panthers are so good at just turning. And then I guess the only other reservation I'd have is I don't know what they look like in 12 months. You know what I mean?

Or I don't know what they look like by September. We know how. Don't we feel like that's exciting? Like based on a track record of Bill Zeta right now, I would argue that the fact that they have flexibility to go a couple different directions with trades. Is a reason to buy their. It's like, they could get even better. Yeah. maybe they're in for the reverse tempo where like you make three straight cup finals but you win the latter two as opposed to losing the last one right but um yeah i mean the the panthers to me are maybe the most interesting story to monitor over the balance of the summer just because i i think there's a real trend in so much of bill zito's activity we talked about it right after they won the cup uh on this very uh program where the way that they've managed to pay guys for

for their 20s and duck paying the wrong ones for their 30s unless it's Gustav Worsling and he takes a preposterously team friendly haircut, I think is a model for everybody, right, in this age of bridge deals, even the Anton Lundell deal recently, right? Yep. I mean, Florida does not do bridges, period. It's very flat. In the land of the intercoastal. They cross no bodies of water.

In the land of the intercoastal, there are no bridges. Florida Panthers. And that's the way it should be, by the way. More teams should be looking at the sort of contractual intelligence of how the Panthers have dealt with their own players because I think it's a key driver of their success. So were the halves in that top tier? They were.

They're 14 to 1 tied with the Carolina hurricanes. And I think that's probably right. They feel pretty flawed at this point. They feel pretty, feel like they're going to need. that said, I've liked some of what they've done at the margins, Brandstrom in particular, getting Duran done again too, I thought was absolutely essential for them.

And then lumping in a middle stats extension as well, like getting a reasonable number. But they're going to have to move at least another guy, right? Well, they're in a bit of a holding pattern right now, and the reason why they were operating so much on the margins was they essentially have, what, 13 plus million in like uncertainty with Nachushkin and Landiscaud, and like not knowing whether that's money they can use right now for this

season or whether it's something they're going to have to account for now yeah yeah i believe what like especially with a chushkin uh situation like they're accruing cap space along the way i believe so that'll be something they can utilize regardless um i don't know i assume either like i wish this wasn't the case because i love the guy and he was such a great player anything you get from lancke at this point is foul money in my opinion because a guy in his 30s who hasn't played in over two calendar years, like the precedence of like that guy coming back and being anything resembling his previous self seems so far-fetched to me. I'd love to be wrong there. I think either Natushkin comes back and is an impact player or he doesn't come back and you have

a rather significant amount of cap space to improve. So I feel like this Avs team, like looking at their depth chart right now isn't a reflection of what that team is going to look like when games actually matter. They have enough talent to get through the regular season regardless. I loved their approach at the draft, too, where, you know, they don't care at all, right? Like, they don't care at all. They did nail their pick in 2023. What's that gentleman's name? The big O HL Center.

Cal Ritchie. People love that guy. Yeah. But I loved trading down, getting a 2025 second that you know is going to just be a trade chip for them. Like, there's no very remote possibility that they'll ever use that pick. And then selecting the 21-year-old goaltender who won the Gagarin Cup as like the, literally the only guy in the draft other than maybe Maclin Celebrini and maybe Demadov who has

oh, Demadov's not even coming over. So just Mattel. What about William? What about William? You think William can play in the NHL next year? I mean, there's not much for him to do at the college level anymore. Put it this way. There's not a long list of guys that could be an NHL impact player. Especially at that part. Yeah, of course. There's no one at that point.

But I thought to manage the draft that way was extremely thoughtful, I thought, for a team in their shoes. Yeah, for a thoughtful organization. I'm not surprised by that. Yeah, I like what they did there. Okay. So any quick hitting hurricane's thoughts?

Because they also are in that tier. And they... Well, don't you feel... So the lesson of... The lesson of Sabromatrix, the original lesson of like applying data to sports analysis, right? Wasn't to, at least in baseball. It wasn't to build like the sickest possible OPS team, right?

