The Hockey PDOcast - Regression Candidates, and Best and Worst Vibe Teams

Episode Date: October 31, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Ryan Lambert to talk about the biggest regression candidate team through the first month of the season, and the teams with the best and worst vibes at the moment. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the HockeyPedioCast. My name is Dimitra Feltovich and joining me is my good buddy, Ryan Lambert. Ryan, what's going on, man? Not a lot. How about you? Not much. We're recording on a Halloween, happy Halloween to you and everyone listening. Hopefully you enjoy all the candies your heart's desire today. we're going to have a fun show here today I've got a bunch of mailback questions from a PDCAST Discord for us to get into we're going to bounce around cover both the good and the bad

that we're seeing right now in the NHL let's start with some of the spooky stuff to stay on brand and on the theme here we're going to talk about some regression candidates and what's spookier than regression both both good and bad nothing very on brand for us here's the question from the PDOCs Discord as I said

it goes which team is most likely to get either revived or destroyed by the regression monster. Let's start with some of the teams that I think, or one team in particular that I think could theoretically improve based on their underlying profile so far. It's the Edminton Oilers for me. Now, I guess the complicating factor here is that Connor McDavid is set to miss two to three weeks,

which yes is on the good side of things because the uncertainty around his injury after he left in Columbus was pretty alarming, right? I think there was some speculation that it could be a really serious long-term one. Now, I don't know if you feel this way as well. I'm like so fantasy football brain. I've got so many teams this season.

I feel like that's all I'm doing on Sundays and really all week when I'm not watching hockey. But in football, high ankle sprains, which I believe is what Carter McDavid has. We don't have that much detail on it, but that was a speculation is like a catastrophe in football, right? Like when you're running backs gets a high ankle sprain, and you're like, all right, well, he's going to miss a couple weeks.

That's my season, yeah. But even when he comes back, there's going to be no explosiveness. He's not going to be able to cut. He's going to look like a shell of himself. Obviously, different circumstances in hockey, but I think some of those same concepts around explosion and quick bursts apply,

especially for a player who plays the way McDavid does. So even if he misses, let's say, eight to ten games here, who knows what he's going to look like when he comes back as he sort of ramped his way back up into full form. Now, he's a cyborg. So if anyone can sort of come back without missing a beat, it's him. But I think that's my only sort of reservation here,

because otherwise I've got a bunch of stats here that would indicate Doylers being a team that's clearly going to start scoring more and winning more. But that's kind of in the back of my mind as a bit of a, I guess a bit of a pause or a bit of cause we're concerned. Yeah, I mean, okay, I just pulled up the numbers here. Expected goals per 60, they are fifth in the league in all situations. Expecting goals against per 60. Okay, they're 13th from the bottom. That's not good, you know. but they're shooting 6.4% and their team save percentage.

Again, this is all situation. So this includes empty nets is 866. I would imagine both of those numbers, even without McDavid, should come up. Right. So the question that you've got to ask is like how deep is the hole going to be when he comes back or, you know, even in the interim, right? Like if the hole even gets a little bit deeper, you know, You know, they're already below 500. They showed last year they can rebound and they can go on like a 120 point pace for 65 games or whatever it was last year.

But that's not a gamble you want to be making as a general rule. Like, yeah, regression will come. They're going to have a week where they score like 14 goals in two games or something like that. And well, I'll go, okay, it's all fixed, like statistically. But, you know, they're below Anaheim in the standings right now. That's just got to be so discouraging. And for me, as someone who picked them to win the Stanley Cup at the start of the year, I look pretty stupid. Yeah, they're first in shots, fifth and high danger chances, third and expected goals generated.

As you mentioned, 31st and actual goals, only 22 in 10 games because they're shooting 4.9% at 515, 6.4% at overall, which is 32nd. Some quick maths for you. last year they shot 10.56% as a team, which wasn't even, like I think for the talent level, that's pretty reasonable. It wasn't even like top five. I think it was closer to top 10 for them.

So I would expect them to be that as a true talent level team, if not more. If they were just finishing at that rate, they'd be 21st in goals right now ahead of Philly. And that would be an extra 14 goals for them in these 10 games. And obviously those circumstances look way different. So I think just applying that sort of like logic and common sense, I do expect it to improve.

I guess my one concern for them is the defensive side you mentioned, not that they're going to keep giving up this many goals because regardless of your thoughts on Stuart Skinner, I don't think they're going to be 30th in lead team say percentage regardless. Like their defensive metrics look pretty good. They have the puck all the time. But whether it's darn null nurse or whether it's some of those lingering concerns they have as an organization, that's probably one where I'd be like,

all right, well, that could carry over for longer than the offensive side. Like, I fully expect them to start scoring more goals. I still don't think necessarily that everything is immediately alleviated when they do. No, I agree. And the other thing I just wanted to point out for kind of, you know, I don't know about you, but I kind of thought the Oilers like improved over the summer. Yeah. You know?

And one of the guys that was really expecting to kind of be like, ooh, he could be like a good middle six option for them is Victor Arvinson hasn't really done very much. is zero goals. And then the other guy is Zach Hyman also zero goals only one assist. Like those are guys you're paying a decent amount of money to score goals for you. I don't think anybody thought Zach Hyman was scoring 50 again this year or whatever, you know. But you need him more than more than zero 10 games into the season. Yeah, they're minus 13 goal differential right now.

