The Hockey PDOcast - Pain in Pittsburgh

Episode Date: March 4, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Danny Shirey to unpack where things have gone wrong again for the Penguins this season, and how much of the blame for the way they're playing should go to the players and the front office that brought them in vs. the coach for the way he's using them. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PDOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEOCast. My name's Dmitri Filipovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Danny, Shirey. Danny, what's going on, man? Just looking forward to another fantastic Penguins Hockey game on the way. Yes, they've become events that are marked on everyone's calendars around the world. We're recording this actually on a Sunday evening prior to their game against the Oilers. So apologies if something extra.

notable happens in that contest and you're wondering why we aren't referencing it. But I felt that, you know, I felt comfortable doing this big picture conversation about the state of the penguins and where they're at right now with you because regardless of what happens tonight, like we've seen 58 games of this team so far. I think we have a pretty painfully clear picture of what they are. They've sort of helped reinforce that. And if anything, that game on Saturday night against Calgary, our most recent viewing of them. And the breakdown in the third period, how it unfolded, was sort of a perfect encapsulation, I guess, of their limitations and where things have gone off the rails this season. And that sort of just reinforced all of these concepts as well.

So, I mean, that was a backbreaking loss and a meltdown in a season that's been, it's been littered with them. But even that one for their standards, it must have been pretty impressive. No doubt. And it feels like for months now, like every next stretch they've had coming up, It's like, oh, this is the stretch where they, like, really have to hammer it down and figure their things out. But this Western trip that they're on right now, I mean, it was basically do or die and it was going to define whether, you know, I never really thought that there was a scenario

where they could even sweep the trip and then all of a sudden they'd become buyers at the deadline. Maybe they'd make like a light ad here or there. But now it's looking like, oh, my God, they have to do whatever they can to get some assets for whoever they can move out outside of the core pieces because it's just so funny to me that in a do-or-die situation like that, obviously it's not actually do-or-die, but it's as close as you can get to it in the regular season, that they still find ways to just beat themselves.

And like, credit to the flames for coming back in that game and actually winning it. But, I mean, how much of that was actually just the penguins doing what they've done largely for the past two seasons, if not longer. Yeah, well, Dom's model has their playoff probability down to 27% heading into this game against the Oilers. I asked him, if they win, it'll go up to 36. If they lose, it'll drop down to 22, but that kind of gives you ballpark estimate for it. And I've been talking about this on the show all season pretty much. I think, like, Dom does a great job in his model is a valuable resource.

But I think it might be, this team might be in a bit of a blind spot for it, right? because I think his model weights 5-on-5 metrics as very predictive and, like, telling of a team's strength and quality moving forward. And I think we know just in watching this Penguins team play and their games unfold, that within the context of that, that doesn't necessarily line up with what's actually happening, right? And we'll talk about the power play. And we'll talk about some of these late game breakdowns and all of that. But looping it all together, that's probably even over-inflating what their outlook is,

the rest of the way. Now, at the same time, in saying that, you look around and a lot of the teams they're competing with are necessarily standing out for admirable reasons either, right? Like, the devils can't get out of their own way. I don't think this capital's team is very good. The Islanders have certainly been flawed. The lightning are a mess of their own. And so it's not like anyone is necessarily taking it away and running with it. And maybe that's sort of leaving the door open just a little bit and maybe why that model says that they have that type of probability.

but at the same time, it's tough to reconcile with when you watch them play that they actually still have that much of a chance considering how bleak it's been for the majority of the season. Yeah, and I think that's what makes it so frustrating, especially these past couple months here, because outside of, you know, a couple teams in the east, I think if the penguins are on top of the game and playing the way that we've seen them play

when they are clicking and firing on all cylinders, is I'd put them up against, you know, the middle of the pack and some of these guys, some of these teams that are going to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. So I think that's what makes it so much more frustrating and so much more maddening from their perspective that they haven't been able to put it together. And, you know, the fact that there is so much mid in the Eastern Conference, for lack of a better term, that, you know, they're still facing down a trade deadline here in several days that, I don't know how you could justify not selling at this point.

Well, we're going to get into all of that stuff. Let's start off with one of the few positives of this season, though, just to, you know, raise the spirits a little bit here. And then we're going to get into all the other stuff, certainly, as well. But I do want to talk about Sidney Crosby, and I did a big episode with him about about him with Daryl recently that's up on the YouTube page. And if you happen check that out, I recommend doing so. And he sort of nerdered out about, like, the tricks of his trade and all the little intricacies

and details of the way he plays. But I want to talk about him with you here a little bit because I think it's impossible to separate the two, right? Like you watch him particularly in that most recent game they played against the flyers and how he's putting the team on his back and sort of carrying them to whatever heights they're going to achieve. And yet he's in age 36, year 19. And while it's still, while he's still just so impossibly dominant and like still doing

it at such a high level, also the fact that they're getting this type of season for him where it's basically like a top 10 offensive season by pretty much any metric you look at in terms of impacts and production, particularly. at even strength. And yet we're talking about a team that's struggling to cobble together enough goals to win games and being, as you said so aptly, as mid as they have. It's really tough to put all those things together and feel any other way other than disappointed about this team.

Yeah. And at the end of the day, going into this season, I know when Kyle Dubas took over at the helm, he promised that the penguins were still going to go for a Stanley Cup. And even though he said that I think most level-headed people understood that while they might be going for it, they, you know, they really had an outside shot of ever making an actual cup run. But I think the thing for me and a lot of fans is that regardless of whether or not you're actually going to go to the Stanley Cup final or win the Stanley Cup, is it with Crosby still playing at this level this late into his career, how could you not want to watch him in the postseason? And again, against some of these teams that might not be the best in the Eastern Conference, who knows what could happen when you have Sidney Crosby playing at this level and dragging you through the fight in the postseason.

