The Hockey PDOcast - Offseason Takeaways Extravaganza, Part 2

Episode Date: July 11, 2023

In Part 2 of our offseason takeaways extravaganza, Thomas Drance joins Dimitri to talk about the Devils handling their business so efficiently, why we're still so excited about Our Sabres, how bad teams tried to weaponize their endless amounts of cap space this summer, and the Predators aggressively attempting to change their vibes as an organization. This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Welcome to the Hockey P.D.O.cast, my name is Dimitra Filipovich and joining me graciously giving us time during his vacation. My good buddy, Thomas Drenz, Tom. What's going on, man? I'm really bad at taking vacation. Yeah, you were like, all right, day two of vacation. How can I spend it? Let's talk free agency, baby. In fairness, you asked me. You don't often. Yeah. So I decided I'd come in, do one show with you. It's my last show for the rest of the month of July. And then we're going to go have some pops and watch Mission Impossible. So it's all good. Yeah, I play the friend card in return. I will allow you to send me as many notes on our league

league as your heart desires, although I would allow you to do that anyways. So I did part one earlier with Harmon to kickstart our kind of catch up of what I miss between shows. And now you're using the other side of the athletic Vancouver hive mind. That's right. And we're going to try to pick up where we left out. There's still plenty of meat left on the bone.

We talked about a few key topics with harm, but obviously there's so much ground to cover so we couldn't do it all. So hopefully you and I will be able to fill in the gaps here today. Let's start with the New Jersey Devils. And this one kind of feels like cheating a little bit because initially when I was thinking about the concept of this show, I was like, all right, let's kind of focus on a free agency and winners and losers or what teams did. And the Devils didn't really do anything on the unrestricted free agent market, right? They just kind of handled their own business.

And that's actually why they are the big winners because they essentially, built out their team or kept all their key players through much more efficient means than going out and spending in the UFA market. The extensions to me are the biggest part of what the Devils did this summer. And, you know, eight and a half for Tim O'Meer, but the structure of the deal is extraordinarily team friendly. And doubly so because Tim O'Meer had a $10 million queue. Right?

Like, it's really hard to emphasize just how volatile and interesting that makes his situation. Yeah. I mean, we've basically never seen a $10 million QO on a second contract, certainly not a second contract bridge. We'll never see it again because they've literally changed the rules. And so to navigate that the way they did and get a pretty team friendly agreement done despite it and to get Yesper Bratt done at a good. at a good number given the way that Brat bet on himself and then that paid off. And yet the devil still come out with a team-friendly deal for him. I mean, that's the benefit of, I think, having the most year-over-year,

like the biggest year-over-year points jump that we've seen in the cap era. But, I mean, they got everything they needed to get done, and they got everything they needed to get done, done reasonably. And then they turned the pick that they got for Damon Severson's signing rights, who I doubt that they were even interested in retaining and turn it into Colin Miller. Yep. And then they also land Tyler to Foley for a song.

I mean, hard to think of anyone who's had a better offseason than them. Yeah. Well, let's take those... The rich got richer, basically. Let's take those one by one. Brat, 7.8 to 7.5 for eight years. Those are his age 25 through 32 seasons.

He's already worth that now. If the cap goes up the way we think, it's just going to accrue more and more value throughout those primers. Meyer, as you mentioned... Would you... Would you have to think long and hard, take cap numbers out of it entirely? Just players.

Yesper Bratt or William Nealander. Like, don't you think that's closer than people realize? I like both guys. I do love Willie, though. I think Yesper Bratt's just like so much faster. I think he's a little more unique. I'm just saying it's at least a reasonable discussion point. Right.

So, and I'm only bringing that up. Well, certainly the Leafs are not getting William Nylander at 7.0.5. That's what I'm saying. Yes. Well, and also, like, I'm not going to kill whatever team does end up, whether it's Toronto or anyone else, signing William Nealander for 10 million. I think he's worth that. Yeah. It's more a testament to the value that I think the New Jersey Devils are getting on Brat because I think he's that caliber of, like, supporting offensive talent.

Certainly. And then Meyer 8.8 for 8 years. Now, there's a bit more risk there because he's further along in his career, right? So that's age 27 through 34. And plays a style that doesn't always age well. Yes, as you mentioned, though, turns 32 at the start of the 28th season, right? By then, 54 million of the 70 will have been paid off. And his no trade clause moves down from full to just 15 teams.

So the devils, I think, know what they're doing in that regard in terms of they're going to milk as much they can out of Timom Meyer over the next four years and then deal with whatever they need to at that point. It's a big market swing, too, from the Josh Harris group for, you know, a devil's franchise that hasn't traditionally been one of the, like, higher revenue, higher spending teams in the NHL. I suppose they sort of were toward the back end of the pre-salary cap era, but that's because they were winning cup after cup after cup. There's an element to which, you know, one thing to bear in mind, right, as we approach 2020. and what teams might look for? Like, is there an argument to be made? And will teams whose owners prefer not to spend money like this suggest, perhaps, that this is an example of circumvention,

or at least it's providing the devils with the ability to creatively maximize the benefit of the cap because they've got this front-loaded deal, right? Or sorry, front-loaded deal. And by paying him more cash early, they are effectively manufacturing additional hockey value toward the back end. Right. This is the sort of thing that I think drives the general managers and the owners of like smaller market teams or teams that spend less freely, like a little bit mad.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHL try and sort of create an environment where like contracts are what they say they are under the cap in the next CBA. Yeah, that sucks. Yeah, no, I agree with you. creativity is good for everybody. Of course. Not a value judgment so much. I could see that as well. Yeah.