The sharks are the only other team in the league sub 40% goal share, right? So it's been it's been pretty tough. I mentioned the concern beyond the goal attending and I mentioned nurse there in particular because I think there was, I don't know how you felt about this. I imagine there was a bit of optimism that like, all right,

well, we stripped Cody Cici from this equation, this off season, right? And we know that even last year, when things were going well under Chris Knoblock, he had that whole bit all postseason where every series he would start back with Cici and nurse,

they would falter. And then he'd make, he'd be like, all right, I'm actually going to either take Cody Cici out of the lineup or split up this pair. And then every mainstream media member would write an article about how Chris Knoblock was pulling all the right strings.

It was a genius. And we'd be like, why doesn't he just do this right away? I think we have enough evidence that it doesn't work. So they got CC out of there. And it was like, all right, well, I think there's all these bounce back at some sort of baseline level. This year he's being outscored 9 to 3 at 515 has a 45% expected goal share. And he's still playing the third most minutes on this team.

So that's when I mentioned lingering concerns. That's probably something that a bit of goal scoring regression for the team in general will mean that his 515 goal share will probably. improve just because they're going to score more with them on the ice if guys like dry sidle and hymen are converting but at the same time that is one thing where it's like all right well we had this team as the number one stanley cup favor heading into the season very high expectations for them understandably so after not only coming that close last year but then as you said improving this offseason these are kind of like limiting factors i think for them that maybe we should revisit as

the season goes along but i think just purely for the basis of this question like who's going to bounce back and regress, the Oilers are going to start scoring more goals. If you're playing in a fantasy league, definitely try to buy a lower, pick up all these guys because I think it's going to happen with Erdogan McDavid. Yep. Did you have any other candidates for this side of the ledger, or do you want to move on to the other side in terms of like who's going to sort of who's kind of maybe playing above their skis here?

Yeah, I mean, the other one to mention obviously is Nashville, right? Like just a horrible start. Something like 40, 41% of the goals. I just clicked away from it, so that's my bet. But like they're just not scoring very much, and especially they can't get a stop. And I think, you know, they're not going to shoot this low all season,

but definitely they're not going to get like outright bad goal tending all season. So that's kind of, again, it's kind of the same thing as Edmonton where a lot of people had expectations and they didn't meet them right away. it's like, okay, well, you have to catch one of Winnipeg, Dallas, Minnesota, and the way things are going right now, maybe Colorado, probably Colorado. That door feels like it's closing much more quickly than, you know, Edmonton has to get past Seattle and Calgary. I think they're fine to do that. I don't know about Nashville.

Yeah. We've already seen UC Soros start to play better past couple games. I think like based on his track record and just clear. visibly, like, he's a very good goalie. I expect that to normalize. The offensive side is interesting, right? Because Forzberg has been really good, even if he hasn't been scoring as much. Like, he's been on top of it.

All of his shot rates look great. Like, he's generating a ton. Stamco's has been on the ice for one 5-15 goal this season for. And Marshall's still has been zero. Now I think Marcia's so I have higher hopes for. I think the Stamco's thing is a bit concerning because this is a carryover of last year where he was incredibly ineffectual of 5-15. it was masked by just getting to tee off on Nikita Kuturov brilliant passes on the power play.

We just saw this week, right? What was it on Tuesday? When Nashville visited Tampa Bay, it was a very emotional night, certainly, in the building, right? Like they ran that beautiful Stampco's package early in the first period during the first break. You saw a lot of, like, fans in the stands, clear, understandable emotional attachment to what he meant for that organization and how long he played there and all the success they had. And I think there's still this belief of In certain quarters, it's like I can't believe that the lightning Did him like that, right?

That they decided to move on. They prioritized bringing in Gensel instead. They didn't want to pay Stamco's. And I get that emotional attachment just from a logical kind of clear-headed perspective. It was a no-brainer move. We're seeing that play out this year. And I am concerned about Stamco's value and contribution at 515 because he'll probably start scoring some more goals

just because a shot still is really good. but he's not clearly not going to drive offense at 5-15. And I think part of the thesis around being high on Nashville after last year was we like the system Andrew Brunette put in place, right? A lot of their underlying numbers were good. They just needed more talent and finishing ability. And I'm not sure if all of a sudden they're not still as top heavy as they were last year where it's like, all right, when Forsberg, Nyquist and O'Reilly or Foresburg-Oryly and whoever's playing with them, they're going to be good. But what are they going to do in the other minutes? I'm not sure that's been answered,

despite all the money they spent on these guys this offseason. Yeah, that's exactly right. With Sam Coast, it kind of didn't feel like they were buying a powerplay weapon and like a name, a guy that's going to sell a lot of jerseys, you know? I feel like there was a stretch where their power play was like horrible last year.

Yep. And then when they had that hot streak, it heated up along with it, you know, what do you want to say, chicken or the egg, kind of a situation there. But like, I think that getting Stamco's, in theory, made that power play more reliably steady

over the course of the full year, if that makes sense. And Marcia Soe was going to always kind of going to be the guy who was the more effectual five-on-five play driver. And look, right now, like, Stamco's is shooting 3% and Marcia So is under 7. So, yeah, those numbers are going to come up for sure. But at the same time, like you say, you know, it was just a situation where they paid a lot of money to maybe not improve as much as the money would imply. Let's put it that way. Yeah.