Yeah, I mean, he's 10th and 5-15 points, ninth and 5-1-5 goals. And, you know, that's without, I mentioned those because he doesn't have the benefit of, like, a functional power play to stack up some easy points for the total counting stats. But the 5-15 metrics, 56% shot share, 58% chance share, 57% of the goals. And here's the kicker for you. So with him on the ice of 5-15 this year, the penguins are generating 3.8 goals per hour, which is elite. Without him on the ice, it's down to 2.05 goals per hour. And to put that into perspective, that's roughly what, like, the ducks are averaging as a team.

And they're the 30th scoring offense at 5-15 this season. The only team is better than that are the Blackhawks and sharks. And so what you're saying is that when Cindy Crosby isn't on the ice right now, the rest of this penguins team is essentially equivalent to, like, the Anaheim ducks offensively, who are obviously a rebuilding team that is one of the bottom five teams in the league. And I think that perfectly encapsulates it and also is highly troubling, right? Especially considering this team did make changes in the offseason, certainly, and brought in a bunch of new players.

Yet it's kind of a rehash of the conversation you and I had around this time last year, where the bottom six scoring, the ways to kind of manufacture some easier offense from the depth players and supporting cast just has let them down yet again. and I'm not sure how much of that you attribute to coaching, how much of that you attribute to management in terms of the types of players, they're clearly sort of prioritizing and bringing in, but whatever your mileage is on that,

it's clearly just not working because they're not able to generate goals when Crosby is not out there creating for them. Yeah, everybody wants to point the finger and, you know, Kyle Dubus or Mike Sullivan or the players. I think the reality is that it's a combination of all those things and really how could it not be? but going back to your point about the penguins production with Crosby on and off the ice, I've never been a person that's like, oh, you've got to throw this one game sample

or this two games sample out the window. But I can't help but think back to the two games the Penguins have had this year where they had giant goal outbursts, one being against the New York Islanders, and the other being against the San Jose Sharks. They filled the net in both of those games. And not that not saying that those just deserve to be three, thrown out the window. But if you were to do that, how much worse would it look if you were to do that? So, you know, it's tough. This team desperately needed to take the offensive burden off

the top of the lineup with their offseason acquisitions and retooling. I don't think anybody in the right mind would have expected Riley Smith to turn in the season that he has. You know, Ricard Raquel has been a disappointment when he's not playing with Crosby. And I think you could make an argument that some of that falls on Mike Sullivan for trying to, you know, pigeonhole himself into making Malkin and Raquel a thing because I've never, since Raquel was acquired, I've never really liked the chemistry that the two of them have had together. And it's been blatantly obvious that Raquel does very, very well with Crosby. You know, not that a lot of people wouldn't, but it's also, you know, a skill in and of itself

to excel with Crosby because we've seen a lot of guys who just can't hang up there. So I think essentially this team couldn't afford to lose out on the margins, and that's exactly what has happened. Well, I was thinking a lot about this because they've got him, you know, he's making what, 8.7 million this year next, and that contract is, you know, quite literally a relic of a different era, right? It was like this 12-year deal that he signed at a time when the cap was like 60, 64 million at that time.

I was kind of in that ballpark. And like what that represented versus as a percentage of the cap versus what it represents now and sort of the surplus value he's afforded them. It's like we talk about it all the time. Typically with younger players who sign long term deals before they blow up. And it's like, all right, well, you've got Jack Hughes at this cut rate essentially compared to what he's actually providing on the ice. And so you can use those savings to support him basically by bringing in better players elsewhere on the margins. And so just thinking about that and sort of the way they've utilized it because he's still, I think Dom's model has about like 11.7 million in terms of his market value in terms of how he's produced.

And yet he's making significantly less than that. And you can say the same, I think. You know, we can get into Malkin a little bit here. I know that he's in typical fashion, like frustrated fans and there's been moments of billions. There's been moments of, oh, like, what's he doing out there? But he's also a 37-year-old who's making $6 million. Like, it's kind of this is still. a good performance when you factor in those two things. And the fact that him, Crosby, Carlson,

and Latang haven't even missed a single game yet. And this is what you're getting. I think that's kind of what makes the way it's unfolded even more difficult to justify or swallow, right? Because it'd be one thing if you go into the season and some of these guys are either showing their age or missing games because of injury and you're like, all right, well, you know, this kind of comes with the territory. And that's not even like we can point to that as a reason for why this team has a a 25% chance of making the playoffs. Yeah, and that's not even to, like I won't sit here and say outside of Crosby because I have no qualms with anything that Crosby has done this season, obviously,

as we just discussed. But I don't want to sit here and pretend that Malkin's been perfect or that Carlson or Lattang has been perfect. But if you look, at least as far as Carlson's concerned, I know when you've got such a hefty cap hit that there's a necessity, even as a blue liner to put up point. and be productive. You and I actually had a Twitter exchange about this

where, you know, everybody's so frustrated that Carlson has, you know, he's significantly below a point per game this season. But if you consider everyone, all those same people are also well aware of the fact that the Penguins are the NHL's worst finishing team relative to the quality of what they're generating. And if that's the case, you have to admit that Carlson would have significant more assists in the end. You know, it's a defenseman.

