The Hockey PDOcast - Surprise Teams, and What They’re Doing Right vs. Wrong

Episode Date: November 2, 2023

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Jack Han to talk about what they're seeing on tape from surprising teams like the Ducks, Oilers, Predators, and Penguins early in the season. This podcast was produced by Elan Chark.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

Progressing to the mean since 2015, it's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey Pedioccast. My name is Dmitri Filippovich and joining me for the first time this season is my good buddy, Jack Hahn. Jack, what's going on, man? Happy to be back. We got lots to talk about.

We do. We're reunited. It feels so good. It's not quite the last times we had you on was, I think, our bread and butter, right? During, like, playoff series where we can really just sink our teeth into specific X's and O's and tactical adjustments and stuff like that. We don't really have that going right now. But in this first month of the season,

I know you and I have both been just consuming as much hockey as we can, trying to see what teams are doing differently, what's going on around the league. And so I thought it would be good to have you all and kind of do a bit of a checkup on that and talk about maybe some interesting or surprising early season performances and kind of what we're seeing from those teams. Do you want to start talking about the ducks?

Yeah. So very big surprise for me because coming into the season, I wasn't really expecting the Ducks to be a team that's quite interesting to watch, even though I do enjoy watching Zegris. And I think Jamie Drysdale has got some potential. But really surprising. And one player that I think we're both going to really love just kind of came out of nowhere. Yes. That's a good teaser right there. Well, before we get into that player, they're coming off a game last night against the Coyotes,

which was for my money, one of the most just pure fun games of the season so far in the early going. It was delightful. It was spirited. It was fun. I'm not sure if it was necessarily meaningful in terms of the grand scheme of the league and our future sort of determination of what's going to matter with these teams. But it was a 4-3 overtime win.

Brilliant play at the end by Mason McTavish to win it. And with the Ducks, you can already see. significant tangible improvements from them. You kind of mentioned your expectations for them. And it's understandable after how they heard us last year, where they were an absolute abomination, especially defensively, right? They were like, by any measure,

the worst defensive team we've seen in the analytics era over the past decade plus. And so far this year, despite having a really young team, I believe they have eight guys who were born in the 2000s on their opening day lineup. They've cut down their shots against by about 10 per game. their expected goals against per hour has been sliced down by nearly an hour so far,

or sorry, one per hour per hour so far. And so it's a very encouraging performance. I'm not sure like, you know, what our expectations should be for them for the rest of the year, but they're playing something actually resembling NHL hockey now as a team. And they're also doing it in a fun way where young players are still being featured prominently, right? This isn't just like a group of veterans trying to be respectable. This is a really fun young team that's playing the right way so far.

And I think that should be really encouraging moving forward. Yeah. And you mentioned all these defensive stats from last year's team. And obviously, I kind of came up in hockey kind of more on the stat side of things, but also now do more qualitative analysis. And I think something that lots of maybe more casual fans, they don't quite see, is that when you look at these defensive stats as measured by Corsi or expected goals, a lot of times the team that are quote unquote really bad defensively are actually

that bad because they're not doing anything productive with the puck. So they don't get the puck back. They don't get in the ozone time and they're just defending the whole game. Right. And whereas like the teams which are actually bad defensively, they may be a little bit better in these shot-based stats, but they're just giving up lots of rush goals or like those teams tend to get PED. whereas the teams which are really horrible offensively

just they don't even get the puck to begin with. Yeah. Well, I can tell you having watched my fair share of ducks last year, they checked all those boxes. They have added everything. But they were certainly struggled. I see what you mean in terms of just pure zone time. And it's been better so far this year.

And it certainly helps that Lucas Dostow has like a 926 percentage so far and looks really good as well as part of that young nucleus. But let's talk about Pavel Minchikov here because I think no player on this team while there's certainly like a laundry list of guys we could talk about, I think no one better represents and personifies what we're talking about here than him because his inclusion into this lineup has all of a sudden both statistically paid dividends, but also when you watch them play more qualitatively, you can see the impact he's having right out of the gate.

And I think that's just, I mean, that's so impressive for not only a teenager, right? I believe he's still 19 for another couple weeks, but one who has zero pro experience as well, right? He's pretty much only played junior hockey first in Russia and then in the OHL coming over. And so with zero pro experience under his belt, he makes that jump this year. And in his first 10 games,

he's shown me pretty much everything I would ever want to see from a young defenseman. Yeah, second it. I mean, you know, all the things that we talk about defensemen doing, whether it's activation, whether it's, you know, attacking the middle of the ice, whether it's defending skating forward, killing rushes early. Like he checks all the boxes, as you said.