Or the name brand suggested, certainly. Yes. All right. On the other side, the biggest Golden Knights were 7-3 and 1 right now. They lead the league in 515 goals with 37. overall goals with 50. Now, a lot of that success has been driven by the power play, which is top five in goals per hour. And I think that is real. Like, you look at the personnel and the way they're moving the puck. It's really beautiful and a real well-ollowed machine.

The top line is out of this world. I mentioned how the Oilers, I only have 14 5-1-5 goals this season. Their top line of Ico, Barbershevin, Stone, has also created 14-5-15 goals just by themselves for comparison. Yeah. This team leads the league in shooting percentage, right? It's at 15.5 right now. So I think if you're just sort of providing a foil to what we just said about Edmonton, there on the other side of things. I think they're an interesting theme for us to discuss, though, because beyond that, they sort of had this gambit this offseason where,

like, we all know how they've devoted so much money to the top of their roster, especially down the middle, where they can go Eichel, Hurtle, and Carlson, and then even Nick Hua, and then their defense,

right, after paying not only Hannafin, but Theodore now as well. And so what they did is on the margins, they just took all these flyers on, like young sort of theoretically skilled shooters on the wing, right? Like they have Dorofiev. They bring in Olives and Holtz.

They have Brissan as well. And those are types of players that I think are generally going to probably have pretty low underlying numbers of 515, right? Because like those are the types of players that profile as that. They might score a bit about that and exceed it. So I'm curious to see how the next 10 to 15 to 20 games goes for them because their 515 underlying metrics have certainly slipped. They're under 50% in shots and chances.

I think they're 27th and 5-on-5 expected goals. Yet I still like, I think that this is a pretty good offensive team. So I guess comparing that to past iterations of the Golden Knights, it's a little bit different. But I'm a curious here or take on kind of where we're at with them right now and what a reasonable expectation should be for them moving forward. Yeah, I mean, they're just not going to keep scoring four and a half goals an hour, right? Like they, but they can afford to have that thin out by 20.

and they're still going to outscore their opponents. I think you would maybe say that, that, yeah, Aiden Hill, 878 to start the year, I think it's fair to say that number will come up. I don't know how much, but I think it's sustainable only because of the just insane quality of the top six, right? Everything else, you're just kind of, you know, doing the McDavid dry-sidal thing a little bit,

where it's like it kind of doesn't matter what happens when those guys are off the ice. And it kind of doesn't matter what happens in the regular season because this is a team built to be in the playoffs. All they got to do is get in and they're dangerous, that kind of thing. You'd obviously like to see the expected goals number to hit 50, 51 even. And you're super duper confident that this is going to be one of the whatever five or six best teams in the league. but like you say, I think that maybe where they're at right now is kind of the floor of what you'd call a reasonable range based on their depth issues. But that top, that top six is just so good that what can you even say they're going to outscore a lot of their problems. Yeah.

I mean, they're such legitimate drivers. And in their defense, William Carlson missed the first, what, eight games. He just came back for the last three. So I think that's going to help a lot of those underlying numbers as well. The reason why I think they're also interesting and I think to watch with them is despite the fact that they're up against the cap, they don't have a first round pick till 2027. I think they're also still uniquely positioned to make another big swing deal at this deadline.

And you can get all your jokes out of the way about LTIR and someone getting conveniently injured at the right time. But even beyond that, they're one of these teams that's a contender, but they also have these three sort of mid-sized contracts on prime-aged players that I think other teams would find desirable because they don't play as much for them because of that top end depth, but they'd play more on other teams, on worst teams. And that's Nick Waugh, who makes $3 million, Nick Haig, who makes $2.29 as an RFA, and then it was Ack White Cloud, who makes $2.75. And so a lot of contenders just don't have those types of players or contracts to sort of work with if they want to keep upgrading or contract. consolidating pieces into star players. I'm not sure Vegas should do that because at some point it's like, all right, if you just have only seven guys and they're making all the money,

it's going to be pretty tough to win the other minutes. But we've seen that's kind of their goal and their agenda and what they're probably going to try to do again. So like all of our evaluation of Vegas right now in terms of what they are is great. But I think that come March, it be sort of foolish of us to think that they're probably not going to add one more legitimate needle mover. and that's pretty scary.

They always find a way. They always find a way to do it. No, I don't think, you know, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think anybody had them in the hunt for Tomas Hurtle. And then they get him with salary retained. And yeah, they gave up a decent amount to do it. But like they got him to be a huge difference maker for them. And, you know, it seems like it's working this year.

Yep. No, not only did no one have. that but I remember specifically it was one of the last deals that came on trade deadline day and it came from bob mcgenzy just coming out of retirement to just drop one more with bob bomb on us and we were like oh my god that completely came out of nowhere okay do you have any other I guess like the jets are an obvious one as well as well as well they're shooting of the roof certainly some of their start like the top two lines in particular have maybe not for the first line because my thoughts on Kyle Connor despite the fact that he's producing so much and it's playing really well right now they're probably going to be one of those lines they're It has low, expected goals, higher, goal share. I have been a bit surprised that Nick Euler's line has such poor underlying numbers. But when you have Connor Hallibuck playing at the level he is, it erases a lot of these sins. So, like, they're another clear regression candidate. Any team that's nine and one or whatever they are is probably not going to keep winning at that rate.

