The Hockey PDOcast - Point Total Projections For Each Team This Season

Episode Date: September 11, 2026

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Dom Luszczyszyn to go through each team's point total projection for this coming season.There will be a couple of new episodes each week that will be Patreon-exclusive only for our subscribers, and won't be appearing on this free feed. To gain access to all of that content make sure you've subscribed to the PDOcast's Patreon. The subscription provides you with the ad-free version of every single episode we do this season, and they will be available for you to listen as soon as we're done recording.We've also finally got some merch available for our listeners! If you'd like to get your hands on a PDOcast shirt or hat to rep the show, you can do so here. If you've already subscribed to the Patreon, one of the perks that comes with it is that you get a discount on all of the show merch.I'd also recommend subscribing to our Youtube channel. We'll be posting full shows on there more regularly this season so that you can watch along with us. I'm hoping to grow the channel this year, so each subscription, like, and comment is greatly appreciated. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitri Fulipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Dom. What's going on, man? Not too much. Just trying to enjoy the summer while prepping for a slightly earlier start to the hockey season.

The season starts on September 29th, I believe, opening night. So we are going to do a little exercise I thought, you know, in light of the regular season. rapidly approaching. I wanted to look ahead to do some early projections, I guess. For the 26-27 campaign, where teams stand right now, how the markets sort of viewing the relative quality, our level of confidence, and then just taking stock of where we're at about a month or so.

I think the easiest way for us is probably go division by division, just so that we get through everyone, and I'm sure we're going to spend more time on some teams than others. But let's start with the Pacific Division. Let's just get it out of the way. So I'm going to go from bottom to top and we can work our way up. I think that's especially prudent for this one because the Canucks and the Flames at the bottom. The Canucks are listed at 74.5 over under their team total.

The flame is 77.5. And then you've got the crack in at 79.5. I've been saying this on the show for a couple weeks. Now I'm curious for your daycona. You will be doing the team by team breakdowns ahead of the season. So I'm sure you're going to be considering this as well. do you agree that the Canucks and the flames, as of right now at least, are the only two teams in the league that actually want to be bad this season

or at least comfortable being bad? Like someone is going to wind up, if those are the two worst teams, someone's going to wind up finishing 30th and having a really bad season. But it feels like all of these teams, even the Cracken, who have very publicly been trying to get better, trying to acquire Jason Roberts.

And they pay Bobby McMahon. Like they're like, I don't think they want. to be bad, they will be bad. But the Canucks and Flames, I think, are the only two that at the moment are like very strongly incentivized, I guess, to be as bad as they can so that they have as high likelihood as possible of getting the first overall pick. Yeah.

There are a lot of teams that should perhaps try a bit harder to be bad, especially considering who's available in the draft this year. It feels like the Flames and Canucks are the only teams that are like, yes, we're. We want him. We want to be bad. But there are two teams that I think are near that bucket and are perhaps delusionally believing they are not in that bucket. And one of them is the Cracken.

I have four teams at 75 points or under. And then the next, the fifth worst team is at 82. So that's the gap. And I think the Cracken are unfortunately in that, in that bottom four category. Now, 75 points would be a remarkable. improvement for the Canucks who finished with 58 points last year. I do, I don't want to dismiss the impact that going from Adam Foote, who for my money was the worst coach, not only in the league last year, but that I can recall in recent memory in the

NHL, from him to Mani Malhotra, which is an unproven commodity. We haven't seen him be a head coach at the NHL level, but I think people speak pretty highly of them. And at the same time, while I think there's reasons to be excited or optimistic about the Canucks moving in the right direction finally as a franchise, the reality of how little talent is presently on this roster, I feel like is just going to kind of make that a mood point. So I feel like honestly, there's a reasonable gap there where they probably won't have 58 points again the way they did last year.

But 75 still feels a bit ambitious to me unless you just want to make the argument that they're going to be playing a bunch of games against the flames and Cracken. And if they happen to win some of those, then you all of a sudden can cobble together. enough points to at least make that a possibility. Yeah, there's a bit of a Pacific division bump across the board. I have the Canucks at the lower end of that category where I have them at 70 and as the worst team. Dran's had a piece earlier this week sort of outlining how the roster got worse over the

summer and they're trying to be bad, but the coaching impact is really difficult to price in just because Malhotra is a... an unknown and he might Dan mused it and just get an extra 20, 30 points out of a roster that like there's still some pieces from a few years ago that did well.

So I don't know, maybe Pettersen has a remarkable bounce back to the player we all thought he was two or three years ago. The way I do things for coaches is I look at each returning player's projected value from the year before the coach and the year after the coach.

And I think I had like 60 coaches or so since like 2018. And Adam Foote was the second worst or the worst impact of any coach. So just removing that alone is an unbelievable swing. But it's probably not enough to make that roster interesting. I still think like it'll be they'll look more competitive. and maybe they'll look like the first year badpock leaps. That's the dream, I think, for the Canucks fans. But I don't know, 70 points feels fair considering their 58 point team who got worse but got a better coach.

Yeah, I think that's right. The crack in the last three years after that playoff run they had in their second season in the league, 81, 76, and 79 points. I do think an important thing to consider here is that Jared McCann and Vince Dunn, two of their best most impactful players. are going to be UFAs next summer and are both either around 30 or in their 30s. And so if they actually become a seller and move those guys off, and we saw a couple years ago when they made the Gord, Burek Strand trade to Tampa, like they're capable of doing that, even if I don't think they want to right now.

If the season goes poorly enough early on, it's conceivable that this team gets even worse. And those are, I would argue, like, the two kind of higher upside offensive players on this roster that could actually turn shots into goals, which they struggle with so much. And so if you remove those two guys for futures or young players who aren't going to be as good, all of a sudden,

like I think they legitimately could get into that conversation with them. But for the time being, while it's fair to quibble with like what, ultimately why you put together this roster, like there's enough competent NHL players that they probably won't truly bottom out. Or I guess it's not as likely as it is for the Canucks and the flames. So I put them,

I think it's fair to put them a little bit above, but I think it's within their, range of outcomes to potentially be just as bad as them. Yeah, they can get there. I think they're definitely better than those teams. But just a lack of high-end talent. I do wonder if we start seeing some jumps from their younger players. I think Baneers is maybe one most underrated defensive forwards in the league at this point.

And I am just waiting for that offensive breakout kind of in the Couturee vein, where for like a lot of his early years I think Flyers fans were mad because he wasn't a one C yet but he was like a defensively elite 40 point player but Neers is a little more offensively gifted

because he has more opportunities than Cout did at the time but I wonder if we see if we ever see that breakout into maybe the 70, 80 point range while maintaining that two-way ability this is where it gets interesting so we've got the three

California teams the sharks, ducks, and king, pretty much tightly condensed your sharks at the bottom 93.5, ducks 94.5, and then the Kings up top at 95 and a half. Do you think that's fair? Because I think the natural inclination would be the excitement about how close the sharks were last year to make in the playoffs, just how good celebrini is and conceivably as hard as it is to believe, getting even better.

You add Ivar Stenberg, you add the defensemen, which we both obviously agree. were questionable decisions from like a cap allocation perspective but are going to help this season. They bring in Mason Marchman as well, like a full season of Chernishaw, of Michael Mesa improving. Like, I think the case that you could put together for why this team could be better is very visibly in sight. Yet I don't want to lose sight of the fact that while they were closer to playoffs last year, like they lost 23 games by three or more goals last year and only the Canucks were blown. loan out more often than them.

