The Hockey PDOcast - Mailbag Questions About Raddysh's Next Contract, Players Who Deserve More Love, and 2nd Half Bounce Back Candidates

Episode Date: January 15, 2026

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Dom Luszczyszyn to answer your mailbag questions about Darren Raddysh's next contract, why the Kings are so mid, McDavid's point streak, Quinn Hughes' impact in Minnesota, players who deserve more love this season, bounceback candidates in the second half, how much juice Dougie Hamilton has left, and a whole lot more. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey Pideotcast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey Piediocast. My name is DeVitrafolovich. And joining me as my good buddy, Dom, what's going on in? Not too much. Very snowy day in Toronto here. I have a friend in Vancouver.

And he's like, yeah, a lot of snow here. And apparently it's like 10 degrees this weekend. So, yeah, must be nice. It's beautiful. The rain's gone. The sun's coming out a little bit. exciting times. We got a lot to talk about today.

We're going to open up the mailbag from our listeners. I solicited some questions from us or for us from the PDOCS Discord. So if you're not in there yet, absolutely join us so you can get questions in for future editions. I've got about 10 or so here, and we're going to try to run through as many of them as we can. We're going to loop in the 16 stats you just put out on the athletic as well. And I think that's going to tie in nicely to a couple of questions we got.

Here's the first one. teams seem to be moving towards prioritizing talent and depth up front while trying to just get by on defense. Is this something that checks out via Dom's net rating? Now, I thought this would be a nice little excuse for us to talk about the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team that we spoke about a lot. Last time I had you on, that was at the end of the first month of the season. The Lightning was struggling. I expressed my skepticism about your model and even the market in general,

having them ranked so highly in the East, because I, I'd been watching their games, and I thought their defensemen looked quite cooked from a mobility perspective. And since then, obviously, they've turned things around. They're sitting atop the east. Now, I don't know if I was necessarily wrong, because a lot of the defensemen I was worried about in Victor Headman, Ryan McDonough, Eric Chernak, all got hurt in the meantime. Missed a significant period of time. They wound up promoting a bunch of more unheralded, unproven defensemen in their stead into larger roles. and they've taken off since.

So we can talk about the lightning here. We can talk about the question in general as well because I do feel like the lightning are probably the best proof of concept for this type of a team build approach. Yeah, it just seems like the lightning are just very good at it and they're very smart and they have great development, pro scouting, amateur scouting. Every year the lightning promotes some guy

and he's just unbelievable one of the best players you've ever seen your life. that was once Anthony Sorrelli, Braden Point, obviously scored a lot in junior, but he was a second round pick and he became a franchise player, Kutrov as well. And not to say that Darren Radish is a franchise player, but he's playing some unbelievable hockey lately

and there's just something in the water in Tampa Bay to make things work in that way. On the pro scouting side, I think getting J.J. Moser from Arizona at the time was a very savvy mood. I'm sorry, I guess Utah. They were already Utah. I forgot how long JJ was there.

But to the question, I think we've known for a while that number one, forwards are generally more valuable. And number two is just a numbers game of there being a lot of them, where I think some old school jams might focus more on net out, fix the defense, have everything work in that way. But if you, I think, make your forward depth as good as possible, that can use. usually help out a lot and make some defensemen look better. I mean, I don't think anyone expected Darren Radish and JJ Rozier to look this good, but it is a proof of concept, considering that headman and McDonorne around, they're supposed to be the two best guys. And I don't

know, they wouldn't have got that opportunity, if not for that injury. And now we're seeing what they, we can do with the forwards of the top lineup. Well, I think we know that defensemen generally are much more susceptible or vulnerable to environments in particular, right? Not that their forward counterparts aren't, but I think we've seen time and time again that there's ways to make defensemen look good in certain spots, whether it's through usage, deployment, what you're asking them to do in terms of their list of responsibilities. Think of what the Panthers have done during this run in terms of bringing in guys

who had more pedigree certainly than these guys, but had struggled in previous stops, been bought out, look like they weren't going to be valuable defensemen. And then all of a sudden, they're just like, all right, you always just skate forward. Don't worry about anything else. Our forwards are going to back you up, just pinch aggressively, jump into the rush, and everyone just takes off in that environment. It's because forwards create that environment, right?

They generally drive more results to a larger degree. I think they're more consistent as well in doing so. And it makes sense because not only do they create scoring chances and goals, but they're also, if you think about it, the first wave of defense, right? like whether it's through the forecheck, sustaining ozone time, pressuring high in the D zone, making possession plays on the wall, you need to have strong defensemen, to have a strong defensive environment. It's not as simple as just building out the best D-Corps.