So I think that goes that saying. But their baseline is so high because of all those factors that we know about them. Any other teams beyond that kind of catch your eyes like, all right, well, they've been playing well or scoring a lot. but I'm not necessarily expecting that to continue. Yeah, I guess the one other one that I'd kind of flag here is the capitals, just because, like, their score, nobody thought, even if you were like high on them, or, you know, oh, they can go back to the playoffs or whatever.

I don't think you had them running like 63% expected goals. I bet you didn't have them shooting 12% as a team, that kind of thing. I'm just, you know, they're banking points and the ones you get now are just as valuable as the ones you get in like February and March. I'm just curious how long they keep it up. The other thing to say about them is like they've actually kind of played a pretty tough schedule to do this.

Like I'll just read it to you. New Jersey, Vegas, Dallas, New Jersey, Philly, Tampa Rangers. and they're whatever, six and two. Like, their next few games are against like Montreal, Columbus, Pittsburgh,

you know, like teams that they should beat on, you know, in theory, if they keep playing this way. I don't think, I don't know if I think this is going to last, but if they keep playing like this,

why wouldn't it? Well, not only have been that they've been playing those teams in a tough schedule, but they've been like very willing and engaged and just, trading haymakers with them. Like that game they played against the Rangers the other night was an incredibly fun, high scoring back and forth game.

And they were, it's so polar opposite. They shot the Rangers 46 to 19 in that game. That's crazy. They were going after them. They have so much depth. Like even guys like, you just watch like Alexi Protas just flying up and down the ice.

Like there's no off shifts against them. And that you're right. Like last year, even when they were winning games, it was all right, well, the shots were 23 to 21 tonight. And nothing happened. And they won 2-1 with an empty netter at the end.

Because Charlie Lindgren was 930 for two months, right? Exactly. That's it. And this year, it's all right, we just put up 40 plus shots and scored five goals and played an incredibly exciting game. And so maybe they won't keep winning at this rate. But I do think it's highly encouraging just from like a viewer-friendliness and entertainment product that they're playing this way. Like especially against that competition. Now it's NHL hockey.

So you mentioned how the schedule gets easier. That's probably when they will run into a rough patch. because that's the way of the way it works. But I really enjoy what I've seen from them so far. Okay, here's a spicy one for you. It's about the Colorado Avalanche. Kobe says,

why is it so controversial to say that Quinn Hughes is the best defenseman in the league and has overtaken that position from Kel McCar? Over this season and last, Quinn is far better in terms of 5-1-5 results, and if you do the exercise of separating each of the defensemen from their respective first-line center,

it becomes even more obvious who's driving the success. Now, I think, we should say that Quinn was recognized as being the best of this position last year. Yeah, he won the Norris. I don't think it's, yeah. I do still think, and listen, Kelmachar has

19 points so far this season and yeah, 11 games. Flying around the ice and is doing everything he can to help drag that depleted avalanche lineup to as many wins as they can right now while they sort of survive this storm. I do still think, though,

it's a fair question because I think if you poll people, would still just by default say that Kail Makar is the best player of the position because of the way he moves, his resume, his accolades, the season he had, what, two or three years ago during that cup run season. And so I think that's still in the back of people's minds and probably kind of clouding their perception quite a bit. Like I'm not sure how many people other than people in this Vancouver market would probably definitively say that Quinn Hughes is the best player of the position, even though there's a ton of statistical evidence to suggest that. How do you feel about this and kind of the

two players and just where we're out with them right now and sort of the way, I guess, they're discussed or thought of at the top of their position. Yeah, I mean, I guess to me, it's kind of inarguable that over the last 93 games or whatever it's been, Quinn Hughes has been better than Kail McCar. I don't, I would have had Quinn Hughes pretty close to the top of my heart ballot last year. I thought he was the MVP of that Vancouver team. And, you know, that's a team that really surprised people. Whereas, you know, he doesn't play with Nathan McKinnon, like, stapled to his hip and, and that kind of thing.

Like you say, once you take away the, you know, it's tough to do WOWEs because, like, he might be playing against worst competition when he's away from the number one center and all that kind of stuff. But, yeah, I mean, you know, people have been flagging this for a while now. if you take McCar away from McKinn, and it's like, you know, 42% expected goals or whatever the number is. Like, it's not, it's not even like, oh, there, he gets worse. He gets like bad. And there was a game earlier this year where after the game,

McCar was like, I was embarrassing tonight, blah, blah, blah. And it's, you know, it's interesting because I always feel like there's a guy that they decide this, this guy should get MVP consideration at some sort of like clandestestine, clandestine meeting in August. And then regardless of outcomes, you know, a month into the season, we have to go, you know, we should actually get MVP consideration. And look, like you say, he's got 19 points. I'm not like saying Kail McCar is bad or anything like that.