And so I do think there's still quite a bit of work. Like it's not as foregone of a conclusion as I think we'd like for it to be as soon as this year. But I don't know. Like how would you kind of, would you lump those three teams together or would you kind of flip that order? What would you do with it? I would lump those three teams together.

I think the market is overrating all three of them. I think it is sort of a thing where I would imagine one of them gets to 95 points. maybe even more. And I wouldn't be shocked to two younger teams take a terrific leap in some fashion. But they do have to play the rest of the league. And I just don't think any of those three teams are above average teams. To be honest, the kings are the kings. They're very boring.

They're good defensively. Their offense is weird. I think their second line center is Eric Halle at this point. They might put Kempe. That is a generous description of the king's offense. Weird. That implies that it might be like interesting in some capacity. Sure.

I remember a few years ago, I called the Kings fake good. And I've been vindicated a lot over the years in the sense that I'll say something and people get mad and then a year or two later, they'll be like, yeah, that was fine. That was fine. That makes sense. I think they were pretty good two years ago. Like they should have beat the Oilers in that series. Fake good.

Jim Keller just. a disaster class. Who's he coaching now? I don't think he got another job. Oh, wait. He got another job in the league. Yeah. We'll forget about that.

Here's the foolish case for the Kings. Year 1 under Peter Labulet. I mentioned this on a show earlier this week. Big brain here. So these are the five times he's taken over a team. 112 points, 106 points, 104 points, 1004 points, 113, 114. Now, I think these are different circumstances,

but I do think there's something to the argument that a coach with a shorter shelf life back can juice early results in terms of motivation or whatever. So I think that's certainly plausible. And the defensive baseline is high enough that I think, you know, the bottom's not going to fall out if by field for, you know, I've been waiting for 25 years now for the glow up if it happens. if Brand Clark actually starts playing number one defense minutes,

like Fiala's back, their offense was better upon Pernarin's arrival. It didn't look like it in that series against the ass, but I think that was more about the opponent than then themselves. Like it's probably fair. As much as I'd like to put the sharks up there, I do feel like the Kings certainly have a higher floor. So yeah, I think that's right.

The ducks are interesting to me, right? Because their highs and lows were about as dramatic as any teams in the league last year, both in terms of how good they look at times and how bad they look at other times but also like the wins and losing streaks they had. What are you putting any stock in the fact that they were 8-0 in shootouts, 18 and 5, I believe,

past regulation and 24, 6 and 5 in one goal games. For a young team, I'm not sure if that's going to continue, especially like Mason McTavich was one of the things he was really good at was the shootout. And he's gone. So I don't know what to do with that yet. It seems kind of scary assuming Cutter Gochay does sign in his back with the team to fully fade them because him,

Seneca, Carlson and Lecombe are very, very good and are only going to get better. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I am not pricing the Ducks as a 92, 93 point team from last year, maybe 91. They're around there. I am pricing them as if they were a minus 23 goal differential team because I think they were minus 15 and then they were 8 in a shootout, which isn't real. So minus 23 in regular hockey and that also I think just includes three-on-three as well.

So I think at 5 and 5 they just weren't as good as they were built. Obviously they played really well in the playoffs and their young team and they can explore any time. And honestly, they're in such a soft division that their chance to make playoffs are high anyways, but I think what are they at, like 94 and a half for their total for right now. And I think that is a bit absurd when you look at their defense group in particular. So we have Lacombe, fantastic, incredible. What a player. Then you have Mitchikov, Moore, Linneau, Jensen,

Hellison, some other guy I probably have never heard of might make the team. I don't know. Do they have a second top four defensemen? Like, would you put, Minchikov is like really on the cusp and offensively he's there,

but he's just been so hoarse defensively to start that I am not sure I'm there yet. I'd like to see it this year. And then other than him, it is very dicey. Yeah, I guess the argument would be that despite having more names we were more familiar with last year,

I'm not entirely sold. It's going to be as massive a downgrade as it seems like it will be from a name brand perspective because I think a lot of the players they had previously were pretty overrated at this stage of their career. So I don't know. I could foresee I wouldn't wager on it, but Tristan Luneau looking good. Ian Moore finally playing full-time defense instead of playing fourth-vine right-wing a full-season Tyson-Hines.

Like, I don't know. I'm more interested to watch it, I think, than Radical Goudis and Jacob Truba and the guys they were using last year. So there's that, and I'm not sure it matters for the purposes of this division. Like one of these teams

is a virtual lock to make the playoffs, just by virtue of three teams having to make it from the Pacific. And so, I don't know. If they went a bunch of game six-five, it might just not matter. who else is on that blue line so yeah it might not i i still want to see a lot of these young players take a bigger step they're missing troy terry for i think the first two months or so that's a

factor um i don't like the bottom six like at all um so i know there's there's a lot to be excited about, but I, as nice as like a bunch of those young guys looked in like baby minutes last year for the ducks, I would like to see what they can do. Like two of them are going to have to play on the second pair and that might be jarring and I'm not here to say Truva is any good because he is of a similar quality to most of these layers when you factor in usage but I think it's just going to end up being more of the same where their defense ends up being very leaky unless one of these guys really surprises. And obviously I'd like to see that because they're an exciting team.

I'm just highly skeptical right now. Yeah. I mean, all of you see any bullish case on them requires Carter-Gioche not only being back, but I think almost playing second-line center, I think. I would require to see that. but yeah, we'll see how this shakes out. The Golden Knights and the Oilers up top.

Golden Knights 103.5, the Oilers 104 and a half. I'd be wary. I think the Golden Knights team is good. They finished with 95 points last year, obviously, just pretty much got one point in every single game they played. And had the coaching bump after Tortorella came. They've got a first time coach now. I guess the reason why I'd be wary of them is just being unclear

on what the actual raw. is going to be in how many games some of these guys are going to play for them this season. So that's a bit of a scary proposition because the depth thins out pretty quickly. And we've seen they're capable of plugging in playing Braden Bowman or whoever you want to include from the Henderson Golden Knights and getting a month or two of production out of them because their core players are so good. And the infrastructure is there. But I could also see them not really caring that much about the regular season either.

And so getting into the hundreds, I think, is a bit scary for me. But if you're talking about some of those previous teams in the Pacific being mid-90s, like it's not, I guess, that far fetched either. Yeah, I think fragility is always an underrated aspect with Vegas because they have guys who seem to miss time every year, Stone, Theodore, Carlson, like clockwork. I went on a Vegas radio last year and I said one of the reasons to be a little more cautious about them is that factor where there's always someone missing games and yeah their depth has thinned out a lot compared to last year where i think at the start you can see like a very capable

top nine and you can plug and play and i don't know if that's there this year with a bunch of the guys i think declining and yeah i that being said this division is so bad that i don't think it matters they'll be okay and they have a new coach who they don't hate. So that might be helpful. Yeah. What do you think about the oilers? I want to four and a half. I feel like I could see on one hand, I don't think they care that much about the regular season. On the other, especially in this division, I could see them putting up a pretty crooked point total. You know, they're finally like confusing some younger legs into the lineup full time. And

tricidal and McDavid missed significant chunks last year. So if they get full seasons out of them, I feel like I'd be much more comfortable betting on the regular season point, total ceiling for them than the Golden Knights. The reason I'd be more comfortable with the Oilers regular season ceiling is they leadership groups, specifically McDavid saying we need to be better in the regular season. And him saying that I think will draw perhaps a bit more,

of a focus to that. And I am very intrigued to see what Babcock can do because his first year with the Leaps, like his impact was monumental. And obviously you're comparing him to Carlisle and Borecheck and whatever. But he definitely used to be a great coach. We'll see what he can do with a modern NHL team

and they still have a super elite core. it's just a matter of whether they can start on time because their octobers are notoriously always bad. That's enough on the Pacific Division. We did 20 minutes on it. We've got to keep them moving. Let's get into the Central. The Blackhawks, 79 and a half.

