The Hockey PDOcast - Part 2: The Oilers Comeback, the Super Early Conn Smythe Market, and What’s Next for This Postseason

Episode Date: April 28, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to unpack everything we saw from Sunday night's comeback by the Oilers, the super early Conn Smythe market at this post of the postseason, and look ahead to what's next for us as we get into the latter stages of Round 1 of the playoffs. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name's Dmitra Filipovich and joining me for part two of our mega Sunday special this week is my good buddy Thomas Jans, Tom. What's going on, man? I'm just trying to figure out... You're reeling right now. I'm trying to figure out how did the Kings miss that kill shot? How did they do it again? I mean, they've missed two absolutely devastating opportunities. to do the old vice grip thing to the Edmunds noilers and push them to the brink. And I'm genuinely, I'm stunned by how this has gone down.

This is peak podcasting, right? Because we waited to record part two, part one. We talked about a couple of the other West series, right? We spent a lot of time on AvStars. We waited intentionally to watch Game 4 of Boilers Kings, the last game on the schedule this weekend. And we're like, we're going to record right after. And then it goes into overtime.

We're watching it. And now we're recording right after. The game ended just about a minute. or two ago and we're left here to pick up the pieces, you know, in real time, put our brains together and try to make sense of what happened because there's so many moving parts. There's so much to unpack, but I think this is going to be really fun because this has been, I mean, as far as much as we talk about blues, jets and Golden Knights Wild and, you know, how great they've been.

In their own right, they've been highly entertaining. This series has 37 combined goals in the four games, I believe, one and two in goals. score this postseason are the Kings and the Oilers. They ran this graphic during the game where I believe you have to go all the way back to 1990. And first on the list in terms of most goals scored to start a series was that Epic 2012, I believe, Penguins Flyers series. Those obviously just peak chaos.

And then this one comes in second. And I imagine it's going to continue for probably seven games of this in the back and forth. And it's just been, I mean, it's been incredible. And it's not just the totals. It's been the... It feels like it's low.

Yeah, it does. I feel like 37, I'm like, especially watching because if you watch this game four, both teams took turns missing wide open nets and having chance to convert early on. And it could have been like four, three in the first period. So I feel like this could even be in the 50s, realistically. Tons of posts? Yeah. And tons of completely bizarre bounces off the endboard stanchions at Rogers' place tonight.

I mean, especially as that game reached its conclusion, late in the third. and in overtime. The puck was bouncing all over the offensive zone. I'm struggling with this. Like, I think the main dynamic, the main reason that this has been such a high-scoring series, in addition to the fact that the Oilers, you know, have already made a goalie switch from Skinner to Pickard.

And that Darcy Kemper, I don't think, has exactly been like a calming presence in the blue paint for the Kings. In the overtime, when he was just under complete assault for the Oilers' offense, he made a bunch of big saves. I think very emblematic of everything is the one. sort of recovery save he made in that overtime where the shot off the end boards comes out he spins around goes through him and then he has to make a diving effort to stop it I kept noting to you while watching this and listen like he faced nearly 50 shots yeah and and did his job for the most

part but even in game three and then in this one I don't know what's going on with his catching glove like does he need new equipment or something because it feels like he's struggling so much with a lot of these shots from distance to just corral it and get a stoppage and like the Kings regroup and get a face off in their own zone at least because it's just complete chaos on a lot of these. And the Oilers are getting a lot of traffic and they're very good in tight at tips and layered screens and all of that. But he's really struggling to just stop and blow these plays down. And instead, what's resulting is these chaotic scrambles in front of the King's Net to just keep hurting them over and over again. Or extended shifts where guys can't get off the ice, which leads to the,

you know, Gavrikov penalty, which leads to the game winner by Leon Drysidal. what's wild to me is this could have easily been four nothing kings yeah 10 minutes into the game I mean so let's zoom out let's take it step by step yeah let's zoom out we talked about the goal totals yeah the fact that this series steadfastly refuses to pay out the under and what I do think was notable in the first 10 minutes of this game and I think has been notable throughout the series is Look, when you have McDavid and Dry Saitle buzzing about dissecting, you know, your defensive structure with McDavid's dizzying speed, Drysidal's ability to finish from anywhere, their interplay between themselves with the pop passes, and then, of course, the ability to go up

top for those Evan Bouchard shots, I mean, it's tough. And it does look, especially in those, you know, McDavid versus Gavrokov and Dowdy minutes, like the kings don't really have an answer or a solved to stop the oilers when they're set up in zone. Once the oilers have gained the blue line, it feels like they're effectively able to take a can opener to the king's defensive structure

the way I might to a can of tuna. The kings, however, seem to be able to generate absolutely at will off the rush. And first five minutes of this game, there were multiple two-on-ones. You know, there was all these sequences with Kempe especially, but Fiala, too, just streaking down the wing, generating shots. You saw them from more. You had some from Laferrier.

The king's speed looked completely overwhelming for 35 minutes tonight, maybe 42 minutes. From an oiler's perspective, it just felt like the Oilers. They were able to put the Kings under duress when they were in there, when they were set up once they gained the zone. and I thought that was evident even as the kings were building their lead. But the way that L.A. can get galloping and get attacking the Oilers in transition, I mean, that was, I thought, the shaping factor in this game until rather suddenly it wasn't. I think that is the dynamic here. And I think we spoke about this last time.