Certainly not. But I definitely think Quinn has distanced himself from from McCar in the last two seasons. Yeah, like I said Yeah, like I said And change Yes, I think Playoff success Certainly carries an outsized impact

I will say also I think it takes people A long time to change their opinions Like we often see Especially not that it applies to this But like Former superstars Who are clearly at a different

part of their career People who just aren't really paying As much attention Still treat them as much Right? It's like oh, this guy is a bona fide superstar And it's like He hasn't been that for a few years

I think we need to revisit that And people are just reluctant and to really do so because it takes a lot of work. Hughes this year, I mentioned this on a recent podcast. His 5-15 numbers. Up 10-4, 63% high danger chances, 65% expected goal share. And as the listener pointed out,

when J.T. Miller or Elias Pederson aren't on the ice with him, those guys fall to below 40% shot share. Like, they just completely fall off a cliff, whereas Hughes is just fine, regardless of who he's playing with. McCar, to his credit, not only the 19 points, I think he's looked much better and healthier this year, despite, as you mentioned, not only did he go say he played poorly that one game, but he said that the team would have been better off if he hadn't played at all. And I think that was like, you're a bit too hard on yourself. And that's why these guys are great because they're so critical themselves. But he's up to 59%. Expect a goal shirt to his credit. Now, as Lillister pointed out, about two-third of those minutes are with McKinnon. And without him, all of those numbers across the board kind of plummet into the low 40s.

As you mentioned the WOWEs, the important context here, not that when Quinn Hughes is playing with the bottom six, he's playing with world beaters, but the talent golf in Colorado right now because of the injuries means that when McCar is not playing with McKinnon, his most common linemates other than the occasional Casey Middlestad minutes are like Kiviranta, Parker Kelly, Nikolai Koblenkovalenko. And not only is there a talent golf, but in particular, I think those guys generally can't play stylistically the way. Kayle McCar should play to be most successful, those like quick reloads and flying up the ice and attacking off the rush, whereas Quinn Hughes, I think, is probably a bit more suited to playing well with anyone because he's like so puck dominant in the cycle game and extending possessions and sort of doing all that heavy lifting himself. So I think that's an important thing here. But I also wanted to point out, I mentioned those names are Colorado. I sent you their lineup chart yesterday against Tampa Bay. That bottom six was one of the most outrageous lineups I've ever

seen for a team that isn't the San Jose sharks or Chicago Blackhawks over the past couple years. It's mind-blowing. The bottom six was Kovalenko, Kelly, Oliver Shillington, yes, that Oliver Shillington, the defenseman on their third line with Chris Wagner, T.J. Tidden and Matthew Steinberg as the fourth line. Yeah, I think it's almost impossible to evaluate Colorado on their top players just because of that. It's like there's only so much you can do with an hockey game, and that bottom six is just insane right now. So it sounds like they're going to get our tour

and then back soon, and I think once they get healthier, it'll look a lot different. So I think that's an important thing to note. Yep. Poor Ross Colton, though, hey? He scores the eight goals. What was it, six to eight weeks?

Six to eight weeks broke his foot. Brutal. The game before that, it looked like he broke his hand, and I was like, oh, man, here we go. And then he avoided a disaster, came back, then breaks his foot. The top line, left wing, curse.

the abs strikes again, unfortunately. It's unbelievable. Let's take our break here, and then we come back. We'll jump into it, and I get into a few other topics with Ryan Lambert. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. We're back here on the Hockey PEDEO cast, joined by Ryan Lambert today. R.L. Here's a question from me. I'm tossing my name into the ring here on the PDAO.

has Discord, and I'm going to ask you this. Does any team right now have worse vibes than the Boston Bruins? Right now, no, I don't think so. I think you could have said at, you know, earlier points in the season, maybe the savers or something like that. And I feel like the Red Wings were maybe getting there. But yeah, Boston is, it's kind of unbelievable how bad they've been and how the reaction to it has been like, we don't know what's going on. Oops, bye. Seven goals in their last five games. At 5-15 on the year, there's 26 in shots, 26 in high-anger chances, 25th in expected goals, and 25th in actual goals scored. I'm going to read you the most mind-blowing stat I've seen all season

that I think honestly deserves its own show, except it would just be a bunch of dead air or us just being flabbergasted, so it wouldn't make for the best podcasting content. But I'm going to read it to you here. Their leading scores at 5-15 this year are Cole Kepke and Mark Castellick with three apiece. They don't have anyone else in the team with, two five-on-five goals this season. David Pasternak,

Elaslin Holm, Brad Mershann, Pavel Zaka, and Charlie Coyle have combined for two five-on-five goals total between them in ten games. I just,

my mind is blown at that. I've never seen anything like these splits where Castellet-Leck-ke and Beecher have been on the ice for 10, 5-on-5 goals for, and their next forward is David Pasternak with three.

Like, it's just, yeah, it's almost unheard of. Yeah, what's crazy is we were talking about this on Puck Soup maybe two weeks ago, and these numbers really have changed very much. I was like, you know, you don't want to be in a situation with Cole Kepke and Mark Haslick are leading your team in five-on-five goals. And, you know, most of your best players have one or zero. In fact, all of them, I think, was and still is the number.

That's the thing that I don't, like, they're making almost no progress. on this front. And, you know, guys are yelling at each other on the bench in practice, you know, whatever. I think Marshand's response to getting yelled at, like, you know, when he talked about it in the media, was the correct one. Like, I deserve to be yelled at if I'm playing like this and blah, blah, blah. But, like, the yelling didn't seem to do anything. Still, you're still not putting up a lot of points or anything, big dog.