You can, and the lightning are an example of that. There's second in goals against, first and expected goals against, third and shots against, second infuest time spent in their D-Zone. And it's with this group right now. I mean, their top three defensemen this year in 515, Eistimer Moser, who makes 3.375, although he got an extension kicking in next year, Radish at 975K Charles Edward Dostu at 775

Then you got Chernak at 5.2 But then Crozier and Carlisle also making Under a million dollars And let's talk radish Because some people are calling them Baldiore Which I love 30 games since Victor Hedman got hurt 11 goals 36 points

Now that's tied for the 11th most points in the league And that's not amongst defensemen That's all forwards everyone that plays the NHL He's a right-handed defenseman he's going to be a 30-year-old UFO this summer, and in particular, in light of Julian Breeswald's comments this past week where he was asked about it

and trying to get a deal done with him, what an extension would look like. And I thought that was very notable the way he approached it. Certainly very pragmatic, I thought, and makes a lot of sense when a guy has this type of an explosion at this stage of his career. We've seen many GMs in the past make mistakes,

rewarding them for it immediately without waiting to see it play out. What were your thoughts on? of, I guess, Breezwa has comments in that, the lightning approach here, and then just Radish as a player and kind of how legit this is. My main thought is I'm glad I don't have to make this decision.

And it was a breath of fresh air to hear Breisbois speak with such candor about how difficult the decision and what to pay Radish and how long is just because of what he was last year and what he is now and the fact he's undrafted, doesn't have pedigree, doesn't have a history of being

this good and I wrote about this in 16 stats where if you look at his current projected value now 9 million dollar defense men if you look at it last year 4.5 million and I even splitting that difference sounds scary

and terrifying and it's just a very risky bet where maybe Radish continues this maybe he doesn't he certainly looks really good on the power play and I think it's been really effective there versus what had been I think has weighed in there a bit.

At 5 on 5, it is really, really tough to gauge because on the one hand, he is playing tough minutes with Moser. On the other hand, Moser's also leveled up. He has this high PDO where you're not sure this goal percentage will hold up. But I don't know, he's looked so good that I think you can trust he's probably a legit topboard defenseman. I don't know how long.

If you're giving him top pair of money, your number one money, you better be damn sure. And I definitely am not. Yeah, I mean, certainly he's shooting 13% as a defenseman. The PDO you mentioned, I think it's 11.7 on a shooting percentage in 935, say percentage they're just not giving up. I know what's J.J. Moser's 515 goal differential, like 44 to 13 or something. Last I checked is just preposterous.

I think the lightning are in a good spot here regardless, because you look at their contracts and it's something we've talked about recently. they've pretty much signed everyone other than Radish and Bjorksern, right? And so now they're in a spot heading into the summer where they've got 12 forwards, seven defensemen and two goalies already signed for less than $89 million. That gives them $15 million in Wiggle Room for the first summer and forever to add to this team, whether that's bringing those guys back or going out and acquiring someone elsewhere. And so I feel like in a way they're almost playing with house money here.

We're obviously, Radish stepping up is huge for them this season, but they can afford, I think, to make a bit of a calculated bet on an extension with him and not necessarily completely crippling them, whereas to your point, if another team, like, let's say the ducks who we're going to talk about later on and desperately need help on the right side, if they went out and just used all their cap space on a guy like Radish, and then this wound up not being the case. And it's pretty easy to foresee a guy going from Tampa Bay to Anaheim, for example, and struggling in that way.

That would be a much bigger problem for them. So I think the lightning have a lot of runaway here and can afford to do so because they don't need to. Like historically, they've signed these guys as soon as possible to avoid them testing the market and getting top dollar from some other team. They have enough cap space now where they can afford to take that risk and still wind up paying them if they want to down the road because they have the cap space all of a sudden. It's a different dynamic, I think, for them than previous off seasons. Yeah. And we just mentioned how defensemen are most susceptible susceptible to environment anyways. So it feels like a guy who's more valuable to the lightning than he might be to another team where you are,

if you're not sure about on the lightning then, you're definitely not sure as a member of the Anaheim Ducks front office. Well, and we're going to see, right? Because headmonds should come back before the Olympics and play for Team Sweden by all accounts. And in the second half, I'm very curious to see the way the lightning approach this as they try to get the top seed in, only the Atlantic but the East because

Radish and Moleser have been so good together that I feel like almost at this point until something changes you just have to play them together on the top there even when Hedman and McDonough come back but what that usage looks like and what those results look like by game 82 and heading into the playoffs I think will probably give us a better answer

or more clarity to this question. Anything else on the Lightning or do you want to move on to our next question? I still can't believe they're using York Strand as much as they do on the power play. Yeah. Baffling, but what can you do?

I've seen some lightning fans commenting that is frustrating to watch, but I don't know, a great team. I think they are the team to be in the East, and I don't think it's particularly close right now with the way Radish and Moser have leveled up. I will just say if they do some sort of a three-team trade where they include Bjork Strand's salary

and get the Rangers to retain 50% on Timmy Panarin, they can fit that salary and have him on the opposite flank of Kuturav if that's something that would be of interest to them and I imagine it would be so we'll see how that plays out okay here's the next question why are the king so mid I think this I mean I guess they're technically are mid just because they're hanging around a playoff spot they have a certain level of points so they're not necessarily at the bottom of the standings so from a result's perspective they're mid but I feel like watching them play a night in a night out that's probably a generous representation of what they actually are as a team right now.

