The Hockey PDOcast - Swayman, Shesterkin, and Goalies in the Playoffs

Episode Date: May 8, 2024

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Kevin Woodley to talk about Jeremy Swayman’s start to the postseason, Igor Shesterkin’s success vs. the Hurricanes, and the impact that team’s passing up potential shot volume for specific scoring chances is having on goalies  If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

dressing to the mean since 2015. It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockey PEDEOCast. My name's Dmitra Filippovich, and joining me is my good buddy, Kevin Woodley. Kevin, what's going on, man? It's beautiful, sunny spring to summer weather here in Vancouver, and we have hockey still on. I miss this so much. I talked to you about this, getting to cover the Seattle Cracken for two rounds last year.

Sort of reminded me how much I missed. covering hockey when the sun is out. And I'm just, yeah, I'm excited for the second round. Oilers in town, game one tonight. I have almost cut up on my sleep from doing my playoff series breakdowns for the goalies for the second round. And I'm just looking forward to hopefully an entertaining series. Well, it truly is a great day as your computer is just going off here.

The sunshine. The sun is shining here in Vancouver. Playoff hockey, as you said, is in the air. I think visibly the quality from these first couple of round two games has elevated as well, and you're seeing that, and so that makes for exciting times for us. And most importantly, we've got the PDCast favorite, Kevin Woodley, in studio here to nerd the heck out for the next hour or so. Now, not that we need any excuse to ever have you on, because if you would, if you would entertain me, I'd have you in every single day, and you and I would just be doing this full time.

But we have a good excuse for having you on specifically today, because as you kind of alluded to there, you did a big breakdown of every round two goalie, their strengths, weaknesses, tendencies, potentially exploitable stuff that you saw in terms of their goal data, where they were kind of typically giving up goals more so than average. And so we're going to get into all that stuff. I think the logical starting point for us here, because I have so much that I want to run through with you is Jeremy Swayman. Because for me, that has been one of the stories of the postseason,

not only his performance through these first seven games as we record that he's played, but also I think the visual of how he's done it. I was texting you about this. Obviously have a very untrained eye when it comes to goalie technique and mechanics. But I can't really recall recently seeing a goalie that was as visibly dialed in as he appears to be, just in terms of like how he's making the saves and sort of how calm it is. There's been a few times where one of those like low percentage shots from the point kind of gets floated his way. and he's just so effortlessly just kind of gloving it down

as if he's playing catch in the backyard with his kid. Like he's just so nonchalant and it's not because it is nonchalant, but it's because he's almost making everything look so cool and casual right now. And that kind of feels to me like that's the highest level of the position that you can reach, right? When you're so locked in,

that way you're seeing the puck so cleanly that every single save kind of resembles that. Yeah, and there's a sort of, underlying persona mentality casual cool to Jeremy Swayman that I think accentuates it. Right. We saw him. You sent me the, you know, he's a maniac laughing after. Well, like there's just a, his approach to everything is really, ideally what you want.

Every goal tenders different. But if you could sort of say like, hey, if you can approach it this way, I think most goalies would be like, I, and it reminds me of someone. Hmm. I would say you could make the argument, no offense, Kevin. or any goalie listening, that anyone playing the position is at least a little bit of a psychopath in some ways to just subject yourself to what the positional demands are and what it involves.

People just shooting as hard as they can at you basically and you're trying to stay in front of it without actually dodging it. But listen, listen, like I got a fake tooth as a, you know, there's a, you know, I've had the tooth knocked out by a shot off the mask. So there's definitely we. To willingly put yourself in a line of fire like that. I'm not making five sheets a year to do it. I'm just doing it for, you know,

funsies on a Monday night, right? So, yeah, we're a little off. We're a little off. So I would say everyone in a position you could kind of apply this to, but him, that instance you're describing there from the game one. And the time in the game had happened where it was a couple minutes into the third period,

the Bruins are protecting a lead in game one. He's under fire. Like, you can tell the Panthers came out of the gate to start the third being like, we can't wait till we pull our goalie late in the game to try to score these goals. Like, we need to go right now. And so they're just peppering

him with shot after shot. There's this scrum in front of his net where it's like a dog pile where every single person on the ice, I think, is just kind of piling on top of each other. He's laying on his belly. He finds the puck. He starts, they whistle it down. He just starts laughing hysterically with Trent Frederick, I believe, and kind of casually tosses the puck away, then he gets up and does a little lap, and he's just soaking it all in. And it's like, to have that type of a mentality in that moment is really, I think, speaks to the fun he's having, also how well he's playing. and also I think the fact that he he might be a psychopath. Yeah, but it's,

but there's also like it doesn't diminish the intensity with what he's playing. And that's, you know, I mean, I saw some of the quotes about, I might have been Frederick after two, like just like how they feed off of that. Like if this guy's back there in that pressure in that moment, you know,

managing it this well, we're good. Like this guy's good. We're good. We're fine. We're all set. Like he's one game into the second round. He's almost 11 goals saved above expected.

That's like half a season to a Vesna, right? Like 25 gets you a Vezna trophy in the NHL. He's like, what, six games in now, seven games in. I guess because he didn't start both of the first two. No, seven now. So he's seven now in. And like 11, like it's nuts. You know, all the adjusted stuff matches what you're seeing, you know, in terms of the raw stuff.