They finished with 72 last year. I believe that's the only two teams have a lower total. The Canucks and the Flames who we just talked about. They're tied with the Crackin at 79.5. But Dard will see how much time. he's going to miss. You know, you bring in Byram. They made a bunch of additions.

I think I've been talking about how imperative it is for them to show some sign of progress, particularly with their young players, their blue liners this year. Otherwise, like, we need to have a pretty serious conversation about Kyle Davidson at this point. So they're very incentivized to at least improve to some level of modesty. yet at the same time this division like even the Jets Predators and the Blues were next up above them it's tough for me to kind of put together

a compelling argument for why they belong in that year and so for yet another year we're at this point where despite some of the optimism surrounding this group like it's a pretty big gap between them and the rest of those teams yeah I oh I think the conversations around Davidson and the organization probably need to start now.

I think what they have done with the blue line and throwing a bunch of kids to the wolves is organizational malpractice. And the way they're solving that with a player who can be exciting offensively but has his own flaws defensively feels like a difficult bet and I don't know

I think there's obviously a lot of talent here they picked high they picked for skill there's a chance that a bunch of them blow up at the same time and maybe they have a season like San Jose did last year and Badard before he got injured last year was unbelievable and maybe he comes back from injury and looks similar

and maybe Frondell is great and maybe cancer Rob is unbelievable out of the gate and Nazar is good and Lepshanov learns how to defend. It's just so many maybes that I'm more inclined to give a hard no to what this team is currently looking like where it feels like one of the safer bets for a team to land at the bottom other division yeah i think where it gets really interesting is the market pretty much just put the jets predators and blues completely together at the exact same 85 and a half and are like take your pick i think the blues have the highest upside based on the top of the lineup um like the top line was so good

down the stretch oh yeah was snug guru thomas and holloway and you know holloway and thomas missed a bunch of time so make sense they came back and really turned it on if we get 55 to 60 games of Joel hofer based on how good he was last year I think that would be interesting so that's kind of why I frame it that way and I think they're just closer like I'm not sure what the predator's ambition is I guess the Jets will be trying to be good although we'll see Connor Hellibuck's actually in the team but I don't know how would you how would you kind of rate those three teams that are all together in one bundle So I think one of the underrated things might also be whether McTavish gets the Zegris out of Anaheim bump.

It feels like there's something in the water defensively in Anaheim and they go to a different team. They learn how to play real hockey. And I wonder how he looks in the blue system. I'm not sure, but I hope it's good. I still have the Jets ahead purely on the basis that Connor Halebuck is still on the team and he's a pretty good bet but i also really like their defense score i think over the last several years their third pair has always been a genuine gong show where you have logan stanley and some replacement level bum or third pair god or whatever

they're just not very good players and it's always been a leaky part of a team team and then you get into injuries in the top four and suddenly one of those guys is playing top four minutes and they can't handle it like it's uh it's always been a tough tough way to live for the jets and i think the rise of selmanson last year yep and their acquisition of ferraro like gives them one of the better one of the deeper one to six groups it's not amazing by any means but I think defensively, like, it's a good group that could keep things tight where they might win some close games because they have Hellebuck. As long as they have Hellebuck, that's the major key, obviously.

I do think another big X factor is if Fico Bjork makes the team, the idea that Colpherty will actually finally have another good player to play with again. Intrigues me after what we saw with him in Eilers. And, you know, that's a bit of a projection, certainly, especially for an undersized teenager. But it seems like they're going to at least give them a shot to do so. And so I think that's exciting. And, you know, it is fair to note. Like last year was such a disaster pretty much from the jump, right, where Lowry, Sanbrook,

were all out for a significant portion of the season. And they just never really got going. And I'm willing to believe that. Like, the blue line point is a good one. You know, if they do trade Hella Buck, it does seem like it'll at least be like, NHL roster players coming back. So it'll be a downgrader net, but it won't be a full selling move either.

So I'm willing to entertain that. The Predators are interesting to me just because I feel like their floor is pretty high. Like they added a lot of good NHL players, especially at forward. So there's quite a bit of depth there, assuming Ryan O'Reilly's still in this team for a significant portion of the season. And the goal tending is good with Saros.

and what we saw from Annan in last year. And so I feel like if I was ranking these teams, I would put them probably lowest ceiling, but a pretty high floor because I can't really see them being like genuinely bad either. Yeah, I think 85 points is absolutely perfect for the Predators. Well, they'll be there, but I don't know if they'll be good enough

because I'm skeptical about the top end. I don't know how much I love the direction of raising the floor of this team. I feel like they are swimming upstream and trying really hard to stay competitive. And I like some of the bets they made on Bork and Drury and Hoglander. But I just don't understand why this particular team would go in those directions. I think it was a pretty low level of commitment though, right? For the most part, both in terms of acquisition costs but also contracts. I know they went longer term on on B.

York and uh or sorry i'm bork and um drury but i think it's fine ultimately and they've got some young guys who could conceivably take steps like i'm curious to see you know they're there started using matty wood down the middle last year and so that'll be interesting to watch i guess the question coming out of this then is are you willing to buy that one of these three teams is going to be the fifth team out of the central to make the playoffs and we'll get a five three split in the west and one of them will get in or do you think that that group that we talked about with the sharks, ducks and kings,

would you favor a second one of those over these three? I would take five from the Central without question. I think the third Pacific team might get in there by accident and I think the Central will just be stronger. My lean is if Hellibuck is there, I'm going with the Jets.

If he's not, then Blues are the play for sure. Yeah. The mammoth are up next. six and a half. They finished with 92 last year. You're never going to believe this, but I'm smashing the over on that. And you will never believe this, but I think that's fair. Just as I said last year, and I think they ended up right around the ballpark. I said they would. And I think one of these years, you are going to be absolutely correct. But for now, I'm going to stay slightly cautious.

I think they're getting there. They're getting there for sure. I just need to see some bigger steps from Kuli and Gunther and have Surgachev looking like a bad number 1D again instead of a bad number 2 3D. Well, here's the bull case. I think it's very plausible that their special teams improves, which is clearly their biggest weakness last year.

They were 18th on both the powerplay and Penalico. They bring in Trojerk and Anders Lee. I think both those guys are going to help in their specific roles. Adding Sebastian COSA and, you know, it's a projection because we just haven't seen him at the NHL. But based on the pedigree and the tools, like, I think it's plausible that he could actually spell Vamalka more than they've been comfortable in the past couple years. Like Malka played 64 games last year, which was far and away most in the league. and that should not be the case. And so getting reasonable backup minutes from COSA

and then getting better efficiency out of Wemolka if he's not having to play that much, I think is in play. And then the young players improving on both ends, right? Like, Cooley played 17, 19 per game last year, which was outside the top 120 amongst forwards in the league. And I know he came back and wasn't 100% and they were kind of slow playing him. And we saw in the playoffs,

they finally started playing him 20 minutes a night. in that series against the Golden Knights. But if you just add a couple more minutes per game to him and Gunther and have a less even split, I guess, amongst their forwards, considering how good those guys are and are going to continue to improve. Like, I feel like the upside certainly warrants strong consideration beyond this 96.5. So that's my case for it. The team defense, I should say, is high enough.

