The Hockey PDOcast - Sorokin’s Start, Challenging Defensive Environments, and the Vezina Race So Far

Episode Date: December 10, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Kevin Woodley to discuss Ilya Sorokin's start to the year, the most challenging defensive environments and the challenges they post to the goalies playing behind them, Jesper Wallstedt's first full NHL season, how Mackenzie Blackwood has looked since returning from injury, Logan Thompson continuing to post outrageous numbers, and the top of the Vezina conversation at this point. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Regressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey P-D-O-Cast with your host, Dmitri Philipovich. Welcome to the Hockey-O-Cast. My name is Dmitra Fulpovich, and joining me as my good buddy, Kevin Woodley. Kevin, what's going on, man? Oh, you know, it's December, which means sort of prepared. prepared for the holidays, which really means not at all. So are you one of those last-minute guys like me? Definitely. I'm on a day-by-day basis right now. There's so much hockey on every night.

I'm waiting until the holiday break starts, maybe 23rd evening, 24th in the morning, get some last-minute Christmas shopping done. Yeah, I'm a 24th guy on a lot of years. Unfortunately, I'm leaving town beforehand, so that bumps it up. I got to be prepared this year, and I'm not. Well, here's the good news. We've got an early Christmas gift for our listeners because they always love when we have you on. It's been a while since we checked in.

We're due for our monthly catch up here. I've got a list of topics on the goaltending front that I wanted to chat about with you today and pick your brain on. And so we're going to get through as many of them as we can. I wanted to start off with Ilya Seroquin, who started the year with an 868, say, percentage, 26 goals against in his first seven starts. Since then, 14 starts, 27 goals against combined, 9.31. say percentage. And this coincides with, I don't know how much of it is actually directly related, how much of it is he was going to turn it around after just a small sample of seven games anyways, but it certainly neatly coincides with the goalie coach change they made along the way towards

the end of October, bringing in his goalie coach from his final two years in the KHL who had been working with the AHA affiliates since last season and getting them working together again full time here for the Islanders. And he's taken off. since and he's done so in an environment that I certainly think is drastically different than the one we typically associate with the Islanders. There's been so many positives they made this season with Matthew Schaefer coming in, just kind of fundamentally changing the way they attack off the rush being so much faster and more dynamic as a team. It's come with a tradeoff at the other end where I think they're bleeding much more than we've typically come to associate with the Islanders

and it hasn't mattered at least to date because I think Sorokin has been as good as he has been. So I want to talk to you a little bit about what we're seeing from him, the turnaround he made since that slow start and how much we should really be putting into the goalie change. Because I heard our pal, Steve Aliquette talking about it on another program recently, and he was making a big deal about it. So I wanted your take on how you feel about the matter. Well, I mean, it accomplished two things, I think. Obviously, first and foremost is Ilya's comfortable and he's performing well. I've got to be. honest with you though the environment thing you mentioned like even before the goalie coaching change

to me a lot of the issues were what was going on in front of him um his expected say percentage early this season was below 870 which is just like borderline absurd there's only a handful of guys that stay that low it's up to 875 now but that's still like 20 plus points below the league or almost 20 points below um the league average right now like it's it's significant sorry, it's 15 below the league average. I'll get it right here. He's been remarkable all season long, but certainly even better since the change.

And as much as it puts him in a comfortable spot, working with somebody that he's worked with for years, it also probably helped the Islanders because it didn't sound like having his primarily Russian-speaking goalie coach in the American Hockey League was doing much good for the guys down there either, to be perfectly honest with you. So there was some confusion around that hire, around whether it was intended to be in the National Hockey League right away.

Obviously, there's been management changes there, some confusion, I think, even for the goalie coach that was hired about where he was actually being hired to coach in the early going. So you've heard some stories around this one. There are some GMs that don't love the idea of letting a goalie call a shot about who's coaching him, whether this was Ilya doing that or not. But at the end of the day, when you're number one guy who plays as much as he does, and he's one of the rare workhorses

and plays as well as he does having him comfortable on a day-to-day basis matters. It certainly does. Let me put a couple numbers to illustrate that defensive environment talking about. You obviously have different

and probably more detailed stuff under the hood from clear sight but just using a combination of Spore Logic and natural statric prior to last night's game on Tuesday night against the Golden Knights, sport logic had him at plus 26, goal save above expected in his first 20 games.

They had him at an 884 save percentage on slot shots. 873 on inner slot shots at that volume is a preposterous number. Natural statute had him facing a league high, 205 high dangerous shots against. Through 21 games, second to Spencer Knight, 186. UC Soros, third, 185, Dustin Wolf, 171. Those are three of the worst defensive teams and teams in general in front of those goalies. Roken is still lapping the field there. Sport logic has them as a team, 30-second in-in-er-slot shots allowed.

Now, I think it's been a net positive because not only has the entire organization been reinvigorated with Matthew Schaefer's arrival, there's so much more fun to watch, the offense has taken a massive step in the positive direction, and the results, partly because Serogan's carrying them whenever he has to clean up the mess, have come as well. In his four games in December, they've beaten the lightning twice, the asses. abs, giving him their second regulation loss of the season only, and then the Golden Knights in shootout on Tuesday night. And so beating some really good opponents hanging around the playoff race.

