The Hockey PDOcast - Projecting Major Junior play to the NHL level

Episode Date: February 13, 2023

Mitch Brown from EPRinkside joins Dimitri to answer your questions about the draft, scouting, prospects, and development. This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name is Dimitra Filippovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Mitch Brown. Mitch, what's going on in? I am so excited to be back. It feels great. Yeah, there we go. Well, you already got the first PDA guest under your belt, so it was a great one.

So a high standard you set for yourself. People really enjoy it. I got a ton of great feedback on it. But hopefully we're going to be able to have some even more fun this time. We decided to get some mailback questions from the listeners about prospects, scouting, development, all that good stuff. And I think we got plenty of rich material here to work with. So let's try to have some fun with it.

So let's let's start it off with with this one here from Sam. Sam asked how much is skating valued compared to skill, whether it be hands, playmaking, shot, et cetera. And what would you prefer a prospect to have? Now, of course, I think we'd prefer that, you know, have a well-rounded prospect that can do everything. But let's just say in this kind of scenario where it's like one elite skill or tool that a prospect has that you see on tape from them

and then kind of what do you find yourself gravitating towards or what do you think provides more runaway for growth and improvement or even functionality? Out of tools, skating provides the most room for growth by a huge margin. Skating controls everything. If your depth is consistent, you have consistent lower body flexion, your edges are more developed, it's easier to handle the puck, it's easier to shoot, it's easier to pass, it's easier to protect the puck, it's easier to hit people, it's easier to defend, it's easier to do everything the better your technical basis.

is. So it's skating for sure, but it's also interesting to note that a lot of times when it comes to skating development in particular, there are some areas the players are extremely good at and other areas the players aren't. So for me, when I look at it, the first two things are lower body flexion? So like, can they push their knees past their toes? Are their hips involved? And then outside edges. Instead of lean on their inside edges all the time, can they turn around that turning leg that is led by their foot coming in front of their body, called a punch turn, around that outside edge, how tighter their turns, because how much more you can get on that outside edge determines how quickly you'll be able to turn, how do they cut inside,

and so on. And so having that outside edge, having that lower body flexion are really the two big skating things that I've looked for more so than like stride mechanics or upper body movement. Those things are easier to fix later. So I guess a good follow up to that is then how do we feel about a player's ability to take massive strides in terms of skating. I remember last time I had you on, we did the draft retrospectives when I talked a bit about Jason Robertson and how, you know, there might have been signs at the major junior level that while he was never going to be a plus skater, similar to what you just referenced there, he had access to certain skating traits that would allow him to at least get it to a functional level where he could get to spots on

the ice that he needed to get to be effective. We've seen some success stories over, you know, the past however many years of prospects that might have been, our projections for them might have been, oh, they're going to be limited to NHL level because they're not necessarily a plus skater. And then they come in, they start working with, you know, better skating coaches. They have better resources available to them at the pro level on a day-to-day basis. And all of a sudden, they're able to just unlock that certain area of their game and get much better of it. Do you feel like if you were working with a team and you were kind of deliberating between

a prospect and kind of looking at their tape and being like, all right, this is concerning. but I feel like there's enough in there where if we bring them in and we can get more out of it, or do you think it's kind of chasing your tail a little bit or a bit foolish to think that you can turn a skater who has a clear weakness into one that can actually use it as a plus at the edge level? So I think it's skill set dependent. So there are certain attributes that you're looking for in, say, below average projection-wise skaters.

So you're looking for the ability to get open more than you would for a superior skater, the ability to time their plays effectively, so knowing when to cut behind the defense, rush the slot, when to cut in front of the defense, knowing how to escape off the board, and then also having superior puck skills will help offset skating to a certain degree. And I think Robertson is a great example of this, right?

Because he has one thing that I think is so important that we don't talk about enough, and that is just being a bull along the boards. Like Jason Robertson doesn't do the whole cycle endlessly thing. He gets the puck, he takes it to the middle. he doesn't overcomplicate trying to create the perfect opportunity he knows that in a race against NHL players he's not going to win it most of the time so he just takes any advantage any little opening that he has

and you know he just goes in there that's what he does takes the puck off the boards gets to the middle then goes from there and being able to do that is such an important or integral skill to say offsetting skating as a disadvantage in the NHL. Yeah, I will say that there's a, I think there's a distinction to be made between like skating ability and then actually being able to leverage it into like, yeah, functional usage over the course of a hockey game, right? I think like when I first started doing this and I don't know how to prospect evaluator, but like I'd watch young players play at the NHL level and I'd get mesmerized by like just pure skating ability in terms of like 0.8

to point B, watch how fast this guy can get up the ice and I'd be like, wow, like with this type but game-breaking speed, anything is possible. And then you watch more reps of that player and you realize, all right, that's kind of only the only gear they have. And while it can certainly be effective in doses, ultimately, unless you're able to sort of change speeds, unless you're able to

pick your spots and be able to use it in ways to actually get open or get the areas on the ice, there are very few instances over the course of an, especially an NHL game, which is very structured, even though there are more rush opportunities these days, where you can just straight up go from your end of the ice,

to the other end of that is at top speed, right? Like the number of times you could actually do that in a fast break setting, so to speak, is very limited. So I remember you watch like an Andreas Athanasia or you watch a Kaspari Kappan, and I remember in their early days it'd be like, wow, I'm all in on these players because they could do anything out there. And then you watch them and you're like, actually, what they can do is pretty limited in that regard.