And if they just get better on special teams, like I'm not sure if they're as soon as this year going to be getting into the territory of the top three teams in his division, but I feel like that's much more likely than kind of falling back into that previous year we just talked about. Yeah, I agree with all that. For me, it's always just to wait and see. I think Kuli can be an elite player. He just has to show it before I get there myself. I believe in him, even if he hasn't shown it yet.

and I think history is going to prove me right. You're going to be late to the game here. That's okay. Stars 101.5, wild 103.5, avs 108.5. How do you want to take these three? I guess would you put them together? Would you have the wild over the stars the way the market does? How are you sort of viewing these three?

I think there is fairly equal separation between the three teams. and I'm a bit surprised the Wild are above the stars. I think they have some very glitzy players, obviously. But I don't really love how the depth looks. I am super skeptical about the centers. And I think the Stars are still a fantastic team, even though the Wild did beat them last year in the playoffs, and that's all well and good.

But I think the stars still have the more complete roster. And the abs are number one because of everything they did last year. Yes. I mean, I think the wild, like, we'll still see what their roster looks like by the time the season starts and the games matter. But I think there's a lot of questions. And I love the Blake Coleman ad for them. I think they desperately needed them.

But there's still a lot of question marks, particularly like with how little offense they're going to get from, the bottom six. They did perform at a hundred and five point pace after Quinn Hughes arrived last year. You know, the stars finished with 112 and I get it. Like the vibes are bad right now. We'll see what happens with Jason Robertson and how this season goes for them. But I'm with you.

Like the strides we saw even from some of the depth guys last year who I think are interesting. But then getting Sagan back, hints being healthier, hopeful. like just like a regular season from Thomas Harley and not having a play from behind after being banged up early in the year. I think it'll be huge. We saw Niels Lundquist finally warrant our love for him last year. And ultimately like the power play is just so good. And the goal tending is good.

And in the regular season, I think it's fair to question the upside of the team for the season come the playoffs when they're competing against these other two teams. But for the regular season, like there's going to be, a bunch of games where they don't need to control possession or play particularly well. And they're going to score three power play goals and get a 9, 30, say, percentage from their goalie and just comfortably win. And there's going to be a lot of those nights.

So I feel like their floor is very high. And 101. And behind the wild at that, like, I probably would flip those two teams in the regular season. Yeah, I'm decently above one and one and a half. I would flip them without quite. I think the wild have two unbelievable forwards and the stars have four. And obviously there's levels to unbelievably, but I think having a big four versus a big two is certainly a big deal. And I don't know, if the wild get larkin, if that's still a thing, based on what the red wings are doing and whether the wild even have the pieces for it,

I might change my tune, but like as constructed, I am not as high on the wild as the market is right now. Yeah, I mean, listen, I think 103.5 is reasonable. I would just put the stars above that, I think. And then the abs, 108 and a half. They finished with 121 points last year. Yeah. They have such a massive home ice advantage. And their top players are so good.

I do wonder how they're going to approach this regular season with how they looked in that West final by the end with some of their guys kind of falling off and just the age of that group with guys like Audrey and Nelson and Landisog. Like it's important for them to get home ice, I guess, in the playoffs. But ultimately, it doesn't really matter how they do. They're going to be judged based on how the postseason goes. And so I'll be curious to see how they play it. But ultimately, like with Nathan McKinnon, it's, there's no off switch either, right? like I imagine they're going to be going full blast regardless. So yeah,

108 and a half seems reasonable to me. I would still probably pick them to be right up there as the number one team in the regular season. I guess them in the hurricanes just because of the infrastructure. But yeah, it'll be interesting to see if they can reclaim that number one spot or if one of these two other teams can actually push them and steal home ice in the playoffs.

Yeah, always possible. But for now, abs are the best in the West. I think that's it on the West. Do you want to get into the east? Yep. All right, let's do the Metro. I want to save the Atlantic for last. The Islanders, 86 and a half, the Rangers, 88 and a half, and the penguins, 88 and a half as well.

Mm-hmm. I'm lower on the aisles, I think. Well, they finished with 91 last year. Yep. Now, Seroquan was otherworldly. Schaefer was incredible, and he's entering year two. I guess I wanted to be higher on them. They just didn't do anything this summer.

Like they bring in, they lost their captain. They did. They bring in Matthias Micheli, which is, which is fine. But beyond, you know, some of the, the young guys improving, like, particularly a Cal Ritchie, for example. Um, I'm not sure. Like, it's a bit disappointing, right? And I get that they didn't have necessarily that much cap space, but they really just kind of sat out player transactions this offseason for the most part. And that is a bit disappointing.

So I don't know. I think it's probably fair to have them closely bunched with these teams, but on the lower end, I think, and the most likely team, I guess, in the Metro to finish at the bottom of the standings. Yeah, I definitely think they're the worst team in the Metro. I think the way Pittsburgh Leaps last year felt more real and more sustainable, where even though they're an older team in the aisles, I think the Isles are also a fairly old team.

I expect regression from age from both of them, but the faculty aisle's underlying process didn't look quite as strong is why I'd lean to pull them back a lot more than the penguins from last year in that case. And I just look at this forward group, and it just feels really, really bad at both ends of the ice. their deadline last year I understood the vision of the time because they were in the think of a playoff race

and I thought Shen could be better than he was but they paid a high price for that they re-signed Pajot which instead of trading him they traded for Pallot it was just a very odd deadline that felt a bit short-sighted for what this team should be and I think

when you see what Schaefer did in his first year everything they do has to be in service of making sure this is a team that can contend in his prime. And I don't think it'd be the worst thing in the world if this team did finish last in the Metro and got another top five pick to add to Schaefer and the rest of the prospect pipeline because the previous era is over and they still have some players that make the team competitive like Parselaal or Bat, Pelik, and Stroh. obviously, but they need more young building blocks to add to Schaefer. Now, I will say, you're one of Pete DeBur who got hired and played and what coached the

final four games of the season. I understand the playoff asterisk, but one hell of a regular season coach. And I think very well established. And so I think it'll be interesting to see what he does with his team because, you know, last year they totally reinvented themselves upon Schaefer's arrival and how immediately good he was. And they like became this up and down rush team that was really bad defensively, but was actually creating a fair number of scoring chances and was playing higher scoring games. And so I'm curious to see kind of what his approach is going to be with this group.

I don't want to discount the fact that Schaefer might just get that much better this season as well, especially like what we saw in season from him, right? where like as you were writing about at the time, he was producing and looking amazing for an 18 year old defenseman, but they're careful with his minutes. And then eventually they just put more on his plate and he looked like he could handle it perfectly well. And so if he's doing that full time this year,

I think that'll be interesting. The Rangers, I mean, they were very active this offseason by comparison, right? I think maybe recklessly so in terms of how many future firsts they traded. But it's tough to disagree with the fact that they got better, right? Like they, what, were they replaced Will Borgon on the Blue Line with adding Dersie and Marcus Pedersen.

