The Hockey PDOcast - TB vs. DAL, Kiefer Sherwood Going Berserk, and Contractual Dynamics Around the League Following Necas’ Extension

Episode Date: October 31, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Harman Dayal to discuss what they saw while watching the Lightning vs. Stars game on Thursday night, the career arc Kiefer Sherwood has been on the past couple of years after he went absolutely berserk yet again against the Blues, and some bigger picture takeaways about the contractual dynamics around the league and the unique window for teams to operate after this week's Martin Necas extension. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

It's the Hockey PEDEOCast with your host, Dmitri Filippovich. Welcome to the Hockeyedio cast. My name is Dmitri Filipovich. And joining me on another Friday to close out another week of shows is my good buddy, Harmon Dyle, Harmon, what's going on in? Nothing much. Just excited for another Friday to be joining you, breaking down some news and notes around the league. Yeah, we've made this a little bit of a staple here for our weekly schedules.

going to keep it going because uh you know Thursday nights or jam pack with games generally get at least double digit uh games to to watch and break down and so we've picked a couple that we're going to talk about today that we got to see last night we'll talk more about the marty nature's extension from earlier this week as well and a couple other fun things as you alluded to let's start with uh what i thought was the game of the night on Thursday in the league just from a an expectations perspective i guess, right? And the fact that these two teams and the lightning and the stars, obviously in opposing conferences, we don't get to see them play that often twice a year. And so I was fascinated to see what this would look like. The stars have some notable absences up front. The lightning have been

playing much better the past couple games after a very slow start to the year. And I think we saw both those things carry over in this one. I thought that it was just an absolute Brandon Hagle masterclass. He was by far the most dominant player on the ice throughout. And we can talk more about some of the stuff he did and what he's been putting on tape this season. But it was a really interesting game and ultimately ends with the beautiful winner in OT by Anthony Sorrelli. And so I'm curious for your takes on what you saw on tape when you put this one on. Yeah, the lightning just pounded the stars territorially.

There was one point in the second period towards the end of it where the broadcast pointed out that the stars only had two shots in their last 18 minutes overlapping to the latter stages of their first period. And I think that wasn't so much a reflection of, oh, the stars are playing so poorly as it was, this is what the Tampa Bay Lightning at their best look like. Even the goal that the stars had to tie it,

tip goal off of a floating point shot. And preceding that, you had Kutrov hitting the crossbar and Jurgensen's hitting the post shortly before that too. So the stars were lucky to get a point. by forcing it to overtime, but from a lightning perspective, the biggest thing that stood out to me was how beautifully they were transitioning the puck up the ice as a five-man unit, just all game.

It was so textbook. And it was, to me, the forwards doing the extra work to help with the transportation. It wasn't a lot of dazzling plays by Tampa's defensemen. We've spent a lot of time in the past talking about how the back end really is a weakness for the lightning. and even in a game where their breakouts and zone exits were so clean, to me a lot of that was the insulation that the forwards came. You would notice shift after shift the F3 that Tampa would have

coming so deep to help on exits behind the net, even if they weren't the one to single-handedly drive it, just having that extra option there to settle a puck, corral it, and then hand it off to a defenseman who now has time and space, it made a world of a difference. And once they were able to get the first pass going, you would notice the puck support where everybody was so well connected. And it meant each player when they had Puck possession,

had an easy angle for the next buildup pass to keep ramping up speed. It wasn't as if everybody was stretched apart and you're attempting these long stretch passes that the opposition can pick off. And I think that's ultimately why the lightning played so fast and controlled the proceedings last night was it's not even so much that they were skating so fast from point A to point B. But if you want to play at a rapid pace, how well you connect plays as a five men unit is is so essential. And that's where I think the forward forward group put on a master class for how to help on zone exits. And it drove a ton of offense off the rush too. Yeah, and these last four games for the Lightning are much more like what you expected from them heading into the year after how they looked in last year's regular season.

They've got four wins in a row now against the ducks, golden nights, predators and stars here most recently seven total goals against in those four games. An expected goal shared five on five north of 60 percent in each of those five games. They held Vegas to 19 shots on goal and just seven eye-angered chances. They kept the stars here at 21 shots on goal on Thursday night despite this game going into overtime. Yeah, you're seeing a lot of what you described there. You know, it starts off the stretch in that game against Anaheim, where Anaheim got more volume, certainly. But as that game carried on and Tampa was kind of nursing that late one goal lead,

they just turned into this forechecking bus saw not allowing the ducks to exit their own zone or even pull the goalie before it was too late in that one. And they've kind of carried it over where they're just playing at a much more connected, high-paced, well-oiled machine type of situation that I think we saw a lot, from them last year and just wasn't really evident in the first, whatever, six, seven games this season so much more possession time and kind of coming in waves. I think what helps is, you know, they're getting contributions from guys that honestly never heard of before this season. I was texting you about this, whether it's Dominic James or Charles Edward Das Stu, who's a 27-year-old

