The Hockey PDOcast - Revisiting our preseason predictions

Episode Date: October 25, 2022

Dimitri welcomes in PDOcast regular Andy MacNeil from VSiN Live as they revisit some of their preseason NHL predictions from a gambling perspective and what they can make of the play across the league so far.This podcast is produced by Dominic Sramaty. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitry Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PTO cast. My name is Dmitri Filipovich. And joining me on today's show is my good pal, Andy McNeil. Andy, what's going on, fellow? Hey, nothing. Just gap in the NHL as usual.

And I'm trying to make my way through this busy Tuesday. But liking what I'm seeing so far. It's been a fun start of the season. It has, yeah. So we had a blast chatting a couple weeks ago. We had a, we had Dom on and we bounced around some ideas back and forth. It was right before the season was set to kick off for real on the first busy night of action. And so I wanted to have you back on now that we've had about two weeks worth of games to catch up on some stuff here. I thought it would be a useful exercise for us today to kind of just bounce around the league and talk about some relevant trends we've noticed from the first two weeks, how much of it were buying, kind of stuff we've noticed and all that good stuff. So here's the first thing I want to talk about. how much the market has adjusted to teams based on the preseason expectations we had for them, acknowledging that I think pretty much everyone right now, the Blues have been the straggler, they're up to four games now, the sharks are up top playing eight games so far. So everyone's played at least around five or six games. How quick is too quick in terms of like adjusting our priors and accepting what we're seeing so far this season? So I'd be lying if I said I didn't make little weeks, you know, in the early parts of the season.

But for the most part, I'm lying totally on my preseason projections to make predictions now. And a good example of that was on Monday, the Washington Capitals played the New Jersey Devils in New Jersey. And when I originally saw the odds for this game, the Devils were listed as, as a minus 125 favor. We didn't know who the starting goaltender was for either team, but more importantly, the Capitals with this drop-off from Darcy Kemper to Charlie Lindgren. But even with that unknown, I had to do a double take. I thought the odds were backwards.

And that's for me because I had Washington, as you know, pegged as the second best team in the Metropolitan Division, and not really trending in the right direction so far over the first couple of weeks here. Nothing has happened yet. I don't think we've learned enough about any team really to kind of do an about face on any preseason predictions just yet. But I see that opportunity, and I do have some concerns with how the devils have been playing and whatnot. They're, you know, grading out is one of the best teams in the league, you know, through the lens of a lot of modern hockey statistics, expected goals. They're right up there at the top.

But I'm relying on my priors totally. And that's why I maybe had a little bit of a tougher time reading the market, because I do think the market is a little bit quicker to react than I am. But in my experience, I think it's best if you, you know, give yourself 10 to 15 games before you start to, you know, jump to any conclusions or draw any real insight from what we've seen over the course of the season so far. Yeah, I was going to say there, I think statistically you'd ideally like to see somewhere between 20 and 25 games in a best case scenario, just to feel confident about the size of the sample you're working with, make sure you're ironing out. But the point of what I'd make was I feel like, you know, sometimes you just don't necessarily have the luxury of sitting back and waiting for 25 games to confirm. otherwise you're going to be late to the party a little bit or you're going to miss out on some great

opportunities totally yeah you're you're exactly right on that um and there's a balance there everybody's a little bit different uh for me um you know i i'll i'll act a little bit quicker on on some teams that like we talked i think we we we talked about how you know heading into the season um last time we we chatted about this um you know there are certain teams that you're a little bit more confident in in terms of what type of team they are, your projection. And there are other teams like the doubles, for example, that you're not as confident in because of the injury problems last year, the goal pending issues, things like that.

So I'd be a little bit quicker to, yes, this team is really good. I thought they were going to be one of the best teams in the league this year, and they are, you know, whereas I might get a little bit more apprehensive to do that or to act a little bit quick with a team like Buffalo or New Jersey, but still you've got to stay on your toes, right? Yes, definitely. The second trend or the second kind of idea that I want to bounce off of here is we know that scoring has gone up yet again, right?

I believe teams are averaging just over 3.2 goals per game so far, which is the highest total we've seen since 1993, 994. Part of that is, you know, we have a league-wide average of 9-03. resale percentage, which is the lowest we've seen since 0506 when it was 9-01, and that year should almost be thrown aside just because it was the year after the lockout and the league was enforcing all of these new rules where they were just artificially inflating everything with them on a number of penalties they were calling. And we know that at the start of every season, the referees really cracked down on everything and make sure they're calling everything just so

they kind of set the boundaries of what's acceptable and what is it. And as the year goes along, it becomes looser yet again, especially as we trend towards the playoffs. But I guess my question is part of that increase in scoring is there's some sort of like an effect, you know, along the lines of a rising tide lifts all boats from a game environment where we're seeing the teams are never really out of it, right? We're seeing more blown leads or teams coming from behind than we ever have in the past. And so I guess it might be more from a live betting perspective in terms of when you're looking at games as they're happening if a team jumps out to a quick two nothing lead or a three one lead or something like that, whether there's an opportunity to jump on that. Or is it something that you also need to be factoring in before games are starting, acknowledging that this is almost an entirely different sort of game setting than we've really seen in the past? Well, you definitely have to be factoring in the scoring aspect.