You know, his expected say percentage is just slightly above average. So yes, like they are a good defensive team. but it's not like he's not seeing quality chances. He's making all the ones he's supposed to, a bunch that he's not supposed to. And when I kind of joked earlier, a tease that he reminded me of something, like watching game one,

I saw, you know, and not in all ways, but there were Kerry Price. I could hear your trepidation. Well, I'm hesitant, right? Like, that's a lofty comparison, right? Like, he was for the longest time. I used to refer to him,

and now I'm going to date myself, as a how to goalie DVD, a human how to goalie DVD. We don't use DVDs anymore, but that's what Carrie was regarded as. And I'm not just taught, like a little bit of that cool, that mentality after that save,

the mental approach, the way nothing seems to bother him, how chilly is post game, and not just the great performance, but there's little mannerisms in terms of like watch him set up on a face off. You know, some of the movement patterns where, you know,

this is actually something I haven't had time to since then because we've got got my own playoff series to cover and worry about. But I'm trying to find time maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow after practice to sort of see if I can overlay some video, find some Kerry video on certain moments in the game where I'm like, that looks like Carrie. And I wouldn't be surprised like, you know,

I'm willing to bet. Jeremy Swamens watched Carrie Price footage, not tried to imitate, but all goalies sort of used to watch the grades. They're not the same. Carrie did everything from a narrow stance. And I think the narrow stance off the face off that Jeremy set up on the face off looks very similar.

And maybe that's where it all comes from. But once you get into play, like Jeremy's ability to hold edges low and wide in a stance without committing to the ice is something that Kerry just didn't need to do, but never did. He never really actually had the equipment to do it. Like the skates have changed, the ability to sort of find and hold edges from, from those type of sharp angles, that low and widen your stance has changed. And so it's not like I'm saying they're the same, but there are nuances and little habits and little things that he does that very much.

remind me of Kerry Price. And as you said, I do not, I do not say that lightly at all. Yeah, nearly 11 goals sale above expected 9.55, say percentage in these first seven games, 10 goals against total. I was a bit surprised, I guess, to see them go back to him in game one in Florida, not because there was anything in his performance that would indicate that he was getting tired or wearing down or anything towards the end of that Leaf series. Just because the turnaround was so quick, right? It was like less than 48 hours from game seven to game one. It kind of reminded me and maybe just the fact that he's so much younger in earlier in his

career, it alleviates a bit of that concern. But it made me think of like, what was that, 2021 postseason series where Mark Andre Flurry plays the game seven against Minnesota and then two days later. They just throw Robin Leonard to Wolves. Absorb the game one, like a kind of like a bullpen relief where the pitcher's not, the starter's not feeling it. You're like, you're taking this out for us. You're closing this game out.

you're taking a lot of earned runs, but it's for the greater good. And then Flurry comes in and plays the rest of the series and obviously plays really well. It made me think of that a little bit. And so I was thinking if there's a time, it would make sense that Allmark, who played well in his game one, I know that was the only time to this point they've given up more than two goals against in a game. It was Austin Matthews' his last healthy game in that series, and he was responsible for all three of the goals. The Leaf scored, so I think that context is important. Also, Allmark had three starts against the Panthers, played really well in the regular season.

And so it felt like this would have been the time to kind of buy. I swam in a few days to get ready for games two to seven. But I guess shows what I know because he played really long. He goes and plays. I was with you. I thought maybe they would. And interestingly enough, you mentioned that series with Vegas and Fleury and Lainer because I swear if you could give Pete DeBore truth serum to go back to that series,

I think he would have put Robin Lainer in the first round early. Flurry was so good early in that series, but you could see him wear down as it went on. and he ultimately gets them through it, but I'm not sure there was much left in the tank, even with Lainer going in for that game. And so, you know, I think there would, interestingly enough,

one of the examples where the value of a tandem and having gone away from it prematurely, I think was costly to Vegas. I fully understand why they're going with Jeremy Swayman. And yet, like, just to give you numbers that back up what we all saw with Lina Sallmark, like Jeremy Swamen with the 958 or whatever crazy save percentage is right now, is plus 5.7% above his expected say percentage.

That's his save percentage differential. In the one game he played, Linus Almark is plus 4.8%, which is like Jeremy's third in the NHL in the playoffs, Joseph Wall, well, Lerimberswes shouldn't count because that was just a mop-up. But Joseph Wohl and his two starts had a better adjusted save percentage.

So then it's Swamen to Aden Hill 3 and Linus Allmark 4. So Allmark's expected in that game, like you said, game was 849. So if anybody looks at that and looks at the wrong numbers and like, oh, you can't go back to Linus Almark. That's absolutely not true.

And again, if you look at the balance of the regular season and you look at the adjusted numbers, he was slightly better overall. So, but the heater that Swam and on, man, it's going to be hard to pull him out. Yeah, he's just playing so well. And he, what, stopped 38 to 39 in that game one. We're recording this before game two, so we'll see how that goes. And he's not Mark Andre Fleury-old. He's not.

And also, like, he faced, I believe, just under 1300 shots in the regular season. and for context, like Bobrovsky, who wasn't, you know, the Panthers didn't ride him by any means in regular season. Like they were very comfortable playing Anthony Stollars, who was just as good, if not better in his opportunities, faced like 300 plus more shots in the regular season than Swayman did. And so that's a massive gap to kind of show you just how relatively unused, I guess he was and probably explains a little bit of just how fresh he looks.

Now, I mentioned kind of how he's seen the puck without like actually talking to him and knowing it. just from watching it, that's what it feels like to me. I'm not sure if you're sort of seeing that, but just the way he's kind of, and maybe this speaks to what you're saying, okay price in terms of like the how to goalie, like just how positionally sound and centered he is on all this. Like you probably could cut up a highlight reel of these first seven games

to show you like some really wow saves. But for the most part, a lot of them, he's almost doing himself a little bit of a disservice in that sense because he's making it look so easy when you know it's not actually, right? like he's moving, having to get himself position again, and then absorbing it. And the final result looks like, oh, the shooter just shot it right at him. When in reality, in sort of lesser hands, maybe.

