The Hockey PDOcast - Sunday Special - Looking At the Respective Wild Card Races in Both Conferences

Episode Date: January 12, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Thomas Drance to take a closer look at the wild card races that are shaping up in both conferences, where the teams involved are at halfway through the year, and whether there could be an actual changing of the guard this season. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey Pediocast. My name is Amitra Filipovich. And joining me is my good buddy, Thomas Trans. Tom, what's going on, man? Doing well. Coming from, I guess it's the,

it's not the Air Canada Center, Scotia Bank Place in Toronto, where I just watched the Canucks beat the Toronto Maple Leafs. Vancouver's first regulation win in eight tries. But a really sick, Elias Pedersen game and a really sick Quinn Hughes game. So that's always good. Like that's, that was actually even if they only had 17 shots, they led the whole night. They flew in day of game.

But I actually think what we saw tonight was like what the Canucks can look like when they have some juice. And that more than anything has been their issue across the last eight games. So enjoyed seeing sort of a Elias Pedersen turned back the clock in terms of his defensive play. and Quinn Hughes do Quinn Hughes stuff all night. Well, it was kind of the recipe what we spoke about a couple weeks ago when we were, I might have been when we were doing the Bearers Bull case or even before that, but when the Canucks had that stretch

where they shut out the Panthers and the avalanche and kind of threw it back to last year and put together these defensive masterclasses, it was kind of what we were talking about, this sort of vision of what this Canucks team under Rick Tocket, if they're going to be a contender into West, what that looks like, and it is like this. I think both you and I have our concerns or qualms

about the sustainability of banking on having to play this type of game for an extended period of time to actually get those results. It's a very difficult thing to do. It takes a ton of discipline and effort. And we'll see it's a TBD. But I think the takeaway for me in watching that game is that the Canucks best players, and that is part of the thesis of the Canucks is like at full health. And obviously, Philopronic's still not there for the Quinn Hughes pair.

But when you have Hughes and Pedersen and Miller, all of a sudden, like, you actually your top end can match the other contenders in the league. And if those guys are able to win those minutes, then whatever depth concerns you have or secondary pieces don't matter as much. And that's what we saw here, right? Like Quinn Hughes played the majority of his minutes or his primary assignment was the Austin Matthews line. And in nearly 10, 5-1-5 minutes,

they held them to just one shot on goal, which is almost unheard of for anyone to do to Austin Matthews, who even if he's not scoring is still generating a ton of looks at 5-15, and that wasn't the case in this game. And so that in concert with Patterson's performance, and we can speak more about that at length, all of a sudden that's exactly what you need. Exactly right.

And the, you know, let's bookmark this and talk about it in segment two when we sort of naturally get to dwelling on the Canucks. But yeah, there was a deployment change too that I think is one for us to look for as it applies to Patterson and Hughes and sort of Vancouver's top of the lineup deployment. So stay tuned for. segment two when demetri and i will unpack that at greta length you're such a radio guy look at you breaking it down to segment one and segment two doing the tease already two minutes into the show um you mean to do any reads brother no no no no reeds necessary um i'll save that for a kinnock's talk

for you to do um we thought that a fun exercise for today would be taking stock of the league because that's what we do here on the sunday shows and i think the big storyline for me now and obviously in a couple weeks we're going to have the four nations tournament and then we're to look ahead to the trade deadline. I think those are going to predominantly take over a lot of our attention span. I think right now the playoff race is especially the wildcard battles we're seeing in both conferences, but especially so in the east where so many teams are still involved and it's so up in the air is probably the story around the league that has captured our attention the most right

now. And you obviously it helps being out east on the road, watching the Canucks play these teams. You've come across a couple of them, especially the Canadians. I know we wanted to speak more at length about them here today. I feel like that ties it neatly. So maybe that's how we should start today's show, kind of looking at that, looking at the teams involved, sort of where our mileage lands on them right now in terms of the way they're playing and what their stock is and kind of look ahead to that

because I feel like, I mean, these are almost uncharted waters, right? Like last year we had that East Race with Washington, Detroit, and Philly down the stretch. And obviously a bit of a turtle race. Washington winds up coming out ahead. the last day, it's still the case this year in terms of you look at the projection for the point pace these teams are on and how it's going to take like a herculean effort just to get into the 90s for whoever comes out ahead amongst these teams, which is kind of wild to think about. But some of these teams are actually playing much better of late.

And I feel like that's a good topic of discussion for us, especially this Canadian team, which tonight, as we're recording on Saturday night, took Dallas to overtime, lost in a shootout, but extended their point streak, kept their streak in particular alive, of playing really good teams to legitimate battles. And that's a massive departure from where they were at previously in the season where anyone would just walk into Montreal

and do whatever they wanted offensively against them. They've actually been playing serious hockey of late. So I do think that's notable. What did you think, you know, being there at the Bell Center, watching the Canadians and this newer version of them, what your takeaways were from kind of that in-person viewing experience? Yeah.