They add Dorothea and Björs and up front. They subtract Trochik as well. You're going to get a full year of Gabe Perot, who I thought looked pretty good. Down the stretch, Adam Fox only played 55 games last year. And if they're going to get a full season of him and Gavikov on the top pair, that's going to make a big difference. And just start going to miss some time. I mean, he wound up playing 51 games.

and they were like a 500 team in those games. So it's not necessarily, I for whatever reason, like remembered him being out for longer than that. But yeah, I think it's right to put them. Like I could see a case where they finish ahead of the jackets and the flyers. But ultimately you look at his team,

it's like if J.T. Miller at this point in his career is going to be the second line center, I'm a little bit concerned about that, despite the names they added. So, yeah, I could see both sides of it with them. I think high 80s, low 90s is in the right ballpark for me. And they finished with 77 points last year. So that would be a pretty massive improvement.

Yeah, I really like what they did to the blue line. They needed an entire second pair, and they got one. And they, I like that there's an emphasis on offense with Jersey and defense with Pedersen. And I think that'll add some balance to the top four. and getting a full year of Fox, and just iran, and I think Laugh-Raneer was unbelievable. Aadapunero's trade as well.

So I am, I wouldn't say bullish, because I'm right in line with the market, but I think the Rangers are going to be a much better team than last year for sure based on all the first they traded to make that happen. Yeah. You know, the Penguins finished with 98 points last year.

The market is baking in a lot of regression at 80. And a half. Yeah. I think it's fair. They shot the lights out. They got career years out of a lot of players. There's a bunch of new faces. Now, I will say they had, what, 16 losses in overtimes and shootouts and had the league

worst point percentage in one goal games. So it could have reasonably been better for them. And there was stretches, especially early in the year. Like they had a couple cartoonishly bad losses, right? Like, there was that Sharks game where they just gave up so many goals at the end. and wasted valuable points. And so I'm probably on the higher end of this, I think,

acknowledging there's risk because they have a bunch of older players. So it's possible they miss time as well. And this thing goes off the rails a little bit. But I do think highly of up for another podcast now, Dan Mews. And I'm curious to see what year or two looks like there. And, you know, they've got some guys like the Billy Coivinen contract.

He's going to get an opportunity this season. Benkin? Will he? Because their forward group is so deep that I think one of the complaints when that contract happened, I think when you, at face value, like the risk felt large given what he's shown today, but then you find out like the buyout rules and you're like, yeah, that makes perfect sense. Yeah, it's really like a two year tryout.

Yeah. But like they have like 12 or 13 guys that you might put ahead of him. So their, their four group is so deep that he's still going to have to earn a spot. and I'm not sure where he fits, but I mean, hey, that's a good problem to have. Defense,

I think is a different story. Yeah. Yeah, I think the forward group, especially with how diligent they were about, like, using that fourth line, exclusively in the defensive zone

and freeing up guys like Chinikov to cook offensively, I think is going to help. A concern would certainly be like, Parker Watherspoon was really good for them last year. And I get why they made them. move that they did. But I do think he played a pretty big role in what a remarkable season Eric Carlson had particularly after the Olympics. And we'll see what that looks like because

if that pair is not happening the way they were, if you're getting into another season of Sam Gerard, Chris LaTang, that's pretty alarming. And so we'll see what that ultimately nets out to for them. But yeah, I'm higher on them. But I think they're going to be pretty efficient again offensively might not shoot the percentage they did as a team last year but i think they're going to be on the higher end and we'll see what happens with the goal tending as well um but yeah i'm i guess i'm i guess i'm more bullish on them than this 80 and a half was just because i think everyone's just expecting that last year was a complete one-off and they're going to come back to earth and there's a pretty big gap there between you know that that still could happen and they could smash past

this total as well yeah i'm a smidgen higher than 88 and a half uh just a bit My biggest question mark, I think, is the goaltending. It feels unproven-ish. Well, I guess there's also the point of, I get why they didn't make any of these moves last year because of the spot they were in. But, like, it's conceivable. I think Kyle Dubas is certainly going to entertain

if the right offer comes to move a Raquel, for example. It doesn't seem like they're going to move Brian Russ, but moving some of these guys while they're still playing at a high level and recouping value, and that's probably going to hurt their cause this year. So it's conceivable that they get worse in season and that being by design and probably the right move long term for them. The blue jackets, it's 92 and a half. They finished with 92 last year.

You mentioned the fragility earlier with the Golden Knights for different reasons here, but I think this is a very fragile number. Just because of the uncertainty that I still have a month out from the season, like, Wrenski is going to be there to start the year. But I don't know. We haven't heard anything about Murchenko for a while. now and he's incredibly important for them. They've gone better. Like the Valmatruchin's going to be a great fit for them. They're going to get a full season of Connor Garland here.

The young players guys like Kent Johnson will probably bounce back. I like what I saw from Denton Matechuk last year. So I think there's room for improvement and in that as well with Jack Reeves. But it does also feel like a precarious spot because I'm just alarmed, I guess, by everything involving Don Waddell and Rick Bonas. and I feel like the worst case scenario seems more attainable here for me for this group than them kind of putting it all together and having a dream season. I'm going to stay optimistic.

Despite the vibes feeling kind of rancid right now, and that can obviously derail things. I think winning fixes a lot of things. And if Marchenko is still on the roster to start the season and he lays it out, I again assuming fantilly signs in time of the season as well I think we could see a big jump from him I like him a lot more than I think the typical analytics person does because I think the talent is there and he ends up like shifely esk and just being a bit more of an empty calorie score I think there's still value there

and then you have a norris winner wrenski I think greaves is probably one of the best goalies in the league. Matechuk is, was unreal last year. And you have a great top four with Severson and Provarov was underrated last year as well. So there's a lot of pieces here. I think their forward group is deep. They just need some of these forwards

to turn into legit stars. And I think if you get a big season from fans, Le Marchenko and Werensky keeps cooking and Greaves keeps cooking, that this team could like get, like they could create vibes just from winning. It's the same, it's a similar scenario. Mario to Buffalo last year where I think there's a lot of noise about people wanting out and being tired of losing and all that stuff. But then they start winning and now the vibes are immaculate. I'm not saying the same thing is going to have the Columbus where they win the division go the second round. But I think there is a lot of potential here if they can string together a good run. there undoubtedly is and i'm excited to watch them i guess my pushback is like you know they had that

inspired run upon the coaching change and everyone was talking about how the vibes were good and rick bone is coming in and changing the culture and all that and then the reason they missed the playoffs partly you know damon seaberson got hurt and he had been playing so well and i think that really hurt their cause but under bonus like they totally changed their offense like they became this kind of like grinded out ground and pound down low team and had some success early on but just totally removed any rush element for a lot of these young players and then in the final couple weeks of the season they just could not score a goal to save their lives and it was like the meme of brick bonus looking around like I'm looking for the guy who did this and it's like well you did this and

if they're going to do that again like it might lead to short-term games again where they aren't giving up a lot and they're grinding out one goal wins, but it also feel precarious where I can see it definitely going wrong, right? Like we're not that far removed from him just calling out the team and everyone being like, wow, I love Rick Bonas. He just says it like it is. And it's like, I don't know if that was the right move either. So we will see the Flyers up next, 93.5. And then the Devils, 96 and a half. Now, the Flyers post-Olympics were arguably the best defensive team in the league. And we saw that carry into that series against the penguins.

We're going to get a full year out of port on our tone. Obviously, they tried to swing big up front with Leo Carlson and fell short. But yeah, I feel like the floor for this team is really high because of that defense, right? And Sam Meerson was once again really bad last year. And I know Joseph Wohl comes with his own questions in terms of health and availability, but assuming he's able to competently back up. Dan Vladar, I think that'll help quite a bit as well, particularly with how little they give up.