I mean, obviously just 10 games is such a tiny sample size, like 10 pro games. It doesn't even matter that they're NHL. Just 10 pro games is a tiny sample size. And obviously he is 19 years old. But, I mean, you know, there aren't more than a handful of defensemen in the past, I would say, decade who's had a better 10 game stint as a pro at 19 it just hasn't happened yeah i mean let's break it down so the physical ability i think that certainly jumps off the page you see last night um i just he's he he's built like a tank like what he hits you it is guys are just flying

off of them like it's he's so not necessarily like the biggest player but he's just like so compact and strong already like he just like cleanly separated Matt Dunba off the rush, off the puck, and then brought it back the other way, and they wind up scoring a goal earlier last week. I was watching it against the Penguins, and Chris LaTang makes the fatal mistake of bumping into him, and he just like immediately disintegrated into dust. It was like he just couldn't handle the force that was Pavl Minchikov hitting him. And that's amazing, the fact that he's already just like hitting like a train like that and also doing it in a functional way where it's causing position.

possession changes, but you factor that in with the instincts you mentioned where he's already playing in a way that shows like a keen understanding of, it seems like he knows where he needs to go at all times and how to do so, right? Like, whenever you look up, he's in the right place and he's also always around the puck. And generally it takes young players, especially playing this position, a certain amount of time to figure that out at this level. The game's so fast. It's unlike like anything they've experienced before and you see them make mistakes. You see them play very conservatively. And there's really been none of that so far. I'm not sure how much of that credit should go to Minchikov. I'm sure a lot of it. How much of it should go to this coaching staff

and Greg Conan? Because I'm not sure this could have been the case last year. And you know, before the season, I was listening to a podcast with him. And he was talking a very good game in terms of letting these young defensemen along with, you know, Lachom and Minchikov, but also Zellweger down the road sort of play a more modern style and be able to kind of roam the ice and and play in incremental areas of it and so far so good we've seen that and so maybe it's a combination of the two where they're letting him do that thing and then he's uniquely equipped to actually play that way yeah and and i think in the next uh weeks a month of years i think hopefully we're going to hear a lot more of Mintikov as a player and how he's developing.

But the thing that really baffles me is so I pulled up his elite prospect page. And this is a player who I never scouted before, you know, that that was after my time in the NHL. And so I didn't know much about his kind of pre-draft history. And what I saw was really baffling because, as you said, he never played any pro games in Russia before coming over to the OHL. And then the only kind of, I would say, high-level junior that he played in Russia was in the MHL, which is a Russian kind of the major junior league over there.

In 33 games, back in his draft, I guess, minus two year, he played 33 games. He had one goal, two assists for three points, which is a terrible production in any league, but especially in a league that's as weak as a Russian junior league. like I don't know what happened. Like I would love to sit down with whether it's him, his agent, maybe his dad, or, you know, somebody was instrumental in his development and asked him just like, what the hell happened between 2019 and, you know, 2021? Because on top of having a really, I would say, forgettable 2019, 20 season, the following year,

he didn't play a single game because of COVID. So I guess he's listed as a member of Sagueness. in the OHL, but he didn't play in a single game. And then after that, in his draft year, he puts up nearly point in game, which is obviously very good. And then in his draft plus one, he was over a point in game, which again is very good. But, you know, you can still not really trust that for a defenseman because, as you said, like he's maybe a unicorn in terms of having the physical ability as well, the physical strength

and the speed. But really, you know, he, sure, he's had a good. North American junior career, a really, I would say, mediocre Russian one, but how has that player become now one of the most, kind of one of the best teenagers in the world? Well, whatever that change was, it was clearly a foundational. I know that anyone that scouted him closely during the pre-draft process while he was playing the O.HL absolutely fell in love with his game, right? Like, I believe, especially when he was on Saginau, that team wasn't particularly good,

but they were playing this very unique, modern style in terms of like, head. possession, never really giving away the puck unless you have to allow in their defensemen to really activate in the offensive zone and kind of work that middle of the ice with that funnel. And he was just dominating in that regard. And you mentioned the points. That's one thing. He also scored 17 and 24 goals in his two HL seasons. And I know typically like goal scoring for a defenseman can be very fleeting.

And I think a particular defenseman who can meaningfully drive offensive results are few and far between. right like we see defensemen especially in today's game in the NHL put up big point totals but generally a lot of that is situation based right like if you're out on the ice on the top unit power play you're going to rack up a ton of secondary assists which not necessarily might not be indicative of anything you're doing particularly well it might just be oh you're on the ice with good players you touch the puck you're going to get points and in this case i think we generally um probably don't give enough credit to like how difficult it is to drive offensive results to the defenseman in the NHL game and not like this is a teenager with 10 games let's not get too carried away but based on what we know from him from everyone to watch them in major junior and what we're seeing now i can see why you would connect those dots with him right like if you just watch him off the puck from the defensive zone when the lane is there he's so good at just sprinting up the ice and joining joining the rush that first goal he scored against the canes the four on four play with him and jackson locombe out there was like that's such a high offensive IQ play for a defenseman to just be involved there,

especially right out of the gate to start your career and jump in on that play and then be able to execute it. And so I can't wait to keep watching more because if this is just a sign of things that come, then the future just is incredibly right for both him and the ducks. Yeah. And again, just going back to the fact that he's Russian, like in Russia, the way that defensemen are told to play traditionally is you get the puck, you give it, to forward, and then you wait and you play a trap.