Yeah, absolutely. The change of pace game is so, so, so important being able to delay at the right moments, just enough to kind of bait the poke check and then turn on the jets. all, you know, players can be high-end skaters, but their functional speed can be quite low. They can be lower than a player who is a below-average skater in terms of just raw output. So that is the most important thing. Functional skating ability, functional speed. I love it.

Okay, well, that's a good segue to question number two here from Luke, who asks, What are three key things you see in junior players that translate well to the pros? Oh, this is a really, this is a really, good one. All right, so the first one, probably something like lateral transition passing and puck carrying. That means skating towards pressure, not skating away from it, drawing the pressure, then passing through it to an open teammate or setting up a one-on-one move inside crossovers. You know, it's space creation 101. You're trying to bring an opposing player towards you to create to create more space for where the puck eventually goes. I included a little bit on this in my

Logan Stan Covem video on the Elite Prospects YouTube. Check that out. The average NHL team crosses the dot lane outside to inside, inside to outside, cross-ice, whatever, so just lateral movement on something like 25% of their entries or exits. That's literally just in the action that gets the puck across either blue line. In junior, it's half of that. And at both levels, cross-le-league plays resulted in more scoring chances. So at the junior level, players can just skate in straight line. If it's not that the defense is off or anything, it's that usually defenders can only kind of handle one variable at a time. They can only handle speed. They can only handle like situations where the player is not being deceptive or whatever. So you introduce two variables into

that and then you're going to be able to beat the defender. So good junior players don't need to change lanes. They don't need to really do anything to be able to beat or bypass defenders with the past. They do in the NHL where everyone is very tight in your face. They can match your speed, they can angle you and so on. And so if they don't start learning how to make lateral plays in transition, there's a real chance they won't be able to create off the rush in the NHL. I mean, just look at so many of these older high-end scores and junior who don't make it. So much of it is because they never figured out how to translate that rush scoring ability to the professional level. And then a solution to that is the second point, which would be

delay game. So all players of all skating ability, so from Connor McDavid to Alexey Pradesh, don't know if Pradesh was going to be, anyone had that on their bingo card for today, but I respect his game a lot. They find space by cutting back or cutting inside off the rush. They sprint and then they decelerate really fast to create a gap between them and the defender in front of them. The basic idea is inverting pressure. So the best position for you as the attacker to be in, relative to a defender is having the defender behind you. If you can outskate them to the net, get them on your back, that's favorable because you can drive. But if you can't do that, you cut back, you slow down.

That was the pressure behind you. And from there, you can find a trailer and so on. And then, I guess probably the most important one at this stage is board skills. So this kind of tie, this is cheating, right? Because, you know, being good along the boards has so many different components. I feel kind of bad excited, but I think it's been, I think we've framed board skills in the wrong way for too long. Being big as the attacking player along the boards is usually more of a weakness than a strength. It's about leverage being able to get your hips lower than the opponents.

So Seth Jarvis is a great example of this, but if you're not familiar with Seth Jarvis out there, listeners, Nathan McKinnon, think Nathan McKinnon along the boards or Sydney Crosby. win the body positioning race when they're skating for a loose puck or whatever. That means that they get their leg in front of the opponents, then they skate through their hands and say they make preemptive contact with a reverse hit or if you're set Jarvis, you just beat the guy in the ribs until he backs off a little bit. Do that. You need to be strong, but you also need to be able to skate.

You need to be able to drop your hips, right? Get low. That's the product of ankle flexion. And you also need to be able to escape off your outside edges. So with pressure on your back, these guys, Jarvis McKinnon, they work the board. for as little as possible, again, just like what we were saying with Robertson. If there's a tiny bit of space, they will put that puck underneath the opponent's stick, skate straight through her hands, and attack the middle.

If not, they'll wait for the defender to close space again, then cut back with that punch turn again that we talked about earlier, slingshotting themselves around that turning leg, and then attacking space again. And the puck is always, you know, positioned to make the next play. The hands, there's no overhandling the puck. It's just quick, simple touches to where it needs to be. And so, like, in a few seconds, this is all happening super quickly, right? You have to be able to skate, handle the puck, absorb, and play inside contact,

anticipate openings, and then dictate the actions of opponents at a high level with your feet moving and your head up. If a player is short on just one of those, their board play fails more often than not in the NHL. So, like, having that ability alongside that aggressive mentality, is huge. Like, there are some prospects who, uh, it's a huge part of the game. Matthew Nyes, Toronto Maple Leaf's prospect. This is his game. Everything that he does is getting the puck off the wall in attack in the middle. But even top end guys, like Connor Bedard, we don't see it a lot because his open ice skill can allow him to dominate. Right. But in these moments, you see that board skill and you're like, holy moly, like he could score a lot next year in the NHL just because