It would have looked much different, maybe a goal or maybe a highlight real save. It was made to look much more difficult than it was. And so, you know, that's a testament to the way he's playing. Yeah, and he's always moved well. He's always had great edge work. He's always been a great skater. And like, quick shout out to a story I did years ago and to him for sharing this. Like, one of the things that I always love telling this one,

because maybe new people haven't heard it before. So if you have heard it before, forgive me, but it's a beauty. I've got to share it. He unlocked sort of his ankle mobility and his skating while he was at the University of Maine by taking a ballet class. That was one of the things that I think they'd had some, I can't remember the exact, some older skaters out players that had taken this

as an elective and they felt like it really helped their skating. And so he took it. And his mom actually teaches bar ballet. And so when you see in the past couple years, you'll see this sort of before games, before practices where he's out there skating and it looks almost like figure skating. Like he's so good on his edges as a skater. A lot of that comes from that work, that ballet work,

and sort of how it unlocked his ankle mobility and his control over his skating. And so he says this incredible skater who uses a lot of shuffles so it gets himself square without having the open and close motion of a T push and the inherent sort of delays to set that that can bring with it. shuffling allows you to keep your edges parallel to the puck rather than again like a T push you've got to sort of go perpendicular and then sort of close it back into the puck angle and so if plays go east west you're in a shuffle you can grab that edge

and go back the other way and so these are things that Jeremy does very well I think when you combine that skating to me where the sort of the zone comes in and I'm going to have to ask him this now to see if he sees it the same way when your reeds are there when everything is you're anticipating and you know where it's going and you're it and all those things so that every time you make a push, you know where the puck is headed, you know if it's a right or left-handed shot is a one-time-un option,

is he more likely, like, all those reeds come together with that skating, and that's how you get that goalie how-to DVD moment where everything that should be a great A is hitting you in the label because you're there and showing them almost nothing else. Yeah, it's kind of eerie how sort of unbothered he looks, and he doesn't really give up, even in the regular season. I know that you kind of went back and watched a large sample of goals against to sort of track where he was being beaten.

I can't recall too many times where he would get beaten by a puck that shouldn't have gone past him or like an unchallenging one. Like, you know what I mean? Like either straight line shots or stuff from the perimeter, it feels like he just absorbs that with sort of like a freakish frequency to me. And so that's what we were seeing here, I noted in the Leaf series that in particular what Brendan Carlo was doing when he was out there that doesn't get baked into a lot of these stats,

whether it's time and space or whether it's pressure, how he was using his stick to essentially limit shot opportunities for the opposition where they couldn't get full velocity on. And I imagine that helps in terms of predictability, kind of, of getting to getting through your spot and then being able to prepare yourself for that shot, not to take anything away from his performance. But the reason why I bring that up is because I want to talk a little bit about how you beat him at this point, right? Because this was kind of part of your article as well in terms of what some of those weaknesses

are, where you beat them. it was interesting that you noted in that piece. And this was a bit of a common theme, I think, for a lot of these goalies, was going against the grain against him. Yeah, and you're right. Like, it is common. Like, you know. I guess it makes sense from a momentum perspective, right?

Like when you're kind of moving in one direction. Yeah, it's not something that gets tracked a lot. Like I do it in my manual tracking just because I think it is like shots that allow you to keep moving in the direction you're moving. And there are some goalies that are well below the average. But yeah, some of these guys, it's interesting. And maybe that speaks to the other thing that, and I wish I do a lot of this stuff manually

or in a database that I can't quite pull up, you know, in real time here because it's old school and complicated. You got to send a carrier pigeon to deliver them. Pretty much. Pretty much. Well, it's technology and I'm not, we've established with the Discord crowd. Not all that bright.

That's why it takes me so long. The Discord crowd is, I don't sleep very much. You acknowledging them right now. But a lot of like, like so against the grain, yeah, where you catch them moving one way. There are trends that sort of play in the, that I was a little surprised on him because of that movement and because he usually squares up so much in that movement and because there isn't a lot of drift or flat retreats.

He stays square in a lot of bucks. It's usually the guys that retreat in straight lines back to their posts that don't sort of continuously build angle on plays down the wing. They're usually the most susceptible to clean shots against the grain because inherently as you retreat staying parallel to the goal line, the deeper you get in the zone, the less square you are on the shot. You're sort of, you know, your backside hip, shoulder pad are flat. They're off angle.

And that's where pucks tend to leak through you or it's harder to react to that far side shot. And we do see that trend quite a bit. Like, that's not a part of Swamen's game. So I was surprised myself to see that that number was still higher for him. And it may speak to just the reality is like it's for him, it's not just against the grain, but it's against the grain after a slot line pass with a one-timer. Right.

And this is also nitpicking. as well, right? Yeah, yeah, like everything is relative, right? And also the reality of tracking 100 goals during his regular season is he wasn't on the heater he was on right now during all 100 goals. And so a lot of trends you see, like this was the challenge with Jake Ottinger. There were times during the season where he, I mean, he obviously didn't have the season he wanted. And so a lot of the trends that appeared there physically in terms of how he was playing

like technically and tactically weren't there down the stretch, right? like so you're looking for at trends that are they relevant anymore and the one thing I'd say also about swimming like a lot of the goalies where on the goals it's not there's a primary theme to how they got beat like this is the main reason it went in but oh yeah there also was a screen and they're also what like there's multiple layers to the guys that are and that's probably what it's going to take against swim and then you know so it's going to take a slot line pass on a power play but also there was traffic so he didn't read the release of the pass and was late getting over to it like that's what that's what you know.

what it takes when a guy's playing as well as him. Well, the reason why I know it is, because the one goal he did give up in game one that we have to work off of was that exact play. It was a four-check turnover, comes to Matthew Kachuk, a relatively harmless-looking shot because it's a bit further out,

you know, Matthew Kachuk is more of a passer himself, so you're not necessarily known for ripping a puck from there, but he's moving to his right, he's drifting to his right, he goes back, blocker's side to the left, and it gets by his way,

and that was the one. So it's against the grain. It's off the rush. It was like an offensive zone for check turnovers, but it was like a quick sort of snap, snap play where the puck moved quickly, and it was kind of unpredictable as well. And that kind of, I think, speaks to when a goal he's playing this well.

