The Hockey PDOcast - TB’s Big Swing, Rantanen Rumours, Devils Injuries, and Oilers Needs

Episode Date: March 6, 2025

Dimitri Filipovic is joined by Harman Dayal to break down the most interesting mid-week storylines of trade deadline week. They unpack the big trade the Lightning made, what the Hurricanes are doing with Mikko Rantanen, the Devils injuries, and the Oilers needs. If you'd like to gain access to the two extra shows we're doing each week this season, you can subscribe to our Patreon page here: www.patreon.com/thehockeypdocast/membership If you'd like to participate in the conversation and join the community we're building over on Discord, you can do so by signing up for the Hockey PDOcast's server here: https://discord.gg/a2QGRpJc84 The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

since 2015. It's the Hockey P.D.O.cast with your host, Dmitri Filipovich. Welcome to the Hockey P.DioCast. My name is Demetri Filippovich. And joining me on Trade Deadline Week here is my good buddy Harmon Dile. Harmon, what's going on, man? Excited for deadline week. excited for all the fireworks that have been happening. I think there was, in my mind, at least, some level of, like, my expectations were tampered. I wasn't expecting too many big splashes in the lead up to this deadline, but I think it's been spicier than I anticipated. It has. And we are, as a recording, we're just under 24 hours now out from the trade deadline.

Today, we're going to kind of focus on a bit of a midweek update on some of the trades that have happened already. We're going to focus more so on that sort of stuff as opposed to speculating on what could happen by Friday because news could break at any moment. It could become outdated. and we want it to still be fresh and relevant by the time people listen to today's show. If you want a kind of more wide-ranging speculative trade talk, the most recent show we did here in the PEOCast feed was a two-parter trades we'd like to see with Thomas Drans and Jack Fraser that you could listen to if you haven't already to kind of help get you ready for Friday's festivities. But it's a godsend for us that we got the lightning trade on Wednesday that we did because I think

that's a natural starting point for us here to dissect and break down. We're going to bounce around after that and cover a bunch of other different storylines and subplots and things we've seen so far. But let's start with that lightning deal where they acquire Oliver Burk Strand and Yankee Gord from the Cracken. They pay a pretty hefty price in futures. They give up a 2026 first, a 2027 first, both of those top 10 protected, a 2025 second and a 2025-fourth going into Detroit to help get Gord at only 25%. includes also my Kia Sabana, I should say, going to the Cracken. We're going to obviously focus on this through the Lightning perspective. I did want to give a quick note on the Cracken part of this.

I think kudos to Ron Francis, who has been perpetually stuck in limbo during his executive career and would never be described as proactive. In this case, striking a deal like this where he lumps two guys together that are intriguing assets to maximize the return, gets back a nice package of futures. I'd love to see him double down and go in this direction even further and maybe do so with McCann and Alexiac. Obviously, he's going to trade Brandon Tanev as well. Maybe Jane Schwartz retained.

There's a bunch of fun stuff that he could do to really maximize the return here and get the crackin finally moving into the right direction. But this was at least a promising start for him because I think we keep waiting for Ron Francis to finally do something or pick a path for the Cracken to go into. And at least this is a nice first step, I guess, for them. Yeah, for a long time, I've been,

sort of confused in trying to understand the blueprint for the crack and I sort of understand it to some extent where they're trying to build through the draft as well while still being competitive. It's like they want both things at the same time in terms of building for the future and being relatively competitive for the playoffs today. But in picking, in prioritizing two things at the same time, they haven't done either one particularly well. And they've been kind of stuck in this mushy middle. So first of all, I was kind of surprised that Seattle took such a decisive, proactive step. And I think it's good for them to decisively step in one direction, hopefully build towards the future

because I think we could all look at this current Seattle core and come to the conclusion and realization that while they have some decent pieces, they just don't have enough true top of the lineup star power to really have a team that can consistently make the playoffs. Yeah, the sooner they get around to building up a higher volume of young, fast, cheap players to play alongside baneers and right and what we've seen from them this year moving forward is going to be the better. And so, you know, they've been stuck in the snowman's land. They were 25th in point percentage last year. They're 28th this year. And so finally doing something like this is nice to see.

From the lightning perspective here, I thought Julian Breezebaugh had a number of interesting quotes after this. The one that really struck me was he says, I'd rather have a lineup full. a good players than a ton of draft picks because ultimately we're trying to win hockey games. And that's exactly what he's doing here. I think, you know, he had obviously a couple home runs in terms of Hegel and Coleman as well in the past. The most recent time he did this with Tanner Genoa a couple deadlines ago was obviously a massive whiff on their part where they essentially traded a full draft worth of draft

capital for a guy who wound up being a fourth liner that they had to dump and just never got out of him what they were hoping for after he had that one really nice season in Nashville. but I still think the logic behind that it was sort of a miss from a player evaluation perspective, but I think the logic was still sound and the process was sound nonetheless, and that's exactly what he's getting at here, right? I think he really grasps the fact that the perceived value of quote unquote first round picks, that sort of sticker shock and how teams value those is one of the most overrated currencies in the sport, especially when you're talking about picks that are in the back half of the first round,