You could apply some of these similar concepts to Stars Aves, for example, but just this sort of strength versus strength and how they attack each other's weaknesses seemingly as well in terms of the way they're generating where especially without at home available and the oilers blue line being kind of stretched thin and guys being asked to do a bit too much. The Kings, when they get out and run, it's intoxicating.

Like there's so many opportunities there for them to just pick them apart off the rush and transition. And you saw that in abundance through the first. first 30 to 40 minutes of this game while it seemed like they were actually playing their A game. And on the other hand, as you said, as soon as the OILA is getting the zone, the Kings just completely get caved in and start converging closer and closer to their net. And it seems like the Oilers are just in there for these extended stretches until there's either a penalty or a goal for them.

And so neither team has an answer for defending the other team's biggest strength. And that's what's making such a great game environment and all these. high scoring totals and all the chances. And I think that's what makes the way the Kings chose to approach this even more indefensible, in my opinion. And you can vouch for this. This isn't, you know, armchair, post hoc analysis where we're coming on here after the game.

And I'm like, oh, well, now that we know the result, this is how we're going to talk about and frame it, while we're sitting on the couch watching this game, you start off the third period. And especially after having seen the way the Kings generated their success to build the 3-1 lead, they intentionally chose to just completely, sit back pretty much from the jump in the third period to the point where they weren't pressuring the Oilers at all up the ice they weren't even making a a minimal effort to forecheck they were essentially as soon as they would dump it in they would just send everyone

back and almost align in this sort of three two formation in the neutral zone and what that did was it honestly felt like they were trying to kill a penalty for 20 minutes right like they would just sit back. The Oilers would be able to completely uncontested, not only gain the red line, but even just walk it into the zone when McDavid's out there and get set up and then just get to work at their cycle game and that biggest strength that there is offensively. And so you get to a point where I think that explains what we saw in the third how the Oilers were able to, you know, with that fortunate bounds that comes to Bouchard from Dowdy's clearing attempt to make it three, two. By the time you get to overtime, all of a sudden, I imagine it must be pretty difficult. You

go back into that locker room, you're obviously kicking yourself for not putting it away, being in this position to begin with. And then now after having not played hockey for 20 minutes the way the Kings did, now all of a sudden you have to be like, all right, well, now it's overtime. We need a goal. So we're going to need to actually get back to playing the way they did. And they weren't able to. And so it was just a continuation of that in overtime to the point where the Oilers were just buzzing around, getting all of these looks with Kemper flying around, and then they get that power play goal. I believe the shots on goal were 25 to 9 or so. for the Kings in the second period,

and it wound up 48 to 41 for the Oilers. They had 33 shots on goal in the third period and overtime combined, which is incredible. And part of that is the score effects, but what I'm saying here in sort of dissecting it a little further, I think it was very self-inflicted. The Oilers, obviously, at home, facing a 3-1 deficit,

would have made a push regardless, but it felt like the Kings almost invited them into the door, essentially, because they were very willing participants in their own demise. They chose to stop playing the way they had previously, and I feel like that just ground everything to a halt and fueled what the Oilers were trying to do. Yeah, it took them until, what, five minutes left in the third period?

They finally had that heavy shift from Byfield Moore and Laferrier. And then they had the Fiala rush chance where he hits the post with about six minutes to go, right? And that's as close as they came. By the time they get to overtime, there were a couple interesting. King's scrambles, but doylers had the puck the whole frame. And actually it was interesting about the overtime period was it was the sort of rejigged Henrique line and, you know, the Ryan Nugent Hopkins with Kane and Hyman line.

And I thought that line actually looked pretty good for large stretches of the evening. But it was that line that seemed to be generated. Like Drysidle and McDavid were, look, I'm obviously judging on a curve anytime I say anything even remotely critical. I'm just saying they weren't dominant in overtime until they manufactured the goal or dry-sidal did from Perry. The middle six was kind of taking over for the Oilers in that overtime period, which is inexplicable given the stakes of this and given how many years the Kings have been sort of dragging this up a hill, right? Trying to get over this oiler summit and just in both games this weekend, so close.

what, six minutes on Friday night of taking a three one lead or a three nothing lead. And then once again, I mean, they're there. They're 30 seconds away when Bouchard scores. It's inexplicable. The way they played so conservatively too dim, I think creates this environment where other than the third, sorry, the King's fourth line, which they put on ice entirely, you know, you end up with Adrian Kempe, playing the fewest five-on-five minutes

other than, like, I guess, Kuzmenko, right? Yeah. I mean, he's... Well, and they, I mean, the broadcast was noting this. Like, there was a stretch there while they were nursing the lead where they just took the second-and-a-kos out of the rotation. Yeah. And we're using different line combinations to fill in for them.