Yeah, they have a few injuries. Dowdy, as soon as he got named to the Olympic team, is like, all right, I'm going to mail it in for a couple of weeks and hasn't been great lately. I don't know if it's coaching. There's been a lot of fire under-Hiller for the way things are going. And I look at Brandt Clark not getting used the way he probably should. I look at Byfield's offensive stagnation, and I wonder if a different voice can make something happen here.

But the gist of it is that they don't have still, to this day, an elite player. That's been the difference in every Edmonton-Oller series. That was the difference between this team and the ones that won cups. Kopitar and Dowdy were the elite faces of the team, John Fink and Quick as well. And no one is at that level. I think Clark could get to that level if they played him, like a number one, but he just doesn't play enough to, I think, be confident in that. And Byfield, great defensive game.

I am definitely disappointed offensively with what he's shown this year. I feel like I'm going crazy watching them play. And it feels like I know they're going to wind up playing 82 games the way every other team is going to be, but I feel like they're playing every single night and I'm being subjected to watching them, unfortunately. It seems like they're entering every game right now trying to lose three to two by that specific. scoreline and they did so again on Wednesday night against the Golden Knights and the coaching question

is an interesting one because on the one hand I think typically when you get to this spot with an organization it's because you can flat out see that the players aren't really competing or trying and giving poor efforts and you're like well maybe if you bring a new coach it because it's spark the team and then you watch them against the Golden Knights

or any other game especially in that first period they're playing hard they're like skating fast they're winning battles they're getting offensive zone time like it's not like they've given up from a personnel perspective, but the usage and the ambition or game plan is I think something you can certainly quibble with. And that's what makes it so frustrating that after every one of those three, two losses, I see a press conference from Jim Hiller online where he's talking about how they're so close and they're playing the right way and they're

almost there where they want to be. And I'm like, man, I don't really see that at all myself right now. I know the score lines are close, but that's because they're trying to lose by as little as possible as opposed to actually winning. And they don't have those top guys necessarily in terms of a production perspective to be a serious cup contender. But they have more offensive juice amongst their personnel than they've shown this season. And that's where I think you can really nitpick with the coaching. And I think certainly the management in terms of what they did this off season.

I mean, it's unacceptable for them to have four wins so far by a three plus goal margin, which is dead last in the league. 28 of their 46 games have been by one goal, either direction 11 OT losses. They've lost 27 of their 46 games. The Canucks are the only team with fewer regulation wins. It's bad. Now, let's get into Clark because I know you wanted to talk about their power play as well. And watching these games, I think that's been the one silver lining because I think heading

it this season because of his usage in the past and their reluctance to fully unleash him. I wasn't sure what to make of them in terms of how high the upside really was and how attainable was in the short term, we're still not where we need to be with that usage. But it's pretty clear he's their best player right now. And I think that's what makes it even more maddening that he keeps playing 19 and a half minutes as opposed to the 25, he probably should. But that does inspire confidence for a guy who's going to need a second contract as his ELC expires this summer in terms of him being a legitimate building block moving forward.

Yeah, my concern going to season with Clark was that he was being used that way for good reason, like defensively don't think the game was there yet. But this season I think there's been enough improvement even in those sheltered minutes to consider him as like a genuine topboard defenseman, someone who can hold his own defensively and someone who brings a lot to the table offensively. And even in that vein, it was a shock it took so long to get Clark on the top power play.

Like I know they used five forwards for a bit and it absolutely did not work. But rather than go to. Clark they went to Dowdy for a bit and that just was confusing, giving them where Dowdy's game is that offensively lately. And it just felt like a no-brainer that it's funny that the second they actually do it, they start scoring a whole bunch of goals on the power play. And Clark is a big part of that picking up a lot of points from those goals. So since the new year, they've played eight games.

They've scored 21 goals in that time. I tweeted this last night after the game. Brand Clark's been on the ice for 14 of them. and he's only played 156 minutes. They've played 337 minutes without him on the ice, and they've mustered seven total goals in that time. Him playing 19 and a half minutes per game right now is just unconscionable, given he's their only real source or outlet for creating offense,

and especially because it's coming to create minutes for Dowdy, who's playing 23 and a half in that time, even starting the overtime against the Golden Knights, and then being out there for a goal against as he is pretty much every night. And so I just, I can't really get it. And then I've seen a lot of questions of like a player who I love Adrian Kempay. What's going on with him? Why isn't he scoring a 5-15?

And then you look at his splits with Brand Clark versus Dowdy. And I think it kind of tells the story there as well, just bringing the entire environment down offensively. What do you think about them as a team that would trade for Elias Patterson in season and kind of what that would look like in terms of whether it would provide them with something they've been missing and whether it would even make sense for them at this point. Yeah, I think the King's problem for a long time is converting all their pressure, all their chances,

all their offensive zone time into actual goals. And I don't know how Pedersen would look in their system, but he seems to be a guy who can actually execute and make things happen. Obviously, not as much over the last two years, especially not last year. But the year before, he has a history. I definitely have some worry about picking him up, but like for the Kings, I do think it makes

sense given that this is their time to make things happen. They need someone. And if that's the bet they have to make, that might be worth it. It just depends on, I guess, how much it costs. And if it's very expensive, maybe it isn't worth it. I do think this team is better than the results, better than their record, better than they look. They're just, I think, I think. a bit lost right now.