And so I could see them once again being incredibly annoying to play against. And if they're able to get another year like that from Zegris and Martone basically just translates what he did in those whatever eight regular season games and then the playoff run into 82 games and helps their power play, which was so bad for a lot of the year, I could definitely once again see them being like the third or fourth best team in this division and a playoff team once again. Yeah, I think 93 and a half is pretty perfect at the moment.

And I think the floor is high because they're so strong defensively. I love Wall a lot. And I would not be surprised to be challenges Lidar for a lot of starts this year. And it ends up being a more even split. But he's got to stay healthy and whatnot. If Martone becomes a star, if Mishkov gets out of the doghouse and becomes a star as well, as Flyers forward group like kind of looks nasty and perhaps a little Keynes-esque where the depth is a huge feature and maybe they don't have like these tier one to superstars but if they have guys who are like

legit good and Martan Mishkov enter that echelon, that is going to be a big strength for them and you can see just from the forward group why they would go after Carlson because he would have truly been the missing piece and make this a very competitive team but they have to get really good real fast for the ceiling to be

as high as they as it needs to be yeah I like I like the even the depth for us right like Barkey and Alex Bump like I think they're going to get valuable minutes out of all those guys and it could be to your point like death by a thousand cuts or whatever

from that group the devil's 96 and a half i i'm pretty transparent but i don't know what to do with them like i could see the 100 plus point case for them if you get actually a full season for once out of jack hughes i'm not that worried about the the goaltending despite it being a question mark in terms of just like being unproven we've seen so little out of nico dawes um i've liked the offseason they've had right like they've added a bunch of guys who are good offensive players and that was such a massive problem for them last year where when jack use in Justper Brat and I guess

Orsani Gritsick weren't on the ice, they just could not generate a goal to save their lives. And so if they get a baseline level of competence from that and their top players stay healthy, they probably should be the third best team in the Metro. They probably should. But the last three years, they've been a huge disappointment. I think I've had them project for 100 points or so each of three years. and they've been well below that each time. So I am actually lower than the market right now.

And it's definitely a wait and see thing. The one thing that scares me is that halfway through last season, the Devils realized they're not the Florida Panthers. And they started playing Devils hockey again. And Hughes was particularly unbelievable after the Olympics and looked like the peak version that we all think he can be. So if he's playing like that, the devils are playing a style that fits their roster better,

I think that can go a long way. But I'm really worried about this defense group as a whole. I think they really need Luke Hughes to be the guy this year. And if he can get there, I think they'll be fine. As a whole, it's just very bland and uninspiring, though. So after their busy offseason, the capitals have jumped up to 102.5. they finished with 95 last year um you know the power play was so bad last season i think they finished 25th the 515 was not an

issue they were 6th in goal share and you know should have based on that been better than they wound up finishing as a team so i think it's fair to position them as the second best team in the metro um yeah right like the despite whatever because you have about you know tux age and contract like he's adding him and Cairo to this team that was pretty poor off the rush last year is interesting. I think highly of Spencer Carberry as a coach. You're getting minutes now from Cole Hudson, for Amelia Prodis. I think it's reasonable to expect that some of the other young players like Ryan Leonard are going to improve this season. And they only had Pierluge de Bois for sole a few games last year.

And I think he matters a lot to this team. And so if you get him back and he's playing. a full season, everything kind of fits into place. And if the power play can improve just a little bit, like, I'm not, I wouldn't put them pushing the hurricanes for first in the metro, but I feel like it's fair to have them second and then a bit of a gap between all these other teams. Yeah, I am really high on the Capitals this year. And that is a horrible thing to hear if you're a Capitals fan, because we have a long

running rivalry, my model and the Capitals, where if I think the Capitals are going to be good, they end up not so good and if I think they're bad they end up really good last year I thought they'd get 95 points though and they got 95 points so we might be on the right track finally I kind of hope they go far because they

might have one of the worst collections of high-end talent for an elite team I think I've ever seen like their best player is Tom Wilson and I think Tom Wilson is great he is probably one of the worst best players in the east and I think the capitals are probably a top three team in the east

or top four so it speaks to the immense depth they've amassed and I think Kyru and Tuck being added just slides everyone down really well in the forward group where they're going to have the best second, third, and fourth line in the league and maybe one of the worst top lines and that's okay if they sort of do something around Dubois and protest as like a defensive powerhouse unit and everything works out great. But it's just such an interesting way to build where I think it fits specifically well

in the Metro Division where I think Carolina's top end talent is a lot better with Aho and Charvis and Slavin obviously. But it's a similar vibe where depth matters a ton for Carolina. It's going to matter a lot for the capitals. And obviously the X factor is Logan Thompson is unreal. Yeah, I think the play is going to be playing that just like all unit line of Alexi Proto's Dubois and Tom Wilson together and having that be their matchup line. And then, you know, maybe using Sordiff and Leonard to be kind of like a transition line and then just freeing up the other two to get better offensive results than maybe they're capable of otherwise because of the usage. Yeah.

And so it'll be interesting. But yeah, the depth is immense here. And the goaltending is really good. So I think their floor is incredibly high. the hurricanes are first at 109.5 and I don't have a lot of notes on this. Just a complete buzzsaw. Like even with set jarvis missing the start of the season, they're just going to,

they're going to keep humming along and rattling off points. I can't think of a team like more immune to a Stanley Cup hangover than this current team because of their system. Like it's just so impossible for me to envision any slippage in terms of effort or like all the stuff they do that's so successful in the regular season. and so might be the team I'd be most comfortable with

picking to finish first and points just because I feel like their range of outcomes is so much lower than some of the other teams. I'm going to push back on that a little bit just because their system specifically is so aggressive

and high octane and takes so much effort that I am curious how a very short alcohol-filled off-season will do for them. Like I'm not doubting them but we've seen them run out of gas a bit in the playoffs in prior years.

And I think one of the strengths of this year's playoffs is they disposed of the team so quickly that they had so much time off and they were at full gear in every series. So I'm not saying they're going to slip to second or third. I think they're going to win their division comfortably and it'll be fine. but I'm just intrigued by what a short offseason can do for a team that plays the way they do. I think that's fair. As someone who's 35 now and washed and struggles with hangovers, I certainly would not want to have to play Rod Rindermore hockey after that much drinking.

I think what helps them is how evenly to distribute the minutes though, right? Like if this is a team that was like leaning on their top guys, to a really high level. I'd be like, oh, man, I wouldn't necessarily want to be doing that again. But everyone is just kind of playing apart, and they're just rolling their lines and pairs pretty evenly. And so I think that gives you quite a bit of margin for. I guess the ask is maybe lesser than it would be otherwise.

And then, you know, if it creates an opportunity to just like feature Blake and Stanko, even more offensively, I think that's interesting. And I'd like to see that. So, yeah, we'll see what happens with the key. and kind of how they fill out that third pair, but I feel pretty confident about them being relatively unfazed. All right, the Atlantic Division. Best Division in hockey?

Yeah, this is stupid. I hate it. It's terrible. The worst team of the division is absolutely capable of making the playoffs. Well, the first team in the division had 100 points last year. So, or I guess, I mean, the Bruins and the Red Wings are both 86 and a half. So that's why I said that. But I guess, especially if there's a lark in trade,

you would put the Red Wings as the worst, and they finished with 92 last year. Yeah. Are you surprised that the Bruins are listed that low? I get that, you know, their P.D.O. was off the charts last year, and they probably weren't as good as they showed. But I think it's reasonable to suggest that they got better from a talent perspective in adding Petrca.