They stole Tyler DeFoli from Calgary after he made it publicly known that he wanted to leave. And the reason they were able to do so is I think every contender in the league was like, yeah, I would love Tyler DeFoli for $4.25 million. Very few of them could justify absorbing any money on any winger without like meaningfully shedding money elsewhere and like moving stuff around. it doesn't make sense, whereas New Jersey was one of the few teams that could just basically pluck him and say, yeah, we'll just add Tyler Tofoli because we can do so. And he's going to be, I mean, you're obviously very familiar with Tyler Tofoli's game, having

covered it closely. Like he is, I think, perfect for this team because the one thing he's not good at is he's kind of slow so he doesn't really carry the puck up the ice that much. But he will always be on the ice with at least one, if not two otherworldly puck carriers. and so he'll essentially just get to hang out in the slot and get one great A chance after another, especially if he's playing with Jack Hughes. And so he's going to have a monster season, I think, in his top six.

I think it'll be really good for them too on the power play. I think he's a really smart power play player. When he was in Vancouver, he played Netfront. He was great in that spot. I think he's a really good playmaker from down low and that's a super valuable commodity, especially given all of the shooters. there's like, Timo Meyer in your mind's eye should be the guy who's down low.

But I'd go with Tofoli because he's the, his playmaking from down below the goal line, I think will add a nice element for this Devils team at five on four. Well, and is there a bigger, like, jump in offensive environment than going from last year's Calgary Flames team to this version of the New Jersey Devils? Like, that is, that's a great spot for Tyler DeFoli to get one more big contract, I think. I also think going from Thomas Tatar or Tomash Tatar to Tyler Tavoli is like a big, big upgrade for the devils. Yeah. And they don't have to change, you know, the initials of their passenger second line, right? Yes.

And so they bring back Hala Bastion and McLeod, right? But I think they correctly deemed that their own UFAs were kind of like superfluous to like what they need. And so they, I really don't think they gave much thought to even getting involved in. That's why when you mentioned like Severson, it's like, I'm sure there was like a, you know, just a customary call. Like, just like, oh, like, what's, what do you, what do you think in here? Thank you for your time. But there's never really considered, I don't think. You know, we're willing to sign you for an eighth year and trade you if there's a team interested and you have permission to go find, figure that out.

Well, and think about this. So, Severson gets 50 million over four years from Columbus. Ryan Graves gets 27 million. Yeah. Over eight years, yeah. 50 million over eight. Ryan Graves gets 27 million over six years from Pittsburgh. Miles Wood, as one of the most shocking terms that I saw,

gets six years, 15 million from the abs. I think just to keep his AAB down as much as possible. Wild, though. All nice players, not ones they needed. And think about that. Those are like the three biggest terms, I think, that we saw of any players switching teams get and significant money.

And I don't think the devils are any worse off for it, which just speaks to the position they were in to begin with, Right? And like, now you look at this blue line and say, all right, we lose Severson and Graves. They get Colin Miller for a 2025 fifth or something and he'll be basically either him or Brendan Smith can kind of just rotate as a third pair right shot. But I really want to see that, that Simone Emmett's Luke Hughes supercharged third pair where they get the 90% offensive zone starts against just the other team's bottom six and just absolutely roast them in those minutes. I'm sure at some point Hughes will play himself into a top four with Marino. but, um,

well, Nemich might too. I mean, Nemich was historically good in the American League for a D plus one defenseman. Yeah. I mean, these are not, you know,

run of the mill young players, right? These guys are top five draft pedigree and have sort of shown since their draft year that they were well worth those picks. So, no, I mean, the devils are absolutely laughing.

And, and, you know, I think they're, what, they've got the fourth best cup odds. I think they're, position themselves is like a favorite in the east, I think.

I think so too. There's a lot of work to be done between now and the playoffs, certainly. Vegas thinks so too, too. Like, the only team with better Stanley Cup odds than the New Jersey Devils is the Toronto Maple Leafs at the moment, and that's, you know, reflective of them being a public team more than anything. I mean, the point that I want to make about all this is the reason why they were able, like, why they've been so efficient and why they're able to do this stuff is having Jack Hughes

and EcoHissure signed for $15.25 million for essentially like the meat of their 20s, like the rest of their prime seasons, is, is that the biggest competitive advantage that any contender has? Right now, now that Nathan McKinnon is getting paid a salary that's reflective of, yeah, of his value? Like, it feels like it is. And so all of a sudden, you can just go out and you're afford this luxury of just basically splurging on all these auxiliary pieces. It's like, do we need Timomeyer? Not necessarily. I'm sure we could kind of make it work and piece together with an inferior winger, but we have the room, so why not? Let's go get them. And then they get them. They retain them. Same with Brat. They go out and add to Foley. And

like, this is how you build your team proactively as opposed to always being one step behind and paying everyone what they're actually worth because that's really tough a way to build out your roster in a cap world. The Alex New Hook deal that got signed today by Montreal. So that's four times 2.9 million. Now, I'm not the biggest Alex New Hook fan. I mean, we watched those crack in Avalanche games in the first round, right? And it was like, you know, New Hook was among the players that we sort of came away from that game thinking like the Avs kind of need to upgrade on these guys, right? Yeah, I was like, Alex Nehook was playing in those games?

Yeah, I know. And yet, you know, you just got 30 points in consecutive seasons and maybe Montreal still views him as a center. But, I mean, once you sign a guy at four times 2.9, right? Like 2.9 million, it's like if you're a average third liner, you're basically, you're basically providing value. Like all of a sudden, New Hook doesn't need to be the guy

we thought he could be coming out of dib one when he was just destroying the NCAA. He can just be like middle six supporting offensive guy 35 points at five on five and he's worth three million dollars. Like all of a sudden you've got runway and you contrast that with, for example,

Vancouver gets Neals Hoaglander done 1.1 times two. That's probably like 300, 350K cheaper than we would have expected a player with Neal's Hoaglander's scoring track record, which, by the way, is not a ton different than Alex Newhooks over the course of their ELCs, right? It's like a 10 point difference. Right.