You're probably going to have to manufacture goals through like quick hitting, either turnovers or passes of that magnitude. Easier said than down, you also had a note about it's like, all right, well, sometimes he can kind of cough up rebounds in front of them as opposed to angling him off to the side. and the Panthers are generally a really good team

at crashing the net and having bodies there to work those rebounds. So that sounds great, but also the Bruins are playing well defensively as well. And they know that that's part of Florida's repertoire as well. So an area of focus for them, I'm sure, is boxing out. And so that's where you get into these fun matchups in the playoffs. Well, and I'll say, too, like the one thing about Kachuk shot,

like not only is it against the grain, but it's low just over the sort of that low blocker just over the pad, which, I mean, Jeremy's numbers are fine there. but, you know, any goalie. Like there are spots you hit where if you hit them, it goes in most of the time, right? And that was pretty close to, you know, perfect shot. Did you see Jake Allen at the start of the postseason

talking about that, uh, the triangle between like the heel, the heel of the stick and the, he's a, he's a true. That one was cool because, you know, he obviously, as part of the goalie union himself, part of it, I'm sure, just coming to defense of Alexander Georgia because he was getting so beaten up after that game won and that's the goal they were reverence.

but I did find it hilarious. They showed Adam Lowry, who scored the goal against George, I'm scoring the exact goal against Jake Allen earlier in the year, and showing, and I like what he said there where he said, if the shooter hits their mark, there's almost nothing you can really do other than, like if you're kind of playing for that and then you're cheating, but then that kind of opens up a whole other canad of worms for you,

so you can't necessarily be doing that. Well, what's interesting is when we did this playoff tracking project, and I've done it since 2017, this is actually the first year, and this was just in the interest of my sand. humanity, frankly. But this was the first year where we just labeled all five whole goals as five whole goals. We used to have three locations for five whole goals. One was middle. That's the pure five whole goal. And then there was one underneath each pad. And that was us trying to identify

is there a tendency. Because the reason that space is there, it's not just like if it's in a straight line, a straight line attack and you're dropping to the butterfly, you're dropping level into the butterfly. It's probably not going in there. The reason that triangle that Jake referenced exists is usually if you're coming off the wing or coming down a side. And for the goalie, like for example, if you're coming down the left wing to the goalie's right, and so the goalie is worried about either a pass to his left or a move to his left, he has to hold that edge on his right skate. So inherently, in order for him to keep that edge in the ice to push, anticipating a pass or or a cutback, the knee has to be off the ice.

And depending on your flexibility and the width of your butterfly, even more for some guys. And so as long as you're holding that edge and preparing to push, it's really hard to drive that knee to the ground. And that's why we used to track each side goals underneath the pad to identify, is that a trend where this goalie, you know, maybe cheats a pass by loading up as opposed to squaring up on a shooter. And that is more vulnerable.

And I just love that Jake pointed it. out. This isn't just, oh, beating him before he can get to the ice in a butterfly. This is recognizing that on this play, he wants to push in that direction, so he has to keep this skate loaded, and inherently to keep an edge in the ice, the knee can't be on the ice also. Well, now, did you see, to follow up on that? Did you see Henrik Lundquist during one of the intermissions? I believe it was the game three of Stars Golden Knights. And it was the game where

the stars were down to nothing, so they came out with just chants after chance, and Logan Thompson was standing on his head and they had about, I think, four or five, either two-on-ones or breakaways and Logan Thompson stopped all of them. And Henrik Gunkwist was on the TNT panel that day. And they asked him, they asked him because he was talking up Thompson

and he was saying like, this is a masterpiece performance and it certainly was. And then I believe Anton Carter asked him, all right, well, as the goalie, do you see anything like, what would you be telling the shooters to do then because they just keep getting stopped on these breakways? And he had this really fascinating anecdote,

I thought of how he was noticing that the way Thompson was dropping one of his pads essentially, it was like creating an opening five hole because he couldn't get the other leg down in time as he was moving. And so he was saying like, yeah, you essentially would just make him go side to side and he's going to open that up. And every time it's there, but they were trying to do other stuff and they weren't scoring on it. Now it's ironic because they played him for that game three. They played him game four. Then the Vegas Golden Knights went to Aiden Hill for the final three, right? And Aden Hill performed really well, and those three wasn't the reason they lost by any means. But Thompson himself played really well in the first four, right?

And that game three was like 43 or 46, a shot saved. Yeah, he was really good. They were both really good. I thought there was an interesting thing that I was noticing in that series, though, and it's kind of ironic because it's almost the opposite, because they were shooting high on him in game. Why Johnson scores the winner, right? He kind of gets him to drop, and then he hits his mark up top. Another sharp angle reverse VH.

Yes. And then game four, they just kept going to it. And the Donov scored one. They missed a few others. there were close calls. Like they were actively going out of their way. Okay. So,

and the thing that Logan was doing, and it drove me a little nuts, is, and I don't know, but I do wonder if one of the reasons they made the switch, because I can't see Sean Burke not correcting this. Like,

we've talked about reverse VH in that short side high, and we've seen Pucks bank off the head, even in these playoffs, right? Like, that spot is there. But when you go paddle down

on those plays, when you, and for those who, can't picture it. It's basically just taking the paddle your stick and dropping it to the ice, which means your blocker hand is also dropping to the ice. And if I drop my blocker hand to the ice, what happens to my blocker side shoulder? It's supposed. It drops further towards the ice. Like, by going paddle down in that situation, and he was both times, you are like, it's a little bit of, I really like Logan Thompson and his game, but it's like this, this one bugs me because it's

borderline useless like frankly okay so you're going paddle down to what to cut off a pass into the middle literally your stick might stick out six inches further than your pad already does you are now taking your shoulder your blocker your arm your stick and having them all cover the same thing the pad already is like you're losing so much coverage and gaining almost nothing it's a pet peeve of mine we see a lot of goals and everyone goes reverse vh reverse vh it's terrible and I'm like No. Or they say, what do they call it? Reverse VH fail. I mean, no, it's a failed reverse VH because there's no way that should be a paddle. Camp Talbot, Connor McDavid.

