The Hockey PDOcast - Stanley Cup Final X-Factors

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to take a look at X-Factors for both teams in this year's Stanley Cup Final. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDYOCast. My name is Demetri Filippovich, and joining me as my good with you Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? Let's go, man. Second day in a row with a show up. Very excited.

Yes. What a blast. Yeah, this is going to be fun. If you missed yesterday's show somehow, we recapped the Western and Eastern Conference finals, how the Oilers and Panthers won their respective matchups. We also told you how we were here in Palm Springs for the next summer. couple weeks and we're just to be doing the show here full time. So, uh, enjoy the strap in and enjoy the ride with us. Um, here's a plan for today. We've got the full week until the game start on Saturday, right?

And that gives us plenty of opportunity to have some fun with the previews. We can do all sorts of deep dives. But I think we wanted to start what in particular with kind of X factors today. You teased it at the end of yesterday's show. Uh, you wanted to do a bit of a draft and that's always fun content, right? So we can kind of go back and forth and what's the, what's the criteria here is, are we keeping it very open-ended because I think we should try to like do it a bit deeper beyond Barkawber's McDavid which I think every preview I've read so far it's pretty much just entirely based on that and deservedly so I mean it's going to be an unbelievable strength for strength but yeah the point of the show is not to spend another 25 minutes gushing

about Gus Forsley oh man well there go all my notes so why don't we say why don't we say no top line no top pair okay and and throw in dry sidel kitchak for good measure Oh man. Okay. Maybe we'll work those in at the end if we still have time. Because they're obviously not like X factors necessarily. I think you've got to go deeper than that. But I think there's some interesting nuances in those matchups that we can address. All right. I'll give you the floor first then. You're the guest here. Although you're kind of the co-host while we're here. Yeah. Really. But I'll give you the floor. You can go first pick and we can just go back and

forth. Sure. Yeah. Okay. I'm going to pick. I honestly think the pick is, and it's got to be in my mind, Dillon Holloway and Minton Oilers. And I think think the speed game that we saw, so we saw him elevate into the top six for the end of the Vancouver series as Noblok kind of played his fastest possible lineup as that series turned to great effect. You know, I still look at the way that the Canucks approached and played the Oilers as super instructive. It was the team that gave them the most trouble, which isn't to like over-emphasize how close quote-unquote Vancouver was necessarily in that series. I thought Oilers goaltending really kept around but when Vancouver had real success not just finishing success you know it was it was the

four check turning game one it was the four check bearing the oilers early in game three and it was the four check really taking over all of game five yeah and while some of that you know can be alleviated or at least the oilers can put themselves in the best possible position to break the forecheck was something they did against dallas and not vancouver which is have philip roberg on the back end play more, Brett Kulak with Darnelner, stuff like that. Fundamentally what Edmonton did to turn that series was they loaded up speed in their top six with Dylan Holloway moving up and they played this McLeod, Warren Fogle and Derek Ryan third line, which was almost immediately dismantled, but was like a matchup specific solve by Knoblock and it worked a great effect. When I think about the Panthers pressure game and when I think about how can it, Edmonton beat, you know, that overload on the strong side.

Right. I really think like Holloway speed, Holloway's speed size combination, to me it's got to play. There's just no other. There's lots of guys like Vogel, McLeod, McDavid can skate. The Oilers have team speed. But the like poor man's Alex tuck of it all in Holloway, the ability to combine the speed and the size to help the Oilers just kind of get going.

I think that's going to be really essential because if. Edmonton can, you're not going to reliably beat the Panthers pressure game, but you need to not get demolished by it. And I just wonder if we end up seeing Holloway back on Dry Cytle's wing, if we see, you know, maybe even McLeod Dry Cidal Holloway, something to like really max the speed up of Edmonton's forward group. I think that's going to be something that the Oilers will have to strongly consider. I think Holloway is going to be central.

See, I lumped. This is a great one. It was one of my first ones as well. I kind of lumped it all together, not only Holloway, but also I said McLeod, certainly, Andre Seidel's wing. I said Philip Broberg as well, and currently these younger, more fleet of foot skaters that the Oilers have. And one of the great things that Noblog's done this postseason

is kind of entrusting them more and more and putting them in these positions to succeed atop the lineup. It's going to be tested here, right? Because I think you can envision a scenario where this series starts in Florida. Florida comes out of the gate hot and provides a lot of pressure, potentially win some battles for 50-50 pucks and kind of around the net. And you come away from that feeling like, all right, we need to kind of double down on size and strength here as opposed to the speed. And that's where I think Doylers could get themselves into trouble if they go that route.

And it's very easy to envision that, kind of an over correction after one or two games of facing a new opponent. So for me, it's like how quickly can Chris Knoblock get his best lineup out there essentially, right? And we almost, I think we saw pretty much that towards the end of the Star Series. I would include, like, I think you got to, as much as he struggled this postseason, for their best version, you need to get something from Warren Fogel here as well. And potentially even putting him, like, earlier on the year, we saw McLeod and Fogel really succeed with Dreisaitle because you essentially just had two, like, just dogs chasing after a ball and just pressuring everything and kind of pushing

the defense back and that creating space for Troy Sightal to do everything he does so well. And so if Nolblock can maybe resist the urge to double down on size and actually, actually keep trusting these young guys and do something that NHL coaches struggle, but in particular it feels like the Oilers as an organization have struggled with for so long. I think that could really make a difference here, right? Because we're talking about little margins, but this stuff's really important. Like we've just seen so far, like Holloway with his speed can create like a breakaway where he either scores against a quality chance almost out of nothing.