So first of all, it was my first time since he was at BU seeing Hudson Live, right? And when he was at BU, you know, especially those minutes that he'd play with Celebrini, as you can imagine given what they're doing at the NHL level, right? What they were doing against a bunch of 24-year-olds that play for Merrimack 12 months ago was ludicrous. And in fact, it was so dominant and it was so clear that those two had this like, were on a higher level than everyone else mind meld, that, you know, it's difficult. Like I found Hudson to be a particularly difficult evaluation

because we, like, you're watching it and you kind of know that Celebrini is the driver. He's got more of the puck through the neutral zone. And yet you knew that Hudson was able to think the game the same, at the same level as him or thereabouts. And yet, how do you sort of, with these offensive type defensemen, you know, if you're not super elite in terms of being able to escape guys and being able to produce it just a preposterous level and be like a power play one fixture, you know, like the skating skill that you can't even really see in terms of NHL until you get these players at the NHL level sort of facing down NHL four checkers and NHL game plans. like the line between a Bokvist and a Ty Smith who hit Waivers a Ken today and a Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, Kail McCarr. Like, I actually think it's finer than people realize and it comes down to some mechanical skating stuff that I find very difficult to ferret out until I'm seeing guys against NHLers.

And even earlier this year, I was like, I don't know that Hudson falls on the star side of this line as opposed to the specialist offensive defender that maybe doesn't ever hit that. star level. And if you don't hit that star level, it's, it's sort of really sick. You, you almost have no floor as an NHL contributor when you fall in this player type. I have none of those concerns. Like some of what Hudson was doing earlier in the air, skating himself into trouble, sort of struggling to manage games, maybe feeling the pressure a little bit even, despite his skill level, especially as he was, you know, first past stuff. I think all of that has improved so massively across like the last 30 games. And if he can keep up that trajectory,

I mean, there's no question what side of that line he's going to fall on. So I'm really excited in what I'm seeing in terms of his improvement specifically. And then the Canadians as a team, you know, I think they're, I think they're playing some really interesting hockey dim. Like they're leaving the offensive zone with possession sometimes to set up rush chances five on five, right? they're breaking out. It's actually almost throwback Montreal Canadians like Jacques Martin era with all the undersized forwards. They they're breaking out with set breakouts like, you know, the dismissive way to put it would be it's almost roller hockey.

But it's working. It's cool. And it takes a ton of advantage of their speed. You know, they were generating at will against the Canucks. And increasingly you just find them sort of regroup, go back behind their own net and attack the Canucks in these like organized team moves. as a breakout and they took over that game in that fashion when I saw them on Monday and sort of watching them since with sort of more of an eye toward that because it's so striking when you can see it live and see have a good sort of view of of the 200 feet of ice. You know, I think the way that they're combining the speed that they have up front especially, but also when they have that Hudson-Matheson pair on the ice at the same time, I think is really thoughtful. I think it's really fun to watch. And then you add into it this sort of more robust

five-on-five gear that I think they've found with Carrier and Gouley, right? This Carrier Gouley pair that's all of a sudden, you know, doing some really good things in tough matchups. I'm starting to get pretty excited about what that team can look like down the stretch and the sort of ceiling case for them. I am too. I think on the Hudson note, obviously even early in the year, he was logging a bunch of minutes while they had injuries and he was putting together highlight real plays but the underlying numbers weren't really matching it up and I think that was understandable for a rookie defenseman playing a ton of minutes on a bad team you're going to see wonky 5-on-5 results right I did want to note that in the past 13 games and a lot

of those coming against very heavy teams like the two florida teams Vegas even the conucks defensively he's gone 13 straight games now where the Canadians have outshot the opposition at 5-on-5 with him on the ice and I think so they're winning those minutes beyond just kind of flashy plays there's legitimate 5-on-5 substance to it they're up 50 to 7 in those minutes and I do think it's a great shout with the impact that bringing in carry a allowing him to play with Gully and giving them a pair that can eat up those defensive minutes and I thought Gouli like in that game that you watched against the Canucks was phenomenal like he was so yeah he wasn't even involved he doesn't really

you're not going to get much offense and I think that's okay because that's kind of like a nice Ying and Yang to what you're going to get from a Matheson-Hudson pair. So in terms of slotting into their specific roles, I think they fit in very nicely there. I was going to ask you, do you, because there's this glut of teams in this Eastern Conference wildcard race, right? Pretty much there's like five to seven points separating, what, seven or eight teams at this point?

And obviously some teams have played more than others. But just looking at Adomloos-Gishin's projections and playoff probabilities, I do find it still surprising. And I think a lot of this is lingering effects of like, early season data that portrayed these teams incredibly poorly, that a team like the Canadians is at 7% to make the playoffs. The Blue Jackets are up to 23 now, but that's still lagging behind teams like the Bruins, Islanders, Penguins, and even the Rangers. And this might just be reasoncy bias and kind of being enamored, I guess, by the shiny new toy. But in watching

this Canadians team, and especially this Blue Jackets team, which put together another really good game on the road in St. Louis tonight and winning 2-1, I find that they're upside, I guess, or like the story that I can tell myself about what the second half of the season could look like for them. I find that much more compelling than what you're seeing from this Bruins team in particular.

I know they scratched out a win in Florida on Saturday, but shot attempts heading into that overtime or like 110 to 35 or something for the Panthers. It snapped a six or seven game losing streak for the Bruins. they have no offensive juice. And I think just comparing those teams, I know there's more of an infrastructure and familiarity and history, and maybe that's playing into this.