I guess they lose Arbidson, who was really good for them on a permanent basis. But good coach. stars at every position. I feel like 86 and the half is on the lower end unless the argument is just like this division is so good that if you're going to have six teams that are six of the best like eight teams

in the conference or whatever there's only so many points to go around. Yeah, I am around there. I think I'm a little lower on McAvoy than the general sentiment is right now I think his play driving has

slipped just a bit. I don't know how much that has to do with carrying around random guys that I've never heard of for the full season for like his entire career, but it feels like there's been some slippage there. And then after Pasternak,

I think it gets pretty thin, pretty quickly. I would love to see Giki do what he did last year again. I'd love to see Peturca take a big step with a role of presumably on the power play this year and figure things out. and they have Hagen's probably playing a full season

and maybe he's super exciting off the bat and interesting but the Ford group just after pasta is just very uninspiring compare the rest of the Atlantic but just to get a sense of the division issues and I'm going to spoil some season preview content here for a second I have the Bruins like, rating ahead of the sharks, but the sharks have higher projected point total, just by a little bit.

Right. So I have the sharks half a point above just based on division strength. And then the Bruins at 25% chance to link the playoffs, the sharks at 43. And they're like half a point difference. So that is what I think the bruns are dealing with and it's just a very unfortunate byproduct of the Atlantic. Yeah, I think that's fair. Any Red Wings notes?

I think Brady Solvix-Pine is worried. Yeah, I just feel bad for the fans. Yeah. Mo Sider was so good last year. Unbelievably good. Yeah. Senators, 95 and a half. They finished with 99 last year.

If it was a different division, I would actually plant my flag here as kind of zagging on the sentiment that losing Brady Kachuk and replace. seeing him with William Eklund is this disastrous outcome for them. It's pretty good. All things considered. Yeah. I think so too.

I think I don't, listen, this is like a one of the more or less like analytical takes I'll ever give on the show. But the vibes were so bad around Brady Kachuk last year. Like I'm willing to buy the argument that everyone is just going to have more fun this season because they don't have to deal with that. Like it's a mess. Like I yeah your captain's just going on his podcast and like Not backing your team up like that must suck And so

The defense is so good if the Yep They had such bad goaltending for a significant portion of the season that if it's just Something closer league average Hey who did they add this summer? Yeah Well Yeah

But Allmark is going to have a better season I think And so I think so yeah that'll help quite a bit. We'll see still. They have a couple of questions in terms of Batherson's future with his contract and Zubb. They have some stuff to figure out, not necessarily impacting this season.

But yeah, I'm, I mean, Sanderson and Stutzler are so good. And the defense as well, like down the stretch, right? Like they had so many absences there. And we're kind of patching it together and Spence stepped up. And so if it was a different division, I'd be like smashing the over here. I just think it's a testament to what we've been saying about the Atlantic that it's, it feels less,

I feel less confident in that. But if they're fourth in this division, I would not be surprised at all. I mean, they have the senators, the Leafs and the Sabres all at 95 and a half. Now, I'll let you cook on the Leafs in a second here.

But I just don't see the case here for the Sabres being at 95.5. They finished with 109 last year. I know their underlying numbers weren't as good as their results were once they turned their season around in December. But despite losing Tuck and Byram, and both guys were valuable for them last year, I feel like this is just overlooking the fact that their young players are probably going to get better at very consequential positions in the lineup. and they're adding a full season of Hellenus, hopefully it comes back. Like, I think patching together the stuff they're missing is very in play. And I wouldn't necessarily expect them to be better than they were last year. Like it was such a dream final 50, 60 games, whatever.

But 95 and a half seems low to me, unless you just want to say that it's purely a byproduct of the division they're in. But I feel like their upside is just much higher than that. And maybe I'm two sabers pill. But that's just how I feel. I ought to stay true to my heart. The upside is absolutely there. I have the Sends at 96-ish, and I have them at the top of that trio. So it sends, Sabers, Leaps.

I think the Sends and Sabres have a similar issue, where I am a little skeptical about their ceiling at the moment until some of the young guys like take this massive step to become the guy. Like if I look at the forward groups relative to like slots across the league, Tage is a great player. I don't know if he's a great first forward. And maybe Benson takes a huge step. I know he's the 124th best under 23 player.

Yeah, maybe he can become the 123rd best player this season. Maybe. Maybe. I have high hopes for him, but if he's your second best forward or third best forward, I think there's a lot of room for error up top where I think the Sabres should have a pretty decent floor and be competitive in the Atlanta again and be right there. But the high in talent, I, like especially up front, I am skeptical about. If Oslin and Helena come in and just just to,

deliver off the bat. If Gullick is playing hockey and being good, that'd be great. If Benson takes a step, if power starts looking at like a real number two defenseman, that's all fantastic. But I think there's still some ifs on this team that

you can see the upside. There's just still a bit to prove even after last season. The one thing about last season, and I see why they'd be pushed back a lot, is that they got some unbelievable goaltending from two guys I'm not expecting unbelievable goaltending from like I would think UPL and Lyon are relatively average now

after what they did last year but what they did last year was be I think like a top five tandem did you have you input what replacing UPL's minutes with Hela Buck would do to your model Oh yeah, that'd be sick. I'd love that. So if that's happening, I can see a spike for the Sabres and a drop for the Jets. But it is interesting that the Jets are being priced

as if they don't have Hella Buck and no one's really being priced as if they do have Hellebuck. He's just in limbo. He's not on a team next season. He's just not on a team next season. Yeah. And with the Sends, yeah. Like I love I like stools a lot

I just I don't think he's the guy Yet I think he can get there next year I just don't see it with him just yet And it helps to have Dahlian Sanderson for both teams obviously And that's the big engine driving force I just like to see a forward Get to

I think the franchise level where they're a No doubt top 30 player in the league Yeah I just don't think the Sabres are going to take as big of a step back as it seems based on the name brand value they lost like i think they can cobble together those minutes and yeah yeah i think probably have more upside because of uh how young their players are um so yeah we'll we'll we'll see on that um the leaps are also in that group now they address their biggest weakness right like a lot of the attention is going to go to gabvin mckenna and i'm excited to watch it

and i think theoretically he's going to add a lot of to what Austin Matthews was missing last year after Mitch Marner left, but the defense was so catastrophically bad. And they gave up at a certain point in the season, but they were bottom three in like every metric across the board. And they invested their entire offseason into remodeling the bottom six with guys who are exclusively defensive players. And they bring in finally a couple guys who could actually string together a couple

passes on the blue line to hopefully get out of their zone more often with Radish and Emil Andre and so I see the case for improvement especially if you're going to get a healthy season of Allison Matthews scoring 50 plus goals which I guess might be a bit of a question mark at this point but

yeah they finished with 78 points last year so the market is expecting a pretty massive leap and I think they belong in this tier but I probably would have them third like I would probably have Buffalo first and then Ottawa

and Toronto right there. I think Ottawa's floor is much higher because of the team defense. And Toronto might have a bit of a higher ceiling if everything kind of clicks together, but also probably a range of worse outcomes as well, if that makes sense. Yeah, I think the variability of beliefs is the big thing where I think they probably, you can make a case they have a higher ceiling than both those teams if everything clicks, but they probably have a lower floor as well because of the age of some of the defense. what they showed last season, some guys in decline.

But I am pretty excited about this season. I'm lower than the market by a smidge, but I am so confident that this team was ruined by the coach. And I'm not after, like, I plug in some stuff for coach effects. And I wasn't thrilled with Hiller being hired at the time. but like once I saw what the model showed, I became cautiously optimistic.