And that's really not conducive to developing top-hand defensemen. Like, you know, since the end of the Soviet Union, there's probably a handful of defensemen who are really kind of all-stars coming out of Russia, like, you know, Zubov, Ganchar, but there hasn't really been many, you know, right now in the NHL, Orlov and Surgiev are probably two best ones. And, you know, I would arguably take Mintikov above them, like, right now. So it'll be really exciting to see where it goes from here. Yeah, certainly not a huge track record, especially recently, of producing star defensemen.

I think there's, I looked it up. There's like 13 active NHL defensemen who are from Russia in today's game. Yeah, with him on the ice so far, I'm that they're using him kind of as like a second pair of guy, right? 53% shot share, 55% high danger chance share, positive goal differential. And he's playing with Lubushkin, and they're not really, you know, they're not giving him the tough assignments, but they're certainly not sheltering them territorially either. And so I was looking this up. I mean, this is such a loaded rookie class, right?

And I think for young defensemen, especially ones who aren't like the number one guy playing 25 minutes or so a game, it's just really tough to to garner enough attention to actually win the award. And especially in a year where we have guys like Bedard and Kooley who are going to put up big point totals and do so in such a flashy way, it might just be a bit of a suckers bet, but you can still get him at like 25 to 40 to 1 or so for the Calder. And so that would be a fun one to get in on just to follow it this season

because obviously I think especially playing in these late games, right, it was like the only game on at some point last night. And for the people who were actually staying up and watching it, I'm pretty sure everyone was not only marveling at what he was doing, but also just like enjoying the full experience. And they're like, wow, I want to watch more of this. So I just wanted to give that a bit of a shout out there. Yeah, I mean, it's all of a sudden, it's exciting.

Yeah. Okay, any other notes on Munchikov or the Ducks or do you want to move on? No, let's move on. We got quite a loaded menu. Well, on a less positive note, I got Oilers next on my list. Now, I had Kevin Woodley on recently and I'm not sure if you heard, but he was giving you a lot of love because you did a, what are thread kind of breaking down

some of the conversation about their defensive issues in their own zone and how a lot of it has been sort of unfairly or mistakenly attributed to this new system they're running, the Vegas system, right? The box and water of the zone defense,

which has become the trendy topic for everyone to kind of shout out as the buzzword. Obviously, regardless of your mileage on what this team's outlook was like heading into the year as a Stanley Cup contender, the fact that they're two, five and one with a minus 10 goal differential

is clearly unacceptable and not okay for a team that has as much talent as they do. I know McDavid missed a few games, but still, let's talk a little bit about them and kind of how we break down the fact that they're giving up four goals a game

and what's the cause for that, some of the kind of deeper underlying issues that are present on tape. Man, like, I just, like I watched him play. play and obviously the D zone thing gets a fair bit of attention. The goal 10y gets a fair bit of attention. But like I'm not really loving their play with the puck either.

Yeah. What would you guess the rush goals are this year in their games in terms of how many they've scored and how many of their opponents have scored in eight games? I don't know like like three to 10, something like that or something. I scored 14 to 4 of the rush. And I'm classifying that as basically any goal that came within like a couple seconds of a carry. And it's that's pretty bleak now obviously just purely looking at goals can not necessarily always give you the most accurate picture because there's a bunch of stuff that precedes it. And if the goalie makes a save and you move the buck the other way, we don't really focus on it as much.

So just purely identifying these like outlier events is is one thing. But I think that's kind of a clear sign, right, for all the talk about this zone defense they're running and kind of how they're playing, it's like if you're just constantly bleeding these types of rush chances against, that's going to kill you, especially when your goalies can't necessarily bail you out time and time again. So I don't know, I don't know how much of that is attributed to to all of the other stuff, how much of it is personnel based, but this isn't the way things looked previously under Woodcroft, right? Like, this is a bit of an aberration. And so maybe we thought too highly of them as a rush team heading into the season. You know, I was listening to like a, I think it was a Vanderca.

on a 32 Thoughts podcast, and he was talking about how people, for whatever reason, think the Oilers are like one of the best rush teams in the league, but then playing against Vegas last year really sort of put into perspective, like how good the Golden Knights are in transition, and there's just a significantly different tier than the Oilers are as a team.

And that's, like, clearly the case here, right? Because, I mean, they're just getting absolutely walloped off the rush, and that's a much bigger issue for me than anything in zone. Yeah, and I, And I don't think it would be in the oilers best interest to copy what Vegas is doing because basically why Vegas is so good off the rush is, you know, they do defend well in zone. They got some defensemen who can fire some stretch passes.