And we noted this after game three, where Jordan Spence only played like two and a half minutes or whatever, they wound up scratching him in this game, you get to a point where, like, San Melanius, 143, Jacob Moore-Varare, 225, Jeff Malotte, 227, Trevor Lewis, 519. Brandon Clark, who made a mistake in his own zone earlier in this game,

winds up playing less than 12 minutes. And so you're getting to a point where you're, because Mancoe didn't play in the third period, you're like using 12 guys, essentially, to try to chase around McDavid and Drysaito when they're just coming at you downhill. It's, I feel like it's a massive miscalculation on a, I want to make sure I don't say Jim Killer this time

because people in the Discord were letting me have it after I, uh, no, I don't know. I think you had a mispeak there. Yeah, I mean, he killed, like, King's chances, I think, in this one. because it's incomprehensible to watch the way they played in those first two periods and then how they chose to play the rest of the way. Especially because it costs them in multiple instances. And in multiple instances with, you know, the same pair, the Gavrakov-Dowdy pair, right?

Because you land in this spot where it's at the end of a very long shift where Doughty effectively tips the puck to, excuse me, to Bouchard. And then, look, it's a bouncer. But nonetheless, I mean, that's at the tail end of a long shift. And then obviously the Gavrakov penalty in overtime completely changes the complexion, not just of this game, but of this series, as the Oilers, despite having trailed for almost the entirety of the two games that were played in Edmonton, come out with two pretty improbable wins, you know, stealing victory from the jaws of defeat. Wild. Wild stuff. There's so much, you know, we're also joking and buzz as well while we're watching.

There's so much Quarry Perry involved in all this. And initially I was like, that can't be a good thing to his credit in this game. He made such a massive impact in front of the net, right? He scores the goal where beautiful display of hand eye where he tips it to himself basically around Kemper and tucks it in. And then the broadcast was like, oh, the puck, you know, got wrangled loose somehow. And then you watch the replay. And it's actually Corey Perry, very craftily passing it back to the judge title for essentially an early. Yeah.

So it was incredible on his part. You know, on the Oilers, quite a redemption for Evan Bouchard, who's obviously. I want to say he's been much maligned for this series. It dates well before that, right? We were having these conversations last postseason as well. His mistakes are going to be magnified. You saw that in this game on the Fiala breakaway goal where he messed up in the offense zone.

Yeah, that 3-1 goal is atrocious. He winds up playing 36 minutes in this game, attempting 14 shots. He scores both the goals in the third period. The first one was a bit fortunate, I will say, though, that's what you want from your offense and when you're pushing for offense. it's that middle kind of funnel drive where he's there to accept Dowdy's failed clearing attempt. And then before the tie-ing goal and the lead-up, forget the shot itself, the play he makes

on Byfield's exit attempt to keep it in. He did that a couple times in the third period in overtime here where he's so good at standing at the offensive zone blue line and preventing the puck from leaving the zone. And it felt like it was just such a nightmare battle for the Kings as they were up against the ropes here to actually just get the puck out and buy themselves a few seconds. and to rest. The Oilers were just a brick wall on the blue line, keeping it in. And that sort of magnified a lot of the issues for the Kings as well. So I thought Bouchard was incredible in the pushback here. And it raises a fascinating point for the Oilers and Chris Knoblock heading into

game five. We've joked a lot about his usage of the defense pairs and kind of, you know, almost intentionally and ironically, like using the worst combinations and then being able to atone for his mistakes and wind up looking like the savior and a genius for pulling all the right strings, because of Eckholm's absence and it's felt so drastically in so many ways in this matchup, it puts them in this spot where they're using Nurse and Bushard together and they've been a train wreck for the most part. You look at Bushard splits with and without Nurse in the series, I believe Nurse has been on the ice for 12 of the 19 Kings goals that they've scored in these four games and then how it looks when he plays with Kulak. And so I would hope for

their sake. That's something that you recognize and it's not back to square one heading into game five and they utilize that more moving forward. But yeah, do you have any notes on that or anything else from the other side? Because I got a few more things on the Kings that I want to hit here before we completely let them off the hook. Yeah. I mean, I think I think more than anything, the play of VanderCainson's coming back into the lineup, he, it hasn't been like there was obviously the tough penalty in the first game back. But I do think that look with Hyman and Ryan Nugent Hopkins was huge in terms of giving the Oilers sort of a secondary run here.

The bottom six is still a problem, I think, as this series extends, I thought it was a problem certainly in the first half tonight. And the lack of speed remains devastating. You know, I think the Oilers would be up. Like the Oilers would be in a very different position. I think if they had a better answer for what the Kings are able to do for them off the rush. But at least it feels like they've stabilized a second forward line, allowing them to keep dry-saddle and McDavid sort of cooking together.

So I like that part of this, at least. I have no idea how Fiala leaves his game with just one goal score. He hit the post twice, including, you know, we should mention for all the, everything we've just said about the Kings, you know, completely abandoning the rush game and trying to score. While it was 3-2, there was, what, four or five minutes left? If Fiala gets that two-on-one and rings it all. the bar for a second time in the game early on. He had a two-on-one with Byfield.