I mean, if you know, if you're handicapping a game and trying to surprise a game in the same manner that bookmakers do, which is what I do every day, you know, there's going to be a difference. a team's chances of winning the game will be a little bit different depending on, you know, the expected numbers of goals in that game. So, you know, there's a big difference between a seven and a six and a half and a six, right? So that does change things quite a bit and you have to be factoring that in. If I was, you know, even if I had a pretty good handle on the team strengths, you know, across the league, if I was to handicap the NHL in 2022, 23, the way I did in, in, in, in, in, you know,

2020, I would be behind because, you know, because scoring is way up, right? So that's definitely something to take into account. But you're right on the lead, the rallies. It's definitely intriguing from a live betting angle. But, you know, as a pre-game better, I do most of my betting prior to puck drop. It's been pretty frustrating. and my results have lined up as a whole across the league.

I think about 20% of the game so far have seen teams rally from a multi-goal deficit to, you know, win, actually go on to win the game. And that's about the rate at the teams that I bet on have been blowing leads. So it's been really frustrating from that perspective. Yeah, I believe our pal friend of the show here,

Cam Chiron, and this was on Saturday, so there's been a couple days worth of games since then. But he had it at 3rd. had been 50, two goal leads that have been taken in the first 40 minutes of any NHL games so far the season, and just under a half of them, that trailing team had fought back to tie at least at some point, which kind of reflects that yo-yo effect. But, you know, I think part of it is teams are generally playing faster. I think there's fewer shifts involving players who aren't at least some sort of threat to score. The increase in power plays to start the season. I think teams

in general are just are playing more off the rush. Like you were mentioning the devils there earlier, They're the ultimate team in terms of attacking off the rush, creating themselves, but then they're giving back on the other end of the ice as well. And so it's leading to more goals, leading to more goal changes. I guess the question that I have following up. I'm just going to say that really shows up here in the market. Yeah. The Devils and Detroit Red Wings game. It's the only game on the board right now with a seven total, right?

Yeah, I would, I mean, even that I feel like I would need even higher to feel comfortable betting. that under just because it feels like both those teams could, you know, the Red Wings are missing some offensive weapons up front. But, you know, these Devils games, I feel like any number of goals you could tell me happen. And I'd be like, all right, that, yeah, that checks out, both from them scoring themselves and also what they're conceding. But I guess the question for me is, you know, is this change now, if this is kind of the new norm? Is this finally going to be what forces teams to play less conservatively, especially when they go up early? Like a point of contention for us for so long has been this idea of score effects in terms of teams taking their foot off

the gas pedal going up and then all of a sudden changing the way they play where whether it's you know they're they're they're changing their deployment where all of a sudden playing more defensively oriented players and not necessarily playing their top guys or kind of just dumping the puck changing trying to block shots and they say do it all over again as opposed to just play in their natural game i wonder if a net positive for all this beyond the fact that it's fun when there's a lot of goals and it feels like a game is never over if it could kind of trickle down to all right now teams are actually going to acknowledge

that a lead isn't safe when you're up halfway through the second period and you actually just need to keep playing your way and I think if that is the case, I'm still skeptical that it will be because teams are so rooted in their ways but if it is, I think that would be a huge boon for the NHL. I'm extremely skeptical that there

will be a wholesale change when it comes to trying to clamp down multi-goal leads. I think it's like you said, it's just such a different game now in that respect. And I think that the players and the teams feel that. I mean, you even saw on Monday in New Jersey, Washington went up by four goals, five one after 40 minutes, and they really took their foot off the gas in the third period. Of course, New Jersey

made the goaltending change, taking McKenzie Blackwood out, putting DTEC Dana check in. And, you know, I tend to think just on a kind of, you know, I test level, I think that gives a boost to a team a lot of the time. Your coach is telling you, hey, this game isn't over. I'm putting the backup in for our our second goal tender in for a reason. And I think you do get the juices flowing a little bit. But being down four goals at the start of the third, they scored two relatively quick goals. And you can see that there's life in the team in the building where that probably wouldn't have been the case, you know, a decade ago. Even cutting a four-goal lead in half wouldn't have really, wouldn't have really got things going because, you know, we were

still sort of in that golden age of goal-tending, right? And I don't think we're in that anymore, obviously, and I think that has really changed the attitudes. And, you know, maybe I've always felt that the regular season, because it's the regular season, and when you're down by maybe not two goals, but three, four,

five goals, to be, you know, incentivize yourself to really lay it all out there like you would in the playoffs. But with the game changing like it has, I definitely think there could be a shift, you know, that, hey, we're not out of it. So you could see a lot, a lot more of this in the future for sure. Yeah, I would love that.