And in the theater and Shay Theater's case, you can jump in the rush as well. But they got really good at bypassing teams kind of along the boards and then just kind of, you know, it's almost like if you're playing EA sports online, like you're just spamming the speed, button down the board and then you're you're taking it straight to a net so you know like like Vegas's strength is more on the wings whereas I think Edmonton would be better serve playing more in the middle of the ice and getting those middle entries and you know you know for sure like Evan Bouchard's already one of the best at kind of flinging those like long two-line passes but but I like I see why they would want to copy what Vegas has done I just don't think

to have the same personnel yeah Yeah, I mean, it's certainly an issue. And I think Vegas was whenever someone wins the way they do and it's like as as dominant and methodical as it was, I think people are going to obviously take note and try to replicate it. But it was, I mean, it was a unique combination of personnel and also coaching, right? Because they clearly made changes last year. When Bruce Cassidy came in, they went from more of a volume team, both offensively and defensively, in terms of controlling position that way to really. dominating in high quality areas and we saw that throughout the postseason

and it paid dividends for them. And so I'm all for trying to replicate that side of things, but just specifically in terms of the way they're playing, I think it's going to lead teams astray, right? Because there's so much more to it than just pack the front of your net and don't let teams score from these high danger areas. It sounds good in theory, but it's really difficult to execute unless you have the right type of players.

Yeah. And the thing that I don't like about this whole Oilers discourse is like the DZone is just a red herring, basically. Yes, like, yes, they've made changes. Yes, it hasn't looked great in spots. But really, the more pressing issues are up ice. Well, how do you? So, okay, so what are the fixes then? Like, let's say they're bringing you in and they're like, okay, we cannot afford to keep playing this way and being two, five, and one.

We need to change things. this is a do or die year for us based on the contract status and age of our two best players and how much how committed we are to it like what do we what do you do in season to fix it and get back to playing the way you did last year well the the first thing is finding ways to safely get the puck into the middle of the ice uh in the neutral zone because if you get the puck in the middle of the ice like that sounds risky right but what happens is if you turn that puck over, where's the puck going to go? Well, the only place the puck is going to go is toward either the boars on one side or the boards on the other. So actually, if you turn the puck

over in the middle and it's in the neutral zone, you have some time and space to actually force that play wide. The thing that I've seen the Oilers do when I watched them, which is, you know, admittedly not every single game is they would try to get the puck wide like Vegas likes to do. they would maybe get through the neutral zone or at least get to the red line and then they would just completely run out options. Like they can't carry it in. They got two bodies like kind of in their way. They can't even chip it in because the D is just going to stand there and block that entry attempt. So, you know, what are you going to do?

Well, now the puck gets turned over. And as soon as the puck gets turned over, Emmington gets really passive because that's what their system is. They play a one, one, three in the neutral zone, which is, you know, three guys back and passive. And then they play a box plus one. And the way that they play it has been more on the passive end. So they're just kind of submitting themselves to the other team. Whereas if they get the puck in the middle, at least even when you have to dump it in, you've got more options and your success rate's going to be higher.

Yeah. No, and so like what's the logic behind playing that way in terms of especially at defensive zone and sort of this change? It seems like beyond just obviously the, success Vegas had and kind of limiting those chances. I think part of it is also like try to conserve energy, right? It seems like this is probably less physically taxing, but maybe that's why it's also been so passive and why it's leading to so many other issues down the line. Yeah. And this this box plus one, especially the way that Eminton plays it, like, they're really

quite passive. Okay. So there are two reasons why you want to play a box plus one or a zone defense. the one is you're playing against teams that are not good with the puck. So, you know, I've coached women's hockey for a long time. And I've, you know, I've worked with minor hockey players. I coach minor hockey way back when. And the teams that played a box plus one in a really diligent way, they did well because at the younger levels or in women's hockey, there's less speed, less strength, a little bit less skill depending on what leagues are talking about.

And teams aren't really good at creating offense from just in the same. the O zone, right? Like everybody can score off the rush, but not everybody can really string those plays together. So if you play against the box plus one, they're counting on you to spam bad shots into shin pads. They're counting on you to make high turnovers. They're counting on you to sort of mindlessly skate yourself at their corner

and then you get, you get dropped, right? It doesn't work as well in the NHL where every single player essentially has the ability to make plays in zone. the other reason why you would play a zone defense, which I think is the reason why most NHL teams would use it, is because you're not playing man on man, you're either playing kind of pretty passive

and you're allowing the puck carrier some space, or you can kind of then reorganize and marshal your forces to create a two-on-one somewhere. And I think that's the best reason to play a zone in the NHL. And the only thing with Emmington is that they haven't really been good at those trigger points. So a trigger point is the moments or the places in which you would attack two on one. So a good example is if it's a wide entry, you're looking to attack two on one. If the puck is along the boards and especially if the puck carriers got his head down,

you're attacking, you're pressuring two on one. If the puck is down low in the corner, you're going two on one. And the thing with the oil is is we're not seeing those two on one kind of surges of pressure that you would see from Vegas or whoever else is good in a box plus one. Yeah, well, I think what it's what it's also exposed a little bit and maybe this ties into your point about how, you know, Vegas is just uniquely equipped to dominate that way. Like the wing talent on this team just isn't really very good at this point, considering how much money they've spent on it and the fact that you'd think, okay, well, we have like David