And I think it's a great story. I think what he's doing is wildly impressive. And I was looking as part of our conversation today, I wanted to talk about the Vesna race through 30 games or so. We can get more into that conversation later. But the market has not really caught up with it. I wonder how much of it is just the sort of belief that the Islanders probably won't hang around this playoff picture.

and if they're not, their goalie probably won't get credit for the remarkable season he's having individually, but he's not even in the close to the top five or six right now. And through these first 20 games, I've watched them, he's clearly been one of, if not the best goalie in the league. Yeah, no, I mean, similar numbers, not the same. Certainly not that high a goal saved above expected, and that's not Ilius Serocha, and that's everybody. He is number two in the National Hockey League by clear-stites numbers in goals saved above expected. behind only Andre Vasaleski, but the number is closer to seven and a half than it is 23. I always kind of chuckle when we see discrepancies that wide, but it is just the reality of...

Listen, I'm trying to give the goalie's credit and you're trying to take away. I know. I know. I mean, it's... Let's the record show that. I know. I feel like I'm going to get the knock. I'm going to take away my goal of union card any minute here. I talked about the expected say percentage, how low it was, well below league average. He is clearly being asked to stop bullets in his teeth. high danger chances only UC Soros has seen more by clear sites accounting in defensive environment in zone they're really bad in zone

like sort of settled defensive play 31st in the national hockey league overall 5 on 5 in terms of high danger chances against they're actually 19th and a large part of that is is off the rush it's their 9th PKs 22nd so I mean this isn't you know to to go to a team I watch a lot this isn't the Vancouver Canucks defensively but this is definitely a team that gives up more than top teams tend to do being bailed out by a goaltender who is like I said not only just stopping bullets in his teeth so to speak but doing it while playing you know as much as anyone

in the league at a time when we see that number shrink he would 100% uh be at the top of my vesna list right now um even if he's not at the top of the goal of save list just because he's doing it in a much harder environment like as much as vaselisky is there, his environment is significantly easier this season. And we see that in terms of adjusted save percentage, right? Like he's got a cumulative numbers are there, but he's doing it in a much easier, a much more structured defensive environment. When it comes to sort of more of a per shot metric, and we're still less than halfway through the season, and I look at where Sorokin is on that plus plus 2.8% is like almost saving you three goals every hundred

shots. That's almost a goal of game right. And I mean that's that's remarkable. There are only a couple of guys that are better than that so far this season. One who would also be on my Vesna finalist watch list is Logan Thompson who's right at the same number. But again, another guy who you know, the defensive environment isn't great, but still better than Sorokin because of how tough it is. Other guys that are up there, I'll give you a quick list. Jonathan, quick, small sample size, but man, when he's been healthy, he's been unreal. Brandon Boosie, and we can talk about Carolina later, and Devin Cooley out of nowhere, at plus 2.9%, saving the flames almost a goal of game when he's in that. That's pretty remarkable.

So you mentioned the in zone stuff, and I think that's certainly past what I saw in watching the game on TNT against the Golden Knights Closie. Now, Vegas is one of the best teams in the league at generating shots from the inner slot, especially with Tom Hurtle out there. It feels like he gets a handful just by himself a game. And that was the case in that one where him and Pavl de Raffaev were just kind of teeing off in that interior. The couple goals again,

Sroken did give up were off of kind of these rebounds that were kicked out into the slot and guys were there just unattended to and were able to tap at home. But I thought his lateral movement in that one was remarkable. There's such an effortless kind of glide to his game where it coming across and sticking that big pad out and making saves. And the other thing that I wanted to note was I love how much he utilizes his paddle. Now in that game, he got in trouble because Brett Howden was coming around the net and he went for like a little, a wide sweep check with it and tripped him and got called for it and took a

penalty. But three or four times in that game alone, as the puck was around the net where a golden knight was kind of trying to tuck it laterally against him, he was knocking stuff away. And I love that because I feel like sometimes, especially in the shootout, we see goalies because they almost get frozen and they don't want to over commit yet. They allow the guys to just like kind of dangle with a puck in tight and then eventually get to their spot and pull off a move and make them look silly as a result of it.

And he has no interest in that at all. Like he's so active with his paddle. So I know those are some of the things that I saw in watching that game on Tuesday, but he's so fun to watch and so I think economical about his movements. Dominic Cashick would never, right? Like forget these guys coming in that close. and I love guys with active sticks, especially when we get into the shootout.

We saw it in that game last night, like where they are really bad, net front D zone, 32nd in the league, east west in the D zone, giving up laterals across the middle of the ice on settle play, 29th in the league. And we saw so many examples of that. When he goes east west to make those saves

against Dorafeu or anybody else in that game, because there were so many, it's his ability to move efficiently and seal the ice without losing any connection to his upper body. So non-goly people when they watch him play, like just notice how upright he stays and tall he stays through his hips and over top of his knees he stays with his torso.

Like he's not spaying forward unless it's in an absolute desperation situation and his ability to stay in control and over his knees, I would say, as he moves around on the ice, we've used the term with Shish Dherkin that he's like a hovercraft out. out there. There's an element of that to Sorokan's game as well.

But the fact he's able to stay upright and over his knees allows him to go to the desperation moments much later in sequences. Hands stay active. We saw a lot of saves again against Vegas last night because I watched that game, not tip to tail, but for most of it. And there were so many times where those are good looks off lateral plays and rebounds and scrambles. And it's not just blocking saves.