You know, the NHL, it's the focus of the show, obviously, and so we kind of harp on it, but I think it applies to every sport. Like, yesterday I was watching the Monday Night Football game, and I was down big in my fantasy football matchup, and I had Justin Fields, the bear's quarterback left, and I was like, all right, I need a real, real long shot here. I need a huge performance from him, and he comes out in the first half, and he puts up all these points, and it kind of gives me a sense of hope. but because the bears were up, I was almost drawing dead because the entire second half was just handing off the ball and running out the clock.

And I felt like there was an actual, you know, you couldn't, my projection at halftime was actually giving me, you know, some of that hope. But what it wasn't factoring in was the scoreboard and the fact that they had no real incentive to actually, you know, keep up with their normal output. So it was just basically the type of game setting I was drawing dead at that point. And so, yeah, I felt that frustration of kind of how those score effects can affect things. Yeah, the game script matters. regardless of what sport you're betting on or play, whether it's fantasy sports or sports betting, the game script definitely matters how things play out.

All right, next topic I've got, waiting on regression. So, you know, we see a team like the Minnesota Wild, for example, and me, you and Dom talked about this the first time we spoke, and we were pretty optimistic about, or at least I was, and I think Dom was as well as the number one Minnesota Wild fan. We were optimistic on Minnesota's outlook this season on the fact that they'd be just fine after losing Kevin Fiala. And so far this season, it's pretty clear that defensively they haven't been able to stop anything. They've given up 27 goals against in just five games.

Now, the logical part of your brain is looking at that and saying, okay, well, they have an 8-46% so far. Those 27 goals they've given up have been on around 17 expected goals against Worth, according to Natural Statrix. So even if they are suddenly the worst goal-tending team and Mark Andrea Flurry is completely done and, you know, they're going to miss Cam Talbot badly. You'd still look at that and go, okay, logically, no one's going to finish with an 846A percentage. So we should be expecting this to turn around and you kind of want to be along for the ride while they have these performances that eventually kind of write the ship and get those numbers back to normal. At the same time, watching this team, it really feels hopeless on a nightly basis right now that that's going to happen in real time. will probably happen over a longer stretch of games. It's not just going to happen with back-to-back shutouts most likely.

But, you know, I guess that is an interesting component of this, the sort of the rational perspective, okay, these numbers have to rebound, whereas the bias perspective of watching these games and feeling like it won't happen. Well, yeah, and, you know, I feel that the market really hasn't come down too hard on the wild yet. I mean, I think the betting market as a whole probably has a similar outlook, a similar mindset when it comes to where this team is going to go. Things aren't going to be this bad forever. Plus, I still think from a betting perspective,

if you're trying to look at things like that, it's like a dangerous game to be playing because they're still being priced on a game-to-game basis as if they are an elite team. and maybe they are. But, you know, if this continues this spiral, it's a good way to go broke, I guess. But maybe, maybe, you know, I'm sure Dom is going down with the ship. I know he was really high on the wild, but I was kind of, I guess, his medium on them, neutral when, you know, comparing to the betting market. And when I think back on it, like, I really have a hard time explaining other than, hey,

my model says this. I really have a hard time explaining why the wilds are projected to be so much better than everybody else outside of Colorado, right, in the, in the Central Division. So, you know, on a gut feel level, I'm really not surprised to see this, especially, you know, with what we've seen at America, Andre Fleury, the last little bit. So I'm really, like, I don't ever lock myself into betting, only betting against the team, not betting on them. I'm not like that, but the wilder one team that I'm kind of only really looking to bet against right now, given the way they're being priced on a game-to-game basis and their goal-ending issues. And their underlying metrics, which are not strong.

They were a top defensive team for as long as we can remember, and now they're not. So it's going to be interesting to see where it goes, but you're definitely concerned right now, especially when you've got skin in the game on a game-to-game basis. Well, here's the thing. 27 goals against over any five game sample is pretty extreme and worrying. I do wonder how much of it is the fact that these are the first five games. You know what I mean? Like if this was happening in the middle of the season,

let's say they were going along their normal trajectory, I think it'll be much easier to kind of chalk this up as, okay, well, this is just kind of a weird, whether it was a schedule-based or whether it was, okay, you know, they haven't been practicing much or this and that. There's any number of excuses you can make, whereas, you know, you come out of the gate and this is the first performance we have.

have and it goes back to our conversation where we were saying okay how many games do we need before we feel like we can discard our priors and buy into this as the new reality for this team i'm still not there yet just because i feel like there's just no way that they're going to be getting 846 say percentage from their goalies the rest of the way and they're going to be this bad with the personnel they have acknowledging the losses they had over the off season it still feels like there has to be some sort of middle ground and considering how much they're producing offensively themselves i feel like that is much more sustainable. So I feel like there has to be some

sort of turning on the corner here, and I think it will happen. Oh, yeah, I agree with you, but things, you know, from a gambling perspective, you look at where they sit in terms of even strength shot at 10 percentage and

even strength expected goals share according to evolving hockey. They're right there with the Canadian, so they're in Montreal playing the Canadians on Tuesday. I don't think the Canadian are a good bet, but I certainly don't think the wild are a good bet up around minus 200 in that range, right, given that they're not playing anywhere close to that minus 200 team, especially on the road.