and Dreisel down the middle. We should be able to find players who can play with them and look good enough on their wings, unfortunately, for the most part, aside from a few exceptions, like, there's not really actually that much high-end wing talent, but also, like, in a dynamic sense as well to be very active and win a lot of those battles you're talking about. Yeah, I find it especially ironic that it would be a Vander Cain talking about this team's struggles because, and anyway, you know where I'm going with this. Well, yeah, it is interesting, right? So they've scored, what, 22 goals. in eight games. That's, you know, you don't have to be good at analytics. Oh, that's less than

three per game. And I believe there's sport logic has them at 17th in a rush chance is created. And so despite McDavid winning, missing a few of those games, that's for a team that's thought to be so good offensively. And then all the conversation is about, oh, they're, you know, they're struggling defensively and that's why they're losing. You're right. Like a lot of the conversation probably should be shifted the other way. And maybe the two things are intertwined to some degree. But maybe this wouldn't be as big of an issue if they were just creating more up ice themselves. So there's some food for thought.

All right, Jack, let's take a quick break here. And then when we come back, we'll pick the conversation back up. You're listening to the Hockipedio cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right, we're back here on the Hockeycadio cast by Jack Han. We talked about Minchikov and the surprising ducks up top

on a positive note. And then the Oilers on a more negative note before the break. we'll do one of each here in the second half of the show as well. Let's start on a positive note. Let's talk about the National Predators who by any time you see one of these charts or stats dumps of how teams are performing early in the season, acknowledging that it has been 10 or fewer games for all these teams. They're near the top.

And even when they were winning towards the end of last year, they were sellers at the deadline, but they made a spirited push for a wildguard spot near the end then fell just short, it was pretty much entirely just UC Soros being one of, if not the best goalies in the world. And then this kind of rag-tag group of young players and the H.L call-ups piecing together enough, but getting absolutely mashed at 5-1-5. And so far this year, it's been the opposite. And I thought why they'd be an interesting topic for us here is not only did they make one of the biggest coaching changes in the off-season, going from John Hines to Andrew Brunette,

but also they made quite a few personnel changes. Now, Luke Shen got injured. We haven't seen much of him, but they brought in Ryan O'Reilly. They brought in a couple wingers. They totally revamped this roster, and the early returns on it are phenomenal. They've been, by any measure, one of the best 5-1-5 teams in the league. So we were talking about the Oilers, D-Zone coverage, and the one thing I'm seeing with Nashville is that they're actually surprisingly good at creating offense out of that same box plus one by forcing turnovers high in their day.

defensive zone. And this is something that I remember seeing back when Brunette was the head coach of the Florida Panthers. They played his own defense as well. And it was really surprising to me how much poised their wingers had once they got the puck. So the thing is, is a lot of times, like you would have a winger that gets the puck made behind the zone, but they're sort of flat-footed. And there's not really any clear options because there's nobody really in front of them or nobody open. And just the next time you watch an NHL games, just notice how many times a winger who's flat-footed

and who gets the puck just throws it away. Like instead of taking three or four hard strides and getting going and seeing what he has after, he just sort of makes a soft chip into a neutral zone and that runs after the puck because it feels safer. And the thing that I see with Brunette's team this year, but also with, you know, the Panthers that were such juggernauts, what is it two seasons ago is that their winger is actually really good at going from

0 to 60 and then what they find is oftentimes they build up speed all of a sudden they're at the red line they've got options they can either dump it in or carry it in and I think that's the biggest change from Nashville this season versus last season and I think early you know the most recent game they played I watched that one closely against the kudks and they wound up losing that game 5-2, I believe. But after the game, I don't think it was an accident that, like, Rick Tocke's presser, he was basically talking about how despite the win, he didn't like the way his team had played, and it wasn't like, you know, something that they want to a repeat of.

And part of it was early in the game. I feel like the Canucks were a bit caught off guard by how aggressively the Predators were playing exactly that way, right? like the Canucks were almost getting caught a bit too deep in the offensive zone and the predators are very quick to turn the puck up the ice and create good looks in transition that way. And so despite not necessarily having a who's who in terms of like household names in some of these forward positions, just you can see the coaching impact in terms of how sort of they're pushing the envelope, I guess, and trying to ramp up and ratchet up the tempo. And it's clearly paying dividends for them so far. So, you know, I have this professional curiosity to try to understand what NHL coaches do with their teams and what they say in their meetings. But I think if I were to pick one team, I would want to sit in on Brunette's meetings with this team more than anybody else this season.