He keeps the hands active even when he's on his knees. and that all goes into or ties back to his ability to stay balanced over top of his knees as he moves the east-west, still maintain a pretty wide butterfly and coverage along the ice. You know, some goalies lose that. They narrow up. His ability to stay relatively wide and push side to side, it all kind of goes hand in hand. And it's a treat to watch. It's what a lot of goalies aspire to.

I know goalie people around the league that, you know, for the past couple of years, have said to me, he's their, like, he's their favorite. I know there's, there's, there's, there's one guy who sort of specialize on the biomechanics side that, like, that's his favorite guy to watch because of how connected he stays in all those movements, you know, even ahead of a Shisterkin and ahead of some of the other top names in the game. It's, uh, it would have made a fascinating, some fascinating choices would have had to be made for Russia if they'd actually been allowed to compete in the Olympics this year

between Bob and his playoff success. And Sorokin and what he's doing, Shastirkin and how good he is. And Vasilevsky would have bounced back as well this season. Like I said, at the top of the goal saved above expected by Clear Sites list so far. So while we're on team environments and sort of stylistic or system things, I got this question in Discord that I want to run by you. And it goes, how do goalies feel about their teams in front of them trying to block, quote unquote, block all the shots?

It seems like it would hurt their visibility as well as reduce the number of easy saves that could help otherwise. improve their rhythm in game. So I'm curious for a dick on this. We can talk about some of the extreme examples, whether it's a Vegas or a Philly under Rick Tocket or Carolina's man-on-man approach, but kind of these teams that are clearly trying to just suffocate in terms of decreasing the volume that actually makes its way onto the net

and their goalie has to face. And whether that's a net positive or whether you think it opens up a whole different kind of worms in terms of making it a bit more difficult of a job for their goalie because they're facing fewer shots. The ones that get through will probably be more high danger. And then there's all these kind of risks and complications of either inadvertent screens or tips or some, I think last time you and I spoke, we discussed how something I've been seeing a lot is with everyone trying to, especially below the hash marks, go east-west, in tight to decrease the amount of time

the goalie has to get across for that save. There's been so many inadvertent tips off a defender stick and through the goalies, wickets, and into the net. And so we're seeing a lot of that. I think those are the extreme examples that you gravitate to and might not necessarily matter in the grand scheme of things because they're not that frequent. But I'm curious from a goalie perspective, how do you think they approach this question?

There's no perfect answer, right? Because if a guy does get a pass across and you're late getting there and your defenseman gets a stick on a shot and it goes up into the netting instead of into your netting, you're grateful. Of course, you want sticks in lanes and blocking shots. when you're not set and square. But it's the ones where, you know, you have from distance, it's the ones off, not to go Don Cherry on this,

but defense's been reaching in on guys coming down the wing, a shot that the goalie stops 99% of the time, and all of a sudden it tips off the stick. And everybody says, like the common reaction is, well, it hit the stick like, you know, 30 feet away from the net. He should be able to react to that. And the reality of an NHL goaltender is he is reacting to the release before it leaves the stick blade.

Like they have so much innate information in their head. Some are able to express why some just know. They know where that puck is headed before it leaves the blade. And when it hits a defenseman's blade, six inches off that release. And you're already moving because if you don't, you're too late. You can get caught looking silly. And everyone's like, oh, a deflected way out there. He should have been able to adjust.

And it's just not the reality. So there are moments where we would rather have clear sight lines. when we see so much traffic in front of the net obviously a lot of the times the layered screens that are more dangerous are caused by your own defenders and that's where we talk about systems and being on the same page in terms of what lane the defender is in

and what lane the goalie is responsible for sight line-wise being in sync with that really matters then there's the other riddle like I know I'll go to Devon Dubnick in Minnesota was having one of his best seasons. Minnesota was giving up too many shots, though. And so they changed their system to basically lower the shot totals, even though the shots he was facing were can of corn easy. They started

blocking more shots. Well, inevitably what happened? They started getting in his sight lines. They started having pucks deflect off him and his numbers cratered, but the coach could go to the media and say, hey, look, our shot totals are down. I just need more saves. And this was back in an era where, you know, frankly, a lot of the public numbers were recording those point shots that got deflected as, you know, 0.1% chances because they were coming from the point. And nobody, I don't know other than ClearSight does a good job of screens and sort of accounting for that. So there is no perfect answer, but certainly stuff from the point and stuff from outside, you'd much rather just have a clean look and sticking, you know, a leg in or a stick in probably increases the chances

of it going in on a shot you would like to face. Carolina, another example, they've switched a little bit, but I remember having this conversation with Bill Peters, and he's like, well, what do you want me to do? Just like let those shots through. And it's kind of, you know, because they blocked everything. But then their goalies never faced an easy chance. They never got the 99 percenters that we call the feelers,

the feel goods that allow you to touch a couple of pucks, make a couple controlled saves, and feel you're connected to the game and in rhythm. So there is no perfect answer. Obviously, if you're beat and your guy gets a stick in there, you're celebrating, you're tapping them on the pads, you're thanking him. But there are, I feel like there's more times than not, they're in a lane that makes it a lot harder for you to do your job. And that's where you have to make sure you don't glare at them when it bounces off their shit and goes in. Vegas is an interesting one from an environment because I think a lot's been made since Bruce Cassidy came in and it wound up resulting in a Stanley Cup victory in terms of the man-on-man approach.