And, you know, Montreal, you know, kind of up and down start that we've seen out of them. They were one of the best offensive teams in the second half of last season. So there is some good stuff here, right? So this is the type of game that definitely worries me. Just kind of on a gut-feel basis. But then I check my numbers. And wild, while there might be like some maybe small value on them, on a game-to-game basis in situations like this,

just really hard to lay those big numbers with a very little return coming back, right? Have you been getting involved in any coyote's action so far? Because I know they were sort of a trendy, I think part of it was just, you know, being involved in the bit. And it worked out, obviously, when they wanted to beating the Toronto Maple Leaf plays was the only one they've had so far. season. You know, they've been outscored 26 to 13 in their five games and they have a 31% expected goal share as a team. So as bad as that goal differential is, it almost feels earned at

this point. You know, watching the games, there was the game against Ottawa Senators, I believe, where they come out, and similar to the Canadians game as well, where it starts and instantly right off pock drop, you just know the game is over. I think there's going to be some stronger performances, especially, you know, once they get back. at home and we'll see how that whole mice advantage plays for them this season and in this such a unique setting. But I'm always curious about

that because I've had a lot of discussions with our pal Robozola about this over the years in terms of, you know, when your model or when your when your projection for a game says, okay, this line is just too good. You know, people are either so down on this team or, you know, it just feels like

I got to jump on this because the odds say so, but then you're looking at it and you're thinking, okay, do I really want be stuck with a serious investment here on this Arizona Cowities team acknowledging what they've looked like so far the season and the fact that I could wind up regretting it like literally as soon as the puck drops. Yeah, I think there are definitely methods that would lead you to believe there's value on the Arizona Coyotes in every

single game. I know there are hockey handicappers out there that can't kind of get past that that that 70% threshold or whatever it is, right? And they can't fathom a team being as big of a favorite as some of these teams are over the last couple of of seasons. But, you know, it's a team like Arizona. You're tough, but like I think you've got to pick your spots. They've won one game out of the five this year, but they made, made their backer so much money in that spot against Toronto that even if you had bet a hundred dollars on every game and lost the other four, you'd still be up 25 bucks right now, right? Like, so that's, you know,

it's the kind of you're only going to win what 20 games and that's probably extremely generous right like I don't know so if you're if you're if you're betting on the coyotes often you're going to lose off and you're going to cut into that that potential profit but they're definitely our spots they can sneak up on teams and you know maybe they won't be the the most obvious ones where it's the hey this team's on a back-to-back

and they're playing Arizona and they've had a couple of days off and things like that, but, you know, maybe they can sneak up on a team that might be looking past the coyotes onto a stretch of three or four tougher games that are coming up and things like that, like the Maple Leafs probably were or probably are all too often, right? So, yeah, I mean, it's, it's, it's, there's a fine line between, you know, finding that value and just, just throwing, you know, what at the wall and hoping something sticks every, every, second night. Yeah, I guess, you know, tying it back to our initial conversation about it feeling like, okay,

no lead is safe or at least this team has a chance at bouncing back here and getting back in this game, weirdly it feels like with this coyote's team as deplorable as they've been defensively, at least they have a little bit of fight offensively to them. You know, they score those 13 goals in five games. It feels like with a team like the Sharks, for example, yeah, they scored 15 times in eight games so far. And I'm surprised the total is even that high because watching these games, it's felt like pulling teeth that sometimes is trying to see them create offense.

And it's bizarre because they do still have some players there that are high-end offensive players. But as a team, as a collective, based on the way they've been playing, it's been such a rough watch so far. And if anything, it makes you feel, okay, less certain that they can actually bounce back if they go down two-nothing here, whereas least with the coyotes, there's a bit of chaos involved. Totally, yeah. And maybe the coyotes are that team that you want to keep an eye on in the live markets, right? I mean...

Well, I wouldn't go that far. Let's not get crazy. No, I'm just, you know, I mean, it's, hey, I'm not going to bet on the coyotes very much. I'm just trying to be nice here. Yeah, yeah, certainly. All right, Andy, well, I've got a number of other topics here that I want to get to with you. But I think we should take a break here and put up in the conversation. And then when we come back, we're going to pick things back up.

We're here with Andy McNeil on the Hockey-Pedio cast on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here. the Hockey PEOCast with Demetia Filipovich and my guest Andy McNeil today, Andy, I'll give you the option as the guest for what you want to talk about next. You want to talk about player availability and how it impacts lines, especially for individuals, whether it's starting goalie or whether it is a star player being in and out of the lineup, Hohmice Advantage or officiating. I'll let you pick any of those three in terms of which one kind of moves the needle the most.