Yeah, they can make work financially, especially with how much money they have expiring over the next couple of years. I still think, regardless of who they bring up front, if they're playing this way under the current coach with the defenseman they have, it's not really going to matter. Just because any forward that comes in, it's not going to be in a position to succeed.

Do I talk about McDavid? Because as I hinted off the top, you wrote about him in this 20 game run he's on with his point streak in your 16 stats. Let's get into that. and kind of what we're seeing from the Oilers right now. Yeah, I, is this like the quietest 20-game point streak that you can recall? Because there's been five in the South Cap era, two from Kane, one from Marner, one from

Crosby, and then this one now from McDavid. And McDavid has arguably had the best one, and he is getting less fanfare than Marners at the time, which was, which felt fake because it was like one point every game. like Nick David's putting up Gretzky numbers on pace for like 189 over the stretch which is the most of his career over any 20 game stretch which is unreal yeah he's got 19 goals and 46 points in that time

I think the the craziest stat for me and you can see it with like just how aggressively he's driving the net and getting scoring chances and scoring a goal per game essentially in that time he is 102 shots on goal in this stretch which is an 82 game pace of 418 and to put that into perspective since 2005, there's been five such seasons of 400 plus shots on goal.

Ovechkin in 08-0-8, Ovechkin in 0-7-08, Ovechkin in 0-5-06, and then Pasternak at 407 in 22, 23 when he scored 61, and McKinnon had 405 in 23-24 now. The first Ovechko and I listed is 528 shots on goal, which may as well, I think, be, is almost more impressive than breaking gravest. Redskie's goal record in a way because I just don't think we're ever going to see that again with the way the game is played with like and the way the shots are counted too with the way the shots are

counted and just like teams not spamming shots as much anymore not that Obechkin was because he was getting them from areas where you could score from at the time but that volume is just something I don't think we're ever going to see again I guess my one concern as great as this has been is you look at the usage and Doyler just had this stretch where they played three games in four days and he played 27 minutes against LA, 21 and a half against Chicago, and then on the second leg of a back-to-back, played 26 and a half against Nashville. And I feel like Chris and all-blocking the Oilers are going to have to look at that

because they look pretty gas down the stretch of that Breds game. And I know they kind of dug themselves a hole early year, and they're trying to move up the standings and get a good playoff seed with some home ice potentially in the playoffs. But managing that and trying to get more out of the players lower in the lineup, I think, are going to be just as important, as impressive as the streak is. been. Yeah, I selfishly, if they need to play McDavid 27 minutes a night to get to 50 games

or whatever to keep the street going, I selfishly want that. But from a team perspective, it has been a bit baffling how little they use the bottom of their lineup. And it's understandable considering the quality of the bottom of their lineup. But I mean, if the goals of the playoffs, they got to save some gas in the tank. Even the last two playoffs, they've been on long runs. They're were definitely games against Florida in the cup final both years where it looks like McDavid and Drysiddle didn't have a whole lot left. Yeah, the efficiency isn't there, but the fact he's even averaging that as a forward is nuts.

So I think it's a point in the streak's favor. Yeah. Okay, let's end. Let's do one more question before we go to break. A listener asks, how is Quinn Hughes fitting in so far in Minnesota? Now, it's been exactly one month since he made his debut, essentially. on the wild they've got eight three and four in that time with a plus 12 goal differential um i know

you wrote about it early in his wild tenure in terms of how the usage had kind of been adjusted from what we'd become accustomed to for him in Vancouver what are you seeing right now in terms of the way the wild are using him and then kind of how that's fitting in terms of our expectations heading in and and what they've ultimately gotten out of it so when i wrote about it a month ago one of the caveats was, you know, as Brodeen was injured. And so it wasn't a for sure thing that Hughes would be used as the match of defenseman for the wild ones that once Brodine came back, he's their best defense defense defense. He's one of the best defensive defensemen in the league.

So there was some question marks there. But even since Brodine has come back, it's been Hughes taking on the lion's share of the tough minutes every night. He, I think, played a career high against McDavid. It had to have been when they played each other. I think I was maybe like 12 minutes. I looked the last like two years and he played maybe like three to five against Big David. So it's been a massive change.

And to Hughes's credit, it doesn't seem like it's affected him at all. And I think that's an incredibly impressive thing to note because there are a lot of defensemen who you, you know they can handle it. We know Hughes can handle it. But until they actually do it and we see how it has an effect on their numbers, you don't know for sure. like Eric Carlson throughout his career usually played secondary matchups. Roman Eosie plays them in Nashville. Victor Hedman plays them in Tampa Bay as well. It's how they maximize the offense.