just the likelihood for an organization like the lightning, that a player you take 26th overall or whatever is going to be able to meaningfully contribute within the window you have here is just so low that getting guys who can help you and also in Bjorksrand's case with the 5.4 million tag next year as well help you for multiple runs is such a massive win right and so I think you and I both really love the fit of both these players we're going to break down how that's going to look on this lightning forward group but I just think the logic here itself is really sound and I think Breezebaugh did a really nice calculated

a job of targeting guys like this and then paying whatever price necessary even if on the surface it seems like it was pretty rich yeah i mean this is the the tampa model right is they zero in on what they believe is they're perfect or ideal fit slash target and they're willing to pay the hefty price to go out and uh and acquire that guy and more often than not they've been um they've been right this isn't the first time they've um paid a premium price for a player and And, you know, maybe people in the hockey world have sort of raised their eyebrows and, ooh, that seems expensive. But more often than not, it works out. And really, I thought for a while, I mean, now that Tampa's made these two trades, they're back on the map as true contenders in the eyes of most people.

But for most of the first half of the season, I really felt like the lightning were sort of being slept on as dark horse contenders because Andre Vasselowski had bounced back. And when you look at the, I think last year was when people started to think, oh, the dynasty is sort of coming to an end where Tampa's gone from being this perennial cup contender to, okay, they're good enough to make the playoffs, but are they good enough to actually make some noise? And that's where when you compare last year to this year, they've had Andre Vasselovsky bounce back, which is massive. Sorelli and Hegel have hit a completely new level, Sorrelli especially, which has given them another sort of elite. line behind the uh you know behind kutrov and point and in letting stamb coast go and bringing genselin they've overall been able to really solidify their five and five play they've been massive uh gains in how well they control play at uh at even strength and so now when you look at the age of of some of their core pieces as well especially on the blue line where victor headman is 34 years old

ryan mcdonna is 35 years old this is the window you don't have forever to win with these guys and when I look at Bjork Strand and Gord, it's massive for fleshing out their top nine. You could argue if you bump, and I know Bjork Strand isn't originally projected to play on that second line, it sounds like they're going to give Bjorksand and Gord a first look together on the third line.

But if they do commit to Bjorksend on that second line with Sorrelia and Hagle, all of a sudden you're arguably looking at the best top six in the NHL. And Breeswell had an interesting interview earlier, this year, right? It was kind of when they were at their nadir in terms of the standings and he was talking about how all of the underlying indicators in terms of measuring their performance

didn't really reflect where they were at the standings. They were kind of hovering around the playoff bubble and that was a big talking point at the time. We've been covering that on this show every step of the way where he was exactly correct in that. You look up now after they've won nine of their past 10 games. Their third in the league, goal differential

at plus 58. Offensively, their first and goal scored, second and interslot shots, second and expected goals generated defensively, their fifth and goals against top 10, unexpected goals against and inner slot shots allowed. Vasilevsky, as you mentioned, since the Christmas break has a 9-36 say percentage and has really turned back the clock after an abbreviated year last year following his offseason surgery. And they're in a fascinating spot the rest of the season, right?

Because they're duking it out for first in the Atlantic with the Panthers. They're in-state rival and the Toronto Maple Leafs. They are three points back with both. they've got a game in hand on both of them. And you look at their schedule particularly, which was really difficult at the start of the year and maybe why they were lower in the standings, it looks pretty favorable and soft the rest of the way for them. 16 of their final 21 games are against teams that aren't locked into a playoff spot right now. And we can talk maybe more about this later on once we finish this conversation.

But I feel like the incentive to get out of that first round playoff matchup, win division, play a wildguard team instead, let those two other teams battle it out in round one, wear themselves out and then finally play them in round two is a massive incentive here for all of these teams but you know we saw florida go out and inquire set jones i'm sure we're going to see the maple leaves respond with some sort of a trade here between now and friday's deadlines to improve their team and so for those teams i feel like the advantage of winning the division is about as high as as any current sort of um race yet to come here down the stretch a hundred percent i mean there's some years where winning the division doesn't really matter but this is

is probably the exact opposite. If you can end up winning the Atlantic and playing a wildcard team as opposed to having to run into Florida or Toronto in round one, that's going to be massive because oftentimes the playoffs are about attrition as well.

And I mean, if Florida and Tampa end up having to duke it out, for example, in round one, that, like, whatever team wins, you have to imagine that that'll be a long, hard, physical series. that will have implications for the team that advances even further down in terms of the hard miles that they've accumulated.

So it sets up this extremely interesting race, which it's funny too because it's not just Tampa that's red hot. Florida's been red hot. And the Leafs, I know they've lost a couple of games recently, but for the most part, over the last 10ish games or so as well, they've generally been winning a lot too. So this is set up to be, for me, down the stretch, one of the most interesting storylines to track. Let's unpack that forward group and kind of what it looks like and what our expectations are. I know you mentioned sort of the initial look.

They're going to trot out. I imagine part of that is just the familiarity with York Strand and Gord coming from Seattle and easing them in. And then eventually they're actually going to unveil whatever the final finished product is heading into the postseason. But the way I see it, I mean, you've got Gensel Point and Kutraub on line one. And I had Dom on to end last week, and he made a really salient point about how John Cooper, his usage of the forwards this year, is not necessarily been like revolutionary. It makes a lot of sense.