But I just find that sort of calculus, I guess, to be a little bit off because, I don't know, am I crazy in saying that I just think this Blue Jackets team is outright better than the Bruins right now? No, I don't think you are. And so tell me quickly, because you read off the Blue Jackets and the Montreal Canadians, will you also tell me the Auto-Assadians? senators playoff probability per Dom's model.

The auto centers are leading the pack right now at 41 and they stomp the penguins 5-0 on the road in Pittsburgh. Very impressive today. And then you've got the penguins 32 percent, Islanders, 31 percent, Bruins 29, Rangers 28, blue jackets 23, Canadian 7. Sabers actually ahead of both the Red Wings and the Flyers at 5 to 4 and 3 respectively. Yeah. I don't know if I agree with that.

I think like we can talk about this blue jackets. team, but I know they defensively are still quite poor, but Zach Wrenski is playing at such an old world level right now, and we've seen Dean Everson willing to play him into the 30s if the situation calls for it. And even with Monaghan out now, Fantili's slotting in and providing a bit of offensive juice next to Vrancov and Marchenko. That pair is up 29 to 9 at 5-1-5 this season, Marchanko and Vrancov are. Like, they're legitimately, their fastball in terms of when they have those guys out with Wrenski is just better than it. anything, any of these teams can really provide at the top end of the lineup. So I don't know. I'm

not sure. TBD, I guess, we'll see more of this, but I feel like the way the blue jackets and the Canadians are playing right now is very interesting. The flyers themselves as well have been scorching hot at 515. They just have no goal tending and very minimal finishing ability, like last season, of course. But I don't know. Just seeing the Bruins, Rangers, penguins, and islanders there, I don't think that passes the smell test to me. Well, I think this is a very interesting dynamic that we're bumping into in the Eastern Conference and, you know, captioning this too with, we don't bet on hockey. Yes. But the Boston Bruins have this name value, right?

That they're associated and they should be associated with this ability to defy gravity. The Bruins Black Magic subject matter that you know I'm so obsessed with. I'm not saying it's run out, but if it has, I do think it's worth noting right now. that pretty clearly, if you watch these teams play, like their struggles to generate offense, the true pop gun nature of their game at five on five, you know, I think is in stark contrast with the way that the blue jackets,

senators and Canadians on a night when they're on can actually like skate an opponent off the ice, can blow the wheels off you. Now, their younger teams almost across the board, the senators also have these injury issues in net that I think rightly have us a little bit more concerned. You know, Blue Jackets and Canadians are, and I think the senators too are liable to do some of those youthful things that lose teams games. But like right now as we sit, if we just sort the teams beneath like in the wildcard race by point percentage instead of by actual points, the Bruins are already behind the senators, the habs. and the blue jackets.

Right? Like the fact that they have more total points than the other teams and like remain, I feel like it offers people some comfort. I feel like the market right now is potentially slow to react to what's happening to the Bruins in fact. And so if you look at playoff odds to make the playoffs in the NHL right now, like you'll find the Bruins at minus 115 and you'll find the blue jackets and the habs at like six and a half or five and a half to one respectively like that's a mispricing I think

given the quality of those three teams the senators are closer to the Bruins by the way they're like minus 125 and and you know I that would be one where I I'd like suggest that the to miss the playoffs is probably a stay away but to me Bruins to miss would look like a value and both the habs and the blue jackets would look to me to be buys I know that This is me belatedly looking to buy high on the Habs, but I'm comfortable with that. I actually have really liked the way that their game is trending. There's not all win streaks are created equal or winning stretches are created equal. You know, there's worlds where the Habs would be beating like the avalanche and the Golden Knights and the Canucks and on and on.

And I wouldn't be buying it, but it's the way that they're playing the way that they're controlling play, the structural integrity that they brought that's absolutely capturing. my attention. And then I think there's more of a story you have to tell yourself with the Blue Jackets, but I also think there's potentially more upside, you know, given sort of the quality of prospects and young players that guys like Fantilli and Kent Johnson even are, not to mention what Varanco and Marchenko are already able to do five on five. Yeah, and integrating Matechuk recently as well. I expect these players to get better. I do think, like, I'm with you. I think the Blue Jacks are 26th in point percentage in games decided by one goal.

And we talked about that with the Utah Hockey Club where that's kind of probably an indicator that some of it's bad luck. Some of it is probably a young team kind of learning how to scratch out close games, especially when they may not deserve to win them. But this Bruins team right now is 29th in goals per 60 the season. Only the sharks, ducks, and predators generate more like the Blackhawks are scoring goals more frequently than the Boston Bruins are this year. And I think people got two.

overreactive after the coaching change. As we highlighted at the time, it was the perfect time to do so because they had this incredibly Cupcake part of their schedule. And it was smart on their end to do so when they did to allow Joe Sacco to succeed early on and to kind of like re-invigrate them. But we've seen the wheels come off here recently and watching them against the Panthers. They just like never had the puck. And David Pashtenac winds up with two goals and an assist on their four goals.