So I don't know if it's just, you know, we're going to chalk it all up to back. bad luck and that sort of thing. But like, you know, ask any Bruins fans. They're like, oh, maybe we need to sell everything. The underlying numbers stink. Like, I don't know what the answer is. And the problem is I think they don't either. Yeah.

And the issue is that I think there's a lot of talk heading into the season about, all right, well, they've clearly improved their defense as well, right? Like they spend a bunch of money, not only Zadorov, but Elias Lin-Holm's defensive value. a center and their defensive metrics are all in the bottom they're in the 20s as well if you look across the border as well. Marshaun you mentioned kind of his interaction with Montgomery there. I was watching the game against Philly. I know that he had the overtime winner against the Leaves previously, but like his movement at this point is just so far from what it used to be. And that was one of his best attributes, that motor. And it's like he's just kind of stumbling around

the ice. I clearly, I don't think it's necessarily all age related. He's clearly not a hundred 100% is a banged up. I was reading Elliot Friedman's most recent 32 thoughts. And his Bruins section, the gist of it was essentially they got broken by the Panthers. Like there are two games against them this year, just demoralize them. And it's like, man, I mean, that seems a bit too convenient, but also clearly the Panthers are just so in their head right now based on the track record and beating them again twice this year. Yeah, that's right. Like it's the track.

You know, it's the same thing the Bruins used to do the Leafs or it's just like, well, if it's Bruins, leaves you know who's winning that one. We don't even have to pretend. Like, just don't even have the game. Just say the Bruins 1-5-2, call it, you know, call it good. Everybody stay home. And and we're all set. And it's the same thing now with the Panthers where, like you said, totally in the Bruins head. Like, I don't think the ruins are on paper an appreciably worse team than the Florida Panthers. But if they're walking into every game, like, you know, I'm sure you watched that Amazon show where like Swamen and Kachuk were having a war of words or whatever. And like if that's how everybody on the Bruins is kind of reacting to the Panthers,

like it's no wonder they're, you know, they're more worried about like sucker punches and, you know, guys playing dirty or, you know, the perception that guys are playing dirty or whatever. And, you know, it's just, I hate to be like saying this kind of thing, but like their mindset just seems so messed up right now and it's finger pointing and it's yelling and you know but the number one thing to me maybe I'm crazy here but I think it really boils down to even though they went and got Lindholm this summer they still haven't addressed the whole we don't we never replaced burson and crates you think right like Charlie coil shouldn't be playing this many minutes for them and

on and on you go and that was true last year that's true this year and last year and last year they had two elite goaltenders, you know, and that covers up for a lot of issues. And this year they don't have two elite goaltenders. So here we are, you know. It's crazy to think where they'd be at this point, if not for that fourth line scoring as much as they did out completely out of nowhere. Like, it's, they'd be. Oh, I mean, they'd be, they'd be in Sharks territory. Yep.

I guess the only other team that can rival them in terms of vibes right now is maybe the Islanders, who have. Yeah, that's true. 21 goals in 10 games. I think the stats correct. They've scored one goal in their last 90 shots on goal. They've been out shot. Yes, that is the number I saw last night.

Yeah, they've been shut out four times in 10 games, and it could have been a fifth against Lucas Dostol earlier this week. They scored in the third period to make it 2-1. It seems like they're playing most of these games, much like last year to just try to get it to O.T and get at least the loser point. And I was watching their game against the Blue Jackets last night, and I was watching the Islanders feed. And they showed this interview Patrick Wohad, where he was asked by the media about splitting up Matt Barsall and Bull Horvatt.

And he had this analogy about how, like, you don't want to eat chicken every day. Sometimes you got to eat chicken with sauce instead. And I was like, what that? Okay. All right. So, yeah, the Islanders are in pretty tough shape. And I don't think it's surprising necessarily that they're struggling to score goals based on their personnel and everything we've been through with them over the past couple years. But I just wanted to note that, like, in terms of hopelessness right now,

especially offensively, I think they're the one team that rivals the Bruins in terms of like heading into every game, just wondering where the offense is going to come from. Yeah, and I mean, the other thing with the vibes is like it from, you know, seeing what Islanders fans have to say online and stuff like that, I'm not as like privy to all their, all the media coverage they get, but it, it really, really, really seems like Patrick Waugh can't stand Pierre Engval as a player. Yep. And, you know, I don't like, he's not like open revolt or anything like that.

But some of the quotes he's given about playing Engball since he was recalled because of the Duclair injury. Not, not, again, not encouraging for the vibes that, that, you know, he's saying like, yeah, I got to kind of play this guy. I don't really have a choice. And, you know, also like resigning Matt Martin, I think that's probably good for the vibes, honestly. but it's probably not good for the on-ice output or whatever you want to say. Yeah, and that's a good point because I actually did think DeClaric gave them quite noticeable juice offensively to start the year, and then him getting hurt was very unfortunate. Yeah, he was helping them quite a bit, so that's very unfortunate.