Pretty much everyone that's armed with these pieces should be doing that, but he's still actually been executing it in the sense that instead of the typical rotation where you're just kind of rolling out your lines and you go first line, second line, third line, then you bring your fourth line out and then you kind of do it all over again. He's instead sort of sequencing it. So he's getting the absolute most value out of the top two lines, right? He's pretty much cycling them every other shift and then mixing in the third and fourth line. Maybe that'll change now that he actually has more pieces and he isn't relying on kind of depth guys who are maybe being overextended a little bit. But just the thought of using line one in offensive zone starts with headman, for example, then you bring out those dogs on line two and especially if Bjorks right is playing with Hagle and Sorrelli. And you have those guys kind of working and controlling the neutral zone shifts with McDowell. Dona and Chernak.

And then you got a third line with Gord and Nick Paul. And I would include, you know, he's not on the team right now because he's playing, getting some HL reps over the past month or so. But I feel like Connor geeky in terms of what we saw early in the year from him and sort of his, his body type and some of the skills he's already flashed. He's a very interesting player for me to track in terms of coming in and making up a postseason impact and really getting himself on the national radar. And then you've got a fourth line with, you know, less glamorous players like

Ergens and Zinland Denning, but they play a very specific role. They're going to eat up and mop up defensive zone starts. I think they've played 600 minutes this year at 5-1-5. There's been 30 goals, or less than 30 goals total score at either than the ice. So nothing's happening, and that's exactly what you want from them. And so now it sets this very clear and distinct hierarchy for them and eliminates a lot of the blind spots or potential weak links that they had in the lineup. And I think that's part of the logic and the reason why they're willing to pay the premium here, not to just get one guy, but get both of them to address a lot of their needs. Yeah, and I like the mix of identity that they have throughout their top, top nine,

where that Kuturov point against the line is, they're so dynamic off the rush. In zone, the level of East-West movement they get because of Kuturav's genius playmaking is brilliant, like genuinely one of the most entertaining lines to watch in, in the NHL as far as their creativity, their Puck movement, it's poetry on ice but then to on top of that with your second and third lines have this mix of two-way intelligence high motor of defensive responsibility guys who can also score a lot right that's those are the boxes that hegel checks that sirelli checks that bierk strand checks where bork strand isn't just productive at five-on-five he's he's a play driver he's responsible defensively

he's going to mesh really well with whatever matchups and assignments, you know, he gets if he's on the second line. Gord doesn't have the same offense that he used to in the past, but the defense responsibility is still there. He's such a pest to play against the speed and the energy. Nick Paul is a big body who is a nuisance in front of the net, and again, bring some of those same defensive qualities. So that middle six is just when I'm thinking about a playoff series,

so difficult to play against. they can kind of do everything. They're so versatile. And it just, it gives John Cooper so many different options for how he can strategically pick out his matchups and put different lines in highly specific positions to succeed. I love that note about how stylistically unique and distinct, especially, you know, the top line compared to the middle six and maybe even on the fourth line is in terms of. fill in their roles, but also how difficult it could be to match up against in a series, because you really have to make sure that you have the right guys out there, and especially in the home games where Cooper can kind of creatively sneak the top line on, for example,

it's going to be really difficult to actually ensure that you're getting away with that. You know, Burek Strand, I think part of the charm here is the utility certainly is a right child. We've been talking about how, especially on the first unit power play, they were craving that particular handedness. You watch their most recent loss against the Panthers in Florida, and they probably would have won that game if they were just able to convert on a few of their early powerplay opportunities and there were a number of times where in typical Tampa fashion they would fling the puck around the zone

kind of pick apart the opposing PK and then all of a sudden who would wind up on Mitchell Chafee's stick around the net and he'd get stopped by Bobrovsky and then all of a sudden now Bjork Strand who only has four power play goals playing for the Crack and Power Play this year I wouldn't be shocked at all if he steps into that role and doubles that by season's end in just the last 20 games or so he plays for this team

So I love that. He's such an underrated player. I mean, people who listen to the show, we've been talking about him for years. It's not necessarily new for them. But I think people are generally nationally going to gain an added appreciation for his skill set because he's just so well-rounded. If he is playing with Higel and Sorelli, we know how they attack off the rush and how their speed can be devastating. He'll fit right in there as another option as a puck transporter.

He loves to carry it through the neutral zone, playmaking off the rush. He'll add that. And then obviously a bit of a finisher. finishing touch is a shooter as well next to those guys. And the other note, I think you and I brought this up when we were talking about the CBA and the rising cap and how it could benefit some teams, the lightning where a team we referenced as one who has all their guys signed. And so all of a sudden, with the cap going up 7.5 million next year, they could just essentially

add another player into that slot without having to subtract or worry about paying guys this summer or next. And so all of a sudden, York Strand kind of fits that spot in their lineup perfectly where they can just absorb his 5.4 million next year, and he can provide value for them there. So I love the Björchran fit, especially I think he was the main driving force here for them. I get the Gord ad as well,

just because of the reunion storyline, giving Nick Paul another sort of menace on that line to hound opposing pot carriers and give him a legitimate player to play with. That's all well and good. You know, his Gord's production in particular has been diminished over the past year and a half or two. some of that age where he's probably not the same player he was before.