And I don't know if he missed the net or if Pickard got a piece of it because at the time, we were watching the T&D broadcast and one of my big issues with them, now that we're in Palm Springs here and we're watching these games on the U.S. broadcast is for whatever reason, they refuse to give us the replays we're craving. Yeah. Something happens. And I'm like, oh, I want to see what actually happened there. And instead they just either just show someone sitting on the bench or flashback to a

random play that had no interest level to us at all. and then we switched over to, and this isn't me being a company man, I should say, but we switched over to the Sportsnet Canadian feed, and I'm so glad we did because Jack Michaels in these big game moments and especially with the drama and tension in overtime was incredible. I feel like he was just yelling the entire time, and it was purely passion-fueled. The action was pulsating, as you'd imagine. And so as I thought, as good as the game was, I kept being just like, what a great call. I was really enjoying his work in overtime today.

it just shows you. I feel like having these broadcasts in-house live is very important as well. I get the logistical demands, but come on. I think the way that Jack's just willing to completely lean into the emotion of the moment and just exclaim about his level of excitement, it does elevate it for me as a viewer. As a neutral viewer, no emotional investment in the Oilers fortunes, I get drawn in to, I get drawn in more as a result of his, you know, almost like there's a certain anxiousness to the call, but it's fantastic, just especially in that overtime with 24 shots on goal in 17, 5 on 5 minutes and just

like absolute pandemonium at both sides. And frankly, neither side really can stop the other in terms of doing what they want to do. Having Edwards, or sorry, having, having Michael's on the call at that level of enthusiasm was just awesome. God, I really hope you weren't referencing Jack Edwards. I briefly had another Jonas Gustafson moment. Yeah.

Yeah, I thought that, you know, I mentioned Fiala and the one goal and the chances he had. I thought him in Byfield and Byfield obviously was on the wrong end of that Bushard play I mentioned earlier, but I thought their speed

was very evident in this game. I thought that... I thought his defensive game was really good, too. I thought it was as well. I thought that DeNo was phenomenal. Exception. You know, early on,

had that one-on-one pickpocket to lead to a more scoring chance on the PK against McDavid. He had the two really nifty assists. He had like this play in the neutral zone, hand eye, knocks it down, gets a rush chance for himself through the defender's skates. I thought he was excellent.

I imagine that, you know, for Jim Killer here, heading into L.A., we're going to see as much as humanly possible of the know against McDavid to give these other lines a chance to cook offensively. It is very regrettable, in my opinion, as you noted earlier, that because of how they chose to approach this and attack this. We wound up seeing so little Adrian Kempai relatively. You look at

the Oilers and using their top guys in the 30s. Kempay finishing where he did. He didn't score in this game for once. I thought he was incredible, especially early again. Yeah, that where he changed the release, so where he gets the puck sort of high in the King's Zone. Yep. And Darnell Nurse has to give him so much space. Darnel knows the Petrangelovers McKinnon, and he's like, whoa, I'm in trouble here and he like he takes four steps back and he still gets beat out wide but it was also he also had to do that and it was also the right call because while he still permitted a quality shot from the perimeter it was from the perimeter it was like an extra foot at wide outside as a result of the route that kempi had to take because he played it so conservatively kempi still has the post so

I'm not trying to you know uh overdue the praise for how darnel nurse played that chance but At least he was able to put Kempe to a part of the ice where it's a little bit harder to finish. The way that Kempe, though, changed the release point. Yeah, he brought it into his gates. Oh. How he gets so much torque on that blows my mind, just incredibly elite. He's so fun to watch. I think he's been, as we said in part one, the most electric player this postseason.

And I just want to watch more of it. And I imagine if he keeps playing this way, he rang one on the power play from the top of the umbrella off of Pickard's head. It seemed like Pickard had no idea where it was. He had a beautiful cross-hice pass with that Fiala post we mentioned earlier. So just watching him cook is such a treat. You got any other notes or takeaways from this game? I feel like we've hit a lot of it.

We spent 35 minutes on this series to start off our most recent show. Yet after a game like this, I feel like we just go all day about it. What can we do? Like sometimes the drama is just too good. And this series in particular, 2-2. It ends up two two, and yet the route we've taken here has been a journey. Every game feels like its own seven game series. You know, every game feels like a seven game series, frankly, where one team takes a three-nothing lead and the other storms back to make it.

And I don't know if that says something about the volatility of this Oilers team. I don't know if this is the way that the Edmonton Oilers just have to play to beat the Kings. You'd have to think their speed issue catches up to them. at some point because I still think my major impression coming out of this series is one in which the Oilers are hanging on by their fingernails but have just so much elite talent that they are able to avoid, you know, at the, by the absolute skin of their teeth, actually getting beat by this king's team. So you sort of think about how that dynamics played out and then you think about the fact that this Oilers team really is a giant that the Kings cannot slay.

man, going to be fascinating to watch them try to close this out. Well, I think you and I, I shouldn't speak for you. I generally view all of these games as kind of isolated events for the most part. Yeah, me too. Just because the motivations are so varying depending on the score of the series and where the game's being played. And you get the day off, you have a chance to reset a little bit. The circumstances changes with the battles and home ice advantage and last change and all of that. Get at the same time, if you're the Kings here, I don't know how you shake.