Yeah, it's tough. It's interesting because I think Islanders fans are generally, especially during the Trots years, and I think they were kind of proven right for the most part, like being very combative about the coverage of them and kind of talking down about their performance and then them finding ways to win and they obviously had a very successful run there. I think a lot of the Islanders fans that I've seen online have like started turning

on this team as well as like, man, this is just miserable. Like we cannot create anything. What is the plan here? What's the purpose? Is anything going to happen? So I think it's interesting to see how that's come as well. Let's, on the other side of things though, in terms of good vibes, the Columbus Bluejackets,

Boona Sweet here asks, what's happening with Columbus? Is Chinakov, Monty, Han and Marchenko the best line in hockey. Now, I've got some stats for you on that. I'm not going to go that far, but sure. Well, yeah, obviously in terms of we need a larger sample size

and certainly that's getting a bit hyperbolic. But man, their production so far this year has been off the charts. And in particular, I'll give you some stats on that. But how are we feeling about the blue jackets? Well, you know, we were talking about regression candidates.

You know, I don't think anybody's sitting here saying this is a playoff team or anything like that, but also, you know, kind of middling to subpar underlying numbers, you know, based on scoring chances and stuff like that. But they're shooting almost 14% and they have a 9-12 team save percentage at 5-on-5. I think both of those things will not last just based on, you know, what we understand to be their talent levels and things like that. And again, how regression works. but also like vibes wise,

how do you not love this? All these injuries, Johnny Godreau passing away over the summer, like they had every reason to just like slog through 82 games and just be like, you know, what can we do?

You know, there's, there's nothing for us to really try to accomplish here. We weren't expecting to be good anyway even before. all that stuff. You know, and now they're winning all these games. They're,

you know, they humiliated the Oilers the other night, the team that everybody thought was going to come out of the West. And, you know, how do you not love this? This is, this is so fun.

Like, it's really, really cool to see them doing this. I don't know that it's going to last, but this rocks. Yeah. If anyone deserves a feel good story, it's that.

And I think a very easy thing to root for, especially like, you know, Broncove and Jenner out at the start of the season and I was like, oh man, like even the players

I was excited to watch here are going to be out and then Kent Johnson plays really well early on and he gets a serious injury as well. Yet you mentioned they completely beat down not only the Oilers

but the Leaps as well. They put six goals on both of them. They put six on the Sabres and abs earlier this season as well. Clearly overinflated by the shooting percentage of particular. As you mentioned, I think they're actually first

at 5-15 shooting. I will say though, defensively, like they were such a mess the past couple of years in terms of just like leaking everything and just other teams. Totally. Kind of playing the way the habs are this year still. And under Dean Everson,

who's an actual NHL coach, like their underlying metrics have really improved there. They're giving up the fifth few of shots, 10th few as expected goals against. And that top line, which was kind of the basis of this question, here are the stats for you. 83 minutes for Chinikov, Monaghan,

and Marchenko, goal 7-2, shots 56 to 25, high danger chance is 22 to 8, and a 70% expected goal share at 5-15. When they play with Werensky, 55-15 minutes, shots 37 to 12, high danger chance is 13 to 2, and 77.6% expected goals. I really enjoy watching them. Obviously, those are just insane. Those are like power play numbers essentially that they have at 5-15. But the forecheck pressure, the speed off the wings with those two guys, and then Monaghan's

positioning and playing off of them, the creativity. I really enjoy it. I'm really glad that Dean Everson is, unlike Pascal Vincent, who kept just had this personal mission last year to just every time they'd play well with Voronkov, he'd be like, ah, I didn't like what I saw from them and split them up or take away their minutes. And Evanson is encouraging them and letting them run free and they're having a lot of success. Wrenzki's healthy and having a monster season. So you're right.

5-3-1 is probably in the high end in terms of results. But man, I really enjoy watching them play right now, and I'm really happy that they're enjoying the success they are. Yeah, I mean, when a team is not expected to be good, all you can hope for is that, you know, they have a couple of five, three and one stretches and they score a bunch of goals and they're fun to watch at the end of the day. You know, again, like, would it be better for them to pick first overall this year? Yeah, sure, it would, you know? But, like you said, if any team deserves to just have a nice October for once, it's these guys. So, you know, good. Yeah.

I'm happy for them. Yeah, any team that's not going to meaningfully compete is going to be better off picking first. And it's obviously never as black and white as that. I will say, though, like, considering how often they've picked in the top five or top 10 in the past handful of years and how they haven't really given those players a chance to really succeed because it's just been a miserable environment and poor coaching. I think this alternative is at least interesting to me where it's like, all right, well, if some of these guys develop, all of a sudden, maybe you don't get another first overall pick, but at least you're going to have young players who have a bright future. And so I think that's something that people can attach themselves to, I guess, and root for us.

So that's exciting. My last team that I wanted to talk about with you today, the Minnesota Wild, and in particular, Kirill Caprizov, because I was watching that game recently against the penguins where he just ripped them to shreds now. That's no large feat because anyone can rip the Pittsburgh Penguins to shreds these days, as we've documented. But he's having an unbelievable season. This Wild team is fun to watch. And I wanted to talk to you a little bit about them because I think they're starting to kind of, kind of. like open people's eyes and at least get them on board as like, all right, this is a good, fun team that isn't necessarily the Minnesota wild teams that we've thought of in the past.