Some of it is just the team he was on. I imagine dropping his minutes a little bit here and being a bit more selective. We'll get more out of him to go along with whatever energy boost you get back from being in Tampa again and playing in a playoff run. The last time we saw Gord in a postseason setting, we tend to lionize his performances on that third line for the lightning during their cup years. You go back and watch it. He was so good during that crack and run two years ago where they were a hard. matching him against McKinnon's line in round one. He was playing against Rupert Hintz in that seven game series

around two and he was an absolute force defensively. And so that's another nice little piece here. And yeah, I mean, I could do a full show on just this forward group because it's set up so nice. And on paper at least, it looks like a perfect combination of skills. Yeah, and with Bjorkschen as well, he fits into that tier of player that in my opinion gets maybe underrated around the hockey world just because if you pull up his hockey DB page,

it's not as if his point totals stand out and really jump off the page. He's not like a 60, 70 point type of guy. But the reason for that is because outside of last season, he's not really been much of a power play producer. He's one of those players that creates a lot five on five. And that style of player is never really going to be a huge point producer So despite how much value they bring it at even strength. And so when you look at Bjork strands,

when you dive deeper into his profile, he's a player that has produced even strength points at a first-line caliber rate, despite not having these like monster mega, you know, 70-point seasons. So he's going to be huge for them at 5-on-5. I'm curious to see how it fits on the man advantage as well. Maybe that's an area where if you combine the two, he maybe will be a more prolific point.

point producer, but I think he's just such a well-rounded player that helps in so many different ways, is so versatile in terms of the fit and how you could use him throughout the lineup. And I really believe he's the type of player that I think will be easy for linemates to build chemistry with just because he can be effective in so many different little ways. Yeah, he's such a complimentary player where he just adds on and stacks on what you're doing already. And, you know, one of my concerns about this team, and still is because they obviously didn't address it in this trade, is just the foot speed of the blue line and whether in a

playoff series, a strong forechecking team can sort of get them stuck in the mud by just causing turnovers and disruptions and not letting them get cleanly out of the zone. They didn't address that here. But by adding these two forwards, this is a team that's already going to rely so much on their forward group to kind of just cover ground on the ice, do a lot of the heavy lifting in terms of puck transportation and maybe defensively make life a little bit easier for for their defensemen. And so I think they accomplish that here. I still have some concerns heading into the playoffs about that back end, but they did about as well in in covering for compensating for it here as they could have.

The final piece I have on the lightning here is, you know, you talk about the motivation and then being sort of in this window. They're coming off this stretch where, as you mentioned off the top, there was a lot of talk about them sort of being past their prime, kind of being out of that contention. window back to back first round exits with only i believe three wins in the past two years in the postseason against the leaps and then the panthers last year staring down the potential of round one match up against one of those two teams again the idea that you could lose in the first round for three straight years and then what the conversation could be like there the ages of the players

whether it's headman kuturaw who was in his 30s vasilevsky as well i'd add even the the john cooper element here right where i believe he signed an extension that covers him or keeps him on the job through the end of next year. But this is a coach who has been by far the longest 10-year coach in the league. He's been there since March 2013. It's almost a decade longer than the fifth longest tenure coach, Marty St. Louis, in the league right now. And so you would get to a point where if you didn't aggressively go in this direction and do something, another first round exit, maybe a postseason miss entirely.

And then all of a sudden, I feel like just the entire organizational outlook and our perception of them changes. And that's fine if you want to go in that direction. but I feel like considering how well they played, this was the type of calculated risk you should be taking. And so we commend them for that. And I think it's ultimately a home run regardless of the price you paid. Do you have any other notes on it from any of these sides or just kind of the logic of it in general?

The other thing I'll just add is I think this is the year for a lot of teams where they should be going for it in the sense, especially when you have a bit of a limited window like Tampa because there is no, there is no quote unquote perfect team on. paper. There isn't like a clear, you look at every contender on the NHL and there are flaws and holes you can pick with each one of them. I think that's been true for the last couple seasons as well, which is different than let's say 2022, where Colorado clearly going into that season looked like

the best team on paper. They ended up winning the Stanley Cup or even Tampa themselves when they had that stretch where they won those back-to-back cups. They were so clearly viewed as the best team in the NHL. Their lineup was ridiculously stacked. There were no perceived weaknesses or flaws. And it's just last year the cup window felt like it was pretty wide open. This year, the cup field feels pretty wide open where I think the betting markets have had, for example, the Oilers is as favorites for a while. But we can clearly see that even the Oilers are a team that have a lot of flaws and have been scuffling lately. I have question marks surrounding them. So for Tampa to go all in, the path for them is there, especially as you see another team out in the east, the Devils, that I think we may be viewed as Dark Horse Cup contenders this year.

They get hammered by injuries and now of a sudden their odds of going deep in the postseason are severely diminished as well. Yeah, I think that's a concept we're going to keep coming back to. In fact, even on today's show, as we get into part two, we're going to cycle that back. We're going to talk about the Devils a little bit. I want to mix in the hurricanes and Ranchon as well because that's been dominating a lot of the coverage of this year's deadline. But let's take our break here after finishing up the Tampa Bay section. And when we come back, we'll jump right back in all of that. You're listening to the Hockey P.D.O. cast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.