how demoralizing, you know, it must be that you were this close on the precipice. I mean, you even had forget the Bifiel, or the Fiala chance late to put it up four or two off the rush. There was a play where Lafairier got her in his own zone with the empty net and kind of just dumped it out as opposed to actually taking a shot for it. They were excruciatingly close, and they're still in a good spot relatively because you got, we've seen what the two games in L.A. looked like. Yeah. And L.A. made that spirit, or Edmonton made that spirit of push at the end of game one, but the King's, still should feel pretty confident about the way they've played there all year and they're going to be in more control of the matchups at the same time, this is just resurfacing a lot of the previous questions we've had. And now you're getting to the point where it's like, man,

how are we not up three one in this series? And you basically have to go back and do it all over again. They have the speed and they've shown us that they have a blueprint for creating looks. But they essentially just need to string together an effort of that from the first minute to the last minute as opposed to just the first new periods. Yeah, and we know, like, one thing I will say is I think the Kings, I watch these games and it no longer feels like the Kings are good enough to have, to simply have their heart broken by Connor McDavid. They're a real threat to win the series.

But they're also, Connor McDavid's always a threat to break your heart, especially if you're the Los Angeles Kings. And we've seen that, you know, at length through the first four games. Yeah, he was, he was dancing tonight. I mean, he was getting, and, you know, the Kings are very. physical with him, obviously a lot of layers and sticks. And yet, getting from point A to point B is pretty easy for him. And he was just kind of carving through it and weaving through traffic. And Troy Seidel as well, right? He scores the overtime winner. But he had that play where he holds

off Kempai and draws the triven penalty. I think they scored on that power play. He also had that entry. I think it was an overtime. He just ran over Warren Vogel as if he wasn't there. That was wild. That was an incredibly impressive, just sort of Yeah, physical bit of output to protect the puck, gain the zone. I mean, you don't see that very often, but it was, you know, incredible. Man, I love this series. I can't wait for game five, and I can't wait for more opportunities to talk about it. Let's take our break here, and then when we come back, we'll finish up this Sunday special

with a little bit of a different wrinkle. You're listening to the Hockey, Ocast, streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we are back here on the Hockeyockegee. PDO cast. Tom, I thought it would be fun for us to close out today because we've spent so much time sort of dissecting and analyzing a lot of these series to take a step back and take a little bit of a bigger picture of you. It's obviously still very early. There's going to be so many changes and twists and turns at this point between now and the end of the postseason. But we're about nine, 10 games into the 2025 NHL playoffs. And I thought it would be fun for us to look at

the very early preliminary cons might market a little bit and maybe some of the best values on the board or some of the, you know, we can use it as a launching path to talk about some of other teams or series. I think last year early on, we gave the listeners, Wyatt Johnston and Seth Jarvis at like very, very long shot prices. Neither obviously came to fruition, although if you were holding that Y Johnson ticket, you probably felt pretty good about it through the first two rounds. Oh yeah. He was like by far the best offensive player. Probably got a decent cash out if you were betting on an app that offers such things. So let's let's look at it. Is there anyone that kind of comes to mind for you as

And let's dig a little further beyond the very obvious ones, right? Because I think Nathan McKinnon right now, because of his production, and I think people feeling pretty good about the abs moving forward after the game for performance is atop the leaderboard. Anyone sticking out to you as like an interesting dart throw or flyer? Yeah. I mean, there's a few that jump out to me immediately, but I do want to start with Kempe,

because not only is he the PDO cast patron saint. But can someone win the consmite after losing in round one? We saw McDavid do it after losing and I'm not winning the title last year. Yeah, I mean, that was the tap-in of all tap-in cons-smyths for me. But Adrian Kempay plus 3,500, given just the way that his counting stats will look if the Kings move on after the series, regardless of what happens next. but also because of the role that he's playing on the power play, because of how dominant he looks,

because he's clearly the engine of this King's team. I think that's a very appealing one to me at 35 to 1. I like that. I mean, you don't have to twist my arm to like any Adrian Kempai content. I think the most obvious one for me, and I've been thinking about this for a couple days now, and I've remained very steadfast in this, Jacob Slavin at plus 13,000 is interesting to me, and I'll tell you why.

If you look at the cup winners market, the hurricanes are still valued as the favorite in the league. Now, I don't think that necessarily means that people think the hurricanes are going to win the Stanley Cup this year. A lot of that is influenced by series score and then being up 3-1, going back home with a chance to close out the devils, of winnable round two for them against either the capitals if they close out or the HABs, if they make a triumphant comeback.

And so their proximity to the cup or likelihood compared to some of these other teams that are still engaged in two-two kind of coin flips is dictating a lot of this. But he's clearly their best player. Yep. He's going to lead them a nice time.

He's playing over 24 minutes so far in this series. I imagine that'll ramp up even further when the stakes get even higher. And I guess the counter to that would be we saw about as flawless a defensive performance as you're ever going to see from Gus Forsling en route to the Panthers winning the Cup last year. And still by the end of it, he didn't really factor into people's ballots. Instead, we saw either a lot of Barkov, if you were going to pick a Panther or Bobrovsky, of course. And I think that was just kind of reflective of people not really understanding what drives defensive results and not

watching these games and just kind of looking at goals against them being like, oh, the goalie did it. But in this case, we saw Freddie Anderson get hurt already in this series. Kachnikov came in. So there's questions there if you're going to go goalie route. Svetnikov had the hat trick in game four. He leads them with four goals. But just because of the way the hurricanes are constructed and the way they play offensively,

I doubt you're going to see one of those seasons if they do have a long run where one of their players is putting up these ridiculous offensive totals. And so there's no real for a team that's very, like, team-oriented and identity-based. No one exemplifies that better than Slaven. And so if they were to make a long run, I don't really see anyone that's going to make that compelling a case beyond, you know, one of their forward is just getting incredibly hot and scoring a ton of goals, which is very doable, certainly. But I feel like at those odds, the market is just not reflecting best player on the most likely team to win at this point, I guess. Yeah, I know. I think that's the right call.