he's so good at being able to break off the boards and play inside contact. Anyway, that was long, I mean, it was a great question. I love that. No, there's a lot to pick at there. Let's kind of go with the most recent thing you brought up there, which is the board skills. I'll add another player who I've been wildly impressed with watching, and he's been in the NHL for basically a calendar year and now only. Matt Boldie, who, you know, when you'd watch him go into kind of like a 50-50 battle that you'd think of along the boards with a big veteran NHL defender, you'd be like, all right, there's no way he's coming away from this with the park, let alone in an advantageous situation. And he is so good at doing exactly what you highlighted there, which is almost like

getting there first by just a half step and then establishing the leverage where he's able to kind of create that seal. And then all of a sudden, because he's got the defender leaning, he's got an inside lane to get back into the middle and make a play off the wall. And he's become so good at that. And I know the points haven't necessarily been there and he just got the big contract. that I think people are wondering how to sort of balance all of those things. But considering that I think he's still got like a lot of physical maturing to do over the next couple of years in terms of putting on some more muscle and getting stronger. Like it's scary to think what a beast he will be able to be in that area of the game considering what he's already shown in such a short period of time. Boldie is an amazing example of that.

Like he's so good and you add in what he does with his stick. So first thing that he does very differently than a lot of other players is when he comes. comes into the boards, he's often fudding off the stick of the back pressure. Like, he'll just skate in and then just grab their stick and try to, like, pull it around or put it behind him. And then he's insanely good off the backhand. Like, for a lot of players along the boards, it's mostly, like, forehand and then a quick backhand touch and then recover the puck.

This guy, his hands on the backhand, some of the best I've ever seen in my life. It is ridiculous. Washington pulled that puck all the way across his body, definitely tap it through skates as he walks off the boards. I mean, and then he can shoot off the back and he can pass off the backhand. I mean, his backhand is like a first line forwards forehand. So that's just another way that he can, another layer, another way that he can dominate along the boards. Yeah. Yeah, certainly. I love those little details to his game. I'm trying to think of the other skills that you're bringing up. So like the delay game is really interesting because that's something that I think unlock

so much of what a guy like Kevin Fiala has become over the past. couple years, right? If he watches first two years in Nashville and compared to what he is now, I think I still wish that he had a bit more of that east-west wiggle and creativity to this game. Sometimes it's a bit too north-south for what a skilled player I think he is and has shown he's capable of being. But he's become so much better at picking his spots, right? You watch those first couple seasons and he just basically puts his head down, skates as fast as he can, which is faster than anyone else on the ice. And then we'd almost take himself out of ideal scoring positions or ideal attacking positions because he'd either get too deep or he'd kind of ruin the angle

and then all of a sudden he would just force a low percentage shot on net. And then now he's become so much better at going really fast and then slowing and just stopping on a dime and then either cutting to the middle or exploring other avenues to attack in the offensive zone. Nathan McKinnon similarly, right? I think he had a bit of that adjustment in the NHL level. And it's tricky because I think once you're playing, like you brought this up with Bidar, right?

It's kind of based on your environment or your surroundings where if you're, you're such a good player at the lower level and you're just able to beat everyone doing this one thing. I think sometimes that can become the risk in terms of like stunting future development potentially because you're not really forced to adapt. You're not really put in positions where, all right, my plan A doesn't work. Now I need to do a plan B. And so if you are forcing yourself to adapt, then sometimes it can look to scouts like you're overcomplicating or you're becoming needlessly, you know, tricky.

It's like, all right, just do this one thing that can beat the guy. And so I wonder whether like the quality of competition at Major Jr. can sometimes affect or slow down to development or force players to take some time at NHL to adapt because they've never really been faced with situations that they have to kind of deal with, if you know what I mean. Yeah, absolutely. It's a huge factor. And also like coaching what these players are taught at a young age, you look back 10 years ago, everyone was talking about speed, being fast off the rush, fast, fast, fast, fast, fast, fast, no stops. You know, if you cut back, you're playing too slow. And all that emphasis on speed created a lot of bad habits for top prospects, but it also created avenues for not so fast prospects to succeed. Like Cole Perfetti is one of these guys having a great rookie season. And he's managed to find success largely by doing the opposite of what that era of hockey development taught players to do.

Everyone was like, you need to skate fast. And he was like, okay, but if I cut back, then everyone has over back checked on me. And I have the entire space to walk it and fire off. a shot or set up a teammate, right? And so it's a big factor. I mean, even just watching the O HL 2015 playoffs, it's completely different than the OHL today. It's a completely different game.