old defenseman who had bounced around between the HL, ECHL, ECHL, Liga, SHL, finally makes his debut this year. And both guys are currently, they're number one and two guys in 5-1-5, I've expected Goalshare this season in a smaller sample, but really giving them good reps. And Cooper's doing his thing where he rolls the 11 and 7, right? And what that enables is in a game like this, he essentially uses Sorrelli and Hegel to mix and match with whoever is available, either staying on from a previous shift or kind of melding two sequences together, right? And you saw a couple opportunities here where Hegel's able to kind of jump on after they've

had the puck in the offensive zone for a bit, recover a loose puck. and all of a sudden he gets that one wrap-around chance early in the game, and he's just making plays happen with fresh legs against tired opponents. And so I love that from a strategic perspective, something Cooper certainly utilized as well as anyone over the years. And I just thought, you know, Hegel was, after a slow start to the year from a production perspective, he scored in three straight games now.

And man, he was an absolute delight to watch on this one. Yeah, and I've seen some Team Canada projections around just in the media sphere that haven't included Brendan Hagle on it because his production has been a little bit slow to start and because Celebrini and Badard are off to hot starts that are making strong cases to be part of that team. And I think for anyone that is down on Hagle potentially making Team Canada because of lack of production,

just watch that Stars game. To give you the quintessential example of this is just a player that's been very snake-bitten and he was simply the textbook definition of a driver last night, 2331 time on ice, 11 shot attempts. And just what he's able to do with this combination of speed, the nonstop motor and the skill to also drive plays to the inside was such a treat to watch.

And I mentioned the 11 shot attempts, but he also set the table for his linemates on numerous occasions with what he was able to accomplish off zone entries. I wish I'd manually track that game because I imagine the just puck transportation numbers and the controlled entry numbers would have been off the charts. It's also funny. I think he hit one or two posts in that game and the one break he finally gets was on the power play. He gets a fortunate bounce off of Hayskinin's sticking in. but it was just funny because for all the great A's he created both individually and for others in the game, it was the one, the flukiest looking play that actually ended up getting him rewarded.

But you're right, he was a monster all night. And it's massive for this Tampa team to have him as an engine behind that Kutrov line. Not only that, I'll take it a step further. That bounce that he described was his first power play goal he scored since March 9th, 2024. and to put that into perspective how long ago that was, he scored 43 goals since then between power play tallies. Obviously, I think he had 35 last year somehow without a single one with the man advantage. He had 11 shot attempts and six scoring chances in this one. Might have honestly matched the star's total output there in scoring chances by himself.

He had a couple sequences where he was just breaking either S. Lendell or Nathan Bastion's ankles off the rush, the wrap rounds. He was helping create. Honestly, the defensive play, he made one-on-one against Ranton and O'Brien. overtime where he doesn't get a credit for an assist on Sorrelli's winner, but he sticks with him when Randon's kind of trying to go down low and then ultimately go stick on stick, knocks him off the puck, creates that loose puck for Sorrelli to jump on. And the rest is history and the usage as well. I noted to go on in the 11 and 7. I mean, how rare is it to see a team use their forward as their most heavily used skater? Like he in two straight games now has played nearly two minutes more

than any other player on the team, including their defenseman, which is remarkable. I mean, 2331 in this one, 2355 in their most recent game before this against Nashville. And so he's been incredible. He, I noted the goal scoring where he starts off with no goals in the first eight games. Now has a goal in three straight. 72 shot attempts. Six of them have hit the post. And he described the one he had in this one.

So he's been pretty unlucky. The regression's starting to hit. And so he's a lock for me. for that team candidate consideration. You have any notes on the stars? Because it's been certainly a slog for them in terms of 5-on-5 offense. You would have thought early in the year I spoke about how one of their weak links right now was some of the effort defensively getting back in transition.

You saw them get burned by that in a game against the Canucks earlier this year where they made the Canucks of all teams look like this speed demon in transition because of how slow they were to get back. And yet the thing that's been letting them down most recently has been, the fact that they're just not really scoring at 5-1-5, and there's some pretty alarming underlying numbers to point to. There are absences, certainly, but what are you seen from them right now

and how worried should we be about whatever's going on at that end of the ice? I'm not too-too-worry big picture. A couple things. One, I would have liked to see them find a way, even though Tampa was executing so well, to find a way to kill plays earlier, to step up in the right spots. there were a couple of moments, I want to say, in the second period, where you would notice,

all right, they're, they're making the right, reads to step up and be really tight on guys, break up a play, break up a pass. And it would, like, those would be the moments that the stars would then have an opportunity to regain puck possession, spend some time in the offensive zone. But they just weren't disrupting enough. I think it was too easy for Tampa to gain the stars line. I would have liked to see them a little bit more disruptive on the forecheck. And again, we raved about how much Tampa's forwards helped out.