Like, at the end of the day, I don't know that I can top that. I think that's the most undervalued number on the board. From that perspective, without question. Here's a play, though. Here's a play, though. Plus 21,000. So this is 210 to 1. Ready for this?

Miro Heskin. Okay. He hasn't played yet. Yeah, pitch me. Oh, he hasn't played yet. Okay. No, you're not off to a good start. He hasn't played a single game yet.

So it's a lot. And his value has been shown. And his value has been shown. Yeah. They are still in it with a chance to win. He still has a chance to make the difference. The stars have successfully bought him time. And we know that they can't really hang as composed with the avalanche without it.

If he comes back and they're able to get by this series and they're able to get deep into the playoffs and maybe even get it done, we're going have such a stark Star's panic memory from the way they limped into the playoffs, from the way they looked through the first four games, even if they were able to grind out a couple wins against the avalanche, and what would come next? And that narrative heft really makes,

I think, a close decision, right? If you're at the finish line with a Stars Stanley Cup winner and it's like, Ottinger's played well, you know, Harley's, they're,

you know, played well. Wyatt Johnston has this many points, whatever. It's like, yeah, but things clicked in for this stars team when Miro got back into the lineup. I'm just saying, from that perspective, that extra narrative bump, I think, helps him a lot. I think that's very compelling. I guess my issue would be, and this is true for a lot of the board right now. You don't buy them as a Stanley Cup winner.

Exactly. Yeah. And especially at the point of the series where they're at, right, where whether it's even someone on the Knights, right? when we started this process, I really like Tomash Hurdle, for example, because I thought that he's so integral to what makes them special offensively in terms of his role in the power play. I could see him, especially in the secondary matchups, putting up big point totals. And his underlying metrics have been awesome through this series.

He hasn't really produced that much offensively. If the Golden Knights get through this, especially with Eichol's struggles, I feel like he could be very in play here, and he's, what, plus 3,200 or something like that? But we've also seen them struggle against this wild team in round one. And so I feel like that complicates stuff. It's a very murky board, certainly, right? Like I still, I know they lost what, 4-1, 5-1 after the empty netter in game three coming back home, getting a glad back to the lightning.

And the lightning, as we expected, are back in that series. And it's going to be an incredibly difficult one. I still feel in my heart of hearts that the Panthers would be my pick to win the Stanley. the cup and be the most likely team to get there. And so Barkov at plus 2,900 would be interesting to me, just because, once again, I think the best player on the team most likely to win the cup is interesting. You've got Bobrovsky and a good chuck favored ahead of them.

I guess I wouldn't trust the voters to get it right because people, for all the talk about Barkov not being the most underrated player anymore because people appreciate his greatness after these back-to-back runs instead of Stanley Cup final and winning it last year, that's not reflected. By the way, the market dictates his importance

to his team and the way, when it comes down to voting, that people are skewed or placing their boats. Can I interest you in some Matt Boldy, 100 to 1? You can.

I mean, at that point, if you're throwing flyers at that price, I like that. Yeah, the thing is, though, is he's got the same odds as Shea Theodore has already had a tough game, Pavel Dorofiev, I guess that's somewhat interesting on the marshal so theory of if the Vegas Golden Knights win,

scoring winger who plays with Eichl is a decent way to sort of play that. But, you know, I just think when you look at the other guys valued at that range, Jason Robertson's valued at that range. Braden Point, right? I think that's very compelling to me in terms of value left on the board. I'll want to give you one that's a little bit less of a wild long shot. And that is Anthony Stolars. Right?

At 31 to 1. Yep. I mean, he's been the clear standout for the Leafs. And interestingly, the Leafs top players have all been so productive, especially on the power play, that in some ways it's hard to choose between them, right? But if they're going to play a lot of games that are relatively low scoring, that are relatively tight checking that are narrow, if they're going to play the way they've played all season.

we know how good Stolars has to be for them to win, right? Like the thesis of this team, of this Leif's team right now, relies so heavily on their goaltender and on Stolars. He's been up to the task to this point. Kind of like that one. Just given what I would see is the correlation between what a Leafs, a Deep Leafs run looks like and how probable it is that Stolars is getting the lion's share of the credit for it. I think that makes a lot of sense.

I would, based on what I've seen from them down the stretch this season, and even in this series, I would jump out to the 3-0 lead, I would have my skepticism in a round two series against either Florida or Tampa Bay. But if they were able to get by that somehow, all of a sudden, I imagine it would require a Herculian effort from Stolar's, and so he's being pretty good shape. And then maybe you get the hurricanes bump in the conference final. Can I interesting a little Tom Wilson plus 12,000? Oh, let's go. Can you win the MVP for changing games with massive hits? I think he can.