but then the fronting in particular in terms of trying to get out in front, particularly in tight, eliminate stuff from around the net, try to make life easier for the goalies. You and I have spoken about some of Aden Hills challenges along the way, especially the down low stuff and how that's an entirely different ball game in and of itself. But just looking at their system this year, I mean, ninth in shot attempts, third in shots on goal, second in slot shots, first and inner slot shots,

that like erosion in terms of as you get into higher quality, how infrequent the looks are for a, And I think what's so impressive about them is their defensemen certainly are asked to play that way, but then partly because of the personnel they have and they haven't even had William Carlson for a large stretch of this, but whether it's Eichol or Stone or Marner certainly coming in, the puck pursuit on the perimeter, I think enables all out of that to click into place because they also don't spend a lot of time in their own zone. And maybe that's one of my issues with that approach for teams that don't have that particular personnel that can get away with it because they wind up. playing this sort of absorb style and it almost looks like by design like when a team goes up big and then they just kind of start playing

back and just trying to keep stuff their perimeter it makes sense if you only have 20 minutes left and you're up by a couple goals and you're just trying to get this thing across the finish line but if that's your defensive approach from the get go I feel like you can get yourself into a lot of inadvertent trouble and so some teams try to do that and that's what happens to them and that's really not the case with Vegas because they almost are having their cake and eating it too in terms

terms of not giving up quality stuff, but also not really just allowing you to waste time on the perimeter as well either. Well, it's working because their net front defense is number one in the National Hockey League. Their dots down defenses number four and their east-west D zone is six in terms of what they give up expected goals against per 60. So whether stylistically, it can lead to sagging overall or sitting back when you're under attack defending a lead, that's a different argument, whatever they're doing when they do it, it's been effective in terms of not giving up quality. What about for the hurricanes? Because I know you wanted to discuss them and you kind of mentioned them there a second ago. Obviously, I think the defensive personnel this

year is one thing without having Slavin available since the start of the season. Keondra Miller missed some time. Shane Gosses-Barr missed some time. They've been having to incorporate guys from their AHA system along the way and then the goalie injuries as well themselves and how much they've had to rely on Brandon Bussie along the way and what a nice find he's been for them. But we spent so much time talking about their possession style and then some of the changes they've been trying to make offensively along the way to kind of break through that glass ceiling they've had in the playoffs the past couple of years. We've also seen as a byproduct of that, I think there has been some defensive erosion from

where they were a couple years ago, in particular with the amount of just breakaways or odd man rushes they give up because of how aggressive they are deep in the offensive zone. and then the strain that puts on their goalies to make, you know, they haven't faced a shot in 12 minutes of game time and then all of a sudden it's a two-on-one or a breakaway and you have to just stare that down and make a stop. What are you seeing from them and kind of do the numbers bear that out?

And what is that like from a mental exercise, I think, for a goalie for the hurricanes to deal with moving forward? Yeah, I think the mental part is a big part of it and a little harder to quantify, obviously. You know, just inevitably, we talked about the 99%ers, the feel good shots that goalies not rely on to varying degrees. Like some guys just couldn't play behind that system where they're not getting those feelers, where they're not getting. And listen, we talked about this last year when I wrote the story about why shot, why say percentage down? Because nobody's taking those low quality shots anymore.

So you combine Carolina not giving them up like philosophically in terms of how they defend with teams not wasting shots. and what you end up with is a team that like is off the rush is where they give up all their quality as you said because of the way they play five on five high danger rush chances against dead last in the league odd man rushes 28th in the league and what that does is you don't end up with the volume like i'll give you the example like brandon boozy right now um has one of the highest adjusted say percentages in the league and it's still a smaller sample than a lot of guys but when you look at the cumulative numbers, like he's up there.

We were talking about Sorokin and Thompson. Brandon Boosie is slightly above both of them in adjusted say percentage. But when we look at the cumulative numbers, he's 14th. And so sort of digging into that environment and there's been a lot of criticism

of their goaltending based on the raw numbers where it really comes out as an expected say percentage. Right? So the cumulative stuff, the XG, the expected goals, that's not going to look bad for Carolina, but it's the quality of chances they face. Dead last, like the lowest expected say percentage in the league right now.

So the toughest defensive environment, Freddie Anderson at 865. Fourth hardest environment, Brandon Boosie at 869. Piotr Kochetkoff, 879 in a much smaller sample. That's around the 10th hardest environment in the league. So when you've got, you know, and that's, that's, that's, still 10 points below league average. Like Freddie Anderson's operating in an environment where you would have to add 25 points to his say percentage to compare him to the league average.

Brendan Boosie, you got to add 20 points. So there's the mental challenge in terms of managing, not seeing shots, and they've handled it pretty well. But there's also the expectation of what your numbers should be relative to what the quality of shot you're facing is. And I think that's one where I see a lot of the criticism. and I'm like, you know, it brings me back, and I've used this example lots of times before,

Dimitri of the Eric Comrie year in Buffalo, where he hadn't expected the lowest I've seen, 858, and everyone's like, he's not an NHL goalie. I'm like, well, who is with an 858 expected? That's really tough to sort of outplay. And put him in Winnipeg, and we see an NHL goalie. So it's just a metric that doesn't get talked about a lot. And I think for goalies,

in the case of the Carolina hurricane, when I click on it and they're all at the bottom of my list you know, out of the 80 goalies that have played, the Carolina Hurricanes are all highlighted at the bottom of the league, like two of the toughest four environments in the league.

Now that tells me that it's a pretty big ask there right now. Different ask, but a big ask. And Boosie in particular. The lesson here might be if you're looking for waiver wire claims, like anytime the Florida Panthers goalie department is interested in a guy, that should have everybody raise their eyebrow, right? Because they just find guys.