Oh, man, you're putting me on the spot. We could talk about them all, but I will pick. your the first one you gave me, the player availability and how that impacts the market. Yeah, all right, give it to me.

What are your thoughts on it? Because I know, you know, there's some school of thought that starting goalie doesn't necessarily, for the most part, matter that much, and you kind of want to jump on that line before. I know there's other people

that get incredibly frustrated when they're waiting for the team to announce that, especially if their shenanigans in terms of first goalie off the ice and who's starting and the team kind of withholding it until they come out before the game. So, you know, you could argue certainly that the starting goalie has the biggest impact on it. I know that in terms of skaters, especially for forwards, considering how little ice time they actually eat up,

I think the impact on these lines is probably significantly less than a fan would think based on how much they value that player's talents. For goaltenders, I think it's fine if you want to, as a sports better, if you want to go with the idea that it doesn't really matter all that much, who is in goal. I know there are people out there that think like that, but the market believes that it matters. And, you know, because of that, I, like, I made a mistake on Monday. I bet the Washington Capitals at around plus 105, maybe closer to plus 110, assuming Darcy Kemper was the, you know, favorite to start in that game. I knew. it was a possibility that Charlie Lindgren could get the start. But I had such a big edge or a big perceived edge on the capitals

that I had to gamble early and just hope for the best. And, of course, I didn't get the goaltender that I wanted. It was Lindgren in goal on Monday, and the market moved against me swiftly. So I could have gotten better odds on the Washington Capitals against the Devils if I had waited. But, you know, I think that's all the proof that people need, right there as far as, you know, why it matters. You know, you might not think it matters,

but people that influence the odds on a day-to-day basis do, and, you know, your betting will suffer if you don't kind of respect that. So I think goaltenders are definitely important. There's a lot of anticipation out there on a day-to-day basis. I think people look ahead. I know I do. I look ahead, you know, as much as I can. I think, you know, Tuesday was a good example with Tampa Bay,

playing the first half of a back-to-back against L.A. They've got Anaheim on Wednesday. I was hoping for Brian Elliott, so I could have incentive to bet the Kings as a home underdog before the market shifted towards them, but it's going to be Vasilesky, right? So, you know, like, now the market knows that Brian Elliott will likely start on Wednesday,

and that will be reflected overnight into game day tomorrow. So everybody that's waking up tomorrow and realizing like, oh, hey, Vasiliski played last night. It's going to be the backup tonight. I'm going to bet the ducks. It's already been priced in, right? You're too late. So there's definitely a huge, you know, level of importance to who's starting goal,

whether you think so or not. It's funny because you pick the exact same, the exact two examples that I would have thought of for why it matters and doesn't matter from an actual perspective, right? Like, I would say the drop off from Vaselowski to Brian Elliott is about his extreme. as you're possibly going to find in the NHL and has been for a while now with whoever Tampa Bay's backup goalie has been since they basically punted that position and just spent the league minimum on it. But I was going to say that, you know, I would argue that the gap between Darcy Kemper and Charlie Lindgren beyond, I guess, just name value and the Stanley

Cup title run this past year for Darcy Kemper and the contract they received this offseason. I know certain goalie of alliers are like, oh, the gap between them probably from a talent perspective at this point actually isn't that big. But you're right, in terms of the price you're getting and the way the market perceives it, I guess you would have been better off if you just waited until you found out. Charlie Lindgren was very lucky to only allow three goals in that game. Yeah, just for Brad fan on a couple of Jack Hughes dimes, and that's kind of been a common theme for Jack Hughes so far the season.

But yeah, as far as players go, I mean, the obvious candidates, they move the line, a lot. But, you know, it matters if the market moved really, really swiftly against the Pittsburgh Penguins when it was announced that Jake Gensel was going to be out over the weekend. So, you know, he's maybe not necessarily a superstar, but he still moves the market pretty significantly and enough that it would, you know, I still bet the Penguins and won. It was the night that they played the Blue Jackets. But I definitely think that it was pretty surprised just to see how much the market moved.

Well, let's take the Buffalo Sabres for as an example here or as kind of a thought exercise. So, you know, if you've been on the Buffalo Sabres so far this season, you have been incredibly profitable because they've done remarkably well, especially in settings that you'd think they wouldn't going on the road through Western Canada. I just did a full deep dive on them on the most recent PDO cast. so I don't necessarily want to regurgitate everything here.