How many goals can you consistently rely on him to put the puck in the back of the net? But as far as his chance creation from passing goes, it's been as good as you possibly could have expected. And he's playing, you know, when he was acquired, I think all Penguins fans had succumbed to the idea that he was going to show up as the literal worst defensive defenseman in the league. And while he certainly hasn't been a shutdown guy, he hasn't been the worst, you know, know, defensive defenseman in the league. And that is also an uptick and provides a boost to his overall value. So anyway, to kind of loop this all together, if you look at what Malkin's making, you look at what

Latang's making, and you consider those factors about Carlson, those guys are all holding up their end of the bargain one way or another. And, you know, it's so tough for me when you, when you look at some of the offseason additions and, you know, handing out a couple million dollars to Nola Chari, who also somehow has an eight-team no trade clause, which makes absolutely no sense to me in the world. And then you look at the Ryan Graves deal. And even at the time, I know Tristan Jari's had a pretty good season,

but at the time, giving him five years was pretty sketchy, at least on my end, and from what I've heard regarding the nature of the injury that he sustained last year. So that's just what makes it all the more frustrating from a penguin's perspective because there was at least,

an opportunity to avoid what had happened last season and somehow it has just gotten worse. Let's hammer the Carlson thing then, because I had it like later in my show notes. I thought we were going to get to it eventually. But while you brought it up, like let's do it now, because I think that's been one of the most frustrating parts for me in terms of seeing the way it's been covered and discussed, right? I think a lot of people had sort of, I mean, obviously you're going to have skeptics regardless of his game, but I think heading into the season, there was a certain, percentage of people, they were like, all right, well, I'm now going to judge him based on this

101 point baseline that he set last year. And anything that falls short of that, I'm going to be disappointed by it. And so you were setting yourself up, I think, for failure in doing so, because even if he replicated, if he did all the same things, exactly the same he did last year, he was just never going to reach that again for a variety of reasons. But I mean, he shot 12%. I think he had a point on like nearly 70% of the goals. The shark scored while he was on the ice. And that's just like defensemen typically just don't factor into that many. Right.

Like we know that you can still drive offense impacts as a defenseman and not get points for it just by moving the puck well and getting it to your forwards and right positions. And so he was never going to get 100 points again. Now he's on this 60 point pace with elite 5-15 impact. And I'm glad you brought that up because I think it is worth noting. and just like going back and rewatching all the chances they've had and everything he's set up, there's been at least, I'd say, 15 goals left on the board, if not more. And let's just say you add the 15 assists to his game. Well, now he's at a point per game.

And that's not still short of the 100 point mark. But at the same time, I don't think as many people would be quibbling with it. And that seems like it's something where I think we can accept that that is out of his hands, right? Like, all the best you can do is deliver the park to your teammates in a quality position. and then if they don't score, we should not view you negatively compared to that. And so I just find it very frustrating the way his season has been sort of discussed and dissected and micromanaged because I think he's been really, really good. Like I think full marks, I think there's a lot of things that are flawed with the team,

but I would say his performance has certainly not been one of them. Yeah, I completely agree with you. And it's easy too because he's the new guy making a bunch of money. So when everything's going wrong, it's really easy to point the finger at, him and be like, oh, well, this isn't the right fit here. That trade never should have happened. And we don't even need to go into, you know, all the dead weight and bad contracts that they shed and brought it in bringing him in.

The thing about Carlson for me, though, and, you know, I'm a stats guy who loves to blend that with the video and really using that to just kind of create a more comprehensive understanding of what's going out on the ice. But as a stats guy, like sometimes I wonder what the heck these people are watching because Carlson, even when he's having his bad games, is making the most slippery, beautiful breakout passes under pressure that no one else on the team, including Chris Latang, could make. He's doing all kinds of things in the offensive zone up at the point where, you know,

you wouldn't even dream of Ryan Graves trying to make the same time. kind of move. And he's not hitting on a, he's not executing that at a hundred percent rate. But the fact remains that those, all those little things are adding up to the, you know, the 99th percentile and chance assists at even strength. And all these high danger passes that he's creating. And, you know, it really does fall out of his hands that, you know, the Nolacharis, the Jeff Carter's. And you can even go further up the lineup, the Riley Smith, the Ricard Raquel's, aren't bearing his chances. What more could he do other than literally just taking the game over and going rover going rogue like he did

last season in san jose which was just never going to happen here yeah oh man it's uh there's there's so much so on back there but i really i mean i've i've really enjoyed watching him play this year and it's a shame that he doesn't have more of those assists so that people maybe view it through a different light one final thing on crosbie and then we're going to move on and talk more about the coaching and stuff um i had someone bring this up to me recently and kind of asked me just sort of as a thought exercise, like how much longer do you think this guy's going to play? And it seems like, you know, a strange question, obviously, because I just said he's like performing at like a top 10 level offensively. Now he is 36. He's got the one more year in his contract after

that. And I think we'll sort of see the state of the team. But it kind of came up in conjunction with, I think, this sort of reframing from the organization and maybe some of the conversation about this team of what value he can provide to them moving forward, right? In terms of like all those intangibles, like setting a precedent in terms of habits, like the way you play, training, the way you prepare, all that sorts of stuff. And then how the impact that can have for the next generation of Pittsburgh Penguins players who are going to be playing for this team well after he's gone in terms of like setting the template and the blueprint, right?