Just because from watching his team's play over the years, it seems like he's the type of coach who says less than more. like, you know, the reason why so many wingers across the league they would just kind of punt that puck and run after it is because they know that if they turned over, if they get coughed behind and then they turn the puck over, they're going to get yelled at or they're going to get banished or they're going to get, you know, some sort of punishment. Whereas I just feel like with certain players, like the best way to get them to make more plays is just to shut up when things don't go well, right? Well, the reason why I was curious to see how this would shake out for a variety of reasons, but most importantly, he got a lot of credit in his earlier stints, but it was also on a pretty loaded Panthers team in terms of offensive talent, certainly. And then being an assistant on that devil's team last year, where it was like, all right, well, the personnel here is pretty good, right?

So while I'm sure he's doing things that whether it is the messaging or how he's communicating or this sort of just the theory he's trying to impart on him, I'm sure that's all well and good, but if you don't have the horses and personnel, you can try playing that way, but it probably won't yield the same results. And now they're not necessarily dominating from a goals perspective in that way, but like every underlying metric that you'd want to see

looks really darn good so far. And I think they've been pretty impressive. So they have a 57% expected goal share five on five, which is just, I mean, it is eight or nine games, but man, that's something that I was in. even after this small of a sample expecting to see the predator is doing. So kudos to everyone involved. Well, I mean, it depends what stats we look at.

Because if you just look at Korsi, I think they're below 50. They're like 48 or something like that. Yeah, there's 17th in attempt, 16th in shots on Goalshare, but then they're fifth and high danger and third and expected goals. And Sport Logic has them generating most notably 11 scoring chances off the cycle per game, which is fourth in the league behind the Leaves, Panthers, and Canucks. Okay. So some weird stuff going on there.

Like I would love to look back in 20 games to see what's real and maybe what wasn't. I mean, a lot of it is being driven by just outlandish defensive inputs. Like F515, 1.72 goals 4 per 60, 1.58 goals against per 60 as a team. That's 3.3 combined goals per game. at 515 and Predators games, right? The Kings are at 7.1 so far this year. I mean, I certainly wouldn't expect that continue, although obviously their goaltending is quite good with Sorrows and Lankan,

but maybe it is, well, you're mentioning in terms of the aggressiveness of the defensive zone and flipping the ice, and then being able to keep the puck in the offensive zone and cycle it and create chances off that way. Like that, it makes sense that that would yield good defensive results if that is actually a way you can keep playing with this personnel. I'm not sure if you can,

but I wanted to shout out Tommy Novak as well here, one of the more unharold names, but as a 26-year-old, right, got his chance last year finally produced phenomenally well down the stretch. I think he finished with 17 goals and 51 games. He's already got 4 and 9, and his underlying 5-15 numbers playing with Luke Evangelista and Keeper Sherwood

are just in a different stratosphere. Like high-danger chances in his 5-15 minutes are 20 to 6 for the predators. Six high-danger chances against all. season. It's, yeah, maybe that'll warrant a deep dive and a full film study of what Tommy Novak and the Predators are doing, especially along the boards. Yeah, again, I like to see in 20 games whether that's still the case where it's evaporated. Well, let's have some fun with small samples, Jack. I mean, it doesn't make for great content being like, you know what, we have to wait a couple months to find out. Let's have some fun. And certainly, at least it's a good story early on.

Results that are less favorable, but maybe the process looks even better is the Pittsburgh Penguins. And I know you wrote about them recently. So let's talk about them a little bit because they started off year three and six record. Right. And after the off season, they had the changes they made, the Eric Carlson trade, how much money they spent revamping this roster. I think expectations were pretty high for them, especially in the short term in the season. And while there's certainly encouraging underlying metrics to look at both at 515 and on the power play, the results clearly have have been here. And with, though, I think, I think the oldest team in the league, like, I understand

why people would start to become wary and also, you know, the, the patience meter wouldn't necessarily be as long because you don't really have that much time to waste here. Yeah. So, yes, the oldest team in the league and the, the most disturbing part of that is if you took the gap between the penguins and the second oldest team, that same gap takes you. from number two to like number 16. Like they're not just the oldest team. They're like they might be the oldest NHL team in recent memory. Like this team is old.

The penguin's average age is don't check this math, but old enough to be fathers of the average age of the Anaheim Ducks. Well, that would be another really disturbing thought if you took things at face level. Yeah. Okay, so what are we seeing here with them? We can talk both at 515 and on. the power play because both have gotten equal amounts of blame and attention.

Let's talk about what you're seeing here and kind of what to expect from them over the next couple weeks. Okay. So just a quick thing on the power play because I didn't write about the power play. I think they'll sort it out. I think they're running at about 11 expected goals per hour, which is elite. The actual goals should follow if you've got this group of finishers and setting up in his own as often as they are, I think they'll be fine.

Like if we think back to when they lost against, I think it was a Dux, right? Like, but they had that, they would come out of the box and then scroll on them with like 14 seconds less. Well, Malkin scored earlier in the game on a power play. It was a one-timer from kind of like the right point. And then in that last sequence, Carlson feeds Malkin.