But I do think from this angle, it's an interesting thing to consider because they're down essentially to top four defensemen. Now there, Mitya Samuelson and Yehnevi-Royuki Haru, who if you were to pick from a name brand perspective or in terms of what the, maybe the market or what the consensus would think, are the least kind of glamorous or least needle-moving players on that blue line. But the trickle-down effect of that is now all of a sudden, you know, you have Iliya Lvushkin jumping up to the top pair to play. with Rosma's Dahlene. You have Jacob Bryson going from a third pair role, which he's much better suited for it, all of a sudden now having to play significantly tougher minutes alongside Oen Power in the top four. And this is where you get into that issue of what depth or what injuries can do to the depth from the perspective of, okay, now all of a sudden players need to move up the lineup and maybe the position they were well suited for in terms of their

skill set before. Now they're getting stretched a little thin, and then that's where I think you can get into danger as a team. Now, I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I've been making bank on the Sabres since the season started. I haven't. But if you did bet $100 on all five Sabres game, you'd be up $583 right now. That's pretty good, right? So I think, you know, it's, you've got to, you've got to kind of see what happens with America here with teams like this. Like Buffalo caught everybody off guard. There was the potential for them to be very, very, you know, an interesting team this season. I talked to some people prior to the season that were really,

really adamant on them being, you know, filling that kind of underdog role like the senators have in years past and whatnot. But they go on this incredible run through Western Canada. I got them on the tail end. I was able to best them to beat Vancouver on Saturday at plus 165. On Tuesday morning, sportsbooks were listing them at even money in Seattle. Seattle versus the Cracken, meaning you win $1 for every dollar that you bet on the Sabres. And that stuck out to me immediately as a sucker bet.

And my model confirmed those suspicions, and so did the markets. The odds move towards Seattle throughout the day. And don't get me wrong, I think this is a winnable game for the Sabres, but the things that you mentioned, you know, the lineup news, you know, regarding some of their defensemen, it's just really not a great spot. to be buying on a team like the Buffalo Sabres. You've got to kind of know when to back off. And if you don't

have a model or some kind of system to tell you when to back off, you really got to rely on your intuition and kind of maybe compare the odds from game to game. You know, is Vancouver that much better than a team like Seattle that they should have been priced that much higher? I want to go ahead and

tell you the answers that I is no. Yeah. So, you know, so when you see that, you know, that huge difference from one game to the next, it's a huge signal that the market has not only caught up to the favors, but probably at this point is inflating their odds of winning a given game. And maybe you want to back off. And sometimes it's going to be tough to do so.

They might win a couple of games or a few more games on this little streak here, and you'll feel like you missed out. But it's a long season, and you don't have to continue to bet on the same teams over and over and over again. Throughout the season, it has a sports better. I think we're always like, if you're doing it right, we're always buying and selling teams. You know, I don't, if I think a team is undervalued, I'm going to bet on them. If I think that same team is overvalued, I'm going to bet against them. And that's the plan every single night of the season, right?

So, yeah, the sabres are an interesting case. If they continue to play like this, there might not be a lot of great opportunities throughout the rest of the season to bet on them. they might become a bit of an overrated team, right? So we'll see where it goes. Yeah, is there something to the idea of teams kind of becoming trendier, or especially if they go off on a streak like this where everyone seems to be kind of taking stock? I mean, I just did a full, full PDO cast devoted to the Buffalo Sabres.

I've certainly taken stock. I'm watching them. And, you know, my take on it went well beyond just the wins and losses or what the edge should be for their games. It was more so okay, I really like how these young players are playing, the way they're looking. They've been really fun to watch, and it was more so of that. But then you have a team like the Flyers, for example, where they, you know, they start the year, I believe, four and one.

They just most recently got shut out by the sharks. So that kind of put a bit of a damper on it, but you watch the games and you're like, okay, there's no way from a true talent perspective where if you replay these games 100 times, they're going to win four out of five of these based on the way they play at a significant percentage of a time. You know, they're coming back from behind. They're leaning on Carter Hart to a ridiculous degree where I think he leads the league in goal save above expected. All of their metrics are in the low 40. and so you're looking at that and you're saying, okay, you know, this team is exceeding our expectations because at the start of the year,

I thought they might be in the race with the Black Oaks and the coyotes for worst team in the league. They're clearly going to be at least more competent than that, but the four and one is pretty clearly an outlier based on how good this team actually is. Yeah, I mean, I think you can look at it, like in a positive way and say, well, you know, they've had some pretty lousy injury luck even before the season started with Sean Gutier,

and his back problems. then Camackinson hasn't been playing much. Now JVR is due for surgery, right? So you can look at it in a positive way, like, hey, if they can continue to, you know, pick up some wins and then they get their best players back, then maybe they'll be a competent team. But, you know, as of right now, the betting market does not care whatsoever. The Flyers, I shouldn't say that.

There's been a little bit of a shift, but the Flyers' odds of making the playoffs prior of the season starting on October 7th were plus 850. They moved roughly 4.5% to around 5 to 1. Their odds of winning the division, they're sitting in third place right now, and their odds of winning the division have went from 100 to 1 to 1.75 to 1. That's like 1% to 1.3%. So, you know, there's no worry at all on the part of bookmakers here. I don't think there's been any shift in the perception of the team.