And so I'm really curious for your take on all of that in terms of like whether that is a real thing or whether that just kind of saving face because this season hasn't gone the way it has because I think we're going to talk about Gensel later and sort of the idea of what you prioritize and a trade return for him. And I'm very curious to see. I think that'll be sort of telling in the terms of the way they view it themselves internally, right, in terms of what they actually get back for it and what they prioritize. Because I think your natural inclination would be like, yeah, let's get players right now who can help this guy immediately and turn the corner here a little bit and get into the playoffs the next couple of years as opposed to sort of still

having him playing at this level, but taking a longer term view with the way you're building around him. Yeah, I do think there is an element of truth to that, but I do heavily question how much it actually matters in terms of on-ice impact, because if it was significant, you would think that it would be bleeding into the right now, would it not? And, you know, you look at the rest of the team, and that's not to take anything away from Crosby and his work ethic. I don't need to sit here and tell anybody about any of that because everybody already knows. But I just question whether, like, for example, if you've got a do a prospect who projects his, you know, a middle six winger and he goes and spends a training camp with Crosby and maybe he spends a season playing with him,

that's not going to, you know, all of a sudden turn this dude into a top line winger that, you know, you're going to hang on to for, you know, his entire career. So while I, again, I do think there is some value in it. I think it could be greatly exaggerated, especially in times like right now where things look pretty bad. I don't know. Again, I don't want to take anything away from Crosby and what he does by saying that, but I think that's something that maybe Penguins fans like to romanticize a little more than is actually the case. No, I'm with you. That makes a lot of sense. Let's talk about the power play. I don't know if you have any takes. on it in terms of why it is stagnated the way it has for as long as it has, because this isn't

something that just kind of randomly cropped up in season and they haven't had a chance to work on it pretty much since day one. It has been wildly ineffectual. And this is a group that was kind of middle of the pack, slightly above average last year. And then they added Eric Carlson and you'd think, all right, with the personnel they have. I know some of these players are older, but I would still expect that would be an area of the game where if anything, it slows down a little bit, you can sort of micromanage a little bit more from set plays. And you know, you're starting off from scratch in the offensive zone on a draw. You can sort of work your magic in that way. And that would be something that would, if anything, lend itself to players who are in this stage of their

careers. And yet, they're 28th in goals per hour right now with that personnel not missing any time. And there's been so few meaningful adjustments along the way, right? Like we've seen stuff on the margins. Recently, obviously, we saw Malkin get bumped down to the second unit. They put Lars Eller in his place. And funny enough, they've produced a couple of goals since. And I'm not sure what that's going to reinforce in terms of takeaways from that. But we shall see. But for the most part, it's been really tough to watch because they're almost starting these

two-minute power plays. And you're like, all right, I know exactly what to expect here. And then you just see it happen in like, pastating these slow motion for two minutes. And we're all watching this. And yet we're in game 59 now. And it's been pretty much the same. all the way through. Oh, and every time there's a power play coming,

it just completely sucks the life out of the team. And there was a point in time a couple months ago where every time they didn't score on the power play, suddenly you'd see that seep into their five-on-five play. Like, you could feel the pressure that was on these guys' shoulders for not producing on the power play. I definitely have a lot of takes about the power play, especially with some of the personnel choices lately,

even though, you know, Lars Eller scored a pretty nice goal against Calgary the other night. But what's interesting to me is that if you go back and look at the first several weeks of the season, although they didn't have the goal generation, their chance creation was phenomenal. And that wasn't just voodoo chance creation either. I actually did a pretty comprehensive video breakdown of that

where I really enjoyed their off-puck movement. I thought they were hunting pucks down after they were taking shots in the corners. And they were attacking downhill quite a bit. And I, you know, if you looked at the rate at which they were shooting the puck and then the rate at which they were creating chances, it was it was astronomical. Obviously, it wasn't going to stay at that degree or that level for an extended period of time. But knowing those things and also seeing it on the video, you're like the goals have to be coming, especially as you mentioned, knowing the personnel.

But I think as time went on and as the goals didn't come, it just threw an entire wrench in their tactics. And I argued for long stretches of last year that, and obviously the power play was a lot better last year, but I argued that one of their biggest problems on the power play was their zone entries. They've been doing the, and they've toyed around with a million different entries,

this season at this point now. So I'm not necessarily saying this is a current problem. But they've been doing the power play drop pass entry for so many years. And opposing penalty kills would just sit on it. They knew there was no threat of the initial puck carrier, even making any kind of attempt to gain the zone. And they were able to sit back and squash it. And when you're fighting for a minute, 45 seconds,

or even longer, just to establish a presence in the zone, zone, that's obviously going to wear you down and you don't have as much energy to actually flex your skill and muscle a little bit. This year, though, they've toyed around with so many different breakouts. Some of them have been better than others. I still rarely feel as if, you know, I see a sequence where I'm like, oh, that's, that's the one. That's the one that they need to be trying to use every time because it still feels like even when they are able to establish a presence in the zone, that it was such a slog to do it. But it, You could point to so many things at this point.

You know, Malkin and Carlson playing patty cake with each other up at the point, not even interested in shooting the puck. And when they're doing that, you look at the off puck movement. It was a lot of the time non-existent. And you could make the argument that that's why they were playing patty cake because nothing else was opening up. And opposing penalty kills knew if they could contain Malkin and Carlson up top without anybody else moving.

around well they're they're about to take care of business well and even the goal you're referencing there the other one against the flames like part of it was i think a bit of a fortunate bounce for it to get to him in the first place but it really stood out in comparison to a lot of their other sets for me where at least you watch that one and they had like some semblance of that presence of a low triangle there where like you had poosted in in front of the net and he obviously kind of taps it over and then eller finishes it on the side of the net but at least you have it you have it It makes sense where it's like, all right, we're actually trying to work the puck down low and then attack from in tight where we know that's where you're going to get your most dangerous opportunities. It's tough to get the puck there.