That's like less than we would have expected Hoaglander to come in at on a two-year deal. And to get that locked in this early in the summer without like the grind of, you know, the classic wait till the eve of training camp with your non-arbitration eligible RFA second contract guy. Like to get certainty and a low cap number like that is, is. good. But it's better to sign the new hook deal because the bar is so low now for what new hook needs to provide Montreal. The downside is negligible because his age allows a one-thirds buyout if he really does not level up to be anything whatsoever. And the potential upside is massive. And I think the Hughes and Heeshire bets are just like the absolute apex version of that. It's like, It would be cool to have one Nathan McKinnon, but you know, it would be really cool, would be to do it twice.

And that's what the, that's what the devils did with their one and two Cs. Heeshire and especially Hughes, like, those numbers caused some sticker shock when they were first done. Now, I also think there were a lot of people who said, well, you can recreate, you know, I think, especially with the Hughes deal where it was like, wow, what a great smart bet to take advantage of Hughes's slow start to his career. Yeah, what are the chances that his shooting percentage will remain 6% or whatever it was. unbelievable. Yeah. So I think we could see it coming, but the point is, is if you're not placing those bets where the number scares you a little bit and makes you a little bit uncomfortable,

you're also not placing a bet that has a chance to make a huge difference for your team. New hook on a very small scale. Yeah. At least has that opportunity. If he becomes a top six guy and you get like two years of top six contributions for 2.9, it's still not he sure and, and, um, Jack Hughes at 15 combined, but like that's how that's how you can build a team with the sort of depth you require to contend these days. Well, I wasn't even going to get to that now, but I guess

it would make sense to touch on a little bit here. One of the other themes that I was thinking about over the past week or so was this idea of kind of like to bridge or not to bridge, especially for young defensemen, right? We saw the abs. And that's, I think, a unique circumstance because with Byram going in the two years because there is so much uncertainty around his health, right? Like, I understand that from that perspective. I'm sure from the player's perspective, like you don't want to sign off of the durability issues

you've had when you're as good as Bowen Byron. And as young as you are for like the most productive seasons theoretically career. I mean, is there any doubt in your mind? Like if I told you you can have one guy for tomorrow to play with Cal McCarr, Bowen Byram or Devon Taves. Like, it's close, right? Right? Yeah.

It's close. Yeah. And yet don't you think Devon Taves is going to be like an $8.5 million player next summer? So, you know, it's hard to commit long term in Bowen Byram situation, I think. Well, the other two guys, though, are Evan Blouchard with the Oilers, right? Where, I mean, they just kind of don't have a choice at this point. Maybe if they had bought out or found someone to take Jack Campbell off their hands, they could have opened up enough money. Yeah, good luck with that, right?

But going like a two-year bridge with him. What about C-C? I still don't know if it's enough, right? Because they have $5.6 million in space right now with both him and Ryan McLeod as RFAs. Yeah, and McLeod's arbitration algebra, right? Yes. And so if you go two years with Bouchard, he's going to be, I think, 26 when that expires. And what's his value going to be considering that he's coming off a stretch now where he had 36 points in 33 games after Tyson-Berry got out?

Like, if there was a bet on a player to be worth almost twice as much on the open market or like what their contractual value is compared to now, he would be right up there on top of that list, right? Or scarier if you walk him to arbitration. Yeah. And he's going to have, you know, second or third most five on five minutes, power play one. It's like, you know, Mr. Arbitrator, sir. My case speaks for itself. My client runs the first power play unit from the point, and that power play unit is historically the best.

And he's got a point per game over the last two years. Like, arbitrator just, like, laughs and gives you your reward. Yeah. Yeah, I think Keandre Miller is obviously now going to put up that level of offensive counting stats, right? But he's also a player where I would, like, he's 24 right now. I would just, if I were the Rangers and I was in their shoes, I would just be trying to get him for the rest of his 20s

under any circumstances possible right now. Especially because his player type is the one that I'm most leery about wanting to sign into their 30s. And that's not a criticism of Kander Miller, but so much of his value is tied up in playing a physical defensive style, right? Like, yeah, and skating ability. But also he's a player who hits a lot and takes a lot of hits. And those are the guys you have to be really careful about over committing to

into their 30s. Yeah. In my view, anyway. He's the guy, he's the guy you want, absolutely want to buy their entire 20s

right away, if you can. Yeah, especially since I think he does have like, much more to offer offensively than he's shown at this point. And you see it sort of in these like, electrifying flashes.

And it might be one of those things where it never actually, he's not going to probably do that on a regular basis, but I think there's more in there than, than he's shown. So, um,

they've also, they've also been so stuck in their pairs. It's like how, how often have we seen, in Miller Foxman. It's five on five. Yeah. I mean, we've seen it, but not.

Not as much. You know, like, I mean, there's, it, it feels like they're still scratching the surface in New York of their potential with an awful lot of their young players, in part because there just hasn't been much open-mindedness to try different solutions given, given their lineup. So, do you think that's going to change under Peter Lavielette's tutelage? Who knows? Who knows? One final note on the Devils before we move on, we should cover other teams here. Although the Devils are awesome,

so why wouldn't we talk about them as much as possible? If you, let's say you pencil in Alexander Holtz is there 12 forward right now. And then you give Kevin Ball a reasonable RFA deal that he'll probably sign because he doesn't have a lot of leverage. Also, Kevin Ball is good, by the way. He is, but he's not going to command, like, right? He doesn't have a lot of leverage in terms of like he's...