Like it was to... think about things differently, right? And when I think about the hurricanes and their moves over the course of this off season, um, you know, obviously, I'm sure the Gensel thing stings. Yeah, like that would have been a huge ad for him. He was at a hundred point pace, uh, after the trade. But where you talked about the emphasis on boxouts and size on the back end, the hurricanes were just like, okay, that's fine.

This is where the market's going. we're going to sign Sean Walker for 3.6 million to replace. And cost is bare for 3.2. Right. So they were like happy to be the team that zigged when everyone zagged. Yes. And that's like the real. At the end of the day,

that's more than anything what it's about. Right. Like that's what progressive thinking in sports kind of entails is like finding value where the market is not. And I just thought the hurricanes kind of did that to a T. you know, replacing Gensel with Jack Roselvic, that makes me a little nervous.

Yeah, but... But they have so much flexibility in the way of, like, prospects and desirable stuff to rebuilding teams that they can swing another Gensel-like trade at the deadline. It's a $61 million gap. They're going to add a top-line player

at some point. 100%. They're going to add two. They might even, with a NACIS trade, potentially, right? Because they need to pay both... They're going to pay Jarvis,

obviously. And then I think they're going to keep NACIS. You think so? I do. Like, I mean, that's what I would do in their shoes unless something presents itself that's can't miss. Yeah. You know, like, unless there's a can't miss deal. But I mean, if you sign NACIS at this point.

What about an annealer swap? Yeah, I mean, that would be amazing. Yeah. But if you, yeah, that, I mean, that would be incredible. But I just feel like they're, they're either going to get value or they're not going to do it. Yeah. You know, and from what, like, you're not going to see a NACIS for spare parts type deal. are going to have a huge price in mind.

So I'm really curious to see exactly how they go about filling out this roster. But yeah, they're not a finished product by any means. And I think I really liked the way they thought about and approached what I'm sure was a challenging offseason given the fact that they couldn't get Gensel done despite sort of meeting is ask. Any other notes on the teams in this tier? Do you want to go to the next one? Let's go the next tier. So this next tier is teams from 16 to 1. and let's go it through 26 to 1.

Okay. And this will give us a nice little bumper crop that includes the Vegas Golden Knights at 17 to 1. The Boston Bruins at 19 to 1. The Predators also at 19 to 1. Big lift after they added, you know, a bunch of finishing talent, Marsha, so. Well, when you spend a bunch of money in free agency,

especially on big name guys, like the market will react that way. For sure. The Canucks 21 to 21. The LA Kings 23 to 1. The Winnipeg Jets, 23 to 1. The Winnipeg Jets 23 to 1 and the Tampa Bay Lightning 26 to 1. Now, what's interesting to me about this is Boston, Nashville, and Vancouver were, when these lines opened, tied together. And with the Winnipeg Jets.

So those four teams were tied together. And it's like the tier of Vegas isn't going to give you longer odds when you have Swamen, Demko, Helibuck, and Soros, and Net. Vegas is just like one of those goals. this is going to cost us too much money, so we're not, we're not valuing any of these teams are better than 20 to 1. And so what I think's interesting about this is the separation, right?

Where Nashville, my guess is the market reads it as Nashville had a bunch of worker bees in a structurally sound team that punched above their weight, but they couldn't finish, and that showed in the playoffs, and now they've added the best one shot score of the last 20 years, and Jonathan Marcisoe. I thought you're going to make a joke.

The best one shot score ends Stephen's damn good. because Marshalls all scored so many goals last year. Yeah. But no, I mean, that would have been a good joke. But Stamco's the efficiency guy, right? And then Boston, I guess, added the two big names in Lindholm and Zedorov. But I don't know that I'd say Vancouver performed worse in free agency than either of those two teams. And I don't know that Winnipeg did either.