But often you see like three guys just high in the zone, kind of comfortable bleeding 20, 30 seconds off the clock, just trying to pass it around. And then the puck balances on you. It goes out of the zone. You have to restart. And there goes another minute. And it's just bizarre because on the service, you'd say, all right, well, we have an elite player in Carlson at least. getting the puck through traffic towards the net, and then a player who's renowned and famous for standing in front of the net

and then tipping that puck in in very diverse ways in Crosby, and yet instead, neither of those guys seem to be in a position where they can actually do that, and you get the alternative, which is what we're describing. No doubt. And, you know, the Eller goal, like you mentioned, And that was a rare instance where I felt like they had a plan and they were actually trying to dictate terms rather than letting the opposing penalty kill dictate terms. But also to your point about Crosby, I mean, who even at this point in time is better with loose change around the net and deflecting pucks and getting all of his blade on a wobbling puck around the crease?

and yet so many times you see Crosby up at the top of the left circle where you could make an argument that that's where he's least effective in the offensive zone. Not that we haven't seen him, you know, walk downhill and snipe from the opposite circle there, but that's not really his bread and butter. So I think an element of that does come back to coaching, and I know we'll get to that at some point. But, you know, when you're looking for, when you're looking to point to finger at somebody, I really do think it falls back on everything

because even Carlson to an extent, I think maybe some people had unrealistic expectations of the kind of power play player he is. Because I had actually gone back and looked at the Sharks' power play, specifically their entries from last season, to see if he could be a one-man machine that would entirely fix that for the Penguins. And as it turned out,

the Sharks just worked well as a five-man unit to transition the puck-up. vice on the power play and then they let him do his thing in the offensive zone. Historically, he has been a good power plate player, but not necessarily at the level of his five on five dominance throughout his career. And perhaps everybody thought that maybe even on the team players and coaches management as well thought that, oh, we've got Eric Carlson now and that'll solve all our problems and it hasn't. Okay, we're going to get into that coach. Let's take our break here though real quick. And then when we come back, we'll jump back into it

with Danny. You're listening to the Hockeypedia. Kass streaming. on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockey P.D.O. Guas, Danny. So before we went to break, we were talking about the Penguins PowerPlay. And I think it's undoubtedly the biggest blemish on their record this season. But I think the reason why it's also interesting is in watching it and discussing a lot of the negatives of it, or I guess reasons why they faltered so much. What sticks out to me is this sort of lack of urgency that I think is concerning and also

emblematic, I think, of a lot of other issues they've had in their general approach this year. I think it extends to the 5-1-5 play as well, where, you know, the territorial numbers in terms of shots and expected goals and chances are fine. But I think it's important to dig into that a little bit further, right? Because this team has, and I don't think it's necessarily slow. Like, I know it's on the older side, certainly, in terms of the roster composition. I don't think they're necessarily slow. I think the way they're playing is really slow. And I'm not sure what you attribute that to. It's like very painfully methodical, I'd say, I think is the best way to describe it where it just like so tentative and especially in comparison to what we glorified during that

mid 2010s Renaissance where Mike Sullivan first took over and this whole concept of, all right, this team might not skate fast, but boy, does it play fast? They're constantly moving the puck and trying to go into spaces and attack you. And then you watch what they are today. And it's almost like it's night and day, right? And I think that's where a lot of these issues come back to it, just this lack of urgency that they seem to have in the way they play. The term I used to describe the penguin's current style of play, I believe I used this maybe a week or two ago when it really hit me.

I believe I was watching the Bruins and Canucks play maybe last weekend. And, you know, it hit me that the penguin's style of play is plotting. they are just so like the and it goes back to the power play too like what I was saying they let other teams dictate terms for them instead of going out there and making other teams react to what they're doing they're reacting to what they're being given and one of Mike Sullivan's biggest cliches is take what the game is given you you don't want to force things take what the game is giving you and now obviously Sidney Crosby is not a burner anymore but I wouldn't consider him slow. Chris LaTang isn't a burner anymore, but he's not slow. They do have some

slow guys throughout their lineup like Ricard Raquel, and Ryan Grave certainly seems like he's skating in mud half the time. But part of being, you know, we know that speed alone doesn't make an effective player. It doesn't make an effective hockey team. It's the speed at which you're processing the things in front of you. It's the speed at which you're making decisions. It's the speed at which you're moving the puck. And I think all those things are culminating in such a slow, like very almost passive manner that I hesitate to say it. But like the league has legitimately passed them by in terms of what Mike Sullivan is trying

to get this get out of this personnel group. Yeah, I would describe it as lethargic. And it's strange because like the decision making is slow. And I gave you a post. this in the Discord the other day, but I just had to reshare it because I think it's the most app description I'm going to have. Watching Riley Smith in 2024, and this is opposite of what he was like in Vegas where he, everything was fast and decisive. He is like when, when I show up to a grocery store and I had a list of stuff that I was supposed to buy, and then I walk in and I grab my

shopping car and I'm kind of like walking in through the entrance, and then I realize I don't have my list. And I'm just like that awkwardness where you're sort of loitering, you're trying to remember, all right, which aisle should I go to first? What was the stuff that I really need to get? That's like watching him trying to make decisions right now on the ice. And it spreads to the rest of the team. I'm not necessarily just trying to pick on him here, but I think it is kind of emblematic of a lot of their issues. And I don't know if it's like a glaring disconnect between personnel and identity or playing style or what the coaching staff wants from them. Because I remember when I had you on last year, we had a whole bit where, you know, we were sort of pointing out how like, and I was attributing a lot

of this to the Hextall-Birk regime in terms of it felt like there was a growing chasm or disconnect between the players we know that have succeeded under Mike Sullivan and the types of players they were bringing in and handing to him and basically saying, all right, well, these are the guys we got for you and then him being like, well, this is what I want them to do and they're just kind of budding heads in that way. Now, obviously there's a new regime. They brought in a bunch of new players and it's kind of the same stuff. And I'm just wondering sort of what we attribute that to then because it's much more of the same. Well, if we're taking everything at face value that Mike Sullivan and Kyle Dubus have said in the media,

those two are on exactly the same page as how this team should be playing and what kind of players they need to have, you know, rounding out the depth, right? So what does that ultimately fall on? It's either a miscalculation in player evaluation and style of out. or the coaching staff is just not putting those players in the best possible positions to succeed. And as I've said numerous times now, I think it's a little bit of everything. Yeah, I think what they want to be. And I think we see it at the distillation of it when they're at their best, right?