And he's been much better of late, despite all the drama that's been surrounding. him and Marshawn and yet if he's not creating they're just not going to really score at all. And so, I don't know. I think the Blue Jackets have really captured my imagination here in terms of the way they're playing. There's probably going to be some games where the bottom just kind of falls out on them. But what's interesting in this discussion is I was noting this on a show earlier this week. I feel like the Blackhawks are really the only team in the league right now that is just completely dead in the water in terms of being like your true traditional bad all caps letters team right

there's other bad teams in terms of record like the sharks are not much better themselves although they're playing way more competitive close games everyone askerov's in that they actually have a chance to beat pretty much anyone as they did with the lightning of the devils last week um the predators we heard eliot friedman today talking about how like they're entertaining calls about Ryan O'Reilly, but we'll see on that. I don't imagine them selling that much regardless, because I feel like they're much more likely to chalk this up as a lost season and try to get back at it in the offseason. The Sabres are going to be involved in every trade rumor, but I don't see them taking on a bunch

of money or making massive financial investments to this team at this point. So you look up and down the league, and as we look ahead to the trade deadline, which is what, six weeks away or now or so, less than two months. how many sellers are there actually right now? Some of these teams might be prudent for them and maybe in the next six weeks, they'll kind of come to that conclusion that they should be sellers

and they might just jump ahead of the market and sell. But as we kind of think about, all right, which contenders can add this player from this rebuilding team or whatever? I feel like that list is kind of dwindling by the day because so many of these teams and especially ones like the Red Wings, for example, they're so incentivized to keep plowing ahead

and trying after the kids. coaching change to get back into the playoffs under Steve Iserman that they certainly won't admit defeat. So a lot of these teams are either going to stand pat, I think, or even try to kind of buy on the margins. And so when we look at buyers and sellers and what the trade market's going to look like, it might be thinner than it's ever been, which is kind of scary to think about because often it's a very disappointing one. Maybe a trade will come out of left field the way the Tomas Hurdle won did at the end of last year's deadline. But I don't really see too many of those deals on the board right now, unless a team like the Rangers, for example, just

decides to just fully go in that direction, but even they're kind of hamstrung in a couple of ways contractually. Yeah, I mean, it could be a very unique by a seller's market given those forces, right? If a team, whether it's the Rangers, whether it's the predators, you know, maybe it's one of those teams that's very much in the mix, but they decide to sort of do the hybrid thing, right? Where you, where you sell an overpriced guy and try and buy back, you know, a sort of lower priced, but a guy you think can still sort of fill the role. I think about like the San Jose Sharks. I don't remember. I think it might have been like Ryan Klo or something like that that they sold and then turned around and bought Rafi Torres or I think they did the same selling Doug Murray to the Pittsburgh

Penguins and then turned around and bought some sort of lower end stay at home defender who ended up outperforming Douglas Murray. So I think there's some interesting opportunities available to to these teams and I hope there's some creativity because otherwise, you know, we might be out of luck in terms of what we have to talk about and break down here, Tim. Yeah, I mean, the Islanders are kind of holding up the market, right? Because they, especially with the impending UFA deals for Brock Nelson and Kaup, Palmieri, there's like at least 10 teams that I could fantasy book those players fitting beautifully on. Yeah. And yet, Lou Lamarillo is probably not going to do so unless he's forced to. And even they're kind of hanging around. They've

39 points at 41 games. They just shut out the Golden Knights on the road. They're sticking around long enough, right? And they've been battling a bunch of injuries themselves with Bursal out a while and do Claire and so on and so forth. And now they're getting healthier. So they're probably going to hang around over these next six weeks. So yeah, what that market looks like and how it shakes out is going to be interesting. But I think this East Race is even more compelling to me than it was last year because last year was such a war of attrition and the capital's ultimately being the one to win it felt so undeserved in a way because of their goal differential. And it was anticlimactic.

Yeah, it was. Well, no, that last day was incredible with John Torrella late. It was, but also you don't want it, you don't want it ending on a arbitrary coach's decision, you know, like it wasn't, it wasn't like a team grabbed it by the lapels and like, you know, earn their way into the playoffs and then went in with the momentum of they've been playing playoff hockey for weeks, you know, it was kind of a cannon fodder caps team that backed their way in in some ways. And anyway, just an annual, just an annual plea once again,

that if you were talking about the stakes of a play in here, right? Like some single game elimination between these, this four, this group of four, this blue jackets, haves, Ottawa ruins, you know, those four sides, throw in the possibility of Pittsburgh or Detroit, spoiling the party for one of them. that's just better drama. It's just better drama.

I'm going to leave it there, but my annual plea that the plan is what we need. Well, in talking this through, I think partly why I'm so intrigued by it is because, and this might be wish casting on our part, but the Canadians, the blue jackets and the centers

were the three teams right now atop that race by point percentage. This would represent a fundamental shift, I guess, not in the league's hierarchy, because we're talking about the seventh and eighth seeds in the Eastern Conference

and struggling to get to 90 points. So we're not talking about like, oh, they've, they've climbed to the mountaintop. But for so many of these teams, especially out east, we've been waiting for this changing of the guard for what feels like half a decade now. And the idea that it's actually happening right now, I do, I'm, I'm intrigued by. And I want to follow it more closely. But I feel like it's notable. And that's why we started today's show talking about this is our lead subject. Like the Blue Jacket's sitting in the first wildcard spot by point percentage right now is pretty cool, considering how far they've come and where we were at with them in the off season and last year

and how we were lamenting like they were playing this boring low event, low scoring style. And now all of a sudden, if they're six in the league in scoring and their top players are amongst the most fun players to watch in the league. And so I think that development is incredibly cool. Yeah. And you like to see teams get rewarded for playing the style of hockey that them and the Canadians in particular are. Right. So the Eastern Conference Wildcard Turtle Derby, because until it's projected to end in the 90s,

we're going to call it that, is shaping up to be, I think, one of the most intriguing storylines between now and the end of the year. It is. All right, Tom, let's take our break here. And what do you call it?