Yeah. During the regular season, it was all over the highlight reels. Again, paddle down, expose the top. But the paddle down really, like, I get it if you're trying to cut off a pass, but are you really cutting off the pass when, you know, the paddle of your stick is basically sticking out maybe six inches further than your pad, right? Like, to me, it's just not a tradeoff that's worth it. And interestingly enough, not to digress, but I will. you saw Talbot in the first round actually changed the way he played his blocker side post. Specifically, again, I mean, at the end of the day, didn't help because the Oilers ran them out of the building.

But specifically for that McDavid shot just above the goal line, he started tucking himself all the way in the post, which makes it easier to get the short side coverage high, like literally changed how he played his blockerside post to handle McDavid. And after getting beat by Johnson, and okay, it's a rush chance you're not you're not executing into a reverse. I'm willing to, that happens. But when they kept going to it and he didn't make an adjustment, like that's a change you need to make. And I'd be curious, I wish I could be a fly in a wall in that conversation amongst the biggest staff.

With like, hey, man, if he's not going to fix this, the other guy can get his shoulder to that near side post. And we saw he'll make a lot of saves on attempts to score on similar shots in the final few games he was in. Well, that's why I found it so fascinating. You know how much I love this kind of game inside the game type of thing. And you see that a lot in the playoffs. And I think this is a great example of it because there's nothing necessarily in the aggregate

that would suggest it was performance related to switch because, as I said, Thompson had like a 9-21 save percentage in these four games. But after Dallas kept going to it, they made that switch. And I almost wonder if Dallas noticed it on tape and then made up a concerted effort to shoot there. And then Vegas noticed what was happening. And then almost proactively, I know they lost games three and four, so it's easier to justify. How many saves on similar type of shots that he'll make where he just shrugs that shoulder? Well, that's what I'm saying.

It probably doesn't even go seven unless they, unless, you know, either they bring in Hill or Thompson himself makes that change. And so that conversation is endlessly fascinating. We don't know for sure. Yeah. But like to think that Dallas didn't see it, given how often they were going to, it seems unlikely. No, it was a concern for sure.

Yeah. And like I said, I would like to be a fly on the wall. My hunch is maybe it had at least had something to do with it. But the reality is I don't know. At the end of the day, it was, and this is, like you said, this is the back and forth of a playoff series, right? And I will hit the other thing, too, like, because this feels like piling on

and I thought Logan was excellent in that series like he got them, you know, wins in the first couple of games. The dead on-off shot, there was a screen there too. I'd still like you not to, I'd still, and I think a lot of goalie coaches would prefer you not to be paddle down

in that situation. But like as that puck is released, there's a flash screen. I don't think Logan Thompson even saw that. So a little goalie union defending going on here. It was a hell of a shot and there was a screen involved, but I think your chances of having more high coverage are increased significantly

if your stick and your blocker aren't on the bloody ice dragging your shoulder a foot lower than it needs to be. I mean, we don't know with speculation. I will say, though, after that play, the camera showed to Donov sitting on the bench and he's like imitating the doyink off the head and laughing with people on the team on the bench. And part of it is like, it must be fun as a shooter. I'm sure to execute that and actually get a goal on it. It was a big goal in the playoffs.

So there's all that. But I don't think any of this was. accidental of a guy just kind of wildly as it looks, right? If you don't know better, you're like, oh, he just wildly threw the puck from the goal. I was like, no. I say this all the time. If it's Columbus on a Tuesday night and my goalie coach has a complete breakdown, the reality is there are still guys. There are still guys on the team that will

dig into the minutia and look for places to shoot and tendencies. And if I get a breakaway, how do I score on him? And if I'm in the shootout, how do I score on this guy? They'll pay attention to that in the preschool. But when it's one of 82, like I, said Columbus, Nashville, whatever, Florida on a Tuesday, you're not dialing in. In the playoffs, those tendencies, if players believe in that pre-scout and believe that those tendencies can get them goals in key moments, you bet your ass they're dialing in on that and they're paying attention.

Okay, Kevin, we've got to quickly squeezing a break here before we go too far in the weeds, which is funny because that implies that we're not already yet. We will take our break here. We'll come back with Kevin Woodley and keep chatting. you're listening to the Hockey P.D.O.cast streaming on the SportsNair Radio Network. All right, we're back here in the Hockey Ptodley-Kevon. We talked about Swayman and some playoff kind of, I guess, planning for Europe opposition and then trying to target it in the first half.

I want to talk a little bit about Igor Shestirkin here, because he's got a 9-29, say, percentage in six playoff games so far. Now he was completely untested in round one for the most part. And that sweep with the Capitals, I think, as everyone anticipated, who had watched them in the regular season. But game two against Carolina was, a gem. I think he stopped 54 or 57 shots he faced in that game. And I'm sure that there's parts of the hurricanes that are thinking this. I'm sure there's a lot of people who are watching that

game thinking, oh brother, here we go again with Carolina, 57 shots, we still lose, we didn't score for a long time there. I got to say, though, listen, I've been more critical of their offensive approach, I think, than literally anyone in the world during this era of Hurricanes hockey. I tracked them for 43 scoring chances in that game. Now part of it was that it went deep into second overtime, which was the longest game so far of the postseason, but it was also the highest chance count that I had for any game so far. And a lot of them, too, were coming, I think, six from Gensel,

four apiece from Ajo, Jarvis, and Nase, three from Svetnikov. Their top guys got looks. Guys that can finish. Their top guys got looks, and just Sturkin made some big saves. And I want to talk to you about this because I think that game was much, more reflective of the stuff Shostriken did well than limitations of Carolina's offense the way we might have seen in the past. But it was the same result. And so I kind of want to talk to you

a little about that. And in particular, this matchup of, because Shastrickens obviously had a lot of success against Carolina in the past, in terms of maybe stuff he does that poses a difficult challenge for them beyond just obviously being a really good goalie. Yeah. So I'm going to be honest with you. I wasn't able to watch last night's game. I had a family, I had an anniversary I needed to take care of and not a wedding anniversary. So spent some time with some family. So I wasn't able to watch that one live and because we had a game this morning, I haven't been able to go back and repeat it.