That's obviously a massive part of it. But against the Tampa D that doesn't move the puck very well, isn't very mobile, I would have liked to see them find a way to create more problems, create more havoc off the forecheck. And then I'd also say from the back end, considering you have some of these forward injuries right now, I would have liked to see, Mirah Hastinen and Thomas Harley drive play a little bit better.

I thought both of them were caved for most of the night. And you just had moments where I remember one shift where Harley got pestered and stripped of the puck by Juergensons. And that's just a guy that Harley's usually able to effortlessly kind of beat up the ice. And same thing with Haskinen. I know with like he broke up a couple plays defensively and not saying he was terrible. but just as far as driving possession and making sure that the stars

were able to attack a little bit more, I would have liked to see those to be more impactful drivers to allow the stars to be on the front foot a little bit more. Certainly. I mean, listen, no Rupa Hins or Matt Duchet is obviously going to be a big drag on these teams 5-15 offense

and their outlook just because those are their two most dynamic puck carriers, right? The guys who are going to instill the most fear, do the most transportation, and setting stuff up off the rush. And so you remove that element from the equation and they clearly become more

methodical and plotting and stagnant and that's especially important in a matchup like this because as we've discussed in the past, Tampa Bay is vulnerable when you can get them out in space and attack them with speed and expose some of that defensive foot speed that they lack in zone settings

when they're able to kind of get set and defend in front of their own net, the lightning are still elite at doing that. And so when you're going to have to resort to creating all of your offense that way, because you don't have some of those puck carriers, it's going to be a long night for you. And I think that's what we've seen here.

They wound up using Wyatt Johnston, like nearly 27 minutes in this one, and really leaned on some of their top forwards with those absences. But yeah, I mean, it is a bit of a concern for me because they open the campaign with four or five on five goals against the Jets, another four in their second game against the abs. And in the nine games they've played since then, they've gone one, one, one, one, zero, one, two, zero, and one. That's eight total five-on-five goals in four hundred and three hundred and three.

five minutes of play at even strength. And so it's definitely getting to a point of being alarming. The firepower is very clear and their top players are going to be able to bounce back. But they're going to have to figure it out in the meantime. You got anything else on this game or do you want to jump to our next one? I just wanted to quickly note that it wasn't just the top guys for Tampa that were cooking. I mean, we mentioned Hegel. Kutrov was on one as well.

I didn't love his game on the power play per se, but at 5 on 5 to 10 attempts, and just the east-west plays he was finding. It could have easily been a three-point night for him, but also there are some of their bottom six minutes, right? The lightning had a 17-4 edge and five-and-five shot attempts with Yanni Gore on the ice. And Juergensons, I mentioned him earlier. He was breaking up plays in the neutral zone,

using his length to disrupt, and, you know, he hit the post. Obviously, you're not expecting any offense out of him, but just to have your bottom six able to continue, control shifts, not get hemmed in. And it was just terrifying for the lightning to have one of Kutrov doing his thing. And then, all right, Hegel steps over the boards. And then you would, you would have either a Gord or Juergensen ensure that none of that momentum is killed and that the team continues to play at a pretty good pace. And then some of the depth guys on the back end to, you know, I really didn't like Lillieberg's game at the start of the year.

but those guys have settled in a little bit better. And so there aren't right now anyway, as many chinks in Tampa's armor when it comes to thinking you can crush them in their fourth line minutes or when their third pair D is on the ice. Those guys are holding up well right now. Yeah. Well, we saw Cooper in this one. I mean,

he was very comfortable using that fourth line of Gorgensen's and Holmberg with McDowman and Cherenac. And I had to head match up against Randon and they held up just fine. and that unlocks a lot of stuff offensively. I'm with you on Kutraub as well. They had the pregame ceremony celebrating his 1,000 points he hit recently. And he had that one pass in particular in transition where he's kind of near the boards. And I forget the sequencing.

I think Gensel passes to him. And then point is just streaking down the left wing. And he essentially fires off that pass without even corraling the puck for a second. Like it was almost off a stick before it even reached him. And it was just such a vintage Kuturov play. And it would have been a beautiful. assist, but yeah, he, he was doing that at even strength, certainly. All right, we got to talk about Keyfer Sherwood here, because what he's doing right now is

absolutely unbelievable. I mean, he is competing and playing and producing like an absolute psycho, and I wanted to break down the trajectory for you in particular, because the sort of cycle he's been on here over the past three years and getting to this point is remarkable and worthy stories certainly of celebrating and he has the hat trick on Thursday against the blues carrying the Canucks offensively yet again has nine goals so far this season and so I want to talk a bit about that game but certainly just focusing on on what Sherwood's doing right now because it certainly seems like it's one of the the coolest stories going in the league. I love players that are all

gas no breaks. I think that's my favorite player type around the NHL. That's why we love Brandon Hagel so much. Kiefer Sherwood is obviously like a third line version of that, even though lately he's producing more like a first liner. But I love players like Sherwood that only play the game at this max all-out pace and intensity. And we spoke about Tampa leaning on some of their forwards for a ton of ice time. Well, in that Vancouver game, especially with Brock Basser getting hurt in his first shift and already being down, Connor Garland and Philippines.