And you can still be one of the best friends in the league doing that. But it is even more impressive that he's being given this role, playing strong defense with Brock Faber and still delivering offensively the way he always has. Yeah, they've got like a 55% expects a goal share. in his 5-on-5 minutes. And in particular, when they have them out there with Boldie,

they essentially are just spending like full minutes at a time cycling the puck in the offensive zone. And it's very impressive. I think the Oilers and abs are the only two teams with more offensive zone possession time. And then I think Faber has definitely benefited from it, right?

Not only from a production perspective, but like you just watch and he's getting so many more shot opportunities and he's scoring more just because there's a ton of spaces for him to essentially step into some of this stuff. And Hughes himself, I think, has delivered in terms of the environment he's creating and all the beautiful skating and possession time,

he still has zero five-on-five goals himself this year on nearly 200 attempts. And that's something that had really become a calling card of his over the past two years when he worked on his shot a lot with Joel Belfrey and started scoring goals of Vancouver. And so given the opportunities he's getting, I'd expect that to continue, especially if he keeps playing 28 minutes a night.

So I think so far, so good there, ultimately to answer the question from the listener. All right, let's take our break here. And then we come back, We'll jump right back in it with the mailback questions. You're listening to the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here with Domushin on the HockeyPedio cast, doing some mailback questions from our listeners.

Tom, here's the next one. Who isn't getting enough credit for how good they've been so far this season? I assume this is from like an individual player perspective, although you could answer it from a team level if you want as well. But do you have anyone that comes to mind? I've got a couple guys that I wanted to throw at you. I, as you know, I'm not a podcast guy, but I can almost predict that you have mentioned Luke Evangelistville a lot.

Yes. That has to be a P.D.O. Arguably too many times. So that would be my pick. I don't know if it's a fair pick because of where I am. But in terms of national media attention, he's been unbelievable. It is funny that they sort of nickel and dined him to start the season. And it would be crazy to wonder where they would be without.

him. John Marino, Nate Schmidt, have been great for Utah on the second pair. Matt Bowley, who you just mentioned, I think might have been better than Caprisov this season. He's been that good,

both ends of the ice, and he's taken on some shutdown stuff with Joel Erick's next. That's been great to see. Unheralded, but I think John Klingberg hasn't been totally terrible. And I think he's been a lot better

than he has been in previous years. Obviously he had some improvement last year of Edmonton. And early on the season, it didn't look like that stuck. But I think over the last month or so, probably because of Macklin-Salmere, he's been a lot better. Yeah, you watch those Sharks games, and there's so many opportunities for those San Jose defensemen to, like, they get the puck in the offensive zone. And they're just not really equipped beyond Klingberg for the most part and the occasional Timothy Oligarine sequence to make the most of it. And I wonder what that would have looked like if Dougie Hamilton had accepted the reported trade in the offseason to go there. I know you've been tweeting about it and writing about it.

It's really amusing to me to watch what's happened with Dougie where he gets healthy scratched on Sunday, comes back with two games. And they're just like the ultimate FU games from him where 36 and a five and five minutes between those two shots are 18 to 8. Chance is 13 for goals, four, nothing. He has three primary assists. And it's like, oh, yeah, he still rocks. He still got it in terms of if there's any questions left in regards to how much juice he has left in the tank because his production had been down so far this year. Yeah, I don't think he's a $9 million defenseman anymore, but he definitely still has juice. You look under the hood and every offensive thing is like flashing red saying this is probably unlucky.

And like we talk about role a lot. He is their matchup defenseman for some reason. and like if he put him in that Yosey headman space of hey go do offense on the second pair, I think he still has a lot to give. I'm going to resist every urge that I have in my body right now to talk about Luke Evangelista because I've done so and I think listeners won't view him as unharalded, but I think that's a good shout by you. I had this Tampa Bayline, I know we already spoke about lighting in the first half,

but Yanni Gord, Zamgus-Gergensen's and Pontus Holmberg, who are third, six and seventh among lightning forwards and 515 usage this year 10 goals against so far in like 320 minutes together high danger chance is 72 to 43

and the abs came to town last week and John Cooper essentially just like used them exclusively against Nathan McKendon's line and they were just all over them and probably had one of their quieter performances this season so I think they've been incredible

how about Dylan Gunther who has been a lunatic this year, especially the past couple weeks. That performance he had against the Leafs earlier this week was one of the more dominant ones you're going to see. And let's throw away the power play stuff because this mammoth power play is down

to 30 second now in the league in terms of efficiency just at 5-on-5. Only Nathan McKinnon and Tage Thompson have scored more goals than Dylan Gunther. All 26 of his points have been primary. He doesn't have a single secondary assist. Fifth and shots on goal. Fourth and shot attempts on a permanent

basis. Look, usage his offensive zone starts have gone down significantly because they're not sheltering them the way they were last year there's been no logan coolly for over a month now he never plays with keller and schmaltz and yet he's still just the one man wrecking machine essentially regardless of who he plays with so i think he's been incredible he's been probably one of the more impressive offensive players at even strength this year and he's doing it in certainly not the best environment yeah i see they they slid him down to the third line recently which felt baffling and counter to the way he has looked recently,

which has been someone who can maybe be the franchise piece for Utah. We talked about Utah a lot before the season because you and Trans were really high. You were buying Utah stock. And I was hesitant because I want to see some players level up. I wanted to see Keller show last year was no fluke. I want Gunther to play like he is now. I want a Kooley to show he's the number one center.