Segment 1 and segment 2 as a radio professional? We're going to take a break. Let's do it. And then we're going to go over a segment 2, and we're going to switch over the West and talk a little bit about the Western Conference. You're listening to the Hockey Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.

work. All right, we're back here in the Hockey PEOCast with Thomas Trans. Tom, in part one, we were talking about the Eastern Conference Wildcar Race. Let's switch gears and talk about the West now, which is less jam-packed, I guess, in terms of contestants, because it really feels like it's boiled down to three teams for one spot. Essentially, the eighth seed, the second wildcard, which is between the Canucks, the Flames, and the Utah Hockey Club. Now, throwing a monkey wrench in this is the fact that we just.

saw the flames lose Conner Zeri, and I think he'll be out for a while. I saw Frank Sarvelli tweeted that Craig Conroy said, like, oh, he'll be back at some point this season, and I'm like, well, there's 40 plus games left, so that's not good that that's the way you're framing it. It's going to be at least a handful of weeks, if not a couple months. And then Dylan Gunther is obviously out with his lower body injury as well, although I'm intrigued by the fact that what they decided to do is essentially just bump Logan Coolly up to center Keller and Schmaltz in his stead and load those guys up.

And I want to see more of that. But all those teams are within a couple points. I think even heading into today, the flames were technically in that spot on point percentage, and the Canucks win bump them into it. But this seems like it'll be sort of a back and forth. Seesaw, we were citing Don Lus Chishin's projection model and playoff probabilities for the East. His still heavily favor the Canucks. I think he has them around 75% or so.

And then Utah down, like in the low 20s and then the flames in single digits, essentially. And how do you feel about that? Do you think that is right? Because obviously the Canucks have the inside track, I think, especially with these recent injuries I just referenced. But it does feel like it's more up in the air, I guess, for me than maybe those numbers would indicate. Yeah, well, going into tonight's game in Toronto, the Canucks were at minus 160 to make the playoffs. So that's an implied probability that's almost 20 points shy of Dom Lecisions projection. You know, Dom's model, I think, has been a lot higher on the Canucks than Vegas and a lot higher on the Canucks than the other projections systems that are that are out there in the public sphere.

Like, you know, I think on MoneyPuck, for example, they've been sub 50% at times, which I also think is wrong, by the way. I think the Vegas handle on this makes the most sense to me, like sort of a two-thirds shot at this point. And I think we saw again in Toronto why the Canucks should be the clear favorite, you know, yes, their inconsistency has gone in and out, although I would note, I think their five-on-five games actually stabilized since Christmas, and some of the inconsistent effort stuff, which I think was sort of the hockey reason, that the locker room dysfunction trade rumors talk has overshadowed everything else, both in the Vancouver market and around the team, but over the past few weeks, over the past month, really.

I think that's kind of gone. Like, even though the Canucks, for example, on this road trip I've been covering them on, have lost every game until tonight. I would not have said at any point that they're like effort level flagged. Right? They had a truly dismal performance against the Carolina Hurricanes where you could see the downside of the way that they go about generating offense. But, you know, they were full value for the defensive play and for the battle level that they showed in that game. likewise against the caps, likewise against the Montreal, Canadians, both games that were decided in overtime.

So, you know, here's one thing that they did on Saturday, though, that really has my attention. And I think backs up why they need to be viewed as being materially in a different tier than Utah and Calgary, even if the standing seemed narrow at the moment. But Pedersen was playing his second game since returning from an injury he's sustained against the San Jose sharks right before Christmas. And in this game, the Canucks like jumbled up their top six. But the fundamental change wasn't, you know, oh, you know, Brock Besser is playing with Pedersen, right? It's not Niels Hoaglander back in the top six. Like that's not the story. The story is that they flipped the deployment of Elias Pedersen and J.T. Miller.

right and the way that the Canucks have been doing this and we've talked about it a lot in this on your show and on my show over the years is they sort of play Miller with Hughes self-match that line and that pair and sort of go after teams as a five-man unit at the top of their lineup and then trust that Pedersen's two-way game can help insulate you know the weakness on their second and third pairs and on Saturday against the Leafs they flipped that it was Pedersen playing on an awful lot against the top of the end, lineup competition that the Leafs were throwing out, although Tocke didn't have last change, with Hughes, and it was Miller in that Pedersen spot. And man, you got an awesome performance from Pedersen tonight, especially defensively, especially in those minutes against Matthews and company.