And Boosie's a guy that was signed to them out of their system, coming out of Boston, had a great first year pro, and took a backseat to DiPetro in his second year. Florida signs him, loses them off waivers, and he's a star in Carolina. And again, yes, there are things Carolina does that look on the surface easy for goalies, but there's an element to it that makes it a lot more difficult. Yeah, I think the game they played at home on Black Friday against the Winnipeg Jets was the best example of this, where they just dominated territory. It felt like they were in the offensive zone the entire game. I think the final shot total was like 35 to 12 or something, right?

And then the goal, the Jets score is a Mark Shafley breakaway. They later on in the game get a breakaway from Kyle Connor short-handed, another one for Cole Perfetti where Kane's defenseman falls. And it's like three of the 12 shots were breakways from Winnipeg's best players. And that feels like kind of a recurring theme for the hurricanes. I think Jacob Slavin coming back and them getting healthy on the blue line is going to help erase a lot of that just because of how much ground he covers and how him and Keandre Miller can recover when the forwards are caught a little low. I do think they need to increase their risk profile from previous seasons offensively to try to figure this out by the time they get into a playoff setting and have to play a Vasilevsky or Shasturkin again, which has been their downfall. certainly Bobrovsky the past couple years. Ironically, we had this conversation from the other end of it for the hurricanes.

I think the first year they lost to Bobrovsky and the Panthers because a big topic at time was them getting golead and everyone feeling like Brovsky stole that series. And you and I had this long conversation kind of unpacking the concept of sequencing, I think, when it comes to how you get your shots or how the expected goals totals for a goalie kind of come together and I think that's really important because just thinking this through it's like five shots that are 0.1 expected goals worth of offense and then one shot of 0.5 expected goal worth of offense are going to come out at the end of the day if you just look at the number as the exact same total yet obviously the latter is going to be far more likely to result in a goal

because it's such a high danger one likely either a two on one or a breakaway or something extremely difficult and that matters. And so it feels like that's kind of what's happening to the hurricane's goalies here in verse from what they were doing to other teams offensively in previous seasons. Yeah, yeah, it's a tough. It's a tough gig. It's a really tough gig. And there are historically a lot of great goaltenders, like really great goaltenders,

guys that are or should be in the Hall of Fame that would struggle behind this environment just because of that unique challenge. And it's one that goalies are facing increasingly on more team. just because, like we've talked about, there are fewer teams taking those low-danger shots, more of what you see percentage-wise is quality, but it's to the end degree with the hurricanes. All right, Kevin, let's take a quick break here,

and then we come back. We'll jump right back in. We're going to close out today's show with a couple other topics I have in mind for you. You're listening to the Hockey, Ocas streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the HockeyPedocast, joined by Kevin Woodley. Kevin, I got three or four more things I want to talk to you.

I wanted to talk to you about Yersper Walsett a little bit. I wanted to talk about McKenzie Blackwood. I wanted to talk about the Sabres goalie rotation and then the Vesner Race. I'll give you the floor, which one are you most interested in and which one you want to start off with. Oh, let's talk about Yesper Walsstead first. Yeah. Now, unfortunately, I don't know if you were in attendance for it, but his most recent game in Vancouver was the first time he's looked human in about six weeks because he went on an absolute heater of all heaters for the entirety of November bleeding into the start of December. The season long numbers still look absolutely preposterous.

He has a 936-8 percentage in 11 starts, 22 goals against four shutouts, which leads the league despite the fact that he's played less than half the teams. games nearly a third of them um what are you seeing from him because obviously it was a goalie who was a first round pick was a highly touted prospect it's been a a slow build he came into this year with just five career in hl games i believe he's already up to 11 this year and it feels like his emergence is also right of the ship a little bit for philip gustavson as well part of that is i think the wild as a team have just started playing better since mat sukarello came back and allowing that lineup to kind of fall into place. What are you seeing from him now as he really sort of goes into the deep end here of his

first full NHL season and what the short-term upside is here and the long-term one as well for him? Like the long-term upside is on like the same thing that made him the draft pick he was so high in the draft, right? Like a first round pick. The talent has always been there. There's a control element to his game. Like he plays a really controlled technically sound game.

There are a lot of things from a mind. set perspective like what he's overcome it didn't go that well right like it did not go that well in the american hockey and he was open about how tough it was and the struggles he went through and i admire that willingness to sort of share and be open about what he's gone through and coming out on the other side and be better for it i think talking to gustavson because waltzed did start here i didn't really get a chance to to dig into it with him the last time we had an hour long conversation was kind of heading into his draft and i was just so impressed with the young man.

He's been through a lot since then. I think having Gustafson there to sort of help him is probably a really big deal. Again, I'm not going to ask him about those kind of things after his first loss in a long time. Although, honestly, the way he was so frank about it in his post game, I felt like I could have. Like he could have sat down and had a conversation with him.