Edel, Lekir Mackey, Bluger. Kiefer Sherwood played over 24 minutes in that game, and you can understand why. He was driving every time he was on the ice. He was pile up shots and chances at a prolific clip. You see how disruptive he is on the forecheck at all times. We know dating back to last year that he's the NHL hits leader, so you know you're going to get that pesky edge

and that side of him, which gets under opponents skin. Skinnan, the thing with Sherwood is, I think he's always had underrated offensive skill. Now, of course, with the nine goals so far tied for the league lead, is there a luck element to that? Of course, right? He's shooting nearly 40%. But this is a player that also scored 19 goals last year. And that's the first time he really had an opportunity to play higher up the lineup than

a fourth line. And when you look at his track record, even in previous years, this is a player who one year in NHL scored 36 goals in 75 points in 57 games. Like just torch that league. Even in Nashville, which was his first full year as an NHL player, he had 27 points to 68 games without any power play time on the fourth line. So you go back and just look at the sample of since the 2020, 23, 24 season.

So more than 150 games played, surewood's individual goals per 60 rate at 5-on-5 is just outside of the top 50 among NHL forwards and for context, it's a higher rate than Brock Bessers. And because you're in that sample looking at greater than 150 games, you look at the shooting percentage, it's 13% at 5-on-5, which isn't that high. And considering the nasty release he has and how much velocity he's able to generate, it's a violent release that he has. that part has been real for a long time.

And I think that's important to clarify. This isn't just some random no-name depth forward that is solely relying on luck. He's had a quiet, underrated offensive element to his game for quite a while. And now just with all the injuries out, he's getting the usage, the opportunity, and, of course, some added balances too, to really showcase what he's capable of. Yeah, the second and third goal he scored on Thursday in particular, the backhand on the breakaway, and then just ripping it coming down the weighing after an initial shot was blocked from a teammate, I believe, Boutaratu, had a shot earlier to come in from that same spot,

essentially on the ice where he just ripped it off the bar on the penalty kill. I mean, he's just, everything is violent about his game in the best way, and that shot as well in terms of the release and the impact it's doing upon arrival is certainly there. I mean, you highlighted some of the track record and how obviously this is a whole new level, but it's not like it necessarily came out of nowhere when you look at the per minute stuff. Still, though, I mean, the 23, 24 season, he's 28. He's played 186 to HL games, 119 NHL games at that point. It becomes his first full NHL season without getting sent down to the HL. He has 10 goals, 27 points, caps it off with that playoff series in round one against the Canucks,

where I think he certainly caught their eye with his play, where he was just all over at like a Tasmanian devil. And then the following season comes to Vancouver, instantly becomes one of the best value deals in the league at 1.5 million. 19 goals, 40 points, 15 of those goals, we have 5 on 5, the same number that guys like McKinnon, McDavid, and Matthews all scored, sets the NHL hits record, of course,

and does so with a positive penalty differential, which I think is a remarkable feat. And then this year as a 30-year-old upcoming, UFA, nine goals, zero assist in 12 games. I don't think anyone listening to the show needs us to talk about how he's not going to be a true talent, 37.5% shooter. I think that's obviously very clear, nor would I expect him to score nine goals out of every 12 games.

He plays the rest of the way, but this is such a fun story. The style he's doing it in with the swag and the flare is remarkably fun as well. And it's been a long road here for him, but even if there comes some regression from the shooting and scoring perspective, this is the exact type of player that gets the bag on the open market, right? Like a physical, energetic winger who makes plays, throws the body, scores some goals. We've seen this player type of four and they're going to cash in. And I'm very curious to see we're going to talk more about the NACIS extension and the dwindling

market of talent available in unrestricted free agency. I think we can add Sherwood to the list of not the high end guys, but someone who's certainly going to attract a lot of attention if he gets there on July 1st. Yeah, he's going to be a very good. really interesting litmus test for the NHL's new marketplace with the rise of the cap and whether middle class players will truly benefit from the rise of it or not. And I've spent the last couple of days just generally, I'm working on a story about how the skyrocketing cap is going to affect a lot of different market dynamics and player types and both agents and execs

on the team side. And there are split opinions on whether middle class players, players as a whole will benefit as much like one counterpoint that's been made to the to the point of well there's going to be a ton of new money in the system is this idea that as the cap reaches 100 million and beyond I think universally there is some concern that there aren't going to be as many teams as you would expect that can actually have the green light to spend to the full ceiling in future years that there will be be quite a few teams, maybe more than you expect, that will have internal budgets. And so if, if we know that top players are the first ones that are going to see the most significant inflation in

their salaries, well, then if you have a situation where some of these mid and smaller market teams need to be more disciplined in other areas, well, that's where the middle class could be affected. The middle class is going to be interesting because I think the key X factor to watch with those contracts isn't the cap it. I think it's the term, right? It's the difference between like Pia Suter on July 2nd getting four million times two versus Trent Frederick getting 3.85 times eight, right? Suter has a higher cap it, but I guarantee you he would way rather have Frederick's contract

with the $22 million of total value difference. I think Sherwood does strike me as a type, as you were alluding to, that will get paid because he has the rare physical profile that teams kind of place a premium on. Where you look at Tanner, you know, right, off a 13-point season, he got 3.4 million times five and I already mentioned Frederick.