I mean, Winnipeg's free agencies, Winnipeg doesn't exactly do free agency. But, you know, my point being, I think the separation that the markets are seeing between those four teams is probably ephemeral and not, not substantive. I thought Vegas was the most interesting team you mentioned there, just because I feel like there has been an overcorrection to them losing a bunch of free agents and them losing in round one to Dallas, right? In like a very competitive seven game series

against an awesome Dallas Starz team. My argument for it is at very vital positions, they have, for my money, the best center group in the league. Yep, no question. They have one of the best defense scores in the league. league top to bottom, right? Like even on the third bear, if it's Nick Hague and Zach White Cloud, I can work with that. I think Zach White Cloud's hugely underrated. Also, they're going to make a move off of that, off of that defense score, right?

I think so. I think so. Well, no, we'll get to that in a second. But you put those two together. And I get, like, this is baking in the risk that, like, Mark Stone, it's probably a matter of when and not if he gets hurt. And when that does, they can't really, as we saw last year, replace that functionally. Like, he's such an integral part of the operation that. That cap space is not equivalent to his contributions to the team, despite people thinking that this is all part of some sort of master plan. I just like the idea that they're going to have a full off season of getting healthy, getting rested, and then integrating hurdle. And Hanofin, Hanofin was more sort of a smooth transition into the team. Hurdle was hurt when they acquired him.

And then he was playing on the wing, and he clearly looked rusty in the playoffs. I think he's going to hopefully look better and more like Tom Hodge Hurtt. at the start of the season. And so you tell me all of that with a team that's clearly going to make some sort of a big move at some point. The fact that they're lurking right now is like should be frightening.

Like Jonathan Marshall is coming out and calling them out for not giving them a competitive offer and then them just being like, I guess McCriman did say like, oh, that's not true or whatever. It couldn't be more false. But like they're just like right now sitting in some dark dingy room being like,

all right, we're going to get our revenge soon. They're going to do something. I like the gambit of whatever your mileage on Holtz and Olofson clearly flawed players, but I'd lump Brissaud in there as well. Dorofi have showed some shooting talent last year. This defensive environment and puck possession style with guys who can just take shots and turn them into goals, that makes sense, especially for like a million dollars, which is what they're paying all those guys.

Even not factoring in Mark Stone, you know, like they're going to be able to do something like hurdle, Ikel, Barbashev on the top line. Yeah. And then Carlson centering a second line, you know, assuming that Stone is not even an option. Like Carlson centering Dorofaev and, um, whomever with like a Nikwa on the third, at third line center and then Brett Houghton at fourth line center. And it's like, that's good. That's a really good basis to be able to plug in some value wingers here.

Another team that would be a perfect fit for, uh, Daniel Sprung. Yes. Yeah. Them and everyone else. I want to just point out Kings of 23 to 1 in this tier I'm out

I don't think they belong Yeah let me hit the eject button Yeah that's mispriced I mean I'd argue no team had a worse Off season I talked about this on the last show I don't necessarily need to get into

And I just hate their like organizational philosophical shift here Of like trying to become tougher to play against When you just got outclassed From a talent perspective Of the past couple years Yeah It just reflect a misunderstanding

Of what's happening And why your team is falling short And at this point their only way out of the mess of the last 12 months, because I thought they'd done a lot of smart stuff until the PLD trade went sideways on them. And I even think it was smart to hit the eject button the way they did on it, even though you take the L. But to then continue taking Ls with Fogel and, uh, the Edmondson deal.

That, that starting to become a, a bit far for me to, to, to keep defending what I, what I used to hold up as a model rebuild. But they're only way out of this. is Byfield and Brant Clark have to be so, so special now. And while I'm not like going to bet on it, and I think they're mispriced at 23 to 1, there's a chance. I would have felt more confident if they had actually made a coaching change and you could be like, all right, well, this coach might actually open things up

and try different stuff. Like, I just, it feels like they're trying to run it back and double down on something that is already holding them back and be limiting them. So let's go fringy tier or are we running out of time? I mean, we all ran way past time, but that's, Fine. Let's, this is, it's one of the final shows this season.

We're going to go along. That's a little marathon. The next tier, let's call it the, like, wild card tier, the Pretenders tier. This is 36 to 1 through 50 to 1. Okay.