The defensive defenseman with limited counties, yes, and no arbitration rights. Let's say you bake both of those two contracts into their cap sheet. The amount you have left over, if you combined VTEC VTHAVNs $3.4 million salary, comes out to nearly the perfect amount for one Connor HalaBuck. Wow. I love that. So I think of Vannacheck with futures, whether it's some prospects or picks or whatever,

is very doable. Now I understand why New Jersey would be hesitant just because of like, an extension or whatever. Like I wouldn't even, I would almost take it one year at a time and just try to win a Stanley Cup this season. But if you are serious about winning a Stanley Cup and as you said, they have the fourth best odds.

And I think you and I would both view them as one of the best, if not the best teams of the East. It's a conversation you at least need to have. So I wanted to throw that out there. Because that conversation just died down a little bit, right? At the start of the odd season, there was a lot of Hellebuck noise. And then now with him and Shafley,

like no one's really talked about it at all. So the thing that I think the devils have to be really conscious of here to, is, you know, when was the last time we saw a team at a goaltender in mid-season and that goaltender get hot and lead them on a run? You know, Dwayne Rollison, have we seen it since then? So. I mean, the goalies move so rarely in season, too, though, right?

Totally. But when they do, it feels like it feels like it takes them a bit to adjust to what they're trying to do in front of them. So, you know, I don't know. I think if you're going to get Hellebuck and I definitely would love if they did something like that because, you know, the only flaw in that roster is in net. And I don't even think it's a flaw. It's just, it could be better. Helibuck to me is truly elite. And yeah, I mean, he would have the same vibe that Vasselowski is so often had in Tampa Bay where it's like,

wow, they're unfairly good. And they've got Vasselowski. And that's like, that's a sweet spot to be in if you're in an HL team. Okay, here's my segue for you. We both agree the devil's rock, right? We really enjoy them. We were high on them heading into this season. We were vindicated. Another team we were high on. We were vindicated. Let's just remove the Anaheim Ducks from that. Well, we'll also talk about Anaheim Ducks. Don't you worry. Another team we were high on, though, that I simply cannot be talked out of being irrationally excited about. Maybe it's rational, though, is our Buffalo Sabres. Yeah. A team I'm just deeply, deeply excited about. And I can't wait to watch them next season. I think they're building something really special that's going to extend for well

beyond that. And nothing they've done so far this offseason has done anything to cool me off in that regard. No. Adding Zach Benson after he slipped to them at 13th overall in the draft. Oh, what a home run. Absolutely slam dunk. I think at EP ringside, we had him fifth overall. He's as likely as anyone other than that, I guess, top three to be like an impact player out of this class. Fifth overall at EP ringside, number one in our hearts. Undoubtedly, I mean, that level of puck skill with the motor in terms of forechecking is almost a combination that can fail in today's game. Guy is, what, second in WHL history at scoring as a 16 and 17 year old, right? Number one's Baderd.

And up until like the last week of the regular season, he had more short-handed than power play goals. Like, come on! So you add him to a group of four prospects that includes Yuri Kulich, who had 31 goals in 74 H.L. Games is an 18-year-old. Noah O'Sland, who they took 16th overall. Matthew Seboi, who did it. They took 9th, who is the inferior player on that Winnipeg-Ice team this season, just only because of how good Zach Benson is.

But also sick. And, of course, those two are good friends. Yep. And Isaac Rosen, who they also took 14th overall previously. Not to mention Jack Quinn, who's unfortunately hurt now, but he's 22 and we'll be back. Buterca, cousins, crebs, and then tuck and tager, like the old guys at 26 and 27. and it's obviously a very scintillating forward group. Now, the reason why I wanted to talk about them here is the one big move they did make in free agency was bringing in Connor Clifton, right?

And if you listen to this podcast and you previously thought, well, this guy talks way too much about Connor Clifton, I got some news for you. This year, I will be talking even more about Connor Clifton. Is Connor Clifton one of your guys? Absolutely. He's been one of my guys for a long time, too. Oh, I mean, I was absolutely furious when the Seattle Cracken took Jeremy Lozahn over him in the expansion draft and simply could not be talked down. Yeah, no, I know. And then people were like, why do you care so much about this?

And so I had to move on and find other. They ended up getting a good return for Lozahn. They did, yeah. But Clifton, so three years, 3.33 per for his age 28 through 30 seasons. And, like, he's listed at 5-11, and I think that's why people aren't very, very. high on him, but he plays... Like a Mack truck? He plays like you'd think Brandon Carlo should play at

6-4 or 6-5 or whatever he's listed at. Now, certainly, like, makes mistakes sometimes just because he plays... It's a defenseman. Well, no, but he also plays above his, like, plays above his means in the sense that sometimes he tries to do, like, Kail McCarar stuff out of nowhere, and he's like,

you're Connor Clifton. But I think like, Don Granato showed that one of his strengths as a coach right now is like he's very comfortable in just allowing players to be cool. And I think that's a very valuable skill as a coach for a young team. So I'll tell you a quick story. The Sabres beat the Canucks soundly.

And Tage Thompson ripped their heart out. And I was there in Buffalo and I saw the game live. And by the way, there was like 5,000 people. This was like the Nadeer Buffalo Sabres at the start of the, what, 2021, 2021, 2022 campaign. And they destroyed the Canucks. It was like a 5-3 victory. The reeling Canucks had like, a bag skate practice in Chicago the next day.