I mean, there are players who are playing top pairing minutes who wouldn't even play in today's OHL, wouldn't even get a chance. There are guys playing top six forward wouldn't play in today's OHL. And tactically, like, Erie is just, Yuri with Carmen David, Dylan Strom to Brinket, Eerie Otters are destroying everyone

by doing the most basic breakout possible. And it all took all the way until the finals of the OHL before a team figured out what they were doing and stifled it. So it just goes like, that wouldn't happen in today's CHL. Teams are much smarter. Coaches have a much better understanding of what they're up against. And players are also much more technically developed and more mechanically refined than they were just 10 years ago. And so that gives them more solutions and more options to be able to adapt. Okay, well, so along the lines of what we're talking about here, right, functional skills,

um, skating, mobility, uh, things that translate from Major Junior to the NHL level of the pro game. I, I, I, I wanted to talk about this with you and this is partly why I wanted to bring you on. I want to push my Tanner Melendike agenda and I want to talk about him with you and talk this out because I had our pal Cam Robinson on the day after the CHL top prospects game and we had a big section about it and it was a really fascinating discussion and I reached out to you about it as well because I know you have potential you're not a skeptic but I think you have some potential reservations or areas for concern let's talk through it because I want us at EPIR rings I have to be bumping this guy up the draft board as long as high as we possibly can so let's talk about

kind of the pros and cons of his game and what you see from him not only with his club team but also at some of these other tournaments or kind of exhibition games or he gets to play with other top players So I've seen Melendick all the way back going to his prep days. He's probably the guy I've seen the most in the 2023 draft other than Badar. He's always been like a very elusive, explosive, not very creative, but an insane rush defender. If you go back and you watch, he played, get this, he played on a team with Zach Benson, another top prospect in prep. and oh my goodness, if you want to see some shot passes and crazy deflections, go find that tape. It's crazy. It's Melendick with all sorts of these crazy depth passes to Benson, who just

delicately redirects them into the top corner. It's pretty cool. But he's never been the most creative or elusive player from the point, but he's always had the potential to become that. So over the years, you know, at lower levels, you can just kind of pass it to Zach Benson and you'll get you the assist, you know? That's kind of what you do. He was a three, points per game guy in prep, so a pretty easy target there. Melendick, very elusive, incredible rush defender, takes away the middle. A lot of guys start their back pedal with a sea cut, so they just do a sea cut and they rock back and forth.

He starts it with these absurdly explosive backwards crossovers just eats away the middle, angles them to the outside, middle protecting stick. Oh, you think you're going to beat him wide because he's taking away the middle? He just comes across, skates through your hands, takes the puck away. Like, it's not even there. I think I have them through seven games this year, eight games this year, stopping something like 60% of the rushes against, which is the second or third most I've ever tracked from a player in a single season.

And I think he has two other top 10 rates over his WHL career too. So there's no dispute about the rush defense. It's largely a question of offense and puck skills. And I think a lot of this is mentality. So he has hands. they're functional, he also plays too fast. He has the same few patterns that he relies on. So in transition, he mostly just tries to make a quick pass. And if he can't, he will skate it straight up the middle and then shoot. He won't really adapt his shot to the pressure in front of him. So you get

a lot of these looks from the top of the circles that get deflected or miss the net. And then from the point, he's mostly just lateral movement and evasiveness. So which is fine if you're in the NHL, you can be Matt Griswick. If you're doing that in junior, you have to be, you know, or if you're going, if you're projecting you to do that in the NHL, you have to have a much higher threshold of play creation, you know, because things get more challenging, things get more difficult. And a big part of what, say, Luca Kagnoti does in Portland, who's another very exciting activating mobile, elusive defensemen, much like Melendick, is he, he's a very exciting, he's a very exciting, he's a lot of, He's manipulating opponents.

He's stacking the deck in his favor. So he sees an opponent from the point. He moves one way. He gets them to move. And then he's like, oh, you're going the wrong way. This is perfect. And then he just skates down the other side. Lennick doesn't do that.

He's never done at any level. So in order for him to reach that upside, you know, that you see with the skating, he's going to have to find a way to manipulate opponents and not just be a read-and-react player. Yeah. No, I see all that. I think it's fair to question. what the offensive upside is, especially at a higher level.

I guess for me, why I'm so intrigued or tantalized by it is because it's so rare to see a player who is as good of a skater as he is already using it to dominate defensively in terms of RASHD, right? Like, even at the NHL level, you see really smooth skating defensemen who you would consider skating to be a massive plus, either have no interest in doing that or are kind of as a means of self-president like taking the easy route and basically sagging back and allowing guys to just walk into the zone freely and not actually using it to contest at the blue line. And so the idea of what he

could do if he adds a few of those offensive wrinkles or if it's a matter of, you know, just being stimulated by playing with better players in a different environment or what have you. I find that so interesting because at the very least, it's a very projectable functional skill that I think with the prevalence of rush offense and speed attack in today's game. is so useful. And, you know, off the top of my head, I can't even think of how many, like, how many guys at, in the NHL right now, I think, are like, elite rush defenders who actually do it with, with skating, right? It's often guys who use their reach were kind of used that leverage to be able to be a nuisance around the blue line. And so the idea of what he

could be, I think, is so tantalizing to be that I think it's much more interesting, even though I recognize the flaws than a lot of players we probably have ranked higher because, you know, for a variety of reasons, I guess. Well, the question, I don't think there's any doubt that the upside is astronomical, just because you add in this skating and he's aggressive about jumping into the play, and you add in the details as well. It's mostly just, when you look at this draft, there are so many guys who also fit this mold.