All right, we're back here on the Hockey P.D.O. cast joined on this Thursday by our pal, Harmon, Dile. Harm, before we went to break, we're talking about the lightning and their perspective on the big move they made this week and the logic behind striking while the iron's hot in terms of the opening in the east. I think it's a natural segue for us to talk about the storyline that's been sort of dominating this. entire week in this trade season. And that's the smoke around Miko Randinen, um, you know, his lack of willingness, I guess, to commit right now to a deal to stay in Carolina, how that's potentially open the door for them to at least poke around and kind of canvas the league about interest in, especially at if he's retained at 2.3 million on the market, whether they could get back and recoup and whether that could help them more than Randinen. And I want

to preface this by saying that anything could happen, right? It's kind of silly season in the NHL, you know, the initial acquisition of him to Carolina in the first place sort of came out of left field and surprised us. The hurricanes are known to operate differently than pretty much every other team in the league. They beat to their own drum. And so, you know, anything could happen. And the insiders certainly are portraying it as a very realistic possibility. From all the conversations I've had, everyone I've talked to, just kind of applying a little bit of my own critical thought to it. I personally don't believe that that's a realistic outcome here in terms of them flipping him for the deadline and moving on for a variety of reasons. But the main one for me

that I just can't get my head around is this is a team that's been in this contending window for however many years now has fallen short for well documented and obvious reasons in terms of offensive ability in some of these series against good goalies. And you look up, you were mentioning how the Oilers have been sort of the prohibitive favorite this year on the betting market, all of a sudden, you look at Dom's model of the athletic. He's got the hurricanes at 14% which is the cup favorite. The market actually has them right now tied in a dead heat with the Panthers for a cup favorite after the oiler's recent skid.

And so with the east opening up, the Atlantic teams are poised to beat each other up in the first two rounds. Their upcoming path looks like it's going to be one of either New Jersey, who's incredibly banged up and we're going to speak more about, or this really fun young Blue Jackets team that's obviously flawed in a variety of different ways and probably isn't ready this year and then a round two match up against either Washington who's unproven and still kind of questionable in terms of their contender status or a potential wildguard team if they have the upset against the capitals in round one that's about as good of a or a clean of a path as you can

describe heading into the final four and getting back to the conference finals and so this idea that they would trade randonin I guess they could get back a package if he agreed to extend with whatever team he went to where it would actually help them in terms of right now but ultimately I don't really see a path where they can make a trade where I would feel better about their cup odds this season compared to just keeping him. And so that's why I think for all this chatter about it, it just doesn't really make sense to me. Yeah, I think it was Pierre LeBron who also reported that the Keynes haven't yet given permission to teams to talk to Rantan, which sort of diminishes the odds of the sign and trade possibility where potential buyers could look at Rantan as

not just peer rental, but as well, he could be able to be able to. long-term fit for us, which I think puts the canes in a tough spot if they're trying to flip him for a return that actually makes sense. Because if potential buyers are viewing rent and in as a peer rental, they're probably not going to give you a whole lot. And if anything, they're going to be more amenable to departing ways with futures, which futures, what uses that to Carolina. They're contending this year. And if you're Carolina and you're asking buyers to give you, and now pieces, I struggle to think that you're going to get anybody back who's, for example, as good as Barty Natchez, what you originally gave up for Rantan.

And so for all those reasons, I'm sort of with you where I think the canes should probably lean towards keeping Rantan and riding it out more so just because I think it's difficult to see a path where they can actually swing a trade that nets enough value given the uncertainty of, well, Ranton doesn't really seem willing to sign an extension. With Carolina, what confidence would a buyer have that he'd extend with them, given that the Cains haven't given permission to teams to talk to Rantanin's camp? Yeah, they shouldn't have any. And, you know, I'd argue that the hurricanes shouldn't have any preconceived notions

hitting in either because he sort of telegraph his intentions that he wants to maximize his earning power, hit the open market. he did so in his conversations with Colorado, and that's why this trade happened in the first place, and so Shukup is no surprise that that's still where he's at. I mean, the idea that get back a player that could help them more now than Randkin does seems hard to believe. I think their biggest need, actually,

despite all of the recurring issues with offensive efficiency and turning shots into goals, is probably first pair, right, D, because you watch these games, and with increasing frequency, Rand Burns is just struggling to keep up. and has become a liability. That's probably something you would address more so in the off season. And you look at their cap as well. And even if like,

let's say they did a deal where they retained on Renton and their ability to take back a contract for a player that could help them right now with a big cap hit is next to none because they're so tight up against the cap. So it would probably have to include Kotkin Yamis cap hit or some sort of a bigger deal. And that seems less feasible. And the idea, like this is an organization that's going to put a value on everyone and is going to certainly always keep a door open for just accumulating assets so that they can strike later and turn that into something else.

And so the possibility for that exists. But you look, and they're already without, let's say they just played this out and ran and walked, it would be a tough look just because it's such a short window if you don't win a cup and you gave up Natchez's Drury and two picks for this limited run. Yet they're still going to be in such a good position this offseason, right? Like they're going to have nearly 40 million in cap space with all the money coming off the books. They've gotten to Keishan coming in, hopefully after years of speculation on that's going to happen. A pretty much full set of picks and prospects.