And I think that matters. Like the ability to not get too high, not get too low. I know, you know, the one thing I would say about his numbers, they're incredible. His adjusted, say, percentage is seventh in the league. get plus 2.5%. So again, what does that mean? Like every 100 shots, he's saving them two and a half goals. And that's seventh in the entire NHL. The one caveat I would give there is his environment so far, and they're in a rotation, so this is probably coincidental. But

right now his environment at a 907 expected is, you know, the quote unquote, fourth easiest in the league right now. And it's a full 10 points ahead of Gustafson, interestingly. So they're defending really well for him and he's paying them back by being really good behind them. I just think, like there's nothing that jumps out about his game. We talk about the Russians and how they

move and Sorokin and Chastirkin and the Hovercrafts on ice. He's got a really connected game as well. I don't know if it's quite as dynamic or as fluid as those guys. He's got a lot more size. He uses it efficiently. He puts himself in good spots. He beats plays

to set. And once he's set, like he's shown a pretty good reactive game. Vancouver being the exception, right? Got beat on a couple, you know, clean looks. Great shots, but clean looks. There's just a lot to like there. Short term, because he's on a heater, but also long term. Like, I think he's a guy that as long as there's some level of structure in front of him,

when I watch him play, do I think he's having the same success, even though he's got similar numbers adjusted wise to Ilius Sorokin, do I think he's having the same success behind a team that's asking for incredible, dynamic, athletic, explosive saves on a constant basis. Maybe not. But also the way he positions himself and keeps himself in a sort of neutral position and not overcommitting the stuff, there's probably a lot of those ones where it might look more dynamic for Sorokin, but Walshstead just gets there and plays a little hit

me, right? Like he's in position and he's massive. So there's a lot of really good refined technical elements, which we expect from Swedish goaltenders. It's what Gustafson was, you know, one of the anchors. of his game, a thing that Mark Andre Fleury used to sort of point to how good he was in and off his post. And those two, I think the fact

they fit style-wise so well together probably allows them to feed off each other a little bit and they've got a hell of a goalie coach. I think people forget, like we see all the success in Minnesota. You know, like shout out to Frederick Shabbat who you know, was let go, you know, we talk about guys in mid-season and we talked about

Elias Roken and his Russian goalie coach coming in mid-season. Like, don't take that as a Piero Greco who was let go in that. that situation isn't good at his job because he had a lot of success there. And I know a lot of goalies that really believe he's an excellent goalie coach. I think the last guy to lose his job midseason was Frederick Chabot. And he came into Minnesota with Devin Dubnick, who he'd worked with in Edmonton,

and we all sort of saw how that went. So I watched them do work, drill work the day they were here with Gustafin. They're out there for a long time. And I was just really impressed with sort of the balance that he brings as a goalie coach. I think between the three of them, they've got a real. nice partnership going and that matters. You know, both guys on board in terms of who's in the crease and a goalie coach that's constantly pushing them

while allowing them to also feed off each other. Now, I want to talk about Blackwood real quick here because obviously he misses a good chunk of the start of the season. Scott Wedgwood takes over and performs remarkably well to the point where he himself gets thrown into conversation for being in consideration for Team Canada at the Olympics and making it onto their list this season. And Blackwood comes back.

He's got nine starts now, 10 appearances since that return. The numbers all look phenomenal and certainly a smaller sample size than a lot of the other starting goalies in the league because of the nature of that injury. But I want your take on what you're seeing from him, whether if you were a running team Canada, he'd be a consideration for you because of, I think, that upside in terms of his athleticism

and just when he's in form and when he's healthy what that can look like and all that stuff because I think for a lot of abs players but certainly their goalies right now it's a little tricky to evaluate fairly because the team is just such an absolute buzzsaw that take it to what we just said about Carolina there's such a high baseline heading into every game

for their goalies I imagine mentally because you know that your team is going to score a lot in front of you, you're going to get a ton of run support. So I think the margin for error is pretty high in terms of what you can get away with. And so that's a great starting point for you. And then they're playing well. They're not really giving up that much defensively either. And so you put that all together.

And it's a pretty unbelievable environment for any goal to be it, and not to take away from the way these two guys have performed because they're playing well pretty much every single night. But what are you seeing from Blackwood specifically right now? I just, I mean, he looks much like Walsett. Like, he's just such a massive human, right? Like, I know guys that other goalies that played with Blackwood earlier in his career that said he could be a linebacker in football, right?

Like, he's just this big athletic guy. Really in control of his game, again, much like Walshead, like just put yourself in a position. Not that you're a blocking goalie, but put yourself in a position and put yourself early to use your size as your insurance policy and then react from there. And I see a lot of that in Blackwood's game. His numbers since coming back have actually surpassed Scott Wedgwoods. both not just like even in a tiny sample his adjusted say percentage is top 10 in the league

Wedgewood's closer to right around 20th right now they've got a different environment so far again Blackwood's back and they're not sagging because they're still a wagon but you know holding your attention when you dominate as much as they have can become difficult as the season goes on and they've had a couple tougher starts Blackwood's environment is right around league average 888 just a little below it Wedgewoods is 902 which is again sort of up in that top 10, not quite as high as Walsheds, but up there.