Luke Kegnone is a good example. He's a late birthday, so he's a bit older, but the skiing isn't quite at the same level, the defense isn't quite at the same level. But the gap in puck skills, offense, breakout ability, is way more significant. And there are lots of other interesting candidates as well. Like Lucas Dragasevic does not skate at an NHL level whatsoever,

but he's a much more intelligent activator, more creative with the puck, and he's also scoring at an insane rate in the WHL. So it just comes down to like, where do they fit in the draft? But coming into this year, I thought Melendick was going to turn into a top 10 guy. I said it on multiple podcasts. It's written in all my game reports.

I was so confident that this guy, He is going to be a weapon this season. He will figure it out. And he just, he hasn't quite yet. And a part of it, too, is also that he is in an environment that is not unfavorable, but it's not the most favorable situation you could be in. That's for sure. Saskatoon has had issues with their top end player scoring over the last few years.

It's this year, it's really only Trevor Wong and Igor Cedaroff who are scoring that team. And if anyone listening to the show has heard of those two players, full credit to you, good job. But, you know, they have lots of NHL draft picks, but those aren't the ones who are getting the points. And they have an overager defenseman who's scoring a point per game. So you put him in a different environment. Of course, he's going to improve. He's going to be more active. He's going to post better results. But yeah, it's tough one. Like, I go back and forth on him all the time between he could easily be a first rounder. Like, I have no doubt in my mind that he could slide into the just based on tools alone, but it's going to be really dependent on what team takes him.

Okay, well, here's a question that I think is an interesting thing to consider. It's, and Melendix's a perfect example of this, right, because I think we feel confident in the skating ability, especially how he'll be able to use it defensively, but we're concerned about the offensive upside there or what he can contribute to that. I think there's a, do you think there's a difference in terms of like our confidence in projections for prospects who have the majority of their value as a player tied up in offense or theoretical creation versus defense

in terms of not only because the product is so different between the levels but because I feel like if you are a skilled offensive player who's creating what you need to accomplish to become useful or effective is so much easier or more attainable I think Like replicating defensive excellence is so difficult that we even see it for established NHL players where a guy can have really strong defensive metrics one season and then all of a sudden just completely craters the following year.

And you almost never see that in terms of year to year offensive metrics unless like the shooting percentage just completely dries up, for example. But the habits and the skills are kind of remain intact. Do you think that kind of plays into it here where part of your concern is that his main strength is in something that maybe is is less reliable to bank on year over year ahead, especially once you kind of program it up to a higher level. Sure. Yeah, I mean, the volatility of defense as well established at this point.

And, you know, if you take Melendick out of the best rush defense team in the CHL, there's probably going to be a pretty significant drop off in his ability to defend the rush. But that doesn't mean that he's not going to be effective defensively elsewhere. He just might not be effective defensively in the situations that would be most valuable. Like, if you take away his rush defense ability, right, he's probably a late rounder because you're projecting him to be an extremely good play killer, and then a guy who joins the play as the third or fourth option, gets the puck, moves it effectively to his teammates. Now, it's not with him, again, it really comes down to like, if there were any flashes of him

manipulating opponents, it would be a slam dunk top 20 guy. You don't skate like that. You don't defend like that. You don't have that level of puck skills and not become an NHL player. If you have some capacity to think the game at like the high end or highish level. So, I mean, it really comes down to like the viewings that I get in the last portion of this season. And also how well he performs in that side. And, you know, if he goes to a team that has like a well-established track record of teaching players how to read the game, how to be more proactive with the puck, his stock goes up, and he'll improve. I have no doubt about that. Again, like, this is a player's why. Like, I really like Melendick. This is not a secret. Only at least the draft guy. People will see. I don't know,

Mitch. I don't know. I think if you were on board with me, Cam, we'd be having a much different discussion here. No, I'm kidding. A lot of it is philosophical, right? Would you, I think, I think players generally improve, but they need to flash it. And I'm not really a believer, especially based in the draft retrospective series. Generally, if they don't have it, they don't have it. If they don't have that high-level thinking, they won't develop it. And to me, based on what I've seen to Melendick right now, he does not have it. That doesn't mean that he won't be an effective NHL, or he can figure out how to defend at an NHL level. I've little doubt. But perhaps you're looking more at a bottom-paring guy than a Macra's like. No, certainly I think it's not going to get

easier for him if he's already not hitting that stride at this level to do so when the game speeds up even more. I guess another consideration is, and I keep thinking about this through like the lens of worst case scenario, like him being what he is now and not developing that. Of course, if he developed, he'd be a smash, no doubt about it, at least late first round pick. But a trick is as well in terms of usage, right, and what his particular skill is. So that Rush D, right, you kind of map it out to what he would look like at the NHL level. That is a most effective. effective quality if you're playing big minutes against the other team's best players because they're the ones who pose the biggest threats in terms of actually carrying the puck into the zone and being

a threat in that regard right so you want him out there against those guys now if you're kind of mapping it out that probably means that he himself is not going to be playing with his own team's most skilled players because those are the guys who get the matchup assignments typically and so you're going to be basically a zero offensively in that regard and you're going to ask yourself well do we want this guy out for big potentially top pairing minutes if he's not contributing anything else in terms of the way of creation or in offensive capability? So it's like a great skill in isolation and I think it's something that I value significantly, but you're right in terms of what it would look like at the NHL level if the other areas of this game don't round out.