Like the world is their oyster on the market in terms of striking whatever deal they want without any added assets or flexibility. So I feel like it's decidedly in the direction of just kind of try to win a cup this year, get over the hump and deal with the consequences later for them. The reason why I find this story interesting, though, is because, you know, I was speaking with a variety of different executives and people that aren't involved with the situation at all. And their thesis or, I guess, idea for what's going on here and why it's kind of befuddling both the market and the insiders is this idea that this is holding up the market, right? And I think there's certainly an element of that because Ranton is clearly the best player theoretically available. teams want to keep their powder dry and keep their assets in place in case they could potentially acquire them and not box themselves in and take themselves out of that conversation. And so you get to guys like Besser or other wingers that we know are UFAs and could be on the move. And it feels like there's no traction with a lot of those components just because everyone is sort of waiting for this.

And so the thesis is that the hurricanes are kind of an amacabillion way, not only holding up the market to sort of limit their competitors options, but also I think, using this as an interesting opportunity to sort of gather intel on teams ahead of the off season, right? Because we know that the cap's going to go up. Everyone's expecting there's going to be so much player movement this summer. And so this is giving the Keynes a sort of interesting path towards, I guess, kind of figuring out where some of these teams are at in terms of how they value their players, whether guys could potentially be pride free or shake loose in the off season and just gathering as much intel on them as they can and almost using rant and in these talks as a bit of a Trojan horse to get in the door and sort of get a peek under the hood at some of these

teams internally. So I don't know. I love that. Maybe it's not as deep as that, but I do think that makes a lot of sense based on everything we know about the hurricanes in their front office. Yeah, especially the gathering intel part and having an understanding of how teams operate. I've not exactly in this way. It's a sort of different concept, but similar to this idea of, of, um,

of being a little bit deceptive about how you gather intel. I've had conversations with current and former general managers. I wrote a story, I think it was a couple years ago, around how trades are completed in the NHL. And one theory that sort of cropped up was this idea that sometimes when GMs are calling teams, they'll have a particular target they actually have in mind.

But before they get to that, you know, actual plan A guy, they might shoot for a different player on that roster or, you know, an even, um, uh, uh, an even higher caliber player. And the idea there is, is once that, uh, once that GM or once that team tells you, oh, no, that guy's not available. Then you almost frame it as like a checkdown of your ideal plan A guy. You're able to go, well, you're almost able to, in your mind as, as the buying GM, you've got this plan A guy. But, you've approached conversations in a way where you're able to frame it as really more a plan B guy. I don't know if I did a great job of explaining that,

but the idea being there is a lot that goes on in terms of, you know, GMs and teams being crafty about how they try and, you know, gather intel. And it is revealing, right? Because if you're the canes and you're potentially dangling ransing it around the league, you're going to get a good idea of, you know, you might be surprised by what team. mex, what type of player they're dangling, even if it's around the thesis of, well, if we're able to talk to Ranton's camp and we're able to come to terms on an extension, this guy we might dangle in a random deal. And for the canes, you might go, oh, that's super, super interesting.

We wouldn't have thought internally that that guy might have been available and you're able to learn a lot about teams, motives and interactions ahead of the offseason. So that is really interesting. I hadn't thought of that angle. Yeah, I think there's a certain element of disguising your intentions. I mean, it's pretty obvious that, you know, if you just directly and expressly contact a team and you say, oh, I'm very interested in this particular player, all of a sudden, you've put yourself behind the eight ball a little bit in terms of leverage because they know you're interested. You're probably going to be willing to pay more to make it happen. And so all of a sudden, now the dynamic has changed, whereas in this case, they're sort of using this a bit of a prelude and

just gathering like, all right, well, come this summer when we have that 40 million in cap space, and we have picks and prospects all of a sudden, maybe we can revisit this. We know this team isn't necessarily completely attached to this player that we otherwise might have thought, and it gives them a unique window into their insight. So I do like that element quite a bit. You know, it's almost the Devils and the East opening up

and the Devils right now, at least as the standings sit, are Carolina's most likely first round opponent. And you and I did a show last week. We were talking a lot about the value for the devils of sitting tight and holding on to both Nemitz and Casey and playing the long game. They're pretty down bad right now, unfortunately. Since we chatted, they had a series of excruciating losses most recently, the one in Dallas. You look, last 25 games.

They're 9, 13, and 3. Only the Blackhawks, Penguins, and Sharks have a worse point percentage. They've only scored 60 goals in those 25 games. Only the Canucks have scored less frequently than them for the year. year they're scoring 1.49 515 goals per 60 in their bottom six minutes without one of Hughes or his year out there, which is, you know, late 2010's oilers level of, of inefficiency in terms of your depth. And now compounding all that is one of those players who is their main and primary source of offense and driver for Jack Hughes is out for the year. Dougie Hamilton is out week to

week. Their margin for error has completely evaporated in the standings. There are only four points up on Columbus for third in the metro. Columbus has two games in hand. They have two head-to-heads coming here soon, so we'll see how that plays out. But I'm kind of curious for your take on, I know we said we wouldn't speculate too much about it, but we have seen the devils. You know, they've been in the news because of Jack Hughes being out for the year, him going on LTIR, the stories or the reports that they were still going to push forward in terms of

being buyers, acquiring players, not giving up on this season. We saw them trade for Brian Dumlin at a very hefty price, I thought. And so I'm curious for your take on kind of where they sit right now and how this sort of impacts, I guess, the dynamic both for them, but also the market and the east as a whole. Yeah, I was surprised by the Duman trade, to be totally honest. I get it where they need some extra defense of depth with Hamilton out, with Seagenthaler out. But a second and a prospect is a lot to give up for a defenseman who on a contending team is ideally a third pair guy. It also doesn't solve as you brought the numbers up. this team's offensive concerns, especially with Jack.