I think the reason those teams were willing to overpay for those guys and really pony up is because they play this wrecking ball kind of style and have that rarer profile that isn't as common around the NHL. And Sherwood doesn't fully match the description to the extent that he's average-sized. He isn't this towering 6-foot-3, 6-4 forward. But we know he's the NHL hits leader and he gets under guy's skin. And that does strike me as the kind of middle-class guy that I don't think all middle-class players

are going to cash in in for agency, but Sherwood does stifference. realistically strike me as a type that will have a lot of demand for his services. Especially since there's a number of teams that come to mind right away that would fit the bill of being kind of generally younger, exciting skill teams that have cap space because either a lot of their talent is young or they've gone ahead and extended a lot of them long term under the previous CBA. And so all of a sudden looking ahead with more money available, this type of player is very appealing as someone you can kind of immediately just plug and play with a

complimentary skill set that can win extra pucks, benefit from an uptempo environment, and playing with other skilled guys while also adding some of that great sandpaper, however you want to describe it, to complement the young talent you have nicely, right? So whether it's a Utah, a Montreal, a New Jersey, Detroit, like all these teams would benefit from a player like this. And we've seen them act accordingly in the past similarly whenever someone like this has become available. So it'll be really interesting to see. Let harm,

let's take our break here real quick. And then when we come back, I want to get back into that Canucks Blues game for a second because I got a couple thoughts on, on the other side of it for St. Louis. And then we can talk more about the market and the nature's extension and some of the work you've done in that piece that you referenced earlier.

All right, we're going to take our break here. You're listening to the HockeyPedioCat streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network. All right. We're back here in the HockeyPediped. Beaucas joined by Harmon Dile to close out the week as always. Haram, before we went to break, we were talking about Kiefer Sherwood and his performance on Thursday against the Blues.

I wanted to quickly talk about what we're seeing from St. Louis now and where they're at because obviously one of the better stories in the league down the stretch last year, post-Fournations, post-coaching change, making that spirited run with the big winning streak, pushing Winnipeg in round one to as close to winning a series as you can before ultimately blowing it in that third period. But they've got some absences, certainly, with Rob Thomas and now neighbors out. Yet what they're doing defensively right now is what I wanted to focus on,

because 47 goals against in 11 games, a league worst, a 27, say, a percentage, which is remarkable. A 3-6 and 2 start to the season, I think you could lump a lot of what I've seen from them with another Central Division team that's fell short of expectations so far, the Minnesota Wild. But I wanted to talk to you about kind of what you're seeing from them so far, why it's been as poor as it's been defensively and how much of it is just the goaltending, not making saves the way they were last year

and how much of it is a real concern in terms of the outlook here for the central and the playoff race as a whole in the West. Yeah, the blues have been a tricky one to figure out. I think first and foremost, I don't want to make it as simple as just the goaltending because there have been other defensive. question marks, but it's hard to look past them having an 857 safe percentage at 5-on-5, which isn't just dead last in the NHL.

It's dead last by a mile. The Leafs are the next lowest team, and they're at an 872. So the goaltending they've been getting from Hofer and Bennington just found hasn't been good enough. I was looking before last night's Canucks Blues game, and according to evolving hockey's model both Binnington and Hofer rank bottom five in goals saved above expected. So neither one is making any saves right now. But I also don't want to completely dismiss the team's overall defensive form as well.

Because I think there have been holes. First and foremost, the Logan Mayufit just hasn't worked at all. They've been outscored 10 to 1 with him on the ice at 5-on-5. and you can see he's just making a lot of mistakes when he's out there. Took a couple of penalties in that Canucks game. And the one especially where he hung the leg out on Sherwood was just very undisciplined. And I think the blues were obviously intrigued by his pox skills and the offensive potential

that he might have. But so far, he's been a bit of a train wreck defensively. I don't mean to single just one guy out. but that stood out to me and then just overall in that Canucks Blues game this is a team that wants to play very aggressively

that encourages its defensemen to join the rush as much as possible you see when there's an opportunity to break on the counter that all three forwards are flying up the ice and coming in deep when you're gonna play that aggressive in your face style

you're you're going to be prone to getting caught a little bit if and when you do make mistakes with your execution. And that's where off the, for example, Sherwood's second goal, I want to say, it came off an entry where the Canucks are actually in a decent defensive structure because O'Connor was hustling back as the F3. The Blue is forced to play into the middle. It's a turnover and that's what allows the Canucks to spring Kiefer Sherwood in for. the breakaway and he made the nasty move to beat Bennington. But the point being, like they want to play this up-tempo style and it generally has worked for them. But