So I don't, you know me, like, I don't like to talk out of my butt. I know people can't believe that. I think I must be doing it the whole time, but I like to do the work. So I'll pull up the numbers and I'll tell you what these say. You know, clear sight. 13 high danger, the Rangers had 11, so not a big discrepancy there. But expect the goals. Six and a half for the hurricanes, just over four.

and a half for the rangers. The biggest one, they created a lot of mid percentage. They scored on one of 15, like 15 mid percentage chances. That's the biggest difference there is they have a ton of mid. And hey, like, like those are chances that go in between 10 and 20 percent. So those are still significant chances. They're not the highest danger. So, you know, maybe a little bit of both there.

Like they definitely outchanged them by a significant margin. But in, hey, listen, even in double overtime, 13 great A's, 13 high danger chances, that's a ton. And they must have been high high, high danger. because on those 13, they created almost four expected goals alone. So, um, in terms of what, listen, like, I think a lot of what Carolina does historically and less so this season to your point. I've heard your discussions in particular since, since getting canceled.

And by the way, like Daryl Belfrey is so fun to listen to with you. Like I could listen just endlessly to you to talking about the nuances of offense. And so clearly, and I believe fully in what you guys discussed about. Carolina doing more. But historically, that hasn't been the case. And so if Igor Shastirkin has great career numbers against them and has built a ball of confidence up against them, even if it looks different now, like that matters sometimes for a goal. You can just feel like you see that swirly, whatever the hell it is logo on the front of that jersey and you're just like, I'm dialed. I got this. I think it's a hurricane. Okay. Okay. I guess it is a hurricane. Yeah, that was a cheap shot.

Not a my favorite logo. But honestly, like that can, like, it seems like such a fluffy answer, but that can matter. Of course. I've talked to goal is, you know, certain rinks, certain teams where they just feel really good. And so even if, you know, what the hurricanes are delivering is much more difficult than it used to be, you've got an incredible goaltender who has a sort of reference point where he feels good about what he does against you. That might buy you a couple percentage points. See, I think for them, and I know the number is your reference in there from clear side. aren't like the public ones where they're generally just geographically based on the rink in terms

of low to high danger right where it's like yeah high danger ones are around the net and like that one's obviously making in many different variables certainly screen and slot line passes and all those kind of things what i will say though and part of why i thought gensel was such a big addition for them was i think he gives them another way to beat a goalie like just ergan in that intermediate area where and those are that's that intermediate area like is where kind of the mid made chance, right? When you have a guy like him who doesn't need everything to be high danger to finish. Yes.

Right. Fair point. Because they're so good, like we've talked about this at nauseam, but point shots and then rebounds, right? But a lot of those rebounds that grade out as high dangers are so, the proximity to the goalie is so close that part of it is because of their finishing talent and part of it is because of the logistics of where the puck is, it's really difficult to elevate that puck.

So what winds up happening is a lot of. of those shots are either along the ice or at pad level. And Schisturkin, when he's playing well, has Inspector Gadgett legs and is so athletic that he just completely closes it off. You have nothing to shoot at. And they're easy saves for him. And they're not necessarily easy saves, but it's easy for him because of how good he is in that particular area.

So I'm kind of careful about passing this off as analysis because I think it's so obvious. But you have to elevate the puck against him. And it's obviously easier said than done. But I think part of why they don't do it at times, because I think if you're in the NHL, you're capable of doing it. This isn't a matter of like, regardless of their finishing talent,

every one of those guys, this is in beer league. Every one of those guys can lift the puck. Yeah, like they're like it's an accidental, no Raysies league. No. But they generally don't like to do that because I think a shot for them that misses the net

is viewed as such a negative because of the likelihood that it either exits the zone or kills the offensive zone possession, they prefer the low, less dangerous stuff, because then they can just pile on, spend full shifts at a time in the offensive zone, cycle the puck, and that is kind of like the engine to their offense, right? In this case, I think it's almost a necessary evil for them

to accept the fact that sometimes they're going to miss the net and the Rangers are going to get out with the zone and potentially even get a rush chance themselves, but they need to try to try to do that because they can't keep just shooting it into equals shistern't pad. So I don't know if you think that is actual analysis or whether it's the most common sense, obvious thing that's ever been said. But I do think that's like something they need to do because he's had a lot of success against them. A lot of what they do feeds right into that.

And so it's a problem and they just need to score more. And so to do that against him, I think that's kind of a point of emphasis for them moving forward. But listen, they lost two close games, one and double over time. They had plenty of chances. So I know, it's all doom and gloom, but they're heading home. I think they're still in a fine spot to make a really close series out of this, but the little margins here are going to matter. Yeah, so I'm just trying to, as you were talking, and I was listening, I was trying to scroll through sort of like isolate Igor's game last night and see what types of chances

exactly he faced, like go through the shot count, like, and how each one was identified and I'm seeing a lot of screens layered broken plays around the net, net broken plays, and offensive screens, defensive screens, screen, like a lot of stuff that, you know, screen deflections, a lot of broken play stuff, a lot of net play stuff. And as much as broken plays are a great way to score, right? Like they're hard to create and they are a great way to score. And if you can win those battles and get those second chances against a goalie who, you know, didn't get to feel that first shot because it hit a leg because of all the bodies

you're taking to the net, you know, that's the thing about like a rebound. If I give up a rebound, I know where it's going because I made the save. even if I don't see it and it just hits me at least most of the time I can feel it if it hits a leg in front I got no idea especially if it's through traffic and I didn't see the release in the first place but I have no idea as a goaltender right

so that can go anywhere and to your point Igor is and this is a phrase I got for a story actually from Ian Clark the goalie coach here in Vancouver when I asked him about what Igor and what separate him he moves like a hovercraft out there

so to me he's so quick along the ice his recoveries are so good you know we talked about that triangle you know and how you have to lift the knee to push. If you see guys like Swamen and Igor now, they have to lift the knee off the ice in order to push east and west like everyone else. But barely.