Yeah. And that's such a valuable piece for this Oilers team in a series that will, for all the talk about, you know, grit and intensity and toughness and all this stuff. it will be defined, I think, by speed because the Panthers force you to play at such a high pace all the time. Yeah, yeah, because that's what they do. And there's just, I mean, we've seen it throughout the postseason. We've seen Corey Perry with Dry Sidel. We've seen the Oilers go with different looking third lines that are maybe not quite as fleet of foot, right?

And I think to match the Panthers pace, you know, I think you make the good global point. And for me, I picked Holloway, because I mean, I'll have other points to make about some of the guys you mentioned. but to me I picked Holloway because for me he's the like the player that I could most see playing Panthers hockey and I feel like there's an element to which the Oilers need just like to hold up something of a funhouse mirror to their opponent like adapt a little bit. Yep. If they're going to win the sixth. I think he's also got the most skill out of these guys as well, right? I know that Ryan McLeod like scored that goal.

What was it game for whatever that really helped turn the series in Edmonton's favor once he got reinstful. into the lineup. But Holloway, I think, like, has the most to actually capitalize on this and score a few extra five-on-five goals, which could be the difference in this series, right? Do you want to talk a little about Broberg? I kind of mentioned him here as well. Yeah. Playing, like, 13, 14 minutes a game, nothing outlandish in his three appearances so far,

but I think he showed, like, a visible amount of skating ability and, like, fresh legs and juice that he brings to the table that Vinnie Day Hardy just didn't. I thought he showed real composure, especially in game six, you know, skating away from pressure, like making some relatively aggressive decisions with his feet on zone exits and some of the stuff that I think the Oilers can, like, they can't afford to not have on the back end in this series. Well, and what we've been talking about is this Panthers forecheck is going to force you into that dilemma of you can't just push the puck up the wall and make mistakes.

And unfortunately, guys like CC and Nurse have been around long enough, have been kind of wired at this point of their career, that I think they're just going to do. that and you're going to have to essentially survive those moments. Broberg, because of the inexperience and the lack of like that being kind of ingrained in his game, I think actually has the ability to enter this series and be like, all right, I'm going to try to make a play here with my feet, right? I'm going to try to carry the puck up the ice. I'm going to try to evade a forechecker. And that could lead the disaster, certainly, if he turns the puck over and quickly gets back into Knoblog's doghouse. But I think he actually gives them a unique weapon to just kind of

counteract that Panthers Forchick that they don't have that much up in the blue line, especially beyond the top pair. I also think the, like, there's an element to which nurse and CC actually, I think, make decent reads in the neutral zone when their team has the puck. I actually think that's something they're both sneaky good at. I think they do it better separately. You know, like, I think if you're able to play Nurse with Kulak and C.C. with Broberg, I feel like that's a nice combo where, you know, CCI actually think has pretty good instincts,

like driving through the middle pretty aggressively through the neutral zone. We saw it when Ryan Suter, when the penalty he drew on Ryan Suter, the breakaway chance that he probably should have gotten a shot off on, but, you know, whatever, he was, he was slashed. That was a truly amazing sequence of hockey. It was unbelievable. Yeah. But, you know, and I think you see that, you know, you see that a lot from them, actually,

is the way their defense activates. So I actually like the calibration of those pairs a little bit better, as much as I, you know, will continue to think that Daharney's penalty. penalty killing might be worth going 11-7. Well, something they do, and I think you'll see this a lot, is their forwards have done a really good job of getting low to support, right? In particular, guys like Ryan Nugent Hopkins, and you saw a ton of it from McDavid in the broadcast in game six, I think,

was actually kind of highlighting some of these breakouts that they were running that was allowing them to get out of the zone because they just don't want to put too much on the plate of their second and third-payer defensemen. What that creates then is this situation where the weak side defender gets to sprint up the ice, and that's where you're kind of highlighting there, where CC even for all as deficiencies as a player and sometimes ability to look bad or get into trouble, he's actually quite good at joining in the neutral zone

and kind of sprinting that middle lane and turning a two on two into a three on two or something and then affording their forwards an opportunity to join the rush themselves. The issue is in this series, I could foresee them getting it some trouble because they do that a lot. And if there's a bobble or a turnover

in high leverage areas of the ice, the Panthers are really good at quickly pushing it back and taking the puck to the net. And that's a situation where a guy like CC can get himself into a little bit of trouble because if he's just sort of, he doesn't really have the best situational awareness is I think the kindest way I can put it.

And if he doesn't really read it, what's happening, and he just decides like, all right, I'm going to sprint up the ice and we're going to create this three on two. And then all of a sudden, the Panthers actually have the puck because they force the turnover along the wall. That could create a lot of problems for them

where all of a sudden the Panthers have a number's advantage like below the dots. And so I think that's something to watch for. a certain one. Especially because the Panthers live on catching you leaning. It's like the moment your weight is off. Yeah. Broken plays. I mean, they just, they feast on that. I think for me, like both Broberg and I loop in a Kuulak as well, because certainly a less of an unknown, I think he's almost become the prototypical third pair defenseman. Whereas like, you can just play him on the third pair. He's going to get good results.

He can play with anyone. You can move them up in a pinch if you need to, which is what they've done this postseason. But I don't think you ideally don't want to put too much on his plate in terms of like, all right, now you're just a full-time, 22-minute, a night guy, where you're going to be leaning on this because you're going to see the efficiency of road, right? And that's just the reality of... He's the true 4-5, the 4-5,

that we're not politely calling a 4-5, but, like, I can actually do it. Exactly. And so how Ham and Broberg perform in this series is huge, because if they're able to hold up, that'll allow Noblog to feel more confident about actually running his defense pairs this way and not putting too much on the plate of the top pair.

if there's struggles early on, I think we've already seen this postseason that he'll probably just go back to certain Nisi, nurse and Zisi together. And that's a problem. Like as soon as that happens, it's like a warning light is flashing very rapidly at you. And so I think just resisting some of the urges

to do bad stuff is almost one of the most important things for the oilers here. Because I think the best version of them, which is what we've seen at parts of postseason, can certainly hang with. this panthers team at 5-1-5. The nurse and C-C of it all, too, I think it's worth watching. The nurse and C-C-C-E of it all?