It was hilarious. And after the game, I'm talking to a Buffalo Sabres player in the bowels of that rink. And I said, oh, you guys are fun. And he said, is the funnest hockey I've ever played, complimenting Granados, coaching style in particular. He said, we skate fast and we don't hit anybody. It rules. Well, Connor Clifton's certainly going to try to hit people. Yeah, Connor Clifton's going to run people over.

So I like that. And I also, I like that it gives them, like, they brought in Eric Johnson or whatever. I think, like, that's kind of more like good vibes of veteran presence. But you know what? Really quickly, though, Eric Johnson, one thing that people. He struggled last year. I think, I think, I think his time might be up in this league. It might be.

But lots of teams go out and get that, like, third pair guy. Like, the one thing about Eric Johnson that I don't think is really appreciated is, is just how outrageously unique he is in terms of his. dimensions. Yeah. Like there was a long period of time where this guy was like, what, six foot four, six foot five. Are you suggesting that he's not six foot four anywhere?

No, he still is, but he's just, back in the day. There was once a time where he was tall and now he was not. Back in the day, he was also one of the fastest. Like, people couldn't get the puck off. It never mattered in terms of him being like an elite offensive defenseman because he wasn't. Yeah. But there was a certain uniqueness to his profile.

I like, given the pedigree defensemen that they have who also have, you know, unique size and gifts, both in Dahlin and obviously Owen Power. I think bringing in, you know, a first overall guy who struggled to meet expectations and has recently won the cup. Like there's something about the vibes fit of Eric Johnson in Buffalo that it feels particularly sharp as one of those character bets. And it's a one-year deal, right? Yeah, no, no, for sure.

But, you know, last year, Power played 700 minutes with Yoki Haru, 235 with Dahlian, 177 with Clegg, 172 with Lubushkin, 113 with Bryson, 112 with Samuelson. I think finding him a reliable partner who allows him to play the way he should be playing, which unfortunately Henry Okhiariu was not, is huge.

I'm not sure if that is Connor Clifton, but I think he's got a better chance of doing so. And I think there's like, mentioned untapped potential with Gondra Miller. I mean, Owen Power, like what he's capable of, if he's able to tap into that is just going to be out of this world. And so I think it could happen as soon as next year because we saw a lot of it last year.

But I think you could see, I think maybe before the season when we're doing a breakout show or something like I'm going to be hammering the table for Owen Power is going to emerge as, you know, up on the fringes of Norris Ballots, quality player next season. They do. I really think that's a cut. They do have nine defensemen signed to NHL deals, though, which I find. interesting in terms of how this roster is going to shake out and what their plan is or what they're going to try to do. And they haven't done anything in that yet either, right? And so I'm not sure if going

into the season with Eric Comrie and Devin Levi is going to be the plan. I think they're kind of trying to wait out this market and see if something falls into the lap. It might. Yeah. It might. And I mean, the way the goalie market shaped up in unrestricted for agency, I think everyone who didn't place a bet there is wise to have done so. Yep. Buffalo, by the way, last I checked, the Vegas odds was 25 to 1 to win the Stanley Cup. They had like worse odds than the Minnesota Wild. They had worse odds than like they're in the same range as like Calgary, like slightly better than Winnipeg.

There's no way. Like I think that's the best bet on the board right now in terms of like one of the long shot futures. Yeah. just because all of the teams in and around their area, just I can't even make the upside case for them emerging as a cup favorite. Yeah. But like I can see the upside case for Buffalo. So just spotlighting that one to, you know, bet vicariously through PDO cast listeners.

They also have so, I mean, it's not going to happen, but they have so many ways they can also theoretically improve, right? And that's the thing. A lot of these teams are so boxed in terms of their ceiling of like, even in the best case scenario, they just, they don't have. room to spread their wings, whereas not only can the Sabres make more moves, but their young players can also just take significant leads. They're going to lead the league in vibes, though, that's for sure.

So even if they don't win the Stanley Cup, they will win that. Over under 42.5 Buffalo Sabres games you'll watch this year. Like mash the over for me. I would set that line at 81.5 and I'll take the over. Tom, let's take a break here. When we come back, we'll try to rapid fire through at least a couple more teams. you are listening to the Hockey P.Dio cast streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. Breaking down the top stories in hockey and Elliot Friedman every day.

The Jeff Merrick Show. Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're back here on the HockeyPedio cast. Join my Thomas Trans Tom. While we were on break, we found out that Keondra Miller did in fact sign a two-year bridge for 3.9 per. So the New York Rangers were not listening to us while we were recording here in this little studio. But that's okay. Let's keep it moving.

I'll give you the floor here. Do you want to... Bad move, by the way. Can we just do the editorial? Of course. Should have, but yeah. I would bet on Kandre Miller for the next eight years, of course. But once again, very boxed in financially, they needed to get away,

get out from under the Barclay-Goodro deal and they weren't able to. The contrast, though, between the patience of the devils. Yes. Right? And the push chips into the middle of the table constantly, Rangers, I think, is only going to grow starker in the years ahead, especially given the... that the Rangers had a brief shining moment where they looked like the NHL's model rebuild and yes look like they've maybe capped the ceiling of what they can be okay so well i'll give you

the floor here then do you want to keep talking about rebuilding situations and talk about how teams weaponized cast face or lacked lack thereof in terms of efficiency or do you want to keep talking about the state of the Atlantic division since we did talk about the sabres before the break i'm interested in both the one thing i just say is i do think when you look at at how the market developed all summer. It felt like teams this time around facing what they believe clearly to be one last flat cap offseason just weren't willing to pay the freight. Like no one was willing to pay to get off of their mistakes.

We saw, you know, Mike Riley and Ekman Larson and Blake Wheeler. Like everyone was bought out as opposed to. Shane, even. Well, yeah, I guess. Yeah. Shane. Ryan, Hanson, yeah. Yeah.