right now you also see moments where they're forcing plays that that maybe aren't there and they're a little bit sloppy with that execution. There was another play in that game where just a point shot into shin pads that led to another breakaway. It's just a little bit sloppy with the puck right now. And especially at a time when your goaltenders can't bail you out, that's going to be a recipe for letting up a lot of goals. Yeah, you described that Sherwood sequence drawing the penalty on Mayu, and then Sherwood comes back and scores the power play goal on the ensuing man advantage. We need to come up with a with some name for a stat, the tracks, how many times a guy is drawn a penalty and then scored and converted on that power play.

I know in football, you've got the octopus where it's a player who scores a touchdown and then converts the two-point conversion ensuing as well. We need something like that. I'd be fascinated to see who the league leaders are in that. Yeah, I'm with you. I think ultimately what I've seen actually is the goaltending has just been the biggest issue for me. And in particular, watching some of these broadcasts, and you saw it again on Thursday night,

you've got the opposing teams, commentary team talking about how good the blues goalies are at going back and playing the park and breaking the forecheck and being a third defenseman out there. And then every other time they've been mishandling it and it's either led to a chance or a goal against and it's burned them numerous times. It did again against the Canucks on Thursday. And so I feel like that being righted is much more likely

than what we're seeing in Minnesota where I'm quite alarmed about what we've seen from them where there's similarly three, six, and three. They have an 871 save percentage. But their penalty kill is somehow giving up 17 goals against Pira. hours so far, which is unathomably bad, and their net front coverage on all these plays. You watch on Thursday against the Penguins. Every goal they give up is seemingly someone losing a battle in front of the goalie and either bouncing in off someone or being a tip or being a wide open tap in. And so that's going to be much tougher to address than some of the stuff that's

ailed the blues. But that game must have been incredibly frustrating for them on Thursday. As you could see with the culmination of Braden Shen dumping the puck in on the shootout opportunity and losing control of it and then the camera panning to Jim Montgomery and him just having a completely exasperated face after all of it in a game where they out shoot the Canucks 39 to 18, get lit up by Keeper Sherwood and losing a shootout. It was a very on-brand game for the Canucks in particular where they've had a number of these so far this season. All right, want to talk and close out today's show about something we kind of hit on a little bit before we went to break, but it was this piece here writing for The Athletic about the nature's extension in particular beyond just. the impact of him siding in Colorado. I think the league-wide trend for these types of deals,

some of what we're going to see moving forward, what we can learn from stuff like this, all those kind of mechanics that we've seen from these past couple deals over the first month, the season or so. Let's break that all down and kind of get into some of the conversations you've had around the league about it. Yeah, so just making some calls,

not about this extension in particular, but just the recent trend of a lot of big name RFA and UFA extensions getting done. And the market definitely shifting higher. I think nature's set 11.5 is a substantial ticket. And I think it's reflective of a couple things happening. One is I think the Caprizov deal was a catalyst for teams realizing that the contract marketplace is indeed shifting.

I think we know that Caprizov because of the unique situation in leverage he had in Minnesota. It's not that Caprizov at $17 million is comparable for all these guys. But I think at the very least, what it did was make teams realize, oh crap, Stars are going to make a lot more. And our in-house star might not have to go up to $15, $16, $17 million to keep him. But we're going to have to probably pay him more than we're comfortable with. And I think that's when the domino effect starts, because then eventually Eichol signs, then it connor signs.

And now all of a sudden, if you're the Colorado Avalanche, there's some pressure on you because NAC is off to a terrific start. A lot of the other top pending UFAs have already signed extensions. And I think that was likely the motivation for them to be a little bit more aggressive in wanting to close this deal. Because I think the two sides have been talking, going back to, the summer, but really, I think this is teams realizing that this is going to be a new marketplace. And that's the interesting thing is I think it's a feeling out process on both the agent and

the team side of how different are things going to look in this new cap world. And I think earlier on, one piece of feedback that I get a lot is GMs and teams hate this notion of cat pit percentage when you're trying to use comparables. and to negotiate numbers, they obviously want to look at the raw capits of, all right, nature is you comparable to this guy who made $9 million or whatever, you're a $9 million player,

that's how much we want to pay you, whereas the agent will come and say, well, hold on a second, cap's about to skyrocket. You look at that percentage of the cap, it's a way higher number now. And I think there was some resistance to that. And there still is,

but I think it's swinging in the pendulum of, of the players kind of winning out here. And it's reflective of teams caving a little bit on that front. There's a lot of fascinating dynamics to that. I think this also applies to some of the young RFAs as well, right? And we're reaching the point of the regular season here around the, you know, 10 game mark or so where teams are going to have to make decisions on some of these young guys, especially if they've managed their workload a little bit,