I love that. Is worth watching in the wake of game six, given that the team had success doing it, so maybe they have some confidence in their approach, but really shouldn't. Yeah. Because for the most part, it wasn't even that they were denying Dallas stars' chances. The stars just kept missing. Yeah. And I think it's really important.

Knoblock's been pretty good about Nod. knowing when his defense is actually good, or his goaltending is actually good versus not. We saw it with Cal Pickard, you know, taken out of the net again after like a 30 plus, say, performance in which, you know, he was kicking rebounds into the plot like it was his job. So, you know, I don't expect Knoblock to be fooled by it, but he has to not be because that sort of pressure is something the Panthers will make you pay for

if they're able to apply it at anything like the intensity that Dallas managing game six. And as much as it was game state or series effects, whatever, like lots of things went into what happened there. But I do think, you know, the level to which the club began to lean on their most negative personnel. And, you know, just stylistically, they're players who are most likely to be in position away from the puck, but least likely to carry it out, you know, I think was a contributor to what we saw in terms of the oilers getting caved in territory. Yep. Okay. Here's the next one for me, the goalies.

I lump them both together here. we can break them down one-on-one, kind of compare and contrast. For Florida. So far this postseason, they've gone through Vasilevski in round one, swam in round two, and Shostirkin in round three, right? And that's, I think, by any measure, like a true murders or a gauntlet of top NHL goalies. Now, Stuart Skinner's playing really well heading into this from like a results perspective, right, ever since he got reinserted back into the lineup for game six against the caducs.

I think he's at like a 9-20, say, percentage in those eight games. I thought he was legitimately good against the stars, right? Like he did the job. He outplayed Jake Godinger. He didn't give up bad goals, most importantly for the most part. Like there was a few bounces along the way, but I didn't think anything. And then he was like particularly egregious. It's one of those weird ones where he deserves so much credit for the series.

Yes. But he's getting too much credit for game six. Well, because, and we've talked about this, so much of hockey analysis is results-based where you just like look at the box score or how it played out and then you form your opinion on how guys played based on that. And I think in cases like this, similar to Cal Pickard in that game he played in Vancouver, you watch it. And the broadcast was talking about like, oh, Stuart Skinner, he's so in control here.

And I'm like, I just don't know if I'm watching the same game because I could count at least five or six times where he clearly didn't know where the puck was. And credit to him for keeping the puck out of the net, making saves. But also I think that game could look wildly different if I think it was Matthew Shane just shoots it into an open net in like the second period or whatever. Rupa Hintz's post, the goal against, like there was at least five or six instances like that where I thought the stars kind of let them off the hook. A lot of the rebounds they were getting around the net were just missing the net as well.

And so the Panthers are really good at those. And so we'll see what happens. I think you'll take these results any day of the week. And what are we talking about? Like if the Oilers can just get a certain baseline, say, percentage, that's probably good enough for them. And Stuart Skinner is clearing that easily so far. But I do think there's stuff,

if the Panthers are rewatching that tape, that you could possibly kind of target and exploit just executing a little bit better. And so much of it was down low in that game, which usually is not Skinner's sort of primary weakness, right? No, it's more movement up high, right? Yeah, it's the lateral movement side of the equation, which, you know, isn't as much the Panthers bread and butter,

although I do think there's some vulnerability too on like quick shots off the wing on the rush and the Panthers, you know, Verhege and... Carter Verhege is like, say no more. There is an element to which, you know, if you're betting player props and stuff like that, like Verhege's preferred method of scoring does feel like a uniquely attractive matchup

with, you know, one phase of the game that Skinner struggles in most. Well, especially he took so many shots in that Eastern Conference final, and I believe the two goals he scored were one where he shot it and Alexei Lafrenier just kind of put it through Shisterkin's lens in game one. And then the game four goal where he was in front of the net

and like the puck bounced off Ryan Lingren and then he batted it in a baseball style. And it's like he actually didn't really score off of an actual shot. Yeah. And he's a very good shooter who's shooting a lot. And so I feel like if he keeps getting that volume, I would expect a few of those to start going in. So I think that's an interesting thing to watch.

I guess Carter Verhege is the other X factor that we buried in this goaltending thing. Good point. Yes. This is the Carter Verhegey section. Yeah. Now that you mention it, I think that's good. But Brovsky. So 908, say a percentage for the playoffs.

I was surprised to see his cons my thoughts. I'm not sure if you've looked these up, but he's tied right now with Sasha Barkov, only behind Connor McDavid for the best, or I guess most likely, a player to win the cons might. And I find that surprising, because I guess on the one hand,

if he has a superhuman Stanley Cup final here, right, where he makes a bunch of big saves on McDavid and Dre Seidel. Or if the Panthers have a superhuman defensive performance, and he goes off like he did against Carolina last year. But I don't really see that in the range of outcomes. For as much as I like this Panthers team defensively, and we've kind of saying their praises, certainly, the Oilers are going to get looks.