At the very least, he is not Craig Ruby. And that is a massive upgrade. And it seems like they have a plan to not bury Matthews in the defensive zone and have an actual job for the fourth line of top six. And they definitely overspent for Sissons and Duhayn and Roslavik or whatever. and radish is a huge risk, but it's a risk they kind of like had to take based on where their defense was.

And I'm a little more optimist about Roddish that because of the like micro stats, the five on five stuff, I think he can cook with the top end of this team. And Andre's an underrated addition over Simon Benoit, who was probably on the worst defense in league last year. There's just a lot of ways,

this can go well, but it probably all hinges on Bobrovsky not being a complete lemon. And that is pretty terrifying. Yeah. I feel like ultimately everything just hinges on what version of Matthews you're going to get, right? Yeah. Like, it makes a lot more sense than the pieces come together. I wouldn't expect a nice amount of goals from him again. But if it's closer to that, then the 33 and 27 he had in his shortened seasons the past two years,

then I'm willing to buy it. Otherwise, it could definitely go south. The HABs, 98 and a half. They finished with 106 last year. I get the regression case. I did want to note that they have one of the more favorable schedules in the league. Obviously, they have to play all these teams, so that hurts. But a ton of games where they're arrested at playing against tire teams and very few of the inverse.

So that'll help. It's a bit of a projection on their young players continue to get better. I guess it's a TBD though, right? because they didn't really make any big moves yet. I know they've been linked to Marchankle. They're kind of keeping their powder dry, waiting for either Michael Hage to arrive at the end of season or for an acquisition that's going to play with Demidov full time.

And if that happens, I imagine both of us would be significantly higher on it. But, yeah, 90 and a half probably seems right, even if it's a bit of a step back for a team that made it to the East Final last year. Yeah, I'm hoping most people, and I'm guessing everyone listening to this podcast, in particular understands that raising the true talent level is the most important thing here, whether or not it means a step back from last year's point total.

I think last year hinged on a lot of players having career years, and as greatest as Zupin Caulfield was, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to do that again. But before last year, I think the baseline was a 92-point team. So if they're raising that to 98, 99, 100, like they're banging on the door of being a true contender. And I think they showed that they can be advancing to the third round. They really just have to figure out that second layer after their big four forwards.

And maybe waiting for Hage is enough. Maybe they're keeping their powder dry for next offseason or the very big offseason in after that where they'll have a million, a billion dollars in cap space. But I like what they're doing and I'm more than okay with them being patient because I think as they are right now, they are right there just outside the contenders circle. Yeah, I think what will help their point total is they wasted a lot of games

playing Sam Montemboe early last year. And if Jacob Fowler lives up to the hype and forms of tandem with Dobish, that'll definitely help squeeze out a few extra points as they compete for the top three seat here. The two Florida teams, Lightning 104.5, the Panthers, 1, 108 and a half. 1, 108 and a half. I would flip those, I think.

Just baking in the uncertainty with the Panthers, I get the upside case. And if they're fully healthy, I think they're probably the best team in the league. But we've already seen, like, Marshan had the surgery. We'll see on his availability. They have a bunch of older players

who have played a ton of hockey. And having Barkoff back is going to alleviate a lot of that. And I think they're going to be very motivated to show that last year was a one-off. But 108 and a half does seem steep if you're just unsure, like, how many of those guys are actually going to play anywhere close to 80 games next season. With the Panthers, like, we talk about Vegas and their fragility. And after last year, I think you have to put the Panthers in a similar-ish bucket where

you have to expect some of these guys are going to miss some time, especially with the relative of everyone involved. And it's hard not to like the team, especially the forward group. I am not as high on the defense, and I think the goaltending is still, I'm still a little skeptical about them. Obviously a great team, but when you see past regular seasons from the Panthers, you know it's not their goal. And I think 108 and a half is just very, very high for a team that is built more for

the playoffs than for the regular season to begin with. Yeah, I think that's fair. The reason why, I mean, there's that. And then for the lightning, they're just such a similar to what I said about the hurricane, such a regular season bus saw, right? Like, they're just so good at everything. I think they got better this offseason. It's an older group, undoubtedly, but so few weaknesses on the depth chart right now.

And so I know that the past, however many post seasons have been disappointing for them in losing in round one, but for the purposes of the regular season. I just feel like they're undeniably going to be a team that's in this 105 point range. They finished with 106 last year. They're one four and a half here. And so that strikes me as right. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're the first team in the Atlantic heading into the playoffs. Yeah, that's where I have them. That's no surprise to anyone who paid attention to me being stupidly high on the lightning last year. I think an underrated aspect is getting Dennis Hildeby, a competent enough backup to alleviate some of the pressure from Vasilepsy playing

almost every game and being an automatic loss whenever Vaselowski wasn't playing, where I think they could be a better ready of season team because of that and they should be fresher for the playoffs, at least in that as well. Yep. All right, buddy. Well, we're going to get out of here. It was great to catch up. And it was a fun exercise.

I'll let you promote some stuff because I know a lot of what we talked about here today. you'll be writing about at the athletic in the lead-up to the regular season. So I'll let you plug that a little bit here. Yeah, I'm going to have my own best bets article looking at the point totals and division odds and all that coming up over the next two weeks. Last year, nailed Buffalo randomly said, hey, Buffalo Division, why not? And it worked out. So I don't know if the same thing will have this year, but we can only pray.

and then after that player tiers ranking the top 150 players contention cycle with Scott Wheeler where we combine the player tiers and the prospect tiers to like sort of map out where each team is in their window right now and then after that the usual 32 season previews one for each team lots of words lots of depth very exciting times up ahead and doing a lot of prep work right now to get that started all right I'd hopefully enjoy that journey through the league and they'll look ahead to the upcoming regular season that's rapidly approaching now with Dom. We recorded this one a couple weeks ago. I wanted to include it on this feed as well and not just the Patreon because I think it's a really good preview. It was a fun episode that we did.

And so I'm making it available for everyone. There's going to be a lot of shows we do this year that won't be on this feed, though. They're going to be Patreon exclusive. And so if you want to make sure you get access to all that and you can listen to everything that we put out, please subscribe to the PDOCast Patreon. the season's starting in a couple weeks now. It's a great time to do so. We're going to be posting all the shows we do on that feed as soon as they're done.

So you're going to get them in a timely fashion. They're all going to be available in ad-free form. If you enjoy listening to the show, I think it's going to be worth it. And you're going to enjoy it. And we've got a lot of fun content coming for you. There's a lot of stuff that we've done even this week that's going to be available up on that feed now for our subscribers. We had Sean Shapiro, and we looked at some of the,

I guess unresolved transactions around the league trade requests RFAs that haven't been signed roster crunches to look ahead to as trading caps open up so we did that we had Kyle Raftesaw continuing our summer series a really fun interview with him as the the GM of the sue greyhounds in the oh hl we got harmon coming on to do a little bit of a Pacific division preview asked some of our big questions for each team in that division and we're going to keep it going as we get closer and closer to the season and the lead-up to it, a couple new shows on there each week. You can also get extra content for free on YouTube from us this year.

We're posting full episodes there regularly, so check them out. And while you're there, please make sure to subscribe, like, comment. We're going to try to grow that channel this season and put more and more content on there. So please join us there. Your support is greatly appreciated. That is all for today from us. We'll be back here on Monday with more. Thank you for subscribing and for listening to the HockeyPedio cast.