I mean, there was an element to which, and I spoke with him briefly about it, and not that he put it in these terms, but, you know, I think the, there's a real sense, I think, that he has, that he was like challenged in a new role, like challenged and given an opportunity to play with the best players against the best players, that he felt a responsibility to rise to. And man, if they're going to get anything close to the version of Leas Pedersen that we saw tonight,

which we haven't seen very often over the last 11 months, as he'll acknowledge, that then, you know, there's no, there's no two players on any of the other Chase Pack wildcom. contenders in the West that have anything like the ceiling that Hughes and Pedersen offer the Canucks if they're both firing at their best, which obviously Hughes has been doing all year and which Pedersen, you know, has not, but certainly looked like a player, looked like the player we've seen who has all that juice and all that pop and all

that ability to take over games in, in all three zones. If he looks like that repeatedly over the second half, I mean, the Canucks are going to make the playoffs. I think with relative ease over the other two contenders. Which is precisely why I find every single story that comes out about a rumor of a Canucks listening to trade talks on him or exploring it or teams being interested and all this sort of stuff that ensues to just not really pass the smell test for me.

I think there's probably something internally where it's like if you just decide you want to move on from the relationship and you want to get out ahead of it and make a deal. that's one thing, but this is a team that's not so all in this season, but especially after last year is pretty committed and should by all rights of view itself as the heavy favorite to make the playoffs amongst these teams they're competing with. And for any of that to come to fruition and for them to realize whatever their theoretical ceiling is or whatever their A game was and what we saw last year, I think it's it's hinging almost entirely on Pedersen being that player. there's no hockey trade in my opinion that's out there right now where it's like they can make this deal and retain any of that this season it could be a futures oriented deal i guess with young players or picks or prospects or whatever where it's like all right we recouped a lot of value and then we can turn that into something else at some point but for this season not like he just has to play at

this level for them to have any sort of chance at competing and so i just don't see a deal, any deal they could make out there really that would allow them to continue down this path, I guess. And so that's why I just, every time I hear something about it, I'm just like, this is just people drumming stuff up because I just don't really find that there's any, they might be exploring it, but I just don't really see anything ultimately happening there. Yeah, it feels like it would repudiate all of their moves and the big picture, like the global decision they made sort of in firing Boudreau when they did, buying Heronic when they did, extending J.T. Miller to sort of go all in on this core group, right? It feels like all of that

gets repudiated. It's a sudden and abrupt change of direction and one that I think would pose some really difficult questions in terms of why this was unsustainable. I just think in season, not only are these deals difficult to execute, but whether it's Pedersen or Miller, but especially the Patterson given his age and the contract and the obvious upside. You know, I, Like, it doesn't, I don't really understand why a team position the way they would, would sort of spoil a chance for this to hit, which still exists. You know, they've still played very few games with all their best players in the lineup. Thatcher Demko's, you know, only nine games in to this season. There's been very few games where they've had.

In fact, they haven't played a single game with all of like Demko, Heronik Hughes, Miller, Petterson in the lineup. Like that hasn't happened yet this season. I feel like you have to see it before you detonate, you know, a sort of core group that you've spent taking like years to set up, assemble, lock up to long term contracts and surround as best you can with, you know, a supporting cast good enough for them to make the playoffs annually, which I think they are at that level, even if the last month has been painful to watch. So it seems like things would have to be almost worse than is reported behind the scenes for the club to not give them even like a college try down the stretch before disassembling this. I mean, obviously when you're paying someone 11.6 or whatever they're paying them right now in terms of A.AV, you're paying for the 100 point player he was two years ago and nearly 40 goals. And he obviously hasn't been up to that standard this year or really since like the second half of last year. and I think that's a fair concern. But the impact you saw that he had on the game on Saturday night in Toronto,

even on Friday night where there were so few bright spots for the Canucks, him drawing a couple penalties and being involved early, it just shows you the value that he can provide even when he isn't scoring. He needs to score more certainly, but I just, I find it hard. It's just a mismatch of, I guess, like, trajectories for me to be like, all right, well, we're going to deal this guy. It's like, all right, well, how are you going to replace him? with any player that would be theoretically available for any team

because the caliber of player that he could be and has been and you're paying him to be is in such a high tier and Hatchez's a high standard that that just isn't really available anywhere else, especially internally, right? Like you're not going to be able to replace his game breaking and his playmaking and his ability to do all this other stuff that we've listed internally.

So I just don't really see that, but I get it. It's a very interesting one. Elliot Freeman was talking about it again today on his headlines. and so people will keep talking about it until there's more resolution or until the team just starts playing better. And it's a really tricky one to get a grasp on as well. We've seen both the highs and lows quite literally this weekend, right?

Like the game they played in Toronto was the best version or close to it. And then the one in California was probably one of the worst offensive team efforts you're going to see all season considering the circumstances. Like we've been speaking about out of Carolina. And not just from Vancouver. But from anyone. Like you mean from anybody, yeah. From any team in the league. Like this is a hurricane team that is pretty getable defensively, I think, certainly off the rush,

although obviously the Canucks don't generate that much of that themselves, even when they're playing well. With Dustin Tukarski and net playing the second of a back-to-back. And for you to, they wound up with 15 shots, but a handful of those came with the net empty, kind of just trying to throw stuff at net and see if anything would stick. Like they were in the 9 to 12 range for the large majority of that game. And that's a really difficult spot. ought to be in and then watch that team and be like, all right, this is one that's going to contend, even when they are healthy, but then they come right back.