Regardless of what you do, they're going to get quality looks along the way. And so it's going to be incumbent on him. If he makes a bunch of highlight real saves that get ingrained in your brain after all these games, I guess you could talk yourself into it, especially since Barkov enforcing it kind of split a lot of the credit defensively they've done so far,

and Matthew Kachuk hasn't really, blown anyone away with his offensive production. So maybe the opening is there. But I don't know. I struggle to sort of make that case right now and it feels unlikely that that's what would transpire in this series for a Panthers win. I mean, for me, if I was handicapping it,

like I just don't see value in Bobrovsky there because it really feels like one C on each team and then one D on each team, right? Like Bouchard Foresling, I think, is the, like, which... So cons my... ballots for those that don't know are three names long. You fill out three names. And I feel like if you're going into this as a potential voter, I think you're looking at it and thinking which of those 2D is in the third spot. Right. I think that's like that's just what my sense would be that voters would

that's my gut check sense of where a voter would be at right now. So I just don't think Barowski would enter into that mix. I feel like he should be fifth in terms of best odds at this point. Well, so 908 percentage, as I said, he does have an 858 high danger say a percentage. And that's really, really good. And I think that passes. I was just looking at natural stat trick. And that, I think, passes the test where he has made some high degree of difficulty Cs, which is what he does, particularly on the lateral movement, one-on-one. You're not going to beat him down low, all that stuff.

They've been showing these graphics on the Sportsnet broadcasts of, like, how few goals have been beating them either five-hole or low at all. That's pretty much all up high. and the Rangers in particular, I think, had a lot of success in that conference final shooting at his head. Like, essentially, like, even from spots where we don't initially think of it, right? We know, like, the goal line stuff now

has really become in vogue, but, like, the Troche goal, for example, he's, like, a direct shot up high in the high slot, and he's clearly going, like, for his ear, and it's easy to say, all right, well, that's, like, a perfect shot if you execute. It doesn't matter who the goalie is. It probably will score.

But I think that's something you put on tape, and I'm curious to see if the oiler, kind of make a habit because they do have some good shooters atop the lineup that actually can lift the puck and so maybe they try to exploit that. Well, and I thought the Oilers, it was interesting to watch them figure out Shilovs in particular in that second round series because, you know, they figured out the Oilers before that series even started. But the Shilovs of it all, right, where Shilovs is an athletic, young goaltender who's like pretty disciplined technically, and the Oilers are trying to do the stuff that they do better than

anyone else on the planet, which is like generate down low, generate in the low slot, right? Generate with lateral movement. And she loves was making those saves. But once they changed up how they were attacking and it was especially noticeable on their power play, where, you know, a real emphasis on the perimeter shots, right? They had success from the dry-sidal angle low and then they started spamming that. And then they really started spamming shots through layer traffic, point shots through layer traffic, scored three goals off of those sequences in-game.

Game 7. But it was, you could see them adjust to attack his deficiencies as the series went. You know, I wouldn't say they did the same thing to Audinger because it was just them spamming, like, shots high from in the slot, which is like, you know, that's conventional. Those are the hardest ones to stop. Yeah, I wouldn't, I wouldn't say that Connor McDavid game six goal was him figuring out Ander as much as like, I'm just going to do the coolest thing possible. And, and, you know, the second goal too is, you know, Hyman off the rush from immensely dangerous angle.

So, you know, my point being that I think this Oilers team is versatile enough offensively to problem solve, to problem solve against a goaltender. And it'll be interesting to see if they dust off the Shilov's playbook for Brobowski. Well, I really hope we see a couple of Bobrovsky trying to get across laterally to the Leon Dreisidal dead angle shot on the power play, right? Like, let me see if he can get over and get, because very few goalies have been able to stop that. And I think the reality is that if Dreisidal hits a shot. Mark he's scoring on literally anyone on the world. But Borovsky's probably got the best chance of actually getting across and posing a

threat to it. And then especially the Hyman stuff in front of the net, right, whether he can convert on some of those rebounds, like even Ryan Eugene Hopkins scores a rebound goal on the power play in game five. The Oilers like to get the buck to the net and then really just not Carolina Hurricane style jam away rebounds. They actually like constructively try to like do stuff with it. They smell blood in the water.

They're going to go for it. Of course. Yeah. And so whether Bobowski can actually, could just. hold that off down low or whether they're able to lift it is I think so I'm going to watch. The fact is that there have been times in the last, well, six weeks in Skinner's case, but certainly the last 18 months in Brobrovskys, where both of these goaltenders have been talked about like some of the worst, least reliable starters in the league.

And now we're here. And I feel like we're going to enter this Stanley Cup final with this overwhelming sense that Bobrovsky is a big edge for the Panthers, which may be the case. I'm not going to predict that Skinner outplays Babrovsky anymore than I'm going to predict that Bobrovsky outplays Skinner. These are goalies. You don't know, I don't know. It's fine.

The fact is, though, is that I just kind of think these goaltenders are both like, hey, they've been, you know, their main calling card is that they've been durable and fine. Yeah. And I kind of think they're pretty similar in terms of the quality of performance that both teams can reasonably expect in this. the Cup final. I just kind of reject that it's an edge either way. It's going to be fun to watch. Yeah. And I think there's going to be certainly some hot takes regardless of what happens, right? Yes, you're right. I think, I don't know, is this,

is this kind of like a stupid thing to say that for Skinner, it's just a matter of like not giving up bad goals in the sense, like just don't give up backbreakers. Like, you're going to give up an occasional goal here or there, but just don't let up stuff where it's like, all right, are they going to make the goalie switch here? Whereas like, Bobrovsky is going to be tested, I think, much more in like high danger stuff and then his ability to essentially make those high degree of difficulty saves is can I think determine like whether he's able to keep Edmonton at bay enough or not like because they're going to get the looks like I think we both feel pretty confident in that so they will they will for sure and yeah I think that's also

dovetails nicely your skinner commentary there with the perception of him being in control right there was just no there was when there's no shoulder stump slump moments and when it feels like it's been 10 games since there were those whole team shrugs and it's like oh man the other team has to work half as hard as we do to score. Yeah. You know, I think once you accumulate, like, distance between yourself and the last one of those, I just think there's a certain or a confidence that builds around you. And I think you're right.