But, yeah, I mean, if you looked at it, if you looked at the Flyers with an open mind, I guess, to start the season and maybe looked at some of the teams that they were playing as being overrated, you might have done all right. I know there was people that came into the season, like with the strategy of I'm going to bet on the Philadelphia Flyers because I really don't think they're going to be as bad as people thought they were, thought they're going to be and that paid off for them. Yeah, yeah, I guess so. the only other teams here that I had a note on before we kind of got into a more bigger picture conversation about, you know, giving no picks and kind of talking about this stuff on a platform like this. You know, I had the Bruins because I remember I brought them up. I just didn't know what to expect from whenever you shift coaches, what amount of impact

we should assign to that. And going from Bruce Cassidy or Jim Montgomery, basically it seems like there's been no difference. And like, you know, there's strong defensive numbers have carried over. there's still an elite 5-15 team, although underlying metrics are passing the test. So it seems like we kind of got our answer there. And then, you know, I guess the inverse of that for the stars,

they did get a significant difference, and it's a massive improvement. It's exactly what we're hoping for, where they've all become a top-ten offensive team and completely unleash their players the way we were hoping we'd see. So I guess we're kind of seeing both ends of that from how a coaching change can not really have much of a difference or actually make a significant positive one.

Yeah, I mean, I'm a little more optimistic, though, what I'm seeing in a Boston, simply because, you know, they've still got two all-star players to bring back into their lineup. And so, you know, there's some pretty good signs here that they're not even close to hitting their full potential off to a great start. But, you know,

I don't really think we've learned much about any of the teams, like I said. And Dallas is kind of one that I'm curious about. I wasn't high on them to start the season. And as I said, I still rely pretty heavily on my preseason predictions to make bets here at this point in the season. So I'm on the Bruins on Tuesday.

It's a small bet. It's nothing crazy around minus $150, you know, like $75 to win $50 kind of best. And it's, you know, not something I'm feeling great about, but with just where I had the Bruins coming into the season, even with the injuries and where I had the stars. I like the Boston Bruins in this spot. Jake Ottinger got the night off in Ottawa, which probably explains why they lost to the senators

and he'll give them a better chance of winning a game on the second half of a back-to-back. But, yeah, I'm just not ready to buy in here. I think we've seen they got the predators coming back from that European trip. Obviously, that worked out pretty well for them with a 4-1 to 5-1 win. Then they get a win over the jets,

but then they head out on the road. They lose to the Maple Leafs. you know, they beat the Canadians, they lose the senators. Of course, Scott Wedgwood started two of those games, so that that has to be taken into account. But, yeah, I'm not entirely sold on a team like the Stars, that's for sure. I'm going to push back on that. I think we should be buying on the Stars.

Just because I would say that unless, you know, without kind of irrespective of this upcoming game against the Bruins, of course, I'm just talking about from a bigger picture perspective. I think we can almost completely eliminate our priors. for this team just because it's very clear that a lot of the issues with them in terms of deployment in terms of how conservative they were whenever they got any sort of lead where they were the worst team in the league in that regard last year can pretty clearly be directly attributed to you know the coaching rig bonus was doing for them last year and pete dabor comes in and they've

significantly overridden basically every single one of those things they're playing an entirely different brand of hockey acknowledging that it's five or six games or whatever i just think like from from seeing the way they're playing i think what they're playing i think what they're did last year has nothing to do with this current team, I would say. Yeah, I wouldn't go so far. I mean, for me, like, I, I, it's still not enough. I haven't seen enough here to, um, to, to, to, to, you know, like to agree with you. I guess.

Okay. We'll find out. Yeah, we'll revisit it. Yeah, it's okay. Um, okay. One final thing here before we get out of here. I want to talk about kind of this idea of, of, uh, we'll find out of, um, we'll, we'll revisit it. talking about picks publicly and giving them out.

Not necessarily giving out picks actually more so. Like you and I are getting together here. We're talking about some of these games. We're talking about some of the lines, kind of the trends and whatnot. And I think you could take it from two angles, right? I think I would hope that people listening to this are realizing that it's, you know,

the two of us are just talking about sort of our feel for where things are headed or kind of things we've noticed and how to apply that into something actionable as opposed to just, you know, completely tailing everything you're saying. Do you ever get into that kind of uncomfortable? for a broad awkward space where you're sort of worried about, you know, who's consuming the information and kind of what they're doing with it and whether you're culpable for that at all?

I don't feel culpable because I think I've, I know my, I can look in the mirror and know that I've carried myself with integrity, you know, throughout my time and in the, the sports betting space. So, you know, I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't worry about that. But I do, I, I'm mostly worried about the people that are consuming my, my content, not really. really thinking about it enough, right? And then just kind of doing so carelessly, right? And I think the biggest challenge that I face on a daily basis is trying to find a balance between giving out picks and talking about the bets that I make, you know,

and just sharing general betting advice and, you know, talking about philosophical things and whatnot. but the biggest challenge is just trying to kind of temper expectations. Because, like, for me, one of my biggest attributes as a gambler, as a sports better, is that I'm not a degenerate. I'm not doing this just for action. And I'm not, like, bashing anybody that does if you're responsible with it, and you just simply like having that extra little bit of rush added to your viewing experience. That's cool.