And I think we're starting to get all of that where I've seen some like genuine movement from my model in terms of where Utah ranks, where to start the season, I have them closer to average and now I have them knocking on the door of the top 10. And obviously you look at their record and you might think that is a little crazy, but they are a power play away from being a very good team. And I think they have the fourth best goal differential in the West. At the moment, they're just not getting the bounces when it comes to getting wins.

Yeah, I'm curious to see what they do with their top four. I know you're kind of hinting at that. You included Schmidt as one of your more underrated players, but the combination of him and Marino have been so good. And the combination of Sergichib and Turkey and Turkey missed a lot of time coming back has not been not as good, especially from a results perspective. I think part of it is probably a combination of like Schmidt's 34, so you don't necessarily want to be playing him an insane amount of minutes at this point of the year.

Jersey's working his way back and then they're paying Sergachev over $11 million this season in terms of actual salary. And so you're kind of trying to make that work and giving him all the premium stuff, especially on the power play. But it's pretty clear like one pair has just been significantly better than the other. And the usage hasn't necessarily caught up with that yet. Yeah, Sergachev is getting some of the toughest minutes in the league. And the fact he's playing with Dersey, who's just another, I think, offensive. defensively oriented guy. It just feels a little confusing that you wouldn't shift some of those matchups over to Schmidt and Reno, who are both, I think, leaning defensively and have put up

really strong results. I, Sergei was great last year. I think he is a good defenseman, and a lot of his results this year are probably influenced by the difficulty of his minutes. But if you're seeing that he's sort of not doing well in those minutes, I think it's time to tone them down a bit. I think that's a signal you should be getting. Here's the next question. Would a team ever acquire an entire line from another team of the deadline?

I'm thinking of a fourth line like Pittsburgh's of Duer Lazot and Achari that could just slide into a contender essentially and be their fourth line based on how well they've been playing together. Now, this question was sent in before Blake Lazott's three year extension that was announced a couple days ago. So I think that would complicate this specific example, Dura and Achari are impending UFAs.

But you mentioned Drans. He's been pitching this concept for like five straight years on our fake trade show, in particular with defense pairs where he's like, what if we just take this lefty and righty from this bad team and just put them on a good team and keep playing them what that would look like. I think it would be an interesting concept. Obviously, I think the logistics of the salaries aren't as important here because all these guys make very little this year. but just in terms of like adding three roster players like this for a lot of teams, I think it would be difficult and good teams generally have depth up fun as we talked about off the top. But I do think as like a just a science experiment, I think it would be really fun. Yeah, I can think of two teams specifically where this actually could work this year.

I'm just scrolling through all the teams. One team is not going to make the playoffs, so it's a moot. But like the Rangers could use an entire fourth line. That'd be nice. Well, they could use the first second and third line, too. Yeah, they could. But you at least can figure that Panera and Zabinajad are good. Yeah.

Zvin Jad, I think, has a strong bounceback, good for him. But the bottom six just looks horrible. And the other one is a team, shockingly in a playoff spot, which is San Jose. I think if you stop giving minutes to Barclay Goodro, Ryan Reeves, and Tide Laundria is injured, but a few minutes for him, too, Like, I think give that team a real fourth line and maybe like one real defenseman, they could genuinely be a team that wins a couple games in the playoffs. Yeah, and this, you know, this Penn's fourth line has been awesome this year.

And in particular with the way Dan Muses using them where they've been out there for 22 offensive zone draws versus 109 in their own zone. And that's freed them up to play guys like Malkin, Brazil, and Manta in the offensive zone, even Chinikov, since he came over via trade. but I do wonder beyond it not happening for other reasons, like the Penguins are legitimately hanging around in this playoff race for now. They're third in the Metro by points percentage. They're really good offensively despite getting shut out in Boston recently.

And they have so many picks coming over the next couple drafts, especially in the later rounds where you're not getting a premium asset for any of these guys, even packaged together. And so as long as they remain competitive, it almost feels like it's more valuable for them just to keep having these guys, if only just to let their players atop the lineup be able to succeed from a deployment perspective. Yeah, I think that's exactly what you want to see from a fourth line. I do factor for the fact they don't play a lot of top lines.