Like, I just think Skinner can't deflate his team. No. And I don't think Bobrovsky will. So that might be the edge for Bobrovsky. Yes. I thought Skinner, you know, I kind of said, like, let's temper what happened in game six. I thought, like, because I was rewatching game five along the way as well, I think you noted this yesterday when you were talking about how the star is

kind of started to get back to playing more Dallas Stars hockey, even in that game, despite the results. Part of it was, I think, the Oilers went up 3-0, and that sort of dictated a little bit, but, like, the final five minutes of that second period, and then all of the third period in game five, like, Stuart Skinner actually was in control. I thought he was phenomenal. Like, there were a couple saves. There was the down-low play on the power play to Wyatt Johnston, and he just, like, clinically

moved across and absorbed it with his body and didn't even make it look that difficult, even though it was a great A. And so he certainly got that in him. I just think it'll be interesting to see whether. the Panthers are able to make them uncomfortable, right? Especially, like, I thought this kind of sounds a bit cliche, but the Oilers did such a good job of, like, winning every important battle in that Western Conference final it felt like.

And the stars weren't really creating a lot around the net and, like, challenging Skitter and making them uncomfortable. And the Panthers are certainly going to do so. Like, there's going to be a lot of clips after, after whistles of, like, Matthew Kuchuk skating by and, like, giving him a snow shower and poking at him and Sam Bennett. getting in his face and all this stuff and how he responds to that is going to be huge because I think it can certainly go south, but he's coming into this series, at least with the results, to feel more confident about it.

So let's take a break here. And then when we come back, we'll jump right back into it and keep doing Stanley Cup final X Factor. You're listening to the Hockey-Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here in the Hockeypediodcast with Thomas Jans here from sunny Palm Springs. We're doing our week of Stanley Cup final previews and coverage. We're doing X-Factor. actors today. Here's one. Lundel and Lusterina. Okay. That combination in particular. I know Tarzanco is playing with them and they scored a few goals at the end of that Eastern Conference

final, but those two in particular, they've had a lot of success playing together for a while now, dating back to last year. The results are always really good in large part they win their minutes by just not really giving you much, right? They defend really well. They don't give up a ton to the opposition. In this series, I think it's to be incumbent that they actually generate offense though and win that way as opposed to the suppression perspective, right? And it was good in the final couple games of the Rangers series. I just think they need to keep building on that and scoring a few goals because we've spoken about how for as much as we love Bargob and Foresling,

almost the best case scenario for them in the series is coming out even at 5-on-5. And then we'll have certainly Dreis-Sitle versus Kachuk and we'll see how that matchup plays out. But the one exploitable area for Florida is that line in particular, against, I think they're probably going to get a lot of C.C. Broberg. They're going to get a lot of Adam Henrique's line, I assume. And so their ability to actually punish them and score some goals and potentially give the Panthers a five-on-five edge in that regard is huge for me, right?

And I think they have the skill to do so. They don't always play that way necessarily because I think they've been kind of typecast into this role on this team where, like, they're the third checking line, and that's all they do. But I do think they have some game-breaking skill there. they put that on display against the Rangers. And if they're able to get even a couple five-on-five goals in this series for the Panthers, that could be the difference ultimately.

So I'm watching for those two guys to see whether they can flex their muscles offensively a little bit. Yeah, I mean, the lack of margin that teams have put up against the Oilers bottom six has killed them dead. If you're not offsetting what McDavid and Bouchard are almost certain to do to you and have done to teams throughout this playoff series, I think Bouchard's plus 15, just raw goal differential five-on-five. McDavidson plus nine. I mean, it's silly stuff, video game stuff. If you're not fighting back at that in minutes where you've got, you know, Lundell and Lusteraynen against Adam Henrique and whomever, you know, maybe Ryan McLeod.

And I think there's an interesting discussion about McLeod who sort of, who fits into this mix, I think, a little bit, because I think McLeod falls victim in Edmonton in terms of the discourse around the team to classic third. line center syndrome, which is the problem with the third line center is he's not good enough to be a second line center. Yes. But when you don't have a guy like McLeod, you notice it at an awful one, right? You sometimes don't notice McLeod or you do for the wrong reasons, but you will notice him,

you will notice his absence on teams that, you know, don't have that kind of answer, that kind of a player who, hey, you know what, he might get outscored by the opposition's third line, but not by much. and will help you sort of drive a neutral result at the bottom of your lineup. I'll be curious to see if they can stick with Henrique at center. Especially if he's playing with Evander Cain right now. Like I just like that's not enough footspeed in my opinion. And so if you're at the Panthers and you're looking at that and you're a Lundel,

I think this is an opportunity for you to prove. Like he's gotten some flashes this postseason when Bennett was out to play with Kachukh and Verhaki and I thought he looked perfectly fine in that role. Yeah. But this is your opportunity to actually like attack. I don't think. coming out ahead as a neutral goal differential or like winning by one or two is necessarily enough for them here. Like I think they need to be a bit more ambitious in what they're trying to accomplish than that.

Yeah. And I actually wonder if McLeod Henrique is something, you know, Henrik on the wing. It might be something the Oilers consider on that third line, although it's hard for me to see an optimal Oilers lineup with Oak Fogel in that top nine. That's true. Yeah, no, I'm fascinated because I think the way, to beat the Oilers defensively. And we've seen this along the way, right?