And it includes the Ottawa senators at 36 to 1. Nice. The Detroit Red Wings at 41 to 1. Okay. The Minnesota Wilde also at 41 to 1. The New York Islanders at 46 to 1 and the Pittsburgh Penguins at

46 to 1. Nice. I think I like the Ottawa Senators the best of that group. Yeah. They have the

shortest odds, but they should have the shortest odds. They added my guy Michael Amadio. Mm-hmm. I didn't understand

the chickering deal. And you think Jensen's cooked even though he's one of my favorite defense in the last five years. He didn't look very good last year.

I get the logic where he has an extra year your, the handiness is important because they are so lefty oriented right now. Um, and I felt like

they just like, they were at an empathic Like, they just need it. It makes sense. The past couple years, the way things have gone in Ottawa. Like, they're valuing, like, people who are just going to be, like, steady pros who, like, aren't going to be releasing quotes and, like, liking tweets. But, like, not the tricker than it was, but I was like,

drama constantly surrounding this organization. I think they want to get away from that, like, Allmark and Jensen, like, just reliable guys. And David Perron. Yeah. And so I actually think David Perron and Brady Kachuk could be fun. because just in terms of like playing a area game down low, but beneath the hash marks, you know,

Peron, Peron has been, like his skating speed has been off for a long time. Like, I remember David Peron's breakout season really, really clearly in 2008. That was a long time ago, man.

Like, I had hair. He's unbelievable. And, like, I remember him as this, like, pretty fast winger who was super hard on the puck.

you know, on that like Backus Oshy Blues team, right? And like when they sort of just pulled out of that rebuild and like I don't think he's been fast for five years. And it hasn't mattered. There's gonna be guys in the NHL soon

who weren't even born back then. It's wild. Like I literally like have this clear they got so, that team got so hot in the back half of the season and I can remember watching Prawn and just being like, this guy's so hard to knock off the puck.

Yeah. But he was like fast. Right. That was a million years ago. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, with the way Perron plays, though, I feel like he's been able to extend his career, especially when he's able to play with like smart, physically imposing centerman,

like what he did with Ryan O'Reilly, where you, if you're able to play that like area game beneath the hash marks with him, I think he can, I think he's like a deviously effective creator off of the cycle. and there aren't a lot of centermen around the league who I'd like hit my knee and be like, that's the guy. But when I saw him sign in Ottawa, I did think, oh my God, him and Brady Kachuk, that makes sense to me.

I'm interested. I hope their PK is good. Yeah, fair enough. A lot of penalties. We didn't bring that up in relation to Vancouver's forest on the back end. That's true. Their penalty will better be damn good. I don't have any other notes on that group.

He may as well light money on fire at this point. Islanders? I mean, I like De Claire. The addition was nice. And the, yeah, exactly. I'm fine with it. I mean, we're talking about winning a Stanley Cup here.

They have another move to make, too. Okay. The next tier, let's call this. I think this tier is interesting. Me too. Well, this is the one to spend money on. This is like, save your bets for this tier, baby.

Let's go 50 to let's go 50 to 61. Okay. Buffalo Sabres, 51 to 1. I'm ready to get hurt again. Me too. Seattle Cracken, 56 to 1. I mean, I think...

I think I like that more than a lot of the teams you mentioned in the previous year. 100% me too. Especially with the Pacific Division, right? Like, I think they could... They should be priced with Ottawa. At the very least, it's a misprice. Yeah. In my opinion.

Like, what's the gap between Ottawa and the Seattle Cracken? Seattle's got like better, younger talent with guys like... But I think Seattle has a much more realistic path to also like squeezing into the playoffs. and at that point it's like, all right, well, at least you have a chance. Yeah, exactly. I don't even think they have a realistic shot of squeezing in the playoffs. I think they could have just a bounce back season. Like, there's a real chance that Maddie Baneers is just like, oh, right, he's like a 65 point play driving two-way guy.