Like there's just, there's a range of motion through the hips and rotation and access to edges that allows them to make those lateral pushes and get rotation in them, especially Igor, like he'll rotate off his lead side with a reverse sea cut well on the ice.

Like it literally is a hovercraft. And so the space open along the ice and this is true of Swainman too, but maybe even to the endth degree with Igor and I think Vassi's like this as well, as he explodes across the end, there's less space open. There's less of that sort of quick putback stuff

that's going to go through Igor Shisterkin compared to other goalies. And then because rarely does he end up sprawled or having to extend or open up, he stays over his knees as he does this, doesn't open up much ice at all in the process, and maintains access to his hand, So you're not often going to be able just to shovel it back at the net and have it go in with him,

whereas there are some goalies you can. For sure. And you're going to need to finish. You're going to need to actually try to finish those chances and not just count on bang, bang, the speed of it. And normally I would be like, don't dust it off. The last thing you can do in this league is give them time and space and dust it off. But against guys like Igor who build vertical coverage over their pads, even as they move and maintain. it and don't give up that seal along the ice.

Like, you're going to have to finish those chances, not just shoot them. Yeah. If that sort of that wording makes sense. No, it makes sense because I think you've spoken about how a lot of times as a goalie, like most goalies, you just want to get back into the middle of your net because shooters are generally going to just try to shoot. Yeah. In an open net situation, that would be like say that first round highlight real save that

Bob made? Yes. Like, where did the guy shoot the puck right in the middle of the net? Now, that does not diminish anything from what Bob did. Yeah, I think having your back. turn into it increases the degree of difficulty. Well, and the first thing, first thing that Bob said afterwards when he was asked what happened, right, I got behind the play.

Like, he's, you know, we talk about it. His goal he's ever written articles on it. Like, the highlight real saves are not the ones that that's goal he's like to make. But the degree of difficulty in the athleticism required for Bob to get anything back to the middle. Like, this is not taking, that was, that was like, that was like chef's kiss stuff. But at the end of the day, as he's put himself in that desperate situation, he absolutely understands that that goal, that shooter,

looking at an empty six by four is probably putting something in the middle and so he put something in the middle and lo and behold so we have less than 10 minutes left here and i have to talk to you about this while i've got you in studio because i've been speaking about it a bunch on the show throughout this postseason and i on friday show i had sean shapiro on we were talking about this and then he was like next time you have woodley on ask him instead and so oh that's pressure because sean so good too so here's the thing a theme this postseason for me has been how deliberately teams have been showing that they're prioritizing, scoring chances over just shot volume.

And that's something that good teams typically do regardless, but I think this postseason, we've seen it to the end degree. And- Like Vancouver- That was the entire series. Lives and breathes it. Certainly. But game one of Dallas, Colorado, for example, I'll give you the numbers here

because I track them. They combined for 48 shots on goal. So the shots on goal were 26-22 Colorado, which is very low of end. for both teams, right? Colorado, Dallas, the fact that neither was, I mean, 26 is relatively close, I guess the 30, but 22 shots on goal for Dallas is very low. They combined for 42 scoring chances. It was 2220 for Colorado, so it was nearly a one-to-one ratio there. And I want to speak to you a little bit about the sort of from the goalie's perspective, the unique challenge, I guess, that these types of environments can sort of pose for a goalie because obviously each goalie is

to be different in terms of what they sort of prefer what type of environment they like. Some obviously thrive off of a greater workload. They just want to see the puck early and then they get into a rhythm. Others are fine if they don't. But at the same time, I imagine it's tricky because I think we still generally for the most part as a mainstream judge goalie performance based purely off of say percentage. 900, which only accounts for the shots to make it on net. Mm-hmm.

And. And actually now increasingly. so because the NHL's vetting them better than they ever have before in terms of what actually does hit the net. Right. And so, I think it's becoming incredibly tricky where, like, I noted that game six, I believe it was of Boston, Toronto, and everyone in the broadcast is talking about how the Bruins had two shots on goal or something in the period.

And I had Joseph Wolves facing like six scoring chances in that. Not that it was a master class offensive performance by Boston, but I feel like in these games, the shots on goal just aren't reflective of the game environment. or what the goalies are facing, yet they're not really getting credit for any of it. So I know it's music to your ears for me here to be talking about how it's just not doing justice to what the goalies are going through here. I've raised you well.

But I really think this is kind of, I said Swayman's performance in the story of the postseason. I think like the overarching theme for me is what you're seeing here because it's like you can't watch these games and be looking at that shot counter and be thinking that that's actually what's happening. And it's a concerted effort by these teams, right? They're sort of realizing you're not going to beat Jeremy Swayman with 45 point shots. I've told you the story before of sitting down and watching a game with a goalie coach from an NHL team.

And he's tracking. He's doing his work and I'm reporting and we're just talking and watching the game. And, you know, like there'll be a shot in certain situations. And some of them are kind of like, you know, based on location, you might even be like, oh, it's like a good chance, good open look. And he's like, yeah, it's a turnover. You know, like, and that's the mindset we're seeing, right? we have seen that shift. I think we've seen it already.