And despite all these circumstances, put together the effort they did in Toronto. So go back to square one. They had 15 shots on goal and they were still quantity over quality, which is the meanest thing you can say about an offensive outing for any team in the NHL this season without question. Yeah, they don't have a floor. They don't have an offensive floor. And that's, I think, what's opened the door for. Utah and Calgary. Now, Saturday night, the Utah hockey club, we noted the Gunther injury,

but they sustained one of those young losses, right? A Matthew Barzal goal against with less than 90 seconds to play deprives them of even a loser point. And, you know, I still think with Utah, I mean, they need Gunther back, like flat out, right? Because the case for Utah rests on Gunther being what, a top 10 winger in hockey? I mean, I think he is one, right? But really performing and establishing himself that way over the balance of the season. And then also that sort of tripartite access of elite talent in Keller, what cool he can be. And Gunther sort of together and what cool he can be.

I'm saying that like he's not a near point per game player already. But I mean, that's special. their D gets healthy. Ryan Smith pushes the club to be aggressive. They have a ton of assets to buy. And, you know, that's still the profile. Even with the loss tonight, that's still the profile of team, especially once you factor in their underlying profile, right?

Their ability to control play, their ability to generate five on five, which far outstrips what Vancouver can do, for example. You know, Vancouver just has the sort of tactical news, that veteran experience to grind out wins or even points in games they don't play well. Whereas, you know, Utah feels feels, Utah certainly right now feels a year away. And yet how many times over the last 10 years have we thought that about a team at midseason and seen them have one of those runs that like the Blues had, for example, in 0809 at the start of their, you know, decade long contention window where it was like, oh, right, this young team snuck into the playoffs going,

38, 5, and whatever, six down the stretch, right? You, you, you sometimes, sometimes these young teams that are, that are knocking on the door, have that elite five on five profile and seem too young, take that leap pretty suddenly. Like, it's, it's almost immediate that all of a sudden a sort of switch turns and the fact that they're able to hit 102 miles per hour on the radar gun matters in terms of the results. I still think there's a case to be made that Utah could find that groove. But losing Gunther, man, that is a huge blow, I think, to the story that you can tell yourself about, tell yourself about the Utah Hockey Club glow up. Yeah. And the flames, it's interesting. They kind of remind me in a way of last year's flyers, because I think if you

gave Craig Conroy Truth Serum or you went out for a couple beers with him and you were off the record, he'd probably be like, I think my job would be a lot easier if we were just where Thomas Dransson, Demetri Filipovich thought we'd be at the start of the year, which is the worst thing in the league, because that was the trajectory clearly that they were headed on. And I think after all their moves last year, we're sort of designing this full rebuild and to execute that properly. You kind of do need to bottom out at some point to get that high level talent you get at the top of the draft. Yet they play so hard on nightly bases. They're so competitive. They don't really have the commensurate talent to keep up. but they're just in it. I guess the difference between them and last year's flyers, though,

is that Dustin Wolf is playing at like 110 point pace or something when he's in that in terms of how their results look, and he gives them a chance to win every single night. And so they actually do have high-level goaltending to go along with this. Unfortunately, they're 27th in scoring this season and with Conner's area out. I think it'll be even tougher for them to manufacture goals. But I'm very, like, I really enjoy watching this. play. I think they've been full marks all season without any real sustained drop-off, which is

incredibly impressive a job by the coaching staff for preparing them every night and for the players involved. But they just don't really have the offensive juice. And so now you talk about the C's parting in that way with what we just said about Utah and Calgary and then Seattle fumbling this season and St. Louis being just stuck in utter mediocrity, there aren't really any real viable combatants, I guess, right? Like I think if anything, you look at it and the way this season's transpired, I think the team that should feel worst about it is Seattle, right? Because they spent a bunch of money in the offseason.

Yep. In one way on a really good player in Brendan Montour, who has made a dramatic transformational difference, and Chandler Stevenson, who's been one of the worst forwards in the league this season and is already skating much slower than he was previously, and that contract looks horrific. I like the Kako edition for them.

I think he's played really well. He scored a couple goals again today. I think he's fitted nicely. Those are the types of deals they should be making. But for them to not really even be viably in this conversation, despite all the struggles of all these wildcar teams ahead of them, is kind of unforgivable, in my opinion. Yeah, it's really tough.

And there's no way out. It's not like what story can you even tell yourself about the Cracken other than the last 120 games we've seen of Maddie Baneers as a mirage? Right? I mean, I felt a lot better about telling myself that story at the outset of the season, right? Because the tale's not just that this team is sort of fallen flat. You know, the Gru Bauer experience has been a big part of that story. The lack of offensive juice has been a big part of that story. But this crack and build always felt narrow in its

sort of reliance on like depth, you know, and grinding it out. And the emergence of Vince Dunn and Adam Larson is a genuine top pair. And then, you know, you sort of threw Joey DeCorp onto it. Even with all of that stuff hitting more or less, like the basis of what this cracking team needed to be relied on, required. Maddie Baneers to continue to build on the trajectory that he looked to be on after he won the Calder, you know, in that miracle first crack in season for him, first crack in full season. And since then, since then, you know, he's been very far from that future star,

that it looked like the Kraken were sort of nurturing or had on their hands without the top end progressing. Right. And progressing to be a really imposing feature of their team. I mean, they're kind of stuck, aren't they? I mean, with Baneers and Kako, they've played 120 minutes at 5-15 since Kago came over. They have a 58% expected goal share at 5-15, and they're being outscored still in that time. Part of that is just a god-awful, on-ice-a percentage, but I really hope for, because you watch Baneers play, and obviously he's not producing the way he was as a rookie, but there's nothing

also visibly where you're like, well, he's regressed as a player. in terms of like all the pieces that culminate in it. It's just the final step isn't there, I guess. And there's some sort of track. But there's a lack of swagger there. There's, isn't that understandable for a young player who is now getting beaten down by like the expectations and not living up to them as a scorer,

especially in a league where everyone is scoring now? It's like that must be a pretty tough bill to swallow. Yeah, it might be a confidence thing for sure. And, you know, that that might. that might also be sort of something that the crack can have to address, but they have to find a way to design, you know, design an environment where he can succeed or at least rebuild his confidence. Because, you know, it's not just about this season and the missed opportunity that it represents.