Yeah, well, first of all, I guess the thing is like I, you know, they were obviously not great last year. But before that, you know, they were regularly making the playoffs with, with Caprizov and all that kind of stuff. And like, I think last year I would have chalked that a lot of that up to just like weird underperformance. It happens. Blah, blah, blah. This year, I think it's fair to say a little bit of overperformance.

But, you know, you want to talk about like MVP candidates after 10 games. It's kind of stupid to do that, I guess. But it's hard for me to argue that it shouldn't be. Like, season ends today for whatever reason. It's hard for me to say Carol Caprizov isn't the MVP of the league, right? without, you know, getting into a goalie who's, like, still 930 or whatever. He rocks. He's, again, so fun to watch.

And the cool thing about it is that, like, you know, this comes at a time when, I don't know if you remember over the summer, there was like a rumor. Oh, he wants to go to Chicago, blah, blah, blah. And, like, he's not even eligible to sign an extension in Minnesota, let alone, you know, be three. thinking about somewhere else. And, you know, this is, this is really great for Minnesota just because they needed that kind of bounce back. Like, we're going to be in this all season. It helps that Colorado's underperformed.

But like, how can you argue with the results so far? They've been really, really good basically, you know, all season. Yeah, there's six, one, and two now getting 936, the percentage of 515, helps. They did try to get all of the regression out of the way in one game last weekend against the Flyers where they just gave up every single goal pretty much. But I mentioned that they had a pretty soft schedule to start. And I think especially once you're like dealing with such a small sample like this where it's like, all right, it's the first month everyone's played 10 games. That has an outsized impact. Right. If you have like a bunch of either playing teams on back to

backs or later opponents, it's easier to bank points. To their credit, though they've played seven of nine games on the road, which I think is notable. And Caprizov in particular has the 18 points in nine games. The Wild have scored 23, 5-1-5 goals. He's been on the ice for 12 of them, so more than half. They have 34 goals overall. He's factored into 18 of them, which is more than half. He's got six straight multi-point games.

And here's the interesting thing that I'll be tracking. He's playing 2248 per game this year. Now, he played 1804 in game one. And since then, he's basically been playing. in the mid-20s. He's had four games out of what eight since then, where he's played 24 plus. Like they're just riding him

and how can you not? Considering the way he's playing and the chemistry as in particular, obviously, was Zuccarello after all these years. But now putting Marco Rossi on that line is really fun to watch and gives them a legitimately dynamic top line. So yeah, I think they're really fun to watch right now.

And I'm curious, especially within the hierarchy of that central division, right? You kind of listed off some of those teams, the Jets, as we talked about, I've been banking a ton of points. It's looking suddenly very competitive because I do think that despite Colorado struggles by mid-season, they're going to look much more like themselves.

They'll be fine. Nashville certainly as well, despite some of our concerns, it's going to be, you know, they've already kind of righted it with this 3-0-N-1 stretch or whatever they're on. And so that central is, other than, I guess, the occasional game against Chicago, like there's no really easy outs there, right?

Like, it's going to be a pretty hard fought one, I think. Yeah, I totally agree. And again, all you can do is bank points. Like I, especially because of all the college hockey I watch, like there's a huge, there's such a much bigger gap between like good teams and bad teams in college hockey that when a good team plays a bad team and then they win like six to one, a lot of people go, well, they were supposed to win. It's like, yeah, but you're not supposed to be teams like six to one. You're supposed to win four to two or something like that. And so when like I still give teams credit for beating the brand.

breaks off, you know, a team that they're much better than. And, you know, I think that, like, Minnesota has for the most part done that, right? And like you said, they just wrapped like a seven-game road trip, something like that. So to open with two at home and then hit the road, and I think, well, they must have only had the one regulation loss in a seven-game road trip. Like, that's as good as you can hope for. and they're just banking points. Every point's going to matter so much in this division

and in the West in general just because like same thing with Colorado. Like I think Edmonton's going to kind of catch up to the pack there and like it'll as everybody predicted, it'll be some order of Vegas, Vancouver, Edmonton, L.A. in that division. And you're competing against, you know, the fourth best team for in that division for a wildcard.

too if you're you know if you if you slow down even a little bit so 14 points from from nine games that's basically all you all you can really ask for and like you say if they're fun to watch on top of that big salute all the credit in the world yes all right we we're gonna get out here all you plug some stuff on the way out what do you want to tell the listeners about yeah go to elite prospects. You can find all kinds of coverage. I do a lot of college hockey, as I was just mentioning, and NHL coverage, of course. And, you know, we're only like a month and a half out from World Juniors, and there's top prospects games coming up and all that kind of stuff. Like, elite prospects is the place to get coverage for all of that. And then Patreon.com

slash puck soup. If you want the bonus episodes for my podcast, and, you know, I feel like people know what Puck Soup is, so I don't super feel the need to plug that. but listen to Puck Soup too, I guess. I don't know. Yes, yes. Another hockey podcast. One of the only ones out there. It's the PDOCast and Puck Soup.

All right, buddy, this is great. Good to finally have you on this season. My blogs are smash that five-star button where if you listen. Get into the PDAGast Discord, which we shouted out today. We took some questions from there. We're going to continue doing that as we go along this season.

So if you're not in there, join us where you can have your voice heard and just be part of the conversation. It's a really fun time in there. That's all for today. Thank you for listening to us. and we'll be back tomorrow with more of the Hockey Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.