And this is one of the reasons that say percentage is down. Like, yes, offense is up for sure. Like, this is no, I'm not denying that the skill, the types of chances that are being created, the understanding of how to create offense in today's NHL

compared to five years ago. Like, it's all changed. But also, the amount of easy shots are gone. And like, I did a story on this earlier this year and Casey to Smith talk. Like, he's a great.

Like, he's a thinker of the game and he understands these things. and he gave me some really good material. He's like, when he broke into the league, you'd have 32 shots, and 20 of them would be what we call 99 percenters. Stad batteries. Yeah, just absolutely. It's Christian Laytoner missing his own putback to grab another rebound, right?

Like, it's easy, and it pads your stats, and it makes you feel good, and you feel into the game, and you feel like you're feeling the puck. Well, now, guess what? It's 21 shots, and he said, I think he said, like, I'd have 30 shots, and, like, 20 would be easy, five would be mid, and, like, six would be really hard. And he's like, now it's like 20 and like 10 or 11 them are really hard and six or mid and like maybe five. You know, like it's my mass bad there. I probably got too many.

Anyway, I think all the numbers added up there. The point being like we don't have the easy, like, say percentage is coming down for a reason, not just like I made this argument. Like the goal thinning's ever been better and yet the numbers continue to get worse and worse and worse. Teams understand not only how to score and they're creating more of those types of chances, but they just don't waste opportunities like they used to. Rick Tocke talked about this between the Nashville series and the Vancouver series, and the numbers on ClearSight bore it out. Yeah, like, listen, there were nights there where they didn't generate anything, quality or otherwise.

But as that series went on in game five and six, even in game five where people like, oh, you're not going to win if you keep only generating 20 shots. And I'm like, yeah, but 10 of them were high danger, which not only is like, that's a good number, especially for this Vancouver Canucks team, but if I'm UC Saros and half of the shots I'm seeing are high danger, that's tough mentally. Like his mentor, ironically, Pecker-Rene would have hated that. Like that was his nightmare fuel, right? Like, change the way he handled the puck to try and stay engaged in games that were just like that.

And more and more that is becoming the norm for goaltenders. They're not busy. They don't get those feelers shots that get them into the game. But you still got to stop, not just all like the same amount of great A's, but actually more. And so you're absolutely right. I think we have seen that trend increase in the playoffs. I'm going to, now you've given me a project, I'm going to have to run the numbers. But it's a trend that we've seen for a couple of years now.

And I just, I think it's like everything. Like, there are trend setters. And then more and more the league seems to be just buying into and following this. And that just makes life tougher. And I said it before, multiple goalies have said this year, the position has just never been tougher. No, certainly. I think also, I'm curious for a take that on from the goalie's perspective, because that series is a great example of the Canucks Predators, the shop blocking in it,

And like what a concerted effort also from teams this time of year. It's like body on the line, everything, no matter what Tyler Myers is using every area, every area of him. Let's just say that I once had a company send us samples of a bulletproof cup, literally. Like they told us, it'll take a 38 slug. I couldn't find any testers. I don't know why. I thought about bringing that in for Tyler for that shot block. So from a goalie's perspective then, on the one hand, it's less of a.

workload for you because you're facing fewer shots. On the other hand, though, I imagine you still have to prepare for it as if it's coming to you and you're going to stop it, right? Because it's great to have faith in the defenders in front of you stepping up and blocking the shot, but also you can't necessarily take for granted that they will do so. Oh, no, look, like, no, of course not. Like, look at UC Soros, and this is what made his, he was brilliant in games five. He really was, yeah.

Game six in particular, he was outstanding. Game five got diminished by the sort of bad angle goal, which, you know, he fully copped to, got caught sort of, sort of. expecting a pass. But he was brilliant in those two games. And I think those performances were made even more impressive to me by how hard he had to work to that point, even though the Canucks weren't generating a ton of shots, because they were throwing stuff.

It wasn't getting there. It was all getting blocked. But watch the work he's doing behind it, especially as a smaller goal, like to try and find the puck through the lanes, around the bodies, through all that traffic, including his own guys. So, yeah, you can't relax. Like, it's actually harder work because you're always trying to find the puck through all those guys that are diving face first in front of it. So I don't think it, you know, I don't think it diminishes.

Like, you almost go back to the old coursey. Like those are shot attempts and you still got to work on every single one. Just because guys are getting them in front of them. I think you're actually working harder to find lanes and find vision. Some more work, but less credit. That sounds like hell. Sounds like the life of a goalie. And to go back to our first point, circle, you got to be crazy to do it.

Absolutely. That's what we call a great callback. Kevin, this was a blast. We've got to get you out of here. Everyone follow Kevin is in goal. Check out all those great work throughout this postseason. We'll have you on again soon again, I'm sure. My only plug is popular to the Discord, which we referenced. Kevin's on here acknowledging your guys. So if you want to be part of the sickle crew in there, In White Lake is in the show notes. Get in there. We're going to get Kevin in there as one day soon. And one quick plug. If you heard Demetre talking about the NHL.com playoff breakdowns, just go look them up on NHL.com. I credit my bosses for. for the past since 2017, giving me the project, the time and the resources to commit to doing it the right way to actually watching 100 goals on each goalie to do the breakdown.

That's a major, that's a feather in the cap to NHL.com for committing to me to do that. And so, yeah, please go check them out. And, you know, there's no like or subscribe or anything, but just go watch them so everybody can, you know, get our numbers up.

Absolutely. I mean, it's a phenomenal resource. So definitely co-assigned that. Kevin, that's all for today. That's the bad news because I could sit here and talk shop with you for many more hours, but we've got to get out of here. The good news is we'll be back tomorrow

with our pal Thomas Drens talking about game one of Oilers Canucks. So looking forward to that with another episode of the Hockey-Ped-Ocast streaming on the SportsNed Radio Network.