And I'd argue that Anaheim was like the one team kind of willing. Sorry, Nashville and Philadelphia were like the two teams that were kind of willing to pay the freight to get off of some of their problem deals. But basically it was a, you know, two of 32 teams were willing to really do that. We weren't, we just didn't see teams like attach high value futures to get off of bad contracts or to solve their problems. Teams just weren't going to play in that market. And I think that's context that we have to keep in mind and understanding how the likes of Anaheim. and in Chicago and, you know, even Nashville to a lesser extent, sort of approached this offseason as rebuilding teams.

Was it because teams weren't willing to pay the freight or because the bad teams who could facilitate it weren't necessarily ambitious enough? Well, I mean, I think there's an understanding now. Like, if you're going to do a deal with Carolina, you're going to pay the freight. Yeah. And it just felt like those deals weren't there.

like teams were willing to part with Taylor Hall and Riley Smith. Like we saw teams willing to part with useful players for virtually free. I just don't think we really saw teams really willing to invest. I guess in, yeah, we weren't really willing to, we didn't see teams be willing to really invest in clearing cap space. I guess the only exception there would be L.A. Paying the second and- To get off of Petters. And Algae Gras.

So I used to saying Marcus and Elias Peders. I know, I know. Calvin Patterson. To get off Cal. And Walker as well. And even there, like the cost wasn't that outrageous. Not compared to what we've seen in the past. So it just felt like a very odd summer for that.

And I think that did kind of hurt rebuilding teams to some extent. I don't know that the teams that were careful to manage their cap space cleaned up the way I anticipated them to. Well, I mean, the Blackhawks, you know, And we should say a successful attempt to just completely unabashedly tank for Connor Bred got to their roster, right? And so they entered this offseason with virtually unlimited caps. I think 40 million or so in cap space. And so they had an endless supply of cap space and a distinct lack of NHL players.

Right. And so you were very interested in what they would do, understandably so, because it felt like they could facilitate any move they wanted, right? It was like, you want to grab a good player from another team. You can probably grab as many on them as you want. You want to get involved in some creative three-teamers to help kind of act as a third-party broker. You can do that if you want. And we didn't really see them do that.

Like they got Taylor Hall and that was pretty much it, right? They took Josh Bailey off the hands of the Islanders for like, I would say, 40 cents on the dollar. Like they certainly did not maximize value there. And maybe it's because of a lack of options. I just think that they're, without being. privy to some of these conversations. Like, I find it hard to believe that there weren't, like,

more kind of innovative ways to do this. Like, for example, here's an example. If the capitals who clearly wanted to be involved in free agency this off-season, right, they bring in a couple guys, they make that Joel Emerson trade, they made it known they wanted to get off of Anthony Manthos 5.7. If the Blackhawks take that

and retain half of it and flip it to, say, Edmonton in exchange for Warren Fogel, Right. It's a cap neutral move, essentially. I assume Ken Holland still really likes Anthony Manta. He's certainly struggled the past couple years, but he's also a powerful in his 20s,

who's not that long removed from being a coveted goal score. Way more upside than Fogel. I assume you could probably get both those teams to pay you to do so. Yeah. Not like a first rounder, of course, but I'm sure they could have gotten multiple assets in totality from a move like that. Now, I find it hard to believe that that was probably ever,

even explored or talked about. And so. Well, and then you get paid again when you retain half on Fogel and flip them. Of course. Just literally, it's like a, it's a domino. Just keep, keep doing it. Totally. Well, and I mean, they're clearly trying to do that with Folino and Corey Perry.

But I think there's a real risk. Well, doesn't the four, doesn't the $4 million almost make it, like, hard for most actual contenders to. I think so because $2 million is like on the high end for both those guys. You know, I even thought they would have been better off. going out and offering Kolaren like 10 times one. You know what I mean? Because Klorin with double retention at 2.5, that to me is the sort of trade asset that I really want to have come deadline season

as opposed to Perry at 2 million or Folino at 2 million, which to me is roughly their market value for a contender team or contending team. Yeah. So they spent 23 million. And to show for it, they have Taylor Hall, Andreas Atheniseu, Nick Falino, Ryan Donato, and Josh Bailey's buyout. I like Ryan Donato. Yeah, it was fine.

And I get the logic of like bringing in these like reliable veterans to, you know, help a daughter's transition and all that. And regardless of what they did this summer, it wouldn't have really mattered in terms of like making them competitive because there's such a long road ahead. I just thought there was potentially kind of more creative stuff that they could have done. And it might not seem like it matters that much now. But I think you and I both agree like there's an art to this.

And gaining small edges wherever you can eventually does. start to matter in the long run once you're ready to become good. So the ducks, let's lump them in here as well. They signed your boy Alex Collorn, 6.25 for four years, which was the most egregious signing of offseason. I know the Miles Wood six years was pretty tough, but Alex Colorn for his age 34 to 37 seasons, Radco Gutas for his age 33 or 35 seasons. I actually like the Goudis one, and I still prefer both of these moves to spending 35

on Strome and Vitrono like they did last summer. Yeah. It won't really matter just because they still have like 30 million in cap space with Terry and Zegris and Drysdale, I believe, to assign their RFA deals. But I don't know, do you have any notes on Kolaran and Goudis here or the Ducks? Because you mentioned them earlier, right? We were both very disappointed in their showing last season. And I still have hope that they can get there from an entertainment level. But, man, last year was bleak.