sat them out a couple times. And they're approaching seven, eight games played so far. and we recently saw Pittsburgh, I think, partly because of how well he's fit in at 5-on-5 with his underlying numbers and his goal scoring and partly because they're playing really well and finally have a bit of life within the organization, the penguins decide to keep Ben Kendall up, right? And I think there's been a prevailing school of thought before that if a guy's not ready or if you're an organization that's not really going anywhere this year, you're better off sending them back down, giving them more reps at a lower level where they can

dominate, but also financially protecting that ELC and then having another extra year, essentially, where they're making so little compared to their relative production. And I think that dynamic is starting to flip as well, where teams are realizing that the sooner they can get their young guys extension eligible, the better, because they're going to be more likely to be cost control because they're just going to be younger, less productive theoretically because they haven't hit their private physically. They haven't gotten certain opportunities yet. And so all of a sudden now you have more leverage to lock them in at a reasonable number for eight years, as opposed to if you wait an extra year or two, and they're

more developed and more productive. And it becomes tougher to accommodate that. And so I don't know if you've had any conversations around that, but I've certainly talked to a few executives around the league and they seem to feel that way that trying to push their young players to become extension eligible as soon as possible is becoming preferred. Now, as opposed to kind of elongating this process like we used to in the past. Yeah, and I think the smart teams have already been doing it. You look at the Carolina Hurricanes with Jackson Blake and Logan Stankovin a year before their ELCs expired. Frank Nazar, great example of that, right?

Watching Nasar play, you could see just how much he'd improved in the middle of the season and then coming off that dominant performance for Team USA at the world. you could see, all right, this guy is a very strong breakout candidate, but he looked at his resume up until that point. The numbers really weren't that flashy, and so Chicago got ahead of the curve and signed him to a long-term deal at just under 6.6. And now look at him.

He's 21 years old, 11 points in 11 games, crushing it as their 2C, and now you've got him signed through 2033 at 6.6. That's going to be one of the best value contracts. in the league and where like and it hasn't even kicked in yet. So that's that's what they've been doing and you saw it, you know, to,

to an extent with Calgary as well with Dustin Wolf and I know he hasn't had the best year. But on the flip side, I think this is where a team like the Ducks probably missed out on an opportunity where I like them getting ahead on resigning Jackson-Lacombe. But knowing the breakout potential that Leo Carlson and Cutter Goce had, how smart would it have been to try and really aggressively extend those guys this summer before Joel Quinville gets a chance to work with them before they get a chance to play in a wide open offensive style? And now the price of their next contracts are going to be through the roof. So I think the teams that have been most aggressive and proactive about this have been rewarded. And look, not all of these contracts may necessarily pan out in terms of teams paying for trajectory rather than past performance.

But I think that's the prudent way to go about it, especially because in a rising cap world, you have a little bit more leeway to if you are wrong. And all of a sudden you've got a guy that's probably making a million or two million too much. Well, that's not going to kill you. That's not the end of the world. It's from a risk-to-war perspective makes a lot of sense. Yeah, I'd include the Sabres in there as well in terms of a team that would have benefited from being more proactive, right? Whether it's Zach Benson and, you know, he finishes last year with 28 points in 75 games in his second year, it's visible to anyone that's paying attention looking at the tape or even just thinking about this pragmatically that he's going to explode this year and he's already got eight points in eight games or Alex Tucker,

who seemingly with every passing day gains more and more leverage moving forward just because he's having a productive year, but also the market around him is dwindling so much. If, you know, there's generally, I think the sentiment is that eventually, after this long cat and mouse game, Kempay is going to get a long-term deal in L.A. and take him off the market as well. And then you're going to look around.

And, you know, Panarin's almost in a different ballpark because he's going to be 35 in the first month of his next deal. And then you've got this class of guys. like Tuck, who's pretty clearly atop of it with Bjork Strand and Marchman and some other forwards. And so if you all of a sudden have a need atop of lineup, have the resources, a guy like that is going to be able to cash in. And, you know, nature similarly would have been able to get more than the 11.5 he got on the open market, right? I know there's a number of teams that would have increased that pretty significantly. it's just tough to not only beat the fit in terms of getting to play with McKinn and McCar and on that top line in this fast-based environment,

but also the aves utilizing the leverage they have contractually under this current CBA of giving him the eighth year, which will be his age 35 season, giving him 60.4 out of 92 million paid out in signing bonuses, and then having a structure where he's getting paid $14 million in the first four years, and all that stuff is not going to be allowed to happen specifically under the new CBA. And so this is why we've been talking about the fact that teams are just so likely right now to retain all their talent until that changes because they can just offer them something that no other team can. And a lot of players are going to scoop that up while they still can.