It can be very limiting and potentially for a lot of teams, it would be a situation where you wouldn't even be able to deploy them in a way that would get the most out of that one skill he already has. right and I look at say Coundry Miller or Cain and Gully these other great skaters who are primarily rushed offenders They were also very strong offensive players in some regard

Cain and Gouley was a very intelligent activator He doesn't get enough credit for this I see a lot of look at what Cade and Gouley is doing all of us It's like he's always done this This is his game, it's always been what he's done And Coundreg Miller was always A very intelligent, creative, nuanced

offensive player but it was just in an environment in a situation with the NTP and with Wisconsin where it didn't fully get to shine because he wasn't in that thing, he wasn't in those positions. Maybe Melendick does in a different environment. Maybe I'm just a victim of sample size.

Like, the reality of it is that you can, junior hockey isn't like the NHL, you can't watch a player three, four times and know everything about their game. Players and junior don't show the full extent of their game in that much time. I've watched Melendick a ton. I've probably seen him over 35 times,

40 times in the last four years. But some, but, you know, they're still, they play 68 plus games the season. You know, sometimes you just miss things. That's the reality of it. Yes, you do. All right, Mitch, let's take our break here. Let's sneak it in while we still can

because we just went very, very long on that question. And then when we come back, we'll rattle through some of the other great listener questions we got. You were listening to the Hockey Ocast streaming on the Sports Air Radio Network. Breaking down the top stories in the NHL every day. The Jeff Merrick Show. Subscribe and download the show on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're back here with Mitch Brown.

Mitch, we did two questions there. Let's try to do at least five or six more here to give the listeners some love. So, okay, here's a one from a Brandon Yip super fan. Ray DeGager has scored over 80% of his goals off the rush or on the power play. How do you project that to the pros? and are you concerned with his play and production without space? Now, I haven't actually fact-checked to see whether over 80% of his goals are, as the listener says, off the rush around the power play.

But you know what? The PDOCS listeners are very informed and generally know what they're talking about. So I think we're just going to have to go with it as truth. So what are your takes on Yeager? Because we had him at EP Ringsside, I believe, in our latest update 23rd overall, which was tracking way behind Bob McKenzie's seventh overall ranking, I believe. So what's your mileage on Jagger and is this a concern? Yeah, it's a concern.

And I think it ties into like the broader theme of his game, which is more of an off puck shooter, you know, guy who gets open and fires, who doesn't necessarily have a ton of interesting ways to advance the puck in the positions that he'll need to be able to get those off the past shots in the NHL. So he's not really much with dynamic transition force. His playmaking showed signs of improvement early in the season

when he was playing a more give and go style. He was trying to take control, manipulate opponents, pass through them, and then that's kind of faded a little bit throughout this year. And then as for the off-puck game, it is very hard to play that game in the NHL. You know, the getting open game, there are so many variables. You're thinking two, three, four steps in advance, and then something goes wrong.

You're out of position, and, you know, it goes poorly. So Jaeger's solution is usually to arrive to space late. So try to get behind defenders arrive for a rebound. You know, the rebound goes through the feet. He picks it up. He cleans it up. So it really comes down to like what you value, I think, with Yeager. Like if you value a guy who can absolutely like launch pucks off the pass, score on the power play, kill penalties effectively.

No issue with Yeager being top 15. Because that's what he's going to do in the NHL. If you're looking for more of a play driving type player who's going to control the flow of the game, post-positive underlying results consistently every single season at even strength, that's probably not what Yeager is tracking it be at this point. Now, Moose Jaw has been not great this season despite their record. They're a highly skilled team, but pretty much everyone there has been roughly stagnant since last season, whether that's the, whether that's the non-stop activating Dendematechuk or the high-flying creative Jagger Furcus they're the same players that they were last year

and so perhaps with Yeager who's more of a player who's dependent on his teammates to score they haven't taken the next step so he hasn't taken the next step lots of reasons why it could be and there's still a lot of draft cycle yet to answer that yeah well based on that description I would be not very enthused at picking a player like that in the top

10. I think part of the issue for me is like it and certainly like that skill set is is valuable and from a complimentary perspective at least. The issue is if you're taking him that high as a lottery team, realistically, you don't have the players already in place that can probably allow that player to succeed once he does become on your team. Come on your team now. If it's three, four years down the road, you give yourself a bit of runway to add some of that higher end talent that can allow him to slide in and play that complementary role. But it sounds like he'd be much more suited on a team that already has those players that will allow him to just keep doing what he does best.

And he might not be afforded that opportunity based on where he gets drafted. Right. It really depends on where he goes. And also, like, he did show the playmaking early in the season. And he has shown a little bit of flashes off the rough. So maybe those get expanded over the next couple of seasons, as we often see in junior hockey. And then those questions are gone.

and he looks like being another version of Dylan Guptor again. Yeah. Okay, Jake here asks, if you had a choice between picking two similarly ranked prospects, one playing in a men's league versus another playing in Major Junior, which one would you be more have to take? Two years ago, I would have said pro without hesitation. Now, I think for most player types, I'm picking the junior player.