I can't ever seem to talk myself out of ducks off-season moves. And Coulorne and Radco Goudis are like two of my absolute favorites. Well, before we found out the terms for the Couloran deal, when I just found out that they were bringing in Couloran, and we knew they brought in Goudis, I sent you the godfather just when I thought I was out. They pulled me back in. I was like, ah, they got me again.

I know, they got me again. Yeah. And even once I saw the term, like if you're going to overpay some guys, make sure they're one of one. You know, Radco Goudis is the defensive defenseman that people think of when they talk about defensive defensemen, as opposed to all the other guys who are, you know, jeans models, right? Like, that look the part but aren't necessarily as effective as Radco has been over the course of his career. I almost see him as like the Shane Batier of hockey, right? It's like winning streaks and outrageous performances on a team level of kind of followed Radco around his whole career.

Is our preseason content going to be our guys, our long shot picks, aka show out the sabers, and then our jeans model guys? Yeah, jeans. You know what I'm saying? Of course, yeah. The guys who look the part, but they don't actually get it done. Radco Gutus looks the part and he gets it done. And those suits are incredible.

And then Coulorne, I mean, again, one of one. I remember being really surprised that everyone was so sure the Cracken would take Jan Gord. and quite rightly. Just because I thought Coulorne, I mean, where else do you find a guy who's, you know, a pretty consistent like 50 point 25 goal top of the lineup caliber power forward who's, yeah, as two-way results are beginning to fall off a little bit here. But, I mean, he's a really special player and has been his whole career. The thing that I don't like for a team like the ducks here and it won't matter because

they're not going to have enough good expensive players three years, four years from now anyways to matter. but it's unnecessarily restricting in terms of like you have so much cap space now that I would prefer like is Alex Cloran turning down a $12 million a one-year deal? Like if you really just want to bring him in as like a guy to have around some of these young players and then creatively move him at the deadline to compete for another Stanley Cup, like maybe he wants to be somewhere for four years and that's what it would have taken him to get him out of Tampa Bay. There's also the fact that your owner has to probably sign off on the $12 million. salary in one season as opposed to spreading it out over four years.

But I just... The thing is, it's not the 12 guaranteed versus 24 guaranteed, right, 25 guaranteed, which Colorn actually signed. It's that you spend 12 now and then. Right. You're still going to spend a bunch in years two, three, and four. Look, I would have loved to see someone make Killorn a massive one-year offer. I thought this was a perfect summer to do it.

I thought Chicago was like, I mean, you'll, you'll vouch for me. Like, I was obsessed with the fact that Chicago should go and make Klorin the highest paid player in the league for one year. That was like a thing I really wanted to see in that I thought would have been a smart move. But at the end of the day, you know, I think one thing we saw, not just from Anaheim, but from Perry and Folino in Chicago and then also from Shen and Ryan O'Reilly in Nashville is, you know, the teams that have a lot of cap space are teams that have a lot of

young players and the teams who have a lot of young players want solid upstanding citizens right you talk to anybody who's covered or worked with gudis colorn um you know o'reilly luke shen some of these guys i can vouch for personally yep like they're the best right there that you talk to media that have covered them they're the best quotes in the room they're the easiest guys to deal with like they're a good time at the rink they're they're pros in in a meaningful way and you know Those are the sorts of players that these teams clearly wanted to sign. If you're not, if you're just a good player and not also a good dude, what we've sort of learned this summer is that you kind of limit your market,

especially in a world where cap space is so restrained league-wide. That's a life lesson. Be a better person and good things will come your way. Yeah. But also, I will say, on the Goudis note, the Ducks were so egregiously bad defensively last year that it was almost became impossible to evaluate any. anyone, right? It's like when you're just giving up four goals against and 40 shots against

every single game, everyone is going to look bad. And so they change their coach. They're going to change the personnel. They also have both your boy, Zellweger and Minchukov coming up as left shots. And so I mean, I can think of guys who would be better caddies for them, but Guudis is a nice sort of placeholder as a bridge for those guys to enter the NHL and not just be immediately drowning. And so I like that. From that perspective, Ducks have a long way to go to build back the trust that's eroded in our relationship with them. But I'll be watching again next season. I mean, look, if Minchukov and Zelweger are on that team next year, I'm so in.

No doubt about it. Do you want to talk about the predators? You mentioned O'Reilly and Shen there. I mean, they were certainly. Barry Trots' serial winners? They've been the most active team since the start of the, I mean, even dating back to the trade deadline, right? pretty much since Barry Trots came in, you were stuck in Nashville,

as other media members were, but you started covering the Predators there for a little bit. I went and heard Barry's... So first of all, it was Barry Trots' first official day as GM, right? He'd obviously been busy. Yeah. And he opens the availability

and speaks, he's got like a, he's got notes prepped on every guy they signed, including like the guys who are like Milwaukee Bounder. Right. And it was like a 25 minute opener in which he, just explained who they signed, why they signed them, and what he was doing in which he referred

to Shen and O'Reilly repeatedly as serial winners. And, you know, by the time, like, if I had a better relationship with Barry, who I've never covered before. Yeah, it's your first day on the job. Yeah, my joke would have been like, Barry, I know it's your first day on the job, but like, you can leave some of the work to us, right? Like, that would have been my joke if it was the Canucks. And I thought that in real time. The, you know, So, I mean, I've got a lot of thoughts on this. One thing is, if you go back and watch that availability, Trots specifically credited Luke Shen with turning this series between the Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2020 bubble. He was like, Luke Shen's physicality turned that series.

And I was like, I was watching that series, man. Like, it was cooch. Yeah. Pretty sure it was Coocherov. I mean, they're pretty much the same player. But, I mean, I liked, here's what I like about Nashville. I liked that they shut down all their guys last year and then got just a bunch of absolute, you know,

run through a brick wall performances from like Thomas Novak and Cody Glass. Well, those was finally started like, they're like, oh, Philip Donosino, you're actually going to get a chance here. Totally. It's like, yes, they probably should have been doing this all along. And most of those guys were like just as good.