On a per shot basis, Blackwood's been better since he came back. On a totality basis, despite that tiny sample, McKenzie, Blackwood is, you know, his adjusted numbers on the season are really, really high as well. So it's, it's one of those ones where they, both warrant consideration for Canada, like the one thing that Wedgwood does really well, because the reality is Canada is going to be that team, right, especially in the early going, that's not going to give up a lot of shots. It's probably going to play a tight defensive environment and their ability to succeed behind that. Like when I look at Scott Wedgwood,

I'm seeing, you know, a goalie who in those moments, much like Biddington at the Four nations. Like, yeah, not busy, not busy, controlled environment. he's a little more dynamically, he's a little more of a skater. But then in those really tough, high danger, he's got one of the best high danger state percentages in the league, like, or at least adjusted. Him and Blackwood are both up there. And so, you know, that counts, that matters,

your ability to play behind a team like this. So they're both, they're both, you know, they've both been extremely good so far. Blackwood, even more so of late. They both are fair value for consideration. I'm not going to pick one because nobody pays me to pick one, but I might tip my hat a little bit as good as Wedgwood has been

in that type of environment and as much as you're going to need those saves in the big games that he's delivering that foundation of hit me in size like even if you're not busy and you're not seeing a ton of shots Blackwood's foundation probably gives you a higher floor

and they've both got a really high ceiling if I could put it in those terms and Dimitri I got to say I hate to interrupt but well I mean I always do I screwed up. Like this is a Miakalpa here. About what? I had a filter on earlier when I was looking at the expected goals saved above expected on ClearSites numbers.

Okay. That somehow I'd been playing around with dates on one of the other windows I had open and the date carried over. So I was looking mid-November on. Ilya Sorokin absolutely leads the national hockey league in goals saved above expected. Plus 15, not quite the gaudy plus 23 that others haven't, it's still plus 15. Logan Thompson at plus 13.6. You know, we've talked about Walshsted. He's up at plus eight. Vasilevsky's still plus seven, but since November 15th has been the best goalie in the league.

So, you know, just a little me, a cup on my fault. Sometimes you don't check the filters closely when you haven't had enough sleep. But yeah, so anybody that is choking on my earlier comments about Sorokin, back off, I just screwed up the date. He is the best goalie in the league. Wins my Vezner right now alongside Logan Thompson as number two. I think that's fair I think what you said you had him second or something otherwise though so I feel like

it's not bad but yeah I mean yeah he's dominant regardless but that just on the totality again he I think he was up there like yeah at the end of the day though the totals are a lot higher than I was giving credit for so again you were trying to bail out the goalie union and give the goalies more credit and my fat fingers slipping on a date

was dismissing it so I fully expect somebody to come take away the union card out of my pocket today Yeah, I think Sorokin right now having a 9-10, say, percentage in a league where I think league average is 898, but his team specifically, I don't know what you said the expectation was, 875 or something. 875, yeah. That probably is correct based on what I saw against the Golden Knights, especially last night. So, yeah, he's been clearly the best. Let's get into that, then. Let's end.

We got 10 minutes left. I want to talk about the best in a race, because as I mentioned at the top, Sorokin, based on the market, is not up for consideration there. Although I think if this continues, it's going to be undeniable. Logan Thompson is the heavy favorite. I believe he's got about implied 35% odds right now. Then you get to Vasilevsky at 17% Shastricken below that. And then you get into this bunch of goalies, whether it's Swamen, Knight, Walsstead, and Sorokin being part of that mix.

As I said off the top, I think Sorokin would be first or second for me. But I think Logan Thompson is a very worthy candidate here as well, because his numbers are absolutely preposterous after another shutout against the Blue Jackets most recently and Charlie Lingren's been out here I think he's going to be back relatively soon though

but unlike last year where I think part of the benefit was they were so diligent about splitting starts between the two for a good chunk of the season and really kind of trying to maximize the efficiency of both they're going to lean on him a bit more here

and so far he's been certainly up to the task and so if anything those raw numbers if he keeps this up are going to get into a territory where they're going to rival what Sorokin's doing in a much tougher environment and I think going to justify him being number one on this list.

Sorry, and the last one was who? I was checking math. I got, well, Logan Thompson's first, Vasilevsky, second, and Jesterikins' third based on the market. Not necessarily mine, but that's how it's listed right now. And then you get into Swain and Knight, Walsstead and Sorokin. Yeah, you know what? You know who else could make a late charge?

We just talked about how good he's been since he got in there. Like if the team continues to win and he continues to maybe play a little more outside of a rotation is like Blackwood started that well in a small sample he could push his way up to some pretty gaudy totals i'd have sarokin and thompson one two on my list right now based on the numbers also just based on like like what sarokin is being asked to do you know what this reminds me of if he can keep it up because i've talked about this before on the show i believe that hard defensive environments or poor defensive environments have a cumulative effect like you know you can only trust systems matter and trusting guys to

execute matters as a goalie because your reads are not just based on trying to stop the opponents and what you think you know who's a left shot who's a right shot you know is he passing here is he shooting there what's what depth do i choose what safe selection do i choose all the stuff that goleys go over with us every week at pro reads over at ingle mag um but reading off your defenseman and so if you can't trust those reads if there's breakdowns consistently it gets really hard to sort of stay neutral and trust everything around you and so i believe it has you know a cumulative of effect over time. It's hard to maintain. But if he does, what

Sorokin is doing right now, frankly, reminds me of Shishterkin the year he won the Vezza, and he should have won the heart. Right? Like, it was just, I always go to that stopping bullets in your teeth. Like, they need him to be Superman, and he is Superman, and he's been it for a full third of a season while playing as much as

anyone else in the National Hockey League. If he keeps this up, it's a slam dunk for me. So, I mean, if the betting markets are behind on that, and okay, let's be honest. Like, I've seen a lot like quarter season polls by writers too that didn't include them which shocked me but they don't have access to the numbers and they just look

at the raw stuff. I think by the time you get into the voting there'll be enough conversation around just how hard that environment has been that if he keeps it up as good as Thompson is being and as much as he warrants the same level of consideration at this point if the environment doesn't change and Sorokin keeps it up it'll be hard to argue that he shouldn't and frankly it'll be easy to argue it should be hard as well.