Yes. Because he's sick. And he had such a bad year last year, but I don't think that's who he is. No. So I basically, if you think there's a chance that Maddie Baneers gets back to playing like, you know, this monster that he was as a rookie, and I think it's a very high likelihood. Cracken fans listening right now

are experiencing the full range of roller coaster of emotions where we spent the first 10 minutes critiquing them, and now we're spending the final 10 minutes talking more than winning the Stanley Cup. Well, look, both things can be true. We're allowed to have multiple thoughts

of our brain at once. Right, thank you. St. Louis Blues, 56 to 1. I think I'm out on that. Yeah, there's a listener in the PDAQas Discord as well. There's like, anytime you ever mention the blues, it's in past. just to reinforce that they're mid.

Yeah. And I'm going to continue doing so. Okay. Now, here's one that I like. The Utah Hockey Club at 56 to 1. Oh, baby. Let's go. Sign me up. Sign me up.

I wish they would have been a good Allmark team. Because if you told me they just had him and Ingram for 82 games, similar Swamen Allmark. That would give them such a high baseline with that forward talent and out of the defensemen. Which is fine. Like, I think he'll be okay. Yeah, Vegemalka is good. Yeah. I just would have liked 40 games of Allmark instead, especially for the price.

I do like Bonner Ingram though I think he's a player He's awesome And now you're not a big Sergachev guy I just think he's been overrated Yeah but Clearly an upgrade for them I mean goes out saying Considering they literally had no

Defenseman signed to NHL deals before the draft Does he finally get Do I finally get my dream of watching What would happen if Sergachev is used as a 1A Or is it still going to be Dersie on the power play No I think it'll be Sergachev Let's go I guess I was going to say he got paid

But Jersey does as well Think of a way. So I don't even know if we've ever had the argument on air. The Sergachov debates? The Sergachv Wars of 2022 or something? We've had a lengthy running disagreement on Sergishab's quality as a player. And this year we get to find out. Because one of my big arguments to you has always been like, if he had a chance to be a 1A guy, he'd be like a 60 point.

So we'll find a way to monetize it next season. Undoubtedly be a talented guy. I don't want people to misconstrue that. I just feel like when other- Didn't mean to throw you under those. When other teams are playing against you and their game plan revolves around attacking your weaknesses, I'm skeptical of you as being like a lynchpin guy of a blue line core. I think he's like a nice player.

Now, I like the Marino ad. I'm a Jersey fan, for entertainment purposes at least. Add Valamaki and they're like, this is going to be a good group. Like, I think they're going to be fun. I'm very excited. Dylan Gunther is also like a monster. Yeah, having a, unbelievable. Having a Utah hockey club long shot ticket, I mean, that sounds amazing.

That sounds fun, right? Yeah, no, 56 to 1. Them and Buffalo are probably my favorite bets on the board. I wish Buffalo did more, but they're a team that is still TBD because they have so much room and clearly are actively pursuing the trade market. But like they need Nicolai Eilers or like they need a bit more juice. Yeah, I agree. Because all of their moves are like fourth line guys. For sure.

And they have the young players atop the lineup, but I think they need a bit more. Yeah, I agree. Philadelphia, 61-1 and the Washington Capitol, 61-1. See, I'm surprised the market didn't swing more in their favor, similar to what we said about Nashville, because they made so many trendy moves. See, I actually think they made good moves.

No, they did. Yeah, I'm in. I think I'm in on, like, look, I can make the case for Philadelphia on the possibility that Mitchcoves just... Well, they were almost a playoff team. They should have been a playoff team last year. And now they're adding a guy who just... like,

who's going to address their biggest weakness. He could legitimately be like there. There's obviously a gap, but there's a chance that they're adding a, you know, just sub-Connor Bedard quality 19 year old to their lineup. Like,

he could be a 75.80 point guy year one. Absolutely. No question about it. So if he is towards Lettsenby, what do they have there? I'll be fascinated to see. So at least I can see the case for Philly too, but I'm kind of out.