Like, you do you, right? but I can go three, four days making a bet. You know, if I don't feel like I have a big enough advantage, then, you know, there's, my attitude is totally let the good bets come to you, right? So I think that once you get into the content business, there's this pressure on you to produce picks all the time.

And, you know, for example, Tuesday, there's 10 games. I had two bets on Monday, both of them one, just saying. but I had two bets on Monday in a six-game slate. I've got a small bet on Tuesday. That's it. I monitored some other things. Like I said, I was maybe considering betting on the Los Angeles Kings against the Tampa Bay Lightning

if Brian Elliott got that start, but that didn't happen, so I didn't. You know, I'm a patient guy, and a lot of people aren't. So it's hard to elaborate on that on a day-to-day basis, and I don't think everybody that reads my stuff necessarily picks up on that. But I do try to remind people a lot. There's 1,312 regular season games.

You don't have to bet them all. You don't even have to bet every day. I think that's like the biggest thing. Like if you're doing this just for fun, then you should really be, you know, mindful of, you know, the your average bet size, you know, how things can add up quickly and whatnot. So just kind of be mindful of that. for me, I mean, the fun is trying to make money, right?

And it's no fun losing money. So I'm not looking to make bad bets. And if I don't feel there are any good bets to make on a day, I'm fine going about my day or preparing for the next day's games, right? So a lot of people aren't. And I think that's the biggest challenge with making content. for me I take most of for the most part I take a kind of like a top down approach now

I started at the bottom I built I built up my process for doing this on a day to day basis and I'm always trying to tweak it and whatnot but you know I'm at the point now where I can kind of kind of just like sit back and I know I have a pretty good idea where the odds should be for most games and and I can just find good bets in that way And like I said, you've got to be, you've got to be patient. You've got to be doing this every day. And that's kind of hard to get across to people, I think.

Yeah, I think for myself personally, like I think I find it very important to follow the market because I think the way that Vegas handicapped certain situations can be, you know, highly instructive or revealing for us. As analysts, I think there's a lot of actionable information in there. You know, I get it's not for everyone, but I think if you're just entirely ignoring it, you're missing out on valuable intel. I personally much before the fantasy space because I think that, you know, kind of noticing those deployment or usage

or skills changes, especially on a player to player basis, it allows you to kind of get a jump on that and take advantage of it. And I think we've sort of seen a proliferation or in the popularity of shot props as well for players and kind of filling that gap in the market. But I think all this stuff is really interesting.

And I think there's a lot of valuable stuff to kind of, mind from it. I just wanted to get your thoughts on that because I think it's always curious to see kind of how people approach us and what their headspace is about it. Yeah, and one of the big reasons why I

focus almost solely on just predicting game outcomes and who's going to win money line bets is because those are so widely available. Every sports book has those bets and every sports book has pretty similar odds when it comes to those bets. If you're getting into shop

props and things like that, which I've done in the past, it hasn't gone well for me. I know some other people have done well. But they've kind of got to make it, I feel like those people have made it that, like that's their thing. Like that's all they do now. And maybe that's,

that's a good thing for them. I can't manage it all. Like I said, that requires me to take like a bottom-off approach every single day and that's tough when you're already doing so much. But yeah, the shop props are tough, player props in general.

They're great markets to handicap. And it's where I would suggest retail or sorry recreational better start maybe if you're really trying to find a fun perspective is probably seems like the most fun thing to kind of follow if you're watching a game totally yeah and I think I think the variation throughout the market like being able to pick off really good prices if you can shop around and find different you know different odds at different sports books for different players or for the same players sorry you can see some pretty big discrepancies so I think it's totally interesting but as far as like giving that stuff out on a

day-day basis, I find it's tough because the stuff's not widely available. A lot of times when I did give out shot props, people would say, like, hey, I check my sports book and they don't have this, right? So, yeah, it's a tough one. All right, Annie, well, this is a blast. I really enjoyed it. Hopefully the listener has got something out of her as well. Let them know where they can check you out and kind of, you know, where your work's at. Yeah, I'm on Twitter at Digital Gambler, and my daily content is over at vSyn.com. It's a 24-7 sports betting network. I've got my little corner there where I do my daily betting market report,

break down every game. Like I said, I handicap every game. I might not necessarily have a pick on every game or every day, but I share everything I do throughout the week and track all of my plays on a great app called BetStamp. Love it. All right, pal. Well, we're definitely going to have you back on here, Sue,

and check in again. In the meantime, listeners can help us out by going and hitting the five-star button wherever they listen to the show. And we'll be back tomorrow with a spicy one. We're having our palis Satyar Shah in studio to talk about this Canucks team in the season they're having so far. So look forward to that here on the PDO cast on the Sportsnet Radio Network.