I factor for the fact that when you're playing that low, the pace is definitely a bit slower. So it's easier to put up good defensive numbers. And even with that, I've got those three's combined project net rating at plus 5.7 and the rest of the Penguins forwards at minus six and a half. So they're doing a lot of the heavy lifting to make that forward core average enough defensively. Here's the next question. Who are some candidates to bounce back in the second half,

whether it's due to regression, trade, or something else? I'll kick us off here while you think a little bit. Can I interest you in a little in Jordan Cairo as a candidate here? you you can i i think the entire blues lineup might be an interesting candidate because of how good they were under montgomery last year and how everyone has completely fallen apart um i am still stunned looking at kairu's defensive numbers and i wonder if he should be freed off that leash a bit to get back to the player he once was, but he has been shockingly effective at driving play this year. So I can see

him having a bigger year. And if he goes literally anywhere else, I can see a huge change for sure. Yeah, it's absurd that they're dead last in scoring in a league that where the Kings and the flames exist, for example. He is getting outscored at 515, despite as you mentioned 63% expect a goal share, 64% high-danger chance share 5-15, his shooting percent. And he was pretty much a lock to be like 14, 15% for four or five straight years is below nine this year. And he's playing a ton with Braden Shen.

And you look at his splits with Shen versus with Robert Thomas. And that's partly usage based in terms of what you were saying. It explains a lot of it. He's playing two minutes less per game. And there's a bunch of teams. I mean, pretty much any team that's good would benefit from his playing style and how dynamic is as an offensive player. I do think like I'm going to have. to put together some fake trades in a couple

weeks for him going to the Washington Capitals. I feel like what they've done in terms of he's not a reclamation project at this point but in terms of like buying lower on guys who are at this stage of their career and they're kind of mid to late 20s and

have previously been good and then getting that out of them again once they come to Washington and how much I think they need like another dynamic creator and score I feel like he would be a perfect fit for the capitals in their top six on the right wing. Yeah, he definitely fits their ammo, and I think he would do really well there. I've looked around the league, and it's kind of hard not going with the two disappointing

teams we already talked about. Like, I maybe it'll take a coaching change to make it happen, but I feel like this Kings, some of these players have a lot more to give, like Bifil and Campay, we mentioned for sure. On the Devils, you look at Hughes, Heesh or Brat, they're all way lower than their usual scoring pace and I can see them having a monster second half. Hughes looks way better the last two games and if he's back, I think the

Devils might be back with him. Yes, I'm going to call him that the Duggy Hamilton effect. So we'll see. All right, here's an interesting question for you. Anaheim's in a predicament with the right side of their defense. Jacob Truba's the only one of the bunch who's played relatively well this year and we know he's far from a perfect defenseman. He's also a UFA this summer.

And if they don't resign him, their right hand depth for the next year is Helleson, Moore, and Luno. If they keep falling out of a playoff spot, they could get a nice return for them at 50% retained, but it would set next year's roster back even further. What's a realistic strategy for you for the ducks to take care with Truban in general, I think,

just figuring out not only their defensive environment, but especially the right side since all of their young guys are left-handed. Man, is it a tough question? Because I, like, even Truba, if we're calling that like a success, story that is not ideal you look at the defense market and I don't love the Rasmus Anderson fit there because I think he like I think he's better than his underlying numbers

suggest but like defensively he's just adding more question marks to that ducks back and that's been their problem for a long time he doesn't really solve it um I mean John Carlson maybe but like how much gas is he going to have a tank. It feels very Alex Kalloran-like in terms of getting a guy who used to be really good, who probably won't be. And again, like his thing is, like, I think he would add a lot of offense to the blue line that can help their young core. Maybe they just decide to win game six-five.

But I don't know. It's very, very dicey where they might have to trade one of those young left-handed guys for a young right-handed guys. I'm just not sure who that could be. And it doesn't help that I think Lecombe is the only one who's really shown himself to be a quality player at the NHL level. Like Selweger has been decent, but he's, I think, slipped back a bit during this recent low. Yeah, I think they need to be careful about it in terms of finding someone. And this is easier said than done in terms of a prime age right-hand defenseman. We know those guys aren't very available generally, especially in,

restricted free agency. But getting some... Is Frank Clark available? Yeah, that'd be nice. Let's combine these two teams. The King's defensive environment with the, with the Ducks forwards and playing style. That'd be kind of fun.

Because they've done this the past couple off seasons, right? Where they go out and bring in veterans and then they start playing. It's like, it doesn't really make sense stylistically. And these guys can't really move around as well. And so it's not a good fit. So I think they need to be careful in terms of age range and and window. I feel confident the one thing I know about this question. The answer is never more Drew Hellison. I cannot understand why he's third on this team in usage. Every time I watch,

it's a disaster, but the numbers are just as bad somehow. So yeah, a lot of questions. Like Lecombe's extension kicks in next year, but Minchikov Zell Weger and Moore are all RFA's. Goodos and Trubar are expiring. It really hurts them that Gudis fell off of the age cliff the way he did because if he had been what he was a couple years ago, this would answer a lot of the questions. But unfortunately, at this stage, he was just not that player anymore. Is there an offer sheet? Oh, Brent Clark is a RFA. Is it time for an $11 million offer sheet to your rival team? Maybe. I don't know if they're, they're in a very scary stage to be dishing out first rounders in an offer sheet. But if you are like 100% sure that Brent Clark is that

guy, that could be fun. I know this goes against what I just said in terms of age bracket, but Dougie Hamilton honestly would make a lot of sense for them, especially with like, I know that it hurt his production, but he was used in a more defensively oriented way this year and has still been driving good underlying numbers and obviously has the puck skill still. And we just said how we think he has more juice left in the tank that his numbers would suggest. And so for a guy who's obviously available, because the devils want to clear his salary and and make room on the right side.