I think they've had performances this season. I think of that home game against the avalanche. There's a few others where you can sort of see. And even when they came here on this road trip and they played the Canucks, they gave the knocks a lot of problems with this approach where they were trying to be very aggressive with their like puck pressure, right? And they were almost like, all right, we're going to be this sort of defense first puck pressure grinding team. And that makes sense. But the issue is that you have to actually have the players who can then execute that every night. And those are types of players

that are typically young, fast, and you need a lot of them because it's very taxing on them. right? It's kind of, and I think that's no surprise why a team like the Flyers who are all of those things are having success playing that sort of style, right? It's very demanding, but they have the personnel to do so. And if you get tired or you get hurt or your performance slips, there's always an X man up. And that's not what this Penguins team is now. And they've sort of like decayed slowly into this. And now it's more of the same from last year. So I think that's concerning to me. The other thing that I wanted to talk about with you is kind of this growing trend in their performance is that finishing you referenced earlier, right?

Where we saw slippage of it last year. And you could always kind of compare the expected numbers versus the actual. And I think our natural inclination is to say, all right, over a long enough sample, give a time, there will be positive regression. These players, if they keep getting these chances, will perform better, right? And I think in some cases, it's true. Like there was a couple weeks ago when Ricard Raquel couldn't buy a single goal. I was like, you know what?

If he keeps getting some of these chances, I think eventually, we've seen enough from him where he probably will start to score more. It's almost impossible for him to be this ineffective on the score sheet. And then he had this flurry of goals. At the same time, though, it raises this interesting question of, all right, does the oldest team in the league, is that something we need to factor into finishing in terms of like a degradation of skills there

and whether this is just an actual thing that is happening organically as opposed to just a one or two-year aberration that's so unfair and plaguing them, but will eventually write itself, because I'm not sure that's the case. Yeah, I mean, lost in the conversation of regression to the mean is coming, is that finishing is a skill. And I think as we've seen from teams like the Canucks this year,

it can be one of the biggest separators, you know, between being an average to good team and one of the best teams in the league, right? if you have that high-end finishing ability and can get it on a consistent enough basis, you can separate yourself and get away with five-on-five play and even strength play that might not be, you know, top five in the league because you're putting the puck in the back of the net and you're being opportunistic. So as far as the penguins are concerned, though, the other thing I can't help, but, and I don't have anything to necessarily back this up, but I feel like the penguins are,

and it's probably true, because they're not a high goal scoring team. But I feel like the penguins just do not score a lot of goals via snipes. Like it always feels like, and it's kind of been in the penguin's identity for a while, that they're always looking for that extra pass. There was a play against the flames the other night. And even Crosby was guilty,

where he burned a defender wide, and he drops the puck off for Drew O'Connor right behind him. And then Drew O'Connor tried another drop pass to nobody, and it ended up being a change of possession and going the other way. I feel like sometimes these guys just need to let it rip. And there's been so many opportunities where it's like, why is that guy not shooting the puck here? And I'm certainly not a guy that's sitting here going,

shoot, shoot the puck. I've never been that kind of guy. But there is an element of just put the, like you look at the goal Jonathan Gruden scored, his first NHL goal. Yes, it was a lucky goal. But you know what? There's a lot of guys on the penguins that would have passed that shot up.

And if you don't take that shot, you don't put the puck in the back. the net. Well, I think shooting talent is certainly real and especially that that concept of like one shot scores, right? And I think what I mean, what doesn't do that many favors is is a two-part thing. I think one is the playing style we mentioned where I believe they're like 30th or 29th in rush chances this season because they're slow and they just try to grind out everything. And I think we know that a rush chance is probably more likely to be a dangerous scoring chance that leads to a goal where you have those snipe opportunities as opposed to this sequence.

where you're basically just trying to force the puck physically into the net, which they do oftentimes. And then the other is like the bottom six, which we sort of reference at the top and the types of players that prioritize. And unfortunately, I think this is going to be more of the same moving forward because I think there's a certain type of player that Kyle Dubas really likes in his bottom six. And you saw that based on the players he acquired this offseason. And I don't think we should have the same expectations for what a Jansen-Harkins shot is going

a lead to where he literally has not scored yet despite playing like 300 something minutes this season and what a team who's in the top and shooting percentage of the season like the Red Wings, sorry to say this to Penguins fans, but if Daniel Sprong is on your fourth line, like you probably will exceed your expectations from a scoring perspective because 15 to 20 times he's just going to come out there and just let a rip and beat the goalie cleanly and it's going to be cool and that's going to drive your results. Whereas if you're getting none of that ever from your bottom six, which has happened last year to the penguins, and it's happening again now.