I also think it's fascinating that when we knew the cap was going to go up, I and I think some other people wondered, are we going to see a trend of top players, is maybe embracing the idea of taking short to medium term deals to position themselves in, you know, three or four years time when the cap is well over $100 million to then cash in for another big long-term extension to try and maximize their earnings. I think we could look at Evan Bouchard doing that where I believe it was a four-year deal for him at 10 and a half per. And he's positioned himself in a terrific spot where he's going to be 30 years old.

He's going to continue to pile up a ton of points as long as he's quarterbacking a team with McDavid and Drysettle on it. And presuming he shakes off this rough start and gets back to being the player that he is, he's going to cash in on that. However, that's been the exception rather than the general trend because you look at Natchez taking eight years, Marner taking eight,

even Ranton when he went to Dallas, immediately resigning for eight, just down the list. really the only star among these recent extensions who hasn't gone long term is McDavid. And he's obviously doing that because he wants the flexibility of giving himself an opportunity to play on a team that has a long window to win. It's not because he's trying to maximize his earnings. And I think it's reflective of players, even the very top ones, that can still feel

very confident about their ability to produce in the future prioritizing the guaranteed money. and even just the mental side of never having to think about that contract stuff again, you protect against the injury risk. You don't have to deal with the pressure of playing in a contract year again, the media storylines, the speculation. I think we've learned that top players really prefer this piece of mind of if I'm in a spot and I'm happy with the team trajectory and my personal fit and I'm still going to get paid top dollar on a long-term deal,

especially with that extra eighth year that you can still take advantage of now, they're very happy to take that rather than rolling the dice where you might might make a lot more but you're incurring a little bit more of a risk and you're going to have to deal with all those other factors I just mentioned. Yeah, I do wonder, you know, the UFA class is so thin on talent for July 1st that it's going to be tough to drum up any excitement about that. I do wonder though, and this might be. a fun story for you down the line is this window that we're going to have that's going to be so

unique to the circumstance between July 1st and September 16th when the new CBA kicks in where there's going to become a whole lot of players who are eligible for an extension a year out from hitting free agency and they're going to have essentially two and a half months or so to sign a deal under these current provisions before that changes and some of the structuring with the eighth year and the signing bonuses. and the front loading is going to become more difficult to manage. And so whether it's just activity of them signing with their current situation or whether it's being made available and going elsewhere where they ultimately want to wind up,

I imagine that sort of deadline, and we know the deadlines force action in this league, I feel like that's going to be as good of one as we've had in a while. Yeah, it's going to be so fun to watch. And it's something that, I mean, to a certain degree with Quinn used in Vancouver, it's already become a storyline and I imagine there are going to be a ton of other players in a similar spot where teams are going to be forced to make decisions and like I can't remember the last time just generally speaking teams have been so motivated to extend players as soon as they're eligible in the past I think there's been more of a wait and see approach

but even for Vancouver with some of their other extensions that they took care of this the summer with signing Connor Garland, I believe, to a six times six, and Thatcher Demko to an eight and a half times three, I believe it was. I think that was partially motivated as well by just wanting to have cost certainty so that you can plan your cap sheet years in advance. And I think just having that cost certainty in general is going to be something that team's value, especially mid to smaller markets when the cap climbs to a point where owners might give you an internal budget. And like one idea that was loaded to me was if you're

like a mid to smaller market team, you might, like an owner might give you a window of you have, I don't know, 400 million to spend over the next four years. And let's say the cap is, I don't know, 120 million in a few years. You can allocate those funds however you want year by year, but this is the total you have to work with over a duration of years. And now it's up to you. And that's where teams might need to be very strategic about what's your window to win, what are the years where you can actually spend to the ceiling?

And that would require thoughtful planning years in advance. And that's why it's valuable to lock eyes up as soon as possible. So you have a clear blueprint for that kind of planning. All right, buddy. Well, that was good stuff. Always fun chatting with you on these Fridays, looking forward to next weeks already. I'll let you plug some stuff here on the way out.

What do you want to let the listeners know about? Yeah, just today I had a fun deep dive on some of the rookies in this class, more the under radar guys, like the Ben Kindles and Gritzhooks in the league, combining video and data. And then next week, at some point, I think I'll be dropping that reported piece on just some of the different market dynamics, some of the winners and losers essentially of the direction of the cap and how it's going to affect the league in different player classes. All right, buddy.

Good stuff. As always, if you are a regular listener of the PDO cast and you're listening right now, you're going to want to subscribe to our Patreon page to get access to all of our shows moving forward. We had a couple on the Patreon feed this week. One was breaking down similar to what Harmon was talking about these rookies. We had Jack Han on. We talked about guys like Kendall and Gritschuk and Emmett Finney and Matthew Schaefer certainly and the start to their NHL careers.

And then we also had a bit of a longer form conversation about the Marty Nature's extension, Thomas Harley, Logan Cooley, their extensions as well and broke all those down with John Mattis. So get in there and join us moving forward. Give us a five-star review wherever you listen. And that is all for another week of shows. I hope everyone has a great weekend. We'll see you back here first thing Monday. morning with our usual Sunday special with Drans.

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