Malkin hits the post. Carlson tries the exact same pass. The puck gets ticked. and then Anaheim goes down and scores. So, you know, basically it's like they're 9th, 10th the way there. Like they're in the zone. They're set up. They're getting their looks.

The right people have the puck. It's just maybe a matter of being a little bit smarter situationally, being a little bit more lucky and just figuring things out. But, you know, they're basically on the power play, at least, like they're going to be fine. Yeah, their first and expected goals and 20th and actual goals. So that's a pretty good sign. they scored the two power play goals against the ducks. You mentioned Carlson had one earlier as well on an off a pass from Malkin.

But yeah, the most recent viewing of it was that failed by one three, which wound up being a catastrophic goal against in the waning seconds there. So yeah, I'm not too worried about the power play, right? The personnel, there's enough firepower there and makes sense they'd be better. I guess the one complaint I've seen and just watching them like it does also seem like, and maybe this extends to a five-on-five as well. there's not as much like urgency, I guess, or decisiveness as you'd ideally like to see considering the names involved. Like, and it's very bizarre for a Mike Sullivan team because you'd expect there to be much more precision and pace.

And maybe this is a good segue into a 5-1-5, but I think there are some concerns there, despite the fact that a lot of the shares that you look at are pretty encouraging. Yeah, so the underlying stats, the expected stats, they all look really good. But at some point, it's time to win some effing games, right? And I think for the penguins, perhaps it will help to have a bit of a rethink. The thing is what the NHL is, even when your coach doesn't change, even when your players don't change, your players are actually always changing just because of how competitive the NHL is, how steep the aging curve is past a certain point. And what I'm seeing is the penguins are still playing the way that they did back when they won the two consecutive Stanley Cups,

except a lot of the same names are still around. And, you know, those players are not the same players. Like they're slower, they're slower to recover physically. They, you know, because now they're physically overwhelmed. Now they start making mental mistakes. And the way that they defend the rush specifically is putting a lot of, stress. And, you know, whether it's their older players, whether it's their younger, more inexperienced players, like they're getting burned in one-on-one situations off the rush,

like there's no tomorrow. And it doesn't matter if you have, you know, a 55% expected goal share. You're still, you know, the other team still has 45%. And if you're allowing them to hurt you off the off of these rush chances or those, what I call rush plus one. So within, let's say, the next 10 seconds, you're not really set, they're walking down Main Street. Of course, the shares are going to be good, but you're going to get outscore. Like, most goals in hockey come off the rush. So if you're giving up quality and quantity off the rush, it's time to rethink whatever you're doing.

I just think ultimately it's very difficult to win games when you get as little from your bottom six as they do. I know that, like, recently, um, Ellers played back. better with Zahorna and O'Connor and they're getting a little bit from them. But the fourth line, and listen, I understand, like, they're not, they didn't get brought in and they're not being paid to score goals, right? That's what the top players do. They're playing very extreme defensive deployment.

And it's like they're just hoping to hang on in those minutes so that they can get the top guys out there again. But when you're getting, like, literally nothing in terms of in the way of five-on-five scoring, your margin for error shrinks quite a bit, right? because that means that your best case, absolute best case scenario, is you come out of those minutes at a net neutral and you're even. And that's good because your top players will probably win their minutes. And if that carries over every single game,

you're going to win more games than not. But there's going to be times where the puck doesn't bounce your way or whatever. And the top guys get outscored. And then all of a sudden it's like, all right, we have nothing to fall back on because they've literally gotten zero goals and approaching 105 on five minutes now from that Jeff Carter, Matt Nietto, Nolichari line. And so that's like, it's just really tough.

in today's game when you look at some other teams and particularly the good ones and they all have guys on their fourth line who can play and create in their limited usage. You watch a team like the Kings and they're one of my favorite teams to watch because it's like, all right, our four lines are going to go out there? Well, Blake Lazard is will certainly be creating something. Carl Grunstrom, you know, Arthur Calib's probably playing on their fourth line when they're fully healthy. Like it's just incomparable to what a team like the Penguins has, the way they're

constructed. And this was a massive issue for them last year. and Kyle Dubas came in and totally changed all of the names, but they're getting very similar results from them, and so that would be worrying to me because there's a lot on the plate of the top six and they're performing well, but they're all getting pretty long in the tooth,

and it's just unfair to expect them to keep dominating the way they need to. Yeah, and this is a situation where it would really help if you had one or two or three HAL call-ups, you know, preferably on the younger side who can just call up and at least try in the lineup. Well, they theoretically do. Like that was their approach in terms of adding serviceable depth this offseason, right? Like they've already called up Zahorna because Jansen Harkins didn't work.

They brought in what Vinie Haastroza and Colin White? Like there's theoretically names, but they're just for whatever reason for the second straight year getting absolutely nothing from them. They have 18 5-1-5 goals from the top six and three from the bottom six. Like it's that is about as bleak of a divide as you're going to see in the league. So that's concerning. And then they spend a lot of money on Tristan Jari. and we've seen the highs and lows, and I think that's, while that's true for most goalies,

I think the contract the time they signed it, was pretty unconscionable. And, you know, based on everything we've seen so far, maybe, maybe Kyle shouldn't make any big goalie decisions. That's not that any of us are very good at evaluating goalies, but that was also tough.