I think if the capitals somehow won the Stanley Cup this year, I think voters and NHL hockey writers would be very easy to convince of his impact. I do think he'd need to have a double-digit goal-scoring. goals scores. He'd have to have double-digit goal totals for sure. Yep. But man. I was mostly using that as a segue to talk a little. Well, we should talk a little bit about that game and that hit. What was interesting to me was there was this long moment in that game where the Canadians like absolutely seem to be in control of that game. Despite having like eight shots on goal. Despite having like eight shots on goal. They had a lead.

and on top of it all, after the bench shenanigans in game three, you had Josh Anderson kind of looking like the Habs answer to Tom Wilson, very much so. I thought it was clear that he was finishing hits under the skin. And then him and Tom Wilson on that shift, leaving the capital zone, got tangled up. And I said to you in real time as we were watching it, I was like, at some point, if the caps are going to win this series, Tom Wilson can't allow

Josh Anderson to be the Habs answer to Tom Wilson. He has to be Tom Wilson. There's no one else like me, which is the reality, right? Like, the reality is is that there is only, he is a one-of-one figure in the NHL at the moment, the sort of apex predator, as it were. And it was later on in that shift that he throws the carry a hit, which I don't know. Did you think it was a dirty hit? No, I don't think so.

I don't know. It was a massive hit. It was an incredibly massive. Yeah. But I just like, I don't see what the penalty would be that you'd call on, like that you'd call on that play. I don't think the question was calling a penalty. I think it was, I guess, a worry for Alex Carrey being okay. Well, I'm definitely worried about that.

Yeah. But I just, I don't think it's an illegal hit. Yes. So anyway, and that obviously changes the game. the Canadians are outnumbered on the key moment where the caps tie it. Pretty wild. It's very rare that you see a neutral zone hit changed the course of a game, but it indisputably did in Montreal on Sunday.

Keep talking while I look up Anthony Bovilliers. It's my thoughts here. I've been loving this storyline, and I saw a little bit of it with former Blackhawks as well, right? Like kind of these cast-offs from the worst. teams in the league that are in prominent roles in the postseason and succeeding in scoring goals. You had the max to only overtime winner in game two. Sorry, is this not a Canucks scoring storyline?

No, but it applies to other teams as well. But obviously, you see a lot with Kuzmanko. Goddette. Goddette, yes. Oliver Reckman-Larsson. Right. Schmidt? Yes.

I mean, I don't know. It feels like to me the connects are the nexus of this. Right. Or it should be in our minds. All jokes aside, I've been actually very impressed with. And I believe a player that I've been quite skeptical. of in the past and then he gets thrust into this prominent role on the top line

with Alexi Protis out and is actually playing, I mean, outdogged Hudson and Caulfield on, I believe, the first goal, the cap scored today and has been making plays for them. So kudos to him. Looks dynamic and man, he's so fast. Like at the end of the day, he's fast and he's comfortable

in these playoff games. And, you know, he's come up big before he scored historic goals in the conference final just to ask a New York Islanders fan about it. And, you know, the truth is, is that that speed and that ability to the very least absorb minutes at the top of your lineup, but then certainly over the course of the past week, he's actually been additive playing in the top six. I don't typically like him there, but the speed

to challenge teams on the counter and off the rush, the defensive reliability to play up or down lineup. And then, you know, the fact that he's come up big in the playoffs, I mean, he's a pending UFA, right, who signed for kind of like the Gustav Nyquist clip, basically, over the course of this last summer. And I mean, there's a lot of teams that he could help. Like, he'd be a really useful piece if the Edminton Oilers had him in the lineup, had that speed in the lineup right now. This is the most egregious users of our time here on the PEDAO guest since you talked about Alexei Torbchenko. So on this episode? Yeah. No, on that, note though on the sort of forecasting ahead and looking at this tape and finding you so you know we saw

manjipani who had a down year yeah on the cabs and I was expecting you know for all this talk about their pro scouting and bringing guys in and them having career years he wasn't one of those guys and he was relatively not ineffective but unproductive compared to the season he had a couple years ago in calgary and what I think of him as a player scores a big goal in this game four and it feels like he's probably a guy we'll see if the if the market just gets juiced because of the lack of real talent available and everyone having more money to spend. We might see some crazy contracts. But based on his stats this season,

I imagine he's a guy who probably goes for that sort of like awkward middle ground of a couple years, couple million A.V. And I'm still a believer in him. And I feel like he, especially on the right team. Like we were joking about how like the amount of dog in him, he's such a unnatural Tampa Bay Lightning middle six winger. Yeah.