I'm out on the fact that they're going to have a great seven weeks, and then Torts is going to wear everyone out both physically and mentally, and then they're going to struggle down the stretch just like every year. Like, why do we keep pretending that this isn't the most predictable thing in hockey? Anyway.

That escalated so quickly. Well, it's just so annoying. You talk yourself into a tizzy. Well, I'm just like, I can make the upside case for them if they had a real coach. No, George is a good coach. He is a great coach. Yeah.

at getting teams right to the precipice of you believing in them and then having them completely fade, but maybe they don't fade so completely that they might sneak into the playoffs and pull a tremendous round one upset. But that's all they're ever going to do. I mean, last year was like a success, though. I mean, think about the talent they had and what they got in that group, right? Torts with a limited group?

Yeah. You're cooking with oil, baby. Yeah. You're cooking with oil until the calendar turns to March every time out. Anyway, the Washington Capitals, 61 to 1. Yep. I actually like that. I do too.

Yeah. Yeah, it's fine. I mean, it's a 60 101. Like, I was going to say, they're not going to stand the cup. I think that goes without saying. But they have a good,

good team. Yeah. They added a lot of good guys. And what I liked about it is, unlike in a lot of cases, it's like, all right, they got better, but at what cost?

In this case, if things do go south, they will be able to add retain salary, particularly with Manjipani, Chikrin, um, yeah,

with everyone by Du Bois. They can pretty much just get back. Yeah, I think even more than what they for those guys, right? Like, they're going to get back legitimate draft capital. Manjipani might have been

the steel of the of the off season. You're totally honest with you. I think that deal is going to be a home run. I'd add this, like, I hurt my ankle down in Palm Springs. The listeners, no. Yeah, and after you left,

I was sitting there because I had no one to hang out with anymore, and all the Calder. Don't make everyone feel depressed now. No, I'm just saying. I was sitting in a dark room by myself after my one friend on Earth left. Once the house was empty and my wife came so I had no one else staying out.

No, I'm kidding. My wife was the best. No, but I was watching those games because they're on like cable. Yeah. In the desert. And I'm, I want a lot more Miroshenko stock than I've had before. I want all of it, in fact. I thought, I thought one thing about him.

I thought he was like, kind of like a brainless shoot from anywhere guy with a little bit of pest in him. But he's become a lot more than that. I'm in. I mean, he's such a traumatic event at such a deep developmental time. Like, I'm willing to give him wiggle room and where he's at already at this point, considering where he was a couple years ago, I think it's... I'm in. Yeah.

I think he's going to be awesome next year. Yeah. Like, I want... I like what I saw, Michael, Lapierre. Like, they got these guys meaningful reps. I know that sometimes can be, like, overstated of like... Lafier was a monster team in the Calder Cup final. Yeah.

Like, that's important. Yep. No, I'm in. I'm just in, I'm in on the caps, generally. They just have such an eclectic group of players. I know. But I'm in on Carbro. I'm in on them making the playoffs with a minus 45 goal differential.

Like I'm in. I want cap stock in general. Okay, here's the lottery ticket tier. 75 to 1 and lower. The Calgary flames are 75 to 1 or 76 to 1 and they should be lower than that. The Montreal Canadians are 101 to 1. The Chicago Blackhawks are 151 to 1. The ducks are 201 to 1, which is unbelievable.

The Columbus Blue Jackets also 200 and 1 to 1. And the San Jose Sharks, 251-1. Wow. Yeah, sharks are dead in the water. That's where you draw the water. I'm telling you, no, I think all of those teams are dead in the water. But I like the Flames more for first overall pick. Me too.

That's the way to play the Flames is to bet on them being as bad as the team's lower than them. Because think about it. They've already telegraphed. I know what they keep saying. I'm just not buying it. Like I think in season, if the right deal comes up, for certainly Raspers Anderson, but even if like someone wants to take on

the remainder Blake Coleman, cadre, like all these guys will become available. And they should be, quite frankly. I don't understand really the reluctance against it. So should they not be calling the Montreal Canadians and trying to get

off of Huberto for like both Gallagher and Anderson? Yeah, you've pitched this on a show before. It's certainly interesting. Like why would they not do that? Yeah. They should at least try. Yeah. Maybe they have.