When they're playing the way they got to play for large parts of the West Final, which is we retrieve the puck quickly in the neutral zone, and then we can get back to playing downhill, and then we stack together offensive zone shifts, their defense looks perfectly fine. It's like they're not being exposed to a lot. They're being insulated in a way, and then they're able to get by doing so.

Where they get in trouble, like most defenders, like I don't think this is necessarily novel to them, but where they really show their cracks is when they have to spend extended shifts in their zone because that's where you see like breakdowns. You see kind of that lack of situational awareness where two guys are covering one player and then all of a sudden someone just wide open in the slot and you're like, this is such a classic oilers defensive mistake, right? They've limited that a lot along the way this postseason, but they also haven't really played

a team that's been able to for extended stretches actually force them to do so. We've only seen it kind of here or there sporadically. The Panthers are certainly equipped to do so and we'll try to do so as a game plan. And I think that's where guys like this can really have so a bit of success against them. Yeah. And we've seen the way that an opportunistic finishing team can be a handful for the Oilers, given some of that pension. Right.

You know, again, I come back to that game six. And I mean, Drys Edle has a delay of game penalty. They have like a pretty key icing with about 90 seconds to go that was at least felt somewhat avoidable. You had that shift, the offensive zone shift with dry-sidal McDavid-Hyman, where they load up that top line, but then they just play eat the puck. And it's like, you know, you end up getting Hyman hit an extra time and McDavid too. Like, I mean, that to me was an opportunity to try and play with it a little. Like that was an opportunity. You would have ground more time trying to make skill plays.

That to me is just, you know, the sort of the skill. to killing games thing that I still think that I'm still suspicious of the Oilers with like I still think there's suss killing games because some of that pension for unforced errors and and overly conservative lineup decisions and even like tactical decisions in the moment I still think that's a weakness of theirs especially relative to Florida and and to sort of throw that in the mix not only it do I think Florida is gonna have a far greater chance of stacking one heavy shift on top of another than any opponent that Edmonton has faced so far in the postseason,

but I also think they have the gene to be relatively opportunistic, you know, off of turnovers, off of mistakes. So that's, yeah, I mean, that that's going to be something they have to be sharp and they're going to have to be sharper than they've been to this point. Yes. In the postseason. Yeah. All right. Is it, I lost track here. I think that was my own mind, right? Yeah, yeah. Sirinalundell, do you have a. Well, it's time to talk Sam Bennett, right? Let's do it. Yeah, I think it's time to talk Sam Bennett. Your favorite player. I've been a bit of a skeptic on Bennett, in part because while I recognize that he's like solid and good, you know, so much of his Florida Panthers glow up has come playing with Hubert O before the fall.

Yep. And Kachuk afterwards. And it's, you know, give a hardworking right-handed centerman who plays in straight lines and is, you know, an impactful physical player, an elite player. an elite playmaker perfectly suited to working with him. And I think you're going to get a level of offensive production that I don't think necessarily reflects what you'd get from him in a normal situation. So it's not that I'm not high on Sam Bennett. It's just that I think his offensive.

Context for sure. Yeah. His offensive glow up requires more context than like your average top six center. Yes. But what I do think Sam Bennett can do an extraordinary clip is be annoying. get under people's skin be exceedingly sound defensively. And I then get to the big question

for me that's looming over game one, especially because Paul Maurice has last change, which is on the one hand, you go Bennett versus Drysidal and you're probably at a bit of a size disadvantage from a Florida perspective. You're probably in a position where Drysidal is not as big a threat

to skate away from Benet. but can probably hold him off, like has enough length and weight in that matchup that, you know, below the hash marks dry-sidal with the puck, I don't know that the Oilers will be as happy with Bennett in those spots as they would be with Barkup. On the other hand,

if the Oilers' power play, sorry, if the Panthers power play can break through this Oilers' PK wall, Sam Bennett's so annoying that he is going to frustrate Leon Dricidal over the course of, like, Sam Bennett's far more likely to, to get Leon Drysidal off his game or in the box,

then he is Connor McDavid, because Connor McDavid just... He's a cyborg. He seems completely unflappable. Drysidle's the more emotional of the two. For sure. So, you know, I like that aspect of it. On the other hand,

I do think there's a case to be made that Bennett is better suited to doing the backpack jet ski, you know, Wes Walls defending Brendan Morris and stuff that J.T. Miller pulled off on Connor McDavid as the Canucks limited his explosion to just twice in seven games, which counts as like shutting down McDavid and doing a really good job of it. Indisputably, right? I think Bennett, in terms of being just meaner,

being just like a little more in the way, a little bit more willing to mix it up, than Barkov, who's, you know, the best defensive player in hockey, and yet can trend toward being almost too nice, almost too gentlemanly. Yes. in his approach to the game, which isn't a drawback until you need to spend, you know, every shift interfering with McDavid no less than five times to truly have the sort of success the Panthers are going to need in this series. Yeah. No, I think that's a really good point. I, you know, we spoke about how Bennett certainly looked much healthier and it was very impactful to close out that Rangers series. He scored a bunch of key goals for them. He was just flying around kind of causing havoc and was just giving fits to the Rangers defensemen, right? Like you could tell, like they were hearing the footsteps. And,

They're making a lot of mistakes around him. How he tows that line, though, is going to be incredibly interesting to me, right? Because part of why I've been sort of lukewarm on him as an impactful player the past couple of years is he just takes so many penalties. And that's part of like, that's a feature, not a bug for the Panthers, right? Like, they sort of have embraced that. But I've noticed this postseason, every step of the way, you could tell that they're viewing themselves as not this plucky underdog like they were last year, but a bona fide contender that expects to win the cup this season. And you could see that based on how they've approached all these series where they're certainly doing stuff after the whistle and they're always going to engage in shenanigans. But it's been much more controlled.