I'm not sure if that's the fit because of everything they've already committed to their team. But something like that, I feel like there's a next sort of. a chapter here for for mcgiani in terms of him having big moments and being a player we fall in love with again yeah it was a big shot too um i i will say though you know watching them play one thing that stunned me about the bovilliers round one glow up is like he looks more impactful than um manjepani i would not have assumed that i'd have ever thought that certainly not uh you know

from the perspective of 12 months ago any other notes on habs caps or do you want to go do want to do do a little. I mean, we talked about Stollars. We could talk a little bit of a Leafsend because we got to see that, what, game four, the third straight game in that series, the window over time. This is coin flip hockey. It's such an unbelievably hilarious series for a number of reasons. I feel like the overtime winners are near the top of it. And in watching that game, we were kind of joking about how it would be such fitting hockey where towards the end of the third after the Leafs tied it and then they get the double minor penalty on the power play in overtime and they come so close and it feels like they're kind of bearing down on victory and sealing the series and then I've watched enough NHL postseason overtimes to know that

generally the goal comes against run of play by the team that's hanging on for dear life. And sure enough, the senators get a bit of zone time but wind up resorting to a million low percentage perimeter shots from bad angles. And then one of them, Jake Sandserson, flying into the zone, keeping the puck in off the wall, just kind of floats one past Stolar's who had been so good on those sets of shots all series and that's the overtime winner we get and it was just so fitting for not only

NHL postseason hockey but also this particular series The Senators sort of lack of offensive juice is obviously put them behind the eight ball in this series The truth is that with three consecutive overtime games they could have been in a better spot very easily

and yet I don't know that they deserve to be given their actual form, given what they've generated, given how often they've trailed throughout this series to this point. And, you know, I think year sort of, the first full year, I guess, of that like Staeos Green, new hockey operations, figureheads era in Ottawa, I think especially now that they avoided the sweep in the Battle of Ontario, it's going to be unqualified success, like a sign of meaningful progress for that organization after year one.

But it's not enough to have just raised your floor to this point. I do think an ambitious summer, as much as you can have an ambitious summer as the auto senators, is going to be required. Like, they need to find a way to graft some real, like, explosives into, into this lineup. Just some, just some fireworks, some guys that can generate shots. I mean, if you get shots, guys that can generate chances. Chances, yeah.

I mean, but they got by with, you know, like Adam Goddette being a useful game breaker for them at the bottom of the lineup. And that's awesome. Like, he's been really good. But whether it's, you know, like Clevin moving the puck, skating the puck up ice from the back end, you know, you watch it. And it's like, oh, that's good. Like, they need more of that. But they need more of that at a totally different level. That this, ultimately, I just worry a little bit that, you know, while Green's sort of come in.

really upgraded their defensive sort of structure, solidity. They feel very L.A. Kings three years ago to me. And I think you've got to be very careful not to get stuck in that realm, right? As we've sort of seen as the Kings have taken that step, leveled up a little bit, in terms of what they're trying to do offensively, at least until the third period on Sunday night. You know, I think you got to avoid that cap that at least the way they're playing right now, I do think puts on them. And their personnel.

It's not just how they're playing. It's also who they have. Yeah, I can see how you fall in those pitfalls, though, because if you had told anyone involved in the Sends operation, whether it's someone on the team, management owner, fans, you're going to be the Kings from three years ago this season. I think they'd be like, sign me up. It's been so long since we played competitive hockey where we weren't a laughing stock. And so you get to this point, but then you realize that it's sort of

just the tip of the iceberg and you need to have greater ambitions and I feel like it would probably start there. So yeah, no, that's an interesting. What do you think? I think our next show is going to be on Wednesday evening. There's going to be a couple nights of postseason hockey so a lot's going to change.

What do you forecast is going to be the thing that's going to be like our main talking point? Like, wow, can you believe that happened? or like, oh, it's going to be whatever happens. Whatever happens at Kings Oilers? Yeah.

Kings, I mean, Kings Oilers is the most, you know, unhinged, incredible, unpredictable series. I've seen in a long time,

and that's every single game feels like that. Every single game feels like a Tolstoy novel or something. I mean, there's length to it and weight to it

and unpredictability to it. So, I mean, that I think ultimately is going to capture the majority of our attention in the early part of this week. And then I,

I hope we're not just talking about sort of Connor Hallibuck. That's my fear. My fear is that we're just talking about Connor Hallibuck when we do that show on Wednesday. Well, the good thing is that this round one is really exceed our expectations, right? Because after the first couple days, you posited that theory. I was worried. You're in the pediocast about how we're headed towards this trap of the NHL becoming a league where round one is a bunch of sort of sweeps or gentlemen sweeps or like teams that are clearly

overmatch or don't belong. It's just a... We still could get a couple. You still could get a couple, but we have no sweeps. Nope. We've got, especially in the West, which we've devoted a large chunk of today's two-part show to. We've got four, all four, four out of four, go on a game five tied to two-two with a ton of interesting storyline. So I feel like it's really delivered.

And yeah, round one of the NHL poll season is just always the best. The best. And thank goodness it remains. All right, buddy. We're going to get out of here. Everyone go follow Tom online, listen to Kinnock's talk as well on the Sports Night Radio Network here. as well. Join us in the PDOCS Discord. You can chime in there, get the latest scheduling updates from us, just be involved with the show in general and obviously partake in the community.

Help us out with a five-star rating wherever you listen to the show and drop us a nice little review. It only takes a second of your time and it helps us a lot moving forward. And that is all for today. As I said, we'll be back Wednesday night. I believe to catch up on whatever's happened between now and then. So thank you for listening to the HockeyPediocast streaming on the SportsNet Radio Network.