And when he plays, like, I think they're 25th in team save percentage. So, yeah, you're right. If you can control 55% of the share, but if the 45 going the other way are difficult ones off the rush,

and your goaltending isn't to be trusted, and is unreliable, that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to come out ahead. The main takeaway for me is, you know, your goalie situation can change in a hurry, just like look at Vegas last year. Your bottom six situation can change in a hurry. But the thing that can't really change in a hurry is the top of your lineup. And I just wonder, regardless of how well the Penns perform, whether it's, you know, an actual goals and wins or expected goals and wins,

can their top players actually survive 82 games of this sort of death march and then get to the playoffs and be effective once they get there? Like it doesn't matter if they finish first in their division. It doesn't matter if they're the second wild card. You know, it's more like how healthy and how energetic is his team on day one the playoffs if they get there. Yeah. Yeah, and telling 36 and 37-year-olds that they like literally cannot afford to take any

nights off is is not great. that's the position they've kind of boxed themselves into. So we'll be interesting to watch. All right, parting thoughts time. What are you watching? What's got your eye? What are you interested in? What are you going to be writing about next as we get into November here?

What's on kind of what's on the agenda? What's on the docket? What are you interested in? Okay. So tonight is Toronto versus Boston. So obviously I have a continued interest in the Maple East. But the thing, the funniest thing this year is, Ibu She took the most outdated powerplay scheme, which is a three-two spread, and he's made it work really well.

But then they're kind of the opposite of Pittsburgh PowerPlay right now, which is they're getting a good number of actual goals, but they're not getting a lot of expected goals because in that formation, it takes a while to set up. And that really dings you on kind of any weight stat. And also Boston plays a pretty old school like box PK. So two players up top, two Ds near the net. And that's sort of a natural antidote to the three two spread. So I'm I'm expecting Boston to make a game this even if they don't have MacVoy and Grizzlick. But we'll see what happens. Yeah.

No, that's an interesting point about the power play. I mean, obviously they've been phenomenal so far. And, you know, in fact, kind of masking some of the lack of 515 production. But man, when you've got like, and you mentioned how long it takes the setup in times, but then you watch the Kings game and I know they lost it, but it takes a while, it takes a while. And then all of a sudden, if it's Willie Neelander getting a shot from a prime danger, danger location, it all of a sudden can escalate very quickly in terms of quality, right?

So, and he's been phenomenal this year. I think he clearly took his game to another level in the postseason last year, particularly in that Panther series they lost. And this has just been a carryover. where he's been playing absolutely possessed so far this year. That's what a good Alberta-born boy will do for you. All right, Jack. Well, that's a good shout.

I want to shout out the Kings. Like, we didn't have time here to talk about them. But just before we started recording, I went back and watched that game against leaves from the other night because it was a very quiet night on the NHL schedule on Halloween night, I believe. And they're really fun to watch. Once they get up on you, it can be an absolutely miserable experience.

I think towards the end of that second period, there was like a full two and a half minute stretch where they were just passing the buck around the zone and the leaves couldn't even get out or retain possession. And from top to bottom, they play really fast. They're really good. They don't give up anything off the rush. They create a lot themselves. Like the Kings, if you're looking for a fun team to watch, they're really high up on my list. We can do a deep dive on them like in June of 2024 because I think they'll still be playing hockey at that point. All right. All right. Well, that's a good shot. Hopefully we have a chance to talk about them sooner than that. But I'm looking forward to it. All right. On the way out here, Jack, I'll give you a chance to plug some stuff. Let the listeners know whatever you want them to check out.

Okay. So the best way to keep up with what I'm working on is on my substack. It's j-h-h-an-h-h-k-y.com. I may be one of the only kind of coaches working pro hockey to actually write stuff on a weekly basis and give you all that good stuff that you're not getting elsewhere. So sign up for that. There's a free version. There's a paid version with some extra goodies. But do check it out. When's the next hockey tactics, but coming out?

Working on it, it'll be out in 2024 as the name implies. Looking forward to it. When it comes out, we'll certainly be talking about here on this show. good chat as always jack you have the great work we're going to have you on again soon my plugs really quick here if you enjoy today's show uh go smash that five-star button wherever you listen uh if you enjoyed this breakdown i know we didn't really do any video but we talked about a lot of stuff we're seeing on tape i've been experimenting with posting video breakdowns on the youtube page so just go search hockey pdf cast on youtube and sign up i think we're over two thousand

subscribers there now and i'm really enjoying that side of things so it's a nice little compliment into the podcast. And we'll be back tomorrow with with some more content to close the week out. So until then, thank you for listening to the HockeyPedio cast as always streaming on the Sports Night Radio Network.