The main reason is, like, largely development players in junior are more likely to get opportunities to expand their options, offense and transition games in a game setting. In pro, there are different requirements. And there's also the fact of the transition from Europe to North America can be very challenging. Defense is very different. It's more in North America high pace, closed distance, press players on the boards, release and then go back to the middle. Stanislav Sousel, when he was drafted by Columbus in the third round. It was all defense at the pro level. He played two pro seasons, looked like a shutdown guy. And the WHL, his defense has just been so-so, while his offense has really expanded.

And then every year, of course, this guy is too good for the CHL. And then he's only like a point per game score. Like look at Philip Meshire this year. He played two full pro seasons and he's only a point for game in the O. So, yeah, I would lean generally junior now, I think. Interesting. Well, so are you viewing that? Are you viewing this question and your answer through the prism of like once you draft

a player where they're going to get further development time? Yes, definitely. Or what about? But okay, so what about the question of where they've already played in terms of what you've seen from them in terms of the habits? I guess that also ties into that as well, but it might be a slightly different kind of lens to view it through. Same answer for the most part, but it's more player specific, right? Right. Like if you're projecting a guy who's going to be a very creative high flying offensive force, you probably want him more in junior or more in a structure that develops that.

But say he really struggles with certain things that you'll only. only learn in the pro game, then you know, then you're cool having them there for sure. Yep. Okay. Meeks here asks, does knowing scouts and their tendencies on other teams ever give an advantage in terms of predicting how a team might behave on draft day? Yeah, of course it does. Definitely knowing like what teams value overarching, you'll have an idea, kind of the player

archetype. I think a great example is the Ottawa senators. Everyone kind of knew that they were going to pick hard skill guy, hence overall, and it looked like it was going to be cool selling. because Cole Cillinger is hard-skill guy who also scored a goal pre-came in the USAGEL. And instead, they picked Tyler Boucher. So you could look at that as a mis-evaluation within their own process. And so understanding what a team is looking for, understanding what their process is,

you'll quickly learn that, A, there are certain processes that are more volatile, that teams will make more mistakes in than others. And then B, that there are certain processes that are very, very predictable. So certainly very valuable knowledge to have, especially for team side. It's interesting. I mean, I think the calculus has changed quite a bit over the past handful of years with just like how much more information is readily available to everyone right now. Like there's very few secrets, I think especially compared to before where like you'd go to a rink and you'd watch someone to play and there might not necessarily be a lot of scouts there

and you could probably with confidence be like that was going to be like a little secret or a little edge that you had, whereas now everyone's kind of watching everything. But it's interesting, we talked about Melendike earlier. Like, when I did that show with Cam after the Cajel Top Prospects game and I rented and raved about him for 20 minutes, I got a lot of feedback from people working with teams that were like, oh my God, we were hoping to sneak him through. Why are you like, please stop talking about them. So I'm sure they're not going to be very happy with part one of today's show.

But it's always fun to kind of see that interplay between, especially I think a lot of changes over the course of a draft here, right? Where not only do opinions change with more viewings and how the seasons go, but also like you start off thinking one way and then as the air goes along, you start seeing hype building and that can potentially totally change

your expectations based on where you think you might be able to get a player previously. Yeah, definitely. Okay, next question here. Okay, here's a fun one for you that I think you're uniquely equipped the answer. So, Rooster asks, where are some players in this here's class who aren't producing that well, and let's take that through meaning like pure

box scar stats with goals and assists, what are generating lots of offensive opportunities otherwise for their team, whether it be Shaw creation or expected goals. Sure, Matthew Mania on Sudbury, very skilled, fluid defenseman who loves charing straight at opponents and trying to rip their heads off. He's extremely good at taking the puck off the boards, attacking the middle, and creating advantageous situations. Decision making there needs to improve. That's all right. We've talked about this before. Usually does. Colson Pitcher, another very violent forward who was very good at getting open up puck, shooting off the pass, and he also has some nasty hands. I think he's one of the top expected goal producers in my data set this season. So he's exciting. Beckett Hendrickson of the

United States National Development Program. He's a very exciting playmaker, very physically underdeveloped. I think he's 6-1-160, and so his stride is very variable. He has some difficulty playing through contact, but the way that he gets pucks through defenders is so impressive. And of course, I think one, I think the easy one is probably Oliver Moore. He kind of gets lost in that shuffle behind Gabe Perrault, Ryan Leonard, and Will Smith on that top NDTP line. But he's the most exciting skater of them.

He's like, imagine Tanner Melendick, but an even better skater as a forward, who is also manipulating players at a high pace. So the skein is there, the edges, the defense, everything is all there in place. He's creating a ton of opportunities. He just doesn't necessarily have the quality of teammates and quite the same level of opportunity to be able to convert all of those into points at this stage. But I'm willing to bet he does. I like that.