I think he'd probably be the most intriguing one from like a skill set perspective, I think. Yeah, and for Hamilton, I feel like there'd be a lot less noise in Anaheim. That would be helpful as well. Does Mijikov for Nemich swap make sense? I guess. It does from a hand in this perspective.

But yeah, I don't know. I'm the last believer. both guys seemingly. So I don't know. It would be interesting, but I'm not sure. I guess if you're the ducks, you do need to, like, it would make sense from an age perspective. They have so much.

I know they have a lot of RFA's, especially with Carlson and Goce as well this off season, but they have more cap space than you can use. I feel like the move is to try to leverage that somehow to even if it's a guy. And I think that's what Hamilton's a great example, because you said he's not necessarily a $9 million defenseman, but he's still really good. And if you're the Ducks, it doesn't matter if he's not a $9 million defenseman, as long as he's good in a top four role, which he obviously still is. How do you factor in the largely unexpected results from this compressed Olympic

schedule season into future models? Are you seeing weirder stuff under the hood in terms of, especially when it comes to, like, rest. I was thinking about this. I had Arpin Basua on talking about the habs earlier this week on the show. and he was noting how, like, they completely just cratered in the back half of that game in Washington the other night,

and they played so many games leading up to it. And I imagine that's at least partly responsible. Obviously, a lot of teams are going through this where there's so many, like, three and four nights, five and seven, whatever. It's going to be the case the rest of the way as they try to make the schedule work with the two and a half weeks or whatever they're taken off.

Is it kind of just like a one-off or is it something there, it's not necessarily a big deal and also the NHL regular season is always just a grind and it's kind of it comes to the territory. Yeah, I watched, I have watched the Leafs get absolutely smacked by Utah after playing a really good game against Colorado and I had a similar thought where I'm like a schedule loss has never been a more schedule loss than this year where it just feels like the second half of back back for a lot of teams has been a right off. I don't know how I would account for that other than praying and hoping that it's not a big difference but like I look at my Leafs rating after that game and they dropped a lot and in my head I'm like I know why they didn't play that well I

burn the tape burn the data but from my perspective I keep it in and they look a lot worse and Utah looks a lot better because of it and it might make sense to have some sort of adjustment for those kind of games in a model. I just don't have the technical prowess to pull it off. And so I just got to hope that because it affects everyone, it evens out. One thing I did notice about this NHL season and weirdness, I don't know if it's just because we are only like halfway through, but the correlation between wins and cool differential has like never been lower. Like going back to like 1970 because I was checking through a bunch of old data yesterday for like goals per win.

And this year the correlation is usually around like 0.95 during the shootout era, it dropped like 0.85 before they got 3 on 3 over time. And then for every year before that it was somewhere between 0.85 and 0.95. This year is 0.7. is the R2. It's just there's, there's a very, there's a much looser relationship between goals and wins. And I wonder if that's just teams

on those night off saying, all right, whatever, 3-1, it's over. It's 6-1 now. The end. Yeah, that would certainly, certainly make a lot of sense. All right, buddy.

Let's get out of here. I'll let you promote some stuff. And tell the listeners a little bit about the 16 stats as well. We got into a couple other things you wrote in there. Is there anything we didn't get to that you think it would be interesting on the way out here?

We got to a lot of, lot of it. Yeah, we basically just went through your article. We, like, we were talking about talking about this and a lot of stuff that readers were asking about, a lot of stuff we were thinking about, like we were on the same page, which is nice. I like 16 sets because it offers me a chance to go through the trends of the league and see, like, what has happened over the last two weeks, what I'm noticing. It's sort of a notebook that is definitely crib from Elliott Freeman's 32 thoughts. And I, I like having an analytics version, nice little. look around the league and it leads you to things like Andrew Cop being unbelievable over the last

month and a half. Who knew other than Detroit? Now everyone knows that Andrew Cop is sick as hell again. Hi, buddy. Yeah, I love it now. He's been very good, certainly on that second line. Yeah, no, I think we got through a lot of it. This was fun as always. If you want to help us out and enjoy today's show, give us a five-star review. Wherever you listen, join the PDO guest Discord as well. As I said, you can get in questions for future mailbags. I'm sure we're going to do another one with Dom here at some point. In the second half, subscribe to the PDOCAS Patreon. I had a newsletter out this week about Matthew Schaefer,

breaking down some of the stuff he's doing off the rush, Arp and Basu on for a HABS deep dive for our subscribers to get in there for all the extra content. And that's going to be all from us this week. I hope everyone is a great weekend. We'll see you back here on this feed on Sunday night for our Sunday special with Drans. Thank you for listening to the HockeyPediocat streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.