Now, I didn't really view the devils once all this injury news came out as a team that could go deep in the playoffs this year. And to me, they've got to be done as far as shopping for rentals like that at the bare minimum. They've already given up a premium hefty price for Dumlin. The next order of business, if they are adding, has to, of course, be to add some scoring punch, but even if you're going down that path, it has to be for a non-rental that you believe is an optimal sort of long-term fit. And that's where, you know, it is interesting to note that

the devil still have a fair amount of their draft capital left where they've still got two second round picks this year. They've got all their picks for next year and 2027. So they're pretty well stocked up in terms of draft capital. If they do want to push, although if I was in their position, I don't know if this is the year to really, even for non-rentals, be aggressive about how much you're willing to give up because looking at, for example, the price that Bjork Strand went for. And I know that Tampa operates in its own way. It's not that they're kind of the outlier as opposed to really setting market prices that other

teams sort of repeat. But after seeing what Bjorksend went for, what would, you know, Ricard Raquel, for example, you know, cost. And at that point, at that expensive of a price potentially, if I was the devil's, I just would look at all the injuries, especially Jack being done for the year, and kind of look at this is just not our year. And we've got a long window.

So as painful as it is, we're still in a position where we'll likely make the playoffs. But as far as actually contending for a Stanley Cup, this year is probably right off. Yeah, it's just hard to see them, especially in a round one series against the hurricanes, where the Keynes could just defensively load up on that Brat, Meyer, his sheer line, without Jack Hughes around, just cobbling together enough offense, would have already been difficult based on the way they've been playing this year. And now it seems like an insurmountable task.

I'd certainly have time for if they still decide to go the route of a Raquel or, you know, a Jared McCann or that type of player where it's like, all right, you know, they'll help you a little bit this year. So you're not necessarily just punting on the year because their guys have worked hard. and they certainly just don't want, you know, they don't want to send that message to them. But also it gives you multiple years a term with those guys at a very reasonable A.A.V. And the next year, you come back fully formed. And it's an entirely different conversation.

The reason why I still think they're kind of lingering here is because you look at how much money they have on LTIR and the pool they're working with there. And then the trade they did make already, you know, they did one move where they helped play a third party broker and the Trent Frederick treat, which you can talk about a little bit. I know that you did a trade grades for it on the athletic later. But they buy a prospect there. Then they do this Dumlin deal, which certainly was, you know, caught me out of completely off guard in terms of price because this was the guy who eight months ago went for a 2026 fourth going from Seattle to Anaheim. And then as a third pair of guy in my eye on a good team. And I know that, you know, the logic of, all right, well, we have a couple young right shot guys in Casey and Nemitz. Let's bring in a veteran lefty to kind of help them along the way.

I get that. That's totally fine with the injuries they have. But trading what they did and they had three, four, three seconds, give up one of them is pretty hefty in my mind. Now in that trade, what Anaheim did was they retained money on Dumlin and the devils aren't really in a position where they would have needed that. And so the fact that they paid a little bit more for that privilege makes me think that there's more coming on the way here. And so I'm kind of curious to see what they do here. But yeah, a lot of moving parts with them and it'll be fascinating to track. we got about 10 minutes or so left here. There's a couple of teams that I want to talk about. I want to talk about Vegas later. I wanted to talk about the Penguins Predators trade because this is the third deal we've seen now between Barry Trots and Caldubis since August, I believe, and it's a fascinating dynamic developing there.

And then I want to talk a little bit about the Oilers because we did see them make that Trent Frederick trade and you wrote about it. Maybe that one is most fresh on your mind and you want to start with that. But which of those three is most interesting to you? Yeah, let's start with, with the others one because I think they're in a really fascinating spot ahead of the deadline too.

And it feels like they have a few needs, right? Where people have wondered about the goaltending and the issue there has sort of been, who would be the ideal target, especially John Gibson. Durability has been a question mark and he exited the game last night against the Canucks. So he's probably off the board as a realistic option. There's been the blue line. there's been, you know, their secondary scoring. To bring in Frederick, it's interesting because he's a big-bodied guy who plays a greedy physical style.

The owner's forward group has, in my mind, lacks some of that sandpaper. The big question is, what type of offense can you realistically unlock from him? Because he's at a tough time this year. I think he only has 17 points in 57 games, something along those lines. But he did score 40 points last year. He had 17 goals two years ago. And it's especially fascinating on the, Oilers where ideally Frederick's third liner, but the Oilers haven't had great second line wing

options for Drysettle to play with. They've cycled through Podkoles and Arvets and Savoy most recently. And if I look at how much time facility Podkoleson has spent playing with Leon Drysettle in that sort of disruptor, four check, net front presence type of a role, then like the bar is just so low as far as what, like, how good you need to be. to get to get a look on that second line. And obviously, Frederick's still going to be out for a bit with injury. But when he does come back, you know, maybe they ease him into things with the bottom six role.