And there's like certain times where you can tell like they're very just businesslike in their approach as opposed to what they did last year, which is like absolute mayhem at all times. I think the New York media might suggest to you that the word you're looking for is targeted. Yes. Yeah. Let's let's go with that one. And so how they're able to sort of toll that line in now this series, which you're. truly is about as big of a coin flip as you're going to get at this stage of the season, right? It's like, I think Dom's model has it at 50-50. Like the-50. 50.3 to 49. The cup odds pretty

much reflect like a team that has home ice advantage and getting a slight bump for that, but otherwise pretty much being relatively equal. Absolutely chuck. And so in this series, we spoke about how like Dallas made the mistake of sort of allowing the specter of their opposition to influence their own strategy a bit too much. And, kind of like deferred in that way and then that cost them. I'm not, I don't think the Panthers are really capable of that. Like they're probably entering their series being like,

we're just going to keep playing our exact same way because we're the Florida Panthers and we've had success doing so. But how that goes against McDavid and Dre Seidel will be interesting because they could also foresee a scenario where Sam Bennett does stupid stuff and winds up costing his team by taking a bunch of needless penalties, right? And that being like, well, this is kind of like the dangerous game you play. He's only taken two penalties so far this postseason. I should say he's been whistled for two because I'm sure the Boston Bruins media, for example,

would probably quibble with him only taking two penalties this season or this postseason. But if he's able to sort of get away with it and not taking penalties and not crossing the line, but still being effective with all that other stuff, that's going to be a big thing here, right? Because you cannot give this Oilers power play needless opportunities. Like they're going to make you pay regardless of how good the Panthers BK has been playing. Two penalties for Sam Bennett. All playoffs is a serious.

moment of like growth. Yes. I mean, he's played I think 12 games because he missed a couple along the way there, but still, like that's... Given how reliably, you know, not just penalties, but penalties like 150 feet from your own net. Yeah. Considering how much that's held back his value throughout his career, that he's playing this hard-nosed, that he's annoyed this many different fan bases, and that he's only been in the box twice, that's like he's earned his black arts degree or something, right?

Like he's, that's a really good sign for a Panthers team. Just overall. I like that. There is an extra risk though, right? Yes. When you talk about the Oilers power play and the potential cost of every infraction. Well, what do you think? It feels like penalties have been pretty consistently called even in game sevens.

I feel like I haven't watched a ton of playoff games that have felt truly like the ritualistic swallowing of whistles. Yeah. At center ice. obviously you get into like the final three minutes of that star's Oilers game and it feels like prison rules. Well, we were watching with a couple friends who aren't necessarily watching every single hockey game and they're like, isn't that a penalty?

We're like, it's the final two minutes of a game. You can't get real. The only way you're getting a penalty is putting the puck over the glass, the worst infraction in hockey. Yes. But no, I mean, it's been interesting. I'm also curious just to see the environment of this cup final given that. You know, it's...

I wonder if they'll try to try to. to set the tone early on just to like avoid shenanigans. But that's what usually happens. Right. Is you set the tone early on and then as you go through a series, the whistles diminish massively. But I, you know, I'm just thinking about a lot of these games that I've watched, you know, game sevens, game sixes, overtimes.

And it still felt like the, those moments of prison rules have felt fewer and further more fleeting for sure. Yeah, I think they're getting there in the aggregate. I think along the way, there's a lot of, lot of quibbling certainly with like inconsistency where like three things happen and they're just like gone on called and then something significantly less dangerous to that happens and it's like immediately like that's two minutes and you're like well i thought we i thought we had established that we could do that um so that's kind of frustrating but yeah that'll be interesting to see how that plays out do you want to

let's save someone like it's related to this the the the pk versus power play but we'll do that later in the week when we actually get into more being allowed to talk about the top players i also think like Panthers P.P.1 and Oilers PK1 is honestly, or sorry, opposite. Oilers, Pee1 and Panthers. Well, that's the story too, because the Oilers, there's that stat of how long the Oilers have gone without a short-handed goal or giving up a powerplay goal against. For sure. I just think that's one of the coolest match.

Like, that's one of the most exciting matchups in the series. So I almost feel like we should do a whole segment on it at some point this week. I have to on brand talk about Ryan Longberg here. If we're talking about X factors, because he got removed from the end of that series. I was mystified back because I thought he was playing remarkably well. He was very involved and active and noticeable in good ways. I'm curious to see if he draws back in and he's able to make a bit of a difference because it's the fourth line.

So like the reality is like you're probably not going to win those minutes. But the Rangers did have a bit of success getting that fourth line into trouble in their own zone, particularly like off of icings and kind of like defensive zone draws where they were able to all of a sudden get their top line out against. them and you could really like feel that that was the only time the panthers were getting into trouble at 5-1-5. They're kind of like holding on for dear life in those sequences. And that'll be someone to watch, especially once the series shifts back to Edmonton and they have a bit more control over the matchups and the changes, whether Naublocks able to sort of press down on that and what Paul Maurice does as a result. You know, and we talked a little bit earlier on Monday, the idea that like Oilers fans get so upset when you talk about the McDavid of this all, right? the way that the Oilers are really relying on gashing opponents at the top of the lineup.