It's, you know, this team's going to be stuck for years if they can't get, if they can't find a way to create an elite presence or two. And frankly, too, on the roster, you know, they've got some interesting irons in that fire and certainly, you know, Shane Wright and Maddie Baneers and co, but I mean, that step is almost more important than anything else to see over the sort of balance of this campaign. And you're right. Putting Kako's like playmaking from down low, which has been a surprise, I think, since he joined the Cracken. I've been really impressed by the passing, which, you know, wasn't something that stood out to me in his game in New York. But certainly on that line with

baneers and it's been um um shorts right yeah that uh that line it's like his playmaking from down low i think has opened up a lot so that i like i mean there's some signs of progress but that's to me at this point because i don't think they're going to be able to get back into the mix um you know that that that that's like what i'm looking for that that's what i need to see over the back half of the season uh because if that's not there if that's not something the crack and feel like they can bank on here, then I think that necessitates a more dramatic rethinking about what they're kind of doing down south of the I-5 from Vancouver. What about the blues under Montgomery, by the way?

You buying them at all? No. No, I'm not. I mean, they've been playing better, certainly, and they have some offensive juice. But the floor is too low, in my opinion. Like, there's games where they just don't have it and they just get played out of the building. and so that's tough in a race like this where it's so close and even for all the flaws of these teams like we just said like the Canucks and nitpicking them and the flames certainly they're going to have so few of those types of efforts especially like even the flames where it's like they're not just really going to give away points or have games where they just don't really have it and just get completely outclassed and so in a race like this is just really tough for a Blues team that does have to make up ground they've been playing better, but I just don't really see that.

It's a shame because I'd like, similar to the East, I'd like if there's more teams involved here because it creates more drama and more intrigue, but I feel like that's stretching it a little bit right now. Yeah, the first 40 minutes against the Blue Jackets was pretty much a solid distillation of what we said about the Blue Jackets and what you just said about the Blues. So realistically, I think it's, to summarize sort of where we're at with the West, it's like, I think the Canucks would have to cough it up. up. I really do think the first thing that has to happen before we're talking about Utah and

Calgary is the Canucks have to cough it up. Now, that said, the thing that could interfere with that logic is Utah genuinely going up a level. And I do still buy that, but I'm feeling a lot less confident about it, right? I'm not selling on this Utah build, but it feels a little less imminent than it did when last we were talking before the holidays, right? They've sort of hit a skid. They've been a 400. Actually, I guess worse because they lost tonight. So they've been a sub 400 point percentage team across their last 11 games. That's the sort of stretch that I think changes how we should view them and maybe changes the possibility for that team in terms of taking that big swing. You know, the blue line injuries, all of that adding up and then gun they're missing an indefinite amount of time

after they sort of squander this 11 games on the other side of that big win over the Canucks that really positioned them in an interesting way. And now they've sort of failed to take advantage of this Canucks sag over the same period of time. Again, I think the Canucks have to cough it up or Utah has to level up to a preposterous amount to upset what I think is most likely a pretty set eight at west in contrast with the, you know, incredible race or not incredible, that's not right for teams that are pacing to be mid-80s point totals, but the certainly like busy race that we're looking to see unfold

over down the stretch in the east. One of the races of all time. One of them. All right, Tom. I'll let you, what do you have to plug here on the way out? Yeah, I'm at Canucks Talk, although I'm off this upcoming week.

and then but yeah Canucks talk wherever you find your podcasts at the SportsNet podcast network and then of course at the athletic writing writing about the Canucks covering this team as they go through some pretty sizable ups and downs here especially over the last

48 hours what a contrast for this Vancouver team between the lows of one of the most dubious performances we've seen all year in Carolina and then a pretty electric showing in Toronto on Saturday night well have a great week off buddy It's going to be a fun week in the NHL.

I just wanted on our sign out here, you look ahead, some fun playoff previews. We got L.A. Edmonton on Monday, New Jersey, Florida on Tuesday. We got Edmonton, Colorado, and then Dallas, Colorado as well later in the week. So there's going to be some fun heavyweight tilts there for people to look forward to. Next time we get together. This was a bit weird, in my opinion. It was a fun show.

It's always great getting together with you, but it's not the same as when we're sitting in studio, chopping it up. True. Remote is just not the same, although obviously of other obligations and you're doing a great job covering this team on the road. But when you're back from break,

we'll be back in the studio together and resume our regularly scheduled programming here on the Sunday specials. Thank you to everyone for listening to us. We'll be back, I believe, on Tuesday with another show here of the HockeyPEDEO cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.