But I really wonder about is he eventually going to get a shot with dry settle? How does that fit look? Because they in my mind need that offensive punch from Frederick to justify the price that they paid. Yeah, I get the logic behind it, especially with the double retention. cheap. They certainly paid a pretty penny in terms of a second to fourth in the prospect to facilitate it. But this is a team that gets the puck in tight so much in terms of all these rebounds and kind of inner slot shots and dominating in the look at whatever the low post version of hockey is. And so I get just having a big body guy there, certainly a good retriever in terms of potentially

having some minutes with some of these skill players up front, a little bit of defensive value as well. All that makes sense. You just look at the number of holes. they have to plug and this might get decided for them with, you know, whatever the final ruling is on a Vanderkain status and whether he's going to be out for the year for the regular season and they can actually use that money or whether they can shed that contract and then use that money. We'll see what plays out there and maybe that's what binded them and push them in this

sort of more measured approach. But you talk about timelines and the conversation about the lightning of like paying whatever price to improve your odds this season and next season as well with Bork Strand. And the Oilers are probably the biggest example of that in terms of a team that's squarely in that position, right? This is the last year of Leandro Seidel at 8.5 million. He's going to be paid $14 million next year and beyond. You have one more year of Connor McDavid next year at $12.5 million, and then he'll probably go in the high teens on his next deal.

And they were one win away from the Cup last year. And so I'm sure they're still going to try to acquire a defenseman because they only have one Brett Kulag to go around to play in the bottom four with either nurse or Embers. But man, the idea of going into the playoffs with this combination in that Stuart Skinner and Calvin Picker and how much they've struggled. And I know that especially with a medical extension, there's not that many good options in terms of addressing that right now. But it feels like it's an incredibly wasted opportunity, right? For a team that still has a lot of holes, you can't cover them all with how little room they have and how much, how few assets they have to accomplish it. But they are still sitting on their 2026 first and second, their 2027 first and second. their 2027 first and second,

and maybe they're going to make more moves in the summer to use those and try to improve their team. But man, you look at what they did last off season, how they kind of box themselves in, where at the draft they trade their 2025 first for that up pick so they could pick at the end of the first. They sign Arvidson,

they sign Skinner, they re-up Henrique and spend $10 million on those three guys, and then now all of a sudden they have all these needs, and they're not really addressing them. Still a very good team that's going to be incredibly dangerous, I think still should be treated as a legitimate cup contender because of how good dry sidle and McDavid are and what they've proven. But it feels like a massive letdown or missed opportunity.

If this in combination with like whatever third pairing defensemen, whether it's like a Carson Sucy or whatever you want to name comes to the team, it just feels like it's not enough for when you compare to what the lightning did and how aggressive and proactive they've been to cash it on this window and kind of what the Oilers are doing by comparison. Yeah, it's interesting because in a vacuum, I looked at the Frederick thing, Frederick fit and went, he fits a need, but he has to, he has to be like the second or third best player you acquired the deadline. Like your shopping can't be done there. He can't be the big fish to bolster this group given the needs that, you know, before the deadline, before the Frederick trade ahead of this deadline, you could argue that they need. needed another top six forward. You could argue that they needed another another second pair

caliber defenseman, starting goaltender. Those are three potential core pieces that the Oilers have had sort of needs for. And while Frederick does help up front, he isn't quite a natural true talent top six guy. And that's where for me, it's going to be interesting with the cap uncertainty year round, Vander Kaine, how aggressive can they be about making another move ahead of the deadline where the others have outside of a third round pick this year, they don't have any of their picks in the first five rounds for 2025. So it's not as if they have a ton of powder dry left to make a significant splash. And so, yeah, we'll see. I'm, I'm interested. This is a team that their ceiling case is so interesting, but they so clearly have.

multiple flaws in this roster as well that need to, you're not going to be able to address all of them, but man, they need at least in my mind one more difference maker to add to this roster to at least bring this group closer to something that resembles a finished product. Yeah, certainly a more sizable difference maker in addressing one of those most obvious needs

that they still really haven't yet, even with that move. All right, we don't have time to talk about the penguins, Predators trade here today. It's Tommy Novak. He's my guy. So I really wanted to get into it. I think that's actually a really interesting one. It was one that certainly came out of left field amongst two teams that are obviously out of it this

season. I got a lot of texts from around the league of people being like, why did this happen? I've got a few notes on that, but we'll save it for Friday. So I'm going to be back on Friday with a two hours sort of recap. We'll do a full sweep of everything that happened and break all that more down at length

and harm. We got to get out of here. for today. I'll let you quickly plug some stuff here on the way out. What are you going to be doing for the trade deadline? Yeah, just reacting to whatever happens at the deadline. It's going to be interesting and I'll be writing about it over at the athletic. Awesome, buddy. We'll keep up the great work. We're going to have you on again soon. This is the time for anyone listening to join us in the PDO guest Discord. If you aren't there already, there's no better place to spend your entire Friday. We're going to be breaking down and reacting to every deal that happens there in real time and just talking through all the shenanigans all day.

So please join us. The invite link is at the show notes. Get in there and be part of the community. Happy trade headline to everyone. Enjoy your Friday. We'll be back a couple hours after it passes with a full two-hour show covering it all. So looking forward to that. Thank you for listening to the Hockey Ocast streaming on the Sportsnet Radio Network.