Yeah, they should be. Anyway, the, uh, well, but I feel like, Craig Conroy's too busy loading up on eight defensemen. There, there's, there's all these tweets. There's all these tweets. Like one thing about, uh, cheering for a rebuilding team is there's never evidence that the plan's not working because the plan to, like to work, the plan is projecting like years into the future.

So fans of rebuilding teams do what I call the lists of mid where it's like, look at what Craig Conroy got for the Elias Lindholm trade, right? And it's like now that they made all the picks, it's like eight names. And it's like look, I thought the Flames did well drafting upside guys in the draft, but by far the piece that the flames acquired for Elias Lintom most likely to ever make an NHL impact,

by far, probabilistically speaking, is Andre Kuzmanko by a mile? Like, what are we doing here? Anyway, I like the Anaheim Ducks at 2001 to 1. Yeah. I want shares of the ducks. I always won't share. We never learn our lesson. I feel like you could just replay the past like three years or like sabers and ducks, baby. Let's go.

But you know what? One year we'll be right. Like we were with the devils two years ago. And then we're wrong again. But also I did this with the hurricanes. I know you regret that now. No, I'm back in. But I do think the gap between a successful team and an unsuccessful team is bigger than we think.

And I think it takes a long time to close that gap. but I also think once you accumulate that like critical mass of talent, it happens all at once. And it's just like, I don't know if this is the year that it happens for the ducks, but I think they're getting close. So at this point for the next few years, I'm going to keep picking them,

just like I'm going to keep picking the Buffalo Sabres, just like I'm going to keep picking a New Jersey Devils Bounceback. All right, we got to get out of here. This really escalated so quickly. Like we pretty much did a, we did two podcasts. Two shows in one.

after we had not planned to do a single one. But you know what? I don't regret it. This was fun. I'm sure the listeners are going to enjoy it. I think people are pretty, are pretty like interested in more content right now, right? So I think people will be listening as we get into the off season here.

Tom, plug some stuff. What do you want to listen to on the way out? I'm about to take my summer vacation. So don't go looking for Canucks talk, but it's usually available Monday for Friday. Follow Thomas Trans on Twitter. Follow Thomas Trance on Twitter and subscribe to my only fans. And for the three people still listening, they love that.

And follow my work at theathletic.com. That was a great plug, bud. My plugs are going to the P.D.O.cast Discord. Invite link is in the show notes. Smash that five-star button, show us some love for all the hard work we did this season. And if you're listening to this somehow and the show hasn't come out yet, we have one more show coming out yet with Brendan Dillon. And we already recorded that one. So that'll be out.

And that'll be our season finale. Two podcasts. with a guy wearing the exact same shirt. Okay, yeah, so let's tell that joke on the way out. So I'm sitting in the bullpen here. We just recorded the show. We're kind of talking, talking shop. Tom walks in for his shift to do his show.

Comments on the fact that someone sitting in the room is wearing the same shirt and then looks up and sees that it's Brennan Dillon and starts laughing hysterically. But it's not just the same shirt. And then Brendan Dillon introduces himself and Tom goes, I know who you are. Did I do that? Yeah. It was great. Awesome.

I, um, the fact is, though, is it's not like a blue golf shirt. You know what I mean? Right. It is the same brand. It's a handling. The exact same shirt. Yeah. It was just really funny.

Yeah. All right, man. Well, this is great. Thank you to everyone for listening to us and for supporting the show. And usually I sign off by saying we'll be back with more of the Hockeypedio guests on the Sportsnet Radio Network. We won't because we're going off away for the offseason for our summer break. But thank you for listening. and yeah, the best way to keep up with the show is to be in that Discord

because we'll be giving you updates on when the show's back and what to look forward to. So thank you to everyone for listening to us.