Now, their underlying number stunk. Soros hid an awful lot of issues. And when I sort of asked Trots about it, he specifically pointed out. into that. He was like, you could see we'd sort of found our level. Like, he knew he wasn't buying it. Right. And I appreciate that because he's right. But I think when you combine that energy that we saw last year with, you know, Roman Yossi, Barry and Philip Forsberg and UC Soros. Yeah. And, you know, then you bring in guys as fun as R.O.R. and Shen, it's just like, I don't know that Nashville is going to be good. But I don't think they're going to be bad, and I think they're going to have a blast. Like, I just think it's going to be a fun time at the rink for every member of the National

Predators next season, and especially with Andrew Brunette's on the tempo system. Like, you know, that's going to be, that's going to be like Buffalo Sabres-ish in terms of like, you know, we skate fast. We don't hit and we have a great time. Like, yeah, they're going to have a great time. Yeah, going from Heinz to Brunette. And if they actually are going to start giving these guys a real chance, like Tomasino, like Yuso Parson and like some of these guys that were playing in Milwaukee. I like

that quite a bit. I mean, since we started recording, they also signed Dennis Goryano for one year. It's like, just give me all of these like random guys who I could see having memorable nights at the rink. Like, yeah. I think they're going to be a fun time. Goryanov's perfect too because I legitimately think if you

put him at the right half wall on a decent power play unit. Like, I mean, maybe he's never the player I thought he could be three years ago. Yeah, I think that chip is sail. But could he be, could he be like a low-rent version of Mike Hoffman, like a DH who just, like, absolutely tunes it on the power play? I think he could be that. Yeah, it's been a while since we've seen that.

I know, but he can do it. Like, you don't lose the ability to be like a high-end. I can tell you watch that Star's Golden Night series in the bubble. Unbelievable. I was blown away. Yeah. I had so much Gouriano's stuff. Yeah, me too.

Me too. It was like, mm, Goryonov or hints? Yeah, I, so what was interesting about the Preds though was, and I think this ties into what you're saying there about like this idea of bringing in O'Reilly and Shannon just like having guys you want at the rink and sort of just changing whether, you know, we kind of scoff at this idea of like culture and all that, right? But like it seems like that really was the motivation for just getting Ryan Johansson and Matt Dushain out the door because even if they're not worth what their salary. where they're still like useful players and they didn't really need that those cap savings. It seems like it purely was a matter of just let's start fresh, right? Like that seems like that would be the logic behind what they did because you look at it now and it's like, all right, we're paying Ryan Johansson and Duchayne and Kyle Turris like $12 million

dollars two years from now. Right. Which might be irrelevant because I don't think they're going to be a Stanley Cup contender. But I think like they wanted to fundamentally change. what the organization is, and that was kind of a means to an end in that regard. It felt pretty Minnesota Wilde-esque, don't you think? Like, it felt very much like the Parisé suitor thing, where in order to take a step forward in terms of how they wanted to compete as a group, they were willing to take a step back

in terms of tying their hands cap-wise short-term. If you don't have $15 million in cap charges, what are you even doing at this point, right? At the end of the day, I respect that. Yeah. I respect the, I cover the Vancouver Canucks, and the Vancouver Canucks are in, once again, on a core group that, like, I really struggle to buy into the notion that their skill sets are complementary in a way that leads to, like, big time winning in the NHL. You know, I think having the guts to be like, hey, what we're doing isn't working. Right. I think that's an underrated aspect of being an NHL GM.

I think it takes real stones to be like, yeah, we were a 90-point team, but I way preferred watching this group of scrappy overachieving 20-year-olds work their tails off toward the end of the season. Let's bolster that, even if it comes at the expense of our true talent and some short-term cap flexibility. So I'm here for the Barry Trott's new era in Nashville, I think. Well, there is, yeah, there's also something to be said. for just entertainment value as well, right?

And then like the honeymoon period might be short if like they start playing. It's like, all right, this isn't what I envisioned. But I'm at least excited to see like, Gustav Nyquist is on this team now. Like it's, it's going to be fun to at least see how this all plays out, even if it doesn't necessarily result in anything more than maybe like a wild card kind of a situation. And I think there's something there with Glass.

Like I think there's something there with Novak. Yeah. You know, I think there's something there with Tomasino. Like I'm not going to be stunned at all. if the predators are somewhere in the range of, you know, 85 to 93 points and very much in the mix late in the season again. And I think that's probably... Well, when you have UC Soros, you will...

It's like a lock. But it's like they probably would have been there. Right. If they'd kept Duchayne and Johansson, it's just now it'll be an awful lot more interesting to watch. Yeah. And for me, that's good. I love that.

Tom, you've put in your time here. You can go back on vacation. I'll let you still plug whatever you want, even though you're not. I'm not doing anything for the rest of the month of July. I mean, if you want to plug our fantasy football, you can plug whatever you want. Yeah. Well, I mean, the Super League can adopt a new dynasty format.

Big changes coming. Very excited. No, Canucks talk here on SportsNet 650. We'll be back in September and then Theathletic.com. You can catch me in Harmon covering the Vancouver Canucks, among other writings. But not this month. Starting in August. Check back in in August and enjoy your summer vacation, everybody.

Awesome. Enjoy your break, bud. Thank you to all the listeners. We will be back tomorrow. In the meantime, you can help us up by smashing that five-star button wherever you listen to the show. And yeah, we'll be back tomorrow with another episode of the HockeyPedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.