Okay. Carter here asks, how worried Kings fans be about losing Brancke and a trade now, we should say after the initial approarer over the weekend, it has at least for the time being been refuted that he will be involved in any potential make of chicken trade. But just let's talk about Brian Clark as a player and then kind of the King's system as well because they're in a unique spa where they, organizationally, when you combine both what they have at the NHL level, HL level, and other developmental leagues are absolutely loaded with right-shot defensemen, which is something that most teams either do not have enough of

or are desperately wanting more of as a result. And so it's an interesting calculus for them based on what they already have and then how valuable that is to be perceived around the league. And how that ties into Rand Clark's stock and I guess his availability as a potential trade candidate. He's one of the more volatile top prospects that we've seen. It's partly the consequence of that skating. He's only an inside edge guy. He doesn't really use his outside edge to turn.

So he's very easily even at the OHL level forechecked into like rimming the puck up the board. making bad passes and so on. The retrievals remain an issue, and his rush defense is very like one and done. Tanner Melendick is extremely good at building speed, angling, taking away opportunities. Brant Clark just lunges straight towards guys and hopes that that's going to be enough to get him to stop.

Now, the NHL is changing. Guys like Brant Clark will have opportunities. If he's not the primary puck carrier on his defense to pairing, he will excel because that means that he can jump up into the play, avoid having to use his edges, and get pucks with full speed. And from there, you see this incredibly imaginative, creative playmaker, a guy who shot, an ability to create space for that shot,

has improved so much over the years. I mean, he's dynamic, he's electrifying, he's creative, but he's also very situational. And so if you're of the LA Kings and you're thinking, now maybe this isn't the direction that we want to go on team-wise, which I don't think it is. But if you were, then yeah, you could probably justify moving on from him and not being too concerned about it.

But you know, you don't really want to trade a guy like that, especially when because of how specific his skill set is, he might have more value to you than any other team. Right, especially as a cost-controlled asset for a lot of years. Indeed. Although I will say just because of the loggen, they have, they haven't really been able to slot him in. We saw him last year because they had so many injuries that he was kind of forced into action.

But, man, I desperately want to watch more Jordan Spaner. I'm not watching NHL HL hockey on a daily basis, unfortunately, so I haven't been really able to watch him this year. But the things I saw last year clearly still a work in progress and flawed in certain areas, but just his ability with the creativity and some of the moves that he displayed already, even in a playoff series against the Oilers, like, he needs to be in that HL. And I think if I were another team, I would be valuing him very, very highly in a potential trade, even though he hasn't played in the league this year, basically. one of the best examples of off puck activation and the sport. Just film study on him, teach all your players how to do the stuff off puck. He's the guy. I love it.

Okay, one final one here before we head out, Ernie asks, what are one or two things that can be done to get youth hockey players to think the game faster and develop better hockey sense along the way? Oh, that is a great question. So the first thing, most obvious thing, is to teach them to actively scan. So toss a puck into the corner and see what they do as they skate towards the puck. Ideally, they check over both shoulders. And anytime a player has time and space with the puck, they should be looking around them.

Look for options, look for threats, not just looking straight towards the net. Like a simple way to kind of teach to this would be run a puck recovery drill from the corner. First player goes in. Second player is kind of soft pressure. Their stick is on one side of the player. The first player has to scan, identify the direction of the stick. and then go the opposite way. And then you can start building up more and more adding more edge moves,

and then you can make it into a game situation where there is hard pressure on the first player, and there's also options, and then they have to try to manipulate. And then the second thing would be teaching players how to do moving pass receptions. So head up, looking for options, and it also puts players in space, right? If you are moving, you're going to be able to access the next play sooner,

which increases their favorable touches, which to teach hockey sense, that's really what you want. You want players to be in positions to make the next play with as much time and space as possible. So those would be the two. Yeah, as soon as I read that question, I was like, I wonder how long is I take Mitch to bring up scanning, so you delivered.

All right, man, this is a blast. I think listeners are going to really enjoy this one. I'll let you on the way out here, promote some of your work, and let them know where they can check out more with the video and the written stuff that you produce for us. So check out

E.P.Ringside.com. We have the draft guide is starting production soon in a few weeks. We have an NCAA free agent guide coming out and of course

all the great trade deadline coverage coming from Dimitri, Jayfresh, Davis St. Louis, myself. And then keep an eye

on the YouTube page. There are a couple draft breakdowns coming soon. One will be very enjoyable for the Tanner Melendick fans

in this crowd because he might be the first video we do. Wow. Oh, you know I'll be watching and sharing that one, that's for sure. This was a blast man. I'm glad we got to do this. I heartily co-sign, subscribe to the EPIRING side and checking out all our work.

A really nice blend of like an active NHL coverage with also learning more about the guys and their way up that people like myself don't have time to follow on a day-to-day basis, but yourself and David St. Louis and others cover so well and get us prepared for seeing them once they do make it at NHL. This is a blast man. We'll have you on again shortly if the listeners like what they heard. Smash that five-star button wherever you listen to the PDO cast. And we'll be back tomorrow with more here of the HockeyPedocast on the Sportsnet Radio Network.