Yeah it just does seem like from a team element for the voting of this award you're going to have to make the playoffs now the islanders are worked their way up to pretty much be in a coin flip and the metro is so tight as is the east in general but they're sitting in a playoff spot right now and their viability is a playoff team at the end of the season is going to largely hinge on um elisoroken keeping this up certainly so i think that works in his favor there but for logan thompson i mean with the way the the capitals are playing uh recently in his numbers i feel like he's a pretty good bet right now certainly I think deservedly so like he was phenomenal last year he people were a bit slow to come around to it we obviously had all those conversations about him and team Canada the four nations and it looks like that's going to be rectified for the Olympics and I think deservedly so because he's been just absolutely phenomenal I love watching him play too right not yeah not only the the hand in this with the glove as we've spoken about a lot but I just feel like I for whatever reason and maybe this was just because the sample size was kind of smaller in Vegas and it was such a unique environment, as we discussed earlier, in terms of what he was asked to do. I always thought he was one of those goalies that, like, was not a system goalie, but was very, like, high baseline, I think, in terms of his performance, because, like, asked to do certain things, he'd just be very capable, but I wouldn't necessarily want to throw him into an environment like Sorokin and the Islanders right now, where you kind of

have to rely on crazy athleticism and making all of these 10-bell saves. And then watching them now, the capitals are good defensively. but off the rush, I think they've been weaker this season and he's been asked to do more and he's compensated for not having the craziest size or athleticism like some of these other goalies with just throwing technique out the window sometimes, in my opinion, and just making the save however he has to.

And I really appreciate watching that as well. Yeah, so his reactive game and his hands, his patience off the release with those two elements are as good as anyone in the league, have been for a long time. what he does tactically in terms of starting from a neutral deeper position he'll still come out but he's not out early he'll come out once he reach shot and he makes those decisions very well doesn't get caught with the wrong decision very often and so he puts himself in a home base it's not quite Lundquist-esque but he puts himself in a neutral deeper home base position

that allows him to be on angle no matter how much east-west movement there is beat plays beat passes and then read do i step out and or do i stay back here and wait for the next one and so you'll see him charge out and it'll look a little dynamic athletic reactionary little scrambled at times even especially if he doesn't make the first save claim but he's got such great hands to react to it and he's not very rarely does he make a mistake where he takes himself out of position and their defensive environment like you said it's better it's gotten better it was it was below expected to start the year and it's right around league average right now his performance in both cases, like I said, near the top of the National Hockey League.

So fun to watch, absolutely should be on that team. I think that's a no-brainer, especially when I look at the goals saved above expected at the other end of the list and the bottom two names are Sam Montenboe and Jordan Bennington. All right, Kevin, this was a lot of fun. I'll let you plug some stuff on the way out here. We actually had someone on Discord note that you had, you had, I guess, been talking about somewhere else that you'd been in Montreal recently working on a feature for Engels. so I don't know if you want to get into that a little bit here,

but I'll give you the floor to promote whatever you want on the way out. Well, it was actually an equipment thing. Just a new launch from a company. We do work with Warrior Hockey. Has a new line coming out. January 1st will be the big announcement. So we were getting ahead of the curve with some review material there, caught up with a couple of goalies that have tested it

and are going to be wearing it. So Warrior Hockey is going through some really exciting things, and we were happy to be a part of it, especially when it involves a trip to Montreal. Never a bad thing, Dimitri. Other than that, just the kind of same old, same old. If you're a goalie, check out Ingoldmag.com. We'll make you a better goalie.

There's an entertainment component to it. But I think first and foremost, every week, we sit down with an NHL goalie. And I've up my technology game, Dimitri. You'd be proud of me. It's not quite me on Discord. But I got an iPad now all set up with a program called Coach Now that I can take into the room with clips, record the guy talking about the clips. They're scrolling through it on their finger, talking about why they made the save this way,

why they reacted a certain way. We bring that to our audience every single week at Inglemeg.com. You get to sit down with an NHL goalie and review footage. Nobody else does it like that. Make sure you check it out. Kids these days with their iPads on the bench,

reviewing tape. You're fitting right in with all the guys. Yeah, yeah, look at me in the Utes. Yeah, you're doing great. I'm proud of us. We resisted the years to talk about Oilers, goalies, and Trist and Jerry, and so I'm proud of us.

We've spoken so much about Stuart Skinner and the oilies goalies in the past, And so if anything happens with that in the future, we can revisit that next time I have you all. Let me give you one quick one. Tristan Jari adjusted save percentage. A goal saved above expected at this point in the year, both top 10, top five, and goals saved to above expected.

Made a lot of changes in his game in the last two years. They seem to be paying off when he's healthy. He's been an upgrade for a lot of teams. You've been the last, to your credit, you've been the last Tristan Jury defender and believer. Even when they sent him down to the H.L. last year, you were still on Tristan Jari Island. So I'll allow you to take that victory lap for now.

All right, Kevin. And this was a blast. We're going to have you on early in the new year in January to catch back up and do our monthly appearance. Then if you enjoy today's show, give us a five-star review. Wherever you listen, subscribe to the PDCEST Patreon for extra episodes and access to them as well. And that's all for today. We'll be back on Friday with two new shows to close out the week. Thank you for listening to the HockeyPedioCast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.