That's obviously going to bring everything down with it. I think that's kind of this phenomenon you're seeing with their shooting percentage. So I'm not sure if they're necessarily 29th moving forward, but I also don't think that we should expect them to be 15th or anything. No, and I think with, especially over the past season or two, we've seen a lot of teams around the league that are starting to optimize their shot selection versus, and what I mean, by that. And I think the penguins have, to an extent, been at the forefront of that where, you know, they're trying to create those high danger looks and focusing on getting shots from the front of the

net and the slot area. But at the same time, going back to what I said about just sniping the puck, like Daniel Sprong is going to let it rip off the rush from the top of the circle. And you know for a fact that he's going to be good for at least a few of those, you know, every month. And then you look at what the penguins are trotting out at the bottom of the lineup, and it feels like a success if they're able to just carry the puck across both blue lines, let alone rip the puck to the back of the net. Oh, man. I mean, yeah, you look at the list of bottom six players,

and it is a real leak who's who, and especially when you line up their performance this season, right? And so I think that part of it is alarming. I guess that's a good segue to talk a little bit about Kyle Dubus and the management and kind of the plan and moving forward, right? I was very curious to see what his approach was when he signed that seven-year deal with him. I think what was logical was, all right, you go really aggressively in trying to maximize this remaining window, whatever it is with his core.

And then you have the timeline and runway because you signed that seven-year deal, where in the back half of it, you're going to have carte blanche to just tear everything down, go scorched earth, and basically start over, right? And I think that that is the right plan as opposed to trying to have this half measure of keeping your 14th overall pick and having it be a prospect who might potentially help you three years from now as opposed to weaponizing it into a player

who definitely can help you now. And so I think a lot of his moves he didn't trade that pick but he did make a bunch of aggressive moves, particularly giving players term to lower their cap number so they come and sign with this team and help them now, right?

Like the reason you sign Ryan Graves or Tristan Jury to five, six year deals isn't necessarily because you want them here on this team in years five and six, it's because it ensures that they're going to be here for this year and next year, and that's why they're going to sign with your team as opposed to signing with someone else who wasn't going to give them that term. And the first 60 games of that are obviously very mixed, but I'm just very fascinated by like this whole player evaluation process they had in the meantime, right? Because I know that in Toronto, he spent a lot of time and invested a lot of

resources in building out his staff of trusted voices and like infrastructure of database and stuff to use to make player evaluation decisions. And one coming over to Pittsburgh, he's essentially at the start from scratch. I know he eventually brought over Jason Spetsa and he hired a lot of people. But I think there's like a lag period, I guess, where you have to build that up over time. And as we know, in free agency, you don't necessarily have the time to do so. And so you wind up making a lot of decisions like signing a Ryan Graves, which obviously looks like a massive player evaluation failure, in my opinion. And so I'm curious kind of how you weigh all of those things, I guess,

and sort of how we get to the point where you are giving Ryan Graves a five or six-year deal after having seen him play last season. Yeah, I think the most glaring thing for me is that, as you mentioned, Dubus didn't really have the time, opportunity to build out his staff. So it was him and, and I don't even know if Spetsa at that point in time had been allowed to help out. I believe he was, but regardless, there's not some comprehensive, massive hockey-off staff that

you have here. And if you go back and look at his time in Toronto, especially the Maple Leafs in the playoffs, it wasn't that they were a poor defensive team, it was that they struggled to score. And some of that burden obviously falls on the stars at the top of the lineup, but then you start going further down, and they just didn't have the horses to put the puck in the back of the net and the bottom six. So I, you know, some Penguins fans whose opinions I very much respect and I really get a lot of insight out of their hockey opinions, you know, they were concerned about bringing Dubus on because it was the same exact issue that

Hanksdall's Penguins had last year. So I'm with you like the Graves deal just looks like a massive mis-evaluation and a miscalculation on what he would bring to this team and what kind of player he was previously you look at. And the other thing, and I feel like some of this falls on coaching as well, but Nolachari has spent the entire year at center. And that is not a guy who I think should be,

playing center, at least as far as what the penguins are trotting out on his line with him, right? You look at, you know, Jeff Carter's definitely not helping him out there, and Jansen Harkins hasn't scored a goal all season. So not to say that, you know, you're putting Nollachari on the wing all of a sudden that that fixes all your problems. But when you think about Nolachari, you think about a guy who's a little grittier, he's willing to get his nose dirty, he's going to get physical with you and do as much as he can on the forecheck. But all of a sudden, he's spending the entire season at center and he's worried about, you know, being the only guy on whose line who can transition the puck out of the D zone and he doesn't have the puck skill to do that. So again, I think it's a very glaring problem on on Dubus in the front office as well as the coaching staff because everything they've said seems to suggest that they are aligned on what needs to happen, what kind of players they need at the bottom of the lineup.

time and time again, it just hasn't gotten it done. Yeah, the reason why I brought Graves up there, and certainly I don't want to necessarily put all the blame on him. I think he's a player who has utility and certainly can provide value, but when you're paying someone like that $4.5 million, forget the term for a second, just for this season, you have a certain level of the expectation in terms of how many minutes they're going to play and where they're going to slot into the lineup, right? And the issue is that, and I think he had put this on tape for anyone that had bothered to watch the past couple years, he has some.

some of the worst offensive IQ I've seen of any player who actually plays big minutes. Like, it's just not something that he can process in time and do correctly. And he's actually, to his credit, toned down the shots. I thought it was a big concerning point for me in terms of just how much he was blindly and aimlessly firing from the point. He's toned that down this season. But you still can't, unfortunately, play him with your top players and saddle them with him and expect them to succeed in offensive minutes, right? So you get to this awkward position where they've tried him for old.

over 300 minutes with Carlson, over 300 minutes with LaTang at 515. And then eventually I then came to the realization that we just can't do that anymore. And so now he's playing third pair. But then you have a third pair defenseman who's making $4.5 million for the next six years. And that's incredibly awkward. And so you get back to this question of, all right, how do we get into this position? Was it a matter of just a mis-evaluation because of that awkward kind of gap in bridge period that I was mentioning in terms of setting the organization up?

or whether it's an actual sort of big time flaw in terms of a blind spot of players they prioritize and value compared to what they actually need. And I think, I don't know, there's no right answer to it, but I just find that as a thought exercise to be like a very interesting philosophical question. And the answer to it will probably determine what the outlook of this organization is like for the next six years. Yeah, I'm completely with you. And that's why I think there's no use in pointing the finger directly at Mike Sullivan.

and there's no use in pointing the finger directly at Ryan Graves. It falls on the shoulders of Ryan Graves. It falls on the shoulders of Sullivan. It falls on the shoulders of Kyle Dubus. And in a season where Dubus himself admitted that he was going to have to hit on all of his depth additions and all of his signings, and they were going to need everything to go right, meaning they were going to need a full season out of Crosby. They were going to need Ricard Raquel and Riley Smith, the pot 20 goals. They were going to need the bottom six to not be as offensively inept as they are.