But I do think it's worth noting that even if they're not driving goal differential, again, part of the Oilers, like, higher baseline of supporting talent, the fact that they're not giving too much up when McDavid takes a breather, the McDavid plus the Bouchardack home pair plus dry-siddle. I do think Mattias Yanmark and Connor Brown have been, like, good. You know, I don't know if you're going to get a good-drault-like explosion. from one of them, but, you know, I do think that that's a matchup the Panthers have to be conscious of, especially given that Stenland, like, what, was he zero goals for, four, four goals against?

Something like that, yeah. And I'm like, and I think the fourth line has not been quite good. And you can tell Palmirees doesn't really know what to do with it, and it's the fourth line. So like, there's no necessary right answer. But I think it is interesting because you can tell he doesn't really want them out there in the defensive zone because of the issues that I cited. But then that leads to these. plays where like he's trying to get them a few minutes along the way and sometimes that's off

an offensive zone draw and then they get a chance it's like call like pozo one-on-one against the goalie and it doesn't go in and it's like oh it would have been nice if the fourth line wasn't out there but then you get into a situation where it's like well we they don't really ride their forwards that much so they're trying to spread the wealth and where do you get those guys minutes and whether you can get away with them essentially so i actually think we've talked ourselves into a relatively interesting pretzel question no question uh or challenge for the Panthers in this series, which is that, you know,

we talked about the Lusteray and Lundell of it all. We just talked about the weakness of the Panthers' fourth line. And, you know, the idea that the Oilers could have, whether it's Fogel or Ryan or Yanmark or Brown, I mean, I just mentioned sort of their like 10th through 13th forwards. And, you know, I think lots of those guys could be partial answers, frankly, for Edmonton in the top nine. Now, granted, those are answers because the goal here is just like don't get killed.

Yeah. But in addition to the McDavid part of this, are we actually entering a series where in terms of forward depth, the oilers might not be at as big a disadvantage as we feel like they are on paper? I mean, certainly. I think a lot of our points are kind of suggesting. I think certainly. I mean, and that's why I think like that Landell is serenian is, I think, the one area. where the Panthers could distinguish themselves because I just don't really think that

like Henrique and Kane right now can really keep up with that even though they do have Holloway on that other wing and we talked about how much we like his pace. But like that's like I think the skill gap there at this point of their careers relatively does favor the Panthers. The issue is that like the top six certainly

I think could play themselves to a draw and then we feel better about the Oilers special teams and so the Panthers need to make up that gap somewhere and it comes down to essentially that matchup. One, I also I also feel better about the Oilers' answers if things go badly. You know what I mean? Like, I feel better about the Oilers' ability

to bring Fogel back in the lineup, bump Henrique or Kane up, you know, and then you have a third line that all of a sudden looks like, maybe it's Henrique, Fogel McLeod, or, you know, Kane, Fogel McLeod, or whatever. I mean, there's all these different ways that they can handle it. Holloway, McLeod, Fogel,

and all of a sudden you probably have the pace and enthusiasm and youth, to keep up with Lundell Lus Drainan. So, you know, the, as we consider what's widely being priced out as and seen as a coin flip, I do think it's notable that honestly, this might be one of those series where if Lundell and Lusdurayn and don't bring it the way they did against New York, Edmonton's bottom six actually might be a relative edge. Yeah.

More so than some of the series that they've encountered on the way. Yeah. Assuming you're going purely like top line, top line, second line, second line, and that, right? Because obviously if you get sort of mismatches along the way, I do think the Panthers could probably create some stuff against that bottom six. For sure. Yeah, I'm curious to see whether Knoblock's able to be very deliberate and predatory in loading up that top line, right?

Whether it's at home to get them away from the Barkoff-Forzling pairing or whether it's what I just said, which is, all right, we've got an offensive zone draw against a entire group, and it's their fourth line. We're just going to load these guys up right now and try to have this high-leverage shift where we either score or draw a penalty or just totally swing the momentum in our favor and I think that's going to be on the table for him right so how like aggressively they seek that out and try to manufacture

these shifts here or there is going to be fascinating because that's like that's what the beauty is of this series right like the margins are so low I think that like one little shift here or there probably will add up to making the difference and that's what this is all about I can't believe we have to wait for so long until Saturday

I know I can't wait for these games I mean this is just this is remarkable and I'm also proud of us for we left a lot of meat on the bone here in this sort of part one Let's go out of the final preview because I'd go on to get into all the sort of obvious names and candidates and matchups And I think we can certainly have some fun with that but we we resisted the urge for the most part here We wanted to do 10 minutes on Dylan Hall well we wanted to prove how how how deranged and depraved and down bad we are I'm like on having takes on everyone's bottom six We're always talking about like oh Kevin Stenland all right let's go through his five on five shares so far

So that's what you get here in the PDOCAS. Tom, I'll let you do some plugs here. I didn't let you yesterday. I cut you off because we were running out of time. What have you got going on this week? Got some Connucks prospect coverage this week at the athletic Vancouver, the athletic NHL. Follow me on Twitter, Thomas Strands, at Thomas Strance and listen to Canucks talk with me and

Jamie Dodd SportsC, Sportsnet, 650. Awesome, man. Well, this is a blast. And if you want to hear more of Tom, you're in luck because we're going to be chatting with him all week here. And we're going to be doing a lot of other fun stuff to have. help get you ready for this upcoming Stanley Cup final during the week off. That's all for today.

My only plugs are go help us out by smashing the five start button wherever you listen to the show. Join the PDOCAST Discord, which we keep citing. We can have some fun stuff in there. Maybe I think we're going to eventually exhaust all of our talking points on this series. So maybe towards the end of the week, we can do a bit of a Discord mailbag so the listeners can get in questions that we can talk more about some offseason stuff and all that. So in the meantime, thank you for listening.

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