And, you know, it's a culmination of all those things, just not going the right way. And I think, and the funniest part about all of it is that not talking about a lot of these things if they just had a league average power play. But then that goes back to what we were talking about earlier with the rest of the Eastern Conference and where they might be and what they might be able to do going forward because the rest of the East is, you know, save for a team or two, not that great in my eyes. So it's, it's tough, especially because they're going into, you know, another offseason where they're basically going to have to try and do the exact

same thing that they did last off season, which is retool the depth and, and make some pretty big decisions on some guys. Like, again, I don't think anybody knew that Riley Smith was going to fall off the face of the earth with the penguins that I don't think that necessarily falls on Kyle Dubus by any means. But the fact remains that he acquired him. He signed Ryan Graves. And I know for a fact because Dubus hadn't had the time to build out his hockey operations staff that Mike Sullivan was probably pretty involved in those conversations about what kind of players they're targeting.

And, you know, Lars Eller especially is just a Mike Sullivan kind of guy. And I think we've seen that with all of a sudden, Eller's getting top power play time. And he's been used in all situations. and gets bumped up to the second line when Malkin's not having great games. So again, this is just a disastrous season where they needed everything to go right and most of those things happen.

Here's my parting question for you then. Have you been surprised by the, like I mentioned, this theme of lack of urgency in terms of the way they play, but from taking a step back from an organizational perspective because there clearly was a sense of urgency in the offseason in terms of all the moves they made, right, and how aggressive they were and the Carlson trade and all the signings you mentioned and trying to sort of retool

what was a very disappointing team last year on the fly. And then now comparing that to just watching this sort of unfold in real time on a day-to-day basis with the way this team has played in the way and the results they've shown and how it's looked and the lack of any significant moves. Like I'm sure we'll see against a move here at some point we're only a week away from the deadline.

But beyond that, there hasn't really been meaningful moves that have signaled like a willingness to change that or fix things on the fly. Is it a matter of like maybe you just don't want to make significant changes until you eventually bring in a new coach and then see what that looks like before you change the players because it might be easier to do that or is it waiting until the offseason or is it a misguided belief that there is a positive regression coming and the five on five metrics actually are indicative of a better team under the surface. What do you sort of attribute that to?

Because obviously it's been sort of jarring to just watch this unfold. and the team for the most part, I'm sure they're trying to do stuff behind the scenes, but not actually doing anything beyond trading Alex Nealander for Emil Bimelbemstrom. Right, and I'm definitely not one of those people that will sit here and say that they haven't tried to do anything. They absolutely have.

But they're so far past the point of just trying to toy around and tinker, like claiming Matthew Phillips off waivers and even to, you know, a greater extent signing Yesy-Poly Javier, and bringing him in. Like that, even in a best case scenario, Yessi Poyarvi was never going to drastically change this team's outlook and change the way this bottom six played and all of a sudden turned them into, you know,

effective goal scoring lines. That was just never going to happen. And it was striking to me when Dubus spoke for the first time and even the second time after the season had started and he basically insinuated that he was hesitant to, rock the boat and that he was still getting a feel for the organization and how, you know, how everything operates. But the penguins did not have that luxury this year. There's no guarantee next season that Crosby will be at this level. We're already seeing some

pretty significant decline in Afghani Malkins play. Who knows where he'll be at next year, let alone Eric Carlson and Chris Lattang, who also aren't getting any younger either. So I don't think all this falls on Mike Sullivan's shoulders, as I've said a million times throughout this episode, but at some point you have to make drastic decisions if you're expecting a different result, and it's just never come about. I think that, and I made the case, I wrote a column a week or two ago that basically suggested I wasn't calling for Mike Sullivan to be fired, but if this team is going to go ahead and try and compete next year, which it certainly seems like that's going to be the case, I don't know how you could justify bringing him back after what we've seen this team do

this season. All right, Danny. Well, I'm sure we're going to have you on again at some point, and we can revisit a lot of this. There's just a bunch of meat that we left on the bone and stuff I wanted to discuss, but, you know, we've got time limitations here. So we've got to get out of here. I'll let you quickly plug some stuff on the way out.

Let the people know where they can check out your work. Yeah, I started a substack as many independent writers do. It's called breakdowns and breakaways. Lots of penguins analysis with heavy focus on video breakdowns. with all kinds of illustrations. I do my best to blend that with the data, and I'd like to think I have a pretty good understanding of not just blindly throwing numbers at you

and saying, oh, this player good, this player bad, and really using it in a comprehensive manner. So you can find that at breakdowns and breakaways.com. And if that's too much for you to remember, just follow me on Twitter, and you'll be able to find all my content there. My ad is Danny Shiree, PGH. Lots of breakdowns, very few breakers.

ways. The Pittsburgh Penguins, 2023, 2024 season. All right, man, this is a blast. It's always great to have you on. We're going to have you on again soon. Thanks for coming on. Thank you to everyone for listening. And we'll be back soon this week with plenty of more of the Hockey-Ocast as always streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.